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The Market ! => Pak Equities => Topic started by: Farzooq on August 19, 2009, 10:26:13 AM

Title: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 19, 2009, 10:26:13 AM
All About national refinery
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 19, 2009, 10:26:23 AM
NRL: FY09 earnings preview/‘Buy’ maintained
 

August 18, 2009 (JS Research)

 

(PDF report is also attached)

 

NRL board is expected to meet on August 19, 2009 to announce FY09 results. We expect a full year EPS of Rs22.7, down 70% YoY – however, 4QFY09 earnings would arrive at Rs12.1 per share. Moreover, we expect a final cash dividend of Rs17/share with the results. The scrip, since the beginning of 2009, has outperformed KSE 100 Index by 90%, posting a healthy return of 126%.

 

We maintain our ‘Buy’ stance on NRL which is currently available at FY10F and FY11F dividend yields of 9.3% and 10.7%, respectively versus historic 5-year average dividend yield of 6.0%. Moreover, the scrip is available at FY10F and FY11F PE of 4.5x and 4.1x compared to last 5-year’s (FY04-FY08) average PE of 5.3x (excluding year 2005). Besides attractive dividend yield, the stock is offering a healthy upside of 30% to our fair value of Rs280/share.

 

Fuel business to be an earnings dampener in FY09

Fuel business remained the earnings dampener for NRL throughout FY09. Out of the Rs22.7/share profit expected in FY09 (FY08 EPS Rs75.1), fuel business is likely to contribute a loss of Rs30/share (Rs38.3/share profit in FY08). However, lube business is expected to show robust earnings of Rs52.7/share (Rs36.8/share in earnings during FY08), thanks to better lube margins this year, which is likely to tone down dismal fuel segment performance.

 

Loss in fuel business is due to one offs like 1) huge exchange losses against crude oil purchases amid currency devaluation (per share impact estimated at Rs15.0 in FY09) and 2) huge inventory losses due to more than US$70/bbl decline in oil (estimated impact of Rs20-22/share in FY09).

 

Rs48/share earnings likely in FY10

Given its low risk to fluctuating oil prices compared to its peers and stable lube earnings, we expect NRL to post an EPS of Rs48 in FY10. Our base case earning is subject to US$59 per barrel average oil price and prevailing product spreads (difference between crude oil and product price). Currently, crude oil is trading at US$67 per barrel while furnace oil and diesel are trading at US$7 per barrel discount and US$9 barrel premium to crude oil price, respectively. In worst case (assuming average oil prices of US$59/bbl in FY10 and zero margin on fuel business), full year earnings would be Rs38-40 per share while in best case (assuming fuel margin averages US$4 per barrel in FY10) earnings would be Rs68-70/share.

 

Oil price risk is minimal

Relative to its peer (PRL), oil price risk is minimal for NRL. According to FY08 oil statistics, NRL has a designed crude oil storage capacity of 156k tons (16-17days). Moreover, the lube business of the company provides a hedge to any sharp decline in oil price. Since FO is a base material for lube manufacturing, decline in oil price reduces cost of production. Thus, NRL due to its pricing power in lube segment maintains healthy margins. This partially offsets the impact of inventory losses which was evident this year.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on August 20, 2009, 11:33:53 AM
NRL 125% D, 19.17 EPS
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on August 24, 2009, 11:44:08 AM
NRL: Favorable risk-return profile
???? NRL posted 4QFY09 earnings of PRs8.5/sh, translating into FY09 earnings of
PRs19.2/sh. While cash payout of PRs12.5/sh is inline with market expectation,
earnings surprised negatively.
???? Confluence of weak GRMs and absence of inventory gains should expose weak
underlying core earnings for pure fuel refiners in 1QFY10. Given its advantage in
base oil, we expect GRMs for NRL to fare relatively better.
???? We think NRL offers an attractive risk-return profile at FY10E P/BV of 0.8x (ex
PRs12.5/sh cash dividend) and P/E of 5.4x.
???? We see 10-15% upside to FY10E earnings estimate from concurrent
implementation of deemed duty increase and processing cost. However timing for
implementation of both proposals remains uncertain
In line FY09 results, absence of bonus surprised
National Refinery Ltd posted FY09 earnings of PRs1,533mn or PRs19.2/sh, down 74% YoY. NRL
also paid cash dividend of PRs12.5/sh. While cash payout is inline with market expectations,
earnings (potentially due to lower timing gains) and absence of stock dividend surprised the market
negatively. Profitability reflects, in our opinion, relative robustness of NRL’s earnings driven by
base oil segment considering inventory losses, exchange losses and weak GRMs in FY09.
Key highlights
Lube oil advantage. While detailed accounts are not available, we believe NRL’s FY09 earnings
are totally driven by the lube segment. This also explains dividend payout of 65% in FY09 (income
from fuel segment has a dividend ceiling of PRs5/sh). In 9MFY09, after tax earnings of the lube
segment (PRs3.3bn) offset the PRs2.5bn losses of the fuel oil segment. At a time when GRMs are
undergoing a cyclical down-cycle, strong lube margins should enable NRL to fare relatively better
than its peers. We think the market has not fully appreciated the benefits of lube segment.
11-12% lower throughput. NRL throughput is believed to have dropped by 11-12% in FY09 due
to (1) working capital constraint stemming from inter-corporate debt and (2) weak fuel oil margins.
Financial charges. Unlike other peers, NRL has not booked financial cost on over-due payables.
FX losses of PRs2.36bn (PRs19/sh after tax booked in 9MFY09) contributed to financial charges.
NRL-FY09 results snapshot
PRsmn 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 FY09 FY08 % ?
Net Sales 43,415 23,765 20,260 22,139 109,578 129,386 -15%
Gross profit 1,942 (523) 2,742 1,113 5,273 10,681 -51%
Fin. charges 1,897 279 215 3 2,394 1,332 80%
Net profit (91) (704) 1,647 681 1,533 6,005 -74%
EPS -1.1 -8.8 20.6 8.5 19.2 75.1 -74%
DPS 12.5 20.0 -37%
GRMs* 5.43 -1.54 7.30 1.50 3.23 8.31 -61%
* includes processing cost and timing gains/losses Source; NRL,
10-15% earnings upside from deemed duty and processing cost
Reportedly, the sub-committee of the ECC has approved two key proposals on diesel pricing (1)
increase in deemed duty to 10% from 7.5%; (2) provision of PRs1.2/litre processing cost for diesel
de-sulfurization project. We think refiners would have a difficult time in concurrent implementation
of both proposals. We see 10-15% upside to FY10E earnings estimate should both proposals be
implemented simultaneously. Given findings of the judicial commission report on oil prices, media
scrutiny and appointment of new minister, we believe timing of implementation of proposals are still
uncertain. The next hearing of the SC bench on petroleum product prices is scheduled on 28th Sep.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on September 12, 2009, 01:13:05 PM

broke below support of 220 with volumes sell
next support 210
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on September 12, 2009, 01:44:24 PM
Net refining margins (Gross Refinery Margins GRMsprocessing
cost) have turned positive to US$1 per
barrel thus far in 1QFY09 versus negative US$4 per
barrel in 4QFY09. Major improvement in margins
have been witnessed in diesel (HSD) and furnace oil
(FO) as average spread on HSD increased to US$9
per barrel compared to US$5 per barrel in the
preceding quarter (4QFY09). Likewise spread on FO
(a loss making product for the refineries) reduced to
negative US$10 per barrel versus US$14 per barrel
in 4QFY09.
We expect NRL would be the major beneficiary as it has the
highest share of HSD in its production profile. Our preliminary
1QFY10 earnings projection for NRL is Rs12-14 per share
followed by ATRL (Rs4-5 per share) and PRL (loss of Rs7-9
per share). Our preferred stock in the refinery sector is NRL
due to its low risk in oil price and stable lube earnings.
Trading at FY10 and FY11 PE of 4.8x and 4.4x with
respective dividend yield of 12.1% and 14.7%, we maintain
‘Buy’ stance at current levels.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 07, 2009, 01:50:40 PM
nrl bm 19th oct
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 09, 2009, 04:51:22 PM
Fuel business: Earnings dampener in FY09
Fuel business remained the earnings dampener for NRL
throughout FY09.NRL reported loss of Rs33.8 per share in
fuel business compared to Rs53 per share profit realized in
lube business. As a result, NRL reported a meager profit of
Rs19.2 per share in FY09 versus Rs75.1 per share in FY08.
Loss in fuel business was due to one offs like 1) huge
exchange losses of Rs2.4bn against crude oil purchases
amid currency devaluation and 2) inventory losses due to
sharp decline in oil price (estimated at Rs1.5-1.7bn–after tax).

Base case FY10 EPS expected at Rs50
Our base case earnings estimate for FY10 is Rs50 per share,
which includes both lube and fuel earnings. We have
assumed fuel margins of US$3 per barrel in our financial
models. Further, due to our average oil price assumption of
US$60 per barrel in FY10, we expect NRL to incur inventory
losses as well. The stock is trading at FY10 dividend yield of
12.2%. We maintain our ‘Buy’ stance on NRL at current
levels.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 17, 2009, 03:10:44 PM
National Refinery Ltd              19.10.2009             10:00 am
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2009, 09:49:38 AM
NRL expected to post a PAT of Rs674mn (EPS Rs8.43)

NRL's is expected to register a growth of 842% YoY in its PAT to Rs674 (EPS: Rs8.43) despite an anticipated slump of 60% YoY in its topline to Rs17.3bn. Both the pricing as well as the volumetric factor contributed to the contraction of the as weighted avg. price of NRL product mix declined by significant 56% while throughput is anticipated to stand at 352k tons (42% of total capacity) showing a decline of 30% YoY.

This decline in company's topline was mirrored by company's gross profit which is expected to decrease by a massive 61% YoY to Rs752mn, whereas gross margin are expected to margining improve to 94% owing to company's pricing power in the lube segment However, the major support to the bottomline is expected to come from reduction in financial charges which ballooned to Rs1.8bn last year on account of escalating exchange loss. We expect, finance cost to revert back to normality to stand at Rs50mn as USD/PKR parity depicted a stable trend during the period under review. Overall, NRL is expected to post a PAT of Rs674mn (EPS Rs8.43) but we expect no dividend payout this quarter. 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 19, 2009, 11:58:23 AM
NRL: EPS of Rs12 expected in 1QFY10
We expect NRL to post net profit of Rs958mn (EPS Rs12) in
1QFY10 compared to loss of Rs91mn (loss per share of 1.1)
last year. As per our estimates, NRL’s average net fuel
refining margin is expected to be around US$2per barrel in
1QFY10 versus US$9 per barrel in 1QFY09 (JS estimates).
Last year we saw huge inventory and exchange losses which
eroded profitability of the company. However, this time we
expect slight inventory gains amid increase in oil prices.
Moreover, lube earnings are likely to contribute around Rs8-9
per share compared to Rs19 per share last year. Trading at
FY10E and FY11F PE of 4.3x and 3.9x, respectively we
maintain our ‘Buy’ stance on NRL at current levels.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 19, 2009, 12:02:35 PM
eps 8.47
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 19, 2009, 12:48:49 PM
19-OCT-09 NRL National Refin.XD FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ENDED 30/09/2009
19-OCT-09 NRL National Refin.XD PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 1,034.288
19-OCT-09 NRL National Refin.XD PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 677.564
19-OCT-09 NRL National Refin.XD EPS = 8.47
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on October 21, 2009, 12:55:57 PM
National Refinery Limited – Financial Results 1Q FY10

National Refinery Limited (NRL) recently announced its financial results for 1Q FY10. The company reported a PAT of PKR 678mn with an EPS of PKR 8.47 in 1Q FY10 compared to a LAT of PKR 91mn and an LPS of PKR 1.14 in the corresponding period last year. The previous year had remained volatile for refineries with earnings fluctuating in line with plummeting crude oil prices.

 

 

Outlook

Currently the stock is trading at PKR 210.98 per share with a trailing PE and PB of 7.33x and 0.94x respectively. The passing year remained volatile for refineries with a massive decline in ex-refinery prices, acute depreciation in the PKR and limited production in the wake of the energy circular debt issue. Moving forward, we expect stabilization on all three fronts. The PKR is expected to sustain against the USD while crude oil prices will continue to march upward inline with the recovering global economy. Positive initiatives by the Government to resolve the circular debt issue will also ease liquidity for NRL and boost volumes which will further strengthen the company’s performance.

IGI Research

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 27, 2009, 09:43:42 AM
Refinery: NATIONAL REFINERY LIMITED - Analysis of Financial Statement Financial Year 2008 - Financial Year 2009
OVERVIEW (October 26 2009): National Refinery Limited (NRL) was incorporated on August 19, 1963 as a public limited company. Government of Pakistan took over the management of NRL under the Economic Reforms Order, 1972 under the Ministry of Production, which was exercising control through its shareholding in State Petroleum Refining and Petrochemical Corporation (PERAC).

Government had decided to place the National Refinery Limited under the administrative control of Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources in November 1998.

===================================================
COMPANY SNAPSHOT
===================================================
Name of Company           NATIONAL REFINERY LIMITED
---------------------------------------------------
Nature of Business      Oil Refinery & Distributors
Ticker                                          NRL
Share price (avg.)                                -
Market Capitalisation             Rs 17,319,166,228
===================================================
In June 2003, the government included NRL in its privatisation programme. The selling of 51% equity and transfer of management control to a strategic investor had been proposed accordingly, the due diligence process for the privatisation was initiated. After competitive bidding, the NRL was acquired by Attock Oil Group in July 2005.

The company has been privatised and the management handed over to the new owner on July 7, 2005.

The company's principal activity is to manufacture and supply fuel products, lubes, BTX asphalts and specialty products. It operates in two segments: fuel and lube. Fuel segment is a diverse supplier of fuel products and offers gasoline, diesel oils, kerosene and furnace oil. The lube segment provides different types of lube-based oils, asphalt and wax free oil for different sectors of the economy.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

There are 5 refineries currently existing in Pakistan which are:

1. PARCO; production 100,000 barrels per day equivalent to 4.5 million tonnes

2. NRL; production 65,000 barrels per day equivalent to 2.8 million tonnes

3. PRL; production 50,000 barrels per day equivalent to 2.2 million tonnes

4. ARL; production 40,000 barrels per day equivalent to 1.8 million tonnes

5. Bosicor; production barrels per day equivalent to 1.5 million tonnes

Current crude production of Pakistan is 65,000 to 67,000 barrels per day and total capacity of the refineries is 285,000 barrels per day or 12 million tons hence 22,0000 barrels per day are imported.

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

FY09 proved to be full of challenges for the oil refineries and distributors sector. Declining crude oil prices and changing price structure of high-speed diesel and motor gasoline adversely affected the gross refining margin of fuel segment. The erosion of Pak rupee against the US dollar, further aggravated the scenario, resulting in huge losses.

The profit making ability of the company is closely linked to the international oil market. The economic recession of 2008 plummeting oil prices, with the Arabian light hitting a record all-time low of US $40 per barrel in November 2008. Asymmetric prices of company's product went drastically down as a result and eroded the profitability. The outgoing quarter NRL managed to book a recovery in terms of inventory gains as oil prices picked up a gradual climb. However, lower GRM masked this upside.

The situation was compounded by drastic exchange rate depreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar, resulting in a loss of Rs 2,385 million.

In addition to this, the government revised the pricing formula in August 2008 by cutting down deemed duty on HSD from 10% to 7.5% and also revised motor gasoline pricing mechanism that further lowered down refiners' margins. Circular debt in the power and oil sector not only slowed down economic activity, but also severely affected the refineries of Pakistan. Consequently overall banking and investments have reduced significantly.

A continuous and vigilant checking by the management ensured that the refinery was operated at its optimum throughput in order to curtail losses of fuel segment in periods of negative margins. However, due to adverse margins the profitability of the fuel segment ended at after tax loss of Rs 2,699 million in FY09 compared to profit after tax of Rs 3,064 million in FY08.

In lube segment, the demand remained depressed due to slower economic activity in the country and abroad. Declining price trend kept the customers away from routine buying. The company emerged with a profit after tax of Rs 1,533 million as compared to Rs 6,005 million in the last financial period.

PROFITABILITY

As mentioned earlier, the industry's profitability is directly related to the international oil prices since a major chunk of local demand is fulfilled through import of crude oil. During the past years demand and consumption pattern also witnessed a major change. While the demand of motor gasoline experienced a decline due to increase used of CNG and LPG, furnace oil demand remained depressed due to conversion to gas and coal based plants by sectors like cement.

In FY09, NRL's profitability declined considerably in the absence of windfall gains it had received in the previous years due to inflating crude oil prices. Gross profit margin declined by 49%. Exchange rate loss caused finance cost to jump up by 80%, and is the major contributor for the decline of net margin to 1.09% from 4.11%. Return to assets and common equity followed on similar lines, falling to 3.62 and 8.83 respectively. These ratios measure the company's ability to turn investor's money into income profitably. The decline from last year's returns is large and hence reflects a relative decline in profitability of the company.

As the company suffered a drastic fall of 290% in profit after tax in FY09, the loss in fuel segment of Rs 2,699 million was transferred to special reserve as per the pricing formula. This reserve was created under the directives of Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources with effect from July 1, 2002. Refineries were directed to transfer to a 'Special Reserve', from their profit after tax attributable to fuel segment, an amount in excess of 50% of paid-up capital, as on July 1, 2002 attributable to fuel segment, to offset against any future losses or to make investment for expansion or upgradation. An amount of Rs 4.232 million was therefore available for appropriation.

LIQUIDITY

Current assets underwent a structural change as the company liquidated 95% of its investments. (2008: Rs 3,615 million, 2009: Rs 197 million) At the same time receivable (9% increase) and trade debts (46% increase) went up, which doesn't bode well for the future liquidity of the company. The growth of current ratio must be interpreted with caution but an assessment of quick acid test ratio shows an increase from 1.06 to 1.26. This shows NRL's improved ability to pay off its liabilities on time and comfortably manage unforeseen costs. However prudent measures should be implemented to monitor the receivables and to increase investments in near future.

ASSET MANAGEMENT

Asset turnover and equity turnover are maintained at approximately the same level in FY09 as last year's, indicating NRL's consistent efficiency of utilising its equity and assets for its operations.

Inventory turnover declined only slightly (FY09: 33.88, FY08: 34.63), after several years of sustained increases. Day sales outstanding registered a growth to 38 days from 25 days last year. The inability of debtors to pay is not surprising given the liquidity crunch, shrinking incomes and peaking inflation in the economy. However, it is risky for the company to extend receivables and increases probabilities of default. Consequently operating cycle also expands to 72 days from 59 days. Operating cycle measures the time period it takes the company to convert its expenditure on raw materials into cash from sales. Longer cycles indicate poor policy implementation to collect receivables in a timely fashion. NRL can potentially lose out its improving liquidity this way.

DEBT MANAGEMENT

Long-term debt of NRL is near to the ground and constitutes retirement obligations fund only, which declined by 57% in FY09. Zero long-term loans keep the company at a low risk position especially in times of high interest rates and uncertain economic conditions. Major financing comes through short-term debt. NRL had a strong interest paying ability until FY08 where it drastically fell down to 7.07 and further down in FY09 to 1.69. This decline came on the back of huge exchange rate losses due to depreciation of Pak rupee, which ballooned finance cost for the company.

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (PACRA) has maintained long-term rating and short-term entity ratings of Packages limited at "AAA" (triple AAA) and "A1+" respectively. These ratings denote a very low expectation of credit risk emanating from a very strong capacity for timely payments of financial commitments. The ratings reflect the company's demonstrated efficiency in the refinery industry of Pakistan. Also, the company has been consistent in maintaining its strong debt and interest-paying ability as compared to its competitors.

MARKET VALUE

Earnings per share registered a fall in FY09 at the back of 74% drop in profit after tax. This was augmented by low investors' confidence witnessed by the crash of KSE in the second half of 2008, reflected in decline of NRL share price. Despite this, the company maintained its ability to pay shareholders' dividend. Book value per share is sustained at over FY09.

COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 05, 2009, 10:23:56 AM
buy with stop at 180
current rate 184
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on November 05, 2009, 11:28:14 AM
buy with stop at 180
current rate 184

hit 190
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on November 07, 2009, 01:37:56 PM
National Refinery Limited (NRL)
NRL was the star performer within the sector depicting positive earnings during the quarter.
Company reported profit after tax of PKR678mn (EPS: PKR8.47) for 1QFY10 compared to the
loss after tax of PKR91mn (LPS: PKR1.14) in the corresponding period of last year. Positive
earnings during the quarter are primarily on the back of Lubes operations that posted earnings
of PKR10.43/share whereas, fuel section of the company incurred a loss of PKR1.96/share.

Going forward
Given the difficult times for the refinery sector, we believe any exposure to refineries should be
in favor of National Refinery Limited owing to its Lube business which is less sensitive to
refinery margins. Refinery margins have shown recovery since September 2009 due to which
we expect second quarter result to improve. Moreover, deemed duty issue is still pending and
any positive development in this regards can bring much respite for the refinery sector.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on November 20, 2009, 02:43:33 PM
buy nrl with stop at 181
currently at 188
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: abcd on November 22, 2009, 05:53:37 PM
buy nrl with stop at 181
currently at 188
the largest refinery of pak located in karachi that recieve crude brought from port or through large tanks from exploration sites in interior sind.There r two plants working round the clock in a day to refine crude and provide more than 35 products of oil and lubricant.Nrl is enjoying monoplotic markt condition in production of jp1 and l series of oil for aircrafts and helicopters.Nrl carries a dead to supply products to apl in order of preference.Nrl is focusing n spending more in adminstrative head beside spending heavy amount in procurement of material and stuff required for security as it is locted in densly populated n over saturated industrial area of karachi.An exclusive research by baba jee for pakinvestorsguide
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 22, 2009, 06:16:42 PM
buy nrl with stop at 181
currently at 188
the largest refinery of pak located in karachi that recieve crude brought from port or through large tanks from exploration sites in interior sind.There r two plants working round the clock in a day to refine crude and provide more than 35 products of oil and lubricant.Nrl is enjoying monoplotic markt condition in production of jp1 and l series of oil for aircrafts and helicopters.Nrl carries a dead to supply products to apl in order of preference.Nrl is focusing n spending more in adminstrative head beside spending heavy amount in procurement of material and stuff required for security as it is locted in densly populated n over saturated industrial area of karachi.An exclusive research by baba jee for pakinvestorsguide

thanx and keep sharing
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on December 04, 2009, 10:46:10 AM
GRM's improve QoQ; NRL goes positive

FY09 remained a dismal period for the refining industry with ATRL, PRL and NRL cumulatively recording a loss of PKR 2.66bn against inflated profits of PKR 10.11bn in FY08. The profitability of refineries plunged after the PKR depreciated by 14.4% against the USD in 1Q FY09 resulting in massive exchange rate losses for the respective companies. Also, gross refining margins (GRM's) shrunk after FOB prices of refined products fell more sharply than crude oil prices in 1H FY09 and remained sluggish after crude began to recover in 2H FY09.

Financial woes for refineries continued going into FY10, with the three companies again recording a cumulative loss of PKR 547mn in 1Q FY10 compared to a loss of PKR 2,261mn in the corresponding period last year. Although, their bottomline had improved 76% YoY in the absence of exchange rate losses, profitability stayed in the red as fundamental issues in the pricing mechanism became more apparent.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on December 04, 2009, 12:39:05 PM
Refineries: 5MFY10 production update

Based on provisional numbers, refinery production in
5MFY10 has witnessed a decline of 8%YoY.
Similarly, on a MoM basis, production in November
09 witnessed a fall of 6% and stood at around 650K
tons. Currently, we maintain a ‘Market Weight’ stance
on the sector and a ‘Buy’ recommendation on
National Refinery (NRL).
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on December 18, 2009, 11:28:40 AM
Refineries: 2QFY10 earnings outlook

With 24% underperformance in 1HFY10 against KSE-100 index, we turn Neutral on refining sector from Underweight and highlight (1) upgrade in deemed duty on diesel and (2) relief on inter-corporate debt as key triggers. Trading at 0.7x FY10E P/BV, NRL remains our top pick in the sector.

We revisit our sensitivity analysis of a 2.5% increase in deemed duty and estimate 30-80% (low base effect included) earnings upside for FY11E. Weak financial performance and balance sheets have made the case for upgrade in margins on diesel and gasoline more plausible, in our view.

We estimate 2QFY10 earnings for NRL and ATRL at PRs7.3/sh and PRs4.2/sh respectively. We calculate loss/sh of PRs1.05 for PRL. 50-70% QoQ jump in GRMs is the key driver of earnings improvement in 2QFY10.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on December 21, 2009, 04:50:24 PM
bought nrl today with stop below 180
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Toshi on December 21, 2009, 11:57:15 PM
bought nrl today with stop below 180

But trend has not been established yet,infact sideway downtrend.
wil be better to sell on strength i think.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on December 22, 2009, 01:42:41 PM
bought nrl today with stop below 180

But trend has not been established yet,infact sideway downtrend.
wil be better to sell on strength i think.

sold some on strength and rest hit the stop
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on December 29, 2009, 12:19:34 PM
bm by 16th feb
expected eps 15
target 200
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on January 11, 2010, 12:39:18 PM
buy nrl with stop at 174
current rate 177.5
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on January 13, 2010, 10:28:22 AM
buy nrl with stop at 174
current rate 177.5

183  ::)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Mansoor1 on January 13, 2010, 11:17:57 AM
buy nrl with stop at 174
current rate 177.5

 :letsparty:
Great Call Farzooq bhai.... NRL CAP. :goodpost:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Karuli on January 13, 2010, 11:23:31 AM
Well call Farzooq bhai again cap
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Toshi on January 13, 2010, 12:52:15 PM
Recommendation - ‘Hold’ NRL
Investcap
In recent times, petroleum product price mechanism has been scrutinized by the gov’t under the instruction of apex court. However, gov’t efforts have not  yielded any concrete results as the stakeholders involved have not agreed to any amicable solution and thus, most of the speculation in this regard arises from news reports. We believe that any change in the pricing formula would have an impact on future profitability of the company, however it would be premature to determine the impact of the expected change. In light of the reduced GRMs and ambiguity with respect to the pricing mechanism, we reiterate a 'Neutral' stance on the sector with recommending 'Hold' on NRL. (Jun-10 TP of Rs195/share)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on January 14, 2010, 10:39:55 PM
Well call Farzooq bhai again cap

When to sell farooq bhai.  :(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on January 15, 2010, 12:09:03 AM
Well call Farzooq bhai again cap

When to sell farooq bhai.  :(

very strange behaviour of nrl today
very high volumes and ended negative
hold with stop 174
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on January 15, 2010, 10:45:14 AM

Looks like the new oil pricing formula finalised is negative for refineries

http://pakinvestorsguide.com/index.php/topic,422.msg14403.html#msg14403
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on January 15, 2010, 02:09:27 PM
Nrl ne maar dala.  :ohmygod1:   :headonwall:  :helpsign: :(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kse_karachi on January 18, 2010, 10:48:27 AM
Farzzoq bhai what do u say at which price should one enter into NRL
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on January 18, 2010, 11:12:35 AM
Farzzoq bhai what do u say at which price should one enter into NRL

buy on dip with stop 174 or below 172
current rate 177.5
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on January 21, 2010, 12:23:34 PM
what is the suggestion now.
average kiya jaye ya wait and see.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Admin on January 22, 2010, 12:28:45 PM
NRL: Further downside to open valuation
by kasb

While final shape of new ex-refinery pricing formula is yet to emerge, we see three upshots of any acceptable formula to the industry (1) improvement in existing formula; (2) future improvement will be subject to tangible progress on refinery up- gradation/expansion; and (3) limited possibility of reduction in consumer prices without cut in government taxes.

Looking at the available details on the govt. proposed formula, we believe refineries will face significant earnings erosion and hence the formula is not viable, in our view. Similarly, industry demands to raise deemed duty, improve pricing for gasoline and incentives for further expansion are optimistic. We expect stakeholders to settle on some middle ground.

We think refining stock prices are beginning to incorporate the downside risk. In relative terms, National Refinery Ltd should do well under the govt. proposed formula with estimated FY11E earnings of PRs27/sh (P/E of 6.3x). We believe any further downside in stock price will open up valuation
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Learner7 on February 08, 2010, 08:57:08 PM
National Refinery Limited - Financial And Strategic Analysis Review - New Report Published

Newly released report, National Refinery Limited - Financial and Strategic Analysis Review, provides detailed company analysis

Published on February 08, 2010

by Press Office

(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)

LONDON, ENGLAND


Summary

National Refinery Limited - Financial and Strategic Analysis Review is an in-depth business, strategic and financial analysis of National Refinery Limited. The report provides a comprehensive insight into the company, including business structure and operations, executive biographies and key competitors. The hallmark of the report is the detailed strategic analysis of the company. This highlights its strengths and weaknesses and the opportunities and threats it faces going forward.

National Refinery Limited (National Refinery) is a downstream energy company. It is engaged in refining of crude oil and processing of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The company's refinery is located in Karachi. The company offered products include fuel products, lube base oils, asphalt and specialty products. The company's products are sold in the domestic market as well as export to global market. The company's majority shareholder is the Attock Oil Group, which holds 51% stake in the company. The company is headquartered in Karachi, Pakistan.

Recent Developments

Apr 16, 2009: National Refinery Reports Net Sales Of PKR20.3 Billion For Q3 Fiscal 2008/09
Feb 14, 2009: NRL Reports Net Sales Of PKR23.7 Billion For Q2 Fiscal 2008/09

Scope

- Provides key company information for business intelligence needs
- The company's strengths and weaknesses and areas of development or decline are analyzed. Financial, strategic and operational factors are considered.
- The opportunities open to the company are considered and its growth potential assessed. Competitive or technological threats are highlighted.
- The report contains critical company information - business structure and operations, the company history, major products and services, key competitors, key employees and executive biographies, different locations and important subsidiaries.
- The report provides detailed financial ratios for the past five years as well as interim ratios for the last four quarters.
- Financial ratios include profitability, margins and returns, liquidity and leverage, financial position and efficiency ratios.

Reasons to buy

- A quick one-stop-shop to understand the company.
- Enhance business/sales activities by understanding customers' businesses better.
- Get detailed information and financial & strategic analysis on companies operating in your industry.
- Identify prospective partners and suppliers - with key data on their businesses and locations.
- Capitalize on competitors' weaknesses and target the market opportunities available to them.
- Compare your company's financial trends with those of your peers / competitors.
- Scout for potential acquisition targets, with detailed insight into the companies' strategic, financial and operational performance.

http://www.officialwire.com/main.php?action=posted_news&rid=93346
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 09, 2010, 03:52:48 PM
eps 14.43
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2010, 09:26:49 AM
NRL posts Rs 1,153.725 million profit after tax
RECORDER REPORT
KARACHI (February 10 2010): National Refinery Limited (NRL) has posted Rs 1,153.725 million as profit after tax in the half year period ended December 31, 2009 as compared to after tax loss of Rs 793.300 million recorded in the corresponding period in 2008. The board of directors of the company in its meeting held at Damascus, Syria on Tuesday declared per share earning of the company at Rs 14.43 in the period under review against per share loss of Rs 9.92 in the same period a year back.

On quarterly basis, the company's profit after tax stood at Rs 476.161 million translating an earning per share of Rs 5.95 in the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to after tax loss of Rs 702.116 million with per share loss of Rs 8.78 in the same quarter in 2008.

According to the financial results, the company's gross sales declined to Rs 59.785 billion in the half year period in 2009 against Rs 80.336 in the same period in 2008. Trade discounts, taxes, duties and levies declined to Rs 11.669 billion in this period against Rs 13.156 billion previously.

The company's cost of product sold declined to Rs 45.860 billion in the half year period against Rs 65.761 billion in the same period a year back. The company registered before tax profit of Rs 1,832.816 million in the half year period in 2009 against before tax loss of Rs 719.033 million recorded in the same period in 2008
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on February 10, 2010, 11:42:56 AM
good eps .
is rate per buy banti hai.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2010, 11:45:18 AM
Refineries: NRL - Lubes Steal the Show
   NRL announced its 1HFY10 financial results yesterday, posting PAT of PKR1,154mn (EPS: PKR14.43) compared to a loss of PKR793mn (LPS: PKR9.92) for 1HFY09

   For 2QFY10, NRL reported PAT of PKR476mn (EPS: PKR5.95) translating into a QoQ decline of 30%; however the result showed a major improvement when compared to a loss of PKR702mn (LPS: PKR8.78) reported in 2QFY09

   The YoY improvement came on the back of modest inventory gains (compared to huge inventory losses posted in FY09) and lower financial charges/exchange losses

   Lower GRMs are expected to have kept fuel operations in losses while the bottomline for the company is projected to have been supported by lubes

   Though we maintain an Underweight stance on refineries, recent modest recovery in GRMs and possibility of a favorable resolution on pricing regulation bodes well for the sector

   Moreover for NRL, recent massive underperformance and unique exposure to lubes warrant the stock to be kept under radar
 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2010, 11:48:26 AM
NRL - Financial Results 1H FY10

National Refinery Limited (NRL) announced its financial results for 2Q FY10 yesterday. The company recorded a PAT of PKR 476.16mn and an EPS of PKR 5.95 compared to LAT of 702.12mn in the corresponding period last year. The company's half year earnings add up to PKR 1.15bn and an EPS of PKR 14.42.

Outlook

Currently the stock is trading at PKR 174.02 per share with a trailing PE of 4x. We believe that the market has attached a significant discount to the refining sector and NRL because of uncertainty regarding the sectors liquidity and pricing concerns. However, we expect NRL to stand out amongst its peers due to i) its favorable product mix and consequently encouraging GRM's and ii) its non-energy products which contribute 17% to the company's total throughput. Moving forward, refineries are lobbying for changes in the oil pricing mechanism; if successful, we believe it may act as a positive catalyst for the entire sector.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2010, 12:42:51 PM
Refineries: 7MFY10 production update

Based on provisional figures, refinery production in
7MFY10 has witnessed a decline of 7%YoY.
Similarly, on a MoM basis, production in January
2010 fell by 6% and stood at around 652K tons.
Currently, we maintain a ‘Market Weight’ stance on
the sector and a ‘Buy’ recommendation on National
Refinery (NRL).
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on February 10, 2010, 01:05:17 PM
laoOo NRL.........;d
 :goodl:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on February 12, 2010, 03:31:44 PM
starts flying....... :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Toshi on March 11, 2010, 11:22:26 PM
(http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab251/Toshiali/nrl.png)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: myway on March 20, 2010, 05:57:02 PM
buy buy buy
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: 007 on March 20, 2010, 06:05:24 PM
why why why

 :khikhi:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: myway on March 20, 2010, 06:14:43 PM
why why why

 :khikhi:

good results to come
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: 007 on March 20, 2010, 08:19:30 PM
yeah very right sir

just checked out its eps it seems a good buy at these levels  :speak_cool:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 25, 2010, 01:00:58 PM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rehman11 on March 25, 2010, 01:19:55 PM
I M AGREE WITH U  :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: myway on March 25, 2010, 07:36:29 PM
why why why

 :khikhi:

good results to come

buy buy buy
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 26, 2010, 03:04:03 PM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

178  :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: malikejaz on March 29, 2010, 11:11:51 AM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

178  :shoaby:
Any time frame for the target?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 29, 2010, 11:18:29 AM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

178  :shoaby:
Any time frame for the target?

annual result july august
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Toshi on March 29, 2010, 11:28:13 AM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

178  :shoaby:
Any time frame for the target?

annual result july august

 :goodc:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Kid on March 30, 2010, 11:13:21 AM
Farzooq Bhai,

Thanks for suggesting NRL yesterday. What is its target price....?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 30, 2010, 11:19:50 AM
upper locked 183
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 30, 2010, 11:38:24 AM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

Farzooq Bhai,

Thanks for suggesting NRL yesterday. What is its target price....?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 31, 2010, 12:21:51 PM

descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

190  :banana:


Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: malikejaz on March 31, 2010, 12:27:18 PM

descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

190  :banana:



:speak_cool:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on March 31, 2010, 10:03:26 PM

descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

190  :banana:



:speak_cool:

180  :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on April 06, 2010, 11:00:41 PM
185  :biggthumpup:

farooq bhai hold or sell.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ihashishin on April 08, 2010, 04:04:07 PM
been meaning to buy this for a couple of days but didnt have the liquidity finally bought some today  :fingerscrossed1:

stoploss@179
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Toshi on April 08, 2010, 04:08:28 PM
been meaning to buy this for a couple of days but didnt have the liquidity finally bought some today  :fingerscrossed1:

stoploss@179

good buy.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ihashishin on April 09, 2010, 02:43:43 PM
been meaning to buy this for a couple of days but didnt have the liquidity finally bought some today  :fingerscrossed1:

stoploss@179

if it closes above 190.25 = break out :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 09, 2010, 03:24:53 PM
been meaning to buy this for a couple of days but didnt have the liquidity finally bought some today  :fingerscrossed1:

stoploss@179

if it closes above 190.25 = break out :fingerscrossed1:

194  :goodc:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ihashishin on April 09, 2010, 04:17:49 PM
been meaning to buy this for a couple of days but didnt have the liquidity finally bought some today  :fingerscrossed1:

stoploss@179

if it closes above 190.25 = break out :fingerscrossed1:

194  :goodc:


 :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 16, 2010, 01:01:15 PM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

achieved its target of 200 today  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ihashishin on April 16, 2010, 03:44:04 PM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

achieved its target of 200 today  :biggthumpup:

nice  :goodc:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on April 16, 2010, 04:31:45 PM
descending triangle breakout
buy with target of 200+

achieved its target of 200 today  :biggthumpup:

nice  :goodc:
:shock:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 20, 2010, 01:58:05 PM
eps 24.6
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ihashishin on April 21, 2010, 01:56:20 PM
adding under 190
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on April 26, 2010, 11:12:20 AM
eps 24.6
what is the recommendation for nrl at current rates.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: M&M on May 03, 2010, 01:47:24 PM
Refinery: National Refinery Limited Analysis of Financial Statements Financial Year 2008 - 2001 H 2010

National Refinery Limited (NRL) was incorporated on August 19, 1963 as a public limited company. Government of Pakistan took over the management control of NRL under the Economic Reforms Order, 1972 under the Ministry of Production, which was exercising control through its shareholding in State Petroleum Refining and Petrochemical Corporation (PERAC). The government had decided to place the National Refinery Limited under the administrative control of Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources in November 1998.

In June 2003, the government decided to include NRL in its privatisation programme. The selling of 51% equity and transfer of management control to a strategic investor had been proposed accordingly, the due diligence process for the privatisation was initiated. After competitive bidding, NRL was acquired by Attock Oil Group in July 2005.

The company has been privatised and the management control handed over to the new owner (Attock Oil Group) on July 7, 2005.

The company's principal activity is to manufacture and supply fuel products, lubes, BTX asphalts and specialty products. It operates in two segments: Fuel and lube. The fuel segment is a diverse supplier of fuel products and offers gasoline, diesel oils, kerosene and furnace oil. The Lube segment provides different types of lube-based oils, asphalt and wax-free oil for different sectors of the economy.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

There are 5 refineries currently existing in Pakistan which are:

1. PARCO; production 100,000 barrels per day equivalent to 4.5 million tons

2. NRL; production 65,000 barrels per day equivalent to 2.8 million tons

3. PRL; production 50,000 barrels per day equivalent to 2.2 million tons

4. ARL; production 40,000 barrels per day equivalent to 1.8 million tons

5. BOSICOR; production barrels per day equivalent to 1.5 million tons

Current crude production of Pakistan is 65,000 to 67,000 barrels per day and total capacity of the refineries is 285,000 barrels per day or 12 million tons hence 22,0000 barrels per day are imported.

