Author Topic: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.  (Read 246370 times)

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Offline MZ

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #959 on: October 20, 2017, 08:25:03 PM »
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd (PSMC): Higher volumes and weaker JPY to take earnings northward

Friday, 20 October 2017

By: Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt.) Limited
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd (PSMC) will announce its 3QCY17 results on Tuesday, October 24, 2017. We expect the company to post 3QCY17 EPS of PKR 11.93/share (PAT: PKR 982mn), up by 124% YoY and 43% QoQ, taking 9MCY17 EPS to PKR 36.13/share (PAT: PKR 2.97bn).
The expected increase in earnings is due to high sale volumes, as the company’s volumetric sale increased 30% YoY and 12% QoQ. We also expect company’s margins to rebound on the back of depreciation of JPY against USD on a YoY basis, and greater sale of high margin (more localized) products
The company recorded healthy sale numbers during 3QCY17, as the company sold 32.8k units during the quarter, up 30% YoY and 12% QoQ. Growth in volumetric sale is mainly attributable to strong sale from WagonR and newly launched Cultus, up 71% YoY and 56% YoY respectively.
Other major variants, Mehran (up 27% YoY), Ravi (up 21% YoY) and Bolan (up 3% YoY) also supported the volumes. We expect company to report revenue of PKR 24.9bn during 3QCY17 (9MCY17: PKR 71.7bn), up 40.0% YoY and 8.5% QoQ..

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #959 on: October 20, 2017, 08:25:03 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #960 on: October 24, 2017, 12:06:22 PM »
PSMC: We see EPS of PSMC to clock in at PKR12.6 (result due on 24th Oct), which reflects a significant 52%QoQ and 137%YoY reflecting a low base. As a result, earnings in 9M17 are likely to be up by 62% YoY to PKR36.8. As per usual payout policy, the result is unlikely to be accompanied by dividend announcement, though the company will likely have to increase its end of year payout or face penalty (7.5% of undistributed profits) in case it is less than 40% of PAT. We attribute this to (1) 3-4% price hike in Bolan and Ravi from Aug’17 coupled with 12%/37%QoQ jump in sales respectively and (2) improved sales mix due to stellar growth in Wagon-R volumes by 14%QoQ (vs total PSMC sales increasing by 12%QoQ) and discontinuation of lower priced Swift in Jun’17. As a result, we expect margins to improve considerably to 10.4% from a steep dip seen in 2Q17 at 8.4%.

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #961 on: October 24, 2017, 12:16:33 PM »
PSMC 9M2017 EPS clocks in at Rs37.63, up 65% YoY
 
October 24, 2017 (JS Research)

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 9M2017 results today, where the automobile assembler posted after-tax earnings of Rs 3,097mn (EPS: Rs37.63), up by 65% YoY, compared to Rs 1,874mn (EPS: Rs22.77) in 9M2016. Earnings during 3Q2017 came in at Rs1,105mn (EPS: Rs13.43), reflecting massive growth of 152% YoY. Earnings were in line with our expectations, where earnings growth during the quarter was mainly attributable to 46% YoY growth in net sales owing to 30% YoY jump in volumes and price increases subsequent to 3Q2016. In addition, economies of scale due to higher volumes and 8% YoY depreciation in JPY vis-a-vis US$ during the quarter led to margin accretion of 284bps YoY. Sequentially, earnings jumped by 61% QoQ which we attribute to (1) 13% QoQ growth in top line (volumes up 12% QoQ) (2) relatively stable currency movement during the period and price increases in Bolan and Ravi during Aug-17 leading to 151bps QoQ margin appreciation.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #962 on: October 24, 2017, 12:21:41 PM »
PSMC - Earnings grew by whopping 65% YoY in 9M17

Pak Suzuki Motors Co. Ltd. (PSMC) reported higher than expected 3Q17 EPS of PKR13.4 (up by impressive 61% QoQ and 2.5x YoY). On cumulative basis, earnings are up 65% YoY to PKR3.1bn, translating into an EPS of PKR37.6 in 9M17.

Total volumes for the company increased by 12% QoQ in 3Q17, leading to 13%QoQ increase in revenue.

Gross Margins improved to 9.9% in 3Q17 vis-a-vis 8.4% in 2Q17.

We attribute sequential growth in earnings to (i) a 3-4% price hike in Bolan and Ravi in Aug’17 coupled with 12%/37% QoQ jump in sales for the two variants, respectively, and (ii) improved sales mix due to stellar growth in Wagon-R volumes by 14%QoQ together with discontinuation of lower priced Swift in Jun’17.

Lower distribution and selling expenses (down 13% QoQ) is due to higher marketing expense last quarter attributed to new model launch.

Company booked a loss of PKR14.65mn (PKR0.18/sh) from associated company during the quarter.
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Offline MZ

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #963 on: October 24, 2017, 09:35:49 PM »
Flash Note


Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited

3Q EPS Jumps 1.5x YoY to Reach PKR13.43/share
 
·         Pak Suzuki Motors Company Limited (PSMC) announced its financial results for the 3Q2017 where the company reported PAT of PKR1.1bn (PKR13.43/share) marking an increase of 1.5x YoY – taking 9M2017 EPS to PKR37.63 (+65%).

