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The Market ! => Pak Equities => Topic started by: Toshi on March 10, 2010, 06:44:04 PM

Title: Auto Sector
Post by: Toshi on March 10, 2010, 06:44:04 PM
All about Auto Industry.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Toshi on March 10, 2010, 06:48:24 PM
February car sales up 73%YoY

Auto sales numbers for February 2010 have been released by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers
Association (PAMA).
???? Auto (Cars + LCVs) and car sales for February 2010 are up 90%YoY and 73%YoY, respectively. Pak
Suzuki (PSMC) is the primary determinant for this growth as its sales are up 246%YoY owing to
abnormally poor sales last year. In Feb 2009, PSMC witnessed its lowest sales since Dec 2001, due to
all time high car prices and interest rates. Indus Motor (INDU) also registered a YoY growth of 38% on
the back of impressive sales of Corolla. Moreover, Honda Car posted a growth of 15%YoY.
???? However, on a month on month basis, auto and car sales were down 7% and 10%, respectively. The
decline in sales is mainly owing to higher sales in Jan because of the New Year factor. Indus Motor
and Honda Car sales were down 16% and 11%, respectively while PSMC sales remained flat at 5,970
units.
???? 8M (Jul-Feb) FY10 numbers show a jump of 29%YoY and 42%YoY in auto and car sales, respectively.
The growth is primarily driven by a 79% growth in Indus Motor. The company sales jumped during the
period mainly owing to a low base effect carried over from last year (phase out of the previous Corolla
model) and a strong performance of Corolla. Moreover, PSMC also registered a 20%YoY growth
during the period.

          (http://i869.photobucket.com/albums/ab251/Toshiali/autosales.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Toshi on March 11, 2010, 12:17:48 PM
Auto sales decline 7% MoM; up 29% YoY in 8mo FY10
Pakistan Auto Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has recently released auto production and sales numbers for Feb10:

    * In 8mo FY10, auto industry sold 86,016 units, which is 29% YoY higher than the comparable period last year. In Feb10 alone, car sales increased by 90% YoY to 11,797 units. However, on a MoM, auto sales declined by 7% MoM, with 11,797 units leaving the shelf in Feb10 as against 12,704 units in Jan10.
       

    * During the period, INDU continues to lead the growth with 52% YoY as the company managed to sell 30,020 units in 8mo FY10 compared to 19,761 units in the same period last year. The company operated at 85% capacity utilization during the period under review. 

    * PSMC showed a staggering growth of 246% YoY in Feb10 over the same month of last fiscal year. The growth is largely attributed to i) lower base in Feb09 and ii) the introduction of Suzuki Swift which managed a total sales volume of 505 units during the month of February. 

    * We are in the process of updating our valuation of the sector, and shall come up with an investment case shortly.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Toshi on March 11, 2010, 06:18:27 PM
29% YoY sales growth in 8MFY10; MoM numbers reflecting an expected
decline
8MFY10 automobile sales have witnessed a 29% YoY increase to 85,300 units from
66,038 units in the same period last year. This increase has come despite poor law and
order situation and limited financing facilities in the country. INDU posted the largest
increase (52%) in its unit sales followed by HCAR (24%) and PSMC (20%). Growth
number trajectory was partly aided by a low base effect due to last year’s depressed
sales.
However, sales have shown a decline of 7% on a MoM basis in Feb10 to 11,703 units
sold compared to 12,574 units sold last month. Firstly, it can be termed a normal
phenomenon as sales in January are usually high and secondly, INDU and PSMC both
increased their product prices during this period which led to a decline in the number of
cars demanded. PSMC’s sales in Feb10 remained flat at Jan10’s level while INDU and
HCAR sold 16% and 11% fewer cars than last month.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Mr.TOOL on March 11, 2010, 08:00:00 PM
(http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/5241/autt.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Mr.TOOL on March 11, 2010, 08:00:59 PM
(http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/184/autov.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Karuli on March 12, 2010, 07:39:23 PM
Except for decline in sales of light commercial vehicles, vans and jeeps, the sales of two and three wheelers, tractors, buses and trucks have shown positive growth in July-February 2009-10 as compared to same period of last fiscal year.
A total of 45,523 units of tractors (Fiat and Massey Ferguson) were sold in the last eight months of current financial year as compared to 34,841 units in the corresponding period of last fiscal.

Sale of Massey Ferguson tractors rose sharply to 26,078 units in July-February 2009-10 from 16,986 units in the same period of last fiscal while Fiat tractor sales increased to 19,445 from 17,855 units.

Sohail Bashir Rana, Senior Executive Officer of Millat Tractors Limited, talking to Dawn from Lahore attributed the increase in tractor sales to fetching of good support price by farmers followed by improved buying of tractors on cash.

He said that delivery of 10,000 units under Benazir Tractor Scheme (BTS) had already completed while the Punjab government was coming up with its own scheme next week to provide 10,000 tractors to farmers. He added production of tractors was also going good and were easily available.

Figures released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) showed increase in two- and three-wheeler sales to 468,856 units during the period under review as compared to 321,142 units.

Because of good crops of wheat, cotton, rice etc., the growers were encouraged to buy two wheelers. However, jeep sales plunged to 666 units from 731 while pick-ups to 10,078 from 11,429 units.

Overall sales of trucks surged to 2,312 in July-February 2009-10 from 1,928 in the same period of last fiscal, while sale of buses went up to 407 from 383 units.

During February 2010, the total market for commercial trucks and buses grew by 54 per cent to 462 units from 300 units in February 2009 due to increased demand created by the commercial transport activity.

The overall truck market showed a growth of 50 per cent from 265 units in February 2009 to 398 units sold in February 2010. The overall bus market also grew by 83 per cent from 35 units sold in February 2009 to 64 buses sold in February 2010.

Director Sales and Marketing Hinopak Motors Limited Muhamamd Irfan Shaikh said that in February 2010, the company sold 189 units of trucks as compared to 163 units in February 2009, up by 16 per cent. However, compared to January 2010 (253 units), sale of trucks decreased by 25 per cent (189 units) in February 2010.

The analysis showed that the sales in February 2010 fell due to instability in law and order situation during the month of November and December 2009 and also banks were not releasing money, the customers were reluctant in investing in the market during these months, which brought the sales forward in the month of January 2010
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Mr.TOOL on March 12, 2010, 09:45:09 PM
(http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/9820/autos.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 21, 2010, 12:09:07 PM
Prices of locally-assembled cars continue to rise
 
Sunday, March 21, 2010
By Hina Mahgul Rind

KARACHI: At the beginning of every year the local auto assemblers tend to increase the car prices on pretext of rupee depreciation against yen and dollar, rise in steel prices and Complete Knock Down (CKD) and various other reason.

The year 2010 dawned with the popular Pak Suzuki revising its prices up by Rs10,000 to Rs25,000 on its various models in January. Indus Motor Company increased its prices by two per cent or Rs20,000 on the popular 1300cc XLi and Rs30,000 for the GLi in February 2010. Honda kept with the trend and upped the price tags by Rs20,000 to Rs35,000 on its various models.

Atif Zafar Auto Analyst at JS Research says that the rising prices of raw materials, utilities, and other inputs along with the weakening rupee has forced the auto assemblers to pass on the cost pressure to consumers.

He said that the price increase of local assemblers would not have much affect on the auto sales because Toyota and Honda cars are usually for people who can bear the price. However the increase in the prices of 800cc and 1000cc cars affects the middle-income groups.

The price rise follows demand for opening imports of used cars. All Pakistan Motors Dealers Association president H M Shahzad says that the price increase by local auto manufacturers is unjustified.

Lac of competition has given the local assemblers a free hand in the local automobile market, Shazad said adding, “people don’t have much choice.”

He further added that government should allow import of used cars, relax duty structure, allow two per cent depreciation, and used car import policy should be the same which was in the year 2006-2007. Taking these steps would give consumers more choice to select ave various range to choose from and it will break up the local assemblers monopoly.

While local assemblers’ stance is different on the issue and they justify the price increase and said that there is a misconception that the local auto industry is continuously and unjustifiably increasing prices.

This is unfortunate and far from reality. From October 2009 till date Pakistan rupee has depreciated over five per cent against yen and in addition, there have been increases in wages and utility prices. All these factors have forced the local OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) to marginally increase car prices while absorbing most of the costs, which has squeezed their margins and reduced profitability.
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 28, 2010, 12:20:27 PM
Auto financing picks up, but banks remain cautious  
 
Sunday, March 28, 2010
By Hina Mahgul Rind

KARACHI: After a two-year gap, banks have started reviewing their policy on auto finance and have slightly increased auto financing with stringent conditions, said Atif Zafar, auto analyst at JS Research.

Car sales were improving and one of the reasons was that auto finance along with restoring economic confidence had reduced interest rates and seasonal effects, he added.

Auto finance was at its peak during 2006-2007 and its share in car sales was 70 per cent to 75per cent, however in the later years it was almost stooped due to higher interest rates, and most importantly, auto finance default rate was very high and recovery rate was very low which forced banks to do critical review of their auto finance product, he said.

After this some of the banks completely stopped auto financing and some opted very stringent policy, entertaining their reliable customers only. At present its share in the sales is 30 per cent.

The current market scenario of consumer car financing shows that only few of the banks are doing car financing and some of the key players are Meezan Bank, Dubai Islamic, Faysal Bank, MCB Bank, HBL and Bank Alfalah. On the other hand, Citibank, UBL Ameen and Standard Chartered Bank and leasing companies had completely stopped this product, said a market source.

At present, interest rates at which banks are extending auto finance ranges between 17 and 22per cent. Initially, minimum equity was 30 per cent but banks have reduced it to 20 per cent to attract more customers.

A market player said that though auto finance was slowly reviving and car sales were improving, there were other factors which would continue to be a hurdle such as mark-up rates which were still high despite the fact that discount rate had reduced by 250 basis points during the last one year. Another reason is the continued price increase of automobiles and increasing non-performing loans (NPLS).

The consumer finance market will remain stagnant unless and until the interest rate is not reduced. A banker said that to minimise the risk of defaulters banks had adopted a more cautious stance and they had restricted the idea of “NO DOCs (no documents).” Initially, when auto finance started it was easy to avail of auto finance product by providing the least number of documents. The “No Docs” policy costs banks heavily.

But at present complete evaluation and proper assessment of customers’ ability to repay is considered before a loan is sanctioned. It is mandatory to provide bank statements, pay slips, CNIC, references and the most important is the Credit Information Bureau Report which consists of the borrowers all previous loans’ details and capacity to repay.

Not only are banks cautious, insurance companies have also made it mandatory for customers to avail of car tracking system at the time of auto financing from banks to curtail their theft losses.

According to the data released by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), local car sales grew by 42 per cent in eight months FY10 at 68,307 units against 47,982 units in same period of last year. Volumetric sales of all assemblers are recovering from a pit of last year and continues to post double-digit growth.
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on April 11, 2010, 11:24:31 AM
Car sales rise by 41% in 9M FY10

By Moonis Ahmed

KARACHI: Despite high car prices the consumers’ passion to buy cars remained positive as the total car sales increased by 41 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2009-10, latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) said on Saturday.

According to the numbers released by PAMA, the car sales recorded appreciating numbers for 9M FY10 as they stood at 86,483 units showing an increase of 41 percent on yearly basis. The number of units produced during the period stood at 86,613 as against 63,273 recorded during the same period of the last fiscal year, witnessing an increase of 36 percent.

In 1300cc and above cars category, Toyota Corolla contributed most in the overall car sales as it recorded a substantial increase of 73 percent in sales to stand at 29,964 units during the said period. Honda City and Suzuki Liana remained second and third with 5,745 and 770 units, respectively.

In 1000cc cars, Suzuki Alto with highest 7,638 units stood up showing an increase of 53 percent in sales. Suzuki Cultus remained second with a surge of 20 percent in sales. However, in below 1000 and 800cc cars, Suzuki Mehran with 16,228 units showed an increase of 59 percent in sales.

Except, LCVs, vans and jeeps almost all segments of autos including passenger cars, trucks, buses, tractors and even motorcycles and three wheelers showed positive trends.

An analyst was of the view that some of the reasons for improved local car sales are higher taxes on imported cars and economic stability. The situation appears even more stable on yearly basis with strong improvements in the sector.

However, on monthly basis, the car sales’ performance was not up to expectations as it witnessed a bit of increase of just 8 percent. In March 2010 car sales stood at 11,208 units as compared to 10,310 units in February 2010.

Furthermore the increase in car prices by the assemblers during the month under review had made an impact on sales. Some of the leading carmakers had raised prices during the month citing appreciation of foreign currencies especially Japanese yen against the rupee and steel price hike.

Analysts said that almost after a two-year gap, banks have started reviewing their policy on auto finance and have slightly increased auto financing with stringent conditions.

Car sales were showing improvement and a reason was that auto finance along with restoring economic confidence had reduced interest rates and seasonal effects, he added.

Auto finance was at its peak during 2006-07 and its share in car sales was 70 to 75 percent, however in the later years it almost stopped due to higher interest rates, and most importantly, auto finance default rate was very high and recovery rate was very low, which forced banks to do critical review of their auto finance product, he said.

After this some of the banks completely stopped auto financing and some opted very stringent policy, entertaining their reliable customers only.

“The industry may witness consistent growth of 4-5 percent by the end of the current fiscal year,” said JS Research analyst Atif Zafar. “The banks have again reviewed their auto financing policy and are most likely to focus on increasing their financing.”

He said that as compared to last year, banks are now lowering their interest rate on financing and the car financing percentage has gone up to 30-35 now. Pak Suzuki has also made an agreement with a bank for the auto financing and is likely to increase its sales in the coming months.

Source:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\04\11\story_11-4-2010_pg5_6
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on April 22, 2010, 10:06:28 AM
Last 2 years Increase in car prices highest ever in history

By Moonis Ahmed

KARACHI: The local car manufacturers are exceeding the limits of increasing their car prices in parity with the local rising inflation to earn hefty profits, Daily Times learnt on Tuesday.

While compiling the data of nearly two years (January 2008 to March 2010) this scribe found out that the local car manufacturing companies have raised the prices of their products almost 10-15 times. During the said period the three leading automakers including Honda, Suzuki and Indus Motors have raised the prices by 15 times up to 68 percent.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited has raised the prices 15 times on all of its models in the said period, as the company in 2008 had raised the prices 6 times, in 2009 it again raised the prices 6 times and till March 2010 the company raised the prices 3 times. Another leading auto manufacturer, Honda Atlas Motors Company Limited also raised the prices by 10 times in the said period up to 66 percent. The company had raised its prices 4 times in 2008, 5 times in 2009 and till March 2010 raised the prices once. Similarly, Toyota Indus Motors Company Limited, another market leader had taken its prices up by 13 times up to 60 percent during January 2008 to March 2010. It increased the prices 7 times in 2008, in 2009 the company increased the prices by 4 times and till March 2010 it raised the prices by twice.

On the contrary the car sales remained depressed in 2008 and significantly low in 2009, as sales fell by 28 percent to 107,704 units during CY 2009, which is said to be the worst performance during the last 10 years.

Topline Securities analyst Furqan Punjani said, “Inflation went up by 33 percent from the index of 163 in March 2008 to 217 in February 2010 and a 26 percent devaluation of the rupee against the dollar and 39 percent devaluation against yen.” In January 2008 the dollar was quoted at Rs 61.98 and the yen was at 55 paisas and now the dollar is being traded at Rs 84.00 and the yen is at 91 paisas. He said that the two years were very difficult for the auto industry amid global financial crisis coupled with severe pressure on the cost side.

“The soaring prices have badly affected the common man’s buying power, thereby affecting all segments of the industry,” he observed.

He said that the sales’ performance was affected due to slowdown in car financing, as banks were reluctant to issue fresh loans amid risk aversion and chances of higher non-performing loans due to the economic slowdown.

Besides this, higher mark-up rates, contraction in disposable income due to higher inflation and heightened security concerns restricted consumers to buy new cars. Interestingly, despite reduction in federal excise duty, car prices remained almost flat in 2009. This was primarily due to consistent cost pressures amid rupee devaluation, rebound in steal prices and increase in sales tax. In other regional countries like India and China the prices are comparatively 3 to 4 times lower than Pakistan.

All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association Chairman H M Shahzad urged the government to check whether these increases by the assemblers were really justified with the actual impact of the falling rupee, rising metal and steel sheet prices and petrochemical items.

Besides, these high prices on cars hefty amount of own money is also being charged from the customers, he said and added that on all models of Suzuki own money was ranging between Rs 40,000 to Rs 200,000. On IMC cars own money was between Rs 30,000 to Rs 60,000 and on Honda cars Rs 30,000 to Rs 80,000.

Shehzad said that semi-knocked down and completely knocked down kit prices all over the world had fallen. He was of the view that there had not been any check and balance over the price hike of the local manufacturers by the government. He urged the government to reduce the taxes on imported vehicles. “Importers are paying 360 percent overall duties as compared to 120 percent in 2007-08.”

He said that the automakers were taking full advantage of the customers as such high duty on import left the customers with no any other option than to buy locally manufactured cars during the last two years.

Source:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\04\22\story_22-4-2010_pg5_19
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on May 03, 2010, 10:50:38 AM
KARACHI: Car-makers have unveiled an optimistic production plan to their vendors for April to August in view of on-going booming demand and orders in advance from buyers.

An extraordinary interest is being shown by buyers who are really not worried over surging prices, and many are even paying premium on spot buying.

A leading car vendor said that the Indus Motor Company (IMC) plans to manufacture 4,315 units of Toyota Corolla in April followed by 4,590 units in May and 4,700 units in June.

The company also aims to manufacture 4,460 units in July and 4,280 units in August. Corolla XLI and GLi hold a major share in overall production of various Corolla models.

However, the 2010-2011 budget in June may result in a change in auto production plan from July onwards depending on the budgetary decisions.

The vendor said that the IMC also plans to roll out 406 units of Daihatsu Cuore in April, 560 units in May, 490 units in June, 440 units in July and 440 units in August.

Production of Toyota Hilux in April is planned at 200 units followed by 170 units each in May and June and 200 units each in July and August.

Senior General Manager Pak-Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) Ashfaq Hussain said the company had produced around 18,500 units of all models in January-March this year and “it plans to cross 20,000 units in April-June to cater to the huge demand.”He said vendors have been asked to maintain supply of parts and accessories.

He linked rising sales and production of cars to rising demand from growers after a good crop of wheat, cotton, rice etc.

Increase in home remittances in July-March 2009-2010, resumption of car financing by some banks and slight improvement in law and order situation have also boosted consumer confidence.

Car sales soared by 41.3 per cent in July-March 2009-2010 to 86,483 units as compared to 61,185 units in the same period of last fiscal year.

Trucks production and sales surged to 2,521 and 2,652 units in July-March 2009-2010 as compared to 2,169 and 2,175 units in the same period of last fiscal year.

Bus production and sales improved to 474 and 504 units from 408 and 451 units.

Director Sales and Marketing Hinopak Motors Limited (HML) Mohammad Irfan Shaikh said overall truck and bus sales and production is likely to improve by 10-15 per cent in April-June as compared to January-March 2010.

The economic situation in the country has retracted demand nearly from all sectors of economy and automobile sector in this respect is no different.

The bus and truck segment has specifically retracted by a considerable margin. This is evident from the fact that market demand from April 2009 to March 2010 decreased by 14 per cent compared to last year from 5,070 units to 4,351 units. However, HML sales have approximately stayed the same.

As a result, the market share of HML has grown from 51 last year to 59 per cent in 2010.

Irfan said demand in 2010 improved to a certain extent in the quarter January-March 2010, and the truck and bus segment grew an appreciable 45 per cent from 941 units to 1,369 units over the past year’s sales during the same period.

This increase is owing to improvement in economy which went into turmoil last year and is now showing signs of recovery.

The truck market grew by 47 per cent and bus market by 36 per cent over last year’s sales for the same period, reflecting demand from government authorities for bus units to run transport projects in the city.

Source:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/demand-up-despite-surging-prices-carmakers-unveil-production-plan-540
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on May 18, 2010, 10:55:22 AM
Auto industry wants stable policies

By Moonis Ahmed

KARACHI: The domestic auto industry needs government stable and consistent policies coupled with low duty on the high-tech parts that cannot be localised due to non-availability of technology and current low volume to achieve economies of scale, industry, officials said.

They said there is a dire need for a stable policy to allow the industry to plan effectively for future models and expansions and the ban on import of used vehicles to remain intact. A free hand in allowing the import of used cars would cause an immense damage to the local industry and would result in the drain of valuable foreign exchange and dumping of junk cars in the country, said Raza Ansari, Director Sales IMC, while talking to Daily Times.

He said this fallout would also aggravate the local scenario of economic uncertainty and the local OEMs would suffer huge losses on their investment in plants and infrastructures for automobile manufacturing. This would also result in layoffs on a massive scale, not only for the in-house work force at the automotive plants, but also for the large number of vendors, to whom certain automotive parts are outsourced for manufacturing.

Raza was of the view that the government should prepare long-term consistent policies to encourage other manufacturers to invest in the country. New cars are currently freely importable in Pakistan. Duties on cars with higher engine capacities (above 1800 cc) should be rationalised so that consumers have a choice to import these vehicles. It is worth mentioning that AIDP vision was around 500,000 units by the year 2012, however, realistically projecting the future market based on current volumes of 2008/09, the market size would be around 300,000 units. In order to achieve the same, consistent stable policies are required, which will impact positively on investment and enabling growth.

Talking about the recovery in local sales he said the sharp rebound in demand is mainly attributable to the combined effect of healthy agricultural income in the farming community and marginal increase in auto financing coming on top of the low volume base in the comparable period, which suffered from the dampened demand due to extraordinary difficult economic conditions in the country and the absence of Corolla which was only partially present due to running out of the old model last year. Though the volume growth has come as a welcome relief to the industry that had experienced two difficult years of consecutive market downturn, the operating environment for the automakers and parts suppliers alike remained volatile.

Inflationary pressures on account of rise in input costs and continued depreciation of the rupee severely eroded their profitability, while the disruption in part supplies caused by power outages posed a huge challenge in maintaining regular supplies and ramp up of the production to meet the rising customer demand.

Source:
chal rehn de ! (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\05\18\story_18-5-2010_pg5_7)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 20, 2010, 01:53:56 PM
Tractor Industry: Monthly Update

Latest statistics revealed by Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association (PAMA) show a 42%YoY growth in production of tractors in 10MFY10. This resulted in a growth of 40%YoY in the local tractor off-take. We give credit for this growth to GoP's pro-agri schemes for farm mechanization which propelled the tractor volumes by ~20k tractors for the period under review. MTL continued to lead the local tractors market with its Massey Ferguson (MF) tractors capturing 57% market share. AGTL follows with its FIAT tractors capturing the remaining 43% market of local tractor manufacturers. Going forward, key factors to watch out include increasing steel prices, PkR/USD exchange rate and the possible introduction of VAT on tractors. We are in the process of initiating coverage on both MTL and AGTL and will update investors shortly.       
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on May 31, 2010, 09:48:00 AM
Budget proposals: APMDA seeks fixed duty on above 1800cc cars

ZAHEER ABBASI
ISLAMABAD (May 30 2010): All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA) on Saturday asked the government to impose fixed duty rate on the import of vehicles above 1800cc, sources told Business Recorder. They said that APMDA in its budget proposals for the next fiscal year, 2010-11, suggested to the government that fixed duty rate on the import of vehicles above 1800cc would help prevent revenue loss and would also eliminate the variation of taxes in various parts of the country.

They also proposed that the government should allow commercial import of used vehicles, in addition to existing import schemes of used vehicles under Transfer of Residence Scheme, (Gift and Baggage Schemes). It would bring the import of used vehicle business into the tax net and would help expand tax base. The APDMA said only its certified members should be allowed to import the used vehicles on commercial basis to ensure transparency. They said the import of used vehicles allowed in 2005-06 was restricted to import of used vehicles only up to three years of age under different schemes. The restriction on import of car to a certain age led to a monopoly of local assemblers on the prices.

The existing import schemes of used vehicles are primarily to facilitate the overseas Pakistani. Thus it is recommended that there should be no restriction of age limit on import of vehicles under Transfer of Residence scheme, they added.

They claimed that local assemblers have been charging exorbitant rate in the shape of 100 percent advance payment at the time of booking and the delivery of car takes three months to six months. The delay in delivery was providing opportunity to the black marketers to charge hefty amount as premium, they added.

They said the suggestions would lessen the problems the vehicle buyer is facing due to sharp increase in the price of vehicles over last few years. The APDMA has floated these proposals for being important stakeholder in Pakistan''s auto industry, they added.

Source:
Ting Tong (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1062698&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 01, 2010, 07:41:48 PM
Import of used cars may be allowed

KARACHI: The government is considering allowing commercial import of used cars and the matter is expected to be put up before the Economic Coordination Committee and the cabinet in the next meeting, official sources disclosed on Monday.

Sources said the decision to allow import of used cars is being taken to check ever-rising prices of locally assembled cars, particularly when they are managed by controlling supply against demand.

For long the Ministry of Industries and Production (MOI&P) and Engineering Development Board (EDB) had been advising the car assemblers/manufacturers to protect interests of consumers by avoiding frequent rise in sale price of cars.

However, sources close to the ministry told Dawn from Islamabad that a summary is ready and would be put up before the ECC meeting expected to be held soon.

The government circles believe that enough time had been given to local manufacturers of cars to safeguard the interests of consumers but this did not work.

The sources said that it has been pointed out in the summary that supply is being managed by car manufacturers against demand and premium is being charged over and above the entire price of cars and taxes are being collected from buyers much before delivery.

Consequently, the government is seriously considering allowing commercial import of cars so that consumers’ interest is safeguarded and local manufacturers are also tamed, official sources added.

Within the government circles, the Ministry of Industries and Production had been facing a lot of criticism for not protecting consumers’ interests and that it had been not playing it's due role as a regulatory body.

On the contrary, the MOI&P had only been giving concessions to the industry and had also failed to implement Auto Industry Development Programme (AIDP), they added.

There is growing realisation amongst government decision makers in general and the MOI&P that local manufacturers have ganged up to increase car prices of all makes and models, official sources maintained.

Source:
:rtfm: (http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/demand-up-despite-surging-prices-carmakers-unveil-production-plan-540)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 02, 2010, 01:51:23 PM
Government relaxing rules for import of used cars

MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN
ISLAMABAD (June 01 2010): The federal government is relaxing rules for import of used cars, as talks between the Minister for Industries and Production Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani and local cars manufacturers did not yield desired results, sources close to Secretary Industries told Business Recorder. "A comprehensive proposal is ready to allow import of five-year used cars instead of three years," the sources added.

Almost a year ago, Ministry of Industries was directed by the ECC to take measures to bring down car prices in line with neighbouring countries, but the Ministry failed to implement the decision despite a number of meetings with the manufacturers.

Former Minister for Industries, Mian Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo had held two meetings with the car manufacturers to convince them to reduce prices, however, car manufacturers did not respond positively. Like his predecessor, incumbent Minister for Industries, Mir Hazar Khan Bajarani, also held two meetings with the manufactures but the result of these meetings was not different from the meetings held by Mian Manzoor Wattoo.

According to sources, car manufacturers are of the view that they cannot decrease price per unit until the government provides relaxation in taxes. According to sources, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani while chairing a meeting of the ECC in April had also directed the Industries Minister to take measures to bring down car prices or propose measures to import used cars.

Minister for Industries on May 3, 2010 revealed that he would hold a meeting with the car manufacturers at the end of the first week of May and thereafter, a summary would be submitted to the ECC. The ECC, however, took serious note of delay in settling the issue. The ECC directed the Industries Ministry to ensure submission of requisite summary to the ECC, in its forthcoming meeting.

On May 11, 2010, Bijarani held a second meeting with the car manufactures in which car manufacturers apprised the Minister about the various socio-economic problems confronted by the auto industry.

Industry is of the view that the most serious and severe among the problems it faces are rupee depreciation, non-availability of bank financing and latest technology for manufacturing high-tech parts of cars at domestic level, law and order situation of the country and on going electricity shortage.

According to PAMA, auto industry has financially suffered a lot due to these problems and has requested the Minister for urgent help and support for its survival, otherwise, hundreds might lose jobs with the closure of Auto Companies.

However, the car manufacturers assured the government that if duties/tariff on import of auto parts is reduced they would definitely pass on this relief to consumers. The sources said Industries Ministry has prepared the summary for the ECC but hinted that rules for import scheme can be relaxed in the federal budget.

Source:
 :rtfm: (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1063433)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 03, 2010, 02:20:11 PM
Govt may give carmakers tax incentives to cut prices

Industries Ministry proposes up to 20pc cut in duty on CKD kits

Thursday, June 03, 2010
By Israr Khan

ISLAMABAD: The government is likely to slash import duties duty by 20 per cent on automobile assembling components in the Budget 2010/11, a senior official in Ministry of Industries and Production (MoIP) told The News.

The MoIP in a summary to the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has proposed 10 to 20 per cent reduction on import duty for completely knocked down (CKD) kits and five to 10 per cent duty cut on completely build-up units (CBU) in the budget, the official said requesting anonymity.

Market experts say that if the import duty on CKD kits - the components that are assembled to make a car - is reduced from existing 32.5 per cent to 20 per cent the price impact would be about Rs30,000 on the finished product.

The Federal Minister for Industries & Production Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani had earlier hinted at possibility of reducing car prices.

“We would try to take measures in budget that would help reduce car prices. There are possibilities of taking tax measures or relaxing conditions on import of used cars,” Bijarani had told The News last week.

The MoIP official said that the government has now rejected commercial import of used cars and was considering the possibility of reducing import duty on components used by auto assemblers.

Assemblers import about 30 per cent parts including engine, transmission, and alternative self-starter, the remaining 70 percent components of the cars were locally produced, the official said.

Manufacturers attribute the rising cost of automobiles to depreciation in the value of rupee against dollar and yen that is pushing up the cost of imported components and the price of cars, he said.

A cut in import duty on assembly line components would facilitate reduction in prices of the vehicles, he said.

A representative of the car manufacturing industry opined that if the government allows import of used cars, they might start refurbishing and sale in the market. However, opening up of used cars’ import would badly hurt the sales auto-parts vendors and original equipment manufacturers catering to the automobile assembling lines, he said.

The major car assemblers of the country - Honda, Pak Suzuki and Indus Motors in the last few months had increased prices twice on plea that the Pakistani rupee had depreciated against dollar and yen.

Increase in rates has cut down car sales, said an automobiles dealer. High car prices, huge premium and late delivery were the main reason for downtrend in car sales.

He said that cut in import duties for assemblers would improve their margins of profit, “it would be up to the manufacturers to pass on the benefit to the buyers.”

Market experts say that government should enforce the Auto Industrial Development Policy (AIDP) - a protective tariff policy for safeguarding investments against auto-assemblers commitment for indigenisation of imported parts from 2007-12.

The policy envisages that by 2012 the car manufacturers would increase their production to 0.5 million, but they are still far behind the target. Currently, the combined out put of all vehicle manufacturers is around 0.13 million a year. The absence of economy of scales was also one of the reasons for rising prices of cars, experts said. If a car manufacturer increases its production from 40,000 cars to 60,000 cars their overhead production cost per car declines approximately to the tune of Rs20,000.

Source:
:rtfm: (http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=242831)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 04, 2010, 10:16:50 AM
Localisation or penalisation?

IQBAL MIRZA
KARACHI (June 04 2010): The auto industry which has invested more than Rs 3.8 billion in its operations in Pakistan during 2008-09 would be crippled in case import of used cars is allowed by the government. Besides having direct impact on industry, it would also harm hundreds of parts vendors and thousands of sub-vendors who have invested more than Rs 100 billion in trade.

In a sharp reaction to reports that the issue of commercial imports of used cars would soon be put before the Economic Co-ordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association (PAMA) said that adverse effects of such a policy will not only hurt the consumer but will seep down the entire value chain supplying to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).

As the relevant authorities have reportedly failed in their efforts to persuade the auto manufacturers to cut prices, deemed to be on an unfairly high side in the eyes of the government, the industry now appears to be ripe for penalisation. Simple as this may seem to the common man, one expects the well-versed and well-informed authorities to look a little beneath the surface and identify the factors contributing to the recent increase in car prices, PAMA said.

Since June 2008, Pakistani rupee has depreciated by an overall 42 percent against the yen and 25 percent against USD. Further, increase in gas price (13 percent), electricity price (34 percent), and international steel price (77 percent); other basic metal prices (over 80 percent) and increase in overhead cost per unit, have further aggravated the situation. All these factors have forced the OEMs to marginally increase car prices (by about 4 percent) in the recent past, while absorbing most of the costs themselves. It can very well be understood that with constant increase in input costs it is becoming increasingly difficult for OEMs to maintain car unit prices at the desired level.

Without due attention to the practical implications of their policies, the authorities, on the one hand, are bent on relaxing policies regarding import of used cars and on the other are showing a scrupulous concern for development of the local industry by forcing it to enhance the localisation process under the Auto Industry Development Plan (AIDP) through levy of additional 17.5 percent duty on high-tech parts (already under 32.5 percent customs duty. Such contradictory approaches clearly hint at a lack of clarity at the highest policy-making level.

There are indications that the government intends to relax its policy on import of used cars. For all practical purposes, rather than benefiting the people, such a move will only be an invitation to importers of used cars to dump junk automobiles into the local market, creating unhealthy and unfair competition for local manufacturers.

Moreover, levy of additional duty on high-tech parts for which local alternatives of required quality are not available, will further increase the input costs of the manufacturers. This approach will serve to further repress the already suffering local auto industry by reducing its market share while increasing their input costs, forcing them to increase prices to sustain, their business.

Local manufacturers are under constant pressure to import the technology to manufacture these high tech parts. This unfortunately makes no business sense given the low volumes of different makes or vehicles, which does not justify heavy investment. The OEMs would certainly welcome localisation as it will cut their costs, but given the economies of scale required to justify the cost of transfer of such technology, they have no option hut to import these parts.

The domestic auto industry is the driving engine of the LSM sector as it contributes billions of rupees to the GDP. Over the years, the industry has taken several key initiatives to support transfer of technology to Pakistan. With the help of local OEMs, parts manufacturers/vendors now have joint ventures (JVs) and technical assistance agreements (TAAs) with major component manufacturers around the world. There has also been a healthy increase in indigenization levels since July 2006 after implementation of Tariff Based System (TBS) by local OEMs, with all localisation decisions being based on cost, merit and feasibility.

Time and again, local manufactures have requested the policy-makers to formulate balanced policies which would help develop the local industry in a reasonably protected environment while offering it room for healthy competition. The auto manufacturers have been urging the government to address their problems by offering them due support so that they can bring their operations to a level that would warrant transfer of better technology and would result in shifting the paradigm for the whole industry. Whether the policy-makers will act proactively in the best interests of the auto industry - and the national economy is a question that still begs for an answer, PAMA said.

Source:
 :bangin: (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1064451)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 06, 2010, 12:07:25 PM

KARACHI: The automobile sector has been left mostly untouched in the federal budget announced on Saturday.


The only major change is the government waiving the 15 per cent customs duty on the import of LPG buses to encourage use of cheaper environment friendly fuel, said Abdul Azim, automobile analyst, Invest Capital Investment Bank.

Local importers wanted the age-limit of imported cars to be relaxed, but it was not mentioned in the budget announcement. They want to be able to import cars that are five years old. They are currently only allowed to import cars that are a maximum of three years old.

“Priority was given to car manufacturers as they contribute highly to the Large Scale Manufacturing sector,” said Azim.

LSM growth has been a major contributor to the overall gross domestic product growth of 4.1 per cent in current fiscal year of 2010.

“The manufacturers have the right to be favoured as they bring foreign investment and employ large number of people,” said General Manager, Honda Drive-in, Hussain Abbas.

“Car manufacturers have a major share in the automobile industry and importers are only a minor portion of the automobile sector,” said Abbas.

Increasing the age-limit was a genuine demand, which was made in the best interest of the consumers, said Sarfaraz Hussain Dhanji, owner of Aristocars, a local car importing dealership. Imports bring valuable foreign exchange through duties and help stabilise the balance of payments of the country, he informed.

He added that the implementation of the demand would have broken the monopoly of the local manufacturers and given consumers the choice of buying cars at lower rates.

Cars here are more expensive in Pakistan than other countries and consumers are charged a lot more for the same car available at cheaper rates in other countries, he added. There is also misconceptions as car manufacturers only assemble cars here and they do not manufacture them, he further said.

Car manufacturers pay 20-25 per cent duty on completely knocked down (CKD) kits for parts like engine and gear while we have to pay 200 per cent duty for the car, this is unjust, he said, adding that manufacturers dictated the policy keeping themselves and not the consumers in mind.

Published in the Express Tribune, June 6th, 2010.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: 007 on June 06, 2010, 06:03:03 PM
comment on sazew
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 06, 2010, 09:03:15 PM
comment on sazew

Illiquid stock .. I'd stay away ..

currently four stocks under my watch-list
'INDU' 'MTL' 'AGTL' 'GHNI'

what can I say .. Auto-Guru [hehe]
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: 007 on June 06, 2010, 09:45:29 PM
i just thought eps was very good compared to price :dunno:

wht are your buying trgt for INDU
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on June 06, 2010, 11:14:33 PM
i just thought eps was very good compared to price :dunno:

wht are your buying trgt for INDU

Frankly speaking - I'm longing for a free fall of the index and other stocks next week.
If it happens, I'll catch the falling knife and buy around 240.
If market remains flat then i'll wait for the may 2010 sales numbers then decide accordingly.

as far as 'SAZEW' is concerned - mainey to toba ki hui hey illiquid stocks sey phir chahey wo kitna hi attractive kio na ho, telecom sector mey 'PAKD' ko hi dekhlo - pretty much undervalued but koi faida nahin and generally speaking EPS is just a factor, it's not the only factor.

goodluck.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on June 10, 2010, 09:00:29 AM
11M auto sales pick up 38.6pc
 

May Honda sales up 41pc, Indus falls 5pc
Aqeel Abdul Razzak
KARACHI: Auto sales showed a phenomenal improvement in sales as cumulative car, LCV & pickup sales up by 38.6 per cent to 124,991 units during 11MFY10, according to the latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).
On the other hand, cumulative production of car, LCV and pickups up by 34 per cent to 124,833 units against 93,245 units in 11MFY09. Reasons of surge in sales and production are strong recovery in economy mainly due to growth in services and agriculture sector and rising remittances, as per the TFD analyst.
Enumerating the categories, car sales showed an exceptional growth of 45.6 per cent YoY to 109.6k units, whereas LCV & pickup segment sales registered a minimal increase of 2.94 per cent YoY to 15.3k units.On MoM basis, car segment sales increased by 4.3 per cent in May to 11.8k units.
Honda Atlas Company showed strong reversal as its sales increased by 41 per cent to 1.5k units against 1k units in April 10, while Indus Motors -- overall top performer during the 11MFY10 -- sales dropped by 5 per cent to 4.96k units in May 10.
 As expected, mostly brand of cars performed well before budget as 7 brands out of 11 managed positive growth namely Civic (+59 per cent), City (+28 per cent), Liana  (+22 per cent), Swift (+8 per cent), Cultus (+13 per cent), Alto (+1 per cent)  and Cuore (+89 per cent) in the month of May. Similarly, car production surge by 4.6 per cent MoM to 11.6k units. Overall, auto sales increased by 2.4 per cent MoM to 13.3k units in May-10.
Pak Suzuki, Indus Motor and Honda cars were the three companies that showed positive growth in their volumetric sales by 40.07 per cent, 48.8 per cent and 20.5 per cent, respectively. On the other hand, Dewan Farooq Motors witnessed 44 per cent declines in their sales volumes.
Production and sales of Pak Suzuki (PSMC) grew by 35.22 and 40.07 per cent to 65,384 units and 65,300 units respectively. Indus Motors (INDU) sold and produced 45,030 units and 45,228 units respectively in the 11MFY10. Similarly, sales and production of Honda Car (HCAR) went up to 12,392 units and 12,060 units respectively. However, Dewan Farooq Motors (DFML) lost its way as it production and sales massively down by 52.76 per cent and 44.04 per cent to 1,018 units and 1,169 units respectively.
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 03, 2010, 12:09:00 PM
10pc FED imposed on car ACs

KARACHI, July 2: In a surprise move, the government has imposed a 10 per cent federal excise duty on car air-conditioners despite the fact that the budgetary decision on the duty was confined mainly to split air-conditioners and deep-freezers to contain high electricity consumption in view of power shortage.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company was the first to pass on two impacts on Friday — imposition of FED on car air-conditioners and one per cent hike in general sales tax from 16 to 17 per cent.

The company’s senior general manager (marketing) Ashfaq Hussain told Dawn that Mehran without A/C would now cost Rs479,000 after imposition of one per cent GST. Before the budget it was sold for Rs474,000.

The 10 per cent FED on A/C pushed the price of Mehran AC/CNG to Rs532,000 from Rs524,000.

The price of Alto AC/CNG has been increased to Rs684,000 from Rs674,000 and that of Cultus CNG/AC to Rs857,000 from Rs845,000.

The price of Liana AC\CNG has been raised to Rs118,4000 from Rs1169,000.

Mr Hussain said the company was delivering cars in two to four weeks. The production plant is shut down from June 28 to July 3 for annual maintenance.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company has also increased the price of GS-150 and GS-125 (motorcycles) to Rs84,500 and Rs78,500, respectively, from Rs83,900 and Rs77,900. Sprinter, Sprinter ECO, Shogun and Shogun (deleted) are now priced at Rs69,500, Rs66,500, Rs76,000 and Rs72,000, respectively, as compared to Rs68,000, Rs65,900, Rs75,400 and Rs71,400.

Other car manufacturers are likely to pass on the impact of increased GST and 10 per cent FED next week.

Meanwhile, director (sales and marketing) of Indus Motor Company Raza Ansari said the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association had requested the government to withdraw FED because it would increase the cost of production.

He said that although the government wanted to see car prices down, it had imposed FED without any reason. About one per cent increase in GST, Mr Ansari said the company had decided not to charge the tax on bookings made before July 1.

However, it is not clear if the increase in car prices after the two levies will hit sales.

The assemblers had previously raised car prices on account of the Japanese yen appreciation against the rupee, but it did not make any adverse impact on their sales.

The sale of locally-produced cars, including Suzuki Bolan, swelled to 109,637 units in July-May 2009-10 from 75,293 units in the same period last fiscal.

The assemblers said that sales by the end of the current fiscal year might increase to 120,000-125,000 units.

Source:
bloodsuckers (http://beta.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/10pc-fed-imposed-on-car-acs-370)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 09, 2010, 12:57:41 PM
Auto-makers oppose relaxing conditions for new entrants (http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=249693)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 13, 2010, 09:44:07 AM
Car sales jump by 50 per cent in 2009-10 (http://beta.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/car-sales-jump-by-50-per-cent-in-200910-370)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 13, 2010, 10:30:14 PM
Govt mulling to allow import of used cars (http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=108446)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 19, 2010, 11:47:35 AM
ECC to discuss import of used cars on July 20 (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1081851&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 20, 2010, 07:47:28 PM
ECC to discuss import of used cars on July 20 (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1081851&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)

pichle aik mahiney se deferred horaha hey .. lanat ho
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 25, 2010, 12:34:24 PM
CCP releases study on automobile, PSF sectors (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\07\25\story_25-7-2010_pg5_1)

Note:
another indication of likelihood that the trade policy 2010-11 will prove to be detrimental for car manufacturers.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 04, 2010, 09:08:50 AM
Costly cars brace for bumpy sales (http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=254574)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 04, 2010, 03:30:49 PM
Rupee hits all-time low against Japanese yen

Aggressive buying of Japanese yen by importers and corporate clients resulted in the rupee value to close down at an all-time low. Pakistani rupee equated in price to the Japanese yen on Wednesday. The rupee lost more than 30 paisa against the yen during the last two years.
The yen strengthened against all major currencies including the dollar across the globe. However the rupee lost value sharply as compared to other currencies. According to experts the changing value of yen will have substantial impact on the automobile industry of Pakistan.

Source:
yeah! (http://www.dunyanews.tv/main_category_eng.php?nid=15242&catid=5&flag=d)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mamu jee on August 04, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
ECC to discuss import of used cars on July 20 (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1081851&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Yar used car import ke information ke lea mujhy ak banda yaad aaya ha jo apky Ecc ke decision ke bary me information de sakta ha,Laken uska ph number mobile sa miss ho gea ha,ab junhee woh mujhy ph kary ga tu me us sa khabar ka khoojh zarur lagau ga.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 04, 2010, 09:49:11 PM
ECC to discuss import of used cars on July 20 (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1081851&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Yar used car import ke information ke lea mujhy ak banda yaad aaya ha jo apky Ecc ke decision ke bary me information de sakta ha,Laken uska ph number mobile sa miss ho gea ha,ab junhee woh mujhy ph kary ga tu me us sa khabar ka khoojh zarur lagau ga.

shukriya dost  :s1:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 06, 2010, 07:49:08 PM
(http://www.exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=PKR&base_iso_code=JPY&mode=G&filter=180)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 08, 2010, 12:54:03 PM
Government considering allowing import of older cars (http://tribune.com.pk/story/37038/government-considering-allowing-import-of-older-cars/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 12, 2010, 12:31:17 PM
Automobile & Parts: A Slow Beginning for FY11
   Automobile sales witnessed a growth of 10% YoY to 10,814 units in the first month of the new year (July 2011). It was primarily led by INDU with its sales up by 39% YoY to 4,999 units while PSMC posted a decline of 9% to 4,503 units during the month

   On a MoM basis sales witnessed a sharp decline of 34% mainly due to 1) hike in car prices with a higher rate of GST (17%) in place and 2) pre-buying of cars in Jun10

   Recent downtrend in sales including that of PSMC led us to revisit our financial model for the company. We forecast its EPS to clock in at PKR2.61/share for CY10 with its fair value revised downwards to PKR95/share from PKR106/share earlier. ADD

   Our DCF based fair value for INDU stays intact (since a detailed report on INDU: “Fuelled Up” issued on November 13, 2009) at PKR288/share. ADD
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 13, 2010, 10:31:07 PM
Auto Sector: Testing times ahead
According to monthly statistics released by Pakistan Auto Manufacturers Association (PAMA), auto sales have witnessed growth of 11% YoY during Jul'10. However, on MoM basis, a steep decline of 34% has been witnessed as auto sales clocked in at 10,942 units compared to 16,663 units in Jun'10. Decline in automobile sales during the month of Jul10 is mainly due to the high base in Jun10, as buyers rushed in to pre-book orders before the FY11 budget anticipating higher taxes ahead.

Outlook- Muted auto sales expected in FY11

We expect auto sales to remain muted during FY11, as auto sector's outlook has been dented considerably in the wake of i) worst ever flood in the country's history leading to a revised agricultural growth target for FY11 from the current 3.8%, ii) hike in discount rate by 50bps in Jul'10 and an anticipation of further tightening during FY11 and iii) reluctance of major banks to resume consumer financing. Moreover, gross margins of the local auto manufacturers are also expected to remain under pressure as PKR depreciated against both YEN (14.2%) and USD (6.6%) during FY10.  PKR continues to weaken against YEN as it has shed further 3% during FY11 and YEN has crossed PKR 1.0 in Aug'10.

IGI Research
Research Department | IGI Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 14, 2010, 09:48:47 PM
Automakers warn of freezing investments

KARACHI - The auto assemblers have strongly criticised Federal Government contemplation to allow import of used cars into the country which are 5-year-old with 2 per cent depreciation benefit. Car makers warned if the said proposal is implemented by the Government to teach them a lesson then they would be justified to hold on their further investments and expansion plan.
Sources in auto industry told The Nation that the Federal Government on the recommendation of Ministry of Industries and Production is expected to announce this measure in upcoming Trade Policy 2010-11, scheduled to be unveiled soon.
According to the sources, the government plans to comply with the suggestion of the Ministry of Industries by ensuring the ratio of imported cars to locally produced cars from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, relaxing the age from 3 to 5 years on used imported cars and reintroduce depreciation of 2 per cent instead of current 1 per cent.
Sources further said the vested interest lobby is playing the role of double-edged sword as in this way it will damage the genuine interest of the indigenous auto industry as well as the revenue collection by the government. The vested interest lobby does not want the local auto industry to grow as the sustainable growth of the industry will bring an end to pilferages and other illegitimate means of earning to the ultimate peril of the industry.
The sources in auto sector believe that the auto makers by readjusting their investment and expansion plans would survive this “lesson” but the revenue loss to the Govt will make it realise late that the decision has had negative impact on the country and only “few” will benefit that too on short term basis.

Source:
harkhabarpernazar (http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/14-Aug-2010/Automakers-warn-of-freezing-investments)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 17, 2010, 12:03:50 PM
Autos: estimates cut as trouble hits home

The ‘worst floods in Pakistan’s history’ have wreaked havoc across the country. While the losses are yet to be fully quantified, we cautiously revise down autos volumes forecasts for FY11E from +12% YoY to -10% YoY.

Adjusting for these, we revise down our Indus’s PO from PRs316/sh to PRs260/sh, rating from Buy to Neutral and FY11-12E EPS/DPS estimates by 15-23%.

Similarly, we downgrade our PO for PSMC from PRs90/sh to PRs64/sh, rating to Underperform and EPS estimates by 36%-47%.

We estimate that auto demand backed by agri income directly contributes 40-45% of volumes while secondary demand increases its effect to ~60% of demand.

Apart from volumes, we highlight Yen volatility as another risk whereby 1% FX volatility affects Indus’s FY11E EPS by PRs3.1 and PSMC’s 2010E EPS by PRs0.7.

