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Offline aharoon

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #879 on: June 13, 2018, 11:09:16 PM »
Renault ' KIA ' Nissan aur kuch pata nahin about dewan.. Chinese maal alag..
Itnay competition main INDU PSMC HCAR waghaira Kay margins bohat limited reh jain gay..
Yeh baat bhi notice plz

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #879 on: June 13, 2018, 11:09:16 PM »

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #880 on: June 14, 2018, 11:51:10 AM »
New entrants investing ~US$820mn
We shed light on auto companies that are entering the local market, their potential
investment size, capacities and the various segments that they are expected to
target during the initial years of entry. To recall, with the introduction of the new
Auto Policy (ADP 16-21) – which provides duty and other incentives to new
entrants over existing assemblers – there has been a flurry of companies that have
pledged investment in the local auto sector to grab a potential chunk of the
booming auto market.
These include the likes of Kia Motors from South Korea in collaboration with the
Lucky Group (Kia-Lucky Motors) and Hyundai Motors from South Korea with Nishat
Group (Hyundai Nishat Motors). As can be seen from the table, the potential
investments coming from the new entrants are estimated around US$820mn
(including US$110mn pending cases). Eight companies have been granted
Greenfield status so far under the Auto Policy, while two companies have received
Brownfield status and some cases are pending for approval. Renault, as per media
reports is expected to enter the market in collaboration with Al Futtaim Motors has
not yet completed the application process as per our channel checks, and is
therefore not included in this analysis.

Tough times ahead for existing assemblers
Total additional capacity from new entrants is estimated at 192,000 units, the bulk
of which is expected to directly target the market dominated by existing players
such as Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC), Indus Motor Company (INDU) and Honda
Atlas Cars (HCAR). The total automotive capacity (Passenger Cars, LCVs, SUVs)
of the country is expected to increase from existing ~280k units (including INDU’s
10k units CAPEX and FAW) to ~465k units within the next 2-3 years, which may
limit the breathing space for existing OEMs. We believe that existing OEMs can
likely employ a strategy of product diversification in order for them to protect their
market share.
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Offline rameez1

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #881 on: June 15, 2018, 01:37:52 AM »
I think Indus and HCAR will still be able to retain their market share due to no direct competition in their category of vehicles. PSMC will take the biggest hit as there is direct competition in 1000CC cars with the new entrants.

Offline dr.muhammad zia

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I'm friends with the monster that's under my bed
Get along with the voices inside of my head
You're trying to save me, stop holding your breath
And you think I'm crazy, yeah, you think I'm crazy,WELL THATS NOT FAIR

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #883 on: July 06, 2018, 01:06:10 PM »
Autos: Jun-2018 volumes to grow 20% YoY, headwinds to limit future growth
July 06, 2018 (JS Research)

We preview auto sales for the month of Jun-2018, where we expect volumes to grow by 20% YoY.
Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) volumes are expected to grow by 27% YoY, followed by 26% YoY and 15% YoY for Indus Motor Company (INDU) and Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC), respectively, owing to lesser Ramadan days coinciding with Jun-2018 compared to Jun-2017.
For tractors, Millat Tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) are anticipated to record sequential declines of 45% MoM and 40% MoM, respectively owing to completion of current Kharif sowing season.
FY18 auto volumes are expected to clock in at a record high of 258,654 units, up 21% YoY, however sector (new entrants, budget restriction on non-filers) and macro (rising interest rates and CPI) headwinds are expected to keep volumes of the Big Three in check going forward.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #884 on: July 12, 2018, 11:50:50 AM »
 FY18 closed on a strong note, regulatory challenge ahead!

As per the latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), sales for total passenger cars and LCVs in Jun’18 clocked-in at 18k units, down 15% MoM but up 20% YoY. 

Cumulatively, total sales in FY18 increased by 21% YoY, achieving highest ever sales of 258k units on the back of strong demand dynamics and new model attraction (Honda’s BR-V, PSMC’s Cultus, INDU’s Hilux Revo & Fortuner).

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) remained the top performer followed by Pak Suzuki (PSMC) depicting growth of 31% and 26% YoY, respectively in FY18. Whereas, INDU grew by 5% YoY due to capacity bottlenecks which are expected to resolve in ongoing quarter.

Tractors’ sales too closed the year on a strong note, growing 29% YoY, taking FY18 sales to highest ever number of 71k units (a high seen after eight years-  sales stood at 70.6k units in FY10). The growth is reflective of pro-agri policies and improving farm-economics. AGTL remained top performer during FY18 with sales up by 40% YoY.

Trucks and buses trend normalized during Jun’18 with a decline of 17% MoM. On cumulative basis, sales elevated by 15% YoY in FY18 on the back of strong demand from CPEC related activity.

Going forward, we highlight that recent budgetary measure prohibiting non-filers from purchasing new vehicle may keep auto sales in-check in FY19, where we project 1QFY19 sales to decline by 8%.

We maintain our liking for Indus Motors Limited (INDU) underpinned by strong balance sheet, superior margins and highest D/Y of 8% among the peers with a TP of PKR1,798/sh.

bma
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Offline ZafarAAA

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #885 on: July 17, 2018, 11:56:09 AM »
Expression ki waja say Cement sector ka hal dekh kar auto sector nay kuch zada hi tension lay li hy

Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #886 on: July 27, 2018, 07:10:20 PM »
Elixir Insight


Automobile Assemblers
INDU & HCAR Result Previews

·         We expect INDU’s 4QFY18 EPS to clock in at PKR46.4, taking FY18E earnings to PKR194/share. We also project the company to declare final cash dividend of PKR45/share taking full year dividend to PKR 140/share.

·         We project HCAR’s 1QMY19 EPS to stand at PKR7.73 (down 47%YoY/20%QoQ) as we expect rising steel prices and PKR depreciation to curtail gross margin to 8% (down 6pptsYoY/2pptsQoQ).

·         We also update our investment case considering ongoing volatility in PKR/USD and incorporate higher risk free rate at 10% (from 8.5% earlier). Our rolled-forward Jun-19 PT’s for INDU and HCAR now stand at PKR1,700 and PKR430.

·         Despite potential upsides, we maintain Underweight stance on the sector as we eye headwinds from 1) potential economic slowdown, 2) margin attrition due to PKR depreciation and 3) loss in market share due to new entrants.

INDU – Super Tax to Suppress 4QFY18 Earnings:  We project Indus Motors Company Limited (INDU) to report 4QFY18 EPS of PKR46.4, up 32%YoY but down 15% sequentially. To a great extent, the QoQ EPS decline can be attributed to likely booking of Super Tax during the quarter (3% of FY18 PBT).

During 4QFY18, PKR depreciated by 5% against USD and 4% against Japanese Yen. To absorb the impact of devaluation, the company raised prices of Corolla, Hilux and Fortuner by 3-5%. Offtakes also improved by 2%QoQ to 16,641 units during the quarter. The surge in offtakes can be accredited to increased demand for Fortuner (up 31%QoQ) due to Election’s seasonality impact.

Coming to the topline, we expect the company to report revenue of PKR37.6bn (up 35%YoY/2%QoQ) in 4QFY18 due to rise in prices along with volumetric growth. In terms of Cost of Sales, we anticipate a 33%YoY and 2%QoQ increase to PKR31.0bn on the back of PKR depreciation and surge in Steel prices. Resultantly, we project gross margins of the company at 18% (up 1pptYoY) during 4QFY18.

For FY18, INDU’s sales clocked in at 63,068 units (up 5%YoY). As a result of price hikes and volumetric growth, we expect the topline of the company to grow by 23% (to PKR137.8bn) during the year and project the company’s FY18 EPS to clock in at PKR194/share which marks a growth of 18%YoY despite slowdown in Corolla’s sales (down 2%YoY) due to a tilt in company’s strategy towards SUV segment (Fortuner’s sales in FY18 stood at 4,186 units - up 2xYoY). The effective corporate tax rate is expected to clock in at 33% during the year (inclusive of 3% super tax likely to be booked in the outgoing quarter).

We also expect INDU to announce a final dividend of PKR45/share taking full year dividend to PKR140/share which translates into payout ratio of 72%, in-line with its historic trend.

