Author Topic: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited  (Read 653684 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline taseer

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 91
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #779 on: September 08, 2011, 03:16:11 PM »
INSHAH  ALLAHA   :s1:

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #779 on: September 08, 2011, 03:16:11 PM »

Offline junaidph

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1038
  • Thanks Received: 7
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #780 on: September 08, 2011, 04:10:28 PM »
I am very optimistic about NML. Q1 2012 may not be very good and we may see a very unimpressive eps but after that things will improve insha Allah. Aap ne waise hi 1 dozen shares mein hath dala hua hai like AMTEX, NETSOL, BOP etc, my advice is to HOLD NML as I myself am going to HOLD it. Today it didn't make cap because buyers were expecting higher volumes but they were not generated. Accumulation in progress my friend. Expected to rise insha Allah. Target 55 before xd. And 70-75 by Q3 April, 2012.
Thanx poker bhai,  yeah i ve more kuchra items but they pay multiple times n vice versa ...netsol almost selling at my buying rates, amtex shoot keray ga so as bop bm date announce honay ka intazar hay aw nml ikatha kia hay but it has stopped rather going minus since then , from where it can rebound hold he rakhu na  :crying_anim02:

Offline Poker Face

  • Value Investor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4907
  • Thanks Received: 75
  • A small investor hoping to make it big
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #781 on: September 08, 2011, 04:20:21 PM »
Atleast I am holding it. Not going to sell even if it goes back to 40.
As per my understanding, it is a good share to keep at current rates.
I am expecting depressed Q1 earnings may be eps of 1-2 but after that, future seems bright.
When you are holding AMTEX and BOP, then it is much much safer and better to hold.

Regards

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22098
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #782 on: September 09, 2011, 10:23:23 AM »
Earnings bonanza, defying rising cost
NML’s earnings on a standalone basis grew substantially by 66% to PKR 4.84bn (EPS of
PKR 13.78) during FY11 from PKR 2.92bn (EPS of PKR 5.15) in the corresponding period
last year. Earnings were higher by 15% from our expectation of PKR 4.21bn (EPS PKR
11.97) mainly due to higher than estimated gross margin resulting in improvement in
textile operations along with better than expected support from other income. Furthermore,
the company also announced final dividend of PKR 3.30/share, higher from our expectation
of PKR 2.50/share.
During 4Q FY11 profit after tax went up by 23% to PKR 1.36bn (EPS PKR 3.87) from PKR
1.11bn (EPS of PKR 3.14) last year. However, on a sequential basis earnings declined by
4% QoQ, which can be mainly attributed to declining cotton prices.

Higher price, timely procurement supports margins
NML’s topline grew by a hefty 54% YoY to PKR 48.57bn, inline with our estimates during
FY11. We link higher product prices in the raw material segment along with increased
support from spinning and weaving segment as the major reason for the growth in topline
during FY11. Furthermore, the PKR depreciated by an average of 2% against USD during
the year, further supporting export sales which constitute ~80% of total sales.
Rising raw material cost during FY11 - mainly due to a jump in cotton prices by 92% along
with gas supply curtailment which led to usage of expensive fuel alternatives – led to cost
of sales for the company to jump ahead by 59% YoY. However, we believe timely and
strategic raw material procurement at PKR 8,000/maund arrested growth in cost of
production. Consequently gross margin attrition of 281bps to 16.2% was witnessed during
the year, higher than our estimates of 15.8% for FY11.

During 4Q FY11 topline improved by 49% YoY to PKR 13.70bn from PKR 9.21bn last year
as cotton prices declined by 16% QoQ, averaging at PKR 9,490/maund. However,
volumetric support from value added segment coupled by export order contracts already
placed lent support to the topline. However, limited pricing power offset the impact of
higher volumes, translating into lower gross margin of 15.4% against 18.2% in 3Q FY11
and 21% in 4Q FY10.

