Author Topic: UBL -- United Bank limited  (Read 170057 times)

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aharoon

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #779 on: February 24, 2019, 10:46:54 PM »
157 to 160 around good rates for short :skeptic:
:rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :dance :dance :dance
Chalay 160+ ke taraf Tarzan bann Kar..
Jithay di khooti othay jaa khalondi  : :thumbsdown_anim: :thumbsdown_anim:

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #779 on: February 24, 2019, 10:46:54 PM »

aharoon

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #780 on: February 25, 2019, 01:39:33 AM »
157 to 160 around good rates for short :skeptic:
:rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :dance :dance :dance
Chalay 160+ ke taraf Tarzan bann Kar..
Jithay di khooti othay jaa khalondi  : :thumbsdown_anim: :thumbsdown_anim:
Aisee Quality Shorts kabhi kabhi Experience hoti Hain like zamana 158rs par uppercap Kay liay laoo Kar raha tha aur apka Bhai for next day 161rs ka stoploss in mind  rakh Kar maal daal Raha tha  :clap1: :clap1: :shoaby: :shoaby:

Offline sundeepparwani

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #781 on: February 25, 2019, 10:40:35 AM »
UBL: Overseas provisions to keep ROE lower than peers, 'Hold'

 
February 25, 2019 (JS Research)

 
We update our investment case on United Bank Ltd (UBL) post release of CY18 annual accounts and management conference call, where we maintain 'Hold' on the stock with 13% capital upside to our Dec-2019 Target Price of Rs160.
We believe the stock has broadly priced in anticipated recovery in the bank's future Tier I ROE, which is expected to reach 19% by CY21F, from 14% during CY19E.
With 9% YoY deposits on domestic grounds, UBL was able to further improve its deposit mix by increasing share of zero-cost deposit mix (45%, +289bps YoY); while Repo borrowings, in-line with the industry, significantly declined by 70% YoY.
Domestic loan book expanded by 24% YoY and asset quality stayed in check.
However, Overseas loan book also contracted by 27% YoY (in US$), with further deteriorating asset quality.
The bank's overseas NPLs increased by Rs16bn during CY18 (4QCY18: Rs11bn) on account of fresh NPL accretion and rupee devaluation during the year.
Coverage ratio of overseas loan portfolio stands at 73%, which we expect to increase up to 80% during CY19E.
Amreen Soorani, FCCA

amreen.soorani@js.com

+ 9221 111-574-111 Ext: 3099

Offline Farzooq

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #782 on: February 28, 2019, 12:53:16 PM »
“BUY” stance maintained

Following the release of CY18 detailed accounts, we revise our Dec’19 target price to PKR 170/share and maintain our “BUY” stance on the stock, which provides an upside of 26.2% based on last closing. During CY19 we project a solid reversion in profitability of the bank with earnings expected to accelerate 48% YoY to PKR 22.1bn (PKR 18.1/share). Primary reasons for the uptick in earnings include absence of pension cost (PKR 6.7bn in CY18) and projected decline in provisioning expense (52% lower YoY). We estimate the combined impact of both these factors to be PKR 6.8/share. Moreover with the impact of the 450 bps hike in interest rates to fully come through in CY19 coupled with a strengthening deposit mix, we expect a likely strong upside in Net Interest Income (NII) which we forecast to clock in at PKR 63bn (+8% YoY). Further upside potential in the stock is based on i) Highly enticing valuations given recent hammering of the stock price, and ii) Domestic operations’ strength to bode well for the bank’s performance going forward.

Trading at an attractive multiple

UBL has faced a severe attrition in its stock price this year, portraying a sharp contraction of almost 20% FY19TD. The bank currently trades at a P/B of 0.98x, which is at a 53% discount to its last 5 year average of 1.5x. Moreover, the bank’s current multiple is at a 22% discount to our exit multiple of 1.2x. On a trailing basis the bank is operating at a current ROE of 11.6% (pension cost adjusted) compared to CY17 ROE of 15.7%. We project average ROE of the bank to clock in at 22.7% for the next five years (CY19-CY23).