KASB Securities and Economics Research
(9221) 111 222 000

Notes:
Dair aahey per durust aahey.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 18, 2010, 09:14:57 AM
New trade policy may reduce revenue from auto industry

KARACHI (August 18, 2010): The new trade policy, now being formulated, is likely to relax duties on import of up to five-year old cars, with depreciation of two percent instead of current one percent. Used cars, thus, will have more relaxed import procedures after the changes, industry sources believe.

Full story (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1093172&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 18, 2010, 01:24:39 PM
Demand could drop by 30 per cent: analysts

KARACHI: Forecasts of automobile sales volumes are being slashed by analysts because of the worst floods to hit Pakistan in the country’s history. Car sales were expected to grow 12 per cent on a yearly basis for the current fiscal year but now analysts expect them to decrease 10 per cent.

The worst case scenario, KASB Securities believes, is that demand could drop by 25 to 30 per cent on a yearly basis.

The decrease in volumes will mainly be due to the tremendous losses to the agriculture sector, as auto demand backed by agriculture income directly contributes 40 to 45 per cent of auto volumes, according to analysts at KASB Securities.

Automobiles, being  consumer  discretionary  items,  are  usually among the first  items to  go  off the  shopping  list  whenever purchasing power is stretched.

“The historical data shows that car sales dropped by 20 per cent on a yearly basis in the fiscal year of 1993 due to floods and the yellow cab scheme,” commented Muhammad Saqib Sajjad, an analyst.

Another factor which may contribute to the decline in sales is the volatility of the yen, as Japan is struggling to deal with a strengthening yen that is threatening the country’s economic recovery.

KASB’s analysis suggests that every 10 per cent change in sales volume will affect Indus Motors and Pak Suzuki’s earnings per share by eight and nine per cent, respectively.

The yen’s recent strengthening has resulted in a 12 per cent currency appreciation against the Pakistani rupee since May. This could further drag down earnings as weaker demand erodes automakers’ pricing power.

Indus Motor’s ‘Corolla’, may turn into a liability for the company as demand during the second and third quarter could take a big hit. The car’s sales are largely driven by agriculture income.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 18th, 2010
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 21, 2010, 12:00:59 PM
Mighty yen will depress Pak rupee
Japanese goods and car prices to go up
Amanullah Khan

Karachi —With a record appreciation of Japanese Yen of close to 10% only during last 3 months the price increase in commodities imported or linked to japans currency will increase specially the auto sector. Recent rally in Yen has resulted in 12% currency appreciation against Pak Rupee since May-10 to PRs1/Yen, the highest level in history which may force for an increase in car prices, however. This rally besides fast eroded agriculture income due to flood devastation can drastically reduce demand for autos as well.

A source in auto industry confirmed that one dollar was worth Rs73.81 in September 2008 and its value has since then increased by over 16 per cent to Rs85.68 now. Similarly Japanese Yen was traded at Rs0.6867 in September 2008 while its present value is Rs1.0037. This is an increase of 46 per cent, he said. Hot rolled Iron Sheet he added was worth $493 per ton in first quarter of 2009 that has now increased to $1050 per ton. The rates of Aluminum primary ingot has increased from $68 per pound to $108, he added. Domestic car industry is in a fix as the government wants it to cut car rates while the rupee has depreciated substantially against the dollar and Yen, raw materials gone up and its capacity utilization is down to 55 per cent.

Auto industry experts deplore that the government in recent times has put undue pressure on the local car industry by giving additional concessions to new entrants in violation of the Auto Industry Development Policy formulated with the consent of all stakeholders. There is a threat that the rules for import of new cars would also be relaxed.

They said that the government is fully aware of the economic depression coupled with high inflation prevailing in the country that has resulted in increase in rates of every commodity and product in the country. They said that car rates in the country have not jumped in line with the increase in the rates of other products. In fact rates of some brands have registered a decline as well. They said even the increase in the rates of used imported cars is more phenomenal when compared with their rates two years back. “I fail to understand as to why the auto-industry is being particularly targeted” said a leading manufacturer on condition of anonymity.

Source:
khattam-shud (http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=48169)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 22, 2010, 12:30:59 PM
Proposal to allow import of 5-year-old cars

Sunday, August 22, 2010
By Aftab Maken

ISLAMABAD: The ministries of commerce and industries have backed the proposal to relax the import of reconditioned cars in the country, which will bring down prices and solve the menace of premium charged on fresh bookings, a senior commerce ministry official told The News on Saturday.
“Both the ministries have agreed to send a fresh summary to the Cabinet’s Economic Coordination Committee (ECC),” Secretary Commerce, Zafar Mehmud said. “The proposal is to allow import of up to five-year-old reconditioned cars in the coming trade policy.”
Under the current rules, only three-year old car can be imported in the country.
Mehmud said that relaxing the age of imported vehicle would ensure cost-effective and timely supply of cars to the consumers.
“It will also check the practice of premium charged by dealers on fresh booking of cars,” he added. A summary lying with the ECC proposes different taxation measures and incentives for manufacturers to bring down car prices in the country.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) also supports the view of relaxing car imports.
In its proposal for the new trade policy, the revenue body said the age should be enhanced from three to five years under personal baggage, gift and transfer of residence schemes.
The FBR has also proposed a new definition of vehicle, which states, “New vehicle means vehicle imported directly from manufacturer or authorised distributor, unregistered and unused.”
FBR proposal on the import of Complete Knock Down (CKD) components says that these parts can only be imported by assemblers for models approved by Engineering Development Board on the certificates of registration.

Source:
shawa-balleyballey (http://www.thenews.com.pk/22-08-2010/business/451.htm)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 29, 2010, 01:19:58 PM
Auto industry faces bleak future (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1097034&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 09, 2010, 03:10:00 PM
Devastating floods dampen car sale (http://beta.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/devastating-floods-dampen-car-sale-990)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 12, 2010, 09:42:49 AM
(http://tribune.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/car-fi-640x480.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 14, 2010, 02:51:40 PM
Changing dynamics of economy delays trade policy
Boosting domestic market imperative to survive
Amanullah Khan

Karachi—The government has delayed the Trade Policy to first assess the situation in the aftermatgh of the flood and to wait for itsrecede and then announce a pro industry trade policy instead of pro import regime.

Actually flood ravages have changed the dynamic of Pakistan ’s economy that calls for boosting the domestic commerce that has been badly affected due to erosion of purchasing power of 20 per cent population of the country.

The government is currently considering a new industrial and trade initiatives which largely envisages the need to increase the share of industrial economy from 18 percent to 30 percent.

Industry circles hope that at such a crucial juncture the government would facilitate industries across the board and refrain from targeting auto industries to please few vested interests. The auto industry that was on revival path after two years of acute recession has lost a major chunk of its domestic market due to floods. The rural economy that was growing before floods due to high food and commodity rates was the buyer of most of the motorcycles, small cars and total production.

Affects of the flood are that Al Ghazi tractors is closed for two month and many small vendors are suffering badly and some may close down due to the small margins that they were operating on. Same acording to the sources can happen to the only vibrant and growing car industry. At this juncture the auto industry needs government facilitation to recapture the lost market. The recommendations on Auto industry sent to the Federal Cabinet by Industries Ministry before the devastations caused by the floods are contrary to what it is projecting to achieve though the industrial policy.

Experts are of the view that it would be insane on the part of government to ignore auto industry if it is serious about setting the directions to engage in desired growth of industrial economy share in the overall GDP composition of the country particularly after the floods.

Market analysts opine that if the Ministry of Industries is at all serious about saving the auto industry from being thrown out of the business then it must curb the inundation of fuel-inefficient and hazardous vehicles that lack after sale-service and spare parts availability in Pakistan . The Ministry of Industry’s proposal to the government to relax rules for import of used cars under the gift scheme, transfer of residence scheme and personal baggage scheme will prove to be detrimental to the growth and sustainability of the auto industry. It will make the country junkyard of obsolete technology, the added.

Auto Industry representative pointed out currently auto industry is still far from making even the nominal profits due to mounting cost of production, persistent inflation, rising cost of imported material and low level of capacity utilization. Experts believe that higher cost of locally manufactured vehicles is due to lesser indigenization, and the cost of local cars can be brought down by reducing the imports and substitution of local parts which will have reducing effects on the selling cost of the locally manufactured vehicles.

They said the proposed 2% depreciation allowed per month on used car is too high. Such a fundamental shift in policy will prove to be anti-investment as the existing entrants will be scared away for lack of encouraging business environment. The economy they added cannot afford the luxury of flawed policies after devastation caused to economy by the floods.

Source:
galla-kardee (http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=51986)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 20, 2010, 12:44:57 PM
Government unlikely to allow used cars import (http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=1104123&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: HANAN CHEEMA on September 20, 2010, 11:53:06 PM
seniors plz advice if one should invest in HCAR? :skeptic:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 21, 2010, 09:04:24 AM
seniors plz advice if one should invest in HCAR? :skeptic:

not the right time to invest in the auto sector I believe ..
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: HANAN CHEEMA on September 21, 2010, 09:29:45 AM
ok
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 24, 2010, 11:41:03 AM
"Indigenization and development of local industry has suffered in the past whenever fully made up cars (whether as cabs or otherwise) have been imported.
This practice should not be allowed in the future.  "

Extraction (http://moip.gov.pk/Ind%20Policy%20Draft%2014%20Sept%202010%20TH1.pdf)

Footnotes:
other sources also hints that import of used cars policy will remain unchanged [it will be a positive news if the year cap is decreased] .. start of sales pickup is the time to invest ..

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 09, 2010, 12:32:33 PM
Age limit for car imports increased to 5 years
According to news reports, the age limit for import of used cars has been raised to 5 years from 3 years
previously. However, the depreciation rate has been kept unchanged at 1% versus the proposed 2%.
Though no SRO has been issued yet, our discussions with the manufacturers’ management have
suggested that the SRO is likely to be issued within the next few days. We view this development to be an
adverse one for the local auto manufacturers, leading to a dampened demand outlook for locally
manufactured cars. Previously, when the age limit was reduced to 3 years from 5 years in FY08, the share
of imported cars decreased to 6% from an average 17%. Moreover, it is likely to restrict the pricing power
of the manufacturers and with the PKR-JPY parity at new highs; it all presents a gloomy outlook for their
margins going forward.
We maintain our ‘Market-Weight’ stance on the sector. With INDU rallying 13% since Nov 1st on the back
of impressive Oct sales figures (which we believe to weaken going forward), we find current levels a good
opportunity for investors to exit the stock. Moreover, we maintain our ‘Hold’ stance on PSMC.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 10, 2010, 12:03:27 PM
Autos: CBU age relaxation; more regulatory than demand risk

Government has reportedly relaxed age limit of used cars from 3 to 5 years with an objective to dilute dominance of local automakers and plug the trend of continuing price hikes.

We do not expect this to open flood gates of imports in near term, primarily due to higher costs of CBUs but see it as a regulatory risk to the industry. We expect imports of 5,000 units in FY11E (+38% YoY).

Hence, we retain our FY11E local car sales assumption of 135k units (-5% YoY) and reiterate Buy on Indus (PO: PRs273) and U/P on PSMC with PO of PRs64/sh.

The worst-case scenario of govt relaxing duty depreciation to 2%/month could affect sales of automakers by 2000 - 3000 units. This can contract PSMC's 2011E EPS by PRs0.4/sh to PRs6.9/sh & Indus's FY11E EPS by PRs0.6/sh to PRs33.8/sh.

We see the regressive and uncertain policy environment by the govt combined with slow demand amid macro headwinds, as key sentiment dampener for local automakers in the long run

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 10, 2011, 06:44:14 PM
Car sales up 5% in Dec and 11% in 1HFY11
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on January 26, 2011, 03:12:26 PM
ECC allows Import of more than three-year-old cars:geotv (yet again ;) )
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on January 26, 2011, 05:52:41 PM
ECC allows Import of more than three-year-old cars:geotv (yet again ;) )
(http://www.geo.tv/1-26-2011/urdu/1-26-2011_135212_1.gif)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on February 02, 2011, 12:26:31 PM
(http://www.exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=PKR&base_iso_code=JPY&mode=G&filter=180)
looks like cup with handle no ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on February 10, 2011, 02:33:24 PM
ECC likely to take important decisions for auto sector

* Decisions to be taken in next meeting on 15th

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet is expected to take some key decisions related to auto sector in its forthcoming meeting tentatively scheduled on February 15, official sources informed here on Wednesday.

The Ministry of Commerce has already proposed to the ECC to also allow 5 years old and used buses, trucks, vans and tractors under the Transfer of Residence Scheme, Gift Scheme and Personal Baggage Scheme.

Similarly, the ECC is also expected to approve the proposed incentive package for the new entrants in the auto sector of Pakistan aiming at reduction in the existing import duty of 32.5 percent on the Complete Knocked Down (CKD) for the new investors to 5 percent in first year, 10 percent for second year and 20 percent for third year. It is believed that this incentive would help attract new investors, Chinese, Korean and Europeans, to assemble up to 100,000 units per annum in the country.

The Ministry of Commerce has notified vide its SRO 90 (i) 2011 issued here the import of 5 years old and used cars by the overseas Pakistanis under Transfer of Residence Scheme, Gift Scheme and Personal Baggage Scheme. However, this facility would actually be available to the importers after approval of the increase in depreciation rate from 1% to 2% with a maximum cap of 50% on such cars, by the ECC of the Cabinet in it’s forthcoming meeting, official sources informed. ECC in its meeting on February 1, 2011 had deferred the decision till next meeting on increase in depreciation rate from 1% to 2% per month on the import of old and used vehicles with a maximum limit of 50% of the price of vehicle.

It was informed that there would be no negative impact on the production of local cars by allowing import of vehicles up to five years old under Transfer of Residence Scheme, Gift Scheme and Personal Baggage Scheme.

An official source informed that the details provided to the committee said that the import of vehicles up to five years old was allowed in fiscal year 2007-08; only 38,500 vehicles were imported while the local production also increased to 170,000 units.

The Ministries of Commerce and Industries and Federal Board of Revenue supported import of cars up to five years old, source said adding that they even recommended inclusion of buses, trucks, vans and tractors in the list. The Ministry of Commerce’s proposal said that import of buses having 40 seats should be allowed provided some reputable pre-inspection firms gave certificate for their road worthiness for at least 5 years.

For attracting new investment in the auto manufacturing, the Ministry of Industries has proposed to reduce the existing import duty of 32.5 percent on the Complete Knocked Down (CKD) for the new investors to 5 percent in first year, 10 percent for second year and 20 percent for third year. It noted that this incentive would help attract new investors, Chinese, Korean and Europeans, to assemble up to 100,000 units per annum in the country. However, the Ministry of Commerce proposed that the components and CKD kits not manufactured locally should be taxed 50 percent of the existing rate of 32.5 percent of ad-val custom duty and for those manufactured locally at 50 percent of the prevailing rate of 50 percent of ad-val custom duty. The country’s current car production capacity is 269,000 units per annum while the assemblers only manufactured 121,790 units during financial year 2009-10. The Japanese brands had a market share of 99.6 percent during the last fiscal year. Their dominance was attributed to the lack of competition and higher prices of cars. The Ministry of Commerce has recommended that the depreciation of 1 percent per month on the import of vehicles should be enhanced to 2 percent per month up to maximum limit of 50 percent of the price of vehicle.

Source:
badtameeze (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\02\10\story_10-2-2011_pg5_1)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on February 11, 2011, 11:35:37 AM
Automobile & Parts: Momentum Remains Strong
   Momentum in car sales continued in 7MFY11 where auto sales increased by 12% YoY to 82,298 units; sales for HCAR, PSMC and INDU recorded YoY growth of 21%, 14% and 9% respectively

   Car sales clocked in at 14,582 in Jan11, 16% higher YoY and 64% higher MoM (New Year factor)

   Tractor sales registered a slight decline of 3% YoY in its sales to 38,416 units in 7MFY11 with AGTL feeling the brunt of it with a drop of 13% YoY to 14,903 units while MTL witnessed an improvement of 4% YoY in its sales to 23,513 units during the period

   We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT stance on the sector where our Dec11 TP for INDU and PSMC stand at PKR240 and PKR90 respectively. At current price levels PSMC has an upside potential of 41% (BUY) however, the stock lacks any potential triggers while INDU is trading at a premium of 17% to our TP calling for a SELL recommendation
 
bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on February 11, 2011, 12:14:27 PM
significant drop in jpy to pkr - good for auto maker's margin
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on February 11, 2011, 12:55:09 PM
significant drop in jpy to pkr - good for auto maker's margin
(http://www.exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=PKR&base_iso_code=JPY&mode=G&filter=180)
Also read the following analysis HERE (http://www.economy-news.co.uk/japanese-yen-10201102.html)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on February 22, 2011, 03:08:53 PM
Moody's lowers Japan rating outlook to 'negative' (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/moodys-lowers-japan-rating-outlook-to-negative-20110222-1b3xq.html)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 05, 2011, 01:41:15 PM
Auto sector concerned over likely cut in duty
 
Hina Mahgul Rind
Saturday, March 05, 2011
 
KARACHI: The automobile industry and parts manufacturers have expressed serious concerns over the likely increase in the depreciation limit for the imported used cars because it would reduce customs duty on these cars by 10 percent.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet in its meeting held on Tuesday considered enhancing the depreciation limit on imported used cars to 60 from 50 percent, hence further reducing the duty on import of used vehicles.

However, no SRO has yet been issued.

Representatives of automotive industry said that this decision would favour traders instead of the local industry. “Increasing depreciation limit will be an unwise move. Instead of facilitating and protecting the local industry and encouraging more investment, the government is again favouring those working in the interest of the imported cars lobby,” said a spokesperson for Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).

He said it was claimed that the move would help bring down car prices. It would actually make Pakistan a dumping ground for cars that have lived their lives, he said.

An Indus Motor Company (IMC) spokesperson said that facilitating import of used cars would hamper investment by the local manufacturers.

Furqan Punjani, auto analyst at Topline Securities, said that enhancing depreciation limit would have a negative impact on the local manufacturers.

Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM) Chairman Aamir Allawala said that vested interests in the Federal Cabinet had managed to get import duty reduced on used vehicles.

Source:
chikaboom (http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=34338&Cat=3&dt=3/5/2011)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 11, 2011, 12:02:19 PM
Autos: Raising volumes forecasts amid strong offtake

As per latest PAMA numbers, sales of locally assembled vehicles improved by 13% YoY to 13,375 units in Feb-11. While car sales are gaining strength ahead of peak demand season, LCVs remain the key growth driver so far.

Anticipating continuing strong volumes despite threat from used CBUs, we raise FY11E sales forecasts to 150k-units (+6% YoY, up from -5% YoY) and flag a bull-case of 156 k-units (+10% YoY).

Our optimism stems from the fact that the windfall gains to farmers from strong commodity prices are yet to fully trickle down to auto sales.

Yet, we remain cautious on automakers’ profitability due to prevailing cost-side pressures that, amid weakened pricing power from regulatory risks, will keep on straining automakers’ margins and bottom-line in the near future.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 11, 2011, 12:03:01 PM
Automobile & Parts: Auto Sales Fail to Maintain Pace in Feb11

   Automobile sales witnessed an increase of 12% YoY to 95,635 units sold during 8MFY11 compared to 85,300 units sold in the same period last year. The growth was led by HCAR which recorded an increase of 21% YoY in its sales followed by PSMC and INDU at 14% and 10% respectively

   Sales clocked in at 13,337 units in Feb11, up by 14% YoY while a higher base in Jan11 resulted in a MoM decline of 9%

   INDU suffered the most MoM (-20% in Feb11) while PSMC recorded a minute growth (2% MoM) despite ban on its CNG vehicles during the month

   Tractor sales remained flat YoY at 45,519 units in 8MFY11 with AGTL slowly losing its share to MTL

   Within BMA Universe, our Dec11 TP for INDU stands at PKR213 reflecting downside risk of 7%, hence we recommend REDUCE while PSMC is currently under review

BMA
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 11, 2011, 12:05:05 PM
Auto sales up 13%YoY in Feb

While auto sales witnessed its seasonal downturn in Feb (down 9%MoM vs. historical average of -5%), encouragingly sales increased by 13%YoY. We attribute improved farmer’s income because of higher agricultural commodity prices for the uptick in demand; however, view recent relaxation in the age limit and depreciation rate on imported cars as a potential dampener, going forward. For the period 8MFY11, auto sales stood at 96,142 units (up 12%YoY); with all the 3 major assemblers witnessing a positive double digit growth in their sales. We remain ‘Under-Weight’ on the sector due to the enhanced regulatory risks and higher than expected margin contraction and maintain a ‘Sell’ stance on INDU.

Feb auto sales up 13%YoY; down 9%MoM

Auto sales continued its positive momentum in Feb aided by higher agricultural commodity prices. While INDU and HCAR’s sales increased by 13%YoY and 18%YoY, respectively, PSMC too witnessed an increase of 16%YoY despite suspending booking of its CNG vehicles. On a MoM basis however, industry’s sales decline by 9% - largely inline with its 10-year historical average of -5%, due to inflated sales figures in Jan because of the New Year effect.

PSMC and HCAR share rise in 8MFY11

Autos sales are up 12%YoY during 8MFY11, with HCAR and PSMC sales rising by 21%YoY and 14%YoY, respectively. INDU’s lower than industry’s growth of 10%, is largely due to its high base of last year. As a result, PSMC remained the market leader with a share of 54% (53% previously), followed by INDU’s 34% (down 58bps) and HCAR’s 11% (up 80bps).

Outlook: ‘Under-Weight’


We remain ‘Under-Weight’ on the sector due to 1) the raise in the age limit of imported cars to 5 years from 3 years, 2) the increase in depreciation rate for value assessment on imported cars to 60% from 50% previously and 3) margin contraction because of rising input prices (GMs down to 1.6% in 2QFY11 vs. 4.5% in 1QFY11). At current levels, we recommend a ‘Sell’ stance on INDU.

March 11, 2011 (JS Research)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 11, 2011, 02:49:16 PM
Auto sales up 12% YoY in 8mo FY11

    * According to figures released by PAMA, car and pickup sales have declined by 9% MoM in Feb11 to 13,375 units. However, YoY growth still remains buoyant as cars+pickup volume growth recorded 12% in the 8mo FY11 with 96,142 units leaving the shelf.

    * Passenger car sales registered an increase of 11% YoY during 8mo FY11 and stood at 75,573 units.

    * Recently the ECC in its meeting held on Mar1’11 decided to increase the amount of depreciation amount on imported cars to a maximum of 60%, adding to the woes of local OEMs.

    * Furthermore, depreciation of the PKR against the Yen (-12% FYTD) and increasing steel prices (+15% YTD) is likely to further depress profitability for local manufacturers.

    * However, relative stability in the JPY against the PKR since Nov10 combined with higher farmer income and consequently higher auto sales could bolster bottomline for auto manufacturers in 2H FY11.

IGI Research
Research Department | IGI Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 14, 2011, 08:08:31 PM
Autos – implications of potential Yen appreciation

n      Details of losses from the worst earthquake in Japan ’s history and resulting Tsunami are yet to be calculated, though the Japanese PM called it the worst disaster to hit Japan since WWII.

n      Initial news flow and analyst comments suggest the impact on GDP to be lower than the 1995 Kobe earthquake as the affected areas are neither densely populated not highly industrialized.

n      Having said that, Japanese being the third-largest economy and net savers (23.1% of GDP) are expected to impact both global currency and commodities markets. While weaker initial demand should negatively affect commodities prices, Japanese repatriating investments to use in relief/reconstruction activities should cause Yen appreciation. The Japanese yen appreciated by 20% post Kobe earthquake.

n      We believe this can affect autos by (1) disruption in parts supplies though inventory holdings (35-45 days on average) should help in smooth local production in the short-term, (2) Yen appreciation raising parts and CKD costs. On a positive side, CBUs becoming more expensive will limit inflow of used cars in the local market.

n      While currency analysts are yet to come up with estimates of likely Yen appreciation, our static analysis suggest that every 5% Yen appreciation will contract PSMC’s 2011E earnings by 3.4/sh (from our base-case of PRs4.5/sh) and Indus’ FY11E earnings by PRs3.2/sh (from our base-case of PRs33.7/sh). The swing factors from these estimates include (1) automakers raising prices to pass-on the impact to end users as they are operating at wafer-thin margins and (2) cushion from US$/Yen hedging used by automakers to counter FX risk.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 16, 2011, 11:00:49 AM
(http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/1526/jpybo16mar11.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 17, 2011, 11:02:45 AM
(http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/1526/jpybo16mar11.png)
(http://www.exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=PKR&base_iso_code=JPY&mode=G&filter=180)
muhuhahaa
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 17, 2011, 01:22:05 PM
Automakers raise prices to pass?on 1.5% additional SED (The News)
Reportedly, all the three leading automakers are raising selling prices to pass?on the increase
in SED by 1.5% to buyers. Pak Suzuki, the leading automakers, will be increasing prices by
PRs6,000?30,000/car. Honda Atlas will raise prices of City by PRs17,000 and Civic by PRs24,000.
Similarly, Indus has increased prices of its locally assembled Toyota and Daihatsu cars and LCVs
by PRs10,000 ?30,000. While other automakers are only passing?on the impact of higher SED to
buyers, Indus has raised prices of Cuore and Hilux by another PRs35,000?55,000 and
PRs20,000?25,000 respectively to adjust for higher input costs too. The price hikes to pass?on
higher taxes/duties are inline with the historical trend that should not affect demand going
forward, in our view
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 31, 2011, 11:47:14 AM
Autos: Lowering estimates as Japan factor drags on
???? Although the impact of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami on supply of auto parts
is yet to be fully weighed, we conservatively revise down industry sales
forecasts for FY11E from 150k?units (+6% YoY) to 133k?units (?6% YoY).
???? While the supply issue is likely to show its worst effect on 4QFY11 production,
Yen volatility and recent hike in taxes remain other key swing factors.
???? Adjusting for these, we revise down F11?12E EPS estimates for INDU by
36%/22% to PRs21.8/33.5 and PO to PRs227/sh (?17%); and 2011?12E EPS
estimates for PSMC by 13%/4% to PRs3.9/7.5 and PO to PRs56/sh (?7%).
???? We believe the worst of volumes, regulatory and FX risks are yet to hit industry
profitability and reiterate Underperform on both the automakers.

Table?1: Summary of key changes
PRs/sh New Old % ?
PSMC
PO 56.0 60.0 ?6.7%
EPS 11E 3.9 4.5 ?13.4%
EPS 12E 7.5 7.8 ?3.7%
INDU
PO 227.0 273.0 ?16.8%
EPS FY11E 21.8 33.9 ?35.7%
EPS FY12E 33.5 41.9 ?20.0%
Source: KASB Estimates
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 31, 2011, 11:59:17 AM
Suzuki and Indus Motor earnings expected to fall

KARACHI:

Top two car assemblers, Pak Suzuki and Indus Motor, will witness a drop in earnings in fiscal 2011 due to rupee depreciation, hike in steel prices and the government’s decision to increase age limit for used car imports to five years.

Topline Securities estimates that Indus Motor’s earnings will fall by 7-26 per cent in fiscal 2011-2013 while Pak Suzuki Motor Company is expected to see a drop of 25-44 per cent in the same period.

The Japanese yen has started gaining upward momentum in anticipation that a huge amount of yen would be required for reconstruction activities following the Japanese earthquake. Within a week of calamity, the yen appreciated by almost four per cent against the US dollar, hitting an all-time high.

The same was also witnessed in the rupee to yen parity as the yen appreciated by almost two per cent from the date of devastation. With further appreciation of the yen expected, cost pressures would continue to hurt local assemblers, said Topline Securities analyst Furqan Punjani in a research note.

Used car risk mitigated
till June

The devastation in Japan has added cost pressure for local assemblers but it also has mitigated the risk posed by used car imports, said Punjani.

Used car prices are expected to increase by almost 10 to 15 per cent due to supply constraints in Japan and appreciation of the yen against the rupee.

Thus, the risk of cheaper imported cars seems to be mitigated for local assemblers, at least for this financial year, added Punjani.

A new risk emerging

Several Japanese automakers have extended their production shutdowns into third week after the devastation. Suzuki started production at three of its plants earlier this week but component unavailability forced the plants to shut down again. Toyota has already extended production shutdown to early April.

The plant closure in Japan would also spark concerns of component unavailability for domestic assemblers, said Punjani. Although domestic car assemblers maintain inventory of completely knocked down (CKD) kits for almost two months, they will start feeling the heat by the end of April if supply is not restored, added Punjani.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 31st, 2011.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on April 12, 2011, 12:14:00 PM
  TUESDAY 12 April 2011 
  GRAPEVINE 
 
   
 
Mar11 auto sales; HCAR at pole-position 
 

  Automobile sales witnessed an increase of 14% YoY to 111K units sold during 9MFY11 compared to 98K units sold during the same period last year 
 In 9MFY11 growth was led by HCAR which recorded an increase of 23% YoY in its sales followed by PSMC and INDU at 18% and 7% respectively 

 Mar11 sales clocked in at 15,634 units, 17% higher MoM and 24% higher YoY. PSMC witnessed a growth of 38% to 9,626 cars sold during the month while INDU could not keep pace with its previous trend and posted a decline of 9% MoM to 4,268 units 
 
INDU which increased its car prices on the back of weak PKR and increased SED (2.5% from 1% earlier) suffered the most recording 12% YoY decline in Mar11 
 Cuore sales dropped by a significant 32% MoM in Mar11 with Corolla showing a decline of 8% MoM 

 Tractor sales dipped by 2% YoY to 50,551 units in 9MFY11 with AGTL sales declining by 8% YoY while MTL’s increasing by 3% YoY during the same period. Imposition of GST on tractor sales would likely reduce sales however higher agri income would compensate for the same 

 INDU recently unveiled its new Corolla model for Xli/Gli in an effort towards attracting customers who are looking up to imported counterparts. However, increasing prices may act as a deterrant to a significant growth in its sales going forward 

 The stock is currently trading at FY11E PER of 9.4x with Dec 11 TP of PKR212/share. NEUTRAL
 
 
 
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on April 12, 2011, 12:21:01 PM
Auto sales up 23%YoY in Mar, holding firm against relaxed
imports

???? Auto sales during March 2011 witnessed an increase of 23%YoY and 17%MoM. It had been largely
expected that the recent measures taken by the government to relax the auto import policy (increase in
age limit to 5 years from 3 years and capping the depreciation at 60% from 50%) will hurt sales of the
local auto assemblers, however, auto sales continued to impress on the back of high farm income
amid high agricultural commodity prices.

???? PSMC outperformed it peers during the month, with sales rising by 48%YoY and 38%MoM. In our
view, the company has benefited from the clearance of CNG kits by the government authorities for its
supplier during the month. However, Indus Motor’s sales witnessed a decline of 12%YoY and 9%MoM
as sales of Corolla declined by 11%YoY and 8%MoM. We believe an expected launch of the new
model of Corolla in April has delayed the purchase of the vehicle by the customers.

???? As a result, industry auto sales during 9MFY11 stood at 111.8k units, up 13%YoY. PSMC continued to
be the market leader with a share of 55%, followed by INDU’s share of 33%.

???? We expect auto sales to stand in the vicinity of 137k units in FY11. We continue to maintain our
‘Under-Weight’ stance on the sector on the back of high regulatory risk and rising cost pressures.
Moreover, the recent earthquakes in Japan are likely to result in production disruptions for Pakistani
assemblers, going forward.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 11, 2011, 02:56:05 PM
Auto sales: 4QFY11 to see a slump   
   
  Automobile sales witnessed a growth of 13% YoY to 125,100 units during 10MFY11 compared to 110,752 units sold in the same period last year 
 Growth was led by Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) at 26% YoY to 13,754 units followed by Pak Suzuki (PSMC) and Indus Motor (INDU) at 18% (69,203 units) and 5% (41,940 units) respectively 
 Tractor sales dropped by 3% YoY to 56K units in 10MFY11 compared to 58K units sold in 10MFY10 
 Low capacity utilization levels post Japanese earthquake would likely lead to a drop in sales during 4QFY11. Relaxation in car imports is another red flag for the industry; however, talks regarding reducing custom duty to 25% in the upcoming budget bodes positive for the sector 
 Our DCF based Dec11 Target Prices for INDU and PSMC stand at PKR212 and PKR70 respectively denoting NEUTRAL stance on both the stocks
 
 
bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on May 12, 2011, 07:41:44 PM
Auto Sector Monthly Update (http://www.akd-trade.com/ResearchDocs/AKD_Daily_May_12_2011.pdf)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ally on May 15, 2011, 01:08:30 PM
Montly  production and sales data for April'11 has been uploaded on PAMA website and could be viewed on the link below:

http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sale-2011.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on July 12, 2011, 12:56:36 PM
Auto sales FY11 up only 3% YoY; volumes to make a comeback
 
•According to PAMA, car and pickup sales witnessed marginal growth of 3.4% YoY to record 146,496 units during FY11, as compared to 141,654 units sold last year.
 
•Sales in Jun11 came at a 27 month low at 7,517 units, a massive decline of 55% YoY, as demand dropped in anticipation of price decreases due to 1% reduction in GST, alongside removal of 2.5% SED.
 
•Total tractor sales during FY11 declined by 3% YoY to 69,203 units, compared to sales of 71,512 units sold in FY10. MTL outshone its peer, AGTL, recording the highest ever production/sales in its history by selling 42,016 tractors in FY11, up 4.7% YoY from 40,140 tractors in FY10.
 
•After a dull Jun11, we expect sales growth to U-turn as consumer purchasing should now come in full swing on the back of pent up demand and declining prices from budgetary relief measures materializing.
 
•Post the 3.5% duty reduction announced in the Budget FY12, auto assemblers have reduced prices by 1%-2.7%.
 
IGI Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 12, 2011, 10:32:48 AM

Autos: pent-up deliveries boost July sales

Sales of locally assembled cars and LCVs improved by 60% YoY to 17,563 units in July 2011. Apart from sequential improvement, deferred delivery of vehicles in June to avail tax arbitrage was the primary factor behind the jump.

In an anticipated move, all three automakers have increased prices by 1-3.7% within a month of the tax cuts to benefit from breathing space

Although volatility in commodity prices and Yen appreciation by ~4% since June should inflate production cost, we believe the price hikes should more than compensate and expect margins to improve from 3Q.

Going forward, Punjab Govt's taxi scheme and improving supplies from Japan should help in 22% YoY growth in auto sales FY12E.

PSMC (Buy, PO: PRs85) is our top pick in the autos space while Indus (Neutral, PO: PRs238) has also become attractive post recent price correction

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: guru1 on August 12, 2011, 02:44:27 PM
sales surge
http://paknewspoint.blogspot.com
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 13, 2011, 12:08:28 PM
Auto sales have increased by 9%YoY to 12,117 units
in Aug 2011 mainly owing to low base of previous
year. To recall customer activity was somewhat
subdued this time last year owing to unprecedented
floods. However, on a MoM basis, sales witnessed a
decline by 31%. High base because of tax advantage
in July led to this decline on a sequential basis.
Hence, in 2MFY12 sales stood at 29,680 units – up 35%YoY.
During this period, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales surged by
67%YoY, while Indus Motors (INDU) witnessed an increase of
6%YoY. Going forward, we expect demand to somewhat
weaken in September owing to Eid holidays and floods in
southern parts of the country. We presently maintain our
‘Market-Weight’ outlook on the sector, with ‘Hold’ calls on
both PSMC and INDU.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 13, 2011, 01:28:18 PM

AKD Daily

Car sales up but Tractors are a different story

Latest statistics reveal a growth of 35%YoY in auto sales (both Cars & LCVs) in 2MFY12. In this regard, Car sales grew by 30%YoY to stand at 25,553 units while sales of LCVs increased by 72%YoY to stand at 4,127 units in the review period. Growth stemmed from positives announced in the FY12 Budget (Removal of SED & reduction of GST from 17% to 16%). In this regard, PSMC outperformed the sector, posting a sales volume growth of 67%YoY to 18,301 units. Sequentially however, total auto sales declined by 31%MoM, with cars sales declining by 28%MoM to stand at 10,697 units and LCV sales declining by 48%MoM to stand at 1,420 units in Aug'11. On the rural front, having first witnessed GST imposition followed by weaker farmer economics (floods, increasing nutrient prices, lower cotton prices), the tractor industry has faced a tough few months of late. In this regard, total tractor sales declined by a hefty 78%YoY to stand at 1,993 units in 2MFY12. MTL posted a sales decline of 76%YoY to 1,378 while AGTL posted a sales decline of 82%YoY to 615 units. Sequentially, while total tractor sales declined by 7%MoM to stand at 957 units, MTL's sales declined by 10%MoM to 651 units and AGTL posted flat volumes of 306 units in Aug'11. We are currently in the process of reviewing our investment case on Autos and shall update shortly.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 13, 2011, 01:59:35 PM
Auto Sales: More of a blip! Tractor sales disappoint!
 
·         Auto Sales for the mo of Aug’11 exhibited a decline of 31% MoM to 12,117 units from 17,563 units in Jul’11. On a YoY basis monthly sales for Aug’11 increased by 9.4% from 11,076 units in Aug’10. 8moCY11 figures showed an improvement of 7.4% YoY to 107,945 units from 100,538 units.
 
·         The economy segment (< 1000cc) car sales witnessed a massive decline of 45.3% to 2,247 units primarily due to a drop in PSMC’s sales. PSMC’s sales on an aggregate level witnessed a fall of 47.5% MoM as production declined across the board. Ramadan and worsening law and order situation in the middle of the month of Aug’11 impacted production. Sales were also impacted by a 2% price increase announced by manufacturers in the beginning of Aug’11.
 
·         Auto sales increased earlier in the month of Jul’11 due to price reductions by manufacturers and deferred purchases by customers who had delayed their Jun’11 purchases to benefit from price cut. In terms of market share for 8moCY11, PSMC was able to get a 55.5% share vs 33.8% of INDU. In the month of Aug’11, PSMC’s market share clocked in at 52% against 68.3% in Jul’11 with the decline in market share due to lower sales by PSMC.
 
·         Tractor sales came in much below expectations with only a total of 957 tractor units (MTL 651 units) sold in Aug’11 against 1,036 units in Jul’11. AGTL’s operations remained closed  for the entire month of Aug’11. In total only 975 tractor units were produced and that too by MTL. With the recent floods alongside unchanged dynamics with regards to farmer income, Sep’11 is expected to witness another month of lackluster demand. Moving into Oct’11, tractor demand may mark an inflexion point and one may see demand growth from current levels.

·         Outlook-Demand for cars especially PSMC is expected to remain robust going forward as the Punjab Taxi scheme is expected to start from Sep’11. Under this scheme, Pak Suzuki is expected to sell 20,000 units over an eight month period. This scheme will help buttress car demand going forward for FY12.

igi
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on October 07, 2011, 10:27:00 AM

Autos: Stocks yet to appreciate price hikes



Both Indus Motors and PSMC have raised their selling prices twice since Jul-11 which should improve their margins, as quantum was higher than cost hike. However, contrary to historic trend, the stock prices are yet to appreciate this.

Our analysis for 2009-11 period show that stock prices of both Indus (+15.8% in 1M) and PSMC (+1.9% in 1M) react favorably to price hike announcements.

Moreover, trend analysis (2005-10) also shows auto stocks outperform KSE-100 index in 4QCY. Indus outperformed by 6% during the period while PSMC by 4%.

The stock prices may pose an initial negative reaction to QoQ weaker Sep-11 results (impact of Yen appreciation). However, attractive valuations, improving volumes and benefits of the recent price hikes trickling into earnings should help stocks in outperforming KSE-100 index during 4Q11, and beyond.

Indus (PO: PRs260) is our preferred pick in autos due to attractive valuations matrix, while we also reiterate Buy on PSMC (PO: PRs85) on its strong earnings turnaround potential following recent price hike and sales for taxi scheme


INDU valuation matrix
YE: Jun 10A 11A 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 43.8 34.9 42.8 47.3
DPS (PRs) 15.0 15.0 20.0 26.0
P/E (x) 4.43 5.6 4.5 4.1
D/Y (%) 7.7% 7.7% 10.3% 13.4%
P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Source: INDU, KASB Research.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec CY09 CY10 C’11E C’12E
EPS (PRs) 3.1 2.6 9.0 13.3
DPS (PRs) 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.0
P/E (x) 21.7 26.3 7.5 5.1
D/Y (%) 0.7% 0.7% 3.0% 4.4%
P/B (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Source: PSMC, KASB Research.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on October 11, 2011, 11:37:36 AM
uto Sales - Gathering Traction!
 

•Auto Sales for the month of Sep’11 exhibited a growth of 20% YoY to 14,016 units from 11,651 units in Sep’10 while sequentially on a MoM basis sales were up by 15.7% as production levels normalized to pre Ramadan levels.
 
•Car Sales in the economy segment (< 1,000cc) witnessed a ~ 48% MoM surge to 3,342 units as PSMC’s production bounced back from the Ramadan effect. Sales in the economy segment were up by 35% YoY. Going forward, PSMC will continue to benefit from the Punjab Taxi Scheme and less competition in the <=1,000cc segment as INDU plans to withdraw its Cuore for a model change.
 
•We believe the 3 listed car manufacturers will not be affected significantly by the recent changes in Auto industry policy, if the policy is enforced properly, as the size of the Pakistan market is quite small at around 150k annual units. This will make it difficult to attract Marquee names like VW, FIAT or so.
 
•Tractor sales came in at 2,222 units, a decline of 54% YoY although up 132% MoM. AGTL’s plant was still shutdown while MTL capitalized and took away its market share. Tractor industry at the moment is bogged down under policy paralysis where the GoP has failed to declare its stance on whether there will be a GST cut or will the current rate stay.
 
IGI Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Dhillon on October 11, 2011, 02:29:47 PM
Auto sector - lower interest rates to foster demand   
             
Highlights

            •         Auto sector posted a 30%YoY growth in sales

            •         Small car segment leading the sales

            •         Recommendation - 'Buy' HCAR & INDU

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released auto industry's sales figures for Sep-11. In today's Value Seeker, we are presenting an analysis of the auto sales performance during 1QFY12. 

Auto sector posted a 30%YoY growth in sales

Total industry auto sales (Car, LCV & Pickup) surged by 30% YoY to 43,694 units, contributed by 27%YoY increase in car sales to 38,065 units coupled with 54%YoY growth in LCV, Jeeps & Pickups to 5,629 units. However, production posted a nominal growth of 5%YoY to 37,960 units in 1QFY12. The healthy demand from the rural areas remained the key factor which helped the auto sector to grow its sales volume. Amid lack of financing facilities from the financial institutions coupled with rise in prices, the trend suggests strong cash sale and confirms the real demand of autos in the country.

Small car segment leading the sales

With rise in oil & CNG prices, the 800cc segment of the cars posted massive growth of 47%YoY to 13,786 units while the overall weight of 800cc segment in total car sales has improved by 5ppsYoY to 36%. Suzuki Mehran registered a massive growth of 57%YoY to 8,415 units in 1QFY12. However, Coure's was unable to post any significant growth and grew only 13%YoY to 1,282 units.

Under the 1000cc segment (19% share in overall sales), Pak Suzuki was only the company which is enjoying dominance.  Its Alto and Cultus registered a growth of 29%YoY to 3,633 units and 30%YoY to 3,710units respectively.

1300cc+ engine capacity cars which have been dominating car sales for some time now grew only by 13%YoY to 16,936 units during 1QFY12. Honda's Civic and City showed volumetric improvement of 10%YoY and 13%YoY to 1,710 and 2,562 units during the 1QFY12. On the other hand, Indus' Corolla posted only 3%YoY growth to 10,862 units during 1QFY12 while Suzuki Liana and Swift sales increase by massive 114%YoY to 156 units and 171%YoY to 1,826 units respectively.

Recommendation - 'Buy' HCAR & INDU

Current SBP decision to cut the discount rate by 150bps would positively impact the auto sales as car financing will be available at cheaper rates. However, appreciation in JPY against PKR and higher steel prices remains the big risks for the sector. Currently, INDU is trading at FY12 forward PE multiple of 5.6x and offering a dividend yield of 7.7%, we recommend 'Buy' on the scrip with the target price of Rs263/share. We also recommend ‘Buy’ on HCAR with the Dec-11 target price of Rs15/share while recommend ‘Hold’ on PSMC with the target price of Rs77/share

InvestCap

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 15, 2011, 10:09:56 AM

Autos: Steady performance in Oct-11

Auto sales continued to show steady progress with Oct-11 numbers up 8% MoM to 15,107 units. While PSMC continues to lead the way despite slower than expected off-take by Punjab Govt's taxi scheme, Indus benefited from strong Corolla sales.

PSMC sales are up by 13% YoY in Oct; however, sales are lower than expected as the delivery to Punjab Govt's taxi scheme seems still behind its target. The delay in deliveries should show strong run-up in coming months.

We reiterate Buy on both PSMC (PO: PRs94/sh, top-pick in autos) and Indus (PO: 260/sh). We see PSMC's earnings growing by 4x YoY to PRs12.9/sh in 2011E on strong volumes and improving margins.

Indus is also available at attractive FY12E P/E 4.7x and offers 10% D/Y besides 27% upside to our PO. Having said that, we do not rule out near-term pressure weighing on the stock performance as its volumetric performance could remain subdued due to Thai floods factor.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on December 12, 2011, 02:58:22 PM
Restoration of ST zero-rating facility on tractors: FBR opposes ministry's proposal (http://www.brecorder.com/market-data/stocks-a-bonds/single/636/0:/1258966:restoration-of-st-zero-rating-facility-on-tractors-fbr-opposes-ministrys-proposal/?date=2011-12-09)
ECC discussing the matter today:geo
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on December 12, 2011, 07:42:21 PM
Restoration of ST zero-rating facility on tractors: FBR opposes ministry's proposal (http://www.brecorder.com/market-data/stocks-a-bonds/single/636/0:/1258966:restoration-of-st-zero-rating-facility-on-tractors-fbr-opposes-ministrys-proposal/?date=2011-12-09)
ECC discussing the matter today:geo
subdivision committe made to remove sales tax on tractors:geo
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 12, 2011, 11:11:18 PM
Auto sales marginally up by 1%YoY in Nov 2011
???? Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released the auto sales numbers for
November 2011.
???? Auto sales for the month stood at 11,926 units vs. 11,765 units in the same month last year,
marginally growing by 1%YoY.
???? Pak Suzuki (PSMC) registered an impressive growth of 15%YoY on the back of Yellow Cab
scheme offered by the Punjab government. Recall that the government had only approved
PSMC’s Mehran and Bolan for this subsidized scheme. On the other hand, Indus Motor (INDU)
and Honda Car’s (HCAR) sales have declined by 17%YoY each. We attribute increase in prices
by the manufacturers for the decline in their sales.
???? On a MoM basis, auto sales have fallen by 21%. The decline was largely anticipated owing to 1)
consumers delaying their purchases to take advantage of next year’s registration and 2) lesser
working days in the month due to Eid holidays.
???? Hence, during 5MFY12 auto sales have risen by 20%YoY thanks to growth in home remittances
and Punjab government’s Yellow Cab scheme.
???? Looking ahead, we expect auto sales to stand in the vicinity of 172k units in FY12 – a growth of
17% compared to last year.
???? INDU remains our top pick in the sector.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 13, 2011, 11:16:28 AM
Auto Sales- Taking a slight breather for the new year!
 

•Auto Sales for the month of Nov’11 exhibited a sequential decline of 21% MoM to 11,924 units from 15,107 units while on a YoY basis they were up 1.4%. Customers, especially in the >1,300cc segment usually delay purchases especially when the calendar year is drawing to a close and this is what has affected sales numbers of HCAR and INDU.
 
•The economy segment (< 1,000cc) car sales witnessed 6% YoY growth to 2,911 units while sequentially it was down 10% as Cuore sales came to a standstill. Recall that INDU plans to phase out Cuore and possibly launch another model.
 
•Tractor sales were recorded at 3.62k units declining by 10.6% MoM. With the Rabi season coming to its peak in Dec11, we will see a gradual tapering of Tractor demand from there onwards until the Kharif season, based on seasonal trend. We maintain our estimates for MTL to record 26k tractor units in FY12 (MTL: EPS PKR 48 FY12).
 
•The Pak Rupee witnessed a 2.8% depreciation from Nov11 till date. Market intel suggests that INDU has already raised its prices on average by 1.5%. Although we might see a small pullback in demand but since this will also price imported cars higher, as currency depreciation works at the same level for imports and domestic manufacturers, we believe through this action margins will be maintained.

IGI Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on December 16, 2011, 02:44:06 PM
Autos: Ban on CNG kits, another risk materializes
 
The ECC has banned imports of CNG kits and cylinders in order to discourage CNG use. Following this, we lower FY12E auto sales forecasts by 20% to 150k-units and downgrade the sector to “Underweight” on higher regulatory risk.
 
PSMC being the largest player in small cars segment should be the worst hit, in our view. We cut PSMC’s 2011-13E EPS estimates by 7%-30%, lower PO to PRs60 and downgrade the stock from Buy to Underperform.
 
We also lower Indus’s FY12-14E EPS estimates by 4%-5% and cut PO from PRs260 to PRs250 though retain our Buy call.
 
This is the worst-case outcome for local automakers though not the best solution to achieve the stated objective, in our view. Levying import duty on equipment and lowering CNG-petrol price gap could have been better alternatives.
 
KASB Securities and Economics Research

(jiss pe takiya tha ..)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: AGz on December 19, 2011, 10:05:31 AM

Al-Ghazi, Millat tractors close down manufacturing units
M RAFIQUE GORAYA

LAHORE: Two main tractor manufacturing units Al-Ghazi Tractors and Millat Tractors have suspended their production after plummeting of their sales as levy of 16 percent GST has made the farm machinery costlier and Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited has stopped tractor loans to the cash starved farmers for the past two years.

