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Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #639 on: April 12, 2016, 06:16:58 PM »
AKD Daily
Autos: Steady growth underlie March’16 offtake

Automotive sales/production was recorded at 17,587/17,424 units in March’16, growing 11%/27%MoM, but down 17%/17%YoY, largely in line with expectation of post-Rozgar scheme tapered growth scenario. Cumulative, 9MFY16 sales/production remained robust, resting at 166,898/167,217 units increasing 35%/35%YoY, driven by offtake from PSMC (100,663 units sold, rising 51%YoY) and INDU (47,504 units sold, rising 18%YoY). 800 and below 1000cc segment exhibited 49%YoY climb for 9MFY16 (53,715 units sold, led by Mehran and Bolan), followed by the 1000cc segment rising 34%YoY (18,609 units sold, Cultus sales climbed 2.05xYoY) and the 1300cc and above segment increased by 17%YoY (64,882 units sold with 20%YoY growth in Corolla sales). LCV sales outpaced the passenger car segment, where 9MFY16 sales amounted to 29,692 units, an increase of 62%YoY, accentuated by Rozgar scheme driven offtake. We remain bullish on local OEMs as new entrants remain few and far in between (approximately 18 months required for Greenfield production). Citing continuation of robust growth, and retaining our FY16 sales volumes estimates, we recommend a position in INDU with (FCFE based) TP of PkR1,160/sh, implying a Buy stance.   
PSMC: Recording volumetric sales/production of 9,055/7,938 units in March'16, up 8%/45%MoM, but falling 30%/37%YoY, reeling from completion of the Punjab Rozgar Scheme. In the absence of monthly breakdown of Rozgar scheme deliveries, if we adjust March'15 sales by an average of the 50,000 deliveries under the scheme (4,167units delivered monthly on average for the duration of the scheme), tepid 3%YoY growth in offtake is recorded.  Cumulative sales/production volume for 9MFY16 amounted to 100,663/100,891 units (increase of 51%/51%YoY) with the greatest gains recorded in the sales/production of Wagon R (up 2.05x/2.06YoY), Bolan (up 82%/78%YoY) and Ravi (up 81%/78YoY). Additionally, Cultus sales for March'16 rose by 43%MoM and 2%YoY following newly launched 'face-lift' model of the variant and eventual phasing out of the variant by 1QCY17.
INDU: The OEM posted sales/production of 5,781/5,827 units during March'16 gaining 10%/7%MoM, while finding it difficult to eek out annual growth of 0.3%/9.3%YoY. Sales volumes of Corolla were at 5,275 units, up 2%YoY, while growing 9%MoM, against a lackluster February'16. On a cumulative basis 9MFY16 sales/production figures for the Corolla clocked in at 43,344/43,440 units growing by 20%/20%YoY, followed by 11.5%YoY sales growth, exhibited by the Hilux. INDU continues to dominate the 1,300cc segment, as the Corolla controls 67% market share in the segment vs. 65% from the year before.
HCAR: Sales growth continued to quicken pace with the OEM recording total sales of 2,749 units up 27%MoM faring 16%YoY higher. Losing market share despite growing offtake became a matter of failing to tap growing demand. While the 1300cc and above segment during 9MFY16 expanded 17%YoY, HCAR's offtake fell short of matching growth, leading to tapering of market share for the company.
Outlook: Segment-wise growth, and ensuing impact on dominant OEM's continued, while recent passing through of cost increases to customers failed to dent demand for the time being. Highlighting the release of the ADP-II as a major industry shift, we remain bullish on local OEMs as new entrants remain few and far in between (approximately 18 months required for Greenfield production). Citing continuation of robust growth, and retaining our FY16 sales volumes estimates, we recommend position in INDU with (FCFE based) TP of PkR1,160/sh, implying Buy stance.

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #639 on: April 12, 2016, 06:16:58 PM »

Offline aftab6274974

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #640 on: May 10, 2016, 11:43:15 AM »
April ka data aj aiga ya kal??? any info?

