Author Topic: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited  (Read 96166 times)

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Toshi

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2010, 11:47:13 PM »
Day trade only

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2010, 11:47:13 PM »

Offline azam56

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2010, 07:31:47 AM »
ALLIED BANK LIMITED

Analysis of Financial Statements Financial Year 2004 - 2003 Q 2009


OVERVIEW (January 22 2010): Established in Lahore in 1942, Allied Bank Limited is one of the largest banks operating in Pakistan with more than 700 branches in almost 300 cities and towns. The bank offers a full range of retail, commercial and corporate banking services with a view to service delivery through technology. Additionally, it provides general banking services to the agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout Pakistan. Almost 89% of the bank's deposit base is composed of deposits from the urban areas.

The bank's fundamental strength lies in its strong lending capability, as well as providing a variety of financial services, which has allowed ABL to diversify and enhance its deposit base. The bank also conducts international operations in the UK whereby it caters to the needs of the bank's domestic corporate and other customers in financing import and export transactions. Here, ABL's products include foreign letters of credit, guarantees, remittances, acceptances and collections.

RECENT RESULTS 2003 Q 2009

Pre-tax profit of Allied Bank increased by Rs 1,727 million to Rs 7,476 million and after tax profit by Rs 1,273 million to Rs 5,013 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to Rs 5,749 million and Rs 3,741 million, respectively in the corresponding period of last year. Resultantly, earnings per share increased to Rs 7.05 during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 5.26 for the corresponding period of previous year.

During the nine months under review, net mark-up/interest income increased by 39.1%, which was mainly due to the improved deposit mix. Mark-up/interest spread rose to 6.3% from 5.5% as compared to corresponding period of previous year. Mark-up/interest income grew by 44% over corresponding period of previous year, whereas mark-up/interest expense rose by 48.2%. During the 3Q09 under review, mark up/interest income increased by 29.9% over 3Q08, while Allied Bank has been able to restrict the increase in mark-up/interest expense during the 3Q09 to 30% over the 3Q08, resulting into growth of 29.8% in net mark-up/interest income during 3Q09.

Non-mark-up/interest income rose to Rs 4,695 million during the nine months period ended September 30, 2009, a growth of 61.0% over corresponding period of previous year. The increase was primarily led by higher investment banking fee income, dividend income and capital gain on sale of securities due to better performance of the stock market. Non-mark-up/interest expense increased by 21.8% during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to the corresponding period of previous year. However, it has been controlled during 3Q09 to 12.0% over the corresponding period of previous year.

Deposits increased to Rs 301,588 million as at September 30, 2009. The average deposits increased by 6.8% during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 over the corresponding period of 2008. Advances as at September 30, 2009 are showing a marginal decrease over December 31, 2008. However, the average advances during the nine months of 2009 grew by 19.7% over corresponding period of 2008. The non-performing loans of have increased to Rs 15,795 million as at September 30, 2009 as against Rs 13,772 million as at December 31, 2008 thus increasing the infection ratio from 6.2% to 7.1%.

BANKING INDUSTRY IN FINANCIAL YEAR 2008

In the last quarter, the banking system successfully weathered a liquidity stress. The stress emerged in usual timeframe, ie deposit withdrawals on the occasion of Eid-ul-Fitr and a number of global, domestic and industry-specific factors further compounded it. Major dampening factors such as global financial turmoil, economic slowdown and contractionary monetary policy were compounded by an unusual liquidity stress during October-November 2008.

The current account deficit was quite high and the real exchange rate had significantly appreciated to unsustainable levels, which ultimately put pressure on rupee/dollar exchange rate and led to capital outflows. On top of it, breakdown of capital market in Pakistan and the series of news on the financial meltdown in the advanced markets raised general public doubts about the financial strength of some Pakistani banks.

By this time, due to relatively higher growth in advances, the liquidity profiles of the banks had already been burdened. In this backdrop, the usual post Eid liquidity pressure in interbank market led to rumour-mongering about the banks. The impact was severe in some banks especially the small banks with the constrained liquidity profile in terms of ADR.