Millat Tractors Limited and Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited account for virtually all of industry's yearly output of more than 72,000 tractors.

A senior executive of Millat Tractors told Business Recorder here on Friday that tractor sales nosed down to 12,000 from July to December 2011 as against 30,000 tractors during corresponding period of last year. The industry sold 70,770 tractors from July 2010 to June 2011, he added.

He said tractor manufacturers have suspended procurement of parts from their vendors as there are already several thousand unsold tractors dumped at their plants and countrywide dealership network. Tractor prices surged by Rs100,000 to Rs. 200,000 a piece depending on engine horse power after imposition of 16 per cent GST in March last year plunging the industry in turmoil and endangering investment of billions of rupees, he added.

He said since ZTBL had suspended credit to farmers for purchase of tractors for two years and high interest rate of commercial banks' loans, tractors are being purchased only by those limited number of affluent growers who pay net cash. He lamented that prices of cotton have suddenly fallen to a new low, farmers are not getting payment of sugarcane produce in cash, on the contrary, prices of fertilisers and other agri-outputs have skyrocketed, therefore the cash deficit small farmers have no money to purchase tractors.

The executive suggested that the Punjab government should provide tractors to the unemployed people instead of taxis as a tractor is economically more useful and employment generator than a car/taxi Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers Manufacturing held an emergent meeting here on Friday to review the socio-economic impact of tractor manufacturing units closure in the short and long run as they have stopped buying parts of tractors from the vendors spread all over the country.

Talking to this scribe PAAPAM chairman Nabeel Hashmi said that thousands of auto parts manufacturing units which provide 92 percent parts to the tractor industry are laying off their 0.5 million workers after closure of tractor manufacturing units.

He said imposition of 16 percent General Sales Tax has not only ruined the tractor manufacturing industry but has also had fatal repercussions on the agri economy and engineering and vending industry. Hashmi pointed out that due to decline in tractor sales, the government is not getting any additional revenue, therefore it should immediately withdraw this tax to make cost of tractors affordable for overwhelming majority of small farmers who own less then 12 acres land. PAAPAM chairman warned that as tractors are of prime importance to the agricultural sector itself, the agriculture and rural economy would grossly suffer with dangerous consequences if the government did not take immediate remedial measures.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Poker Face on December 19, 2011, 11:30:07 AM
our stupid govt and insane policy makers.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: AGz on December 19, 2011, 02:25:54 PM
our stupid govt and insane policy makers.

Pakistan is an agriculture based country. It's main strength lies in its conglomerate divisions. I do not understand one thing that why would someone destroy a country's main power? Or how could someone be dumb enough not to care about it as well? The difference is of friend or foe. Seeing everything so far, one thing is clear; I haven't seen any friend of Pakistan yet let alone foes.  :mad:

When thugs leads the way, the followers are obliged to lose what they have.  :smilestar:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: GEMINI on December 19, 2011, 02:41:47 PM
It is never the activity of the rascals that destroy the society, but always the inactivity of the good people.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: AGz on December 19, 2011, 03:16:40 PM
It is never the activity of the rascals that destroy the society, but always the inactivity of the good people.

In other words, what I said!
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on December 19, 2011, 04:15:01 PM
Following INDU other carmakers (PSMC and HCAR) likely to increase car prices soon
December 19, 2011 10:04
 
According to a news report, following INDU, other carmakers (PSMC and HCAR) are likely to increase car prices soon (by 2%-3.5%) in order to pass on higher costs induced by PkR depreciation against the JPY.

Source:
here (http://research.akd-trade.com/News_Item_Description.asp?NID_TEXT=9510)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on January 12, 2012, 10:42:16 AM
Pakistan car sales up 20% in 1HFY12
Posted about 17 hours ago | 0 comment

ISLAMABAD,  Pakistan car sales during firs half of the current year (1HFY12) improved by healthy 20% to 81,931 units compared to 68,099 units in same period last year, says a press release issued here on Wednesday.

Apart from June-July deferred sales affect on account of reduce tax structure in Federal Budget, Yellow cab scheme announced by the Punjab government has also played its due rule in this volumetric growth.

In December, car sales dipped by 6% to 11,214 units compared to 11,924 units in preceding month as buyers prefer to defer orders due to year end phenomenon. However, sales in December showed a phenomenal growth of 25% as against the same month last year.

On company-wise basis, PSMC continued to show robust growth of 32% in 1HFY12 to 50,718 units versus 38,320 units seen in same period last year. This growth trajectory primarily stems from higher sales of Mehran and Bolan, up 47% and 36% respectively, on account of taxi scheme launched by Punjab government while comparatively new addition in PSMC product offering, Swift, also lend its due hand.

Swift sales increased by 2 folds to 3,247 units in the period under review while it is contributing 6% to overall PSMC volumetric sales. Overall, company has been able to improve its market share by 6pps to 62% in this period.

On the other hand Indus Motors sales grew by 7% to 24,066 units compared to 22,408 units in same period last year with company’s flag ship product Corrala depicting the same growth trend. Despite launch of new variants by the company in 1600cc segment and CNG vehicles (Eco), corolla sales showed declining trend on account of reduced farmer income amid falling cotton prices.

Despite recovery in volumetric sales, strained margins on account of continuous appreciation of Japanese yen and high regulatory risk we maintain Market-weight  stance on local assemblers.

Source:
click (http://www.onepakistan.com/finance/news/general/3357-pakistan-car-sales-up-20-in-1hfy12.html)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 12, 2012, 12:13:13 PM
1HFY12 auto sales up by 20% YoY to 81.9k units

According to the latest PAMA release, industry auto sales (car, LCV, and pickup) in the 1HFY12, improved by 20% YoY to 81.9k units. Industry car sales soared by 20.5% YoY to 71.9k units in 1HFY12. Total production of the auto sector also increased with the same pace of 20%YoY to 81.9k units during the period.

On MoM basis, total auto sales rose by 6% MoM to 11.2k units whereas sector production reduced by 6%MoM to 10.7k units during Dec-11. Honda Atlas Cars was unable to produce even single car during the month due to shutdown of the plant as recent flood in Thailand interrupted the supply of parts to the company. Company’s plant is expected to resume production as soon as supply of parts resumes, which is expected in Feb-12. However during Dec-11, in car segment, only Suzuki Mehran has managed to post a growth of 6% MoM to 2.9k units. Moreover, in LCV segment, Toyota Hilux and Suzuki Bolan grew by 237% MoM to 820 units and 44% MoM to 1.97k units, respectively in Dec-11.

PSMC remains chief beneficiary   

Pak Suzuki posted enormous growth of 32% YoY to 50.7k units on the back of 121% YoY growth in company’s Swift model, coupled with 47% YoY increase in Mehran, 26% YoY rise in Cultus and 18% YoY jump in Alto’s sales units during 1HFY12. Similarly, Indus Motor registered a growth of 7% YoY to 24.1k units in 1HFY12 where Corolla model was the major contributor towards the expanded sales of the company, with 7% YoY growth to 20k units. However, Honda Atlas Cars’ sales remained stagnant at 6.9k units during 1HFY12 due to suspended production owing the same interruption in supply of parts from Thailand owing to flood. Only PSMC managed to increase its market share by 560bpsYoY to 61.9% in 1HFY12 while INDU and HCAR market shares dropped by 350bps and 200bps YoY to 29.4% and 9.5% respectively.

Recommendation -  'Buy' INDU, 'Hold' PSMC

Rapidly increasing auto prices coupled with reduced farm income, following a declining trend in the commodity prices, are expected to be the major hurdles for auto sector growth. Moreover, continued depreciation of PKR against major currencies is expected to increase assemblers’ input costs, which would be passed on to customers that would impact car sales going forward. Thus, we believe FY12 could not be a healthy year for auto sector growth. Currently, INDU is trading at FY12 PE multiple of 6.76x and offering a DY of 6.4% while PSMC and HCAR are trading at 9.24x and 17.6x for FY12. We recommend 'Buy ' on INDU and HCAR while 'Hold' on PSMC with Dec-12 target prices of Rs268/sh, Rs14/sh and Rs66/sh respectively.

investcap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 12, 2012, 12:49:19 PM
Tractor Sales: Decline 61% YoY due to 16% GST
Tractor sales registered a massive decline of 61% YoY in its sales to 12,665 units
during 1HFY12 compared to 32,743 units in the corresponding period last year.
Agriauto (AGTL) posted 70% decline followed by Millat Tractors (MTL) which
posted 56% decline YoY. Non functioning of GoP tractor schemes and
unavailability of agri financing through ZTBL since the last two years and, above
all, 16% GST on tractors has disastrously hit the tractor industry where Millat
Tractors and Al Ghazi Tractor stopped their production of new units in Dec-11 on
the back of already standing inventories.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ihashishin on January 12, 2012, 01:44:58 PM
Pakistan’s Auto Sector: Car sales escalate by 20% YoY ( IGI )

·         According to statistics released by PAMA yesterday, auto sales remained buoyant in 1HFY12; escalating by 20%YoY to 81,483 units, up from 68,090 units in the corresponding period last year. On a sequential basis, sales declined by 6%MoM to 11,198 units in Dec’11 from 11,884 units in Nov’11.
·         Car Sales in Luxury segment (1300cc-1800cc) declined by 34% MoM, from 4,083 units to 2,680 units. This set back is chiefly entitled to year end phenomenon and disruptions in production of Honda models due to floods in Thailand.
·          4% volumetric growth in 800cc, from 2,911 to 3,041 units, is largely on the back of  the Punjab Taxi Scheme.
·         Volumetric sales in 1,000cc segment have shrunk by 17% MoM, from 2,235 units in Nov’11 to 1,844 units in Dec’11. In our view, this decline is expected to gravitate in coming months, until the quandary of CNG is resolved by the GoP.

Based on our macro-economic forecasts and industry analysis, we foresee overall sales to grow by 3% for FY12.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 13, 2012, 10:05:36 AM
Settlement of GST on tractors assured

 Our Staff Reporter | Business | From the Newspaper
 (1 hour ago) Today

Millat Tractors produced and sold 963 and 724 units of Massey Ferguson tractors in December 2011 as compared to 2,460 and 2,211 units in November 2011. Production and sales in July-December 2011 fell to 9,760 and 9,005 units as compared to 20,411 and 20,510 units in the corresponding period of 2010. - File photo

KARACHI: Federal Minister for Industries Chaudhry Pervez Elahi has assured the vendors and tractor makers of resolving the lingering issue of 16 per cent general sales tax as early as possible.

In a meeting with the delegation of Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM), led by its chairman Syed Nabeel Hashmi, held in Lahore on Thursday, the minister said he was fully aware of the situation.

Nabeel Hashmi told Dawn that the minister had assured the stakeholders of taking every step to restore the production activities.

The makers of Fiat tractors had already suspended its production from December 15, 2011, while the makers of Massey Ferguson tractors had partially resumed its production from January 10, 2012 after suspending production from December 20, 2011.According to figures of Pakistan Automotive ManufacturesAssociation (PAMA), only 47 tractors of Fiat were sold in December 2011 as compared to 1,414 units in November 2011. The makers of Fiat tractors (Al Ghazi) produced only 727 units in December 2011 as compared to 1,555 units in November 2011. T he July-December 2011 production and sales plunged to 3,663 and 3,660 units as compared to 12,308 and 12,233 units in the same period of 2010.

Millat Tractors produced and sold 963 and 724 units of Massey Ferguson tractors in December 2011 as compared to 2,460 and 2,211 units in November 2011. Production and sales in July-December 2011 fell to 9,760 and 9,005 units as compared to 20,411 and 20,510 units in the corresponding period of 2010.

Nabeel said that vendors and manufacturers had urged the minister to settle the GST issue on urgent basis so that farmers and growers could also resume their purchasing activities and the industry could restart its production at full capacity
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2012, 08:57:32 PM

New Year factor leads to 57% MoM improvement in auto sales

 Total cars and LCV sales improved by 17% YoY in 7MFY12 to 96,927 units whereas the sales improved by 57% MoM and 2% YoY in Jan12 to 14,983 units. The significant MoM growth is largely attributed to the New Year factor

PSMC sales improved by 33% to 60,159 in 7MFY12. Swift was the star performer with 95% YoY growth in 7MFY12 to 3,847 units followed by Bolan (up 43% YoY to 10,823 units). The company’s sales improved by 10% MoM and 9% YoY to 9,441 in Jan12

INDU sales improved by 4% to 29,462 units in 7MFY12. Corolla sales were up 5% YoY to 24,885 units. The company’s sales improved by 147% MoM and 15% YoY to 5,396 in Jan12

We maintain our Underweight stance on the sector

bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ihashishin on February 13, 2012, 01:02:07 PM
Pakistan’s Auto Sector: Car sales escalate by 20% YoY ( IGI )

·         According to statistics released by PAMA yesterday, auto sales remained buoyant in 1HFY12; escalating by 20%YoY to 81,483 units, up from 68,090 units in the corresponding period last year. On a sequential basis, sales declined by 6%MoM to 11,198 units in Dec’11 from 11,884 units in Nov’11.
·         Car Sales in Luxury segment (1300cc-1800cc) declined by 34% MoM, from 4,083 units to 2,680 units. This set back is chiefly entitled to year end phenomenon and disruptions in production of Honda models due to floods in Thailand.
·          4% volumetric growth in 800cc, from 2,911 to 3,041 units, is largely on the back of  the Punjab Taxi Scheme.
·         Volumetric sales in 1,000cc segment have shrunk by 17% MoM, from 2,235 units in Nov’11 to 1,844 units in Dec’11. In our view, this decline is expected to gravitate in coming months, until the quandary of CNG is resolved by the GoP.

Based on our macro-economic forecasts and industry analysis, we foresee overall sales to grow by 3% for FY12.

Pakistan’s Auto Sector: Car sales escalate by 17% YoY ( IGI )

.    According to statistics released by PAMA on Friday, cumulative auto sales for period of 7MFY12 increased to 96,712 units, compared to 82,767 units in the corresponding period last year, depicting an increase of 17%YoY.
.    On a sequential basis, sales escalated by 2.15%MoM to 14,983 units in Jan12 from 11,227 units in Dec11.
.    PSMC has gained market share of 62% in 7MFY12 compared to 55% in the corresponding period last year. 33%YoY volumetric growth in sales of PSMC, to 60,159 units in 7MFY12 from 45,113 units in the same period last year, is largely backed by the Punjab Taxi Scheme.
.    Market share of INDU declined to 30% for the period of 7MFY12, compared to 34% in the corresponding period last year. However, company has maintained its highest market share of 80% in the luxury segment. On sequential basis, sales jumped to 4,865 Corolla units in Jan12 from 2,153 units in Dec11, an increase of 126%MoM.
.    Based on our macro economic forecasts and industry analysis, we expect overall auto sales to grow by 3% for FY12. PSMC sales are likely to grow on the back of Punjab Taxi Scheme; however, a cut back in sales can be expected due to increasing CNG issues. INDU sales growth is expected to remain flat on account of lower farm income and impact of CNG issues on its new CNG variants of Corolla.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 08, 2012, 11:57:40 AM
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down 6% against the
US$ since Feb 1, 2012, largely owing to the
monetary easing by the Bank of Japan and the Euro
zone’s agreement on a Greek rescue package.
Similarly, JPY has depreciated by 5% against PKR.
We believe this bodes well for the local auto
assemblers as most of their auto parts are sourced in
from Japan. After tracing recent price hikes by local auto
assemblers against PKR/JPY parity, we contend the recent
reversal of JPY could see substantial improvement in the
margins of the auto companies, if prices remain unchanged.
Simultaneously, we upgrade our earnings estimates for Indus
Motors (INDU) by 14-7% for FY12E-13F and raise our target
price to Rs273. We recommend a ‘Buy’ on INDU, while
maintain a ‘Hold’ stance on Pak Suzuki (PSMC).

Price hikes follows drop in value of PKR vs. JPY
INDU has raised its product prices thrice (last in Feb 2012)
since September 2011, while PSMC has increased prices
twice (last Dec 2011) in the same period. In Sept-2011, the
two manufacturers had raised prices by an average 2.5% to
offset a 3.2% fall in value of PKR vs. JPY from their last price
hike. Similarly in Dec-2011, prices were increased by an
average 1.5% to compensate the decline of 1.8% in PKR/JPY
parity. However, only INDU hiked its prices by an average
2.2% in Feb-2012 owing to a 2.8% depreciation of PKR vs.
JPY. Hence, we contend that the recent fall in value of JPY
vs. PKR by 5% since Feb 1, 2012 should result in improved
margins for the auto company, particularly in 4QFY12 if prices
remain unchanged.

Earnings estimates raised by 14-7% for INDU
We raise our earnings estimates for INDU by 14-7% for
FY12E-13F, following its impressive 1HFY12 result. We now
expect the company to post earnings of Rs42.5/share and
Rs43.7/share in FY12E and FY13F, respectively.
We have tweaked up our assumption for unit sales by 13% to
54k units as the company has benefited from the recent
shutdown in production facility of Honda Car due to its
sourcing issues. Further, we expect gross margins to settle at
7.9% in FY12 vs. our earlier assumption of 7.7%. As a result,
our target price has also been revised upwards to Rs273,
offering a potential upside of 15% along with a dividend yield
of 8.4%. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ call on the stock.

Auto sector: ‘Market Weight’ maintained
We expect the local auto industry’s sales to grow by 17% to
172k units aided by strong home remittances and the Yellow
Cab scheme offered by the Punjab government. The recent
weakening of JPY vs. PKR also bodes well for the sector.
However, the ban by the government on CNG fitted vehicles
and budgetary proposals to allow commercial imports up to
10 years of age are key concerns for the sector. We maintain
our ‘Market-Weight’ stance on the sector. INDU remains our
top pick from the sector, while we recommend a ‘Hold’ stance
on PSMC.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 09, 2012, 06:35:44 PM
Auto sales strong and steady, up 12%YoY in Feb 2012
???? Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) released the auto sales data for the
month of February 2012.
???? In Feb-2012, the auto industry registered a growth of 12%YoY. We attribute this strong growth to
rise in home remittances and the Yellow Cab scheme offered by the Punjab government. However
compared to the previous month of Jan-2012, unit sales remained flat (MoM). Historically, higher
sales have been witnessed in January due to the New Year effect.
???? Company-wise breakup shows, Pak Suzuki led the way with a growth of 44%YoY owing to the
Yellow Cab Scheme. Recall that the Punjab government had short listed PSMC’s Mehran and
Bolan for this concessional scheme. Indus Motor (INDU) posted a modest growth of 4%YoY
mainly due to capacity constraints, while Honda Car (HCAR) sales declined by 98%YoY because
of shutdown of its plant amid its supply parts sourcing issues.
???? Cumulatively in 8MFY12, local auto industry grew by 16%YoY. The growth was led by PSMC (up
35%YoY) followed by INDU (up 4%YoY). PSMC’s remains the market leader with a share of 63%,
while INDU’s share stands at 31%.
???? We maintain our auto sales target of 172k units for FY12, which will be up by 17% from last year.
However, the ban by the government on CNG fitted vehicles and budgetary proposals to allow
commercial imports up to 10 years of age are key concerns for the sector. We maintain our
‘Market-Weight’ stance on the sector. INDU remains our top pick from the sector, while we
recommend a ‘Hold’ stance on PSMC.

Auto sales
Units 8MFY12 8MFY11 YoY % ? Feb-12 Feb-11 YoY % ? Feb-12 Jan-12 MoM % ?
Indus Motor 3 4,366 3 2,991 4% 4,904 4,698 4% 4,904 5,396 -9%
Pak Suzuki 7 0,162 5 2,067 35% 10,003 6,954 44% 10,003 9,441 6%
Honda Car 7 ,024 1 0,444 -33% 33 1,665 -98% 33 130 -75%
Ind. cars 8 5,539 7 5,573 13% 11,351 10,576 7% 11,351 11,150 2%
Ind. Lcvs 2 6,350 2 0,569 28% 3,611 2,799 29% 3,611 3,833 -6%
Ind. Lcvs & cars 1 11,889 9 6,142 16% 14,962 13,375 12% 14,962 14,983 0%
Source: PAMA

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 12, 2012, 11:18:51 AM
Strong PSMC sales lift Feb?12 numbers
As per the latest PAMA data for the month of Feb, sales of locally assembled cars and LCVs
improved by 11.9% YoY to 14,983 units where PSMC was the sole growth driver with 43.8% YoY
jump to 10,003 units. The company’s small cars segment remained the star performer where we
believe orders and deliveries peaking out before it stops delivery of CNG fitted vehicles remains
the key factor. Recall that PSMC has already stopped booking of CNG variant vehicles (~80% of
volumes previously) from mid?Feb whose effect should be visible in 2QCY sales. Meanwhile,
Indus sales performance remained below par with 4.4% YoY growth to 4,904 units during the
month. HCAR, meanwhile, kept its plant shut for the 3rd consecutive month due to disruption in
parts supplies from Thailand post floods. On a positive note, the recent Govt. decision to reduce
GST rate on agriculture tractors from 16% to 5% has played well as tractor sales recovered from
the low of 369 units in Jan?12 to 8,906 units in Feb?12.

Units Feb?12 Feb?11 YoY Jan?12 MoM 8MFY12 8MFY11 YoY
Pak Suzuki 10,003 6,954 43.8% 9,441 6.0% 70,162 52,067 34.8%
Indus 4,904 4,698 4.4% 5,396 ?9.1% 34,366 32,991 4.2%
Honda Atlas 33 1,665 ?98.0% 130 ?74.6% 7,024 10,444 ?32.7%
Others 22 58 ?62.2% 16 37.5% 337 640 ?47.4%
Total ? sales 14,962 13,375 11.9% 14,983 ?0.1% 111,889 96,142 16.4%
? Cars 11,351 10,576 7.3% 11,150 1.8% 85,539 75,573 13.2%
? LCVs + 4x4 3,611 2,799 29.0% 3,833 ?5.8% 26,350 20,569 28.1%
Tractors 8,906 7,103 25.4% 369 N/M 21,940 45,519 ?51.8%
Source: PAMA.

Expect soft 2HFY12 sales showing
Despite encouraging YoY numbers, we expect softer sales going forward on (1) weak agriculture
income and (2) effect of ban on CNG vehicles coming into play. While sales improved by 6.8%
YoY during Jan?Feb 2012, we expect these to weaken going forward and remain flattish YoY
during 2HFY12 as effect of CNG ban becomes fully visible.

We are Underweight on Autos; only upside from stable Yen at current level
We reiterate Underweight on automakers as we expect weakness in sales to trickle down to
their profitability. We have a Neutral rating on Indus with PO of PRs250/sh and an
Underperform rating on PSMC with PO of PRs60/sh. Indus is trading at FY12 P/E of 5.2x and
offers 9.2% D/Y and 8% upside to our PO. On the upside, we flag (1) Rupee/Yen parity stabilizing
at current levels (PRs1.11/Yen) and (2) PSMC’s normalizing deliveries for Punjab Govt taxi
scheme as the key risk to our thesis.

INDU valuation matrix
YE: Jun 10A 11A 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 43.8 34.9 45.9 60.8
DPS (PRs) 15.0 15.0 22.0 35.0
P/E (x) 5.5 6.9 5.2 3.9
D/Y (%) 6.3% 6.3% 9.2% 15%
P/B (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0
Source: INDU, KASB Research.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec CY10 C’11E C’12E C’13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 12.5 11.4 12.0
DPS (PRs) 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
P/E (x) 23.9 4.9 5.4 5.1
D/Y (%) 0.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
P/B (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Source: PSMC, KASB Research.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 12, 2012, 02:38:41 PM
AKD Daily

Auto sales rise 16%YoY in 8MFY12 to 112k units

According to the latest numbers released by the PAMA, auto sales in the country rose by an encouraging 16%YoY to 112k units in 8MFY12. Auto sales growth was underpinned by strong car sales (+17%YoY to 98k units) and 11%YoY growth in LCV unit sales. On a company wise basis, PSMC recorded the highest sales growth during the period under review with sales rising 35%YoY to 70k units while tractor sales recovered strongly after the reduction in GST to 5% and resumption in agri loans by ZTBL.

Auto sales up 16%YoY: According to the latest numbers released by the PAMA, auto sales in the country rose by an encouraging 16%YoY to 112k units in 8MFY12. Auto sales growth was underpinned by strong car sales (+17%YoY to 98k units) and 11%YoY growth in LCV unit sales. Amongst the 'Car' sales, most of the growth in sales accrued from the 800cc and 1000cc categories with growth up by 30%YoY and 35%YoY, respectively, while sales of the 1300cc and above category were relatively flat (+1%YoY), which was most likely due to lower sales of HCAR (production disruption following the Thailand floods). Auto sales for the month of Feb'12 stood at 15k units, which were up by 11%YoY, largely due to 12%YoY growth in 'Car' sales.

PSMC tops sales growth in 8MFY12: On a company wise basis, PSMC recorded the highest sales growth during the period under review with sales rising 35%YoY to 70k units. All of PSMC's models with the exception of Liana recorded double digit sales growth in 8MFY12. Mehran and Bolan sales (both beneficiaries of the Govt. of Punjab Yellow Cab scheme) were up 37%YoY and 47%YoY, respectively, to 22.5k units and 12.7k units, while Ravi sales also rose by 8%YoY to 10.7k units. While PSMC sales have benefited from the Yellow Cab scheme, the ban on CNG kit imports will impact the company sales the most given its concentration in the lower engine size/economy class categories. INDU sales for 8MFY12 grew at a moderate pace of 4%YoY to 34k units, with sales growth largely driven by Corolla (+6%YoY to 29k units). HCAR sales in 8MFY12 fell sharply by 33%YoY to 7k units, with sales in Feb'12 plunging to just 33 units as HCAR's production had yet to restart following the Thailand floods.         .

Tractor sales up sharply in Feb'12: Tractor sales recovered strongly after the reduction in GST to 5% and resumption in agri loans by ZTBL. Sales for Feb'12 surged to the highest ever monthly level of 8.9k units. Recall, tractor sales had plunged following the imposition of 16% GST in federal budget FY12, because of which cumulative sales for 8MFY12 are down by 52%YoY to 21.9k units.

Outlook: Automobile manufacturers are in for challenging times in the near term, particularly for the economy segment as i) surging petrol prices, ii) ban on CNG kits imports and iii) rising CBU imports (+170%YoY to US$284mn in 7MFY12) are likely to pressurize sales going forward. Furthermore, weakening of farmer economics (lower cotton and wheat prices) would also subdue demand from the rural sector. While the recent fall in JPY is a slight palliative for the sector, we believe that revival in auto financing seems to us as the only real demand driver for local autos going forward.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on April 12, 2012, 01:06:56 PM
Auto sales recorded a somewhat subdued growth of
6%YoY in March 2012 vs. a rise of 15%YoY during
9MFY12. However on a MoM basis, sales increased
by 11% led by HCAR (up 2855%) following
resumption of its production facility during the month.
We contend an improvement in 3Q profits compared
to 2Q of the auto manufacturers on the back of
22%QoQ growth in unit sales and price hikes in Sept 2011,
Dec 2011 and Feb 2012. We downgrade our investment call
on Indus Motor (INDU) to ‘Hold’, as the stock now offers an
upside of 5% to our target price of Rs273. We also maintain
our ‘Hold’ recommendation on Pak Suzuki (PSMC).

Auto sales
Units 9MFY12 9MFY11 YoY % ?
Indus Motor 38,858 37,259 4%
Pak Suzuki 81,360 61,693 32%
Honda Car 7,999 12,114 -34%
Industry cars 97,573 87,540 11%
Industry Lcvs 30,994 24,312 27%
Industry Lcvs & cars 128,567 111,852 15%
Source: PAMA
Auto sales
Units Mar-12 YoY % ? MoM % ?
Indus Motor 4492 5% -8%
Pak Suzuki 11198 16% 12%
Honda Car 975 -42% 2855%
Industry cars 12034 1% 6%
Industry Lcvs 4644 24% 29%
Industry Lcvs & cars 16678 6% 11%
Source: PAMA

Growth cools down to 6%YoY in March
Auto sales registered a subdued growth of 6%YoY in March
2012 vs. an increase of 15%YoY in 9MFY12. To recall, the
auto industry had witnessed double digit growths in six out of
the previous eight months of FY12. Lower production level of
Honda Car (HCAR) is the main reason for the slowdown in
growth, in our view. PSMC witnessed the sharpest increase of
16%YoY owing to the availability of Punjab government’s
Yellow Cab Scheme, while INDU sales increased by 5%YoY.
Higher sales & margin growth to boost 3Q profits
We contend an improvement in earnings of the auto
manufacturers in 3Q vs. 2Q on the back of 22%QoQ rise in
industry unit sales. INDU and PSMC sales during the period
under review have increased by 32%QoQ and 26%QoQ,
respectively. Moreover, 3Q results will reflect price hikes by
the manufacturers in Sept 2011, Dec 2011 and Feb 2012.
Recall that in Sept-2011 and Dec 2011, the two
manufacturers had raised prices by an average 2.5% and
1.5%, respectively. In Feb 2012, INDU hiked prices by an
average 2.2%. On the other hand, PKR has depreciated by
an average 0.7%QoQ in 3Q. We expect INDU to post 3Q
earnings of ~Rs14.5/share (up 37%QoQ).

Outlook: Positives mostly priced in
We maintain our industry sales growth target of 172k units (up
17%YoY) for FY12 aided by strong home remittances and the
Yellow Cab scheme. Further, the recent appreciation of PKR
vs. JPY (6% since Feb) also bodes well for the sector going
forward. With the federal budget closing in, budgetary
proposal to allow commercial imports up to 10 years is a key
concern for the sector. We maintain our ‘Market-Weight’
outlook on the sector. We downgrade our stance on INDU to
‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ earlier, as the stock now offers an upside of
only 5% to our target price of Rs273. However, we highlight a
potential upgrade in earnings estimates and target price
following its 3Q result announcement. We maintain our ‘Hold’
recommendation on PSMC.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Dhillon on May 05, 2012, 07:35:26 AM
Imported luxury car dealers may hear good news in budget

ISLAMABAD: Users and dealers of imported luxury cars might have good news in the Budget 2012/13, sources said on Friday.
The top three automobiles falling in the category of super, semi and smaller luxury cars might be cheaper, if the proponents of slashing duties and taxes on their import get their plea heard positively at the budget-making desks, the sources told The News.
If they do, the duty of 2001and above cc would be reduced from the current levy of 100 percent plus 50 percent Regulatory Duty to just 80 percent import duty.
The duty of up to 2000 cc cars would be slashed from the current 100 percent Customs to 70 percent Customs Duty.
The 75 percent import duty levied currently on the cars of up to 1500 cc would be reduced to 60 percent.
However, the smaller CC cars users would not be obliged. The import duty proposal on these (up to 1000 CC) cars is to retain the presently levied 50 percent Customs Duty.
It was in the Budget 2011-12 Budget that a proposal for luxury cars (1800cc) was made, but not given.
The proponents stressed that regulatory duty and an import duty be slashed. They also proposed that regulatory duty and an import duty cut on 1500-1800cc cars be from 75 percent to 65 percent.

The News
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 12, 2012, 11:07:52 PM
Auto Sales up 14% YoY in 10MFY12

          Total Car and LCV sales witnessed a growth of 14% YoY to 143,009 units during 10MFY12 compared to 125,102 units sold in the same period last year

          Growth in sales was primarily led by Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) with 30% YoY uptick to 90,197 units followed by Indus Motor (INDU), up 5%YoY to 44,061 units. Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) recorded a decline of 36% YoY to 8,751 units during the period

          Suzuki’s Bolan stayed the star performer posting 49% YoY growth to 17,284 units in 10MFY12 followed by Mehran, up 38% to 28,849 units. Alto sales were up 22% YoY to 12,833 units whereas Cultus reported  18% YoY growth to 11,309 units in 10MFY12. The new Swift also showed an impressive  80% growth to 5,909 units in the same period.

          INDU’s Corolla posted 7% YoY growth to 37,245 units. Hilux recorded impressive 64% YoY growth to 3,317 units whereas Cuore posted a decline of 30% YoY in 10MFY12

          Apr12 industry sales clocked in at 14,792 units, 7% higher YoY and 11% lower MoM.  PSMC witnessed a growth of 18% YoY with 8,837 units sold during the month whereas INDU sales grew by 11% YoY to 5,203 units

          Tractor sales posted a hefty decline of 38% YoY in 10MFY12  to 34,464 units on the back of 1) lower farm incomes and 2) plant shutdowns during Dec- Jan 2012.  However, April sales showed a pick up of 15% YoY to 6,295 units

bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 14, 2012, 01:38:34 PM
In hope of relaxation on imported vehicles in the
upcoming Federal Budget, local auto sales in April
2012 witnessed a decline of 11%MoM. Nevertheless,
the subsidized Yellow Cab scheme along with strong
growth in home remittances resulted in a growth of
6%YoY. Resultantly, sales growth during 10MFY12
clocked in at 14%YoY largely inline with our full year
growth estimate of 17%. Indus Motors (INDU) defied
industry’s sequential decline in April, as it emerged as the
only manufacturer to post positive growth at 16%MoM. Pak
Suzuki (PSMC) sales declined by 21%MoM. We maintain our
‘Market-Weight’ outlook on the sector, with Hold calls on both
INDU and PSMC.

Industry sales falls 11%MoM in Apr; INDU’s up 16%
Whilst the overall industry sales in April 2012 declined by
11%MoM in anticipation of relaxation on imported vehicles in
the upcoming budget; INDU posted an impressive growth of
16%MoM. The rise in manufacturer’s sales was largely driven
by an increase of 17%MoM in sales of Corolla. On the other
hand, PSMC’s sales declined by 21%MoM, which we also
attribute to the ban imposed on CNG fitted vehicles by the
government.

Auto sales
Units Apr-12 Apr-11 YoY
% ? Mar-12 MoM
% ?
Indus Motor 5,203 4,681 11% 4,492 16%
Pak Suzuki 8,837 7,510 18% 11,198 -21%
Honda Car 752 1,640 -54% 975 -23%
Industry cars 11,224 10,871 3% 12,034 -7%
Industry Lcvs 3,574 3,035 18% 4,644 -23%
Industry Lcvs & cars 14,798 13,906 6% 16,678 -11%
Source: PAMA

However, the subsidized Yellow Cab scheme provided by the
Punjab government and strong growth in home remittances
(up 20%YoY in 10MFY12) resulted in a 6%YoY growth over
April 2011.

Auto sales
Units 10MFY12 10MFY11 YoY % ?
Indus Motor 4 4,061 4 1,940 5%
Pak Suzuki 9 0,197 6 9,203 30%
Honda Car 8,751 1 3,754 -36%
Industry cars 1 08,797 9 8,411 11%
Industry Lcvs 3 4,568 2 7,347 26%
Industry Lcvs & cars 1 43,365 1 25,758 14%
Source: PAMA

Outlook: Uncertainty until budget announcement
The auto sales growth of 14%YoY in 10MFY12, remains
largely inline with our full year growth forecast of 17%.
Looking ahead, we see uncertainty over relaxation on
imported vehicles in the upcoming Federal Budget and the
new auto policy (AIDP-2) to keep investor cautious in the
sector, despite the sector’s impressive earnings growth
(118%YoY in Jan-Mar 2012). PKR-JPY has also seen a slight
reversal, rising to Rs1.14 from its recent low of Rs1.08. We
remain ‘Market-Weight’ on the sector, with ‘Hold’ calls on both
INDU and PSMC.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 14, 2012, 01:41:17 PM
PSMC: Demand still strong despite ease in growth momentum
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) maintained its prominent position
in the sector with a market share of 63% in 10MFY12, as opposed to 55% last year.
This is due to a 30% YoY improvement in sales during the period under review to
90,197 units. The Company is reaping the dividends of a diverse product base with
sales of Swift, Cultus, and Alto growing by 80% YoY, 18% YoY and 22% YoY
respectively. PSMC has also benefitted from the Punjab Government’s Cab
Scheme, which has resulted in sales of Mehran and Bolan to increase by 38% YoY
and 49% YoY. Total units sold by the company in Apr-12 however, declined by 21%
MoM to 8,837 units. Lower farm incomes due to commencement of Kharif sowing
season is one of the major reasons for this decline. On a YoY basis, this figure is
18% higher than Apr-11’s sales of 7,510 units.

INDU:Sales volumes increase by modest 5% YoY
Sales of Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU)increased by a modest 5% YoY
during 10MFY12 44,061 units. Amongst INDU’s various models, Hilux has remained
at the forefront (with respect to sales growth), and its sales are higher by 64% YoY
to 3,317 units in 10MFY12. A low base effect and launch of new models are the
main reasons behind this performance. Sale of Corolla during 10MFY12 increased
by 7% YoY to 37,245 units. On a MoM basis, sales of the flagship brand have
jumped by 17% to 4,431 units in Apr-12. Management’s decision of discontinuing
production of Coure during FY12 has led to a 30% YoY decline in sales volume
during 10MFY12 to 3,499 units.

HCAR: Monthly sales decline no reason to fret
Monthly sales of Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) have declined by 23%
MoM to 752 units in Apr-12. The decline is despite the resumption of production of
the Company’s ‘City’ model after a four month hiatus, and can be attributed to a
high base effect caused by restart of Civic’s production line last month. The
suspension of production was due to floods affecting its parts supplier in Thailand
last year.

Tractors:Sales steady after reduction of GST
The country’s tractor industry grew by a marginal 1% MoM to 6,295 units in Apr-12.
In 10MFY12, the sector registered a sales contraction of 38% YoY to 34,484 units.
The decline is on account of the imposition of GST last year, which resulted in
demand for the product drying and production being suspended as a consequence.
Company-wise analysis shows that Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited (AGTL) registered
MoM sales growth of 3% to 2,290 units. In 10MFY12, the Company sold 11,974
units, 48% YoY lower than that in the corresponding period last year. The sector’s
other major operator, Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) meanwhile failed to show any
sales growth in Apr-12, which remained stagnant at 4,005 units. In 10MFY12,
MTL’s sales contracted by 32% YoY to 22,510 units. As per available details of a
recently held meeting between the Engineering Development Board (EDB) and
stakeholders of the auto industry, the CBU duty on tractors is likely to be enhanced
to 10% in the upcoming Auto Industry Development Plan (AIDP) 2012-22.

Regulatory outlook
With the current AIDP set to expire by Jun-12, all stakeholders concerned are
scrambling to get on the same page with respect to the formulation of the new
AIDP 2012-22. Available reports suggest that duty on import of CBUs of
motorcycles under the new policy is likely to be around 50%, while duty on CKDs is
expected to be between 20-30%. Meanwhile, CBU duty on all vehicles (ex tractors
and motorcycles) is likely to stand around 45%, with an EDB proposal to reduce it
further over a four year period.

ahl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Dhillon on May 14, 2012, 02:15:45 PM
Auto sector: Sales grew by 14%YoY in 10MFY12                                                          Written as on May 14, 2012

Highlights

            •         Auto sales: Reflection of restrict CNG kits

            •         PSMC: Introducing EFi variants from Jul-12

            •         Recommendation - ‘Hold’ PSMC & ‘Sell’ INDU

 

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released the automobile production and sales figures for Apr-12. In today's Value Seeker, we present an analysis of the local automobiles production and sales performance for Apr-12 as well as 10MFY12 period coupled with our recommendation on the scrips.

Auto sales: Reflection of restricted CNG kits during Apr-12

On MoM Basis, auto sales slid by 11%MoM in Apr-12 to only 14.8k units. The companies stopped the booking of CNG variants therefore PSMC's sales declined by a significant 21%MoM to 8.8k units. 

Auto sales (cars, jeeps, LCVs) increased by 14%YoY to 143.4k units during 10MFY12. Whereas car and LCV & Jeeps posted a growth of 14.6%YoY to 126.1k units and 9.4%YoY to 17.3k units. The measures were taken by the government regarding the ban on imports of CNG kits in order to divert natural gas back towards power and fertilizer sectors.

800cc and 1000cc cars segments were the major contributor with sales improving by 32%YoY to 49.6k units and 20%YoY to 24.1k units, respectively. However, 1300cc and above car segment's growth was flat while still contributed 36% to the total sales volumes.

PSMC: Introducing EFi variants from Jul-12

Pak Suzuki is planning to replace its existing direct fuel injection variants with the Eletronic Fuel Injection (EFi) variants from July 12 with the premium of ~Rs50k/unit. In the absence of CNG variants the EFi variants will attract the buyer's attention as they don't have any other choice except to buy these variants. Moreover, Pak Suzuki Motors Company Limited (PSMC) is still the market leader in term of sales volume registering a growth of 30%YoY in total sales volume to 90.2k units during 10MFY12. In car segment, Suzuki Swift posted a massive growth of 80%YoY to 5.9k units. Moreover, Mehran and Cultus also contributed significantly with the growth of 38%YoY to 28.8k units and 18%YoY to 11.3k units, respectively. In the LCVs segment, both variants, Bolan and Ravi, posted a massive growth of 49%YoY to 17.3k units and 6%YoY to 13.6k units, respectively. Indus Motor Limited (INDU) also managed to improve its unit sales by 5%YoY to 44.1k units in 10MFY12. Its variant, Hilux, played a major role with sales rising by 64%YoY to 3.3k units whereas it's another variant, Corolla, also posted a growth of 7.0%YoY to 37.2k units. Honda Cars Limited (HCAR) was unable to perform well during 10FY12 as the company's sales declined by a massive 36%YoY to 8.8k units. Worst, company's both variants, City and Civic models' sales were also down 45%YoY to 4.4k units and 25% to 4.3k units, respectively during 10MFY10.

Recommendation -  'Hold' PSMC, 'Sell' INDU

Currently, Indus Motor is trading at a PE of 6.5x and 6.9x with a dividend yield of 6.8% and 6.3% for FY12E and FY13E respectively. Its competitor, Pak Suzuki, is trading at a PE of 6.2x and 6.8x with a dividend yield of 4.1% and 3.7% for CY12 and CY13 respectively. At present, we recommend 'Sell' on INDU and 'Hold' on PSMC with Jun-12 TPs of Rs268 and Rs93per share.

Invest Cap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 16, 2012, 12:11:59 PM
AKD Daily

Autos: 10MFY12 Sales up by 14.6%YoY

According to recent statistics released by PAMA, sales volumes of the auto industry (Cars & LCVs) have grown up by 14%YoY in 10MFY12 to 143,365 units. Cars sales depicted a growth of 14.6%YoY to 126,081 units in the review period. On a sequential basis, industry volumes were down by 11%MoM while car segment sales were down 8%MoM in Apr'12. We attribute the decline in sales volume in the month of Apr'12 to possible FY13 Budget measures where news flow points towards 1) reduction in import duties of CBUs and 2) relaxation in age limits for imported vehicles.                .

Regulatory threat: genuine or overplayed? Auto manufacturers are passing through a tense phase as they are facing multiple threats on the regulatory front which include i) potential for relaxation in age limit for imported cars in the upcoming budget coupled with duty reduction and ii) implementation of AIDP-II, which is primarily aimed at rationalizing the prices of locally made cars via reduction in protection duties and as well as decrease in tariff slabs for imported CBUs; in order to make the industry more competitive. At present, the three major OEMs operating in Pakistan (PSMC, INDU and HCAR) are all of Japanese origin, where by way of background, the OEMs enjoy significant bargaining power as Japan is a hefty unilateral donor to Pakistan. At the same time, the OEMs and the related downstream vendor industry are important employers as well. In a nutshell, while the FY13 Budget may potentially contain a few negatives for the auto sector (possible relaxation in age limits), we expect the GoP to stop short of taking extreme measures. Furthermore, while AIDP-II would be beneficial for the Pakistani auto consumers, failure of the first AIDP policy does raise question marks on the implementation risk of AIDP-II.

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC): Being the market leader in sales volume, in 10MFY12 PSMC was the major contributor in industry sales volume by posting sales of 90,197 units, up 30%YoY. Mehran and Bolan have shown increase of 38%YoY and 50%YoY, respectively, in 10MFY12 mostly generated by Govt. of Punjab Taxi scheme (shown in the graph), while Swift sales increased by a robust 80%YoY to 5,909 units. In Apr'12, sales volume of the company recorded 8,837 units, down by 21%MoM.

Indus Motor Company (INDU): With introduction of new Corolla Altis and Hilux Vigo Champ, the company has posted 5.1%YoY growth in 10MFY12 while MoM sales have increased by 16% to 5,203 units. In 10MFY12, Corolla has recorded sales of 37,245 units up 6.6%YoY, Coure 3,499 units, down by 30%YoY while Hilux has recorded sales of 3,317 units in the review period, up a robust growth of 64%YoY.

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR): HCAR recorded sales of 8,751 units in 10MFY12, down 36%YoY, and 752 units in Apr'12 down 23%MoM. This was because production was discontinued across Dec'11-Feb'12 for Civic and Dec'11-Mar'12 for City. After restart of production, Civic and City sales were 597 units and 155 units, respectively, in Apr'12.

Tractors: Local tractors Fiat (AGTL) and Massey Ferguson (MTL) jointly recorded sales of 34,464 units in 10MFY12, down 38%YoY, and 6,295 units in Apr'12. AGTL with the sales of Fiat recorded sales of 11,954 units and MTL with the sales of Massey Ferguson recorded sales of 22,510 units in 10MFY12, down 47%YoY and 32%YoY, respectively. These large YoY declines are primarily due to earlier imposition of 16% GST on tractors (now reduced to 5%)..
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on June 12, 2012, 11:27:46 AM
Auto sales recorded an impressive growth of
12%MoM in May 2012. Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales
improved by an exciting 20%MoM as the company
seem to fill the remaining orders under the Yellow
Cab scheme. Resultantly, sales growth for 11MFY12
clocked in at 15%YoY, which is largely inline with our
full year growth forecast of 17%. Looking ahead,
Punjab government has made Yellow Cab scheme part of its
budget for next year as well, with details expected to be
released shortly. We maintain our ‘Market-Weight’ outlook on
the sector. However we raise our recommendation on PSMC
to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’, while maintain our ‘Hold’ call on Indus
Motors (INDU).

Auto sales
Units May-12 May-11 YoY% ? Apr-12 MoM% ? 11MFY12 YoY% ?
Indus Motor 4,846 4,205 15% 5 ,203 -7% 48,907 6%
Pak Suzuki 10,608 7,977 33% 8 ,837 20% 100,805 31%
Honda Car 1,150 944 22% 752 53% 9,901 -33%
Ind. cars 12,431 10,177 22% 1 1,224 11% 121,228 12%
Ind. Lcvs 4,179 3,035 38% 3 ,574 17% 38,747 27%
Lcvs/cars 16,610 13,212 26% 1 4,798 12% 159,975 15%
Source: PAMA

Auto sales up 12%MoM; PSMC outshines others
Auto sales growth in May 2012 clocked in at 12%MoM. The
growth was primarily driven by 20%MoM higher sales of
PSMC. The company sales appear to have benefited from an
improved power situation, resulting in the completion of the
remaining orders under the Yellow Cab scheme announced
last year by the Punjab government. On the other hand,
INDU’s sales declined by 7%MoM. Lower sales by the
company were largely due to phasing out of Cuore, with its
sales declining by 80%MoM.

Yellow cab for next year; AIDP-2 expected soon
The Punjab government has made Yellow Cab scheme part
of its next year’s budget as well. Recall that the Punjab
government offered 20k units of Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki
Bolan on concessional rates under this scheme. Details for
this year’s scheme are likely to be announced soon. A similar
scheme could result in a likely earnings upside of ~11%
(Rs2.2/share) for PSMC for 2012. Moreover, the upcoming
announcement of the long term auto policy (AIDP-2) will be
crucial for the sector, going forward. Significantly lower duties
on CBU imports in the policy can substantially hurt the local
manufacturers. While we retain our ‘Market-Weight’ outlook
on the sector; our recommendation on PSMC has been
upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ while we maintain our ‘Hold’
stance on INDU.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on June 12, 2012, 01:43:00 PM
AKD Daily

Autos: 11MFY12 Industry sales up 15%YoY

According to recent statistics released by PAMA, sales volumes of the auto industry (Cars & LCVs) have grown by 15.1%YoY in 11MFY12 to 159,975 units. Car sales showed a growth of 16.1%YoY to 141,015 units in the review period. On a sequential basis, industry volumes for May’12 were up by 12.2%MoM while car segment sales was also up by 11.8%MoM. Seasonal uptick coupled with ramping up of production of HCAR’s City model boosted car sales in May’12, where HCAR sales for the month were up by a significant 52.9%MoM.

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC): PSMC posted the highest growth in sales during 11MFY12, with total sales of 100,805 units, up 30.6%YoY. Similarly, PSMC’s market share during the review period has also increased to 63% from 56% last year. Mehran and Bolan have shown increase of 39.4%YoY and 53.8%YoY, respectively in 11MFY12 with sales boosted by the Govt. of Punjab Taxi scheme, while Swift is also gaining traction with sales rising by 67.3%YoY to 6,412 units. In May'12, sales of the company were recorded at 10,608 units, up 20%MoM. With the announcement of the Provincial Budget of Punjab for FY13, the Punjab Government has stated to continue the Yellow Cab scheme into FY13 and in this regard will distribute another 20,000 yellow cab units. The announcement to continue with the yellow cab scheme will be more beneficial for PSMC. The company has implemented EURO-II standards on its previously non-compliant models and in this regard has increased the prices of Mehran, Bolan and RAVI by PkR35k/unit each in the previous week.

