Author Topic: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.  (Read 90579 times)

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #39 on: March 18, 2010, 12:04:26 PM »
Packages: Pulp prices hit all time high

Pulp prices for March are up by US$50/ton taking list prices back to all-time highs of US$840/ton in Europe, US$870/ton in North America and US$800/ton in Asia

With ~30% of Packages' RM cost accounted for by imported pulp, any short-term spike in paper pulp prices poses 1H10 margin risk for the company. The trade off for Packages (PKGS) will be between higher volumes and margins.

Packages has already raised output prices by 7-18% since Jan-10 and intends further hike of 3% to fully pass on the impact of rising pulp prices. We estimate negative EPS impact of as much as PRs0.45-0.48/sh (ex PRs-US$ depreciation) in case the company is unable to pass through rising costs.

We maintain our Neutral on Packages and believe 1H margins can surprise on the downside due to higher RM cost. The stock currently trades at 2010E PE of 10.9x
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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #39 on: March 18, 2010, 12:04:26 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #40 on: April 19, 2010, 03:52:39 PM »
eps 3.65
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #41 on: April 20, 2010, 11:37:54 AM »
Packages: 1Q10 EPS: PRs3.8, DPS: Nil ( Analyst Comment)
Packages announced upbeat 1Q10 results on 20th April, with an EPS of PRs3.8. 1Q10 earnings
came in higher than expected. Deviation from our initial expectations emanated from deferred
Tetra-Pack dividend. Although, on the core business front, PKGS reported a LPS of PRs4.67, the
company managed to increase its gross margins by +900bps QoQ due to 1) 28% QoQ higher
revenue, attributed to 9-12% hike in end product prices; compared to 2) 16% QoQ rise in COGS.
The major highlight of the result was ~PRs550mn deferred Tetra-Pack dividend booked by the
company which boosted the investment income to the tune of PRs794mn and helped to pull an
otherwise LPS of PRs3-3.5/sh into the green.
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Offline M&M

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #42 on: April 20, 2010, 11:45:51 AM »
Packages: 1Q10 EPS: PRs3.8, DPS: Nil ( Analyst Comment)
Packages announced upbeat 1Q10 results on 20th April, with an EPS of PRs3.8. 1Q10 earnings
came in higher than expected. Deviation from our initial expectations emanated from deferred
Tetra-Pack dividend. Although, on the core business front, PKGS reported a LPS of PRs4.67, the
company managed to increase its gross margins by +900bps QoQ due to 1) 28% QoQ higher
revenue, attributed to 9-12% hike in end product prices; compared to 2) 16% QoQ rise in COGS.
The major highlight of the result was ~PRs550mn deferred Tetra-Pack dividend booked by the
company which boosted the investment income to the tune of PRs794mn and helped to pull an
otherwise LPS of PRs3-3.5/sh into the green.

yar ye kabhi 75 eps daita hey to kabhi 3 eps daita hey

Farzooq zara source bhi likh dia kero analyst firm ka
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Offline 007

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #43 on: April 20, 2010, 12:01:37 PM »
 :arrowhead:

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #44 on: May 08, 2010, 11:05:13 AM »
PACKAGES LIMITED - Analysis of Financial Statements Financial Year 2003 - Financial Year 2009
OVERVIEW (May 07 2010): Packages Limited is a public limited company incorporated in Pakistan and is listed on Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad stock exchanges. It is principally engaged in manufacture and sale of paper, paperboard, packaging materials and tissue products.

It was established in 1957 as a joint venture between the Ali Group of Pakistan and Akerlund & Rausing of Sweden, to produce packaging material for the consumer industry.

It is the only packaging facility in Pakistan which offers a complete range of packaging solutions including offset printed cartons, shipping containers and flexible packaging materials to individuals and businesses worldwide. The clientele of Packages Limited includes illustrious names such as Unilever and Pakistan Tobacco Company, who have been its customers for over 50 years.