CURRENT RESULT 1H10

During the period July-December 2009, total refinery industry figures increased by 15% with the highest increases notable in the sales of Motor Spirit (MS) and JP-1. Kerosene and Light Diesel Oil (LDO) appeared to be the losing categories, registering a decline in sales of 15% and 13% respectively.

NRL earned a profit after tax of Rs 1,154 million during the 1H10 as compared to loss after tax of Rs 793 million during corresponding period of last year that is 1H09. Lube segment earned profit after tax of Rs 1,631 million compared to Rs 2,235 million in the corresponding period. However, the fuel segment faced loss after tax of Rs 478 million compared to loss of Rs 3,028 million during corresponding period of last year. Except for the month of September, profitability persistently remained under pressure during the 1H10.

Operating profit margin stood at 4.27% for 1H10, which is a remarkable turnaround as the company had registered a loss of Rs 723 million for the corresponding period last year. Distribution cost for the period 1H10 rose only marginally. Further boost to the bottom line came from declining financial charges by 89%. These financial charges comprised mainly of the exchange losses of Rs 245 million (2008: Rs 2.22 million).

Price of crude oil continued to fluctuate between US $61.92 and US $80.10 during 1H10. This resulted in fragile product prices and unfavorable margins especially in the fuel segment. Prices of lube base oils remained relatively stable. However, the margins were reduced due to unsteady feed cost price. Other factors for fuel segment losses were crude oil prices marginally higher than product selling prices, depreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar and unfavorable pricing structure of high speed diesel and motor gasoline.

The issue of circular debt could not be resolved during these six months as well and resultantly the fuel segment had to face liquidity problems on account of outstanding amounts. The government took some steps for its resolution, nevertheless the matter largely remained un-addressed. NRL had scheduled shut down for maintenance of fuel segment in most part of July 2009. Resultantly, refinery operated at 77% of the capacity compared with 89% of capacity during the same period last year. Scheduled downtime of Lube-II refinery was also undertaken for 22 days starting from 15 December 2009.

FINANCIAL RESULTS OF FY09

FY09 proved to be full of challenges for the oil refineries and distributors sector. Declining crude oil prices and changing price structure of high-speed diesel and motor gasoline adversely affected the gross refining margin of fuel segment. The depreciation of rupee against the dollar further aggravated the scenario, resulting in heavy losses.

The profit making ability of the company is closely linked to the international oil market. The economic recession of 2008 brought with it plummeting oil prices, with the Arabian light hitting a record all-time low of US $40 per BBL in November 2008. Asymmetric prices of company's product went drastically down as a result and eroded the profitability. The outgoing quarter NRL managed to book a recovery in terms of inventory gains as oil prices picked up a gradual climb. However, lower GRM masked this upside.

The situation was compounded by drastic exchange rate depreciation of Pak rupee against the US dollar, resulting in a loss of Rs 2,385 million.

In addition to this, the Government revised the Pricing Formula in August 2008 by cutting down deemed duty on HSD from 10% to 7.5% and also revised Motor Gasoline pricing mechanism that further lowered down refiners' margins. Circular debt in the Power and Oil Sector not only slowed down economic activity but also severely affected the refineries of Pakistan. Consequently overall banking and investments have reduced significantly.

A continuous and vigilant checking by the management ensured that the refinery was operated at its optimum throughput in order to curtail losses of fuel segment in periods of negative margins. However, due to adverse margins the profitability of the fuel segment ended at after tax loss of Rs 2,699 million in FY09 compared to profit after tax of Rs 3,064 million in FY08.

In lube segment the demand remained depressed due to slower economic activity in the country and abroad. Declining price trend kept the customers away from routine buying. The company emerged with a profit after tax of Rs 1,533 million as compared to Rs 6,005 million in the last financial period.

PROFITABILITY

As mentioned earlier, the industry's profitability is directly related to the international oil prices since a major chunk of local demand is fulfilled through import of crude oil. Other major drivers for industry include demand and consumption pattern. During the past years demand and consumption pattern also witnessed a major change. While the demand of motor gasoline experienced a decline due to increase used of CNG and LPG, furnace oil demand depressed due to conversion to gas and coal based plants by sector like cement.

In FY09, NRL's profitability declined considerably in the absence of windfall gains it had received in the previous years due to inflating crude oil prices. Gross Profit Margin declined by 49%, attributable to fall in net sales of almost 15%. Exchange rate loss caused finance cost to jump up by 80%, and is the major contributor for the decline of net margin to 1.09% from 4.11%. Return to Assets and Common Equity followed on similar lines, falling to 3.62 and 8.83 respectively. These ratios measure the company's ability to turn investor's money into income profitably. The decline from last year's returns is large and hence reflects a relative decline in profitability of the company.

As the company suffered a drastic fall of 290% in profit after tax in FY09, the loss in fuel segment of Rs 2,699 million was transferred to Special Reserve as per the Pricing Formula. This Reserve was created under the directives of Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources with effect from July 1, 2002. The refineries were directed to transfer to a 'Special Reserve', from their profit after tax attributable to fuel segment an amount in excess of 50% of paid-up capital, as on July 1, 2002 attributable to fuel segment, to offset against any future losses or to make investment for expansion or upgradation. An amount Rs 4.232 million was therefore available for appropriation.

LIQUIDITY

Current assets underwent a structural change as the company liquidated 95% of its investments. (2008: Rs 3,615 million, 2009: Rs 197 million) At the same time receivable (9% increase) and trade debts (46% increase) went up, which doesn't bode well for the future liquidity of the company. The growth of current ratio must be interpreted with caution but an assessment of quick acid test ratio shows an increase from 1.06 to 1.26. This shows NRL's improved ability to pay off its liabilities on time and comfortably manage unforeseen costs. However prudent measures should be implemented to monitor the receivables and to increase investments in near future.

ASSET MANAGEMENT

Asset Turnover and Equity Turnover are maintained at approximately the same level in FY09 as last year's, indicating NRL's consistent efficiency of utilizing its equity and assets for its operations.

Inventory turnover declined only slightly (FY09: 33.88, FY08: 34.63), after several years of sustained increases. Day sales outstanding registered a growth to 38 days from 25 days last year. The inability of debtors to pay is not surprising given the liquidity crunch, shrinking incomes and rising inflation in the economy. However, it is risky for the company to extend receivables and increases probabilities of default. Consequently operating cycle also expands to 72 days from 59 days. Operating cycle measures the time period it takes the company to convert its expenditure on raw materials into cash from sales. Longer cycles indicate poor policy implementation to collect receivables in a timely fashion. NRL can potentially lose out its improving liquidity this way.

DEBT MANAGEMENT

Long-term debt of NRL is near to the ground and constitutes retirement obligations fund only, which declined by 57% in FY09. Zero long-term loans keep the company at a low risk position especially in times of high interest rates and uncertain economic conditions. Major financing comes through short-term debt. NRL had a strong interest paying ability until FY08 where it drastically fell down to 7.07 and further down in FY09 to 1.69. This decline came on the back of huge exchange rate losses due to depreciation of the rupee, which ballooned the finance cost for the company.

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (PACRA) has maintained long-term rating and short-term entity ratings of the company at "AAA" (triple AAA) and "A1+" respectively. These ratings denote a very low expectation of credit risk emanating from a very strong capacity for timely payments of financial commitments. The ratings reflect the company's demonstrated efficiency in the refinery industry of Pakistan. Also, the company has been consistent in maintaining its strong debt and interest-paying ability as compared to its competitors.

MARKET VALUE

Earnings per share registered a fall in FY09 at the back of 74% drop in profit after tax. This was augmented by low investors' confidence witnessed by the crash of KSE in the second half of 2008, reflected in decline of NRL share price. Despite this, the company maintained its ability to pay shareholders' dividend. Book value per share is sustained at over FY09.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

Currently the company stands with a Price Earnings ratio of 4x. Concerns regarding circular debt and pricing have plagued the refining industry for quite some time now. However, NRL's position appears favourable among its competitors as it has a diverse product mix to offer to the market and hence the potential to attract profitable Global Refining Margins. Currently the refineries are pushing forward for a favorable change in oil pricing system; if this follows through it will change the outlook of the sector for better.

COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi,

Source:
http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1052193&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 14, 2010, 09:53:37 AM
In today's Value Seeker, we present an update on National Refinery Limited (NRL) 9MFY10
results along with company’s outlook and our recommendation.

Lube segment staying strong
NRL posted a PAT of Rs813mn (EPS: Rs10.17) in 3QFY10 (down 51% YoY), translating into a
9MFY10 earning of Rs1,967mn (EPS: Rs24.60), up by a massive 130% YoY. The extraordinary
surge in 9MFY10 earning was primarily on account of the company's lube segment as
company's refinery operation continued to face adverse operating environment
(particularly in 1HFY10). Although HSFO and naphtha to spread improved by a massive 28%
YoY and 218% YoY respectively, it was not sufficient to pull NRL's core-refinery GRMs into
positive. As per our estimates, company's core-refinery GRMs stood in the negative at
USD0.67/bbl during 9MFY10, with reduced spreads on Kero and Mogas (down 71% YoY and
68% YoY, respectively) eroding improved spreads on HSFO and Naphtha, Despite the said,
company was able to sustain its overall gross margins at 4.8%, benefiting from pricing
power and stable environment of the lube business.

Refinery Business coming to green in 3QFY10
Moreover, 3QFY10 numbers reveal that all is not lost for company's refinery operations. The
company's refinery operation came into green posting a segment PAT of Rs131mn (EPS
Rs1.63), while reducing segment overall loss to Rs346mn (LPS Rs4.3). The improvement is on
account of improved GRMs in the 3QFY10, which rose into green to stand at USD0.95/bbl.
While company's lube posted a PAT of Rs682mn (EPS Rs8.53) in 3QFY10, translating into PAT
of Rs2,313mn (EPS: Rs28.9).

Subdued financial cost
Another important factor improving the bottomline was subdued finance cost. NRL's
financial cost ballooned to Rs2,391bn(Rs19.44/share after tax) in 9MFY10 due to abrupt PKR
depreciation against USD. On the flipside, the company's other income reduced by 10%
YoY to Rs919mn on account of average reduced cash balance of the company during this
period. We believe that reduced cash balance of the company is on account of adverse

GRMs rather than circular debt.
Recommendation - 'Buy' NRL with Dec-10 TP of Rs220/share
We estimate company's Apr-10 and May-10 core-refinery GRMs to stand at USD1.93/bbl
and USD0.86/bbl respectively. Furthermore, with the reduction in the crude oil prices on
account of euro-zone crisis, we expect the spread of the POL products to improve in the
coming month. As a result, we expect company's GRMs to stand at USD1.5/bbl in the
4QFY10. Furthermore, with the inherit strength of company's lube business we have revised
our FY10 earring forecast to Rs33.24/sh (up by 30% from our previous estimate), while keeping
our FY11 and onwards assumption intact. Subsequently, we have revised our Jun-10 TP and
rolled it forward o Dec-10 at Rs220/share. Currently, trading at a P/E multiple of 5.5x (FY10E)
and offering an upside of 20% from our Dec-10 TP we, recommend a 'Buy; on the scrip.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 20, 2010, 01:48:03 PM
attractive below 180
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on July 06, 2010, 03:01:41 PM
Listed Refineries’ GRMs an unchanged story; NRL and ATRL amongst the lead
Amongst the listed refineries, GRM for NRL averaged USD5.6/bbl (down 18% MoM, up 0.7% from 4QFY10 average) in Jun?10, while that
for ATRL averaged USD4.1/bbl (down 19% MoM, up 0.5% from 4QFY10 average). For PRL, Jun?10 GRM at USD1.8/bbl, down 41% MoM,
was still 7% higher than 4QFY10 average of USD 1.7/bbl.

FY10 underperformance have created room for superior returns
While rebound in earnings after 2008 oil price decline helped refining sector yield massive returns during the first six months of the post
floor regime (refining stocks up 104% against 24% gain in KSE?100 during 2HFY09), FY10 has been largely a dull year characterized by
thinning margins, cash flow concerns, expectations of regulatory boon turning into potential risks (expectation of deemed duty increase in
early FY10 changed to fears of duty cut towards its end). As a result, refineries underperformed KSE?100 by 60% in FY10. We understand
that current strong GRMs, coupled with sequential improvement in earnings shall create space for strong performance ahead. We
specifically like NRL, with strong expected full year FY10 earnings at PKR39.2/share as a key trigger.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 04, 2010, 01:08:51 PM
FY11 has started on a healthy note with Gross Refining Margin (GRM) for Pakistan’s refining
industry averaging USD3.8/bbl during 1QFY11 (Jun?Aug margins determine 1QFY11
profitability). While witnessing 10% QoQ trimming in GRM, 1QFY11 was the second best
quarter in the last 1.5 years for Pakistan refiners. Listed refiners’ margins witnessed 10%?16%
QoQ attrition in 1QFY11, with GRMs clocking in at USD5.0, USD1.4, and USD3.5 per bbl
respectively for NRL, PRL and ATRL. Amongst products, HSD saw 10% QoQ widening in spreads
(without duties), however, net of duty impact, HSD spread fell 0.5% QoQ. HSFO helped GRMs
with a 6% attrition in its loss over crude. Amongst other products, Naphtha & Mogas witnessed
QoQ declines, whereas spreads expanded for Kero, JP1 and LDO. With driving season
approaching its end, minimal risk of supply disruptions and ample stocks, product markets
could weaken in the coming months, suggesting likelihood of near?term weakening in GRMs.
We however reiterate our likeness for NRL, primarily due to its robust lube business, which
trades at FY10/11 P/E of 5.0x / 4.2x respectively
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 28, 2010, 10:39:46 PM
NRL to post EPS of Rs36.67 in FY10
National Refinery Limited (NRL) is set to announce it financial result for FY10 on 29 Aug-10.
We expect the company to post a PAT of Rs966mn (EPS Rs12.08), up 42% YoY, translating in
to full year earnings of Rs2,933mn (EPS Rs36.67), up 91% YoY. Due to adverse price
movements of international oil prices, company's core-refinery operations remained under
stress, posting a LPS of Rs2,482mn (LPS Rs4.33) during 9MFY10. However, we expect company's
refinery operation to fare better in the 4QFY10, depicted by improved gross refinery margins
(GRMs). As per our estimates, company's 4QFY10 core-refinery GRMs stood at USD1.98/bbl
as compared to -USD0.14/bbl in 9MFY10, rendering into FY10 GRM of USD0.51/bbl. In addition,
company's lube operation that till far has been company's savoir in FY10, will continue to
add further strengthen to company's profitability. Consequently, we expect company's
gross margins to stand at 5.1pps in 4QFY10 as against 5.0pps in 4QFY09 and 4.8pps in 9MFY10.
In addition to improved gross profit, another factor that will add strengthen to company's
bottomline is FY10 is reduced financial charges. Due to sharp depreciation of PKR against
the USD, particularly in 1QFY09 when PKR slid by 14.39% against the greenback, company's
financial charges sky-rocketed to Rs1,887mn (Rs15.65/share after-tax). However, we expect
company's financial charges to revert back to normality, to stand at Rs222mn in FY10, down
91% YoY. Company's other income is expected to decline by a modest 2% YoY. Furthermore,
we expect a dividend announcement of Rs16/sh to accompany the corporate result.
Based on our Dec-10 TP of Rs226/share, we recommend a 'Buy' on the scrip.

INVESTCAP
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 29, 2010, 11:47:43 AM
Refinery: NRL - FY10E EPS of PKR36.5
   NRL is scheduled to announce its FY10 result on Wednesday, September 29, 2010; we expect the company to post PAT of PKR2.92bn (EPS: PKR36.5), up 90% from PAT of PKR1.53bn (EPS: PKR19.2) for FY09

   For 4QFY10, we expect NRL to post PAT of PKR953mn (EPS: PKR11.9), compared to PAT of PKR679mn for the corresponding period last year

   We also expect the company to announce final cash DPS of PKR17.5

   Tax could be a surprise element due to the applicability of 1% turnover tax; we have incorporated a 42% effective tax rate for 4Q on the back of possible expensing out of deferred tax asset

   We maintain an Underweight stance on the sector; however we have selective long term BUY call on NRL (due to its highly profitable lube operations). Based on last closing price, NRL reflects FY11E PER of 4.3x and provides 16.8% upside to our DCF based fair value of PKR230/share
 
BMA
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 30, 2010, 09:32:51 AM

eps 41 dps 20
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ::WASIF:: on September 30, 2010, 03:27:10 PM
Farooq bahi and other members plz suggest me to invest at this level is considered good for short term mean to say 1 year or less.

what is future of this company, is there any chances that this company will also looking for survive and in struggle like the other refineries are suffering at this time. 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 30, 2010, 03:41:13 PM
Farooq bahi and other members plz suggest me to invest at this level is considered good for short term mean to say 1 year or less.

what is future of this company, is there any chances that this company will also looking for survive and in struggle like the other refineries are suffering at this time. 

nrl will remain in profits due to it lube business
which makes it different from other refineries
nrl should be part of ones portfolio
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ::WASIF:: on September 30, 2010, 04:25:09 PM
thank u so so much
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 04, 2010, 11:32:07 AM
spot from 12-15
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 11, 2010, 11:32:50 AM
Refinery: NRL - Better Utilization to Compensate for Tapering GRMs

   NRL recently announced upbeat results for FY10 – the performance being better than our expectations has resulted in stock price rally of 6.4% since then

   The main thrust came from better GRMs with gross margin for the company rising to 7.8% during 4QFY10 from 4.8% recorded during preceding 9M

   For 1QFY11 we expect slight seasonal pressure on GRMs, which will be compensated by higher utilization rate of ~90% over 2MFY11 compared to ~80% over FY10, due to closure of PARCO. Moreover higher demand of Asphalt backed by post flood infrastructure rebuilding activity will push margins on Asphalt further upward and generate extra profits for the company

   We currently have an ADD stance on NRL with last closing price reflecting 7% upside to our DCF based fair value of PKR230/share
 
BMA
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 12, 2010, 06:45:58 PM
Strong earnings in FY10; likely to continue: NRL posted profit after tax of PKR3.3bn in FY10
(EPS: PKR41.08), up 114% YoY and announced final DPS of PKR20. While 4QFY10 EPS at
PKR16.48, up 62% QoQ looks impressive, we eye likely continuation of strong earnings in
1QFY11.
Volumes drove positive lube surprise in 4QFY10: NRL sold 206ktons of base oils during FY10,
against production of 190ktons, thus managing to sell down inventory, bulk of which occurred
during 4Q, as per our estimates. 4QFY10 lube revenues up 46% QoQ amid 14% QoQ increase
in base oil prices indicate 28% QoQ growth in base oil volumes.
Higher finance cost & inventory write downs dampened fuel earnings in 4Q: Fuel segment
posted LPS of PKR4.5 in 4QFY10, primarily due to inventory write downs (PKR2.8/share) and
higher finance cost (PKR2.8/share).
Marginal reduction in GRM in 1QFY11; Lube EPS to remain robust: While 1QFY11 GRM at
USD5.0/bbl for NRL was down a mere USD0.5/bbl QoQ, the negativity is likely to be more than
offset by absence of finance cost which dented 4QFY10 earnings. Base oil margins would
sustain, helped by full period impact of 4Q price increase, though Lube EPS shall face QoQ
attrition due to lower volumetric sales in 1QFY11.
Earnings to remain strong; BUY: Likely continuation of strong earnings could further up share
price momentum. The scrip trades at FY11E PER of 4.5x, FY11E Dividend yield of 11% and
offers an upside of 27% to our June?2011 Price Target of PKR280/share. BUY!

Elixir
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dhillon on October 26, 2010, 12:53:25 PM
NRL expected to post PAT of Rs1.3bn (EPS Rs16.14) in 1QFY11

We expect National Refinery Limited (NRL) to post a PAT of Rs1.3bn (EPS Rs16.14) in 1QFY11 which would be a significant improvement of 87% YoY. The said increase is chiefly on account of company's improved Gross Refinery Margins, that are expected to stand at USD1.65/bbl (2.21%) as opposed to negative USD1.49/bbl (-2.11%) in 1QFY10. The changed scenario will augment profitability of company's lube business, where it will enjoy a superior position as regards to sector's competitive dynamics. Overall, we expect company's gross margin to stand at 7.1% as compared to 6.2% registered in the corresponding period last year. This along with favorable volumetric variance (refinery operating at ~100% capacity as against curtailed operation at ~70% last year) will trickle down to improved bottomline. Company's other income and financial charges are expected to register an increase of 27% and 24% YoY. In line with the historical trend, we expect no dividend announcement to accompany the 1QFY11 corporate result. At current levels, we recommend 'Buy' on the scrip with our Jun-11TP of Rs288/share.

Investcap
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 26, 2010, 03:59:18 PM
Refinery: NRL - 1QFY11E EPS of PKR17.1
   NRL is scheduled to announce its 1QFY11 result on Wednesday, October 27, 2010; we expect the company to post PAT of PKR1.37bn (EPS: PKR17.1), up 102% from PAT of PKR678mn (EPS: PKR8.5) for 1QFY10

   We have a NEUTRAL stance on NRL. Based on last closing price, NRL reflects FY11E PER of 3.6x and provides 4% upside to our DCF based fair value of PKR230/share
 
BMA
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 27, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
Eps 16.87
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dhillon on October 28, 2010, 09:56:27 AM
KARACHI: National Refinery Limited (NRL) has announced robust financial, said a notice issued to Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) here on Wednesday. During the first three months of fiscal year 2010-11, NRL’s after tax profit jumped to Rs1,349 million against Rs678 million, a huge increase of 99 per cent. The earning per share also almost doubled to Rs16.87 as against Rs8.47 in 1QFY10.

Sales revenue increased by 67 per cent from Rs19.98 billion to Rs33.39 billion in the period under review. Similarly, gross profit increased to Rs2.31 billion as against Rs1.24 billion in the same period last year.  Gross profit margins significantly increased to 6.9 per cent as against 6.2 per cent during the corresponding period last year. Net margins also surged from 3.4 per cent to 4 per cent during the period, mainly due to higher GRMs.

The Financial Daily
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 25, 2011, 11:48:09 AM
Refineries: Result Previews - ATRL and NRL
   NRL and ATRL are scheduled to announce their 1HFY11 results on Thursday, January 27, 2011

   We expect NRL to post PAT of PKR3.03bn (EPS: PKR37.8) for 1HFY11, up 162% YoY and PAT of PKR1.68bn (EPS: PKR21.0), up 252% YoY for 2QFY11

   We expect ATRL to post PAT of PKR1.77bn (EPS: PKR20.7) for 1HFY11, compared to LAT of PKR210mn (LPS: PKR2.5) for same period last year; PAT for 2QFY11 is projected to stand at PKR1.19bn (EPS: PKR13.9), up 535% YoY

   Thrust for ATRL is to largely come from dividend income of PKR665mn from NRL, APL and Attock Gen

   ATRL and NRL are valued at FY11E PER of 5.4x and 5.0x respectively; however our Dec11 target prices for both the stocks stand at PKR102/share and PKR228/share, reflecting potential downside of 27% and 28%. We maintain our SELL stance on both the scrips
 
bma
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 27, 2011, 10:34:55 AM
NRL to post PAT of Rs2,813mn in 1HFY11

We expect the company to post profit after tax of Rs2,813mn (EPS of Rs35.17) during 1HFY11, resulting in massive 144%YoY growth in bottomline. During 2QFY11 alone, we expect the company to post bottomline growth of 207%YoY. However, growth is expected to be nominal compared to previous quarter (8%QoQ) as GRMs followed a flatter trend. Nevertheless, improvement in core refinery operations compared to previous year is expected to be the primary reason for substantial bottomline growth.

Fuel business to stay in limelight for now

As per our estimates, core refinery GRMs have improved to USD2.04/bbl during 1HFY11 against negative USD0.71/bbl realized during same period last year. Meanwhile, improvement is primarily supported by higher spreads in Kero and Gasoil (+161% and 223%YoY respectively during 1HFY11). Meanwhile contribution from lube business is expected to stay strong on the back of higher FO spreads (+18%YoY) realized to during 1HFY11. However, sharper rise in FO spreads during 2QFY11 (+29%QoQ) against 7%QoQ rise in Gasoil spreads could keep core refinery profitability in check during 2QFY11.

Outlook and Recommendation - ‘Hold’ with Dec-11 TP of Rs342/sh

We expect core refinery operation of the company to continue staying in green for coming periods, owing to strong spreads being enjoyed on high end products. However, NRL's strong lube business and pricing power in the same is expected to support the company even with the advent of reduction in core spreads. At current levels, we recommend 'Hold' on NRL with Dec-11 TP of Rs342/sh. We do not expect any cash payout with the results.

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 28, 2011, 09:38:45 AM
eps 39.22
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on January 31, 2011, 02:07:11 PM
Any bad news.... :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: invincible on January 31, 2011, 02:12:07 PM
Any bad news.... :skeptic:


Sare refineries floor hu rahe hain. What happened?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Trademaster on January 31, 2011, 02:24:49 PM
Refineries: Result Previews - ATRL and NRL
   NRL and ATRL are scheduled to announce their 1HFY11 results on Thursday, January 27, 2011

   We expect NRL to post PAT of PKR3.03bn (EPS: PKR37.8) for 1HFY11, up 162% YoY and PAT of PKR1.68bn (EPS: PKR21.0), up 252% YoY for 2QFY11

   We expect ATRL to post PAT of PKR1.77bn (EPS: PKR20.7) for 1HFY11, compared to LAT of PKR210mn (LPS: PKR2.5) for same period last year; PAT for 2QFY11 is projected to stand at PKR1.19bn (EPS: PKR13.9), up 535% YoY

   Thrust for ATRL is to largely come from dividend income of PKR665mn from NRL, APL and Attock Gen

   ATRL and NRL are valued at FY11E PER of 5.4x and 5.0x respectively; however our Dec11 target prices for both the stocks stand at PKR102/share and PKR228/share, reflecting potential downside of 27% and 28%. We maintain our SELL stance on both the scrips
 
bma

Ye waja hai.

I think After result initial reaction was good but in this quarter koi khas gain nahi hone wala so refinaries going down.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: invincible on January 31, 2011, 02:32:28 PM
Refineries: Result Previews - ATRL and NRL
   NRL and ATRL are scheduled to announce their 1HFY11 results on Thursday, January 27, 2011

   We expect NRL to post PAT of PKR3.03bn (EPS: PKR37.8) for 1HFY11, up 162% YoY and PAT of PKR1.68bn (EPS: PKR21.0), up 252% YoY for 2QFY11

   We expect ATRL to post PAT of PKR1.77bn (EPS: PKR20.7) for 1HFY11, compared to LAT of PKR210mn (LPS: PKR2.5) for same period last year; PAT for 2QFY11 is projected to stand at PKR1.19bn (EPS: PKR13.9), up 535% YoY

   Thrust for ATRL is to largely come from dividend income of PKR665mn from NRL, APL and Attock Gen

   ATRL and NRL are valued at FY11E PER of 5.4x and 5.0x respectively; however our Dec11 target prices for both the stocks stand at PKR102/share and PKR228/share, reflecting potential downside of 27% and 28%. We maintain our SELL stance on both the scrips
 
bma

Ye waja hai.

I think After result initial reaction was good but in this quarter koi khas gain nahi hone wala so refinaries going down.


U meant to say loghn ko result 4 din k baad samjh mein aya hai  :smilestar:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Manzoor Khan on January 31, 2011, 09:33:23 PM
aik admi jungle mein giya sub janwar hans rahe te aik bandar khamoosh tha.

wahi aadmi tesre din giya woh bandar hans raha tha baqi sub khamoosh the.

admi ni kisi se pocha yeh kya majra hai wo bola.

ten din pehle kisi ne lateefa sunaya saab hans rahe thee,  woh lateefa bander ko tesre din samagh me aya is liye ab hans raha hai.

teesre din ka bandar.
 :smilestar:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on March 29, 2011, 12:22:11 PM
13+ shall we get in it ....?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 30, 2011, 11:11:54 AM
NRL: Attractive even with lower duty-Buy

Higher crude oil prices & two back-to back revisions in base-oil prices in 3QFY11 have favorably changed the future GRMs/EPS outlook for NRL, in our view.

Resultantly, we turn positive on NRL and believe revised stock valuation matrix looks attractive at FY12E P/E of 5.9x and P/BV of 0.9x with our base-case duty assumption of 5% and conservative forecasts for future product spreads.

We value NRL at PRs352.97/sh based on DCF value and assign a Buy rating. Our PO implies FY12 P/E of 7.1x and P/BV of 1.1x.

We highlight (1) steeper than expected duty cut and (2) drop in GRMs as key risks to our Buy rating and estimates. Upside to our estimates can stem from (1) revision in gasoline pricing mechanism (2) inclusion of 1% incidentals on regulated products in ex-refinery price and (3) higher GRMs post Japan's earthquake.

Whilst timing of cut in duty remains uncertain, we think any downside in NRL's stock prices should be limited given likely strong EPS in 2HFY11 and strong DPS.

kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on March 30, 2011, 12:13:38 PM
Personally, I am also optimistic about NRL and ATRL.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on March 30, 2011, 11:20:01 PM
May be targeting to break above previous highs? :skeptic:
May be full year eps around 70?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 04, 2011, 12:06:35 PM
Based on its strong lube earnings, better fuel refinery
margins and its cash rich balance sheet, we continue
to rate National Refinery (NRL) as one of the
preferred plays amongst the refinery stocks. We
believe the company is set to post full year earnings
of Rs73 per share in FY11 translating into PE
multiple of 4.2x and a dividend yield of 8.3%. We
maintain ‘Buy’ on the stock.

jsgcl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 04, 2011, 01:36:03 PM
Potentially, it can easily cross 400, however, I am not giving a buy call. During correction, I will consider buying it.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Lets See on April 10, 2011, 06:00:07 PM
Poker Bhai,

What do you think NRL hold banta hai?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 10, 2011, 07:21:09 PM
definitely worth holding.

I am confused whether to purchase or not
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 15, 2011, 12:16:33 PM
Refinery: NATIONAL REFINERY (NRL) - 9MFY11E EPS of PKR58.4
   National Refinery Limited (NRL) is scheduled to announce its 9MFY11 results on Monday, April 18, 2011

   We expect the company to post PAT of PKR4.67bn (EPS: PKR58.4) for 9MFY11 compared to PAT of PKR1.97bn (EPS: PKR24.6) for 9MFY10

   On a quarterly basis, we expect the company to post PAT of PKR1.53bn (EPS: PKR19.2) for 3QFY11 compared to PAT of PKR813mn (EPS: PKR10.2) reported over the same period last year

   NRL is trading at FY11E PER of 4.6x; our Dec11 TP at PKR252/share reflects potential downside of 21%. SELL
 
bma
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stock addicted on April 15, 2011, 12:40:05 PM
why is bma downgrading it i think its still undervalued and they keep on downgrading it is there any problem with it
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 19, 2011, 10:03:55 AM
eps 60.6
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 19, 2011, 11:57:21 AM
NRL posts 9MFY11 EPS of Rs60.6, up 146%YoY
NRL announced profits of Rs4.8bn (EPS Rs60.6) in 9MFY11-
an increase of 146%YoY. The growth is primarily attributed to
strong performance in the lube segment with net margins
hovering in the vicinity of 14.7% (versus 10.3% in 9MFY10).
Although GRMs during 3QFY11 were slightly weak QoQ, they
remained positive during the 9M period. Distribution expenses
in the cumulative period were up 19%YoY at Rs835mn, while
financial charges declined to Rs110mn (down 45%YoY).
Further, other income rose to Rs1.9bn, from Rs919mn
previously. At current levels, the stock is trading at FY11E PE
of 4.5x and offers dividend yield of 8%, hence we maintain
our ‘Buy’ call on NRL.

jsgcl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 19, 2011, 12:14:02 PM
best among refinery sector and worth buying in mandi
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 19, 2011, 05:34:05 PM
Net Sales Rs. 38.8 billion
Cost of Sales Rs. 36.25 billion

Profit from refinery operations Rs. 2.55 billion

Thats the difference between NRL and ATRL.

Finance cost has also declined by 45% from Rs. 201 million to Rs. 110 million. Thats another good thing. ::)
 Will study detailed accounts later.

Stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 3.9x!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 20, 2011, 05:26:55 PM
I think technicals bohat ho gaye, I should BUY tomorrow :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 20, 2011, 05:28:44 PM
I think technicals bohat ho gaye, I should BUY tomorrow :skeptic:

nrl ke technicals weak hi kab howe thay
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 20, 2011, 05:35:20 PM
Haha. I thought I may get below 300 in mandi but even at 330, it is giving good value. So, north or south- I am gonna buy NRL tomorrow. 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salman Akbar on April 20, 2011, 05:38:22 PM
LOL@poker face

jab aap na khabi technicals follow hi nahi kiye to usay chorany ka sawal kahan say paida hota hai

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 20, 2011, 05:41:52 PM
LOL@poker face

jab aap na khabi technicals follow hi nahi kiye to usay chorany ka sawal kahan say paida hota hai


:biggrin: sab log bearish the. Is liye ruka hua tha. Forum environment ka effect to parta hi hai na.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jahangir on April 20, 2011, 05:43:39 PM
(http://i1218.photobucket.com/albums/dd403/doji133/nrl.png)

335 say pahley  :dunno:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Moazzam on April 24, 2011, 08:08:32 PM
­NRL posts profits of Rs4.8 billion
Published: April 24, 2011

LAHORE (PPI) - NRL announced profits of Rs4.8 billion in 9MFY11- an increase of 146 percent. The growth is primarily attributed to strong performance in the lube segment with net margins hovering in the vicinity of 14.7 percent (versus 10.3 percent in 9MFY10). Although GRMs during 3QFY11 were slightly weak QoQ, they remained positive during the 9M period. Distribution expenses in the cumulative period were up 19 percent at Rs835mn, while financial charges declined to Rs110mn (down 45 percent). Further, other income rose to Rs1.9bn, from Rs919mn previously. At current levels, the stock is trading at FY11E PE of 4.5x and offers dividend yield of 8 percent.

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 30, 2011, 08:26:08 PM
Period      PAT                    Eps                PAYOUT
2003-04   Rs. 1850 million    23.39             Div 100%
2004-05   Rs. 2120 million    26.81             Div 125%
2005-06   Rs. 3409 million    43.11             Div 160%
2006-07   Rs. 4202 million    53.14             Div 200% Bonus 20%
2007-08   Rs. 6005 million    75.10             Div 200%
2008-09   Rs. 1533 million    19.17             Div 125%
2009-10   Rs. 3248 million    41.08             Div 200%

Company's all time high is 438.85 achieved on 22 October, 2007. (correct me if I am wrong)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 04, 2011, 09:31:54 PM
3QFY11 earnings beat expectations: NRL posted profit after tax of PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR21.4)
for 3QFY11, up 110% YoY, as both fuel and lube segments remained robust. NRL’s 9MFY11
earnings at 60.6/share (?142% YoY) is the highest level ever achieved during any 9?month
period.

Robust fuel earnings: NRL reported fuel segment’s earnings at PKR4.2/share, up 157% YoY,
higher than our expectations of PKR1/share primarily due to higher realized GRM. NRL’s
realized GRM was 70% higher on QoQ basis during 3QFY11, likely due to timing gains on
crude oil procurement/ product sale. 9MFY11 fuel segment’s earnings clocked in at
PKR10/share against a loss of PKR4.3/share in the same period of last year.

Lube segment; the star play: Lube segment’s earnings jumped by 101% YoY to
PKR17.2/share during 3QFY11, primarily due to higher base oil volumetric sales. NRL sold
55ktons of base oil during 3QFY11, up 19%YoY and 6% higher than our expectations.
9MFY11 lube segment’s earnings at PKR51/share contributed 84% to NRL’s overall EPS
during the period.

Higher Other income and lower Financial charges: NRL’s higher than expected bottom line
was largely due to higher other income and lower financial charges during 3QFY11. NRL
posted other income at PKR676mn during 3QFY11, up 89% YoY but down 16% QoQ due to
11% QoQ lower cash balance, 19% higher than our expectations. Financial charges were
recorded at a mere PKR0.5mn (?99% QoQ) due to stable currency during 3QFY11, and
hence minimal exchange losses incurred on crude oil procurement.

FY11 EPS revision; Dec?11 PT up 1%: Due to uptick in base oil sale, we have increased our
FY11 volumetric sale assumption by 3%, and have increased our FY11 EPS by 4% to PKR79.
At yesterday’s closing price, the scrip offers FY11 dividend yield of 11.5% and is currently
trading at a 5% discount to our revised Dec?11 PT of PKR360/share. BUY!

NRL FY11E FY12E FY13E
EPS (PKR) 79.0 58.8 65.3
DPS (PKR) 40.0 29.0 33.0
PER (x) 4.3 5.8 5.3
Div Yield 11.5% 8.6% 9.5%
EV/EBITDA (x) 0.9 1.1 0.7
P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.0
ROE 32% 21% 21%
Source: Elixir Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on May 09, 2011, 12:06:21 PM
National Refinery (NRL): A Commodity Play

Recent volatility in oil prices primarily driven by developments in the international
politics and US employment  data, has surprised many  investors. In Pakistan
exposure to this commodity, can also  be gained through positions in stocks
belonging to companies operating in up and mid-stream segment of the oil chain.
Therefore, it will be interesting to note how crude oil prices in the international
market affect Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) for local refineries and to what
extent that translates into the company’s stock price.