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #641 on: May 10, 2016, 08:37:24 PM »
Pakistan Short Report : (May 10, 2016)
Pakistan Automobile: 10MFY16 car sales reached 184,099 units, up 29% YoY
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 29% YoY growth during 10MFY16 owing to rise in auto financing due to 42-year low interest rates, taxi scheme, improving law & order situation and overall improvement in country’s economic situation. During 10MFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 184,099 units versus 142,814 units in the same period last year.
PSMC: Post-completion of Taxi scheme
Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales increased by 41% YoY to 109,628 units in 10MFY16 primarily due to Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme.
Volumes decreased by 18% YoY (1% MoM) in April 2016 (second month after the completion of Taxi Scheme) to 8,965 units primarily due to completion of Taxi Scheme.
INDU: Toyota Corolla still commanding waiting period
Indus Motors (INDU) sold 52,987 units in 10MFY16 versus 45,978 units in 10MFY15. In April 2016, sales fell 6% YoY to 5,483 units.
On MoM basis, sales declined 5% due fewer working days in Apr 2016 compared to Mar 2016.
It is important to note that delivery time for new corolla model is still hovering in the range of 2-4 months depending on the variant.
HCAR: New model of Civic is expected to hit the market in 2H2016
Honda Cars (HCAR) sold 21,293 units in 10MFY16 compared to 18,781 units in the same period last year. In Apr 2016, HCAR sold 2,751 units, up 16% YoY (flat MoM). We believe that Honda City remained the major contributor in this growth.
Volumes of Honda Civic are expected to dry out in coming months in anticipation of new model launch in 2H2016.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy affected sales
Pakistan tractor segment posted a decline of 31% YoY during 10MFY16 to reach at 26,586 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy scheme of 25,000/29,000 tractors which was announced by Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16.
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their sales volumes during 10MFY16 as farmers are waiting for the execution of announced subsidy schemes by Punjab and Sindh Govt. Tractor manufacturers are requesting the Govt. either to execute or shelve the announced scheme so that farmers resume their normal purchasing.
MTL sold 15,974 units in 10MFY16 compared to 23,426 units in the same period last year. Sales of the company decreased by 29% YoY to 2,440 units in Apr 2016. (down 4% MoM)
During 10MFY16, AGTL witnessed a decline of 30% YoY in sales to 9,882 units. Company sold 1,935 units in Apr 2016, up 23% YoY (7% MoM). Farmers seem to have resumed regular purchases due to uncertainty in subsidy scheme.
Trucks & Buses segment of Pakistan automobile sector has posted an increase of 42% YoY to reach at 5,076 units in 10MFY16. We attribute this surge in demand to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and improving law & order situation in the country.

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Offline SBM

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #642 on: May 11, 2016, 01:58:51 AM »
I hate waking up.

Offline alidxb

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #643 on: May 11, 2016, 11:43:53 AM »
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 29% YoY growth during 10MFY16 owing to rise in auto financing due to 42-year low interest rates, taxi scheme, improving law & order situation and overall improvement in country’s economic situation. During 10MFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 184,099 units versus 142,814 units in the same period.
In the long run, everything settles at the place it deserves.

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #644 on: May 11, 2016, 07:48:18 PM »
AKD Daily
 
