Author Topic: Valuations  (Read 3421 times)

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Offline Valueestimator

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Valuations
« Reply #-1 on: August 01, 2015, 12:24:04 PM »
I am creating this new topic to allow members to submit their own research, technical or fundamentals. This is not a forum for tips, its aim is  to enable members to post their own research and valuations.
AGIC UNIC KML SSOM POML KHTC FZCM   FASM BTL JDMT DGKC

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Valuations
« Reply #-1 on: August 01, 2015, 12:24:04 PM »

Offline shami

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Re: Valuations
« on: August 01, 2015, 02:20:30 PM »
I heard new IPO is expected to issue this year related to ZIC oil and other is related  to Amreli Steels Ltd.
if someone has any news plz do share  ::)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/sharif-s-growth-push-spurs-pakistan-s-biggest-ipo-in-eight-years

Offline Maverick

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2015, 02:34:36 PM »
Thanks for starting this. Valuations are not as much talked about as should benon forums like these dominated by traders.

Here I start with my valuation estimate for FEROZ.

For the current quarter, I shall divide Feroz's earnings stream into two segments: Sovaldi segment and traditional segment.

For Sovaldi segment:

Suppose 15000 bottles were sold for each month of the quarter (a conservative estimate as there should be ~3.5 million diagnosed Hep C patients in the country and Sovaldi got full approval in March and hence was available for the whole quarter).

Total revenue from Sovaldi = 15000*3*33000= 1500 million.
Sovali margins = 15%
Profits from Sovaldi = 225 Million
EPS impact from Sovaldi = 7.5 (as shares outstanding are 30 million)

For non-Sovaldi segment; lets suppose EPS is Rs. 6

Total EPS = 7.5+6 =13.5
Lets suppose Sovaldi sales for the next three quarters grow at a conservative rate of 10% and rest at 0%.

Then forward 1 year EPS = 13.5 + 14.25 + 15 + 15.9 = 58

At a conservative multiple of 18, the TP = Rs. 1044.

Offline afzalch

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2015, 03:02:35 PM »
I heard new IPO is expected to issue this year related to ZIC oil and other is related  to Amreli Steels Ltd.
if someone has any news plz do share  ::)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/sharif-s-growth-push-spurs-pakistan-s-biggest-ipo-in-eight-years
This topic already launched by SBM bro on 26th June 2015

Offline JF

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2015, 03:32:55 PM »
I heard new IPO is expected to issue this year related to ZIC oil and other is related  to Amreli Steels Ltd.
if someone has any news plz do share  ::)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/sharif-s-growth-push-spurs-pakistan-s-biggest-ipo-in-eight-years

Both applied for listing and expected to IPO available in end of august or mid september

Offline sarmina

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2015, 03:48:31 PM »
I think this a great thread created my valueestimator. My humble opinion is to use this thread for knowledge sharing, the way @maverik did the valuation for FEROZ. don't use it as leymaal/laomaal or just guessing.


Offline Stock_Cheeta

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2015, 03:52:38 PM »
Please calculate the  value of tpl?

Offline alishahid84

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2015, 04:06:25 PM »
Please calculate the  value of tpl?

Yes that would be very very helpful!



Offline Ali135

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2015, 04:34:56 PM »
need an expert valuation of HUMNL and GHNL.......  :thanks:

Offline Abid70

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2015, 10:28:17 PM »
Value estimator bhai and other seniors are requested to give detailed evaluations of quice and pace

Offline tariqkse2015

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2015, 10:33:35 PM »
Really  appreciate this educational academic thread

Very nice

Offline patient_invester

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2015, 01:40:32 AM »
Please calculate the  value of tpl?

 Yes. Please. This is much needed!

Offline HAMDANI_Punjtani

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2015, 09:48:26 AM »
I am creating this new topic to allow members to submit their own research, technical or fundamentals. This is not a forum for tips, its aim is  to enable members to post their own research and valuations.
Valueestimator pls give your valuations and TP's to start with.....
BOP,ENGRO,TGL,KEL,HASCOL,Efoods,Dgkc,ffbl

Offline sh_bangash

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2015, 02:26:17 PM »
Thank you for initiating this thread. Maverick can you.please explain first calculation for my understanding
15000 is sale, what is 3 and 30,000 used to come up with the total revenue of  1500 mil??
Keep your good work growing....

Offline Maverick

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2015, 02:46:34 PM »
sure,

15000 is the estimated number of bottles of Sovaldi sold per month. 3 is the number of months in the quarter i.e., April+May+June. Rs. 33000 is the price per bottle of Sovaldi. So this brings the total Sovaldi sales in the quarter to = 15000*3*33000=1500 million.

Hope that helps.

Offline sh_bangash

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2015, 08:32:05 PM »
Great!  Thank you. Can you  comment why you pick 18 as the multiple for it why not some other figure?

Regards
Shahid.

Offline sAr

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2015, 01:33:23 AM »
+1 maverick bhai. Good work

Offline dr.muhammad zia

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2015, 04:38:59 PM »
I'm friends with the monster that's under my bed
Get along with the voices inside of my head
You're trying to save me, stop holding your breath
And you think I'm crazy, yeah, you think I'm crazy,WELL THATS NOT FAIR

Offline investor2007

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2015, 07:52:56 PM »
Aswath Damodaran authority in enterprise valuation.....

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