Author Topic: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited  (Read 199158 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline mhmd

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 253
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Sticky post on: February 10, 2018, 01:07:00 AM »
jis din ye lower cap hogya samjho us ke agle din se ache din start for upper cap continuous

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #39 on: February 10, 2018, 01:07:00 AM »

Offline Abid_ali

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1470
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #40 on: April 03, 2012, 02:50:04 PM »
today we witness profit taking. waisay 5.5 in near future target hay.
CEMENT DRIVEN RALLY MAIN IS KO BHE CHALNA HO GA, PERHAPS DOR NA SAKAY

Offline Dilawar Ali

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 19
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #41 on: April 04, 2012, 02:07:03 PM »
today we witness profit taking. waisay 5.5 in near future target hay.
CEMENT DRIVEN RALLY MAIN IS KO BHE CHALNA HO GA, PERHAPS DOR NA SAKAY
cuurent rate per uthana banta he

Offline online88

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2148
  • Thanks Received: 4
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #42 on: April 04, 2012, 03:49:10 PM »
today we witness profit taking. waisay 5.5 in near future target hay.
CEMENT DRIVEN RALLY MAIN IS KO BHE CHALNA HO GA, PERHAPS DOR NA SAKAY
cuurent rate per uthana banta he
yes u right

Offline Abid_ali

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1470
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #43 on: April 04, 2012, 03:56:02 PM »
today we witness profit taking. waisay 5.5 in near future target hay.
CEMENT DRIVEN RALLY MAIN IS KO BHE CHALNA HO GA, PERHAPS DOR NA SAKAY
cuurent rate per uthana banta he
yes u right
If price comes in the range of 4.30/4.40 not bad. In cement rally me  even above 5.00 will be not bad. it is resisting 4.95 and want to cross it with force. Aj cement khamos thay they will take solo flight.

Offline Abid_ali

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1470
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #44 on: April 05, 2012, 09:45:17 AM »
brothers yah to dor para, congratulations who waited

Offline Abid_ali

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1470
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #45 on: April 05, 2012, 11:10:05 AM »
cements on solo flight, watch PIOC

Offline Abid_ali

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1470
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #46 on: April 05, 2012, 11:44:22 AM »
RACING TO CAP, UNEXPECTED BEHAVIOR, BUT IT IS NICE

Offline Poker Face

  • Value Investor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4906
  • Thanks Received: 75
  • A small investor hoping to make it big
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #47 on: April 05, 2012, 04:43:40 PM »
AKD Daily

Cements: Positive Volumes but Dewan news flow dominates!

While official data is yet to uploaded at the APCMA website, news reports indicate domestic cement sales for Mar'12 at a whopping 2.55mn tons - the highest ever monthly figure. In cumulative 9MFY12, local sales were up 8.4%YoY to stand at 17.4mn tons. On the flipside, exports for Mar'12 were down by 23.7%YoY to 625.4k tons while cumulative 9MFY12 exports were down 7.8%YoY to 6.2mn tons. Going forward, we expect local volumes to remain on the higher side given probable infrastructure development and construction activities in the country ahead of upcoming general elections. However, exports are likely to remain muted in the near term given depressed export volumes to the Middle East and lower than expected volumes to Afghanistan. Impressive local volumes and better pricing ability are likely to result in a sustained rally across the board in cement scrips in the near term. In this regard, continued newsflow regarding M&A activity within the sector is also keeping investor interest intact with Dewan Cement Limited (DCL) the focal point of takeover rumors. Based on average sector EV/ton basis (after removing outliers), we arrive at an indicative value of PkR5.2 per share for DCL. The scrip is already trading close to our indicative value, however, if market murmurs are to be believed, the acquisition price could be at a significant premium to current market price, potentially within the PkR8-PkR10 per share range.

