Author Topic: FCEPL -- formerly Engro Foods Limited  (Read 1028008 times)

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Offline MZ

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FCEPL -- formerly Engro Foods Limited
« Reply #5559 on: January 31, 2018, 08:20:16 PM »
AKD Daily
 
EFOODS: Concentration risk running high
 
Tough operational dynamics continue to mar EFOODS financial performance where we expect the company to round off CY17F on a weak note. In this regard, revenues are likely to come down by 18%YoY where gradual fragmentation of the industry in the backdrop of increasing competition has inhibited conversion to packaged milk, impacting volumetric growth. Additionally, GM is expected to come down to 17.2% in CY17F (vs. 22.6% in CY16) on account of adverse regulatory developments (enhanced duty on powdered milk, moved to tax-exempt from zero rating regime) coupled with recovery in international milk prices (FAO Dairy index up 31%YoY). All these factors are likely to manifest in CY17F earnings where we expect the company to post NPAT of PkR562mn (EPS: PkR0.73), down 76%YoY. While the stock has rallied 22% MTD, we remain unconvinced on further price performance as the company continues to struggle on multiple fronts - PFA's campaign against tea whiteners (labeling requirements) being the most prominent for now. In this backdrop, we continue to remain apprehensive until possible product initiations come through. At current price level, the stock trades at high multiples (forward PE/PS at 79.8x/1.71x) vindicating our Reduce stance.       
 
CY17E earnings to remain depressed: EFOODS is expected to post NPAT of PkR562mn (EPS: PkR0.73) in CY17E versus NPAT of PkR2.3bn (EPS: PkR3.11) in CY16 - down 76%YoY. In 4QCY17 alone, the company is expected to post earnings of PkR175mn (EPS: PkR0.23) against loss of PkR214mn (LPS: PkR0.28) in 4QCY16. In this regard, revenues are estimated to shrink, going down by 18%YoY/2%QoQ on adverse regulatory developments along with increasing competition while GM is estimated to come down to 17.2% in CY17E vs. 22.6% in CY16.
 
Tea whitener under PFA's brunt: Already suffering from a ban on Omung in Punjab, the recent speculation and rumors regarding the quality of UHT milk along with issues pertaining to the labeling of tea whiteners added on to pressures during the year. While EFOODS has steered clear in case of Olpers, repackaging of tea whiteners can potentially slowdown growth in the respective segment. To note, Tarang contributes ~50-55% to the company's topline, where potential volumetric regression in the same can impact profits going forward.            .
 
Investment Perspective: Until noticeable fundamental improvements particularly w.r.t product innovations and visible efforts on market recapturing come through, we continue to remain skeptical on the company's growth potential. Concentration risk runs high with product initiations turning out to be the only bright spot for now. After gaining 22%MTD, the stock is currently trading above our TP of PkR84.20/sh with valuation multiples at a forward PE/PS of 79.8x/1.71x. 

Pakinvestorsguide

FCEPL -- formerly Engro Foods Limited
« Reply #5559 on: January 31, 2018, 08:20:16 PM »

Offline kamal

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« Reply #5560 on: January 31, 2018, 08:25:13 PM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Sales down by 10 b atleast yoy basis. Already at v high pe multiple. Can baloon down 80 or even less. To me there is every possibility that investor realligning their long term efoods investments to ffl. My views.
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline Deep_Value

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« Reply #5561 on: February 01, 2018, 12:28:09 AM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Sales down by 10 b atleast yoy basis. Already at v high pe multiple. Can baloon down 80 or even less. To me there is every possibility that investor realligning their long term efoods investments to ffl. My views.

What is point to switch between EFOODS and FFL if the industry dynamics are bad then it will hurt both. Only the unconfirmed news for EFOODS could be bringing new product line such as cheese, butter and dry milk powder could bring some exitement.

Offline kamal

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« Reply #5562 on: February 01, 2018, 07:01:20 AM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Sales down by 10 b atleast yoy basis. Already at v high pe multiple. Can baloon down 80 or even less. To me there is every possibility that investor realligning their long term efoods investments to ffl. My views.

What is point to switch between EFOODS and FFL if the industry dynamics are bad then it will hurt both. Only the unconfirmed news for EFOODS could be bringing new product line such as cheese, butter and dry milk powder could bring some exitement.

Decision is hard. 1 is loss making 1 is profitable. Point is growth, to me just like every share is has its point of saturation and growth etc ffl gives more space and room for growth comparatively. Group backing is 👍 so investment not going nywhere. Jump from 20 to 50 for ffl is probable compare to 70 -90 range of efoods. Ny ways people have tendency to switch and to me ffl has more room for growth.
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline aatradekhi

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« Reply #5563 on: February 01, 2018, 10:24:29 AM »
Thanks for views

it means wait at least 80  :confused1:

Offline aatradekhi

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« Reply #5564 on: February 07, 2018, 01:01:56 PM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Result expectation report ?

Offline Ksexb

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« Reply #5565 on: February 08, 2018, 06:00:23 PM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Result expectation report ?
Recently i went to Hyperstar store in World trade center Islamabad where when i was picking up OLPER carton , i was interrupted by a staff member who said "this is low quality expensive milk which is not very healthy" while he pointed to Nestle as the best milk and suggested that i should buy Nestle Milkpak. The milk market competition is getting very nasty now.

Offline MZ

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FCEPL -- formerly Engro Foods Limited
« Reply #5566 on: February 08, 2018, 10:27:12 PM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Result expectation report ?
Recently i went to Hyperstar store in World trade center Islamabad where when i was picking up OLPER carton , i was interrupted by a staff member who said "this is low quality expensive milk which is not very healthy" while he pointed to Nestle as the best milk and suggested that i should buy Nestle Milkpak. The milk market competition is getting very nasty now.

staff member was right milkpak is better than Olper

Offline kamal

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FCEPL -- formerly Engro Foods Limited
« Reply #5567 on: February 08, 2018, 11:35:48 PM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Result expectation report ?
Recently i went to Hyperstar store in World trade center Islamabad where when i was picking up OLPER carton , i was interrupted by a staff member who said "this is low quality expensive milk which is not very healthy" while he pointed to Nestle as the best milk and suggested that i should buy Nestle Milkpak. The milk market competition is getting very nasty now.

staff member was right milkpak is better than Olper

Taste wise milkpak is not good its plain .. olper nurpur feels enriched to me
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline Deep_Value

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FCEPL -- formerly Engro Foods Limited
« Reply #5568 on: February 09, 2018, 07:17:28 PM »
Annual Result

Friday 09-Feb-2018 03:00pm

Expectation with Target price pls

Result expectation report ?
Recently i went to Hyperstar store in World trade center Islamabad where when i was picking up OLPER carton , i was interrupted by a staff member who said "this is low quality expensive milk which is not very healthy" while he pointed to Nestle as the best milk and suggested that i should buy Nestle Milkpak. The milk market competition is getting very nasty now.

staff member was right milkpak is better than Olper

Taste wise milkpak is not good its plain .. olper nurpur feels enriched to me

Offcourse Olpers has something that attracted consumers otherwise Nestle was there in market well before olpers and taking away market share from a global giant like Nestle was not a joke.

Offline Learner

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« Reply #5569 on: February 09, 2018, 10:27:21 PM »
February 09, 2018

" Please note that the Board of Directors Meeting in Progress".

Offline 007

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« Reply #5570 on: February 10, 2018, 12:00:01 AM »
still short  :thanks:

Offline HAMDANI_Punjtani

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« Reply #5571 on: February 10, 2018, 01:01:17 PM »
It will be interesting to see how much sale has increased QoQ and YoY. As we might be able to gauge that how much loose milk sales is being converted into packaged milk. Any substantia l increase in sales will be a trigger point for this scrip
BOP,ENGRO,TGL,KEL,HASCOL,Efoods,Dgkc,ffbl

Offline kamal

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« Reply #5572 on: February 10, 2018, 01:53:28 PM »
It will be interesting to see how much sale has increased QoQ and YoY. As we might be able to gauge that how much loose milk sales is being converted into packaged milk. Any substantia l increase in sales will be a trigger point for this scrip

Bro sale decreased on yoy nd i think qoq basis too.

Annual will be around 33 compared to 44 last year
Realize Profit when and wherever u can. Coz its profit for which we are here for not marrying scrips. Fundamentals at KSE  weigh not more than 20-30%. Move with the moves of market. If u move against than u'll be loser and accumulating dividend only.

Offline Salammembers

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« Reply #5573 on: February 11, 2018, 12:43:10 AM »
It will be interesting to see how much sale has increased QoQ and YoY. As we might be able to gauge that how much loose milk sales is being converted into packaged milk. Any substantia l increase in sales will be a trigger point for this scrip

Bro sale decreased on yoy nd i think qoq basis too.

Annual will be around 33 compared to 44 last year
so monday koo pakka lower lock?

Offline Deep_Value

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« Reply #5574 on: February 11, 2018, 08:33:08 PM »
It will be interesting to see how much sale has increased QoQ and YoY. As we might be able to gauge that how much loose milk sales is being converted into packaged milk. Any substantia l increase in sales will be a trigger point for this scrip

Bro sale decreased on yoy nd i think qoq basis too.

Annual will be around 33 compared to 44 last year
so monday koo pakka lower lock?

Is dead body ko aur kitna maro gaaay :bangin:
I think this fall in price will only help Friesland the Dutch company to buy back all the shares at cheaper rate and de list the company. As they did in Phillipines.


Offline aatradekhi

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« Reply #5575 on: February 12, 2018, 09:06:54 AM »
74-80 main dutch nahi aaya buy back k lia ab kia aai ga atleast 70 below ho tau dutch sochay ga apni average ko kam karnay k lia  :$:

Offline aatradekhi

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« Reply #5576 on: February 12, 2018, 09:50:11 AM »

EFOODS (Engro Foods Limited.)
Monday - Feb 12, 2018 | 09:40:34 | 25 of 25
Annual General Meeting will be held on Apr 26, 2018
Earning per Share is Rs. 0.49/-
Book Closure from Apr 19, 2018 to Mar 26, 2018
Dividend issued for the Year ended is 4.00%

Offline aatradekhi

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« Reply #5577 on: February 12, 2018, 10:09:25 AM »

Offline Hassan_Ali_Khan

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« Reply #5578 on: February 12, 2018, 11:57:54 AM »
need advise, EFOODS hold or sell?