Core profitability remained upbeat
During FY11 NML posted impressive growth of 33% to PKR 4.57bn in core textile
operations, despite 29% YoY higher opex. The growth can be tagged to higher margins
from the spinning and weaving segment despite rising cost pressures. We believe that 4Q
FY11 favored homes textile and garment segment as well in terms of volumes, as lower
prices increased the demand in the said segment.

Dividends and exchange gains boost bottomline
Other income improved by 149% YoY during FY11, primarily on the back of dividend
income from strategic investments along with new investments. In addition, gain on sale of
NPL and divestment of PKGP coupled with higher than expected gains from forward
contracts and other recurring income, accumulated to PKR 2.45bn (EPS impact of PKR
6.25) for the period under review.
However, financial charges also increased by 42% to PKR 1.60bn during FY11 mainly due
to higher short term borrowing and increase in average KIBOR rate by 76bps to 13.30%.
However, interest burden for the company went down to 23% from 26% last year as EBIT
improved by 59%.

Future Outlook
NML’s major benefit arises from its well placed sales mix enabling the company to enjoy
higher margins. Moving forward, cotton prices remain a key concern having fallen sharply
by 19% since the start of FY12 to PKR 6,500/maund. Rising uncertainty of crop losses have
created panic following floods in Sindh; however, as per APTMA, the crop losses will be
limited to ~15% destroying 1-1.5mn bales. In our view, lower crop estimated at ~14mn
bales will affect the target of exporting surplus cotton while keeping domestic consumption
unaffected. Resultantly, we believe local manufacturers may not witness a significant price
hike similar to previous year, as prices will normalize once speculation over crop losses is
over. However, as crop season started early this year, we believe raw material
procurement began at lower levels which will allow manufacturers to average out inventory
procured at higher cost.

global sec
TOP PICKS
Engro efert ogdc ppl pso dgkc luck hubc ubl hbl atrl nrl nml efoods aicl hcar searl

Offline riz

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 116
  • Thanks Received: 1
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #783 on: September 09, 2011, 02:44:13 PM »
after result is ki rally nae bani aur volumes bhi kam hai.seniors please comment

Offline Poker Face

  • Value Investor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4907
  • Thanks Received: 75
  • A small investor hoping to make it big
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #784 on: September 09, 2011, 02:53:41 PM »
There are 3 reasons.
1. As individual investors were expecting a rally, big guns, by not buying,  are trying to lower the euphoria so that interest of individuals in minimized and accumulated at reasonable rates.
2. Expectations of depressed earnings in Q1 CY12 owing to inventory losses.
3. Unimpressive result of subsidiary, NPL and no dividend from it.

Thats how I figure it out.

Offline riz

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 116
  • Thanks Received: 1
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #785 on: September 09, 2011, 03:01:48 PM »
so phir isko kahan pe buy krna chahye.

Offline Poker Face

  • Value Investor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4907
  • Thanks Received: 75
  • A small investor hoping to make it big
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #786 on: September 09, 2011, 03:05:52 PM »
so phir isko kahan pe buy krna chahye.


Isko yahan per hi buy karna chahiye. Koi pata nahin kab ooper jana start ho jaye.

But it depends how much risk you can absorb.

Offline Trademaster

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 629
  • Thanks Received: 2
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #787 on: September 09, 2011, 05:51:05 PM »
@ Dear Poker


NML ke last 2 bullish trend yaad karo to ye aese hi move karta hai aik do din slow slow niche jata hai with declining volumes. then achanak aik din subah subha volume bhi barh jata hai aur price bhi teezi se up hojati hai. phir 2 -3 session tezi ke bad phir slow ho jata hai.

   

Offline Poker Face

  • Value Investor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4907
  • Thanks Received: 75
  • A small investor hoping to make it big
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #788 on: September 09, 2011, 05:58:13 PM »
@ Dear Poker


NML ke last 2 bullish trend yaad karo to ye aese hi move karta hai aik do din slow slow niche jata hai with declining volumes. then achanak aik din subah subha volume bhi barh jata hai aur price bhi teezi se up hojati hai. phir 2 -3 session tezi ke bad phir slow ho jata hai.

