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Offline Learner7

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USD to PKR
« Reply #-1 on: December 09, 2009, 12:09:33 AM »
Pakistani Rupee vs US dollar
« Last Edit: October 14, 2011, 12:08:37 PM by M&M »

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USD to PKR
« Reply #-1 on: December 09, 2009, 12:09:33 AM »

Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« on: December 09, 2009, 12:14:14 AM »
Rupee slides amid fears of insufficient forex reserves  
 
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
By Saad Hasan

KARACHI: The rupee fell to a year low of Rs84.14 against the US dollar at the close of inter-bank market on Monday as investors started buying the greenback heavily in anticipation of a rise in its demand from next week, dealers told The News.

The Pakistani currency depreciated from Saturday’s closing level of Rs83.69 after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced that commercial banks would be making payments for crude oil imports from December 14.

Earlier, in the morning trading session the exchange rate went up to Rs84.20 for a dollar. The weighted average exchange rate, at which commercial banks deal with their clients, was Rs83.84 and Rs84 for buying and selling respectively, the SBP said.

This was bound to happen. While there is regular demand for dollars, banks will want to hold on to their reserves and the rupee will continue to lose ground,” a dealer said, adding lingering doubts about the timing of next IMF loan tranche has added to volatility.

Pakistan had accepted an $11.3 billion loan package from the IMF. Fourth installment of $1.2bn is expected to be cleared by the end of this month.

The country had to go and seek help from the international lender late last year to avert a balance of payments crisis.

The country sought loan assistance following a steep fall in its foreign currency reserves to $3.2bn in November 2008 from a high of $14.24bn in October 2007.

The dwindling reserves battered the exchange rate as well. Current reserves stand at $13.7bn with commercial banks holding $3.58bn.

Since then authorities have been taking steps under IMF’s lending framework to correct macroeconomic imbalances. Phasing out energy subsidies and transfer of oil import payments from the SBP to commercial banks are part of it.

Banks are already buying foreign exchange from the inter-bank market to meet the requirements for import of petroleum products like diesel since July 15, 2009. Out of $10bn spent on the import of oil in 2008-09, about $5.5bn were used for petroleum products and $4.4bn for crude oil.

The July-Oct period of 2009-10 has seen a substantial drop in oil import bill to $3.4bn from $5.38bn in the same period last year. Depreciation of the local currency can push up inflation as cost of imported commodities rise and increase country’s debt servicing burden, said Khurram Shahzad, head of research at InvestCap.

“It won’t help exports as historical trends suggest that exchange rate has minimal effect on exports,” he said, explaining that most of the exported goods use imported inputs. The country pays $3-3.5bn a year in debt servicing, he said. Trade deficit has shrunk to $3.9bn in Jul-Oct 2009-10 from $6.5bn in the same period of previous year, suggesting a slowdown in economy.

The SBP says impact of exchange rate variations on Pakistan’s total external debt of $52.8bn was just 0.5 per cent in 2008-09. That was because of appreciation of US dollar, which is the base currency for repaying debt, against euro and SDR (IMF’s special drawing rights).

But when dollar had weakened against all currencies in 2007-08, the country had to bear additional debt of $3.1bn. The depreciation of rupee has wiped billions off the books of refineries, petroleum marketing companies and PIA last year.

A PIA spokesman said a depreciation of Re1 causes the flag carrier’s 10-year loan repayment to balloon by Rs1bn.

Fluctuation in exchange rate also scars profits of refineries, which are not allowed forward dollar booking as cover against any depreciation in rupee. Remarkable rise in remittances sent home by expatriates has helped shore up dwindling foreign currency reserves in recent months. 

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2009, 12:44:13 PM »
Rupee stays under pressure
 

 
 
Thursday, December 10, 2009
By our correspondent

KARACHI: The rupee continued its slow decline against the US dollar on Wednesday with the exchange rate closing at Rs84.22 for a dollar against yesterday’s close of Rs84.16.

The Pakistani currency has been depreciating since Monday in the wake of State Bank’s announcement to transfer oil import payments to commercial banks, which has created volatility in the exchange rate in anticipation of a rise in demand for the dollar.

The weighted average exchange rate at which commercial banks deal with their clients was Rs84.11 and Rs84.29 for buying and selling respectively. The average rate on Tuesday was Rs84 for buying and Rs84.27 for selling. Dealers say the rupee will continue to remain under pressure as banks scramble to arrange foreign currency for importers of petroleum products and crude oil.

From December 14, crude oil import payments will be made through commercial banks. Banks have already been buying foreign exchange from the inter-bank market to meet the requirements for import of petroleum products like diesel since July 15, 2009.

Transfer of oil payments from the SBP to commercial banks was part of IMF’s lending framework to correct macroeconomic imbalances. Out of $10 billion spent on the import of oil in 2008-09, about $5.5bn were used for petroleum products and $4.4bn for crude oil

Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2009, 05:23:30 PM »
DECEMBER 11, 2009, 2:53 A.M. ET

Pakistan Rupee Headed Lower  

By DAVID ROMAN

SINGAPORE--A tumble in the Pakistan rupee looks set to continue as the looming end of a central bank program that provides importers with dollars for fuel imports pushed the currency to a record low against the dollar Thursday.

