Author Topic: SPWL -- Saif Power Limited  (Read 41870 times)

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2014, 07:08:31 PM »

Offline dhoom

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2014, 02:49:09 AM »
if u want to invest in power sector then invest in pakg.

Offline dhoom

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2014, 02:52:52 AM »
short term may be gain some capital but long term same like lal pir and pkgp.

Offline MZ

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2014, 12:17:07 PM »

The Bell
 
Saif Power Limited – Dividend play on offer

Saif Power Limited – a new listing on offer
Saif Holding Company, the majority shareholder (63.5%) of Saif Power Limited, offers 48.3mn shares (12.5% of paid up capital). 36.2mn would be offered through book building on 30th September 2014, while the remaining 12mn would be offered to the general public on the price determined through book building.
Company profile
Saif Power Limited operates a 225 MW combined cycle plant at Sahiwal, with one of the highest efficiency levels of 48% and 51% on diesel and gas respectively. The plant operates on 2002 policy with tariff based USD denominated IRR of 15%.
Higher than benchmark efficiency
The plant has outperformed on its efficiency benchmark during last two years. Every 1% improvement in efficiency is estimated to add PKR0.5/share to bottom-line.
Exposure to circular debt; comparable to other new IPPs
The plant interchangeably operates on gas and HSD, though the acute shortage of gas has led to curtailment for the plant. We highlight that 86% of the generation during 7MCY14 was on HSD. With generation likely to be skewed towards HSD, sustained circular debt could come up as a constraint on payout capacity.
We like the new yield play on the offing
We recommend subscribe with our preliminary estimates yielding a DDM based Jun-15 PT of PKR30/share. At the ceiling price of PKR30, the stock offers a CY15 dividend yield of 12.5% (Ex. PKR2.0/share already announced and accrued to successful bidders), which is close to Elixir IPP space (Ex. PKGP) average of 12.8%.

elixir

Offline MZ

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2014, 12:18:20 PM »
Saif Power Ltd | PE of 5.71x
Book Building @ Rs18-30/sh | Viable

 
Saif Power operates 225 MW combined cycle thermal power project with a net capacity of 209 MW, under the government of Pakistan's power policy 2002 on a build, own and operate basis in the Sahiwal District of Punjab.
 
The company is selling electricity to NTDCL through a power purchase agreement dated 30th April 2007 (the PPA) which has a tenor of thirty years.
 
Plant Details
Saif Power is a 225 MW combined cycle thermal power project having an operating capacity of 209 MW. The plant has two gas turbines and one steam turbine. The gas turbine is 6 FA machines procured from General Electric, France.
 
Fuel efficiency of the complex is one of the highest in the Pakistan market. Complex fuel efficiency determined by NEPRA on Gas is 51.2% and 48.5% on HSD. The cost of fuel is a pass through item as determined by the regulator, NEPRA.
 
Key Points
 
v  Offer for sale of 48.3 mn ordinary shares (12.5% of the Total Paid up Capital)
v  Book building portion of the offer comprises of 36.2 mn ordinary shares at a price band of Rs18-30/sh. General Public portion of the offer comprises of 12.07 mn ordinary shares
v  Total paid up share capital of 386.47 mn shares.
v  Total project cost Rs17.6bn
v  Project life 30 years (26 remaining)
v  Natural gas and HSD to use as fuel source for electricity generation
v  Net capacity of 209.78 MW
v  Gas supply agreement signed with the SNGPL limited for 25 years
v  Interim Dividend of 20% for period ended 31 March 2014.
.
Valuation | Book Building @ Rs18-30/sh | 1QCY14 EPS 1.34 | PE of 5.71x
We show our positive stance on Saif Power Limited as company has posted revenue of Rs3921mn in 1QCY14 with a net margin of 13% showing a consistent increase in margin.
Company is conscious regarding its Long Term Debt to Equity ratio and a consistent decline is been witnessed since CY2010 hence allowing a company to control its finance cost.
We expect earnings to grow in CY14 as compared to previous year.

SCS

Offline MZ

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2014, 01:42:56 PM »
Subscribe in the book building!
 

Saif Holdings Limited is offloading 48.3mn shares (12.5% of total shares outstanding) of Saif Power Limited, via an Offer for Sale (OFS). The OFS is comprised of Book Building Portion (75% of total offer - 36.2mn shares) for Institutions and HNWIs which will be conducted on 30th September, 2014. Saif Power Limited is a 225MW IPP, formed under the 2002 Power Policy, with ability to run on Natural gas & HSD.

The floor price set for the book building is PKR 18.0/share with ceiling set at PKR30.0/share. The residual 25% (12.07mn shares) will be offered to the general public at the price discovered through the book building process. The management also disclosed that the new shareholders of this OFS will be entitled to a cash dividend of PKR2.0/share, announced by the board with the 1HCY14 results.

Given the current gas scarcity situation in the country and reluctance of PEPCO to purchase expensive electricity from HSD, the companys historical capacity utilization during CY11-CY13 averaged at ~45%.  In our model, we have assumed that the plant will operate at a similar load factor of 50% in the medium term. We have further assumed that, power generation is anticipated to improve by 10% after an interval of every 5 years due to rising electricity demand. We highlight that SPL may become a victim of circular debt if the company is made to run the plant more on HSD as compared to cheaper Gas.