Deemed Duty: NRL and ATRL relatively hedged against Regulatory risks

Before we discuss the dynamics of GRMs and crude oil in relation to stock prices,
it’s important to understand the regulatory risk that local refineries currently face. 
One of the major regulatory risks for refineries is the expected removal or
reduction of 7.5% deemed duty on High Speed Diesel (HSD). Deemed duty was
granted initially as an incentive for refineries to operate and establish
desulphurization units and produce Euro–II grade diesel. Euro–II standard diesel
contains 0.05% sulphur, whereas refineries in Pakistan produce diesel with
sulphur contents ranging between 0.5% and  0.8%. However, none of the listed
refineries have been able to honor this commitment so far. As a result Ministry of
Petroleum (MoP) removed incidentals from ex-refinery price calculation in Dec10
in order to penalize the refineries.
At present, it seems that MoP will remove or reduce deemed duty on HSD in the
near future and in such a case it is important to highlight exposure of the individual
refineries to deemed duty.
Deemed Duty as a percentage of GRMs (including deemed duty and excluding
wastages) suggests that NRL and ATRL accrue relatively least amount of Gross
Margins from deemed duty and are, therefore, relatively hedged against risk of
deemed duty’s reduction or removal. This is because both refineries derive most
of their income from non-energy products with considerably lower contribution of
HSD in the companies’ product mix.
May11 GRMs
Refineries  Without deemed duty With deemed duty deemed duty deemed duty % of GRM
NRL            15.60                    19.04                  3.44             18%
ATRL           6.99                     10.03                  3.04             30%
PRL             0.40                       3.12                  2.72             87%
BYCO          (0.41)                     3.43                  3.84             112%
Source: BMA Research , OGRA, Bloomberg
* GRM calculation excludes wastages   
Role of Crude Oil prices: NRL’s GRMs most affected
In order to gauge the impact of international crude oil prices on GRMs for local
refineries, we conducted regression analysis with historical 35-monthly GRMs
(excluding deemed duty and wastage) for each listed refinery as dependent
variable against monthly average of Arabian Light Crude oil prices over the same
period as the independent variable. Coefficient of crude oil against GRMs
obtained for each refinery is significant only for NRL and ATRL suggesting a
strong impact of crude oil price changes on GRMs for NRL (highest beta) followed
by ATRL. Hence both of these stocks prove to be better commodity plays within
the refinery sector.
Regression Result for Arab-Light Crude Oil against GRMs
NRL          0.156      0.763        0.000       Significant      0.874
ATRL        0.090      0.462        0.000       Significant      0.68
PRL          0.016      0.043        0.194       Insignificant    0.207
BYCO      -0.002      0.000        0.900       Insignificant    0.020
NRL          0.156      0.763        0.000       Significant      0.874
Source: BMA Research , OGRA, Bloomberg
* Coefficient of regression with GRM as dependent variable and Arab Light Crude Oil Price as
Independent variable. GRM calculation excludes deemed duty and wastages
Relation of GRMs and Stock Prices: NRL most levered 
It is also important to note how GRMs for each refinery translate into its stock
price movements. Regression analysis with historical monthly average stock price
for each listed refinery as the dependent variable against GRMs (excluding
deemed duty and wastage) for the same was conducted over the same period as
the independent variable. Coefficient of GRM against stock price obtained for
each refinery was found to be significant for NRL, ATRL and PRL. However R²
and correlation in case of ATRL and PRL obtained were very low; moreover a
negative coefficient contradicts economic intuition. 
Therefore, the analysis produces only one valid result (NRL), suggesting a
significant impact of NRL’s GRMs on its stock price. The result also supports our
stance that NRL is relatively a stronger commodity play among the refinery
universe. 
Invalid results incase of other refineries also make economic sense; ATRL’s
earnings are significantly determined through its non-refinery income which may
not necessarily be related to its GRMs. While in case of PRL, news regarding
acquisition by PSO has played a pivotal role in keeping the scrip’s price on the higher side. BYCO has also remained considerably dependent on developments
regarding its new refinery setup and recently on results posted by its oil marketing
operations.
Regression Result for GRMs against Stock Prices
Refineries    beta*         R²         p-value       Significance Correlation
NRL          12.618     0.418       0.000        Significant 0.646
ATRL         (6.577)    0.243       0.007       Significant 0.493
PRL           (4.732)    0.169       0.027       Significant 0.412
BYCO          0.373     0.122       0.063       Insignificant 0.349
Source: BMA Research , OGRA, Bloomberg
* Coefficient of regression with Stock Prices as dependent variable and GRMs as Independent
variable. GRM calculation excludes deemed duty and wastages
 
Outlook: Maintain our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the sector

We continue to maintain our UNDERWEIGHT stance on Refinery sector due to
regulatory risks faced by the industry. However, materialization of these risks will
lead us to revise our stance on the sector and the respective companies. On a
broader level, we expect sales of energy products to continue to rise on back of
ongoing gas crisis. Currently GRMs remain high and continue to benefit refineries
with NRL outperforming peers due to its lube segment. ATRL, on the other hand,
draws a strong support from its non-refinery operations.
ATRL and NRL are currently trading at FY11E PER of 5.0x and 4.3x respectively.
Our Dec11 TP for ATRL is PKR117/share while we are in the process of updating
our model for NRL and would release a note on the same shortly.

Muhammad Ali taufiq
BMA Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 18, 2011, 12:16:54 PM
Refinery: National Refinery (NRL) - The Lube Leader
   In order to better reflect the regulatory risks borne by the fuel segment of NRL and lower amount of risk associated with its lube segment, we have used sum-of-the parts methodology to value fuel and lube operations individually

   Our DCF based Dec11 Target Price for the stock now stands at PKR416/share with PKR96/share contributed by fuel segment and PKR320/share by lube operations

   On a broader level, we expect sales of energy products to continue to rise during the rest of the year on the back of ongoing gas crisis. Currently GRMs remain high and continue to benefit refineries with NRL outperforming peers due to its lube segment

   At yesterday’s closing price of PKR332/share, NRL offers an upside potential of 25% to our SoTP Dec11 Target Price. The stock is attractively valued with FY11E and FY12E PER of 3.8x and 4.1x respectively

   While we recommend a BUY on the stock, we believe that developments on deemed duty and volatility in oil prices and GRMs would be the key factors determining the stock performance going forward
 
bma
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on May 18, 2011, 12:21:11 PM
BMA has come on line now
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Forecaster on May 18, 2011, 09:23:36 PM
BMA has come on line now

Why are you sideline?? :(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 25, 2011, 11:59:27 AM
NRL: Favorable backdrop on stock price; Buy

We continue to see favorable backdrop for strong share price performance ahead for NRL and reiterate Buy with a PO of PRs352.97/sh.

Despite risk of reduction in deemed duty to 5%, we believe balance of risk to future GRMs is on the upside based on strong regional GRMs and lube margins. This portends potential future earnings upgrades on the street, in our view.

With 34% QoQ improvement in 4Q GRMs to US$7.5/bbl, we see strong 4Q core earnings of PRs14-15/sh.

Key share price triggers are (1) clarity on pricing mechanism in the Budget FY12 and (2) FY11 earnings announcement where we expect dividend of PRs20/sh.

We believe concerns on significant inventory losses due to volatility in oil prices are pre-mature. Assuming 5% drop in crude prices from March level, we estimate inventory losses of PRs4-5/sh.

NRL]Financial Highlights (year to June)
PRsmn 2010A 2011E 2012E
Sales 110,186 170,528 163,583
% Chng 1% 55% ]4%
PAT 3,285 5,755 4,009
% Chng 19% 75% ]30%
EPS 41.1 72.0 50.1
DPS 20.0 22.0 20.0
P/E 8.1 4.6 6.6
Div Yld 6.0% 6.6% 6.0%
P/BV 1.4 1.1 1.0
Source: NRL, KASB Estimates
kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on May 26, 2011, 12:26:52 PM
Haha. I thought I may get below 300 in mandi but even at 330, it is giving good value. So, north or south- I am gonna buy NRL tomorrow. 

congratulations poker bhai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on May 27, 2011, 06:38:45 PM
Haha. I thought I may get below 300 in mandi but even at 330, it is giving good value. So, north or south- I am gonna buy NRL tomorrow. 

congratulations poker bhai

Thanks bro. We only make plans and do tiny miny tricks, it is Allah who gives profit / loss to whoever HE desires.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on June 21, 2011, 03:43:33 PM
Revision in estimates: Owing to revision in MS pricing mechanism we have revised up our
annual GRMs assumption for ATRL and NRL by 21% and 6%, respectively, which has
increased EPS by 63?82% for ATRL and 6?7% for NRL. We also have roll forwarded our
discounting timeline from Dec?11 to June?12, which has increased our PT for ATRL and NRL
to PKR140/share and PKR370/share, respectively. We have a buy stance of NRL offering
total stock return of 15%, while we have upgraded ATRL to buy (total stock return of 22%).

NRL FY11E FY12E FY13E
EPS (PKR) 79.04 62.52 69.70
DPS (PKR) 40.0 31.0 35.0
PER (x) 4.5 5.7 5.1
Div. Yield 11.1% 8.8% 9.8%
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.2 0.7
P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1
ROE 32% 22% 22%
Source: Elixir Research


NRL (PKR) FY12E FY13E FY14E June-12 PT
EPS(previous) 58.82 65.35 79.15 370
EPS (revised) 62.52 69.70 84.20 370
% Change 6% 7% 6% 0%
Source: Elixir Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on June 21, 2011, 04:59:56 PM
In my personal opinion, NRL is good at current rates and still I see a lot of upside potential in it. Deemed duty issue is dormant so far and Insha Allah will remain like this because otherwise PRL and BYCO will suffer heavily and may opt to close their business.
If anyone wants exposure in refineries, then he should only invest in NRL. Cash position is also good and currently trading at P/E multiple of 4.7x which is attractive. If things keep on going like this, it may touch Rs. 450/- in medium term.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ihashishin on June 28, 2011, 10:37:47 AM
looks like it might hit its lower lock any news?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on June 28, 2011, 10:45:16 AM
looks like it might hit its lower lock any news?

Decline in refinery margins due to fall in oil prices
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dhillon on July 10, 2011, 05:20:23 AM
National Refinery shows 16% growth in sales


LAHORE: The National Refinery Limited (NRL) has shown 16 percent growth in its volumetric sales, as shortage of POL products over past three months and fault at Attock Refinery Ltd (ATRL), led NRL to increase its utilisation levels.
Experts said that the increased volumetric sales of NRL over FY11 translated into 3.0 percent increase in market share in favour of NRL. ATRL on the other hand increased its market share in SKO and JP sales by 11 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. Furnace oil (FO) being the only energy product with negative GRMs, reduction of its contribution towards the product mix of ATRL bodes well for the company. However, an increase in FO’s share in the product mix of NRL will hurt the company’s earnings.
The industry witnessed 97 percent increase in GRMs backed by rising crude oil prices. Average GRMs for NRL over FY11 stood at $11.9 per barrel while for ATRL, GRMs stood at $5.7 per barrel. Currently GRMs remain high and continue to benefit refineries with NRL outperforming peers due to its lube segment. ATRL, on the other hand, draws a strong support from its non-refinery operations. ppi

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on July 12, 2011, 08:11:20 PM
FY11 EPS expected at PKR84.7: As per our initial estimates, NRL is expected to post PAT of
PKR1.9bn (EPS: PKR24) during 4QFY11, up 13% QoQ and 46% on YoY basis. Full year EPS is
expected at PKR84.67 (up 106% YoY) against PKR41.08/share during FY10. NRL is also

expected to pay full year dividend of PKR40/share during 4QFY11.
Stellar lube segment earnings expected in 4Q: During 4QFY11, average base oil price
increased by USD218/ton QoQ to USD1,518/ton, ahead of the increase in its feedstock price
(FO), which was up by USD107/ton to USD643/ton. Thus Base Oil?FO spread widened by
USD110/ton to USD875/ton during 4QFY11, up 14% QoQ. We expect lube segment margins
to jump by 27% to USD510/ton, which is estimated to yield an EPS of PKR20 during 4QFY11.

28% jump in GRMs to yield attractive fuel business earnings: With 28% increase in 4QFY11
GRM, NRL’s fuel business EPS is expected at PKR4, against a loss of PKR4.5/share during the
same period last year. This shall take full year fuel segment EPS to PKR14, compared with a
loss of PKR8.8 during FY10.

PT revised to PKR430/share: We have revised up our Jun?12 PT by 16% to PKR430/share as
we now assume a terminal growth rate of 3% (previously 0%). At yesterday’s closing price,
the scrip trades at a discount of 19% and offers FY11 dividend yield of 11%, translating to
total return of 30%. BUY!

elixir
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on July 12, 2011, 08:45:32 PM
I still maintain my liking for NRL as the stock is trading at very lower multiples. Rs. 40/- dividend would be a happy surprise as the stock has never given more than Rs. 20/- dividend in any one year. May be, the company announce bonus shares which would benefit the shareholders more in terms of capital gains.
From its low of 166 in early 2010, the stock so far has given a total return of 132% in less than 1.5 years.

The stock has been able to remain profitable even the worst conditions in last 10-12 years.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on July 13, 2011, 12:10:12 PM

NRL: Raising estimates; reiterate Buy

We raise NRL's earnings estimates by 32-33% for FY12-FY13E and lift our PO to PRs404.1/sh, (up 15%). The upgrade reflects (1) recent improvement in gasoline pricing structure and (2) HSD deemed duty of 7.5% (previously 5%).

Given (1) 6% correction in NRL's stock price from its recent peak in Jun-11 and (2) estimates upgrade, we believe NRL makes a strong case on valuation with FY12E P/E of 5.5x and dividend yield of 7%

Key near-term triggers in our view are (1) the expected full production recovery of gasoline in July; (2) year-end result expectation, particularly cash dividend.

While we expect complex GRM to soften in 1Q from two-year high of US$8.05/bbl in 4Q, GRMs are likely to improve on an annual basis. This suggests a strong backdrop for earnings for local refiners is likely to continue in FY12.

kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: msypk on July 18, 2011, 03:35:13 PM
is there any bad news for nrl ? why is it taking a nose dive?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on August 10, 2011, 12:15:17 PM
Declining oil prices may give some inventory losses but the scrip is still a BUY with target of 450-475.
FY 11 eps may be 80 and dps Rs. 20 to 30.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on August 10, 2011, 02:02:07 PM
poker bhai kiya inventory losses is ki eps ko hit nahi karain  ga ...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on August 10, 2011, 04:25:53 PM
Yes, inventory losses will hit its eps but that will be in next year. However, that loss is usually recovered in the next season when price of oil rises. This is as per my understanding. {Some expert may guide us better}
At Rs. 345, it is trading at P/E multiple of 4.3x which is very attractive. Add to it the rich balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of over Rs. 19 billion {Rs. 237 per share}. The receivables of the company are around Rs. 9 billion on account of circular debt {Rs. 112.5 per share}, same for PSO is Rs. 138 billion {Rs. 800 per share}. The company also has over Rs. 22 billion reserves.

For those who don't know what does 'lube segment' means
There are two kind of refineries i.e fuel refinery and lube refinery. Fuel refinery purifies crude oil into fuel like petrol, diesel etc. Lube refinery purifies oil into lubricating oil like engine oil etc. NRL has two lube refineries having total capacity of 191,000 M tons of lube base oils and it is very profitable business. Let me give you example from FY 2009-10 result. The company posted a profit after tax of Rs. 3285 million which included loss after tax of Rs. 707 million from fuel segment and profit after tax of Rs. 3992 million from lube segment.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on August 10, 2011, 06:50:42 PM
thax poker bhai ....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: msypk on August 18, 2011, 01:39:48 PM
why is it holding out is there something that we might not know???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 19, 2011, 11:50:31 AM
bm 10th sept
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on August 19, 2011, 05:54:03 PM
why is it holding out is there something that we might not know???
Can't really understand your question. Holding out?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: momo on August 19, 2011, 07:08:24 PM
why is it holding out is there something that we might not know???
Can't really understand your question. Holding out?

He means to say why isn't it going up in price.

Thanks.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on August 19, 2011, 07:56:58 PM
It isn't going up because of negative market sentiments. If you observe the chart pattern of NRL and KSE-100, both are almost similar. When KSE-100 will move north, NRL will also, insha Allah, move north. My current target price is Rs. 450/- which I will revise after considering the expected profits of CY 2012.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: msypk on August 21, 2011, 04:02:16 PM
@ poker face , @ farzooq
please comment on NRL chart .Want to buy please advice.thanks
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on August 21, 2011, 04:19:05 PM
Buy it when the market bottoms. One of my top picks. For how long you want to hold it?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 21, 2011, 05:31:37 PM
@ poker face , @ farzooq
please comment on NRL chart .Want to buy please advice.thanks

oil falls refinery margins shrinks better avoid refineries for now
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: msypk on August 21, 2011, 08:51:21 PM
Buy it when the market bottoms. One of my top picks. For how long you want to hold it?
1 year span
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on August 21, 2011, 09:19:34 PM
Buy it when the market bottoms. One of my top picks. For how long you want to hold it?
1 year span
Keep it in your shopping list and buy when market starts to recover.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 09, 2011, 12:32:56 PM
Refinery:National Refinery (NRL) - FY11E EPS of PKR85.6

   National Refinery Limited (NRL) is scheduled to announce its FY11 results on Monday, September 12, 2011

   During FY11, we expect net sales to increase by 40% YoY as a result of (1) 55% YoY increase in Gross Refining Margins, and (2) increase in average Arab light crude oil prices by 21.4% YoY

   Hence we expect the company to post PAT of PKR6.84bn (EPS: PKR85.55) for FY11 compared to PAT of PKR3.29bn (EPS: PKR41.08) for FY10

   On a quarterly basis, we expect the company to post PAT of PKR1.99bn (EPS: PKR24.95) for 4QFY11, YoY increase of 51%

   We also expect the company to announce final cash dividend of PKR35/share for FY11. Moreover, possibility of a 20% bonus issue cannot be ruled out

   NRL is trading at FY12E PER of 4.1x; our Dec11 TP at PKR428/share reflects potential upside of 14%. ADD
 
bma
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: niaz.ahmed on September 09, 2011, 03:11:20 PM
poker bhai aap agree kertay hain bma ki report say? Thanks
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 09, 2011, 03:17:45 PM
poker bhai aap agree kertay hain bma ki report say? Thanks

Yes I am also expecting eps in range of 80-85.
As far as dps is concerned, NRL has never paid more than Rs. 20/- in dividend. Lets see how much it pays this time.
I am also expecting 20% bonus.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on September 09, 2011, 06:34:41 PM
poker bhai is negative just one day before result is it indication of any bad news ... as per ur expectaion and bma expectation it should perform well ... !!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 09, 2011, 06:47:49 PM
poker bhai is negative just one day before result is it indication of any bad news ... as per ur expectaion and bma expectation it should perform well ... !!

Don't worry
Insha Allah it will show good result
I am very hopeful from this share.
Holding it since last 5 months  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: naveed on September 10, 2011, 08:19:07 PM
NRL ki meeting ka kia hua bhai. kia result aya
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dhillon on September 10, 2011, 08:21:53 PM
NRL to post PAT of Rs6,422mn (EPS 80.31), up by 96%YoY

We expect NRL to post profit after tax (PAT) of Rs6,422mn (EPS Rs80.31), showing massive growth of 96%YoY during FY11. The company is anticipated to realize such growth on the back of both higher volumes as well as better profitability realized under both fuel and lube business. During the year, oil prices rose by average 25%YoY while crack spreads remained favorable throughout and we anticipate overall GRM to improve by 35%YoY to USD6.2/bbl. Meanwhile, the company posted 18%YoY growth in its fuel segment volumes, with bulk of the growth realized in furnace oil and high speed diesel (HSD), although altered yield realized is expected to offset impact of higher spreads to some extent for the fuel segment.

During 4QFY11, higher product prices are anticipated to push topline up by 12%QoQ, while fuel segment is anticipated to register growth of 14%QoQ despite decline in volumes. Company registered lower sales during the quarter as it recorded ~40%QoQ decline in its gasoline sales, which is expected to restrict growth in fuel segment during the quarter.

NRL remains cash rich and is further anticipated to post 103%YoY growth in its other income, providing additional support to bottomline. Given massive surge in profitability, superior profits under its lube business and cash rich position of the company, we anticipate the company to announce cash dividend of Rs40/share. At current levels, we recommend 'Hold' on NRL with Dec-11 TP of Rs360/share.

investcap
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 10, 2011, 08:25:24 PM
NRL ki meeting ka kia hua bhai. kia result aya

Result will be disclosed on Monday.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 12, 2011, 09:42:45 AM
eps 82.19 dps 25
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 12, 2011, 09:46:28 AM
eps 82.19 dps 25

A better payout was expected
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dr. Economist on September 12, 2011, 09:49:46 AM
eps 82.19 dps 25

DPS is low
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dr. Economist on September 12, 2011, 10:02:10 AM
eps 82.19 dps 25

EPS is far much higher than the DPS.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 12, 2011, 10:08:56 AM
I am satisfied.
Worth holding.
Next year expected to be even better, may be eps 95-100
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 16, 2011, 11:15:07 AM
NRL: FY11 DPS not living upto street expectations

Whilst NRL's FY11 EPS of PRs82.14 (up 100% YoY) overshot our estimates of PRs72, DPS of PRs25 was in-line but below street estimate (PRs40). We attribute positive earnings surprise to better than expected lube volumes/margin.

FY11 earnings growth is led by (1) 40% jump in GRMs to US$6.6/bbl (2) improved crude processing and (3) higher other income.

 FY12 earnings outlook remains constructive given recovery in fuel margin, robust lube margin and benefits from positive regulatory pricing change.

We fine tune our FY12/FY13 earnings estimates and reiterate Buy on NRL trading at 12% below our PO of PRs404.1 (FY12E P/E of 5.7x, EV/EBITDA of 1.7x).

Key risks to watch out for are (1) potential FX losses and (2) inventory losses/NRV adjustment due to volatility in crude prices.


Earnings estimate change
FY11A FY12E FY13E
New 82.1 63.3 62.6
Old 66.0 64.4
%? ?4% ?3%
Source: KASB Estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on September 16, 2011, 03:23:16 PM
Will trade above 370 shortly. :biggrin:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 16, 2011, 03:27:27 PM
KASB is estimating eps of 63 for CY 12 i.e a decline of 23% yoy.
I disagree with KASB estimates.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 19, 2011, 03:46:47 PM
NRL: Stellar margins and other income led to record high EPS

FY11 EPS clocked in at PKR82.14: NRL posted profit after tax of PKR6.6bn (EPS: PKR82.14), up 100% YoY and announced final DPS of PKR25. 4QFY11 EPS stood at PKR21.56, up 31% YoY. FY11 DPS translated into payout ratio of just 30%, against last three years average of 47%, and remained the major disappointment.
       
Robust margins buoyed FY11 earnings: With 80% YoY higher GRM coupled with 43% YoY jump in base oil margins, NRL’s gross profit jumped nearly by two fold. NRL is estimated to have sold 8% higher volumes of base oil during FY11. NRL’s FY11 GRM averaged USD5.86/bbl, which was up 80% YoY and was the highest in two years. This kept fuel business robust during the period under review as fuel segment contribution to total FY11 EPS is estimated to be 20% vs a loss of PKR8.8 in the last year. Along with robust margins, inventory gains are also estimated to have boosted the fuel segment earnings, as 9MFY11 inventory gains were estimated at PKR2.4/share. Besides this, FY11 base oil – FO spread averaged USD746/ton, up 43% YoY. Furthermore, NRL produced 4% YoY higher base oil during FY11, and we expect base oil sales to have risen by a higher rate (8%) due to high inventory levels at the beginning of the year.     
   
Other income further bolstered the bottom line: Other income, which primarily comprises of the return on deposits and short term investments, was up by a whopping 95% YoY during FY11, and further bolstered the bottom line. Other income, which comprises return on deposits and short term investment was massively up by 95% YoY, and further propped up earnings. Its contribution to FY11 EPS stood at PKR20/share or 25%. 4QFY11 other income, on the other hand, declined by 12% QoQ, probably due to lower cash balances. 

Strong earnings likely to continue in 1QFY12: NRL’s 1QFY12 fuel GRM clocked in at USD7.4/bbl, up 49% YoY, which suggests likely continuation of robust fuel earnings, while base oil margins have also remained stable. Our initial estimates suggest 1QFY12 EPS of PKR24. 1QFY12 fuel GRM clocked in at USD7.4/bbl, up 49% YoY, which, as per our initial estimates, is estimated to yield fuel business EPS of PKR4. Base oil margins, however, are expected remain to stable QoQ, which would result in lube segment EPS of 20/share taking total EPS to PKR24. EPS increased; BUY maintained: We have now incorporated the incidentals of 0.15% on HSD and 0.25% on MS which has raised our EPS by 2% (PKR1.23). At last closing price, the scrip offers an upside of 20% to our Jun?12 PT of PKR430. BUY! :8)

Ali Ahmed Tiwana
Elixir
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 20, 2011, 12:25:11 PM

Earnings estimate change
FY11A FY12E FY13E
New 82.1 63.3 62.6
Old 66.0 64.4
%? ?4% ?3%
Source: KASB Estimates

NRL FY12E FY13E FY14E
EPS (PKR) 62.80 70.02 84.54
DPS (PKR) 31.0 35.0 42.0
PER (x) 5.7 5.1 4.2
Div Yield 8.8% 9.8% 11.8%
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.2 0.7 0.2
P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0
ROE 22% 22% 24%
Source: Elixir Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on September 20, 2011, 07:39:25 PM
Will trade above 370 shortly. :biggrin:

Good show today. :biggrin:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 25, 2011, 10:05:59 PM
NRL is trading generally in range of 350-380 for the past 4 months. It may show some direction soon.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on September 25, 2011, 10:53:30 PM
Asa...

NRL better compared to POL as per the latest financials.

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on September 30, 2011, 04:45:01 PM
Sold NRL at 370.1 bot avg 363 :goodc:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 30, 2011, 09:08:18 PM
Annual Report 2011 (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/annual_report_2011.pdf)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 30, 2011, 09:12:54 PM
Performance of fuel segment and lube segment

Fuel Segment after running in losses consecutively for the previous two years earned Rs. 773 million
profit after tax compared to Rs. 707 million loss after tax in the last year. The profitability is achieved
due to better international product prices compared to crude cost, higher other income and decreased
exchange losses.
Lube segment earned profit after tax of Rs. 5,796 million compared to Rs. 3,992 million during last
year. Company has succeeded in achieving sales of Lube Base Oils at 206,150 M.Tons including export
of 43,908 M.Tons.

Break Up value now stands at Rs. 308/- per share
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 05, 2011, 01:05:20 AM
Asalam alikum,
Please Suggest what will be the MAX spot price of NRL in this week? how much it will be expected to go before Ex divident?

Thanks in Advance
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 05, 2011, 06:38:36 AM
in my opinion, 380-385
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 05, 2011, 05:19:20 PM
Thanks boss  :s1:
But Before that it was expected to reach around 420+ ???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 05, 2011, 07:47:44 PM
Thanks boss  :s1:
But Before that it was expected to reach around 420+ ???

My Sept' 12 target is 550.
I don't know if anyone else gave a target of 420 before xd?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Laoo Maal on October 05, 2011, 11:41:57 PM
Thanks boss  :s1:
But Before that it was expected to reach around 420+ ???

My Sept' 12 target is 550.
I don't know if anyone else gave a target of 420 before xd?
laoo national refinery tomorrow
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 09, 2011, 07:02:04 PM
Tomorrow NRL will be XD... will open arnd 342-343....

DRATE ki wajah sai shayad 345...

I think as i did with APL ..on friday bot arnd 372 sold arnd 380-385....

One could take risk tomoorow with NRL ... (as compared to POL)

to ME NRL better than POL ... coze.

It has lower volumes ..(ittake less time as compared to POL to move to + 5 -+10 or even lock.

Secondly .. its EPS far greater than POL ..

Inshallah tommorow NRL to be bot arnd 343-347 (max) will sale arnd 355

Rest Allah knows better..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: naveed on October 10, 2011, 02:22:38 PM
how will NRL perform tomorow or day after.  any expert view plz
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 10, 2011, 04:06:28 PM
how will NRL perform tomorow or day after.  any expert view plz
NRL is expected to remain bullish if KSE remains bullish. I can't say if it outperforms KSE but atleast I don't expect it to underperform the index.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 11, 2011, 10:52:42 AM
NRL in action .. i luv this share ..

bot 350 sale 354...

littll gain ..

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 11, 2011, 11:31:35 AM
 :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 11, 2011, 11:38:48 AM
:shoaby:
aap to 354 pe run out ho gaye ho :tongue:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 11, 2011, 11:54:33 AM
:shoaby:
aap to 354 pe run out ho gaye ho :tongue:

I have more at 362 (Jis pai) i would receive Dividend ..

Ajj tau short term gain tha ..

I missed opportunity of APL ..

But NRL main i have done ... i.e. pre sopot 362-3 ki cost pai hai ..

On which Dividend 25 / share milay ga ..

Now my cost Bridging .. :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 12, 2011, 11:20:16 AM
Sold NRL 365.5 Not in morning at 361  :goodc:

Luv this share ...For day trading ...

In these days ..

Holding my Dividend Portfolio .,.. :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 17, 2011, 01:48:04 PM
Luv this share bot 361 sold 366 :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 17, 2011, 02:56:20 PM
Luv this share bot 361 sold 366 :shoaby:

Luving this share....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 18, 2011, 10:26:16 AM
NRL Active Boys ..

But today i wont buy .. ..for day trading .. :s1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 18, 2011, 10:36:16 AM
Looking in Dangerous mood .. shayad 375 cross karay ajj ..

 :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 18, 2011, 10:40:20 AM
Wah Wah.. :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 18, 2011, 10:48:18 AM
Sold my Dividend Issue... bot 363 at 371.9

50%

Alhamdoulliah

If opportunity comes than buy back warna bye bye..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 18, 2011, 11:54:16 AM
Opportunity to buy back coming .. :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 18, 2011, 03:05:45 PM
1QFY11 EPS expected at PKR21.70: NRL is scheduled to announce its financial result for
1QFY12 on October 20, 2011. We expect the company to post PAT of PKR1.7bn (EPS:
PKR21.70), up 1% QoQ and 29% YoY.
Lube segment; poised for 32% YoY EPS growth: During 1QFY12, average base oil prices
increased by USD366/ton YoY, compared to USD210/ton YoY surge in its feed stock (FO)
prices. Thus Base oil – FO spread widened by USD155/ton YoY to USD827/ton. With 23%
YoY surge in Base oil ? FO spread, Lube segment is expected to post an EPS of PKR18.4 in
1QFY12, up 32% YoY.
46% YoY higher GRM to keep fuel segment afloat: NRL’s 1QFY12 GRM of USD7.28/bbl (up
46% YoY), is expected to yield core gross profit of PKR773mn, which shall yield an EPS of
PKR3.1, despite an estimated inventory loss of PKR24mn and 130% YoY higher financial
charges expected in 1QFY12.
43% YoY rise in other income likely: Other income, which primarily comprises of return on
deposits and short term investments, is expected to remain strong at PKR598mn during
1QFY12, up 43% YoY.
Investment perspective: Owing to lower than expected payout in FY11, we have revised
down our future payout ratio to 40% (earlier 50%). At last closing price, NRL offers an upside
of 17% to our Jun?12 PT of PKR430/share. BUY!

elixir
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2011, 12:31:09 PM
Refinery: National Refinery (NRL) - 1QFY12E EPS of PKR21.9

   National Refinery Limited (NRL) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY12 results on Thursday, October 20, 2011

   During 1QFY12, we expect net sales to increase by 34% YoY as a result of (1) 37% YoY increase in Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) and (2) increase in average Arab light crude oil prices by 48% YoY during the period under review

   Hence we expect the company to post PAT of PKR1.75bn (EPS: PKR21.9) for 1QFY12 compared to PAT of PKR1.35bn (EPS: PKR16.9) for 1QFY11

   NRL is trading at FY12E PER of 4.0x; our Dec11 TP at PKR458/share reflects potential upside of 25%. BUY
 
bma
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 19, 2011, 04:09:07 PM
NRL nai Khush Kardia ....

Bot back my Yesterdays 50% NRL Holding at 364 ... now 370

Inshallah luking forward for 375+ may be 380 tomorrow

Waisay i luv this share ... mashallah .. :goodc:

Recommend this to people ..

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Dhillon on October 19, 2011, 09:14:04 PM
NRL to post PAT of Rs2.1bn (EPS Rs26.59) for 1QFY12

We expect NRL to post profit after tax (PAT) of Rs2.1bn (EPS of Rs26.59) resulting in YoY growth of 58% in bottomline. Topline of the company is expected to rise by 33%YoY despite lower volumes in 1QFY12 (down 18%YoY) primarily owing to higher product prices realized this time around (up by 49%YoY). However, on QoQ basis, revenues are expected to improve owing to higher volumes compared to previous quarter (up 3%QoQ, considering outage due to maintenance). Meanwhile, we expect NRL's profitability to continue its northward trend as GMs are expected to be up 115bpsYoY to ~8%. Higher margins are expected to be realized owing to noticeable improvement in refinery spreads as well as improved fuel sales mix in favor of high yielding HSD and Mogas (sales are up by 11% and 45%QoQ respectively). In terms of segments, we expect NRL's fuel and lube businesses to post growth of 50% and 59%YoY in bottomline. We recommend 'Hold' on NRL with Dec-11 TP of Rs365/sh.   

Invest Cap
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 20, 2011, 10:47:13 AM
Sold my NRL Portfolio ... aat 370.5 bot at 364...

370 ki buy wala have in my hands ..

 :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 20, 2011, 12:25:00 PM
NRL Coming in my buying range 360-365 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 20, 2011, 02:19:59 PM
NRL kiun gir gya aj???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: naveed on October 20, 2011, 03:17:17 PM
sudden selling. any news????
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 20, 2011, 11:22:59 PM
bOT nrl AT 362 AND 360  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: investment.guru on October 21, 2011, 09:20:04 AM
EPS 10.36 previous 16.87
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 21, 2011, 09:24:30 AM
EPS 10.36 previous 16.87

below expectations
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 21, 2011, 09:34:46 AM
Plz suggest how much NRL can be go down from that rate???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: naveed on October 21, 2011, 09:35:50 AM
@ Kamal
bhai ab kia ho ga??????????????????
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: masamad on October 21, 2011, 09:39:30 AM
poker bhai pls guide should b buy nrl and at what price.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 21, 2011, 10:14:10 AM
NRL  :(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: naveed on October 21, 2011, 10:42:14 AM
yeh ab kis tarah se move karey ga.  very ver unpredictable
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: msypk on October 21, 2011, 10:52:41 AM
NRL nay too kamal kar deya !!!! :bangin:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Trademaster on October 21, 2011, 11:01:32 AM
Lagta hai ATRL ne is ki earning mar li.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 21, 2011, 02:05:18 PM
Lagta hai ATRL ne is ki earning mar li.

I think last year of NRL was exceptional ...

current Q-1 result is inline even better than 2009..

So for me no issues ..

I think that way ..

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 21, 2011, 03:38:02 PM
Sales increased by 12.63%
Gross Refinery Margins declined massively from 6.92% to 4.02%
ATRL margins increased from 3.49% to 4.01%
Apparently could not find any reason for such a massive decline. Price may go down to 300.
Lets see what Q1 report reveals.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 26, 2011, 12:47:00 AM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 26, 2011, 09:57:42 AM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Laoo Maal on October 26, 2011, 10:00:12 AM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:
aaj upper lock lagta hai :tongue:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 26, 2011, 10:10:44 AM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:
aaj upper lock lagta hai :tongue:

If market 50-75 + band hotee hai i agree with u ...

warna +5 shayad band ho .. inshalalh ..letccc..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 26, 2011, 11:31:16 AM
Wohe haal howa jo POL ka howa tha, NRL start mai high then went down....
Market is not performing well
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 26, 2011, 03:34:00 PM
As per my info ... NRL main foreign Investments hain ... 10-15% of shares in the market. .

Gora sb ... market sai baizar aiy huay hain

Jin jin Shares main Gora Sb ki Sharakat hai .. woh pitaingay ...

Waisay ... 11,300+ main agayee market. .

Expect 11, 200 level to be melted in 2 day time .. :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: phdmaker on October 26, 2011, 03:36:55 PM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:
aaj upper lock lagta hai :tongue:

Lower locked  :arrowhead:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 26, 2011, 03:45:48 PM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:
aaj upper lock lagta hai :tongue:

Lower locked  :arrowhead:

Chalo Lock tau laga na neechay ka hee sahee ..

Last time when market cloapsed from 11,800 -900 levels to 11,000 levels in Ramadan this share fell from 340-350 to 270 so immitating the prev .. fall ..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 26, 2011, 05:44:33 PM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:
aaj upper lock lagta hai :tongue:

Lower locked  :arrowhead:

Chalo Lock tau laga na neechay ka hee sahee ..

Last time when market cloapsed from 11,800 -900 levels to 11,000 levels in Ramadan this share fell from 340-350 to 270 so immitating the prev .. fall ..


i am of the same opinion and think that it may rebound from Rs380-385
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 26, 2011, 08:07:28 PM
NRL ne to result ke baad dhoom macha di hai
Lagta hai ab to 300 se bhi neeche jayega

Holding since April @ 333  >:(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stockist on October 26, 2011, 08:09:49 PM
NRL ne to result ke baad dhoom macha di hai
Lagta hai ab to 300 se bhi neeche jayega

Holding since April @ 333  >:(


270-280 would be a good buy wat do u think Poker bro?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 26, 2011, 08:13:46 PM
expected eps was 24, and Q1 eps 10!

Kick it
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stockist on October 26, 2011, 08:20:18 PM
expected eps was 24, and Q1 eps 10!

Kick it

What was so bad, that its eps came back to 10, Although ATRL eps was so good.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Trademaster on October 26, 2011, 10:02:38 PM
ATRL AUR NRL ki earnigs braber but NRL 3 times in rate then ATRL. Kia ye khula tazaz nahi? ya to NRL 120 pe ajae ya ATRL 310 pe ya donon muk muka karke donon 250 pe .
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Koolfire on October 26, 2011, 10:20:27 PM
ATRL AUR NRL ki earnigs braber but NRL 3 times in rate then ATRL. Kia ye khula tazaz nahi? ya to NRL 120 pe ajae ya ATRL 310 pe ya donon muk muka karke donon 250 pe .
Performance of fuel segment and lube segment

Fuel Segment after running in losses consecutively for the previous two years earned Rs. 773 million
profit after tax compared to Rs. 707 million loss after tax in the last year. The profitability is achieved
due to better international product prices compared to crude cost, higher other income and decreased
exchange losses.
Lube segment earned profit after tax of Rs. 5,796 million compared to Rs. 3,992 million during last
year. Company has succeeded in achieving sales of Lube Base Oils at 206,150 M.Tons including export
of 43,908 M.Tons.

Break Up value now stands at Rs. 308/- per share



NRL is also lube manufacturer
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 26, 2011, 10:31:13 PM
Its eps really hurt me and I still could not find any reason why this happened?
Waiting for Q1 report
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Trademaster on October 26, 2011, 10:38:28 PM
Hope it will recover soon. Still holding or sold? :console:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 26, 2011, 10:44:02 PM
Holding.
Recover to ab HY result tak nahi lagta kare ga
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 26, 2011, 11:58:01 PM
Hope it will recover soon. Still holding or sold? :console:

Holding kai ilawa koi option nahee ...

Waisay one of my friend at NRL said ... kai some previous  levies were materilize during the Q-1. that resulted in decrease in eps. The legal advisor of the company forcasted loss on that matter as a matter of prudence loss / provision was book.

 :fingerscrossed1:

Further NRL ki Borrowings increased. Resulted in increase finance cost. As NRL kau Oil ki payt karnay kai liay market sai dollar mehngay main Bankon sai laina para ... (sort of mishedging)

Cost of sales increased significantly ... as per KSE notice ...

Fuel Power and Water cost increased in Q-1 comparatively ... (Due to increased power crisis and mehanga fuel)

Provision for slow moving chemical stock increased ..

Slight increased in depreciation -- (more assets increased as factory main new FA used as renovation)

Cost of Crude Oil Consumed increased ...

 :fingerscrossed1:

I personally think ... Finance Cost and COS major reasons ...16 sai 10 pai eps ...Q-1

Althoug sales increased ...

Half Yearly tak ... 2012 tak ka tayun kia jasakta hai ..

Waisay ... i have no options rather than hold .. avg mujhay banana nahee hai ...

letccccc ...

shaid abb ki KSE ki jump to 11,800 levels pai we can se NRL arnd 360-70 pai

Shayad Q-1 main management was not good as far as estimations of expenses are concerned ...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 27, 2011, 11:05:55 AM
Dear Seniors,

Please tell me should i Sell NRL or wait bcz I bought it at around 360 :(
Will it recover or it will go more down????

HOLD coz .. jitni taize sai neeechay aiya hai ussay ziyada taizee sai .. wapis aiyga ..

NRL loss nahee daiga ..

If u need cash than u may sale ...

Main isliay nahee roh raha kiunkai ... mainay khud ... 360-70 ka lia hua hai par its my long term investment ..

 :s1:
aaj upper lock lagta hai :tongue:

Lower locked  :arrowhead:

Chalo Lock tau laga na neechay ka hee sahee ..

