Author Topic: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.  (Read 450160 times)

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Offline psx Learner

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2359 on: November 04, 2019, 02:27:50 PM »
Oil Marketing Companies: Motor Spirit supported the industry

Event

Domestic petroleum products sales declined by 3% YoY in October 2019 (up by 7% MoM) that takes 4MFY20 volumetric decline to 6% YoY. During the month, MS recorded highest ever monthly sales with a 10% YoY increase. However, HSD and FO restricted the upside by posting a decline of 10% YoY and 19% YoY respectively. Playerwise analysis suggests, PSO and SHEL posted growth while APL recorded a decline YoY. Though, HASCOL volumes dropped sharply YoY but showed sharp recovery in market share sequentially. We maintain our positive stance on the sector with PSO/APL our preferred players.

Impact

MS saved the industry from a steep decline in Oct 2019: The domestic petroleum sales (Ex-non Energy) fell by 3% YoY (up 7% MoM) in Oct 2019 that restricted 4MFY20 volumetric sales decline to 6% YoY. During the month, MS recorded the highest ever monthly volumes of 0.681mn tons that depicts an increase of 10% YoY (up 5% MoM) on the back of (1) narrow differential with CNG prices and (2) anticipation of MS price hike in the following month.  On the other hand, HSD continues its losing streak in Oct 2019 with a decline of 10% YoY due to (1) lower seasonal demand from agriculture, (2) economic slowdown, (3) lower FO upcountry inland movement and (4) expected smuggling of Iranian diesel post US sanctions.

In black oil segment, FO sales dropped by 19% YoY due to lower demand from power generation.

PSO performered better YoY but depicted lower market share MoM as….: In Oct 2019, PSO was able to growth by 2% YoY as a result of surge in MS demand by 12% YoY. On the other hand, the company posted a relatively lower decline in HSD/FO of 7/4% YoY. The company secured a market share of 38/44/63% in MS/HSD/FO in Oct 2019 that depicts a MoM decline of 3/2% in MS/HSD due to recovery in HASCOL volumes, in our view.

….HASCOL rebounded sequentially in Oct 2019: During the month HASCOL showed an increase of 71% MoM where MS/HSD surged by 93/73% MoM. This shows a sequential increase in overall market share by 2.8ppts to 7.5% (11.1% in Oct 2018). However in YoY comparison, the company’s volumes plunged by 34% YoY, mainly led by decline in MS/HSD volumes by 5/33% YoY while FO sales were mute in Oct 2019.

APL underperformed while SHEL posted flattish growth: APL recorded a dismal performance with a decline of 5% YoY (down by 9% 4MFY20). Productwise analysis suggests, HSD and FO contributed highest to decline with 13% YoY and 6% YoY fall in volumes respectively. However, MS was able to post an increase of 5% YoY in Oct 2019. On the other hand, SHEL volumes increased by a meager 1% YoY (up 1% YoY in 4MFY20) where, MS/HSD rose by 1/6% YoY in Oct 2019. FO and aviation fuel sales remained muted during the month.

Outlook

We are positive on the sector as there are early signs of reduction in circular debt build up backed by IMF key agenda which will improve cashflow situation of PSO. White oil sales are expected to remain low before they recover in FY21 in anticipation of improved economic activities, in our view. PSO and APL remain our top pick.

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2359 on: November 04, 2019, 02:27:50 PM »

Offline rashid.Maria

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2360 on: November 04, 2019, 02:42:20 PM »
Oil Marketing Companies: Motor Spirit supported the industry

Event

Domestic petroleum products sales declined by 3% YoY in October 2019 (up by 7% MoM) that takes 4MFY20 volumetric decline to 6% YoY. During the month, MS recorded highest ever monthly sales with a 10% YoY increase. However, HSD and FO restricted the upside by posting a decline of 10% YoY and 19% YoY respectively. Playerwise analysis suggests, PSO and SHEL posted growth while APL recorded a decline YoY. Though, HASCOL volumes dropped sharply YoY but showed sharp recovery in market share sequentially. We maintain our positive stance on the sector with PSO/APL our preferred players.

