Author Topic: Valuations  (Read 3090 times)

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Offline Valueestimator

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Valuations
« Reply #-1 on: August 01, 2015, 12:24:04 PM »
I am creating this new topic to allow members to submit their own research, technical or fundamentals. This is not a forum for tips, its aim is  to enable members to post their own research and valuations.
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Valuations
« Reply #-1 on: August 01, 2015, 12:24:04 PM »

Offline shami

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Re: Valuations
« on: August 01, 2015, 02:20:30 PM »
I heard new IPO is expected to issue this year related to ZIC oil and other is related  to Amreli Steels Ltd.
if someone has any news plz do share  ::)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/sharif-s-growth-push-spurs-pakistan-s-biggest-ipo-in-eight-years

Offline Maverick

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2015, 02:34:36 PM »
Thanks for starting this. Valuations are not as much talked about as should benon forums like these dominated by traders.

Here I start with my valuation estimate for FEROZ.

For the current quarter, I shall divide Feroz's earnings stream into two segments: Sovaldi segment and traditional segment.

For Sovaldi segment:

Suppose 15000 bottles were sold for each month of the quarter (a conservative estimate as there should be ~3.5 million diagnosed Hep C patients in the country and Sovaldi got full approval in March and hence was available for the whole quarter).

Total revenue from Sovaldi = 15000*3*33000= 1500 million.
Sovali margins = 15%
Profits from Sovaldi = 225 Million
EPS impact from Sovaldi = 7.5 (as shares outstanding are 30 million)

For non-Sovaldi segment; lets suppose EPS is Rs. 6

Total EPS = 7.5+6 =13.5
Lets suppose Sovaldi sales for the next three quarters grow at a conservative rate of 10% and rest at 0%.

Then forward 1 year EPS = 13.5 + 14.25 + 15 + 15.9 = 58

At a conservative multiple of 18, the TP = Rs. 1044.

Offline afzalch

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2015, 03:02:35 PM »
I heard new IPO is expected to issue this year related to ZIC oil and other is related  to Amreli Steels Ltd.
if someone has any news plz do share  ::)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/sharif-s-growth-push-spurs-pakistan-s-biggest-ipo-in-eight-years
This topic already launched by SBM bro on 26th June 2015

Offline JF

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2015, 03:32:55 PM »
I heard new IPO is expected to issue this year related to ZIC oil and other is related  to Amreli Steels Ltd.
if someone has any news plz do share  ::)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/sharif-s-growth-push-spurs-pakistan-s-biggest-ipo-in-eight-years

Both applied for listing and expected to IPO available in end of august or mid september

Offline sarmina

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2015, 03:48:31 PM »
I think this a great thread created my valueestimator. My humble opinion is to use this thread for knowledge sharing, the way @maverik did the valuation for FEROZ. don't use it as leymaal/laomaal or just guessing.


Offline Stock_Cheeta

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2015, 03:52:38 PM »
Please calculate the  value of tpl?

Offline alishahid84

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2015, 04:06:25 PM »
Please calculate the  value of tpl?

Yes that would be very very helpful!



Offline Ali135

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2015, 04:34:56 PM »
need an expert valuation of HUMNL and GHNL.......  :thanks:

Offline Abid70

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2015, 10:28:17 PM »
Value estimator bhai and other seniors are requested to give detailed evaluations of quice and pace

Offline tariqkse2015

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2015, 10:33:35 PM »
Really  appreciate this educational academic thread

Very nice

Offline patient_invester

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2015, 01:40:32 AM »
Please calculate the  value of tpl?

 Yes. Please. This is much needed!

Offline HAMDANI_Punjtani

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2015, 09:48:26 AM »
I am creating this new topic to allow members to submit their own research, technical or fundamentals. This is not a forum for tips, its aim is  to enable members to post their own research and valuations.
Valueestimator pls give your valuations and TP's to start with.....
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Offline sh_bangash

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2015, 02:26:17 PM »
Thank you for initiating this thread. Maverick can you.please explain first calculation for my understanding
15000 is sale, what is 3 and 30,000 used to come up with the total revenue of  1500 mil??
Keep your good work growing....

Offline Maverick

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2015, 02:46:34 PM »
sure,

15000 is the estimated number of bottles of Sovaldi sold per month. 3 is the number of months in the quarter i.e., April+May+June. Rs. 33000 is the price per bottle of Sovaldi. So this brings the total Sovaldi sales in the quarter to = 15000*3*33000=1500 million.

Hope that helps.

Offline sh_bangash

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2015, 08:32:05 PM »
Great!  Thank you. Can you  comment why you pick 18 as the multiple for it why not some other figure?

Regards
Shahid.

Offline sAr

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2015, 01:33:23 AM »
+1 maverick bhai. Good work

Offline dr.muhammad zia

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2015, 04:38:59 PM »
Can any body tell on me?NO! NO!Yo better not stop me
Better not flop me from who I wanna be It’s my destiny
So yo Mr. spinner Here come the winner Play on the bass I’m in the race

Offline investor2007

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Re: Valuations
« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2015, 07:52:56 PM »
Aswath Damodaran authority in enterprise valuation.....

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