·         During the quarter, the company’s topline grew 46% YoY on the back of strong volumetric offtakes. Recall that PSMC’s sales increased 30/12% YoY/QoQ led by strong performance of the Suzuki Wagon R and the new Suzuki Cultus; up 71% and 56% YoY respectively.

·         PSMC’s gross margins during the quarter increased by 2.8ppt against same period last year to clock in at ~10% as the company raised prices for Suzuki Ravi and Suzuki Bolan which form almost 30% of the overall volumetric sales.

·          The company experienced a marked increase of ~33x in Finance Cost which can likely be attributed to interest payments against customer advances at the rate of prevailing KIBOR +2% as per Auto Development Policy 2016.

·         During the outgoing quarter, the company recognized Share of Loss from Associated Company of PKR14.7mn. To recall PSMC had recently made a long term equity investment of PKR344mn in Techno Auto Glass Limited for an equity stake of 40%. The company’s effective tax rate for the quarter clocked in at 30%. 

·         In the Automobile space, we identify HCAR as our top pick where our Jun-18 PT of PKR707/share offers capital upside of 28% and dividend yield of 5% against last day’s closing price.

Offline MZ

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #964 on: October 24, 2017, 10:21:52 PM »

Offline MZ

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #965 on: November 13, 2017, 07:45:24 PM »
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): CAPEX upliftment could add excitement

Monday, 13 November 2017

By: AKD Securities Limited
With Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) recent CAPEX additions detailed in 9MCY17 accounts, raises our expectations of a possible extension to its product line in the coming six months.
Since the release of AIDP-II and inherent incentives to new entrants setting up the path to enhanced competitive pressures, incumbents have responded in disparate manners.
Picking up on observable trends regarding heightened CAPEX, leading to a new model rollout, or upgradation of previous offerings, we delve into provisioned CAPEX at the company level.
Detailing our observations, we highlight the increased CAPEX commitments (PkR3.6bn in 3QCY17 vs. PkR1.3bn in 4QCY16) and technical fee paid to the Holding company (PkR1.08bn paid during 9MCY17 vs. PkR0.83bn during 9MCY16) as indicative of operational developments, as pickup in both headers has preceded the last two CKD model launches.

Offline Farhan Kermani

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #966 on: November 13, 2017, 09:20:17 PM »
Such stellar performance for October.

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #967 on: November 15, 2017, 06:23:30 PM »
The Company is endeavoring to improve sales, profitability and diversity in its operations by upgrading the existing
products and launching new products. Pak Suzuki launched its first crossover ‘Suzuki Vitara’ on December 21,
2016 and 1400cc sedan ‘Suzuki Ciaz’ on February 8, 2017. Both vehicles received overwhelming response from
customers due to their drive, unique design, refined interior and advanced safety features. Launching of ‘Ciaz’
and ‘Vitara’ will facilitate the Company to penetrate in higher segment vehicles. The Company launched new
Suzuki Cultus on April 22, 2017. The new Suzuki Cultus introduced with power-packed features like ABS brakes,
airbags, electronic power steering, electric windows and electrically adjustable side view mirrors. Its modern
3-cylinder 1000cc k-series engine ensures great fuel efficiency and is designed to provide an extraordinary driving
pleasure. Suzuki WagonR is preforming exceptionally well in 1000cc hatchback segment. With the launch of
new Suzuki Cultus, Company has further strengthened its position in this segment. The new models were well
accepted by customers. We expect that launching of new models with advance features will attract the customers
and the demand for new models will increase.


https://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Third_Yearly%20Report-2017.pdf
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Offline SBM

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #968 on: November 15, 2017, 06:24:35 PM »
i believe they are working to bring another locally assembled model ..
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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #969 on: November 15, 2017, 06:26:26 PM »
i believe they are working to bring another locally assembled model ..

in 9m they have invested 2.5 billion and have committed to invest another 3.6 billion in the coming 12 months
"
12.1 Capital expenditure contracted for but not incurred amounted to Rs. 3,626 million (2016: Rs.1,344.7 million)."

has to be  a new model ...
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Online Alpha

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #970 on: November 15, 2017, 06:35:04 PM »
i believe they are working to bring another locally assembled model ..

yes 660 alto by march also I got pictures from an acquaintance of Suzuki's new plant near Lahore
or sheikhupra rd,not clear is it a new plant for cars or parts making plant but the infrastructure is huge

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #971 on: November 18, 2017, 06:59:12 PM »
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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #972 on: November 19, 2017, 04:33:44 PM »

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #976 on: November 21, 2017, 07:45:35 PM »
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): Launch of “Mega Carry” pick-up