April'16 Auto Numbers: Coming off the high bas
e
Apr'16 automobile sales and production data is out, with 17,201 units constituting total offtake (down 2%MoM and lower by 10%YoY) of which 15,023 automobiles (creeping lower by 2%MoM and 4%YoY) were sold during the past month. Cumulative 10MFY16 industry sales stand at 184,099 units (growth of 29%YoY), where growth from Car sales (152,229 units growing 26%YoY) and LCV offtake (31,870 units increasing by 46%YoY) were in play.  PSMC recorded cumulative sales of 109,628 units (up 41%YoY due to Rozgar sales of ~7months being factored in), while sales figures for INDU reached 52,987units (sturdy incline of 15%YoY, led by 48,203 units of the Corolla being sold). HCAR offtake growth remained unexciting, with sales growth of 13%YoY remaining the lowest amongst big 3 manufacturers with its market share dipping to 29% (vs. 30% during 10MFY15) in the 1,300CC segment. CYTD sales growth in the passenger car segment slowed to 0.3%YoY, held back by 8.3%YoY fall in 800 and below 1000CC segment offtake (1,887 fewer units sold YoY with Bolan sales falling 31%YoY) countered by 27%YoY rise in the 1000CC as the 1300CC and above sales growth proved flattish. For INDU, where a large cash pile, sustained demand profile, coupled with the absence of major CAPEX outlays, we raise our FY17F/18F DPS estimates by PkR5/5 per share, bringing D/Y for the years to 8%/9%.             .
PSMC: Selling 8,965 units (down 1%MoM/18%YoY) in April'16, the decline in  volumes added to the emerging trend of post-Rozgar 4MCY16 sales decline of 7%YoY. Additionally, this was further backed by Ravi/Bolan sales falling by 27%/31% ( 2,871/3233 fewer units sold YoY). That said, Mehran/Cultus/Wagon R sales provided stability, growing by 11%/11%/60%YoY.
INDU: April'16 sales reached 5,483units (up 0.1%MoM/16%YoY), reflecting a minor contraction in Corolla sales (4,859 units sold falling 8%MoM/10%YoY). Despite this, 10MFY16 Corolla sales of 48,203 units (rising 16%YoY) are on track to meet our FY16E target of 58.4K units (growth of 14%YoY) re-affirming our hypothesis of annual sales crossing last year's total. Moreover, on a consolidated basis, 10MCY15 sales for the OEM amounted to 54,287units, depicting a rise of 64%YoY, with Corolla sales being the underlying factor (49,093 units sold). The Corolla further benefitted from the robust growth of 42%YoY in the 1300 and above passenger car segment where its market share remains at 65%.            .
Investment Perspective: Interim dividends paid out by INDU (quarterly since 4QFY15) remain reflective of a strong cash position (3QFY16 Cash + Short term Investments at PkR35.4bn taking up 65% of its asset base), while sustained demand growth for the Corolla meet our expectations (FY16F/17F sales growth expected at +14%/-20%YoY). In the absence of significant CAPEX, we raise our FY17F/18F DPS estimates by PkR5/5 per share, bringing D/Y for the years to 8%/9%.

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #645 on: May 11, 2016, 07:51:03 PM »
 
Elixir Insight

Automobile Assemblers-
Passenger car sales drop by 2%MoM/4%YoY
As per the latest data published by Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association, passenger car sales for the month of Apr-16 declined 2% sequentially, while scaling up 4%YoY clocking in at 15,021 units.
During the month, HCAR volumes surged by 16%YoY, however volumes of INDU and PSMC declined by 6% YoY and 18% YoY, respectively.
We expect cumulative auto volumes to expand by 4-5% over the medium term on the back of 1) expanding auto credit (?32% YoY or up PKR24.6bn) &, 2) economic growth in the back drop of low auto density.

http://www.elixirsec.com/Research/ElixirInsight11052016.pdf?utm_source=Research%2BReports&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BellDownload

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #646 on: June 05, 2016, 12:16:37 PM »
Automobiles Assemblers – Neutral
?The implementation of the Auto Development Policy (ADP) 2016-21 is expected to commence from Jul-16. As discussed prior to the budget, the ADP is a negative for the Big 3 Auto assemblers, considering the additional incentives it provides to new entrants over existing assemblers.
?Increased incentives to the agriculture sector proposed in the Budget FY17 should prop up farmer income, and thus provide support to automobiles sales going forward.
?Government has proposed an advance tax of 3% on value of motor vehicles for non-filers, which will be collected when the vehicle is leased. This could potentially put a dent on the auto financing sales, which have recently been providing a major chunk of volumetric growth for the sector (35-40% of sector volumes attributed to auto financing sales, as per industry experts).
?Super Tax of 3% will be charged on Automobile sector, which is expected to hurt sector’s earnings by 4-6%.
?Our top pick in the sector is INDU.
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Offline Atif1