Cement Sales - Local Up, Exports Down! The story within the sector has changed drastically from a few years back when exports were the focus of all attention. Current upward swing in the sector's profitability has been on account of positives unfolding within the domestic market - both in terms of volumes as well as prices. Domestic volumes in Mar'12 have reportedly come in at a whopping 2.55mn tons - the highest ever monthly figure. This was compared to 2.22mn ton in Mar'11. While the break-up between North and South is not available at the moment, we believe the growth is likely to have mainly come in the Northern region where sales volumes last year at 1.77mn tons were lower than the average of 1.8mn-1.9mn tons seen in the previous years.

Exports have continued to disappoint with cumulative 9MFY12 exports reportedly standing at 6.2mn tons - down 7.8%YoY. Of particular worry are Mar'12 exports at 625.4k tons - down 23.7%YoY. This represents the second consecutive month where exports have declined by more than 20%YoY. Even the much vaunted Afghanistan volumes have failed to materialize with exports to the country reportedly registering a tepid 2%YoY growth in 9MFY12. Going forward, we believe exports are likely to remain muted in the near term given depressed export volumes to the Middle East and lower than expected volumes to Afghanistan.

M&A Rumors - Dewan acquisition at a premium to market price? Market has been ripe of-late with rumors of acquisitions refusing to die down. In this regard, Dewan Cement is one of the prominent names that has sprung up. Note that the company is facing litigation given its non-payment of interest over debt. Resultantly, results for the company have been qualified. Best indicator in our view for cements would be EV/ton where the sector is on average trading at EV/ton of US$45.1 (PkR4,099.6). Taking the sector's indicative EV/ton on Dewan's reported capacity at ~2.6mn tons clinker and last reported debt figure of PkR8.6bn, we arrive at an indicative equity value of PkR5.2 per share. The stock is already trading at PkR5.7 per share, close to our indicative price. That said, if market murmurs are to be believed, the acquisition price will likely be at a premium to market price, with figures in the range of PkR8-PkR10 being quoted.

Offline kamal

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3611
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #48 on: April 05, 2012, 11:31:17 PM »
Bot DCL today at 5.56 tomorrow will dispose off inshallah subah :fingerscrossed1:
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline online88

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2148
  • Thanks Received: 4
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #49 on: April 06, 2012, 01:32:15 AM »
today we witness profit taking. waisay 5.5 in near future target hay.
Good show target achieved in no time :shoaby: :shoaby:

Offline online88

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2148
  • Thanks Received: 4
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #50 on: April 06, 2012, 01:48:44 AM »
whats the correct price to enter short term

bs 4 ke around ...  :goodc:

4 is perfect and ideal buy but 4.2 -4.1 bhee bura nahee hai 5 dekhay ga .. Monday kau position loonga ...Inshallah
kal is ki baari hay 4.5 tak chala jaye ga Inshallah
tomorrow I'll buy PACE and DCL 200K each for a target price of 4 and 5 respectively, market bullish rahee to next weekend i hope i'll achieve it Inshallah
DCL nay to dil khush ker diya 50% near 5, aur baqi 5.5 per sale hua. maza aa gaya, ab sirf NIB mein paisay phansay huay hain , waisay DCL aur uper jai ga, but i took my profit and very happy. PACE per nazar hay moved slowly laikin will give good gain Inshllah

Offline Dhillon

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 978
  • Thanks Received: 22
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #51 on: April 06, 2012, 08:29:04 PM »
Dewan Cement Ltd under takeover considerations                           Written as on April 06, 2012

Highlights

            •         Dewan’s capacity, utilization and market standing

            •         Dewan Cement in massive profits in 1HFY12

            •         LUCK, DGKC and ACPL likely contenders for DCL, valuations attractive

 

In today's Value Seeker, we present analysis of the grapevine regarding the acquisition of Dewan Cement Limited (DCL) by existing players, together with its valuation comparisons.