The reduction in Cash Reserve Requirements (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Requirements (SLR) requirements in early weeks of October 2008 to manage the liquidity stress resulted in a significant decline in cash and treasury bank balances by the end of Dec-08 quarter thus releasing funds for financing the growth of advances. However, strong capacity developed by the banks and regulators over the years and the offsetting measures taken by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) enabled the system to avert this transitory stress from converting into a financial crisis.

INVESTMENTS

The investments, especially the government papers, which declined in both absolute rupee terms as well as a proportion of total assets during the first nine months of CY08, registered a slight increase during the last quarter. Actually, the heightened credit risk on account of deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals and already constrained liquidity profile induced the banks to shift their preference towards risk-free Market Treasury Bills (MTBs).

The banking system is marked with a high concentration as a small number of banks hold a major share of the system's total assets and deposits. This concentration has been following an overall-declining trend as the medium sized banks gradually gained market share. However, due to unusual liquidity stress that affected mainly the small and medium sized banks, the market share of five large banks inched up to 52.4 percent (51.3 percent in Sep-08).

DEPOSITS

The deposit component, which used to witness a strong growth in last quarter, registered a slow growth of Rs 153 billion (3.8 percent) this year. Incidentally, foreign remittances, a key factor behind the recent year's strong growth in deposits, maintained the momentum and grew by 17 percent over the CY08.

The industry has been witnessing a gradual shift in deposits from savings to term deposits for quite some time. This trend emerged largely in response to SBP's policy incentives to encourage the mobilization of longer-terms deposit so as to reduce the maturity mismatches. Consequently, fixed deposits gained a significant share of savings deposits since 2004. However, SBP's policy drive to increase the CRR and SLR in the last week of Jun 08 and exemption of long-term deposits also from SLR requirements during the last quarter seem to have considerably invigorated this trend (Other factors like general rise in interest rates and innovative deposits scheme have also augmented depositors preference for terms deposits).

ADVANCES

During the quarter under review, advances witnessed a significant slowdown in sharp contrast to industry's established patterns for the last quarter. The worsening business and economic environment somewhat increased the credit risk, which compelled the banks to adopt cautious lending strategy, particularly in consumer sector where the advances have been decreasing since the start of CY08. Some new loans have been issued, of which, a significant portion was disbursed to public sector enterprises (PSEs).

CY08 however observed a deviation in the growth pattern of advances. Slackness in the demand for bank credit during CY07 coupled with slowdown in economic activities and tightening of monetary regime, forced the banks to reposition their lending strategy and asset profile. The asset mix of the banking system gradually shifted from lending to investments during the first three quarters of CY07.

PROFITABILITY

Currently, the cumulative profit of 22 listed commercial banks has declined by 21% to Rs 50.3 billion in 2008 as compared to Rs 63.6 Billion earned in the same period in 2007, mainly due to higher provisions for non-performing loans (NPLs) and impairment loss. The full year profits of CY08 were however lower than profits for the last couple of years but still it remained profitable. The overall profitability was neutralizing due to more than proportionate increase in operating expenses and provisioning for loan losses.

In absolute terms, expenses increased by 33.4 percent to Rs 235.8 billion in CY08, which affected the overall profitability of the system. In addition to higher provisions, enhanced branch network with increased human resource base has soared the expense of the system during the last quarter under review. Moreover, stock market crash in the second half of 2008 resulted in bank recognizing impairment loss of Rs 12 Billion as against only Rs 287 million recognized in 2007.

High spreads of 7.29% in 2008 and strong advances growth of 19% supported the net interest income, while non-interest income increased by 11% on the back of surge in exchange gain as rupee remained volatile against the dollar. The annual audited results of the top five banks for the year 2008 show that their profitability on average has remained at the previous year's level. The assets distribution on the basis of ROA shows that 16 banks, holding 67.9 percent market share, have ROA of one percent and below.

The banking sector in Pakistan has remained somewhat insulated from the global financial turmoil and has maintained its profitability albeit the slower growth. The prevailing global economic downturn nevertheless has the potential to impair corporate and business profitability that may ultimately heighten the credit risk and may affect the earnings of the banking sector in the quarters ahead.

