Author Topic: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited  (Read 1389992 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline aatradekhi

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 562
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7479 on: August 16, 2018, 02:07:56 PM »
HY18 2.40 VS 5.44
2ND QTR18 1.34 VS 3.24

SALE grow its good for PAEL

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7479 on: August 16, 2018, 02:07:56 PM »

Offline Fahd

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 965
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7480 on: August 16, 2018, 02:29:41 PM »
 :[

Offline james bond

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 15
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7481 on: August 16, 2018, 02:38:04 PM »
big players are playing wid small investors,,, maal nikalwaya ja rha ha,,, nothing wrong wid company's financials,, negative speculation playing its role,,

Offline mhmd

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 253
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7482 on: August 16, 2018, 03:38:46 PM »

I feel result is not good.....as everybody knows k pael ka business wesa nahi raha jo last year tha......even if you see the last quarter result and you will have clue...dalwance market le gya hay......this is my personal opinion

I told you  yesterday and now see.........ye result tak isi trah down pe down chalega......agar ye upar bhi gya to iske peche bhi punter hogy jo upar le jakar suddenly off load karege logo ko greedy bana ke.....now see the impact of bod from nowonwards

lol, loser, it's not cz of expected bad result.

its cz of world bank imposed fine on PAEL.

saath hi apna danka bajanay aa jatay hein do do takkay k jotshi. lulz.

Han bhai kya bola tha......bad result 58% down from the last year quarter......ab sukoon mil gya......now see 41 se 34 pe agya.....but phr bhi log nahi samjhte.....anyaway isne apna downward le lya hay already result se pehle.....so be cool now for time being

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21480
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7483 on: August 16, 2018, 04:37:57 PM »
TOP PICKS
Engro fatima ogdc pol pso dgkc mlcf kapco npl ubl atrl nml efoods aicl hcar searl

Offline aatradekhi

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 562
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7484 on: August 16, 2018, 05:08:14 PM »

Offline sAr

  • Active Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 609
  • Thanks Received: 6
  • All hail Value Investments
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7485 on: August 16, 2018, 05:50:28 PM »
Next quarter going to f*** this stock badly. Impact of higher FX will be in full swing resulting in margin attrition. Consumer electronics market is extremely competitive and as per channel check, Chinese electronics have badly hurt the pricing discipline. Fingers Crossed. It may test new low as punters are out.
Above mentioned comment is not a Buy/Sell recommendation. Do your own due diligence before Investing.

Offline HasanZaheer

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 204
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7486 on: August 16, 2018, 06:36:57 PM »
Next quarter going to f*** this stock badly. Impact of higher FX will be in full swing resulting in margin attrition. Consumer electronics market is extremely competitive and as per channel check, Chinese electronics have badly hurt the pricing discipline. Fingers Crossed. It may test new low as punters are out.

Chinese electronics are also imported and hence they are also affected by US$ appreciation, and to a greater extent - since everything in a Chinese manufactured unit is imported including labor, but in Pakistani made device everything is not imported.

Offline Deep_Value

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 208
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7487 on: August 17, 2018, 03:15:07 PM »
Next quarter going to f*** this stock badly. Impact of higher FX will be in full swing resulting in margin attrition. Consumer electronics market is extremely competitive and as per channel check, Chinese electronics have badly hurt the pricing discipline. Fingers Crossed. It may test new low as punters are out.

This is the explanation of the past that why PAEL fromm 130 to 30

Offline 007

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8953
  • Thanks Received: 74
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7488 on: August 18, 2018, 01:52:39 AM »
Next quarter going to f*** this stock badly. Impact of higher FX will be in full swing resulting in margin attrition. Consumer electronics market is extremely competitive and as per channel check, Chinese electronics have badly hurt the pricing discipline. Fingers Crossed. It may test new low as punters are out.

 :biggthumpup: good analysis

Offline SBM

  • Master Troll
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11656
  • Thanks Received: 100
  • Ouulman :)
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7489 on: August 20, 2018, 03:47:03 PM »
Next quarter going to f*** this stock badly. Impact of higher FX will be in full swing resulting in margin attrition. Consumer electronics market is extremely competitive and as per channel check, Chinese electronics have badly hurt the pricing discipline. Fingers Crossed. It may test new low as punters are out.

 :biggthumpup: good analysis

i have 500 shares  :dance
I hate waking up.