Packages Limited is producing most of its packaging material and tissue range of products mainly from its factory in Lahore. It is also producing corrugated boxes from its plants in Karachi and Kasur since 2002 and 2007 respectively. Presently, it is the market leader in terms of total installed capacity. The Bulleh Shah project has increased the paper and paperboard production capacity of Packages by three times.

========================================
PACKAGES LIMITED
========================================
Symbol                              PKGS
----------------------------------------
Current Price                     Rs 128
Turnover:                           7978
Outstanding Shares              84379504
Market Capitalization        10821671388
EPS( FY'09)                     Rs 48.16
========================================

Packages has leveraged its products and increased its growth through association. Its business alliances have helped it manage its business more effectively, as well as helping Packages and its partners develop and diversify their interests. Customers also benefit from the increased knowledge base, as the company transforms its market awareness and shared technology into innovative and cost-effective solutions for their customers.

The key business partners of Packages Group are Nestle Limited, Tri-Pack Films Limited, Packages Lanka Private Limited, First International Investment Bank Limited, Tetrapak Pakistan Limited, DIC Limited, IGI Pakistan and Coca-Cola Beverages Pakistan Limited. PKGS has a very strong investment portfolio. Majority of the companies are either buyers of the company's products or suppliers of raw materials like printing ink. This provides a strong backing to the company and thus mitigates any risk of bargaining power of customers. Some of its major customers are Nestle, Tetra Pack, Tri-Pack Films etc.

Over the years, the company has continued to enhance its facilities to meet growing demand of packaging products in the country and abroad. In the midst of increasing buying power in the domestic market, the growth in sales is visible across all segments of the business and this increase in sales is because of the increase in demand of paper and paperboard in the country.

==================================================
Financial Performance               2009      2008
==================================================
                               (Rupees in million)
==================================================
Invoiced Sales-Gross              16,533    14,300
EBITDA (from operations)             719       954
Finance cost                      -1,278    -1,662
Investment income                  9,180       949
Income (net)                         220       337
Profit/(loss) after tax            4,064      -196
Basic Earnings per share-rupees    48.16     -2.32
==================================================

LIQUIDITY

The liquidity situation for Packages has mostly maintained consistency. From 1.48 (CY06) it showed a sharp increase to 2.46 (CY07). This increase came due to a 15% YoY decrease in current liabilities and a 41% YoY increase in current assets. The decrease in liabilities was fueled by a large decrease in finances under markup arrangements (68% YoY).

The current ratio decreased in CY08 from a high of 2.46 to 1.50. The main basis of the decrease was the large increase in current assets (42% YoY) amid a larger increase in current liabilities (134% YoY). Again the main cause for the change was a large change in finances under markup arrangements. Such finances increased by a gargantuan 545% (from CY07 to CY08). All current assets showed modest growths.

================================
Liquidity                   2009
================================
Current Ratio               4.58
Quick Ratio                 2.22
================================

In FY09, Packages was able to enhance its liquidity condition, as its current ratio swelled to 4.58, similarly the quick ratio too showed a sharp increase to 2.22x in FY09. This healthy position was attained by lowering their current liabilities, as their finance under mark-up arrangements greatly reduced to Rs 86 million from Rs 2,587 million in FY08.

On the contrary, the current assets' huge plunged towards the strong side was mainly due to increasing of cash and bank balances to Rs 455 million from Rs 199 million in FY08.

ASSET MANAGEMENT RATIOS

Since CY05, the inventory turnover has continued rising. In four years, the inventory turnover has risen from 68.42 (CY05) to 113.12 (CY08). Increase in the inventory turnover reflects the greater increase in sales as against the stock in trade and the stores and spares. In CY08 the inventory turnover increased to 113.12 on the back of a 37% YoY increase in stock in trade and stores and spares.

