Author Topic: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange  (Read 5695011 times)

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34699 on: July 12, 2018, 09:24:14 PM »
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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34699 on: July 12, 2018, 09:24:14 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34700 on: July 12, 2018, 09:32:30 PM »
Pakistan Strategy FY19 - Watch out for three E’s; Economy, Elections, & Earnings (Detailed report)

FY19 is shaping up to be a year of two halves- a troubled first half on account of noisy politics and much-needed fine tuning of macro framework likely under the IMF program, may give way to relatively more stable political and macro backdrop in 2HFY19. The changing macro, political and external environment calls for fine tuning of estimates and investment strategy. As Pakistan finds itself in a tight spot on external account, macro remains a key driver of returns, in our view.

Macro- Growth is still respectable; inflation under control: Following fiscal slippages (FD: 6.5% in FY18E) and record-high CAD (5.5% of GDP) in FY18E, contractionary fiscal and monetary framework appears on cards as concerns on stability take precedence over growth. We expect GDP growth to slowdown to 4.6% in FY19 (from 5.7% previously) amid belt tightening, and further fine tuning of monetary policy. Despite likely policy adjustments, projected economic growth is respectable while inflation remains under control. Higher CAD and pressure on debt repayments (USD7.7bn due in FY19, including USD1bn Eurobond maturity) leave open the possibility of sovereign rating downgrade.

Politics of elections: A closely fought, high-stakes contest ahead: Consensus on a split mandate and PTI-led coalition govt. has become entrenched, a change from our earlier prognosis in Jan’18 of PML (N) sticking to power (see our report title Pakistan at a crossroads). We believe any outcome of Jul’18 elections does not alter the expected future course of macro policy framework, at least over the next six months. Interestingly, current political environment has come close to backdrop seen over 1988-97 where political wrangling had little regard for economy that produced bouts of political instability and volatility in asset returns. The latest decision of accountability court against Sharif family also raises the risk of continued political instability even after elections.

Commodity prices; margin in the limelight: Recent rally in commodity prices, particularly energy, carries -ve implication for broader economy and major sectors. Margins for cyclical industries have started facing strain from combination of higher commodity prices and devaluation.

New estimates rolled out; earnings growth outlook balanced: We roll out revised estimates of covered stocks based on updated macro assumptions. We project corporate earnings growth of 9/12% in CY18/FY19E vs our earlier estimate of 12/8.5%. Risk to earnings outlook is balanced for now as key risks appear to have been played out. Banks, E&Ps, IPPs and Steel are set to deliver growth in FY19E and may provide cushion on downside volatility. Our base/best/worst case scenarios revolve around split/simple majority/non-acceptance of election results and entail 16/26/-7% total return in KSE-100 index (implied P/E of 7.8/8.5x/7x). Current valuation implies 5% discount over regional peers, above historical average of 35%. Historically, KSE-100 has delivered an average +8.5/9% return and -1/+3% in 1/3-mths period post elections and entry into IMF program.

Strategy- Latest price reaction opens up valuation: While the backdrop for equity market is challenging and possibility of negative newsflow dominating the near-term headlines is high, we believe recent index performance (down 15% in 3-mths, ~25% in USD terms) has started reflecting the downside risk. We prefer defensive, high dividend yield and devaluation friendly names. Our liking is skewed towards E&Ps, IPPs, Textile, Fertz. Though volumes and/or margins for cyclical sectors may face tough time ahead, valuation in select cyclical stocks (banks, steel, select cement names) looks compelling and allows risk taking. Based on screening on above mentioned favorite themes, our top ten picks are: PPL, MARI, MCB, UBL, HUBC, EFERT, FATIMA, NCL, DGKC, and ASTL.

bma
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Offline leraningtheropes

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34701 on: July 13, 2018, 02:48:04 PM »
Salaam guys,

I would like to humbly request for your recommendations on best dividend yield stocks to hold for next few years?

Super confused on what to buy at this moment. Should I invest in IPPs? Ferts? Banks? Please help with guidance!!