HCAR - PKR/USD depreciation to dent GM’s: The Board of Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Limited (HCAR) is meeting on July 28, 2018 to approve 1QMY19 financial results (likely to be announced on July 30, 2018). We project the company to report 1QMY19 EPS of PKR7.73, down 47%YoY and 20% sequentially. The decline in profitability is projected on account of 1) gross margin deterioration and 2) imposition of super tax. In-line with its historical trend, we do not expect the company to declare any cash dividend during the quarter.

The outgoing quarter recorded a depreciation of 11%YoY/5%QoQ in average PKR against USD and 13%YoY/4%QoQ against Japanese Yen. To incorporate the Forex swing, the company raised prices of City/Civic/BR-V by 5%/3%/1% in Apr-18. Yet we project HCAR’s gross margin to dip to 8% in 1QMY19 (down 6pptsYoY / 2pptsQoQ).

In our projections, we have assumed a Super Tax of 2% on HCAR’s 1QMY19 PBT, due to its recurring nature under Finance Act 2018-19. However in line with its historical trend, the company is likely to book Super Tax of 3% on MY18 PBT in 2QMY19 (in case the tax on MY18 is booked in 1QMY19, our EPS projection will be shaved off by ~26% to PKR5.74/share).

Revising Estimates and PT’s - Maintain Underweight: We have updated our investment case with revisions in exchange rate forecast (average PKR/USD at 132 in FY19) and higher risk free rate of 10% (from earlier 8.5%). This takes our rolled-forward INDU’s Jun-19 PT to PKR1700/share. Similarly, we slash down HCAR’s Jun-19 PT to PKR430/share (from earlier PKR480/share). While both the stocks offer upsides, we maintain Underweight stance on the sector as we eye headwinds from 1) potential economic slowdown, 2) margin attrition due to PKR depreciation and 3) loss in market share due to new entrants.


Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #887 on: August 03, 2018, 12:05:47 PM »
Auto sales growth solid in Jul-2018 at 9% YoY; downside risks persist for FY19
August 03, 2018 (JS Research)

We preview auto sales for the month of Jul-2018, where we expect volumes to grow by 9% YoY.
We expect volumes to remain strong during first two months of FY19, as OEMs moved up deliveries to non-filers before the June 30, 2018 deadline and hence deliveries to filers were delayed and are expected to reflect in coming two months at least.
Our view of slowdown in volumes for FY19 remains intact, where the impact of ban on non-filers is expected to weigh down auto sector demand.
Indus Motor Company (INDU) is expected to lead volumes with 18% YoY growth where election year factor could play a role in volumes. Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) volumes are expected to grow by 10% YoY, while Pak Suzuki Motor (PSMC) unit sales could edge up by 4% YoY
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #888 on: August 13, 2018, 12:32:17 PM »
Passenger Car Sales Grow by 21%MoM Due to Low-Base Effect

·         Passenger cars have shown a robust growth of 21%MoM during Jul-18 to 18,875 units due to low-base effect. On YoY basis, sales improved by 16%. The numbers are in-line with our estimates.

·         Amongst the assemblers, HCAR showed strongest growth during the month (up 37%MoM) led by Civic and City sales (up 57%MoM). INDU registered growth of 20%MoM mainly due to sharp growth in Corolla (up 29%MoM), while PSMC posted a moderate growth of 5%MoM led by Swift and Cultus performance (up 38%MoM and 22%MoM, respectively).

·         During the year, Tractors and Pickups sales declined by 16%YoY and 18%YoY, respectively while Jeeps recorded a sales drop of 38%YoY as Election led demand came to its completion.

·         We maintain Underweight stance on the sector on the back of weakness in PKR, expected slowdown in demand, interest rate liftoff, restriction of vehicle purchase by non-filers, and upcoming entry of new players.

Low-Base Effect Drove MoM Sales Growth for Passenger Cars: As per the latest Automobile Sales numbers released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Passenger Car sales grew by 16%YoY to 18,875 units, in-line with our estimates. Coming to month wise data, sales jumped by 21%MoM owing to low base due to limited production hours in Ramadan and Eid holidays.

(Please refer to the enclosed table for detailed sales numbers)

HCAR’s 37%MoM Growth Led by Civic & City: Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) witnessed highest growth of 37%MoM amongst its peers and sold 4,981 units during the month. The growth mainly stemmed from Civic and City (4,609 units, up 57%MoM) whereas BR-V sales posted a decline of 46%MoM to 372 units. Reason for the growth can be linked with capacity enhancement. On YoY basis, HCAR posted a 10% growth on the back of 21%YoY jump in Civic and City sales.

Meanwhile Automobile sales for Indus Motors Company (INDU) also showed a growth of 20%MoM to 5,468 units. The jump came on the back of sharp growth in Corolla’s sales (up 29%MoM). On the other hand, Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) exhibited a growth of 5%MoM to 10,895 units due to growth in Swift and Cultus (up 38% and 22% MoM, respectively). The growth in offtakes can be attributed to low base effect due to limited production hours in Ramadan and Eid Holidays in June. On YoY basis, INDU and PSMC posted growths of 18% and 4%, respectively.

Jeeps exhibited 46%MoM Decline: During the month, Jeeps’ sales clocked in at 592 units (down 46%MoM) as Fortuner and BR-V posted a decline of 47%MoM and 46%MoM, respectively. Both incumbents also exhibited 19%YoY and 46%YoY decline too. Reason for the decline in Fortuner sales can be attributed to completion of election-year led demand cycle and decline for BR-V sales can be linked with consumer’s fading excitement after initial euphoria.

l-18 Sales Weak for Tractors and Pickups: Tractors’ sales decreased by 16%YoY to 3,872 units in Jul-18. Within this segment, Al-Ghazi Tractors’ (AGTL) sales declined by 46%YoY while Millat Tractor (MTL) exhibited a decline of 3%YoY. Reason for the decline can be linked to election year happenings taking farmers’ focus away from core agrarian activities.

Pick-ups sales declined by 18%YoY in Jul-18, but improved 6%MoM on the back of 16%MoM increase in Hilux sales.

Maintain Underweight: We maintain our skepticism on the sector as incumbent assemblers are bound to witness margin attrition, loss in pricing power and market share decline amidst a flurry of upcoming new players, interest rate hikes and ongoing PKR depreciation. Hence we maintain Underweight stance on the sector.
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Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #889 on: September 05, 2018, 05:40:25 PM »
Elixir Insight

Automobile Assemblers
Offtakes Likely to Decline 17% MoM / 19% YoY

·         During Aug-18, sales of Passenger Cars are expected to clock in at 17,800 units (down 17%MoM/19%YoY) on the back of high base-effect of last month (likely attributable to pent-up demand by Tax Filers), limited production due to Eid holidays and price hikes. This will take 8M2018 offtakes to 174k units (up 10%YoY).

·         Amongst the assemblers, HCAR is expected to take the biggest hit on MoM basis (to 3,900 units) while PSMC’s provisional sales number of 8,900 units would show the largest decline of 25% on YoY basis.

·         During Aug-18, Tractors’ sales are expected to have stood at 4,050 units (up 6%MoM, down 21%YoY), with sales for MTL and AGTL expected to stand at 3,000 and 1,050 units, respectively.

·         We maintain Underweight stance on the sector on the back of weakness in PKR, expected slowdown in demand, interest rate liftoff, restriction of vehicle purchase by non-filers and upcoming entry of new players.

Passenger Car Sales Expected to be Down 17%MoM during Aug-18: As per our channel checks, sales of Passenger Cars during Aug-18 are expected to clock in at 17,800 units (down 17%MoM/19%YoY) on the back of high base-effect of last month likely attributable to pent-up demand by Tax-filers, limited production due to Eid holidays and price hikes. This will take 8M2018 offtakes to 174k units (up 10%YoY). Though the cumulative calendar year to date (CYTD) number still shows a double digit growth, the rise in prices, interest rate liftoff and ban on Non-Tax filers will likely play its part in denting demand in the coming months. This can be validated from 5ppt MoM decline in cumulative offtakes (7MCY18 offtakes were up 15%YoY) as well.

Recall that as per Federal Budget FY19, non-tax filers have been restricted to purchase any vehicle (new locally assembled or freshly imported) from Jul-18 onwards. To cater to this limitation, we understand that automobile assemblers prioritized deliveries to non-filers during May and June, which created pent up demand from filers. This order backlog was furnished during Jul-18, allowing the Assemblers to post healthy offtakes in the first month of the fiscal year, despite the ban on non-filers.

(Please refer to the enclosed table for detailed sales numbers)

HCAR Likely to Take the Highest MoM Hit: Amongst the assemblers, Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) is expected to show the highest decline in offtakes of 22%MoM to 3,900 units. The decline can be attributed to high base effect of last month and limited production hours due to religious festive holidays. This would take the company’s offtakes for 8M2018 to 35,595 units (up 12%YoY).

Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) is expected to show a decline of 18%MoM/25%YoY during Aug-18. The decline is expected to come on the back of rising prices (affecting PSMC sales the most as its consumer is highly price sensitive).

Meanwhile Automobile sales for Indus Motors Company (INDU) are expected to show a decline of 9%MoM/10%YoY to 5,000 units. The company has fared better than its peers as its enhanced capacity allowed it to reduce delivery days and clear some backlog.

AGTL expected to show 29%MoM Jump in Aug-18 offtakes: During Aug-18, Tractors’ sales are expected to have stood at 4,050 units (+6%MoM, -21%YoY), with sales for Millat Tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) expected to stand at 3,000 and 1,050 units, respectively.

Maintain Underweight on Automobile Assemblers: We maintain our skepticism on the sector as incumbent assemblers are bound to witness margin attrition, loss in pricing power and market share decline amidst a flurry of upcoming new players, interest rate hikes and ongoing PKR depreciation.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #890 on: October 11, 2018, 12:31:46 PM »
Pakistan Automobile: Sep'18 sales jump 10% MoM as low-base comes into play
 
As per the latest sales data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), the sales for auto sector depicted a growth of 10%/3% on MoM/YoY in Sep'18, attributable to lower base.

On a cumulative basis industry sales declined by 4% YoY mainly led by PSMC where volume declined by 10%. However, HCAR and INDU managed to beat the industry with a growth of 7% and 2%, respectively. 
   
Pressure on cost side persist as PKR depreciated by another 7% during the month where we project average price increase in the range of 4-5% to sustain the margins in near term.
   
Having said that, we relatively view HCAR and INDU in a better position to pass on the impact. PSMC may see a challenging environment considering price sensitive nature of its product along with discontinuation of its Mehran variant.

Post steep market underperformance of 14/25% in 1-mth/6-mth, valuations have opened up. We maintain our liking for INDU with a TP of 1,793 backed by decent DY of 9.3%.We believe that risk of further devaluation may remain a source of concern leading to risk to price discovery.   
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Offline Irfan

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #891 on: October 19, 2018, 09:09:17 AM »
Chinese automaker Changan launches vehicles in Pakistan


In a joint venture with Pakistan’s Master Motors Limited, Chinese automobile manufacturer Changan Motors has officially launched a range of light commercial vehicles in Pakistan.

As per local media reports, the Chinese auto giant has put Changan M9 on display at their first authorised dealership situated in Lahore, with an Ex-Factory price tag of Rs919,000. The 9×5 foot 1-ton pick-up comes with C10 gasoline engine having 1000 cc16-valve Dual Overhead Cam (DOHC).

Other vehicles on display included Changan Karvaan, a midsized seven-seat passenger van, which also carries class-leading C10 1000cc engine, with an ex-factory price tag of Rs999,000.

It was reported earlier in September that Master Motors will launch two pickups M8 and M9 and an MPV Karvaan. Meanwhile, the SUV will hit the Pakistani roads in 2020. The MPV Karvaan, M8 and M9 were expected to cost Rs 1,000,000, Rs 850,000 and Rs 900,000, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian automaker Proton will also be bringing its vehicles in Pakistan. Proton Holding signed an agreement with Pakistan’s Al Haj Automotive Private Limited, to produce and assemble its electric and eco-friendly cars in Pakistan.

https://www.brecorder.com/2018/10/18/446545/chinese-automaker-changan-launches-vehicles-in-pakistan/

Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #892 on: November 13, 2018, 12:06:14 PM »
AKD Daily

Pakistan Auto: Oct'18 sales are a much-needed lift

•         Total automotive industry sales grew +28%MoM/+6%YoY during Oct'18, amounting to 25,508 units, taking cumulative 10MCY18 sales to 225,742 units (+9%YoY), where constituents of total industry sales moved +10%/-11%/-10%/+0%/+9%MoM for Passenger Cars/LCVs/Trucks/Buses/Tractors, where
passenger car sales neared a high-watermark of 21,342 units (21,540 units were sold in May'18) owing to a significant strength witnessed in the 800-1000CC segment (+40%MoM).

•         Cumulative 10MCY18 sales-growth of 9%YoY was an offshoot of Passenger Car/LCVs/Trucks growing 9%/8%/3%YoY, standing in contrast to 4MFY19 sales of +4%/-23%/-1%YoY, confirming our sanguine outlook for passenger car sales, despite dampeners emerging for total industry demand outlook (non-filer ban, rising cost pressures, inflation and oil price spike).

•         Additionally, for the outgoing month PSMC/INDU/HCAR exceeded nameplate monthly capacities operating at 107/154/120% of monthly double-shift capacity taking 10MCY17 utilization levels to 94%/131%/108% vs. 86/124/95% for SPLY.

•         Notification of limited cost pass-on of some OEM variants indicate their capacity to absorb cost escalations (PkR slipped 6.6% during Oct'18), in a bid to encourage off-season buyers. Despite softer margin outlook over the near term, INDU remains our top pick in the space, offering a strong value proposition (FY19 D/Y & P/B of  8.9% and 2.5x), and an unmatched brand premium difficult to replicate for new entrants.

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Offline MZ

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #893 on: November 19, 2018, 08:56:07 PM »
AUTOMOBILE ASSEMBLER: INCREASED COMPETITION = INCREASED CAPEX

Monday, 19 November 2018

BY: AKD SECURITIES LIMITED

An analysis of updated financial accounts for auto OEMs reveals a clear upswing in industry CAPEX with the last twelve month total outlay reaching PkR7.6bn with PSMC/INDU/ HCAR contributing 46/38/16%.
Looking at CAPEX outlays for the three major OEMS, we find that INDU and HCAR maintain higher investment levels per model sold (reflected in frequent model launches, better features), while PSMC has recently caught up, with CY18 CAPEX/unit hitting levels seen in HCAR (PkR28.4k/unit).
On the other hand, CAPEX is reflected in poor free cash flows, where a historic analysis of cash flows show that variations in net working capital (movement of current assets and liabilities) are a greater threat, where pressures from the same forced PSMC to acquire ST borrowing to fill the gap.
We believe the wheels are in motion for introduction of a new variant (most likely the Alto) to replace the Mehran, with investment in Techno Glass (subsidiary to manufacture windshields) offering additional catalysts. Our Dec'19 TP of PkR313/sh (risk free rate/risk premium of 13/6%) offers a total return of 28% to last close, while the stock trades at a relatively inexpensive CY19 P/E of 5.1x.

Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #894 on: December 06, 2018, 01:01:35 PM »
Offtakes for Nov-18 to Mark the Long Awaited Slowdown

·         As per our channel checks, sales of Passenger Cars during Nov-18 are expected to clock in at 18,279 units (down 26%MoM/13%YoY).

·         We attribute this decline to 1) slowdown in economy, 2) interest rate lift off making car financing expensive, 3) high car prices on the back of PKR depreciation and 4) ban on purchase of vehicle for non-filers. One additional reason for MoM decline can be high base last month (which we had already highlighted as a one-off event in our earlier note). 

·         During 5MFY19, total sales for passenger cars are expected to clock in at 101,480 units (down 3%YoY).

·         Amongst the assemblers, Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) is expected to post offtakes of 3,800 units for the month (down 24%MoM and 15%YoY), in line with the weak dynamics in the overall sector. During 8MMY19, HCAR’s sales are projected at 34,740 units, up 6.5%YoY (note: HCAR Financial Year ends in March).

·         With expected sales of 5,480 units in Nov-18, Indus Motors (INDU) is projected to uphold a positive growth of 2%YoY and 7%YoY during Nov-18 and 5MFY19, respectively. The positive growth can be linked with enhanced capacity (debottlenecking) and changing sales mix of the company (converging back towards Corolla vs. high end products). As per Oct-18 actuals, sales of Toyota Corolla had improved by 11%YoY to 18,814 units while Toyota Fortuner’s sales had shown an opposite trend of -23%YoY during 4MFY19.

·         On MoM basis, INDU is likely to follow the track of its peers as we expect its offtakes to decline by 14% due to overall slowdown in economy and high base effect. It is worthy to note that despite a one-off jump of 30%MoM during Oct-18, the decline in INDU’s sales is still much lower when compared to the rest of the industry.

·         Sales for Pak Suzuki (PSMC) are expected to clock in at 9,000 units for Nov-18, marking declines of 33%MoM and 20%YoY – however the actual numbers (to be released by PAMA later next week) may show some variation against our estimates for the company.

·         We reiterate our Underweight stance on the sector due to changing macroeconomics and upcoming competition.
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Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #895 on: December 12, 2018, 11:37:41 AM »
Automobile sales continue to decline in Nov'18

As per the latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Associaton (PAMA), total passenger car and LCV sales for Nov’18 clocked-in at 17,442 units, recording a decline of 30%/17% MoM/YoY. The MoM decline was expected on account of year end effect along with regualtory changes playing its part.

Cumulatively, car sales  in 5MFY18 decreased by 4% YoY to 101k units, led by weak demand dynamics primarily in 800-1000cc segment post steep price increase of 9% since Jan'18.

INDU remained the top performer followed by HCAR depicting growth of 7% and 2%, respectively, in 5MFY18. Whereas, PSMC registered decline of 11% due to price elastic demand of 800-1000cc variants and effect of regulatory changes for the sector.

On standalone basis, demand for Corolla variant looks stable comparitively to other varinats in 1300-1800cc segment. In small to mid-sized segment, Cultus and WagonR continue to do well on the back of demand from fleet requirment of ride hailing app such as Careem and Uber. On the other hand, sales of BR-V continued to deteriorate by 43%/76% on MoM/YoY.     

Tractors sales remained weak during the month where volumes delined 33% YoY, registering cumulative decline of 13% YoY in 5MFY18 on the back of weak construction activity. MTL continue to outperform on cumulative basis with sales down by 4% as compare to 13% decline in industry.

Trucks and buses sales trend continue to normalise with sales depicting a decline of 3/5% MoM/YoY. On cumulative basis, sales dipped by 14% in 5MFY18 on the back slowdown in economic activity.  INDU remains our top pick in the sector.
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Online Farhan Kermani

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #896 on: December 12, 2018, 12:26:19 PM »
under perform
under perform
under perform
under perform .

Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #897 on: December 12, 2018, 02:13:40 PM »

AKD Daily

Pakistan Autos: Down cycle appears imminent

•         Nov'18 total industry sales stood at 18,080 units (-29%MoM/-17%YoY) comprised of Passenger Cars sales of 15,334 units (-28%MoM/-11%YoY), LCV/Pickup offtake of 2,108 units (-40%MoM/-45%YoY) and new Tractor purchases of 3,750 (-41%MoM/-33%YoY), marking a period of continued weakness.

•         Monthly sales declines in PC and LCV segments were particularly pronounced due to the 'artificial high-base' created by premium OEMs limiting their cost pass-through (particularly PkR devaluation) for deliveries made in Oct'18.

•         Cumulative 11MCY18/5MFY19 passenger car sales stood at 201,251/87,897 (+7.5/+1%YoY), while LCVs sales stood at 33,886/2,294 (+1.7/-18.2%YoY), with major listed OEMs exhibiting muted sales growth.

•         26.3% decline in the Automobile Assemblers index FYTD marks deteriorating sentiment for the space, where recent datasets endorse our assertion of relative resilience in sales for 1300CC+ segment players at this late stage in the demand cycle. We retain our liking for INDU, where recent price weakness bolster defensive credentials. 
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Online Farhan Kermani

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #898 on: January 10, 2019, 06:56:30 PM »
devastating numbers
tractors plummet unbelievably
trucks cars everything.
get out of this sector asap