The day sales outstanding (DSO) had increased slowly from CY03 to CY05. It decreased slightly in CY06 to 32.74 from 34.60 (CY05) due to increase in trade debts (4.65% YoY) and a greater increase in sales (11% YoY).

The sales to equity ratio has shown a continued decline (from CY03 to CY07), though it increased in CY08. Sales have increased exponentially showing increasing rates of growth. The year on year increase in sales for the last three years was 11% (CY06), 17% (CY07) and 36% (CY08). But even with increasing sales, the ratio has continued to decline. This shows that the increase in sales is dwarfed by the increase in equity (except for CY08). In CY06, when sales increased by 11% YoY, the increase in equity was of 76.74% YoY. Thus the ratio decreased from 1.06 to 0.66. In CY07, the equity increased by 32.9% while the sales increased by 17%. In CY08, the sales again increased (by 36% YoY), but the equity decreased by 10.45%. Though paid-up capital (15% YoY) and general reserve (19% YoY) increased, a huge decrease in unappropriated profit (about -104% YoY) brought about the decline in the equity. This decrease can be attributed to the loss that Packages faced in CY08.

Total assets turnover has also being declining for the last many years, except CY08. Again as mentioned before, the sales have been increasing consistently over the years. Therefore, the decrease in the ratio can only be attributed to the larger increases in total assets. Total assets increased by 95.16% in CY06 and 47.48% in CY07. The increase in CY08 was low in relation (4.77% YoY). Compared to these, the increase in sales was 11% (CY06), 17% (CY07) and 36% (CY08). Thus except for CY08, the increases in sale were lower than the increases in assets. The Bulleh Shah project had contributed hugely to the increases in assets. The major increases could be seen under the heads of property, plant and equipment and investments. Property, plant and equipment increased by 237.38% (CY07) which translates into an increase of 7.29 billion rupees. Investments increased by 732.74% (CY06), from around 700 million rupees to around 5.77 billion. Investments again increased by 74.53% (CY07), adding around 4.3 billion rupees to the balance sheet. In CY08, the turnover improved to 0.41. This progress was witnessed due to a lower increase in assets as compared to the increase in sales. Amongst assets, investments and long term loans & deposits decreased (-17% and -36% YoY respectively), while rates of growth in other assets slowed down considerably. Overall, assets increased by only 4%, as compared to 47% (CY07).

ASSET MANAGEMENT RATIOS

================================
Asset Management Ratios     2009
================================
Inventory turnover           155
Day sales outstanding      38.68
Sales/Equity                0.66
Total Asset Turnover        0.46
================================

In FY09, the asset management saw a slight decline, since certain ratios showed in the effectiveness of the assets employed. The inventory turnover increased to 155 days, showed that it took more days in FY09 to sell of the inventory, similarly the Day sales outstanding too showed a decline as the number of days reached 39, this is because of the increase in trade debts and sales (local as well as export) on year-on-year basis. However, the trend continues to be on the downward for the company.

The Sales/Equity ratio is again on the decline as the proportional increase in sales is less than the increase in the equity, thereby showing a decreasing result. As can be noted, the equity increased by 53%, on the other hand the sales only increasing by 15%, showing the low revenue generated by the equity ploughed in the company. Likewise, we also see the reducing of the Total Assets Turnover, indicating the sales not generating up to the mark of the assets employed. The ratio declined to 46% in FY09.

DEBT MANAGEMENT RATIOSThe debt to asset ratio has showed a constant increase from CY05 (when it was 33.43). This signifies that the debt is increasing at a greater rate (22.89% YoY CY08) than the assets (4.77% YoY CY08). We can easily attribute this to the recent expansionary activity undertaken by Packages.

The debt to equity ratio had until CY07 been under one. That meant that the debt for Packages had remained lesser than its equity. Now (CY08) the ratio has increased to 1.15. This was caused by Packages facing a loss, which reduced its unappropriated profits by 104% YoY. Thus the increase in the ratio was fueled by the decrease in equity. Until CY08, the debt had remained lesser than equity. That means that more than 50 percent of the assets were backed by equity.

