Author Topic: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.  (Read 391 times)

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Offline MZ

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HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #-1 on: November 30, 2016, 07:57:32 PM »
All about Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.

http://www.hwgc.com.pk/

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HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #-1 on: November 30, 2016, 07:57:32 PM »

Offline MZ

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« on: November 30, 2016, 08:02:29 PM »
Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills: Test Case
 
Haseeb  Waqas  Sugar  Mills  Limited  (HWQS),  incorporated  in  1992,  and
bearing losses since the past 4 years now appears to be a game changer
due to factory’s location change. In the recent 9M report for the period
ended June 30, 2016, the company notified that it has relocated its mill
from Nankana Sahib, Central Punjab to Muzaffargarh, Southern Punjab.
This news has appreciated the scrip by 122% from August 1, 2016 to date,
and  we  believe  that  the  rising  trend  shall  persist  in  the  future  since
currently it is an undervalued stock based on numerous reasons below we
explained:
Relocation; adding benefit to the company
In the company’s recent 9M report, there appears a decline in recovery
rate of 0.66% (8% vs. 8.66% in CPLY) which we attribute to lower capacity
utilization  and  lesser  number  of  working days  (80  days  vs.  97  days).  In
MY15, the firm reported a capacity utilization rate in processed cane of
28.27% vs. 50.01% in the same period last year, and a rate of 28.17% vs.
49.94% in sugar.
During 9MMY16, the company reports an LPS of PkR19 vs. PkR18 CPLY,
which we believe was due to lower sales volumes because of low recovery
rate and an increase in finance cost by 13%. The company has obtained a
loan of PkR600mn from Silk Bank Ltd that has increased the Debt to Equity
ratio of the company to 1.41x with total debt of PkR2.83bn as of June 30,
2016, (mentioned in financial accounts).
In the company’s recent report, officials have reported its forecast for the
next 3 years, on the basis of which we have run a sensitivity analysis with
different recovery rates and its impact on the profitability of the company
for MY17 as follows:
We believe that the company is going to exhibit sucrose recovery rate of
11% post-relocation to Muzaffargarh, where the neighboring sugar mills
(JDWS and ADAMS) have an average yield of 10.75%. Using this rate,  we
have forecasted future financials.
Recovery Rate 8% 9% 10% 11%
EPS/LPS (2017) (27.32)   (16.65)     (5.97)     4.71 
Source: Shajar Research
Sensitivity Analysis (Recovery Rate and EPS)
Projections (provided by the company) 2017 2018 2019
Sugar cane curshing MT 651,000     672,000     700,000 
Sugar cane rates/kg 215     230     240 
Sugar Price/KG 60     62     64 
Source: Company Accounts
Valuation
The firm is currently in losses with a negative equity, therefore P/E and P/B are not suitable
measures for valuation. Being optimistic that the company will record earnings in the future,
we have run a sensitivity analysis on varying P/E multiples showing an upside potential in
Sept’17TP  with  underlying  positive  earnings  of  the  company  (MY17E  EPS  4.71),  as  shown
below:
We shall be releasing a detailed report after the announcement of annual accounts of MY16.
Since the announcement of relocation (August 1, 2016), the stock price has appreciated by
122% to date with huge participation by investors’ attention as it has generated turnover of
762,804 shares within a month as compared to 3 months of 577,076 shares and 12 months
of  179,579  shares  respectively.  Currently,  the  stock  is  trading  at  PkR11.33  and  the  sector
P/S(x) stands at 0.54 which makes it an undervalued stock. We believe that the scrip has a
potency to rise by 29% on the basis of lower P/S(x) of 0.42 (9MMY16).

shajarcapital

Online SmE48

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2016, 08:08:18 PM »
7.50 Par AKD nae facebook par buy call di thi...10/12  din low volume par trade huwa,, aab last week sae taiz hy...AKD jis share ko buy bolta hy,yah wo wahin kutch din rahta hy yah sharply girta hy..phir mauja hi mauja..

Offline zelmc

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2016, 09:15:55 PM »
LPS for 9 months is 19.16
Expected LPS for 12 months is 24-25. On what basis AKD is giving a buy call. It is pure Satta.

Online SmE48

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2016, 09:42:52 PM »
plz ask AkD on AKDFACEBOOK..i did not question but bought at 8  (fortnight ago )and thinking of selling it around 13 tomorrow..

Offline ahsan28

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2016, 09:59:10 PM »
Plz share the link of AKD facebook page

Online SmE48

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2016, 10:48:41 PM »
Its same AKDfacebook..plz google it and then bookmark

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2016, 10:50:32 PM »
First address you will see in search is  Akd securties limited / facebook

Offline stocksfm

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2016, 11:05:12 PM »
HWQS - great volume see here - http://bit.ly/2fM18Du

Online sabir.hussain

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Re: HWQS -- Haseeb Waqas Sugar Mills Ltd.
« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2016, 10:08:19 AM »
cap :bigeyed:

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