Offline 007

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8953
  • Thanks Received: 74
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7490 on: August 20, 2018, 04:08:09 PM »

i have 500 shares  :dance

 :laugh: itnay zayda


Offline theboss

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 215
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7491 on: August 27, 2018, 12:02:38 AM »
Next quarter going to f*** this stock badly. Impact of higher FX will be in full swing resulting in margin attrition. Consumer electronics market is extremely competitive and as per channel check, Chinese electronics have badly hurt the pricing discipline. Fingers Crossed. It may test new low as punters are out.

Chinese electronics are also imported and hence they are also affected by US$ appreciation, and to a greater extent - since everything in a Chinese manufactured unit is imported including labor, but in Pakistani made device everything is not imported.

But Chinese have offered trading in Yuan and SBP has setup settlement mechanism.

Offline HasanZaheer

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 204
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7492 on: August 27, 2018, 01:38:26 AM »
The ruppee fell against dollar cz of its own weakness, not because of dollar strength.
Hence, it must have fallen against YUAN as well.

And anyway, it takes alot of time for businesses to shift to a newer currency; even if its settlement is offered by the statebanks.

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21480
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7493 on: August 29, 2018, 09:27:05 PM »
Pak Elektron Limited: Margin pressure may persist in 2H18

Pak Elektron Ltd (PAEL) organized an investor briefing on 28th-Aug’18 to discuss 1H18 result and business outlook for 2H18. CY18 is expected to remain a year of hit-and-miss as power and appliances divisions face array of profitability inhibitors in CY18.
The margin environment remains challenging given steep devaluation. Management has guided for topline growth of 6% YoY for CY18 (vs 3-yr CAGR of 21%), which appears optimistic in the backdrop of 13% YoY decline in topline in 1H18.
High-base effect in sales from last year, primarily due to sales disruption faced by significant player in the refrigerator segment, may drag sales, growth going forward. PAEL witnessed 54-112% jump in other product categories (5% of topline), during 1H18.
Price increase in appliances division is expected in 1Q19 once new season sales start and hence margin pressure may continue through 2H18. Sales for power division shrunk 25% YoY due to emergence of new players and stiff price competition.
Our back of the envelop calculation suggests EPS of PKR3.6-4.2 in CY18, implying CY18E P/E of 9.9-8.5x. Clarity on margin remains crucial for future stock price performance, in our view, suggesting a range-bound price move in near-term. 
CY18 proving to be a challenging year: Pak Elektron Ltd (PAEL) organized an investor briefing on 28th-Aug’18 to discuss 1H18 result and business outlook for 2H18. CY18 is expected to remain a year of hit-and-miss as dynamics of power and appliances division host array of profitability inhibitors. PAEL is involved in the manufacturing and sale of domestic appliances (refrigerators, air conditioners, deep freezers) and electrical capital goods (transformers, switchgears, and energy meters).

2QCY18 result review: The latest results show earnings at PKR1,215mn (EPS: 2.40/sh) for 1HCY18, down 58% YoY due to; (i) 13% YoY decline in topline to PKR22.5bn, (ii) margin squeeze as gross margins came off by 510bps to reside at 25% compared to 31% last year, and (iii) 42% jump in finance costs from increased borrowings during the period. Granular analysis reveals poor revenue generation of power segment from weak pricing dynamics of the energy meter segment and lower market share of refrigerators emanating in the appliances division contributed to the said decline. On a quarterly basis, flattish topline was witnessed at PKR14bn while blow on margins on the back of deteriorated USD/PKR parity and elevated financial charges lead to 58% YoY drop in profitability to PKR679mn (EPS: PKR1.34/sh). 

Management guides to improvement amid murky waters: Along with the result, the management provided guidance and outlook on CY18 while also appraising on future plans.

#1 Management has guided for topline growth of 6% YoY for CY18 (vs 3-yr CAGR at 21%), which appears optimistic in the backdrop of 13% decline in topline in 1H18. Revenue target of PKR45.0bn in the current year is mainly led by expectation of 10% YoY growth in the appliances division that shall make up 68% of the topline for the company. To note, the mix has changed from that of CY16 where appliances made up 57% of the company’s sales.

#2 On the appliances side in 1H18 growth is expected to stem from all product categories with notable double digit growth in micro appliances followed by air conditioners. High-base effect in sales from last year, primarily due to sales disruption faced by a significant player in refrigerator category, may drag sale growth. PAEL has witnessed 54-112% growth in other product category (5% of topline). Refrigerators and air conditioners’ gross sales are expected to grow by 4% YoY and 30% YoY, respectively, for CY18. We believe the company has set an ambitious target for itself; however the same transpires at a cost of elevated discounts that are expected to continue at current levels to retain market share. PAEL targets to add televisions and washing machines to its product line with expected capex of PKR110mn (stage 1: PKR10mn, stage 2: PKR100mn) and PKR500mn, respectively. The products may carry margins north of 20%, PAEL management expects to generate PKR700mn from television sales alone.