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #647 on: June 06, 2016, 12:41:34 PM »
www.wsj.com/articles/Japanese-yen-strengthens-erases-may-losses-1465190251

Japanese Yen Strengthens, Erases May Losses
Yen has been surging this year since the Bank of Japan introduced negative rates
By GREGOR STUART HUNTER
June 6, 2016 1:17 a.m. ET
HONG KONG—Asian currencies weakened in trading on Monday, reversing some gains following Friday’s U.S. jobs report that all but wiped out expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this month.

The yen weakened 0.5% to 107.089 against the US dollar on Monday. It reached its strongest level against the green back in a month late friday, when the Japanese currency stood as strong as 106.35 against the US dollar.
Only dead fish goes with the flow.

Offline alidxb

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #648 on: June 08, 2016, 10:32:32 AM »
Auto sector boomed due to this policy decision:
Import of used cars: government decides to tighten procedures: The govt has decided to tighten used cars'' import procedures aimed at discouraging misuse of Commerce Ministry''s schemes by commercial importers and encouraging new investment in auto industry, official sources told. Pakistan''s annual import of used cars is around 30,000 units, mainly from Japan. Three-year used cars are imported into Pakistan through informal channels. However, FBR earns huge revenue on illegally imported used cars and insists on import of used cars on a commercial basis.
Source:http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/54176:import-of-used-cars-government-decides-to-tighten-procedures/?date=2016-06-08
In the long run, everything settles at the place it deserves.

Offline momo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #649 on: June 08, 2016, 11:03:35 PM »
Auto sector boomed due to this policy decision:
Import of used cars: government decides to tighten procedures: The govt has decided to tighten used cars'' import procedures aimed at discouraging misuse of Commerce Ministry''s schemes by commercial importers and encouraging new investment in auto industry, official sources told. Pakistan''s annual import of used cars is around 30,000 units, mainly from Japan. Three-year used cars are imported into Pakistan through informal channels. However, FBR earns huge revenue on illegally imported used cars and insists on import of used cars on a commercial basis.
Source:http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/54176:import-of-used-cars-government-decides-to-tighten-procedures/?date=2016-06-08

More detrimental for consumers, again. Why can't they just let these automakers fend for themselves? They've been provided plenty of protection.

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #650 on: June 10, 2016, 05:52:10 PM »
Pakistan Automobile: 11MFY16 car sales reached 201,151 units, up 24% YoY
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 24% YoY growth during 11MFY16. Continued growth can be attributed to auto financing due to decade low interest rates, taxi scheme, improving law & order situation and overall improvement in country’s economic situation. During 11MFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 201,151 units against 162,151 units during same period last year.
PSMC: Taxi scheme complete
Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki’s (PSMC) sales increased 33% YoY to 118,629 units in 11MFY16 mainly led by Punjab Govt.’s Taxi Scheme.
Volumes remained flat MoM while they declined 22% YoY in May 2016 to 9,001 units due to completion of taxi scheme.
INDU: Toyota Corolla going strong
Indus Motors (INDU) sold 58,531 units in 11MFY16 versus 51,485 units last year. Sales marginally improved in May 2016, up 1% YoY, coming in at 5,544 units.
It is important to note that delivery time for new corolla model continues and varies depending on the variant.
HCAR: New model of Civic to hit earlier than expected
Honda Cars (HCAR) sold 23,800 units in 11MFY16 compared to 21,134 units in the same period last year. Sales improved 7% YoY to 2,507 in May 2016, but declined 9% MoM.
We believe that Honda City is the main contributor to HCAR’s sales growth and volumes of Honda Civic are expected to dry out now. Buyers are likely to prefer the new model of Civic (10th generation). Pre-booking for the same has already begun and the company is expected to launch the model in the next few months or so, as per our channel checks.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy impacted sales
Pakistan tractor segment posted a decline of 28% YoY during 11MFY16 to reach 30,607 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy scheme of 25,000/29,000 tractors, which was announced by Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16.
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their sales volumes during 11MFY16 as farmers held off purchases in anticipation of the said subsidy.
MTL sold 18,208 units in 11MFY16 compared to 26,155 units in the same period last year. Sales of the company fell 18% YoY (4% MoM) to 2,234 units in May 2016.
In the same period, AGTL witnessed a decline of 26% YoY in sales to 11,653 units. Company sold 1,771 units in May 2016, up 14% YoY (down 8% MoM).
We believe farmers have resumed regular purchases due to uncertainty in subsidy scheme. This year’s budget is full of incentives to the agriculture sector, including reduction in urea prices and financing rates. This should help improve liquidity with farmers resulting in better offtake of tractors going forward, we believe.
Trucks & Buses segment of Pakistan automobile sector has posted an increase of 42% YoY to reach at 5,815 units in 11MFY16. We attribute this surge in demand to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and improving law & order situation in the country.