The Gulf Gloom

International operations of the bank continue to haunt the overall performance of the bank and have been the prime contributor to the recent price attrition of the stock. International operations of the bank (including Export Processing Zones) have posted a daunting Loss Before Tax (LBT) of PKR 9.1bn compared to a loss of just PKR 25mn in CY17. The pressure on profitability has been led by the infamously stressed Middle East operations which contribute 16.4% to the bank’s total asset mix (UAE contributes 75% of international advances). The Middle East operations have posted an LBT of PKR 7.7bn in CY18 compared to a loss of PKR 419mn SPLY. Further drag on the bank’s performance has been caused by the addition in international NPLs which have primarily hammered the stock’s performance in the last few days. The bank has witnessed an accretion of 34% QoQ (PKR 10.6bn), whilst growing 68% YoY (PKR 17bn). The management stated that an additional NPL hit the overseas loan book during 4Q worth ~USD 58mn (~PKR 8bn) while the rest of the accretion resulted owing to PKR depreciation. UBL has booked an enormous PKR 13.1bn as provisioning expenses (PKR 5.6bn in 4Q) which have primarily been booked against international NPLs. Coverage on the international loan book has improved from 59.3% in CY17 to 73.4% in CY18 (stagnant QoQ). The bank’s management in the conference call has stated that taking into account the FSV benefit, the coverage on the international portfolio rises to 90%. Our further discussions with the management have revealed that the bank is fairly confident that major provisioning expenses on the international portfolio will not emerge,  nor is any significant NPL accretion likely. It is worth noting that the major uncovered NPL is found in the “upto 90 days” category where the unprovided for NPLs amounts to PKR 5.3bn. We however remain conservative in our assumptions and have assumed a net provisioning expense of PKR 6.4bn for CY19 (52% lower YoY).

Domestic franchise stands rock solid on the assets front…

On the asset side the bank has shown hand-in-hand growth with the industry in its gross advances during CY18 (+15% YoY). Coupled with the quantitative expansion the bank’s domestic asset quality has shown marked improvements, in stark contrast to the overseas loan book quality. Domestic infection ratio has settled at a remarkable 4.8% as at CY18 compared to 5.4% as at 3QCY18 and 6.4% as at CY17. Domestic NPLs have remained stagnant which is an impressive achievement for the bank. Going forward we remain conservative in our assumptions and we expect further NPL accretion during CY19, again primarily on the GCC loan book. We expect total NPLs to increase 7% YoY / PKR 5bn during the year with infection expected to settle at 8.3%, with loan growth expected to slow down to 10% YoY compared to 15% during CY18. We expect further provisioning this year which should beef up the bank’s specific coverage ratio to ~86% at the end of CY19 compared to 81% as at CY18.

…as well as the liabilities front

Total deposits of the bank have shown slow growth during the year (+7.3% YoY) in line with the industry trend (+8% YoY). The bank’s domestic portfolio has shown very impressive growth in terms of the quality of the portfolio. Domestic deposits contribute 81% to the bank’s total deposits as of CY18. UBL’s domestic current account ratio has settled at a concrete 46% compared to 43.4% SPLY. The strengthening core deposit portfolio of the bank during CY18 (which saw a rise in interest rates by 425 bps) shielded the bank from drastic increase in cost of deposits, and limited it to 2.9%, compared to 2.6%. We do however expect the ratio to show an uptick, forecasted to clock in at 4.1% despite a further accretion in total bank current account deposits which we expect to climb to 43% (of total deposits) compared to 40% at the end of CY18.