After analyzing the companys performance and future outlook, we recommend investors to participate in the book building process; at a price below PKR26.4/share. We flag upside to our base case TP if the plant runs more on HSD which amplifies any fuel savings made by company, however since HSD is an expensive fuel, we dont anticipate the plant run consistently on HSD. Comparison with peer companies on floor and our target price shows that the stock is better than other IPPs on P/E, P/B & dividend yield basis. Only at the ceiling price, do the multiples become lofty. Subscribe!

 taurus

Offline MMQ

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #25 on: September 27, 2014, 02:48:01 PM »
Is there a minimum investment amount?

Online SBM

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #26 on: September 27, 2014, 06:35:01 PM »
Is there a minimum investment amount?

1 million for book building
500 shares for public offer later
I hate waking up.

Offline MMQ

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2014, 08:38:28 PM »
Thanks :)

Offline 007

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #28 on: September 28, 2014, 12:38:59 AM »
i am bidding 2M with friends

cap per bid laga deni hain main  :biggthumpup:

Offline JAWAD

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #29 on: September 28, 2014, 07:41:35 PM »
i am bidding 2M with friends

cap per bid laga deni hain main  :biggthumpup:

bhai cap pay buy krnay ka faida kia ha ... ?

Offline 007

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #30 on: September 28, 2014, 10:45:44 PM »
ooper hee jaye ga

Offline JAWAD

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #31 on: September 29, 2014, 09:09:50 AM »
ooper hee jaye ga

Yaar eps taqreeban pkgp ki jitni ha and price bi us say oper to pkgp bhetar howa na is say

Online SBM

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #32 on: September 29, 2014, 10:46:14 AM »
ooper hee jaye ga

Yaar eps taqreeban pkgp ki jitni ha and price bi us say oper to pkgp bhetar howa na is say

 :laugh:
I hate waking up.

Offline 007

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #33 on: September 29, 2014, 11:06:54 AM »
dividend payment better lagti hai

Offline 007

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #34 on: September 29, 2014, 11:07:34 AM »
not to mention the on the best plant efficiency in the ipp sector as per report I read

Offline baqii

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #35 on: September 29, 2014, 04:07:48 PM »
Does anyone have the offical copy of the KASB Securities research paper for Saif Power where Rs.2 is declared as dividend to successfull bidders

http://investorguide360.com/latest-economic-news/ipp/

Offline Farzooq

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #36 on: September 29, 2014, 11:43:20 PM »
Book Building SPL: 'Neutral' at strike price of Rs22/share

Written as on September 29, 2014


Saif Power Ltd (SPL) is up for listing at KSE where the book building of the same would be held on 30th Sep'14 from 9am to 5pm. The price band for book building is Rs18/share to Rs30/share. The present offer is for 48.3mn ordinary shares (12.5% of the total paid up capital) whereby 75% (36.2mn shares) of the offer size being offered through book building to institutions and HNWI while the remaining 25% (12.1mn shares) will be offered to general public at strike price. In today's Value Seeker we highlight the key areas of the offer along with our recommendation.

Lower capacity utilization amid gas curtailments

SPL is a 225MW combined cycle thermal power project with two gas turbines and one steam turbine. The plant is on SNGPL network and requires 35mmcfd gas to continue its operation at optimal capacity. SNGPL being a gas deficient company failed to supply gas as per agreement since its Commercial Operation Date (COD) particularly in winter season which in turn slide down the capacity utilization to 40% in 2012 and 49% in 2013. Although, ECC allowed SPL on 30th Jun'11 to carry its operation on HSD whenever the gas would not be available during the year but low capacity utilization showed the government's inability to purchase costlier electricity generated through HSD. The average HSD tariff remained at Rs18.8/kwh since COD to 2013 as against average gas tariff of Rs3.4/kwh during the same period. Trade debt of ~Rs6bn as on 31March 2014 also indicate the liquidity stretch to the company caused by delayed payments from NTDCL.

Financial Highlights

Due to lower capacity utilization, SPL earnings were significantly lower than other power companies with same plant size (e.g. NPL & NCPL) since its COD.  Going forward, the fortune of the company hinges on LNG import from Qatar which could result in better gas supply to the plant. The company has also announced an interim dividend of Rs2/share (out of Rs3.5/share declared on 31Dec'13) to the subscribers of current offering. SPL has no dividend history except 35% declared in 2013. The following table highlights the key financials of the company.

Outlook and Recommendation

Although SPL has a very efficient plant installed by General Electric and Siemens with fuel efficiency of 51.2% on Gas and 48.5% on HSD (one of the highest in Pakistan) but less availability of gas and HSD being costlier fuel are major concerns for the company. However, LNG import from Qatar may improve the gas supply to the company and thus turn around its profitability.

Given the current scenario to remain intact we recommend 'neutral' at price of Rs22/share.

investcap
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Offline Nasirkhan88

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #38 on: October 03, 2014, 02:44:03 PM »
ALIBABA ki dekha dekhi idar b IPOs me participantion remarkabale hai. Lets c After Epql oversubscription .. SAIF ka kia hota hai.
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."

Offline MMQ

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SPWL -- Saif Power Limited
« Reply #39 on: October 03, 2014, 05:14:25 PM »
kis kis ka refund aagaya? :[