Impact

MS saved the industry from a steep decline in Oct 2019: The domestic petroleum sales (Ex-non Energy) fell by 3% YoY (up 7% MoM) in Oct 2019 that restricted 4MFY20 volumetric sales decline to 6% YoY. During the month, MS recorded the highest ever monthly volumes of 0.681mn tons that depicts an increase of 10% YoY (up 5% MoM) on the back of (1) narrow differential with CNG prices and (2) anticipation of MS price hike in the following month.  On the other hand, HSD continues its losing streak in Oct 2019 with a decline of 10% YoY due to (1) lower seasonal demand from agriculture, (2) economic slowdown, (3) lower FO upcountry inland movement and (4) expected smuggling of Iranian diesel post US sanctions.

In black oil segment, FO sales dropped by 19% YoY due to lower demand from power generation.

PSO performered better YoY but depicted lower market share MoM as….: In Oct 2019, PSO was able to growth by 2% YoY as a result of surge in MS demand by 12% YoY. On the other hand, the company posted a relatively lower decline in HSD/FO of 7/4% YoY. The company secured a market share of 38/44/63% in MS/HSD/FO in Oct 2019 that depicts a MoM decline of 3/2% in MS/HSD due to recovery in HASCOL volumes, in our view.

….HASCOL rebounded sequentially in Oct 2019: During the month HASCOL showed an increase of 71% MoM where MS/HSD surged by 93/73% MoM. This shows a sequential increase in overall market share by 2.8ppts to 7.5% (11.1% in Oct 2018). However in YoY comparison, the company’s volumes plunged by 34% YoY, mainly led by decline in MS/HSD volumes by 5/33% YoY while FO sales were mute in Oct 2019.

APL underperformed while SHEL posted flattish growth: APL recorded a dismal performance with a decline of 5% YoY (down by 9% 4MFY20). Productwise analysis suggests, HSD and FO contributed highest to decline with 13% YoY and 6% YoY fall in volumes respectively. However, MS was able to post an increase of 5% YoY in Oct 2019. On the other hand, SHEL volumes increased by a meager 1% YoY (up 1% YoY in 4MFY20) where, MS/HSD rose by 1/6% YoY in Oct 2019. FO and aviation fuel sales remained muted during the month.

Outlook

We are positive on the sector as there are early signs of reduction in circular debt build up backed by IMF key agenda which will improve cashflow situation of PSO. White oil sales are expected to remain low before they recover in FY21 in anticipation of improved economic activities, in our view. PSO and APL remain our top pick.

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Offline psx Learner

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2361 on: November 05, 2019, 12:48:48 PM »
33.5 cross means again strong for 36-37

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2362 on: November 07, 2019, 11:56:41 PM »
Short karna chaise ?
Bilkol bhi nahin .. kionke last time jab yeh 38 36 se gira tha tou Without volumes 21 pe Aya tha which means punter nay baghair maal phainkay downside price discovery karaee thi.. aur 21 to 27 Kay levels takk khoob maal jama Kara tha..
Mera nahin khayal Kay inn levels par HASCOL ko short karnay se kuch hasil honay Wala hai han albatta political uncertainty nahin hue aur index 33000 ko maintain rakhay Raha tou buyer aur punters ke tussle chali tou yeh December main 50+ zaroor dikha sakta hai..
Lehaza filhal iss Mai short se parhaiz he behtar hai..
Aharoon Bhai ke observation zabardast hoti hai mashaAllah se .. :good :good :good

Offline 007

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2363 on: November 08, 2019, 12:15:32 AM »
Phir ban na ho jana  :thumbsdown_anim:

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2364 on: November 08, 2019, 12:21:19 AM »
Phir ban na ho jana  :thumbsdown_anim:
Yaar ye tou ghalat baat haai na ..  :tongue:

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2365 on: November 08, 2019, 12:27:40 AM »
Phir ban na ho jana  :thumbsdown_anim:
Yaar ye tou ghalat baat haai na ..  :tongue:
Woo Banda salmankaramat Jo kehta tha Hascol koe 10 par bhi nahin laiga ,searl 40 ka hai , pso below 100 , wtl sell ... Usko aap ban nahin kartay .. aur Jo Banda aap ko sahi mashwara dai Kay Bhai Hascol short nahin karna chaheay usko aap bool rahay hoo " Phir ban na ho Jana "..  uuu