UBL announced earnings today for CY18 at PKR 15.5bn (EPS: PKR 12.65/share), depicting a YoY decline of 41%, above expectations. Ex-pension liability, earnings have contracted ~28% YoY primarily on account of heavy provisioning booked during the year (+5x YoY). During 4Q the bank posted a 61% QoQ profitability jump led by a 12.6x QoQ higher reversal on account of Workers’ Welfare Fund (PKR 2.1bn during CY18 against an expense of PKR 815mn SPLY) which came on account of a court order in its favour. Moreover, the expense in respect of the pension liability has been revised down from PKR 8,847mn to PKR 6,657mn. The combined impact of these events has caused an uptick of ~PKR 1.8/share QoQ. That said, hefty provisioning expenses continued, with the bank booking PKR 5.6bn during 4Q (+80% QoQ). The bank announced a dividend of PKR 3.00/share for 4QCY18, taking total payout to PKR 11.00/share for the year.  Net Interest Income of the bank settled at PKR 58.2 bn during CY18, remaining flattish YoY despite the rate hikes by SBP, as 13% YoY higher interest expense offset the 6% YoY higher interest earned. On a sequential basis NII increased 3% QoQ as impact of loan repricing has started coming through. NFI recorded an impressive 10% YoY increase during CY18 as the bank booked healthy improvements in FOREX income (+66% YoY) and fee income (+7% YoY). Fee income and FX income also portrayed a staggering improvement of 18.3% QoQ and 171% QoQ respectively. The bank booked a heavy provisioning expense once again worth PKR 5.6bn during 4QCY18, bringing total provisioning to PKR 13.1bn for CY18 (+5x YoY). We attribute the provisioning primarily to the bank’s UAE loan book. Effective tax rate was set at 41% during CY18 compared to 36% SPLY.
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aharoon

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #783 on: March 04, 2019, 09:34:47 AM »
Buy in dips

aharoon

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #784 on: March 04, 2019, 10:03:09 AM »
Buy in dips
UBL main koe short na dalayy... Choda tabaq Roshan kardain gay ye logg

Offline Farhan Kermani

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #785 on: March 04, 2019, 12:12:37 PM »
sirf UBL ya saray banks

Offline stuka

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #786 on: March 04, 2019, 12:39:08 PM »
sirf UBL ya saray banks

saray. there is a possibility of removal of super tax on banks
FASM, EFERT, NCL, DOL, TGL, SEPL

Offline Amjad Ali

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #787 on: March 04, 2019, 01:14:29 PM »
sirf UBL ya saray banks

saray. there is a possibility of removal of super tax on banks

bhai NBFCs say bhi supper tax khatam kardiya gaya tha jo k 1st of July 2019 say applicable hoga, per abhi tak tu koi farq nahi parah un k trend may
« Last Edit: March 04, 2019, 01:26:50 PM by Amjad Ali »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #788 on: April 22, 2019, 11:37:41 AM »
UBL: Earnings are expected to increase 5% YoY during 1QCY19

UBL will be announcing its 1QCY19 financial result on April 24th, 2019. The additional super tax along with continued provisioning expenses on the overseas loan book are the primary sources of pressure on the bank’s earnings. We expect the bank to post earnings of PKR 2.9bn (EPS: PKR 2.39), up by 5% YoY, but down 56% YoY if we adjust for the one-time pension cost booked during 1QCY18. On a sequential basis we expect a decline in earnings of 49% QoQ. Assuming normalized taxation, earnings are expected to contract 29% YoY (ex-pension cost). A 10% YoY/6% QoQ uptick in NII is expected to lend some support to the bank’s profitability while low capital gains and FX income are expected to keep NFI under stress. A 29% QoQ jump in OPEX is owing to absence of the one-off ~PKR 2.6bn reversal on the Workers’ Welfare Fund booked during 4Q.

 
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #789 on: April 23, 2019, 02:52:57 PM »
UBL to post EPS of PKR 2.72
We expect UBL post profit after tax of PKR 3.3bn (EPS: PKR 2.72) for the quarter which is
39% lower than that recorded for 4QCY18. Absence of reversal on workers welfare fund
and super tax charge are attributed to expected QoQ decline in the earnings. Lower provisioning and expansion in NIMs, however, will provide some support to the earnings. Larger
chunk of 4QCY18 provision charge is attributed to international loan book and the management in its last conference call didn’t rule out further provisioning for the first part of CY19.
We expect provisioning charge of PKR 2.4bn on its loan book for the quarter as against PKR
5.2bn booked in the previous quarter.
Super tax charge on 2017 earnings is likely to erode PKR 1.35/share from the 1QCY19 earnings. Along with the result we expect the Bank’s Board of Directors to announce a cash dividend of PKR 3.0/share.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #790 on: April 24, 2019, 01:22:44 PM »
1QCY19: Low provisioning – a pleasant surprise

UBL announced earnings today for 1QCY19 at PKR 4bn (EPS: PKR 3.30/share), depicting a YoY uptick of 46%, above expectations. Ex-pension liability, earnings have contracted ~39% YoY primarily on account of higher effective tax rate of 51% compared to 39% SPLY. A pleasant surprise that provided major respite to the bank’s profitability was 56% YoY/84% QoQ lower provisioning expenses, which have been the bank’s Achilles heel in recent times. The bank announced a dividend of PKR 2.50/share for the quarter.

