Author Topic: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited  (Read 315015 times)

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Offline GlobalInvestor

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1579 on: May 14, 2018, 09:33:53 PM »
FATIMA see you @ 26-28  :lazy2:

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FATIMA please comedown to 26 for investors ( its an avoidnscrip for day traders please )  :thumbsdown_anim:
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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1579 on: May 14, 2018, 09:33:53 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1580 on: May 15, 2018, 12:09:37 PM »
Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited : Steep discount to peers unwarranted; reinstate with ‘Buy’

We reinstate coverage on Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA) with a Buy rating and DCF-based TP of PKR36.6.

Our Buy rating on the scrip is underpinned by; (i) key beneficiary of improvement in dynamics of overall fertilizer sector, (ii) accrual of benefits through energy efficiency initiatives, (iii) improved margin outlook, (iv) attractive valuations (CY18E P/E 5.8x), and (v) strong D/Y(9% vs. 7% for BMA Fertilizer universe).

Rising DAP prices is a key positive for FATIMA as it would allow the company to increase price of NP (39% contribution to revenue) and thus increase profitability of the product as NP has a lower cost structure as compared to DAP.

FATIMA is currently trading at the lowest 1-yr forward P/E of 5.8x within BMA fertilizer space (54% discount to peers). Furthermore, the scrip has underperformed the listed fertilizer industry by 12% and the wider market by 3% in past 6-mnths.

Key risks to our thesis include; (i) resurfacing of supply glut due to provision of gas/LNG to SNGP network based players, (ii) sharp hike in phosphate rock prices, and (iii) further investment in group entities which may tie up company’s cash flows

Re-instating coverage with Buy: We reinstate coverage on Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA), Pakistan’s 3rd largest fertilizer manufacturer in terms of sales and the only one of two players (the other one being Pak Arab Fertilizers) of CAN and NP, with a Buy rating and DCF based TP of PKR36.6/sh. Our Buy rating on the scrip is underpinned by (i) improved sector dynamics, (ii) ongoing energy efficiency initiatives, (iii) improved margin outlook for NP, (iv) attractive valuations (CY18E P/E of 5.8x vs. 12.6x for BMA fertilizer space), and (v) high dividend yield (9% vs. 7% for BMA Fertilizer universe). After posting below potential financial results for the past two years (courtesy heavy price discounts on urea amid stiff competition and weak industry dynamics), FATIMA has started CY18 on a strong note (32% YoY earnings growth in 1Q18). We eye strong cash flow generation and recovery in earnings in CY18.

Reduction in discounts in nitrogenous fertilizer market would greatly benefit FATIMA: Dynamics of the nitrogenous fertilizer segment have improved dramatically in the past 6-8 months aided by: (i) upturn in farm economics (10-yr high agriculture sector growth of 3.8% in FY18), (ii) closure of plants operating on RLNG, (iii) continued govt. support in the form of cash subsidies/ reduced GST, and (iv) urea exports which reduced urea inventory levels to 376ktons by the end of Mar’18 as compared to 1.5mn tons in Mar’17. This has improved pricing power of domestic industry including FATIMA, shrinking the dealer discounts drastically. We believe, reduction in discounts would have the largest positive impact on FATIMA as it was the most aggressive in this regard in order to reduce inventory (urea sold for as low as ~PKR1,200/bag during 9MCY17). To note, urea ex-factory prices for FATIMA have seen a jump of ~12% in past 6-8months.

Energy efficiency initiatives to keep energy costs under check: FATIMA has carried out multiple energy efficiency initiatives in the past three years. The largest among these was ammonia revamp that was carried out in 4QCY15 which increased FATIMA’s ammonia production capacity by ~10% to 550ktos per annum. Furthermore, during CY16 the company installed waste gas boiler which improved feed fuel ratio, whereas in CY17, FATIMA successfully implemented Advance Process Control project which reduced energy index of ammonia plant to 7.93gigacal/ton. Moreover, during CY17, FATIMA installed a gas compressor at ammonia plant on steam driver instead of fuel gas which resulted in significant fuel savings for the company. We believe, these initiatives of the company will allow for greater production levels and sustainable cost savings for the company going forward.