Last time when market cloapsed from 11,800 -900 levels to 11,000 levels in Ramadan this share fell from 340-350 to 270 so immitating the prev .. fall ..


i am of the same opinion and think that it may rebound from Rs380-385


i had to write 280-285 instead i worte 380-385
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 27, 2011, 11:13:29 AM
Holding.
Recover to ab HY result tak nahi lagta kare ga


poker bhai without investigating its statement how can u say that it would not recover till hy result
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 27, 2011, 12:40:10 PM
again heeding towards lower lock
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 27, 2011, 12:45:09 PM
again heeding towards lower lock

lag jaiga lower lock.. market phir 100 point ka jhatka laigee nechay ka for volumes. ..

 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 27, 2011, 12:48:54 PM
again heeding towards lower lock

lag jaiga lower lock.. market phir 100 point ka jhatka laigee nechay ka for volumes. ..

 :fingerscrossed1:
kamal bhai kis expense nay significantly is ki income to dent mara haa
provision
interest income .. etc ...???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on October 27, 2011, 01:29:05 PM
again heeding towards lower lock

lag jaiga lower lock.. market phir 100 point ka jhatka laigee nechay ka for volumes. ..

 :fingerscrossed1:
kamal bhai kis expense nay significantly is ki income to dent mara haa
provision
interest income .. etc ...???

As per my info overall cost of sales and finance cost. .

Finance cost isliay ..kiunkai Oil ki payments kai liay isnay mkt sai mehnga dollar khareeda ... khreednay kai liay Banks nai loan bhee dia ..so .. Borrowing increased ..

COS increased ..ismain cost of Fuelll consumed ... increased and Fuel Power water and depreciation cost ... in COS increased ..

as per my info ..

Letcc wat the annual report says ..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 27, 2011, 03:01:26 PM
My feelings for NRL (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ_v6Eadj1E&feature=related)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: phdmaker on October 27, 2011, 03:38:20 PM
My feelings for NRL (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ_v6Eadj1E&feature=related)

 :biggrin:

Don't be worry. InshAllah recovery will start soon.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 28, 2011, 02:59:08 PM
Please suggest buy NRL on this rate or wait?

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 28, 2011, 03:39:26 PM
wait ...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 17, 2011, 10:28:06 AM
1QFY12 EPS dwindles: NRL’s 1QFY12 PAT at PKR828mn (EPS: PKR10.36) was down 39% YoY
and below our expectation of PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR21.70). Below expected earnings led the
scrip to correct by 10% since 1Q result announcement. In line with historic trend, no dividend
was announced with 1QFY12 result.
Inventory loss cast a pall over fuel business earnings: While 1QFY12 running GRM was up
46% YoY, an estimated inventory loss of PKR833mn turned the fuel business into red (LPS:
PKR3.72). Further hit came from 205% YoY higher financial charges, emanating from 2% PKR
depreciation against USD in 1QFY12.
Low base oil offtake partly offset by higher margins: NRL sold a mere 33ktons of base oil
during 1QFY12 (? 29% YoY), as against 46kton in 1QFY11. Dismal local demand coupled with
96% YoY lower exports amid anticipation of decline in global base oil prices (group 1 in
particular) led to subdued base oil offtake during 1QFY12. However, lube segment EPS at
PKR14.1 was up 1% YoY, as 42% YoY higher Base oil – FO spread outweighed the lower
offtake.
Earnings to bounce back in 2QFY12: Onset of sugar cane crushing season, which starts from
mid Nov and last till mid April, shall boost base oil volumes in 2QFY12. Moreover, NRL is
trying to ramp up its base oil export to the level achieved during last year. With no change in
local base oil prices amid marginal decline in its feedstock price during 2Q to date, local lube
business margins are expected to sustain in 2QFY12. Our initial estimates, using 1QFY12 base
oil margins, suggest 2QFY12 EPS at PKR19.8.
FY12 estimates maintained: We maintain our estimates for FY12 given 3?7% correction in
international base oil prices during 1QFY12, though strong 1QFY12 margins, 40% higher than
our assumed FY12 average, indicate an upside potential. We continue to rate buy on NRL with
Jun?12 PT of PKR430/share, offering potential upside of 33%.

NRL FY12E FY13E FY14E
EPS (PKR) 62.55 70.77 74.85
DPS (PKR) 25.0 28.0 30.0
PER (x) 5.2 4.6 4.3
Div. Yield 7.8% 8.7% 9.3%
EV/EBITDA (x) 0.0 (0.5) (0.9)
P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
ROE 21% 21% 19%
Source: Elixir Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on November 17, 2011, 11:05:16 AM
1QFY12 EPS dwindles: NRL’s 1QFY12 PAT at PKR828mn (EPS: PKR10.36) was down 39% YoY
and below our expectation of PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR21.70). Below expected earnings led the
scrip to correct by 10% since 1Q result announcement. In line with historic trend, no dividend
was announced with 1QFY12 result.
Inventory loss cast a pall over fuel business earnings: While 1QFY12 running GRM was up
46% YoY, an estimated inventory loss of PKR833mn turned the fuel business into red (LPS:
PKR3.72). Further hit came from 205% YoY higher financial charges, emanating from 2% PKR
depreciation against USD in 1QFY12.
Low base oil offtake partly offset by higher margins: NRL sold a mere 33ktons of base oil
during 1QFY12 (? 29% YoY), as against 46kton in 1QFY11. Dismal local demand coupled with
96% YoY lower exports amid anticipation of decline in global base oil prices (group 1 in
particular) led to subdued base oil offtake during 1QFY12. However, lube segment EPS at
PKR14.1 was up 1% YoY, as 42% YoY higher Base oil – FO spread outweighed the lower
offtake.
Earnings to bounce back in 2QFY12: Onset of sugar cane crushing season, which starts from
mid Nov and last till mid April, shall boost base oil volumes in 2QFY12. Moreover, NRL is
trying to ramp up its base oil export to the level achieved during last year. With no change in
local base oil prices amid marginal decline in its feedstock price during 2Q to date, local lube
business margins are expected to sustain in 2QFY12. Our initial estimates, using 1QFY12 base
oil margins, suggest 2QFY12 EPS at PKR19.8.
FY12 estimates maintained: We maintain our estimates for FY12 given 3?7% correction in
international base oil prices during 1QFY12, though strong 1QFY12 margins, 40% higher than
our assumed FY12 average, indicate an upside potential. We continue to rate buy on NRL with
Jun?12 PT of PKR430/share, offering potential upside of 33%.

NRL FY12E FY13E FY14E
EPS (PKR) 62.55 70.77 74.85
DPS (PKR) 25.0 28.0 30.0
PER (x) 5.2 4.6 4.3
Div. Yield 7.8% 8.7% 9.3%
EV/EBITDA (x) 0.0 (0.5) (0.9)
P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
ROE 21% 21% 19%
Source: Elixir Research


ISKA DIVIDEND KAB AIYGA >>> :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 22, 2011, 10:28:16 AM
National Refinery Ltd?Lower throughput and relatively less exposure to FO may hamper strong
GRMs from translating into bottom?line. We estimate 2Q core EPS range of PRs10?12. NRL
booked PRs300mn NRV adjustment and PRs180mn FX losses in 1Q.

kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 28, 2011, 11:20:28 AM

NRL: Investment case dented; Down to U/P

 We strongly believe NRL's investment thesis has materially deteriorated given weakness in base-oil margin, inventory build up and future lower dividend.

We lower our FY12/FY13 estimates by 39%/18% and reduce our PO to PRs262. We downgrade NRL to U/P from Buy and believe recent price correction is not enough as consensus opinion is still bullish on potential earning rebound.

We estimate 39% drop in base-oil margin in 2Q on the back of 18% reduction in prices since Sep. This should drive 70% QoQ drop in gross profit from lube oil.

 We estimate 2Q EPS of PRs5-6/sh which does not incorporate inventory or FX gains. Should risks to core EPS play out, we flag bottom-line could turn red.

 Key risks to our call are (1) earlier than expected redound in base-oil margin (2) normal terms of trade for PSO and (3) surprise in fuel oil margin.

NRL?Earnings revision (PRs/sh)
       2012 2013 2014 PO
New 38.5 51.6 60.9 404.0
Old 63.3 62.6 N/A 262.5
% ?39% ?18% 0% ?35%
Source: KASB Estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on November 28, 2011, 04:25:15 PM
sold 60% of my NRL holdings at 310 a few weeks back.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: phdmaker on November 29, 2011, 11:00:49 AM
sold 60% of my NRL holdings at 310 a few weeks back.

Please try to keep us informed when you see attractive buying levels in it.

I bought very few at lower lock today.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on November 29, 2011, 11:57:42 AM
Asalam Alikum,
Please suggest how much it can go DOWN?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 29, 2011, 01:33:43 PM
Refineries seek withdrawal of turnover tax (The News)
Local refineries have submitted a working paper to the ministry as part of Petroleum Policy
2011. Refineries are seeking to (1) do away with turnover tax (2) demand further incentive for
early start of diesel desulphurization project, (3) exemption from FX losses on crude oil
payment, (4) relaxation on dividend cap rule and (5) withdrawal of govt. directive to disallow
adjustment of losses against special reserves.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on November 29, 2011, 06:40:51 PM
If we compare NRL with ATRL it totally showed a different picture.... Can we relate NRL with ATRL?
1. bought NRL on lower cap today aorund 271. At what price should I sell NRL?
2. bought ATRL on 120. At what price should I sell ATRL?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 29, 2011, 07:25:39 PM
If we compare NRL with ATRL it totally showed a different picture.... Can we relate NRL with ATRL?
1. bought NRL on lower cap today aorund 271. At what price should I sell NRL?
2. bought ATRL on 120. At what price should I sell ATRL?

Nrl can fall further due to declining margins
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on November 30, 2011, 11:37:12 AM
If we compare NRL with ATRL it totally showed a different picture.... Can we relate NRL with ATRL?
1. bought NRL on lower cap today aorund 271. At what price should I sell NRL?
2. bought ATRL on 120. At what price should I sell ATRL?

Nrl can fall further due to declining margins

any target of bottom as i feel that it should be brought here ....?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 30, 2011, 01:51:27 PM
Refinery: National Refinery (NRL) - Base Oil Margin Decline - Unsustainable

National Refinery’s stock price has shed 15% in 6 trading days driven by concerns regarding massive decline in international base oil prices. In our opinion this decline has been overplayed by local investors

 Base oil margins have declined due to ample supply of the product in each region while demand tapering off at the same time. In our opinion base oil prices have now bottomed out. Significant recovery in base oil prices is anticipated with start of the New Year as blenders start building inventories ahead of spring season

 Nevertheless massive decline in base oil margins witnessed during 2QFY12 period will significantly dent NRL’s earning for the period. We expect 2QFY12 earnings to be in the vicinity of PKR7-8/share for the company. We lower our FY12 EPS estimates by 30% at PKR58.3/share and reduce our Dec11 target price to PKR371/share (down 19%)

 However we continue to maintain our BUY stance on the stock due to its strong medium and long term fundamentals and advise investors to accumulate at current levels

At yesterday’s closing price of PKR271/share, NRL offers an upside potential of 37% to our SoTP Dec11 target price. The stock is attractively valued with FY12E and FY13E PER of 4.8x and 3.3x respectively

bma
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on November 30, 2011, 09:34:17 PM
All those who have bought at higher levels should HOLD now.

Wait for fundamentals to improve. In my opinion, selling at these levels is not a better option.  :skeptic:

However, I have removed NRL from my top picks.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 30, 2011, 09:58:14 PM
If we compare NRL with ATRL it totally showed a different picture.... Can we relate NRL with ATRL?
1. bought NRL on lower cap today aorund 271. At what price should I sell NRL?
2. bought ATRL on 120. At what price should I sell ATRL?

Nrl can fall further due to declining margins

any target of bottom as i feel that it should be brought here ....?

Supports around 250
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on December 03, 2011, 04:10:18 PM
Q1 2012 Report (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/first_quarter_sep_2011.pdf)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on December 03, 2011, 04:16:33 PM
Director's Report

Assalam-u-Alaikum!
The Board of Directors is pleased to present a brief overview of the un-audited interim financial information of your Company for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

Your company earned profit after tax of Rs. 828 million during the period under review as compared to Rs. 1,349 million in the corresponding period. Earning per share was Rs. 10.36 compared to Rs. 16.87 in the corresponding period.

Fuel Segment incurred loss after tax of Rs. 297 million compared to profit after tax of Rs. 237 million in the corresponding period. Product selling prices and crude oil prices remained volatile resulting in shrinkage of gross refining margins. Inventories increased significantly due to depressed market demand; consequently, refinery was operated at 80% of the designed capacity compared to 98% during the corresponding period. Rupee value reduced against US dollars, resulting in exchange loss of Rs. 193 million as compared to Rs. 64 million for corresponding period.

Demand of Lube Base Oil remained depressed and company could sell 32,770 M.Tons compared to 46,011 M.Tons during corresponding period.  In the aftermath of floods during 2010 it was expected that development work in the Country would raise the demand for Asphalt, but, due to paucity of development funds, Government could not start the same, hence, sales reduced to 20,291 M.Tons compared to 26,695 M.Tons during corresponding period. Reduction in demand of Lube Base Oil and Asphalt increased the inventory levels, resultantly lube refinery operated at 100% of designed capacity compared to 118% for corresponding period.

The overdue receivable was restricted at a constant figure of Rs. 9,393 million.  Immediate attention
of the Government is however been awaited to resolve the issue of circular debt.

The Board would like to thank all stakeholders for their continued support and confidence in
National Refinery Limited.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on December 03, 2011, 10:40:25 PM
Rupee weakness may result in more exchange losses. In last quarter exchange loss was 193 million and in this quarter it might touch 250million. Why the company is not properly hedging its exchange rate risk.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: imran.hafeez on December 04, 2011, 09:51:10 PM
Dear Seniors,

At around Rs 250, isnt NRL attractive enough to buy for long term?

According to BMA NRL will be able to manage EPS of Rs 58 in FY12, which means NRL is trading at 4.3 P/E

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on December 05, 2011, 12:42:05 AM
Dear Seniors,

At around Rs 250, isnt NRL attractive enough to buy for long term?

According to BMA NRL will be able to manage EPS of Rs 58 in FY12, which means NRL is trading at 4.3 P/E

Refinery Margins are down therefore fresh entry is not recommended
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on December 07, 2011, 05:46:33 PM
NRL is down to 242 {more than 34%} from its 19 Oct, 11 closing of 370. Lagta hai 200 touch kar jaye ga.
Eps of 50 and P/E of 5.5 gives a TP of 275. But high chances of touching 200 now.
I will hold the 40% I kept in the hope of any improvement in price and still happy that atleast I sold 60% @ 310 and limited my losses to some extent.

 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 08, 2011, 06:46:38 PM
today nrl rebound was technical or smthngelse...?


and anyone recieved its div...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on December 08, 2011, 11:26:05 PM
today nrl rebound was technical or smthngelse...?


and anyone recieved its div...?

Yes ireceived divid last week. NRL (not technical) overall market green tau sab neechay thay tau sab bargay. LOCK akhri main khuljata agar aur time hota.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 13, 2011, 12:02:17 PM
i feel like buy it here whats the seniors recommnedation ...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on December 13, 2011, 12:10:37 PM
i feel like buy it here whats the seniors recommnedation ...?

No from me although i have NRL at 360. My advice not to purchase.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 13, 2011, 04:50:52 PM
then at what rate do u feel it should be brought ...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on December 15, 2011, 07:44:30 PM
At 200, I will certainly BUY back my full 60% sold position.

Now negatives have definitely been overplayed.
I may even BUY more NRL at 200.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: phdmaker on December 15, 2011, 09:22:01 PM
At 200, I will certainly BUY back my full 60% sold position.

Now negatives have definitely been overplayed.
I may even BUY more NRL at 200.

Rs 160.64 was the lowest value in 2010 on 3rd March.  :arrowhead:

Lets see this time  ::)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 28, 2011, 12:31:01 PM
At 200, I will certainly BUY back my full 60% sold position.

Now negatives have definitely been overplayed.
I may even BUY more NRL at 200.

do u feel its accumulate here ...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on January 03, 2012, 01:04:51 PM
Please suggest how much HIGH NRL can go Today???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 03, 2012, 01:13:59 PM
Please suggest how much HIGH NRL can go Today???

I bot it at 237.8 and sold it at 240.3 ;)

It un predictable. + 4-8 bhee hosakta hai and +1 bhee.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on January 05, 2012, 01:19:56 PM
Any News regarding NRL? continuoulsy falling :( ....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 05, 2012, 01:30:44 PM
Any News regarding NRL? continuoulsy falling :( ....


GRMs decline for all listed refineries: Dec?11 GRM for ATRL was down by 10% MoM to
USD3.05/bbl, followed by 33% MoM decrease in PRL’s GRM, which averaged USD1.08/bbl.
With 8% MoM decline, NRL’s GRM remained the highest amongst the refiners where its Dec?
11 GRM averaged USD5.34/bbl.

elixir

Declining refinery margins is the reason
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on January 05, 2012, 02:32:09 PM
will it result in loss to nrl ...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: guru1 on January 05, 2012, 02:42:22 PM
What's formula to calculate GRMs?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 09, 2012, 12:05:58 PM

NRL: Risks priced in, up to Neutral

 We upgrade NRL to Neutral from U/P with a revised PO of PRs237/sh. A 30% correction in stock price since Nov. 2011 suggests the changed earnings environment for NRL is priced-in.

We have lowered our earnings estimates by 25/14/16% for FY12/FY13/FY14E. Our estimates revision is based on (1) lower base-oil margin and (2) tweaking of fuel products spread.

We now expect NRL to face first quarter of losses in 2Q12 since 2Q09 estimated at PRs4-5/sh led by weak base-oil margin, FX losses and turnover tax.

We see limited downside from current price given (1) the stock is trading at FY13E P/E of 5.0x, and EV/EBITDA of 0.6x, (2) partial recovery in base oil margin.

Potential upside in fuel oil margin from closure of refining capacity in the Europe indicates upside risk to our estimates.

NRL?Earnings revision (PRs/sh)
2012 2013 2014 PO
New 28.7 44.5 51.0 237.0
Old 38.5 51.6 60.9 262.0
% ?25% ?14% ?16% ?10%
Source: KASB Estimates

NRL?Financial Highlights (Year to June)
PRsmn 2011 2012E 2013E
Sales 148,558 147,649 161,382
% ? 34.8% ?0.6% 9.3%
PAT 2,648 2,648 2,648
% ? 100.0% ?65.1% 55.1%
EPS (PRs) 82.14 28.69 44.48
DPS (PRs) 25.00 12.00 20.00
PER (x) 2.7 7.7 5.0
EV/EBITDA (0.0) 0.7 0.6
D/Y (%) 11% 5% 9%
Source: KASB Estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 18, 2012, 04:55:35 PM
Refineries underperformed index during CY11… While KSE?100 index corrected by 4.2% in
CY11, oil refineries performed even worse with a return of ?9% (NRL: ?0.8%, ATRL: ?8.5% and
PRL: ?33%).

…despite strong earning: CY11 has been phenomenal for the local refineries in terms of
profitably. While refineries follow a financial year that ends in June, we have analyzed
calendar year performances. NRL posted an EPS of PKR53.3 during 9MCY11 up 22% from
PKR43.5 in 9MCY10. ATRL earned an EPS of PKR10.47 in 9MCY11, up 26% YoY, While PRL
booked an LPS of PKR18 against a LPS of PKR37 last year.

Strong 2QFY12 earnings shall restore confidence: While exchange losses shall hurt
profitability, at least two of the three refineries under coverage will likely post strong
results. ATRL is expected to post an EPS of PKR12.1 in 2QFY12, up 12% over the previous
year, helped by PKR12/share of dividend income. Despite reduction in base oil prices and
margins NRL will still manage an EPS of PKR12.78 in 2QFY12, due to recovery in volumes.
Base oil offtakes have recovered significantly after price reductions.

Stocks available at bargains: ATRL offers an upside of 37% to our Dec?12 price target
(PKR140/share) and trade at FY12 PER of 3.7x. NRL offers a massive 71% upside to our Dec?
12 target price of PKR385/share and trades at an attractive PER of 4.4x. BUY

NRL FY12E FY13E FY14E
EPS (PKR) 50.85 64.46 68.43
DPS (PKR) 25.0 26.0 27.0
PER (x) 4.4 3.5 3.3
Div Yield 11.1% 11.5% 12.0%
P/BV (x) (1.0) (1.5) (1.9)
ROE 0.7 0.7 0.6
Source: Elixir Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 20, 2012, 11:25:51 AM
nrl bm 28th jan
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: riz on January 20, 2012, 12:53:13 PM
seniors,please comment NRl buy or not.result se pehle kahan tak jasakta hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 20, 2012, 01:14:06 PM
seniors,please comment NRl buy or not.result se pehle kahan tak jasakta hai

Buy/hold with stop
Resistance 248
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: bravo on January 23, 2012, 03:14:17 PM
farooq sir, please bataie k nrl nay kitna interest lya hua hai apni refinery k lyay percentage may bata dijey ga to acha rahay ga jazaKALLAH.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 23, 2012, 05:43:47 PM
farooq sir, please bataie k nrl nay kitna interest lya hua hai apni refinery k lyay percentage may bata dijey ga to acha rahay ga jazaKALLAH.
u mean long term and short term debt??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: bravo on January 24, 2012, 01:45:26 AM
farooq sir, please bataie k nrl nay kitna interest lya hua hai apni refinery k lyay percentage may bata dijey ga to acha rahay ga jazaKALLAH.
u mean long term and short term debt??

Sir basically, long term i think because, may phr bechnay k baad utna percent less kerdo profit say, jo sood hai nrl ka. i hope u will get my point.
JazakALLAH farooq bhai.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 24, 2012, 05:23:48 PM
Assalam o Allaikum,
Brothers whats the dominant reason behind NRL stocks downfall? is the expected eps less than the current market price of the stock?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 24, 2012, 07:41:20 PM
Assalam o Allaikum,
Brothers whats the dominant reason behind NRL stocks downfall? is the expected eps less than the current market price of the stock?

Refinery margins are down therefore lower earnings are expected

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 24, 2012, 08:57:56 PM
Assalam o Allaikum,
Brothers whats the dominant reason behind NRL stocks downfall? is the expected eps less than the current market price of the stock?

Refinery margins are down therefore lower earnings are expected

Thanks Sir!
By the way, would the recent Us-Iran instigation have any effect on margins? I suspect Oil prices will rise due to this... and aren't these earnings reflecting of concerned quarter earnings?

p.s. I am a a bonafide certified newbie so my questions might be stupid:)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Valueestimator on January 24, 2012, 09:48:49 PM
in my view the mains reason for the down fall of nrl is the availability of other attractive stocks with similar eps and less price
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 24, 2012, 09:53:55 PM
in my view the mains reason for the down fall of nrl is the availability of other attractive stocks with similar eps and less price

Thanks!!!
is there any chance if it resurging in either the short or long term? i mean should one hold and see or sell and cut losses short?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: AGz on January 25, 2012, 02:45:34 PM
in my view the mains reason for the down fall of nrl is the availability of other attractive stocks with similar eps and less price

Thanks!!!
is there any chance if it resurging in either the short or long term? i mean should one hold and see or sell and cut losses short?

It depends on the amount of investment and the loss you are facing. If it is comparatively minimal then I would say 'Hold', otherwise would require your portfolio detail. Also in the coming weeks Oil product prices are expected to rise, hence I see a timely upsurge in NRL. But on the fundamental point of view GRM stands its ground for now.  :s1:

By the way, you are welcome here with warm hearts. When I was a newbie, I asked way more stupendous questions. Farzooq Bhai is the witness, so chill  ;)

Have safe and profitable trading  :goodc:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 25, 2012, 07:14:27 PM

?

It depends on the amount of investment and the loss you are facing. If it is comparatively minimal then I would say 'Hold', otherwise would require your portfolio detail. Also in the coming weeks Oil product prices are expected to rise, hence I see a timely upsurge in NRL. But on the fundamental point of view GRM stands its ground for now.  :s1:

By the way, you are welcome here with warm hearts. When I was a newbie, I asked way more stupendous questions. Farzooq Bhai is the witness, so chill  ;)

Have safe and profitable trading  :goodc:

Thank-you for the kind and encouraging words. as per your advice(and my inclination) i would HOLD. by the way my portfolio looks something like
- NRL 40%
- Engro 25 %
- Netsol 10 %
- Ffbl  10%
and a few shares of ANL, FFC, WTCL & FEROZ...

Stretching too thin, aint I?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 25, 2012, 08:36:48 PM
what is ur buy rate for NRL?
I am also holding @ 333 :biggrin:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 25, 2012, 10:04:36 PM
what is ur buy rate for NRL?
I am also holding @ 333 :biggrin:

Wah Poker wah. Humain u were saying kai "Kamal NRL kai saath acha nahee hua" as a sentence of humour. Khud 333 ki buy hai. Sahee hai bhaee. :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 25, 2012, 10:18:50 PM
 :laugh:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 25, 2012, 10:32:47 PM
:laugh:

Chalo 360 kai kareeb koi tau hai. hehhe.
Waisay ur analysis are quite good. No question about this. My general and overall point of view. :goodc:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 25, 2012, 11:31:08 PM
farooq sir, please bataie k nrl nay kitna interest lya hua hai apni refinery k lyay percentage may bata dijey ga to acha rahay ga jazaKALLAH.
u mean long term and short term debt??

Sir basically, long term i think because, may phr bechnay k baad utna percent less kerdo profit say, jo sood hai nrl ka. i hope u will get my point.
JazakALLAH farooq bhai.
NRL has no long term loans
In 2011, they booked profit of Rs. 1.46 billion from PLS saving account and Rs. 585 million from treasury bills {both interest based profits}. Rs. 8.9 billion is invested in 3 month T-bills.
Operating profit was Rs. 10.17 billion
On Q1 2012, Rs. 4.6 billion is invested in T-bills, Rs. 477 million out of operating profit of Rs. 1.5 billion was other income, part of which came from interest based sources.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: AGz on January 26, 2012, 12:16:35 PM

?

It depends on the amount of investment and the loss you are facing. If it is comparatively minimal then I would say 'Hold', otherwise would require your portfolio detail. Also in the coming weeks Oil product prices are expected to rise, hence I see a timely upsurge in NRL. But on the fundamental point of view GRM stands its ground for now.  :s1:

By the way, you are welcome here with warm hearts. When I was a newbie, I asked way more stupendous questions. Farzooq Bhai is the witness, so chill  ;)

Have safe and profitable trading  :goodc:

Thank-you for the kind and encouraging words. as per your advice(and my inclination) i would HOLD. by the way my portfolio looks something like
- NRL 40%
- Engro 25 %
- Netsol 10 %
- Ffbl  10%
and a few shares of ANL, FFC, WTCL & FEROZ...

Stretching too thin, aint I?

Your investment price of NRL will help in determining the next move.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 26, 2012, 01:24:31 PM
NRL to post EPS of Rs15.04 in 1HFY12, down 62% YoY 

We expect NRL to post profit after tax of Rs1,202mn resulting in an EPS of Rs15.04 during 1HFY12. Earning of the company is expected to be lower by 62% YoY owing to dampened lube segment’s margins along with subdued fuel segment performance. During 2QFY12, we expect NRL to post EPS of Rs4.68, which would be 79% lower compared to same period last year and 55% lower compared to previous quarter. We expect fuel segment to continue its loss-making stream with decline in estimated GRMs along with slow-moving inventory of furnace oil due to circular debt issue.

Although overall sales during 2QFY12 recovered by 4%QoQ, it is still lower by 8% compared to same quarter last year. With this, we see fuel segment losses to rest at ~Rs4/share. On the other hand, lube segment is expected to show a decline of 38% in bottomline on QoQ basis owing to much lower margins expected to be realized during the period. Base oil prices continued to show weakness during 2QFY12 owing primarily to weak demand in the region. Meanwhile in some regions, stock piles made it difficult to cut down supplies without heading into complete closure at producer level. This resulted in 10-20% QoQ fall in base oil prices in different regions within the EMEA zone. Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to remain firm with Arab Light maintaining its level while Brent showing only negligible weakness on QoQ basis.

Outlook and Recommendation - ‘Hold’ NRL

Recently, some improvement was observed in crack spreads on the back of recent supply concerns. Meanwhile, base oil market show signs of improvement while suppliers opine that prices have bottomed out already. But the element of weak demand still persists and it remains less certain whether prices would rebound to levels realized during 2HFY11. What appears more likely is greater price stability in base-oil market at current levels at least during 3QFY12. At current levels, we recommend 'Hold' on NRL

investcap
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 26, 2012, 04:32:40 PM

?

It depends on the amount of investment and the loss you are facing. If it is comparatively minimal then I would say 'Hold', otherwise would require your portfolio detail. Also in the coming weeks Oil product prices are expected to rise, hence I see a timely upsurge in NRL. But on the fundamental point of view GRM stands its ground for now.  :s1:

By the way, you are welcome here with warm hearts. When I was a newbie, I asked way more stupendous questions. Farzooq Bhai is the witness, so chill  ;)

Have safe and profitable trading  :goodc:

Thank-you for the kind and encouraging words. as per your advice(and my inclination) i would HOLD. by the way my portfolio looks something like
- NRL 40%
- Engro 25 %
- Netsol 10 %
- Ffbl  10%
and a few shares of ANL, FFC, WTCL & FEROZ...

Stretching too thin, aint I?

Your investment price of NRL will help in determining the next move.

247.2
well today was pretty encouraging... m going to hold atleast till the BM. m even thinking of buying more if the price drops any further to average out my position.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 26, 2012, 04:36:34 PM
@ engrusama
for 247, I recommend SELL on strength and exit this scrip or at least reduce your position by 75%.
Shift to PPL with Target Price 225/-.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 26, 2012, 07:11:50 PM
@ engrusama
for 247, I recommend SELL on strength and exit this scrip or at least reduce your position by 75%.
Shift to PPL with Target Price 225/-.

Thank-you. put my mind at ease now. will look for an opening before bm.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 27, 2012, 04:42:53 PM
offloaded all of nrl at 247.5. directly bought FFBL because i beleive its still a good buy considering results. i can understand people are afraid of this due to decrease in DAP margins but i still believe it to be a good relaible stock.

Thanks to the seniors for advising and encouraging.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 27, 2012, 04:46:28 PM
offloaded all of nrl at 247.5. directly bought FFBL because i beleive its still a good buy considering results. i can understand people are afraid of this due to decrease in DAP margins but i still believe it to be a good relaible stock.

Thanks to the seniors for advising and encouraging.
I think buying FFBL at these rates is not preferable. It is a HOLD at these levels.

Buy something undervalued, hold when it is fairly valued and sell when it becomes overvalued.

BUY below 42
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 27, 2012, 04:50:39 PM
offloaded all of nrl at 247.5. directly bought FFBL because i beleive its still a good buy considering results. i can understand people are afraid of this due to decrease in DAP margins but i still believe it to be a good relaible stock.

Thanks to the seniors for advising and encouraging.
I think buying FFBL at these rates is not preferable. It is a HOLD at these levels.

Buy something undervalued, hold when it is fairly valued and sell when it becomes overvalued.

BUY below 42

Fully agreed.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on January 27, 2012, 05:19:24 PM
offloaded all of nrl at 247.5. directly bought FFBL because i beleive its still a good buy considering results. i can understand people are afraid of this due to decrease in DAP margins but i still believe it to be a good relaible stock.

Thanks to the seniors for advising and encouraging.
I think buying FFBL at these rates is not preferable. It is a HOLD at these levels.

Buy something undervalued, hold when it is fairly valued and sell when it becomes overvalued.

BUY below 42

Fully agreed.
@ seniors
Well i already had a fair bit of Ffbl near 50. i thought i would average it out. and i am a going to be patient about it. going to lookout for a sell on strength or hold it for months. will keep you updated and will be looking for advise. thank you once again.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 28, 2012, 07:36:48 PM
any update on NRL half year result? It was scheduled today
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 28, 2012, 11:27:14 PM
any update on NRL half year result? It was scheduled today

It will announced on monday morning
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stockist on January 30, 2012, 01:16:03 AM
any update on NRL half year result? It was scheduled today

I think it will give a big surprise.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 30, 2012, 09:08:57 AM
any update on NRL half year result? It was scheduled today

I think it will give a big surprise.

neechay ka ya upper ka?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 30, 2012, 09:44:52 AM
Result ok ya baikar. Poki Hold ya sale and buy back down?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 30, 2012, 09:47:27 AM
HY eps 19.82
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 30, 2012, 09:48:07 AM
HY eps 19.82

Has mkt discounted it?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Trademaster on January 30, 2012, 10:13:45 AM
EPS Further down slightly from 1 Qtr. Its so sad.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on January 30, 2012, 10:57:29 AM
Result ok ya baikar. Poki Hold ya sale and buy back down?
I m holding
result ok to me
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on January 30, 2012, 10:59:31 AM
Result ok ya baikar. Poki Hold ya sale and buy back down?
I m holding
result ok to me

Haan market has already discounted it i gues. Same here.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 30, 2012, 12:14:13 PM
NRL post 1HFY12 earnings of Rs19.82/share
National Refinery Limited (NRL) announced its 1HFY12 result
today. The company posted 2QFY12 EPS of Rs9.46 (down
58%YoY), taking 1H earnings to Rs19.82/share (down
49%YoY). The major reason for the decline in profitability is
due to lower gross margins. We presently maintain our ‘Hold’
stance on the stock.

jsgcl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: waqasrajputacca on February 01, 2012, 02:04:02 PM
Hello seniors,

can u guyz kindly tell whats the market share of NRL  (volumetric). against its competitor??.

p.s i m writing a thesis on NRL performance and chosen PRL as its competitor. is it reasonable??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on February 03, 2012, 03:02:15 PM
 :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on February 03, 2012, 03:07:59 PM
:thumbsup_anim:

 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 08, 2012, 11:28:58 AM
+ve surprise in 2Q not enough to excite
NRL’s better than expected results in 2QFY12 are encouraging, and we note other marginal
operational improvements. However, the two cumulatively are not enough to alter our cautious
earnings outlook. We adjust our FY12E estimates to incorporate actual 2Q EPS but leave future
estimates largely unchanged. At 5.8x FY13E earnings and near?term D/Y of 5%, stock valuation
are increasingly losing attraction and provides little downside protection in case current weak
base oil margins drag expected 2H earnings recovery. We continue to see the stock trading in a
range and maintain our Neutral rating with PO of PRs247.47/sh.

Weak base oil margin ? a cause of concern
2QFY12 has proved to be a turning point for NRL’s earnings trend as base?oil prices in domestic
market collapsed 15% while crude prices and exchange rate moved unfavorably. Resultantly,
base oil margin averaged US$45/bbl in 2Q versus an avg. of US$74/bbl in FY11. Interestingly,
there is no material change in 3Q outlook so far, though base oil prices are up 3?6% from 2Q
lows. We believe the revision would suffice only to offset adverse FX movement seen in Nov.
We contend higher crude prices portend further such revisions in future as highlighted in our
report “Risks priced in; Up to Neutral” dated 9th Jan, 2012. We opine NRL’s earnings would be
exposed to downside risk in absence of future revisions and continuation of current oil prices.

Complex GRMs have improved in 3QFY12
GRMs for complex refinery are firm in 3Q averaging US$8.9/bbl on slew of turnarounds and
weak refinery utilization in the Europe and US. Improved spreads on gasoline (higher demand,
refinery outage), naphtha (higher petrochem demand) and fuel oil (supply tightness in Asia) had
led to the improvement. Simple GRMs were also well supported due to material change in fuel
oil spread, averaging US$6.5/bbl, up 55%. This is evident in product spread for local refineries in
Feb. Whilst improvement in margin of fuel products is encouraging, the same will not be enough
to offset the impact of weak base?oil margin; hence will fail to lift earnings to FY11 levels.

2QFY12 earnings surprise driven by one?offs
NRL’s 2QFY12 EPS of PRs9.46 is supported by one?off write back of liability PRs300?350mn and
estimated inventory gains of PRs300mn. Adjusted EPS is more modest at PRs2?2.5 but still
above our loss/sh estimate of PRs4?5. As per provisional numbers, refinery throughout has
jumped 4% QoQ in 2QFY12 with 1HFY12 utilization estimated at 82?83%, down from 96?97% in
1HFY11. Reportedly, overdue receivables are encouragingly sticky at PRs9?10bn as NRL has
adopted no credit policy for PSO. Other income has come in at ~PRs400mn which shows
position of surplus cash balance has not changed much from 1QFY12.

NRL?Earnings revision (PRs/sh)
2012 2013 2014 PO
New 37.4 45.3 52.0 247.47
Old 28.7 44.5 51 237.0
% 30% 2% 2% 4.4%
Source: KASB Estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 28, 2012, 12:39:25 PM
1HFY12 EPS clocked in at PKR19.82: NRL posted 1HFY12 profit after tax of PKR 1.6bn (EPS:
PKR19.82), which was down 49% YoY due to loss in fuel segment and contraction in lube
business margin. For 2QFY12 alone, profit after tax came at PKR756mn (EPS: PKR9.46),
down 58% YoY.

Shrinkage in Base oil ? FO spread and loss in fuel segment led to earnings decline:
Shrinkage in base oil – FO spread amid declining base oil prices along with lower offtake
resulted in NRL’s base oil segment to report 36% YoY decline in earnings during 1HFY12,
which clocked in at PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR21). Fuel segment, on the other hand reported a loss
of PKR120mn primarily due to inventory loss.

Base oil prices set to increase by 5?6%: With improvement in international base oil prices
especially during the last few weeks, local base prices, which track the regional prices, are
likely to increase by an estimated 5?6%. This likely increase in base oil prices shall offset the
increase in FO price, which has been rising since the last Aug?11 and hence would increase
the spread thereof.

FY12 estimates revised down: Due to lower than expected realized margin in lube business
during 1HFY12, we have reduced our FY12 estimates by 12% to PKR44.53. At the last
trading price, scrip offers an upside of 45% to our revised Dec?12 PT of PKR380 and FY12
dividend yield of 8%.

NRL FY12E FY13E FY14E
EPS (PKR) 44.53 63.98 68.23
DPS (PKR) 20.0 20.0 20.0
PER (x) 5.9 4.1 3.8
Div. Yield 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%
EV/EBITDA (x) (0.6) (1.0) (1.5)
P/BV (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7
ROE 15% 19% 18%
Source: Elixir Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on March 02, 2012, 01:02:13 PM
:shoaby:
consolidated well between 250-260
recovering nicely
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on March 06, 2012, 06:08:31 PM
poker bhai new entry kay bary mein kiya rai haa nrl mein .....!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on March 06, 2012, 07:09:15 PM
poker bhai new entry kay bary mein kiya rai haa nrl mein .....!
It will be better to wait for overall market correction for making an entry. You should also see that you will be making entry @ kse-100 level 13324
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 07, 2012, 12:12:36 PM
Timing gains may mask weak GRM trend in 3Q
We update our earnings outlook for NRL based on latest trends in ex?refinery prices, margin and
exchange rate. We opine overall backdrop for core earnings remains weak, however likely
absence of heavy exchange losses (unlike 2QFY12) and stronger timing gains based on oil price
rally may provide a strong support to earnings. A key risk to earnings may stem from turnover
tax on refining earnings, a major by?product of high oil prices and weak core earnings. We
maintain our future earnings estimates and neutral rating on NRL (PO of PRs247.47/sh) however
hasten to highlight potential downside in stock price in the near term due to likely weak 3QFY12
results.

Recovery in GRM proved short?lived…
Though GRM started 3QFY12 on a strong note with product spreads on furnace oil and naphtha
showing a firm recovery in Dec/Jan, the strength has proved to be short?lived in Feb/Mar as
regional refineries come out of heavy maintenance period. Overall, complex GRM have dropped
from a high of US$10/bbl in Feb to US$ 5.8/bbl in Mar. Simple GRM have showed even higher
volatility and dropped to US$2.3/bbl in March from a high of US$7.6/bbl in Feb.

