Author Topic: Auto Sector  (Read 148564 times)

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Offline aharoon

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #879 on: June 13, 2018, 11:09:16 PM »
Renault ' KIA ' Nissan aur kuch pata nahin about dewan.. Chinese maal alag..
Itnay competition main INDU PSMC HCAR waghaira Kay margins bohat limited reh jain gay..
Yeh baat bhi notice plz

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #879 on: June 13, 2018, 11:09:16 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #880 on: June 14, 2018, 11:51:10 AM »
New entrants investing ~US$820mn
We shed light on auto companies that are entering the local market, their potential
investment size, capacities and the various segments that they are expected to
target during the initial years of entry. To recall, with the introduction of the new
Auto Policy (ADP 16-21) – which provides duty and other incentives to new
entrants over existing assemblers – there has been a flurry of companies that have
pledged investment in the local auto sector to grab a potential chunk of the
booming auto market.
These include the likes of Kia Motors from South Korea in collaboration with the
Lucky Group (Kia-Lucky Motors) and Hyundai Motors from South Korea with Nishat
Group (Hyundai Nishat Motors). As can be seen from the table, the potential
investments coming from the new entrants are estimated around US$820mn
(including US$110mn pending cases). Eight companies have been granted
Greenfield status so far under the Auto Policy, while two companies have received
Brownfield status and some cases are pending for approval. Renault, as per media
reports is expected to enter the market in collaboration with Al Futtaim Motors has
not yet completed the application process as per our channel checks, and is
therefore not included in this analysis.

Tough times ahead for existing assemblers
Total additional capacity from new entrants is estimated at 192,000 units, the bulk
of which is expected to directly target the market dominated by existing players
such as Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC), Indus Motor Company (INDU) and Honda
Atlas Cars (HCAR). The total automotive capacity (Passenger Cars, LCVs, SUVs)
of the country is expected to increase from existing ~280k units (including INDU’s
10k units CAPEX and FAW) to ~465k units within the next 2-3 years, which may
limit the breathing space for existing OEMs. We believe that existing OEMs can
likely employ a strategy of product diversification in order for them to protect their
market share.
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Offline rameez1

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #881 on: June 15, 2018, 01:37:52 AM »
I think Indus and HCAR will still be able to retain their market share due to no direct competition in their category of vehicles. PSMC will take the biggest hit as there is direct competition in 1000CC cars with the new entrants.

Offline dr.muhammad zia

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I'm friends with the monster that's under my bed
Get along with the voices inside of my head
You're trying to save me, stop holding your breath
And you think I'm crazy, yeah, you think I'm crazy,WELL THATS NOT FAIR

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #883 on: July 06, 2018, 01:06:10 PM »
Autos: Jun-2018 volumes to grow 20% YoY, headwinds to limit future growth
July 06, 2018 (JS Research)

We preview auto sales for the month of Jun-2018, where we expect volumes to grow by 20% YoY.
Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) volumes are expected to grow by 27% YoY, followed by 26% YoY and 15% YoY for Indus Motor Company (INDU) and Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC), respectively, owing to lesser Ramadan days coinciding with Jun-2018 compared to Jun-2017.
For tractors, Millat Tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) are anticipated to record sequential declines of 45% MoM and 40% MoM, respectively owing to completion of current Kharif sowing season.
FY18 auto volumes are expected to clock in at a record high of 258,654 units, up 21% YoY, however sector (new entrants, budget restriction on non-filers) and macro (rising interest rates and CPI) headwinds are expected to keep volumes of the Big Three in check going forward.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #884 on: July 12, 2018, 11:50:50 AM »
 FY18 closed on a strong note, regulatory challenge ahead!

As per the latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), sales for total passenger cars and LCVs in Jun’18 clocked-in at 18k units, down 15% MoM but up 20% YoY. 

Cumulatively, total sales in FY18 increased by 21% YoY, achieving highest ever sales of 258k units on the back of strong demand dynamics and new model attraction (Honda’s BR-V, PSMC’s Cultus, INDU’s Hilux Revo & Fortuner).

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) remained the top performer followed by Pak Suzuki (PSMC) depicting growth of 31% and 26% YoY, respectively in FY18. Whereas, INDU grew by 5% YoY due to capacity bottlenecks which are expected to resolve in ongoing quarter.

Tractors’ sales too closed the year on a strong note, growing 29% YoY, taking FY18 sales to highest ever number of 71k units (a high seen after eight years-  sales stood at 70.6k units in FY10). The growth is reflective of pro-agri policies and improving farm-economics. AGTL remained top performer during FY18 with sales up by 40% YoY.

Trucks and buses trend normalized during Jun’18 with a decline of 17% MoM. On cumulative basis, sales elevated by 15% YoY in FY18 on the back of strong demand from CPEC related activity.

Going forward, we highlight that recent budgetary measure prohibiting non-filers from purchasing new vehicle may keep auto sales in-check in FY19, where we project 1QFY19 sales to decline by 8%.

We maintain our liking for Indus Motors Limited (INDU) underpinned by strong balance sheet, superior margins and highest D/Y of 8% among the peers with a TP of PKR1,798/sh.

bma
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