Online salmankaramat

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2366 on: November 08, 2019, 01:59:08 AM »
Haan ji jo Banda ek din main 3 stance change karay us say tou yeh shikayat bhi NAHI ki ja sakti kay uski falan baat ghalt sabit hoi, maslan jab ATRL 80 ka hua tou mousoof nay farmaya gaya yeh 70 ki taraf jab ATRL 85 is hogaya tou 2 din kay baad hi mousoof farmanay lagay ab gaya 100 ki taraf. Isi tarah jab GHNI nay 70 Tora tou mousoof farma rahay thay ab yeh 72 bhi NAHI dikhaye ga woh 81 hogaya. Aik din main 3 martaba stance change karnay walay hazoor bhi kisi doosray ko baat kar saktay hain. Yeh tou Salammemembers bhai nay pichlay dino kaha hai kay bhai subah tumhara dhayan kuch hota hai, dopehar ko kuch aur shaam ko kuch aur.

Offline Salammembers

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2367 on: November 08, 2019, 02:35:38 AM »
Haan ji jo Banda ek din main 3 stance change karay us say tou yeh shikayat bhi NAHI ki ja sakti kay uski falan baat ghalt sabit hoi, maslan jab ATRL 80 ka hua tou mousoof nay farmaya gaya yeh 70 ki taraf jab ATRL 85 is hogaya tou 2 din kay baad hi mousoof farmanay lagay ab gaya 100 ki taraf. Isi tarah jab GHNI nay 70 Tora tou mousoof farma rahay thay ab yeh 72 bhi NAHI dikhaye ga woh 81 hogaya. Aik din main 3 martaba stance change karnay walay hazoor bhi kisi doosray ko baat kar saktay hain. Yeh tou Salammemembers bhai nay pichlay dino kaha hai kay bhai subah tumhara dhayan kuch hota hai, dopehar ko kuch aur shaam ko kuch aur.

bro,
idhar funda walaay tu several months saay silent haay-understandable,
aap b mainly uss category k player hoo while Haroon k liay psx oxygen haay :rtfm:
he has to play daily and his decisions r based on multiple strategies jis maay funda b included
but primarily he is trader technically day trader so mkt koo daily basis paar dhaiktaay huwaay he decides kis scrip
maay khailna haay and due to rapid fluctuation in index his dehan can change several times during trading hours which indeed
suggest he too is uncertain about reason for current tezi which he has openly admitted atleast couple of times.  ,
if i am honest then its probably been the best strategy during recent tezi as tezi was unexpected and index kept going up
in a broad based rally in a mkt having weak fundamentals.
Aap  ka time aayaee ga once v r more certain about turnaround in pak economy but for time being I will encourage members to
atleast read all haroon messages on daily basis and advise salman bro to ignore his sarcastic comments :console:

 

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2368 on: November 08, 2019, 10:44:28 AM »
Haan ji jo Banda ek din main 3 stance change karay us say tou yeh shikayat bhi NAHI ki ja sakti kay uski falan baat ghalt sabit hoi, maslan jab ATRL 80 ka hua tou mousoof nay farmaya gaya yeh 70 ki taraf jab ATRL 85 is hogaya tou 2 din kay baad hi mousoof farmanay lagay ab gaya 100 ki taraf. Isi tarah jab GHNI nay 70 Tora tou mousoof farma rahay thay ab yeh 72 bhi NAHI dikhaye ga woh 81 hogaya. Aik din main 3 martaba stance change karnay walay hazoor bhi kisi doosray ko baat kar saktay hain. Yeh tou Salammemembers bhai nay pichlay dino kaha hai kay bhai subah tumhara dhayan kuch hota hai, dopehar ko kuch aur shaam ko kuch aur.
Tum bas apna dehan aik rakhna Searl 40 Rupia pso below 100 Rupia HASCOL 10rs main bhi koe nahin laiga   :laugh:
Tere 25000 index ko rootay rootay market 29000 se 36000 cross Kar gaee aur tu beemar reports hee parhta reg gaya ..
 :tongue: :tongue: tu bola HASCOL koe 10rs Mai bhi nahin laiga aur main nay Tere iss challenge ko accept kartay huay 20rs k pass HASCOL main buy entry Dali aur Kama k dikhaya Alhumdolliah.. ankhain khol k dekho aaj bhi 39 pe hascol upper cap hai..