…but support from timing gains is likely
The impact of high oil prices will emerge as the key wild card for refining earnings in 3QFY12. As
inventory levels remain high in both value and quantity (PRs23bn as of 2QFY12 compared to
PRs19bn in June 2011), a strong rally in oil prices of 13% in 3QFY12 may provide robust support
to refining earnings in the form of timing gains. Assuming no change in oil prices and 2QFY12
inventory numbers, we estimate timing gains of PRs800?900mn for NRL.

Exchange losses should remain low
Following heightened volatility in exchange rate in 2QFY12, the rupee has shown a relative
stability in 3QFY12 and has depreciated by only 1.1%. This should reduce the level of exchange
losses refining companies have to book on P&L. NRL booked ~PRs380mn in exchange losses in
2QFY12 which is likely to shrink to PRs100?150mn in 3QFY12.

NRL?earnings recovery hinges on base oil prices recovery
With a major portion of NRL’s earnings coming from base?oil, recovery in base oil prices will
remain a necessary condition for earnings to show some kind of semblance of trends seen last
year. However, base oil price recovery has proved to be limited so far with price increase of 5%
since Jan?12 trailing the combined effect of oil prices rally and exchange rate depreciation in
3QFY12. As a result, we remain cautious on earnings outlook for NRL. We flag the risk of NRL’s
bottom?line turning negative in absence of inventory gains. Overall, we estimate core losses of
PRs280mn or PRs3.5/sh (including the impact of 1% turnover tax) in 3QFY12 and earnings of
PRs285mn or PRs3.6/sh assuming inventory gains.

NRL?Financial Highlights
PRsmn 2011A 2012E 2013E
Sales 148,558 147,649 161,382
% Change 34.8% ?0.6% 9.3%
PAT 2,648 2,648 2,648
% Change 100.0% ?54.5% 21.2%
EPS 82.14 37.36 45.30
DPS (PRs) 25.00 12.00 20.00
P/E (x) 3.3 7.2 6.0
EV/EBITDA 0.4 1.6 1.3
P/B (x) 0.88 0.81 0.75
Div Yield 9.3% 4.4% 7.4%
Source: NRL, KASB estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: space on March 19, 2012, 10:35:48 AM
AKD - The oil refineries have refused to follow the GoP directives to remove sulphur from petrol and start producing petrol from naphtha by 2014 due to unavailability of capital to invest. Dr. Asim Hussain said that GoP is considering to guarantee margins to refineries for next five years and after that POL will be fully deregulated, however, deemed duty will not be provided, in exchange.

Seniors will the part highlighted have any impact on NRL ?

Thanks

-Space
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: faizy777 on March 27, 2012, 01:08:22 PM
kya 250 pe buying theek hai???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: invincible on March 27, 2012, 01:10:23 PM
kya 250 pe buying theek hai???

100 plus index pe buying nah bante in any script.

rest its up to you.

Good luck.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on March 30, 2012, 05:45:41 PM
only share in which I am suffering loss
bought @ 333
booked Rs. 25 dividend i.e Rs. 22.25
net break even level : 310.75
net loss per share : 63.35 i.e 20%

however, I am hopeful that it will also come back above 300 once fundamentals show improvement.
will keep on holding insha Allah  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on April 01, 2012, 03:22:06 PM
U can average at current rate around 250 , it will show some good gains in coming days INSHALLAH.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on April 02, 2012, 10:09:58 AM
only share in which I am suffering loss
bought @ 333
booked Rs. 25 dividend i.e Rs. 22.25
net break even level : 310.75
net loss per share : 63.35 i.e 20%

however, I am hopeful that it will also come back above 300 once fundamentals show improvement.
will keep on holding insha Allah  :fingerscrossed1:

poki bhai is ko average down kay baray mein ap kay kiya plan haan ... !!!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 02, 2012, 10:37:09 AM
no plans yet
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on April 03, 2012, 08:25:49 PM
no plans yet
yaar yeah mughay ek do din say kafi acha lag raha haa kiya advise ha app ki yahaan pay entry lee loon kiya ... k koi aur scrip daikh loon
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 03, 2012, 08:31:38 PM
entry level is good at 245 on fundamentals
cash levels are very good
other income is also very handsome
can bounce any time when refinery margins improve

layman eps for FY 2012 are 40 which justifies current price of 245
downside is limited from here

but if overall market correction takes place, you may find this at lower levels as well  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on April 04, 2012, 11:13:09 AM
yeah kia howa mein nay to abi entry lii hi nahi ha aur yeah 6 + ..... :bangin:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on April 05, 2012, 04:39:44 PM
board meeting 18 April for 9 month FY 12 result
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamal on April 05, 2012, 11:31:50 PM
board meeting 18 April for 9 month FY 12 result

Yur Expectation
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 09, 2012, 12:39:24 PM
Margin outlook still not encouraging
We believe recovery in base oil prices presents only half the picture and that too incomplete if
seen in the context of movement in feedstock price. For now, we do not share market optimism
on near?term earnings recovery in NRL to the levels seen in 2011 as conditions required for
earnings rebound have become even more onerous. We highlight (1) a sharper increase in base
oil prices, (2) collapse of oil prices or (3) recovery in fuel oil margin as key pre?requisites for
earnings rebound.

Base oil price jump to have limited impact on margin
Base oil prices in the regional market have shown an upward bias in recent months. This is
driven by a combination of expected demand recovery and higher feedstock prices. Following a
recent increase of 5?7% in base oil price effective 5th April, domestic base oil prices are up 9?15%
YTD, versus 20% rise in Pak Rupee based crude prices. This implies limited impact on margin.
We estimate 3Q base oil margin of US$26/ton and 4QTD margin of US$32/ton, running below
our estimates for 2H. Hence we remain comfortable with our earnings estimates.

GRMs have weakened in 3Q
Meanwhile both simple and complex Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) have moved adversely.
Simple GRMs are down 70% to US$1/bbl while complex GRMs have slipped 30% to US$5.2/bbl.
Broadly speaking, product price increase has failed to keep pace with crude prices due to heavy
inventory and weak distillate demand. Product spread on Naphtha has failed to pick up and is
still trading at US$?7bbl. Fuel oil spread however has reverted to negative territory (to US$?
7/bbl) after a brief period of positive spread in Feb. This has badly hurt simple GRMs at a time
when oil prices are trading at elevated levels. For simple refinery like NRL, this would drag the
fuel margin.

NRL?range bound price movement seen
We see range bound stock price movement in NRL as market absorbs (1) opposing news flow on
base oil and fuel oil margin and (2) likely weak 3Q earnings. Trading at P/E of 5.6x on FY13E
earnings, valuation are not dirt cheap, in our view, even after 8% correction from recent high
given cloudy near?term earnings outlook and risk of change in pricing regulation. Among the
three pre?requisites for earnings rebound highlighted above, we see oil prices softness as a key
risk to our estimates as revision in base oil carries a large time lag. On medium term
perspective, key risk to our call is progress on NRL’s up?gradation project. Given long
construction period and paucity on details, this is not reflected in our estimates.

NRL?Financial Highlights
PRsmn 2011A 2012E 2013E
Sales 148,558 147,649 161,382
% ? 35% ?1% 9%
PAT 6,569 2,988 3,622
% ? 100% ?55% 21%
EPS 82.1 37.4 45.3
P/E (x) 3.1 6.8 5.6
EV/EBITDA 0.3 1.2 1.0
P/B (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7
Source: NRL, KASB estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: khawajaluqman on April 15, 2012, 06:12:07 PM
As slam O Alaikum to all,

Please guide me, is it right time to start accumulating NRL ? or wait ?

Any other share if not NRL ?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on April 16, 2012, 08:56:03 AM
As slam O Alaikum to all,

Please guide me, is it right time to start accumulating NRL ? or wait ?

Any other share if not NRL ?

It is recommended to be in cash. Market is starting its correction and prices of most of scrips will fall. So it is better to be on safe side.
Prefer ATRL instead NRL at  the end of correction period.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 19, 2012, 06:02:39 PM
National Refinery remains under duress
APRIL 19, 2012 BR RESEARCH 0 COMMENTS
Unlike stellars performance in FY11, things are definitely not going in National Refinerys favour.

The companys financials for 9MFY12 show that the refinerys profitability was axed by 55 percent, a sharp decline from 9MFY11.

Amid the pitiless debt spiral still looming over the energy sector with economic climate worsening, the companys performance has not been able to show optimism for the remaining part of the year.

During FY12 so far, the refineries have been facing tougher times.

A lot of the times, refinery sector produces negative margins which mean that the petroleum products produced, sell for less than the cost of the raw material - crude oil prices.

As a result, National Refinery posted a cut in sales volumes by around 2 percent during 8MFY12 compared to similar period FY11.

Moreover, the depreciating rupee and extraordinary exchange losses continued to weigh heavy on the profitability of the refinery.

On a comparative basis, 3QFY12 has been the worst so far for the company as the EPS dropped by 9 percent and 24 percent QoQ for 2QFY12 and 3QFY12 respectively.

Another reason for a sharp dip in fuel margins for NRL is the weakening position of the base oil market - a core competency of the company.

A reduction in lube base oil prices and hike in feed cost during 9MFY12 is reflected by truncated growth in the top line and a sizeable drop in the bottom line.

To offset the losses in the lube segment to some extent, the company raised the base oil prices in January FY12 by 4 to 6 percent as base oil and lube segment sales contribute the maximum to the overall revenues of the company.

The other segment of the refinery - fuel segment - also echoes the decline in the bottom line.

This is primarily due to the inability of the petroleum products to earn better spreads which resulted in under utilization of capacity.

The gross margin for 9MFY12 fell to a meager 3.08 percent compared to 6.73 percent during the corresponding period of FY11 partly due to a rise in the cost of sale by 23 percent, which eats up more than 90 percent on average of the total refinery turnover.

The net margin witnessed a substantial sever from 4.55 percent in 9MFY11 to 1.71 percent during 9MFY12.

Financial charges swelled by more than 7 times on account of exacerbated exchange losses amid a falling rupee value.

Moreover, the net profit was also trimmed during the said period due to torpid growth in other operating income, which is otherwise a fine push to the profitability.

On a macro level, oil sales for 9MFY12 have witnessed a decline of 2 percent.

This is a consequence of oil consumption clocking in a decline of 11 percent YoY during March FY12.

This was mainly due to a decrease in furnace oil consumption on account of circular debt crisis and JP due to suspension of NATO supply routes.

http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/2441:national-refinery-remains-under-duress/?date=2012-04-19
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 02, 2012, 09:52:25 PM
National Refinery-Initiating Coverage
After showing phenomenal performance in FY 2011, NRL’s profitability
has down turned for the year 2012 so far. Nevertheless, we believe that
NRL has potential to grow due to planned capacity expansion of its lube
refineries. NRL plans to expand its production of lubes by approximately
40%, in the coming years. As NRL was unable to take full advantage of
the lube’s market due to capacity constraints, this plan for capacity expansion
is very welcome.
One of the biggest issues facing NRL, as well as its peers, is the circular
debt, and the resulting capping of production. We do not foresee its resolution
any time soon, and therefore we expect NRL’s trade related debts
and payables to increase over the coming years.
We are initiating coverage on National Refinery with a target price of PKR
281.96. We have used the discounted cash flow methodology to arrive at
it. As of April 30,2012, NRL was trading at a price of PKR 229.04, which
implied an upside of 23% to our target price. As a result, we recommend
to BUY the scrip.

taurus
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 15, 2012, 01:12:18 AM
Just buy NRL below 244 , some big Tezi ahead InshALLAH ......
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 15, 2012, 01:10:24 PM
Just buy NRL below 244 , some big Tezi ahead InshALLAH ......

LAOOOOOOOOOO MAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL :biggrin:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 28, 2012, 11:01:25 AM
Just buy NRL below 244 , some big Tezi ahead InshALLAH ......


LAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NRL. ;)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Tayyab2011 on May 28, 2012, 11:10:00 AM
Just buy NRL below 244 , some big Tezi ahead InshALLAH ......


LAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NRL. ;)
Nice call Qadir Bhai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 29, 2012, 11:09:38 AM
LAOOOOOOOOOOO MAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL :D
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 29, 2012, 11:32:56 AM
Lets not be carried away by higher base oil prices
We believe the nascent rally in National Refinery Ltd’s stock price (up 9% from its recent low)
provides a good opportunity for profit taking. At a time when market cherishes 3?4% hike in
base oil prices and its potential impact on earnings, we highlight our key concerns as (1) current
revision in base oil price and resultant spot margins are unlikely to be sustainable, (2) heavy
inventory losses in 4Q, (3) exchange losses and (4) likely further weakness in fuel oil margin due
to weak economic growth backdrop in OECD, China and India. Near?term, we believe expected
inventory losses have the potential to pose downside risk to year?end dividend payout of
PRs25/sh. For now, we maintain our FY12 earning estimate of PRs37.4/sh and Neutral rating on
NRL (PO of PRs247.47/sh).

Spot base oil margin is unsustainable
A 3?4% increase in base oil prices effective 25th May belies a wider trend of oil price decline of
9% in May and came as key surprise to us. Since 3Q end, NRL has thrice raised base oil prices
with cumulative impact of 10% versus net decline in international oil prices of 11% in the same
period. To us, ~2% rupee depreciation since 3Q appears to be the only explanation. Whilst we
had expected base oil margins to improve in 4Q/FY13, we opine current divergent trend in base
oil and crude prices is unsustainable. Following current price increase, we estimate, base oil
margins have jumped to US$65/bbl (base on spot crude prices of US$106/bbl) and likely to
average US$42/bbl in 4Q, up from US$25/bbl in 3Q. We estimate PRs0.6/sh/mth and
PRs1.9/sh/mth impact on NRL based on last month’s average and spot crude prices.

Double whammy of inventory and exchange losses
Whilst weak base oil margin and volumes hurt NRL’s 9MFY12 earnings, volatility in crude prices
in 4Q has emerged as a major risk which has the potential to offset the positive impact of
recovery in base oil margin. Furthermore, heavy exchange losses due to rupee depreciation may
further drag the bottom?line. Based on 9MFY12 inventory details and QTD trend in crude prices
and exchange rate, we estimate NRL will have to face cumulative PRs850?900mn (PRs6.9?7.3/sh)
losses from inventory and exchange rate (PRs700?800mn from inventory losses). Barring any
one?offs, these losses alone can lead to (1) NRL facing losses in 4Q and (2) failure to maintain
cash payout.

What could surprise us?
Key upside risks to our view on base oil margin stem from (1) Steep decline in crude prices and
base oil price stickiness in local market, in line with the trend seen in 2008 (Base oil margin
peaked at US$80/bbl), and (2) NRL not passing down the impact of potential cut in Federal
Excise Duty (FED) on base oil (PRs7.15/litre or 5?7% of end product prices). Overall we believe
FY13 budget will prove to be a non?event however tax structure on base oil prices (FED, Custom
duty) has come under limelight recently.

Financial Highlights
PRsmn 2011A 2012E 2013E
Sales 148,558 147,649 161,382
% ? 35% ?1% 9%
PAT 6,569 2,988 3,622
% ? 100% ?55% 21%
EPS 82.1 37.4 45.3
P/E (x) 3.1 6.8 5.6
EV/EBITDA 0.3 1.2 1.0
P/B (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7
Source: NRL, KASB estimates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abid_ali on May 29, 2012, 11:35:23 AM
LAOOOOOOOOOOO MAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL :D
This laoooooo is not similar to FFC  at the highest rate, by the way ENGRO crossed FFC, laooooooooooo FFC is still alive
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 29, 2012, 11:48:34 AM
LAOOOOOOOOOOO MAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL :D
This laoooooo is not similar to FFC  at the highest rate, by the way ENGRO crossed FFC, laooooooooooo FFC is still alive

Tum FFC kai peechay kiu paray ho bhai ....... :D
FFC is not a kachra/satta it purely runs on fundamental n news of gds have put pressure on it...
once clarity comes FFC will run like rocket,,
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abid_ali on May 29, 2012, 11:56:38 AM
LAOOOOOOOOOOO MAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL :D
This laoooooo is not similar to FFC  at the highest rate, by the way ENGRO crossed FFC, laooooooooooo FFC is still alive

Tum FFC kai peechay kiu paray ho bhai ....... :D
FFC is not a kachra/satta it purely runs on fundamental n news of gds have put pressure on it...
once clarity comes FFC will run like rocket,,
before going to 150 it touched 108, now it ll go up. It is not a rocket science, but one should admit wrong call and if one gives dozens of call and by chance one become reality it is no judgement. One must be careful while giving calls all the time with out any logic. I saw mr Farzooq gives calculated and research based inputs but never lao or lo call.it is most decent way of advising other.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 29, 2012, 01:19:16 PM
LAOOOOOOOOOOO MAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL :D
This laoooooo is not similar to FFC  at the highest rate, by the way ENGRO crossed FFC, laooooooooooo FFC is still alive

Tum FFC kai peechay kiu paray ho bhai ....... :D
FFC is not a kachra/satta it purely runs on fundamental n news of gds have put pressure on it...
once clarity comes FFC will run like rocket,,
before going to 150 it touched 108, now it ll go up. It is not a rocket science, but one should admit wrong call and if one gives dozens of call and by chance one become reality it is no judgement. One must be careful while giving calls all the time with out any logic. I saw mr Farzooq gives calculated and research based inputs but never lao or lo call.it is most decent way of advising other.

Just one call lol see atrl,nrl,silk,fatima,pol,ppl,hspi etc
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abid_ali on May 29, 2012, 01:30:58 PM
LAOOOOOOOOOOO MAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL :D
This laoooooo is not similar to FFC  at the highest rate, by the way ENGRO crossed FFC, laooooooooooo FFC is still alive

Tum FFC kai peechay kiu paray ho bhai ....... :D
FFC is not a kachra/satta it purely runs on fundamental n news of gds have put pressure on it...
once clarity comes FFC will run like rocket,,
before going to 150 it touched 108, now it ll go up. It is not a rocket science, but one should admit wrong call and if one gives dozens of call and by chance one become reality it is no judgement. One must be careful while giving calls all the time with out any logic. I saw mr Farzooq gives calculated and research based inputs but never lao or lo call.it is most decent way of advising other.

Just one call lol see atrl,nrl,silk,fatima,pol,ppl,hspi etc
except silk every one would like these shares, they are not KACHARAS. It is no rocket science, pl not give calls on kachras
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: space on May 29, 2012, 10:19:32 PM
Quote
Just one call lol see atrl,nrl,silk,fatima,pol,ppl,hspi etc
Quote
except silk every one would like these shares, they are not KACHARAS. It is no rocket science, pl not give calls on kachras

Not trying to get in the middle of this banter between you guys but Abid, Qadir's satta call in SILK paid off almost immediately bro, anyone who got in was able to clear profits (unless they chose not to close position then its their own risk).

When he gave FFC call, everyone was expecting 140, FFC committed suicide, no one could have predicted it. CESS issue again, no one could have seen it coming.Yes I know some of his calls take a few days to materialize and sometimes things go differently from his dehaan. So cut him some slack, he is not uncle AKD or JS ;). To me he seems sincere. But everyone decide for themselves.

Just my two cents.

-Peace
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on June 05, 2012, 12:02:02 PM
NRL cuts base oil prices by PRs7.15/litre (Market reports)
As per latest price notification, National Refinery Limited has revised down base oil prices by
PRs7.15/litre (6?7% of the impact) for domestic sale of base oil reflecting the impact of
withdrawal of FED on base oil in the budget announced on 1st June. The relevant SRO issued on
1st June withdrew FED effective 2nd June. The revision in prices on base oil is margin neutral.
However given market expectation of NRL absorbing the impact of cut in FED to boost its
margin and higher earnings sensitivity, the cut in prices may hurt general sentiments on the
stock. We reiterate our concerns on NRL’s 4Q earnings due to heavy timing and exchange
losses.

kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: th3.inv3stor on June 05, 2012, 10:14:15 PM
i,ll be pleased id anyone comment about the risks to 4Q earning...???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on June 05, 2012, 11:46:19 PM
i,ll be pleased id anyone comment about the risks to 4Q earning...???

Exchange losses will hurt earnings badly
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: riz on June 09, 2012, 12:30:21 PM
Farzooq bhai NRL ki TP Btadijiye.aur Nrl hold kren ya sell i have 1000 @256.Seniors please comment?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on June 09, 2012, 01:14:03 PM
Farzooq bhai NRL ki TP Btadijiye.aur Nrl hold kren ya sell i have 1000 @256.Seniors please comment?

Although the current downtrend can possibly take to 200-210, but I advise hold for buying of 256, you will be able to recover any unrealised loss after a while {may be some months!}
Dividend of Rs. 20-25 also on cards with final result
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on June 15, 2012, 02:52:59 PM
Plz comments NRL ki buy kahan banti hai?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on July 09, 2012, 11:45:00 AM
Earnings drivers shifting to base?oil…
We revisit NRL’s key earnings drivers for FY13 and conclude overall core earnings momentum
should shift the gear relative to 2HFY12 however it is unlikely to support earnings recovery
beyond our base?case forecasts. Unlike 9MFY12 when strong recovery in fuel oil margin
compensated for a soft patch in base?oil margin, earnings in FY13 is likely to be driven by baseoil
given steep drop in oil prices and relative stickiness of domestic base?oil prices. Based on
current prices, we estimate base?oil margin to have recovered to US$55/bbl in 1QFY13 from a
low of US$33/bbl in 3QFY12.

…as near?term backdrop for fuel oil margin remains weak
Fuel oil margin is likely to emerge as a drag on NRL’s core earnings as regional demand/supply
dynamics are not encouraging. Already, few signs are visible with simple GRMs, a key indicator
for local refineries, hovering below US$2/bbl, down from US$5.63/bbl high seen in 3QFY12.
BofAML Global Energy team sees significant downside risk to GRMs in 1H13 (particularly on
gasoline cracks), given returning capacity in the EU/US and new capacity addition, which is
likely to coincide with the seasonally weak 'shoulder months' in 3Q post driving season. This
will set the stage for continued weakness in fuel oil spread for at least 1H.

No respite from settlement of receivables
Likely settlement of NRL’s overdue receivables of PRs9.8bn will prove to be earnings/cash
neutral in our view, as NRL does not receive interest income on overdue receivables nor does it
pays interest cost on overdue payables. Furthermore, the cash settlement will only cater to
principal portion. Just to highlight, under the proposed plans, NRL will receive PRs9.8bn (60%
of receivables) from PSO which it will pay to OGDC for fuel supplies.

4QFY12 earnings: Has market priced in the bad news?
Notwithstanding likely base?oil led margin recovery in FY13, our immediate concern remains
likely weak 4Q reading with heavy timing and FX losses (estimated at PRs2.0bn) overshadowing
core earnings. With 22% drop in crude prices and heavy start?of the quarter stock, we estimate
4Q inventory losses of PRs18.7/sh, which may drag FY12 EPS to PRs11.9. Just to recall, a 22%
drop in oil prices comes close to collapse in oil prices in 2Q09, when NRL posted PRs9/sh
losses. A strong come?back in crude prices at 4Q close is unlikely to have any implication for
inventory losses, in our view. In light of expected heavy losses in 4Q, we have scaled back our
final DPS estimate to PRs17.5/sh from PRs25/sh.

kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on August 09, 2012, 01:49:18 PM
BUY NRL AROUND 230-231 ..... :D
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 11, 2012, 03:00:43 PM
Any update on its margins ?
Expecting dps of 20rs but finding it difficult to calculate its earnings for 4q due to expected inventory and exchange losses.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 17, 2012, 01:39:03 PM
Any update on its margins ?
Expecting dps of 20rs but finding it difficult to calculate its earnings for 4q due to expected inventory and exchange losses.

nrl 4q might not be as good but margins have improved for the 1q of 2013. The annual payout and good 1q result might result in recovery of its share price.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on August 30, 2012, 11:31:37 AM
Earnings outlook changed for the better
Refinery sector’s earnings outlook has turned the corner in the last few months given (1)
improvement in Gross Refining Margins (GRMs), (2) oil prices have seen a strong rebound
QoQ, and (3) exchange rate is relatively stable. This provides us comfort to shift our stance on
refining sector from Underweight to Market Weight. We believe refining stocks can afford to
trade in a higher price bands. We lift our rating on NRL from Neutral to Buy with a revised PO
of PRs262.02/sh (up 6%). Relative to KSE?100, the sector has massively underperformed by
14% since 3Q as concerns on 4Q losses took center stage. We believe change in earnings
outlook warrant positive stance. We favor selective approach over a blanket?exposure on the
sector given our preference for defensive profile and concerns around 4Q earnings. For
investors looking for more exotic theme of inventory gains, ATRL and PRL may be preferred.

 GRMs: Benefiting from food shortages and unplanned outages: GRMs have posted
an unexpected recovery 1Q to date, with both complex (US$6.3/bbl) and simple (US$2.5
/bbl) GRMs averaging 15?69% higher QoQ. Spot Complex GRMs of US$9.3/bbl are infact
hovering at multi?quarter highs, hinting at possible correction. Two factors appear to have
supported the improvement in GRM; (1) higher gasoline demand due to drought in the US
corn belt, which rendered spread b/w Ethanol?Corn prices negative for ethanol blending in
gasoline, (2) a spate of unplanned shut?downs. Theoretical GRMs for local refineries have
increased in tandem with regional GRMs (see side bar).

 Oil prices rebound?possibility of reversal of 4Q losses: A strong recovery in oil prices
in 1Q (up 14% QoQ) has set the stage for unwinding of large portion of inventory losses
downstream companies may face in 4Q. Just to re?iterate, we expect NRL to book
PRs1,400mn inventory losses as oil prices slipped 22% in 4Q.

 Stable Rupee?absence of FX losses: Following sharp 4% devaluation in 4Q, Pak Rupee
has exhibited relative stability in 1Q and is down only 0.26% QTD. This should enable
refining companies to steer clear of possible huge FX losses to be faced in 4Q. Altogether,
we expect NRL to face PRs600mn FX losses in 4Q. The combined effects of inventory and
FX losses should drag NRL’s bottom?line into losses (LPS of PRs18 in 4Q).

Why we prefer NRL
An improving earnings environment has not only raised confidence on our earnings forecast
for NRL, it also suggests possible upside to base?case estimates. We for now leave estimates
unchanged however lift PO on reduced cost of capital. We rate NRL a Buy (21% total return)
and our preferred pick in refining space given its relative defensive earnings profile, cash
payout (8.5% D/Y), and undemanding valuation (FY13E P/E of 5.2x and EV/EBITDA of 1.3x).

kasb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: M&M on August 30, 2012, 09:59:30 PM
Any update on its margins ?
Expecting dps of 20rs but finding it difficult to calculate its earnings for 4q due to expected inventory and exchange losses.

nrl 4q might not be as good but margins have improved for the 1q of 2013. The annual payout and good 1q result might result in recovery of its share price.
:good
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 09, 2012, 01:42:45 PM
Lube base oil price raised
By Our Staff Reporter | 9/9/2012 12:00:00 AM
         
KARACHI, Sept 8: A leading oil refinery has increased prices of lube base oil by Rs9 per litre which would raise price of all lubricating oils by Rs11 per litre.

Condemning the increase, All-Pakistan Lubricant Manufacturers Association (APLMA) Chairman Mian Zahid Hussain stated that it was the seventh increase in a year, and sought an effective price control mechanism for manufacturers.

If Ogra announces the price of petroleum products, it should also review prices of lubricants.

He recalled that two leading refineries, the major shareholders of the lube base oil manufacturers, had so far increased the price by Rs51.50 per litre in the last 14 months.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 11, 2012, 01:38:08 PM
NRL with its superior production slate enjoys the highest GRMs: Amongst the listed refineries, NRL is the majorbeneficiary of improvement in middle distillates prices, as they make up around 52% of its product slate. While forATRL and PRL, middle distillates constitute around 44% and 43% of the production slate respectively. NRL’s Aug-12GRM clocked in at USD6.81bbl, up 4% YoY, while ATRL’s GRM for the said month averaged USD5.09/bbl, which isnearly 12% higher YoY.

Base oil margins edging up, NRL to benefit: With the recent 11% increase in the base oil prices by NRL, base oil margins have improved significantly. Rise in regional prices has prompted NRL to increase prices as NRL sells base oil at import price parity plus 10% duty built into it. Following the increase in prices, base oil spread against the furnace oil has increased to USD710/ton, which had decreased to just USD514/ton during 3QFY12. NRL has increased base oil prices thrice since April-12. Therefore, 1QFY13 average base oil spread against furnace oil now stands at USD606/ton, nearly 18% higher on QoQ basis. Since base oil contributes more than 85% to NRL’s bottomline, we expect that recent increase to yield good results for the company.

fs
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Ahmed on September 15, 2012, 12:48:48 AM
National Refinery: Inventory/exchange losses to spoil 4q profitability

Estimates: NRL's BOD is scheduled to meet on 15th Sep-12 to announce Fy12 results. We expect the company to report a loss of PKR 9.58/share in 4qFy12 which shall bring Fy12 earnings down by 79% Y/Y to PKR 17.47/share. Sharp drop in crude oil prices amid significant PKR/USD depreciation is likely to spoil pre tax profitability in 4q while application of minimum turnover tax shall further aggravate the bottom line of the company. We also expect a dividend of PKR 15/share along with the result.
   
Fuel segment to bear the brunt of inventory/exchange losses: Crude oil prices dropped by 24% during 4qFy12 from USD 123/bbl to USD 93/bbl. Moreover, PKR/USD exchange rate also depreciated by 4.4%. Thus, hefty inventory and exchange losses are likely to depress Fuel segment's earnings (exc other income) in 4q to a loss of PKR 15/share. Overall loss in Fy12 of the Fuel segment is likely to stand at PKR 19/share as compared to an EPS of PKR 2.90 in Fy11.   

Lube segment to buffer earnings decline:
Lagging crude oil, base oil prices picked up 14% Q/Q in 4qFy12 to USD 1,249/ton improving base oil spread by 50% during the same period to USD 577/ton. NRL followed as local base oil prices increased by 9% Q/Q. Higher base oil spreads are likely to increase Lube segment's earnings (exc other income) by 38% Q/Q to PKR 2.57/share in 4q.

Profitability to recover: With rupee relatively stable against dollar so far and rebound in crude oil prices, exchange losses are likely to remain minimal while we expect to see inventory gains in 1qFy13. Furthermore, decline in international base oil prices have bottomed out in Aug-12 at USD 1,090/ton and they are showing signs of recovery. Expecting increase in base oil prices going forward, NRL has increased local base oil price by PKR 9/ltr on 10th Sep-12. Thus absence of exchange losses, inventory gains and recovery in primary driver of company's earnings (base oil spread) are likely to bode well for profitability of the company.

 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 15, 2012, 12:22:31 PM
Complex refinery margins
Early july 5.5$
Mid july 8$
early aug 10$
Mid aug 11$
early sept 9$
Mid sept 8$
source reuters

For the 1st quarter refinery margins have improved but are volatile and unlikely to sustain. Play nrl for the first quarter results but with not more than 5% of your portfolio. Buy on dip with target of 260.

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: KSE Investor on September 15, 2012, 01:39:50 PM
Complex refinery margins
Early july 5.5$
Mid july 8$
early aug 10$
Mid aug 11$
early sept 9$
Mid sept 8$
source reuters

For the 1st quarter refinery margins have improved but are volatile and unlikely to sustain. Play nrl for the first quarter results but with not more than 5% of your portfolio. Buy on dip with target of 260.

 :thanks: last three months' price range is 226-253, EPS upto 3Q 27, 4Q will post loss, Current price is 230. What should be buying price keeping view the expected dps Rs 10 with the upcomingresults?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 15, 2012, 01:59:13 PM
Complex refinery margins
Early july 5.5$
Mid july 8$
early aug 10$
Mid aug 11$
early sept 9$
Mid sept 8$
source reuters

For the 1st quarter refinery margins have improved but are volatile and unlikely to sustain. Play nrl for the first quarter results but with not more than 5% of your portfolio. Buy on dip with target of 260.

 :thanks: last three months' price range is 226-253, EPS upto 3Q 27, 4Q will post loss, Current price is 230. What should be buying price keeping view the expected dps Rs 10 with the upcomingresults?

Expecting 2012 eps of 22-25rs with dividend of 15 rs. max downside 220.
1q 2013 eps can be around 12-15rs .
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 17, 2012, 09:38:48 AM
NRL EPS 32.74 dps 15
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: faizy777 on September 17, 2012, 11:38:17 AM
farzooq nrl ka buying level batao and exit kitne pe hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 17, 2012, 11:51:58 AM
farzooq nrl ka buying level batao and exit kitne pe hai

230-235 buying range 255-260 exit range
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 22, 2012, 10:00:09 AM
Complex refinery margins
Early july 5.5$
Mid july 8$
early aug 10$
Mid aug 11$
early sept 9$
Mid sept 8$
source reuters

For the 1st quarter refinery margins have improved but are volatile and unlikely to sustain. Play nrl for the first quarter results but with not more than 5% of your portfolio. Buy on dip with target of 260.

 :thanks: last three months' price range is 226-253, EPS upto 3Q 27, 4Q will post loss, Current price is 230. What should be buying price keeping view the expected dps Rs 10 with the upcomingresults?

Expecting 2012 eps of 22-25rs with dividend of 15 rs. max downside 220.
1q 2013 eps can be around 12-15rs .

COMPLEX REFINERY MARGINS                               
 Today                               9.31               
 Last 5 days                       8.44

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL4E8KL1K620120921
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on September 22, 2012, 11:23:13 AM
I gave up on this share for the very same reason.
And still no plans of getting back.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 03, 2012, 01:05:24 PM
Refinery Margins are still very strong ex 15rs target 260 to 280.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: faizy777 on October 05, 2012, 04:22:08 PM
farzooq yar atrl to chala dia ab nrl ko b chalado spot me......
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 07, 2012, 12:12:44 AM
Annual Report 2012 (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/annual_report_2012.pdf)
Profit After Tax  2011  2012 (Rs. Million)
Fuel Segment    773    (117)
Lube Segment   5796  2735

Profitability in Lube Segment decreased due to:-
1) Downward trend of lube based oils prices in international market
2) Increase in feed cost
Sale of Asphalt has shown a declining trend.

Break up value of the company stands at Rs. 315/-
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on October 07, 2012, 12:23:58 AM
Annual Report 2012 (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/annual_report_2012.pdf)
Profit After Tax  2011  2012 (Rs. Million)
Fuel Segment    773    (117)
Lube Segment   5796  2735

Profitability in Lube Segment decreased due to:-
1) Downward trend of lube based oils prices in international market
2) Increase in feed cost
Sale of Asphalt has shown a declining trend.

Break up value of the company stands at Rs. 315/-

you expect asphalt sales to pick up cuz of elections ?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on October 07, 2012, 12:32:46 AM
almost hopeless situation on asphalt sales  :down:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Saiti on October 11, 2012, 07:19:59 PM
BM on 18th at 4PM

http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=037229
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on October 11, 2012, 10:55:20 PM
Farooq bhai and other seniors plz suggest @what rate NRL should be sell.... i also avail divident....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 15, 2012, 09:58:16 PM
almost hopeless situation on asphalt sales  :down:

how much profit does asphalt contribute in total profit of nrl
...?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Murtaza8888 on October 17, 2012, 02:17:29 PM
Dear Farooq Bhai Or Other Seniors,

Can you tell me what going on NRL. ant idea or Comments?? This rate is buying or hold. ??? Plz. reply.

 :thanks:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 17, 2012, 02:40:48 PM
Dear Farooq Bhai Or Other Seniors,

Can you tell me what going on NRL. ant idea or Comments?? This rate is buying or hold. ??? Plz. reply.

 :thanks:

it is a hold good result is expected tomorrow
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Murtaza8888 on October 17, 2012, 02:45:46 PM
Dear Farooq Bhai Or Other Seniors,

Can you tell me what going on NRL. ant idea or Comments?? This rate is buying or hold. ??? Plz. reply.

 :thanks:

it is a hold good result is expected tomorrow

 :thanks: For Reply Farooq Bhai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2012, 09:26:40 AM
NRL eps 10.03
below expectations
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Saiti on October 19, 2012, 09:53:25 AM
NRL eps 10.03
below expectations

Poker gave a hint well in time.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: faizy777 on October 19, 2012, 10:16:10 AM
ab to yeh 250 per b mushkil se jaega farzooq mian wht u say?

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2012, 11:07:18 AM
Expecting 2012 eps of 22-25rs with dividend of 15 rs. max downside 220.
1q 2013 eps can be around 12-15rs .

NRL eps 10.03
below expectations

ab to yeh 250 per b mushkil se jaega farzooq mian wht u say?


Yes target reduced to 250.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 20, 2012, 09:59:07 AM
National Refinery’s profits hurt by lube business
By Our Correspondent

Published: October 20, 2012

 Despite higher oil prices, gross margins remained stagnant at 4%, while gross profits rose to Rs1.6 billion, according to Topline Securities analyst Nauman Khan. PHOTO: AFP/FILE

KARACHI: 
National Refinery – part of the refinery wing of the sole vertically integrated oil conglomerate of the country Attock Group – posted a profit of Rs802 million for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2012-13, down 3% compared to Rs828 million in the corresponding quarter of the preceding year.
 
The company’s net sales, however, jumped 17.1% to Rs44 billion.
 
Despite higher oil prices, gross margins remained stagnant at 4%, while gross profits rose to Rs1.6 billion, according to Topline Securities analyst Nauman Khan.
 
The refinery’s healthy volumes, impact of increase in its fuel segment margins on the back of strong gross refinery margins and inventory gains supported profitability.
 
However, the company was not able to sustain the healthy growth in sales as profitability was diluted by decrease in lubricant segment’s profitability. Subdued performance in the company’s lubricant business because of stretched margins dented overall refining margins.
 
The lubricant segment faced adverse operating environment due to subdued international lube margins and suppressed demand for the derivative as well of asphalt locally.
 
Analysts estimated lube profits to dive 60-65% to Rs400 million from Rs1.1 billion last year whereas fuel refinery, which registered a loss of Rs297 million previous year, was likely to post a profit of Rs400 million.
 
Other major factor which pulled down earnings was a 34% decline in other income to Rs313 million.
 
Attock Refinery and National Refinery have been gaining market share in the industry, gaining the ground lost by their biggest competitor and market leader Pak Arab Refinery. National Refinery increased its market share from 18% to 21% while Attock Refinery’s share grew to from 18% to 19% in fiscal 2012.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: faizy777 on October 20, 2012, 04:25:07 PM
farzooq wht u say hold ya sell?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 22, 2012, 12:16:02 AM
NRL eps 10.03
below expectations

it is continuously posting below expectation result i thing i should get rid of it ....  :(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on October 22, 2012, 06:42:51 AM
Lube segment gnawing NRL’s earnings

October 22, 2012 BR RESEARCH 0 Comments
 Favourable international oil prices, relatively stable currency against a dollar bill and the bullish trend in the international petroleum product prices during the period 1QFY13 should portend better profitability of the local refinery sector.

Where stable rupee translating into lower exchange losses, is likely to lift the bottom line, gain in the international oil is expected to bring inventory gains for the refineries. Hence, analysts have been gushing about higher gross refining margins during 1QFY13.

Unluckily, National Refinery Limited of Attock Group did not seem to benefit even when it registered a fall of 24 percent YoY in finance cost. This was primarily because of the sluggish lube margins in 1QFY13 that underplayed the profitability of the only lube refinery.