Worries about Pakistan's turbulent political situation, struggling economy and the Taliban insurgency have undercut the rupee all year -- and there are no sign those clouds will clear.

"We expect the rupee exchange rate to continue depreciating at a gradual pace of 0.5% per month in the remaining months of the fiscal year 2010 (ending in June)," said Asad Farid, an economist with AKD Securities.

The dollar touched a record 84.25 rupee Thursday and was at 84.16 Friday rupee, up 6.8% so far this year. Farid predicts the dollar may rise to 87 rupee by the end of June.

The rupee will face pressure due to concern about a shortage of dollars. As part of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan's central bank next week will phase out a program that channels foreign exchange reserves to importers in need of hard currency for fuel imports.

The move will stem a drain on its reserves and ensure the delivery of some $4 billion by the IMF, the final tranche of a US$11.3 billion rescue package arranged a year ago. But the effect in the short term is to reduce the supply of dollars in the market.

Inflation rose to 10.5% in November from 8.9% in October, and is expected to remain above 10% for the current fiscal year, fueled by the removal of official subsidies and higher commodity prices.

This makes Pakistan's exports more expensive to produce. A decline in the rupee is a natural consequence, said Farid.

But not all forces on the rupee are pointed down.

A rise in capital inflows should keep a lid on the dollar's gains. Remittances by Pakistanis living overseas, a key source of dollars, have consistently beaten expectations and rose at a 29% clip overall between July and November.

Nadeem Naqvi, Chief Executive Officer of Karachi-based brokerage International Investment Company, said this is assuaging worries over dollar scarcity. Commercial banks' forex reserves stand at $3.6 billion, and represent a solid complement to central bank reserves, now worth just under $10 billion, he said.

As Pakistan doesn't depend hugely on remittances from Dubai -- most of its overseas workers are in the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi -- the recent economic troubles there don't spell trouble.

What's more, concerns about Pakistan's credit ratings have also eased.

Moody's Investors Service earlier this week reiterated Pakistan's stable outlook, saying its near-term external liquidity has improved.

"What gets lost because of the violence and the political situation is that reforms are going on," said Moody's analyst Aninda Mitra . "Things are going forward."

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2009, 12:47:15 PM »
Rupee at an all time low

As per the commitments under the IMF program, the central
bank has transferred payments for imports of crude oil to the
commercial banks (effective Dec 14, 2009), which has added
pressure on the Rupee. Following inflows from the IMF,
Rupee had stablised in the range of 83-83.50 over Oct-Nov.
However, since the news has come in, Rupee has weakened
by 70bps hitting an all time low of 84.3 yesterday. Rupee has
depreciated by 6.2% this year to date compared to the 22.1%
depreciation witnessed last year.

Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2009, 08:26:16 PM »
Pakistan Rupee Falls to Record Against Dollar on Terror Strikes  

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s rupee fell to a record low against the dollar as investors increased buying of foreign exchange because of a surge in terrorist attacks and accelerating inflation.

Pakistan’s rupee fell 0.1 percent to 84.4725 against the U.S. dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Inflation accelerated for the first time in 10 months in November, reducing the scope for the central bank to continue cutting interest rates.

“Dollars are in high demand today and the fear of further losses is making people convert currency at the year-end, when the terror threat is hurting investment,” Malik Bostan, chairman of the Forex Association of Pakistan, said in Karachi. “Inflation figures for the last month were also not encouraging.”

Consumer prices in South Asia’s second-largest economy rose 10.51 percent from a year earlier after gaining 8.87 percent in October, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site in Dec. 10. That was more than the median 10.2 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists.

Terrorist attacks in Pakistan have surged after the military on Oct. 17 started an offensive against Taliban militants belonging to the Tehrik-e-Taliban group in the country’s northwest tribal region of South Waziristan. The U.S. is pushing Pakistan to expand its operations to include insurgents attacking international troops in neighboring Afghanistan.


Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2009, 01:30:32 AM »
THE RUPEE: dollar falls further  


KARACHI (December 19 2009): Stable trend was seen on the currency market on Friday as supply of dollars was good despite the rising demand to clear the oil payments, dealers said. On the interbank market the rupee posted fresh gains against dollar, gaining 15 paisa for buying and selling at 84.10 and 84.15, they said.

On the final Asian trade euro tumbled to its lowest in nine months against the Swiss franc after striking a trigger at 1.50 francs and hitting stop loss orders below that level, prompting investors to unwind euro-long positions.

OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee held the overnight levels against dollar for buying and selling at 84.40 and 84.50, dealers said. The rupee shed 11 paisa in relation to euro for buying and selling at Rs 120.81 and Rs 121.31, they said.

==============================
Open Buying           Rs 84.40
Open Selling          Rs 84.50
==============================

Interbank Closing Rates: Interbank Closing Rates For Dollar on Friday.