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Offline ally

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #651 on: June 19, 2016, 11:56:06 AM »
http://www.dawn.com/news/1265768/tractor-prices-to-drop-by-up-to-rs80000-after-cut-in-sales-tax

Tractor prices to decrease from end of June or early July'16.

Yen appreciation remains a big worry for car assemblers.

Offline SBM

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #652 on: June 24, 2016, 08:09:37 AM »
I hate waking up.

Offline Alpha

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #653 on: June 24, 2016, 08:20:36 PM »

Offline Atif1

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #654 on: June 25, 2016, 12:05:23 AM »
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy

floor timee

& also time to buy!

Well I don't think it's buy time in autos, yen is around 30 month high around 102, with 3.7% gaining only today, so rising yen will b a big worry for auto assemblers so better wait and see.
Only dead fish goes with the flow.

Offline momo

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #655 on: June 25, 2016, 10:38:40 AM »
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy

floor timee

& also time to buy!

Well I don't think it's buy time in autos, yen is around 30 month high around 102, with 3.7% gaining only today, so rising yen will b a big worry for auto assemblers so better wait and see.

It won't stay strong for too long and will depreciate soon. The Japanese can't afford to let it stay strong.

Offline Atif1

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #656 on: June 29, 2016, 06:39:30 PM »
Positives for HCAR and INDU

Punjab government imposed one-time tax on imported vehicles above 1300cc engine capacity in its FY17 budget announcement.
Only dead fish goes with the flow.

Offline SBM

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #657 on: June 30, 2016, 12:40:27 AM »
Positives for HCAR and INDU

Punjab government imposed one-time tax on imported vehicles above 1300cc engine capacity in its FY17 budget announcement.

arent majority of the cars imported below 1300cc ?
hmm
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Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #658 on: June 30, 2016, 04:58:18 PM »
AKD Daily
 