   

Yaar I don't have any problem even if it stays here for many months as long as I am satisfied the company is performing well. But the other brothers want it to shoot and make 3-4 consecutive upper locks so that they can make quick gains. Now as it is not performing as per their expectations, it is making them nervous. They will even start shouting if it goes back to 42-43 and rethink whether it was the right decision to buy NML or not. Sometimes, I feel this exactly is what big parties want to inculcate in small investors when they keep a share undervalued. Keep the share under pressure and when it starts to recover, people start selling at their buying rates on basis of 'no profit-no loss'.

But that is my thinking, I may prove to be wrong!  :biggrin:

Offline Small Investor

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 536
  • Thanks Received: 1
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #789 on: September 09, 2011, 09:22:49 PM »
Sometimes, I feel this exactly is what big parties want to inculcate in small investors when they keep a share undervalued. Keep the share under pressure and when it starts to recover, people start selling at their buying rates on basis of 'no profit-no loss'.

But that is my thinking, I may prove to be wrong!  :biggrin:
[/quote]

U r right as this how stock markets work. Otherwise if there is no pressure no body is willing to sell good company and in turn no commission for brokers and no tax for Govt.

Offline 007

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9130
  • Thanks Received: 74
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #790 on: September 10, 2011, 02:04:15 AM »
Dividend kha ker phir dekhain gay kahan closing hoti hai

Offline Trademaster

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 629
  • Thanks Received: 2
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #791 on: September 10, 2011, 12:31:24 PM »
Insha Allh XD price today price se bhi oper hogi. Hope some where around 50.2 to 51.5.

Offline junaidph

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1038
  • Thanks Received: 7
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #792 on: September 12, 2011, 08:44:55 AM »
Insha Allh XD price today price se bhi oper hogi. Hope some where around 50.2 to 51.5.
sabrun jameelun , 5-7 rupees mazeedun.. :goodc:

Offline zahidinam

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 74
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #793 on: September 12, 2011, 08:50:11 AM »
Insha Allh XD price today price se bhi oper hogi. Hope some where around 50.2 to 51.5.
sabrun jameelun , 5-7 rupees mazeedun.. :goodc:

ur mouth full of sugar and ghee

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22098
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #794 on: September 12, 2011, 11:23:08 AM »
In FY11 Nishat Mills Limited posted a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 4,844mn
(EPS: PKR 13.78) compared to PKR 2,915mn (EPS: PKR 8.29) in the same
period last year, marking a YoY increase of 66% on standalone basis. This rise
was mainly due to 54% YoY jump in revenue and 149% YoY rise in other
operating income. However on QoQ basis, company’s profitability dropped by 4%
to PKR 1,362mn in 4QFY11 as compared with PKR 1,424mn in 3QFY11 due to
45% decline in raw cotton prices in 4QFY11. This subsequently led to shrinkage
of gross margin by 279 bps on QoQ basis. Alongside the result, company also
announced a final cash dividend of PKR 3.3/share.

High cost eats away gross margins
NML’s topline inched up by a hefty 54% YoY to PKR 48.56bn in FY11 as
compared to PKR 31.54bn last year. The growth is attributable to better product
mix, depreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar, higher sales volume and sales
prices. On the other hand, higher raw material expenses on the back of increased
cotton prices and forced used of furnace oil due to lower gas availability jacked up
the cost of sales by 59%YoY. However, timely procurement of cotton helped the
company in limiting the contraction of gross margins to 16.2% from 19% last year.

Other operating Income has supported the bottomline
During FY11 total other operating expenses went up by 49% YoY whereas
financial cost increased by 42% YoY to PKR 1,601mn from PKR 1,127mn in
FY10, on the back of increased short term borrowing and higher interest charged
due to increase in discount rate. On other hand, other operating income of the
company has augmented by 149% YoY from PKR 982mn in FY10 to PKR
2,445mn in FY11. This improvement is mainly due to gains on foreign exchange
derivatives and higher dividend income earned from strategic investments along
with new investments.