Dewan’s capacity, utilization and market standing

DCL is engaged in the production, sale, and export of cement with its own brand name 'Dewan Cement'. It offers ordinary portland cement (OPC), sulphate resistant cement (SRC) and Lion brand cement. The company was incorporated in March, 1980 with production facilities located at Deh Dhando, Dhabeji, Karachi. DCL has an installed total clinker capacity of 1.83mn tons per annum (4% industry share) and currently working with 66% of capacity utilization as of 1HFY12. During the 1HFY12, company dispatched 600k tons of cement (market share 1.03%) against 570k tons in the same period last year, massively up 4.8% YoY.

Dewan Cement in massive profits in 1HFY12

The company showed healthy growth in profitability during the 1HFY12 period. DCL posted profit after tax of Rs130mn (basic EPS Rs0.33) during 1HFY12, against a loss after tax of Rs325mn (basic LPS Rs0.90) in the same period last year. Topline of the company grew by a solid 49% YoY in 1HFY12 on the back of substantially higher growth in retention prices during 1HFY12, followed by 4.8% improvement in cement dispatches during the same period. Gross margins of the company  stands at 10.82% as compared to negative  gross margin of 8.21% during 1HFY11. On a QoQ basis, DCL posted a massive profit after tax of Rs113mn (basic EPS Rs0.29) during 2QFY12, as compared to a profit after tax of only Rs17mn (basic EPS Rs0.04) during 1QFY11, up by a massive 575% QoQ. Topline of the company also jumped by a healthy 24% QoQ mainly on the back higher cement prices in the domestic market. Meanwhile, coal prices also went down by 4.8% QoQ in 2QFY12 to support gross margins of the company during the period. Gross as well as net margins of the company, as a result, went up by 500bps QoQ each.

LUCK, DGKC and ACPL likely contenders for DCL, valuations attractive

We believe any one of LUCK, DGKC, ACPL, could emerge as the possible acquire as these companies: 1) can prop up their market share further with DGKC having both possible synergies and a muscle required to takeover DCL, and 2) any of these players can capitalize on the opportunity to further add to its capacity share in the industry through an LBO (leverage buyout) as these three major players have low D/E ratios than the entire industry i.e. DGKC 61%, LUCK 21%, ACPL 0% against industry’s 100%. However, there are more synergies for DGKC (for presence in southern region of the country), and ACPL (for bigger share to better compete with LUCK (company already has largest share in industry with presence in both the regions of the country). These companies’ current and new individual market shares, post DCL acquisition, have been provided in the table alongside. As far as valuations are concerned, DCL stands slightly lower to industry’s DE (with massive interest cover amid significant EBITDA generation (on an annualized basis) while the DCL stock trades at a significant discount to average industry’s P/S (see table alongside).   

InvestCap 

Offline SBM

  • Master Troll
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11656
  • Thanks Received: 100
  • Ouulman :)
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #52 on: April 11, 2012, 10:21:25 AM »
Dewan Cement: Whats with the market price?
APRIL 11, 2012 BR RESEARCH 0 COMMENTS

This year has been a thriving one for the cement industry of the country, especially in terms of the price dynamics and companies margins.

And what could be a better time for troubled companies like Dewan Cement to execute some key business decisions than that of positive industry dynamics.

The local cement industry is abuzz with rumours that Dewan Cement Limited may be the target of an acquisition in the very near future.

Though nothing official has been stated by Dewan or any interested buyer at the moment, certain facts about the company warrant attention.

Dewan Cement, owned by the Dewan Group of companies, has not been performing up to mark over the past several years.

The company has been operating under capacity at an average of 40 percent at both its northern and southern plants, at a time when the industrys average capacity utilization stands at about 70 percent.

In addition, its also been a target of tremendous flak for its hefty leverage position, with its debt to equity ratio hovering around 170 percent compared to an average industry ratio of 109 percent at the end of 1HFY12.

So much has been the pessimism surrounding the companys gearing position that financial institutions denied Dewan Cement loans to set up a line in the South in 2008.

As a result, the company resorted to financing its expansion on its own, worsening its liquidity position further as its working capital was diverted to this financing.