The long-term debt to equity ratio quickened growth from CY05 to CY07. The growth slowed in CY08 (when the ratio showed 80.78). As mentioned before, the equity increased consistently from CY03 to CY07, after which it decreased in CY08. For Packages, long-term debt has increased continually from CY03 to CY07. This increase has been fuelled by large increases in long-term finances (+500% YoY in CY06 and +105% YoY in CY07). In CY08, total long-term debts decreased slightly by 1.18%. This should have led to a decrease in the ratio. Instead it appeared as an increase due to the greater decrease in equity (-10.45% YoY).

================================
DEBT MANAGEMENT RATIOS      2009
================================
Debt to Asset               0.23
Debt to Equity Ratio        0.32
Long Term Debt to Equity    0.32
================================

The company was able to maintain its leverage position and reduce it to a considerable level. Less dependency was shown on the debt side in FY09. The assets were funded more by the equity based financing reducing the financial charges for the current year.

Most of their long-term finances were reduced dramatically for the period FY09, leading to decline in the debt to asset ratio to 0.23, this is explained by the reduction in long-term finances as well as finances under mark-up arrangement. Likewise, the debt to equity ratio could be seen as 0.32 in FY09, owing to the fact more of equity was used to generate the finance for the company.

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

Of the profitability ratios, the return on asset, the net profit margin and the return on common equity have all shown a similar trend. They depressed in CY05, and then spiked in CY06. Since then, they have showed a downward movement.

The gross profit margin, on the other hand, has shown a consistent decline since CY03 (when it was 18.97). Sales have shown continued increases throughout (CY03-08), with the year on year rate of increase jumping from 16.75% (CY07) to 35.68% (CY08). Sales in CY08 touched an all time high of 14 billion rupees. On the other hand, gross profit is decreasing due to the increasing cost of goods. The cost of goods being sold is increasing continuously due to inflation and increase in imported raw material costs along with increase in power and fuel charges. In CY08, it spiked by 44.09% reaching 11.28 billion rupees. Therefore, though the sales are increasing, they are not translating into higher profits for the company. The gross profit decreased by -7.36% (CY07) and -21.34% (CY08). As mentioned above, the costs increased due to very high amounts of inflation witnessed in 2008.

From CY03 to CY05, the net profit margin remained around twelve and thirteen. It spiked in CY06, reaching 67.58. This huge increase was due to a large increase in the net profit on the back of high investment income. Investment income increased 824.75% YoY, ie from around 0.6 billion to around 5.6 billion rupees. This coupled with a low tax expense translated into a huge - 500% YoY increase in net profit. Since CY06, the trend has shifted towards a decreasing net profit margin. In CY08, the net profit declined by -104.53%, which took Packages into the red. This decline is attributed to the huge increase in financing costs (352.42% YoY), due to the devaluing of the Pakistani rupee. Packages has many debts outstanding in foreign currencies. Thus devaluation had a large impact on its financial position. Another major cause for decrease was the fall in investment income (78.5% YoY). Thus currently (CY08), the net profit margin stands around -1.37% which depicts a net loss for the company. Though this loss may be temporary, due to unusual market difficulties (high inflationary pressures, high rupee devaluation) of the CY08, the fact that the gross margin has continued to decrease is alarming.

The return on assets (ROA) depicts the amount of income generated as per the assets. It is proportional to the net profit of the company depending upon the trend of the assets. Packages has shown a continued increase in the amount of its assets (though the rate has slowed). The net profit had showed a decrease (CY03 - CY05) followed by a spike (CY06) and then again a decrease (CY07-08). The ROA has also followed this trend. It spiked from 8.74 (CY05) to 26.91 (CY06). It then started falling and was -0.56 in CY08. The negative value of the ratio is a bit disconcerting as it shows that each rupee in asset value is producing a loss for the company.