Recommendation
Based on SOPT valuation method, our target price for June 2012 works out to be
PKR 74.10 per share, which offers an upside potential of 58.4% from its last
closing price of PKR 46.77 per share. Besides attractive upside potential, the
stock offers FY12F dividend yield of 7.1%. Thus we recommend a Buy.

ahl
TOP PICKS
Engro efert ogdc ppl pso dgkc luck hubc ubl hbl atrl nrl nml efoods aicl hcar searl

Offline taseer

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 91
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #795 on: September 12, 2011, 11:44:25 AM »

In FY11 Nishat Mills Limited posted a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 4,844mn
(EPS: PKR 13.78) compared to PKR 2,915mn (EPS: PKR 8.29) in the same
period last year, marking a YoY increase of 66% on standalone basis. This rise
was mainly due to 54% YoY jump in revenue and 149% YoY rise in other
operating income. However on QoQ basis, company’s profitability dropped by 4%
to PKR 1,362mn in 4QFY11 as compared with PKR 1,424mn in 3QFY11 due to
45% decline in raw cotton prices in 4QFY11. This subsequently led to shrinkage
of gross margin by 279 bps on QoQ basis. Alongside the result, company also
announced a final cash dividend of PKR 3.3/share.

High cost eats away gross margins
NML’s topline inched up by a hefty 54% YoY to PKR 48.56bn in FY11 as
compared to PKR 31.54bn last year. The growth is attributable to better product
mix, depreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar, higher sales volume and sales
prices. On the other hand, higher raw material expenses on the back of increased
cotton prices and forced used of furnace oil due to lower gas availability jacked up
the cost of sales by 59%YoY. However, timely procurement of cotton helped the
company in limiting the contraction of gross margins to 16.2% from 19% last year.

Other operating Income has supported the bottomline
During FY11 total other operating expenses went up by 49% YoY whereas
financial cost increased by 42% YoY to PKR 1,601mn from PKR 1,127mn in
FY10, on the back of increased short term borrowing and higher interest charged
due to increase in discount rate. On other hand, other operating income of the
company has augmented by 149% YoY from PKR 982mn in FY10 to PKR
2,445mn in FY11. This improvement is mainly due to gains on foreign exchange
derivatives and higher dividend income earned from strategic investments along
with new investments.

Recommendation
Based on SOPT valuation method, our target price for June 2012 works out to be
PKR 74.10 per share, which offers an upside potential of 58.4% from its last
closing price of PKR 46.77 per share. Besides attractive upside potential, the
stock offers FY12F dividend yield of 7.1%. Thus we recommend a Buy.

ahl

target price for June 2012 works out to be
PKR 74.10 per share, which offers an upside potential of 58.4% :shoaby:[quote author=Farzooq link=topic=143.msg59132#msg59132

Offline DEVDAS

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 753
  • Thanks Received: 4
  • Remember, A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #796 on: September 12, 2011, 04:51:35 PM »
Textile product prices all over the world has gone up so see lot of growth in this sector, specially NML.
Analyst is an expert who will know tomorrow why what he predicted yesterday didn't happen today!

Offline Poker Face

  • Value Investor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4907
  • Thanks Received: 75
  • A small investor hoping to make it big
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #797 on: September 16, 2011, 09:36:31 AM »
some activity going on ::)

Offline Trademaster

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 629
  • Thanks Received: 2
    • View Profile
Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #798 on: September 16, 2011, 09:37:34 AM »


 Re: NML -- Nishat Mills Limited
« Reply #791 on: September 09, 2011, 05:51:05 PM » Quote Modify 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@ Dear Poker


NML ke last 2 bullish trend yaad karo to ye aese hi move karta hai aik do din slow slow niche jata hai with declining volumes. then achanak aik din subah subha volume bhi barh jata hai aur price bhi teezi se up hojati hai. phir 2 -3 session tezi ke bad phir slow ho jata hai.



 :shoaby: :goodc:
« Last Edit: September 16, 2011, 09:50:28 AM by Trademaster »