Offline Aahaf

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34702 on: July 13, 2018, 04:52:33 PM »
Above 40000 closing good sign above 40500 mkt show bullish momentum

Online aharoon

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34703 on: July 13, 2018, 05:10:01 PM »
Aahaf tu bari pohonchi hue cheez hai :tongue:
Tu guide karta raha kar ..
Aksar o baishtar Teri calculations bilkol sahi nikalti hain

Offline Aahaf

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34704 on: July 13, 2018, 05:22:40 PM »
ALLAH pak ka ahsan hai 15 din off kiye thay umreh ke liay ALLAH kharcha nikal wa den ge might be before election shell inil cepb ghnl pe monday se kaam shru karna hai if mkt sustain

Offline Aahaf

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34705 on: July 13, 2018, 05:25:27 PM »
Dcl bhi bura nahi 13.63 lowest level in current mandi

Offline Ali

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34706 on: July 13, 2018, 05:28:24 PM »
Above 40000 closing good sign above 40500 mkt show bullish momentum
Need your input on DGKC? why got hammered every day?

Offline Aahaf

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34707 on: July 13, 2018, 05:49:43 PM »
Donations can't build dams cement will remain dull because weak results expected for next qtr

Offline salmankaramat

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34708 on: July 13, 2018, 05:51:50 PM »

Just for getting the record straight, Salam bhai, time has proved that market has moved up crossing 40,000. I can recall everybody calling for 35,000 - 30,000 and some even called for 22,000.



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 Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34689 on: July 11, 2018, 05:56:56 PM »Quote Add Multi Quote Remove Multi Quote Modify Dil ki awaz nahi, dimagh ki awaz hai, plus when everybody was bearish yesterday, i told that InshaAllah buying will come and the same momentum continued today.

Offline Salammembers

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34709 on: July 13, 2018, 07:27:49 PM »

Just for getting the record straight, Salam bhai, time has proved that market has moved up crossing 40,000. I can recall everybody calling for 35,000 - 30,000 and some even called for 22,000.



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Boss-let’s hope weekend Khair khairiat saay niklaay ga (deal done deal done being whispered ) and mkt will rocket on Monday -junta ka bhala issi maay haay bro
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 Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34689 on: July 11, 2018, 05:56:56 PM »Quote Add Multi Quote Remove Multi Quote Modify Dil ki awaz nahi, dimagh ki awaz hai, plus when everybody was bearish yesterday, i told that InshaAllah buying will come and the same momentum continued today.

Offline salmankaramat

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34710 on: July 14, 2018, 01:06:49 AM »
No deal for Sharif family or Zardari this time and that's the only way to survive for this country. All the plundered wealth must be returned. After today's flop flop show, Nawaz Sharif and PML N is in no position to cause any agitation, rather they have lost if a little bargaining position they had. As I said earlier, good days are ahead InshaAllah.

Offline Salammembers

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34711 on: July 14, 2018, 05:26:35 AM »
No deal for Sharif family or Zardari this time and that's the only way to survive for this country. All the plundered wealth must be returned. After today's flop flop show, Nawaz Sharif and PML N is in no position to cause any agitation, rather they have lost if a little bargaining position they had. As I said earlier, good days are ahead InshaAllah.

https://jang.com.pk/news/520417
Shahbaz declares end of street protest , wants pml N supporters to Now focus on 25th July election 🤔 definitely mkt will b 500 plus on Monday IA :rtfm:
Baqi deal paar further negotiation aab post election hoo gaay , sustained pre election tezi hoi tu b prepared for post election mandee :(

Offline Chessplayer

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34712 on: July 14, 2018, 08:35:27 AM »
Nawaz has no supporters, just people who don’t pay taxes or criminals who need him in power..

Inquilaab zindabaad, psx zindabad, pak army zindabad, Pakistan zindabad
Nawaz Shareef is trying to destroy my country, but God will destroy him

Offline salmankaramat

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34713 on: July 14, 2018, 09:22:21 AM »
Salam Bhai, aik banday ka plan hota hai aur aik Opar walay ka plan hota hai. NS came with a plan to get 5 to 10 dead bodies and collision between Institutions and people but no one got out of their houses and the show flopped miserably, he has lost it all. InshaAllah these elections will bring stability in country. In very testing times when no body was expecting any upward movement in market, I told you InshaAllah market will move up and Allah was gracious enough. InshaAllah with the burial of this corrupt mafia, our country will start becoming better and better.

Offline rashid.Maria

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34714 on: July 14, 2018, 09:33:39 AM »
Salam Bhai, aik banday ka plan hota hai aur aik Opar walay ka plan hota hai. NS came with a plan to get 5 to 10 dead bodies and collision between Institutions and people but no one got out of their houses and the show flopped miserably, he has lost it all. InshaAllah these elections will bring stability in country. In very testing times when no body was expecting any upward movement in market, I told you InshaAllah market will move up and Allah was gracious enough. InshaAllah with the burial of this corrupt mafia, our country will start becoming better and better.


