Author Topic: Auto Sector  (Read 186033 times)

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Offline Loto or Photo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #459 on: December 23, 2014, 02:05:34 AM »

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #459 on: December 23, 2014, 02:05:34 AM »

Offline SBM

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #460 on: December 26, 2014, 12:27:07 AM »
I hate waking up.

Offline HAMDANI_Punjtani

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #461 on: December 26, 2014, 07:01:01 AM »
BOP,ENGRO,TGL,KEL,HASCOL,Efoods,Dgkc,ffbl

Offline ksenewb

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #462 on: December 26, 2014, 09:55:23 AM »
Slowly bubble burst
highly overbought sector now

bubble main dobarah hawa bharo

http://www.express.pk/story/312314/

Honda mein game ho saktee hai........quiet resilient.....

downwards jaaney ki game lagti hai..resilient also means that there is strong resistence when a script is trading in a tight trading range with such resistence more chance is to go down than up

Offline salaara579

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #463 on: January 05, 2015, 07:56:25 PM »
whole sector is under pressure from approx a month.... :down: despite goods sales overall :skeptic: any reason???

Offline stockz_123

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #464 on: January 13, 2015, 04:37:29 PM »
AKD Daily

 

Pakistan Autos: Dec’14 Review and 2015 outlook

 

PAMA has released auto numbers for the month of Dec’14 where total auto sales (cars+LCVs) have registered at 11,018 units (-6%MoM/+25% YoY); with car sales clocking in at 9,522 units (-8%MoM/+32% YoY). While seasonal expectations ahead of the New Year registrations led to the sequential decline, new model launches by Honda and Toyota Indus spurred the YoY uptick. As a result, 1HFY15 car sales are up by 11%YoY to stand at 58,727 units. Having gained 202% FYTD, the listed auto sector has outperformed the KSE-100 Index by a massive 189% driven primarily by margin expansion on a weaker JPY. Going forward, we expect volumes to come into play and carry the growth momentum ahead particularly as we see auto financing to pick up in a lower interest rate environment. Our preferred play within the auto space is PSMC (CY15F P/E of 6.5x; TP:PkR427.5/sh).                 

 

Dec’14 sales review: Total auto sales (cars+LCVs) in Dec’14 grew by 25%YoY registering at 11,018 units, with car sales clocking in at 9,522 units (+32%YoY) thanks to the new model launches in the 1300cc+ category. As a result, 1HFY15 car sales are up by 11%YoY at 58,727 units. At the same time, LCV/Pickup sales have also shown decent growth of 8%MoM to stand at 1,565 units in Dec’14. While 1HFY15 tractor sales are up 9%YoY at 20,857 units, we see a steep sequential volumetric decline of 51% in Dec’14 with sales for AGTL and MTL down by 63%MoM and 75%MoM respectively.

 

PSMC: The company sold 6,245 units in Dec’14 (4%MoM/ flatYoY) to bring 1HFY15 sales to a flattish 35,701 units. While Ravi and Bolan continued to grow, sales for the rest of the variants were either flat or down as customers wait for the New Year.  Going forward, Jan’15 sales are expected to pick up on commencement of the New Year coupled with Punjab Rozgar Scheme. PSMC has gained 45% FYTD to trade at CY15F P/E of 6.5x where our TP of PkR427.5 implies an Accumulate stance. PSMC remains our preferred pick in the auto space where apart from margin expansion, the company is all set to grow volumetrically on account of the Punjab Rozgar Scheme.

 

INDU: While 1HFY15 sales of 22,883 units are up 51%YoY following recent launch of the new model, sales number for the month of Dec’14 have dropped by 9%MoM, clocking in at 4,097 units. Having gained 66%FYTD, our TP of PkR824.6/sh implies a Reduce stance. With the margin story already factored in the current price, we advise caution on INDU as we flag potential compression in rural incomes as a key challenge for volumes.

 

HCAR: With sales down 45%MoM, Dec’14 has clearly been a tough month for HCAR where Civic sales are lower by 49%MoM/34%YoY. Consequently, HCAR’s 1HFY15 sales have registered at 8,578 units; down 14%YoY.

 

Investment Perspective: Driven mainly by margin expansion on a weaker JPY (down -13.5%FYTD/-16.2% CYTD vs. PkR), the listed auto sector has gained 202%FYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index’s return of 13% over the same period. Though we expect weakness in JPY to continue, we believe volumetric uptick to drive the growth momentum for auto manufacturers going forward particularly as lower inflationary environment is expected to further increase auto financing. We continue to prefer PSMC (TP: PkR427.5/sh)



Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #465 on: January 13, 2015, 07:20:36 PM »
The Bell
 
Autos: 1HFY15 volumes up 10%, Dec-14 sees 25% YoY rise

1HFY15 volumes up 10%, Dec-14 sees 25% YoY rise
Sales for the month of Dec-14 registered at 11,087 units, surging by 25% YoY primarily due to low base effect of Corolla prior to launch of new model. INDU (+107%) remained the only outperformer in the industry during the month, PSMC and HCAR also witnessed modest growth of 4% and 5% YoY respectively. Overall cumulative automobile sales in 1HFY15 clocked in at 67,426 units, up 10.1% YoY
INDU maintains its outperformance streak
Despite volumetric decline in the Fortuner (-51% YoY) and Hilux (-60% YoY) variant, sales of INDU maintained its upward trend owing to continued exuberance in Corolla sales with total volumes rising by 107% to 4,097 units in Dec-14. While calendar year-end phenomenon led INDU’s Corolla to post MoM decline of 8%.
PSMC defies year end phenomenon
Volumetric sales trend of PSMC defied the obvious year-end demand slowdown with its volumes rising by 4% MoM and YoY to 6,245 units. The management had hinted that it has made some deliveries of Bolan and Ravi variant during Dec-14 under the ‘Apna Rozgar scheme’ which explains the unnatural MoM uptick in Ravi (+17% YoY) and Bolan (+7%) variant.
CY15 outlook: sanguine
We expect automobile volumes in CY15 to remain upbeat on account of 1) overall economic recovery 2) New model launches 3) ‘Apna Rozgar scheme’ by Punjab Govt and 4) downward interest-rate cycle which will likely stimulate auto loan trend. We expect margins to further improve in CY15 as weakness in Yen shall likely continue owing to quantitative easing in Japan whereas improving external outlook for Pakistan is set to keep PKR/USD parity relatively stable.

elixir

Offline MZ

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Offline Afzal

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #467 on: January 22, 2015, 01:42:42 PM »
why HCAR is under pressure? any upside expected in HCar in near terms? above 200?

Offline hasnain0099

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #468 on: January 22, 2015, 03:09:54 PM »
why HCAR is under pressure? any upside expected in HCar in near terms? above 200?
Strenght in JPY
Value Plays: ABL,CPPL,FEROZ,HMB,KAPCO,MCB,SPWL.
GrowthPlays: CHCC,ENGRO,MUGHAL,HASCOL,HINOON,SEARL,SPEL,EFOODS.
Yield Plays: ABL,SPWL,EPQL.

Offline salaara579

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #469 on: January 22, 2015, 10:35:29 PM »

Offline stockz_123

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #470 on: February 04, 2015, 11:59:00 AM »
AKD Daily

 

Autos: Strong CY15 start can extend price performance

 

Following the increase in automobile demand (e.g. HCAR has reportedly recovered highest ever sales in Jan'15) and continued macro improvement, we revisit our investment cases for INDU and PSMC. In this regard, we have increased our volumes assumptions for INDU by ~19% on average through FY15F-FY19F and marginally increased volumes assumptions for PSMC. With the increased volumes amidst a soft inflation environment we have revised our earnings forecast for INDU in the 16%-29% range for FY15F-FY19F and for PSMC by 1.3% on average in CY14E to CY18F. Together with rollover, this results in revised TP of PkR1,102/share for INDU (FY16F P/E: 11.2x) and PkR450/share for PSMC (CY16F P/E: 10.7x) where we have an Accumulate stance on both. While we acknowledge that auto shares have rallied very swiftly over the last year, we believe premium valuations are justified where the next 2-3yrs can potentially result in a compelling mix of strong margins and higher volumes. Risks emanate from the upcoming Auto policy, although the final draft is likely to take time to shape.

 

Higher volumes in 1HFY15: In 1HFY15 industry volumes rose by 10%YoY (Cars + LCVs) where INDU outshone with a growth of 51%YoY with sales of 22,883 units. As a result, INDU's market share improved to 37% in Dec'14 vs. 22% in Dec'13. At the same time, PSMC recorded sales volumes of 35,701 units in 1HFY15, flattish YoY with the market share of the company declining to 56% in Dec'14 vs. 67% in Dec'13. Based on a likely strong start in the new year (e.g. HCAR has reportedly posted highest ever sales of 3,231 units in Jan'15; +24%YoY), we expect FY15 volumes for INDU to clock in at ~54k units. Going forward, we raise our volume assumptions for INDU by 19% on average across our forecast horizon. Conversely, while we raise volume assumptions for PSMC as well, in this case the incremental estimate revisions are marginal.

 

Improved macros: Jan'15 CPI has clocked in at just 3.88%YoY, its lowest since the CPI index has rebased (FY07-08). Together with a stronger external a/c position, the monetary easing process (DR cut by 150bps FYTD to 8.5%) is likely to continue. This holds positives for auto financing, particularly as the SBP governor has recently hinted at taking regulatory steps to curb banks' margins. In this regard, the current auto finance growth run rate of 27%YoY can potentially increase. Note that auto financing as a % of outstanding private sector credit stands at 2% vs. ~5% in 2006/07. As a result, for the Pakistan Auto sector the next 2-3yrs can potentially result in a compelling mix of strong margins and higher volumes.

 

Result previews: We expect INDU to record NPAT of PkR2,589mn (EPS: PKR32.94) in 1HFY15 against NPAT of PkR1,352mn (EPS: PkR17.20) in 1HFY14, registering a robust growth of 91%YoY. In 2QFY15 alone, we expect INDU to record NPAT of PkR1,462mn (EPS: PkR18.60), registering a growth of 30%QoQ. Together with the result, we expect the company to announce an interim cash dividend of PkR15/share. For PSMC, we expect NPAT of PkR2,409mn (EPS: PKR29.28) in CY14, up by 30%YoY. In 4QCY14 alone we expect PSMC to record NPAT of PkR799mn (EPS: PkR9.71), higher by 39%QoQ with impetus provided by the Punjab Rozgar Scheme.

 

Investment perspective: INDU and PSMC have gained 15.7% and 15.1% CYTD, respectively outperforming the broader market by 7.4% and 6.7% in the same period. While the next Auto policy poses risks, we believe stakeholders still remain some way off reaching consensus which could continue to delay the policy's final announcement. Within this backdrop, we expect a likely strong start to CY15 to further buoy auto stocks. At current levels, INDU and PSMC trade at a forward P/E of 11.2x and 7.2x (CY16F: 10.7x) where our revised TPs are PkR1,102/share and PkR450/share respectively.

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #471 on: February 11, 2015, 06:45:17 PM »
Pakistan Car Assemblers: Jan 2015 car sales up 27%YoY – highest in last 31months
Pakistan car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) of local assemblers during Jan 2015 stood at 17,709 units, highest car sales since Jun 2012, compared to 13,910 units in the same month last year, depicts an increase of 27%YoY. Furthermore, car sales surged by 60%MoM. During 7MFY15, sales are up 13% to 85,135 units compared to 75,162 units in the same period last year led by Toyota Corolla new model and invoicing of Taxi Scheme.
Robust increase in tractor sales was observed after the reduction of General Sales Tax (GST) in last budget. In 7MFY15, tractor sales surged by 25% to 24,397 units compared to 19,564 units in the corresponding period last year. Millat Tractors lead the tractor segment in volumes by selling 14,965 units, up 28%YoY followed by Al-Ghazi tractors with 9,023 units, up 25%YoY.
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC): Highest monthly sales since Jun 2012
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales increased by 13%YoY to 7,987 units in Jan 2015. Volumes also improved by 29%on Month-on-Month basis. We attribute this improvement to the invoicing of cabs in Dec 2014 & Jan 2015 under the ‘Taxi scheme’. In 7MFY15, sales of PSMC rose by 2% at 43,643 units versus 42,581 units in 7MFY14.
The company witnessed improvement of 37%YoY in Mehran to 3,467 units in Jan 2015 versus 2,531 units in Jan 2014. However, Ravi showed a slight improvement of 1%MoM to 1,285 units while sales of Bolan remained fairly stable on month-on-month basis. We believe that relatively stable numbers of Ravi and Bolan in Jan 2015 is due to slight delay in Taxi Scheme. Both, Ravi and Bolan, will be delivered under taxi scheme.
We maintain ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip which is trading at 2015F PE of 9.3x.
Indus Motors (INDU): Highest ever monthly sales
INDU sold 6,415 units in Jan 2015, up 61% compared to 3,992 units in the same month last year. On MoM basis, INDU sales increased by 57% from 4,100 units in Dec 2014. During 7MFY15, sales increased by 53% to 29,301 units.
INDU’s flagship ‘Corolla’ posted an increase of 51%MoM to 5,864 units compared to 3,882 units in Dec 2014. We attribute this increase to the sale of Corolla’s new model coupled with New Year registration phenomenon.
On yearly basis, Corolla sales surged significantly by 63% compared to 3,611 units in the same month last year.
We maintain our ‘Hold’ stance on the Indus Motors which currently trading at FY15E PE of 12.3x.
Honda Cars (HCAR): Highest monthly sales in last 9 year
HCAR sold 3,221 units in Jan 2015 compared to 2,600 units in the same month last year, up 24%YoY. On Month-on-Month basis, HCAR sales increased by 360% in Jan 2015 from 700 units in Dec 2014. Last time it was in Mar 2006 when the company sold 3,522 units.
In 7MFY15, sales of HCAR have now registered a decline of 6% to 11,809 units mainly due to the introduction of Corolla’s new model in July 2014.

Topline

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #472 on: February 12, 2015, 05:39:45 PM »
The Bell
 
Autos: January effect boosts industry volumes

January volumes rise by 27% YoY
Automobile sales for the month of Jan-15 registered at 17,709 units, surging by 27% YoY primarily due to greater exuberance witnessed in the higher end segment with both Corolla (+62%) and City (+59%) variant leading the pack. PSMC (+13% YoY) and HCAR (+24% YoY) also posted sizable gains during the month as January effect kicked on. Overall, cumulative volumes in 7MFY15 clocked in at 85,135 units, up 13% YoY.
All time high Corolla sales and production
INDU continued with its outperformance streak into January as well with its Corolla variant posting an all time high sales of 5,864 units (+62% YoY) during the period. Production volumes also touched an all time high of 6,016 units, indicating that demand for Corolla is expected to remain robust for at least in the next few months.
One-off in HCAR; PSMC rescued by Mehran
Volumes of HCAR rose to 3,221 units; up by 24% YoY during the month primarily led by growth in volumes of its City variant which rose by 59% YoY whereas sales of its Civic variant fell by 13% YoY. PSMC’s volumes on the other hand witnessed a relatively modest growth of 13% YoY, rescued by sizable growth in Mehran volumes (+37%) while sales of its other variants remained depressed.
PSMC launches Kizashi; we remain skeptical of its success
PSMC yesterday launched Suzuki Kizashi, a 2400cc CBU variant with a substantial price tag of PKR5mn. We believe response from the customers is likely to be minimal given the value proposition of the car against already established and relatively cheaper luxurious brands present in the market (Audi, Mercedes and BMW).

elixir

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #473 on: February 12, 2015, 05:40:35 PM »
AKD Daily
 
Auto Sector: A perfect start to the New year!

 
Led by spectacular monthly offtake performance by HCAR and INDU that sold 3,221 units (up 4.8xMoM/24%YoY) and 6,415 units (up 57%MoM/61%YoY) respectively, 2015 kicked off on a high note for the auto industry. In this regard, the industry witnessed record high sales of 17,709 units (cars+LCVs) in the month of Jan'15, taking 7MFY15 sales figure to 85,135 units vs. 75,162 units in 7MFY14. While the New Year phenomenon has played its part in driving up volumes, we believe new model launches further carried forward the momentum. In tandem, tractor sales also continued their upward journey selling 3,540 units in Jan'15 (+602%YoY/+48%MoM) taking 7MFY15 volumes higher by 29%YoY to 24,397 units. Having outperformed the market by 9.4% CYTD, we feel Auto sector has little to offer going forward where we highlight the auto policy as a key event that can dictate sector's price performance.   
 
Company wise breakup:
 
HCAR- couldn't have been better: With regards to sales volume, Jan'15 turned to be the best ever month for HCAR where the company sold 3,221 units in the month; up 24%YoY. Amongst the variants, City remained the star performer for HCAR with the highest ever sales volume of 2,103 units while Civic sales jumped up to 1,118 units. Cumulatively, HCAR registered sales volume of 11,799 units in 7MFY15, down 6.3%YoY with 4,144 units of Civic and 7,655 units of City sold.
 
INDU- highest ever monthly sales: In line with HCAR, INDU also hit its highest ever monthly sales figure of 6,415 units (+57%MoM/+61%YoY). Led by phenomenal sales volume of 5,864 units of its flagship product, Corolla, the company's 7MFY15 volumes went up by a massive 53%YoY to 29,298 units. Amongst others, Hilux and Fortuner also picked up pace, growing by 147%MoM and 238%MoM to 480 units and 71 units, respectively. While the numbers show an encouraging trend, we believe the positives with respect to margin expansion and volumetric uptick on account of new models have largely been priced in. In this regard, the stock trades at a forward PE multiple of 11.3x where our TP of PkR1,102/share offers limited upside potential of 7.1%.
 
PSMC- volumes up 28%YoY in Jan'15: PSMC recorded sales volumes of 7,987 units in Jan'15, up by 28%MoM/13%YoY with 7MFY15 total sales volume of 43,688 units. Apart from Cultus (-3.6%MoM), every other variant for PSMC witnessed strong growth in the period under review, Mehran (+66%MoM to 3,467 units), Swift (+56%MoM to 313 units) and Wagon R (+144%MoM to 475 units). Going forward, we expect volumes for the company to remain strong as the Punjab taxi scheme kicks in. PSMC has gained 19.7% CYTD and outperformed the broader market by 13.3% in the same period. At current price the stock trades at CY16 PE multiple of 11.1x where our TP of PkR450/share implies a Neutral stance.               .
 
Tractors continue to shine: The tractor industry recorded sales of 24,397 units (+29%YoY) in 7MFY15 on account of reduction in GST in Federal Budget FY15 to 10%. In Jan'15 alone, the industry recorded sales volume of 3,540 units (+48%MoM/602%YoY) due to abnormally lower sales in Jan'14. Company wise breakup reveal, MTL sold 2,154 units (+38%MoM)  in the month whereas AGTL recorded sales volume of 1,310 units (+72%MoM)  culminating into 7MFY15 sales volume of 14,965 units and 9,023 units, respectively.
 
Investment Perspective: The auto sector has gained 9.4% CYTD outperforming KSE-100 Index by 3.0% in the same period with stock prices at their all-time high levels. While the industry's volumetric uptick is encouraging, we see limited upside triggers for the auto sector in general. Moreover, any development on the Auto Policy front can further dictate price performance accordingly. At current levels, we have an Accumulate stance on INDU with a TP of PkR1,102/sh wheras PSMC at a TP of PkR450/sh implies a Neutral stance.


Offline SoloRunner

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #474 on: February 23, 2015, 12:19:47 AM »
Ghani auto board meeting tomorrow,  :$:

Offline SBM

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #475 on: March 10, 2015, 08:01:20 PM »
I hate waking up.

Offline Alpha

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #476 on: March 10, 2015, 09:09:39 PM »

Offline SoloRunner

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #477 on: March 10, 2015, 09:51:02 PM »
so whats the future , auto will run or not ?

Offline syeduzair

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #478 on: March 10, 2015, 10:19:32 PM »
 :fingerscrossed1: will fly INSHALLAH