The return on common equity (ROE) has also followed the trend of the net profit margin. The ROE increased when profits increased and decreased when profits decreased. The equity for the company has continued to increase due to good profits (except in CY08) and issuance of new shares. Total equity increased by 76.74% in CY06 and 32.90% in CY07, before decreasing by 10.45% in CY08.

The fall in equity in CY08 was due to the large decrease in unappropriated profits (-104.53 YoY) even though new shares worth around 110 million rupees were issued. Thus since CY06 when the ROE peaked (44.62), it has continued to decline. Currently (CY08), the ROE stands at -1.2, which signifies a negative return. The negative value is significant because it suggests that any investment in the company would produce negative returns, ie would not yield a return.

================================
Profitability               2009
================================
Profit Margin             24.58%
Gross Profit Margin        1.86%
Return on Assets          11.41%
Return on Equity          16.31%
================================
PROFITABILITY

In FY09, the company's profitability saw a huge increase, the net profit was in positive figures in FY09 and the ratios too showed a high return to the investors.

The gross profit margin though was very low at 1.86%, however due to the investment income in FY09 of Rs 9,179 million the company was able to post a positive return of 24.58%. Therefore the return on the assets as well as ROE showed a positive sign for their respective ratios. ROE posted a 16.31% growth compared negative 1.2% in FY08.

Similar explanation is for the ROA ratios. Thereby, increasing the profitability of the company and also regaining the company in the eyes of shareholders and investors.

MARKET VALUE

The EPS for the company remained a little under 20 from CY03 to CY05. It spiked in CY06 reaching 87.3 and then started declining. For CY07, EPS was 51.27 and for CY08, it was -2.32. The sudden increase in CY06 was due to a large increase in earnings (net profit increased 500.85% YoY) with no increase in the number of outstanding shares. The subsequent fall (CY07) was due to issuance of new shares and a decrease in net profit (-29.09% YoY). In CY08, the company witnessed a loss. This loss translated into a negative EPS. Furthering its fall was the issuance of new shares.

The book value for the company shows the value of ownership per share of the investors. The book value had shown a continuous increase since CY03 to CY07 (at an average of 35.95% per annum). It decreased in CY08. The reason for the increase was that the equity was increasing at a greater rate than the issuance of new shares. Continuous profits were being added to the general reserve and the unappropriated profits sections. This increased the equity for the company from around 3 billion rupees in CY03 to around 18 billion rupees in CY07, at an average of around 3 billion per year. This boosted the book value. In CY08, the number of shares outstanding increased as new shares were issued. Also, total equity decreased due to a huge decrease in unappropriated profit (-104.53% YoY). This had a negative impact on the book value, and thus the book value decreased to 192.85 (CY08).

The dividends per share have also shown also decreased. For CY03 and CY04, per share dividend was set at 8.5. This decreased to 6 per share for CY06 and CY07. There was no dividend given in CY08 due to the loss faced by the company. This decrease in dividend payout is not a unique aspect of Packages. CY08 was a very difficult year for businesses globally and especially in Pakistan. High inflation wreaked havoc with the demands for goods and decreased the buying power of the consumers. High rupee devaluation led to higher costs of goods (for imports and import derivatives) and also higher costs of financing (external/foreign debts). Both factors led to poorer performance of companies generally. Packages Ltd decided not to give dividends for CY08, as its performance was poor.