Yai ap nai khod khai dia hai salman bhai aik adara plan kar raha hota magar hota wohi hai Jo Allah ko manzoor hota hai.  Bhai Bangladesh Jab separate hoa aos  waqt bi yahi adara plan karta tha  magar hoa wohi Jo Allah ko manzoor tha

Offline Chessplayer

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34715 on: July 14, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »
Allah ko manzoor is the arrest of Nawaz the bastard
Nawaz Shareef is trying to destroy my country, but God will destroy him

Offline Chessplayer

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34716 on: July 14, 2018, 10:39:08 AM »
With the arrest of Nawaz the market has risen by 400

I shudder to think how many records would be broken if Nawas was hanged on a v tight noose
Nawaz Shareef is trying to destroy my country, but God will destroy him

Offline ali62

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34717 on: July 14, 2018, 12:39:01 PM »
Salam Bhai, aik banday ka plan hota hai aur aik Opar walay ka plan hota hai. NS came with a plan to get 5 to 10 dead bodies and collision between Institutions and people but no one got out of their houses and the show flopped miserably, he has lost it all. InshaAllah these elections will bring stability in country. In very testing times when no body was expecting any upward movement in market, I told you InshaAllah market will move up and Allah was gracious enough. InshaAllah with the burial of this corrupt mafia, our country will start becoming better and better.


Yai ap nai khod khai dia hai salman bhai aik adara plan kar raha hota magar hota wohi hai Jo Allah ko manzoor hota hai.  Bhai Bangladesh Jab separate hoa aos  waqt bi yahi adara plan karta tha  magar hoa wohi Jo Allah ko manzoor tha


Jis din idara yeh samajh lay ga ke uska kam sirf watan ki hifazat karna hay(jis ke liye hum aaj bhi us ko salute karte hain)
koi doosri planning karna naheen, aur ham civilians bhi mulk ke utne hi wafadar hain jitney k ghare civilians us din
to saare masley hi hal hojayain gae.

Sari baat soch ki hay jo british army say wirse main mili hay, k hum aaqa hain aur civilians mahkoom. yeh woh soch hay
jo (mardood) ayub khan ko chand doosrey officers k saath 1948 main QuaideAzam k pass lejati hay yeh samjhane k liye k
umoore mumlikat kis tarah chalane hain jis par quaid shut up call de kar kehte hain k tum sipahi ho tumhara koi kam naheen hukoomat k barey main bolne ka,
yeh wohi soch hay jo 1951 k shuru main chand senior officers Liaqat ali khan k khilaf coup karte hain
un par pro-indian honey ka ilzam laga kar Aur yeh wohi soch hay jo fatima jinnah ko ghaddar aur indian agent kehti
hay.
Politicians achhe, burey, incompitent, chore, corrupt sab kuch hain kune k woh is muashre ka hissa hain, par
zaroory naheen ghaddar bhi hon. Har 5 saal bad elections aur jitni tezi se logon main shaoor aaraha hay. Yey aisi chalnian hain k 2-3 election is azad  media k saath hojain maximum gundey politicians faarigh hojaye gae. Par agar cosmetics use kiye gaye, political engineering ki gaye to phir to 70 sal sab k saamney haine, aagey bhi halaat aise hi rahain gae.

Pehle to eik idara tha aub to bi mendki ko bhi zukam ho raha hay. Doosrone ka kam chhore kar agar aap lakhone ki taudad
main jo cases pending hain un ko anjam tak punhcha dain. Yeh rule bana kar us par apne saamne amal karadain k koi
case 1 saal se zaida Pending naheen rahe ga aur courts se jo had darja corruption hay us ko khatam karadain, to aap ko
yeh qaum saari zindagi(retirement k bad bhi) apna hero maane gi, sunehri haroof main aap ka naam likha jaye ga. Warna to
aik pehle bhi justice party bana kar betha hay koi poochta naheen aub.
Allah hum sab ko neik hidayat de aur hamain apni ghaltiaon se sabaq seekhne ki taufeeq ata farmaye(Aameen)
ATRL,BIFO,FASM,NETSOL,SEARL.

Offline Chessplayer

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Re: PSX -- Pakistan Stock Exchange formerly Karachi Stock Exchange
« Reply #34718 on: July 14, 2018, 02:03:10 PM »
The pak army is saving the country from Nawaz, who is the agent of India and America

Allah Madad
Nawaz Shareef is trying to destroy my country, but God will destroy him