Author Topic: ISL -- International Steel Limited  (Read 169676 times)

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Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1019 on: May 12, 2018, 03:35:59 PM »
Haan rates bohat achay hain kahen lalach day kar na mar dain

Pakinvestorsguide

Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1019 on: May 12, 2018, 03:35:59 PM »

Offline optimistic

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1020 on: May 12, 2018, 06:40:26 PM »
Steel sector is so weak, last time 88 se bounce back howa tha time if mandee comes will buy around 90s.
TOP Scripts as below: Updated (28th Nov, 2016)
1. Wyeth, 2. SHJS, 3. FFLNV, 4. TGL, 5. BERG, 6. APL, 7. PKGS, 8. EPQL, 9. ISL, 10. FFBL. 11. TRIPF. 12 ASL

I am not perfect. Please do your own research my comments / or views may not prove accurate, nor i advise anyone to act upon on my recommendations, nor i accept any responsibility on me. Your money, your gain / or loss, before investing into any script better you gain sufficient knowledge of business and calculate risk accordingly as per your risk appetite.

Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1021 on: May 12, 2018, 07:15:56 PM »
Steel sector is so weak, last time 88 se bounce back howa tha time if mandee comes will buy around 90s.
[/quot    looking forward to that price

Offline optimistic

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1022 on: May 12, 2018, 09:25:03 PM »
Steel sector is so weak, last time 88 se bounce back howa tha time if mandee comes will buy around 90s.
[/quot    looking forward to that price

Post expansion completion Qtrly revenue will be around 15 billion.
TOP Scripts as below: Updated (28th Nov, 2016)
1. Wyeth, 2. SHJS, 3. FFLNV, 4. TGL, 5. BERG, 6. APL, 7. PKGS, 8. EPQL, 9. ISL, 10. FFBL. 11. TRIPF. 12 ASL

I am not perfect. Please do your own research my comments / or views may not prove accurate, nor i advise anyone to act upon on my recommendations, nor i accept any responsibility on me. Your money, your gain / or loss, before investing into any script better you gain sufficient knowledge of business and calculate risk accordingly as per your risk appetite.

Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1023 on: May 14, 2018, 02:10:41 PM »
is ko aj upper cap lagao..

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1024 on: May 16, 2018, 01:19:03 PM »
We continue our coverage on International Steels (ISL). Couple of days ago, ISL
increased average price of Cold Roll Coil (CRC) & Hot Dipped Galvanized Coil
(HDGC) by ~Rs3000/MT.
? We have revisited our model and updated recent hike in prices up to Rs98,650/MT of CRC
and Rs101,773/MT of HDGC. The global HRC prices was also around $600/MT until now in
this quarter. However, landed price of HRC in PKR is Rs74k/MT; hence we assumed same
price of HRC in 4QFY18 for estimations.
? As per our model, assuming without expansion we expect total sales volume could reach
123k MT in 4QFY18 thus posting a revenue of Rs12.168bn whilst maintaining gross & net
margins of 18% & 9% respectively. We expect ISL to earn Rs2.52/sh in 4QFY18 and this
will result in cumulative earnings of Rs9.95/sh in FY18 (exclusive of expansion impact).
? We have been anticipating an expansion for sometime which should invariably come in
4QFY18 as being mentioned by the company from time to time. We expect plant of 450k
MT capacity of CRC to be installed in 4QFY18.
? Conservatively we assumed total capacity utilization of 62% (inclusive of expansion) in
FY18, hence this escalates production estimates. We see an addition of 50k MT of HDGC in
sales volume in 4QFY18 which will induce our earnings forecast.

On the basis of expansion impact, we see ISL could post revenue of Rs17.16bn with sales volume of 173k MT in 4QFY18.
Assuming same prices, this expansion will have a significant positive impact on the earnings of the company. We expect an
incremental impact of Rs1.57/sh in 4QFY18 wherein cumulative earnings could reach Rs11.52/sh in FY18 as against our
earlier forecast of Rs9.95/sh.
? Going forward in FY19 we expect ISL could post a revenue of Rs69.6bn with a total capacity utilization of 74%. As per our model
CRC production could reach 700k MT out of which 380k MT of HDGC could be produced. As per our channel checks,
management also highlighted that producing and selling HDGC would be a priority as it is a high margin product as against CRC,
we assume sales mix of CRC/HDGC will be 46%/54% in FY19.
? As per our model full year impact of expansion in FY19 will show a significant jump in earnings. As per our conservative outlook,
ISL could post an EPS of Rs16.70/sh.
? ISL is yielding FY18 & FY19 PE of 10.7x & 6.4x respectively. Moreover the company has already distributed an interim
dividend of Rs1.5/sh, we expect another dividend of Rs3.5/sh in FY18.

scstrade
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Offline HAMDANI_Punjtani

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1025 on: May 16, 2018, 08:53:26 PM »
I am positive about ISL except for any nasty duty cuts in new pak china FTA
BOP,ENGRO,TGL,KEL,HASCOL,Efoods,Dgkc,ffbl

Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1026 on: May 16, 2018, 11:19:39 PM »
BHAI I BOUGHT @ 110 AB JO HALAT CHAL RAHAY HAIN AVERAGE KARNAY K BHI DIL NAHE KAR RAHA HAI KAL UPER GAYA TO THEAK HAI NAHE TO LOSE MAIN BACHNA PARAY GA

Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1027 on: May 18, 2018, 01:06:19 AM »
Sold all my holdings in loss

Offline Farzooq

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1028 on: May 18, 2018, 12:02:17 PM »
Pakistan Engineering: Concerns overplayed; reiterate BUY!

Recent softness in international margins has clearly emerged as a source of concern depicted in recent underperformance of flat-rolled steel stocks (-8%/-1.5% in 3M/6M relative to KSE-100). However we believe that the concerns have been overplayed.

Developments on international front have weighed on the margins, however expected agreement of EU exports to US by month end would likely take off pressure from the margins, in our view.

We contend that investors’ focus has been misplaced from meaningful protection available through antidumping duty which would likely protect local industry from adverse changes in int’l margin as local CRC prices still trades at PKR5-6k/ton discount to its imported counterpart.   

Comparing local CRC prices with average HRC price considering an inventory cycle of 3-4mths, CRC-HRC margins are expected to hover around USD68/ton, vs USD72/ton in 3QFY18, lending further support to our thesis.

With massive underperformance, flat steel players are trading at implied CRC margins of USD53/ton, reflecting a steep discount of 22% to local margins. Hence, we reiterate BUY on ISL/ASL, with ISL as our top pick, trading at an attractive forward P/E of 5.2/9.2x, respectively.

International scenario weighs on primary margins: Flat steel product prices have been significantly influenced by recent changes in international scenario. To recall, US imposed duties on imports of flat steel and aluminum providing relief to its allies in short-term. Deadline of recent extension is expected to end by May'18 which may be further extended. As a result, since 22nd-Mar'18 CRC prices have come down by 1.37% while HRC prices have increased by 4.94% on the back of strong demand in the Asian region. This resultantly has impacted int’l primary margins which have come off by 33% to USD53/ton since then.

What does this mean for the local players? Recent weakness in international margins have clearly been a source of concern for the market as depicted in recent underperformance where  flat steel sector was down 8%/1.5% in 3M/6M (relative to KSE-100). We believe that concerns on the local front are overplayed given the recent imposition of antidumping duty, which continues to provide meaningful protection to the local industry where spread of PKR5-6k/ton between local and imported CRC is likely to protect local industry from any adverse changes in the international scenario. Moreover, recent hike of PKR4k/ton in CRC and PKR6k/ton in galvanized steel prices does signal towards a strong local pricing arrangement where local players successfully passed on the impact of currency devaluation in a staggered manner. We do not rule out the possibility of further price increase in the range of 2-3%.

That said, fear of sharp margin attrition remains unfounded comparing local CRC prices with average HRC prices considering an inventory cycle of 3-4 months. Our calculations suggest CRC-HRC margin to settle around USD67/ton against our LT average of USD70/ton. 

Import substitution to keep utilization strong: Strong local demand of flat steel has enticed existing players to expand their capacities while new player has also emerged. Recently, Siddiqsons Tin Plate Limited (STPL) announced its plan to add 200ktpa of CRC capacity with an objective of backward integration to lower its cost of production. The project is expected to come online by Jun'20. As per the management guideline, the company intends to sell excess CRC capacity (post own consumption) in the local and export market. Considering conservative demand growth at an average of 7% over the next two years and capacity additions of estimated 1,030tpa we still see industry capacity utilization to hover around 78% post imports substitution as 25% demand is currently fulfilled through imports.

Investment Perspective: With massive underperformance flat steel players are trading at implied CRC margins of USD53/USD50 per ton, reflecting a steep discount of 22% to local margins. Hence, we reiterate BUY on ISL/ASL trading at forward P/E of 5.2/9.5x, offering decent returns of 49%/59% from last closing, respectively.

Risks to our thesis: (i) Adverse movements in the primary margins, (ii) slowdown in flat steel demand, (iii) hike in HRC prices, and (iv) delay in COD of expansion by ISL and ASL.

bma
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Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1029 on: May 19, 2018, 12:30:49 AM »
Haan haan galat reports day day kar logo ko uthwaii jao mal

Offline optimistic

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1030 on: May 20, 2018, 01:45:19 AM »
80 pa mil jaye tu will buy big qty.  :D
TOP Scripts as below: Updated (28th Nov, 2016)
1. Wyeth, 2. SHJS, 3. FFLNV, 4. TGL, 5. BERG, 6. APL, 7. PKGS, 8. EPQL, 9. ISL, 10. FFBL. 11. TRIPF. 12 ASL

I am not perfect. Please do your own research my comments / or views may not prove accurate, nor i advise anyone to act upon on my recommendations, nor i accept any responsibility on me. Your money, your gain / or loss, before investing into any script better you gain sufficient knowledge of business and calculate risk accordingly as per your risk appetite.

Offline bhatti11

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Re: ISL -- International Steel Limited
« Reply #1031 on: May 20, 2018, 02:35:10 AM »
80 pa mil jaye tu will buy big qty.  :D
JO HALAAT HAIN 80 PER TO CHALA HE JAEE GA ARAM SAY IS SAY NECHAY MILAY TO AOR BHE ACHI BAAT HAI LETS C