The gains from a modest increase in the top line and a six percent step in the gross profits YoY during 1QFY13 did not translate well to the bottom line and the earnings for the period contracted by three percent over comparable period. With the EPS for the first quarter FY13 stagnant at Rs10, gross and net margins were a tad short of similar period last year.

Fuel segment profits went from red to green due to favourable refinery environment, underscored by healthy gross refinery margins and higher inventory gains. However, the overall profitability crumbled under the lube segments dull performance.

Both, the local demand for lubes an international lube market are responsible for the poor performance of the lubes and base oils. The final pinch came from extra-ordinarily low other income that always provides a buffer in times of need.

In contrast, Attock Refinery Limited, the other refinery of Attock Group seemed to have benefited from the encouraging fundamentals. Similar factors lead to increased profitability of ATRL: improved gross refining margins, favourable pricing scenario, higher cash balances and lower financial charges lifted the profits by a whopping 65 percent YoY.

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: faizy777 on October 24, 2012, 05:30:56 PM
nrl kab chalega farzooq mian?? ap k paas nrl hai?? kitne pe sell kerna chaiye??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 24, 2012, 06:04:48 PM
nrl kab chalega farzooq mian?? ap k paas nrl hai?? kitne pe sell kerna chaiye??

reduced my holding. target 250
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: space on October 25, 2012, 01:00:53 AM
nrl kab chalega farzooq mian?? ap k paas nrl hai?? kitne pe sell kerna chaiye??

reduced my holding. target 250

Bot at 230, ate dps of 15. sold all after poor result at 226, my one and only bet in refining sector did not fly, ATRL and PRL the ones I did not invest in rocked, and this is why I despise NRL, it loves to disappoint me, don't know why but NRL has always brought me tension and no real profits, just my luck I suppose
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 30, 2012, 01:55:23 PM
we have also revisited our outlook for NRL (National Refinery). Lube business, that traditionally have been its main stay, is continued to faced with adverse operating environment on account of reduce margins and demand outlook. We have reduced our FY13 earning forecast significantly by 37% to Rs32 per share while slashing our TP by 16% to Rs205 per share. Our stance on the stock is also downgraded from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’.
 
NRL: FY13 EPS Rs32
 
With international lube margins coming under pressure due to reduced lubricant demand, we expect that to bode negatively for NRL, the only lube refinery of the country. In this scenario, we have revisited our lube margin assumption and have slashed it to US$40 per barrel. In addition, Asphalt business, another major segment of lube business, is faced with constrain demand due to lower construction projects from the government. Overall, we have revised our FY13 earning forecast by 37% to Rs32 per share

topline
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 31, 2012, 02:11:22 AM
stop hit at 215 sold 214.5
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 31, 2012, 10:04:05 AM
stop hit at 215 sold 214.5

farzooq bhai is there any negative for refineries or market is over reacting on its result
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 31, 2012, 10:35:50 AM
stop hit at 215 sold 214.5

farzooq bhai is there any negative for refineries or market is over reacting on its result

overall refinery margins coming down and lube margins for nrl are also down
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on November 01, 2012, 09:31:46 AM
farzooq bhai NRL in rates pay bohout acha lag raha ha for mid to long term ... !!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 16, 2012, 05:04:52 PM
Can any one knows why NRL shares is going down day by day?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on November 16, 2012, 05:10:44 PM
if you read last 2-3 pages of this topic, you will come to know.
However, it is due to weak lube business.

190-200 is a strong support area. So I dont expect much downside from here. Upside will depend upon recovery in margins and sales.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 16, 2012, 05:15:37 PM
for FY13 its eps will be around 35. Will it go below 200? What is the current position of sales and lube business for 2Q?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 16, 2012, 06:31:36 PM
Nrl is suffering because of low refinery and lube margins .
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 16, 2012, 07:25:15 PM
So wht about ATRL? how he is posting greater earnings...
What is the future of NRL if oil sustain at 85 levels?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 20, 2012, 09:12:41 PM
Seniors: Can u pls advice why there is a big volume every day in NRL but price remain unchange? Market is increasing day by day and this share is decreasing?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 22, 2012, 07:06:06 PM
Can anyone pls comment on this script?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 22, 2012, 07:18:53 PM
Can anyone pls comment on this script?

Refinery and lube margins are down for now.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 22, 2012, 07:21:18 PM
Farooq bh: Can u pls share lube and refinery margin as of  today?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 22, 2012, 07:26:16 PM
Farooq bh: Can u pls share lube and refinery margin as of  today?

http://www.pakinvestorsguide.com/index.php/topic,422.msg103061/highlight,omc.html#lastPost
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: space on November 23, 2012, 12:42:40 AM
Can anyone pls comment on this script?

WTI futures slipped below 85 briefly, maybe its a start of another bear run, and if that happens, if oil drops below 83/81 levels then refining margins will suffer even more, its an uncertain time for the refining sector that is why there is a lack of comments, market is holding its breath to see which direction oil takes.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 23, 2012, 12:26:57 PM
Ok. Make sense. But market is increasing day by day and this share slip below 11500 levels... If we assume eps around 36-40 this share worth or not?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: space on November 23, 2012, 08:05:23 PM
we have also revisited our outlook for NRL (National Refinery). Lube business, that traditionally have been its main stay, is continued to faced with adverse operating environment on account of reduce margins and demand outlook. We have reduced our FY13 earning forecast significantly by 37% to Rs32 per share while slashing our TP by 16% to Rs205 per share. Our stance on the stock is also downgraded from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’.
 
NRL: FY13 EPS Rs32
 
With international lube margins coming under pressure due to reduced lubricant demand, we expect that to bode negatively for NRL, the only lube refinery of the country. In this scenario, we have revisited our lube margin assumption and have slashed it to US$40 per barrel. In addition, Asphalt business, another major segment of lube business, is faced with constrain demand due to lower construction projects from the government. Overall, we have revised our FY13 earning forecast by 37% to Rs32 per share

topline

Ok. Make sense. But market is increasing day by day and this share slip below 11500 levels... If we assume eps around 36-40 this share worth or not?

Well 1st off you have to reconcile what the expected EPS is, you predict 38. topline 32
Secondly what PE does one use 6 or 7 ?
Based of EPS of 32 and PE of 7 FAIR PRICE comes to 224
Based of EPS of 38 and PE of 7 FAIR PRICE comes to 266
AVERAGE OF THE ABOVE 2 comes to 245

Using a PE of 6 on the above two EPS expectations and then taking the average, fair price comes to 210
Now lets avg further i.e (210+245)/2 = 227.5 which represents 8% upside, then there is the added market risk, I mean global recession does not bode well for oil, and KSE at all time high so who knows when it might correct. There is always the random chance that some Big Broker might play a game in it and it rockets up, that event would be totally random and cannot be accounted for.

Keeping in view of the above to me NRL is certainly not worth buying into at these levels and under present circumstances. Below 200 would a better place to buy, but I do not know if it will go that low.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 23, 2012, 09:53:11 PM
ok, if we consider eps at around thirties , fourties range, its break value is 315, which is quite high... I think no body in the entire sector have this break up value. Secondly i need to know can NRL give the bonus or not? why NRL is not giving bonus for around 6 to 7 year?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: space on November 26, 2012, 12:35:25 PM
ok, if we consider eps at around thirties , fourties range, its break value is 315, which is quite high... I think no body in the entire sector have this break up value. Secondly i need to know can NRL give the bonus or not? why NRL is not giving bonus for around 6 to 7 year?

Bonus is only good when company is in an ascendency NRL is not, bonus will increase float and drop price even further don't you think ?

To me breakup value is only relevant for companies which are in deep losses and one suspects a possible bankruptcy in the future, which is not the case with NRL so for me breakup value is of no importance in this case
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on November 26, 2012, 02:17:15 PM
@ space
nice work bro

in my opinion, as far as fundamentals are concerned, the bigger pie of NRL profits came from lube segment which is not doing well because of low demand. (I dont understand why the hell its like this). Fuel segment is hardly break even most of the time. Other income from interest is also to be low going forward as rates are down.
Those having should hold and eat dividends.
Those not having should avoid whole refinery sector.
200-190 is good support without kse-100 correction. 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 26, 2012, 05:22:22 PM
Thanks a lot Space BH and Poker.

But i feel that this item is a good script in these days. Normally every script has shown some positive development in recent days...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Abdul Qadir on November 26, 2012, 05:34:19 PM
ok, if we consider eps at around thirties , fourties range, its break value is 315, which is quite high... I think no body in the entire sector have this break up value. Secondly i need to know can NRL give the bonus or not? why NRL is not giving bonus for around 6 to 7 year?

Bonus is only good when company is in an ascendency NRL is not, bonus will increase float and drop price even further don't you think ?

To me breakup value is only relevant for companies which are in deep losses and one suspects a possible bankruptcy in the future, which is not the case with NRL so for me breakup value is of no importance in this case



Book values are often used for companies who invest in Different sectors to get the returns and these investments are mostly liquid like Insurance Sector where the main driving force is the investment value rather than their core operations so these companies are mainly value on their book values.
In times of acquisition book values also plays a vital role.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 27, 2012, 12:37:01 PM
NRL is showing some strength. Probably u will get 10 - 20 Rs in near future. InshaAllah. Risk is low and gains are more. Very attractive at this level.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on December 03, 2012, 05:57:09 PM
Movement started... Senior Pls comments
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Saiti on December 03, 2012, 06:17:33 PM
Movement started... Senior Pls comments

Removed!!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on December 05, 2012, 05:47:41 PM
Can any one suggest the  december trend for this script?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Saiti on December 05, 2012, 05:56:17 PM
Movement started... Senior Pls comments
NRL is showing some strength. Probably u will get 10 - 20 Rs in near future. InshaAllah. Risk is low and gains are more. Very attractive at this level.
WTH!!!

Farzooq, what is this!
I did not make this post. I seriously didn't. Probably an admin signed in with my ID due to some reason and forgot to switch ID before replying.
Remove this post please.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on December 05, 2012, 07:20:58 PM
Movement started... Senior Pls comments
NRL is showing some strength. Probably u will get 10 - 20 Rs in near future. InshaAllah. Risk is low and gains are more. Very attractive at this level.
WTH!!!

Farzooq, what is this!
I did not make this post. I seriously didn't. Probably an admin signed in with my ID due to some reason and forgot to switch ID before replying.
Remove this post please.

rofl :D
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Saiti on December 05, 2012, 09:02:43 PM
Movement started... Senior Pls comments
NRL is showing some strength. Probably u will get 10 - 20 Rs in near future. InshaAllah. Risk is low and gains are more. Very attractive at this level.
WTH!!!

Farzooq, what is this!
I did not make this post. I seriously didn't. Probably an admin signed in with my ID due to some reason and forgot to switch ID before replying.
Remove this post please.

rofl :D

 :mad:
And you think i am kidding.  uuu
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Poker Face on December 05, 2012, 09:08:46 PM
Technically it is possible to do it with a little effort. Actually it was posted by Ali earlier but somehow your name came when it was quoted.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Saiti on December 05, 2012, 10:02:50 PM
Technically it is possible to do it with a little effort. Actually it was posted by Ali earlier but somehow your name came when it was quoted.

Ok poker face bro... Mein ney aaj daikha tou post he meray naam se thee, without quoting. I however edited it late http://www.pakinvestorsguide.com/index.php/topic,295.msg104785.html#msg104785
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on December 13, 2012, 12:45:30 PM
I am stuck... Pls advice next step...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: 007 on December 13, 2012, 01:03:19 PM
shift to prl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on December 13, 2012, 02:35:18 PM
oh really. Does it make sense...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on December 17, 2012, 02:03:57 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=039552
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on December 19, 2012, 07:09:58 PM
koi isko bhi tu pucho... fauji cement bqan gia hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 23, 2012, 02:19:52 PM
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2012
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 4,451.872
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,618.384
EPS = 32.74
DIVIDEND = 150%(F)
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 19/10/2012
BOOK CLOSURE FROM 12/10/2012
BOOK CLOSURE TO 19/10/2012


can any one tell me the dispatch date of this dividend
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on December 23, 2012, 03:43:35 PM
I got dividend cheque i think last week of November or 1st week of December....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 23, 2012, 11:07:41 PM
I got dividend cheque i think last week of November or 1st week of December....

thx
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on December 23, 2012, 11:36:18 PM
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2012
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 4,451.872
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,618.384
EPS = 32.74
DIVIDEND = 150%(F)
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 19/10/2012
BOOK CLOSURE FROM 12/10/2012
BOOK CLOSURE TO 19/10/2012


can any one tell me the dispatch date of this dividend

you may contact their share registrar for any further details

Share Registrar

Noble Computer Services (Pvt.) Ltd.,
First Floor, House of Habib Building,
(Siddiqsons Tower), 3-Jinnah Cooperative
Housing Society, Main Shahrah-e-Faisal,
Karachi – 75350,
Contact No. 34325482-87,
Fax: 34325442
Website: www.noble-computers.com
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on December 24, 2012, 12:12:27 AM
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2012
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 4,451.872
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,618.384
EPS = 32.74
DIVIDEND = 150%(F)
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 19/10/2012
BOOK CLOSURE FROM 12/10/2012
BOOK CLOSURE TO 19/10/2012


can any one tell me the dispatch date of this dividend

you may contact their share registrar for any further details

Share Registrar

Noble Computer Services (Pvt.) Ltd.,
First Floor, House of Habib Building,
(Siddiqsons Tower), 3-Jinnah Cooperative
Housing Society, Main Shahrah-e-Faisal,
Karachi – 75350,
Contact No. 34325482-87,
Fax: 34325442
Website: www.noble-computers.com


yup i will contact them tomorrow as i haven't received dividend
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on December 29, 2012, 03:37:37 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August and USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September. In current month i.e. October 2012, prices of the product have decrease by USD 15 PMT (1%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 1090 - 1105 PMT. Since January 2012, prices have gain by USD 30 PMT (3%) in October 2012.

•SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 2% in November 2012 as compared to previous month price.

SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 6% in dec 2012

Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 04, 2013, 01:58:45 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August and USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September. In current month i.e. October 2012, prices of the product have decrease by USD 15 PMT (1%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 1090 - 1105 PMT. Since January 2012, prices have gain by USD 30 PMT (3%) in October 2012.

•SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 2% in November 2012 as compared to previous month price.

SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 6% in dec 2012

Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT

http://www.icis.com/Articles/2013/01/03/9627876/outlook-13-asian-base-oil-demand-to-grow-volatility-to.html
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on January 10, 2013, 05:59:57 PM
Oil above $94... Can we expect a rally in refinery sector?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on January 10, 2013, 06:52:44 PM
Oil above $94... Can we expect a rally in refinery sector?

You are looking at the wrong oil price. Check Arab light or Dubai .. they are more relevant to Pakistani refineries
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on January 10, 2013, 07:01:17 PM
its ok but there trading sees to be same if oil increase then all the other components will also increase. Is that so? If i am wrong pls correct me
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on January 17, 2013, 09:27:49 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=040289

board meeting on sat 26, result will be posted on 28th morning
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on January 21, 2013, 06:04:08 PM
Wht is the expected earning for HY13?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on January 28, 2013, 10:25:36 AM
19.59 for half year, 9.56 for the quarter

http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=040562&pagesize=1&pageno=2
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 09, 2013, 12:29:13 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August and USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September. In current month i.e. October 2012, prices of the product have decrease by USD 15 PMT (1%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 1090 - 1105 PMT. Since January 2012, prices have gain by USD 30 PMT (3%) in October 2012.

•SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 2% in November 2012 as compared to previous month price.

SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 6% in dec 2012

Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT

SN 500 Singapore Base Oil FOB prices decrease by 2% in January 2013 as compared to previous month price.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 14, 2013, 07:01:28 PM
This is the only stock which i think has lost the value more than 20% despite market is increasing day by day? Is there is any inside? EPS for half year is 20 and expected earning is around 40. Traing at 200 levels. Can any one suggest the future trend?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on February 15, 2013, 01:01:20 PM
Its eyed @ 175-185 >>> amongst refineries >>>> Stay Concious when entering >>>> its DPS of 15 Rs instead of 20 had compelled this scrip to Trade around 175-185 only >>>> Good Luck
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 15, 2013, 01:24:53 PM
DPS 15 is for previous year., and i think its EPS is better in the year around 40, it can easily achieve. Why panic selling? It is in 11k 12k index it was trading at 240 levels despite earning was not attractive? and this year eps is good but selling continues?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 15, 2013, 01:30:46 PM
(http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee214/farzooq/baseoil_zps29a811f7.jpg)

Refinery margins have recovered but lube base oil is at its lows the main reason for nrls underperformance. Major profits of nrl comes from lube segment.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 15, 2013, 01:36:44 PM
can u pls let me know, which part we have to see in the graph in order to get the correct picture? if in low it is performing good.. eps around 40, so when it lube base margin recovered, it will easily make eps at around 50-60? wht do you feel?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 15, 2013, 01:46:23 PM
can u pls let me know, which part we have to see in the graph in order to get the correct picture? if in low it is performing good.. eps around 40, so when it lube base margin recovered, it will easily make eps at around 50-60? wht do you feel?

http://www.nrlpak.com/products.html

Eps 30-35 in case there is no recovery in base oil. Yes it will easily make eps of 60+ if base oil recovers to 2011 highs.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 15, 2013, 02:03:51 PM
Now wht is the range ... 202 -203 is good buy or wait for more to decrease...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 19, 2013, 10:23:26 PM
Base oils 2013: Little sign of price pick-up
15 February 2013 09:50  [Source: ICB]

It has not been an easy time for base oil producers. Most markets around the world have seen a sustained period of sluggish demand, and new plants in the Middle East and Asia have injected extra capacity into the market. The inevitable result has been a slide in pricing from mid-2011.

At the start of 2013, the outlook does not look much better, with considerable uncertainty in the market, caused by the ongoing economic slowdown and softness in core end-use markets, such as automotive.

http://www.icis.com/Articles/2013/02/18/9641301/base-oils-2013-little-sign-of-price-pick-up.html
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 22, 2013, 08:05:14 PM
kia karain is share ka? rukta hi nahin hai?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 24, 2013, 06:23:05 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August, USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September, USD 1090 – 1105 PMT in October, USD 1070 – 1085 PMT in November, USD 945 – 960 PMT in December 2012 and USD 925 – 940 PMT in January 2013. In current month i.e. February 2013, prices of the product have increase by USD 15 PMT (2%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 935 - 950 PMT.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on February 24, 2013, 07:24:04 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August, USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September, USD 1090 – 1105 PMT in October, USD 1070 – 1085 PMT in November, USD 945 – 960 PMT in December 2012 and USD 925 – 940 PMT in January 2013. In current month i.e. February 2013, prices of the product have increase by USD 15 PMT (2%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 935 - 950 PMT.

whats the expectation from it in comming days as it has not performed since long ?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on February 26, 2013, 12:44:08 PM
NRL: Expect subdued earnings to persist
We cut our earnings forecasts for NRL by 20-26% for FY13E/14F, given rising
competition from imports in its lubricant business. In 1HFY13, NRL’s earnings
clocked in at Rs19.59/share vis-à-vis Rs19.82/share in 1HFY12. The nominal
decline in earnings was mainly due to (1) 3%YoY lower gross profits amid weak
lube margins and (2) 9%YoY decline in other operating income because of
monetary easing by the Central Bank. Note that, NRL has aligned its selling price
of Lube Base Oils with international prices to remain competitive against imports
(mostly smuggled products).
We maintain our ‘Hold’ rating on the stock (revised Target Price Rs230) owing to
lack of near term triggers for stock price performance. That said, we eye possible
excitement ahead of its full year result, where the refinery is expected to announce
a cash payout of Rs15/share (FY13E DY of 7%).

NRL: 1HFY13 result highlight
(Rs mn) 1HFY13 1HFY12 YoY?% 2QFY13 1QFY13 QoQ%? 2QFY12 YoY?%
Net Sales 8 5,296 81,666 4% 4 1,260 4 4,036 -6% 4 4,058 -6%
Gross profit 2 ,847 2,934 -3% 1 ,247 1 ,600 -22% 1 ,419 -12%
Other income 1 ,119 1,225 -9% 8 06 3 13 158% 7 47 8%
Operating profit 3 ,015 3,170 -5% 1 ,594 1 ,421 12% 1 ,649 -3%
PBT 2 ,516 2,574 -2% 1 ,243 1 ,273 -2% 1 ,249 0%
PAT 1 ,567 1,585 -1% 7 65 8 02 -5% 7 56 1%
EPS 1 9.59 19.82 -1% 9 .56 1 0.03 -5% 9 .46 1%
Source: Company accounts

we expect NRL profitability to remain subdued on the back of
competition from imports in its lubricant business.

NRL: Earnings revison
(Rs) FY13E FY14F
Old 51.7 60.1
New 41.3 44.7
Change -20.2% -25.6%
Source: JS Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 27, 2013, 07:49:25 PM
Lao NRL to 225...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on February 28, 2013, 02:48:01 PM
 :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on February 28, 2013, 10:30:52 PM
:dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:

what happen to NRL suddenly ....?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on March 01, 2013, 04:07:12 PM
Normally NRL work in same style... It break the workstation and shoot it like a rocket... I was talking on the phobe with the agent it was 221.5 and suddenly it locks... wht a magic... I sold all my holding and now enjoying ... :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup: :good :good :good
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 03, 2013, 11:05:37 AM
Global refining outlook appears less risky
Contrary to expectations, 2012 saw global refining system tighten as a consequence of
significant unplanned outages and project delays. In our view, this is partly a structural issue,
owing to (1) growing complexity & (2) the relative lack of refining experience of companies
bringing on new projects. Global refining macros indicates capacity growth should reach
1mnbpd in CY13, which is significantly less than prior expectations of 1.6mnbpd vs. expected
demand growth of 0.73mnbpd, suggesting global incremental surplus of ~0.3mnbpd in CY13.
Any further delays or start?up problems could soak this up and render market vulnerable to
temporary price spikes without unforeseen demand shocks.

Chinese projects are highly doubtful in terms of impact on GRMs, despite delays
Most significant capacity growth for refining is coming from China with ~49% (1.2mn bpd) of
incremental supply worldwide during CY13?14E. We believe that most of added capacities in
China are replacing numerous tea?pot refineries (high?cost independent refineries) that account
for ~16% of the nation’s total refining capacities and the location of new refineries suggest that
potential excess can hardly be exported. This implies actual impact on regional GRMs appears
fairly limited. We believe this represents an upside potential to GRMs.

Cautiously positive refinery outlook
We see upside potential given GRMs of US$8.5/bbl in 3Q driven by heavy maintenance period
in the US & Europe, while higher?than?normal capacity outage in Asia should continue to
support the trend in 4Q. We believe that gasoline crack will extended its bullish tone
(US$18.5/bbl) on growing concerns over near?term supply crunch amid a slew of annual
turnaround in Mar?Apr, coupled with improved shipments to Indonesia. For kerosene, we
expect correction due to slowing heating oil demand amid rising temperatures in North Asia. On
the other hand, naphtha losses have widened to US$4.0/bbl after a brief spike in Jan?Feb amid
announcements from a number of naphtha crackers in North Asia about feedstock switch to
butane. Fuel oil remains depressed. Looking ahead, expected restart of some refineries, oil
demand growth in Europe & China and decent gasoline demand in the US will dictate GRMs.

We rate NRL as Buy (PO PRs308/sh) and ATRL as Neutral (PO PRs228/sh)
With the landscape for refining turning incrementally positive, we rate NRL as a Buy with a PO
of PRs308/sh and our preferred pick given its relatively defensive EPS profile, and attractive vals
(FY13E P/E 5.9x, D/Y 6.7%). On the other hand, we place ATRL as Neutral with PO of PRs228/sh.
Another quarter of strong earnings announcement on the cards
Driven by strong GRMs, we estimate ATRL 3Q EPS at ~PRs7.5?9.0. On the other hand, we expect
NRL to post 3Q EPS of ~PRs8.5?10.0. However marginal inventory & exchange losses could drag
profits for both companies given 1.7% decline in crude prices and 1.7% PKR depreciation in 3Q.

KASB
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on April 09, 2013, 12:21:25 PM
We rate NRL as Buy (PO PRs308/sh) KASB

Dear Experts Comments Please. Thnx
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on April 16, 2013, 01:29:15 PM
NRL shows wrong result... Brothers pls buy as much as u can. EPS 11+ for this quarter. Haly year EPS is 19+ Total EPS for 9 M should be 30.5 around and their result are showing 24. Big fraud by NRL ... pls purchase...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 16, 2013, 02:03:52 PM
NRL shows wrong result... Brothers pls buy as much as u can. EPS 11+ for this quarter. Haly year EPS is 19+ Total EPS for 9 M should be 30.5 around and their result are showing 24. Big fraud by NRL ... pls purchase...

 :o :o

thats actually true ..

q1 is 10.03, q2 9.56 and q3 11.5 ....

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: M&M on April 16, 2013, 03:23:56 PM
NRL shows wrong result... Brothers pls buy as much as u can. EPS 11+ for this quarter. Haly year EPS is 19+ Total EPS for 9 M should be 30.5 around and their result are showing 24. Big fraud by NRL ... pls purchase...

 :o :o

thats actually true ..

q1 is 10.03, q2 9.56 and q3 11.5 ....

lol yeah operating profit mey 4,887,518 ki jaga 3,887,518 likh dia hey
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hobbyist on April 16, 2013, 04:54:26 PM
the revision posted on kse says the 9 month data was alright, the quarter eps was meant to be 4.61 n not 11.5  :thumbsdown_anim:
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=043020&pagesize=1&pageno=2
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: babar4289 on April 16, 2013, 10:31:52 PM
sab trade wapis honi chahaye ye khula tazad nahi  :rtfm:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 30, 2013, 12:02:14 AM
 http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/third_quarter_march_31_2013.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 05, 2013, 06:10:39 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August, USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September, USD 1090 – 1105 PMT in October, USD 1070 – 1085 PMT in November, USD 945 – 960 PMT in December 2012 and USD 925 – 940 PMT in January 2013. In current month i.e. February 2013, prices of the product have increase by USD 15 PMT (2%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 935 - 950 PMT.

As per the data analysis by our team, FOB SN 500 Singapore current prices reported in the range of USD 980 - 995 PMT
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on May 06, 2013, 12:16:10 AM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August, USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September, USD 1090 – 1105 PMT in October, USD 1070 – 1085 PMT in November, USD 945 – 960 PMT in December 2012 and USD 925 – 940 PMT in January 2013. In current month i.e. February 2013, prices of the product have increase by USD 15 PMT (2%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 935 - 950 PMT.


As per the data analysis by our team, FOB SN 500 Singapore current prices reported in the range of USD 980 - 995 PMT


whats the impact on NRL
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on May 06, 2013, 12:34:06 AM

whats the impact on NRL

refinery margins and base oil prices still at lows 4q results wont be any different from 3q
full yr eps would be around 30-32 rs
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on May 06, 2013, 10:24:02 AM

whats the impact on NRL

refinery margins and base oil prices still at lows 4q results wont be any different from 3q
full yr eps would be around 30-32 rs

thx
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on May 20, 2013, 03:43:23 PM
Bahut hogaya Kal lock lagao... Tomorrow will be the good day for NRL holders InshaAllah...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on May 21, 2013, 11:40:18 AM
 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: M&M on May 31, 2013, 02:32:02 PM
the revision posted on kse says the 9 month data was alright, the quarter eps was meant to be 4.61 n not 11.5  :thumbsdown_anim:
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=043020&pagesize=1&pageno=2

http://www.secp.gov.pk/orders/pdf/Orders_2013/50_Order_NRL.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on May 31, 2013, 03:05:20 PM
the revision posted on kse says the 9 month data was alright, the quarter eps was meant to be 4.61 n not 11.5  :thumbsdown_anim:
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=043020&pagesize=1&pageno=2

http://www.secp.gov.pk/orders/pdf/Orders_2013/50_Order_NRL.pdf

thanks nice share. hcar ko bhi fine karein.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Shah on June 03, 2013, 03:21:39 AM
NRL ka kia dhiyaan hy bhaio ????
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Shah on June 03, 2013, 10:32:13 AM
according to my calculation NRL me 240 ki strong position toot kr 230 pr ja sakti hy ya phir direct 260 ki jump, baqi aap log apna dhiyan or info ho to batain.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on June 08, 2013, 12:03:45 PM
Base Oil Report: As per the data analysis by our team, SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore prices were hovering in the range of USD 1060 – 1075 PMT in the month of January 2012. In February prices marked up & priced at USD 1110 – 1125 PMT. Prices firmed up in March 2012 & priced at USD 1150 – 1165 PMT, USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in April and USD 1305 – 1320 PMT in May 2012 Prices dipped down thereafter & reported in the range of USD 1260 – 1275 PMT in June, USD 1180 – 1195 PMT in July, USD 1115 – 1130 PMT in August, USD 1110 – 1125 PMT in September, USD 1090 – 1105 PMT in October, USD 1070 – 1085 PMT in November, USD 945 – 960 PMT in December 2012 and USD 925 – 940 PMT in January 2013. In current month i.e. February 2013, prices of the product have increase by USD 15 PMT (2%) as compared to last month & reported in the range of USD 935 - 950 PMT.

As per the data analysis by our team, FOB SN 500 Singapore current prices reported in the range of USD 980 - 995 PMT

SN 500 Base Oil FOB Singapore current pieces reported at USD 1010 – 1025 PMT
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Shah on June 16, 2013, 11:58:00 AM
according to my calculation NRL me 240 ki strong position toot kr 230 pr ja sakti hy ya phir direct 260 ki jump, baqi aap log apna dhiyan or info ho to batain.

 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Shah on June 18, 2013, 02:36:21 PM
according to my calculation NRL me 240 ki strong position toot kr 230 pr ja sakti hy ya phir direct 260 ki jump, baqi aap log apna dhiyan or info ho to batain.

 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1:

Strong resist at 250, best time for accumulate, w8 for 260 soon for shor term, correction in kse cud be 1000 points but it will not effect oil, cement, power, telecom. satta items cud be down more points.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Shah on June 26, 2013, 01:54:00 PM
according to my calculation NRL me 240 ki strong position toot kr 230 pr ja sakti hy ya phir direct 260 ki jump, baqi aap log apna dhiyan or info ho to batain.

 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Shah on July 05, 2013, 02:44:24 AM
NRL tu itna slow kio chal rha hy tujhy to 254 pr hona chaya... .
me aadhi aadhi raat ko uth uth kr post karta hon magr tujhy ghairat nahi aati.... .
or mary pas sab kio news aati hyn magr tu to bhaee bara hi zalim hy kuch leak hi nahi hony deta... .

khair dekhta hon k tera game hy kis k paas... .  :D
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: engrusama on July 29, 2013, 11:59:51 PM
Will anybody recommend entry before results? Circular debt k khatmay k iss par koi khaas asar nahi padha i think.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 15, 2013, 09:55:37 AM
dps 15 eps 35.57

Full year 2013 results  (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045693&pagesize=1&pageno=2)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on August 15, 2013, 04:04:57 PM
NRL is a one better company acquired in a privatization process in Oct 2005. It did show better earnings in FY13 i.e. Rs 2.9bn (EPS: Rs 35.57/sh) as against Rs 2.6bn (EPS: Rs 32.74). The company also passed on final dividend of Rs 15/sh. We recommend HOLD.

Standard Capital Securities
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ApnaPlot.pk on August 16, 2013, 04:30:21 PM
NRL results for the last 2 years have not been that great in terms of dividend payout ratio and eps, I wonder if they are doing at CapEx with the retained earnings?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on August 27, 2013, 07:30:42 AM
NRL will show good results in 1Q probably 15 rupees earning.n Keep a close eye on it...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ApnaPlot.pk on August 27, 2013, 07:59:29 PM
Any particular reason for such optimism?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on September 09, 2013, 12:23:06 PM
Last quarter was which is 4QFY12 earning was around 11-12. If lube base margins increased i see eps 15. Space, Farooq, Abdul Qadir, Poker and other senior pls gve your advice.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on September 09, 2013, 12:42:43 PM
Last quarter was which is 4QFY12 earning was around 11-12. If lube base margins increased i see eps 15. Space, Farooq, Abdul Qadir, Poker and other senior pls gve your advice.

Refinery margins and lube margins have decreased this quarter
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 09, 2013, 04:32:11 PM
nrl 2013 financial accounts  (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/annual_report_2013.pdf)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 16, 2013, 04:20:54 AM
nrl 2013 financial accounts  (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/annual_report_2013.pdf)

"The Company is planning to venture into various new projects which includes HSD
de-sulphurization unit, Isomerization unit and Uniflex."

uniflex  ==>

http://honeywell.com/News/Pages/Honeywell-UOP-Technology-For-Upgrading-The-Bottom-Of-The-Barrel-Selected-For-Refinery-Expansion-In-Pakistan.aspx

nrl will become the most advanced (and probably profitable)  refinery in pakistan after this.

low margin naptha will be converted in high margin petrol via isom unit

low margin heavy fuel will be converted into diesel + lube oil via cracking unit (uniflex)

project is supposed to be completed in 2016, which means 2017 tak no effect on earnings  :laugh:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 16, 2013, 04:22:22 AM
Different kinds of refineries and their outputs

http://www.statoil.com/en/InvestorCentre/Presentations/Downloads/Refining.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on October 21, 2013, 10:02:26 PM
National Refinery Limited profitability falls substantially in 1QFY14

National Refinery Limited (NRL) has just announced its 1QFY14 financial result. During the quarter company’s profitability has declined by 75%YoY to PKR 202mn (EPS: PKR 2.52) against PKR 802mn (EPS: PKR 10.03) in 1QFY13. The massive decline in profitability during the quarter was mainly due exchange losses face by the company on account of devaluation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar. In addition to this lower gross refinery margins has put further pressure on the profitability during the quarter.

On the other hand net sales of the company have increased by 20%YoY from last year to PKR 52.9bn due to higher production and increase ex-refinery prices during the quarter. Other income also increased by 46%YoY to PKR 457mn due to higher interest income in 1QFY14.

Recommendation…

We recommend a Buy stance on NRL at current level with our TP of PKR 285

Summit Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on October 22, 2013, 07:45:47 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/3768:finance-cost-hammering-nrl/?date=2013-10-22
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on October 23, 2013, 09:51:55 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/3768:finance-cost-hammering-nrl/?date=2013-10-22

is it good to start accumulate it here ???
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on October 23, 2013, 10:23:55 AM
keepin in view the upcoming payment to IMF that is likely to push PKR to further lows thus badly affecting capital markets of pakistan  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on October 30, 2013, 05:21:29 PM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/first_quarter_sep_2013.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on November 04, 2013, 02:29:21 PM
Time to Buy NRL around 183-185
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farrukh Muqeem on November 04, 2013, 04:23:35 PM
Time to Buy NRL around 183-185


What is the target price ??? and time frame
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on November 04, 2013, 04:39:34 PM
Time to Buy NRL around 183-185


What is the target price ??? and time frame

220
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on November 19, 2013, 11:18:34 AM
Can any one guide wht to do in NNRL... Its good buy here
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on November 27, 2013, 12:36:53 AM
Can any one guide wht to do in NNRL... Its good buy here
Time to Buy NRL around 183-185


looks too cheap here imho
net assets per share  PKR 270
book value 322
p/s  0.06
what seniors say ?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: waqasmujahid on December 15, 2013, 01:05:50 AM
190 ki entry hy.
Seniors hazraat kab tak HOLD kia jaey ??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on December 22, 2013, 06:31:45 PM
Time to Buy NRL around 183-185


What is the target price ??? and time frame

220
Target Achieved  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on December 23, 2013, 10:16:45 AM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on December 23, 2013, 10:44:25 AM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

khairiyat ?
exchange loss nahi hoga half year result mein .. earnings should be decent ..
atrl ko short karein, its for a good cause. thanks
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on January 17, 2014, 10:28:03 AM
NRL: 1HFY13 EPS of Rs1.9 (down 90%YoY)
NRL’s earnings are likely to show a decline of 90% to Rs1.9/share in 1HFY14 from Rs19.6 in 1HFY13. Reduce GRMs stand out as the primary culprit behind decline in earnings while its lube business is expected to fare a little better. In 2Q, we expect the company to post loss of Rs0.6/share from Rs2.5/share posted in 1QFY14 and Rs9.6 in same quarter last year.

topline
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on January 17, 2014, 10:30:55 AM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

khairiyat ?
exchange loss nahi hoga half year result mein .. earnings should be decent ..
atrl ko short karein, its for a good cause. thanks

 :[ :bangin: :o :thumbsdown_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on January 17, 2014, 01:52:39 PM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

khairiyat ?
exchange loss nahi hoga half year result mein .. earnings should be decent ..
atrl ko short karein, its for a good cause. thanks

 :[ :bangin: :o :thumbsdown_anim:

dude what are you saying ?
nrl is at 234 now .. you were saying 180 ....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on January 22, 2014, 09:34:43 AM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/050178-2.gif)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on January 22, 2014, 09:50:45 AM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on January 22, 2014, 09:59:46 AM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

theek hai yar ... ap sahi thay  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on February 18, 2014, 09:02:33 PM
Half year dec 2013 accounts (http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/Half_yearly_dec13-14.pdf)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Irfy on March 11, 2014, 02:59:39 PM
Seems very attractive to me...... Can it go to Rs. 300/- before June 14?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rashi on April 11, 2014, 01:18:33 PM
no lift to this share, i think it also has the potential to reach 350, seniors plz guide
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Munda_Lahori on April 11, 2014, 03:49:52 PM
no earnings for the HY by NRL, why should this get any lift anyways?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 12, 2014, 10:42:06 PM
no earnings for the HY by NRL, why should this get any lift anyways?

exchange gains
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on April 17, 2014, 04:56:13 PM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

theek hai yar ... ap sahi thay  :biggthumpup:

 :[
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 17, 2014, 10:29:45 PM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

theek hai yar ... ap sahi thay  :biggthumpup:

 :[

kardo ..
it never went below 180 before too.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on April 19, 2014, 10:18:44 AM
NRLs woes continue

The rising gap between the revenues and earnings of National Refinery Limited (NRL) should be concerning for the firm. While revenues of the firm during 9M FY14 increased by 20 percent year on year, the bottom line nosedived to almost one fifth of what it was in 9M FY13.

One common issue for all the refineries has been the shrinking refinery margins, where high cost of sales eats up most of the revenue gains. NRL has also been facing the pressure from reduced margin scenario. During 9M FY14, GRMs flipped from 2.7 percent to only 1.3 percent.

What further aggravated the earnings decline were the 48 percent year-on-year contraction in other income, and a 13 percent year-on-year rise in finance cost. However, Rs600 million exchange gains during the third quarter of FY14 came as a breather for the bottom line due to an average of seven percent appreciation of rupee against USD.

Depressed international lube and base oil market is an additional strain on the firm, which is the only lube refinery in the country. This is even more draining at a time when its refinery business is facing reduced margins, and any improvement in the firms performance largely depends on a rebound in international market.

As far as local GRMs are concerned, nothing conclusive can be said about what route they take.

Market analysts have pointed towards come recovery in GRMs which should bode well for the sector in the coming couple of months.

==========================================================================
National Refinery Limited
==========================================================================
Rs (mn)              9MFY14    9MFY13     chg    3QFY14    3QFY13      chg
==========================================================================
Net sales           155,349   128,922     20%    51,363    43,626      18%
Gross profit          2,044     3,453    -41%       235       606     -61%
Other income            947     1,823    -48%       235       704     -67%
Operating profit      1,735     3,888    -55%        10       872     -99%
Profit after tax        378     1,936    -80%       348       369      -6%
EPS (Rs)               4.73     24.21    -80%      4.36      4.61      -5%
Gross margin           1.3%      2.7%              0.5%      1.4%
Operating margin       1.1%      3.0%              0.0%      2.0%
Net margin             0.2%      1.5%              0.7%      0.8%
==========================================================================
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Munda_Lahori on April 19, 2014, 07:41:55 PM
no earnings for the HY by NRL, why should this get any lift anyways?

Now the price is coming close to the 'fair-value' based on earnings rather than anticipation of gains on exchange rates
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Irfankhan on April 19, 2014, 08:37:13 PM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

theek hai yar ... ap sahi thay  :biggthumpup:

 :[

kardo ..
it never went below 180 before too.
Bhai i dont believe k 180 tak aa sakta hai and if it goes below 180 then Global bhai deserves big compliments.
We willbe buyer below 180 upto 150  good numbers Insha Allah
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on June 05, 2014, 01:17:24 PM
Expansion in road networks positive for Asphalt sales but delays in FY15
Higher PSDP allocation for infrastructure projects like motorways and link roads,
especially the announced Khi-Lhr motorway and Pak-China Corridor, will provide
impetus to demand of high margin product ie Asphalt, in our view. But the
materialization or impact on sales will be a long term game.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on July 04, 2014, 12:38:26 AM
may post eps around 10 for full year ending june 30th.
dps 10 -12

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on July 28, 2014, 02:44:43 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=056187&qsid=584
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on August 12, 2014, 04:51:52 PM
NRL Result Preview for FY14…

The BoD’s of NRL schedule to meet on 14 Aug, 2014 for the approval of FY14 financial result. We expect company to report PAT of PKR612mn (EPS: PKR7.65) in 4QFY14 as compare to PKR909mn (EPS: PKR11.36) in same period last year indicating YoY decline of 43%. This substantial decline in bottom-line earning of the company is mainly due to lower gross refinery margin and decline in other income during the year. On cumulative basis for FY14, company is likely to post PAT of PKR990mn (EPS: PKR12.38) in FY14 against PKR2,844mn (EPS:PKR35.57) in FY13. Further, we expect company to announce final cash dividend of PKR10/share for FY14.

Recommendation…

At current level we have Buy stance of  NRL with TP PKR285.

Summit Research
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 18, 2014, 12:04:41 AM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/056394.pdf

12 eps 0 dps
i think eps for q4 is 8

No dividend due to following capex
I was expecting dividend i guess will be out at 0-0


(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/056395-1.gif)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on August 18, 2014, 09:36:40 AM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

theek hai yar ... ap sahi thay  :biggthumpup:

 :thumbsdown_anim: till 160's  :[
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on October 24, 2014, 10:58:19 PM
TA kia bolta haay?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: riz on November 05, 2014, 07:21:06 PM
senior plz guide i m stuck @ 205.what shuld I Do?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: riz on November 05, 2014, 07:58:28 PM
Asim bhai & Seniors plz Comment..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: newface on November 05, 2014, 09:06:19 PM
senior plz guide i m stuck @ 205.what shuld I Do?


dont worry bhai will soon rock . Its KSE. Can any one understand why PPL despite having good EPS was almost equal to NRL having poor LPS histrory.
matlab apney to palle nahi parta ke FFC reamined 100-120 during last 2 years depite good DPS while ATRL and NRL touched nearly 250 around. 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: GlobalInvestor on November 06, 2014, 06:35:45 PM
NRL seen below 180 our dears  :confused1:

theek hai yar ... ap sahi thay  :biggthumpup:

 :thumbsdown_anim: till 160's  :[

NRL see you @ 160  :lazy2:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on November 15, 2014, 09:03:55 AM
TA kia bolta haay?

HOLD
http://www.dawn.com/news/1144567/200m-invested-to-boost-petrol-output
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on November 29, 2014, 02:22:03 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/798909/revised-cost-of-nrl-projects-hits-349-million/
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on February 02, 2015, 09:48:56 AM
farzooq bhai ur input needed on nrl .. after ther report of improved grms
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on February 02, 2015, 06:03:41 PM
farzooq bhai ur input needed on nrl .. after ther report of improved grms

We initiate coverage on National Refinery Limited, Pakistan’s 2nd largest refinery and sole producer of base oil, with a Buy rating and Price Objective of PRs265 (based on 0.7x of 2015E BV) suggesting an upside of 31%. We believe dynamics of Pakistan’s refinery industry in general and National Refinery Ltd (NR) in particular have undergone a marked positive change in the past six months with declining oil prices and warrant a revisit to investment thesis.

Five reasons for Buy rating

#1-Declining earnings volatility: Trends in key variables for Pakistan’s refining industry-GRMs, oil prices, exchange rate and interest rate-suggest earnings volatility seen in 1H15 is likely to significantly trend down in future quarter as (1) oil prices finds a bottom around current level resulting in lower possibility of further inventory losses, and (2) increased rupee stability on the back of improved external account eliminate the risk of currency losses. In-fact, during 2Q, NRL has reversed PRs245mn of FX losses.

#2-Near-term strength in GRM: GRMs are hovering close to 2-yr high due to as product spreads in FO and Naptha have improved. Though product spreads are likely to drop over the course of CY15, NRL’s key competitive advantage over other local refineries-the base oil segment- will likely lend a big support to GRM. We estimate current base-oil spread of US$72/bbl-close to levels last seen in 2011 when NRL booked PRs16-20/sh quarterly EPS.

http://investorguide360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/MS30-01-15.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 14, 2015, 11:22:41 AM
Earnings turnaround underway; PO lifted to PRs290, Buy

Estimates lifted on strong 3Q EPS & margins             

We lift our estimates for National Refinery Ltd (NRL) by 5/5/40% over 2015-2017E post strong earnings print in 3Q and revised outlook on cost curve over the medium-term. We also upgrade our PO by 10% to PRs290/sh. The earnings backdrop for refinery, particularly NRL, remains favorable given trends in key indicators and adds to our confidence on strong fundamentals of NRL. While NRL’s stock price is up 23% in last 3M, this is insignificant in our view, given the (1) strong turnaround in earnings which is poised to sustain in medium-term and (2) negative sentiments in the stock at the start of 3Q.  Meanwhile, valuation discount of NRL vs market has widened to 40% on FY16E P/E. We reiterate Buy with new PO implying 32% upside.

Big turnaround in earnings delivered in 3Q

NRL’s 3Q earnings clocked in at PRs15.1/sh, up 54% QoQ and 2.5x YoY. This translates into 9M earnings of PRs14.53, up 3x. The improved earnings backdrop for refinery, a theme that we first highlighted in late 2Q, is on full display as the company recorded improvement in key areas; (1) core earnings indicator of GRM has improved, (2) the burden of inventory losses which had dragged earnings in the first two quarters is practically absent in 3Q (PRs25mn losses vs PRs612mn in 1HFY15), (3) financial cost is coming off, and (4) exchange losses have dropped due to stability in Pak Rupee. Jump in gross profit by 2x QoQ was a key contributor in earnings turnaround. Gross profit/bbl, a proxy of company’s Gross Refining Margin (GRM), has jumped from US$1.1/bbl in 2Q to US$4.1/bbl in 3Q. QoQ, financial charges and effective tax rate have normalized. In terms of segment profits, improved operating profit in fuel oil segment has driven most of the improvement in profitability. The segment which barely broke even in 2Q has turned in PRs297mn contribution to company’s profit in 3Q.

Update on refinery up-gradation project

NRL is swiftly progressing on construction of its US$270mn refinery improvement project post award of EPC contract in 2014.  With target delivery in 2H16, the project will allow NRL to (1) comply with environmental regulations on sulfur content in diesel, (2) improve its product spec in favor of higher margin gasoline, away from Naphtha and (3) benefit from pricing incentives on diesel once diesel de-sulfurization projects is complete. The company is looking to have financial close by end of 2015. Upto Mar-15, NRL has already made PRs4.9bn capex (mostly in 3Q), funded by internal cash flows.

Strong 4Q GRM may result in earnings surprise in 4Q

The rebound seen in the GRM since late 1QFY15 continues to hold in both 3Q and 4Q and can prove to be a major source of earnings surprise in NRL, in our view. The indicative GRM, which takes into account underlying spreads for key products, is up 28% to US$7.4/bbl for NRL in April vs an average of US$5.8/bbl in 3Q. Broadly speaking, the soft commodity prices have changed the supply/demand dynamics for the refined products given big crude storage and the prospect of demand recovery due to over 50% drop in prices.

KASB
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: OMAIR on May 05, 2015, 05:21:39 PM
It is agood time to buy nrl for full year results>Return is very high. book value in accounts is 333. Why not purchase this share.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Omer The Researcher on May 05, 2015, 08:06:35 PM
NRL is good but atrl is best
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: asim.786 on June 03, 2015, 04:47:15 PM
Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on June 03, 2015, 06:23:14 PM
Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: genious.genio on June 03, 2015, 06:41:48 PM
Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

 :biggthumpup:

Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

Kal phir laooo ha INSHALLAH.....  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: asim.786 on June 03, 2015, 06:54:14 PM
Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

 :biggthumpup:

Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

Kal phir laooo ha INSHALLAH.....  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:

NRL trigger today
Budget 15-16: Sectors To Benefit On Development Spending Which May Increase Up To Rs1.6tr

by  KONAIN KHAN in NEWS
 JUNE 3, 2015 203 A-AA+
toon120411


 
 
We have been highlighting that government is laying focus on development spending which is good for local industries viz. cements, asphalt, steel, power etc. In line with this the National Economic Council (NEC) may approve nearly Rs1.6 trillion for the country’s consolidated development program, as per the coverage of Dawn news, for the fiscal year FY16 after accommodating Rs29bn in federally-funded provincial projects.

We have been focusing on listed companies which would be beneficial of this situation mainly Fauji Cements (FCCL), Mughal Steel, Amerali Steel (IPO yet to come), National & Attock Refinery, Attock Petroleum etc.

FCCL is our favorite given its application in road making projects whereas refineries & their related oil marketing companies shall produce asphalt for roads. The Attock Group companies will surely benefit from proposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC
Asphalt is produced by National & Attock refinery and marketed by their OMC viz. APL.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: asim.786 on June 04, 2015, 12:21:03 PM
Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

 :biggthumpup:
keep eyes on refinery
can fly soon :fingerscrossed1:
Broke strong resistance level with good volume
250 inshallah in short term

Kal phir laooo ha INSHALLAH.....  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:

NRL trigger today
Budget 15-16: Sectors To Benefit On Development Spending Which May Increase Up To Rs1.6tr

by  KONAIN KHAN in NEWS
 JUNE 3, 2015 203 A-AA+
toon120411


 
 
We have been highlighting that government is laying focus on development spending which is good for local industries viz. cements, asphalt, steel, power etc. In line with this the National Economic Council (NEC) may approve nearly Rs1.6 trillion for the country’s consolidated development program, as per the coverage of Dawn news, for the fiscal year FY16 after accommodating Rs29bn in federally-funded provincial projects.

We have been focusing on listed companies which would be beneficial of this situation mainly Fauji Cements (FCCL), Mughal Steel, Amerali Steel (IPO yet to come), National & Attock Refinery, Attock Petroleum etc.

FCCL is our favorite given its application in road making projects whereas refineries & their related oil marketing companies shall produce asphalt for roads. The Attock Group companies will surely benefit from proposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC
Asphalt is produced by National & Attock refinery and marketed by their OMC viz. APL.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 04, 2015, 12:36:26 PM
Asim bhai NRL has lot of inventory of Asphalt.............when china pak corridor started it will be the most beneficial  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: riz on July 25, 2015, 08:19:59 AM
why this share is going down.Seniors please guide...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on July 25, 2015, 12:05:57 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-producers-ugly-duckling-refineries-just-turned-into-swans

outlook for refineries is good imho
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Adnan on July 25, 2015, 12:52:40 PM
why this share is going down.Seniors please guide...

It is giving a buying opportunity before annual result. Buy on every dip. Price is attractive.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 03, 2015, 05:59:24 PM
Asim Bhai & SBM Bhai kindly suggest karain....
agar EPS near 40 hoa tou kahan tak daikhtay hain NRL ko in coming days?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Adnan on August 03, 2015, 07:59:11 PM
why this share is going down.Seniors please guide...

It is giving a buying opportunity before annual result. Buy on every dip. Price is attractive.

 :biggthumpup: :thumbsup_anim: :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 03, 2015, 10:23:37 PM
Adnan sahab kya chances hain kahan tak ja sakta hay before result?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Adnan on August 03, 2015, 10:46:22 PM
Adnan sahab kya chances hain kahan tak ja sakta hay before result?

300 is possible
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 04, 2015, 03:54:03 PM
12 ko board meeting hay, Insha Allah 300 before board meeting....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 05, 2015, 11:16:20 AM
MASHALLAH
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: hasanali on August 05, 2015, 11:23:31 AM
seniors please  guide kiya nrl se atrl mein switch karna chahiye dono ki eps takreeban babar hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 05, 2015, 11:35:03 AM
@ Loto or Photo
aap kya suggest kartay hain? kahan tak ja sakta hay?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 05, 2015, 11:42:48 AM
@ Loto or Photo
aap kya suggest kartay hain? kahan tak ja sakta hay?

INSHALLAH Feb 2016 tak 28-32 kay around chances hain. ALLAH knows best
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 05, 2015, 11:56:57 AM
@ Loto or Photo
aap kya suggest kartay hain? kahan tak ja sakta hay?

INSHALLAH Feb 2016 tak 28-32 kay around chances hain. ALLAH knows best

Sorry guys I am bit sleepy..........this post was for TPL. NRL has lot of inventory of ASPHALT, which is quite reduced  now due to road construction activities. After result INSHALLAH it will cross Rs. 300
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 06, 2015, 05:29:41 PM
280 >>>>>>>>
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 06, 2015, 11:21:33 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 06, 2015, 11:31:03 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 06, 2015, 11:36:42 PM
46 rs
Good source
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 06, 2015, 11:37:34 PM
Am I correct cheetah?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Adnan on August 06, 2015, 11:44:17 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p

If NRL result is that good, what abt ATRL result. Will it follow NRL?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 06, 2015, 11:58:41 PM
There is a very strong rumour of 44-46 rs has any one else heard?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 12:06:02 AM
There is a very strong rumour of 44-46 rs has any one else heard?

considering the kind of bullish activity in stock, 40+ eps is possible :)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stockz_123 on August 07, 2015, 02:21:18 AM
46 rs
Good source

hmm and how about atrl eps from your source bhai?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 07, 2015, 11:02:12 AM
Bhai actually it's all rumours by source reliablility I meant a person who normally does not put his credibility on the line by giving false information so basically I have some faith in him
Atrl ki do baatain hain 28-30 one source other source says above 40
Would appreciate if u guys would kindly share if u have heard anything specific or any specific number
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ::WASIF:: on August 07, 2015, 11:39:42 AM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p

if the result is so good then why stock in red zone it should be on upper lock, isn't?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 07, 2015, 12:13:14 PM
NRL aaj down hay, kya lagta hay kay maal jama ho rha hay?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stock addicted on August 07, 2015, 12:25:27 PM
Nrl earning 46 ruppees earning per share this quarter is 31.53 any one who goes long in this share will have his money doubled by june , my target for this company is 700 by june as isomerisation plant will come online
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jaz on August 07, 2015, 02:03:14 PM
Pl keep in mind it is very difficult to predict refinery earnings. I have seen analysts missing forecasts by a wide margin
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: hasanzaidi on August 07, 2015, 02:57:43 PM
What could be its near future target price.?
It has expansionary projects undergone last year and now they would start getting benefits out of that and it will definitely impact earning positively.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 03:32:56 PM
Pl keep in mind it is very difficult to predict refinery earnings. I have seen analysts missing forecasts by a wide margin

i have only seen analyst missing forecasts :P
bro zaleel hee hota hai banda iss sector mein
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 07, 2015, 05:09:38 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p

if the result is so good then why stock in red zone it should be on upper lock, isn't?

tou kya Jo itnayyy Dino se tezi main hai Wo 14 August ki khushi main hai??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 07, 2015, 05:22:43 PM
Cheetah bhai 40+ EPS k sath aap kahan per daikhtay ho NRL ko next 10 days tak?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: mstabanipk on August 07, 2015, 05:44:22 PM
I Have Also Urti Urati News k EPS 40 + HAi. Payout kia hosakata hai Bonus or Dividened.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ::WASIF:: on August 07, 2015, 05:52:13 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p

if the result is so good then why stock in red zone it should be on upper lock, isn't?

tou kya Jo itnayyy Dino se tezi main hai Wo 14 August ki khushi main hai??

Index shares ki movement per chalta hy, jab market apni peek per hy to mostly shares b apni peek per hy no wonder, but b specific to NRL - 272 low lagaya aj and ever lowest volume in the month of Aug, 15 - ager itni tezi mein hota to people are more interest to trade and volume become improved but kaal jab log sell nahi kar rahay thay UL per aaj uss rate say b nechay hy lols  :tongue:

wasy apki 14 August wali baat theek hy
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 07, 2015, 11:14:37 PM
Cheetah bhai 40+ EPS k sath aap kahan per daikhtay ho NRL ko next 10 days tak?

dude 10 din ka koi kuchh nahe kehsaktaa. Han if comes that much EPS then next quarter tak 350 torega
 
@ wasif.. Dude don't judge any script by its price movement . Buying isn't recommended from me to anyone.  Only we have to wait for the result . Agar aisaa result ajaye Jo expected hai..aur luckily miljaye apko tou lelena
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Adnan on August 07, 2015, 11:40:41 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p

if the result is so good then why stock in red zone it should be on upper lock, isn't?

tou kya Jo itnayyy Dino se tezi main hai Wo 14 August ki khushi main hai??

Index shares ki movement per chalta hy, jab market apni peek per hy to mostly shares b apni peek per hy no wonder, but b specific to NRL - 272 low lagaya aj and ever lowest volume in the month of Aug, 15 - ager itni tezi mein hota to people are more interest to trade and volume become improved but kaal jab log sell nahi kar rahay thay UL per aaj uss rate say b nechay hy lols  :tongue:

wasy apki 14 August wali baat theek hy

Bhai technicals bhi koi cheez hote hein. Moved from 220 to 280 within 7 trading sessions i.e. 27% increase. Did KSE 100 index increased by that much? RSI was above 80 before today so some correction was very much expected. And is it necessary that stock which was on upper cap yesterday has to go up today?

And no one can accurately predict the result. Lets wait for result and then decide what to do next. Those who bough it at around 220 have nothing to worry about. They can book profit on some of their holding before result if they want and keep the rest.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ::WASIF:: on August 08, 2015, 12:29:33 PM
eps 30-32 with 5 rupees dividend or bonus  ?

sbm bhai.. Apkii soch se bhttttt uper araha hai result.. :p

if the result is so good then why stock in red zone it should be on upper lock, isn't?

tou kya Jo itnayyy Dino se tezi main hai Wo 14 August ki khushi main hai??

Index shares ki movement per chalta hy, jab market apni peek per hy to mostly shares b apni peek per hy no wonder, but b specific to NRL - 272 low lagaya aj and ever lowest volume in the month of Aug, 15 - ager itni tezi mein hota to people are more interest to trade and volume become improved but kaal jab log sell nahi kar rahay thay UL per aaj uss rate say b nechay hy lols  :tongue:

wasy apki 14 August wali baat theek hy

Bhai technicals bhi koi cheez hote hein. Moved from 220 to 280 within 7 trading sessions i.e. 27% increase. Did KSE 100 index increased by that much? RSI was above 80 before today so some correction was very much expected. And is it necessary that stock which was on upper cap yesterday has to go up today?

And no one can accurately predict the result. Lets wait for result and then decide what to do next. Those who bough it at around 220 have nothing to worry about. They can book profit on some of their holding before result if they want and keep the rest.

WOWaooooooo

What a great answer, talian

Technicals ki kami nahi hy hamaray mulk mein  :tongue: have a look at HINO's RSI  :tongue:

RSI calculate karny ka formula to batanaa, ager nahi ataa tu technical analysis acha karty hy ap  :tongue:

Stochastic ka b formula batana, ager nahi ataa tu muj se poch lena mein bata doon ga ap ko


or haan example zaroor dena khali formula se kaam nahi chalay gaa. formula tu google per b mil jaya gaay, i need working, u can use any version of MS Excel  :tongue:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 10, 2015, 06:03:31 PM
sab RED aur NRL green hay... Kya lagta hay 40+ EPS ki news sahi lag rhi hay?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stock addicted on August 11, 2015, 02:57:57 PM
Nrl alert : earning 48 and dividend 20 ruppees
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 11, 2015, 03:18:46 PM
(http://puu.sh/jxitC/99e285d578.png)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: stock addicted on August 11, 2015, 03:50:56 PM
Sbm this report is purely biased on the view that js group now controls kabsl. What I see is further upside inthe two refineries owing to the fact that js group owns a chunk of atrl, and downgrading share price just on the basis of weaker grms the next quarter doesnt make sense. Even the report which was produced a day before release seens to be deliberate
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jaz on August 11, 2015, 04:27:31 PM
Kasb has gone nuts, absolutely poor forecast and analysis. Refining margins are going north and are likely to stay there given forecast of oil and inventory losses are not a frequent affair. I believe q1 is going to be even stronger than q4 of last yr. 
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 11, 2015, 04:32:20 PM
aaj ki selling daikh kar dar lag rha hay NRL main...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 11, 2015, 04:34:08 PM
lakin phir bhi hold rakha hoa hay, 40+ EPS k sath dividend ho tou 300 cross kar sakta hay.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: mstabanipk on August 11, 2015, 08:31:48 PM
NRL ki kya expectation hain
kal result hay
hold ya sell
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 11, 2015, 08:55:34 PM
NRL ki kya expectation hain
kal result hay
hold ya sell

HOLD
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 11, 2015, 09:21:31 PM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 11, 2015, 10:02:14 PM
Cheetah bhai itnay sure kaisay hain aap, jis tarha aap confident hain yaqeen karnay ko dil karta hay  ::)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 11, 2015, 10:06:16 PM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !

Because yeh 46.04 wali report poori market mein ghoom rahi hai
I have even mentioned it previous posts
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 11, 2015, 10:12:58 PM
Phir RIGHTS  wali baat sahi ho sakti hay k yeh news break kar k stock ki price ko increse karna aur baad main rights shares ko zyada premium pe daina.......
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 11, 2015, 10:14:59 PM
Kyun k takreban last 10 days main 218 se 282 pe agaya hay almost 25% gain in just 10 days
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 11, 2015, 10:39:13 PM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !

Because yeh 46.04 wali report poori market mein ghoom rahi hai
I have even mentioned it previous posts

KASB walay kuch or hi story beyan kr rehay hain.

http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS11-08-15.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 11, 2015, 10:54:43 PM
Sbm this report is purely biased on the view that js group now controls kabsl. What I see is further upside inthe two refineries owing to the fact that js group owns a chunk of atrl, and downgrading share price just on the basis of weaker grms the next quarter doesnt make sense. Even the report which was produced a day before release seens to be deliberate

Kasb has gone nuts, absolutely poor forecast and analysis. Refining margins are going north and are likely to stay there given forecast of oil and inventory losses are not a frequent affair. I believe q1 is going to be even stronger than q4 of last yr.

it has given very good gains in in past couple of months
long term its still a hold
short term if people are afraid of volatility in margins maybe thye can book profits
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 11, 2015, 11:02:35 PM
Send me your what's app on personal msg will forward it to u if any of u guys want
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: mstabanipk on August 11, 2015, 11:35:22 PM
Senerior
What You Suggest hold or sell
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 12, 2015, 12:32:28 AM
Senerior
What You Suggest hold or sell

Sell on strength .. result almost priced in
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: hasanali on August 12, 2015, 11:44:09 AM
dear sbm please ab nrl ke result ke baad is ka kiya rate hona chahiye  aur  kuch brr modarba ke bare mein bhi bata dijiye  :thanks:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 12, 2015, 11:53:49 AM
NRL EPS 46.38
Dividend 10 Rupees
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: hasanali on August 12, 2015, 11:58:45 AM
nrl ki price kiya honi chahiye
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Value-Investor on August 12, 2015, 12:05:21 PM
nrl ki price kiya honi chahiye

240
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 12, 2015, 12:06:26 PM
nrl ki price kiya honi chahiye

240

why 240
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: hasanali on August 12, 2015, 12:13:00 PM
sbm please guide   nrl hold or sell  what price
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Atif1 on August 12, 2015, 12:24:54 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=068243&qsid=251p

Eps 46.38
Dps 10
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on August 12, 2015, 12:30:14 PM
nrl ki price kiya honi chahiye

240

why 240
buy on LL , div free INSHALLAH
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on August 12, 2015, 12:33:38 PM
public se maal nikalwa rahay hain
abhi PE*6 k hisab se rate chal rha hay jo k kam se kam PE*8 hona chaiye...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: shafi on August 12, 2015, 12:49:24 PM
new entry ly lon seniors?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on August 12, 2015, 03:55:35 PM
new entry ly lon seniors?

I think entry leni chai ha result is good and xurrent price includes dividend of 10 ...!!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: shafi on August 12, 2015, 04:16:14 PM
new entry ly lon seniors?

I think entry leni chai ha result is good and xurrent price includes dividend of 10 ...!!

jumped in :) got at an avg of 268
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on August 12, 2015, 08:10:43 PM
nrl ki price kiya honi chahiye

240

why 240
buy on LL , div free INSHALLAH

Booltaay haay junta koo including myself  loss hoo ga  :(
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: mstabanipk on August 12, 2015, 08:13:57 PM
NRL mein buying to bohat hay
kya maal jama ho raha hay big fishers k hath mein
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 12, 2015, 11:24:34 PM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !

 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on August 12, 2015, 11:46:17 PM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !

 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Weldone  :thanks:,
but now predict what will happen to nrl share price tomorrow :confused1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 12, 2015, 11:48:07 PM
46 rs
Good source
Cheetah Bhai Sab Ki lagta hai keh sirf hum ko hi pata ;)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: gagal on August 12, 2015, 11:51:59 PM
Cheetah bhai n m. Omer bhai well done. Yar ATRL ki bhi koi prediction de dey
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: m.omar on August 13, 2015, 12:02:58 AM
Unconsolidated ki 28-30 Ki awaaz hai but consolidated could be higher depends upon what
Gains they book during this period from associates
Rights ya bonus Ka rumour hai most likely rights
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: gagal on August 13, 2015, 12:05:49 AM
JazakALLAH omer bhai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on August 13, 2015, 12:28:52 AM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !

 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Weldone  :thanks: ,
but now predict what will happen to nrl share price tomorrow :confused1:

Jo 220 se maal lekar arahay hain wo obviously is level pe selling karengay . And 1Q main inventory losses bhi ayengay.. so looks like further battering
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Irfankhan on August 13, 2015, 06:26:19 AM
NRL eps will be 46.04 with 10 dps and possibly 10-20% rights ..

Fresh buying not recommended !

 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Weldone  :thanks: ,
but now predict what will happen to nrl share price tomorrow :confused1:

Jo 220 se maal lekar arahay hain wo obviously is level pe selling karengay . And 1Q main inventory losses bhi ayengay.. so looks like further battering
I bought during 220 sold 20 percent 280 and will recover same 255
I don't expect too much battering.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: shafi on August 14, 2015, 02:16:11 PM
bought at 268, sold at 270 on the next day. waiting for 250 range to rebuy
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 26, 2015, 03:16:31 AM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/FinancialStatementJune302015DS.pdf

DHDS project wont be completed before may 2017
 :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on September 11, 2015, 11:16:34 AM
kya 400 tak jaa skta hay? in 1year time?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on September 11, 2015, 06:56:37 PM
mujay iss share me potential nazar aa ra hay...SBM comments plz :thanks:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 12, 2015, 12:52:30 AM
mujay iss share me potential nazar aa ra hay...SBM comments plz :thanks:

expansion nd upgradtion project delyed t o mid 2017 so might sty wek
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zakhan76 on September 12, 2015, 08:04:07 AM
Salam..SBM bhai..EPS of 46 compared to EPS of 12 LY...iski fair value kia honi chahye...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on September 12, 2015, 10:11:58 AM
I am going to invest in NRL for next 2 years....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on September 12, 2015, 10:51:37 AM
nrl ki price kiya honi chahiye

240

why 240
buy on LL , div free INSHALLAH

Booltaay haay junta koo including myself  loss hoo ga  :(
salam bahi! ur suggestions are awasome....let me ask plz :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zakhan76 on September 12, 2015, 12:11:22 PM
when it will be x-dividend?
Entry banti hai?...seniors please guide...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 12, 2015, 10:04:24 PM
when it will be x-dividend?
Entry banti hai?...seniors please guide...

its already Xd
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on September 12, 2015, 10:17:52 PM
sabir bro,
avoid NRL like a plague until Q1 figures out of way :rtfm:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zakhan76 on September 13, 2015, 01:05:40 PM
JazakAllah Seniors  ::)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on October 15, 2015, 01:08:10 AM
sabir bro,
avoid NRL like a plague until Q1 figures out of way :rtfm:

result tomorrow. hold with stop loss .. atrl can be nice below 200 lets c
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on October 15, 2015, 12:15:32 PM
5.08

Far less dev impact.

Way better than expectations
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on October 31, 2015, 12:10:56 AM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/reports_pdf/Financial_Statements_Sep30_2015_for_KSE_DS.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on October 31, 2015, 03:04:39 PM
I like nrl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on October 31, 2015, 03:41:48 PM
I like nrl
how much :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on November 01, 2015, 06:09:17 AM
I like nrl
how much :skeptic:
salam bahi, 1.5 shah tou hay hi....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on November 01, 2015, 01:37:36 PM
I like nrl
how much :skeptic:

i think atrl jama karna chahiyae
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 26, 2016, 10:20:23 AM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Stock_Cheeta on January 26, 2016, 12:27:49 PM
Next q will be gud source cnfm isnside news
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 02, 2016, 05:51:00 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: arshi on February 02, 2016, 06:37:46 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl

I have invested in the f**king atrl.
Sabir bhi, should i hold atrl or sell b4 result
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 02, 2016, 06:50:04 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl

I have invested in the f**king atrl.
Sabir bhi, should i hold atrl or sell b4 result
hold till jun
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on February 02, 2016, 07:41:30 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl

I have invested in the f**king atrl.
Sabir bhi, should i hold atrl or sell b4 result
hold till jun


Sabir bhai whats the news behind nrl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 02, 2016, 07:44:40 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl
no particular news.....good earning expectations
I have invested in the f**king atrl.
Sabir bhi, should i hold atrl or sell b4 result
hold till jun


Sabir bhai whats the news behind nrl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: alicima on February 02, 2016, 08:25:28 PM
CPEC main sab se pehley asphalt hi to use hoga. APL & NRL both make asphalt, construction of bridges and motorways under the Pakistan China Economic Corridor, APL is likely to be a key beneficiary as APL is the largest player in the Asphalt market (~90% market share).
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on February 02, 2016, 08:37:37 PM
CPEC main sab se pehley asphalt hi to use hoga. APL & NRL both make asphalt, construction of bridges and motorways under the Pakistan China Economic Corridor, APL is likely to be a key beneficiary as APL is the largest player in the Asphalt market (~90% market share).

APL doesn't produce it markets
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on February 02, 2016, 09:25:29 PM
CPEC main sab se pehley asphalt hi to use hoga. APL & NRL both make asphalt, construction of bridges and motorways under the Pakistan China Economic Corridor, APL is likely to be a key beneficiary as APL is the largest player in the Asphalt market (~90% market share).

APL doesn't produce it markets

i am not sure apl is the largest player anymore
PARCO sells asphalt as well and anyone can immport it
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on February 02, 2016, 10:38:41 PM
CPEC main sab se pehley asphalt hi to use hoga. APL & NRL both make asphalt, construction of bridges and motorways under the Pakistan China Economic Corridor, APL is likely to be a key beneficiary as APL is the largest player in the Asphalt market (~90% market share).

APL doesn't produce it markets

I think asphalt is the by product of all the refineries than y nrl only ...!!

i am not sure apl is the largest player anymore
PARCO sells asphalt as well and anyone can immport it
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: alicima on February 03, 2016, 09:53:53 AM
From last year

KASB Securities
http://wishstocks.com/2015/06/19/attock-petroleum-apl-asphalt-recovery-en-route-raise-po-to-prs648-buy/

JS Global
http://investorguide360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/M28MAY15.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: arshi on February 09, 2016, 09:26:49 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
Excellent result. Will it make 400 now. What about atrl result tmrow?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: srali14 on February 25, 2016, 10:37:53 AM
Low price of refined oil products may increase consumption and oil refineries definitely enjoy more as demand increased.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on March 03, 2016, 02:03:29 PM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2015-16/FINAL_HALF_YEARLY_ACCOUNTS_2015.pdf

 NRL has 18 billion rupees in cash, and has already invested 10 billion out of 36 billion required for the upgrade project .. that means they will only require roughly 10 -12 billion debt to complete the upgradation
 which they can afford it seems
 gov has extended deadline to june 2017
NRL project will complete by may 2017
Fuel segment reported a profit (200million) after a long time
major profit is from lube segment as always
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on March 03, 2016, 03:40:19 PM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2015-16/FINAL_HALF_YEARLY_ACCOUNTS_2015.pdf

 NRL has 18 billion rupees in cash, and has already invested 10 billion out of 36 billion required for the upgrade project .. that means they will only require roughly 10 -12 billion debt to complete the upgradation
 which they can afford it seems
 gov has extended deadline to june 2017
NRL project will complete by may 2017
Fuel segment reported a profit (200million) after a long time
major profit is from lube segment as always

Their project cost is 35B right?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on March 03, 2016, 04:12:44 PM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2015-16/FINAL_HALF_YEARLY_ACCOUNTS_2015.pdf

 NRL has 18 billion rupees in cash, and has already invested 10 billion out of 36 billion required for the upgrade project .. that means they will only require roughly 10 -12 billion debt to complete the upgradation
 which they can afford it seems
 gov has extended deadline to june 2017
NRL project will complete by may 2017
Fuel segment reported a profit (200million) after a long time
major profit is from lube segment as always

Their project cost is 35B right?

yes 35-36-37
depending on cost overruns and pkr:usd
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on March 03, 2016, 04:13:22 PM
i added a few billion extra for increased wc requirement etc
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on March 04, 2016, 10:47:50 AM
i added a few billion extra for increased wc requirement etc

What will be effect on its financials after the above said project is completed
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on March 04, 2016, 03:02:53 PM
i added a few billion extra for increased wc requirement etc

What will be effect on its financials after the above said project is completed

cant put an exact number on it ...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on March 04, 2016, 11:39:26 PM
i added a few billion extra for increased wc requirement etc

What will be effect on its financials after the above said project is completed

cant put an exact number on it ...

Is it recommended to get long in nrl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Cheetah on April 12, 2016, 05:37:22 PM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 12, 2016, 11:07:15 PM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?

i think 30 rupees in q3 ki baat horahi hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on April 13, 2016, 12:30:48 AM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?

i think 30 rupees in q3 ki baat horahi hai

May be very low then that figure!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 13, 2016, 10:47:37 AM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?

i think 30 rupees in q3 ki baat horahi hai

May be very low then that figure!

chalo dekhtay hain .. refineries analysts ko zaleel karnay keliya bani hoti hain
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on April 13, 2016, 11:22:12 AM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?

i think 30 rupees in q3 ki baat horahi hai

(http://puu.sh/ogr6C/9f78941c3f.png)

http://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/079784.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SAM71 on April 13, 2016, 11:35:29 AM
Great prediction....SBM :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on April 13, 2016, 02:39:47 PM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?

i think 30 rupees in q3 ki baat horahi hai

May be very low then that figure!

chalo dekhtay hain .. refineries analysts ko zaleel karnay keliya bani hoti hain

Superb
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Stock_Cheeta on April 13, 2016, 03:43:01 PM
Han Bhai .. Kya karna hai iska? Kya result larahay ho?

i think 30 rupees in q3 ki baat horahi hai

May be very low then that figure!

chalo dekhtay hain .. refineries analysts ko zaleel karnay keliya bani hoti hain
SBM bro PRL k  bare m kia kahange?Result?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on April 13, 2016, 10:44:43 PM
is rate per buying bunti hai?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on April 14, 2016, 11:03:25 AM
game on hai, loo mall cap o cap 400+ In Sha Allah :dance :dance
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on April 14, 2016, 01:04:01 PM
lagta hai kisi ko khushi he nahe hoi upper cap ke. koi post nahe, koi revue nahe.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on April 15, 2016, 10:33:45 AM
another cap.... :dance :dance Ma Sha Allah.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on April 20, 2016, 10:39:25 PM
best preformance today but no comment on this
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: alicima on April 21, 2016, 02:22:40 AM
kya 400 tak jaa skta hay? in 1year time?

mujay iss share me potential nazar aa ra hay...SBM comments plz :thanks:

I like nrl
how much :skeptic:
salam bahi, 1.5 shah tou hay hi....

I am going to invest in NRL for next 2 years....

I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl

I have invested in the f**king atrl.
Sabir bhi, should i hold atrl or sell b4 result
hold till jun

I like nrl

best preformance today but no comment on this
Sabir bhai app he kehte thay 400 ka hai ab to inshaallah ho jaye ga, please come back on forum.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 01:23:52 AM
(http://puu.sh/oDZok/75501999f5.png)


http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2015-16/third_quarter_march_31_2016.pdf

they have enough cash to complete the upgradation project without resorting to any long term debt
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on May 03, 2016, 01:28:05 AM
Oh that is some news!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Omer The Researcher on May 03, 2016, 01:44:16 PM
isay tou cap kero yaar  :fingerscrossed1:

Insha Allah
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: toka22 on May 09, 2016, 03:52:32 PM
isay tou cap kero yaar  :fingerscrossed1:

Insha Allah

Aoa

Sir any caps in sight ya baich dain?

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on May 10, 2016, 11:44:17 AM
Converting NRL to ATRL may be a right move!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on May 23, 2016, 12:56:00 PM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
lao nrl

I have invested in the f**king atrl.
Sabir bhi, should i hold atrl or sell b4 result
hold till jun
:fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 06, 2016, 03:47:37 PM
kya 400 tak jaa skta hay? in 1year time?
chla gya 400, before 1 year time :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SMF-M on June 06, 2016, 03:50:18 PM
440 dikha skta hy ye, bohat bullish hy., its chota bhai ATRL will challenge 278 IA.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 06, 2016, 03:58:32 PM
440 dikha skta hy ye, bohat bullish hy., its chota bhai ATRL will challenge 278 IA.
278 nahi, ab 310 ki baat kero :thanks:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SMF-M on June 06, 2016, 04:38:17 PM
ATRL 315, 278 is for tomorrow IA.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 06, 2016, 04:40:35 PM
ATRL 315, 278 is for tomorrow IA.
yeah, once it broke the major resistance of 278, 310-315 on cards I.A
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali Asadullah on June 06, 2016, 06:41:04 PM
ATRL 315, 278 is for tomorrow IA.
yeah, once it broke the major resistance of 278, 310-315 on cards I.A
And Sabir Hussain what you will say about PRL?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 06, 2016, 07:26:48 PM
ATRL 315, 278 is for tomorrow IA.
yeah, once it broke the major resistance of 278, 310-315 on cards I.A
And Sabir Hussain what you will say about PRL?
hold
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 06, 2016, 09:58:08 PM
440 dikha skta hy ye, bohat bullish hy., its chota bhai ATRL will challenge 278 IA.
464 is all time high (after 2002), and 305 is all time high for atrl (after 2002)..."GAME ON HAY" :shoaby:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Omer The Researcher on June 20, 2016, 01:04:03 AM
440 dikha skta hy ye, bohat bullish hy., its chota bhai ATRL will challenge 278 IA.

Strong rumor in market that NRL`s expansion ll be completed in August ............. aagay Allah Knows best :)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on June 20, 2016, 01:31:05 AM
game on hai, loo mall cap o cap 400+ In Sha Allah :dance :dance
abhi thori break hai, after eid it will go above 500 In sha Allah
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 22, 2016, 02:44:49 PM
440 dikha skta hy ye, bohat bullish hy., its chota bhai ATRL will challenge 278 IA.
464 is all time high (after 2002), and 305 is all time high for atrl (after 2002)..."GAME ON HAY" :shoaby:
nrl broke itsall time high.....atrl :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: zahid on July 14, 2016, 04:02:40 PM
game on hai, loo mall cap o cap 400+ In Sha Allah :dance :dance
abhi thori break hai, after eid it will go above 500 In sha Allah

600 tak ja sakta hai,50% aj Profit taking ke hai, hold 50% upto result
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on July 18, 2016, 03:19:59 PM
uffffffffff :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on July 18, 2016, 11:05:14 PM
dont invest now risk outweights benefit now :dunno:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on July 18, 2016, 11:06:37 PM
dont invest now risk outweights benefit now :dunno:
yeah....agreed
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: JAWAD on July 19, 2016, 12:31:30 AM
dont invest now risk outweights benefit now :dunno:
yeah....agreed

It may touch 1000/- if it kept on moving as it is ....!!!!

I think general public do not have this scrip...!!


Note : its not a buy call just a thought ..!!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on July 19, 2016, 01:19:00 AM
dont invest now risk outweights benefit now :dunno:
yeah....agreed

It may touch 1000/- if it kept on moving as it is ....!!!!

I think general public do not have this scrip...!!


Note : its not a buy call just a thought ..!!

No it may touch 10000/- if it keep on moving like this!!!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on July 19, 2016, 01:37:13 AM
dont invest now risk outweights benefit now :dunno:
yeah....agreed

max 700

It may touch 1000/- if it kept on moving as it is ....!!!!

I think general public do not have this scrip...!!


Note : its not a buy call just a thought ..!!

No it may touch 10000/- if it keep on moving like this!!!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: akbar.aqil on July 19, 2016, 12:13:51 PM
800+ easy
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rational.investor on July 19, 2016, 02:12:52 PM
800+ easy

Reason?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on August 12, 2016, 11:37:13 AM
I like nrl
:fingerscrossed1:
  :crying_anim02:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 12, 2016, 02:18:53 PM
Rumors are rife about NRL giving bonus.Be very careful as NRL does not have a bonus history, hefty dividends yes.
Just pointing to the payout trend, coud also announce a bonus but history negates.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: akbar.aqil on August 12, 2016, 02:43:34 PM
800+ easy

Reason?

97 eps pe bhi 800 na ho tu bekaar hai!!! Payout is important. Public expecting bonus!!!! If it doesnt come, it can come down
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 12, 2016, 02:48:01 PM
Perhaps some brokers could not get a hold of it and while the EPS may come out to be what is making rounds, bonus has been deliberately spread so when the company does not announce bonus it comes down.
Just a conspiracy theory.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rational.investor on August 12, 2016, 03:56:37 PM
Main issue is sustainability of margins.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rational.investor on August 15, 2016, 01:10:18 PM
96 EPS and 20 cash dividend.

Cheap enough to buy?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 15, 2016, 01:18:34 PM
Lucky for the shareholders it did not tank due to Non bonus. the EPS is fantastic, all time high?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rational.investor on August 15, 2016, 01:31:32 PM
You mean there were chances of downside after such a result :/

Yes highest in the last ten years atleast.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 15, 2016, 02:07:49 PM
Of course KSE is replete with such instances
Not too distant past is Archoma with excellent result and nearly lower lock
In the past, DGKC and Lucky both tanked with great results
No share had the multiples like NRL though, but if the market was more gungho on bonus it would have tanked. notwithstanding a geat EPS.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on August 15, 2016, 03:09:36 PM
Rumors are rife about NRL giving bonus.Be very careful as NRL does not have a bonus history, hefty dividends yes.
Just pointing to the payout trend, coud also announce a bonus but history negates.

it was in no ones interest to give bonus shares
why pay extra taxes
awein rumours spread kiya hain
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 15, 2016, 07:45:27 PM
Btw not that great a result.
Sales have plummtted in value terms
It is the COGS that has made all the difference and has to closing inventory gains
what if crude goes down between now and next qtr.

Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ksenewb on September 10, 2016, 12:45:37 PM
Aggressive accumulation in past couple of days, looks ready to take off  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on September 18, 2016, 12:35:52 AM
Now heading towards 700
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salammembers on September 18, 2016, 03:50:46 AM
Now heading towards 700
Nadeem Bhai 48.20 walaay Prl Ka Kia karna hAay?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on September 18, 2016, 12:56:10 PM
Hold
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 18, 2016, 04:00:28 PM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2015-16/NRL_ANNUAL_REPORT_2016.pdf

(http://puu.sh/rfk0C/87e421c185.png)

they will use much much less borrowing for the dhds and isom projects than initially envisaged

NRL has already invested 19.7 billion out of 37 billion required from internally generated cash
if 2017 is another bumper year they might end up borrowing less than 10 billion
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on October 13, 2016, 03:32:36 PM
strong buy
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: alicima on October 19, 2016, 02:14:06 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/sya6vs.jpg)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Rokie on October 19, 2016, 10:32:46 PM
---------------------------------------
National Refinery Limited
(NRL)   
August 15th, 201612:13:04 PM   
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2016
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,089.026
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,688.076
EPS = 96.14
DIVIDEND = 200%
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 26/09/2016
BOOK CLOSURE FROM 16/09/2016
BOOK CLOSURE TO 26/09/2016
------------------------------------------
National Refinery Limited
(NRL)   
October 19th, 2016 11:47:08 AM   
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ENDED 30/09/2016
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 1,922.199
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 1,905.331
EPS = 23.83
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorry to say i am just learning stock market what i analyze that EPS is less than the june result. Is it because june has consolidated year EPS? or something else please guide if anyone can.

THanks
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sarmad26 on October 19, 2016, 11:12:59 PM
---------------------------------------
National Refinery Limited
(NRL)   
August 15th, 201612:13:04 PM   
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2016
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,089.026
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,688.076
EPS = 96.14
DIVIDEND = 200%
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 26/09/2016
BOOK CLOSURE FROM 16/09/2016
BOOK CLOSURE TO 26/09/2016
------------------------------------------
National Refinery Limited
(NRL)   
October 19th, 2016 11:47:08 AM   
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ENDED 30/09/2016
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 1,922.199
PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 1,905.331
EPS = 23.83
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorry to say i am just learning stock market what i analyze that EPS is less than the june result. Is it because june has consolidated year EPS? or something else please guide if anyone can.

THanks

June result was the full year result and today's result was just of a single quarter
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Rokie on October 19, 2016, 11:25:01 PM
Thanks sarmad. I am learning  :thanks:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kamiln on October 19, 2016, 11:37:19 PM
Earnings don't look to be all that bad, why is NRL going down?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on November 03, 2016, 04:10:20 PM
broken the resistance of 598, and closed above 600, lao maaL 900
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salman Aslam on December 22, 2016, 10:54:13 AM
I think NRL is getting really attractive to buy.... any suggestion seniors...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salman Aslam on December 27, 2016, 01:28:20 PM
 :shoaby: :shoaby: :good :good :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: alicima on January 06, 2017, 03:17:52 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/1z3o6io.jpg)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 10, 2017, 04:12:05 PM
target 996
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: RSI Fan on January 10, 2017, 06:22:32 PM
target 996
time frame?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Salman Aslam on January 11, 2017, 12:34:36 PM
 :clap1: :clap1: :shoaby: :shoaby: :dance :dance :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Mightee on January 17, 2017, 10:55:36 AM
 :shoaby: :clap1: :dance
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 17, 2017, 11:18:19 AM
target 996
;)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 17, 2017, 01:31:05 PM
 :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 17, 2017, 06:47:34 PM
Most deserving item for entering in 1k club
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jaz on January 17, 2017, 07:40:25 PM
Most deserving item for entering in 1k club
What about atrl  :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 18, 2017, 09:43:31 AM
:dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance :dance
the lion roars :rtfm:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 18, 2017, 06:51:09 PM
NRL me say awam total absent hay, and that's the card
 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: srali14 on January 19, 2017, 10:29:36 AM
NRL me say awam total absent hay, and that's the card
 :biggthumpup:

Anyway, no doubt good gain by NRL, good example for other oil refineries.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 19, 2017, 08:05:02 PM
With an Approx 100 EPS of FY17
It will enter in 1K club soon!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 20, 2017, 07:04:22 PM
Good performance today.. :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 27, 2017, 10:57:21 AM
2nd Q EPS 25.79
HFY EPS 49.62
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 27, 2017, 10:58:32 AM
2nd Q EPS 25.79
HFY EPS 49.62

After this result it should enter in 1K club
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 27, 2017, 11:07:55 AM
Heavy buying is observed !!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Mightee on January 27, 2017, 11:09:20 AM
2nd Q EPS 25.79
HFY EPS 49.62

After this result it should enter in 1K club

in -ve for the time being
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 27, 2017, 11:16:57 AM
2nd Q EPS 25.79
HFY EPS 49.62

After this result it should enter in 1K club

in -ve for the time being

The reason for -ive is that EPS for this quarter is less than previous year 2nd Q
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: alicima on January 27, 2017, 11:22:34 AM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/20stzer.jpg)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: momo on January 27, 2017, 12:45:59 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/20stzer.jpg)

Why are taxes so low? Deferred tax assets?

If so, it's a one time affect, meaning actual EPS is much lower. Gross margins are also very tight.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Thelma on January 27, 2017, 03:33:22 PM
So what do seniors suggest .is it hood to go to 1000 or not
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 31, 2017, 07:05:10 PM
Good performance today
Heavy buying observed today
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: sabir.hussain on January 31, 2017, 07:26:13 PM
Good performance today
Heavy buying observed today
sell atrl, nrl
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ahsan28 on January 31, 2017, 08:15:08 PM
Good performance today
Heavy buying observed today
sell atrl, nrl

Sabir bhai why?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ranjha on May 26, 2017, 03:43:42 PM
Too much silent about NRL.  :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Atif Ali on June 08, 2017, 01:42:31 PM
Too much silent about NRL.  :skeptic:
Accumulation going on. :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: MZ on June 22, 2017, 06:24:44 PM

NRL: Commencement of Operations from Diesel Hydro Desulphurization and Isomerization Units
Ø  National Refinery Limited (NRL) just announced via notice to PSX that its Diesel Hydro Desulphurization (DHDS) and Auxiliary Units have successfully started operations. Completion of DHDS ha enabled the Refinery to comply with government directives to produce High Speed Diesel (HSD) meeting low Sulphur (500ppm) Euro-II specification. The Plant has a potential to reduce Sulphur content to a value as low as 10 ppm.
Ø  Moreover, NRL also revealed that Naphtha Isomerization (ISOM) Unit is in start-up phase where its Auxiliary Units (Naphtha Splitter and Naphtha Hydrotreater) have already been commissioned and the Refinery will produce additional Motor Gasoline by Mid of July 2017.
Ø  With a reduction in oil prices, we believe GRMs will increase for all refineries primarily for NRL. We also expect margins to go up in the lube business due to a reduction in oil prices.
Ø  We will update investors once we get more colour from management. NRL is currently trading at an undemanding P/E of only 6.5x for FY17 earnings.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on July 05, 2017, 03:44:58 PM
Y lower lock wht happen
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on July 05, 2017, 07:32:38 PM
Seniors please tell kiya hoga iska
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Srse91 on July 06, 2017, 02:44:35 AM
Just hold and relax..this will give you good profits soon Insha Allah.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: karehman on July 06, 2017, 02:04:12 PM
aik aur LL huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on August 21, 2017, 10:01:57 PM
Kia scene hai ismai :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 08, 2017, 08:11:33 PM
Result expectation :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Mightee on September 11, 2017, 10:02:33 AM
Result is going to be great, but like last quarter result market kaise react krti ye koi ni bta skta
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Mightee on September 11, 2017, 12:32:48 PM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/102516.pdf  :mad:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on September 11, 2017, 01:28:53 PM
Kahn taak ja sakta hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on September 11, 2017, 02:12:02 PM
saved by tax figure, 2.2 billion savings over last year, tax credit? otherwise the EPS would be horrible.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on September 11, 2017, 04:58:09 PM
saved by tax figure, 2.2 billion savings over last year, tax credit? otherwise the EPS would be horrible.

Yes, large tax credit due to big upgradation/ expansion capex
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 11, 2017, 05:00:18 PM
Down kitna jasakta hai?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farhan Kermani on September 11, 2017, 05:21:57 PM
Koee bhut ziada naheen, mkt sentiments r going to chnge soon.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on September 11, 2017, 07:29:10 PM
I think kal lower lock page sakta hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 12, 2017, 11:10:03 PM
 :skeptic: :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 13, 2017, 04:32:01 PM
700 cross karega? ::) :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 14, 2017, 01:29:59 AM
Any comments... :dunno:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 16, 2017, 12:56:18 AM
Atrl lower lock now wht is going on in Nrl????
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 18, 2017, 09:01:55 PM
?? :$:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 20, 2017, 03:55:48 PM
 :confused1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 21, 2017, 07:25:21 AM
Refinery ki demand increase hoi hai??? :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on September 30, 2017, 08:20:42 PM
Laooo 700+ InshaAllah
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on September 30, 2017, 09:30:32 PM
Nxt year full year result per 1100 InshAllah
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on October 02, 2017, 09:36:31 PM
Same story like atrl 490M !

http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2016-17/NRL-AR-2017-2-10-2017.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aqadir92 on October 03, 2017, 12:39:44 AM
Same story like atrl 490M !

http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2016-17/NRL-AR-2017-2-10-2017.pdf

Impact?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on October 10, 2017, 09:35:01 PM
National Refinery NRL PA +1.2% recovered over 5% from its intra-day low as company notified exchange of commencement of its Isomerization unit which will almost double its current production of Motor Gasoline going forward.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ABNEIQBAL on October 20, 2017, 02:06:56 PM
NRL profit drops

National Refinery Limited’s (NRL) profit dropped 11% to Rs1.70 billion in the quarter ended September 30 due to slightly higher cost of sales.

The refinery had booked the profit at Rs1.90 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. On the other hand, EPS fell to Rs21.26 from Rs23.83.

NRL’s share price also hit upper limit of 5%, or surged Rs29.53, to Rs623.96 with a volume of 235,800 shares at the PSX. Its net sales increased 16% to Rs29.92 billion from Rs25.73 billion.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: momin234 on November 20, 2017, 06:57:12 PM
Kuch ziada maar nahi pr gae?
Any chances of it recovering??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on November 20, 2017, 10:57:56 PM
Seniors
Yeh kabe chalay ga
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: naveed on December 12, 2017, 07:49:23 PM
What is the fate of refinery sector now
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Deep_Value on December 12, 2017, 11:52:50 PM
Seniors
Yeh kabe chalay ga

Jab sab chalay ga.. Tub yeah bhe chalay ga
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: abdulsalam on January 18, 2018, 05:19:44 PM
Hello guys. Coming back to this forum after long time. Any idea on why this script was lower locked. There was no negative news about NRL. Any insider information? Results are quite near.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Deep_Value on January 18, 2018, 09:22:29 PM
Hello guys. Coming back to this forum after long time. Any idea on why this script was lower locked. There was no negative news about NRL. Any insider information? Results are quite near.

Looks like people switching to PRL :skeptic:.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 18, 2018, 09:33:58 PM
Hello guys. Coming back to this forum after long time. Any idea on why this script was lower locked. There was no negative news about NRL. Any insider information? Results are quite near.

Looks like people switching to PRL :skeptic:.

Aray bhai, NRL ki apni value hai.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 18, 2018, 09:35:43 PM
Bought some today at LL. Yeh 400 se neechay nahi lagta. Will fill up till 400. achi company hai. rakhnay wala share hai yeh.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Deep_Value on January 18, 2018, 10:15:41 PM
Hello guys. Coming back to this forum after long time. Any idea on why this script was lower locked. There was no negative news about NRL. Any insider information? Results are quite near.

Looks like people switching to PRL :skeptic:.

Aray bhai, NRL ki apni value hai.

I know but all refineries are now operation at around 60-70% capacity due to furnace oil issue which can hit their bottom line. Although govt allowed lifting local FO but refineries are cautious till summer. Also Four Power plants will also switch to RLNG which were operating on Diesel.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: raxid on January 19, 2018, 12:29:00 AM
tuesday ko board meeting hay,lets see kia hota hay. halaat bure hi lagte hain
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: abdulsalam on January 19, 2018, 10:32:40 AM
tuesday ko board meeting hay,lets see kia hota hay. halaat bure hi lagte hain
Unless there is some serious insider info that general public don't know. Current NRL rates look very attractive.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 19, 2018, 09:01:33 PM
koi NRL ka result preview post kr de.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 21, 2018, 07:48:36 PM
NRL result preview, anyone?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 21, 2018, 09:43:12 PM
NRL result preview, anyone?

i m expecting half year EPS of 32-35
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 22, 2018, 06:59:04 AM
NRL result preview, anyone?

i m expecting half year EPS of 32-35

Best!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: arshi on January 22, 2018, 07:55:23 AM
NRL result preview, anyone?

i m expecting half year EPS of 32-35
Should one buy it in any dip 400/380/360...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on January 23, 2018, 11:44:24 AM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/109003.pdf

Loss in 2q. HY EPS 20.3
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: abdulsalam on January 23, 2018, 11:57:50 AM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/109003.pdf

Loss in 2q. HY EPS 20.3

The results show loss. But that is due to major financial cost. Overall sales and profits have increased.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 23, 2018, 01:53:42 PM
aaj sanbhal rahe hain, kal pittayi lagti hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Atif1 on January 23, 2018, 06:14:41 PM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/109003.pdf

Loss in 2q. HY EPS 20.3

The results show loss. But that is due to major financial cost. Overall sales and profits have increased.

No major factor is decrease in gross margins, although finance cost is also increased
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: abdulsalam on January 24, 2018, 03:51:01 PM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/109003.pdf

Loss in 2q. HY EPS 20.3

The results show loss. But that is due to major financial cost. Overall sales and profits have increased.

No major factor is decrease in gross margins, although finance cost is also increased
Today it capped. Though one concern I had is general increase of cost of sales. Cost of sales for ATRL and NRL both increased significantly in current results. If ,cost of sales, increase is temp then this share is under value by at least 33%.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ABNEIQBAL on January 24, 2018, 03:55:22 PM
Pure & Transparent SATTA  :$:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 24, 2018, 05:21:32 PM
Pure & Transparent SATTA  :$:

Bhai mein ne tou maaray aaj 434 par
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on March 09, 2018, 12:06:38 PM

Thursday - Mar 08, 2018 | 12:58:36 | 106 of 120
Material Info We are pleased to inform that National Refinery Limited (the Company) has entered into an agreement with M/s. HUALU of China and signed Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC) contract for Revamp of Two-Stage Distillation Unit at Lube-I Refinery. With the contract value of US$ 8.429 million, the total estimated project cost is Rs.1.329 billion approximately. The funding of the project will be arranged by company's own resources and the said project is expected to be completed in eighteen months. The Revamp Project aims to increase Company's crude oil processing capacity by 5,000 barrels per day and LBO production by 6,000 M. Tons per year. You may please inform the TRE Certificate holders of the Exchange accordingly.

https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/111475.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farzooq on April 03, 2018, 09:41:43 PM
(https://www.icis.com/assets/getasset.aspx?ItemID=842702)

SN 500 Base Oil FOB Iran prices were hovering in the range of USD 750 – 765 PMT
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Shakir123 on April 03, 2018, 09:58:23 PM
Means worst share kabe hoga 750
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ABNEIQBAL on April 09, 2018, 10:48:57 PM
NRL   National Refinery Limited   3rd Quarter   Apr 16th, 2018 10:00 AM
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Ali on April 17, 2018, 04:49:03 PM

Can anyone guide where to buy?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: valuedemon on April 17, 2018, 09:11:49 PM

Can anyone guide where to buy?
Artl offers better valuations imho
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: SBM on May 01, 2018, 05:01:04 PM
http://www.nrlpak.com/pdf/FinancialReport/2017-18/NRL-FS-for-Nine-Months-Ended-March-31-2018-Final.pdf
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on July 30, 2018, 03:06:55 PM
Any update for NRL? sleeping or only going down....
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: optimistic on November 01, 2018, 06:20:42 PM
Going cap o cap but no one follows.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on November 02, 2018, 01:27:48 AM
Going cap o cap but no one follows.

350 tak ka scene lagta hai.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: optimistic on November 02, 2018, 01:53:27 AM
Going cap o cap but no one follows.

350 tak ka scene lagta hai.

What is view on PRL ?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on November 02, 2018, 02:19:38 AM
Going cap o cap but no one follows.

350 tak ka scene lagta hai.

What is view on PRL ?

34 max. But i like NRL more. Less free-float and more volatile movements. I got out of BYCO and got in in NRL at 245 when both Byco and ATRL posted gains of 40-45% from their bottom lows. Us waqt NRL had hardly gone up by 10 % from its low of 222 so that made sense. Isi lye 350 justified lagta hai.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kashif_khan on November 02, 2018, 04:01:54 PM
NRL Ka dividend credit ho gaya?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: rashid.Maria on November 14, 2018, 06:16:26 PM
NRL 450
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jahangir on November 14, 2018, 06:47:05 PM
but there is 327 before 450  :D


https://invst.ly/97fxw
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aharoon on November 14, 2018, 07:02:10 PM
but there is 327 before 450  :D


https://invst.ly/97fxw
Oo Bhai Jahangir tum ye apnay graph links apnay pass hee rakho.. Avaeen disturb Kar rahay Hain .. Inka Koe faida Nahin honay Wala group members ko..
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jahangir on November 14, 2018, 07:02:16 PM
Bit what aboout monthily @180 test  ;)
https://invst.ly/97g6k (https://invst.ly/97g6k)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Amjad Ali on November 14, 2018, 07:16:32 PM
but there is 327 before 450  :D


https://invst.ly/97fxw
Oo Bhai Jahangir tum ye apnay graph links apnay pass hee rakho.. Avaeen disturb Kar rahay Hain .. Inka Koe faida Nahin honay Wala group members ko..

faida hosakta hey ager ye indicators k saath post karen, takey trend ka pata chal sakey
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Amjad Ali on November 14, 2018, 07:21:00 PM
NRL 450


rashid bhai or maria baji, koi logical reason tu bataya karen k keyon 450. long term major trend tu shadeed bearish hey. short term trend may 370 tak ja sakta hey
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Amjad Ali on November 14, 2018, 07:26:10 PM
but there is 327 before 450  :D


https://invst.ly/97fxw
Oo Bhai Jahangir tum ye apnay graph links apnay pass hee rakho.. Avaeen disturb Kar rahay Hain .. Inka Koe faida Nahin honay Wala group members ko..

faida hosakta hey ager ye indicators k saath post karen, takey trend ka pata chal sakey

Jahangir bhai aik tarhan say aharoon bhai sahi keh rahey hen, keyon k ye charts jo aap post kar rahey ho incomplete picture peysh kar rahey hen or na hi ye kisi ko samajh aaengey or na hi kisi ko faida hoga. indicators or sma lines k saath post karen.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jahangir on November 14, 2018, 08:03:40 PM
[quote author = Amjad Ali link = topic = 295.msg340274 # msg340274 date = 1542205570]
[quote author = Amjad Ali link = topic = 295.msg340271 # msg340271 date = 1542204992]
[quote author = aharoon link = topic = 295.msg340267 # msg340267 date = 1542204130]
[quote author = jahangir link = topic = 295.msg340266 # msg340266 date = 1542203225]
but there was 327 before 450  :D


https://invst.ly/97fxw (https://invst.ly/97fxw)
 [/ quote]
Oo Bhai Jahangir tum ye apnay graph links have been passed .. Avaeen disturb Kar rahay hain .. Inka Koe faida noah wala group members ko ..
[/ quote]

He is going to post with indicators, takey trend ka pata chal sakey
[/ quote]

Jahangir bhai said, "I do not know how to do charts, you are going to post an incomplete picture or you do not want to talk about something or you have no idea what to do. Post with indicators indicating how many lines s
[/ quote]


Ok. bro I was trading in kse since 2006. I use to use amibroker and lot of indicators. switch to forex and internatinal markets. What I come to know is. naver ever use indcators. these are all lagging even price is also lagging. "market" is the key. but what is market. very few know about it what I am refering about bery few know  it . my charts are very basic type. just for basic info. There is lot more to consider before make a trade I will come into it in near future.  ;)
[size=78%]     [/size]



[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: jahangir on November 14, 2018, 08:05:55 PM
[quote author = Amjad Ali link = topic = 295.msg340274 # msg340274 date = 1542205570]
[quote author = Amjad Ali link = topic = 295.msg340271 # msg340271 date = 1542204992]
[quote author = aharoon link = topic = 295.msg340267 # msg340267 date = 1542204130]
[quote author = jahangir link = topic = 295.msg340266 # msg340266 date = 1542203225]
but there was 327 before 450  :D


https://invst.ly/97fxw (https://invst.ly/97fxw)
 [/ quote]
Oo Bhai Jahangir tum ye apnay graph links have been passed .. Avaeen disturb Kar rahay hain .. Inka Koe faida noah wala group members ko ..
[/ quote]

He is going to post with indicators, takey trend ka pata chal sakey
[/ quote]

Jahangir bhai said, "I do not know how to do charts, you are going to post an incomplete picture or you do not want to talk about something or you have no idea what to do. Post with indicators indicating how many lines s
[/ quote]



[size=78%]     [/size]



[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[/quote]Ok. bro I am trading in kse since 2006. I use to use amibroker and lot of indicators. switch to forex and internatinal markets. What I come to know is. naver ever use indcators. these are all lagging even price is also lagging. "market" is the key. but what is market. very few know about it what I am refering about very few know  it . my charts are very basic type. just for basic info. There is lot more to consider before make a trade I will come into it in near future. ;)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farooq Qadir on February 22, 2019, 11:27:20 AM
NRL going to UL
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Hassan_Ali_Khan on March 13, 2019, 10:26:40 AM
What should be buying price of NRL and ATRL?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on March 14, 2019, 02:42:32 AM
What should be buying price of NRL and ATRL?

I would buy at 160 and 80 respectively.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: optimistic on March 15, 2019, 10:29:36 PM
NRL (-5%), PRL (-3.2 %) and ATRL (-3.4%) from the refinery sector closed lower than their previous day close on back of the news that International Maritime Organization (IMO) will enforce new emissions standards requiring ships to use fuel oil with a sulphur content of less than 0.5 percent compared to the current 3.5 percent, which will impact sales of local refineries producing fuel oil with sulphur in range of 3.5 to 1.0 percent. The new standards would be implemented from January 2020.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farooq Qadir on March 18, 2019, 03:39:37 PM

Nearly 900K shares traded...Unusual Volume   :fingerscrossed1: :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aharoon on March 18, 2019, 03:44:18 PM

Nearly 900K shares traded...Unusual Volume   :fingerscrossed1: :fingerscrossed1:
Bola tha  na yaar Big Guns main Deals Done hoo rahee Hain Item wise
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farooq Qadir on March 19, 2019, 12:49:36 PM

Nearly 900K shares traded...Unusual Volume   :fingerscrossed1: :fingerscrossed1:
Bola tha  na yaar Big Guns main Deals Done hoo rahee Hain Item wise

NRL on fire , look at the volume.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Beginner on March 20, 2019, 08:26:03 PM
Yr ajj phir heavy volume tha iss mai. agressive selling hui thi lower cap k pas, but cap ni lag paya. At the end of the trading session around 85,000 shares buying k lye thay at lower cap. it looks interesting at current level. Can any senior guide me about it?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: optimistic on March 21, 2019, 02:09:36 AM
2010 year low 160

Lagta ha below 150 milay ga  huhu
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on March 21, 2019, 10:33:09 PM
Bhai Refineries ke saath woh hi ho raha hai jo 1.5 saal pehle fertilizers ke saath hua tha. Ultimate lows bana kr sab nikal wa liya phr saaray mutual funds ghuss kr beth gaye EEFERT or FFC mein. Don't count Engro Corp coz uska khel alag hai. Aaaj kuch bhi ho jaye, EFERT or FFC strong rehte hain coz b woh unka share hai. Yaqeeen nahi ata tou SCStrade ki site par ja kr MF ki investments check krlo in mein.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Mohammad Zafar Siddiqui on March 22, 2019, 12:37:45 PM
huge losses in ATRL and NRL
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farooq Qadir on March 22, 2019, 04:17:01 PM

Nearly 900K shares traded...Unusual Volume   :fingerscrossed1: :fingerscrossed1:
Bola tha  na yaar Big Guns main Deals Done hoo rahee Hain Item wise

NRL on fire , look at the volume.

 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Farooq Qadir on March 27, 2019, 10:29:40 AM

Nearly 900K shares traded...Unusual Volume   :fingerscrossed1: :fingerscrossed1:
Bola tha  na yaar Big Guns main Deals Done hoo rahee Hain Item wise

NRL on fire , look at the volume.

 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1:

Laooooooo Mall :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: umair vohra on July 23, 2019, 12:31:41 PM
bhai koi is gareeb per bhe nazar sani karain.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aatradekhi on July 26, 2019, 11:56:54 AM
bhai koi is gareeb per bhe nazar sani karain.

is ko GAREEB RLNG nay bana dia  ;)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aatradekhi on July 26, 2019, 12:23:15 PM
bhai koi is gareeb per bhe nazar sani karain.

is ko GAREEB RLNG nay bana dia  ;)

Senior buying range ??
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aatradekhi on July 26, 2019, 03:48:42 PM
bhai koi is gareeb per bhe nazar sani karain.

is ko GAREEB RLNG nay bana dia  ;)

Senior buying range ??

????
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on July 26, 2019, 10:45:36 PM
bhai koi is gareeb per bhe nazar sani karain.

is ko GAREEB RLNG nay bana dia  ;)

Senior buying range ??

????

70 par bharlo
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on August 06, 2019, 06:16:55 AM
NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on August 06, 2019, 07:11:35 AM
NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

Refineries have numerous issues,
Furnace oil is the biggest,without HFO offtake they cannot produce other products,
they can export it till 2020 by still making loss but after 2020 they cannot even export it due to the restrictions coming
internationally.
The other thing is high debt 13b in march quarter and will increase due to higher working capital rquirements(160$)
+ive thing for NRL is its lube refinery and if crude oil price dives it will give enormous boost to its earnings

Future is uncertain unless govt comes up with some support package
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: hasboo on August 06, 2019, 12:30:27 PM
FO offtake is no respite . Unless there is someone buying furnace and cracking it further to MO HSD
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on August 06, 2019, 10:14:39 PM
NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

Refineries have numerous issues,
Furnace oil is the biggest,without HFO offtake they cannot produce other products,
they can export it till 2020 by still making loss but after 2020 they cannot even export it due to the restrictions coming
internationally.
The other thing is high debt 13b in march quarter and will increase due to higher working capital rquirements(160$)
+ive thing for NRL is its lube refinery and if crude oil price dives it will give enormous boost to its earnings

Future is uncertain unless govt comes up with some support package

Doesn't NRL has the capacity to crack FO? I thought ATRL didn't.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Alpha on August 07, 2019, 12:08:57 AM
NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

Refineries have numerous issues,
Furnace oil is the biggest,without HFO offtake they cannot produce other products,
they can export it till 2020 by still making loss but after 2020 they cannot even export it due to the restrictions coming
internationally.
The other thing is high debt 13b in march quarter and will increase due to higher working capital rquirements(160$)
+ive thing for NRL is its lube refinery and if crude oil price dives it will give enormous boost to its earnings

Future is uncertain unless govt comes up with some support package

Doesn't NRL has the capacity to crack FO? I thought ATRL didn't.

No nobody has,only naptha cracking
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on August 07, 2019, 08:25:06 PM
NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

Refineries have numerous issues,
Furnace oil is the biggest,without HFO offtake they cannot produce other products,
they can export it till 2020 by still making loss but after 2020 they cannot even export it due to the restrictions coming
internationally.
The other thing is high debt 13b in march quarter and will increase due to higher working capital rquirements(160$)
+ive thing for NRL is its lube refinery and if crude oil price dives it will give enormous boost to its earnings

Future is uncertain unless govt comes up with some support package

Doesn't NRL has the capacity to crack FO? I thought ATRL didn't.

No nobody has,only naptha cracking

Itni negative market mein bhi sanbhaal rahe hain  :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on August 09, 2019, 11:15:46 PM
Roko bhai roko roko bharne tou dou mujhe  :confused1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on August 21, 2019, 05:10:01 PM
bhai koi is gareeb per bhe nazar sani karain.

is ko GAREEB RLNG nay bana dia  ;)

Senior buying range ??

????

70 par bharlo

NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

Refineries have numerous issues,
Furnace oil is the biggest,without HFO offtake they cannot produce other products,
they can export it till 2020 by still making loss but after 2020 they cannot even export it due to the restrictions coming
internationally.
The other thing is high debt 13b in march quarter and will increase due to higher working capital rquirements(160$)
+ive thing for NRL is its lube refinery and if crude oil price dives it will give enormous boost to its earnings

Future is uncertain unless govt comes up with some support package

Doesn't NRL has the capacity to crack FO? I thought ATRL didn't.

No nobody has,only naptha cracking

Itni negative market mein bhi sanbhaal rahe hain  :skeptic:

NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

Refineries have numerous issues,
Furnace oil is the biggest,without HFO offtake they cannot produce other products,
they can export it till 2020 by still making loss but after 2020 they cannot even export it due to the restrictions coming
internationally.
The other thing is high debt 13b in march quarter and will increase due to higher working capital rquirements(160$)
+ive thing for NRL is its lube refinery and if crude oil price dives it will give enormous boost to its earnings

Future is uncertain unless govt comes up with some support package

Doesn't NRL has the capacity to crack FO? I thought ATRL didn't.

Roko bhai roko roko bharne tou dou mujhe  :confused1:

NRL kesa lgta hai with eventual Rupee stability?  :skeptic:

120 lagta hai short term hai.  :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ajeebkhan on October 14, 2019, 03:42:03 PM
Tu nay 117 kiyon Tora ?? Kiyoooooon torrra ??  :shoaby: :shoaby: :dance :good :good Aahaf Bhai sahi baat na .. ;)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: safdarkbw on October 14, 2019, 08:20:42 PM
ATRL AOUR NRL ka kal 15/10/19 ko Result hai.Seniours result ki kiyaa expectation hai.??????? :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :clap1: :dance :dance :dance
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ajeebkhan on October 14, 2019, 08:59:56 PM
ATRL AOUR NRL ka kal 15/10/19 ko Result hai.Seniours result ki kiyaa expectation hai.??????? :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :clap1: :dance :dance :dance
Same as " Piddi aur Piddi ka shorba "  :laugh:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ajeebkhan on October 15, 2019, 11:50:18 AM
 :good
ATRL AOUR NRL ka kal 15/10/19 ko Result hai.Seniours result ki kiyaa expectation hai.??????? :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :clap1: :dance :dance :dance
Same as " Piddi aur Piddi ka shorba "  :laugh:
:laugh: :good :laugh: :good :laugh: :good :laugh: :good :clap1: :shoaby: :dance :dance
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aatradekhi on October 15, 2019, 12:34:12 PM
Financial Announcements
National Refinary Ltd. 1st Quarter Results September 2019
EPS 1Q = Rs (8.49)
Qty Growth = 36%
Last 1Q EPS = Rs (13.33)
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ajeebkhan on October 18, 2019, 01:31:27 PM
Bought NRL today ... I hope it will bounce back for upper cap with other refineries :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on November 09, 2019, 09:23:37 PM
Koi follow nahi kr raha par ATRL and NRL price parity itni match ho rahi hai, ismein disparity paida honay wali lagti hai yani ab NRL chalnay ke laik lagta hai.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: ajeebkhan on November 21, 2019, 08:30:47 PM
Atrl short hue purani .. Ab hamko NRL short mai mazaa Aata hai  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on November 30, 2019, 09:54:30 PM
Koi follow nahi kr raha par ATRL and NRL price parity itni match ho rahi hai, ismein disparity paida honay wali lagti hai yani ab NRL chalnay ke laik lagta hai.

shabaash leja punter isko ab 160 phr 180.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Aahaf on December 02, 2019, 01:02:58 AM
Koi follow nahi kr raha par ATRL and NRL price parity itni match ho rahi hai, ismein disparity paida honay wali lagti hai yani ab NRL chalnay ke laik lagta hai.

shabaash leja punter isko ab 160 phr 180.
haq hai
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on December 02, 2019, 04:44:13 AM
Koi follow nahi kr raha par ATRL and NRL price parity itni match ho rahi hai, ismein disparity paida honay wali lagti hai yani ab NRL chalnay ke laik lagta hai.

shabaash leja punter isko ab 160 phr 180.
haq hai

yeh cheez!  :clap1:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on December 04, 2019, 11:47:05 PM
Koi follow nahi kr raha par ATRL and NRL price parity itni match ho rahi hai, ismein disparity paida honay wali lagti hai yani ab NRL chalnay ke laik lagta hai.

shabaash leja punter isko ab 160 phr 180.
haq hai

yeh cheez!  :clap1:

Yeh cheez mere azeez! Sell at around 163
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: newser on January 01, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
NRL : buy & hold!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: kahaf on January 02, 2020, 03:39:59 PM
NRL : buy & hold!
:thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: newser on January 02, 2020, 03:45:04 PM
31st  Dec NRL trades only 100 shares - implications : Rate has bottomed out...
YTD high of about 800rs - Free Float 26mn shares - near bottom rate... Implications : ROCKET SOON!!!
NRL: Buy! Buy! Buy!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: newser on January 03, 2020, 08:49:53 PM
Big news on global front today - this will push crude oil prices up - Refinery margins will shrink - NRL, PRL: don't buy!
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: newser on January 04, 2020, 02:33:53 PM
What are some of the go to stable scripts in a down trending market.
My top two are LUCK and MEBL - are there others I should be looking at? Please advise...
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: onlybulls on January 21, 2020, 09:21:12 PM
Today both scrips half year results announced.
National refinery ka loss itna ziada kiyun ha jubke atock refinery ka loss itna ziada ni aya. Addition to 1st quarter.

Nrl ka loss 4 times se bi ziada hogia. Jubke Atrl ka loss 2 times hua.
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: nma on January 22, 2020, 12:19:32 AM
Today both scrips half year results announced.
National refinery ka loss itna ziada kiyun ha jubke atock refinery ka loss itna ziada ni aya. Addition to 1st quarter.

Nrl ka loss 4 times se bi ziada hogia. Jubke Atrl ka loss 2 times hua.

Isko yateem kr denge ab shayad. I think 119 tak milayga  :skeptic:
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Aahaf on January 22, 2020, 01:46:34 AM
After approval of furnace oil export refinaries might not be bearish that much
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: Aahaf on January 24, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
After approval of furnace oil export refinaries might not be bearish that much
:good
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: raxid on March 27, 2020, 12:52:38 AM
seniors guide pls SHOULD BUY NRL AROUND HERE?
Title: Re: NRL -- National Refinery
Post by: aatradekhi on March 27, 2020, 12:23:46 PM
seniors guide pls SHOULD BUY NRL AROUND HERE?

Accumulation k lia rate acha hai also NRL shutdown production due to low demand of PETROLEUM