NPLs

This rise in NPLs observed across all the banking groups except specialized banks, where NPLs have actually decreased. NPLs have been on the rise mainly due to poor economic performance of the economy and the FSV benefit therefore resulting in worsening of asset quality ratios. Total provisions for NPLs surged to Rs 53 billion in 2008 as against Rs 42 billion in 2007, an astounding growth of 27% largely due to slowdown in economic growth.

The composition of segment wise NPLs of the banking system shows that infection ratio of all the segments except agriculture have increased. The infection ratio of consumer finance portfolio increased in CY08 (2.3 percent over the year). Rising inflation and contained disposable incomes coupled with increasing lending rate have reduced consumers' appetite for credit as well as their repayment capacity, resulting in increasing defaults rate in the consumer finance.

Interestingly, in the wake of economic slowdown, banks seem to facilitate the businesses through rescheduling/restructuring of loans, the textile sector being the major beneficiary. Latest banking industry numbers show an effort to keep balance sheets clear of NPLs by recognizing and providing for NPLs on criteria that are more stringent. This approach might look costly in the meantime but in the long run it'll definitely benefit banks by providing a cushion to withstand losses.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (DECEMBER 2003-DECEMBER 2008)

The bank realized an income (profit after tax) of Rs 4.156 billion which inched up by 2% over last year. This trend is common in whole industry. Most of the banks in the industry were not able to earn high profits like previous years, as this year was too harsh economically. The interest income earned this year was 44% high this year, but to match this interest expense rose by 64%. The overall effect was 26% increase in Net interest income. The interest expenses were high due to a minimum 5% deposit rate by SBP of Pakistan. This was done to ensure that depositors get the minimum rate as banks have been exploiting the consumers. Now this year National Savings Schemes offered better rates so it provided competition.

The non-interest income grew by 6% this year. This was mainly due to dividend income, fee and commission, and income from dealing in foreign currencies. The Non-interest income was matched by a 40% increase in Non-interest income. These expenses were contributed by administrative expenses. Admin expenses were high, as the inflation was high this year, which resulted in higher wages. This inflation adjustment added manifold to the costs. Overall the profit before tax was high by 3%.

The deposits in this year grew by 13%. These mainly included the fixed customer accounts. And significant decreases in current account (remunerative accounts). The deposits growth was no in line with industry. Overall the industry faced stunted growth of deposits. The advances grew by 26% more than any Bank in industry. The advances growth was dominated by Short term loans as the industry is risky this year with low economic activity. The earnings profile of the bank shows marked improvement over the period under consideration.

Over last few years there has been hardly any change in the earnings ratios as most the elements increased promotionally. These have been mainly achieved through considerable improvements in equity and profits of the bank. The bank's interest and non-interest income continued to grow. The bank's performing advances were higher this time. Though the yield on the earning assets grew, this was offset by a higher cost of funding that increased by about 54%. In spite of that and the decline in banking sector spread, the bank's profitability picture remained positive, indicating that the bank has prudent policies in place for handling its deposits, advances and investments.

Of the non-interest income, the highest increase came from fee, commission and brokerage income as well income from the purchase and sale of securities. The bank is predicted to continue its growth momentum in the future. Its earnings per share for the year ended 2007 are predicted to be somewhere around Rs 13-14. Asset quality has greatly improved over the years, manifesting the fact that the bank maintains its credit risk tactfully and has well diversified credit portfolio that reduces large exposures tremendously. The bank's asset quality ratios have shown a remarkable downward trend, which translates into enhanced asset quality.

The bank registered a marginal increase of 2.6% over the last year. Nevertheless, the bank has been able to contain the growth of its NPLs. This reflects a sound credit policy that has resulted in higher performing advances. Consequently, the bank also lowered its provisions for the NPLs, enabling greater amount of funds available for earning purposes. It can also be said that in response to higher costs of obtaining funds, the bank has utilized its advances very efficiently. This year NPLs growth has been 6%, on a comparative basis it's better than industry. The throughout industry the average growth of NPLs has been close to 30 %. So in this respect ABL performed well.