Offline psx Learner

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2369 on: November 08, 2019, 11:02:06 AM »
33.5 cross means again strong for 36-37
:rtfm: :good
today closed above 37.8 means 42-44Rs

Offline amvbfm

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2370 on: November 08, 2019, 11:02:56 AM »
Haan ji jo Banda ek din main 3 stance change karay us say tou yeh shikayat bhi NAHI ki ja sakti kay uski falan baat ghalt sabit hoi, maslan jab ATRL 80 ka hua tou mousoof nay farmaya gaya yeh 70 ki taraf jab ATRL 85 is hogaya tou 2 din kay baad hi mousoof farmanay lagay ab gaya 100 ki taraf. Isi tarah jab GHNI nay 70 Tora tou mousoof farma rahay thay ab yeh 72 bhi NAHI dikhaye ga woh 81 hogaya. Aik din main 3 martaba stance change karnay walay hazoor bhi kisi doosray ko baat kar saktay hain. Yeh tou Salammemembers bhai nay pichlay dino kaha hai kay bhai subah tumhara dhayan kuch hota hai, dopehar ko kuch aur shaam ko kuch aur.

Despite all that, imo his opinions are a lot better than yours. As Salam pointed out, aharoon is a trader and he has never claimed to be anything other than that. Therefore it isn't surprising that he changes his stance frequently (it is also a part of the online persona he has built here). He can be quite annoying at times and often pointless but he does make sense at other times. You - as well meaning and knowledgeable as you sound - unfortunately aren't as good as you think you are at judging the market (just my opinion). Your doom and gloom predictions rarely pan out and when they don't you conveniently disappear. Fundamentally a lot of the things you say are correct but inherently your mindset and risk averse nature is just not made for the stock market (and esp ours which rarely follows fundamentals). With your risk averse nature you would be better off investing in the fixed income market as your buy calls almost always seem to come when the market is booming (when almost anyone can make correct predictions) or at its highest point (always the worst point to buy). I agree with a lot of the general statements you make about the economy but then none of it leads to a coherent investment strategy. Yes, the automobile sector at its lowest, business is at an all time low. But isn't that an opportunity? Being a self proclaimed investor and not a trader would you not be better served buying HCAR and PSMC now when they are at their lowest? Lets say they double in 3 years that's still roughly around a 26% annual return. Where else will you get that? (I am assuming that being the systematic investor that you claim to be you do have certain benchmarks). But no you will instead tell people to stay away from the auto and cement sector when at its lowest and instead issue buy calls on crap like NETSOL and TRG when they have been pumped up to unrealistic highs.

Yes, the economy is in bad shape. But its certainly not at its lowest ebb. That point is behind us. Political uncertainty is also expected to lessen in the coming days. And barring something unexpected (which can never be ruled out in Pakistan and should be considered as a systematic risk that one needs to accept to invest in our market) things will get better gradually. So i don't see why one shouldn't cherry pick depressed sectors or undervalued scrips at this time. IMO, unless you are a day trader, the market is all about patience and the willingness to assume calculated risks. You seem to have neither and imo would be way better off in the fixed income market where there is no uncertainty.

   

Offline Salammembers

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2371 on: November 08, 2019, 11:14:28 AM »
33.5 cross means again strong for 36-37
:rtfm: :good
today closed above 37.8 means 42-44Rs

all credit should go to mm1964 :thanks:
zabardast

Offline Aahaf

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2372 on: November 09, 2019, 01:42:45 PM »
33.5 cross means again strong for 36-37
:rtfm: :good
today closed above 37.8 means 42-44Rs

all credit should go to mm1964 :thanks:
zabardast
true because of vision of 40 50 is given by him but calls de kai ghayab ho jana is also irritating for those who followed him

