Author Topic: APL -- Attock Petroleum  (Read 189518 times)

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #879 on: March 08, 2019, 12:36:59 PM »
Attock Petroleum Limited: Continued infrastructure improvement to drive earnings growth

We revise down our earnings estimates for Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) by 24/8% for FY19/20E to PKR40.76/51.06/sh as we (i) incorporate actual earnings for 1HFY19, and (ii) slightly tweak our volumetric sales assumptions.
APL’s 2Q earnings of PKR5.58/sh were marred by inventory and exchange losses (PKR250/315mn respectively) given company’s higher reliance on imported product (~30%). This masked the 53% YoY improvement in topline supported by better than industry volumetric growth and sales mix.
APL offers strong sequential earnings growth supported by (i) proven ability to increase market share with better-than industry sales, (ii) continued retail expansion and investment in infrastructure, (iii) group synergies, and (iv) strong balance sheet with PKR67/sh in cash.
We reiterate our Buy call on the scrip with a revised blended (DCF and multiple?based) TP of PKR536/sh, offering 28% upside from current levels.
Key risks to our thesis include: (i) decline in oil prices and downside in deregulated product margins, (ii) loss of market share amid rising competition, (iii) delay in storage expansion, and (iv) lower benefits from group synergies.
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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #879 on: March 08, 2019, 12:36:59 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #880 on: April 10, 2019, 01:41:10 PM »
APL: 3QFY19 Earnings to Jump by 113% QoQ

Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) is scheduled to announce its 9MFY19 financial result on 11th Apr’19. The company is expected to record a PAT of PKR 3,287mn (EPS: PKR 33.03), down by 23% YoY. Despite overall volumetric decline of 6% YoY (volumes of FO and HSD plunged by 30% and 6% YoY whereas MS witnessed growth of 15% YoY), topline is expected to grow by 39% YoY on the back of massive increase in product prices. Gross margins to settle at 3.67%, down by 200bps compared to 5.67% on account of heavy inventory losses realized in the period under review. On a sequential basis, topline of the company is poised to register a decline of 9% QoQ to PKR 52.65bn amid decline in volume of High Speed Diesel by 18% QoQ to 0.17mn tons vis-à-vis 0.21mn tons. Gross margins are expected to settle at 4.10% in 3QFY19 compared to 5.49% in SPLY amid slowdown in sale of high margin product (FO sales decline by 18% YoY). In the period under review, we expect company to record inventory gains of PKR 50mn.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #881 on: April 12, 2019, 02:25:34 PM »
APL: Earnings slipped 49% QoQ during 3QFY19

Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) announced its 3QFY19 earnings wherein the company posted EPS of PKR2.86, down 49/80% QoQ/YoY. Cumulatively, earnings for 9MFY19 clocked in at PKR23.99/sh, down 44% YoY.
The earnings print comes in below street consensus (BMA’s estimate: PKR8.2/sh), where major surprise came in the form of higher than expected inventory losses, higher quantum of discounts, and exchange losses booked during the quarter.
Topline of the company registered a drop of 15% QoQ, mainly attributable to drop in FO (due to shift in power generation mix) and Bitumen sales (given lack of progress on public infrastructure projects in addition to rising competition).
Lower demand amid increasing competition led to higher discounts on deregulated products to maintain market share. This, along with ~PKR300mn inventory losses (mainly on MS- 50% imported), led to a 39% QoQ drop in gross profit of the company (gross margin for the quarter settled at 1.8%).
Moreover, higher quantum of imports resulted in exchange losses of ~PKR170mn during 3Q.  Resultantly, operating expenses of the company remained elevated (albeit 17% lower on sequential basis).
Financial charges increased by 6% QoQ during 3Q owing to upward trend in interest rates.
The weak earnings trend points towards downside risk to our full year estimate of PKR40.7/sh. We have a Buy call on APL with a blended TP of PKR536, offering 34% upside from current levels.
Key risks to our thesis include: (i) decline in oil prices and downside in deregulated product margins, (ii) extended discounts amid rising competition, (iii) delay in storage expansion, and (iv) lower benefits from group synergies.
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Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #882 on: July 26, 2019, 02:01:07 PM »