Debt management of the company has improved considerably over the years especially from their precarious situation experienced in 2003. This improvement has been complemented by an impressive asset management approach. The debt ratios of the bank have declined, indicating increasing equity portion of the bank's assets. Generally, this has been the trend in the entire banking industry perhaps due to higher interest rates resulting in higher cost of borrowings and the MCR requirements as proposed by the State Bank.

Continuous expansion in Pakistan's economy, growth in per capita income, and rising interest rates for time deposits were the main reasons for the continued increase in the deposits in the 9 months. As is the entire banking industry experiencing, the composition of the deposits is shifting from fixed deposits to savings deposits. This is poised to generate a higher return. All the liquidity ratios of the bank have been maintained at favorable levels. Hence, the bank is positioned to be in a comfortable position to guard against any credit risks, any run on deposits or any significant increase in its NPLs.

Other than customer's deposits, the bank's funding source is the interbank money market. Change in the government monetary policy and market expectations of interest rate are all the important factors that can adversely affect Allied's key funding source. The earning assets of the bank have been growing all throughout. Higher deposits are being streamed into greater advances, investments and lendings, all generating a higher return. The cost of funds is raising parallel to the yield, however, at a much lower level. This liquidity consistency may be attributed to the excess liquidity that prevailed in the industry due to high reserve growth of the banking sector.

While expanding the advances portfolio, efficient portfolio diversification has been a key consideration of Allied, always. This diversification has taken into account the volatility of various sectors by placing concentration limits on lending to these sectors, thereby ensuring a diversified advances portfolio. The bank has the greatest investments in government securities, followed by in listed companies and then mutual funds. The government securities (mainly PIBs and T-bills) are considered liquid and availing less risk. The solvency ratios of the bank have persistently shown an upward trend throughout 2003-2006.

This indicates bright prospects of long-term sustainability of the bank. The solvency ratios of the bank for the last there years have been maintained in the vicinity of each other. The increasing equity portion of the bank explains this. This may be regarded as a move against the rise in deposits rates and a decrease in the banking spread of the banking sector. This healthy trend in solvency may be predicted to continue in the future. The market value of the bank continues to remain high. The bank was listed on the stock exchange only in 2005. Hence, 2003 and 2004 show no values for the market value ratios.

The bank has been a consistent distributor of dividends. The increased profitability of the banking sector (an increase of around 100%) has made this sector one of the most lucrative ones to invest. This increasing marketability profile is reflective of Allied's high yields on earning assets and favorable liquidity and solvency positions. We may expect such trend to continue into the future.

The bank has maintained its reputation as one of the consistent payers of dividends. The high share price of the bank is accountable for this trend. The profits are likely to increase for the year-end 2007, resulting in greater EPS for the bank. The beta is positively related to the market, as it is apparent from the graph with the red line. The market was closed for most of the period in the last quarter so there isn't any significant change seen in prices.

Offline sadlik

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2010, 07:30:44 PM »
buy call!!!!!!!

Offline Mr.TOOL

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2010, 07:49:13 PM »
TRUST IN GOD AND DO THE RIGHT.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2010, 10:33:44 AM »
bm 17th feb
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Offline sumbul

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2010, 10:15:53 AM »
bm 17th feb

Farzooq Bhai should I buy ABL at this level  :skeptic:

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2010, 10:19:28 AM »
bm 17th feb

Farzooq Bhai should I buy ABL at this level  :skeptic:

making new highs so buy with stop
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Offline sumbul

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2010, 10:40:17 AM »
Approaching is the breakout level of 66.50. A sustained move above gives a target of PKR68.90 - 72.00.  :biggthumpup:

Offline sumbul

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2010, 11:26:23 AM »
Approaching is the breakout level of 66.50. A sustained move above gives a target of PKR68.90 - 72.00.  :biggthumpup:

Bought at 65.95 till 17 Feb. Wish me luck guys  :thanks:

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #28 on: February 15, 2010, 11:16:50 AM »
ABL Result Preview - Positive Earnings Suprise in CY09E

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to deliver an upside earnings surprise driven by higher NIMs and lower credit costs when it reports its CY09 results on Feb 17'10. During CY09, we expect ABL to post 73% growth in earnings with a Profit After Tax (PAT) of PKR 7,074mn (EPS: PKR 9.95) against PAT of PKR 4,095mn (EPS: PKR 5.76) last year. Moreover, we expect the company to announce a final cash dividend of PKR 2 per share taking the full year payout to PKR 4 per share.