Offline Aahaf

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2373 on: November 09, 2019, 01:48:08 PM »
36 resistance, public yahan niklay gi  :skeptic: agar main hascol ka punter hota to iss bar is ko khecth ta hua  38.5 39 le jata public phir piche bagti phir iss ko 34 tak marta public ki phat jati phir 36 dikhata public lalchati phir right ka rate public kar kai 28 pe samait ta to 2 paisay bachtay mujhe  :laugh:
post laganay ka nuqsan punter nai khirki ka jaiza letay hue maal 1rs ooper samait liya apna gola to iss ready ka tha kyun kai right share awail karnay thay to 37 wala wapis 32 pe utha lia

Offline Aahaf

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2374 on: November 09, 2019, 02:07:02 PM »
Haan ji jo Banda ek din main 3 stance change karay us say tou yeh shikayat bhi NAHI ki ja sakti kay uski falan baat ghalt sabit hoi, maslan jab ATRL 80 ka hua tou mousoof nay farmaya gaya yeh 70 ki taraf jab ATRL 85 is hogaya tou 2 din kay baad hi mousoof farmanay lagay ab gaya 100 ki taraf. Isi tarah jab GHNI nay 70 Tora tou mousoof farma rahay thay ab yeh 72 bhi NAHI dikhaye ga woh 81 hogaya. Aik din main 3 martaba stance change karnay walay hazoor bhi kisi doosray ko baat kar saktay hain. Yeh tou Salammemembers bhai nay pichlay dino kaha hai kay bhai subah tumhara dhayan kuch hota hai, dopehar ko kuch aur shaam ko kuch aur.
:laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh: sadkay 29000 30000 index pe sirf aap ki zid ki wajah se jitna nuksan haroon ka hua aur kisi ka nahi hua hoga qty kai saath jum ke bethnay walay kai paon aap nai several scripts main bar bar nikalwa diye tezi pe discorage aur short pe us ko encourage kartay rahay specially searl at 130 acha hua aap ki call pe wtl total sell nahi kia warna ooper lena parta

Offline Abid70

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2375 on: November 10, 2019, 07:12:58 PM »
Haan ji jo Banda ek din main 3 stance change karay us say tou yeh shikayat bhi NAHI ki ja sakti kay uski falan baat ghalt sabit hoi, maslan jab ATRL 80 ka hua tou mousoof nay farmaya gaya yeh 70 ki taraf jab ATRL 85 is hogaya tou 2 din kay baad hi mousoof farmanay lagay ab gaya 100 ki taraf. Isi tarah jab GHNI nay 70 Tora tou mousoof farma rahay thay ab yeh 72 bhi NAHI dikhaye ga woh 81 hogaya. Aik din main 3 martaba stance change karnay walay hazoor bhi kisi doosray ko baat kar saktay hain. Yeh tou Salammemembers bhai nay pichlay dino kaha hai kay bhai subah tumhara dhayan kuch hota hai, dopehar ko kuch aur shaam ko kuch aur.
:laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh: sadkay 29000 30000 index pe sirf aap ki zid ki wajah se jitna nuksan haroon ka hua aur kisi ka nahi hua hoga qty kai saath jum ke bethnay walay kai paon aap nai several scripts main bar bar nikalwa diye tezi pe discorage aur short pe us ko encourage kartay rahay specially searl at 130 acha hua aap ki call pe wtl total sell nahi kia warna ooper lena parta
WTL kahan tak ja sakta hai?

Offline Aahaf

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2376 on: November 11, 2019, 01:53:44 AM »
1.8 closing required for further bullishness downside risk is open now support 1.13-1.20

Offline Salammembers

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2377 on: November 11, 2019, 10:19:21 AM »
hascol- mkt say maal ghaib, junta now desperate to buy at any rate huhu huhu huhu huhu
enjoy lottery :tongue:

Offline Aahaf

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Re: HASCOL -- Hascol Petroleum Ltd.
« Reply #2378 on: November 11, 2019, 11:41:44 PM »
hascol- mkt say maal ghaib, junta now desperate to buy at any rate huhu huhu huhu huhu
enjoy lottery :tongue:
salam bhai itna samja dain agar xr 28 open hona ho to iss ko before x kahan hona chahiye :confused1: