Author Topic: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim  (Read 262423 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Toshi

  • Guest
FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #-1 on: October 10, 2008, 02:01:03 PM »
All About Fauji Fert Bin Qasim
« Last Edit: January 26, 2012, 11:09:34 AM by M&M »

Pakinvestorsguide

FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #-1 on: October 10, 2008, 02:01:03 PM »

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« on: September 15, 2009, 11:16:11 AM »
AKD Quotidian

FFBL: 2HCY09 to surprise!     Accumulate@PkR21.43

Its déjà-vu all over as what seemed to have been a difficult year for FFBL has suddenly taken on an upward turn, a similar story to last year. While various factors contributed to FFBL’s dismal performance in 1HCY09, increase in product prices (urea and DAP) coupled with increased primary margins and a stellar offtake (DAP) are likely to push earnings in 2HCY09 significantly upward. For full year CY09, we now expect FFBL to post earnings of PkR2.8bn (EPS-PkR3.04) compared to earnings of PkR2.9bn (EPS-PkR3.10) during the corresponding period last year – a marginal decline of 2.2%YoY. Along with the result, we expect the company to pay out a total dividend of PkR2.8 per share in CY09. Post the earnings revision, we upgrade our stance to ‘Accumulate’ on FFBL with a target value of PkR23.1 per share.

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2009, 02:34:48 PM »
In today’s Morning Buzz, we are presenting a detailed analysis of FFBL’s 1H2009
financial performance in light of its detailed accounts. The company’s bottom line
witnessed 31% decline at PRs498mn (EPS PRs0.53) as against PRs718mn (EPS
PRs0.77) during the same period of the preceding year. Notable decline in
profitability was the consequence of higher fixed cost due to scheduled plant
shutdown, lower margins on DAP sales and significantly higher interest charges
due to delay in the settlement of GOP’s subsidy along with recognizing PRs327mn
as share of loss from the joint venture. Given our DCF based target price of
PRs32, FFBL is offering a lucrative buying opportunity at current trading levels
with a decent 52% upside potential. PE09E and PE10F of the company have been
calculated at 6.6x and 5.7x, with 2009E and 2010F EV/EBITDAs of 4.1x and
3.9x. Meanwhile, ROE09E and ROE10F of the company stand at 28% and 31%.

Full year EPS-09 expectation: PRs3.2
Prospective PER-09: 6.6x

um@ir

  • Guest
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2009, 10:55:07 PM »
Some thing might happen in it !! should be under the "watch list" :)

Offline 007

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8614
  • Thanks Received: 74
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2009, 12:48:49 AM »
some thing happened went up a whole re, wht more ca one ask

Offline arauf

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 246
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2009, 11:11:59 AM »
It should reach 25 next week

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2009, 11:30:09 AM »
FFBL upgraded to ‘Buy’; Dec-09 TP Rs28/sh              Written as on September 28, 2009

Highlights

      •    Outstanding offtake to remain key driver, margins to improve on lower int'l prices 

      •    Better operating Cashflows to result through retired inventories 

      •    Recommendation - upgraded to 'Buy' with Dec-09 TP of Rs28/sh

 

In today's Value Seeker, We have revised our full-year CY10 earnings expectation for FFBL to Rs3.61/sh. Moreover, in the light of recent offtake performance, we have upgraded our Dec-09 TP to Rs28/sh and recommend ‘Buy’ on the scrip.

Outstanding offtake to remain key driver

FFBL is to emerge as a direct beneficiary of revived DAP demand and much better offtake this year backed by favorable pricing scenario, improved water availability, better support prices and increased agriculture credit. During 8MCY09, FFBL showed an impressive revival in it's DAP offtake, which improved by ~1.2 time YoY. Moreover, the company was able to retire much of its previously accumulated DAP inventory which had built up last year due to poor offtake back then. Apart from DAP, FFBL's granular urea sales during Aug-09 also showed fresh revival, increasing by 24% YoY.

Margins expected to improve amid lower int'l prices 

Favorable DAP pricing scenario is expected to bode well for FFBL in 3Q09. Though domestic prices have actually come down (-43% YoY in 3Q09), a greater turnaround was witnessed in int'l prices (-73% YoY). Additionally, int'l phosacid prices have also tumbled down by ~76% YoY in 3Q09, while domestic DAP prices are hovering ~46% above int'l prices. We expect company's gross margin to improve by ~8pps for 3Q09 on QoQ basis. Moreover, margins are expected to sustain at these levels in the 4Q09 since local demand is expected to remain robust during peak Rabi season, provided no turnaround in int'l prices comes around. 

Better operating cashflows to result through retired inventories 

Company's DAP inventory balances peaked in Sep08 at 253k tons due to virtually non-existent DAP sales that prevailed back then. Since then, FFBL has been able to retire bulk of its inventory due to revival in the offtake, with DAP inventory standing at only ~6k tons in Aug-09. Company's inventory turnover as a result has improved to ~6x in 1HY09 from last year's 2x, while further improvement is expected in the coming quarters. This will also help improve operating cashflows due to favorable working capital, alongside reducing burden of financial charges due to retirement of short term borrowings.

