Author Topic: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector  (Read 376599 times)

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Sticky post on: January 05, 2016, 04:06:16 PM »

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1799 on: January 05, 2016, 04:06:16 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1800 on: July 17, 2019, 04:11:33 PM »
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Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1801 on: August 19, 2019, 04:42:51 PM »

AKD Daily

Pakistan Oil & Gas: Oil price is melted icing on top of less cake

•         Jumpy oil prices and resulting volatility in E&P stocks have pressured performance recently, illustrating how external factors scar an otherwise cushioned investment case (dollar hedged profitability, counter-cyclical other income) or reveal deeper blemishes (delays in receivables clearance, improved gas system liquidity yet to filter through to payouts)

•         Amidst a weak operational outlook, we present sensitivities to Arab light price movements, where current price levels reveal attractive multiples, even in a 'lower for longer' oil price environment (US$40/bbl) while implied oil prices (back working from current stock prices) reveal OGDC/PPL  trading at discounts of 51/64% vs. long term average of ~30%

•         FY18 exploration activity presents a weak picture on multiple fronts, where we expect some strength to emerge from an improved security environment and stable drilling costs

•         We have BUY calls on OGDC and PPL with June'20 TPs of PkR190/sh and PkR200/sh, implying upside of 77/85% from last close, while FY20 dividend yields of 11/8% with both players having significant operational idiosyncrasies rounding out investment cases hinging on value
POL, ENGRO,ACPL,AHL,EFERT,ATRL,AICL,PAKRI, HBL,EFERT,BOP,OGDC

Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1802 on: August 21, 2019, 11:35:22 AM »
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Offline SBM

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1803 on: August 27, 2019, 02:35:35 PM »
I hate waking up.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1804 on: September 03, 2019, 03:48:31 PM »
PSO Outperformance Continues

Aug’19: Decade Low Volumes of 1.29mn tons

During the month of Aug’19, petroleum sales remained weak due to Eid holidays of four days along with massive increase in local petroleum product prices on account of PKR depreciation and rise in international oil prices. Meanwhile, HSD witnessed a steep decline of 17% YoY to 0.41mn tons (lowest sales data since 2005), while MS sales witnessed growth of 4% YoY to 0.63mn tons. On the other hand, Furnace oil (FO) sales dropped by 4% YoY to 0.18mn tons. We expect demand of FO to drop further in upcoming months due to lower electricity requirement in winters and higher availability from other sources (Coal and RLNG).

During 8MCY19, total White and Black Oil sales clocked-in at 12.04mn tons, depicting a decline of 15% YoY due to significant decrease in sales volumes of HSD and FO by 16% YoY and 40% YoY, respectively. In retail fuel segment, Motor Gasoline sales clocked in at 5.01mn tons, increased by 3% YoY compared to the preceding year on account of increase in price of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in the recent past which encouraged demand of MoGas. High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales decreased by 16% YoY to 4.49mn tons due to various factors including i) Agriculture sector registering sharp slowdown, ii) Large Scale Manufacturing depicting negative growth in manufacturing sector by 3.5% YoY, iii) Shift in reliance to electricity generation available on national grid as opposed to diesel based captive power generation, and iv) Higher HSD price (up by 17%) compared to same period last year. Meanwhile, Furnace Oil is being replaced by other sources namely Coal, Hydel and RLNG, resulting in a drastic decline of 40% YoY to 2.05mn tons compared to 3.40mn tons in SPLY.

During 8MCY19, PSO is underway to regain its lost market share owing to HASCOL losing its market share from 13.0% in 8MCY18 to 8.2% in 8MCY19 which directly benefited the largest oil marketing company while rise in price of CNG resulted in higher demand of white oil products. As a consequence, market share of PSO and SHELL increased to 44.9% and 8.6% vis-à-vis 43.7% and 7.6% in 8MCY18, respectively. On the other hand, total market share of APL remained flat at 10.2%
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1805 on: September 13, 2019, 12:09:30 PM »
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Offline onlybulls

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1806 on: September 13, 2019, 04:37:05 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Considers-Possibility-Of-25-Oil-Next-Year.amp.html

Farzooq and sbm brothers. If I am not wrong refineries showed here in pak good earnings when oil was low internationally in last years.
Now reports are coming crude might touch 25 dollar next year.
What do you say nrl,atrl,prl. Could again show some good numbers in earning ????
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 01:27:43 PM by onlybulls »

Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1807 on: September 13, 2019, 04:42:11 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Considers-Possibility-Of-25-Oil-Next-Year.amp.html

Farzooq and sbm brothers. If I am not wrong refineries seen here in pak good earnings when oil was low internationally in last years.
Now reports are coming crude might touch 25 dollar next year.
What do you say nrl,atrl,prl. Could again show some good numbers in earing again ????
Omeedonn Kay chirag tam tamatay Hain
Omeedonn Kay chirag tam tamatay Hain..
Ham onlybulls Bhai ko dekh kay Muskuratay Hain.. :console:

Offline onlybulls

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1808 on: September 13, 2019, 04:49:55 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Considers-Possibility-Of-25-Oil-Next-Year.amp.html

Farzooq and sbm brothers. If I am not wrong refineries seen here in pak good earnings when oil was low internationally in last years.
Now reports are coming crude might touch 25 dollar next year.
What do you say nrl,atrl,prl. Could again show some good numbers in earing again ????
Omeedonn Kay chirag tam tamatay Hain
Omeedonn Kay chirag tam tamatay Hain..
Ham onlybulls Bhai ko dekh kay Muskuratay Hain.. :console:
If you don't mind please don't quote my single comment.
Let me ask them whom I am asking. Humble request.

