Author Topic: Power Sector  (Read 48709 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline SBM

  • Master Troll
  • Global Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6233
  • Thanks Received: 99
  • Ouulman :)
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #139 on: January 31, 2013, 04:14:04 PM »
I hate waking up.

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: Power Sector
« Reply #139 on: January 31, 2013, 04:14:04 PM »

Offline Valueestimator

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2092
  • Thanks Received: 46
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #140 on: February 08, 2013, 08:52:15 AM »
Khalid Mustafa
ISLAMABAD: National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), in a bid to cope with the current electric power crisis and get the masses rid of the perpetual increase in power tariff, has fixed the upfront tariff for coal-based power plants that will be installed in future, it is learnt. The upfront tariff will be uniform.
According to a notification, Nepra has fixed the tariff of Rs7.05 per unit for the coal-based power plants that are to be locally financed and Rs8.12 per unit for those which are to be internationally funded.
This development has emerged for the first time in the history. However, the regulator has not determined the tariff for the power plants to be based on Thar coal as it does not know about the quality of Thar coal yet. Nepra will later determine the tariff of power plants to be run on Thar coal when its quality is to be determined.
The notification unveiled that the upfront tariff for imported coal-based power plants will be effective for 30 years. However, the power companies will be able to enforce the uniform tariff for six years and the authority will review the tariff after 6 years.
The uniform tariff will only be extended to those companies which will install the new brand machinery in their power houses. The tariff will be applicable on the projects that have the electricity generation capacity of 600 MW, 400 MW and 200 MW.
The power plants that are to use the imported coal will be exempted of the 2 percent transportation losses. However, the power plants that are to utilise the local coal will be given the relief of exemption of one percent transportation loss.
As per the notification, the capital cost for 200 MW power plant has been fixed at $212.4 million, for 600 MW power house $585 million and for 1000 MW coal based power house the capital cost has been determined at $885 million.
However, the fluctuations in the prices of steel and the electricity related machinery in the plant would be adjusted. The ups and downs in the prices of coal would also be adjusted in the tariff mechanism. After detailed consultation with all stakeholders, the regulator would issue the formal notification to this effect.
 
 
MLCF, FECTC, KTML, FASM, JDMT, REWM, BCML, NMFL, QUICE, OTSU

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18799
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #141 on: February 13, 2013, 11:37:58 AM »
NEPRA notifies Calorific Value (CV) adjustment for IPPs
NEPRA has recently issued notifications to several IPPs pertaining to Calorific Value (CV)
Adjustments for actual furnace oil usage to determine any net amounts accruing either to the
power purchaser (NTDC) or IPPs. As per NEPRA’s initial decision dated July?11, IPPs were
required to maintain a breakup of CV’s for every consignment of FO. However, due to absence
of detailed records, NEPRA has used information from various refineries for the period of Jan?10
to Jun?11 in its decision. As per publicly available information, the decision holds bearings for
Hubco’s Narowal Plant, NCPL & NPL. CV adjustments for Hubco’s base plant and Kapco are
conducted on periodic basis with the fuel supplier (PSO).

Gist of the decision = Excess payments have been made to some IPPs
Without delving much into the mechanics, the bottom line is that if actual CV of FO is higher
than the required benchmark, the FO used was more efficient in generation. NEPRA contends
that the fuel supplied in the period under review carried a higher CV (18,620 BTU/lb on average)
than compensated under the tariff (18,364 BTU/lb). As a result, as per NEPRA, the IPPs have
been over?compensated on the fuel component. Pertinent to highlight however that the issue
under consideration, should not completely eliminate the fuel savings enjoyed by newly
established IPPs and in our view, they should continue to reap benefits from newer equipment.

Nominal risk for 1HFY13 however can influence 2HFY13 earnings
For individual companies, Hubco’s disclosed impact (in table below) is minimal (PRs0.03/sh) and
also does not vary significantly from Hubco’s own estimates of the same. The amounts are
however relatively more concerning for NCPL & NPL (PRs0.66/sh & PRs0.82/sh respectively) and
are significantly higher than the company’s estimates (PRs0.22/sh & PRs0.06/sh respectively).
Our initial discussion with managements indicates that due to the significant variance, these
figures will be contested with NEPRA hence we do not see any risk to 2QFY13 results/payouts.
Also worth highlighting that any amount agreed would be offset against future invoices. For
now, NCPL remains our preferred pick offering FY13E D/Y of 15%, while we remain Neutral on
Hubco (PO: PRs52).

kasb
TOP PICKS
Engro fatima ogdc pol pso dgkc mlcf kapco npl ubl bafl atrl nml

Offline newface

  • Day Traders
  • **
  • Posts: 264
  • Thanks Received: 2
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #142 on: February 13, 2013, 08:00:09 PM »
According to latest NewsOne Channel Ticker news........... Standard Chartered bank and City Bank Declined to open LC of PSO.............. PSO in sever financial crisis................ Loadshedding may enhance for 16 hours

Seniors are requested to look into the matter and comment on this news. I am concerned about my shares in PSO. 

Online Just Another Guy

  • Janta
  • *
  • Posts: 129
  • Thanks Received: 3
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #143 on: February 18, 2013, 02:05:31 PM »
It is surprising that how everyone has conveniently forgotten about the circular debt issue. Even today there is a news of reduced furnace oil supply to IPPs. The problem is only expected to get worse going forward as debt is mounting even on macro level. And the power shares are rising amid all this.

Offline SBM

  • Master Troll
  • Global Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6233
  • Thanks Received: 99
  • Ouulman :)
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #144 on: March 04, 2013, 07:23:57 PM »
It is surprising that how everyone has conveniently forgotten about the circular debt issue. Even today there is a news of reduced furnace oil supply to IPPs. The problem is only expected to get worse going forward as debt is mounting even on macro level. And the power shares are rising amid all this.

borrowings decreased in the preceding quarter ...
I have advocating holding a combination of ipps for a long time now.
Its an easy way of keeping exposure to the high-ish d/y nature of these stocks and reducing risk of zero payout cuz of circular debt etc
I hate waking up.

Offline SBM

  • Master Troll
  • Global Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6233
  • Thanks Received: 99
  • Ouulman :)
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #145 on: March 04, 2013, 07:42:37 PM »
power sector dividends for quarter ending dec

HUBC      +ve surprise
Kapco      -ve
KOHE      neutral
NCPL       +ve
NPL         -ve
PKGP       -ve
I hate waking up.

Offline tariqhafeez

  • Research
  • Strategic Investor
  • *****
  • Posts: 1074
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #146 on: March 05, 2013, 10:32:13 PM »
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-161110-Govt-drags-feet-on-cost-effective-coal-fired-power-projects

Govt drags feet on cost-effective coal-fired power projects
 
 
Mansoor Ahmad
Thursday, February 21, 2013
From Print Edition
 
 
 21  0  3  1

 
LAHORE: The government is yet to give go-ahead to conversion of 12 furnace oil-fired power plants into coal-combusted power plants that could result in net saving of over Rs790 billion per year.
 
The ministry of water and power admitted that 12 steam based thermal plants having power generation capacity of 4347 megawatts could be run on coal in about a year. The total conversion cost would be $1.565 billion and annual saving in fuel cost (which is borne by the government) would be $8.04 billion per year equivalent at current dollar rate to Rs790 billion. This saving could wipe out the total annual subsidy that the government pays to the power sector besides sparing over Rs400 billion per year for further investments.
 
The first proposal in this regard was initiated by a Sheikhupura-based independent power producer (IPP) in November 2011 that sought permission for converting of its furnace based plant to coal, which would reduce fuel cost component by Rs5.5 per unit. Since this plant had adequate area available, it was proposed to install coal-fired boilers at the other side of steam turbine, which would ensure regular supplies from the furnace oil boilers yea round.
 
The power generation would have to be stopped for six months only for connecting coal-run boiler with steam turbine.
 
The proposal suggested that during these six months government continues to pay the capacity payment charges to enable the sponsor to service its past debt. The payment could be recovered by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) after operation of coal converted plant in 12 equal installments. The sponsors will make entire investment for the conversion and share the benefit of fuel cost in a ratio of 40:60, it said. The net saving to Wapda was calculated at Rs5.15 billion per year. The final approval from the government is still awaited.
 
The Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), operating under the ministry of water and power, after receiving this request carried out its analysis on conversion of existing thermal power stations on cheaper fuel.
 
It has identified eight public sector and four IPPs that could be converted from furnace oil to coal based steam generation. Its analysis is based on imported coal.
 
According to the board’s document, power generation thermal units in public sector include 205 MW Jamshoro unit 1, 470 MW Jamshoro units 2,3,4, 300 MW Guddu units 3, 4, 545 MW Muzaffargarh units 1, 2, 3, 320 MW Muzaffargarh unit 4, 420 MW Muzaffargarh units 5, 6 , 132 MW SPS Faisalabad, and 195 MW NGPS Multan units 1, 2, 3. The total available capacity of these steam power generation units comes to 2,325 MW. The total yearly savings from these eight units after conversion to coal would be Rs486.56 billion or $5.72 billion at dollar rate in 2011. Among the independent power producers, the projects that could be converted to coal include 1200 MW Hubco Karachi, 348 MW AES Lalpir, 348 MW Aes Pakgen, and 126 MW SABA Power.
 
The total fuel cost saving from these projects has been estimated by PPIB at Rs196.81 billion per year. The PPIB document further stated that each of these projects if converted into coal based technology would stop power generation for at least a year. It also recommended paying capacity charges to the idle units during the period when they are closed for technology up-gradation so that they could service their past debts.
 
Power sector expert Mohsin Syed said that currently about 4000 MW of thermal power generation capacity remains idle throughout the year. He said the government should shift 2000 MW projects in one-go. “The saving from these projects will be five times higher.”

Offline tariqhafeez

  • Research
  • Strategic Investor
  • *****
  • Posts: 1074
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #147 on: March 05, 2013, 10:35:07 PM »
http://dawn.com/2013/03/04/power-plants-switching-to-coal/

Power plants: switching to coal
From InpaperMagzine | Nasir Jamal | 2 days ago 0

   
The people and the economy are paying a very heavy price for the government’s failure to implement a proposal to convert the existing furnace oil based steam power plants to coal.

A concept paper – Conversion of Existing Thermal Power Stations on Cheaper Fuels – for example, had estimated in 2011 that conversion of 12 steam power plants fired by furnace oil on imported coal could save more than $8 billion or almost four per cent of gross domestic product annually. The savings estimate is based on the prices of furnace oil and coal and exchange rate at that time. The paper was developed by the Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB), and included eight public sector power companies with the total derated generation capacity of 2,325 megawatts and four private producers with derated capacity of 2,022 megawatts. The proposal can be implemented at an estimated cost of less than $1.6 billion.

“The generation proposed to be converted on coal constitutes almost a quarter of the country’s total derated, dependable capacity. It, therefore, can substantially cut the overall electricity production costs, bringing relief to both the domestic and industrial consumers,” argues a senior executive of a gas fired independent power producer (IPP) put up under the 2002 power policy during a briefing on power sector. Only Jamshoro power station is now being converted on coal with multilateral financial assistance.

“Another substantial amount of $1.5-1.6 billion a year on fuel can be saved by providing gas and oil to the power producers according to their position on the order of merit based on their fuel efficiency,” contends the executive who does not want to give his name due to the sensitive nature of relationship between the IPPs and the government. If his argument is accepted, then the government should prefer eight IPPs with a cumulative generation capacity of 1,700 megawatts set up under the 2002 policy in the supply of gas and oil for generation. Currently, the government is providing gas and oil to the most inefficient Gencos or Generation Companies in the public sector. “The decision-makers must understand that IPPs are practically ‘public sector’ companies as the government is their only buyer and under their power purchase agreements they cannot sell electricity to any one else,” he adds.

Further, he says, the savings in fuel costs should help the government eliminate power subsidies, considerably cut its inflationary borrowings from banks, bridge the budget gap, spare funds for new investment in hydropower projects and lift some pressure off the country’s weakening balance-of-payments position.

Saba Power was the first IPP to apply for permission to convert its furnace oil based plant on coal in November 2011. The company started under the 1994 power policy was hopeful of reducing the fuel cost component by Rs5.5 per unit at the time of formulation of the proposal, according to the proposal submitted by it. It expected a saving of Rs126 billion over the remaining life of the contract. It had proposed installation of coal fired boilers at the other side of its steam turbine, which would ensure regular supplies from the furnace oil boilers for 12 months. But it has yet to get permission for changing its fuel.

The PPIB paper strongly believes that the solution to the country’s power woes lies in converting maximum thermal power on coal because volatile global oil prices have resulted in huge circular debt and unsustainable generation cost and, thus, subsidies for consumers.

According to a study by the USAID, says a senior official of the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco), the circular debt had been estimated to be around Rs872 billion or four per cent of GDP.

However, there are some issues involved in the conversion of the existing power plants on coal. The conversion will reduce the net generation capacity, increase maintenance costs, and affect efficiency of the plant. Additionally, the conversion will require capital cost and plant shutdown. Moreover, there are limitations to space for coal storage and ash handling.

Still, some power sector experts feel that these issues could be handled easily once the government has determined its priorities. “None of these issues is insurmountable. We desperately need to fix our power sector if the economy has to be salved and the masses given some relief from high power prices. If India can produce more than two-thirds of its electricity from coal, why can’t we?,” he asks.

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #148 on: April 09, 2013, 12:17:27 AM »
Finance minister paid 12 billion to power companies.  Kal Lao power sector
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #149 on: April 09, 2013, 12:57:56 AM »
Finance minister paid 12 billion to power companies.  Kal Lao power sector
http://urdu.aaj.tv/4_business
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #150 on: April 09, 2013, 02:05:09 AM »
Finance minister paid 12 billion to power companies.  Kal Lao power sector
http://urdu.aaj.tv/4_business
Power sector: Ministry seeks Rs 41.072 billion sales tax refunds (BR)
The Federal Board of Revenue has received a request from Ministry of Water and Power to release sales tax refunds amounting to Rs 41.072 billion payable to power sector units and issued notification to address sales tax related matters in power sector. Sources told Business Recorder here on Saturday that the finance officers of power distribution companies (Discos) have met senior FBR officials at the FBR House to resolve the issue of sales tax refund payments.
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP

Online asianstock

  • Quick Learner
  • Active Members
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
  • Thanks Received: 6
  • Don't hold your breath
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #152 on: April 10, 2013, 01:31:10 AM »
http://dawn.com/2013/04/09/pm-orders-to-inject-rs-20-billion-to-ease-power-crisis/

Laoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Poooooora Power Sector!!!!!!!!  :dance   :dance   :dance

Offline Farzooq

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18799
  • Thanks Received: 196
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #153 on: April 10, 2013, 04:43:42 PM »
IPPs: another ‘Powerful’ performance in the making
 
The power sector of Pakistan has a unique return structure. The cost as well as return components has built in immunity against both local and foreign inflation, as returns are adjusted to prevailing foreign exchange rates. This unique structure provides a natural hedge to equity investors against rising inflation, depreciating local currency and even high interest rates, thus helping to sustain returns, and payouts, despite a host of negatives, be it the notorious circular debt, recurring power cuts or uncertain law & order. Keeping in focus these triggers, we expect FY13E to be a year of remarkable growth followed by sustainable years ahead.
 
Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC)
 
Looking ahead, the track seems to be smooth for HUBC in particular. Assuming old plant having an average load factor of 77% and 75% for FY13E and FY14F respectively, we foresee company’s topline to remain around PKR 180bn, with higher indexation adjustments making up for lower units generated. At one side, growing project company equity and, declining finance cost on the other, is expected to lift up the bottomline. In line with growing profitability and HUBC’s history of robust payouts, we also foresee the cash dividends to increase ahead. For FY13E and FY14F, we are looking forward to cash dividends of PKR 7.0/share and PKR 7.50/share, resulting in a forward DY of 13.3% and 14.2%, respectively. We recommend ‘Buy’ on HUBC with Dec-13 TP at PKR 64, offering a 21% upside!
 
Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO)
 
KAPCO being a seasoned IPP is expected to follow a steady path. While volatility in sales is mainly due to the change in price of LSFO, HSD and Gas, the bottomline impact relies heavily on finance cost and other operating income. Going forward, we expect KAPCO to post 18% YoY improvement in net profitability for FY13E. Along with the result, we expect KAPCO to distribute a cash dividend of PKR 6.50/share for FY13E translating in a DY of 12%. Similarly, FY14F is also expected to be a year of growing profitability for KAPCO where the bottomline is expected to increase by 5% YoY. Payout ratio is expected to improve further, where FY14F dividend is expected at PKR 7.5/share, a DY of 14%. We recommend ‘Buy’ on KAPCO with Dec-13 TP of PKR 60, providing a 12% upside!
 
Nishat Chunian Power Limited (NCPL)
 
Going forward, NCPL is expected to show considerable improvement in financial results. Company’s topline is anticipated to grow sharply while the growth in gross profit is expected to be stable around 4% (due to in-built hedging against expected long-term PKR depreciation v/s USD of 5%). Coupled with a slight decline in finance cost due to lower short-term borrowings, we look forward to a 29% YoY growth in net profitability in FY13E while 9% YoY growth in FY14F. Moreover, we are sanguine about cash dividends of PKR 4/share and PKR 4.5/share in FY13E and FY14F, respectively. The dividends translate into not-to-be-missed dividend yield of 14% and 16%, respectively. On a pure DY play, we recommend ‘Buy’ on NCPL.
 
Nishat Power Limited (NPL)
 
Our dividend discount model estimates NPL to have a target value of PKR 25/share for Dec-13. At its last closing, the scrip is trading at a premium of 5% to our target price. We are hopeful of growth in cash dividends in coming years as earnings are anticipated to follow steady growth path. For FY13, we are optimistic about PKR 2.5/share to be distributed as cash dividend, translating into dividend yield of 9.5%, whereas FY14F cash dividend is expected to be around PKR 3.50/share, an expected DY of 13.3%. With limited upside potential, we recommend ‘Hold’ on NPL with Dec-13 target price of PKR 25.

ahl
TOP PICKS
Engro fatima ogdc pol pso dgkc mlcf kapco npl ubl bafl atrl nml

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #154 on: April 10, 2013, 11:38:31 PM »
 Financa minister refused to pay 20 billions to power sector. Zardari ordered today immediately not 20 but 30 billion should be paid to PS.
Good sign for PS if payment done
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP

Offline tariqhafeez

  • Research
  • Strategic Investor
  • *****
  • Posts: 1074
  • Thanks Received: 37
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #155 on: April 11, 2013, 12:44:49 AM »
Dear Asim bhai, Do you hv any news item as reference for zardari has increased the payment to power sector. Please share.

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #156 on: April 11, 2013, 12:48:19 AM »
Trigger on PTV channel after 10.30.
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP

Offline stockz_123

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2027
  • Thanks Received: 32
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #157 on: April 11, 2013, 11:39:30 AM »
On brink of collapse: Energy crisis to worsen due to mounting circular debt

The power crisis is likely to worsen in the upcoming days due to mounting circular debt, which may force some other power plants to shut down, aggravating load-shedding across the country. Thermal power plants are operating at 40% to 50% capacity, which may further drop due to non-payment of dues. Six power plants including Orient, Halmore, Saif, Saphire, Uch and Hub Power Company's (Hubco) Narowal were shut down due to the circular debt issue. Ongoing load-shedding will be controlled following the release of Rs20 billion, as private companies do not provide electricity without money. (Tribune)

We believe that this is the negative side for the power and energy sectors and most of the companies will be affected by the shortage of power supply, government should take the corrective action to come up with problem of totally black out in the country

SCS

Offline asim.786

  • Research
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2839
  • Thanks Received: 19
    • View Profile
Re: Power Sector
« Reply #158 on: April 12, 2013, 12:37:59 AM »
Tomorrow will be power sector day inshallah
Top Picks. EFOODS,PPL,SHEL,FFC,PNSC,JSCL,BIPL.FFBL,IGIIL!CSAP