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Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #559 on: October 12, 2015, 10:37:35 PM »
Pakistan Automobile: 1QFY16 car sales continue its upward trajectory
Led by taxi scheme and overall improvement in economic situation in the country, Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) have posted a 72% YoY increase in 1QFY16. During the first 3-month (Jul-Sep) FY16, local vehicle sales stood at 54,812 units versus 31,899 units in 1QFY15. It is important to note that, in Sep 2015, despite less working days due to Eid holidays, local car sales rose by 45% YoY to 18,424 units while they declined by 10% MoM. Imported cars are roughly ~15% of local assembled cars.
Tractor segment, on the other hand, posted a decline of 28% YoY during 1QFY16 to reach at 6,745 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy schemes. To recall, Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16 announced subsidy of 25,000/29,000 tractors. In the month of Sep 2015, however, some encouragement was seen as tractor sales stood at 3,096 units – up 54% MoM.
Overall healthy growth in auto sector is indicative of increase in per capita income, improved farmer economics and overall recovery of the economy. Car financing is also picking up gradually (currently estimated at 30% versus 5% few years back). To recall, car sales (excluding imported) in Pakistan grew at a 5-year (FY11-15) CAGR of 5.3% to 179,953 units while volumes surged by 31% in FY15 on the back of new model of Toyota Corolla, Taxi Scheme of Punjab Govt. and an increase in car financing due to 42-year low interest rates in the country. We forecast local car sales to grow at 13% in FY16 to reach at 203,653 units.
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC): Taxi Scheme provided support
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales increased by 98% YoY to 33,770 units in 1QFY16 primarily due to Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme.
Volumes declined by 12% Month-on-Month basis due to extended Eid holidays in Sep 2015.
We estimate profitability of PSMC to grow 139% in 2015E on the back of volumetric growth and weakening of JPY against PKR.
We maintain ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip which is trading at 2015E PE of 7.9x.
Indus Motors (INDU): New Model of Toyota Corolla is still in demand
INDU sold 14,767 units in1QFY16 compared to 9,862 units in the same quarter last year. It is pertinent to note that customers were waiting for the new model of Toyota Corolla in the same period last year which was the main reason for abnormally low base.
In the month of Sep 2015, INDU sales stood at 4,984 units which rose by 6% YoY. On MoM basis, however, following the trend in PSMC due to holidays, INDU sales decreased by 10%. Just to highlight, Toyota’s new Corolla model is sold out for next 3-4 months according to our contacts in the industry.
We estimate earnings of INDU to grow at 135% and 6% in FY15E and FY16F, respectively. We have a ‘Buy’ stance on INDU which is currently trading at FY15E PE of 8.8x.
Honda Cars (HCAR): Growing sales despite new model of competitor
HCAR sold 6,184 units in 1QFY16 compared to 4,887 units in the same period last year. In Sep 2015, HCAR sold 2,001 units who increased by 14% YoY while remained flat on Month-on-Month basis.
It is important to note that HCAR consistently posting sales growth despite the new model of Toyota Corolla launched by its competitor. This indicates that overall market size of Pakistan automobile sector is growing.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy affected sales
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their volumes during 1QFY16. Our industry sources revealed that farmers are waiting for the execution of announced subsidy schemes by Punjab and Sindh Govt.
MTL sold 4,392 units in 1QFY15 compared to 6,086 units in the same period last year. On Month-on-Month basis, MTL sales increased by 75% to 2,320 units in Sep 2015 from 1,329 units in Aug 2015.
AGTL sold 710 units in Sep 2015 compared to 1,104 units in the same month last year. On Month-on-Month basis, AGTL sales increased by 18% in Sep 2015 from 601 units in Aug 2015.

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #559 on: October 12, 2015, 10:37:35 PM »

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #560 on: October 13, 2015, 07:13:42 PM »
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Autos: Unprecedented growth drives value

In the recently released figures by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Pakistan's auto industry sales/production for 9MCY15 showed a substantial jump of 56%/53%YoY amounting to 167,339/165,820 units sold/produced over the period. Although slight tapering was witnesses in MoM figures (industry car sales/produced were down 10%/9%MoM), local car sales/production for 9MCY15 have already trounced the total number for CY14, and is on track to be a record year for the industry in terms of production and sales. Riding on the new model effect, the major contributor to cumulative sales/production volumes remained INDU as the company recorded 48,827/48,589units (increase of 70%YoY) followed by PSMC with 96,948/91,535units (rising by 64%YoY). As a whole, automobile sales/production grew at a 5yr CAGR of 5.2%/5.3%, reflecting healthy growth of the auto industry market. Additionally the quantum of imported CBU units (PBS data till Aug'15) climbed by 60%YoY to US$305.3mn vs. US$190.7mn in 8MCY14. We re-iterate our liking for PSMC which benefits from lower input costs and higher sales, currently trading at an appealing CY15/16F PE of 8.9x/9.5x, with 18% upside to our TP of PkR517/share.
PSMC: The company recorded volumetric sales/production of 11,389/11,469 units in Sept'15, up by 84%/66%YoY but receding by 12%/7%MoM. Cumulative sales/production volume amounted to 96,948/96,418units with the greatest gains recorded in the sales/production of Ravi (up 2.4x/2.6x) and Bolan (up 2.2x/2.4x) on the back of Punjab Rozgar Scheme. On a YoY basis, Mehran/Wagon R/Cultus sales rose by 49%/169%/31% solidifying the dominance of the OEM in the 1000cc and below segment.
INDU: The company posted sales/production of 4,984/5,024 units during Sept'15; up 6%YoY but down 6%MoM. Sales volumes of Corolla were at 4,672 units, up by only 7%YoY and falling 6%MoM as the high base effect of the new model makes incremental sales growth more arduous. On a cumulative basis 9MCY15 sales/production figures clocked in at 48,827/48,589 units growing by 1.4xYoY with growth not just from the 11th Generation Corolla (sales growth of 1.6xYoY), but also from Fortuner/Hilux (rise of 1.2x/47%YoY) variants.
HCAR: Honda registered comparatively lackluster sales of 2,001 units in Sept'15, down 20%YoY and flat over last month. Cumulative market share for the company in the 1300cc and above segment now rests at 31% vs. 39%. The company sold 540 units of Civic (-20%MoM/+1%YoY) and 1,461 units of City (0%MoM/+36%YoY).
Investment Perspective: All signs point to the industry undergoing a phase of rapid growth, with the sustainability of this phase dependent on 1) consumers availing auto financing, 2) introduction of new models and 3) the yet to be released Auto policy limiting the threat from new entrants, particularly international players with spare capacity in the region. Moreover, lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure related activity seems to have positively impacted 9MCY15 cumulative demand in the 4X4 and Pick Ups segment with overall sales in the segment rising by 108%YoY. We re-iterate our linking for PSMC which benefits from lower input costs and higher sales, dominance in key segments, and strong exposure to the growing pick-up segment. The stock currently trades at a healthy CY15/16F PE of 8.9x/9.5x, with 18% upside to our TP of PkR517/share.

Offline Loto or Photo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #561 on: October 20, 2015, 07:45:38 PM »

Offline value786

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #562 on: October 22, 2015, 07:51:07 PM »
Any update about Indus Motors  ?

and it's board meeting ?

Offline alicima

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #563 on: November 05, 2015, 11:03:18 AM »
http://www.dawn.com/news/1217511

Major carmakers to introduce new models next year

KARACHI: Pakistan’s auto industry landscape is expected to see some new models from next year on, with Honda introducing subcompact crossover HR-V, Suzuki replacing Cultus with Celerio, and Toyota rumoured to start local assembling of Vitz and Vios.

Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Limited will introduce HR-V — a 1,497cc completely built unit of Thailand origin — in January 2016.

Shabbir Alibhai, owner of Honda Quaideen Motors, told Dawn the company has informed its authorised dealers that the vehicle would cost around Rs3.5 million. The exact price, however, would be announced at the time of the launch based on the exchange rate.

Take a look: Pakistan yet to develop own auto standards

He said Honda has already ordered an initial lot of limited stocks. Customers would be paying an advance amount of Rs500,000 at the time of booking, and the balance one month before delivery of the vehicle.

Market sources said the carmaker also plans to unveil Honda Civic’s 2016 model, which has already been introduced in various countries, in the second half of next year. Besides, the new City model is also due for a change.

Sources said Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited is also planning to replace its flagship Suzuki Cultus with Celerio — a 1,000cc hatchback — by end-2016 or the first quarter of 2017. The company may also unveil more new models after 2016.

Local vendors, who asked not to be named, said many of their counterparts are engaged in making parts and accessories.

In 2000, Pak Suzuki introduced Cultus replacing Khyber. In its span of 15 years, Cultus enjoyed a boom period with sales of 29,837 in 2006-07 and 27,563 units in 2007-08. Its sales, however, have floundered since then, dropping to 13,837 units in FY15 from 14,682 in FY14, as buyers shifted to used cars.

At a time when vendors are already producing Celerio parts, a Pak Suzuki official requesting anonymity said: “So far there are no plans for introducing any replacement of Cultus.”

Market is also abuzz with reports that the Indus Motor Company — the makers of Toyota cars in Pakistan — also considers starting local assembly of Toyota Vitz and Toyota Vios during 2018-2020. A spokesman for the company, however, dismissed such reports as “just market rumours”.

Auto assemblers and their vendors are making new investments cautiously, fearing any policy change in favour of imported used cars followed by a long delay in the announcement of new auto policy, a leading vendor said.

“Investment in the auto sector by the local industry will pick up pace once the industry is assured of policy consistency in the long term and curbs on import of used cars”.

He said the government must also consider reducing taxes and duties on locally assembled cars. Almost 35 per cent of a vehicle’s price is comprised of taxes, he said, adding that the government receives taxes worth Rs500,000 on a Honda City priced at Rs1.5m.

He said the government plans to offer incentives to new entrants in the upcoming auto policy. “The policy must also cater to targeting investments from existing assemblers as well as auto parts manufacturers who are in a better position to expand capacity and introduce new models at affordable prices.”

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #564 on: November 11, 2015, 10:10:08 PM »
Autos: Volumes maintain upward trajectory in Oct-15 (?54% YoY)
As per the recent published data by PAMA, automobile sales for the month of October-15 clocked in at 18,901 units; up by 54%YoY/6%MoM. In 4MFY16, cumulative volumes grew by 67%YoY, led by robust growth emanating from PSMC.
During the period under review, PSMC continued with its outperformance streak with ‘Rozgar scheme’ providing the impetus to volumes which grew by 90% YoY, while MoM basis the company witnessed a meager expansion of 7%. Apart from Rozgar scheme variants, Mehran volumes also remained robust depicting a growth of 45% during the month. On a cumulative basis, volumes of PSMC have surged by 96%YoY to 43,539 units.
INDU’s volumes remained impressive with Corolla (+20% YoY) leading the gains. Total volumes increased by 23%YoY to 5,460 units as compared to 4,425 units same period last year. While on a cumulative basis, volumes increased by 42% compared to same period last year.
HCAR volumes dropped by 6%MoM to 1,875 units, however on YoY basis the volumes accreted by 8% YoY. 4MFY15 volumes have grown by 22%YoY.

Offline Loto or Photo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #565 on: November 11, 2015, 11:33:57 PM »

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #566 on: November 12, 2015, 08:25:09 PM »
AKD Daily
 
Oct’15 Auto Numbers: Confirming our Growth Thesis

 
Monthly Automobile sales and production data is out, with 19,729 units being sold (up 7%MoM and 56%YoY) of which 15,709 automobiles (increasing 3%MoM and 40%YoY) were sold, and 4,020 LCVs (growing 25%MoM and 183%YoY) made up total offtake. Shelving of the Punjab and Sindh tractor schemes has deteriorated sales, with tractor sales for the month slipping by 22%MoM/43%YoY to 2,403 units. PSMC recorded sales of 12,338 units (up 8%MoM/99%YoY) in Oct'15, whereas sales figures for INDU for the month sales reached 5,460units (up 10%MoM/23%YoY), reflecting a sustained uptick in Corolla sales (4,912 units sold increasing 5%MoM/20%YoY). HCAR offtake numbers remained largely unexciting, with Oct'15 sales of 1,875 units (-6%MoM/+8%YoY) reflecting more of the same. As monthly numbers confirm our overall positive outlook on the sector, we maintain an ACCUMULATE stance on INDU (TP:PkR1,283, upside 15%) and FY16F D/Y of 7% while our BUY call on PSMC (TP:PkR584, 30% upside) is re-iterated.
 
PSMC: Selling 12,338 units (up 8%MoM/99%YoY) in Oct'15, allowing 10MCY15 sales to clock in at 109,286units, marking a drastic increase of 1.67xYoY, propelled from the Rozgar Scheme (Ravi/Bolan sales for 10MCY15 at 29,003/29,914units up 1.7x/1.5xYoY). Confirming our case for strong uptick in sales, Wagon R/Mehran/Cultus sales for Oct'15 grew by 26%/18%/6%MoM, taking 10MCY15 sales growth to 1.1x/19%/4%. Sales figures have marked a high water mark for the OEM, which is now exceeding all past sales figures.        .
 
INDU: Oct'15 sales reached 5,460units (up 10%MoM/23%YoY), reflecting a sustained uptick in Corolla sales (4,912 units sold increasing 5%MoM/20%YoY), re-affirming our hypothesis of annual sales of Corolla crossing last year's total. Moreover, on a consolidated basis, 10MCY15 sales for the OEM amounted to 54,287units, depicting a rise of 64%YoY, with Corolla sales being the underlying factor (49,093 units sold). The Corolla further benefitted from robust growth of 42%YoY in the 1300 and above passenger car segment where its market share remains at 65%.
 
HCAR: Muted numbers reflecting an aging product line, and the absence of external propellants have kept HCAR offtake numbers largely unexciting, with Oct'15 sales of 1,875 units (-6%MoM/+8%YoY) reflecting more of the same.10MCY15 figures show a modest increase of 14%. Market share in the 1300 and above segment now stands at 31% vs. 38% during 10MCY14.
 
Tractor Sales: Lackluster monthly numbers reflect uncertainty over tractor subsidies, and delay in purchases by farmers ahead of the upcoming Rabi harvest. Oct'15 sales amounted to 2,403 units ( down 22%MoM, 43%YoY). Clarity on phasing out of the proposed tractor subsidies in the provinces is now apparent and is expected to adversely impact sales growth, which for 10MCY15 stands at 37%YoY (12,497 units for AGTL and 24,621 units for MTL).
 
Investment Perspective: As monthly numbers confirm our positive outlook on the sector, we maintain an ACCUMULATE stance on INDU with a June'16 TP of 1,283 and FY16F D/Y of 7% while our BUY call on PSMC stands at a Dec'16 TP of 584 offering 30% upside from last close.   

Offline phahad

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #567 on: November 12, 2015, 11:45:28 PM »
PSMC rally time?

Offline Loto or Photo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #568 on: November 13, 2015, 12:02:07 AM »
PSMC rally time?

INSHALLAH Feb- March target Rs:600

Offline momo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #569 on: November 13, 2015, 08:58:19 AM »
Buy recommended in PSMC?

Offline Sharoze123

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #570 on: November 13, 2015, 11:33:36 AM »
Buy recommended in PSMC?

It's a buy for me right now. But in chunks.
The column of truth has holes in it.

Client asks "So, what's two plus two?". Replies the cooperative accountant" Well, what number did you have in mind?"

ISL-SHEL-HUMNL-DSL-GHNL-SEARLE-CHCC-HCAR-ASL

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #571 on: November 17, 2015, 07:33:34 PM »
AKD Daily
Autos: Estimate Revision on JPY and Steel price weakness

Prolonged weakness in the Yen is expected to follow, in part due to: 1) the Japanese economy exhibiting another bout of weakness (3Q GDP contracted 0.8%), 2) industrial investment declined (5% YoY) with both developments expected to keep the currency under pressure. Additionally, global steel prices remain under pressure as: 1) China extends exports of cold rolled steel products by 18%YoY leading to a slide of 25-50% in global steel prices, 2) Japanese inventory of steel product rests at 5.8mn tonnes with inventory due for exports building up (Sept'15 inventory levels gained 1.14xYoY). Amending our estimates for the AKD Auto Universe, we accommodate weakness in the JPY and steel prices in our earnings estimates for FY16/17/18 for INDU raising our estimated earnings by 2%/3%/3%, in turn raising our June'16 TP by 2% to PkR1,305, while maintaining our Accumulate stance. PSMC retains its BUY rating with earnings for CY16/17/18 being tapered by 1%/2%/2% rationalizing our Dec'16 TP to PkR580.
Weakness in the JPY to persist: In the long term, weakness in the JPY, slowdown in industrial productivity accompanied by modest wage growth is expected to keep the currency weak. Accommodating estimates from Bloomberg forecasts for JPY/US$ cross rates and AKD Research estimates for weakness in the PkR vs. US$ over the same period, we have amended earnings outlook accordingly. To gauge overall responsiveness in earnings to changes in PkR/JPY assumptions, a sensitivity analysis is given below, key takeaway from which is the relatively strong footing for INDU to swings in JPY as its flagship Corolla has a high degree of localization (~60%).
Investment Perspective: Tweaking our estimates for the AKD Auto Universe, we accommodate weakness in the JPY and steel prices in our earnings estimates for FY16F/17F/18F for INDU raising our estimated earnings by 2%/3%/3% in turn inching our June'16 TP by 2% to PkR1,305, while maintaining our Accumulate stance. This takes FY16F P/E to 10x where recent weakness has opened upside of 18% to last close. While PSMC's earnings for CY16/17/18 are being revised down by 1%/2%/2%, we maintain our BUY stance on the scrip (earnings growth of 20%YoY in CY16F ex- Roagar scheme).
 

Offline Alpha

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #572 on: November 30, 2015, 09:18:09 PM »
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used

Offline invincible

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #573 on: December 02, 2015, 11:01:43 AM »
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Offline Alpha

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #574 on: December 02, 2015, 11:24:55 AM »
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

Offline SBM

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #575 on: December 02, 2015, 02:31:57 PM »
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

but what about hcar plans to import hrv?
I hate waking up.

Offline Sharoze123

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #576 on: December 02, 2015, 02:33:53 PM »
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

but what about hcar plans to import hrv?

I think someone asked Ishaq about this, about local manufacturers imports. He said they wouldn't be affected since they are exempted from this under some SRO.
The column of truth has holes in it.

Client asks "So, what's two plus two?". Replies the cooperative accountant" Well, what number did you have in mind?"

ISL-SHEL-HUMNL-DSL-GHNL-SEARLE-CHCC-HCAR-ASL

Offline Alpha

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #577 on: December 02, 2015, 03:42:16 PM »
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

but what about hcar plans to import hrv?

Everything in flux due to absence of auto policy.

Hrv/vezel may be just one of the proposals may or may not materialize.

Offline Ali135

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #578 on: December 02, 2015, 10:25:16 PM »
🇨🇳China Pakistan Economic Corridor beneficiaries
GHNI - Isuzu trucks (100 per month)
also purported orders from Navy
GHNL - UD trucks continuation till Dec2016 + small dongfeng trucks + cars
GTYR - market share increasing due to increased capacity + cheaper raw material benefit
HINO - 200 trucks every month
LINDE - electrodes directed to power plant envisioned by Chinese
BERG - Various products to be used as per company's director report
APL - Asphalt marketed by one of the only OMC
ASTL - rebars ordered by Chinese contractors for gigantic projects
FCCL - FWO is the main contractor which is using road quality FCCL bags
DYNO - formaldehyde producer
PCAL - best copper wire producer
Generally speaking, all OMCs, steel makers, blasting companies, fibre optic, trucks etc would be beneficiary