Recommendation - upgraded to 'Buy' with Dec-09 TP of Rs28/sh

Core reasons behind our value update for FFBL include (i) much improved volumetric growth (ii) higher domestic prices compared to int'l prices and improved margins (iii) compensation receivable from GoP reduced to Rs2bn from Rs12bn outstanding last year, thus improving cashflows (iv) diminishing inventory levels to improve working capital and short term borrowing is expected to retire further as a result of improved liquidity, thus reducing financial charges (-43% YoY expected). The scrip offers an upside potential of 15% against our revised Dec09 TP of Rs28/sh alongside current dividend yield of 13% a PE of 6.7x on our revised CY09 earnings estimates. We upgrade our recommendation to 'Buy' for FFBL.

Offline aliraza

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2550
  • Thanks Received: 17
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2009, 12:36:45 PM »
lock ho gy any news for ffbl member coments pls and update

Offline arauf

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 246
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2009, 07:05:33 PM »
Upper lock  ;D Good reult expected in BODM on 21st October

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2009, 11:24:51 AM »
FFBL: Healthy Margins and Buoyant Demand

We expect FFBL to record DAP offtake of 709Ktons for CY09 compared to
307Ktons last year on the back of lower DAP-Urea price differential and
stable wheat support prices

Phos acid prices have come down from an all time high of USD2,065/ton to
USD420/ton and have stayed at current levels despite the recent upsurge in
other global commodity prices; this decrease has positively impacted core
margins for the company which are expected to be at USD150/ton for CY09

Government recently announced wheat support price to continue at
PKR950/40kg together with increase purchase from 6.5mntons to
7.5mntons; this works in favor for DAP consumption for the country and
FFBL in particular

In light of aforementioned considerations we are revising our estimates for
FFBL; at present we have a DCF based fair value of PKR34.9/share reflecting
a potential upside of 29% over its current market price

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2009, 12:14:49 PM »
FFBL – 9MCY2009 earning preview

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) is scheduled to announce its financial result for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 on October 21, 2009. The company is expected to post net profit of PKR 1,989 million (EPS: PKR 2.13), exhibiting a significant surge of 266% YOY. FFBL‘s net profit for 3QCY2009 is anticipated to be PKR 1,490 million (EPS: PKR 1.61) versus a loss of PKR 174 million (LPS: PKR 0.19) in the corresponding quarter last year. We expect the company to declare an interim cash dividend of PKR 1.50 per share.

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2009, 12:20:08 PM »
eps 1.93 dividend 1.25

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2009, 12:49:10 PM »
eps 1.93 dividend 1.25

21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER ENDED 30/09/2009
21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim DIVIDEND = 12.5%(ii)
21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 3,100.351
21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 1,805.116
21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim EPS = 1.93
21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim BOOK CLOSURE FROM 15/12/2009
21-OCT-09 FFBL Fauji Fert Bin Qasim BOOK CLOSURE TO 21/12/2009

Offline MAR

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 64
  • Thanks Received: 1
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2009, 12:31:51 AM »

Dear Farzooq sb , pls advise an appropriate entry level, my motive is to avail dividend (& capital gain is welcome)
« Last Edit: November 20, 2009, 12:35:55 AM by MAR »

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 19924
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2009, 08:52:58 AM »

Dear Farzooq sb , pls advise an appropriate entry level, my motive is to avail dividend (& capital gain is welcome)

around 24
TOP PICKS
Engro fatima ogdc pol pso dgkc mlcf kapco npl ubl atrl nml efoods aicl hcar searl

Offline abcd

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 336
  • Thanks Received: 1
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2009, 08:58:01 AM »

Dear Farzooq sb , pls advise an appropriate entry level, my motive is to avail dividend (& capital gain is welcome)
idea not bad if available at low levels
Stock trading is a science and art too

Toshi

  • Guest
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2009, 11:55:28 AM »
Company Specific fertilizer offtake details

FFBL was the main beneficiary in October 2009 as it posted an increase of 37% and
9% in its urea and DAP offtake. The surge witnessed in FFBL sales if compared to last
month were mainly due to higher urea production of 60k tones. On the DAP front,
lower imports by other companies bode well for FFBL as its is the sole manufacturer
of DAP in the country. FFC urea sales were down by 20% as FFC’s Goth Machi plant
underwent an annual maintenance. Engro’s MOM DAP sales posted a phenomenal
drop of 92% on the back of lower inventory and no major import in the month of
October 2009.
Outlook
With striking demand outlook and favorable government policies, fertilizer sector
paints a rosy picture going forward. We anticipate total urea demand to be 6.2 million
tons for CY2009 out of which 5.1 million tons has been witnessed in 10MCY2009.
DAP offtake is expected to be 1.6-1.8 million tons for CY2009 on the back of improved
farmers’ liquidity and stable price outlook.

Offline Karuli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1023
  • Thanks Received: 3
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2009, 03:26:12 PM »

Fertlizer sector is best for investment specially in ENGRO

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2009, 11:38:18 AM »
Fertilizer: Fertilizer Off-take Robust as Ever

   Urea off-take has risen by 13% YoY to 5.5mn tons during 11MCY09; despite higher prices compared to last year

   DAP offtake has risen by 114% YoY to 1.5mn tons during 11MCY09 on account of lower prices for DAP during CY09

   Urea prices have hovered around PKR750/bag during 11MCY09 in comparison to PKR650/bag during CY08

   Farmer economics and improved seed varieties such as BT Cotton have helped secure higher fertilizer sales

   We maintain OVERWEIGHT stance on the sector with our top picks from the sector being ENGRO (PKR219/share) and FFBL (PKR35/share)
 

Offline Admin

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3915
  • Thanks Received: 15
    • View Profile
Re: FFBL -- Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2009, 11:56:26 AM »
bm by 20th jan