Author Topic: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd  (Read 45694 times)

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Offline Admin

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NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #-1 on: August 31, 2009, 03:20:25 PM »
Nishat Chunian Power Ltd.

http://www.nishat.net/nishat_chunian.htm

The Group Comprises of Nishat (Chunian) Limited as holding company and NishatChunian Power Limited as its wholly owned subsidiary. Nishat (Chunian) Limited is a public limited company incorporated in Pakistan under the Companies Ordinance, 1984 and is listed on the Lahore and Karachi Stock Exchanges. Its registered office is situated at 31-Q, Gulberg II, Lahore. The Company is engaged in business of spinning, weaving, dyeing, stitching, processing, doubling, sizing, buying, selling and otherwise dealing in yarn, fabric and made-ups made from raw cotton, synthetic fibre and cloth and to generate electricity for internal use.

Nishat Chunian Power Limited is an unlisted public limited company incorporated under the Companies Ordinance, 1984. The main object of the company is to set up and operate 200 MW power plant and to sell electricity to National Transmission and Despatch Company Limited. The Company has not started its commercial operation and hence no profit & loss accounts has been drawn for incorporation in group’s consolidated profit loss account. The expected project commissioning date is June 2010.

Keeping in view the energy crisis in the country, NCL has also ventured into the power business. With a capacity of 200 MW an Independent Power Plant (IPP) is being set up at 66 km Lahore Multan Road. The power plant costing US$ 235 million has an operational deadline of March 2010.

Wartsila Finalnd is the EPC contractor for the project. The Fuel Supply Agreement has been finalized with Shell Pakistan; the first such supply agreement in the history of Shell Pakistan.

The plant has been set up under a 25 year ‘take or pay’ agreement with WAPDA, who is bound to make capacity payments – which are backed by the Sovereign Guarantee of the Government of Pakistan.

PROVISIONAL LISTING OF NCPL

OPEN DATE 03-09-2009
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 08:49:00 PM by M&M »

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NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #-1 on: August 31, 2009, 03:20:25 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« on: March 26, 2010, 01:30:22 PM »
NCPL’s 200MW power plant was expected to come online by
the end of March, but due to some technical issues
on the part of EPC’s contractor Wartsila, the
Commercial Operations Date (COD) has been
postponed to mid-end May, 2010. However, Wartsila would
be liable to pay a daily penalty of €66k post Mar 31, 2010 until
the commissioning date capped at €13mn. This would provide
NCPL with the necessary cushion against its debt financing
expense as 80% of the project is funded via debt.

Dividend payout of Rs450-500mn in FY11
The management of NCPL informed that the company
expects to start paying dividends from FY11, with a payout of
Rs450-500mn (80-90%), on projected earnings of Rs500-
600mn.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2010, 11:28:58 AM »
NCPL Plant Update and Conference Call Takeaways
Nishat Chunian Power Limited (NCPL) is setting up a power generation project with 200MW gross and 195.26MW net capacity located in the vicinity of District Kasur near Lahore and would operate on Residual Furnace Oil (RFO). Although, the company had agreed a Commercial Operation Date (COD) of Jun31’10 with WAPDA for the plant, management had indicated its desire to commence its commercial operation from Mar31’10. The same was agreed with its EPC contractor WARTSILA with the later liable to pay liquidated damages (LD) to the tune of EUR 66,238/day in case of delay in the project. However, due to technical issues with the plant’s alternators, the project’s COD has been delayed by another 45-60 days. The management is optimistic about the end May deadline for the project, however, we remain skeptical. Our skepticism stems from the delay in Nishat Power Limited (NPL) build with almost the same specification. NPL has also seen its COD of Dec31’09 over-run by almost a quarter owing to similar technical issues with the alternators.

Dividend payout to begin in FY11
NCPL is expected to receive ROE payment in the region of PKR 550mn-600mn in FY11 as per the terms of the tariff agreed with WAPDA. The company has indicated its desire to payout approximately 90% of this payment to investors in the form of cash dividends. We anticipate the company’s FY11 payout in the vicinity of PKR 1.35 per share; at these levels, it translates into FY11E dividend yield of 13.5% as against FY11E dividend yield of 14.25% for IGI Universe Power Sector. 
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Offline AGz

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2011, 01:55:20 PM »
Farzooq Bhai need advice on NCPL
Aurangzeb A. Durrani
MSManiar Financials (Pvt.) Ltd.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2011, 10:33:47 AM »
ncpl eps 2.48
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2011, 11:27:51 AM »
NCPL – 9mo FY11 Earnings Preview

NCPL is scheduled to announce its 9mo FY11 results on Apr29’11. We expect the company to post earnings of PKR 604mn (EPS: PKR 1.64) in 3Q FY11, taking 9mo FY11 earnings to PKR 1,517mn (EPS: PKR4.13). A higher load factor at 89% during 3Q FY11 (2Q FY11: 82%) is set to prop up both fuel efficiency gains and & M gains resulting in a 22% QoQ jump in earnings for the IPP.
We have assumed that NCPL will utilize only ~44% of its allowed variable O & M costs during  the quarter, which gives us massive savings to the tune of PKR 146mn (EPS Impact: PKR 0.40 ) in 3Q alone.
As NCPL’s total borrowing exceeds total debt allowed in the tariff, the net positive impact of penal mark-up will be limited to PKR 51mn (EPS Impact: PKR 0.14) in 9mo FY11.
We have revised our FY11 earnings estimates up by 4% to PKR 6.10 per share, from PKR 5.90 incorporating the fixed O & M gains and penal markup income. The stock trades at attractive PE and PD multiples of 2.6x and 9.0x respectively and offers an upside of 13.5% to our Dec11 price target of PKR 18 per share. Moreover, NCPL offers a dividend yield of 11% at current levels taking the total stock return to 24.5%. BUY!

igi
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2011, 12:11:50 PM »
eps 4.17 dps 1
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Offline Poker Face

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2011, 06:45:45 PM »
If I had to choose between NPL and NCPL, I would have preferred NCPL.
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Offline Dr. Economist

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2011, 11:54:44 AM »
If I had to choose between NPL and NCPL, I would have preferred NCPL.

yh i agree, NCPL is good..