#3 The power division closed 1HCY18 with 25% drop in revenues, where management expects CY18 revenues from the division to transpire a nominal decline of 2% YoY. To deliver the same, the power division shall post 3.6x jump in revenues to PKR11.7bn in 2H18. We view guidance on 2H sales growth as optimistic due to price competitiveness prevalent in the distribution and energy meter segment. EPC segment is expected to record revenues at PKR3.2bn (down 14% YoY) as the company sits with an order book of PKR3.6bn out of which the company expects to realize PKR2.1bn this year. Moreover, distribution transformer, power transformer, energy meters, and Switchgears are expected to add PKR6.4bn, PKR0.7bn, PKR1.4bn, and PKR2.5bn, respectively, to topline.

#4 Price war in energy meter and distribution transformers segment, rise in commodity prices, and devaluation dented gross margins. Pressure on margins is expected to prevail in 2H18. Price increase in appliances division is expected in 1Q19 once new season sales start. What remains to be seen is the extent of price increment to pass on the aforementioned cost inflation for the appliances segment. Overall gross margins for the period came in at 25% compared to 31% in the same period last year. Since power business operates in a regulated environment largely with no premium pricing and weak pricing power in appliances segment overall margin suppression is expected to prevail in CY18.

#5 Other notable takeaways include: (i) Tax credit available to the company amounts to PKR 1.5-2bn, which is likely to be utilized by 2020, (ii) availability of inventory for the next four months (appliances division) alleviates concerns of depreciation in the short term, and (iii) continuous deleveraging may translate to lower financial charges going forward.

Investment perspective: Although PAEL is not formally under our coverage, our back of the envelope calculation suggests EPS of PKR3.6-4.2 in CY18, implying CY18E P/E of 9.9-8.5x. Clarity on margin remains crucial for future stock price performance, in our view, suggesting a range-bound price move in near-term. We flag (i) sharp upward movement in commodity prices, (ii) unfavorable FX movement, particularly PKR/USD parity, and (iii) heightened competition as key risks to the company.

bma
TOP PICKS
Engro fatima ogdc pol pso dgkc mlcf kapco npl ubl atrl nml efoods aicl hcar searl

Offline ajaz115

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 132
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7494 on: September 06, 2018, 11:29:18 AM »
iss ka koi future hay bhai ??????

Offline rz khan

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 209
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7495 on: September 15, 2018, 03:37:13 AM »
Forecast : 17 Sep : Monday (Pak Electron)

PAEL is confused on charts and avoided either way till the time went near 31.6 OR deliver better performance on charts.

Offline 202wide

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 42
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7496 on: September 16, 2018, 09:56:21 AM »
The main reason of journey from 130 to 30 is company busted working capital last December 2017 company apply for 1200-M sukkuh and now PACRA withdraw PAEL credit rating seems situation going towards worst. 

Offline BiscuitBro

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 18
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7497 on: September 16, 2018, 12:15:43 PM »
The main reason of journey from 130 to 30 is company busted working capital last December 2017 company apply for 1200-M sukkuh and now PACRA withdraw PAEL credit rating seems situation going towards worst.

?? The reason for withdrawing was due to redemption of commercial paper that were issued last year. They were not even Sukuks. How can a rating agency give/maintain rating for instrument that has alrwady been redeemed?

Offline Technical Analyst

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 19
  • Thanks Received: 0
    • View Profile
Re: PAEL -- Pak Elektron limited
« Reply #7498 on: September 16, 2018, 08:55:07 PM »
Forecast : 17 Sep : Monday (Pak Electron)

PAEL is confused on charts and avoided either way till the time went near 31.6 OR deliver better performance on charts.



It is trading above bearish(downtrend) channel on H1,i have resistance at 33.8 on my charts so a break higher beyond that is a significant level to breach for buyers. Upside targets 34.3,34.8 and 36.4 respectively.
i'll buy half of my position at 32.35-32.40 and half at 31.4 (if seen) with stops just below 30.

is there any option to upload picture ?
« Last Edit: September 16, 2018, 08:57:53 PM by Technical Analyst »