APL : FY19 Result Previews

Attock Petroleum Limited (APL)’s board meeting is scheduled on Jul 29th ’19 to announce results for FY19 where we expect the company to post PAT of PkR3.9bn (EPS: PkR39.7), down 30.2% as a combination of volatility in oil prices and exchange rate are expected to result in inventory losses of PkR641mn for FY19 while exchange losses are expected to worsen the injury. Increase in topline of 24.5%YoY is purely on the back of increase in prices as volumes for FY19 declined by 9%YoY mainly led by FO which decreased by 30%YoY on the back of reduction in FO-based power generation while retail fuels also felt the burden of economic slowdown and remained flat for FY19. For 4QFY19, PAT is expected to clock in at PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR15.7), up 4.5x/12% QoQ/YoY mainly on the back of expected inventory gains of PkR1.3bn while volumes posted a sequential increase of 2% however, on YoY basis, declined by 21% with FO again being the major culprit. Along with the result, we also expect a final dividend of PkR13/sh which is in addition to interim dividend of PkR10/sh.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #883 on: October 11, 2019, 12:38:20 PM »
APL: 1QFY20 Earnings to plunge by 26% YoY

Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY20 financial result on October 15th, 2019. The company is expected to record a PAT of PKR 1,151mn (EPS: PKR 11.57) in 1QFY20, down by 26% YoY and 27% QoQ. Despite decline in volumes by 11% YoY (volumes of Mogas, HSD and FO sales witnessed a decline of 7%, 14% and 9% YoY), topline is expected to remain stagnant on the back of increasing product prices. Gross margins are expected to settle at 3.93% during 1QFY20 compared to 4.43% in SPLY amid inventory loss of PKR 62mn expected in the period under review compared to inventory gain in preceding period last year. On a sequential basis, topline is expected to register decline of 3% QoQ on account of decline in sales volume of HSD and MS by 8.4% and 2.1% QoQ, respectively. Finance income is expected to increase by 21% QoQ due to higher mark up on delayed payments and rise in income from bank deposits.

 
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Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #884 on: October 14, 2019, 11:12:02 AM »
AKD
Results Previews APL

APL's EPS expected at PkR8.2 for 1QFY20: We expect Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) to post PAT of PkR816mn (EPS: PkR8.2) for 1QFY20, down 48/47% QoQ/YoY as volumes went down by 1/12% QoQ/YoY after overall economic slowdown imparted its effect on the company. Among the major fuels, HSD suffered the most with a 11/16% QoQ/YoY decline as influx of grey product exacerbated the effect of the slowing economy while company's market share for 1QFY20 decreased to 9.8% vs. 10.3/9.9% in 1QFY19/4QFY19. Another major reason for the decline will be expected inventory losses of PkR384mn for the quarter against estimated inventory gain of PkR1.1bn in 4QFY19. PkR remained volatile and closed the quarter with an average of PkR156.3 for Sep'19 vs. PkR156.4 in Jun'19 which can result in minor exchange gains for the company (estimated at PkR50mn) as 1.8% depreciation in Jul'19 is expected to eroded major part of gains made during subsequent two months of the quarter (PkR appreciated ~1.8% cumulatively in Aug'19 and Sep'19). Also, we expect turnover tax to come into play for the quarter, taking the effective tax to 34% in 1QFY20 against 33/27% in 4QFY19/1QFY19. 
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Offline aatradekhi

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #885 on: October 16, 2019, 11:26:45 AM »
Financial Announcements
Attock Petroleum Ltd. 1st Quarter Results Sep 2019
EPS 1Q = Rs 12.31
Qty Growth = (21%)
Last 1Q EPS = Rs 15.55

Offline MS

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #886 on: October 16, 2019, 12:54:43 PM »
it is above market expectation

Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: APL -- Attock Petroleum
« Reply #887 on: January 16, 2020, 01:44:34 PM »

AKD Daily

APL : 2QFY20 Result Previews

APL to post an EPS of PkR23.5 for 1HFY20: Attock Petroleum Ltd. (APL) is expected is announce results on 21st Jan'20 for 1HFY20 where we expect the company to post PAT of PkR2.3bn (EPS: PkR23.5), up 11.4%YoY, despite a decline in volumes of 7.5%YoY, courtesy inventory gains. Topline of the company is expected to stand at PkR132.8bn, increasing by a meagre 1.1%YoY after increasing prices compensated for disappointing volumes. Market share of APL has suffered (10.5% in 1HFY20 vs. 11.4% in 1HFY19) as influx of grey product (mainly HSD) has started hurting while aggressive strategy of competitors is also playing a part. For 2QFY20, an exuberant growth of 1.0xYoY is expected with PAT standing at PkR1.1bn (EPS: PkR11.2) against PkR556mn (EPS: PkR5.6) in 2QFY19 on the back of inventory gains and higher finance income (short term investments stood at PkR2.1bn as of Sep'19, up 1.4xYoY). Sequentially, a decline of 8.8%QoQ is expected on the back of lower volumes (down 2.5%QoQ) coupled with lower inventory gains. Along with the result, we also expect a payout of PkR12/sh, maintaining the payout ratio of ~50%.  We have a Buy stance on the stock with TP of PkR434/sh, implying 13.0% upside coupled with dividend yield of 7.0%, taking the total return to 20.0%.
 
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