Autos: When tyre meets road
Launch of new models are expected to add to the strong offtake witnessed in the Auto space, coupled by depressed commodity prices (particularly spending on fuel and tapered cost of borrowing) have been catalysts for the Auto space (4-yr consolidated total sales growth CAGR of 5.94%). The next leg of incremental growth is expected to be built on: 1) passing-on of increased costs, either a factor of Yen appreciation (14.8% CYTD, averaging ~115 and ~108 for 3Q and 4QFY16) or raised input prices (CRC sheet steel prices up ~37%CYTD) and, 2) lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure spend, having propelled cumulative demand growth in the light commercial vehicles and Pick Up segments to the highest amongst all segments (32.3%YoY increase for 11MFY16). While news of the 10th Generation Civic model launch caught many by surprise, the stock has since responded (pop of 23.7% during June'16) to the anticipated revival in demand for an endearing premium brand. An analysis of trailing P/E between HCAR and its nearest competitor in the listed space INDU, over a comparable period (CY12 onwards), shows the relative premium HCAR enjoys. Bouts of price performance for both scrips are triggered by supernormal growth stages coinciding with the launch of new models, variations in liquidity and operational performance. In this fluid backdrop, with numerous developments, we retain our liking for INDU, where the industry stalwart is set to retain stability, trading at an inexpensive FY16E/17F P/E of 7.6x/8.9x with an accompanying FY17F D/Y of 8.7%.
Yen exposure may prove painful: 14.8/16.5% CYTD/FYTD appreciation in the JpY vs. US$ underscores the impact sharp yen movements have on Auto sector profits. Despite the initiation of negative interest rate regime in Japan, strength in the Yen vs. US$ is driven by: 1) continued flight to safety as global risk sentiment is raised, 2) weakness in the US$ (dollar index declined 2.8%CYTD) are borne out of expectations that pervasive global risks may keep rates low, and 3) increasing divergence in global rates as disparity between global economic growth continued to widen.
New car re-rating: HCAR, on a trailing PE multiple, has traded at an average premium of 23% vs. INDU during the last three years (2013-2016). Digging deeper, this premium narrowed during Aug'14-Sep'15 coinciding with the launch of the 11th generation Corolla in Jul'14. In this regard, combining sales figures with average monthly trailing P/E for HCAR and INDU shows that a re-rating for INDU took place during the time where sales growth during the period was 3.5x (from 1,106 units in July'14 to 4,984 in Sept'15) depicting a super-growth phase characterized by the 'new model effect'. Concurrently, HCAR's sales grew from 1,505 units in July'14 to 2,001 units in Sept'15 amounting to growth of 33% only. The premium between the two started to widen once again from Oct'15 as higher sales growth for HCAR due to fleet demand (e.g. a new taxi service launched preferring Honda City) and expectations of an impending launch of the 10th generation Civic. Introduction of new models, followed by critical reception and increased off-take during the following super normal period can be considered to move P/E premiums/discounts between these two competitors.
Outlook: Incremental growth is expected to be built on: 1) passing-on of increased costs, either a factor of Yen appreciation (14.8% CYTD, averaging ~115 and ~108 for 3Q and 4QFY16) or raised input prices (CRC sheet steel prices up ~37%CYTD) and, 2) lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure spend, having propelled cumulative demand growth in the light commercial vehicles and Pick Up segments to the highest amongst all segments (32.3%YoY increase for 11MFY16). Additionally developing sales dynamic (dealer networks, after sales service centers), accompanied by strong indications of increased demand in the form of fleet sales are expected to solidify demand growth. Model launches on the horizon may include PSMC, and its plans to unveil either Ertiga or Celerio (1000CC variants) to replace the Cultus by 1QCY17, where the OEM has made a new model launch contingent on favorable terms in the ADP-II. As terms conducive to CAPEX by incumbent OEMs remained absent from the approved policy, PSMC's stance remains unresolved. Introduction of new models in the 1000CC segment will further revenues (new model effect remains strong) as the current model (Cultus) reaches stagnation in growth.
Investment Perspective: In the backdrop of current market segmentation (1000CC dominated by PSMC, while INDU has 67% overall market share) and product offerings, we favor INDU because: 1) superior pricing power, where the Toyota brand commands significant recognition and value compared to Suzuki, 2) better channels, after sales service network, dealership networks for insuring quality control raising the consumer's willingness to pay while attracting fleet sales and, 3) line-up of variants which may be introduced, faring better than new entrants, evident in the strong demand for Toyota's Belta and Vitz variants in the import market. In this fluid backdrop, with numerous developments, we retain our liking for INDU, where the industry stalwart is set to retain stability, trading at an inexpensive FY16E/17F P/E of 7.6x/8.9x with an accompanying FY17F D/Y of 8.7%.