Author Topic: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited  (Read 60903 times)

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Offline Farzooq

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HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #-1 on: October 21, 2009, 09:16:36 AM »
All About Habib Bank
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 10:44:50 AM by M&M »
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HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #-1 on: October 21, 2009, 09:16:36 AM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« on: October 21, 2009, 09:17:04 AM »
HBL: 9MCY09 Result Preview

Habib Bank Limited is scheduled to have its board meeting on Saturday Oct 24'09 to consider 9MCY09 results. On a consolidated basis, we expect HBL to post NPAT of PkR9.61bn (EPS: PkR10.55) in 9MCY09 against NPAT of PkR11.07bn (EPS: PkR12.16) in 9MCY08, a decline of 13%YoY.
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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2009, 12:58:29 PM »
Habib Bank Limited (HBL) is set to announce 9MCY09 results on October 24, 2009 where we
expect the bank to post PAT of PKR10.6bn (EPS: PKR11.62), ?4% YoY. Jump of 171% YoY in the
provisioning against NPLs and 5% YoY anticipated decrease in the non?interest income are
expected to be key drags to profitability. During 3QCY09 net earnings are expected to stand at
PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR4.42) up 27% QoQ on the back of expected 2% QoQ increase in the net
interest income along with 24% QoQ decline in the provisioning expense. At yesterday’s closing
price of PKR124.2/share, the share is trading at a premium of 13% to our December 2009 Target
Price of PKR109.9/share with a CY09E P/E and P/BV of 9.3x and 1.3x respectively. At current
levels the stock seems fairly valued.

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2009, 11:50:41 AM »
HBL: EPS of Rs10.76 likely in 9M2009
HBL is expected to post earnings of Rs9.8bn (EPS Rs10.76)
versus earnings of Rs9.6bn (EPS Rs10.59) in 9M2008 – a
growth of paltry 2%YoY. Despite strong growth in net interest
income due to higher lending rates and robust advances
growth, rising Non Performing Loans (NPLs) and higher
administrative expenses would stifle the growth.
We expect Net Interest Income (NII) to increase by 20% to
Rs31.3bn as against Rs25.9bn recorded in the corresponding
period last year. However, provisions for NPLs are expected
to witness a jump of 173%YoY to Rs7.3bn as against only
Rs2.7bn recorded in 9M2008, hence negating the impact of
higher NII. Moreover, a 8% rise in administrative expenses to
Rs16.5bn is likely to exert further pressure on earnings. We
don’t expect any payout with the results.
HBL is currently trading at 2009E PE & PBV of 8.8x and 1.7x,
respectively. Hence, we maintain our ‘Sell’ stance on the scrip
at current levels.

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2009, 12:52:31 PM »
HBL’s 9M2009 earnings expected at PRs10bn (EPS PRs11.06)
We expect HBL to post net earnings of PRs10.1bn (EPS PRs11.06) in 9M2009 as
compared to PRs9.6bn (EPS PRs10.56) in the similar period of last year - a growth
of 5%. In 3Q2009, we expect the earnings to remain at PRs3.5bn (EPS PRs3.87),
up by 8% and 15% on Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q basis. For 9M2009, the bank’s net
interest income (NII) is expected to reach at PRs31.7bn versus PRs26.0bn in
9M2008. An assumption of 20% growth in NII is dully supported by higher
margins and volumetric growth. Moreover, non-interest income is also expected to
increase by 5% to PRs7.7bn on the back of higher expected gain on sale of
investments. However, expected growth in total income is mitigated by 2.8fold rise
in credit provisioning expenses at PRs7.6bn and 7% higher administrative
expenses at PRs16.1bn. At current trading levels, we recommend ‘Sell’ on HBL.