Indus Motor Company (INDU): The Company posted 6%YoY growth in 11MFY12 while MoM sales declined by 7% to 4,846 units. The fall in sequential sales was due to the discontinuation of the ‘Cuore’ model where May’12 sales of ‘Cuore’ were down 80%MoM to just 63 units, while heavy weight Corolla sales were up slightly by 1%MoM. In 11MFY12, Corolla has recorded sales of 41,720 units up 9%YoY, Cuore sales were down by 36%YoY at 3,562 units while Hilux sales of 3,625 units were up by a robust 56%YoY following introduction of the ‘Vigo Champ’.

Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR): HCAR recorded sales of 9,901 units in 11MFY12, down 33%YoY as production was hampered due to supply chain disruptions from floods in Thailand last year. However, production levels are returning back to normalcy and in this regard HCAR sales were up by 53%MoM  to 1,150 units in May'12, where ‘City’ sales were up by 6.8xMoM to 1,050 units.

Tractors: While industry tractor sales for 11MFY12 are down by 34%YoY to 41,377 units, sales have been gaining momentum since the reduction in GST to 5% in mid-Jan’12. Industry sales for May’12 were up by 9.8%MoM to 6,913 units, while compared to May last year, sales are up by 10.6%. On a company wise basis, AGTL and MTL sales were down by 41.6%YoY and 28.0%YoY, respectively however on a sequential basis sales were up by 20% and 4%.

Motorcycle/Three Wheelers Division: The segment posted flat sales growth with 760k units sold during 11MFY12. For the month of May’12 sales of 71.6k units were up 8%MoM. Given increasing petrol/CNG prices, load shedding of CNG and stalled auto financing, low end consumers are more likely to switch from cars to motorcycles. Given the healthy outlook for the segment, Atlas Honda (ATLH) is reportedly considering investing US$50mn to increase motorcycle capacity to 1mn units/year from the current capacity 0.75mn/year. Recall, ATLH last year invested US$35mn to increase capacity by 25%.

FY13 Budget Implications: Budget FY13 was positive for the auto sector given the status quo maintained on the import duty of CBUs. Custom duty on imported CKD units has been reduced by 5% to 30% which will reduce manufacturing costs for local assemblers. The advance tax on 1300cc-1600cc vehicles has been raised by PkR8,125/unit to PkR25k/unit, which is a slight negative for INDU but positive for PSMC given its dominance in the economy category (below 1300cc).                       
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on June 14, 2012, 01:04:22 PM
Auto sales up by 12% MoM; PSMC hauls YoY passenger cars sales
 
•Total industry sales, comprising of passenger cars, LCVs, pickups, jeeps and farm tractors, witnessed a 12% MoM growth to 23,523 units in May12 from 21,093 units in Apr12. The 11mo FY12 sales, however, remained stagnant.
 
•Passenger car sales witnessed a growth of 12% YoY to stand at 121,228 units in 11mo FY12, against 108,588 units in 11mo FY11.
 
•LCVs, jeeps & pickups section showed a surge in sales of 27% YoY to 38,747 units in the 11mo FY12, as compared to 30,391 units in the corresponding period of last year.
 
•Farm tractors sales declined to 41,377 units in 11mo FY12 from 62,251 units in the corresponding period of last year. However, on a MoM basis, sales are up by 10%.

igi
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on July 12, 2012, 12:53:55 PM
Auto sales in June-2012 clocked in at 19.2k units,
which is an increase of 15%MoM. This improvement
in sales is most likely due to anticipated price hikes
by the manufacturers owing to conversion to Euro II
compliance and steep depreciation of PKR. On a
YoY watch, auto sales soared by 155%. However,
this growth is misleading as sales last year in June
abnormally declined owing to expectation of price cuts. As a
result, auto sales reached 179k units (up 22%YoY) in FY12
vs. our expectation of 175k units. In expectation of stiff
competition from imports, we expect growth to slowdown to
6% in FY13. We presently have a ‘Market-Weight’ stance on
the sector, with Indus Motor (INDU) as our preferred play.

Auto sales rise 15%MoM in June
Auto sales posted an impressive increase of 15%MoM in
June-2012. INDU matched industry’s growth at 15%MoM,
while Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales increased by 7%MoM. We
believe expectation of price hikes by the manufacturers led to
pre-buying by the customers. Recall that PSMC increased
prices by an average Rs35k from June 12, 2012, while INDU
raised prices by an average Rs60k on June 26, 2012. These
price hikes were on account of conversion to Euro II
compliance and steep depreciation of PKR. Additionally,
INDU benefited from its new model of Hilux (its sales rising by
156%MoM).

Auto sales
Units Jun-12 Jun-11 YoY % ? May-12 MoM % ?
Indus Motor 5 ,570 3,870 44% 4 ,846 15%
Pak Suzuki 11,352 2 ,761 311% 10,608 7%
Honda Car 2 ,218 7 88 181% 1 ,150 93%
Ind. cars 13,557 6 ,045 124% 12,431 9%
Ind. Lcvs 5 ,599 1,472 280% 4 ,179 34%
Lcvs/cars 19,156 7 ,517 155% 16,610 15%
Source: PAMA

On a YoY basis, industry’s sales soared by 155% in June-
2012. However the growth is misleading as sales in June last
year abnormally fell (down 43%MoM) due to expectation of
price cuts. The government had announced elimination of
2.5% Special Excise Duty (SED) and a cut of 1% in General
Sales Tax (GST) in the Federal Budget FY12.

FY12 rounds off impressively
FY12 culminated with a growth of 22%YoY, with sales
touching 179k units. The improvement in demand was largely
led by the subsidized Yellow Cab scheme offered by the
Punjab government. We expect the growth to slow down to
6% in FY13 (sales likely to reach 190k units) owing to a lower
amount allocated to the cab scheme this year and stiff
competition from imports.

Auto sales
Units FY12 FY11 YoY % ?
Indus Motor 54,477 50,015 9%
Pak Suzuki 112,157 79,941 40%
Honda Car 12,119 15,486 -22%
Ind. cars 134,785 114,633 18%
Ind. Lcvs 44,354 31,864 39%
Lcvs/cars 179,139 146,497 22%
Source: PAMA

AIDP-2 a key development to watch out for
The announcement of a new long term auto policy (termed as
AIDP-2) will be pivotal for the sector going forward.
Significantly lower duties on CBU imports in the policy can
substantially hurt the local manufacturers. We retain our
outlook on the sector at ‘Market-Weight’, with INDU as our
preferred play. The stock trades at an FY13 PE of 5.8x, and
offers a dividend yield of 7.4%.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on July 13, 2012, 11:38:42 AM
AKD Daily

Autos: FY12 sales up 22.3%YoY

According to the numbers released by PAMA, auto industry sales have recorded a growth of 22.3%YoY in FY12 to 179k units (Cars + LCVs). In FY12, car sales were up by 23%YoY to 157k units and LCV segment registered 17.6% YoY growth to 21.8k units. Tractor sales were down by 28%YoY to 49.7k units where sales were hampered by imposition of GST. On MoM basis, June’12 emerged as the best month of sales in the last fiscal year and recorded total sales of 19,156 units, a growth of 15.3%MoM. Furthermore, sales in the 4QFY12 were up by 8.5%QoQ, where we highlight seasonality (Apr-Jun quarter has historically been the best for auto sales) as well as strong recovery in HCAR sales following normalization of production as factors driving demand.       

PSMC: Being the market leader, PSMC has posted a robust growth in sales of 40%YoY to 112,157 units in FY12 mainly supported by Mehran and Bolan with sales growth of 46%YoY and 69%YoY, respectively. The higher sales of these variants are the consequence of the Government of Punjab taxi scheme. On sequential basis the company has posted a growth of 7%MoM to 11,352 units. Sales in 4QFY12 were flattish (up by a modest 0.5%QoQ to 30.8k units).

INDU: Parallel with the industry sales, INDU has recorded sales growth of 15%MoM to 5,570 units. Hilux with the new model of ‘Vigo Champ’ has posted 2.5xMoM growth in sales to 788 units where sales of Cuore were 295 units and Corolla sales were 4,487 units. In full year FY12, the company has posted a growth of 9%YoY, driven by 12%YoY sales growth of the flagship ‘Corolla’.

HCAR: Sales of HCAR have been on the recovery path during 4QFY12 as production at the plant normalized, where production was earlier hampered by disruption in supply chain due to the floods in Thailand. In Jun’12, HCAR has posted 93%MoM growth in sales to 2,218 units. Sales of Civic and City were 533 units and 1,685 units, up 433%MoM and 60%MoM, respectively.

Tractors: Thanks to the cut in GST to 5%, the sales of tractors have rebounded strongly. Total tractor sales were recorded at 8,368 units in the month of Jun’12, up 21% sequentially, where in full year FY12 there is a decline of 28%YoY due to the GST issue. Milllat tractors (MTL) has recorded sales of ‘Massey Ferguson’ of 5,325 units and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) with the sales of ‘Fiat’ recorded at 3,043 units in Jun’12, up 28%MoM and 11%MoM respectively.

Outlook: Corresponding to the growth in remittances with a CAGR of 19%, total car sales (local + imports) in the country are growing sharply with a CAGR of 30% for last ten years, we expect the sales to grow on the same pace for next year. Last quarter has witnessed a strong growth of 8.5%QoQ in industry sales, which bodes well for the sector’s 4QFY12 earnings outlook. While the PkR depreciated by 0.4%QoQ against JPY, stable steel prices coupled with uptick in car prices should help the auto sector maintain their margins. Our preferred pick in the industry is PSMC (now the only OEM to assemble 1,000cc and below segment variants) having larger market share and the only company to cater car needs of the huge middle class population
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on July 13, 2012, 11:39:17 AM
Reiterate Buy on Indus, U/P for PSMC
We prefer Indus over PSMC as Indus enjoys better pricing power due to its strong brand and
relatively less price sensitive target segment (1,300cc above). After recent price hikes (preempted
by PSMC to pass on cost of Euro?II compliance), PSMC may find it difficult to pass on the
cost of Yen appreciating by 7.8% in 2Q12 while Indus has already passed on cost impact in its
latest price revision effective 26th June. We reiterate Buy on Indus with a PO of PRs325/sh,
providing upside of 21% along with a dividend yield of 12% for FY13E.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec CY10 CY11 C’12E C’13E
EPS (PRs) 2.60 9.70 21.40 14.50
DPS (PRs) 0.50 1.00 4.00 4.00
P/E (x) 39.28 10.53 4.77 7.04
D/Y (%) 0% 1% 4% 4%
Source: PSMC, KASB Research.

Indus valuation matrix
YE: Jun FY11 FY12E 13E 14E
EPS (PRs) 34.90 50.80 52.70 54.10
DPS (PRs) 15.00 22.00 31.00 32.00
P/E (x) 7.70 5.29 5.10 4.97
D/Y (%) 6% 8% 12% 12%
Source: INDU, KASB Research.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 06, 2012, 03:02:41 PM
Car sales to fall in July/Indus preview –Topline Research

Added by Baqar Abbas Jafri on August 6, 2012.
Saved under AUTO SECTOR, HEADLINES
Tags: auto sector, Topline Securities Pvt Ltd., Zeeshan Afzal
By: Zeeshan Afzal, Topline Securities Pvt. Ltd.
 
Based on our discussions with industry experts, we expect local industry sales will remain soft in the month of July. The lower numbers are primarily on account of i) completion of Punjab taxi scheme, ii) prompt buying by dealers before price hike in June causing inventory pile up in the market and ii) reduced price differential between local and imported CBUs. We estimate that local industry sales may decline by 30-40%MoM during July compared to 19k in June 2012 with PSMC receiving the major hit.
 
We maintain “Market Weight” stance on the sector but we continue to show our liking towards PSMC which is trading at 2012E PE multiple of 4.8x.
 
Suzuki Sales to fall by 45-50%, Indus by 25-30%
 
Company wise break-up reveals that Pak Suzuki sale is expected to decline by 45-50% in July from 11k units sold in the previous month to 5700-6200 units likely in July 2012. This is inline with our expectations where we expect 2H2012 sales to decline by 31% as compared to 62k units in 1H2012. This is on account of no taxi scheme in the 2H2012 and short term effect of ban on CNG.
 
On the other hand, the Indus motor sales are expected to decline 25-30%to 3.9k-4.1k units in July as compared to 5.5k in June 2012. The reduced sales is on account of higher inventory built up by the dealers ahead of EURO II factor.
 
Indus Motor to show EPS Rs51.8, up 48%
 
In other sector related development Indus Motor is scheduled to announce FY12 results on August 9, 2012. Based on 8% increase in volumes and better margin (up 1.6pps) scenario we expect the company to post robust earning growth. The company’s bottom line is expected to grow by 48% to Rs4.1bn (EPS Rs51.8) as against Rs2.7bn (EPS Rs34.9) in FY11. The corporate result is expected to be accompanied by final cash dividend of Rs12 per share, translating in full year payout of Rs20 per share.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 10, 2012, 12:01:13 AM
Import of used cars jumps
From the Newspaper | Our Staff Reporter | 18 hours ago

KARACHI, Aug 8: As sale of locally-produced cars remained flat in July, import of used cars up to 1,000cc jumped last month.
 
A total of 4,950 used cars, including jeeps, landed in the country in July. Of them 4,844 units came under personal baggage scheme and 106 units under transfer of residence scheme.
 
Data compiled by All-Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA) revealed that a total of 32 brand new vehicles also arrived.
 In July-June 2011-2012, a total of 753 brand new vehicles, mainly cars, were also imported.
 
Out of total of 4,950 units import in July, the share of cars up to 1,000cc stood at 2,583 units while 1,610 units from 1,301cc to 1,500cc were imported.
 
Car assemblers were worried over import of more than 55,000 units in July-June 2011-2012 in which share of cars (up to 1,000cc) was 24,530 units followed by the arrival of over 17,000 units of 1,300-1,500cc used cars.
 
Local assemblers have not unveiled any plans to introduce any replacement of Suzuki Alto and Daihatsu Cuore.
 
The lobby of used car dealers is expected to cash in on the situation by bringing more small cars.
 
However, Suzuki Mehran may benefit from the vacuum created by Alto and Cuore.
 
APMDA Chairman H M Shahzad said that imports of small cars (660cc) would further improve to meet consumers’ demand as they do not have choice in small cars after non- availability of Cuore and Alto.
 
He claimed that 660cc used car price does not exceed Rs600,000 while two different models of 800cc locally assembled Suzuki Mehran sell between Rs555,000 and 607,000.
 
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) would release sale/production date in the second week of this month, Zeeshan Afzal of Top Line Securities said that sale of locally-assembled cars would remain soft in July 2012 due to completion of Punjab taxi scheme, prompt buying by dealers before price hike in June causing inventory pile up in the market and reduced price differential between local and imported CBUs.
 
He expected 30-40 per cent decline in sales of locally produced cars in July as compared to 19,000 units in June 2012 with Pak Suzuki receiving the major hit.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 11, 2012, 10:04:00 AM
Car sales drop to 13-month low
By Our Correspondent

Published: August 11, 2012
 Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – saw sales decline by 53% month-on-month. PHOTO: FILE

KARACHI: Car sales, including Light Commercial Vehicles, vans and jeeps, plummeted 41% to 10,435 units in July 2012, the lowest since June 2011.
 
Conclusion of the Punjab government’s taxi scheme, termination of production of the Suzuki Alto, and prompt buying of dealers and individuals before price increases led to the downfall, said Topline Securities analyst Zeeshan Afzal. The Punjab government had allocated Rs4.5 billion in fiscal 2012 for the provision of 20,000 yellow cabs to the youth of the province.
 
With the completion of the Punjab government’s yellow cab scheme, the country’s largest assembler – the Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – saw sales decline by 53% month-on-month. Note also that the PSMC registered zero sales for its Alto models, which have been phased out by the company.
 
Mounting pressure from imports also dented local automobile sales: imports rose 25% to 4,950 units in July 2012, and catered to 32% of overall demand in the country. By comparison, share of imports in fiscal 2011 and fiscal 2012 stood at 11% and 23%, respectively.
 
Other than these reasons, the month after the budget is traditionally slow for car sales, as buyers wait for tax announcements that may lead to price fluctuations.
 
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales declined to 5,615 units – down 51% compared to June 2012 sales – while also 53% below sales figures from June last year, added Afzal.
 
The Mehran and Cultus models, both of which are PSMC’s major revenue contributors, also witnessed slowed sales by 39% and 33% year-on-year, respectively.
 
Indus Motors sold 3,087 units in July 2012, down 45% from 5,570 units sold in the June 2012. A major decline was witnessed in the country’s highest selling car – the Toyota Corolla – whose sales dropped to 2,464 units in July 2012, from 4,487units in previous month.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 12, 2012, 02:44:13 AM
Fiscal 2012 review: 26 of every 100 new cars on the roads are imports
By Farhan Zaheer

Published: August 12, 2012

 Car importers believe they can easily double car imports from the present 55,000 to around 100,000 if the government increases the age limit. PHOTO: FILE

KARACHI: 
The numbers match the reality on the roads. Imports are gaining ground. 26 out of every 100 cars sold in 2011-12 were imports, according to data compiled by The Express Tribune.
 
The share of imported cars has phenomenally increased as more than 55,000 cars reached the country, up 162% from 21,000 cars imported a year ago.
 
However, at the same time, sales of locally assembled cars also surged by 23 percent to 157,325 units compared with the preceding year’s 127,944 units.
 
In line with the local trend, Toyota, Suzuki and Honda constitute the largest share in the import market. Other than these three, Mitsubishi and Nissan also have a noticeable share.
 
All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association Chairman (APMDA) HM Shahzad agrees that the share of imported vehicles will significantly rise this year.
 
Car importers are trying to convince the government to increase the age of imported used cars to 10 years from the current 5 years.
 
“We hope the upcoming trade policy government will accept our demand,” said Shahzad.
 
Car importers believe they can easily double car imports from the present 55,000 to around 100,000 if the government increases the age limit.
 
However, the stumbling block is local car assemblers who are lobbying against the move to keep their cars dominance on the streets.
 
1000cc and below lead the way
 
Of the five engine categories, around 45% of total imports belong to 1000cc and below category that includes Toyota Vitz, data shows.
 
Toyota Vitz and Toyota Passo are the leading Toyota models while Daihatsu Mira is also popular in small cars, dealers said.
 
The other four engine categories, 1000cc and above, together constitute the remaining 55% of car imports.
 
Shahzad believes that the share of 1000cc and below category will further increase with the changing dynamics of the local market. With the discontinuation of Diahatsu Cuore and Suzuki Alto, imported cars of 1000cc or less are expected to fill the gap left in the local market.
 
Atif Zafar, analyst at JS Global Capital Limited said that the reason behind the rising demand of imports is the shrinking difference between the price of locally assembled cars and their foreign counterparts.
 
“Customers prefer used Japanese cars because of variety, uniqueness and quality despite them being slightly more costly than local counterparts,” added Zafar.
 
Vitz 2006 and 2007– one of the popular imports in the 1000cc category – is available for Rs0.9 to 1 million while Suzuki Cultus, popular local hatchback in the same segment, is available for Rs965,000.
 
The relatively classier locally assembled Suzuki variant Swift – belonging to the 1000cc to 1300cc category –is priced between Rs1.2 million and Rs1.3 million, slightly higher or in the same range as imports from Japan.
 
Cars and other automobile vehicles are being imported through three major schemes; personal baggage scheme, transfer of residence scheme and gift scheme. Of the total, 98% have been imported under the personal baggage scheme while 1,050 cars reached the port under transfer of residence and gift schemes.
 
Cars with up to 1000cc engines is the leading category more than 24,507 cars units, bringing its share to 44.5% of total car imports in fiscal year 2012.
 
The second leading category was 1301cc to 1500cc cars which stood at 17,601 units and made 32% of total car imports.
 
The third category was 1001cc to 1300cc segment in which 7,882 units were imported and constituted 14.3% of the market share. In the gas guzzler category of cars belonging in the 1601cc to 1800cc category, 3,986 units were imported.
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on August 13, 2012, 11:24:35 PM
Rising imports haunt local auto manufacturing

August 13, 2012 BR RESEARCH 0 Comments
Cannot save thumb
Plagued by the same old ghosts who have consistently been foraging away at the demand for locally manufactured automobiles, the auto industry has experienced a throwback yet again; posting worryingly dismal figures at the end of July 2012. Plunging down by 46 percent over June alone, car sales stood at 10,435 units at the end of July 2012, according to figures releases by PAMA, which highlights generally subdued buyer interest. Compared year on year, industrys sales fell by 41 percent, clearly attributable to a high base effect witnessed as a result of below the line sales in Jul11 when customers deferred buying in anticipation of a tariff cut expected to be announced in the FY12 budget. Also compounding the effect was the phasing out of the Punjab Taxi Scheme, in lieu of which an additional 20,000 units had been sold during last year. As a result, PSMC - which was a market leader in terms of sales last year- witnessed a massive 53 percent YoY decline in units sold. Indus Motors, while managing to post record year-end profits, suffered pretty much the same fate, with its total car sales suffering a 32 percent YoY decline, going down to 3,087 units in July 2012, from 4,551 units sold in the same period last year. Largely anticipated, these declines in sales figures come principally off the back of mounting pressure from imports which have been made even more attractive due to the price differentials between local and foreign manufactured vehicles. Continuing to remain a thorn in the side of the local auto manufacturing industry, foreign imports of CBUs rose by 25 percent from last month to 4,950 units in July 2012, catering to roughly 32 percent of the consumer demand in the market. On the other hand, making the situation worse is the Engineering Development Board, which is responsible for the drafting of the much awaited AIDP-II policy. Managing to strike fear into the hearts of the local auto industrys stakeholders, EDB is expected to lay the stamp on further import tariff reductions, supposedly allowing for a level playing field in the local auto industry, which according to EDBs officials has long been monopolised by the existing giants. While market voices differ in their opinion on the issue of rising imports and its affect on the local market dynamic, the consensus remains that policy-makers should not allow for unfair advantage against localised manufacturing. "We don need to have policies that essentially create win-lose situation" points out Ali Habib, Chairman Indus Motors, in a recent interview to Business Recorder. "We do not oppose imports at all", he reiterates. "What we do oppose is this biased and flawed policy which is taxing local production more than it is taxing imports, without taking into consideration the millions of people in the auto industry workforce who are going to be directly affected by the extraordinary concessions being afforded to the relatively undocumented used car sector".
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mra901 on August 24, 2012, 08:48:08 PM
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/business/24-Aug-2012/auto-sector-to-resist-govt-pressure-to-cut-car-rates

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/business/24-Aug-2012/parts-import-at-zero-duty-to-roll-back-deletion-plan
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: asianstock on August 25, 2012, 12:01:01 AM
What about DFML.. Any News about it..
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 27, 2012, 10:29:23 AM
Government is planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars
August 27, 2012 09:45
 
Government is reportedly planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars and further enhance the age limit of old cars from 5-yrs to 7-yrs.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 28, 2012, 11:47:48 AM
Auto sector profits registered an impressive growth of
54%YoY in the quarter ending June 2012; closing the
12-month period (FY12) with consolidated bottomline
growth of 103%YoY. The growth in profitability was
largely driven by upward trend in revenues, on the
back of higher unit sales and increase in car prices.
However, going forward, we expect a substantial
reversal in this trend owing to the government’s inclination
towards cheaper imports and absence of the Yellow Cab
scheme in FY13. Hence, we anticipate a decline of 6% in the
sales of locally manufactured vehicles, though overall market
(local + imports) is likely to grow by ~3% in FY13. As a result,
we cut our outlook on the auto sector to ‘Under-Weight’ from
‘Market-Weight’ previously.

Auto sector: 4Q financial snapshot
(Rs mn) Apr-Jun 2012 Apr-Jun 2011 YoY % ?
Net sales 46,701 31,707 47%
Cost of Sales 43,024 29,556 46%
Gross Profit 3,677 2,151 71%
Gross margin 7.9% 6.8%
Distribution expenses 444 283 57%
Administrative expenses 478 382 25%
Other operating expenses 456 193 136%
Other operating income 649 598 9%
Finance Costs 86 52 67%
PBT 2,861 1,839 56%
Tax 950 491 93%
PAT 1,968 1,277 54%
Source: Company annoucements
* sample includes INDU, PSMC & HCAR

4Q profits surge by 54%YoY as margins expand
The auto sector posted profitability growth of 54%YoY in the
quarter ending June 2012. During the period, sector revenues
improved by 47%YoY on the back of 47%YoY higher unit
sales and an average increase of ~4%YoY in car prices. The
increase in car prices more than countered the rising cost
pressures (particularly PKR depreciation of 10%YoY vs. JPY),
as gross margins expanded to 7.9% from 6.8% previously.
Moreover, other income contributed a significant 23% to the
consolidated bottomline, largely derived from advance cash
received from customers.

Imports loom large in FY13
We expect substantial reversal in the fortunes of the industry
in FY13, if the government exercises further relaxation in the
sector’s import policy. The government has shown inclination
towards cheaper imports to respond to the continuous
increase in car prices by local manufacturers. It is expected
that 50% regulatory duty on luxury cars may be abolished in
the upcoming Strategic Trade Policy Framework, while the
government could also raise the age limit on imports to 7
years from 5 years currently. Concurrently, import duties on
lower engine size vehicles may be reduced by 5-10% in the
Auto Industry Development Plan (AIDP)-2. Recall that the
market share of imports has already increased to ~23% in
FY12 from ~11% in FY11 due to relaxations on imports
already offered by the government effective Jan 2011.
On account of the above, coupled with absence of the Yellow
Cab scheme in FY13, we expect the local industry size to
shrink by 6% YoY to 168k units. However, we expect overall
market size to increase by 3% to 240k units, after accounting
for higher auto imports.

Outlook cut to Under-Weight
Despite announcing impressive 4QFY12 result, the sector has
underperformed the market by an average 9%. We expect the
same to continue as the threat of imports looms large on the
sector. Hence, we cut our outlook on the sector to ‘Under-
Weight’ from ‘Market-Weight’.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on August 31, 2012, 10:25:34 PM
Government is planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars
August 27, 2012 09:45
 
Government is reportedly planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars and further enhance the age limit of old cars from 5-yrs to 7-yrs.
surprise move
age limit of old cars reduced to 4 yrs.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on September 01, 2012, 01:31:02 AM
Government is planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars
August 27, 2012 09:45
 
Government is reportedly planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars and further enhance the age limit of old cars from 5-yrs to 7-yrs.
surprise move
age limit of old cars reduced to 4 yrs.
wow ! sure ?
i cant see this news anywhere ...
really good for psmc ... good for indu as well ..
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 01, 2012, 08:19:39 AM
Government is planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars
August 27, 2012 09:45
 
Government is reportedly planning to withdraw the 50% regulatory duty on imports of luxury cars and further enhance the age limit of old cars from 5-yrs to 7-yrs.
surprise move
age limit of old cars reduced to 4 yrs.
wow ! sure ?
i cant see this news anywhere ...
really good for psmc ... good for indu as well ..


http://bit.ly/UhKThw

"Although as per CGO, the age-limit of used cars is still intact at five years, the FBR has practically decreased depreciation on imported used cars to four from five years."
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mahmad786 on September 01, 2012, 09:45:50 AM
Should we expect any effect in local car manufacturers shares on this news?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 02, 2012, 11:33:07 AM
Govt reduces age limit of used cars’ imports from 5 yrs to 4

Staff Report

KARACHI: Importers and dealers of used cars have blamed local automobile industry for spreading propaganda against them to reduce the depreciation limit up to four years.
All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA) has sent a letter to the prime minister in response to recent government action, demanding to revert back the decision and allow the imports of up to five-year-old used cars.
With reducing the age limit, the imports of cars will be slowed down sharply and the prices of available cars will be increased by Rs 60,000 to Rs 260,000 on models from 600cc to 1800cc.
The government will not receive the amount of tax generation, which it had achieved in the last financial year of about Rs 33 billion. Besides, the dealers business will be hit hard with the decision and the jobs of dozens of people are now at stake, it said.
In the financial year 2011-12, the used cars imports increased to 55,703 units as against 16,000 in its previous year.
In July, the sales of local cars were down by 45 percent whereas the used cars imports were up by 7.0 percent.
The association alleged the local automobile companies for spreading disinformation in the press to cause the government for taking action against the imported cars sector, which will ultimately deprive the customer of the opportunity to buy affordable cars, the letter stated.
APMDA Chairman H M Shahzad said that the local automobile makers do not produce cars of international standard neither they let the customers buy high-quality cars of their own will.
The local automobile makers failed to maintain cars of high standard besides they keep own money of their customer illegally for a long period in the name of advance booking, he added.
He alleged that local automobile companies frequently hike the prices of cars without any check despite the fact their cars are not equipped with security and multiple necessary gadgets.
Shahzad alleged that local automobile companies have lobbied effectively to change the mind of government officials ahead of the announcement of trade policy, which was expected to be more relaxed for cars’ imports.
He added that local automobile companies are behind the decision of the government, which has been spreading disinformation in the press about the imported cars.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mahmad786 on September 02, 2012, 01:16:48 PM
Import of used vehicles: FBR clarifies method of assessment of duties, taxes
http://www.brecorder.com/taxation/181/1232630/ (http://www.brecorder.com/taxation/181/1232630/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on September 02, 2012, 01:41:01 PM
Should we expect any effect in local car manufacturers shares on this news?

+ve for both psmc and indu. much much more for psmc
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on September 02, 2012, 01:42:24 PM
Import of used vehicles: FBR clarifies method of assessment of duties, taxes
http://www.brecorder.com/taxation/181/1232630/ (http://www.brecorder.com/taxation/181/1232630/)

wth this says something completely different !
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on September 04, 2012, 12:29:36 PM
Over the weekend FBR (Federal Board of Revenue) has issued CGO (Customs General Order) that limited maximum allowable depreciation on used cars, while  have not changed the duty structure and allowable limit. We believe, the development would bode well for the local car assemblers as the step would likely increase the prices of imported cars.

Despite this positive development, we maintain ‘Market weight stance on Auto sector since there is still uncertainty regarding duty structure on imported CBUs and duties on CKDs. However, we maintain “Buy’ on PSMC.

Depreciation claim reduced

The CGO 13/2012 have kept depreciation rate and maximum allowable limit for used cars imports is still intact, but it has effectively increased customs duty. To recall, FBR has allowed importing cars up to 5 years old and allowed rebate in customs duty at 1% for each used month with maximum allowable limited to 60%.

As per CGO, contrary to the previous practice of counting month from the date of first registration abroad up to the date of entry intoPakistan, depreciation will now be calculated from the 1st day of January of the year subsequent to the year of manufacture till the date of shipment as per Bill of landing.

Would discourage the used car

We anticipate that the said step would potentially deter import of used cars which directly bodes well for the local assemblers’ sales. In FY12, sales of imported used vehicles rose sharply to approx. 60k units as against approx. 17k units in FY11, while local assemblers sold  179k units in FY12 as against 146k unit in the previous year.  Customer demand for used car increased due to reduced price differential between local and used imported cars that augmented the general preference for the imported and luxurious vehicles.

Impact: Positive

We believe, the recent amendment will limit importers to claim full 5 year depreciation and price of imported used cars specially 1000-1500cc segments will increase,  while the step is also expected to add higher holding cost.  As per estimates, prices of 5 year old 1000-1500cc car prices will rise by 50-100k.

According to our initial estimates, local auto assembler will be able to increase prices to maintain margins in addition to volumetric growth and the change in rules can impact positively Indus & Pak Suzuki earnings by 5-8%, respectively.

topline sec
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 11, 2012, 07:11:45 PM
Auto sales decline by 22% YoY in Aug12

Aug12, like Jul12 continued to be a dull month for the industry as the sales declined by 10% MoM and 22%YoY to stand at 9,329 units. The used cars are challenging the local automakers on both price and quality fronts and continues to attract customers’ attention as imports are constantly on the rise hurting local sales

The market leader, PSMC, saw its sales go down meagerly despite increase in Mehran (up 40% YoY) and Cultus (up 21% YoY). The discontinuation of Alto was compensated by an increase in Mehran sales, however a 35%YoY decrease in Ravi cumulatively inched down sales by 4% YoY

INDU remained where it was with total sales of 3,092 units. Corolla,the revenue driver for INDU saw its sales units go down to 2,800 units in Aug’12 from 3,681 units in the same period last year whereas Hilux contrastingly had its sales up by 31% YoY. The phasing out of Cuore has dented the company’s volumetric growth to some extent as it now relies heavily on its high-end segment products stance

Going forward, phasing out of the Yellow Cab scheme coupled with discontinuation of ALTO and Cuore would reduce the volumetric sales post CY12 for the overall industry thus, suggesting a REDUCE on PSMC whereas good agricultural output will keep INDU’s margins intact justifying our ADD stance on the company

bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 12, 2012, 10:40:03 AM
Auto sales’ weak trend persisted in Aug 2012, with
sales of domestically produced vehicles declining by
14%YoY. Sales were recorded 30%YoY lower in
2MFY13 vis-à-vis 2MFY12. The passive demand for
locally manufactured vehicles is largely due to
continuous pass through of costs to consumers by
local manufacturers, which has resulted in an
increase in share of imports. We expect sales of locally
manufactured vehicles to decline by 6%YoY to 168k units in
FY13. Although the government recently tweaked the
mechanism to calculate import duties in favour of local
manufacturers, substantial risks still hang over the industry as
the government is yet to finalize the long term auto policy. We
maintain our ‘Under-Weight’ outlook on the sector.

Broad based weakness observed in Aug 2012
Auto demand weakened by 14%YoY in Aug 2012, resulting in
a decline of 30%YoY during 2MFY13 compared to 2MFY12.
In Aug 2012, Indus Motor (INDU) sales decreased by
28%YoY, while Pak Suzuki (PSMC) witnessed a fall of
5%YoY. Major reason for the decline was the rising share of
imports; owing to their improving price competitiveness as
local manufacturers have increased car prices by an average
of 12% over the last year.
Auto sales
MoM% ?YoY Units 2MFY13 2MFY12 % ? YoY% ? Aug-12
Indus Motor 6 ,179 8,829 -30% 3 ,092 0% -28%
Pak Suzuki 11,617 18,301 -37% 6 ,002 7% -5%
Honda Car 2 ,891 2,407 20% 1 ,241 -25% -14%
Ind. Cars 16,701 22,778 -27% 8 ,467 3% -13%
Ind. LCVs 4 ,119 6,902 -40% 1 ,918 -13% -19%
Ind. Cars/LCVs 20,820 29,680 -30% 1 0,385 0% -14%
Source: PAMA

On a MoM basis, the industry’s sales improved marginally by
3%. Honda Car (HCAR) witnessed the largest sequential
decline in sales by 25%MoM in Aug 2012 as customers await
the launch of their new model of Civic, which is expected to
be rolled out at the end of September 2012.

Regulatory risk cloud sector’s outlook
After witnessing an average growth of 23% over the last three
year, we expect a decline of 6%YoY in the sales of the locally
manufactured vehicles in FY13. However, we anticipate the
overall industry to grow by 3%YoY to 240k units in FY13 on
the back of higher imports during the year; despite the
government recently tweaking the mechanism of calculating
import duties in favour of local manufacturers.
We flag that substantial regulatory risks still hang over the
industry as the government is yet to finalize the long term
auto policy. The government has shown inclination towards
cheaper imports to check the persistent price hikes by the
local manufacturers. Hence at present, we maintain our
‘Under-Weight’ outlook on the sector.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on September 12, 2012, 12:05:19 PM
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released the auto
numbers for the month of August 2012 recording a decline of 30% YoY in 2MFY13
to 20,820 units. A MoM analysis demonstrates better performance with the sector’s
sales declined by modest a 0.5% to 10,385 units. This monthly improvement can
primarily be attributed to low base effect of July-12 owing to fiscal year-end
phenomenon and implementation of taxes in the federal budget 2012-13. Segmentwise
breakup reveals that car sales in Aug-12 went down by 13% YoY (to 8,467
units), the 1300cc+ segment shrunk by 17.6% YoY. Sales of LCV and 4x4
registered 18.3% YoY declined in Aug-12, mainly due to a decrease in sales volume
of Bolan (PSMC), Ravi (PSMC) and Hilux (INDU).

Auto Data Aug-12 Jul-12 MoM Aug-11 YoY 2MFY13 2MFY12 YoY
1300cc & above 4,669 4,823 -3.2% 5,668 -17.6% 9,492 10,522 -9.8%
1000cc 1,173 1,135 3.3% 1,825 -35.7% 2,308 5,253 -56.1%
<1000cc 2,625 2,276 15.3% 2,247 16.8% 4,901 6,355 -22.9%
Total cars 8,467 8,234 2.8% 9,740 -13.1% 16,701 22,778 -26.7%
LCV's + 4x4 1,918 2,201 -12.9% 2,347 -18.3% 4,119 6,872 -40.1%
Total 10,385 10,435 -0.5% 12,087 -14.1% 20,820 29,650 -29.8%
Company wise Aug-12 Jul-12 MoM Aug-11 YoY 2MFY13 2MFY12 YoY
PSMC 6,002 5,615 7% 6,304 -5% 11,617 18,301 -36.5%
INDU 3,092 3,087 0% 4,278 -28% 6,179 8,829 -30.0%
HCAR 1,241 1,650 -25% 1,437 -14% 2,891 2,407 20.1%
Source: PAMA

PSMC: Trying to cater ALTO’s customers
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) registered a sales decline of 5%
YoY to 6,002 units but continued its performance as a market leader. However, on
2MFY13 basis its market share dropped by 6% YoY to 56%. The reason behind this
decrease was the discontinuation of its brand Alto that was PSMC’s leading brand in
1,000cc category. Better picture can be seen on MoM basis as it shows a 7%
improvement in sales volume of the company. This was mainly accounted for the
base effect of lower sales volume in July-12. PSMC has been successful in
attracting its Alto customers towards Mehran, Cultus and Swift models, which
registered YoY enormous sales growth of 40%, 21%, and 16% respectively in
August-12. While other models including Liana, Bolan and Ravi shows YoY decline
of 26%, 10% and 34% respectively.

INDU: Sales down by 28% YoY
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) experienced sales contraction of 28% YoY
during Aug-12 to 3,092 units. On 2MFY13 basis, sales are down by 30% YoY to
6,179 units. The main reason behind this was a 10 day production halt in July-
August 12 due to higher inventory and pre-buying of buyers and road side dealers in
June-12. Corolla’s sales decreased by 5% YoY to 2,800 units in Aug-12, while Hilux
sales improved by 3% YoY to 282 units. MoM, sales of the Corolla grew by 14%
while sales of Hilux drastically decreased by 50%. Imported Japanese second hand
cars are becoming major competitor for INDU flagship brand Corolla as during FY12
about 55,000 units of used Japanese cars were imported in the country. Hence it
has become a serious threat for INDU, all eyes will now be on the upcoming Auto
Industrial Development Program (AIDP 2012-17), which will set the course for
future direction for imported cars in the country.

HCAR: All New Civic expected to come
Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR’s) experienced a sales drop of 14% YoY
to 1,241 units in Aug-12. 2MFY13 scenario portrays an improved picture as sales
increases by 20% YoY. On MoM basis HCAR sales declined by 25% that was
mainly due to the expectation of launch of Honda’s Civic new model by the end of
3QCY12 as Civic registered a massive sales decline of 60% MoM and 66% YoY to
201 units. The company did not produce even a single unit of Civic in Aug-12
hinting towards a possible launch of the new Civic by the end of September-12.
While other brand (City) sales augmented by 24% YoY contributing to confine
market share of HCAR in the sector/industry.

Tractors: A 190% YoY enormous increase in sales
Tractor sales increased immensely by 190% YoY to 2,855 units in comparison with
the sale of 957 units in the same period last year. However Aug-12 sales (2,855
units) remain more or like same as of July-12 sales (2,828 units). Al-Ghazi tractors
registered a sales growth of 300% YoY but sales decline of 28 % MoM to 1,216
units. While Millat tractors sales boosted by 151% YoY and 44% MoM to 1,639
units.

ahl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mra901 on September 25, 2012, 11:41:05 AM
Shrinking demand hits car production                              DAWN

Owing to influx of used cars, the continuous slow?down in sale of locally?made cars is
hampering production plans of auto makers. As per an official from Indus Motor Company
(IMC) that the company, after observing 7 non?production days (NPDs) in Sep?12, intends to
extend the NPDs to 10 days next month, implying curtailing production to 50%. Moreover, the
company has reduced order placement for parts and accessories to its vendors by 50% as well.
As per news report, Pak Suzuki is facing similar issues due to accumulation of unsold stocks,
where the requirements for components of Mehran, Bolan and Ravi has weakened, while it has
reduced to nil for Cultus for the month of Oct?12.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on October 11, 2012, 12:18:03 PM
Auto sales down 30% in 1QFY13
As per recent data released by PAMA, local auto sales deteriorated further by 6.4% MoM to
9,721 units in Sep 12 – lowest in 15 months, taking 1Q sales to 30,541 units (down 30% YoY).
Adjusting for production of Cuore and Alto (shut down this year), sales declined by 21% YoY in
1QFY13. In Sep?12, sales for INDUS are down by a significant 31% MoM owing to its highest
selling car, Corolla’s sales declining by 37% MoM to 1,768 units. Moreover, PSMC’s sales also
failed to recover, posting flat (0.7% MoM) growth during the month. The overall weak demand
for auto sector mainly due to influx of used cars remains a concern, until clarity emerges on
ongoing discussions between officials of auto manufacturers and Ministry of Industries
regarding stricter control (reducing age limit and increasing duties) on import of vehicles.
Furthermore, lack of payouts in the quarter is likely to keep price performance muted on
earnings announcements.

We remains Neutral on Indus with a PO of PRs345/sh, providing dividend yield of 12.7% for
FY13E, while we maintain U/P rating on PSMC with a PO of PRs99/sh.
Units Sep?12 Sep?11 YoY Aug?12 MoM 1QFY13 1QFY12 YoY
Pak Suzuki 6,042 8,114 ?25.5% 6,002 0.7% 17,659 26,415 ?33.1%
Indus 2,120 3,991 ?46.9% 3,092 ?31.4% 8,299 12,820 ?35.3%
Honda Atlas 1,530 1,865 ?18.0% 1,241 23.3% 4,421 4,272 3.5%
Others 29 44 ?34.1% 50 ?42.0% 162 187 ?13.4%
Total ? sales 9,721 14,014 ?30.6% 10,385 ?6.4% 30,541 43,694 ?30.1%
? Cars 7,492 11,198 ?33.1% 8,467 ?11.5% 24,193 33,976 ?28.8%
? LCVs + 4x4 2,229 2,816 ?20.8% 1,918 16.2% 6,348 9,718 ?34.7%
Tractors 2,588 2,222 16.5% 2,855 ?9.4% 8,271 4,215 96.2%
Source: PAMA

PSMC 3Q12E: Too little, too late price hike to add to woes
We expect PSMC’s earnings to decline by 67?72% YoY to PRs1.33?1.58/sh in 3Q (ending Sep),
where adjustment of PRs21mn deferred tax asset as of Jun?12, if wholly incorporated by the
company during 3Q, would result in positive EPS impact of PRs0.25. We believe costlier CKD
imports due to ~4.5% depreciation of PRs/JPY, along with 43% QoQ decline in sales, to lead to
compression in gross margins to 5.2% vs 7.2% last quarter. While the 2.0?6.7% price hike in Jun?
12 sought to pass on the cost of conversion to Euro?II standards only, the recent price hike (Oct
1st) further dents demand outlook for 4Q12 in our view.

INDUS 1QFY13E: Weaker sales to dent earnings outlook
While more frequent price hikes to offset the unfavorable PRs/JPY parity should help support
margins, 35% YoY decline in sales ? lowest since 1QFY09 – are set to drag 1Q earnings down by
14% YoY to PRs10.3/sh. Moreover, we expect other income to dip by 32% YoY due to a host of
factors including reduced delivery period, new partial payment scheme and lower interest rates.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: stockz_123 on October 11, 2012, 01:51:02 PM
1QFY13 Auto Sales decline by 30%YoY

PAMA has released the sales data of vehicles for 1QFY13. According to the numbers, sales volumes of the auto industry (Cars & LCVs) are down by 30%YoY in 1QFY13 to 30,539 units. On a sequential basis, industry volumes posted a decline of 6.4%MoM to 9,721 units in Sep’12 compared to 10,383 units in Aug’12. While car segment sales were down 9.1%MoM in Sep'12, the LCV segment posted 18%MoM growth, driven by 19% sequential growth in Ravi sales to 861 units. Tractor sales recorded a steep decline of 9.4%MoM in Sep’12, where sales were downbeat during 1QFY13 – registering at 8,271 units, down 62%YoY.

Manufacturers have heightened lobbying activities:  According to news reports, local auto industry representatives are continuously meeting with pertinent authorities to restrict CBU imports and to create a symmetry between imported cars and local cars. In this regard, Vice President of Japan External Trade Organization, Mr. Daisuke Hiratsuka in his recent visit to Pakistan stated the need to ensure consistent economic policies with a need to protect the existing local automobile industry. Further meeting between local stakeholders and the Government are expected next week.

New Civic sales start off in high gear: New Civic model supported HCAR to post a sales growth of 23%MoM in Sep’12 to 1,530 units where the new model recorded sales of 778 units up 58% from normalized (excluding the plant shut down period - Dec’11 to Feb’12 - post Thailand floods) average monthly sales of last three years. PSMC recorded a slight increase in Sep’12 sales with 0.7%MoM growth to 6,042 units. Sales of Cultus and Mehran were down by 12.9%MoM and 2.4%MoM, respectively, on pressure from imported competition. However, overall sales were supported by healthy Bolan (+14.7%MoM) and Ravi (+18.9%MoM) offtake. INDU has shown a decline in sales by 31%MoM to 2,120 units, where sales of INDU have clearly been more sensitive to imported competition.

AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on October 15, 2012, 12:41:44 PM
Cabinet turns down Ministry’s request to ease car imports
The Cabinet Division has returned a summary prepared by the Ministry of
Industries (MoI) on reduction in age limit of imported cars from five years to three
years, contending that the issue falls under the domain of Ministry of Commerce.
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minster and Minster for Industries said that the issue of
import of used cars is likely to be resolved next week. We reiterate our ‘Under-
Weight’ stance on the sector, and continue to flag substantial regulatory risks.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Dhillon on October 24, 2012, 07:35:10 AM
The Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) on Tuesday constituted a high-level committee to look into a proposal for reduction in age limit from existing five years to three years for import of old and used cars into the country to save the local industry from collapsing, official sources informed.  
 
 The Ministry of Industries had approached the ECC by arguing that local auto industry is on the verge of collapse as the prices of old and used cars being imported into the country under Transfer of Residence, Gift Scheme and Personal Baggage Scheme are very near to the prices of locally manufactured cars.

The increase in age limit of old and used cars for import under the said schemes has not helped the consumers as the local cars prices have not been decreased and existing policy of allowing import of five years old and used cars have negatively impacted the local auto industry which is employing directly or indirectly over 200,000 people in the country. Some Rs 82 billion investment in car assembly and manufacturing industry and a large number of people in the vender industry are facing negative impact of huge imports of old and used cars as local demand is decreasing while imports are increasing.

The country’s requirement of cars is estimated at 200,000 units per year and at present local industry is making only 154,255 units and some 55,112 old and used cars and 1,861 jeeps have been imported making a total of 56,973 old and used units into the country. Some 37 percent local demand is being met through import of old and used cars, which is hurting local investors as well as local vender industry and discouraging new investment in the country.

It has also been informed to the ECC that the local industry is capable of meeting country’s demand having capacity of producing 250,000 units per year and vender industry also needs opportunities for providing parts for local manufacturing of cars. It has been requested to ECC that age limit of old and used cars imported into the country be decreased from existing five years to three years.


The Daily Times
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: stockz_123 on October 31, 2012, 10:26:45 AM
Local auto assembles reportedly came in for heavy criticism in the last ECC meeting for enjoying protection and charging high prices. That said, a committee has been constituted under the chairmanship of Deputy PM/Senior Minister for Industries Chaudhry Pervez Elahi to examine the issue of decrease in age limit of imported used cars.   
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on November 08, 2012, 12:34:49 PM
The federal industries ministry has stepped up its efforts to lobby with other ministries to reduce the age limit for import of used cars from five-year to three years in a bid to provide protection to local manufacturers.

http://dawn.com/2012/11/08/efforts-to-protect-local-car-industry/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on November 11, 2012, 11:38:18 AM
http://dawn.com/2012/11/11/long-term-auto-policy-soon-says-pm/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on November 11, 2012, 11:52:26 AM
Likely favourable decision on age limit of old cars could boost price performance of INDU and PSMC
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 11, 2012, 12:20:34 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/463957/al-haj-faw-motors-inaugurates-automobile-assembly-line/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 13, 2012, 12:05:13 AM
Auto sales decline by 40% YoY in Oct’12

          The auto sales numbers for Oct’12 have arrived where the numbers continue to disappoint when compared on a YoY basis. The industry sales decline by 4% MoM, however, on YoY basis the industry sales stood at 8,184 units decreasing by a substantial 40%. The used cars are challenging the local automakers on both price and quality fronts and continue to attract customers attention as imports are constantly on the rise hurting local sales
          The market leader, PSMC, saw its sales go down by 40% YoY as the company’s revenue drivers fail to perform. Mehran sales went down 32% YoY and Cultus declined by 23% YoY
          INDU on the other hand sold 2,704 units cumulatively; down 52% YoY where phasing out of Cuore has dented the company’s sales to some extent as it now relies heavily on its high-end segment products, we believe. The company’s prime product, Corolla, saw its sales units go down to 2,155 units in Oct’12 from 4,493 units in the same period last year whereas Hilux contrastingly had its sales up by a significant 126% YoY to 549 units in Oct’12
          Going forward, phasing out of the Yellow Cab scheme coupled with discontinuation of ALTO and Cuore would continue to keep the volumetric sales under pressure in CY12 for the overall industry. Having said, any good news on the regulatory front has the potential to revive the volumes for local auto makers. We have an ADD stance on PSMC providing ~9% return at current levels whereas we maintain our BUY stance on INDU providing a total return of 21%

bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 13, 2012, 11:28:41 AM
Auto sales down by 32% YoY in 4MFY13
As per latest auto data release by PAMA, sales for cars and LCVs remained sluggish, declining by
3.3% MoM to 9,397 units in Oct?12 (?38% YoY). The month of Oct?12 also saw Pak Suzuki hiking
its product prices by 1.7%?4.1%, which as expected, affected demand as PSMC’s sales are down
by 15.7% MoM, with a decline reflecting in all its variants. On the other hand, sales for Indus
Motors picked up by 27.5% MoM to 2,704 units (low base from Sep?12), however is still behind
last year’s monthly run?rate. Cumulatively in 4MFY13, total sales are down 32% YoY, reflecting
38% and 35% decline in Indus and PSMC sales. We expect overall sales to remain depressed this
quarter with continued used cars import as well as year?end factor.