As the company was able post a higher return in FY09, the earnings for the shareholder too saw a worthwhile return, with its EPS jumping to Rs 48.16 from a negative Rs 2.53. This high increase was beneficial for the new shareholders, who had invested in FY08 as the company issued new shares in the market.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

A review of the paper and paperboard market indicates that Pakistan's consumption pattern is around 6 kg per capita, which is 1/10th of the world average. It is for this reason that the company, taking a long-term view, decided to establish a new paper & board production site with the requisite infrastructure in Kasur. The Bulleh Shah Paper Mill, which has a potential capacity of more than 500,000 tons per annum, shall satisfy the long-term demand ensuing from increasing urbanization, population growth, changing lifestyles of the rural population in the country and shifting trends from non-packaged to packed products. The company, as a premier paper and board supplier, is well equipped to take advantage of this growth potential provided the macroeconomic indicators of the country move in the positive direction.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, Packages is a very significant company. Though its performance has deteriorated significantly and it has witnessed a loss, Packages still remains a viable investment. The year 2008 was tough on the entire economy of Pakistan. Even then, Packages showed an increase in sales. Its problems lie in the decreasing gross profit margins. It should focus on improving these to sustain profits. Falling gross profit rates have not subdued investors. The new issuance of ordinary shares was easily absorbed in the market. As for the net profits, we can expect financing costs not to increase drastically again as the company has entered into a cross currency and interest rate swap on its loan from the International Finance Corporation (IFC). The company aims to retain its market leadership through its enhanced productivity and cost efficiency.

COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
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Offline malik

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #45 on: October 02, 2010, 10:20:11 AM »
Iwant to buy packages on what level should  i buy

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #46 on: October 02, 2010, 10:23:11 AM »
Iwant to buy packages on what level should  i buy

why pkgs and not any other good company ?
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Offline arauf

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2010, 10:33:29 AM »
I have bought 1000 at 101 and planning to buy more. Its a growth oriented company and will give good results in coming years.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2010, 10:38:15 AM »
I have bought 1000 at 101 and planning to buy more. Its a growth oriented company and will give good results in coming years.

 :biggthumpup:
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Offline Poker Face

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2010, 07:54:55 PM »
I don't think it is a good company. It is in my bad books. My advice will be to avoid it however it is your money and your decision to invest it wherever you want.

Offline malik

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #50 on: October 09, 2010, 01:40:41 PM »
thanks for  guidance

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #51 on: October 22, 2010, 04:03:32 PM »

eps 1.46
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Offline momo

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #52 on: December 11, 2010, 11:35:04 AM »
Why have its earnings dropped so sharply in a year's time? They went from an EPS of over Rs. 48 to Rs. 1.46. What happened? The earnings went from Rs. 4.4B to what they are now. Any specific news, or any expansion that has them bearing a loss?

Thanks.

Offline asimsaim

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #53 on: December 11, 2010, 02:23:55 PM »
Why have its earnings dropped so sharply in a year's time? They went from an EPS of over Rs. 48 to Rs. 1.46. What happened? The earnings went from Rs. 4.4B to what they are now. Any specific news, or any expansion that has them bearing a loss?

Thanks.

Perheps they r shifting their Plant away from city  ?

Offline Poker Face

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #54 on: December 12, 2010, 08:45:19 AM »
dear this is a shit share and completely unworthy to hold.  Instead u can buy siemens.   
« Last Edit: December 12, 2010, 04:27:39 PM by Poker Face »

Offline invincible

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2010, 11:40:15 AM »
dear this is a shit share and completely unworthy to hold.  Instead u can buy siemens. Packages is totally a shit filled ass.   


Is it a civilised way to oppose any script? Dont forget,many female members r also part of this forum.   :rtfm:

Offline Poker Face

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2010, 04:29:46 PM »
sorry. Nowadays it is so common that I did feel bad to write.

Offline arauf

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2010, 04:46:41 PM »
I feel Poker Face has got some huge loss from this share. Otherwise a company so bad can not have a price tag above 100. Or all people buying it are stupids. Fact is, it is actually a good company may be not giving good returns for the time being. Hope for the best Packages holders. I hope no one minds it.

Offline MAR

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Re: PKGS -- Packages Ltd.
« Reply #58 on: December 15, 2010, 01:27:59 AM »
Does anyone have the inside news .... What has sparked the Up Lock in Pack ... hefty money $19.5mln has come in y'stday into the mkt.