Monday, 20 November 2017

By: Foundation Securities (Pvt.) Limited
Pak Suzuki (PSMC PA) is set to launch “Mega Carry” (pick-up) in the start of December 2017. The vehicle would be an imported variant from Indonesia with a price of Rs~1.5mn. We expect, the impact would start reflecting in 1QCY18 with an earning sensitivity of ~Rs0.9/sh on every 1,000 units sale
Pak Suzuki (PSMC PA) is set to launch “Mega Carry” (pick-up) in the start of December 2017. The company has already started booking for the vehicle that will be imported from Indonesia (2-3months delivery time). The price is set at ~Rs1.5mn.
Though Mega Carry is higher in price compared to other options available in market, the greater engine size (1,499cc vs 1,000cc/800cc of FAW Carrier/Suzuki Ravi) and better durability would encourage customers for the demand of this varia
We believe, the vehicle would be a timely addition to its commercial vehicle segment (Ravi currently) which is a direct play on Pakistan’s construction and economic activities revival.

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #977 on: November 22, 2017, 05:40:48 PM »
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: Who will pick-up the Pickup segment growth
 
Based on our previous assertions, we believe PSMC is set to announce a major CKD model upgrade/extension, where the launch of Mega Carry Xtra in the CBU pickup segment could be a push in the right direction over the medium term. Mapping out the trend of Pickup sales, we look at the growth potential of this burgeoning automotive segment. While datasets regarding this segment are incomplete (FAW does not report sales to PAMA), we opine over solid fundamentals backed by GoP policy actions and highlight the segment as a key beneficiary of CPEC investment spill-overs. Furthermore, taking a comprehensive look at PSMC's offerings in the segment, while comparing them to local offerings in the CKD category, where we highlight the prevalence of cost-based competition as the bedrock of competitive dynamics in the segment. In the meantime we expect status quo to prevail at the OEM for the medium term, where heightened CAPEX, increased investment in localizing high value components and focus on improved features augurs well for cushioning the OEM against erosion of market share dynamics. At a TP of PkR800.7/sh we believe the 57% upside on offer indicates significant under-pricing by market participants.
 
Why pickup segment matters: Mapping out the trend of Pickup sales, we look at the growth potential of this burgeoning automotive segment. While datasets regarding this segment are incomplete (FAW does not report sales to PAMA), we opine over solid fundamentals backed by GoP policy actions and highlight the segment as a key beneficiary of CPEC investment spill-overs. Additionally, having included the Hilux Single Cabin in our analysis, we highlight the steady sales of this variant in INDU's product mix, where repeat sales from commercial entities and GoP agencies has kept the variant in production since 1996.
 
Pickup market is a function of commercial fleet sales: While features, build quality and weight loading capacity are key factors in moulding buying behaviour, we believe only price competitive offerings will be materially impacting the OEMs profitability, and fending off market share from expected entrants (Sazgar Engineering, United Motors and Ghandhara). On the matter of the Mega Carry Xtra launched by PSMC in the CBU pickup category, we believe the hefty price tag (PkR1.5mn) will inhibit inroads into the local transport/logistics commercial sale market.
 
Investment Perspective: Tracing PSMC's most recent offering to its source, we focus on LCV and Pickup variants offered to customers in Indonesia by Suzuki Motors. Having a range of upgraded offerings with superior specifications to variants offered by PSMC, Suzuki Motor Indonesia offers a rudimentary blueprint for additional upgrades PSMC may offer, to compete against new entrants and fend of threats to market share. In the meantime we expect status quo to prevail at the OEM for the medium term, where heightened CAPEX, increased investment in localizing high value components and focus on improved features augurs well for cushioning the OEM against erosion of market share dynamics. At a TP of PkR800.7/sh we believe the 57% upside on offer indicates significant under-pricing by market participants.

Offline MZ

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Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
« Reply #978 on: November 23, 2017, 07:45:25 PM »
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): Estimates revised eyeing competition

Thursday, 23 November 2017

By: First Capital Equities Limited
We revise our earning estimates incorporating 9MCY17 financial results and re-examine our volumetric assumption in light of the recent volumetric growth and rising probability of potential competition, going forward.
We amend our volumetric assumption upward for CY18 by 2% to 131k units on the back of recent strong demand (Volumes: +14%YoY in 9MCY17). However, volume assumption from CY19 onwards is revised down to 134k/136k/137k units for CY19/CY20/CY21 from 138k/150k/165k as we expect new/reviving players to target PSMC’s market, having competitive advantage of reduced duties on both CKD and CBU parts for 5y and 3y, respectively.
Moreover, competition should constrain the ability of the company to pass-on incremental costs. However, expected sustained weakness in JPY against USD and favorable change in the sales mix will reduce potential impact of PkR depreciation vs. USD supporting margins.
Resultantly, a parallel revision in earnings of +10% takes place in CY18 , while CY19-CY21 earnings move downwards by 1-25%. Moreover, we take the opportunity to roll-over our target price to Dec’18, which after incorporating the revised estimates stands at PkR621/sh, offering an upside of 21.9% from the last closing