Units Oct?12 Oct?11 YoY Sep?12 MoM 4MFY13 4MFY12 YoY
Pak Suzuki 5,094 8,462 ?39.8% 6,042 ?15.7% 22,753 34,877 ?34.8%
Indus 2,704 4,986 ?45.8% 2,120 27.5% 11,003 17,806 ?38.2%
HCAR 1,588 1,621 ?2.0% 1,530 3.8% 6,009 5,893 2.0%
Others 11 38 ?71.1% 29 ?62.1% 173 225 ?23.1%
Total ? sales 9,397 15,107 ?37.8% 9,721 ?3.3% 39,938 58,801 ?32.1%
?Cars 7,314 12,268 ?40.4% 7,492 ?2.4% 31,507 46,244 ?31.9%
?LCVs + 4x4 2,083 2,839 ?26.6% 2,229 ?6.6% 8,431 12,557 ?32.9%
Tractors 5,712 4,054 40.9% 2,588 120.7% 13,983 8,269 69.1%
Source: PAMA

PSMC ? EPS and PO cut; New PO at PRs89/sh
We believe PSMC’s price hike in Oct?12 is likely to pull its gross income out of red in 4Q on
complete pass?through of cost. However, detailed 3Q12 accounts for PSMC reveal cash balance
has declined to PRs1.0bn as of Sep?12, from PRs4.5bn in Jun?12 mainly on the back of increase
in raw material and finished goods inventory. Combined with full impact of lower interest rate,
interest income is likely to reduce further in 4Q (Revised 4Q12E EPS/DPS at PRs2.7/3.0). While
we fine?tune our full year EPS for CY12E/13E down 3%/2% to PRs17.0/PRs18.0, we lower our PO
by 10% to PRs89/sh on lower operating cash flow.

Valuations turning positive – clarity on import policy awaited
Weak earnings announcement has led to the stock’s recent under?performance (down 16%
relative to index in past 1?mnth). However given lack of clarity on demand for locally assembled
cars as any revision in used cars policy is still awaited, we retain our U/P stance on PSMC,
despite valuations turning incrementally positive (CY13E P/E 4.7x). In this backdrop, we prefer
Indus (PO: PRs292/sh) over PSMC on its strong brand loyalty, where Indus is currently trading at
FY14E P/E of 4.5x. Key upside remains pending decision on tighter used cars import policy and
clarity on AIDP?II.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 13, 2012, 12:02:16 PM
http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=13_11_2012_009_004

 :D

fbr and customs always a few thousand steps behind jugaru pakistanis
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 13, 2012, 01:05:31 PM
AKD Daily

Auto Sector: 4MFY13 Sales Update

According to the data released by PAMA, Industry auto sales for Oct’12 further contracted by 3.3%MoM to 9,397 units (Cars + LCVs) reflecting lower demand of local variants. In this regard, availability of imported vehicles and increasing prices of the local variants can be termed as the reason behind decline in sales trend. On the flipside, tractor sales were up by 2.2xMoM in Oct'12 to 5,712 units against 2,588 units in Sep'12. Cumulatively, auto industry sales for 4MFY13 declined by 32%YoY to 39,936 units while sales of tractors have risen by 69%YoY.

PSMC: The Company passed on the impact of Euro-II compliance related costs onto consumers, resulting in a price hike of ~3.9%. Higher prices further dented PSMC demand with sales falling by 15.7%MoM to 5,094 units in Oct'12. Similarly, 4MFY13 sales were down by 35%YoY to 22,753 units, partly due to the completion of Punjab Taxi Scheme.                     .

INDU: After completely phasing out Cuore, INDU's overall sales have declined by 38%YoY in 4MFY13 to 11,003 units. Hilux was the only INDU variant to record a 59%YoY growth in sales for 4MFY13. Flagship Corolla sales were lower by 39%YoY in the period to 9,187 units. On a sequential basis, INDU sales bounced back by 28%MoM to 2,704 units.                .

HCAR: Sales of the new Civic model rose by 3.5%MoM to 805 units in Oct'12 where City sales were also up by 4.1%MoM to 783 units, taking HCAR's total sales to 1,588 units in Oct'12 (+3.8%MoM). For 4MFY13, HCAR has managed to record a sales growth of 2%YoY.                        .

Tractors: In 4MFY13, tractor sales have recorded a growth of 69%YoY where in Oct'12 sales are up by 2.2x MoM to 5,712 units. MTL has recorded sales of 3,374 units in Oct'12 up by 68.4%MoM while AGTL sales are up by 4.0x MoM to 2,338 units.          .

Outlook: In recent news reports, Deputy PM Pervez Elahi has reportedly directed the Ministry of Industries to take up with the Commerce Ministry the issue of 1) lowering of age limit of imported cars from 5 years to 3 years and 2) reducing the depreciation limit of used cars to 24% from 48% currently. Ambiguity relating to the auto import policy has dampened consumer sentiment in recent months. Any favorable development on car import policy (reduction in import age limit) could catalyze local car sales in our view. Currently, our top pick in the sector is PSMC which is trading at CY13F PER of 5.0x and offers 46% upside to our TP of PkR125/share.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 19, 2012, 10:27:37 AM

Reduction in car prices: local car assemblers turn down government request
 November 18, 2012
MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN

 Local car assemblers have turned down federal government's request for reduction in price of cars from Rs 50,000 to Rs 100,000 per car in lieu of lowering age limit of used imported cars to three years from five years. This is the crux of a meeting between the Secretary Industries, Shafqat Hussain Naghmi with the local car assemblers held on November 8, 2012.
 
Official documents exclusively obtained by Business Recorder which will be discussed in the ECC meeting scheduled to be held on November 20, 2012, under the chairmanship of Finance Minister, Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, reveal that local assemblers have not even bothered to hear the viewpoint of Secretary Industries who was also aided by his brother-in-law, CEO, Engineering Development Board (EDB).
 
The ministry of industries initiated a summary for the ECC of the Cabinet last month proposing reduction in age limit of imported used cars from five to three years. The ECC considered the summary in its meeting on October 23, 2012 and constituted a committee headed by the Deputy Prime Minister/ Senior Minister for Industries and comprising Secretaries of Ministries of Commerce, Industries and Chairman Board of Revenue for examining the whole issue holistically and submit its recommendations to the ECC.
 
"Local auto assemblers have played havoc with the public and charged exorbitant prices prior to the government's decision to increase the age limit of imported used cars from three to five years under three different schemes," the sources quoted some ECC members as saying.
 
The ECC members argued that before the increase in the age limit of used cars from three to five years, the local industry was playing havoc with the public and charging exorbitant prices. They maintained that despite the decline in production and sales, the car industry earned record profits confirmed by the Securities and Exchange Commission Pakistan (SECP). They argued that a two-or three-month recession did not justify abrupt change in policy of imported cars.
 
A meeting of the committee was held under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister on November 7, 2012 in the Prime Minister Secretariat. After detailed discussion, it was decided to recommend reduction in the age limit of import of used cars from five to three years, subject to a meeting with the assemblers to convince them to reduce the prices of locally manufactured cars in the range of Rs 50,000 to Rs 100,000 for different types of cars.
 
Subsequently, a meeting with the assemblers was held under the chairmanship of Secretary Industries on November 8, 2012 to discuss reduction in prices of locally manufacturers' vehicles by the assemblers. However, no agreement on the issue could be reached. The local assemblers maintained that the policy of allowing import of five year old cars had hurt the auto industry so badly that they were already running in loss and were unable to reduce the price of local cars.
 
The Ministry of Industries has proposed that the age limit of imported used cars under SRO.90 (1)2011 of February 8, 20111 may be reduced to three years from existing five years. The ECC was informed that under the existing policy, five-year-old used cars could be imported into Pakistan under various schemes. The life of used cars for import purposes was increased from three to five years with the approval of the ECC in its meeting held on November 4 last year. As a result, during 2011-12 a total of 56,973 used cars were imported, amounting to 37 per cent of local production, while during 2010-11, import of used cars was equal to five per cent of total production
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on November 20, 2012, 12:21:52 PM
The National Tariff Commission has invited auto makers and related companies with financial and technical details to deliberate upon the most critical issue faced by the industry these days, on November 22 in Islamabad. It is expected that a big decision will take place regarding used car policy.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 20, 2012, 02:01:29 PM
new competitor in tractors

http://rahitractors.com.pk/

i think alhaj-faw also going to assemble tractors but cant find on their website

http://www.alhajfaw.com/

It remains to be seen what kind of long term effect they can have on local heavy weights, mtl and agtl ..

when new chinese bike assemblers came, they ate in to atlh margins and market .. now they are closing down or have closed down whilst atlh is expanding  ;)

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 21, 2012, 10:47:12 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/taxation/181:pakistan/1260256:fbr-chief-for-commercial-import-of-used-cars/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 23, 2012, 11:22:29 AM
Autos: 3?yr age limit for used cars – a game?changer
 As per the official press release, the ECC has approved the proposal to reduce
age limit of used cars from 5 years to 3 years, effective December 15th.
 We estimate the impact to reflect largely on volumes FY14 onwards with limited
near?term impact, till inventory of used cars clears out. As a result we raise EPS
by 3%/7% on FY13E/14E for Indus, while also raising CY13E EPS for PSMC by 7%.
 With a major regulatory hitch aside, we upgrade Indus to ‘Buy’ where the stock
offers total return of 24% (including 10.8% D/Y) to our PO of PRs292/sh. With
better than peers pricing power and brand loyalty, our top pick remains Indus.
 Moreover, we upgrade PSMC to ‘Neutral’ from ‘U/P’ (PO unchanged at
PRs89/sh) as the company stands to benefit from the recent approval, given
that ~45% of used cars belonged to 1000cc and below category.
 Looking ahead, key risks remain on policy front, where (1) AIDP?II and (2)
removal of negative list of imports from India will be keenly tracked.

Game?changer: Age?limit of imported cars
As per the latest ECC decision, the proposal to import used cars up to 3?years only (from earlier
5?years) has been approved and the maximum allowable depreciation limit has been
maintained at the rate of 1%/month, despite a counter proposal to increase the limit to
1.5%/month. The decision will come into effect from December 15th, in order to allow the
pending orders to clear. This regulatory approval is a key positive in the backdrop of declining
sales for locally assembled cars against rising used cars imports, where over 55k and 15k cars
were imported in FY12 and 1QFY13 respectively. Owing to high inventory levels which may take
3?6 months to clear, near?term impact on sales for local cars would be muted. However,
potential recovery in sales from FY14 onwards is a much needed breather for the auto industry.

Indus remains our top pick; Upgrade to ‘Buy’
We tweak our sales estimate by 1% for FY13E (on potential improvement in farm income due to
increase in wheat support price) and raise FY14E by 10%. As a result, we raise EPS by 3%/7% for
FY13E/14E for Indus. We take the opportunity to upgrade Indus to ‘Buy’, with our PO at
PRs292/sh offering 24% total return (including 10.8% D/Y). The stock currently trades at FY13E
P/E of 5.0x. With better than peers pricing power and brand loyalty, along with upside from
unique variant launch in 2700cc segment in 4QFY13, our top pick remains Indus.

PSMC upgraded to Neutral from U/P
With ~45% of used cars imported during FY12 belonging to 1000cc and less category, PSMC
stands to benefit from the latest change. We estimate 5% recovery in volumes for PSMC in
CY13E to take EPS up by 7% to PRs18.9 vs. PRs17.0 for CY12E. Following a loss?making quarter,
the stock has already under?performed the market by 14% in the past 1?month. Having said
that, we upgrade PSMC to ‘Neutral’ from ‘U/P’ while maintaining our PO at PRs89/sh. We
believe PSMC’s relatively poor pricing power is a key risk to margins in coming months.

More policy changes on the table…
While one hurdle is over, the revised long?term AIDP is still awaited for which our initial
impressions, based on proposed duties for CKD parts and CBUs is that the impact on auto
players could be neutral (for 1,001cc?1500cc) to negative for remaining segments. The proposal
seeks to marginally narrow the differential between CKD cost and CBU import duties; hence
making imported cars relatively more competitive. Looking ahead, auto sector outlook will also
be driven by progress on trade talks with India where removal of auto parts from negative list
of imports from India would be a key positive; but will have negative repercussions in case CBUs
are allowed to be imported, which in our view looks difficult in the near term.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 23, 2012, 12:07:47 PM
this is weird .. i am told the fortuner will have the same engine as the vigo champ, which makes sense as they are pretty much the same vehicle.. but all these houses keep saying fortuner will have a 2700cc petrol engine .. lets c ..  :skeptic:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on November 23, 2012, 12:25:15 PM
AKD Daily

Auto assemblers get the air way

The ECC has reduced the age limit of imported used cars from 5 years to 3 years, effective from Dec 15’12. Recall that we had mentioned in our report titled “PSMC: Pedal to the Medal” dated Oct 16’12 the possibility auto import policy becoming more stringent. Auto stocks hit their upper circuits yesterday as well as today as car sales are expected to rebound strongly while the recent depreciation in JPY adds icing on the cake. We retain our Buy stance on PSMC where the stock trades at a CY13F P/E of 5x and offers 47% upside to our target price of PkR125/share. Note that we maintain our target price where we had already factored in reduced imports in our financial model.

Cloud of uncertainty is over! In FY12, imports of cars roughly amounted ~55k units, implying a market share of 25% which consequently meant lower sales for OEMs. In the aftermath of the recent  alteration in depreciation schedule which effectively reduced age limit to 4 years, yesterday’s ECC decision is expected to lead to sales growth recovery for domestic assemblers. While all auto assemblers should benefit, we flag PSMC has our top pick where it facing the brunt of high imports in the 1000cc or lower segment (45% of FY12 imports were in this category where PSMC is now the sole incumbent).

JPY is weakening: In addition to the ECC decision, we also draw attention to a weakening Japanese Yen where elections in Japan are scheduled for mid-Dec’12 with expectations that the new government (likely to be formed by the Liberal Democrats Party, as per news reports) will press the Bank of Japan to commit to “unlimited monetary easing.” In the ongoing month, the JPY has depreciated by 2.8% vs. the PkR. This should be beneficial for Pakistani auto assemblers particularly in the context of their Gross Margins.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on December 04, 2012, 09:54:20 PM
3 years old vehicles import decision to be reversed..ptv news
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 05, 2012, 05:22:24 PM
As per new developments relating Autos, Finance Committee of National Assembly
has expressed its reluctance on the issuance of the notification regarding the
restriction imposed on the import of over 3-yr old cars. The Committee has pointed
out the aforesaid notification cannot be issued until it is vet by Ministry of Law.

Analysis of stakeholders’ perspective
Though Auto Assemblers cite vetting of the ECC’s import-related decision through
Ministry of Law a normal course of action, importers are upbeat too on the possible
reversal of such decision on account of their understanding with the gov’t (National
Assembly and the Senate’s Standing Committees). Importers’ stand with a
relatively stronger point on that consumers may suffer from this decision due to
least choices left along with possible loss of ~PKR 14bn, as estimated by the FBR
for next 6 months, in terms of duties/tax revenue given already lingering fiscal
position of the gov’t.
As per our industry checks, private importers are planning to lodge a petition to
modify the above decision as most of imported vehicles constitute high-end
vehicles i.e. 1300cc and above, making up 55% of total imported cars. Thus,
putting import curbs across the board is therefore not justified. We believe, allowing
imports of 1000cc and below category vehicles should be the priority so that
middle-lower of the economy segment should benefit.

Market segmentation; who is suffering the most?
According to the data available for imported cars, only in FY12, around 55,000 cars
were imported in the country. Segment-wise data reveals 54% of total imports
comprised 1300-1800c.c category, which directly hit INDU’s market share (keeping
in mind ~80% of INDU’s total sales constitute its flagship brand Corolla). Rest 46%
of imports impacted PSMC’s sales. Latest data shows ~17K cars were imported in
the country during Jul-Oct12 period. Segment-wise data gives an idea that 53% of
total imports comprises 1300-1800c.c category dampening INDU’s sale while 47%
is giving tough competition to PSMC.

Current scenario; Assemblers to benefit at least after 6-8 months!
The ECC decision is scheduled to be implemented from Dec 15, 2012 while
investors already having inventory in the pipeline will be given some additional time
for its clearance. As per our channel checks, there are approx 30,000 cars in-hand
for sale and about 5,000 units of inventory is in the pipeline. Consequently, even
after implementation of the above decision, it would take around 6-8 months to
absorb the current inventory levels. Therefore, it should take roughly 6-8 months
before local assemblers feel the benefit from these import curbs. Therefore,
keeping such large import volumes in the pipeline, one should expect strong
resistance with respect to such decision and increased likelihood of its U-turn.

What’s the underlying impact on Assemblers?
With reference to our base case for FY13, every 1,000 units’ incremental sales
should have an EPS impact of around PKR 2.5 (1%) and PKR 0.11 (6%) on INDU
and PSMC, respectively. We put a cautious stance on the Auto sector for now.

ahl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on December 13, 2012, 11:09:51 AM
Used imported cars: MoC formally reduces age limit
Business Recorder (blog) ?- 7 hours ago
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 13, 2012, 11:12:06 AM
Ministry of Commerce notifies reduction in age limit of used cars cars
After a series of political hiccups, the Ministry of Commerce has finally issued a notification as
per decision of the ECC whereby used cars over 3?year old will not be allowed to be imported,
effective 15th December. The ECC decision had been held off by the NA standing committee
demanding a complete review of the implications, however since the decision has already been
made by the ECC, the Ministry of Commerce was bound to issue an official notification. The ban
on over 3?yr old cars paves way for potential recovery of local sales after 4?6 months till phase
out of used cars inventory, where approx 20k units of used cars have been imported in 5MFY13.
In this backdrop, our top pick in the sector remains Indus (PO: PRs292/sh) offering 10% upside
and 10.5% D/Y in FY13E.

Recent positives have emerged
Certain positives on the margin should not be ignored (1) PkR/JPY has gained 3% QTD as JPY
has weakened sharply against USD on expectations of further monetary easing in Japan; (2)
Auto financing has gained limelight with renewed advertising strategies on lower interest rates,
however expectations of interest rate reversal may curtail the impact; and (3) Increase in
Wheat Support Price by 14% should result in boost to farm income and demand for popular
Corolla brand and tractors. Looking ahead, Trade Policy reportedly to be announced on 21st
December could be accompanied by clarity on the much?awaited AIDP?II.

Year end factor keeps auto sales down 2.6% MoM
Latest PAMA data for Nov?12 indicates sluggish sales (?2.6% MoM to 9,154 units) as per
expectations due to seasonally slow market conditions towards year?end. However beyond
seasonal factors, YoY growth also remains slow (?23% YoY) where 31% YoY decline in sales in
5MFY13 reflects overall weak demand for local sales vis?à?vis growing used cars inventory which
reportedly has reached ~20k units in 5MFY13. Mehran has re?gained its top slot this year with
12k units (down 14% YoY), whereas sales for Corolla are down significantly by 38% YoY to 11k
units in 5MFY13. While sales for Indus weakened in Nov?12, PSMC sales improved by 9.6%
MoM, however were down 29% YoY. Honda sales also fell by 10.6%, dragged mainly by City
whereas sales for Civic increased by 5% with the new model gaining attraction.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 13, 2012, 11:57:33 AM
MoC notification to boost 2H, after dismal 5MFY13
Ministry of Commerce (MoC) yesterday formally issued the notification to cut the
age limit on imported cars to three years from five years, despite strong political
pressure. As a result, we expect demand to pick up by ~70%HoH in 2HFY13, after
a dismal YTD run where local auto sales are down 31%YoY in 5MFY13. The
demand for local cars has remained subdued vis-à-vis last year mainly owing to (1)
consistent hikes in car prices & (2) absence of Yellow Cab scheme of Punjab govt.

Seasonality pulls down Nov sales by 3%MoM
Meanwhile, Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) reported a fall
of 3%MoM in November 2012 auto sales. The decline is due to (1) seasonal dip, as
customers delay their purchases until Jan for New Year registration and (2) higher
imports ahead of change in import policy from Dec 15, in our view. Sharpest
decline of 21%MoM was witnessed by Indus Motors (INDU), where sales of its
flagship product Corolla declined by 14%MoM. At the same time, Pak Suzuki sales
increased by 10%MoM.

Auto sales
Units 5MFY13 5MFY12 YoY %? Nov-12 Nov-11 YoY %? Oct-12 MoM %?
Indus Motor 13,128 20,932 -37% 2,125 3 ,126 -32% 2 ,704 -21%
Pak Suzuki 28,337 42,738 -34% 5,584 7 ,861 -29% 5 ,094 10%
Honda Car 7,429 6,790 9% 1,420 897 58% 1 ,588 -11%
Industry Cars 38,845 55,473 -30% 7,338 9 ,229 -20% 7 ,314 0%
Industry LCVs 10,247 15,254 -33% 1,816 2 ,697 -33% 2 ,083 -13%
Industry Cars/LCVs 49,092 70,727 -31% 9,154 1 1,926 -23% 9 ,397 -3%
Source: PAMA

Buy reiterated on PSMC and INDU
Our conviction on our ‘Buy’ calls on PSMC (TP: Rs115) and INDU (TP: Rs315), is
heightened following the issuance of notification on age limit of imported cars by
MoC. Recall that in our short report titled “Turning Over-Weight on positive
regulatory change” on November 23, 2012 we had raised our TP by 10% for PSMC
and 11% for INDU. Key risk to our thesis remains up-tick in depreciation rate to
appease the concerns of local auto importers.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 13, 2012, 11:58:47 AM
The Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) recently announced
auto sales and production figures for the month of Nov-12. As per the latest
available data, car and LCV sales witnessed a massive decline of 31% YoY during
5MFY13 to stand at 49,092 units, while this figure was down 3% MoM in Nov-12.
Segment-wise break-up reveals the 1,000-1,300cc segment’s sales dropped by a
huge 55% YoY during 5MFY13 while up 4% MoM in Nov-12. This was followed by
economy segment (less than 1,000cc) that witnessed a substantial decline of 23%
YoY in 5MFY13, while achieved a massive growth of 30% MoM in Nov-12. The
high-end segment (1300cc+) also shrank 22% YoY in 5MFY13 and 15% MoM to
3,649 units.

Auto Data Nov-12 Oct-12 MoM Nov-11 YoY 5MFY13 5MFY12 YoY
1300cc & above 3,649 4,275 -15% 4,083 -11% 21,333 27,370 -22%
1000cc 1,031 987 4% 2,235 -54% 5,348 11,969 -55%
<1000cc 2,658 2,052 30% 2,911 -9% 12,164 15,857 -23%
Total cars 7,338 7,314 0% 9,229 -20% 38,845 55,473 -30%
LCV's + 4x4 1,816 2,083 -13% 2,697 -33% 10,247 15,224 -33%
Total 9,154 9,397 -3% 11,926 -23% 49,092 70,697 -31%
Company wise Nov-12 Oct-12 MoM Nov-11 YoY 5MFY13 5MFY12 YoY
PSMC 5,584 5,094 10% 7,861 -29% 28,337 42,738 -34%
INDU 2,125 2,704 -21% 3,126 -32% 13,128 20,932 -37%
HCAR 1,420 1,588 -11% 897 58% 7,429 6,790 9%
Source: PAMA

PSMC: Leader remains a leader
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) registered a sales decline of 29%
YoY to 5,584 units in Nov-12, but remained a market leader despite a 2% YoY
decline in market share to 58%. The reasons behind YoY decrease was: 1)
discontinuation of Alto 2) influx of imported cars 3) completion of the Punjab gov’t
taxi scheme 4) discontinuation of CNG vehicles, and 5) year-end phenomenon.
Surprisingly, on a MoM basis, PSMC registered a 10% growth in its sales volume in
Nov-12, which can be attributable to 30% growth in the sales of Mehran followed by
Cultus and Bolan with growth of 4% and 1%, respectively. Other variants’ sales
including Liana, Swift and Ravi’s plunged 69%, 28% and 1% respectively.

INDU: Again a month of contraction
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) experienced massive sales contraction of
32% YoY during Nov-12 to 2,125 units. On 5MFY13 basis, company’s sales were
also down by 37% YoY to 13,128 units. Likewise, sales were down by 21% MoM in
Nov-12. During Nov-12 alone, Corolla’s sales plunged 14% MoM to 1,860 units,
which was mainly due to the high base-effect of Oct-12 sales (2,185 units). Hilux’s
sales also declined substantially by 52% MoM to 265 units, however, this figure was
still up by 9% YoY in Nov-12. INDU is all set to announce its high-end segment new
variant namely Toyota Fortuner, a 2700cc SUV, which most likely be launched Mar-
13 to catch up with the elections to cater to the increased demand of high-end
SUVs. Company’s market share was moderately down 3% YoY to 27% in 5MFY13.

HCAR: Year-end phenomenal decline
Honda Atlas Car (HCAR) sales showed a cumulative growth of 9% YoY in
5MFY13, while on a MoM basis sales of the company were down 11% in Nov-12.
Civic’s sales unveiled a whopping growth of 128.5% YoY, and 5% MoM, primarily
due to launch of its new model. Moreover, City’s sales volume witnessed a
contraction of 26% MoM while it was up 9% YoY. Remarkably, market share of
HCAR increased to 15% in 5MFY13 from 10% in 5MFY12.

Tractor sales: Tractor scheme continues to help flourish sales in Nov-12
Tractor’s sales volume went up modestly by 3% MoM in Nov-12, to 5,868 units. Al-
Ghazi Tractor’s sales growth marked with modest 1% MoM and an astonishing
65% YoY, to 2,355 units. Millat Tractor managed to achieve significant sales growth
of 59% YoY and 4% MoM, to 3,513 units. We foresee another good month for
tractor sales, as both the companies have to deliver tractors since Punjab gov’t
desired to complete the entire tractor scheme by Dec-12.

Imported cars: The ‘vetted’ SRO finally issued
As per the latest available data of imports from APDMA, total 25,005 cars and
jeeps were imported in 5MFY13. Segment-wise break up unveils 54% of total
imports comprises less than 1000cc category directly hurting PSMC sales, while
1000cc and above managed to take away 44% of total imports ready to dampen
Corolla sales. As per latest development, the Ministry of Commerce (MoC) on
Wednesday issued the so-called ‘vetted’ SRO that endorsed reduction in the age
limit of imported used cars from five to three years effective from Dec 15, 2012.
However, given a huge backlog of imported cars, it will still take at least 6-8 months
for local Auto assemblers to revitalize their sales, we believe.

Recommendation
On stock valuation perspective, while incorporating recent developments we
foresee an attractive upside potential of 24% for PSMC with our Jun-13 price target
of PKR 107/share. Meanwhile, the scrip of INDU is trading at a FY13 P/E of 6.29x
and offers a modest upside of 5% to our Jun-13 price target of PKR 280/share, we
thus maintain a ‘Hold’ on it.

ahl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mra901 on December 18, 2012, 08:35:31 PM
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/18-Dec-2012/japanese-auto-industry-investors-shifting-focus-to-pakistan-hiroshi-oe
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 20, 2012, 11:32:37 AM
Auto sector turning the corner…
The auto sector has largely remained under pressure in FY13 TD on the back of (1)
rising competition from growing imports and (2) higher costs of production. Key
plays, INDU and PSMC, have underperformed the market by 7% and 32%,
respectively in FY13 up until the announcement of the cut in age limit of imported
cars on November 23, 2012. However, it appears their fortunes are now turning the
corner with (1) cut in age limit of imported cars to three years from five years,
effective December 15, 2012; (2) government’s announcement of a 14% increase
in wheat support price (where rural demand is a key volume driver) and (3) PKR
gaining 4% versus JPY so far in 2QFY13, in sharp contrast to PKR’s decline
against USD. While the first two are likely to strengthen demand for locally
produced vehicles in 2HFY13 where we expect ~70%HoH growth in unit sales
(FY13E sales target of 157k units), the latter will reduce the cost of production for
domestic auto-makers.

Auto sales forecasts
(Units) FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14F
Local sales 146,497 179,139 157,000 194,000
Growth 3% 22% -12% 24%
Imports 16,800 55,000 38,000 20,000
Growth 29% 227% -31% -47%
Total 163,297 234,139 195,000 214,000
Growth 6% 43% -17% 10%
Source: PAMA, JS Research

…which the market is yet to fully appreciate
That said the market is yet to fully appreciate the unfolding positives, as INDU and
PSMC continue to trade at deeply discounted FY13E/2013F P/Es of 5.6x and 4.3x,
respectively. Vis-à-vis the market, they trade at a respective P/E discount of 14%
and 35%. It is important to note that INDU has outperformed the market by only 6%
and PSMC has underperformed by 1% since the announcement of lowering the
age limit on imported cars.

Reiterate Buy on INDU and PSMC
We reiterate our Buy recommendations on INDU and PSMC with respective target
price of Rs315 and Rs115. INDU remains our preferred sector play, as it offers a
decent FY13E dividend yield of 7% alongside its potential capital upside of 14%.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 04, 2013, 08:44:14 PM
The U.S. currency strengthened through $1.30 per euro for the first time in three weeks after Federal Reserve minutes showed policy makers may end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases this year, halting a program that tends to debase the greenback. The yen dropped beyond 88 per dollar for the first time since July 2010 amid speculation the Bank of Japan will boost money supply to end deflation. Australia’s dollar fell for a second day after a gauge of the nation’s services declined.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/dollar-advances-to-2010-high-versus-yen-before-u-s-jobs-report.html
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: umar on January 05, 2013, 08:20:09 PM
Where are the PAMA figures initially released?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 11, 2013, 10:24:04 AM
Auto industry still engaged in struggle

January 11, 2013 BR RESEARCH 0 Comments
 December proved to be another ruthless month for the auto industry whereby car sales witness a YoY plunge of 22.5 percent to tally 7,381 units in December. FY13, so far, doesn    augur well for the sector. The recent results released by PAMA reveal that the industry has lost its ground by 30 percent YoY in the 1HFY13.

The old phantom of imported cars kept irking the local industry. Market sources highlight that over 25,000 imported cars have made its ways to Pakistani market in 1HFY13, resulting in domestic industry recording humongous losses of over Rs 20 billion during the period.

Albeit ECC reduced the age limit of imported cars from five to three years in 2QFY13, however a large number of up to five-year old cars including variants of Toyota, Suzuki and Daihatsu are still being cleared by the customs authority, which is in utter defiance of governments decision.

Imported cars coupled with the termination of Non EURO-II compliant cars (Alto and Coure) and absence of taxi scheme came as a severe blow to the industry.

Industry sources also underline that the decline seen in December mainly comes on the back of New Year registration trend. As new models for Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic and Honda City have been rolled out; car sales are expected to gain momentum from January.

Delving into the details of individual companies, while Pak Suzuki and Indus Motors appear to be in hot waters, Atlas Honda emerged as a shining star, outperforming its peers by showing positive growth numbers. Due to fading away of Thailand flood impact and already producing Euro-4 compliant cars, unlike other players, Atlas Honda is riding on upward trajectory in sales and profitability in past few months.

During 1HFY13, Pak Suzuki appears to be hard hit by the termination of Punjab Government Taxi scheme which had bolstered the sales of Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan manifolds last year. Moreover, the termination of Suzuki Alto proved to another thump, resulting in the decline of company sales by 32 percent YoY to 34,324 units during 1HFY13 as compared to 50,718 units during the same last year.

Similar unfortunate situation persists for Indus Motors whose sales came down by 39 percent YoY to 14,699 units during 1HFY13 as compared to 24,066 units in 1HFY12. Decline in sales primarily comes on the heels of 38 percent YoY decline in Corolla sales to 12,429 units in 1HFY13.

Going forward, however ECCs decision to restrict age limit of imported cars appears to be a silver lining in the cloud, the conditions don    appear recoiling in the near future as given the high inventory levels of used imported cars in the market, local industry is expected to reflect a lagged sales recovery. On the positive side, however, lower interest rate backdrop may also provide some thrust to the sales of new cars, buttressed by bank financing.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 11, 2013, 10:29:27 AM

Local car sales declined by 30pc in Jul-Dec 2012  our correspondent Friday, January 11, 2013

KARACHI: Local car sales, including LCVs, vans and jeeps declined sharply to 57,540 units during the first half of 2013, down by 30 percent as compared to 81,944 units during same period last year, said Zeeshan Afzal, auto analyst at Topline Research.
On a monthly basis, the locally-manufactured car sales fell to 8,448 units in December 2012, eight percent down as compared to 9,154 units in November 2012, while 25 percent down as compared to 11,217 in the same month last year, he said.
Plunge in the sales is on account of high imports of used imported CBU's prior to restriction on imports, termination of non EURO-II compliant cars ('Alto' and 'Coure') and the absence of taxi scheme.
Among individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales declined by 32 percent to 34,324 units during the period under review as compared to 50,718 units last year. However, on a monthly basis, PSMC sales picked up to 5,987 units, up by seven percent as compared to 5,584 units in November 2012 on account of increased sales of cargo vehicles 'Bolan' and 'Ravi', said Afzal.
Indus Motors (INDU) sales came down by 39 percent to 14,699 units during the first half of 2013 as compared to 24,066 units in the same period in 2012. Decline in sales is primarily contributed by 38 percent decline in 'Corolla' sales to 12,429 units.
On a monthly basis, Indus Motors sales declined to 1,571 units in December 2012, 26 percent down as compared to 2,125 units in November 2012 and 50 percent declined as compared to 3,134 units in November 2011.
Afzal said that it is expected that the recent decision of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) to restrict used cars import by reducing the age limit from five years to three years would support the volumes.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 11, 2013, 12:05:11 PM
AKD Daily

Automobiles: 1HFY13 Offtake down by 30%YoY

With imported variants providing stiff competition, total sales for the local auto sector declined by 30%YoY to 57.5k units in 1HFY13. Similarly, total Dec'12 sales of 8.4k units were down by 25%YoY/8%MoM. While sales for INDU and HCAR ahead of the New Year were lower by 26%MoM and 39%MoM, respectively, PSMC was the contrarian outperformer with a 7%MoM increase in sales primarily driven by the Bolan and Ravi models. On the tractors front, sales for AGTL and MTL are up by 36%MoM and 25%MoM, respectively, likely due to pre-buying ahead of anticipated GST increase from 5% to 10%. Although the age limit for imported cars was reduced to 3yrs effective Dec 15'12, existing stock of imported vehicles will likely continue to impinge on local OEMs sales across the next few months. Beyond this period however, provided the regulatory environment remains static, local auto sales could be in for sequential improvement where in addition to likely reduced imported competition, we flag revival of auto financing, a weaker yen and soft global steel prices as key positives. Within this framework, PSMC remains our top pick in the Pakistan Auto space where our target price of PkR115/share offers 31% upside.       

Industry sales: Total sales for the local auto sector declined by 30%YoY to 57k units in 1HFY13 in the face of stiff imported competition and completion of the Gov't of Punjab Taxi Scheme (specific to PSMC). Lower industry sales came in despite strong growth for HCAR in 1HFY13, coming from a low base (production affected by Thailand floods last year). Industry sales are also down by 8%MoM to 8.4k units in Dec'12, with buyers opting to wait for New Year registrations, although PSMC has delivered 7%MoM growth.

PSMC: 1HFY13 sales came in at 34,324 units, down 32%YoY. Adjusted for the Punjab Taxi Scheme, the sales decline tags in at 22%YoY. Dec'12 sales of 5,987 units are down 25%YoY (-12%YoY on adjusted basis) but are up 7%MoM primarily due to higher Bolan (+37%MoM) and Ravi (+31%MoM) sales. 

INDU: Sales clocked in at 14,699 units in 1HFY13, down a steep 39%YoY (-34%YoY ex the phased out Cuore variant) while Dec'12 sales came in at 1,571 units, down 50%YoY/26%MoM with the sequential decline due to lower demand ahead of 2013 registrations.

HCAR: Across 1HFY13, HCAR was the standout performer with sales up by 21%YoY to 8,293 units, albeit due to a low base (production affected by Thailand floods last year). In this regard, in 1HFY13 Civic sales are up 40%YoY to 3,719 units (introduction of new model) while City sales are up 9%YoY to 4,574 units. On a sequential basis however, HCAR sales are down by 39%MoM to 864 units ahead of New Year registrations.           .

Tractor Sales: Tractor sales recorded an increase of 29%MoM to 7,571 units in anticipation of the increase in GST from 5% to 10%, effective from Jan'13. In this regard, AGTL sales were up 36%MoM to 3,197 units while MTL sales were up 25%MoM to 4,374 units.

Investment Perspective: Provided the regulatory environment remains static, local auto sales could be in for improvement post inventory drawdown of already imported variants. In this regard, we flag revival of auto financing, a weaker yen and soft global steel prices as key positives. Within this framework, PSMC remains our top pick in the Pakistan Auto space where our target price of PkR115/share offers 31% upside
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nousherwan on January 14, 2013, 07:15:21 PM
Auto sales: Dismal performance in 1H; better prospects in 2H

Event
Pakistan Auto Manufacturer Association (PAMA) has released auto sales numbers for Dec’12. We present analysis on key trends and our outlook of future sales.

Impact
As expected vehicle sales (Passenger cars + LCVs) showed a weak trend in Dec’12, recording a MoM decline of 7% to 8,493 units. Decline in December sales was no surprise as the consumers tend to defer their purchases to January to get their vehicles registered in New Year. 6MFY13 industry sales numbers also exhibit a dismal performance with a substantial drop of 30% to 57,507 units. Auto sales have remained under pressure largely due to influx of imported cars and continuous hike in car prices.

Passenger car segment: During Dec’12, auto assemblers witnessed 15% MoM decrease in passenger car sales to 6,248 units.

LCV segment: Surprisingly, LCV segment performed well during Dec’12, recording an increase of 25% MoM to 2,245 units. The healthy growth seen during the outgoing month was due to higher sales of Ravi and Bolan.

Tractor segment: Tractor volumes recorded healthy growth of 29% MoM to 7,571 units in Dec’12. Tractor sales averaged 4,570 units in 1HFY13 compared to monthly average of 1,267 units observed in the corresponding period last year, showing a surge of 261%. Growth was due to low base effect, as high sales tax rate (16%) was in place from June’11 to Dec’12, which significantly depressed tractor sales during that period. December’12 sales also remained high due to pre-buying by dealers to benefit from GST increase in CY13 (from 5% to 10%).

Player-wise performance
Indus witnessed highest YoY decline in 1HFY13:
Volumetric sales for Indus were worst hit as its sales clocked in at 14,770, a plunge of 39% YoY on the back of substantial decreases of Corolla sales. Discontinuation of Coure, (only 142 units sold in 1HFY13 in contrast to 1,884 sold in 1HFY12) also played
its part in the sales decline. In 1HFY13, contribution of Cuore sales was merely 1% in the total sales mix compared to 8% last year.

PSMC registered 7.0% MoM increase: Although MoM sales of PSMC surged by 7.0% during Dec’12 clocking in at 5,987 units, YoY decline of 32% mirrored the difficult times faced by the auto sector attributable to unaffordable car prices coupled with influx of imported cars, absence of yellow cab scheme and discontinuation of Alto since July this year as the car did not meet Euro II standards.

New model of Civic keeps the sales of HCAR buoyant: Launch of Civic model in Sept’12 has boosted HCAR volumetric sales and has helped the company in digressing from overall dismal industry sales trend. HCAR sales averaged 620 units/month in 1HFY13 compared to 386 units in 2HFY12. We opine that the impact of new model launch is expected to fade in the coming months.

Outlook
Unlikelihood of change in age despite lobbying by importers:
Ministry of Commerce issued an SRO in early Dec notifying the reduction in age limit of used imported car to three years from five years previously, reducing fears of reversal in decision in contravention to Economic Coordination Committee’s earlier decision. As per the media reports the imported cars committee is strongly lobbying against the aforementioned decision. However we, see low chances of withdrawal of SRO.

Auto sales to improve in 2HFY13: We are of view 2HFY13 may bode well for the auto sector as key trends in industry sales drivers point to better performance. Higher farm income on the back of 14% increase in Wheat Support Price, initiation of car financing by several banks, favorable change in car import policy and re-launch of Alto by PSMC may deliver improved unit sales in 2H.

FS Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 15, 2013, 01:04:18 PM
On Monday, the dollar rose as high as 89.67 yen, its highest level since June 2010, as many traders had sold the yen aggressively in recent weeks on expectations the Bank of Japan will be forced to take bold action to jump-start a sluggish economy.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 27, 2013, 04:10:44 PM
The yen slid against the dollar in the longest weekly losing streak on record as investors who bet on bold action from the Bank of Japan (8301) were encouraged by officials suggesting the currency has further to fall.

The euro rose to an 11-month high versus the dollar as the European Central Bank said lenders will hand back a greater amount of three-year loans next week than forecast. The yen fell for an 11th week as Deputy Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said its drop isn’t over and a 1 [...]

Read the full story at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-26/yen-falls-for-11th-week-on-bets-japan-will-push-it-down-further.html
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: omer8080 on February 05, 2013, 10:40:59 AM
Local automakers likely to recover sales, profitability in 2H FY13

KARACHI: Local automobile sales is likely to see recovery in the second half of current financial year 2012-13 (FY13) after restriction of used cars imports and its subsequent impact on picking up demand of locally-made cars.

Analysts of the auto sector said local cars sales would see gradual increase from January onward with the rising booking of new models of local automobile companies. In addition to costly imported used cars will likely to shift consumers’ interest towards locally made cars.

The surge in locally made cars has been witnessed in the season begins every new year which could increase the sales of automobile company by 30-35 percent to 10,000-10,5000 units as compared to 8,448 units in December 2012.

The Indus Motor Company (IMC) will see significant volumetric growth of up to 80 percent in Jan 2013 as compared to 1,571 units in December 2012. Pak Suzuki Motor Company’s (PSMC) would likely to witness a growth by 15-20 percent as against 5,987 units in December 2012. Anticipation of price increases also contributed to volumetric growth for PSMC.

First half of FY13 was bad for Pakistan local automobile industry as ban on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) kits, termination of non EURO- II compliant cars and massive flooding of used imported cars in the country significantly dented the sales. However with the import restriction going into effect, the growth in local car sales in coming months, with the notable recovery in 4QFY13.

In 1HFY13, locally manufactured car sales declined to 57,540 units as against 81,944 units in 1HFY12. The ban on CNG kits, termination of non EURO-II compliant ‘Coure’ and ‘Alto’, absence of taxi scheme and lenient import policy for low volumes. On the contrary, country has imported about 40-45,000 used complete built units in fiscal year as against 30,832 in 8MFY12.

The tremendous surge in volume is also attributable to last minute orders prior to restriction on imports going into effect. To recall, government decided to restrict age limits of imported used cars from 5 to 3 years in November 2012, which went into effect from December 15, 2012.

However, this time importers had to seal the deal at high exchange rates, affecting their competitiveness to local cars.

In 2HFY13, IMC sales are likely to settle around 24,000 units as compared to 14,699 units in 1HFY13, while PSMC sales for 2HFY13 are likely to be around 40,000 units as against 34,324 units in 1HFY13.

Besides the deteriorating Japanese Yen is expected to bode well to the profitability of carmakers. In November 2012, Japanese Yen was trading around Rs 1.17 as compared to Rs 1.08 currently. staff report http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\02\05\story_5-2-2013_pg5_11
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: omer8080 on February 12, 2013, 07:36:03 AM
Locally manufactured car sales up by 52pc

LAHORE – The locally manufactured car sales in the country have improved to 12,811 units in Jan 2013, up 52 per cent versus 8,448 units in Dec 2012 due to increase in sales to ‘New Model’ phenomenon and declining sales of imported used CBUs.

However, the local car sales in Pakistan, including LCVs, vans and jeeps, during 7MFY13 has reached 70,351 units as compared to 96,927 units in the same period last year, showing a plunge on account of huge import of used imported CBU’s prior to restriction on imports, termination of Non EURO-II compliant cars (‘Alto’ and ‘Coure’) and absence of taxi scheme. Experts said that amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales declined by 31 per cent to 42,328 units during 7MFY13 as compared to 60,159 units last year. However, on monthly basis, PSMC sales picked up to 7,004 units by 17 per cent, as compared to 5,987 units in Dec’12 on account of increased sales of cargo vehicles ‘Cultus’ and ‘Mehran’.

During 7MFY13, Indus Motors (INDU) sales came down by 38 per cent to 18,259 units as compared to 29,462 units in 7MFY12.  Decline in sales is primarily contributed by 37 per cent decline in ‘Corolla’ sales to 15,725 units in 7MFY13 and termination of ‘Coure’. However, on monthly basis, INDU sale has jumped to 3,560 units in Jan’13, up 127 per cent to 1,571 units in Dec’12 primarily because of ‘New Year’ Phenomenon.

Zeeshan Afzal, an expert, said in a report that with the import restriction going into effect, he foresees decent growth in local car sales in coming months, with notable recovery in 4QFY13. It is to be noted that LCVs, vans and jeeps sale declined sharply to 57,540 units during the first half of 2013, down by 30 percent as compared to 81,944 units during same period last year.

On monthly basis, the locally-manufactured car sales fell to 8,448 units in December 2012, eight percent down as compared to 9,154 units in November 2012, while 25 percent down as compared to 11,217 in the same month last year, he said.

Among individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales declined by 32 percent to 34,324 units during the period under review as compared to 50,718 units last year. However, on a monthly basis, PSMC sales picked up to 5,987 units, up by seven percent as compared to 5,584 units in Nov 2012 on account of increased sales of cargo vehicles ‘Bolan’ and ‘Ravi’, said Afzal.

Indus Motors (INDU) sales came down by 39 percent to 14,699 units during the first half of 2013 as compared to 24,066 units in the same period in 2012. Decline in sales is primarily contributed by 38 percent decline in ‘Corolla’ sales to 12,429 units.
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/business/12-Feb-2013/locally-manufactured-car-sales-up-by-52pc
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: kpall99 on February 12, 2013, 12:25:16 PM
Car sales drop by 27pc

http://dawn.com/2013/02/12/car-sales-drop-by-27pc/ (http://dawn.com/2013/02/12/car-sales-drop-by-27pc/)

Car sales drop by 27pc

From the Newspaper | Our Staff Reporter | 6 hours ago

KARACHI, Feb 11: Car sales declined by 27 per cent in July-January 2012-2013 period despite sales recovery in January 2013 good as compared to December 2012.

A total of 62,158 units were sold in July-January 2012-2013 as compared to 85,011 units in same period last fiscal, figures released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) revealed.

However, January 2013 stood at 11,571 units as compared to 7,381 units in December 2012 but it remained below sales figure of 13,125 units achieved in January 2012.

Car assemblers are looking forward for recovery in their sales after June owing to unsold stocks of used cars parked at various showrooms coupled with hope of renewed buying after completion of general elections and new political government.

Besides piled up stocks of used cars in the market and shipments in pipeline, the other main reason for the drop in sales was production closure of non-Euro II vehicles such as Daihatsu Cuore and Suzuki Alto and ban on CNG kits. The completion of taxi scheme for Punjab government last year also caused a dent in production.The government has already reduced the age limit of used cars import to three from five years in November 2012 which went into effect from December 15, 2012.

Auto vendors had already sparked their anxiety over clearance of five years old cars by the Customs through mis-delcaration and manipulation of import documents.

They claimed that such import of used vehicles had eroded the market share of locally produced cars by 25-30 per cent in the last two years.

According to PAMA figures, in 1,300cc and above, overall sales fell to 29,974 units from 35,982 units despite increase in Honda cars.
Toyota Corolla sales dropped to 15,725 units from 24,885 units, while sales of Honda Civic and Honda City grew to 4,718 and 5,795 units from 2,756 and 4,235 units. Suzuki Liana sales plunged to 112 units from 259 units. A total of 3,624 units of Suzuki Swift were sold as compared to 3,847 units.

In 1,000cc category, Suzuki Cultus sales fell to 7,459 units from 8,225 units. In 800cc and below 1,000cc, Daihatsu Cuore only 71 units were sold due to suspension in its production in the last seven of the current fiscal year as compared to 2,245 units in same period last fiscal.
Suzuki Mehran and Bolan sales decreased to 6,883 and 24,725 units from 19,375 and 10,823 units.