Even the auditors appear to be explicit in their disapproval of the companys finances, having presented only a qualified review for their accounts - a report issued when the auditor encounters non-compliance with generally accepted accounting principles.

They have gone to the extent of claiming that the profit of Rs130 million reported in the companys Profit & Loss account for 1HFY12 should have actually been a loss of Rs427 million after taking into account adjustments for mark-ups on loans and correcting current liabilities that were quoted as long-term liabilities.

Unsurprisingly, the company has proposed a restructuring deal to its lenders to help ease its burden and allow it to get back on track.

The proposal includes the conversion of debt obligations into a term finance certificate of eight years, a three-year grace period, and the repayment of the principal in parts after the end of the grace period.

However, given the companys aching financial and operational performance, analysts are not too optimistic about a deal working out.

But besides the troubled company performance, the negative image attached with the Dewan Group could plausibly be holding the company back when it comes to clinching either new loans or restructuring arrangements with lenders.

Here, any prospective acquisition of the company may become a critical turnaround for the company, since the mere backing of a reputable acquirer, even without any significant changes in operational dynamics, may be enough to convince lenders to look seriously into a workable debt restructuring arrangement.

Of course, the scrip will be impacted in the local bourse as well.

In fact, despite Dewan Cements tight-lipped stance on being questioned about the possibilities of an acquisition, share prices of Dewan cement shot up sharply recently, standing at over Rs6 per share, having risen by about 240 percent since what they stood at on 1st March (see graph).

While this does hint that some critical news is rendering the market change its course as far as Dewan Cement is concerned, no confirmed news or names of potential acquirers have been dished out.

Needless to say, given the scenarios presented, it is strongly probable that the companys valuation, both in terms of equity and debt, will be affected in case an acquisition materialises.

Its not just numbers, but the acquirers goodwill also at play here.

http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/2424:dewan-cement-whats-with-the-market-price/?date=2012-04-11
I hate waking up.

Offline SBM

  • Master Troll
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11656
  • Thanks Received: 100
  • Ouulman :)
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #53 on: April 11, 2012, 10:24:59 AM »
classy @investcap .. They failed to mention that the 'massive' profits made by DCL in 1HF12 were actually qualified by the auditors... Did they not read the first few pages of the half year report or own DCL stock and want to dump it on unsuspecting investors..  :mad: :mad:
I hate waking up.

Offline malikk

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 701
  • Thanks Received: 8
  • Kachra Lover
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #54 on: April 11, 2012, 12:24:09 PM »
yar go for Flyng , i bot it early morning and now enjoying ,..... 6 tak jaye ga inshALLAH ... sorry cudnt find the relevant post of it .. so posting here ....  :biggrin:
Never sell in Red .. Never Buy in Green ..

Offline qasim_aries

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 10
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #55 on: April 11, 2012, 01:30:09 PM »
CaP.... rakha hai bhai rakha hai  :banana:

Offline malikk

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 701
  • Thanks Received: 8
  • Kachra Lover
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #56 on: April 11, 2012, 01:33:49 PM »
CaP.... rakha hai bhai rakha hai  :banana:
jeetay ga bhayeee jeetay ga .....  :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: 6 plus ka target hai bhaiaaaa  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Never sell in Red .. Never Buy in Green ..

Offline Ali135

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 819
  • Thanks Received: 1
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #57 on: April 11, 2012, 02:05:40 PM »
lo g khol diya cap.  :bangin:

Offline qasim_aries

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 10
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #58 on: April 11, 2012, 02:19:09 PM »
Pressure aia hai market mei  :dunno:

Offline malikk

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 701
  • Thanks Received: 8
  • Kachra Lover
    • View Profile
Re: DCL -- Dewan Cement Limited
« Reply #59 on: April 11, 2012, 02:34:30 PM »
Excellent show by Flyng  :shoaby:
Never sell in Red .. Never Buy in Green ..