Author Topic: Auto Sector  (Read 177260 times)

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #919 on: July 11, 2019, 09:37:35 PM »
Automobiles: Vehicle sales succumb to deteriorating macros

As per the latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), sales for total passenger cars and LCVs in Jun’19 stood at 17,561 units, down 2% MoM and 5% YoY. 

Cumulatively, total sales of passenger cars and LCVs in FY19 dropped 7% YoY to clock-in at 240,646 units compared to 258,788 units as the year saw multiple upward price revisions, steep rise in interest rates, and host of regulatory measures contributing to the noted decline.

INDU emerged as the industry outperformer registering growth of 4% YoY despite lower sales of Fortuner and Hilux IMV variant. Corolla saved the day with 56,720 units (up 10% YoY) sold for the year. On a MoM basis, INDU saw a 13% rise as Hilux IMV and Corolla sales rebounded sequentially.

On the other hand, PSMC and HCAR saw vehicle sales drop 10% YoY and 14% YoY to 130,002 units and 44,234 units, respectively. For PSMC, largest decline was seen in Mehran due to model phasing out while Wagon-R (up 12% YoY) and Cultus (up 11% YoY) provided some relief. Alto variant sales have commenced with 1,685 units.

HCAR’s BR-V sales (5,045 units) dropped 42% YoY while Civic/City sales (39,189 units) dropped by 8% YoY. Cumulatively, HCAR sold 44,234 units during the period compared to 51,493 units SPLY. On a MoM basis, a large drop of 18% MoM in Civic/City sales to 2,106 units (12M avg. 3,266 units) was observed.

Going forward, we eye auto sector to continue to face headwinds from existing macro environment where FY20 auto sales are expected to stand at ~203k units, a drop of 15% YoY.

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #919 on: July 11, 2019, 09:37:35 PM »

Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #920 on: July 12, 2019, 11:14:43 AM »
AKD Daily

Pakistan Autos: Gravity of a weak economy catches up with auto sales

•   June'19 total automotive industry sales tapered to 16,288 units (-11%MoM/-15%YoY) closing FY19 with total industry sales of 245,724 (-9%YoY).

•   Major constituents of total industry sales for FY19 moved -5%/-37%/-29%YoY for Passenger Cars/Trucks/Tractors while LCVs & Pickups sales slipped (-21%YoY) mostly from rapidly rising prices, adverse regulatory measures enforces by the GoP, amidst falling disposable incomes (hindered by petrol prices, cost of borrowing) effectively deflating consumer durable demand.
 
•   Segment-wise sales composition in the passenger car segment confirm the trend of relative resilience in premium segment sales (1,300CC+ segment sales up 2%YoY), with mid-segment sales showing strong growth (1,000CC sales up 11%YoY, mostly from the new model effect) as the small segment sales slag (800CC sales drop 27%YoY)

•   Bearish sentiment prevailing in the wider market has squeezed auto sector valuations, forcing attractive levels, despite wider questions over organic demand growth, medium term competitive environment (KLM confirming Sportage launch for Sept'18) and pricing power of OEMs following drastic price hikes (~25-40%YoY rise between June'18 vs. June'19).

•   We believe INDU remains a high quality offering, with its blend of demand growth from premium SUV offerings, sturdy margins in sedan segment and cash heavy balance sheet augmenting robust competitive moats, arguably the best placed to weather competitive pressures. Moreover, we have a FCFE based TP of PkR1,465/sh, trading at FY19/20F P/E of 6.8x/6.7x, offering upside of 33% at current levels.

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Offline Farooq Qadir

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #921 on: September 13, 2019, 11:49:21 AM »

Pakistan Autos: Sales are ‘up in smoke’

AKD

•         Aug’19 total automotive industry sales stood at 10,503 units down 20%MoM/43%YoY pulled lower by 17%MoM/41%YoY dip in passenger car (PC) sales to 9,126 units, 33%MoM/53%YoY decline in LCV offtake and 41%MoM/61%YoY fall in Truck sales, concluding five months of consecutive sales decline for the industry where TTM cumulative industry sales depict levels last seen in 2015

•         Segment-wise sales during August show 1,300CC+ segment sales crumbling (down 17%MoM/63%YoY) in the absence of any major model upgrades (atypical for the segment) while relatively nascent offerings by PSMC in the mid (1,000CC sales down 6%MoM/50%YoY) and small segments (800CC & below segment sales down 21%MoM but up 19%YoY) fared relatively better

•         8MCY19 total industry sales amount to 145,133 units (-19.6%YoY) pressured by 17.4%/25.7%/47.2% declines in PC/LCV/Truck sales, with all major OEMs undergoing significant sales compression over the period as consistent price hikes, adverse regulatory measures and strains on durable spend outweigh catalysts int the form of the launch of the Alto and effective curtailment on the used import market

•         Amongst major OEMS PSMC/INDU/HCAR sales for the month fell 21/10/22%MoM and 24/57/67%YoY while 8MCY19 cumulative sales moved lower by 15/14/36%YoY with most brands undergoing double-digit sales declines except PSMC’s Cultus (8MCY19 sales up 3.4%YoY) and INDU’s Corolla (sales slipped 6.8%YoY)

•         With accelerating competition and any bottom in automotive demand too far off to call, we re-iterate our liking for INDU, where news reports confirm the much delayed (at least 2 years by our count) for the Corolla flanker brand (Yaris) with upscale specs, as per channel checks. Incorporating minor bump in sales from the launch (expected deliveries by Jan’19), INDU at current price levels looks attractive on multiples (FY20 P/E of 5.2x).

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Offline Farzooq

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #922 on: September 13, 2019, 12:11:26 PM »
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Offline Aahaf

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #923 on: September 14, 2019, 10:00:05 PM »
Very bad numbers but yeh numbers ki wajah se hi price 85-90% down hui thi so in my view these figures already priced in aik jatka den ge aur public maal nikal de gi phir next qtr ke numbers ke hisab se price adjust hogi before data arrived publicly


Offline DK

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Re: Auto Sector
« Reply #925 on: September 17, 2019, 03:47:51 PM »

sazew and atlas honda bike only these 2 positive rest all -ve.