Author Topic: Interest Rate Forecast  (Read 314707 times)

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Offline optimistic

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1599 on: January 31, 2019, 06:12:16 PM »


Further rupee devaluations????

Yes , exactly.  We may see 145-150 range in near term.

142 tau last time touch kar k aaya hai...

Last time 144 touch kya tha, if ruppe devaluations on card then why institutions are buying pharmaceuticals today again huge volumes and mostly on upper caps. ???
TOP Scripts as below: Updated (28th Nov, 2016)
1. Wyeth, 2. SHJS, 3. FFLNV, 4. TGL, 5. BERG, 6. APL, 7. PKGS, 8. EPQL, 9. ISL, 10. FFBL. 11. TRIPF. 12 ASL

I am not perfect. Please do your own research my comments / or views may not prove accurate, nor i advise anyone to act upon on my recommendations, nor i accept any responsibility on me. Your money, your gain / or loss, before investing into any script better you gain sufficient knowledge of business and calculate risk accordingly as per your risk appetite.

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1599 on: January 31, 2019, 06:12:16 PM »

Offline aatradekhi

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1600 on: January 31, 2019, 06:21:57 PM »

Offline optimistic

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1601 on: January 31, 2019, 06:46:10 PM »


Further rupee devaluations????

Yes , exactly.  We may see 145-150 range in near term.

142 tau last time touch kar k aaya hai...

Last time 144 touch kya tha, if ruppe devaluations on card then why institutions are buying pharmaceuticals today again huge volumes and mostly on upper caps. ???

Any answer of above ? If we see rupee devaluations ahead then why gorra continuously buying from market ?
TOP Scripts as below: Updated (28th Nov, 2016)
1. Wyeth, 2. SHJS, 3. FFLNV, 4. TGL, 5. BERG, 6. APL, 7. PKGS, 8. EPQL, 9. ISL, 10. FFBL. 11. TRIPF. 12 ASL

I am not perfect. Please do your own research my comments / or views may not prove accurate, nor i advise anyone to act upon on my recommendations, nor i accept any responsibility on me. Your money, your gain / or loss, before investing into any script better you gain sufficient knowledge of business and calculate risk accordingly as per your risk appetite.

y2jharoon

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1602 on: January 31, 2019, 06:55:59 PM »
Start of year they usually buy

aharoon

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1603 on: January 31, 2019, 06:58:36 PM »


Further rupee devaluations????

Yes , exactly.  We may see 145-150 range in near term.

142 tau last time touch kar k aaya hai...

Last time 144 touch kya tha, if ruppe devaluations on card then why institutions are buying pharmaceuticals today again huge volumes and mostly on upper caps. ???

Any answer of above ? If we see rupee devaluations ahead then why gorra continuously buying from market ?
Becoz aik manhoos insaan " Saqib Nisar " see qoom ke jaan choot gaee hai..ab ham uski touheen Kar saktay Hain kionke ab woo CJ nahin.. jeena Haram Kara hua tha Saqib Nisar ke Engineering nay System ka..

Offline sundeepparwani

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1604 on: March 04, 2019, 09:31:00 AM »
Pakistan’s annual inflation reached a four year high of 8.21% in February 2019.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1605 on: March 21, 2019, 04:45:41 PM »
Pakistan Economy: Policy Rate - An important review ahead; we see status quo

The upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review has assumed an added importance in the context of Pakistan’s impending entry in a fresh IMF program and market’s mixed expectation of direction of policy rate.
We maintain our view of status-quo on policy rate (currently set at 10.25%) in the upcoming review (due on 28 or 29th Mar’19). We base our view on the future direction of CPI (average CPI of 6.9%), level of real interest rate (200bps, set to widen) and counter-productive nature of increase in CPI on other macro variables.
We do not read too much into the result of latest PIB auction (cut-off yield of 10-yr bond has increased by 30bps). However, we reckon the change in yield few days ahead of policy review may serve to skew market expectation to rate hike.
Barring volatility in perishable food prices, latest CPI data suggests all major heads in the basket, including core inflation, have started to trend down. We believe CPI is likely to peak out in Mar/Apr’19 at 8.2/8% before settling down to 7.5-7.8% by Jun’19.
Key upside drivers of CPI are; (i) increase in utility prices, (ii) devaluation, and (iii) seasonal uptick ahead of Holy month of Ramadan.
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Offline winner11

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1606 on: March 21, 2019, 04:48:09 PM »
Noted

Offline ksenewb

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1607 on: March 23, 2019, 01:19:07 PM »
3 month tbill yield in secondary markets at now 10.83%.