Buoyant DAP prices should lift NP primary margins: NP prices are closely linked to DAP prices since it is considered a substitute of DAP. Since the beginning of FY18 Int’l DAP prices have risen 25% whereas domestic DAP prices have risen by a cumulative 26% (PKR terms). During the same period, PKR weakened by 10% against the USD. This implies that further increase in domestic DAP prices is likely. Rising int’l DAP prices can be partially attributed to soaring int’l phosphoric acid prices which have risen by 24% since Jul’17. Rising DAP prices is a key positive for FATIMA as it would allow the company to increase price of NP and thus increase profitability of the product as NP has a lower cost structure as compared to DAP (NP has lower phosphoric nutrient content of 20% vs 46% for DAP). Prevailing primary margins per ton of NP stand at USD253/ton as compared to USD207/ton in CY17.

Strong cash-flow generation aiding deleveraging: Being a relatively new fertilizer manufacturer, FATIMA historically had higher debt levels due to the debt taken for setting up the project. However, in the past eight years, FATIMA’s leverage levels have reduced dramatically and its total debt to assets ratio has dropped to just 18% as of 1Q18. This was made possible by the company’s strong cashflow generation (oper. cashflow ~PKR11bn) and limited CAPEX needs. To note, FATIMA’s FCFF/share has averaged PKR6.1/sh in the past five years. Going forward, we believe the company’s debt level is likely to further reduce to 6% by 2021. 

Investment perspective; discount to sector should narrow down: Within BMA fertilizer space, FATIMA is trading at the lowest 1yr forward P/E of 5.8x as compared to industry average of 12.6x and market P/Ex of 8.6x. In the past six months, FATIMA has underperformed the listed fertilizer industry by 12% and the wider market by 3%. Going forward, FATIMA’s share price performance is likely to catch up with its peers, in our view driven by improved margin outlook. We have valued FATIMA using DCF based methodology to arrive at a TP of PKR36.6/sh, which reflects a capital gain of 26.5% from last closing price. In addition to this the scrip has an attractive dividend yield of 9%. Reinstate with Buy!

Key risks: Key risks to our thesis include; (i) resurfacing of supply glut due to provision of gas to SNGP network based manufacturers, (ii) sharp hike in phosphate rock prices, and (iii) further investment in group entities limiting company’s cashflows

bma
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Offline Muhammad Fahad

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1581 on: May 15, 2018, 10:26:03 PM »
what has happened to investment in Midwest fertiliser Co, USA by fatima?
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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1582 on: May 17, 2018, 09:17:24 PM »
what has happened to investment in Midwest fertiliser Co, USA by fatima?
 

still waitin
i dont think they have made any significant investment yet
they will raise dollars from abroad
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Offline chusmankhalid

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1583 on: May 18, 2018, 11:38:12 PM »
Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited : Steep discount to peers unwarranted; reinstate with ‘Buy’

We reinstate coverage on Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA) with a Buy rating and DCF-based TP of PKR36.6.

Our Buy rating on the scrip is underpinned by; (i) key beneficiary of improvement in dynamics of overall fertilizer sector, (ii) accrual of benefits through energy efficiency initiatives, (iii) improved margin outlook, (iv) attractive valuations (CY18E P/E 5.8x), and (v) strong D/Y(9% vs. 7% for BMA Fertilizer universe).

Rising DAP prices is a key positive for FATIMA as it would allow the company to increase price of NP (39% contribution to revenue) and thus increase profitability of the product as NP has a lower cost structure as compared to DAP.

FATIMA is currently trading at the lowest 1-yr forward P/E of 5.8x within BMA fertilizer space (54% discount to peers). Furthermore, the scrip has underperformed the listed fertilizer industry by 12% and the wider market by 3% in past 6-mnths.

Key risks to our thesis include; (i) resurfacing of supply glut due to provision of gas/LNG to SNGP network based players, (ii) sharp hike in phosphate rock prices, and (iii) further investment in group entities which may tie up company’s cash flows

Re-instating coverage with Buy: We reinstate coverage on Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA), Pakistan’s 3rd largest fertilizer manufacturer in terms of sales and the only one of two players (the other one being Pak Arab Fertilizers) of CAN and NP, with a Buy rating and DCF based TP of PKR36.6/sh. Our Buy rating on the scrip is underpinned by (i) improved sector dynamics, (ii) ongoing energy efficiency initiatives, (iii) improved margin outlook for NP, (iv) attractive valuations (CY18E P/E of 5.8x vs. 12.6x for BMA fertilizer space), and (v) high dividend yield (9% vs. 7% for BMA Fertilizer universe). After posting below potential financial results for the past two years (courtesy heavy price discounts on urea amid stiff competition and weak industry dynamics), FATIMA has started CY18 on a strong note (32% YoY earnings growth in 1Q18). We eye strong cash flow generation and recovery in earnings in CY18.

Reduction in discounts in nitrogenous fertilizer market would greatly benefit FATIMA: Dynamics of the nitrogenous fertilizer segment have improved dramatically in the past 6-8 months aided by: (i) upturn in farm economics (10-yr high agriculture sector growth of 3.8% in FY18), (ii) closure of plants operating on RLNG, (iii) continued govt. support in the form of cash subsidies/ reduced GST, and (iv) urea exports which reduced urea inventory levels to 376ktons by the end of Mar’18 as compared to 1.5mn tons in Mar’17. This has improved pricing power of domestic industry including FATIMA, shrinking the dealer discounts drastically. We believe, reduction in discounts would have the largest positive impact on FATIMA as it was the most aggressive in this regard in order to reduce inventory (urea sold for as low as ~PKR1,200/bag during 9MCY17). To note, urea ex-factory prices for FATIMA have seen a jump of ~12% in past 6-8months.

Energy efficiency initiatives to keep energy costs under check: FATIMA has carried out multiple energy efficiency initiatives in the past three years. The largest among these was ammonia revamp that was carried out in 4QCY15 which increased FATIMA’s ammonia production capacity by ~10% to 550ktos per annum. Furthermore, during CY16 the company installed waste gas boiler which improved feed fuel ratio, whereas in CY17, FATIMA successfully implemented Advance Process Control project which reduced energy index of ammonia plant to 7.93gigacal/ton. Moreover, during CY17, FATIMA installed a gas compressor at ammonia plant on steam driver instead of fuel gas which resulted in significant fuel savings for the company. We believe, these initiatives of the company will allow for greater production levels and sustainable cost savings for the company going forward.

Buoyant DAP prices should lift NP primary margins: NP prices are closely linked to DAP prices since it is considered a substitute of DAP. Since the beginning of FY18 Int’l DAP prices have risen 25% whereas domestic DAP prices have risen by a cumulative 26% (PKR terms). During the same period, PKR weakened by 10% against the USD. This implies that further increase in domestic DAP prices is likely. Rising int’l DAP prices can be partially attributed to soaring int’l phosphoric acid prices which have risen by 24% since Jul’17. Rising DAP prices is a key positive for FATIMA as it would allow the company to increase price of NP and thus increase profitability of the product as NP has a lower cost structure as compared to DAP (NP has lower phosphoric nutrient content of 20% vs 46% for DAP). Prevailing primary margins per ton of NP stand at USD253/ton as compared to USD207/ton in CY17.

Strong cash-flow generation aiding deleveraging: Being a relatively new fertilizer manufacturer, FATIMA historically had higher debt levels due to the debt taken for setting up the project. However, in the past eight years, FATIMA’s leverage levels have reduced dramatically and its total debt to assets ratio has dropped to just 18% as of 1Q18. This was made possible by the company’s strong cashflow generation (oper. cashflow ~PKR11bn) and limited CAPEX needs. To note, FATIMA’s FCFF/share has averaged PKR6.1/sh in the past five years. Going forward, we believe the company’s debt level is likely to further reduce to 6% by 2021. 

Investment perspective; discount to sector should narrow down: Within BMA fertilizer space, FATIMA is trading at the lowest 1yr forward P/E of 5.8x as compared to industry average of 12.6x and market P/Ex of 8.6x. In the past six months, FATIMA has underperformed the listed fertilizer industry by 12% and the wider market by 3%. Going forward, FATIMA’s share price performance is likely to catch up with its peers, in our view driven by improved margin outlook. We have valued FATIMA using DCF based methodology to arrive at a TP of PKR36.6/sh, which reflects a capital gain of 26.5% from last closing price. In addition to this the scrip has an attractive dividend yield of 9%. Reinstate with Buy!

Key risks: Key risks to our thesis include; (i) resurfacing of supply glut due to provision of gas to SNGP network based manufacturers, (ii) sharp hike in phosphate rock prices, and (iii) further investment in group entities limiting company’s cashflows

bma

Just for clarification. dividend yield mentioned in the brief is 9% whereas its 14.73% (Rs. 4.25)as indicated on investing.com
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Offline GlobalInvestor

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1584 on: May 19, 2018, 12:20:23 PM »
FATIMA see you @ 26-28  :lazy2:

👆👆👆👆

FATIMA please comedown to 26 for investors ( its an avoidnscrip for day traders please )  :thumbsdown_anim:

26 Dears 26
WE Dare to Share the Fundamentals Based, Technically Supported & Sentiments Driven Value Investment LEADS

Offline chusmankhalid

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1585 on: May 19, 2018, 12:50:36 PM »
28.03 but the volume is as low as 94,500... what does that indicate.. plz guide :skeptic:
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1586 on: July 10, 2018, 03:54:15 PM »
Fatima Fertilizer Limited: FATIMA is expected to post EPS of PKR1.35 during 2QCY18, up by a massive 1.5x YoY. The upturn in earnings is expected to come about on the back of (i) higher urea prices, (ii) suspension of operations of FatimaFert on RLNG, and (iii) 40% drop in finance costs due to continued deleveraging (total debt down to PKR21.7bn in Mar’18 as compared to PKR38.3bn in Jun’17) and reduction in working capital requirements. On a cumulative basis, FATIMA’s earnings are projected to clock in at PKR2.57/sh, up 78% YoY. Furthermore, we believe FATIMA may recommence payout of interim dividend from 2Q18 and expect the company to announce a dividend of PKR1/sh.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1587 on: July 27, 2018, 03:07:04 PM »
Fatima Fertilizers Limited: All the ingredients in place for outperformance

Fatima Fertilizers Limited (FATIMA) is all set to benefit from the emerging bullish trend in prices of both nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers.

While the entire sector would benefit from rising urea prices, FATIMA may be able to benefit more due to its high urea inventory as of Jun’18 (70% of total industry inventory) which it should be able to sell at a higher price during 2HCY18.

We opine that rising DAP prices would benefit FATIMA as the price of NP (which follows price of DAP) has lower cost of production due to lower phosphate content as compared to DAP.

Furthermore, the price of phosphate rock (raw material of NP) has risen by 12% since CY18TD as compared to 34% increase in phos acid. We estimate that every PKR100/bag increase in NP price would raise earnings of FATIMA by 7%.

We reiterate our Buy call on FATIMA and highlight it as one of our top picks in the BMA fertilizer space. The scrip currently trades at a 1yr forward P/E of 6.4x which is a 48% discount to its peers and offers an attractive dividend yield of 8%

Margin improvement on the cards in all nutrient segments: Fatima Fertilizers Limited (FATIMA) is all set to benefit from the emerging bullish trend in prices of both nitrogenous and phosphate based fertilizers. We present our segment wise thesis below;

#1 Nitrogen market: While the entire sector would benefit from rising urea prices, FATIMA may be able to benefit more due to existing closing urea inventory of 117k tons in Jun’18 (70% of total industry inventory) which it will be able to sell at a higher price during 2HCY18. Furthermore, CAN prices are also likely to rise in tandem to any further hike in urea prices (potentially as a result of gas tariff hike), which would improve margins of the company’s nitrogenous fertilizers business. Our back of the envelope calculations suggest that every PKR50/40/bag increase in urea/CAN price would raise earnings of FATIMA by 5% (annualized basis). Furthermore, we highlight that the recent PKR50/bag increase in urea prices witnessed in mid of Jul’18 is not incorporated in our estimates and as such represents an upside risk to our estimates.

#2 Phosphates market: Recent PKR150/bag Increase in DAP prices is likely to be a margin neutral event for both DAP importers and manufacturers due to soaring int’l DAP and phos acid prices. However, FATIMA is likely to outperform peers in this respect due to its diversified product mix and existence of lower price substitutes such as NP. We opine that rising DAP prices would benefit FATIMA as the price of NP moves with DAP prices and has lower cost of production due to lower phosphate content (20%) as compared to DAP (46%). Furthermore, the price of Phosphate rock (raw material of NP) has risen by 12% since CY18TD as compared to 34% increase in phos acid. Our back of envelope calculations reveal that every PKR100/bag increase in NP price would raise earnings of FATIMA by 7% (annualized basis).

Sustained deleveraging and low CAPEX requirements may lead to higher dividends: Barring increase in short-term debt for working capital requirements (which peaked to PKR17.8bn in 2QCY16), FATIMA has aggressively and sustainably paid down its debt since commencement of operations in CY11. This is reflected from lowest ever net debt of PKR19bn (as of Mar’18). Low leverage levels, coupled with minimum CAPEX requirements and expected reduction in inventory levels, FATIMA’s dividend payout capacity may improve going forward. To highlight, FATIMA’s dividend payout ratio averaged 68% between CY11-CY14 which fell to an average of just 41% in past three years. While we maintain our DPS estimate of PKR2.75/sh in CY18, the improved industry dynamics along with low reinvestment requirements may encourage management to declare a higher dividend (possibility of half year dividend remains) and thus remains an upside risk to our estimates.

Investment perspective; maintain buy on FATIMA:  We maintain our Buy call on FATIMA and highlight it as one of our top picks in the BMA fertilizer space. At last closing price, the scrip offers a total return of 17% (D/Y: 8%) and is currently trading at a 1yr forward P/E of 6.4x.

Key risks:  (i) Govt. pressure to contain fertilizer prices, (ii) sharp increase in phosphate rock prices, and (iii) further increase in loans and advances to group companies.
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Offline LuqmanRafiq1

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1588 on: July 30, 2018, 04:12:40 PM »
Market going up …. Fatima Fert is going down :(

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1589 on: August 07, 2018, 05:06:02 PM »
Market going up …. Fatima Fert is going down :(

fertilizers are a good place to be in current macro environment
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Offline rameez1

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1590 on: August 07, 2018, 06:24:53 PM »
Market going up …. Fatima Fert is going down :(

fertilizers are a good place to be in current macro environment
What would be your top pick at the moment, EFERT or FATIMA?

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1591 on: August 14, 2018, 04:12:16 PM »
Market going up …. Fatima Fert is going down :(

fertilizers are a good place to be in current macro environment
What would be your top pick at the moment, EFERT or FATIMA?

efert i guess because it has a better balance sheet and few more years of subsidized gas
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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1592 on: September 12, 2018, 04:32:58 PM »
We Welcome Back FATIMA to 40's in sha Allah  :good :good :good :good :good
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Offline Imran1982

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1593 on: September 12, 2018, 10:16:56 PM »
Seniors plz I want to know about fatima fertilizer sukuk... Sukuk ka kuch faida hay keh nahi ? How I can buy?


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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1595 on: September 16, 2018, 11:47:07 AM »
Sukuk gives a better profit that Kibor. But I think Fatima suku was announced in 2016. I have no idea if it's coming in 2018!!

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1596 on: September 16, 2018, 03:28:31 PM »
We Welcome Back FATIMA to 40's in sha Allah  :good :good :good :good :good


FATIMA is hitting Upper Cap from last 4-5 Sessions ---  :biggthumpup: :biggthumpup: :biggthumpup:
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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1597 on: September 19, 2018, 10:04:37 AM »
We Welcome Back FATIMA to 40's in sha Allah  :good :good :good :good :good


FATIMA is hitting Upper Cap from last 4-5 Sessions ---  :biggthumpup: :biggthumpup: :biggthumpup:

 :good :good :good :good :good
WE Dare to Share the Fundamentals Based, Technically Supported & Sentiments Driven Value Investment LEADS

Offline tariqmeh

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Re: FATIMA -- Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited
« Reply #1598 on: September 19, 2018, 11:07:07 AM »
We Welcome Back FATIMA to 40's in sha Allah  :good :good :good :good :good


FATIMA is hitting Upper Cap from last 4-5 Sessions ---  :biggthumpup: :biggthumpup: :biggthumpup:

 :good :good :good :good :good
Mari has allocated gas for Pak arab fertilzers. Pipeline to be completed in 2 months