Valuation

The scrip is trading at 2009E PE and PB multiples of 6.6x and 1.6x respectively. We will be adjusting our estimates after the release of CY09 results incorporating trends in balance sheet growth and net interest spreads.

IGI Research
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Offline sumbul

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2010, 09:50:02 AM »
Approaching is the breakout level of 66.50. A sustained move above gives a target of PKR68.90 - 72.00.  :biggthumpup:

Bought at 65.95 till 17 Feb. Wish me luck guys  :thanks:

LAAAAAAAOOOOOO MAAAAALLLLL  :shoaby:  :banana:

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2010, 11:54:57 AM »
Banks: ABL - CY09 Result Preview

   ABL is scheduled to announce its CY09 result on Wednesday, 17th Feb 2010; we expect full year unconsolidated PAT to come in at PKR6.9bn (EPS: PKR9.7) as against CY08 PAT of PKR4.2bn (EPS: PKR5.85), growth of 66%YoY. We also expect DPS of PKR1.5 to be announced for 4Q, taking full year dividend to PKR3.5

   For 4QCY09 we project unconsolidated PAT to clock in at PKR1.9bn (EPS: PKR2.65). On a YoY basis, this is over 4x increase in earnings while over 3QCY09 it reflects 3.6% decline

   We are currently in the process of finalizing our fair value for the stock but keeping in view the bank’s strong performance during the year and expected profitability growth in its upcoming full year results, we feel that investors should take exposure in the stock as strong fundamentals warrant a BUY stance
 
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #31 on: February 16, 2010, 12:40:41 PM »
ABL expected to post 2009 EPS of Rs9.2 js
We expect ABL to post earnings of Rs6.5bn (EPS Rs9.2) as
against earnings of Rs4.2 (EPS Rs5.8), a significant rise of
57%YoY. In 4Q alone, we expect the bank to post earnings of
Rs1.5bn (EPS Rs2.1). We also anticipate the bank will
announce a dividend of Rs1.5/share, taking the cumulative
dividend to Rs3.5/share for the year. We do not rule out the
possibility of a bonus issue with the announcement.
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Offline sumbul

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #32 on: February 16, 2010, 03:21:15 PM »
Buy on close above PKR67.60 targeting PKR69.00 - 70.00.  :shoaby:

Offline ihashishin

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2010, 01:37:08 PM »
...results not out yet but the share just tanked...

insider trading? :what4: >:( >:(
DISCLAIMER: Caveat emptor.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2010, 01:38:47 PM »
eps 10.02 dps 2 bonus 10%
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Offline sumbul

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2010, 01:46:20 PM »
eps 10.02 dps 2 bonus 10%

I think it is a good result. Above expectation. Bonus was not expected. Rate is down b/c buy on rumor sell on news priciple  >:(

Offline taus

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #36 on: February 17, 2010, 01:54:18 PM »
current rate per buy kerna chahiye??

Offline ihashishin

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #37 on: February 17, 2010, 02:04:40 PM »
i think so upside should be till atleast 75
DISCLAIMER: Caveat emptor.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2010, 02:38:32 PM »
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31/12/2009
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,571.622
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,149.310
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. EPS = 10.06
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31/12/2009
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. DIVIDEND = 20%(F)
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. BONUS ISSUE = 10%
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,516.120
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,122.167
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. EPS = 10.02
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 26/03/2010
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. BOOK CLOSURE FROM 20/03/2010
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. BOOK CLOSURE TO 26/03/2010
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