Note that last auction was at 10.55%

Offline HAMDANI_Punjtani

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1608 on: March 23, 2019, 01:38:57 PM »
DR can increase upto 25bps
BOP,ENGRO,TGL,KEL,HASCOL,Efoods,Dgkc,ffbl

Offline ksenewb

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1609 on: March 23, 2019, 03:18:54 PM »
DR can increase upto 25bps

I see at least 50 bps increase because secondary markets have already absorbed 28 bps.

Offline Farhan Kermani

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1610 on: March 23, 2019, 04:54:50 PM »
thats too much. 10.75%

y2jharoon

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1611 on: March 23, 2019, 06:27:11 PM »
kis bath ka too much bhai economy sahi karna ka leya hard step lena parta hn bhala 11 kar den

Offline Farhan Kermani

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1612 on: March 24, 2019, 09:12:46 PM »
fin charges will sky rocket.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1613 on: March 26, 2019, 11:53:29 AM »
CPI Expected at 9.12% YoY | Final Rate Hike of 75bps Likely in MPS

AHL
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Offline HasanZaheer

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1614 on: March 26, 2019, 12:23:05 PM »
When is the MPS going to be announced?

Offline Farhan Kermani

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1615 on: March 26, 2019, 12:40:57 PM »
29.3.19

Offline HasanZaheer

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1616 on: March 26, 2019, 03:36:33 PM »

Offline aatradekhi

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1617 on: March 26, 2019, 06:51:28 PM »
CPI Expected at 9.12% YoY | Final Rate Hike of 75bps Likely in MPS

AHL

Today BROKER / INSURANCE / COMPANIES was major buyer in BANKING SECTORS

 :console:

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Interest Rate Forecast
« Reply #1618 on: March 30, 2019, 11:23:52 AM »
SBP Increases Policy Rate by 50bps to 10.75%

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) from 10.25% to 10.75% in its latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) announced today. Moreover, the Reverse Repo (ceiling) and Repo rates have been effectively set at 11.25% and 9.25%, respectively.

Key Takeaways from the Monetary Policy Statement

§  SBP increased the policy rate by 50bps to 10.75% from 10.25% due to

o    Continued underlying inflationary pressures

o    Elevated Fiscal Deficit

o    Despite an improvement, a high Current Account Deficit

§  Balance of Payment situation eased with reduction in Current Account deficit and materialization of bilateral flows

o    CA deficit for 8MFY19 declined by 23% to USD8.8bn. 2MCY19 CA deficit declined by 60% YoY. Major role in contraction of CA deficit has been played by compression in imports and increase in remittances

o    SBP’s foreign exchange reserves increased to USD10.7 billion, still below the required 3 months import cover

§  Inflation for Feb-19 increased to 8.2%, while inflation for Jul-Feb FY19 increased to 6.5% (3.8% for 8MFY18). Higher prices of gas and electricity, perishable foods, and impact of exchange rate depreciation caused higher inflation compared to last year

§  As a consequence of stabilization measures undertaken by the government : -

o    LSM declined by 2.3% during 7MFY19 compared with 7.2% growth during SPLY

o    Agriculture sector also showing lackluster performance

o    Deceleration in consumer demand and development spending

o    As a result GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% for FY19

Beneficial for Banks Earnings…

§  We view that the banking sector earnings will benefit from the latest 50bps hike in the policy rate. We reiterate that banks with a low PIB base and high Current Accounts proportion are to be amongst the major beneficiaries. Banks’ topline with greater exposure towards advances would also benefit more from higher rates on lending.

§  Low PIB base and higher exposure towards short-term securities i.e., MTBs is helpful for banks as re-pricing of assets would fuel investment yields. We also highlight that banks with a high PIB exposure may see unrealized marked-to-market losses, which will affect book values. A high current accounts base would mute the impact of rising rates on cost of deposits.

§  We highlight BOP to benefit the most from rising rates owing to a very healthy exposure towards advances coupled with the fact that there are negligible PIBs on its investment book. We also highlight BAFL to be a major beneficiary from the AHL banking universe, with higher than average universe current accounts proportion (41% against 37%), lower than average PIB proportions (5.3% against industry average of 11.5%) and stellar ADR of 71%, second only to FABL (72%) in the industry (AHL universe average of 52.1%).

 

… Negative bearings for others

Levered companies to face the incremental financial cost

§  Interest rate hike has negative bearings for companies with outstanding debt balances (short and / or long).

§  Post the latest monetary policy decision, earnings of companies with higher financial leverage positions will become subject to rise in finance costs.

§  As per recent accounts, we highlight DGKC, FFBL, PSO, MLCF, ENGRO, ASTL, NCL and NML to be major losers given the higher quantum of debt in their capital structure.

§  Moreover, companies with high dividend yield (DY) may also struggle in the rising interest rate scenario amid lower relative appeal as compared to return on bank deposits.
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