Offline HellBorne

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1809 on: September 13, 2019, 05:01:04 PM »
Rant of $25 is by Russian side (their central bank published a report). Such a low-ball forecast does not exist anywhere else (not in Bloomberg, not in Capital IQ -- as of today). Their forecast is in 57~60 circa.

Baqi marzee he.
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** Don't trust me, I am a liar ** I share my views and analysis in personal capacity solely to meet like minded people.

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Offline ajeebkhan

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1810 on: September 13, 2019, 05:07:58 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Considers-Possibility-Of-25-Oil-Next-Year.amp.html

Farzooq and sbm brothers. If I am not wrong refineries seen here in pak good earnings when oil was low internationally in last years.
Now reports are coming crude might touch 25 dollar next year.
What do you say nrl,atrl,prl. Could again show some good numbers in earing again ????
Omeedonn Kay chirag tam tamatay Hain
Omeedonn Kay chirag tam tamatay Hain..
Ham onlybulls Bhai ko dekh kay Muskuratay Hain.. :console:
If you don't mind please don't quote my single comment.
Let me ask them whom I am asking. Humble request.
Sorry sir, it's my mistake ...pardon me..

Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1811 on: September 14, 2019, 12:50:17 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Considers-Possibility-Of-25-Oil-Next-Year.amp.html

Farzooq and sbm brothers. If I am not wrong refineries showed here in pak good earnings when oil was low internationally in last years.
Now reports are coming crude might touch 25 dollar next year.
What do you say nrl,atrl,prl. Could again show some good numbers in earing again ????

yes low oil prices benefit refineries
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Offline onlybulls

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1812 on: September 14, 2019, 01:28:44 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Considers-Possibility-Of-25-Oil-Next-Year.amp.html

Farzooq and sbm brothers. If I am not wrong refineries showed here in pak good earnings when oil was low internationally in last years.
Now reports are coming crude might touch 25 dollar next year.
What do you say nrl,atrl,prl. Could again show some good numbers in earing again ????

yes low oil prices benefit refineries

Thanks alot.

Offline HellBorne

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1813 on: September 14, 2019, 09:14:06 PM »
The world's largest oil plant in Saudi Arabia was attacked by 10 explosive drones
https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-oil-aramco-drone-strike-2019-9

$25 dreams busted.
Disclaimer:
** Don't trust me, I am a liar ** I share my views and analysis in personal capacity solely to meet like minded people.

Who am I?
A small investor, student, professional and curious person with dreams.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1814 on: September 16, 2019, 11:58:38 AM »
E&Ps: Oil prices rise following attack on Aramco

An escalation in geopolitical tensions following an attack on world’s largest oil production company, Saudi Aramco, has disrupted ~5% (5.7mn bpd) of world oil production and 18% of OPEC crude supply. The attack on processing facility in Abqaiq and the oil field in Khurais is expected to remain offline as restoration efforts are being conducted.
The development has sent the oil price galloping as high as 19% DoD while Brent trades at USD66/bbl, up 10% DoD, at the time of writing this report.
Initial estimates have placed partial production restoration expected in a matter of days while entire production rehabilitation could stretch over weeks, according to initial newsflows.
Brent oil prices have averaged at USD 62/bbl during FY20TD compared to USD69/bbl in FY19 where the duration of production outage can continue to influence the prices, we believe. Clarity is expected to emerge from Saudi Aramco’s update expected within 48 hours of the incident.
Our base case oil price assumption for FY20/21 stands at USD 63/62/bbl, unchanged amid current developments and uncertainty surrounding rehabilitation of the affected field and facility.
However, given the current scenario, with every USD 5/bbl increase in oil prices POL remains the most sensitive with 10% annualized increase in earnings from our base case and by 7% for OGDC and PPL.
In terms of macros, a USD5/bbl movement in oil price may lead to an annualized impact of USD0.9?1.1bn on Pakistan’s oil import bill. On the inflationary front, every USD5/bbl hike in oil price increases headline inflation by 27bps (old base).
We maintain an overweight stance on the E&P sector with a Buy rating that currently trades at a forward P/E of 4.3x. OGDC and PPL are our preferred picks.
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Offline adnandada

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1815 on: September 16, 2019, 12:17:47 PM »
You will see oil at 46 usd within next 3 months....

Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1816 on: September 16, 2019, 12:30:51 PM »
You will see oil at 46 usd within next 3 months....

Phata Poster Nikhla Hero :clap1: :clap1:
POL, ENGRO,ACPL,AHL,EFERT,ATRL,AICL,PAKRI, HBL,EFERT,BOP,OGDC

Offline aatradekhi

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1817 on: September 16, 2019, 03:26:49 PM »
Jis location par SO-CALLED drone attack hua hai woh only 7% percent generate karta hai total world ka

Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: E&P, OMC, Refinery & Chemical Sector
« Reply #1818 on: September 16, 2019, 04:14:17 PM »

Energy stocks all around the world are surging following the hike in crude oil prices (around +9% currently). OGDC, PPL on upper circuit.

Latest updates (post-attack on Saudi oil facility):

Reuters has heard that it may take “months” for Saudi Aramco to resume normal output volumes.
S&P Global Platts has predicted that the oil price could test $80 per barrel if the situation deteriorates.
Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, believes rising tensions in the Middle East could push the oil price as high as $100 per barrel.
Crude hasn’t been that high since 2014, and it would take a 50% surge to get back there.
Meanwhile, energy stocks globally are on the upper side, meanwhile banking sectors worry about geo-political tension in region.
POL, ENGRO,ACPL,AHL,EFERT,ATRL,AICL,PAKRI, HBL,EFERT,BOP,OGDC