Offline STOCK.DEPENDENT

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2011, 12:35:26 PM »
If I had to choose between NPL and NCPL, I would have preferred NCPL.

yh i agree, NCPL is good..

why do some respected peoples think so? :dunno:

Offline Poker Face

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2011, 01:04:46 PM »
bcz I hope overall return to share holders will be more in NCPL as compared to NPL.
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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2011, 01:15:45 PM »
do you mean more upside potential? or better dividend? anyways, you have a good eye to look at stocks, i,ll switch to NCPL. ab khush? :laugh:
thank you :console:

Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2011, 06:48:22 PM »
3QFY11 EPS at PKR1.68: NCPL posted PAT of PKR618mn (EPS: PKR1.68), up 25% QoQ,
primarily on the back of increased penal interest income during the quarter. 9MFY11 PAT
stood at PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR4.17). The company also announced interim dividend of
PKR1/share.

Net penal markup income contributed PKR0.33/share to 3Q EPS: Net penal markup income
is estimated to have contributed PKR0.33/share to 3QFY11 EPS, as overdue receivables
were funded with 9MFY11 retained earnings. We expect net penal markup income for 4Q at
PKR150mn (PKR0.41/share).

O&M and fuel savings continued to prop up earnings: O&M savings for 3QFY11 are
estimated at PKR259mn (PKR0.71/share), up 7% QoQ as generation increased to 381Gwh at
load factor of 90%. We expect O&M savings for 4Q to stand at PKR250mn (PKR0.68/share).
Fuel savings is estimated to have contributed PKR0.31/share for 3Q at an estimated
efficiency of 46%.

Investment Perspective: With final dividend expected at PKR1/share, the scrip currently
offers dividend yield of 12% for FY11 and a real USD IRR of 16% over the remaining term of
the PPA. NCPL is currently trading at a P/E of 2.8x offering an upside of 23% to our DDM
based Dec?11 PT of PKR20/share.

NCPL FY11E FY12E FY13E
EPS (PKR) 6.02 6.31 6.63
DPS (PKR) 2.00 4.50 4.75
P/E (x) 2.70 2.58 2.46
Dividend Yield 12% 28% 29%
P/BV (x) 1.17 1.04 0.93
ROE 43% 40% 38%
Source: Elixir Research
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Offline Poker Face

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2011, 07:53:08 PM »
excellent investment for dividend. 4.5 for 2012
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Offline Roomi

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2011, 12:09:45 PM »
excellent investment for dividend. 4.5 for 2012
Which one? NPL or   NCPL?

Offline Dr. Economist

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2011, 06:30:29 PM »
excellent investment for dividend. 4.5 for 2012
Which one? NPL or   NCPL?

NPL

Offline stockist

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2011, 06:35:08 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2011, 11:52:34 AM »
NCPL - 3Q Earnings inline with expectations; TSR of 24% on Offer; BUY!

NCPL depicted earnings growth of 25% QoQ to post an EPS of PKR 1.68 in 3Q FY11, taking cumulative earnings to PKR 1,532mn (EPS: PKR 4.17) in 9mo FY11, inline with our expectations.

Following a surprise payout of PKR 1 per share along with the 9mo results, we have revised our full year DPS estimate up to PKR 2.25 per share from PKR 2.00 per share previously. NCPL trades at attractive FY11 PE and PD multiples of 2.75x and 7.3x respectively and offers a total stock return (TSR) of 24% for FY11. BUY!

A greater load factor (89%) coupled with higher average furnace oil prices (PKR 53,200 per ton; +11% QoQ) alleviated the impact of the marginally lower thermal efficiency during the quarter. Fuel savings contributed ~PKR 114mn to 3Q FY11 earnings (Per share impact of PKR 0.31 per share), 3% higher QoQ.

As per our estimates, the company booked PKR 162mn as penal mark-up revenue in 3Q FY11, which is 31%QoQ higher. Receivables shot up by PKR 2.49bn during the quarter whereas short term borrowing increased by PKR 0.56bn, causing the net penal mark-up income to clock in at PKR 109mn in 3Q FY11 (EPS impact: PKR 0.30).

Higher Operations and Maintenance (O&M) savings of PKR 429mn (PKR 1.17 per share) have been the major driving force behind stellar earnings for the IPP in 9mo FY11. The company maintained its O&M expenses at PKR 96mn saving PKR 0.45 per share in 3Q FY11.
IGI Research

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Offline STOCK.DEPENDENT

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2011, 09:46:30 AM »
plz someone share the technicals of NCPL too and advise about it, :thanks:

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Re: NCPL -- Nishat Chunian Power Ltd
« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2011, 12:29:54 PM »
NPL ko dhaka de k NCPL ko gle lgaya, pr shayd NCPL muje ras nhein aya  :brickwall: