Author Topic: CYAN -- Cyan Limited  (Read 41231 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline M&M

  • KSE100 Trader
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4428
  • Thanks Received: 109
  • Who doesn't like chocolates and profits?
    • View Profile
CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #-1 on: September 01, 2012, 08:54:32 PM »
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing." - Socrates

Guidelines | Messages | Follow me

Pakinvestorsguide

CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #-1 on: September 01, 2012, 08:54:32 PM »

Offline co2

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 364
  • Thanks Received: 3
  • Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2:rem rule 1
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« on: September 01, 2012, 09:59:16 PM »
nice show dont kw d target  :biggthumpup: :thumbsup_anim:
An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination.  ~Ralph Seger

Offline babar4289

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1092
  • Thanks Received: 20
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2012, 12:29:45 AM »
100 rs

Offline 007

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8613
  • Thanks Received: 74
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2012, 05:12:02 AM »
looks like a securty company so its investment portfolio is the key driver!

Offline AIS

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 112
  • Thanks Received: 5
  • oh bhai poora lao...
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2012, 09:36:06 PM »
currently it is cum dividend and cum bonus...10% cash, 50% bonus (book closure 27/9/12 inshallah).....right?
Keep an eye on the market but focus on the companies.

Offline kamal

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3047
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2012, 09:58:01 PM »
CYAN 100+

Inshallah
but i sold all at upper cap ..

buy it arnd 82-83
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2012, 12:29:05 AM »
Cyan Limited - from Rs 70/ share on 29 August 2012 the price went up as high as 90.51 today - ---- 30% jump in almost 5 working days. The beauty about this share is 50% bonus and Re 1 dividend half way through the year.

EPS of Rs 23/ share for 6 months will become Rs 15.33/ share after the bonus is realised in early October 2012. 3rd quarter is looking good too !!!! Cyan has a great portfolio (given below) and will realise dividends in 3rd quarter. Also, the KSE index has significantly grown since 30 June 2012 therefore fair value appreciation will also take place.


             30-Jun-12              4-Sep-12   
CYAN LIMITED      Np. Of   Market      Market   Gain
         Shares   Value      Value   
                     
Dawood Hercules       5,649,747  33        32     (5,649,747)
D Lawrencepur       2,965,095  62        55     (20,755,665)
HUBCO          9,900,000  42        49     74,349,000
POL          500,000     367        430     31,405,000
PPL          400,000     188        223     13,884,000
PSO          624,480     236        255     12,146,136
Fatima          2,100,000  25        24     (2,247,000)
DG Khan Cement       500,000     39        51     6,035,000
HUBCO          32,660,000  42        49     245,603,200
NPL          5,000,000  15        16     5,200,000
NBP          2,170,000  44        46     5,728,800
MCB          750,000     166        189     16,695,000
BAFL          5,067,775  17        17     (506,778)
UBL          1,770,791  78        81     4,108,235
AICL          580,501     58        64     3,291,441
TPL Tracker       431,847     10        9     (522,535)
PTCL          4,000,000  14        19     21,240,000
                     
                      410,004,087

As of yesterday, only the fair value appreciation stands at 410 million for the 3rd quarter, let alone the dividends and booking of any capital gains during the quarter. These are just the shares, CYAN has invested Rs 750 million in mutual funds as well so one can imagine gains from there in the current qtr.

Overall, I see approx Rs 8 to Rs 10/ share EPS for 3rd qtr effectively taking 9 months EPS up to Rs 25.33/ share (FACTORING THE RECENT BONUS ISSUE). Assume, minimum Rs 4 to 5/ share EPS for 4th qtr (depending on year end status of KSE index) I will be looking at Rs 30/ share EPS for FULL YEAR.

At todays closing of Rs 85, I will convert this price into x dividend & x bonus at Rs 56/ share.

According to the above FULL YEAR EPS TARGET of Rs 30, I am looking at PE Ratio of 1.87 which is what makes me call a STRONG BUY for Cyan.


I also noted today that Mr. Samad Dawood CEO of Cyan sold 250,000 shares yesterday but I am not taking it negatively as the portfolio is great. HUBCO especially is immune from rising oil prices and devaluation of Pak rs and accounts for a major portion in the composition of holdings.

My target PE for Cyan is 4 by March 2013 and if InshaAllah it is achieved the share price will for sure be over 100. From the current base of 56 (after factoring bonus) the upside appears over 80% in 6 months
« Last Edit: September 06, 2012, 10:24:24 AM by Ali Ahmed »

Offline kamal

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3047
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2012, 09:17:03 AM »
Cyan Limited - from Rs 70/ share on 29 August 2012 the price went up as high as 90.51 today - ---- 30% jump in almost 5 working days. The beauty about this share is 50% bonus and Re 1 dividend half way through the year.

EPS of Rs 23/ share for 6 months will become Rs 15.33/ share after the bonus is realised in early October 2012. 3rd quarter is looking good too !!!! Cyan has a great portfolio (given below) and will realise dividends in 3rd quarter. Also, the KSE index has significantly grown since 30 June 2012 therefore fair value appreciation will also take place.


             30-Jun-12              4-Sep-12   
CYAN LIMITED      Np. Of   Market      Market   Gain
         Shares   Value      Value   
                     
Dawood Hercules       5,649,747  33        32     (5,649,747)
D Lawrencepur       2,965,095  62        55     (20,755,665)
HUBCO          9,900,000  42        49     74,349,000
POL          500,000     367        430     31,405,000
PPL          400,000     188        223     13,884,000
PSO          624,480     236        255     12,146,136
Fatima          2,100,000  25        24     (2,247,000)
DG Khan Cement       500,000     39        51     6,035,000
HUBCO          32,660,000  42        49     245,603,200
NPL          5,000,000  15        16     5,200,000
NBP          2,170,000  44        46     5,728,800
MCB          750,000     166        189     16,695,000
BAFL          5,067,775  17        17     (506,778)
UBL          1,770,791  78        81     4,108,235
AICL          580,501     58        64     3,291,441
TPL Tracker       431,847     10        9     (522,535)
PTCL          4,000,000  14        19     21,240,000
                     
                      410,004,087

As of yesterday, only the fair value appreciation stands at 410 million for the 3rd quarter, let alone the dividends and booking of any capital gains during the quarter. These are just the shares, CYAN has invested Rs 750 million in mutual funds as well so one can imagine gains from there in the current qtr.

Overall, I see approx Rs 8 to Rs 10/ share EPS for 3rd qtr effectively taking 9 months EPS up to Rs 25.33/ share (FACTORING THE RECENT BONUS ISSUE). Assume, minimum Rs 4 to 5/ share EPS for 4th qtr (depending on year end status of KSE index) I will be looking at Rs 30/ share EPS for FULL YEAR.

At todays closing of Rs 85, I will convert this price into x dividend & x bonus at Rs 56/ share.

According to the above FULL YEAR EPS TARGET of Rs 30, I am looking at PE Ratio of 1.87 which is what makes me call a STRONG BUY for Cyan.


I also noted today that Mr. Samad Dawood CEO of Cyan sold 250,000 shares yesterday but I am not taking it negatively as the portfolio is great. HUBCO especially is immune from rising oil prices and devaluation of Pak rs and accounts for a major portion in the composition of holdings.

My target PE for Cyan is 4 by March 2013 and if InshaAllah it is achieved the share price will for sure be over 100.

Nice work ....

U have exactly wrote ...what should be ritten...

CEO sale of shares ...could be negative. ..in some way ... i think ...

POL holders ... also notice kai last 2 weeks main higher managment nai POL kitna offload kia hai and kitni price pai...

Listing regulation ki this requirement is quite good ....

Ithink kai CYAN 100 TP ... some say 120 ...

But to me low 80's dekhay ga ..and probably spots pai tau locks pai lock ...

so uska cushion creat karna hai ..

Overall ...most imprressive stance of this co is 31 mln shares of HUBC at opnly Rs. 31 thats wow ...

these are in HFT portfolio and it also has arnd 10 mln shares of HUBC at 35 arnd in AFS jismain sai 5 mln shares shayad pledged tn NCPL ... balkay HFT walay main sai ..

CYAN financials dependend uon market and 1% drate means 16k + than 30+ eps is evidend ...

the objectives of co also states kai it will make forieng investment too ... lets c ... on that too...

Bit like New JSCL .... AHSL ... Equity company ...But all people book gains ... where possible and dont be greedy . 1000 wala share bhee 4 ka hosakta hai market has proved this ...god knows whatss in plat after election ... Imran Khan Govt and all CGT vanished and 2008 wala scenerio... ALlah na karay ;)

Cheers and enjoy ... but dont overlook other side too..
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2012, 12:56:41 PM »
post share selling by Mr Sarmad Dawood (CEO) and in the run up to the SPOT, Cyan is on a upper cap today

Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2012, 12:35:32 AM »
CYAN HY 2012 EPS approx. 23. Interim bonus of 50% will mean the HY EPS will become 15.3 after the SPOT in early October 2012.

3rd Qtr will post approx. 8 to 10 EPS (incorporating the bonus) based on the HUBCO dividend and fair value appreciation of HUBCO, PPL, POL, PSO, PTCL, Dawood Hercules etc.

Minimum EPS for 4 QTR 2012 will be Rs 5.

All this will take the FY 2012 EPS to almost Rs 28 to 30.

At todays close of 81.50 the new price after Ex bonus and Ex Div will be Rs 53.7

Effectively FY 2012 PE Ratio on todays price will be 2 ONLY.

A strong buy call for CYAN as the close of year at PE ratio of 4 will mean an effective gain of 100% on todays rate.[

Bottom line is the portfolio is amazingly great with all topnotch blue chips mainly and if the KSE 100 index remains at above 15000 mark in February 2013, this share will rock the most

Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2012, 12:39:00 AM »
CYAN HY 2012 EPS approx. 23. Interim bonus of 50% will mean the HY EPS will become 15.3 after the SPOT in early October 2012.