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2009, 01:54:25 PM »
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2009
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 16,539.649
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,443.689
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd EPS = 11.39
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2009
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 16,573.037
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10.572.705
26-OCT-09 HBL Habib Bank Ltd EPS = 11.61

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2009, 01:56:59 PM »
abib Bank Limited (HBL) has announced its 9MCY09 result. On a consolidated basis, HBL has posted NPAT of PkR10.4bn (EPS: PkR11.47) in 9MCY09 against NPAT of PkR11.1bn (EPS: PkR12.16) in 9MCY08, a decline of 6%YoY. This was against our forecasted NPAT of PkR9.5bn (EPS: PkR10.40) where deviation from our forecasts is largely to significantly lower total provisions. HBL has posted NPAT of PkR3.88bn (EPS: PkR4.26) in 3QCY09, up 22%QoQ. Sequential increase in earnings is largely due to a 56%QoQ drop in total provisions.

HBL has a 6.28% stake in Platinum Habib Bank (PHB) in Nigeria and accounts for the investment under the equity method (share of profit). As per HBL detailed accounts (note 6.2), PHB may have to increase its provisioning, where HBL’s share is PkR4bn. Recall that in 4QCY08, HBL booked a dilution gain of PkR4bn on investment in PHB. 

HBL is currently trading at a CY10F Tier-I P/B multiple of 1.38x. At current levels, we have a Reduce stance on HBL based on our target price of PkR115/share. However, we will be looking to update our investment case soon

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2009, 11:35:39 AM »
Banks: HBL - Remain Neutral

Our revised target price for HBL is PKR118/share and we recommend a ‘Neutral’ stance on the scrip

Full year CY09 PAT is expected at PKR11.5bn (EPS: PKR12.6) on a consolidated basis. This reflects YoY decline of 27% over CY08

For CY10 we expect 38% growth in the bottomline with PAT expectation at PKR15.8bn (EPS: PKR17.37)

The Nigerian Bank issue is expected to act as a short term negative catalyst as HBL has yet to take any additional provisioning impact on its P&L

Key risks to our forecasts include 1) impairment of PHB investment, and 2) changes on the regulatory front
 

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2009, 11:15:49 PM »
Buy HBL with stoploss 117.98 Bullish trend intact.

Offline ihashishin

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2009, 02:06:48 PM »
considering buying today

any comments?
DISCLAIMER: Caveat emptor.

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2009, 02:33:40 PM »
considering buying today

any comments?

buy with stop 118

Offline ihashishin

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2009, 02:46:18 PM »
stop is 122 for me
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Offline ihashishin

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2010, 04:24:34 PM »
i am all out of HBL
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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2010, 11:40:03 AM »
HBL - off shore risk on the forefront

Preliminary sector-wide audit by the Nigeria Central Bank reveals a staggering 3Q09 loss of Naira394bn/~PRs220bn for Platinum PHB (6.3% owned by HBL accounted under the Equity Method).

The proportionate share of HBL would now be potentially inflated to PRs13.4bn as against PRs4bn unrealized amount disclosed in the foot notes of consolidated 3Q09 results.

The damage to book value (NAV) of HBL is imminent, however we believe the impact would be capped at carrying value of investment in Platinum PHB ie ~PRs9.5bn (~PRs10/sh) which if routed through the P&L would take 4Q09 bottom-line into the red.

We maintain our Under-perform rating on HBL which trades at 2010E P/B of 1.3x. In the meantime, we keep our earning estimates unchanged until visibility on loss treatment and audited statements of Platinum PHB are released.

Offline ihashishin

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2010, 01:50:02 PM »
HBL - off shore risk on the forefront

i shouldnt buy it back should i?
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Offline Learner7

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2010, 02:28:47 PM »
HBL - off shore risk on the forefront

i shouldnt buy it back should i?

weigh prior option.

Offline ihashishin

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2010, 02:41:16 PM »
DISCLAIMER: Caveat emptor.

Offline Learner7

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2010, 02:44:37 PM »

Offline ihashishin

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2010, 03:06:32 PM »
oops..heh

thanks
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Offline Learner7

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Re: HBL -- Habib Bank Limited
« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2010, 03:20:04 PM »
LL    :speak_cool:
« Last Edit: January 21, 2010, 03:21:47 PM by Learner7 »