==============================
Buying                Rs 84.10
Selling               Rs 84.15
==============================
=================================================================
Repo Rates (Yield p a)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tenor      Low Bid   High Bid   Low Offer   High Offer    Average
=================================================================
Overnight    12.25      12.40      12.30        12.40       12.34
1-Week       12.05      12.15      12.15        12.25       12.15
2-Week       12.05      12.15      12.10        12.20       12.13
1-Month      12.00      12.10      12.10        12.20       12.10
2-Months     11.90      12.05      12.00        12.15       12.03
3-Months     11.80      12.10      11.90        12.15       11.99
4-Months     11.85      12.10      12.00        12.15       12.03
5-Months     11.90      12.10      12.00        12.15       12.04
6-Months     11.90      12.10      12.00        12.15       12.04
9-Months     11.90      12.10      12.00        12.15       12.04
1-Year       11.90      12.10      12.10        12.20       12.08
=================================================================
Call Rates (Yield p a)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tenor      Low Bid   High Bid   Low Offer   High Offer    Average
=================================================================
Overnight    12.35      12.40      12.40        12.50       12.41
1-Week       12.10      12.30      12.20        12.35       12.24
2-Week       12.15      12.30      12.25        12.35       12.26
1-Month      12.10      12.35      12.25        12.40       12.28
2-Months     12.10      12.35      12.15        12.40       12.25
3-Months     12.10      12.25      12.15        12.30       12.20
4-Months     12.10      12.25      12.15        12.30       12.20
5-Months     12.10      12.30      12.20        12.35       12.24
6-Months     12.15      12.30      12.25        12.35       12.26
9-Months     12.15      12.40      12.35        12.45       12.34
1-Year       12.25      12.45      12.40        12.50       12.40
=================================================================

RUPEE IN LAHORE:
The Pak rupee maintained upward slide and further improved by 10-paisa in relation to the greenback in the kerb market on Friday. According to the currency dealers, the dollar remained under selling pressure that provided support to the local currency. The dollar was ended lower at Rs 84.20 and Rs 84.50 against the overnight closing of Rs 84.30 and Rs 84.60 on buying and selling sides, respectively, the dealers said. However, the rupee showed stability and stayed unchanged at previous level against the pound sterling. The pound was traded at Thursday closing of Rs 136.00 and Rs 137.00 on buying and selling counters, respectively, the dealers said.

RUPEE IN ISLAMABAD AND RAWALPINDI:
The rupee-dollar parity remained unchanged at the open currency markets of Islamabad and Rawalpindi here on Friday. The dollar opened at Rs 84.00 (buying) and Rs 84.10 (selling) against the last rate. It did not observe further change in the last trading hours and closed at Rs 84.00 (buying) and Rs 84.10 (selling).

Pound Sterling opened at Rs 135.60 (buying) and Rs 135.90 (selling) against the overnight value. It did not observe any further change in the second session and closed at Rs 135.60 (buying) and Rs 135.90 (selling).

Toshi

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #6 on: December 25, 2009, 05:22:46 PM »
Pak rupee marches upward against greenback

KARACHI: The America currency shed strength versus the rupee in interbank market, dealers said on Thursday.

The greenback commenced the day’s trading at Rs 84.38 for buying, recorded losses and closed at Rs 84.21 for buying and Rs 84.26 for selling. The rupee gained 17 paisas.

However, the euro recorded strength versus the rupee, as it commenced the day’s trading at Rs 120.20 for buying and after gaining strength closed at Rs 122.32 for buying and Rs 120.52 for selling. Therefore, the rupee lost Rs 1.12.

The pound also gained strength versus the rupee, as it started the day’s trading at Rs 134.58 for buying, gained strength and closed at Rs 134.82 for buying and Rs 135.02 for selling. Thus, the local currency recorded a loss of 24 paisas.

Open market: The dollar gained strength against the rupee, dealers said. The dollar started the day’s trading at Rs 84.20 for buying, gained 15 paisas and closed at 84.35 for buying and Rs 84.95 for selling.

The euro also recorded gains against the rupee as it started the day’s trading at Rs 118.84 for buying, gained strength and closed at Rs 120.50 for buying and Rs 121.80 for selling. The rupee declined Rs 1.66.

The pound also recorded gains versus the rupee, as it started the day’s trading at Rs 132.97 for buying, incurred gains and closed at Rs 134.50 for buying and Rs 135.80 for selling. Thus, the rupee lost Rs 1.53. staff r eport


Toshi

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2009, 01:49:02 PM »
THE RUPEE: dollar recovers
RECORDER REPORT

KARACHI (December 27 2009): Increased rush for dollars' buying pushed the value of the US currency up on the money market on Saturday as the commercial centres were closed for Quai-e-Azam birth anniversary on Friday, dealers said. On the interbank market the rupee was down by five paisa versus the greenback for buying and selling at 84.25 and 84.30, dealers sad. Commenting on the surge in the dollar demand some analysts said that before and ahead of week holidays the US currency buying was boosted.

In the final session of the week the foreign exchange markets were closed due to Christmas holidays. In the meantime, reports appeared that the dollar may retreat slightly from multi-month highs against yen and euro next week as trading volume dries up and markets look to 2010. The fate of the US currency once January arrives, however, is an open question, and investors will look to see if the greenback's impressive December rally turns out to be the start of a trend or simply a seasonal anomaly.

OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee showed no variation against dollar for buying and selling at 84.50 and 84.60, dealers said. The rupee continued its weakness versus euro, losing another 40 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 120.95 and Rs 121.45, they said.

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2010, 05:28:53 PM »
Pakistani Rupee at new record low
 
KARACHI, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The Pakistani rupee was traded at a new record low on Monday on demand for foreign exchange to pay for imports, especially oil, and dealers said they expected the currency to remain under pressure.

The rupee was quoted closing at 84.55/59 to the dollar, compared with Saturday's close of 84.23/33.

"The rupee was traded at 84.56 to the dollar," said a currency dealer in Karachi.
This compared with the previous record low of 84.55 on Dec. 16, 2009.

Demand for dollars to pay for oil has increased since last month when commercial banks have had to provide foreign currency for imports of crude oil under a central bank ruling, as part of Pakistan's commitments under an International Monetary Fund programme.

Pakistan secured an IMF emergency loan package of $7.6 billion in November 2008 to help avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves. The loan was increased to $11.3 billion in July last year.

The State Bank of Pakistan also stopped providing foreign exchange for furnace oil in February 2008, and for diesel and other refined products in August last year.
"The rupee is likely to stay under pressure as international oil prices have been rising," said another currency dealer.

Global oil prices rose past $80 a barrel on Monday for the first time since mid-November on news that Russia has halted oil supplies to Belarus and on cold weather in the United States.
In the money market, short-term money rates ended slightly higher on Monday and dealers said they expected rates to hover around current levels as there were no scheduled inflows or outflows in the coming days.

Overnight call rates ended at 11.50 percent, compared with Saturday's close of 10.50 percent.
Dealers said there were no inflows or outflows on Monday.
The next inflow is scheduled for Jan. 14 of 53 billion rupees and the next outflow is scheduled for Saturday of 120 billion rupees.

Pakistani stocks ended higher led by energy stocks following a rise in international oil prices, but in low turnover as dealers said investors were on the sidelines on security concerns following the militant attacks over the weekend.

The Karachi Stock Exchange's benchmark 100-share index ended 50.93 points, or 0.54 percent, higher at 9,437.85 on thin turnover of 75.58 million shares.
"Investors preferred to stay on the sidelines due to the recent surge in militant activities," said Furqan Punjani, an analyst at Topline Securities Ltd.

A suicide bombing at a volleyball game in the northwest village of Shah Hassankhel killed at least 89 people on Friday, one of the worst attacks in more than two years.
(Reporting by Sahar Ahmed; Editing by Ron Askew)
 
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7691133&action=article

Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2010, 10:19:59 AM »
Import payment pressure pushes rupee down  
 
 
 
Experts say SBP won’t intervene

Tuesday, January 05, 2010
By Saad Hasan

KARACHI: The rupee dropped to a new low of Rs84.65 on Monday, down 0.44 per cent from Saturday’s close of Rs84.25 as importers rushed to buy US dollar to make oil payments, dealers told The News.

The weighted average at which commercial banks bought and sold the dollar was Rs84.33 and Rs84.52 respectively, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said. Average exchange rate on Saturday was Rs84.20 and Rs84.39.

“Normally, there is pressure on the rupee on first Monday of a month because the government settles commodity import payments,” said a dealer at a bank. “But mainly there was increased demand for dollar to make oil payments.”

Pakistani currency has seen fluctuation in the past three weeks. Since December 14, refineries are borrowing from the banking system for importing crude oil.

Dealers say the rupee will continue to remain under pressure as banks scramble to arrange foreign currency for importers of petroleum products and crude oil. Earlier, the central bank was using its foreign exchange reserves for importing crude.

The inter-bank market has already been meeting the requirement for import of petroleum products like diesel since July 15, 2009. Transfer of oil payments from the SBP to commercial banks was part of the International Monetary Fund’s lending framework to correct macroeconomic imbalances.

Out of $10 billion spent on import of oil in 2008-09, about $5.5bn were used for petroleum products and $4.4bn for crude oil. The July-Oct period of 2009-10 saw a substantial drop in total oil import bill to $3.4bn from $5.38bn in the same period last year.

Malik Boston, head of a foreign exchange firm, said the rupee would stabilise once the pressure of import payments eased. “Pakistan has to pay ($600 million) in installment of IMF loan later this month but that won’t affect the exchange rate.”

Foreign debt payments are met by the SBP from its reserves which have risen to $10.29 billion, in part because of IMF loans.

The lending framework bars the central bank from using its foreign exchange reserves to make import payments. This is one reason the SBP is not intervening to support the rupee.

Sayem Ali, an economist at Standard Chartered, said maintaining reserves was the first priority of the central bank since the country had to pay approximately $3.5bn of debt annually. “Even the SBP’s support didn’t help to stop the rupee from sliding last year,” he said, referring to a 6 per cent depreciation of the currency in 2009 when central bank’s reserves were used to make oil payments.

He said avoiding a balance of payments’ crisis, which had forced the government to seek IMF’s help in November 2008 in the first place, was more important. “Concerns over inability to pay international debt can scare off the limited foreign investment.”

Pakistan was expected to receive $2.5bn from the World Bank and ADB, he said, adding the rupee would also stabilise after that.
 

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2010, 12:09:07 AM »
 Pak rupee at new record low

Updated at: 2115 PST, Tuesday, January 05, 2010   
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee was traded at a new record low in inter-bank market on Tuesday as it was quoted closing at 84.73/ to the dollar.

Money market dealers said rupee value is gradually going down on transferring the payment of oil to commercial banks.

Dollar gained Rs0.16 in the inter-bank market to make a new high of 84.73 at closing.

Market dealers said banks released payment worth $100 million for crude oil yesterday while $80 million were paid today in this regard, which resulted in the record low value of rupee.

On the other hand, US dollar selling was quoted at 84.75 in open market while purchasing value remained 84.45, Exchange Companies Association reported. 

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2010, 03:59:30 AM »
 Rupee falls to record 84.57 against dollar


KARACHI: The rupee fell to a record low against the dollar on Monday while it already lost almost Re1 since the private sector was given sole responsibility to pay the entire oil bills.

The dollar was traded at the maximum price of Rs84.57, which is the highest price dollar ever found in the local market, said currency traders adding that the dollar gained up to 20 paisa on Monday.

The currency dealers said the dollar was booked at Rs84.68 for Tuesday, which means the local currency would further lose its weight during the next session.

“The market was busy as buyers suddenly increased their demand and a bank bought half a million dollar apparently for foreign payments, which pushed the dollar price up,” said Atif Ahmed, a currency dealer.

The local currency has been losing fast against the dollar as the demand suddenly increased when the State Bank announced on Dec 5, that private sector would have to pay entire oil import bill.

Just before the SBP’s announcement, the dollar was traded at Rs83.70, which means during a month the local currency lost about 95 paisa.

The State Bank had announced that with effect from Dec 14, all purchases of foreign exchange related to import of crude oil would be made by banks from inter-bank market. The private sector is now solely responsible to import petroleum products.

The petroleum products are the largest single item in the import list of the country and it might range from $8 billion to $10 billion for the whole one year.

Currency dealers said the local market received negative reports as the oil price has increased to $80 per barrel in the international market creating fear among the importers that that the dollar might go appreciating if the oil prices kept going up.

“Despite good foreign exchange reserves of the country, the rupee is losing weight mainly because the importers fear that they might need more dollars to import oil and this is the reason for a rush to pick maximum dollars from the market,” said Atif.

The oil price touched $80 per barrel on Monday, while the prices could further escalate because of rising demand of energy in Europe and US due to record low temperatures during the current winter.

Analysts said that inflation was once again rising on account of government’s several moves to generate revenue through additional taxation on already loaded sectors.

“The government has increased oil prices, natural gas and electricity prices to sustain its falling revenue, which is falling because of poor economic growth,” said Abid Saleem, a brokerage house analyst.

He said the price hike of utilities will increase inflation, which just fell to half of what it was 12 months back.

“Under the rising inflation and poor economy, the currency has no place to stay firm. It will fall more in coming months,” said Abid.

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2010, 12:40:07 PM »
Dollar over 85 in open market  

 Updated at: 1217 PST,  Thursday, January 07, 2010

 KARACHI: The US dollar is seen declining in international market for some days but its value continued to surge in open market with all time high level here.

US dollar has crossed Rs.85 level in open market today Thursday and is seen selling at all time high in inter-bank market at Rs84.92, gaining 15 paisa more.

According to forex market dealers, dollar is in demand in banking sector and was recorded at Rs.84.92 level during trade today.

The rupees value is seen under pressure today following buying of 75 million dollars in banking sector, said dealers.

Meanwhile, the spokesman Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) Naeem Uddin said buying price of dollar has crossed Rs.85 level and being sold at Rs85.05 in open market today.

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2010, 05:22:01 PM »
UPDATE 1-Pakistani rupee falls to new low

Thu Jan 7, 2010 5:00pm

By Sahar Ahmed

KARACHI, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Pakistani rupee fell to a record low on Thursday for the fourth consecutive day because of high demand for dollars to pay for imports, especially oil, and dealers said they expected the currency to remain under pressure.

The rupee PKR= was quoted closing at 84.79/85 to the dollar compared with Wednesday's close of 84.66/76.

"The weakest trade for the rupee was made at 84.88," said a currency dealer in Karachi.

That compared with the previous record low of 84.77 the previous day.

Dealers said they expected the rupee to ease to more than 85 to the dollar in coming days. The rupee fell 6.17 percent last year after a 22.12 percent fall in 2008.

"We expect significant pressure on the rupee during the current month," said Sayem Ali, economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

Demand for dollars to pay for oil has increased since last month when the central bank ordered commercial banks to provide foreign currency for imports of crude oil, as part of Pakistan's commitments under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

Previously, the central bank had provided dollars for crude oil imports.

Pakistan secured an IMF emergency loan package of $7.6 billion in November 2008 to help avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves. The loan was increased to $11.3 billion in July last year.

The State Bank of Pakistan stopped providing foreign exchange for furnace oil imports in February 2008 and for diesel and other refined product imports in August last year.

Dealers said they expected the rupee to remain under pressure as global oil prices creep higher. Oil rose to a 15-month high on Wednesday but slipped below $83 a barrel on Thursday. [ID:nSGE60608R]

In the money market, short-term money rates were flat, ending between 10.50 percent and 11.00 percent, unchanged from Wednesday's close.

Dealers said they expected rates to hover at current levels as there were no scheduled inflows or outflows in coming days.

There was an outflow of 10.70 billion rupees after the State Bank of Pakistan sold treasury bills in 2-day repo contracts.

The next inflow is scheduled for Jan. 9 of 25 billion rupees against an outflow of 120 billion rupees.

Stocks ended higher but off early gains as investors sold shares at higher levels to book profits following a 3 percent rise this week, dealers said.

The Karachi Stock Exchange's benchmark 100-share index .KSE ended 10.11 points, or 0.10 percent, up at 9,737.47 on turnover of 170.94 million shares.

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2010, 10:44:42 AM »
Euro Sukuk Bond: Pakistan has to pay $600 million at maturity on January 26

RIZWAN BHATTI
KARACHI (January 08 2010): Pakistan has to pay $600 million on maturity of five-year Euro Sukuk Bond to foreign buyers on January 26, sources in the banking industry told Business Recorder on Thursday. They said Pakistan entering the international bond market had launched its first-ever Euro Bond in 2004 to dig up foreign exchange and since than the country has auctioned overall $1800 million bonds in the global market.

"The country auctioned $500 million of five-year Euro Bond in 2004, while in 2005 it launched five-year Islamic Bond - Euro Sukuk Bond," sources said. The country sold $500 million Euro Sukuk Bond in January 2005, which is being maturated on January 26, 2010, they added. Overall $5 million bonds were auctioned at a price of $100 per bond in the international market.

"Pakistan has to pay $600 million as a maturity payment of auctioned Sukuk bonds," sources said and added that the overall payment included $500 million of actual value of the bonds and $100 million interest. At the time of auction, the yield on bonds stood at about 6.875 percent, which surged to over 10 percent in December 2009 due to ongoing political crisis and poor law and order situation.

However, the yield on Pakistan's Sukuk Bond has declined by 178 basis points to 8.60 percent in the world market after the IMF's fourth tranche. Sources said the payment of $600 million would put negative impact on the exchange rate and the forex reserves, which recently reached $15 billion.

"The country's forex reserves may again deplete following this payment as the PKR, which is already under pressure for last two weeks, may see further pruning against the dollar," they added. The PKR set a record low for fourth consecutive day on Thursday because of high demand of the dollar for payments against oil import. The rupee fell to a record low against the dollar, closing at 84.79 and 85.00 for buying and selling, respectively.

Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2010, 04:13:34 PM »
External debt to rise by 43pc in five years  

By Khaleeq Kiani

Monday, 11 Jan, 2010


ISLAMABAD Pakistan’s total external debt is likely to grow alarmingly by more than 43 per cent over the next five years, to about $73 billion in 2015-16 from about $50.76 billion early this year.

According a report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the debt will increase by about 13 per cent, or $6.4 billion, to $57.1 billion by the end of the current fiscal year and is estimated to increase by $7 billion, or 12.3 per cent, to $64 billion by the end of the next fiscal year.

IMF’s estimate suggests that the external debt will increase by another $2 billion in 2011-12 and cross $72.6 billion in 2015-16.

The public and publicly guaranteed debts, including IMF loans, are estimated to increase by 45 per cent from $47.26 billion on June 30, 2009, to more than $68.1 billion in 2015-16. The amount will increase to $53.3 billion during the current fiscal year and $59.9 billion by end of next year.

The total medium- and long-term debt which stood at about $41.5 billion at the end of June last year, will increase to $48.2 billion next year and reach $67.6 billion in 2015-16 -- an increase of about 40 per cent.


The Asian Development Bank will have the single largest share in the external debt, which will increase from $9 billion in July last year to about $15.8 billion in 2015, by more than 75 per cent in five years.





The World Bank debt will increase by about 29 per cent from $12 billion to $15.5 billion by 2015.


Bilateral debt is likely to increase by 96 per cent from the current $16 billion to $31.28 billion in 2015-16.

However, the IMF believes that the country’s external loan is sustainable; the debt stock will remain moderate when compared with the size of the economy and external debt servicing will remain manageable.

The analysis is based on the forecast that the external debt stock which stands at 27 per cent of the GDP would peak at 34.3 per cent in 2011-12 and then start subsiding, to reach 31 per cent in 2015-16.

The estimates may change if underlying assumptions for economic growth, interest rate and external trade are not fulfilled.

The economic growth rate has been projected at three per cent this year, four per cent next year and 5.5 per cent in 2015-16.


An increase in debt takes place generally because of large fiscal and current accounts deficits, depreciation in exchange rate and uncontrolled borrowing.


In the medium term, such increases lead to a higher debt-servicing cost and restrict the government’s ability to improve the condition of the people.

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/12-external-debt-to-rise-by-43pc-in-five-years--bi-10

Offline Learner7

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2010, 09:30:40 AM »
Depreciating exchange rate  
 
 
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
By Dr Ashfaque H Khan
 
A country's current-account deficit may deteriorate for a variety of reasons, including an expansionary fiscal policy, deterioration in the terms of trade and higher debt servicing. A deficit in current account can only be sustained if there is a matching inflow of capital to finance it. In the event of a shortfall in capital flows, the country seeks balance of payment support from outside, including the IMF. Exchange-rate depreciation invariably has been an essential part of the IMF programme to facilitate adjustment.

Exchange-rate depreciation has been associated with deceleration in economic growth, increase in unemployment and poverty, undermining of public-sector investment and development strategies, increasing cost of living, worsening income distribution and shifting of the burden of adjustment to low-income groups.

The proponents of devaluation (the IMF and the country's central bank) argue that it improves external competitiveness, increases exports and reduces imports, and thus improves trade and current-account balances. They also argue that devaluation initially worsens but eventually improves balance of payments with a lag (the J-curve effect) which is hard to specify.

With the contraction in world trade as a result of the global economic meltdown over the past two years, and the associated rise in protectionism in industrial countries, the critics have raised questions regarding the efficacy of devaluation as an instrument to improve balance of payments. How come a developing country increases exports by changing relative price through devaluation in recession-hit industrialised markets?

The critics also argue that devaluation increases the cost of imported inputs of export-oriented industries. Hence, the larger its share in total inputs of export-oriented industries, the less the beneficial effect of devaluation on balance of payments. Furthermore, the experience of the 1990s suggests that the benefits of devaluation have always accrued to importers of Pakistani goods. The importers would force the Pakistani exporters to reduce the unit price of goods to the extent of devaluation.

Pakistan witnessed a stable exchange rate for almost eight years in the last decade. The rupee-dollar parity hovered around Rs60 and 62. Exports more than doubled during the period, rising from $8.5 billion in 1999-00 to $19 billion in 2007-08, or over 122 per cent. The exchange rate nosedived in early April 2008, and since then the Pakistani rupee has lost one-third of its value vis-à-vis the dollar. When the present government took charge on March 31, 2008, the exchange rate was Rs62.5 per dollar and today it has plunged to Rs85 per dollar – a loss of Rs22.5 per dollar in less than two years. The IMF has also asked Pakistan to pursue a "flexible" exchange-rate policy under its programme. Pakistan is religiously following the dictate of the IMF and as such allowed the rupee to lose ground with a view to improving external payments position.

Has Pakistan achieved these objectives? Have exports increased and imports reduced? Has the external payment situation improved as a result of devaluation? Exports during 2008-09 declined to $17.8 billion from $19.0 billion the previous year – a decline of 6.7 percent. Exports stood at $9.2 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year, as against $9.5 billion in the same period last year – down 3.0 per cent. Thus, exports continue to decline in the midst of fast-depreciating exchange rate. In other words, we have observed a negative relationship between devaluation and exports – quite contrary to the theory.

In my article on Dec 30, I had said that over 90 per cent improvement in external payments position during the period came from the collapse of commodity and oil prices, as well as a surge in remittances for unexplained reasons. Devaluation has certainly not helped in increasing exports or improving the current account balance.

On the other hand, devaluation has done irreparable damage to the economy. The exchange-rate depreciation has alone added Rs1,125 billion in public debt. In today's exchange rate it amounts to $13 billion. The rise in the public debt would increase interest payment, reduce fiscal space for development spending and put enormous pressure on the budget. A higher budget deficit would lead to even more accumulation of public debt.

Devaluation, by definition, is inflationary. While inflation in many developing countries was close to zero per cent, it remained at a double-digit level for quite sometime in Pakistan – thanks to the depreciation of the exchange rate. Consequently, the State Bank of Pakistan had to maintain a tight monetary policy with adverse effects on investment and growth. Depreciation of the currency is likely to play havoc with sugar prices in a few months' time. There will be a shortage of at least 1.5 million tons of sugar this year, for which the government has a plan to import. Not only will the price of sugar in international market be at its ever highest in 29 years but its landed cost at Karachi would also surge on account of a depreciation of the rupee.

Similarly, the depreciation of the currency will keep POL prices at higher level; a higher furnace-oil price will make electricity costly The SBP is requested to conduct the cost-benefit analysis of the pursuit of a "flexible" exchange-rate policy. For the IMF, the textbook approach may not work all the time. Given the current weak global market and the depressed level of economic activity at home, is this the right time to force the government to pursue a "flexible" exchange-rate policy? Please also conduct the cost-benefit analysis of such a policy for the general public of Pakistan. While doing such an analysis, please also compare the experiences of Indonesia and Malaysia in the events of the 1997 financial crisis. The people of Pakistan wait for the result of your analysis.



The writer is dean and professor at NUST Business School, Islamabad. Email: ahkhan@nims.edu.pk 

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=218144

Offline Farzooq

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2010, 10:43:31 AM »
THE RUPEE: dollar at 85.05

RECORDER REPORT
KARACHI (January 31 2010): High demand for dollars forced the rupee to touch the new low and give up its stability versus the US currency at 85 on the interbank market on Saturday, marketmen said. The rupee lost 25 paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 85.05 and 85.10, they said.

The rupee was under pressure against dollar as on December 5, 2009, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced that banks will clear all oil payments, which basically caused higher demand for dollars and weakness of the rupee, currency viewers said. Importers were also busy in forward buying of dollars in anticipation of increase in oil prices on the globe, they added.

The SBP said late Tuesday that exchange rate volatility during the first half of the 2009/10 fiscal year was 2.7 percent, compared with 10.5 percent in the same period last year, which showed exchange rate stability with improving macroeconomic fundamentals. Some dealers said that dollar inflows in shape of remittances from overseas workers had also helped the rupee retain, to some extent, its value in recent days.

In the meantime it is most likely that as a result of fall in the rupee, the exports may get lift from the bottom side, experts said. In the month of January 2010, the rupee hit the record levels twice in a month at 85 and 86 due to panic buying of dollars, they added. 'So, we can expect further decline in the value of the rupee versus dollar in the coming days', they said.

At the weekend the dollar rose against major currencies after stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced the view the United States was recovering from recession faster than other developed countries. The euro fell below $1.39 to a 6-1/2-month low as investors remained concerned about the fiscal health of some of the smaller Euro zone countries including Greece and Portugal.

Data showed the US economy grew at a 5.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, its quickest pace in more than six years. Separate reports showed business activity in the US Midwest expanded more than expected, while consumer sentiment hit a two-year high.

OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee continued slide against dollar, losing 10 paisa for buying and selling at 86.20 and 86.30, dealers said. The local currency, however, posted fresh gain of Rs 1.20 versus euro for buying and selling at Rs 118.50 and Rs 119.00, they added.

==============================
Buying                Rs 85.05
Selling               Rs 85.10
==============================

Interbank Closing Rates: Interbank Closing Rates For Dollar on Saturday.

==============================
Open Buying           Rs 86.20
Open Selling          Rs 86.30
==============================
=================================================================
Repo Rates (Yield p a)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tenor      Low Bid   High Bid   Low Offer   High Offer    Average
=================================================================
Overnight    11.90      12.40      12.00       12.40        12.18
1-Week       11.65      12.05      11.95       12.10        11.94
2-Week       11.70      11.95      11.95       12.00        11.90
1-Month      11.75      11.95      11.90       12.00        11.90
2-Months     11.75      11.95      11.90       12.00        11.90
3-Months     11.75      11.95      11.95       12.00        11.91
4-Months     11.80      12.00      12.00       12.10        11.98
5-Months     11.80      12.00      12.00       12.10        11.98
6-Months     11.80      12.00      12.00       12.10        11.98
9-Months     11.85      12.00      11.95       12.15        11.99
1-Year       11.90      12.00      12.00       12.10        12.00
=================================================================
Call Rates (Yield p a)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tenor      Low Bid   High Bid   Low Offer   High Offer    Average
=================================================================
Overnight    12.00      12.40      12.20       12.45        12.26
1-Week       12.00      12.15      12.10       12.20        12.11
2-Week       11.85      12.10      11.90       12.15        12.00
1-Month      11.85      12.10      12.00       12.20        12.04
2-Months     11.90      12.15      12.10       12.25        12.10
3-Months     12.00      12.25      12.15       12.30        12.18
4-Months     12.15      12.25      12.20       12.30        12.23
5-Months     12.15      12.30      12.20       12.35        12.25
6-Months     12.15      12.30      12.25       12.35        12.26
9-Months     12.15      12.40      12.35       12.45        12.34
1-Year       12.25      12.45      12.40       12.50        12.40
=================================================================
RUPEE IN LAHORE: The Pak rupee failed to maintain its worth and lost 20-paisa in relation to the greenback in the open currency market on Saturday.

Because of fresh demand, the dollar showed strength and registered handsome gain against the rupee. According to the moneychangers, the dollar was slid up and closed at Rs 86.30 and Rs 86.60, as compared to Friday closing of Rs 86.00 and Rs 86.40 on buying and selling sides, respectively, the dealers said.

However, the rupee maintained upward slide and further improved against the pound sterling. The pound was slipped and ended at Rs 137.50 and Rs 138.50 on buying and selling counters against the overnight closing of Rs 138.00 and Rs 138.60, respectively, the dealers added.

RUPEE IN ISLAMABAD AND RAWALPINDI: The rupee-dollar parity remained unchanged at the open currency markets of Islamabad and Rawalpindi here on Saturday.

The dollar opened at Rs 86.00 (buying) and Rs 86.10 (selling) against the last rate. It did not observe further change in the evening session and closed at Rs 86.00 (buying) and Rs 86.10 (selling).

Pound Sterling opened at Rs 138.80 (buying) and Rs 138.90 (selling) against the last rate. It did not observe further change in the last trading hours and closed at Rs 138.80 (buying) and Rs 138.90 (selling).
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: USD to PKR
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2010, 09:24:54 AM »
Rupee crosses Rs87 to a dollar in open market
 
 
 
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
By our correspondent

KARACHI: The rupee crossed the Rs87 mark against the US dollar in the open market on Monday as people started hoarding the foreign currency in the wake of State Bank’s requirement to show personal ID for purchase or sale of greenback.

The recent round of rupee depreciation had been aggravated by black-marketing of the US dollar, which some businessmen were willing to buy even at a higher price, traders said. “For the first time in the past one and a half year, the difference in the exchange rate of the open market and inter-bank market reached Rs2,” said Malik Bostan, an exchange company owner, referring to the surge in demand of the US dollar by undocumented players.

He said people were reluctant to sell the US currency to exchange companies because they did not want to disclose their identity. “Naturally, this has led to a shortfall and rise in the price of dollar.”

The State Bank had recently made it mandatory for everyone who buys or sells the US dollar from exchange companies to surrender copy of National Identity Card. “Those who want to travel need dollars and those who want to go abroad for medical reasons need dollars. The demand is still there but we don’t have enough to satisfy it.”

Monday’s average exchange rate in the inter-bank market for buying and selling dollar was Rs84.89 and Rs85 respectively, according to the State Bank. Bostan said exchange companies would hold a meeting with central bank officials on Tuesday to settle the issue. “We will propose that at least the ID card disclosure requirement should be dropped for those who are coming to sell the foreign currency.”
 
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