3rd Qtr will post approx. 8 to 10 EPS (incorporating the bonus) based on the HUBCO dividend and fair value appreciation of HUBCO, PPL, POL, PSO, PTCL, Dawood Hercules etc.

Minimum EPS for 4 QTR 2012 will be Rs 5.

All this will take the FY 2012 EPS to almost Rs 28 to 30.

At todays close of 81.50 the new price after Ex bonus and Ex Div will be Rs 53.7

Effectively FY 2012 PE Ratio on todays price will be 2 ONLY.

A strong buy call for CYAN as the close of year at PE ratio of 4 will mean an effective gain of 100% on todays rate.[

Bottom line is the portfolio is amazingly great with all topnotch blue chips mainly and if the KSE 100 index remains at above 15000 mark in February 2013, this share will rock the most



IF I COMPARE IT WITH THE LIKES OF PICIC GROWTH FUND WHICH IS TRAILING AT PE RATIO OF ALMOST 7...... THIS SHARE IS A REAL TREAT!!!!

Offline Valueestimator

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
  • Thanks Received: 300
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2012, 09:03:46 PM »
mututal funds are not valued by pe ratio.


these re valued by the nav, discount factor, dividend, return above the benchmark return,
AGIC UNIC AICL KML FASM BTL JDMT

Offline Abdul Qadir

  • Research
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2285
  • Thanks Received: 79
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2012, 12:25:16 AM »
Cyan earnings might fluctuate more because they are playing in stock markets like traders.... ;)

Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2012, 01:35:09 AM »
Cyan is a little different. It has invested 75 crores in mutual funds and holds a portfolio of shares worth approx. 3.5 billion. Portfolio composiiton is mainly led by HUBCO which accounts for over 55% and the rest are all blue chip with high dividend and bonus yield.

It used to own Engro Corp and FFC but has sold them. following is the holding as at 30 June 2012



         30-Jun-12   30-Jun-12          12-Sep-12   
CYAN LIMITED   Np. Of   Market      Market       Gain
      Shares   Value      Value   
                        
Dawood Hercules    5,649,747  33        35     11,299,494
D Lawrencepur    2,965,095  62        52     (29,650,950)
HUBCO       9,900,000  42        50     78,309,000
POL       500,000     367        422     27,530,000
PPL       400,000     188        225     14,684,000
PSO       624,480     236        264     17,579,112
Fatima       2,100,000  25        23     (3,507,000)
DG Khan Cement    500,000     39        50     5,060,000
HUBCO       32,660,000  42        50     258,667,200
NPL       5,000,000  15        16     5,200,000
NBP       2,170,000  44        45     3,168,200
MCB       750,000     166        189     16,695,000
BAFL       5,067,775  17        17     (506,778)
UBL       1,770,791  78        81     4,108,235
AICL       580,501     58        64     3,291,441
TPL Tracker    431,847     10        9     (522,535)
PTCL       4,000,000  14        19     21,240,000
                        
                   432,644,419
                        

It is only fair that Cyan takes advantage of KSE upward movement and is actively trading on a certain percentage of shares it holds. Most part of HUBCO will be held for long term dividends.

just look at the capital gain it has made in 3rd qtr.... value is up 432 million and it does not include dividends it has received during the qtr including HUBCO.

 :biggthumpup:


Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 19923
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2012, 12:27:33 PM »
: but the question remains will it book gains or will it go into comprehensive income
TOP PICKS
Engro fatima ogdc pol pso dgkc mlcf kapco npl ubl atrl nml efoods aicl hcar searl

Offline hammad01

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 512
  • Thanks Received: 2
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2012, 12:41:02 PM »
Farzooq bhai can you explain briefly what could be the impact of gain or comprehensive income on the share price which will have more EPS

Offline tariqhafeez

  • Research
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1135
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2012, 12:44:19 PM »
need to analyse it more .  What is NET ASSET VALUE per share if we add 50 percent bonus .

Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2012, 12:44:43 PM »
Even if it does not book the gains, they will still go thru the "profit on fair value of shares" and still be reflected in the P&L. However, the news has it that CYAN is booking gains for a certain portion of its portfolio and investing the proceeds in shares with attractive PE ---- we will know when Q3 results are out in October/ November.


Offline Ali Ahmed

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Thanks Received: 5
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2012, 12:48:17 PM »
need to analyse it more .  What is NET ASSET VALUE per share if we add 50 percent bonus .


FY 2012 NAV estimated to be 122/ share (before 50% bonus)
and 81/ share after 50% bonus

Offline tariqhafeez

  • Research
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1135
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: CYAN -- Cyan Limited
« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2012, 12:54:31 PM »
Dear Ali bhai


The nav at PKR 81/ share is based on the accounts of june 30, 2012. Am  I right!

The increase in values of stocks since june 30 , 2012 todate, is 432 million , Am I right!