Result Highlights

·         Net Interest Income of the bank settled at PKR 15bn during 1QCY19, rising 5% YoY / 1%QoQ.

·         NFI depicted a decline of 31% YoY owing to nominal capital gains booked this quarter (-99% YoY) and lower dividend income (-60% YoY), as per expectations. Encouraging omen for the bank was a 20% YoY rise in fee income.

·         Lower provisioning expenses (-56% YoY / -84% QoQ) for the bank provided relief to the bank’s profitability.

·         Effective tax rate was set at 51% during 1QCY19 compared to 39% SPLY owing to booking of additional super tax on CY17 earnings.

Recommendation

·         Currently, we have ‘BUY’ call on the stock with a Dec’19 target price of 170.1/share.

 
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virgopsx

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #791 on: April 30, 2019, 06:11:02 PM »
Banks ka firmly stand karna aur kisi house ke janib se shortsell deposit na hona iss baat ke gawahi dai Raha hai Kay another Hike in interest rate is on cards..
Market should be in trouble...

Offline Observer

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #792 on: April 30, 2019, 08:56:06 PM »
Banks ka firmly stand karna aur kisi house ke janib se shortsell deposit na hona iss baat ke gawahi dai Raha hai Kay another Hike in interest rate is on cards..
Market should be in trouble...
Bas kr do dear, don't think, they will opt another hike in interest rate

virgopsx

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #793 on: April 30, 2019, 09:01:24 PM »
Banks ka firmly stand karna aur kisi house ke janib se shortsell deposit na hona iss baat ke gawahi dai Raha hai Kay another Hike in interest rate is on cards..
Market should be in trouble...
Bas kr do dear, don't think, they will opt another hike in interest rate
Market main 11.00% wali Bids Reject hoo rahee hain..
At least 50bps tou increase done lagta hai... this time 11.25%

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #794 on: June 10, 2019, 09:32:46 PM »
Marain issay?? ;)
160 pe saans phol jati hai iski :skeptic:

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #795 on: June 12, 2019, 07:50:14 AM »
Marain issay?? ;)
160 pe saans phol jati hai iski :skeptic:
Kal bhi koe 154.50 par tabiat se offload kar raha tha .. :skeptic:

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #796 on: June 24, 2019, 11:18:57 PM »
Marain issay?? ;)
160 pe saans phol jati hai iski :skeptic:
Kal bhi koe 154.50 par tabiat se offload kar raha tha .. :skeptic:
UBL kab giray ga khul Kay ?

Offline Farzooq

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #797 on: August 05, 2019, 12:24:10 PM »
UBL: Earnings are expected to increase 45% YoY during 1HCY19

UBL will be announcing its 1HCY19 financial result on Aug 07th, 2019. We expect the bank to post earnings of PKR 9.1bn (EPS: PKR 7.43), up by 45% YoY, but down 17% YoY if we adjust for the one-time pension cost SPLY. On a sequential basis we expect an uptick in earnings of 25% QoQ. A 6% YoY/5% QoQ uptick in NII is expected to support the bank’s profitability while low capital gains on a yearly basis and higher quarterly provisioning expenses (primarily likely impairment charge on equity book) are likely to keep earnings in check. We expect the bank to announce a dividend of PKR 3.00/share taking total dividend for 1H to PKR 5.50/share.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: UBL -- United Bank limited
« Reply #798 on: August 07, 2019, 12:54:51 PM »
1HCY19: Earnings Rebound Continues

UBL announced earnings today in-line with expectations for 1HCY19 at PKR 9.2bn (EPS: PKR 7.49), depicting an uptick of 48% YoY and 27% QoQ. Excluding the pension liability earnings for the bank have fallen 15% YoY primarily owing to additional super tax booked during 1QCY19. NII growth, impressive control on OPEX and lower provisioning expenses all supported the performance of the bank. The bank announced a dividend of PKR 2.50/share for the quarter taking total payout to PKR 5.00/share for 1HCY19.
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