Dawn News
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on February 12, 2013, 12:59:16 PM
Auto sales recovered 52% MoM in Jan?13 off a low base (PAMA)
As per latest PAMA data for Jan?13, auto sales witnessed rebound by 52% MoM as the newyear
factor comes into play. On MoM basis, INDUS and HCAR sales jumped by 2.4x/2.6x in Jan?
13, while Pak Suzuki sales increased by 1.2x. However on YoY basis, industry sales are still down
by 14% YoY with HCAR’s contribution increasing significantly reflecting production halt in Jan?
12. We continue to expect broad based recovery towards the end of FY13, while risk of delay in
rebound in sales has increased following reported illegal import of over 3?yr old used cars in
Dec?Jan. Tractor sales are down by 79% MoM in Jan?13, with only 1,612 units sold compared to
7,571 units in Dec?12. This reflects demand attrition following price hike due to increase in GST
from 5% to 10% effective 1st Jan.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on February 12, 2013, 01:01:44 PM
As per the latest available data, recently released by the Pakistan Automotive
Manufacturers Association (PAMA), car and LCV sales witnessed a massive 52%
MoM growth in Jan-13, while on 7MFY13 basis, total car sales remained down 27%
YoY. Segment-wise break-up reveals high-end segment (1300cc+) led the growth
with sales jumping 130% MoM in Jan-13. This was followed by the 1,000-1,300cc
segment, which witnessed sales growth of 50% MoM to 1,266 units. The economy
segment (less than 1000cc) meanwhile remained the sector’s laggard with its sales
growing a meager 10% MoM to 2,968 units. This growing performance on monthly
basis can be attributed to the new-year phenomena (low base-effect of Dec-12
sales). Sales of LCV’s and 4x4’s registered a decent 13% MoM growth in Jan-13,
mainly due to a jump in Bolan (PSMC), Ravi (PSMC) and Hilux (INDU) sales.

Auto Data Jan-13 Dec-12 MoM Jan-12 YoY 7MFY13 7MFY12 YoY
1300cc & above 6,019 2,622 130% 5,655 6% 29,979 36,053 -17%
1000cc 1,266 845 50% 2,773 -54% 7,459 16,586 -55%
<1000cc 2,968 2,710 10% 2,722 9% 17,842 21,620 -17%
Total cars 10,253 6,177 66% 11,150 -8% 55,281 74,188 -25%
LCV's + 4x4 2,558 2,271 13% 3,833 -33% 15,077 22,709 -34%
Total 12,811 8,448 52% 14,983 -14% 70,358 96,897 -27%
Company wise Jan-13 Dec-12 MoM Jan-12 YoY 7MFY13 7MFY12 YoY
PSMC 7,004 5,987 17% 9,441 -26% 41,328 60,159 -31%
INDU 3,560 1,571 127% 5,396 -34% 18,261 29,462 -38%
HCAR 2,220 864 157% 130 1608% 10,517 6,991 50%
Source: PAMA

PSMC: Demand on glow with New Year
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) witnessed a 17% MoM
improvement in sales in Jan-13 to 7,004 units, while on 7MFY13 basis sales were
down 31% YoY to 41,328. The decline in sales was mainly due to high-base of last
year (PSMC benefitted from the Punjab Gov’t Yellow Cab Scheme that augmented
sales last year). The monthly boost in sales was due to the seasonal phenomena
(new-year effect), where consumers desired to have their car registered in the newyear.
Sales of Swift, Cultus, Mehran, Bolan and Ravi witnessed a growth of 38%
MoM, 50% MoM, 10% MoM, 9% MoM and 11% MoM, respectively in Jan-13.

INDU: Limited edition caters the Jan-13 sales
Likewise, sales of Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) grew massively by 157%
MoM in Jan-13 to 3,560 units. The primary reason behind such phenomenal growth
was the launch of Corolla GLI’s limited edition, the new-year registration impact and
the seasonal impact. This led the Corolla’s sales to grow enormously by 138%
MoM. During 7MFY13, the company sold a total of 18,259 units, which is still 38%
lower on a YoY basis. Sales of another variant, Hilux, registered a healthy growth of
40% MoM and 55% YoY to 264 units in Jan-13. We foresee the upcoming months
to be better-off for the company due to 1) restriction on imports, 2) expected launch
of Toyota Fortuner in Mar-13, and 3) further JPY depreciation against PKR.

HCAR: Product mix lead to impressive growth
On the same pattern, Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a 157%
MoM jump in total units sold to 2,220 units. This tremendous growth is mainly due
to the flourishing sales of new Civic along with astonishing sales of City new model
“ASPIRE”. In 7MFY13, the company registered a healthy growth of 50% YoY to a
cumulative 10,513 units. Product-wise data shows City led the way as its sales
skyrocketed in Jan-13 to 1,221 units up massively 339% MoM, along with that,
Civic followed the trend to post a growth of 70% MoM to 841 units in Jan-13.

Tractors: Sales declined as expected
On the other hand, as far as tractors’ sales are concerned, we see an overall
decline in the sector sales in this segment. Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited (AGTL)
registered a decline of 81% MoM to 592 units in Jan-13, while Millat tractor’s sales
plunged by 77% MoM to 1,020 units. The downward trend in Jan-13 sales was
mainly due to the high-base effect of Dec-12 sales, where both the companies
delivered their final consignment of tractors to the Punjab Gov’t. Another reason for
the decline includes the imposition of GST (from 5% to 10%) on tractors effective
1st Jan 2013.

Recommendation
From a stock valuation perspective, INDU is trading at a FY13E PE of 6.5x with a
DY 8% while offering a modest upside of 3% with our Jun-13 price target of PKR
295/share. PSMC, on the other hand, is trading at a CY13F PE of 7.5x with a DY of
4.5%, while offers an upside of 6.3% with Jun-13 price target of PKR 101.2/share.
We thus maintain a ‘Hold’ recommendation on both of the Auto Assemblers.

ahl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 12, 2013, 11:54:12 AM
Autos cut to ‘Market-Weight’ as positives are priced in
We downgrade our outlook on the Pak Auto Sector to ‘Market-Weight’ from ‘Over-
Weight’, where the sector has gained +30% vs. KSE-100 rise of +10% in the last
four months. The investors enthusiasm has been largely driven by expectations of
sequential improvement in sectors’ profitability in 2HFY13 on the back of (1) higher
sales owing to cut in age limit of imported cars and (2) PKR gains vis-à-vis JPY,
however we believe the positives have been largely priced in. Hence we lower our
rating on Pak Suzuki (TP: Rs115) one notch to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ earlier while
maintain our ‘Hold’ recommendation on Indus Motor (TP Rs300). Note that since
our report titled ‘Turning Over-Weight on positive regulatory change’ dated
November 23, 2012, INDU and PSMC have out-performed the KSE-100 by an
average 19%.

Regulatory risk at the forefront once again
We expect increase in sectors’ regulatory risk once again after comments from All
Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA) chairman that the Finance Minster is
seeking President and Prime Minister’s permission in (1) reversing the cut in age
limit on imports, (2) taking back the Customs General Order (CGO) restricting the
depreciation value to two years from three years and (3) withdrawal of 50%
regulatory risk on luxury cars. However, we attach low probability of the same
materializing given that the Finance Minister has possibly chaired his last ECC
meeting of his short tenure.

Feb 2013 remains unexciting, as momentum fail to pick up
At the same time, Feb 2013 industry sales remain unexciting as well on the back of
overhang of inventory of imported vehicles. Yesterday’s data release by PAMA
shows industry’s decline of 16%YoY and 1%MoM in Feb 2013, where INDU sales
fell by 27%YoY and PSMC sales declined by 30%YoY. As a result, auto sales in
8MFY13 clocked in at 83k units, 26%YoY lower compared to last year. We
maintain our FY13E sales target at 146k units, down 19% from FY12.

jsgcl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: newface on March 12, 2013, 06:29:22 PM
Cars Sale Plunge by 25%
KARACHI, March 11: Sales of Honda cars continued to show positive trend while other assemblers like Toyota and Suzuki remained in red, thus causing an overall sale decline by 25 per cent in the first eight months of this fiscal year.

Total car sales stood at 73,502 units in July-February 2012-13 as compared to 98,252 units in same period last fiscal year, showed data of Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers (PAMA) on Monday.

However, sales in February also slightly fell to 11,344 units from 11,571 units in January. Sales recorded at 13,241 and 13,125 units in January and February 2012, respectively.

Car analysts linked the decline to huge influx of used cars import prior to restriction their imports, termination of non-Euro II compliant cars (Suzuki Alto and Daihatsu Cuore) and absence of Punjab government taxi scheme.

However, arrival of used cars was receding but the local car industry still felt its impact due to unsold stocks available with the used car dealers.

The government had reduced the age limit of used cars import to three from five years in November 2012 which went into effect from December 15, 2012.

Honda Civic and City sales improved to 5,636 and 6,892 units from 2,781 and 4,243 units. A 34 per cent drop was registered in Toyota Corolla sales to 19,062 from 29,040 units. Suzuki Liana sales fell sharply by 60 per cent to 124 units from 316 units.

In 1,000cc category, Suzuki Cultus sales dropped by 10 per cent to 8,268 units from 9,573 units. In 800cc and below 1,000cc segment, Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan sales also declined to 20,571 and 8,384 units from 22,467 and 12,713 units.

A car dealer said that Honda sales were improving as people knew that the company, which introduced new Honda Civic in September 2012, would not change the model for next four to fiveyears and it was the only 1,800cc locally produced car in the country.

He said Honda City enjoyed edge over Corolla due to low petrol consumption.

In LCVs, vans, jeeps and pick ups, only Toyota Hilux sales rose to 2,714 units from 2,561 units while sales of Sigma Defender Jeep (4X4), Suzuki Ravi pick up and Master pick up decreased to 260, 6,487 and 16 units from 314, 10,739 and 23 units respectively. [/size]
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: newface on March 12, 2013, 06:34:49 PM
Govt may reverse decision on used cars` age


ISLAMABAD, March 11: The government might reverse the decision taken four months ago by allowing five years used car imports instead of the current-three year.

Ref. Daily Dawn dated 12-13-2013
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on March 12, 2013, 10:11:03 PM
Govt may reverse decision on used cars` age


ISLAMABAD, March 11: The government might reverse the decision taken four months ago by allowing five years used car imports instead of the current-three year.

Ref. Daily Dawn dated 12-13-2013

http://dawn.com/2013/03/12/govt-may-reverse-decision-on-used-cars-age/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on April 07, 2013, 02:24:02 AM
he yen slid the most against the dollar in
more than three years after the Bank of
Japan outstripped forecasts and announced
unprecedented measures to fight deflation,
spurring concern the currency will be debased.

The dollar dropped against the euro by the
most in almost three months as U.S. jobs
gains in March trailed forecasts, adding to
speculation American economic growth is
faltering and the Federal Reserve won’t
slacken stimulus soon. Fed Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke is scheduled to speak [...]

Read the full story at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-06/yen-plunges-most-in-three-years-on-japan-stimulus-dollar-drops.html
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on April 07, 2013, 04:07:38 AM
Nikkei 16-18000 khappay , japanese r looking very  determined to defeat deflation
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on April 11, 2013, 12:26:16 PM
AKD Daily

Autos: 1QCY13 sales to set strong platform for 2013

According to latest data released by PAMA, total industry sales (cars + LCVs) for Mar'13 have increased by 5.6%MoM (3.9% ex-Fortuner) to 13,344 units. Similarly, car sales clocked in at 11,581 units in Mar'13, up 2.1%MoM even as the 9MFY13 car sales figure of 85,083 was down by 25%YoY. In our view, this sequential increase may be attributed to the ban on import of 3yrs+ used cars and also from the launch of Toyota Fortuner (228 units). Other than the Fortuner, drivers of growth included Hilux (+86%MoM) and Civic (+31%MoM). Going forward, we expect recent weakness in the Japanese Yen (13%CYTD depreciation vs. the US$) and improved sequential sales to start manifesting in company bottomlines and drive stock price performance. In this regard, we expect PSMC to post NPAT of PkR181mn (EPS: PkR2.19) in 1QCY13, laying the foundation for what should be a strong year.

PSMC: Mar'13 sales at 7,100 units are up 1.4%MoM. As a result, PSMC has sold 21,104 units in 1QCY13, up a strong 27%QoQ partly due to seasonal factors (new year registrations) but also post ban on import of 3yrs+ used cars. For 1QCY13, we expect PSMC to post NPAT of PkR181mn (EPS: PkR2.19). While profits are projected to be lower by 69%YoY, 1QCY13 results should represent an important inflection point after two consecutive quarterly losses.

INDU: With 228 units of the new Fortuner sold in Mar'13, INDU's sales increased by 10.8%MoM (4.4%MoM ex-Fortuner). In this regard, other than Fortuner, the Hilux variant depicted strong 86%MoM growth although Corolla sales disappointingly came off by 1.6%MoM to 3,284 units. 

HCAR: Honda's new model of Civic is gaining appreciation from consumers as the 1,206 units sold in Mar'13 were up a strong 31%MoM. However, City sales came off by 6.8%MoM. This led to an overall growth of 10.6%MoM for HCAR.

Tractors: Overall tractor sales came in at 3,881 units in Mar'13, up by a robust 64%MoM. Sales recorded by MTL were 2,577 units, up 29%MoM while AGTL sales were 1,304 units, up exceptional 2.6x MoM. In 9MFY13, total tractor sales came in at 35,279 units, up 25%YoY.                        .

Outlook: The sequential increase in auto sales in 1QCY13 sets the base for what should be a strong year. In this regard, positive include margin uptick on the back of a weaker JPY, ban on import of 3yrs+ used vehicles and lower interest rates leading to a revival in auto financing. While the auto sector has outperformed the KSE-100 Index by 11.5%CYTD, we believe potential for further outperformance remains
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on April 18, 2013, 03:09:35 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/31:automobile-assembler/3250:auto-industry--a-quick-flashback-and-way-forward/


Market experts pointed out that international steel prices took a significant dip of 10.9 percent in 1HFY13. Moreover, Pak Rupee appreciated by 17 percent against Japanese Yen since November 2012. Despite this, local automakers couldn’t trim their margins, giving imported cars a golden opportunity to grab customers’ attention by offering attractive prices.



margins in q4 and fy14 q1 will be much  higher.
effect on q3 hasnt been that high because of existing inventory.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on May 11, 2013, 12:58:58 AM

Auto sales decline by 21% MoM in Apr13

The total industry car sales went down by 21% to 11,737 units in Apr13 as against 14,792 units in Apr12. The absence of Punjab Taxi scheme and the discontinuation of Cuore are the prime culprits behind the dip in volumes
The market leader, PSMC, saw its sales go down 12%MoM as Bolan and Ravi sales decreased by 42%MoM/165%YoY and 9%MoM/3%YoY respectively. The company's prime product also failed to compensate for the lost volumes as Mehran sales remained almost unchanged. Cultus also witnessed a decline of 14%MoM in its volumes, however the volumes were up 49% YoY reaping the benefits of being the only car in 1000cc segment, we believe
INDU remained where it was with total sales of 3,696 units in Apr13. Corolla,the revenue driver for INDU saw its sales remained constant at 3,284 units in Apr13. The sales from Fortuner provided some support to the company's total volumes post phasing out of Cuore
Honda City continues to keep its volumetric streak going as the company sold 1,100 units of this variant in Apr13 however, Honda Civic sales lost its momentum as its sales dipped by 44% MoM
Going forward, in terms of volumetric outlook, we see a much better 1HCY13 than 1HCY12 as the impact of used cars will finally start to wear-off. However, a fuller recovery is expected in CY14 onwards where the impact of used cars would eventually die down (volumetric rebound)

bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 21, 2013, 01:35:30 PM
Pre-election jitters keep auto sales in check
Pre-election jitters take toll on auto sales
4QFY13 started of on a depressing note for auto assemblers with auto sales for April clocking in at 12,011 units down 10% MoM despite 4Q of the fiscal year usually being the strongest. PSMC and Honda bore the biggest brunt with sales declining 12% and 8% MoM where as sales for INDU remained relatively flat.
Cumulative sales for 10MFY13 down 24% YoY
Cumulative sales for 10MFY13 have fallen 24% YoY, due to cessation of Cuore and Alto, ban on CNG cars, completion of yellow cab scheme in Jun-12 & huge influx of used cars that clocked in at 55k units in FY12 and 40k till FYTD.
Sales to rebound as nerves ease post election and used cars glut clears out
We expect sales to rebound in FY14 as 1) deferred purchases amidst election violence are realized 2) rural income from Rabi comes into play and 3) glut of used cars clears out. However, the quantum of increase in passenger cars is likely to be offset by absence of GoP purchases of LCV in the election season and muted economic growth.
INDU – preferred pick
INDU is our preferred play in the autos universe with a Dec-13 PT of PKR352/share offering an upside of 10% from current levels along with a dividend yield of 8.8%.
We revise our Dec-13 PT for PMSC
We have revisited our case for PSMC in the backdrop of more than expected decline in JPY against PKR with Dec-13 PT of PKR 165/share (upside of 13%) along with a dividend yield of 2.35%.

Elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 13, 2013, 11:29:47 AM
Auto Assemblers: Budgetary Measures
• Withholding tax on purchase of new vehicles has been increased
by 33% to 200% for 850cc to 2000cc cars.
• Govt has allowed duty/tax free import of hybrid electric cars upto
1200cc, 50% rebate on 1201-1800cc and 25% rebate on 1801-
2500cc.
• Turnover tax has been increased from 0.5% to 1%.
• Corporate tax rate has been reduced by 1% to 34%.
• GST has been revised back to 17%.
• Imposition of GST on retail prices of CKD for retail sales
• 10% FED on +1800cc luxury motor vehicles is proposed
Impact: 'Negative'
Increase in GST by 1% and withholding tax on new locally made
motor cars will be an extra burden on new buyers and could reduce
demand for locally made cars. Further, duty free/discounted import
of hybrid electric vehicles will add competition to the local
manufacturers.
Due to imposition of 1% turnover tax, we estimate Rs3-4 per share
EPS impact on PSMC. While, 1% decline in corporate tax rate will
result into extra Rs0.7 per share for INDU.
As seen this year, absence of taxi scheme may curtail volumetric
growth. However, economic recovery coupled with low interest
rates scenario could add to the demand. We maintain ‘Hold’ on
INDU and PSMC at current levels.

Top Line
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 13, 2013, 12:11:18 PM
Auto Assemblers: Budgetary Measures
• Withholding tax on purchase of new vehicles has been increased
by 33% to 200% for 850cc to 2000cc cars.
• Govt has allowed duty/tax free import of hybrid electric cars upto
1200cc, 50% rebate on 1201-1800cc and 25% rebate on 1801-
2500cc.
• Turnover tax has been increased from 0.5% to 1%.
• Corporate tax rate has been reduced by 1% to 34%.
• GST has been revised back to 17%.
• Imposition of GST on retail prices of CKD for retail sales
• 10% FED on +1800cc luxury motor vehicles is proposed
Impact: 'Negative'
Increase in GST by 1% and withholding tax on new locally made
motor cars will be an extra burden on new buyers and could reduce
demand for locally made cars. Further, duty free/discounted import
of hybrid electric vehicles will add competition to the local
manufacturers.
Due to imposition of 1% turnover tax, we estimate Rs3-4 per share
EPS impact on PSMC. While, 1% decline in corporate tax rate will
result into extra Rs0.7 per share for INDU.
As seen this year, absence of taxi scheme may curtail volumetric
growth. However, economic recovery coupled with low interest
rates scenario could add to the demand. We maintain ‘Hold’ on
INDU and PSMC at current levels.

Top Line

jahil hybrids import tu indus aur hcar kareingay na ! trading margins are generally better than manufacturing margins. no ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: umar on June 13, 2013, 03:32:50 PM
Auto Assemblers: Budgetary Measures
• Withholding tax on purchase of new vehicles has been increased
by 33% to 200% for 850cc to 2000cc cars.
• Govt has allowed duty/tax free import of hybrid electric cars upto
1200cc, 50% rebate on 1201-1800cc and 25% rebate on 1801-
2500cc.
• Turnover tax has been increased from 0.5% to 1%.
• Corporate tax rate has been reduced by 1% to 34%.
• GST has been revised back to 17%.
• Imposition of GST on retail prices of CKD for retail sales
• 10% FED on +1800cc luxury motor vehicles is proposed
Impact: 'Negative'
Increase in GST by 1% and withholding tax on new locally made
motor cars will be an extra burden on new buyers and could reduce
demand for locally made cars. Further, duty free/discounted import
of hybrid electric vehicles will add competition to the local
manufacturers.
Due to imposition of 1% turnover tax, we estimate Rs3-4 per share
EPS impact on PSMC. While, 1% decline in corporate tax rate will
result into extra Rs0.7 per share for INDU.
As seen this year, absence of taxi scheme may curtail volumetric
growth. However, economic recovery coupled with low interest
rates scenario could add to the demand. We maintain ‘Hold’ on
INDU and PSMC at current levels.

Top Line

Turnover tax is adjustable, isnt it? What impact are they talking about?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 13, 2013, 05:42:58 PM
Auto Assemblers: Budgetary Measures
• Withholding tax on purchase of new vehicles has been increased
by 33% to 200% for 850cc to 2000cc cars.
• Govt has allowed duty/tax free import of hybrid electric cars upto
1200cc, 50% rebate on 1201-1800cc and 25% rebate on 1801-
2500cc.
• Turnover tax has been increased from 0.5% to 1%.
• Corporate tax rate has been reduced by 1% to 34%.
• GST has been revised back to 17%.
• Imposition of GST on retail prices of CKD for retail sales
• 10% FED on +1800cc luxury motor vehicles is proposed
Impact: 'Negative'
Increase in GST by 1% and withholding tax on new locally made
motor cars will be an extra burden on new buyers and could reduce
demand for locally made cars. Further, duty free/discounted import
of hybrid electric vehicles will add competition to the local
manufacturers.
Due to imposition of 1% turnover tax, we estimate Rs3-4 per share
EPS impact on PSMC. While, 1% decline in corporate tax rate will
result into extra Rs0.7 per share for INDU.
As seen this year, absence of taxi scheme may curtail volumetric
growth. However, economic recovery coupled with low interest
rates scenario could add to the demand. We maintain ‘Hold’ on
INDU and PSMC at current levels.

Top Line

Turnover tax is adjustable, isnt it? What impact are they talking about?

no its a minimum tax. they have to pay a maximum of 34% of profits or 1% of turnover)
withholding tax is adjustable
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: umar on June 13, 2013, 06:39:10 PM
Auto Assemblers: Budgetary Measures
• Withholding tax on purchase of new vehicles has been increased
by 33% to 200% for 850cc to 2000cc cars.
• Govt has allowed duty/tax free import of hybrid electric cars upto
1200cc, 50% rebate on 1201-1800cc and 25% rebate on 1801-
2500cc.
• Turnover tax has been increased from 0.5% to 1%.
• Corporate tax rate has been reduced by 1% to 34%.
• GST has been revised back to 17%.
• Imposition of GST on retail prices of CKD for retail sales
• 10% FED on +1800cc luxury motor vehicles is proposed
Impact: 'Negative'
Increase in GST by 1% and withholding tax on new locally made
motor cars will be an extra burden on new buyers and could reduce
demand for locally made cars. Further, duty free/discounted import
of hybrid electric vehicles will add competition to the local
manufacturers.
Due to imposition of 1% turnover tax, we estimate Rs3-4 per share
EPS impact on PSMC. While, 1% decline in corporate tax rate will
result into extra Rs0.7 per share for INDU.
As seen this year, absence of taxi scheme may curtail volumetric
growth. However, economic recovery coupled with low interest
rates scenario could add to the demand. We maintain ‘Hold’ on
INDU and PSMC at current levels.

Top Line

Turnover tax is adjustable, isnt it? What impact are they talking about?

no its a minimum tax. they have to pay a maximum of 34% of profits or 1% of turnover)
withholding tax is adjustable

Yes. But there will be no negative impact on PSMC as they are running in profit. Had they been incurring losses, then they would have been affected by the new tax.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 14, 2013, 05:28:30 PM
http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=14_06_2013_009_007

lol
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: z sony on June 14, 2013, 05:39:19 PM
kul speculation ke thi mey ny ..market will negative on Friday ..today was short sale day...AB BOP LAO MAL HO GA MONDAY SY... :thanks: 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on June 15, 2013, 02:11:39 AM
AKD Daily Autos: May'13 sales review & Budget FY14 update

PAMA earlier this week released auto sales numbers for 11MFY13. According to the released data, volumes for auto sales (Cars + LCVs) for 11MFY13 clocked in at 121.6k units, down by 24%YoY. For May'13. sales were up by an

reported the highest growth in sequential sales in May'13 with sales increasing by 34%MoM to 2.4k units, driven by a 82%MoM growth in sales of Civic. Recall that HCAR has recently

recorded 11%MoM increase in sales, however INDU was the contrarian decliner (-4.3%MoM). There was nothing positive for the auto sector in budget FY14, where besides increase in 'Advance Tax', the government has provided significant relaxation on imports of hybrid vehicles, which will increase competition for the OMEs.

Auto Sector -

2013-14, status quo was maintained on duties of CBU and CKD

vehicles has been raised by PkR2,500 to PkR13,125/unit while for the 1301cc to 2000cc+ category, advance tax increase ranges between PkR25k/unit to PkR100k/unit. We view this as Negative for INDU and Neutral to Negative for PSMC given its dominance in the 'Economy' (below 1300cc) category. Furthermore, duty relaxation on hybrid vehicles is also a negative for the OEM sector. Budgetary measures are largely negative, but potential upside could emanate from introduction of taxi scheme going forward (PSMC to benefit if scheme announced). Hybrid Cars a new threat for local OEMs: To promote fuel efficiency, the government has relaxed the

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HUVs). Therefore the government has proposed to allow duty free import of HUVs upto 1200cc, provided a relief of 50% on the import of 1201cc to 1800cc HUVs and 25% relief on the HUVs of 1801cc to 2500cc engine capacity. Prius is the most popular among the HUVs imported in the country while other brands are also available. With the relaxation measure, HUVs will become more affordable, making them more competitive with local OEM vehicles. Outlook:

outperformed the broader market by 11% in the said period. One of the driving factors behind the auto sector rally was the sharp fall in JPY and steel prices, despite sluggish sales. The budget FY14 does not have any positives for the sector, where despite positive outlook for margins, sluggish demand prospects could result in the sector underperforming the broader market in the near term.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 18, 2013, 11:20:09 AM

The Bell
 
Autos: Budget adds to the rough pastures

http://www.elixirsec.com/Research/Morningsnews18062013.pdf?utm_source=Research%2BReports&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BellNews
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 25, 2013, 12:16:26 PM
Recently announced tax reforms in Budget are being marked
negative for Pakistan automobile sector by certain corners. There
are concerns in market that the increase in GST, WHT, and FED on
local cars and rebate on Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) will result in
higher local car prices and increased competition.
We downplay these concerns as rebate on HEV may not affect
local market due to unavailability of low CC HEV while 2-4% increase
in car prices due to higher taxes is not significant. However, support
to the demand and profitability may emerge from increasing auto
financing due to falling interest rates and weak Japanese Yen. We
maintain ‘Market weight’ stance on the sector with ‘Hold’ on both
PSMC and INDU.
Car prices may increase by 2-4%
In addition to broad 1% (3% for unregistered buyers) increase in
GST, govt has also proposed to increase WHT (ranging 33-200%)
and FED (by 100% on above 1800cc cars/SUVs). In the Budget,
govt has increase WHT on 1000cc, 1300cc and 1800cc from
Rs10500, Rs16875 and Rs22500 to Rs20000, Rs30000 and Rs75000,
respectively. Further, it is also proposed to increase FED on above
1800cc cars/SUVs from previous 5% to 10%. Though, the increase
looks phenomenal, but our analysis suggests that prices on 800-
1800cc cars will increase by 2% for registered and individual buyers
(4% for non-registered).

HEV: Not a big issue for the industry
In an effort to improve energy situation in the country, govt has
proposed to provide further relaxation on HEV import. For FY13,
there was 25% rebate on the import of new or used HEV while 2%
monthly depreciation allowance on customs duty as against 1%
for other cars. In Budget FY14, govt has proposed 25%, 50% and
100% rebate on above 1800cc, 1201-1800cc and up to 1200cc,
respectively.However, in international market, HEV prices are quite high
while there are reports that there is no HEV available in below
1200cc segment. Further, HEV cars require high maintenance
in shape of regular change of battery packs. Given that, rebate
in duties/taxes on HEV may not affect demand on locally made
cars, we believe.

Market weight stance maintained
Although imposition of higher taxes on locally made cars will
increase prices by 2-4% but it may not have major impact on
the demand as price increase is nominal and across the board.
Further, WHT on car is also adjustable against final tax liability.
Support to the demand and profitability is expected to emerge
from increasing auto financing due to low interest rates and
weak Japanese Yen.

Topline Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on July 06, 2013, 12:44:24 AM
Pakistan car sales in FY14 to improve after bad FY13 – Topline Research
 

By: Muhammad Tahir Saeed,
+9221-35303331 Ext: 133
tahir.saeed@topline.com.pk
Topline Securities (Private) Limited
On volumetric front, last fiscal year remained quite painful for Pakistan’s automobile sector due to ban on CNG kits, suspension of two cars (Coure and Alto) due to Euro-II compliance, termination of taxi scheme and massive imported inventory of used cars in the market. We expect locally manufactured auto sales (Cars and LCVs) may settle at 135K units in FY13 which are 25% lower than 179K units last year. However auto sales have started to gain momentum and we expect approx. 13k units in Jun’13.

Going forward, we see 20% recovery in Pakistan car sales in FY14. Although recent budgetary measures have resulted in 2-4% additional burden on car buyers, we don’t see major impact on demand in FY14 as the price rise in quite nominal. On the contrary, expected economic recovery and growing auto financing is also expected to keep demand firm in FY14. In the sector, we cover PSMC and INDU and maintain ‘Hold’ on both.

Regulatory issues hit hard in FY13

Pakistan car sales sales are likely to settle at 135k units which are 25% lower than FY12 sales of 179k units.  However, official numbers are still not released. In FY12 auto sales remained quite strong due to Punjab taxi scheme, unrestricted production of CNG fitted cars, Euro-I cars and relatively lower imports of used cars.

However, FY13 started with a negative note of depressed sales due to completion of taxi scheme, Euro-II compliance and CNG kits ban. To recall, PSMC and INDU had to terminate ‘Alto’ and ‘Coure’ to comply with govt regulation of Euro-II compliance. Further, huge inventory of imported used cars in the market also provided fierce competition to the local assemblers.

As cost of car buying was expected to increase from July, we expect June volumetric sales may have remained strong as witnessed in May’13. For FY13, we expect approx. 76k and 37k units for PSMC and INDU, respectively, while 7k and 4k units for Jun’13.

We eye 20% volume growth in FY14

Budgetary measures (higher GST & WHT and tax rebate on HEV) are quite nominal and may not affect Pakistan car sales, we expect. On the contrary, support to the demand may come from reviving auto financing in low interest rate scenario and declining inventory of imported CBU in the market.. To recall, govt reduced maximum age limit of used imported cars to 3 years from 5 years in Dec’12, which resulted in high import cost.

For FY14, we expect 20% growth in the volumetric sales of local assembled cars to about 162K units. Individually, we expect 90K units for PSMC and 46K units for INDU.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 11, 2013, 11:11:04 AM
Normalized FY13 auto sales are flat

Total auto sales (Cars & LCVs) in Jun'13 have clocked in at 13,674 units, up 3%MoM. As a result, total sales in FY13 have registered at 135,311 units, down 24%YoY. That said, excluding the impact of the Punjab Taxi Scheme, FY13 sales represent a decline of 15%YoY while 'normalized' decline tags in at 2%YoY if the impact of the phased-out Alto and Cuore variants is factored in as well. On a company level, PSMC and INDU have posted sales growth of 0.3%MoM and 13%MoM, respectively, while sales for HCAR fell by 4%MoM in Jun'13. On the Tractors front, sales in FY13 clocked in at 50,593 units, up a contained 2%YoY as Jun'13 tractor sales of 6,237 units were up a robust 42%MoM. Going forward, provided the regulatory environment remains stable with respect to imported vehicles, we expect auto sales to grow by 5%YoY - 7%YoY in FY14. We retain our preference for PSMC (CY13F P/E: 6.4x) which offers 16% upside to our TP of PkR178/share. At the same time INDU, which has underperformed the KSE-100 Index by 22%CYTD, appears to have room for catch-up price performance. .

http://research.akdtrade.com/documents/AKD_Daily_July_11_2013.pdf

Normalized auto sales are flat: Total auto sales (Cars & LCVs) in Jun'13 have clocked in at 13,674 units, up 3%MoM. As a result, total sales in FY13 have registered at 135,311 units, down 24%YoY (-2%YoY on normalized basis). The steep reported decline has been driven by i) completion of the Punjab Taxi Scheme, ii) ban on CNG kits and iii) phase-out of the Alto and Coure variants. Going forward, taking our cue from the 35%HoH increase in sales in 2HFY13, we believe total auto sales will depict growth of 5%YoY - 7%YoY in the new fiscal year provided the regulatory environment remains stable i.e. ban on 3+yrs used imported vehicles stays in place. On the Tractor front, sales in FY13 clocked in at 50,593 units, up a contained 2%YoY. In this regard, sales for AGTL and MTL grew by 4.5%YoY and 0.1%YoY, respectively.
HCAR the outperformer in FY13: PSMC's sales declined by 33%YoY to 75,650 units in FY13. That said, excluding the impact of the Punjab Taxi Scheme, FY13 sales represent a decline of 18%YoY while normalized sales are flat if the impact of the phased-out Alto variant is factored in as well. Similarly, INDU's reported FY13 sales of 37,776 units represent a decline of 31%YoY which normalizes to a decline of 25%YoY ex-Cuore. Even this is fairly steep though, which we attribute to lower farmer incomes although the 13%MoM uptick in Jun'13 sales is certainly encouraging. In HCAR's case, FY13 sales of 21,235 units are up 75%YoY driven by the launch of the new Civic and a low base (halt in production last year due to floods in Thailand).
Investment perspective: With latest data suggesting stock of auto loans is up by 10%YoY at end-May'13 (at PkR49.3bn), we are increasingly optimistic regarding the outlook for auto sales, provided the regulatory environment remains benign. In this regard, our top pick PSMC (CY13F P/E: 6.4x) offers 16% upside to our TP of PkR178/share. At the same time INDU, which has underperformed the KSE-100 Index by 22%CYTD, appears to have room for catch-up price performance
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 12, 2013, 11:21:30 AM
INDU displays MoM gains while HCAR and PSMC remain flat
Volumetric sales for INDU gained 13% MoM on the back of 53% increase in Hilux and 20% increase in Fortunner sales. Sales for PSMC remained flat as gains in LCV segment were mitigated by poor performance of passenger car segment. June numbers were least favorable for HCAR as volumes declined 4%MoM, note that volumetric sales for May picked up after a weak April due to pre election violence.

http://www.elixirsec.com/Research/TheBell12072013.pdf?utm_source=Research%2BReports&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BellDownload
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on July 14, 2013, 06:58:18 PM
Motorcycles’ sales slightly lower in FY 13

By Abrar Hamza  
KARACHI: The sales of registered auto-rickshaw and motorcycles sector were slightly lower by 1.0 percent to 820,217 units during financial year (FY) 2012-13 as against 829,893 units in FY 2011-12, revealed Pakistan Auto Manufacturers Association’s (PAMA) data recently.

Meanwhile, on monthly basis total sector sales also remained subdued to 67,190 units in June 2013 as compared to 67,273 units in May 2013 while on yearly basis the cumulative sales of the sector witnessed a slender decline by 3.0 percent as compared with 69,448 units’ sales in June 2012.

Company-wise analysis revealed that Honda remained the market leader also in FY 2012-13 like preceding years as total sales in whole FY improved by 8.0 percent to 635,269 units as compared to 587,866 units in FY 2011-12. However, on monthly basis Honda motorcycles sales declined by 2.0 percent in June 2013 to 52,011 units as against 53,017 units in May 2013 while on yearly basis it increased by 3.50 percent versus 50,255 units’ sales in June 2012.

Yamaha motorcycles grabbed the second position in the local motorcycle market of the country with total sales of 57,364 units in FY 2012-13, depicting 33 percent decline as against 86,000 units in FY 2011-12. On monthly basis total sales of Yamaha Motorcycles declined by 20 percent to 3,214 units in June 2013 as compared to 4,014 units in May 2013 while on yearly basis it also contracted by 47 percent as against of 6,095 units sales in June 2012.

Similarly, Suzuki motorcycles also witnessed 14 percent decline in total sales during FY 2012-13 to 19,512 units as compared to 22,694 units in corresponding FY while on monthly basis sales of Suzuki motorcycles improved by 11 percent to 2,072 units in June 2013 as compared with 1,876 units in May 2013. However, it witnessed 13 percent yearly decline as compared to sales of 2,394 units in June 2012.

The cumulative sales of the Sazgar CNG Rickshaw also witnessed 37 percent decline to 10,347 units during 12 months of FY 2012-13 as against 16,473 units in the same period of last FY 2011-12, mainly due to shortage of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). However, on monthly basis Rickshaw sales of Sazgar increased massively by 61 percent to 1,424 units in June 2013 as compared to 884 units in May 2013 while it also witnessed 20 percent yearly increase in sales as against 1,187 unit sales in June 2012.

On the other hand, scooter-rickshaw or Qingqi’s sales increased 2.0 percent to 3,370 units in last FY as compared to 3,312 units in FY 2011-12. Qingqi three wheelers’ sales increased by 9.0 percent as it sold 24,786 units in outgoing FY as against 22,824 units in FY 2011-12.

Likewise, Habib motorcycles sold 4.0 percent less units in FY 2012-13 to 24,463 motorcycles as compared to 25,399 units in FY 2011-12. Ravi sold 13 percent less motorcycles to 19,211 units in FY 2012-13 as against 22,121 units in corresponding FY. Hero motorcycles witnessed a steep decline of 48 percent in sales to 20,350 units in the said FY as compared to 38,928 units in FY 2011-12.

It is to be noted that the above mentioned data has not covered the whole motorcycles’ sales of the country as other unregistered Chinese brand motorcycles sales’ data was not available.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on July 14, 2013, 08:42:02 PM
non pama bike sales are almost equal to if not more than pama sales
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: M&M on July 20, 2013, 02:31:15 PM
Japan heads to polls: What an Abe party win would mean for yen
http://on.mktw.net/15vEwMs
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on August 05, 2013, 10:35:25 PM
Auto assemblers expect to further rev up positions this fiscal year  

By Our Correspondent / Farhan Zaheer
Published: August 5, 2013


Automakers say that more than anything else, their sales have been affected by the influx of import and that they do not expect any improvements in car sales.

KARACHI: Despite facing daunting challenges like influx of imports and drop in sales, all three leading car assemblers have consolidated their financial positions in the last fiscal year. Against all odds, auto industry is expected to further consolidate its earnings owing to improvement in car sales in the fiscal year 2013-14.

The outlook for the auto industry is positive, as analysts believe that sales are going to pick up momentum in fiscal 2014.

“With declining import of used cars since December 2012, one can expect local auto sales will post an increase of 10-15% by the end of the fiscal year 2013-14,” Atif Zafar, analyst at JS Global Capital said.

Automakers say that more than anything else, their sales have been affected by the influx of import and that they do not expect any improvements in car sales unless the government reduces second-hand imports.

The local auto industry is relieved from the pressure of imported cars as sales of imports is continuously declining since the government reduced the age-limit of used imported cars to three years from five years.

After touching historic peak in fiscal 2012 to 55,000 units, imports in last fiscal declined to 45,378 units, down 21%.

Industry officials say that the stocks of imported cars are declining with every passing month and it will gradually reduce the pressure on sales of locally assembled cars. Imported second-hand cars, models younger than three years, are expensive and have limited sales volumes compared to four and five-year old models.

Another positive aspect for the local auto industry is the cut in interest rates owing to which banks are expected to increase car financing, thus improving locally assembled cars sales. But some analysts believe that banks are still conservative in lending and financing cars at higher interest rates (13-14%) that may not be able to give a big boost as expected to the local car sales.

Analysts say that the local auto industry has also benefitted on the back of depreciating Japanese yen against all major currencies of the world. They say that the yen has depreciated more than 16% against the rupee since October 2012, which has helped improve the quarterly reports of the local auto sector between October 2012 and March 2013. Improvement in margins of auto companies and better outlook attracted investors, which was reflected in share prices of all three companies as they rose sharply since the beginning of the calendar year at the Karachi Stock Exchange.

Pak Suzuki, the leading carmaker with over 60% market share, and Indus Motor were already in profit, while Honda Atlas Cars rebounded to profitability in the fiscal year 2012-13. Honda Atlas Cars that enjoyed record sales in fiscal 2013 is expected to continue enjoying good sales on the back of its recently launched models of Civic and City.

Locally assembled car sales declined significantly by 24% to 135,310 units in fiscal 2013, compared to 179,139 units in fiscal 2012. But this decline in sales was partly because local automakers failed in launching any new car in the economy segment – 1,000cc or below engine capacity vehicles.

Pak Suzuki and Indus Motor felt the heat as they failed to replace their economy cars like Suzuki Alto and Daihatsu Cuore that dented their overall revenues in the year. Resultantly, the vacuum created by the discontinuation of these two models in the first month of fiscal 2013 had been overtaken by imports of up to 1000cc engines.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on August 05, 2013, 10:57:15 PM
Over 1.555mn motorcycles produced in 11 months  

Monday, 05 August 2013
 
Posted by Parvez Jabri  

ISLAMABAD: Over 1.555 motorcycles were manufactured during the first eleven months of the fiscal year 2012-13, showing increase of 2.87 percent against the output of the corresponding period of last year.

On year-on-year basis, the production of motorcycles increased by 4.77 percent in May 2013 when compared to the production of May 2012, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

According to breakup figures, the total production of motorcycles during July-May (2012-13) was recorded at 1,555,502 units against the production of 1,512,104 units recorded during July-May (2011-12).

On the other hand, the production of motorcycles increased from 142,262 units in May 2012 to 149,001 units in May 2013, the data revealed.

On the other hand, the production of jeeps and cars decreased by 21.53 percent to 108,986 units in July-May 2012-13 against the production of 138,883 units recorded during July-May 2011-12.

The production of jeeps and cars in May 2013 was recorded at 12,966 units against the production of 14,179 units during May 2012, showing negative growth of 8.55 percent.

Similarly, the production of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) decreased from 18,959 units in first eleven months of FY2011-12 to 12,908 units in FY2012- 13, showing negative growth of 31.92 percent.

On year-on-year basis, the production of LCVs decreased by 32.82 percent to 1,277 units in May 2013 against the production of 1,901 units in May 2012, according to the PBS data.

It is pertinent to mention here that the country's overall Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) has registered positive growth of 4.17 percent during the first eleven months of the fiscal year 2012-13 over the corresponding period of the last financial year.

On year-on-year basis, the LSM grew by 2.65 percent during the month of May 2013 when compared to the same month of last year, according to the data.

The Quantum Index Numbers (QIN) of LSM stood at 117.55 points during July-May (2012-13) against 112.85 points during July-May (2011-12).

During the period under review, industries monitored by Oil Companies Advisor Committee (OCAS) registered increase of 0.81 percent growth while the indices of Ministry of Industries grew by 1.68 percent and that of Provincial Bureaus of Statistics by 1.67 percent.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 14, 2013, 02:37:35 PM

New fiscal year brings no good news for auto sector as sales plummet  (http://tribune.com.pk/story/589895/new-fiscal-year-brings-no-good-news-for-auto-sector-as-sales-plummet/)

The first month of the fiscal year 2013-14 brought bad news for the local auto industry as car sales declined by a significant 23% in July 2013, compared to June 2013 –the last month of the outgoing fiscal 2013, according to the latest data revealed by the Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association (Pama).
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 15, 2013, 03:59:18 PM

The Bell
 
Autos: July numbers
Slow start to FY14
Volumetric sales for Jul-13 clocked in at 10,579 units marginally up 1% YoY but down 23% MoM. Sales remain weak going into FY14 as the glut of used cars still remains in the backdrop of weak demand. The sales numbers belie expectation of a rebound in 1QFY14 on account of slowdown in imports after restrictive import regime that came into effect in Dec-12. We remain skeptical on a rapid rebound and have assumed volumetric growth to clock in the range of 2-5% in FY14 and CY14 for INDU and PSMC respectively.
A decade of contradictions
Auto sales grew at a 5 year CAGR of 80% from 2002 to 2007 after which they declined at a 6 year CAGR of 6% from FY07 to FY13. Stellar growth in earlier part of the last decade was attributed to low base effect. Note that car density stood at 6.5 (per 1000 people) in 2001 which now stands 17.2 (per thousand people) at par with India. Thus we believe growth in auto volumes would remain muted in the absence of fundamental economic improvement.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 16, 2013, 11:07:24 AM
Auto sales- Awaiting a spark to kick start future volumes!

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA) has released auto sales and production figures for Jul-13. In today's Value Seeker, we present an analysis of the auto sales performance during Jul-13.
Auto sales step up by 1%YoY, down by 22%MoM in Jul-13
According to PAMA figures, total car, LCV & pickup sales remained almost flat posting a growth of ~1%YoY to 10,534 units as compared to 10,435 units in the same period last year. In the cars segment, a major upturn was observed, as sales increased by 3.2%YoY to 9,288 units as compared to 8,996 units in Jul-12. However, LCV & Pickup segment sales have gone down by significant 13.2%YoY to 1,246 units. The main factors behind increasing car sales were i) reduction in used imported cars age limited to 3 years from 5 years previously ii) prevailing monsoon season and iii) increased tax rate in budget FY14. During the month of Jul-13, the total sales of auto sector registered a massive decline of 22%, whereas the sales of car and LCVs fell by 20%MoM and 35%MoM respectively.
The 800cc segment, accounting for 31% of overall sales, grew by 8.2%YoY. Pak Suzuki remained the leader as sales of Bolan and Mehran variant remained skewed up by 30% YoY to 989 units and 3.7%YoY to 2,299 units respectively. Unit sales for the 1000cc engine capacity segment also continued its upward trend registering an increase of 7.9% YoY to 1,225k units; however Suzuki's Cultus was the only variant existing in this segment. The 1300cc segment remained the only segment where customers could choose cars according their choice as both 800cc and 1000cc segment consisted of only a single variant. During Jul-13 1300cc and above segment's sales were down by 1%YoY to 4,775 units, Indus Corolla recorded a decline of 3.9% to 2,368k units, likewise, Suzuki Liana and Swift witnessed a decline in sales of 80% to 5 units and 36%YoY to 440 units. However, Honda City and Civic supported the sales of 1300cc and above segment as their sales grew by 58%YoY to 800 units and 1.6%YoY to 1162 units respectively.
Recommendation
Currently, Indus Motor is trading at a PE of 9.98x with dividend yield of 6.0% for FY14. Its competitor, Pak Suzuki (PSMC), is trading at a PE of 11.6x with a dividend yield of 2.2% CY13. We recommend 'Hold' on both INDU and PSMC with Dec-13 target prices of Rs342/sh. and Rs157/sh. respectively.

Investcap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on August 19, 2013, 10:34:35 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/3592:auto-sector-everything-but-top-line/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 10, 2013, 07:52:30 PM
Pakistan auto sales in 2MFY14 increases by 4%

Pakistan car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during 2MFY14 stood at 21,675 units, up by 4% compared to 20,820 units of last period.

Auto sales during August stood at 11,096 units, up by 7% compared to last August.

Sales were depressed in July due to pre-buying by dealers and individuals in June. Now the impact of pre-buying is diminishing and sales started to pick-up the pace in August.

Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales during 2MFY14 increased by 0.5% to 11,679 units as against 11,617 units sold in the same period last year.

Indus Motors sold 5,817 units in 2MFY14, down 5.9% from 6,179 units sold last period. During the period ‘Corrola’ sales declined by 5% to 4,995 units and Hilux declined by 14% to 731.

Topline Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on September 11, 2013, 12:45:00 AM
http://urdu.aaj.tv/business/2013/09/10/136995_4_story.html
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 11, 2013, 12:03:36 PM
Auto Sector: Aug'13 Sales Volumes Update

According to latest data released by PAMA, Aug'13 industry volumes (Cars+LCVs) increased by an encouraging 7%YoY/5%MoM to 11,096 units. Tractors sales for Aug’13 recorded at 1,938 units, up by 48.9%MoM but lower by 32%YoY. Coming back to auto sales, we believe the sequential improvement in sales volumes may be attributed to the continued increase in auto financing where the outstanding stock of auto credit has risen by +14.8%YoY/1.9%MoM in Jul'13 to PkR51.4bn.

PSMC: Sold 5,982 units in Aug'13, up by 5.0%MoM but lower by 0.3%YoY.The sequential increase was primarily driven by higher sales of the Swift and Bolan models while the Cultus and Mehran variants disappointed. PSMC (CY13F P/E: 5.9x) remains our preferred play in the auto sector where our TP of PkR178/share offers 25% upside.

INDU: Sales increased by 1.0%MoM but were lower by 5.5%YoY with volumes of 2,923 units in Aug'13. The sequential increase was largely driven by higher Corolla sales while sales for the recently introduced Fortuner have simmered down with just 46 units sold in the previous month. We are in the process of updating our investment case for INDU and will update investors shortly.

HCAR: Relative outperformer with volumes growing by 8.4%MoM to 2,127 units, largely attributed to sales of Civic (+19.4%MoM to 955 units) while City sales remained flattish.

Tractors: Sales of 1,938 units in Aug'13 are up by 48.9%MoM but lower by 32%YoY. Drilling down, while AGTL's sales have continued to come off (-11%MoM to 516 units), volumes for MTL almost doubled sequentially to 1,422 units.

AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on September 11, 2013, 12:15:15 PM
https://docs.google.com/gview?url=http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sale-2011.pdf&chrome=true


motorcycle sales of smaller members seems to have stabilized.
atlh sales flat. psmc bike sales improved considerably

i hope psmc actually sold some of their expensive imported bikes, unpar tu fit margin hoga

atlh will post very strong quarter again.  ;)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 11, 2013, 09:15:23 PM

The Bell
 
Autos: Strong LCV volumes lead recovery

2MFY14 sales up 4% YoY
As per numbers released by PAMA, Auto sales for 2MFY14 clocked in at 21,675 units, up 4% YoY. Sales for Aug-13 increased by 7% YoY and 5% MoM. The increase is attributable to 11% YoY hike in LCV volumes and 5% increase in 1300cc car sales. Note that 2MFY14 sales for passenger cars increased by a mere 1% YoY.
HCAR sales bounce back while INDU and PSMC remain flat
Sales for HCAR increased by 41% YoY in Aug-13 primarily due to low base effect. Industry car sales were also up 8% MoM which could be explained by lower sales in Jul-13 due to pre-buying prior to GST hike in the budget. Volumetric sales of INDU were recorded at 5,817, down 6% YoY while PSMC sales settled at 11,679 units, up a mere 1% YoY.
Investment recommendation
Our Jun-14 PT of PKR163/share for PSMC offers an upside of 14% along with a dividend yield of 2.6%. Our Jun-14 PT of PKR362/share for INDU offers an upside of 9% along with a dividend yield of 7.5%. We thus recommend HOLD on both stocks!

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: umer on September 11, 2013, 10:53:46 PM
Autos: Sector headwinds keep stock prices muted

Auto sales saw an increase of 4.1% in 2MFY13 (+6.8% in Aug-13), mainly led by low base for Honda cars which saw 41% YoY jump in sales. In contrast, PSMC & Indus Motors saw sluggish sales in 2MFY14, at +0.5% & -5.9%, respectively.

Sector stock performances have been far from exciting in last 3-months, with PSMC underperforming (-10% rel. to index) and INDU remaining flat.

Full-year dividend attraction (its all-time high 60% pay-out) and realized gross margin improvement in FY13 has resulted in Indus stock price performing relatively better than peer (flat relative to index in last 3-months).

We attribute the muted stock moves to growing headwinds for the auto sector: (1) post-budget price hike and (2) PKR/USD depreciation partially wiping off gains in YTD JPY/USD. Increasing inflationary pressure, and outcome of floods shall remain looming threats to auto demand this year.

In this backdrop, we remain skeptical on recent launch of Xli Limited Edition which may not be enough to provide much needed boost to sales this year.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 17, 2013, 10:55:52 AM
Atlas Autos Limited was formed in 1962 as a result of technical collaboration between Honda Motors, Japan and Atlas Group (Shirazi Investments Pvt Limited). In 1965, the Company became the first-two wheeler manufacturer to be listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange after it commenced commercial production with an annual capacity of 6,000 units.

After the loss of its East Pakistan arm in the 1971 war, the Company heavily invested in localisation of imported components and achieved production of 18,000 units by 1979. In 1988, Honda Motor Company, Japan acquired a 10% stake in Atlas Autos Limited and, after its merger with Panjdyara Limited (another Shirazi Group subsidiary) in 1991, the Company took its present name of Atlas Honda Limited (ATLH) Pakistan.

THE GROUP Today, Atlas is a diversified group dealing in engineering, power generation, and financial services and trading. It consists of seven public limited companies, of which four are quoted on the Stock Exchanges in Pakistan, and seven private limited companies. Atlas shareholders' equity now stands at 30 billion rupees; assets have increased to 80 billion rupees; personnel strength to 7,500 and annual sales have crossed 100 billion rupees. Its associated companies include Atlas Battery, Atlas Engineering, and Honda Atlas Cars, among others.

DEALERSHIP NETWORK To expand its reach to the customers, the Company has established a wide network of 1,600 sales service and spare-parts dealers. In addition, the Company has also set up warranty and training centers in Karachi and Lahore.

The Company currently sells CD-70, Pridor, CG-125 and Deluxe under its premium brand name Honda. Apart from catering to the local market, the Company also exports its products to Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

In order to achieve self-sufficiency in its motorcycle manufacturing operations, Atlas group recently signed a joint venture with DENSO Corporation with an aim to produce superior quality motorcycle parts in the country. The new company, Atlas Hi-tech, plans to commence operations from October CY13.

MARKET SHARE The Company maintains a market share of more than 40 percent in the two-wheeler category, and is recognised as a market leader in terms of brand recognition, high quality, technological innovation and country wide dealership network. However, Japanese manufacturers (Atlas Honda and Pak Suzuki) have lost market share in recent years, from 80 percent in 1999-2000 to 46 percent in 2009-2010.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW FY12-FY13 Company launched a new model in 100CC category, "Pridor". Test phase results indicate that the model has been well-received by the market.

The Company also launched EURO-II compliant model of CG 125, which registered a 23 percent growth over its previous model. CG-125 has found a niche among the younger population in the premium segment.

PROFITABILITY ATLH witnessed a YoY unit sales growth of five percent in the Financial Year ending March 31 2013. This translated into revenue and gross profit growth of 11 and 33 percent, respectively. Operating and net profit margin remained stable at about five and three percent, respectively.

In response to high competition in the traditional CD-70 category, the Company targeted a better sales-mix strategy by strengthening its position in the premium segment. As a result, it was successful in maintaining its CAGR of 15 percent over a period of last six years.

Sales and marketing expenses grew by massive 25 percent as a result of aggressive marketing and promotion of new products. SG&A expenses form major chunk of company's operating expenses, despite efforts at cost-cutting.

LIQUIDITY The Company became debt-free in FY2011 and has since maintained zero borrowing cost. Its free cash flow from operations stood at Rs 2.6 billion, more than 1.25 times of its net income. Its payout ratio has inched forward by three percent to 52 percent, compared to last year. The Company's net working capital also registered a growth of 37 percent with an improved current ratio.

POSITION IN 1Q FY13-FY14 AND FUTURE PROSPECTS Profitability position of the Company remained sound with a 28 percent growth in gross profit and 40 percent growth in the bottom line. However, continuing the trend of FY 2012-2013, growth in sales volume was mostly witnessed in urban areas, with depressed sales in rural areas due to reduced liquidity of the agriculture sector.

OPPORTUNITIES Given increasing petrol and CNG prices, load management of CNG and stalled auto financing, low-end consumers are more likely to switch from cars to motorcycles. Given the healthy outlook for the segment, Atlas Honda (ATLH) is reportedly considering investing $50mn to increase motorcycle capacity to one million units per year from the current capacity of 750,000 units per year. In FY2011, ATLH invested $35 million to increase capacity by 25 percent.

RISKS AND THREATS Increasing competition in the high volume 70 CC segment, eroding purchasing power of the rural areas, low barriers to entry for new entrants, depreciation of Pak rupee against US dollar, and smuggled auto-parts pose challenges to ATLH market position in the future.

Buisness Recorder Report on Atlas Honda (http://www.brecorder.com/brief-recordings/0/1231790/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 24, 2013, 11:28:51 PM
Auto part manufacturers cry foul (http://tribune.com.pk/story/608306/sales-tax-auto-part-manufacturers-cry-foul/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 03, 2013, 12:59:44 AM
Regulatory body: ECC panel to revisit automobile policy (http://tribune.com.pk/story/612663/regulatory-body-ecc-panel-to-revisit-automobile-policy/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 04, 2013, 11:57:21 AM
Car assemblers: FY14 Volumes growth revised to 6%

Car assemblers in Pakistan have borne a lot in last fiscal year due to significant imports of used cars, EURO-II compliance etc. Further, increased costs coupled with inability to timely pass on the cost kept hurting earnings of these companies. Resultantly, volumes and profitability of 3 major car assemblers (PSMC, INDU, HCAR) declined by 24% and 10% in FY13, respectively.

Initially, we were of the view that car sales of local assemblers will grow by 20% in FY14. However, considering higher taxes, rising inflation and slower economic growth projections, we believe that volumetric growth will remain restricted to around 6%. Recent hike in car prices along with already incorporated increased taxes is likely to hurt the purchasing power of the buyers going forward.

topline
We are firm on our thinking that profits will be healthy for car assemblers in FY14. We believe that the weakness in JPY will be the major input in the growth in addition to efforts to maintain high gross margins by increasing prices. In 1QFY14, we expect that growth in passenger cars & LCV sales of local assemblers may remain at 8.4% YoY to 33k units.

Rising car prices and Inflation to affect sales

FY13 started with a negative note of depressed sales due to completion of taxi scheme, Euro-II compliance and CNG kits ban. To recall, PSMC and INDU had to terminate ‘Alto’ and ‘Coure’ to comply with govt regulation of Euro-II compliance. Further, huge inventory of imported used cars in the market also provided fierce competition to the local assemblers. In FY13, country imported about 46k units.

Initially, we were of the view that demand of local car assemblers will grow by 20% in FY14 on the back of slower used car imports, expected economic recovery and reviving auto financing. We still believe that buyers will divert back to local assemblers in FY14 as govt has reduced the age limit of imported used cars from 5 to 3 years which has effectively increase prices of cars. However, expectation of rising interest rates in FY14, CPI higher than budget target along with slower economic growth projections are expected to affect demand negatively .

For FY14, we expect volumetric growth of locally assembled cars may remain restricted to 6% to 143k. Individually, we expect 77K units for PSMC, 40K units for INDU and 25k units for HCAR in FY14.

2014 Projected EPS: INDU RS52.6, PSMC Rs21.2

Though we have revised down our volumetric growth targets, we are still firm on growth in profits of car assembler. Prime impetus to the growth is likely to be provided by declining JPY which has increased margins of these companies. Further, strategy to timely pass on cost pressure to keep margins healthily is also likely to help profits.

For INDU, we expect revenues growth of 8% to Rs69bn along with the 125bps improvement in gross margins to 10.5%. We expect profit of INDU will increase by 23% to Rs4.1bn (EPS Rs52.6) in FY14.

For 2013, against 16% expected decline in PSMC revenues to Rs48.9bn, we expect 2014 revenues will increase by 11%. On margins side, we expect that 5.9% gross margin of 2013 may remain stable at 5.8% in 2014. We expect PSMC to post profits of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs22.2) in 2013 which may decline to Rs1.7bn (EPS Rs21.2) in 2014. To recall, 2013 profits include one time gain of Rs275mn (Rs 3.3 per share) on old motor cycle plant sale.

We cover PSMC and INDU in auto sector and maintain market weight stance on the scrips with the target prices of Rs140 and Rs325, respectively.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 05, 2013, 11:37:07 AM
Tractor industry in serious crisis (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\10\05\story_5-10-2013_pg5_7)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 09, 2013, 02:51:01 AM
ECC meeting: Locally assembled cars are costly, based on old technology  (http://tribune.com.pk/story/615405/ecc-meeting-locally-assembled-cars-are-costly-based-on-old-technology/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on October 09, 2013, 09:17:53 AM
ECC meeting: Locally assembled cars are costly, based on old technology  (http://tribune.com.pk/story/615405/ecc-meeting-locally-assembled-cars-are-costly-based-on-old-technology/)

a few civics and vigos "donated" to them, and they will change their stance ..
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 09, 2013, 09:29:56 AM
ECC meeting: Locally assembled cars are costly, based on old technology  (http://tribune.com.pk/story/615405/ecc-meeting-locally-assembled-cars-are-costly-based-on-old-technology/)

a few civics and vigos "donated" to them, and they will change their stance ..

 :laugh:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 12, 2013, 02:16:54 PM
      Auto: 1QFY14 sales up 7.5%

§  Pakistan’s locally assembled car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) increased to 32,841 units during 1QFY14, up 7.5% compared to 30,541 units in the same period last year.

 

§  During Sep 2013, sales volumes remained stable at 11,166 units, which are up 1% from last month and 15% compared to last Sep 2012.

 

§  Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales during 1QFY14 increased by 1.7% to 17,966 units as against 17,659 units sold in the same period last year. However, car sales surged by 5.1% to 6,287 units in Sep 2013 compared to last month and by 4.1% from same period last year.

 

§  During 1QFY14, Indus Motor (INDU) sales has improved to 8,419 units, 1.4% up compared to last year. Its flag ship ‘Corrola’ sales are up 1.1% to 7,109 units as against 7,032 units in the same period last year. Declining trend continued in Sep 2013 as sales for the month declined by 11% to 2,602 units versus 2,923 units in Aug 2013.

 

§  Honda car sales surged by 43% to 6,304 units in 1QFY14 versus same period last year, mainly due to new civic sales. In 1QFY14, sales of civic increased by a massive 87% YoY while city sales rose by 20% YoY. Massive rise in civic sales is due to low civic sales in Aug 2012 before new model launch.

 

§  As sales is in line with our expectation, the numbers bring no change in our base case assumptions. We maintain ‘Market weight’ on the sector and maintain ‘Hold’ for PSMC and INDU.   

  Topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 12, 2013, 02:26:01 PM
Car Sales picked up by 8% YoY in 3MFY14

·         As per the fresh numbers, locally manufactured car sales (including LCVs and Jeeps) stood at 32,841 units in 3MFY14 against 30,541 units, 8% YoY growth.


·         Delving deeper, the overall growth continued to be driven by improved sales of HCAR while PSMC sales grew by a mere 2% to 17,966 units. On the other hand, INDU sales increased by a minor 1% to 8,419 units.


·         During this period, HCAR sales rose by a significant 43% to 6,304 units benefiting from higher sales growth of ‘Civic’. Subsequently, HCAR’s market share climbed to 20% in the period under review.

·         In Sep’13, car sales stood at 11,166 units, up 15% from 9,721 units in the same month last year. Following the diminishing effect of pre-budget buying seen last month, car sales improved by 1% on a MoM basis.

·         Amongst the individual companies, PSMC sales improved in comparison to last year while showcasing an improvement of 5% from last month, and strengthening its market share to 55%. INDU witnessed 11% decline from last month while enjoying a growth of 23% from same month last year.

·         HCAR sales improved by 4% on a MoM basis while increasing by a substantial 45% compared to the same month last year.
 

·         Though the year has started with dampened sales for the auto sector, we expect the numbers to show a gradual improvement going forward as the standing inventory of imported cars depletes further.

  SHAJAR
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 12, 2013, 09:00:59 PM
Locally assembled cars’ sales up by 8% in Q1 of FY14 (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\10\12\story_12-10-2013_pg5_1)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 12, 2013, 09:28:29 PM
Tractor sales go down (http://www.dawn.com/news/1049118/tractor-sales-go-down)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 14, 2013, 12:54:55 PM
Auto Sector: Sep’13 Sales Volumes
As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), auto industry volumes (Cars & LCVs) for the month of Sep'13 increased by 0.6%MoM/14.9%YoY to stand at 11.2k units. Tractor sales in Sep'13 continued with their disappointing trend declining by 9.4%MoM/32.2%YoY. Coming back to auto sales, we attribute the the annual improvement numbers to i) increased sales of HCAR following release of its new Civic towards the end of FY13 and ii) continued increase in auto financing where the outstanding stock of auto credit has risen by 16.4%YoY/1.5%MoM in Aug'13 to PkR52.2bn. At current levels, we remain 'Overweight' on the Auto sector.
 PSMC: Sold 6,287 units in Sep'13, up 5.1%MoM and 4.1%YoY. The higher sales were primarily driven by increased sales of Mehran (+16.1%) and Cultus (+8.8%) while Ravi sales disappointed (-ve 16.3%). At current levels, PSMC is trading at CY13F and CY14F P/E of 5.2x and 5.8x, respectively. We retain our 'Buy' stance with a TP of PkR178/share.
 INDU: Sep’13 sales disappointed at 2,602 units, depicting a decline of 11.0%MoM but were up by 22.7%YoY. On a cumulative basis, 1QFY14 sales declined by 29.5%QoQ owing to i) launch of the new Civic by HCAR as well as anticipation regarding the new Corolla to be launched in 2HFY14 and ii) decline in Fortuner sales by 79.3%QoQ owing to increased indirect taxes on luxury vehicles in the FY14 Budget.
 HCAR: Continued with its strong performance with volumes growing by 4.1%MoM to 2,215 units. The increase in sales is largely attributed to increased Civic sales (+6.9%MoM) while sales of City were also up an encouraging 1.9%MoM.
 Tractors: Sales of 1,755 units in Sep'13 are down by 9.4%MoM and 32%YoY. Drilling down, while AGTL's sales volumes were up by 20%MoM/6%YoY with 620 units, volumes for MTL declined by 20%MoM and 43%YoY to 1,135 units.

AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 21, 2013, 06:16:37 PM
Auto Sector Review......BUY stance for HCAR and PSMC
Auto sectors sales recorded 7.9% growth on YoY basis, where in almost remain unchanged on MoM basis
Auto sales of the industry witnessed substantial increase of 7.9% YoY to 32,689 units in 1QFY14 as against the sales of 30,308 units in the corresponding period last year. Conversely, on monthly basis, industry sales have posted slightly growth of 0.7% in sales to 11,104 units in the month of Sep 13 in comparison of 11,032 units in the previous month. Overall auto industry has observed incremental sales with lower rate, which does not create the good picture for auto industry.
Auto industry sales is surrounded by many of the hurdles starting from the CNG shortage problem, consistently increasing petroleum prices, poor law and order situation and also inflation in the country.
Launch of new models supported the HCAR sales on YoY Basis
For Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) 1QFY14 was fabulous, company sold 6,304 units of cars increased by 42.6% against the last year same period selling figure of 4,421 units. Observing the monthly sales, company reported 4.1% higher sales of 2,215 units in month of September against 2,127 units in August.
Diminishing Purchasing power in middle income group
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) has witnessed a 1.7% growth in sales on YoY basis to 17,966 units in 1QFY14 against 17,659 units in 1QFY13. Whereas company's sales increased by 5.1% on MoM basis. PSMC produces the vehicles which are usually purchased by the middle income population, due to under pressure law and order situation and increasing petroleum products, and lowering purchasing power were the main reasons of steady sales of PSMC.

INDU sales was badly affected on MoM
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) witnessed a 2.3% YoY increase in sales to 8,419 units in 1QFY14 as against 8,228 units in the same period last year. Whereas INDU recorded 11% on MoM decline due to less preference of customers in buying of Toyota Corolla. However Toyota Hilux and Toyota Fortuner supported the sales of INDU. We see a prosperous future if company come up with new cars targeting the low to middle income group in place of Coure or coming up with Hybrid cars.
Valuation:
Auto industry is one of emerging industries in Pakistan; with three major players PSMC leads the industry in terms of sales. Based on expected earnings PSMC and HCAR yield PE multiple of 4.5x each, which makes BUY stance for both companies and INDU yields 7.5x and we maintain SELL.

Standard Capital Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Dhillon on October 23, 2013, 06:17:59 AM
Automobiles production falls by 7.57% in 2MFY14

KARACHI: The production of automobiles in the country remained unimpressive during the first two months of the current fiscal year 2013-14 as it declined by 7.57 percent when compared to growth of 3.85 percent in the corresponding period of last fiscal.
According to the provisional figures released by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday, the overall production of the automobiles sector decreased by 7.57 percent in the first two months of current fiscal year with the adjusted weight of 6.56 points while the tractors production contributed mainly towards this decline by registering a huge fall of 52.36 percent in production during the period under review as against the gigantic growth of 184.55 percent in the corresponding period of last fiscal year.
Experts attributed this decline in automobiles production mainly to energy shortage and rising inflation where both factors combined suppressed the demand of the automobiles products in the country.
Similarly, jeeps and cars’ production decreased by 6.24 percent in the first two months of this year as against negative 4.26 percent in the corresponding period of last year.
However, motorcycles sector witnessed 5.23 percent decline in the period under review as against decrease of 7.02 percent in the same period last year.
Light commercial vehicles’ (LCVs) production in the country also remained on the downward trajectory during first two months of this year as the overall production of this item contracted by 15.51 percent while the production of LCVs witnessed a sufficient growth of 9.78 percent in the corresponding period of last fiscal year.
Trucks manufacturing sector witnessed a minimal growth of 3.65 percent during the period under review as against the negative growth of 5.19 percent in the corresponding period of last year.
Buses production sector also gained ample demand as it witnessed an increase of 2.32 percent in the July to August period of 2013 while the production of this sector remained outstanding in the corresponding months of FY 2012-13 when the production of this item in the country increased massively by 64.91 percent

http://epapers.com.pk/ePaper/Daily-Times/2
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 23, 2013, 08:25:32 AM
Ministry working on new auto industry policy (http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/1243687:ministry-working-on-new-auto-industry-policy/?date=2013-10-23)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 27, 2013, 01:58:05 AM
Finalising Auto Industry Policy (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\10\27\story_27-10-2013_pg5_1)

Govt body takes auto industry stakeholders on board
* Meeting to finalise policy to be held tomorrow

By Abrar Hamza

KARACHI: The apex economic decision-making body formed by the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) has called auto industry's stakeholders to finalise the next Auto Industry Policy (AIP).

In this regard, the meeting will be held tomorrow (Monday), at the office of minister for water and power under his chairmanship, according to the invitation letter sent to the different automobile associations by the Engineering Development Board (EDB) of Ministry of Industries and Production.

To elicit proposals and solicit concurrence of the stakeholders, a meeting of aforementioned committee has been scheduled with All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA), Karachi chairman, Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Karachi chairman and Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM), Lahore chairman.

The ECC vide its decision on Case No ECC 132/16/2013 dated October 2, 2013 constituted a committee comprising Minister for Water and Power (convener), Board of Investment chairman (deputy convener), industries and production secretary, Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) chairman and EDB CEO to finalise the AIP Draft within a period of 45 days and submit the same to the ECC.

APMDA Chairman H M Shahzad said that the used car industry is not against the assemblers. "We only want that the Pakistani customer should have the liberty to buy a car of his choice," he added.

He further added, "We are not looking for any favours from the government, car dealers only demand a level-playing field for everybody and continuity in policies without such actions as the recent CGO 13/12 which has jeopardised billions of rupees of overseas Pakistanis and pitched the dealers and local industry against each other."

If such action is inevitable, sufficient reaction time should be given to the stakeholders especially where the Pakistani public's interest is involved, he added.

Low-priced family cars remain a distant dream even after 30 years, local assemblers have increased their vehicles' prices by almost 100 percent during the last few years alone on the pretext of rupee devaluation, he added.

He said that locally assembled cars are booked on 100 percent advance payment with delivery time of after four to six months and taxes are however transferred to the government at the time of delivery.

The total advance money received by the local assemblers last fiscal year with 170,000 units sold is Rs 130 billion, this is an unprecedented feature in any business as this amount is alone sufficient to finance the whole operations of the assemblers, said Shahzad.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 27, 2013, 11:23:21 AM
Asif-led panel to meet auto sector representatives tomorrow (http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/1245032:asif-led-panel-to-meet-auto-sector-representatives-tomorrow/?date=2013-10-27)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on October 28, 2013, 09:27:27 PM
http://www.express.pk/story/189896/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 31, 2013, 10:34:28 AM
Automobile sector’s sales : Civic shines, rest tarnish in 9 months of 2013 (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\10\31\story_31-10-2013_pg5_7)

KARACHI: Sale of locally assembled passenger cars, excluding Honda Civic, remained unimpressive during nine months of current year as it decreased by 4.0 percent to 96,782 units as compared to 100,692 units sold in the same period of last year.

Different variants of locally assembled passenger cars sales including all major brands did not pick up as all eight passengers cars' variants witnessed lower sales as compared to last year, besides City and Civic.

This year Honda Civic gained sheer confidence of car lovers as a total of 9,007 units of this variant were sold till the end of September 2013, which is 137 percent more as against 3,798 units sold last year. Similarly, Honda City also succeeded to impress the consumers by its new models as it sold 10,239 units, in nine months of this year, 74 percent up as compared to total 5,881 units sold in corresponding period of last year.

Suzuki, the leading auto company in Pakistan, has witnessed an unexciting year in terms of its passenger cars sales as its only one product observed positive sales figures, while remaining four variants showed negative trend as compared to last year corresponding period.

Suzuki Company's sales sheet shows that only Cultus witnessed 5.0 percent improvement as a total of 10,466 units of this car were sold in nine months of the current year as compared to 9,989 units sold last year. Bolan sales decreased by 35 percent to 10,543 units as against 16,305 units in the same period of 2012. Mehran witnessed 3.0 percent decline to 2,478 units in nine months period of 2013 as compared to 2,550 units sold in same period last year while newly launched Swift car, after initial good sales, failed this year to impress cars users as a total of 4,369 units of this model were sold, registering a massive decline of 23 percent as compared to 5,695 units sold in the same period of 2012.

Likewise, Liana contracted by 72 percent to only 84 units sold in nine months of 2013 as against 305 units sold in the same period of 2012 due to end of production of this variant by the makers.

Corolla is steadily losing its top brand position in Pakistan for last couple of years due to availability of other used imported Corolla brands in the markets, as during the nine months period of this year Corolla observed notable 18 percent decline. The under review auto brand managed to sell only 27,288 units this year as compared to 33,219 units sold.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 11, 2013, 05:07:25 PM
Automobile: Car sales declined by 11%MoM in October
 As per latest data released by PAMA (Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association), Pakistan local car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) have declined by 11%MoM in Oct 2013 to 9,955 units while they are up 6% compared to Oct 2012. Decline in car sales in the month of October versus previous month is primarily attributed to extended Eid holidays.


 Cumulatively, Pakistan local car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) for 4-months (Jul-Oct) FY14 have increased to 42,796 units up 7% compared to 39,938 units in the same period last year.


 Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales during 4MFY14 increased by 3.4% to 23,522 units versus 22,753 units sold in the same period last year. In Oct 2013, company’s sales stood at 5,556 units up 9% from 5,094 unit in the same month last year while have declined by 12% from 6,287 units last month.


 Similarly, during 4MFY13, Indus Motor (INDU) sales remained stable to 11,014 units, 0.1% up compared to same period last year. However, on monthly basis, INDU car sales have shown stability by selling 2,595 units in Oct 2013, down 0.3%MoM.


 Among three major players in the auto industry, HCAR posted a major decline of 22%MoM by selling 1,720 units in the month of Oct 2013 whereas up 8%YoY. In 4MFY14, HCAR has shown a growth of 34% to 8,024 compared to 6,009 units in the same period last year.


 As decline in sales already incorporated in valuations, the numbers bring no change in our base case assumptions. We maintain ‘Hold’ on PSMC and INDU.

Topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 12, 2013, 12:51:26 PM
Lower auto sales in Oct-13 hinged on Eid Holidays

Written as on November 12, 2013

 

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released the automobile production and sales figures for Oct-13. In today's Value Seeker, we present our analysis of the auto production and sales performance during 4MFY14 coupled with our recommendation on universe scrips.

Auto sales down by 11% MoM to 11.2k units

On a monthly basis, auto sales remained depressed during Oct-13 as the same slid by 11%MoM to only 11.2K units, however, production witnessed an increase of 7%MoM to 11,291 units. The declining trend in the sales volume was essentially led by the Eid holidays during the month.

A rising trend was witnessed in auto sales during 4MFY14 as total unit sales stepped up by 7.2%YoY to 42,769 units along with 2%YoY increase in total production to 43,355 units. The rising trend was backed by the revision in the auto import policy as the government reduced the age limit of used imported cars to 3years. Moreover, a low interest rate scenario coupled with a positive outlook on the economy led by formation of the new government contributed to the increase in auto sales during 4MFY14.

Dewan Motors resumes 'Shehzore' production

Dewan Motors has started producing and selling Shehzore Trucks, as during last two months the company has produced 450 trucks and sold 47 trucks. Previously, the company had discontinued the production of its trucks in Sep-10. However, the resumption of production is expected to bode well for the company's profitability. According to sources, the company is planning to produce 600 trucks to facilitate an order which is expected to fulfill by Nov-13. The company has booked an order on the back of last available inventory.

New models to change future scenario

Two major assemblers, Honda Atlas Cars and Pak Suzuki are planning to introduce their new models. Honda is planning to launch Pakistan's first official hybrid car CR-Z Sports. Moreover, PSMC is also expected to reintroduce its Alto model or new model of Wagon-R this year.

In addition to this, Auto Industry Development Program (AIDP) is expected to be approved by the government soon which will in turn provide a clear direction for the future of the auto sector and also reduce the uncertainty in the market.

Currently, Indus Motor is trading at a PE of 8.7x with dividend yield of 8% for FY14 and Pak Suzuki (PSMC), is trading at a PE of 6.6x with CY14 dividend yield of 4%. We recommend 'Hold' on INDU and 'Buy' on PSMC with Dec-13 target prices of Rs342/sh. and Rs157/sh. respectively.

Investcap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 12, 2013, 04:49:28 PM

The Bell
 
Autos: 4MFY14 sales up 7% YoY
High end passenger cars drive YoY growth
Cumulative volumetric sales for Autos during 4MFY14 clocked in at 42,796 units, up 7% YoY. Sales in Oct-13 were up 6% YoY. Growth was primarily driven by high end (1300cc) passenger cars which registered a 9% YoY growth and accounted for 45% of overall auto sales. Overall, passenger cars registered a 5% YoY increase.
Seasonality dictates MoM decline
Sales for Oct-13 were down 11% MoM, primrialy due to seasonal trend. Note that volumetric sales are generally the weakest during Oct-Dec. HCAR volumes witnessed a steep decline of 22% MoM in volumes, primarily due to 30% decline in Civic sales as the new model surge settled down. PSMC sales dropped by 12% MoM, primarily due to 25% decline in Mehran volumes. INDU which registered weak Sep-13 sales closed flat MoM in Oct-13. Sales for LCV’s took a breather falling 19% MoM and 4% YoY.
Investment case
At current price levels INDU offers an upside of 4% to our Jun-14 PT of PKR347 along with a dividend yield of 7.5%. This translates into a total shareholder return of 11.3% and we have a HOLD stance in INDU. PSMC, at last closing, offers an upside of 21.3% along with dividend yield of 3.7%, taking total shareholder return to 25%. BUY!

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 12, 2013, 09:42:34 PM
Autos: Reverse gear in October; Buy PSMC

Latest data by PAMA indicates auto sales for the month of October depicted a negative trend, declining by 11.3% MoM. Total sales in 4MFY14 increased by 7% YoY to 42,749 units.

We expect sales growth to remain slow in the remaining 2M13 due to year-end effect, low farm income, inflationary pressures and budgetary measures.

Indus is available at attractive FY14E P/E 6.6x and offers 9% D/Y in addition to 13% upside to our PO. We do not rule out near-term pressure weighing on the stock performance because of its higher exposure to PKR/USD where we have witnessed 7% deval since Jul-13.

Trading at 4.8x 2014E earnings, PSMC is our top pick in the sector. We believe that it will eventually emerge as the winner in challenging times. We see PSMC’s earnings growing to PRs26.2/sh in 2014E on strong volumes and improving margins.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 12, 2013, 10:05:02 PM
AKD Daily

Auto Sector: Oct’13 Industry Volume Update

Auto industry sales in Oct'13 have clocked in at 9,955 units, higher by 6%YoY but lower by 11%MoM. Considering auto financing continues to rise (+20%YoY/3%MoM to PkR53.6bn), we attribute sequentially lower sales by OEMs to competition faced from imported variants, particularly as local assemblers have recently raised product prices. Relatively weak Oct'13 sales bring 4MFY14 industry volume offtake to 42,796 units, up by 7%YoY with major impetus provided by HCAR (4MFY14 sales up by 34%YoY). On the tractors front, while combined 4MFY14 sales are lower by 41%YoY, sales increased by a sharp 88%MoM to 3,292 units. This is explained by movements in GST which was 5% last year, 10% at present and is expected to rise to 17% from Jan'14, with sequential tractor sales largely driven by pre-buying in our view. Going forward, while the awaited launch of new models/AIDP can be key catalysts, imported competition continues to pose threats particularly as the IHC has suspended the earlier judgment which declared the auto amnesty scheme illegal. At current levels, our top pick in the Auto space is INDU (TP: PkR400/share).

Weakest month FYTD for Autos: Oct'13 auto sales have clocked in at 9,955 units, up by 6%YoY but lower by 11%MoM to clock in at their lowest monthly level FYTD. As a result, 4MFY14 industry sales have come in at 42,796 units, up by 7%YoY. Tractor sales increased by 88%MoM to 3,292 units, largely due to pre-buying in our view. Company wise breakdown for the sales volumes are given below:

PSMC: Oct'13 sales clocked in at 5,556 units, up by 9%YoY but down by 12%MoM as the sequential growth in Cultus sales (+14%MoM to 1,258 units) failed to counter lower sales for the Swift (-26%MoM to 361 units) and Mehran (-25%MoM to 1,972 units) variants. As a result, PSMC's cumulative 4MFY14 volumes were recorded at 23,522 units, up by just 3%YoY. We intend to revise our investment case for PSMC post release of detailed 9MCY13 accounts.

INDU: Oct'13 sales of the company came in at 2,595 units, broadly at par with the previous month. Similarly, 4MFY14 sales were recorded at 11,014 units, also flat on a YoY basis. On an individual product basis, Corolla sales were recorded at 2,266 units up by 7%MoM while Hilux sales dropped by 35%MoM to 299 units. Fortuner sales clocked in at just 30 units in Oct'13, some distance away from its sales run rate of 200+ units per month upon launch. INDU is our top pick in the Pakistan auto space where our TP of PkR400/share offers 19.6% upside.

HCAR: The company recorded disappointing sales volumes of 1,720 units in Oct'13, higher by 8%YoY but lower by 22%MoM. In this regard, while City sales remained above the 1,000 unit mark in the month under review, Civic sales dropped by 30%MoM to just 716 units.

Sequentially higher tractor sales: Tractor sales increased by 88%MoM to 3,292 units, largely due to pre-buying in our view with GST set to increase to 17% from Jan'14, up from 10% at present. Sales of AGTL in Oct'13 came in at 1,810 units, 3x higher sequentially but still lower by 23%YoY. Similarly, sales for MTL rebounded by 31%MoM to 1,482 units but this was still lower by 56%YoY.

Outlook: Going forward, while the awaited launch of new models/AIDP can be key catalysts, imported competition continues to pose threats particularly as the IHC has suspended the earlier judgment which declared the auto amnesty scheme illegal. This may serve to subdue sales for domestic OEMs across the next few months. Within this backdrop, we prefer INDU (TP: PkR400/share) underpinned by its relatively resilient products.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 13, 2013, 05:59:21 AM
Auto industry stakeholders to finalise AIDP-II today

KARACHI: The apex economic decision-making body formed by the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) has recalled the auto industry stakeholders to finalise the Auto Industry Development Policy II (AIDP-II) while the chairman Minister for Water and Power will not attend the meeting.
Earlier the meeting, which was scheduled to hold on October 27, 2013 had been postponed for anonymous reasons at the last minutes, however, the government apex body, now under the chairmanship of Chairman Board of Investment (BOl) Mohammad Zubair, deputy convener of the apex body was ready yet again to meet the stakeholders on November 13 (today).
To elicit proposals and solicit concurrence of the stakeholders, a meeting of aforementioned committee has been scheduled with All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA), Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) and Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM).
In contrast to previously scheduled meeting the government has invited few new stakeholders on the suggestion of auto assemblers for consideration like Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers (APMA), Pakistan Automobile Spare Parts Importers and Dealers Association (PASPIDA), and All Pakistan Automobile Dealers Association (APADA). The meeting timetable has been divided in three slots to meet different auto bodies separately by the government apex body for devising AIDP as PAMA and APMA will gather at 2.00 pm while PAPAAM solely discuss the proposals at 3.00 pm and the dealers associations PASPIDA, APADA and APMDA will share their suggestions and reservations at 4.00 pm.
Insider said PAAPAM was annoyed over calling of dealers associations especially APMDA, thus the organisers have split the meeting to avoid any insipidness as it was happened in the last scheduled meeting between dealers and auto assemblers.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 13, 2013, 06:01:54 AM
All quiet on the autos front

The sales figures released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) for October display business-as-usual for auto assemblers. Unfortunately, over the years business-as-usual in the auto industry has come to mean under performance.

For the 4M FY14, sale of passenger cars grew by nearly nine percent, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Growth is never bad, except that this growth came on the back of low-base effect from last year.

The influx of used cars during CY12 had severely battered new car sales for local assemblers, as sales for 4M FY13 dropped by 32 percent on year-on-year basis. The 2,000 or so additional cars sold in the four-month period are a welcome respite, but still far off from 52,000 cars sold in the peak four-month period of FY12.

A year-on-year analysis shows a remarkable performance by Honda, with Civic and City sales growing by 52 and 22 percent, respectively. But all is not well for Honda; the company launched its new Civic in September last year, with sales peaking in 2H FY13. Total Civic and City sales topped out in May when the company sold a total of 2,392 units after the launch of City Aspire in April. Honda sales have since gradually declined, with a new low reached in October with 1,720 units indicating a lull in buyers craze for new models.

Sales for other assemblers also remain modest, with Corolla sales growing by approximately 200 units for the four-month period, recording just two percent growth. The numbers are expected to remain stagnant primarily due to buyer anticipation of the new Corolla model and the setting in of the calendar year end--the weakest period for car sales historically, due to buyer preference for cars with New Year registration.

Within the 1,300 segment, Swift brought no happy tale for PakSuzuki, as sales declined not only on a month-on-month basis, but also compared to the previous year. A welcome sign, however, was a re-entry of Liana sedan in production with 72 units produced and 61 units sold during the month, highest ever since July CY11.

Cultus remained Suzukis tried and trusted model in the economy segment, with nearly hundred additional units sold compared to the 4M FY12. Mehran sales, however, were unimpressive and stagnant at 9,000 units; registering a dip of three percent.

BR Research has time and again lamented the flat lined sales in the auto sector, and this months numbers do not reveal any significant change in those trends. A new Auto Industry Development Policy is in the offing, dubbed AIDP-II, hinting (as if) the auto industry is in its second phase of development. But the truth is the industry is yet to recover its pre-FY08 levels, let alone achieve the scale required to become competitive.

However, it should also be noted that while some players have outperformed the rest at different points, these respite have only lasted for very brief periods. On most occasions, they have indicated buyer craze for a new model, than a result of a significant design-innovation. Such demand mainly stems from the luxury car buying segment, and dies down as the craze subsides.

The lack of sustained demand over time for these cars shows that the demand fails to trickles down (if prices were to drop as models grow older). On the other hand, lack of innovation (or choices!) in the economy and small car segment also show the disinterest of manufacturers in serving the lower segment.

While the auto industry has demanded protection against imported used cars in the new auto policy, the industry needs to achieve scale in order to become sustainable. A paradigm shift in the industrys orientation is thus required if it expects accommodation from the government.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 23, 2013, 01:04:35 AM
Anomalies in sales tax laws impede Hybrid cars imports: Anomalies in the sales tax

laws are holding back local car manufacturers from introducing Hybrid Electric Vehicle 

(HEV) in Pakistan as the tax relief recently announced by the government is only ap?

plicable at the import stage for Hybrid vehicles and not on subsequent sales, accord?

ing to stakeholders here.(BR)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on November 23, 2013, 11:52:40 PM
http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=23_11_2013_009_005
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 27, 2013, 01:14:25 PM
1QFY14: Auto sector review, outlook & recommendation
Written as on November 27, 2013
 
In today's Value Seeker we are presenting an analysis of auto sector profitability for the period Jul-Sep 2013. In our analysis we have included three major automobile manufacturers Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. (PSMC), Indus Motor Company Ltd. (INDU) and Honda Atlas Cars ( Pakistan ) Ltd. (HCAR).
Auto Sector profitability grew by 91%YoY in 1QFY14
From the slump witnessed during the last year, the auto sector made a remarkable recovery during 1QFY14 by posting a gain of 91%YoY in net profit to Rs1,238mn. Amongst individual companies, HCAR dipped into the red to post a loss after tax (LAT) of Rs13mn (due to a huge exchange loss incurred during the period). INDU on the other hand registered a growth of 27% YoY to Rs880mn whereas PSMC's profit reached Rs371mn as compared to a loss of Rs193mn during same period last year. The main factors behind this phenomenal growth are i) 7%YoY growth in unit sales to 32.7k units ii) increase in weighted average prices during the said period and, iii) 7%YoY higher other income  to Rs441mn.
With the strong jump in sales volume and product prices the gross margins of the auto sector grew by 350bps to 8.4% in Jul-Sep-13 as compared to 4.9% in the same period last year. Net margins also followed the same positive trend posting growth of 132bps YoY to 3.4% in 1QFY14 as compared to corresponding period last year.
Outlook and recommendation
Despite higher input costs due to electricity tarrif hike and the negative factors emerging ahead (rising interest rates and depreciation in PKR against USD); we continue to foresee an 8%YoY growth in unit sales of the auto sector. As the positive measures taken by ECC with regards to the import policy for the sector are like icing on the cake for the industry. The ECC has reduced the age limit of used imported cars to 3 years from 5 years. Moreover, depreciation in JPY against PKR is also expected to be positive for the companies' margins.
Currently INDU is trading at FY14 PE multiple of 7.6x, offering a dividend yield of 7.9% while PSMC and HCAR are trading at PE multiple of 7.5x and 6.6x at FY14 earning estimates. We recommend 'Buy' on HCAR with Jun-14 TP of Rs50/share while 'Hold' on PSMC and INDU with Jun-14 TP of Rs157/share and Rs342/share respectively providing limited upside potential from current levels.

InvestCap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 06, 2013, 05:44:26 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/3930:hybrid-vehicles-more-to-it-than-meets-the-eye/?date=2013-12-06
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 06, 2013, 05:51:07 PM
‘Five-year auto policy to provide level-playing field for all’

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Thursday said a five-year auto industry policy was in the offing that would provide a level-playing field for all the auto manufacturers in the country. Talking to Toyota Motors Asia-Pacific President Kyoichi Tanada here at the PM’s House, he said the government was providing incentives to the investors and hoped the car manufacturing industry will also benefit from it. The prime minister appreciated the investment of Toyota Motors in Pakistan and hoped that the company will enhance its capacity utilisation with the objective to decrease its cost of production. Tanada expressed his confidence that the manufacturers will benefit from the policies of the present government. app
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 09, 2013, 04:21:58 PM
Upcoming Auto Policy: Favoring new comers!
Written as on December 09, 2013
 
The new five year Auto Policy is expected to be announced by Dec'13 end. Introduction of incentives for new entrants and in-house preparation of plans by existing manufacturers will be key considerations of the new policy. In today's Value Seeker, we elaborate on the possible impact of the said decision on local car assemblers' sales coupled with our recommendation on the scrips.
Incentivizing new entrants - destructive for existing players!
Local auto assemblers are eagerly waiting for the new auto policy which is expected to be announced in Dec-13. The incentive for new entrants in the form of tariff protection is anticipated to be a major concern for the existing assemblers. The decision is expected to not only increase the price competition in the local market but also encourage the local assemblers to increase localization in order to keep production cost low while reducing currency risk. Such a decision is expected to negatively impact the pricing power of local auto assemblers. Moreover, other income on advance booking of cars is also expected to be victimized by any directive announced to reduce delivery time of cars.
Age limit revision:  Yet another challenge!
Any decision regarding increase of age limit of used cars being imported is foreseen to bode negatively for the offtake of the local auto assemblers, a phenomena that witnessed improvement off-late due to reduction in age limit from 5-year to 3-year in Dec-12. During FY13, commercial importers brought 49.4k units of used LTV (cars, LCV and jeeps) in the country, while local assemblers sold 135k units during the same period. The imported used LTVs held 27% market share in the total auto sales of the country during FY13. Moreover, in 4MFY14 commercial importers imported just 7.4k units while local assemblers sold 42.7k units in the same period.
Recommendation - 'Hold' on HCAR, PSMC and INDU
The auto sector scrips are currently trading closer to our target prices; INDU is trading at FY14 PE multiple of 7.7x while PSMC and HCAR are trading at 7.8x and 6.8x respectively. We recommend 'Hold ' on INDU, HCAR and PSMC with Jun-14 target prices of Rs342/sh, Rs50/sh and Rs157/sh respectively.

investcap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 10, 2013, 05:43:37 PM
Auto Industry Development Program-II (http://investorguide360.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/BMA-Research4.pdf)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: asim.786 on December 11, 2013, 02:23:47 AM
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\12\11\story_11-12-2013_pg5_8


Lao Indus Suzuki Honda shares
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 11, 2013, 04:48:02 PM
Auto Assemblers: Car sales improve by 6.7% in 5MFY14


Pakistan locally manufactured car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during 5MFY14 have increased by 6.7% to 52,384 units compared to 49,092 units in same period last year. During Nov 2013, local car sales stood at 9,588 units, 3.7% down as compared to 9,955 units last month while are 4.7% up as compared to 9,154 in the same month last year.


 Amongst individual companies,
Pak Suzuki (PSMC) has sold 29,511 units during 5MFY13, up 4.1% as compared to 28,337 units last year. However, on monthly basis, PSMC sales increased to 5,989 units, up 7.8% as compared to 5,556 units last month.

 Indus Motors (INDU) 5MFY13 sales have remained stable at 13,197 units as compared to 13,128 units in 5MFY12. On monthly basis, INDU sales declined to 2,183 units, 15.9% down as compared to 2,595 units in Oct’13 while 2.7% up as compared to 2,125 units in Nov’12.


 Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) sales have jumped to 9,334 units during 5MFY13, 25.6% up as compared to 7,429 units in 5MFY12. Increase in sales is primarily attributed to 27.1% YoY rise in ‘Civic’ sales. However, volumes dropped to 1,310 units in Nov’13, down 23.8% on monthly basis due to year end phenomenon.


 The growth of 6.7% in 5MFY14 is in-line with our assumption of 5% to 8% growth in FY14. We maintain ‘Hold’ stance on both INDU and PSMC at current levels.



Topline Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 12, 2013, 11:53:50 AM
Auto Sector: Nov'13 Industry Volume Update

Auto industry sales in Oct'13 have clocked in at 9,588 units, higher by 5%YoY but lower by 4%MoM. Considering auto financing continues to rise (+22%YoY/2%MoM to PkR54.8bn), we attribute sequentially lower sales by local assemblers to competition faced from imported variants and New Year registrations. Relatively weak Nov'13 sales bring 5MFY14 industry volume offtake to 52,384 units, up by 7%YoY with major impetus provided by HCAR (5MFY14 sales up by 26%YoY). On the tractors front, while combined 5MFY14 sales are lower by 37%YoY, sales increased by 31%MoM to 4,319 units, sequential tractor sales largely driven by pre-buying in our view with GST scheduled to rise to 17% from Jan'14. Going forward, we flag awaited release of new models/AIDP-II as key catalysts. At current levels, our preferred play in the Auto space is INDU (TP: PkR385/share).

Poorest month FYTD:
Nov'13 auto sales have clocked in at 9,588 units, up by 5%YoY but lower by 4%MoM to clock in at their lowest monthly level FYTD. The sequential dip is largely inline with precedence where sales tend to slow ahead of New Year registrations. This brings 5MFY14 industry sales to 52,384 units, up by 7%YoY. Tractor sales increased by 31%MoM to 4,319 units, largely due to pre-buying in our view. Company-wise breakdown for sales is as follows:

PSMC:
Nov'13 sales clocked in at 5,989 units, up by 7%YoY/8%MoM with sequential growth driven by Mehran sales (+30%MoM to 2,568 units) even as declines were recorded by Swift (-9%MoM to 328 units) and Bolan (-7%MoM to 1,003 units) variants. As a result, PSMC's cumulative 5MFY14 volumes came in at 29,511 units, up by 4%YoY.

INDU:
Nov'13 sales came in at 2,183 units, down by 16%MoM but marginally up by 3%YoY. 5MFY14 sales thereby came in at 13,197 units, up by just 1%YoY. On an individual product basis, Corolla sales were recorded at 1,966 units, down by 13%MoM while Hilux sales dropped by a sharp 36%MoM to 192 units and Fortuner sales clocked in at just 25 units in Nov'13. Despite the year-end dip in sales, INDU remains our top pick in the Pakistan auto space where our TP of PkR385/share offers 13.16% upside.

HCAR:
The Company recorded disappointing sales volumes of 1,310 units in Nov'13, lower by 24%MoM/8%YoY. In this regard, City sales dropped by 18%MoM to just 820 units and Civic sales dropped by 32%MoM to just 490 units. However, 5MFY14 sale of 9,334 units are up by 26%YoY.

Sequentially higher tractor sales:
Tractor sales increased by 31%MoM to 4,319 units, largely due to pre-buying in our view with GST set to increase to 17% from Jan'14, up from 10% at present. In this regard, the Pakistan Industrial and Traders Associations Front (PIAF) and the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) have called for the withdrawal of this GST uptick but a final decision is still awaited. Sales of AGTL in Nov'13 came in at 1,814 units, at par with the previous month and lower by 23%YoY. Sales for MTL rebounded by a sharp 61%MoM to 2,505 units but this was still lower by 29%YoY.

Outlook:
Going forward, while the awaited release of new models/AIDP can be key catalysts, imported competition continues to pose threats. Within the backdrop of murky regulatory developments (uncertainty as to what AIDP will deliver), we prefer INDU (TP: PkR385/share) where our liking is underpinned by its relatively resilient product suite.

AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 12, 2013, 02:29:59 PM

 
The Bell
 
Autos: Nov-13 Sales up 7% YoY

LCV’s and 1000cc segment lend support to volumes
Cumulative volumetric sales for Autos during 5MFY14 clocked in at 52,384 units, up 7% YoY, while sales of Nov-13 were 9,588 units, up 5% YoY. The YoY increase in Nov-13 sales is attributable to 22/12% increase in 1000cc/LCV segments.
PSMC exhibits exuberance as seasonality takes toll on HCAR and INDU
Sales for PSMC witnessed 7% YoY growth in November driven by Cultus (+22% YoY) and Ravi (+28% YoY), belying seasonal downturn. INDU and HCAR sales dropped by 16% MoM and 24% MoM respectively primarily due to seasonal effect.
High motorization levels to keep rapid expansion in check
Current motorization level of Pakistan at 19cars/1000people (increased from 11 in FY08) is close to regional peer India, which weakens a strong volumetric growth scenario in the medium term.
AIDP 2 – a key signpost to watch out for
AIDP 2 (new policy framework) is expected to be announced soon with alterations expected in CKD duty and age limit of imported used cars.
Investment case
At last closing INDU offers an upside of 2% along with a dividend yield of 7.3% offering total share holder return of 9.3%. HOLD. PSMC at current levels offers a down side of 2% with a dividend yield of 3% offering total shareholder return of a meager 1%. Though, we expect interest in PSMC to stay intact prior to full year results of CY13 where we expect the company to pay out PKR4.5/sh. HOLD.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 12, 2013, 06:59:01 PM
Auto sector: Depressing sales to continue in Dec-13
 

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA) recently disclosed auto sales and production numbers for Nov-13. In today's Value Seeker, we present an analysis of the auto sales performance in 5MFY14 along with our recommendation on the scrips under InvestCap's Universe umbrella.

Auto Sales up by 6.7%YoY in 5MFY14

During 5MFY14, total auto (Car, LCV, Pickup & Jeeps) sales stepped up by a modest 6.7% YoY to 52,384 units whereas car sales alone climbed up by 5.7%YoY to 45,666 units during the said period. Similarly, cumulative sales of LCV and Jeeps also followed the same rising trend, registering a growth of 14.1%YoY to 6,718 units. The rise in local cars sales was mainly led by low import of used cars despite the price hike in the local market following an appreciation in USD and JPY against PKR during the said period.

On a MoM basis, auto sales declined by 3.7% in Nov-13 to 9,588 units. LCV and Jeeps sales were the worst affected posting a decline of 9%MoM. Car sales on the other hand slid down by 2.9%MoM to 8,437 units during the said period. The decline in car sales in Nov-13 was headed by the New Year registration phenomena which is further expected to continue in the month of Dec-13.

Recommendation - 'Hold' INDU, PSMC and HCAR

INDU is trading at FY14 PE multiple of 7.7x while PSMC and HCAR are trading at multiple of 8.2x and 6.8x respectively. We recommend 'Hold ' on INDU, HCAR and PSMC with Jun-14 TPs of Rs342/sh, Rs50/sh and Rs157/sh respectively.

InvestCap
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 13, 2013, 07:55:27 PM
Flip-flopping two- and three-wheeler sales


According to figures published by Pakistan Automotive Manufac-turers Association (PAMA), two- and three-wheeler sales in November posted a mixed bag of performance, with total sales clocking in at 62,347 units, recording a 1.5 percent decline compared to the corresponding month from last year.

Two-wheeler motorcycles constituted a major chunk of these sales, with three-wheeler forming a meager 4.5 percent of total production and sales. This breakup is in lines with historical market share for the two categories, with three-wheeler’s demand inching forward in the past few years, albeit at a snail’s pace.

Within the two-wheeler category, Pak Suzuki took the growth trophy home as the company stepped up its effort to boost its motorcycle business. In the past the company has faced difficulty in sinking its teeth in the motorcycle market dominated by the 70cc engine capacity. To recall, Pak Suzuki only manufactures bikes with 110cc and 150cc engine, which enjoy a niche market. The company sold 700 more units in November, up 52 percent from 1,330 units last year.

The category leader Atlas Honda came out to be the biggest loser in absolute terms, as fewer Honda branded bikes were seen on the road. However, motorcycle sales are notorious for flip-flopping on a monthly basis, and hence, it may be too soon to ring the alarm bells. Atlas Honda monthly bike sales usually fluctuate in the band of fifty to sixty thousand units, on average constituting more than 80 percent share of the two-wheeler market.

Historically, monthly motorcycle sales have hovered between sixty to seventy thousand units, with an eight-month stellar performance recorded during CY11 when demand broke the 80,000 units barrier briefly: thanks to record growth in agricultural income during the previous years. Ever since, demand has flat-lined with flashes of improvement following dismal troughs in irregular cycles.

Smaller players fought hard for the remaining portion of the pie, with Sohrab and Qingqi taking turns in eating the share of Hero and Ravi two-wheeler from last year. Sales figures for DYL motorcycles were unavailable for November; however, as per the four-month period ending October-CY13, the company saw sales decline by 66 percent, compared to the same period of last year. The company sold 14,500 fewer units from more than twenty-two thousand in CY12.

In the three-wheeler category, Feb 13 saw Sohrab Motors shifting gears, drawing from three-wheeler production to increase focus on the two-wheeler bike market. The vacuum left by Sohrab’s withdrawal saw demand to spike for Qingqi and Sazgar Engineering, with Sazgar recording 28.46 percent growth in sales during November compared to last year.

Over all, the three-wheeler demand diminished by 5.59 percent, with production exceeding demand more than two hundred units for the five-month period ending November. Only time will tell whether the three-wheeler sales will post a flip-flop similar to be seen in its cousin two-wheeler market or not.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 26, 2013, 09:06:47 PM
Tractor industry:

the curse of faulty comparisons (http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/3986:tractor-industry-the-curse-of-faulty-comparisons/?date=2013-12-26)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 31, 2013, 12:14:17 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/3998:passenger-cars-the-case-for-new-entrants/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 02, 2014, 12:12:24 AM
Rupee gains against yen helps auto industry

Car prices: (http://tribune.com.pk/story/653112/car-prices-rupee-gains-against-yen-helps-auto-industry/)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 02, 2014, 12:18:34 AM
Car sales likely to increase by 5.8% in 1HFY14


Pakistan local car assemblers sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during 1HFY14 are likely to reach around 60.9K units, up 5.8% compared to 57,540 units in corresponding period. However, we are still awaiting official figures as these number are from our company contacts.

On monthly basis, locally manufactured car sales may decline by 11.3% to 8.5K units in Dec 2013 compared to 9,588 units in Nov 2013. We attribute the decline to year end phenomenon as buyer prefers to buy new year model car. On year on year basis, sales are slightly down by 0.7% compared to 8,448 units in Dec 2012.

Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales may improve by 3.3% to approx. 35.5K units in 1HFY14 vs. 34,324 units in the same period last year. Alone in Dec 2013, we expect stable sales of 5.8K-6.0K units as against 5,989 units in Nov 2013.

Indus Motor (INDU) sales are likely to improve by 1% to around 14.9K units in 1HFY14 compared to 14,699 units in 1HFY13. On monthly basis, INDU sales are expected to remain to the tune of 1.7K units in Dec 2013 which is down 22%QoQ but up 8.2%YoY.

Honda Cars (HCAR) sales are expected to surge by 22%YoY to 10k units in 1HFY14. During Dec 2013, sales of HCAR may decline to 700-800 units compared to 1,310 units in Nov 2013 and 864 units in Dec 2012.

We expect further improvement in car sales in the second half of current fiscal year.

TOPLINE
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 07, 2014, 03:59:42 PM
Free ride for assemblers: Enjoying while it lasts

December 2012 marked the reversal of five-year age limit on used cars import, and with it the reversal of fortunes for car assemblers and dealers. While dealers reeled under the ban, car makers saw their bottom lines fatten as margin improved on the back of renewed demand for locally assembled cars.

The latest regulatory flip-flop on car import caused used car imports to slump from a peak of 50,000 units in FY12 to just under 15,000 units in the first half of CY13. As variety of choices available to buyers dropped further, car assemblers capitalised on the opportunity, increasing car prices in tandem not once or twice, but thrice in a matter of 12 months.

The market leader Pak Suzuki "led" the industry in price hikes as well, raising prices within a month of reversal of age limit--reasserting its monopoly in the economy segment. To recall, Pak Suzukis sales volumes had received the worst battering from liberal car import policy, declining by 31 percent during FY13 on a YoY basis. The company returned with a vengeance during CY13, raising price by seven percent on average, of different variants in the 800cc to 1,300cc segments.

Honda Atlas wasn    one to be left behind in the race to improve margins at a time of improving demand. Paying heed to Suzukis cues, HCAR raised prices on its new Civic by nine percent on average--extracting maximum gains from rejuvenated demand for Honda sedans in response to new models launched this year. Honda also expanded its share in the 1,300cc segment, selling two Hondas on average for every three Corollas sold; a sizable improvement from less than 20 percent category share it enjoyed back in the day.

But, the reduction in car import age limit does not seem to have bided well equally for all assemblers. Indus Motors, which did not (or as some say, failed to) roll out its much anticipated new Corolla model during the year, had little room to raise prices, as customers in the high-end market began to look elsewhere for variety. However, INDU did jump on the price-hike bandwagon while it could, albeit only raising Corolla prices by three percent on average during CY13. The price increases did arrest a much needed fall in profitability, although at the cost of diminished volumes.

Recall that the five-year long Auto Industry Development Programme ended last year and no regulatory regime is in place to oversee pricing in the car industry. Ever since, assemblers have enjoyed a free ride, increasing prices at will while reaping benefits of monopoly in distinct demand segments (by income and socio-economic group), avoiding competition with each other.

However, it would be wrong to place all the blame on manufacturers. Regulator has proved to be more Capricious than Aphrodite in this case, bringing in place a protectionist sector development programme at one point and then virtually removing all restrictions on import at the other.

Of course, there have been intended and unintended beneficiaries of governments whimsical behaviour, and assemblers as well as importers have amassed as much gains as they could from these arbitrary practices. While there may have been some winners, the consumer and policy-making turned out to be the big losers as in any other "only in Pakistan" story.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 11, 2014, 12:28:52 PM
Higher speed: Car sales move up a gear during first six months of fiscal year (http://tribune.com.pk/story/657480/higher-speed-car-sales-move-up-a-gear-during-first-six-months-of-fiscal-year/)



(http://i888.photobucket.com/albums/ac89/etwebdesk/etwebdesk131/Table_zps1a473f85.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 13, 2014, 05:51:10 PM
 
AKD Daily

Auto Sector: Dec’13 Industry Volume Update


Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released auto numbers for the month of Dec'13. According to the data, overall industry volumes grew by 6.5%YoY in 1HFY14 to stand at 61,252 units where on MoM basis a decline of 7.5% was recorded with volumes of 8,868 units in Dec'13. The decline in December follows a recurring pattern wherein buyers tend to wait out the year end, opting instead for New Year registrations, with January sales having historically risen by an average of 60%MoM over the past 5 years. On the tractors front, sales volumes increased by 34%MoM in Dec'13 to stand at 5,770 units. At the same time, tractor sales in 1HFY14 declined by 33%YoY to stand at 18,376 units.
 

PSMC: Dec'13 sales remained flat at 5,981 units while 1HFY14 sales increased by 3.4%YoY to 35,492 units. Sales of Bolan and Cultus increased by 30%MoM and 9.7%MoM, respectively while sales of Mehran dropped by 23%MoM. At current levels, we have a Neutral stance on PSMC with a target price of PkR173/share.
 

INDU: Dec'13 sales came in at 1,982 units, down by 9.2%MoM but up by 26%YoY. Cumulative 1HFY14 sales came in at 15,179 units, up by just 3.3%YoY. On an individual product basis, Corolla sales were recorded at 1,534 units, down by 22%MoM while Hilux sales recorded a sharp increase of 2.0x MoM to 396 units. Fortuner sales remained tepid at just 52 units in Dec'13. At current levels, we have a Neutral stance on INDU with a target price of PkR384/share.
 

HCAR: The Company recorded disappointing sales volumes of just 655 units in Dec'13, down 50%MoM/24%YoY. In this regard, City sales dropped by 52%MoM to just 390 units and Civic sales dropped by 46%MoM to just 265 units. However, 1HFY14 volumes of 9,989 units are up by 20%YoY.
 

Tractors: Dec'13 closed with a 33.6%MoM increase in tractor sales at 5,770 units (4,205 units of MTL up 68%MoM and 1,565 units of AGTL down by 14%MoM) as buyers looked to complete purchases prior to the GST rise from Jan 1'14. To recall, GST on tractors has risen to 17% from previous 10% from the beginning of CY14.

 

Review & Outlook: The market continues to wait for the AIDP which will likely dictate future directions for the industry. A potential tariff protection plan for new entrants within the AIDP could result in increased competition within the auto manufacturing industry, potentially putting existing players under pressure. At the same time, local OEMs are expected to introduce new models in the current year with potential small segment models as well as newer versions of Corolla and City (already launched internationally). At current levels, we have a 'Neutral' stance on both INDU and PSMC with respective TPs of PKR384/share and PkR173/ share as we wait for the announcement of AIDP. That said, share prices for auto manufacturers may rally in the short term on the back of potentially strong sales numbers in Jan'14 where we portend a growth of 60%MoM in overall industry sales.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 13, 2014, 05:52:58 PM
The Bell
 
Autos: Dec-13 Sales up 5% YoY

 
Volumes increase 5% in Dec-13
Cumulative Volumetric sales for 1HFY14 clocked in at 52,384 units, up 6.7% YoY. LCV’s and 1000cc segment maintained its buoyant momentum into Dec-13 rising 30/64% YoY. Overall sales increased 5% YoY primarily owing to 26% increase in INDU sales. Auto sales continue its upward trajectory since Jun-13.   
INDU posts resurgence as HCAR stumbles
INDU posted sizable gains YoY (+26%) with corolla and Hilux sales up 11/110% YoY in Dec-13. Fortunner too displayed resurgence with 56 units sold against average sales of 35 units in 5MFY14. Sales for PSMC remained flat in Dec-13 while HCAR’s sales plummeted 24% YoY primarily due to lagging civic sales (-55% YoY)
Imports witness significant decline
Import of used car registered massive decline in 1HFY14 with total imports scaling back to 12,060 units (-62% YoY). This colossal retrenchment in import of used cars aided a slight recovery in 1HFY14 (+6.7% YoY). 
No respite for Tractor volumes in 1HFY14
Cumulative sales for tractors clocked in at 52,384 units in 1HFY14 down 33% YoY. Sales for tractors in Dec-13 though up 33% MoM due to pre-buying prior to GST hike still remains weak falling 24% YoY. 
Investment case
We have rolled forward our PT to Dec-14 and slightly tweaked our estimates for JPY and volumes for both INDU and PSMC yielding Dec-14 PT of PKR371 (+3%) and PKR167 (+13.6%), respectively. We maintain HOLD on both stocks at current levels.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on January 14, 2014, 07:10:41 PM
(http://www.naibaat.com.pk/nbfinal/ePaper/lahore/14-01-2014/Detail/p14_15.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 15, 2014, 11:24:48 PM
(http://urdu.aaj.tv/image/stories/144859_story.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 17, 2014, 02:22:43 PM
Need for volumes in auto industry - A conversation with CEO Indus Motors, Parvez Ghias and Vice Chairman House of Habib, Sohail P. Ahmed - Part I (http://www.brecorder.com/company-news/235:pakistan/1144073:need-for-volumes-in-auto-industry-a-conversation-with-ceo-indus-motors-parvez-ghias-and-vice-chairman-house-of-habib-sohail-p-ahmed-part-i/?date=2014-01-17)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 21, 2014, 10:20:32 PM
Stagnating two-wheeler volume raises fears for 3 wheelers
 (http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/4050:stagnating-two-wheeler-volume-raises-fears-for-3-wheelers/?date=2014-01-21)
The year 2013 in Chinese and Japanese zodiac calendars was the year of snake, a symbol of happiness to many in the two cultures. Sadly, the emblem of happiness brought no respite to the assemblers of Chinese and Japanese technology two wheelers in Pakistan, who saw volumes, shrink despite friendly macros.

According to latest statistics released by Pakistan Auto Manufacturers Association (PAMA), CY13 sales of motorcycles by eight major assemblers clocked in at 758,422 units, down by 3.3 percent since last calendar year. The decline in DYL and Hero sales became the major culprit of the fall in volumes, as the two players sold 54,326 units fewer units combined than last year.

However, the causes of decline of demand for DYL and Hero brand bikes were not entirely similar. DYL’s sales suffered as the assembler of Yamaha label motorbikes of the yore underwent a brand transformation after the culmination of Dawood Group of Companies’ joint-venture with the Japanese giant.

To recall, Dawood Yamaha was the biggest contender of market leader Atlas Honda in the Japanese technology two-wheeler category back in the day, and the re-branding of the business seems to have affected its positioning. The company also began wounding down production during the 2H CY13, producing a little more than one-third number of bikes than it did during the first half.

The curse of Hero, however, was much similar to that of other smaller Chinese technology assemblers. According to Sabir Shaikh, Chairman Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers (APMA), in the absence of an industry wide policy, the customs duty rates as per the current Tariff based system are heavily tilted in the favour of Japanese technology-based assemblers, driving out competition from small players.

Shaikh says that out of more than hundred EDB licensed assemblers of all sizes, nearly thirty are currently out of business, owing to high duty rates that make business uncompetitive. “The duties rates were set back in 2006 at the time of the announcement of first AIDP, ever since which US dollar has depreciated by nearly hundred percent.”

However, if statistics published by APMA are any guide, then it is not just smaller assemblers that are losing out on market share. According to APMA fact sheet, total annual motorcycle production in the country has been a little more than 1.6 million units for past three financial years, and the share of Japanese assemblers has been stagnant at an average of 43 percent or 700,000 units.

And while tariff structure may influence the pricing of Japanese-technology motorcycles, it is definitely not the determining factor for their demand. Case in point is the loss of share by Yamaha/DYL motorcycles during CY13, a large portion of which was conveniently picked up Atlas Honda, whose sales grew by 3.3 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Industry sources suggest that there is a captive demand for two-wheelers brands that carry Japanese technology, thus neatly segmenting the market from cheaper Chinese options. However, it also raises an important question. If demand for Japanese models stems from a limited segment of the market, the Japanese brands may be in for a stiff price-war in the coming year, given the re-entry of Yamaha Corporation in the Pakistani market with a $150 million investment.

If things are set to get more exciting in the otherwise boring motorcycle industry scene, then it may be time for the rest of us to get some pop corns!
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 26, 2014, 12:41:28 AM
Auto industry frustrated at policy delay

Expressing concerns over the delay in the announcement of the new Auto Industry Plan (AIP) despite a host of meetings, the Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (Paapam) has said that the lingering policy has blocked all activity and hindered investment in the industry.
While Paapam Chairman Usman Malik appreciated involving all stakeholders, he said that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had failed to finalise the AIP despite meeting in October. The ECC had set up the committee last year and decided on a 45-day period for its finalisation.
Malik said that Paapam wanted a policy that would help strategise the exports of auto parts and vehicles in addition to growth of the industry domestically.
Pakistan’s auto industry is currently small but so is the market. The country’s population has quadrupled over the past five decades to 180 million, but car ownership stood at just 12.6 per 1,000 inhabitants in 2013, and is unlikely expand rapidly in the near future.

Domestic production, which consists of local assembly of vehicles from imported parts and kits, has a capacity to produce 250,000 vehicles per year. In fiscal 2013 that was more than enough to supply a market with domestic sales of just 180,000 vehicles, down nearly one quarter on a year-on-year basis.
The PAAPAM chief said that government has already been asked to give at least four to five years to the domestic industry before phasing out the negative trade list with India.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 26th, 2014.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on January 28, 2014, 11:32:03 PM

 
 :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:

http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/108-pakistan-top-news/155360-one-time-waiver-for-clearance-of-used-vehicles-approved-ecc.html

 :@ :@ :@
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on February 09, 2014, 03:45:56 PM
(http://www.express.com.pk/images/NP_LHE/20140209/Sub_Images/1102093397-2.gif)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on February 11, 2014, 06:09:28 PM
Car sales jumped 6.8% in 7MFY14

 Pakistan local car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during 7MFY14 has reached 75,162 units, up 6.8%, as compared to 70,351 unit in the same period last year.

 However on monthly basis, locally manufactured car sales have improved to 13,910 units in Jan 2014, up 57% versus 8,868 units in Dec 2013 and up by 8.6% YoY. We attribute increase in sales to ‘New Model’ phenomenon.

 Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales improved by 3.0% to 42,581 units during 7MFY14 as compared to 41,328 units last year. However, on monthly basis, PSMC sales picked up to 7,089 units in Jan 2014 which is up 18.5% MoM. Monthly increase in sales is on account of increased sales of Ravi, Swift and Mehran.

 During 7MFY14, Indus Motors (INDU) sales increased by 5.0% to 19,171 units as compared to 18,259 units in 7MFY13. Improvement in sales is primarily contributed by 4.8% increase in ‘Corolla’ sales to 16,486 units in 7MFY14. However, on monthly basis, INDU sales has jumped to 3,992 units in Jan 2014, up 101%, compared to 1,982 units in last month.

 Honda Cars (HCAR) sales surged by 19.7%YoY to 12,589 units in 7MFY14. During Jan 2014, sales of HCAR improved by 297% MoM to 2,600 units.

 We expect decent growth trend in car sales to continue in the remaining five months of current fiscal year.

topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on February 12, 2014, 03:24:32 AM
(http://i1.tribune.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/670496-carsphotofile-1392150453-234-640x480.JPG)
Analysts and industry officials both had predicted a sharp jump in car sales in January, as most people prefer to wait in December to book new car models in the first month of the year. PHOTO: FILE


Car sales rev up in new year
By Farhan ZaheerPublished: February 12, 2014
 
KARACHI:
Local car sales in January jumped by a significant 57% to reach 13,910 units compared to 8,868 units in previous month (December 2013), according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).
Meanwhile, auto sales including light commercial vehicles, vans and jeeps in the first seven months (July-January) of fiscal year 2013-14 (FY14) also increased to 75,162 units, up 6.8% compared to 70,351 units in the same period last year.
Analysts and industry officials both had predicted a sharp jump in car sales in January, as most people prefer to wait in December to book new car models in the first month of the year.
“The sharp jump in January car sales is not unexpected as the demand for November and December 2013 also shifted to January (people prefer New Year car models),” JS Global Capital analyst Atif Zafar said.
Commenting on the seven-month figure, he said the increase of 7% in overall car sales was perfectly fine and as per market expectations.
“I think car sales in February will decline by 5-10%,” Zafar said, adding there were two reasons for that. First, January sales jumped because of low sales in November and December 2013 and second January sales usually remain high compared to other months.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on February 12, 2014, 07:08:30 PM
The Bell
 
Autos: Sales keep course on recovery

 
LCV’s posted a 40% YoY growth in Jan-14
Volumetric auto sales for Jan-14 clocked in at 13,910 units, up 9% YoY, primarily on the back of 40% YoY increase in LCV volumes and 11% growth in the 1300cc segment. 1000cc also posted considerable growth of 15% while 800cc segment contracted by 12% YoY dragging down Passenger Car sales (+4% YoY). Overall auto sales continued its upward trajectory with 7MFY14 cumulative volumes rising 6.8% YoY.
HCAR, INDU posts sizable gains
HCAR’s volumes for Jan-14 registered an impressive 17% YoY growth with total sales clocking in at 2,600 units. INDU’s volumes too displayed a buoyant trend and expanded by 12% YoY with major boost stemming from 10% increase in its Corolla sales, whereas PSMC’s volumes remained flat at 7,089 units (+1% YoY).
GST hike wreaks havoc for tractor sales
Cumulative sales for tractors clocked in at 504 units in Jan-14 decreasing by a massive 69% YoY. 7% hike in GST which became applicable from 1st Jan of FY14 has wreaked havoc for the tractor industry resulting in a substantial dip in volumetric sales. 
Investment case
At last closing, INDU is fairly valued and offers a dividend yield of 6.8%. HOLD. PSMC at current level offers a meager upside of 3.3% with a dividend yield of 2.8%. We expect interest in PSMC to remain intact as investors will be awaiting full year CY13 results where we expect PSMC to pay out PKR4.5/share. HOLD. MTL at current levels offers a downside of 10% along with a dividend yield of 6.7%. SELL 

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on February 13, 2014, 10:50:19 PM
Car sales: a good turn for good?

CY13 is now long gone, and with it the spell of poor car sales. According to the figures released by the Pakistan Auto Manufacturers Association (PAMA), passenger car sales during January clocked in at 11,915 units, up by three percent year on year against a decline of twelve percent last year.

On surface, January 2014 saw nearly as many new car sales as were seen back January 2008, but much has changed since that fateful year. For one, only seven of the eleven passenger variants remain on the street, with market rumours suggesting that Suzuki’s sedan Liana is soon on its way out. Over these six years, Honda’s City and Civic more than doubled their share to 22 percent, whereas Corolla saw a few good Januaries and then some bad, and has now hit equilibrium with a 30 percent share of the pie.

But, it is the paucity of economy and lower segment that makes the heart bleed. The 800cc to 1,300cc segment not only sells three thousand fewer cars, it has also shed 20 percentage points of its market share, down to just 48 percent. While we would all love to believe that Pakistani people have gotten richer over this period and take less pride in driving small engine cars, the reality is that lower rate of savings in the middle-income segment is squeezing the jugular of lower end cars.

Even more fascinating is the story of the month-on-month turnaround in sales of different variants. While sales of Corolla, City and Civic doubled, tripled, and quadrupled, respectively in January, smaller cars remained indifferent to this trend. While most analysts would describe the jump in Honda and Toyota variants as the New Year phenomenon, it begs the question as to why buyers in the lower segment just don’t care about the date on their registration plate.

Still, at least the month-on-month change in January remains much in line with the historical trend. Disproving the predictions, the stellar take-off of Civic and City sales that month proved that the target market remains very much excited for the new models, with loyal Corolla customers demonstrating that they would stick with the brand, with or without the new model.

Importantly, even though the performances of Honda and Toyota remain the highlight of this month, that’s not the whole story. Suzuki’s Cultus was one such highlight, posting its highest ever demand since 2009. Over the years, volumes of Cultus have treaded lightly, but steadily, benefiting from phasing out of other models in its category, but not enough to make up for the lost volumes. That supports the argument that the buyers of economy cars have witnessed an erosion of purchasing power over the past six years.

Over all, the manufacturers sold more cars compared to last year and that is a good sign, as the automobile manufacturing sector remains one of the biggest contributors to GDP.

So, if more cars on the streets are an indication of some recovery in the economy, then it is definitely welcome. At the same time, we wait for the day when more small-sized new cars are seen on the roads than luxury sedans, a sign of a more inclusive economic growth.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on February 14, 2014, 08:18:18 PM
(http://urdu.aaj.tv/image/stories/147043_story.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on February 14, 2014, 08:19:41 PM
(http://urdu.aaj.tv/image/stories/147008_story.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on February 17, 2014, 09:27:52 AM
(http://www.express.com.pk/images/NP_LHE/20140217/Sub_Images/1102100566-1.gif)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 04, 2014, 07:41:16 AM
Govt is uncompetitive, not the industry

The resistance to the grant of most-favoured nation (MFN) or more digestible non-discriminatory market access (NDMA) status to India carries logic as the industry says it is not uncompetitive but it is the government which lacks a proper regulatory environment that could benefit local manufacturers.
Industrialists associated with the automobile sector fear that the industry will be paralysed in the absence of infrastructure and because of disparity between implementation of standards in different sectors of the two countries. This makes it impossible for the industry, which is not incompetent, to overcome the challenges of goods export to India, they say.

“The auto industry is ready for trade but a lot of homework on part of the government has yet to be done,” said Nabeel Hashmi, former chairman of Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (Paapam), told The Express Tribune.
“This is not a case where we cannot compete with our Indian counterparts, we are competing by manufacturing quality components for Suzuki and other car manufacturers,” he said.
According to Hashmi, India has agreed to accept emission and quality certificates issued by Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority (PSQCA) for vehicle export, but Delhi is following Bharat-IV emission standards, equivalent to Euro-IV, that entails that the vehicles should be designed especially for the Indian market.
Unfortunately, he said, Pakistan had not a single testing facility that could certify Euro emission standards while India had world-class facilities.
Hashmi pointed out that India had executed a well-planned and prudent policy, setting growth direction for the auto sector and addressing most of its concerns. A long-term consistent auto policy has been in place since 1995. The industrial policy in general and auto policy in particular are not tied to policies of sitting governments and continue without any major change decade after decade.
Indian automotive industry data for April-March 2011-12 shows production growth of 13.83% over previous year. In the year, the industry produced 20.36 million vehicles, of which two wheelers, passenger vehicles, three wheelers and commercial vehicles had a share of 76%, 15%, 4% and 4% respectively.
In contrast, he said, the Auto Industry Development Policy in Pakistan, formulated in 2007 to facilitate the industry, had been tinkered with so many times that it had lost its originality. It also led to 24% decline in sales of the industry during the period covered by the policy.
“All meetings of auto industry representatives with the Engineering Development Board and its parent – Ministry of Industries – on the new auto policy for 2012-17 have failed to reach consensus,” said Ishtiaq Siddiqi, Chief Executive Officer of AM Engineering.
The government continued to stick to its anti-industry proposal of a massive reduction in tariffs and was supporting trading over manufacturing despite the industries minister’s clear directives, he added.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 4th, 2014.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 07:43:02 AM
Auto industry: Pakistan Auto Show begins today

KARACHI:
Indus Motor Company (IMC), the distributor and progressive manufacturer of Toyota vehicles in Pakistan, will bring the Pakistan Auto Show 2014, which is to be held from March 6 at the Expo Centre, Lahore.
The Pakistan Auto Show 2014 is Pakistan’s premier auto show event, held once in two years, where almost the entire local auto industry comes together to showcase their products, technologies and capabilities. This year’s show is also expected to attract thousands of attendees who will get first-hand information on some of their favourite cars and two-wheelers. The event will also attract international buyers of vehicles and automotive components which may increase local industry access to export markets.
IMC CEO Parvez Ghias said that Pakistan has a huge potential to become an auto manufacturing and exporting hub in Asia and such an event serves as a platform where untapped potential can be recognised.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 6th, 2014.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 11, 2014, 04:51:08 PM
Autos: Flattish sales in Feb’14

 Total auto sales (cars + LCVs) in Feb’14 have registered at 12,789 units (+1%YoY/-8%MoM) with car sales clocking in at 11,238 units (-1%YoY/-6%MoM). As a result, 8MFY14 car sales are up by 3.5%YoY to 76,072 units. HCAR has been the main outperformer, post launch of the Civic model and on continued strong City performance, with 8MFY14 sales of 14,821 units (+18%YoY). On the tractors front, despite semblance of a sequential rebound in Feb’14, sales remain subdued from a historical basis with 8MFY14 sales of 20,485 units lower by 35%YoY (post increase in GST). The listed auto space has gained 10.2%CYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index’s returns of 7.6% over the same period. Going forward, further price performance is dependent on the provisions of the upcoming auto policy particularly from the vantage of the age limit of imported used cars. We maintain a preference for INDU over PSMC where the PkR’s renewed appreciation vs. the JPY (over the last month) may cause near-term excitement particularly if it morphs into a trend.

 Feb’14 sales review: Total auto sales (cars + LCVs) in Feb’14 have registered at 12,789 units (+1%YoY/-8%MoM) with car sales clocking in at 11,238 units (-1%YoY/-6%MoM). As a result, 8MFY14 car sales are up by 3.5%YoY to 76,072 units, led by HCAR. At the same time, LCV/Pickup sales in Feb’14 have risen by an impressive 25%YoY in 8MFY14 to 11,879 units on higher Suzuki Ravi sales and resumption of Hyundai Shehzore sales. On the tractors front, Feb’14 sales have registered at 1,605 units (-32%YoY/+218%MoM) bringing 8MFY14 sales to 20,485 units, down by 35%YoY.

PSMC: Has sold 6,941 units in Feb’14 (-1%YoY/-2%MoM) to bring 8MFY14 sales to 49,522 units (+2.5%YoY). Strong performing variants for the month under review include Cultus (+15%YoY to 1,346 units) and the Ravi (+11%YoY to 1,122 units). Coming from a high base however, Bolan sales have come off by 23%YoY to 1,156 units. At current levels, we have a Neutral stance on PSMC based on our target price of PkR173.5/share.

INDU: Feb’14 sales of 3,505 units are lower by 2%YoY/12%MoM with sales of the bellwether Corolla variant lower by 6%YoY to 3,141 units. In 8MFY14, sales are higher by 4%YoY to 22,676 units (+2.4%YoY ex-Fortuner which was launched in early CY13). At current levels, our target price of PkR384/share implies a Neutral stance.

 HCAR: Has sold 2,232 units in Feb’14, higher by 11%YoY but lower by 14%MoM post New Year registrations. Consequently, HCAR’s 8MFY14 sales have registered at 14,821 units (+18%YoY). The key reason behind robust performance is the launch of the new Civic model with 8MFY14 sales of 6,466 units higher by 15%YoY. At the same time, the City variant has continued its impressive performance with Feb’14 sales higher by 18%YoY and 8MFY14 sales up by 21%YoY.

Tractor: Feb’14 sales have registered at 1,605 units (-32%YoY/+218%MoM) bringing 8MFY14 sales to 20,485 units, lower by 35%YoY (post increase in GST). In this regard, MTL has posted sales of 1,060 units in Feb’14, higher by 5.6x MoM while AGTL’s Feb’14 sales of 545 units are up by 73%MoM. While the sequential increase in tractor sales is encouraging, sales remain way off the pace from a historical basis.

Investment perspective: The listed auto space has gained 10.2%CYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index’s returns of 7.6% over the same period. Going forward, further price performance is dependent on the provisions of the upcoming auto policy particularly from the vantage of the age limit of imported used cars. We maintain a preference for INDU over PSMC where the PkR’s renewed appreciation vs. the JPY (over the last month) may cause near-term excitement particularly if it morphs into a trend.

AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 11, 2014, 05:02:48 PM
Auto Sales: Steady volume growth observe during 8MFY14

Written as on March 11, 2014

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA) has released auto sales and production figures for Feb-14. In today's Value Seeker, we are presenting an analysis of auto sales performance during 8MFY14 coupled with our outlook and recommendation on the same.

Auto sales grew by 3.5%YoY in 8MFY14

The total sales volume of the auto sector (Cars, LCVs and Jeeps) posted a modest growth of 6%YoY in 8MFY14. Whereas, cars sales of the segment has reached to 76,072 units as compared to 73,502 units in the same period last year, registering a growth of 3.5%YoY during the said period. Likewise, LCV & Jeeps segment of auto sector exhibited a gigantic growth of 25%YoY to 11,879 units as compared to 9,474 units in the corresponding period last year. The revival of the economy coupled with the reduction in the influx of imported cars is expected to be the major reason behind growth the of auto industry's unit sales.

Investcapital
However, on monthly basis the total auto sales registered a decline of 8%MoM to 12,789 units in Feb-14 as compared to 13,910 units in the month of Jan-14. The high base effect of Jan-14 due to heavy buying on account of New Year registration was the major reason behind the auto sales decline during Feb'14.

Recommendation 'Hold' on INDU, HCAR and PSMC

Currently, INDU is trading at a PE of 7.7x and a dividend yield of 9.1% for FY14 and HCAR is trading at PE multiple of 6.7x on Mar'15 earnings estimates. Moreover, PSMC is trading at a PE of 7.0x with a dividend yield of 3.6% for CY14. We recommend 'Hold' on INDU, HCAR and PSMC with Jun-14 target prices of Rs415/share and Rs50/share and Rs187/share respectively.

 

 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 12, 2014, 05:50:55 PM
February witnessed MoM decline, while YoY showed growth!

Sales of locally assembled automobiles witnessed a decline of 8% MoM in February to 12,789 units as compared to 13,910 units in January 14 due to high base effect of January (new year car registration phenomenon). Major decline in MoM number, was again witnessed in HCAR (Honda Civic this time), while INDU & PSMC also showed a dip of 12% & 2%, respectively. Cumulative 8MFY14 volumes showed a growth of 6% YoY with HCAR leading the growth race, due to new model of Honda Civic & introduction of Honda City Aspire. On a cumulative basis, HCAR, PSMC & INDU witnessed an up-tick in volumes during 8MFY14 of 18% , 4% & 2% respectively, as compared to CPLY. 

Apart from the improved volumes due to new year car registration phenomenon, the recent appreciation of PKR bodes well for the margins of the auto assemblers in the coming quarters. On the other hand, we await any positive development from government side for the finalization of AIDP?II. As per recent news, PM has directed Commerce minister to take all the stakeholders in confidence and resolve the hurdles in growth of auto industry in shortest possible time.   

Tractor sales witnessed a robust growth in volumes of 218% MoM in February despite of hike in GST rate w.e.f. January 01, 2014 due to low base effect and genuine demand from farmers during on-going Rabi crop season (October-March). At current level, we have a positive stance on PSMC & INDU.

taurus
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 12, 2014, 06:08:56 PM
Rupee appreciation from gloom to bloom for auto assemblers

Latest monthly auto sales data published by PAMA shows that the combined sales for Passenger Vehicles (PV) and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) segment observed an impressive growth of 6% YoY to 87,951 units during 8mo FY14. This growth was largely driven by cars in 1301cc-1800cc segment, due to introduction of new Civic model and variants in Corolla and City brand. Moreover, restrictive car import policy that was initiated in Dec12 had a positive impact on car sales in the low-end segment during the period. On a sequential basis, auto sales plunged by 8% MoM (+1% YoY) to 12,789 units during Feb14, compared to 13,910 units sold last month. In PV segment, sales experienced a modest increase of 3% YoY to 67,106 units during 8mo FY14 primarily due to an uptick in the sales of Suzuki Cultus, resulting from a decline in imported car inventory. Moreover, improved consumer sentiment in the high-end segment (1301cc-1800cc) also aided sales volume in PV segment. Whereas, in LCV segment (including LCV, Van & Jeep), sales grew by 17% YoY in 8mo FY14 to 20,845 units, with the increase deriving from an improvement in the sales of Suzuki Bolan and Ravi.

Volumetric growth observed across the board

During 8mo FY14, HCAR maintained its  leadership position in terms of volumetric growth amongst its peers. The company posted sizable growth in volumes of 18% YoY (-14% MoM) to 14,821 units during the period under review. Accretion in sales volume was mainly due to the launch of new Civic and City Aspire models last year. INDU experienced moderate growth of 4% YoY (-12% MoM) to 22,626 units during 8mo FY14, mostly due to 3% YoY increase in Corolla sales. Recall that the company recently launched affordable variant of Corolla, Xli Standard, which has supported Corolla’s sales volume recently. Moreover, Hilux sales saw a small increase of 1% YoY, further contributing to INDU’s volumetric growth during the period. Lastly, PSMC experienced a modest increase of 2% YoY in its sales to 49,522 units in 8mo FY14. This growth comes from Bolan (+13% YoY) and Ravi (+25% YoY). Furthermore, Cultus sales also followed suit and posted growth of 17% YoY. However, Mehran and Swift’s sales declined by 7% YoY and 20% YoY, respectively.

PKR appreciation to bode well for the sector

Lately, exchange rate volatility remained a key concern for domestic auto assemblers since they are largely dependent on imported components (CKD) from Japan, Thailand and others countries. Stress on SBP’s foreign reserves that comes from heavy repayment to IMF resulted in PKR depreciation against major foreign currencies. Consequently, during 1H FY14, PKR/USD after peaking at its all-time high of 108.55, settled up by 5.6% to 105.40. Moreover, PKR/JPY also followed the same suit during the period, peaked at 1.095 before eventually closing at 1.009 (slightly up by 0.9%). Furthermore, an upward revision in power tariffs and along with an increase in transportation costs also mounted inflationary pressure on domestic Tier I and Tier II part suppliers.

As a result of volatile currency movement, all three auto assemblers (HCAR, INDU & PSMC) hiked their car prices twice during the period. But in 3Q FY14 to date, scales have tilted in favour of the auto assemblers as PKR has increased in value against the USD, reducing the cost of imported CKDs for auto assemblers. We believe the major beneficiary from the auto sector will be HCAR, followed by INDU.

Recall that HCAR’s CKD cost is largely denominated in USD, which is ~70% (including duties and taxes) of its car cost. Thus, any favorable and adverse movement in PKR/USD can result in change in its cost of producing cars. A similar case can be witnessed in INDU that has ~18% of cost of CKD denominated in USD. Conversely, since PSMC’s CKD cost is entirely denominated in JPY, we believe the company is not going to see any material change in its CKD cost.

Therefore, we expect gross margin (GPM) improvement for both HCAR and INDU, which are likely to be visible from 3Q CY14 onwards (assuming ~4-5mo lagging impact). However, if current exchange rate sustains at current levels we might see a cut in car prices for both HCAR and INDU. But we believe both the companies are likely to retain some portion of benefit to meet a target GPM for the year. Based on our preliminary estimates incorporating the PKR appreciation, even if we  reverse the second price hike (announced during 4Q CY13), our 3Q CY14 (quarter ending Sep14) earnings forecasts have an upside of  39% and 10% for HCAR and INDU respectively.

Apart from the benefit of lower cost of direct imports, it is very likely that auto assemblers will also experience a decline in cost on some localized parts. Mostly, price contract with the local OEM (local auto parts manufacturers) manufacturers are renewed every ~2 months. Therefore, assemblers are most likely to see a decline in their localised parts costs too. However, the magnitude of  the price cut on localized parts hinges on the auto assemblers bargaining power. We believe all the auto assemblers are likely to benefit from it, most notably PSMC.

Outlook

We believe PKR/USD appreciation is likely to trigger a short-term bull run in auto sector until the car prices are revised downwards. HCAR  is likely to benefit the most from the change in sector dynamics in the short term being a major beneficiary from PKR appreciation on CKD costs. Moreover, the company has USD denominated payable that is likely to result in Fx gain of PKR 397mn based on last closing (EPS impact of PKR 2.65) in 4Q FY14. Although our Dec14 TP for HCAR stands at PKR 52/sh, and we may see the scrip trade above our TP in the short term. We have a NEUTRAL stance on INDU (Dec14 TP: PKR 356/sh) and PSMC (Dec14 TP: PKR 173/sh). We will be coming up with a revised investment case shortly.

Global Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 18, 2014, 05:52:41 PM
Car Assemblers: Profits increasing

Recent rally of Pak rupee against US dollar and Japanese Yen has attracted investor’s interest in the auto sector. Investors believe that car assemblers will not pass impact to the end users and their margins will increase. Resultantly the share price of Pak Suzuki Motor (PSMC) has rallied 41%, Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) 18% and Indus Motor (INDU) 6% in last 18 trading sessions. Our calculation suggests EPS impact of around Rs1.95 and Rs2.5 on PSMC and INDU, respectively for every 1% appreciation of Pak rupee against US dollar and Japanese Yen, assuming car prices to remain unchanged.

We do not see any reduction in prices due to recent appreciation of Pak rupee. This will have positive earning impacts for the shareholders if PKR/US$ stays at current levels and companies successfully get new import contracts at lower rates. We cover ‘PSMC’ and ‘INDU’ in auto sector and have ‘Hold’ stance on both scrips at current levels.

Sales up 11%, volumes up 6% in Jul-Dec

The sales of car assemblers (PSMC, INDU, and HCAR) grew by 11%YoY to Rs66.7bn in 1HFY14, however, volumetric growth increases by 6% to 60,660 units in the same period. Amongst three, HCAR posted an improvement of 23% in sales to Rs16.6bn followed by PSMC and INDU with increase of 9% and 7%, respectively. Similarly, volumetric growth of HCAR was the highest, up 20% mainly on account of its new model ‘City Aspire’ which was launched in April 2013; however, PSMC and INDU posted an increase of just 3% each. Cumulatively, volumes of auto assemblers rose by 6% to 60,660 units. The continuous influx of imported cars and rising car prices affected the growth.

Currency rate: Key factor affecting earnings

The currency movement always remained the key driver of profitability in the local auto sector. Pak rupee depreciated by 6% against US dollar whereas appreciated by 1% against Japanese Yen in 1HFY14. HCAR is relatively more exposed to US dollar among three, whereas, PSMC has relatively more exposure in Japanese Yen. PSMC posted a decent profit of Rs673mn in 1HFY14 from loss of Rs391mn in same period last year. Indus profit grew decently by 38% while HCAR was down by 65% in 1HFY14 due to exchange losses in 1QFY14.

Key concerns

The auto policy for the next five years will be announced soon. The key concerns for the local auto assemblers includes i) increase in age limit of imported cars, ii) increase in duty on CKD kits, and iii) tax incentives to new entrants for indigenous manufacturing. Any such decision will have negative impacts for the auto sector. The upcoming Federal Budget may also contain measures related to this sector.

 topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 22, 2014, 08:48:48 AM
KARACHI: The local automobile industry might be more concerned over prospects of trade liberalisation with India but its fate, according to a Global Research report, lies in the government’s upcoming new auto policy.
Looking at the reputation of a pro-business government, PML-N government is expected to give space to the struggling auto industry while continuing its plan on liberalising trade with India, the report said.
Uneven sales volume coupled with inconsistent policies in the recent past have resulted in an uneven performance of the auto sector in Pakistan. Resultantly, the domestic auto industry failed to escape from its nascent stage and still faces similar problems when it comes to meeting its targeted deletion (localisation) program, the report added.
In contrast, India is currently amongst the sixth largest manufacturers of vehicles – Passenger Vehicles (PV) and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) – in the world. It had an annual car production of 4.1 million units in fiscal year 2013 (FY13), which is 29 times higher than production in Pakistan, recorded at 0.14 million units during the same period.
Moreover, a similar case is seen on comparing auto sector exports. In FY12, India exported $5 billion worth of automobiles or parts, while Pakistan exported just $128 million worth of auto parts during the same period.
In the past, Pakistani auto assemblers have remained dependent on the supply of completely knocked-down (CKD) and semi knocked-down (SKD) kits from Japan, Thailand and Malaysia.
India remains excluded from this list because of trade restrictions between Pakistan and India and hence, Pakistan local assemblers could not reap the benefits of importing cheap supplies from India. Similarly, owing to trade restrictions, car importers in Pakistan have been importing cars from Japan – a distant market compared to geographically closer markets.
On the brighter side, if the government allows Pakistani auto assemblers to import auto parts from India (parts that Pakistan does not produce), while imposing a ban on import of new or used cars, it will allow local assemblers to reduce car prices, added the report.
It will also enable auto assemblers to introduce newer car models in the local market at affordable prices, the report said.
Furthermore, import of technology in the auto sector will further enhance the process of deletion levels in the country. Nonetheless, allowing imports of new or used cars from India (considering existing custom tariffs on imports) is likely to reap benefits to car importers at the cost of local industry growth.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 22nd, 2014.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 26, 2014, 06:33:50 PM
Auto Industry cheering the BoJ action

From the vantage of the Auto Industry, CY13 was characterized by weak performance of the JPY against the USD and its consequent trickle down impact against the PkR. In this regard, the JPY depreciated by 12%YoY against the PkR in CY13 where looking into CY14, we expect persistent JPY weakness on the back of continued monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to revive its (note: Japan’s) economy. The weakness of the JPY combined with the strengthening PkR is the likely theme to play out for Autos in CY14. In this regard, the recent currency movements are estimated to have an astounding ~87% incremental impact on industry earnings (pass-through benefits aside). In response to the price movements, however, two players (INDU, HCAR) have already reduced prices by 0.5%-3.0%, mitigating the currency benefit by 15%. These positive developments within the Auto Industry have already been priced in by the market to an extent, with the Auto sector increasing by 5.5% over the past 13 trading sessions, outperforming the broader market by 6.2%. That said, we believe there is likely more price discovery on the cards within the sector pending clarity on the provisions of the AIDP-II, with a conviction call hinging on the said policy.

BMA
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 04, 2014, 05:33:05 PM
The Bell

Autos: Margin expansion transient; volumes to define outlook
 
Gains from PKR appreciation to be transient… 

The recent appreciation of PKR against USD (6.7%) and JPY (8.0%) in Mar-14 will bode well for the industry resulting in cost reduction. However we believe gains from PKR appreciation will be transient as the industry will not be able to sustain margins at higher levels due to limited pricing power in the backdrop of cheaper imports and weak volumes. INDU and HCAR have also depicted similar trend and have cut prices.

…Volumes to be the only game changer
We believe that the change in fortunes for the auto industry shall emanate only from sizable volumetric growth which would also lead to strong pricing power for the industry. 

Automobiles, a cyclical industry
Automobiles is inherently a cyclical industry, with volumes generally tracking the booms and bust of economy. Automobile volumes in Pakistan posted a stellar CAGR of 32% during FY02-07 on the back of average GDP growth of 6.0% during the period and fuelled by exponential rise in consumer credit loans.  However, volumes fell 47% in FY09 and have since grown at a CAGR of 8% due to weak economic growth. FY14 volumes are expected to be 24% lower than FY08 peak.

No major demand trigger on the horizon
There is no major demand trigger that can generate sizable volumes with motorization levels (motor vehicles per 1000 person), a key benchmark in gauging demand, already at par (19.5) with that of India (19). However improving macros going forward may provide the necessary impetus to volumes.

AIDP II to set direction
AIDP II, which is scheduled to be announced soon, will define the long-term bearings for the sector. As per the latest news reports, GoP is keen to invite new players into the sector with an incentive of reduced duties on CKD kits to boost competition, and this might further limit pricing power for existing assemblers. 


Estimates revised up; maintain Market weight on the sector
We have tweaked our estimates for INDU and PSMC owing to PKR appreciation and price cuts and have revised our PT of INDU and PSMC by 16% and 35% to PKR430/share and PKR225/share respectively.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 12, 2014, 07:21:17 PM
Car Sales up by significant 37%QoQ in 3QFY14


·         The latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA) reveals that local auto sales have shown a significant recovery on the sequential basis in 3QFY14.

·         The locally manufactured sales (including LCVs and Jeeps) stood at 38,869 units during 3QFY14 versus 28,411 units sold in the previous quarter, a growth of 37% QoQ. However, on YoY basis, the growth remained muted.

·         On the sequential basis, HCAR sales grew by a massive 85%QoQ followed by INDU with growth of 71%QoQ. On the flipside, PSMC underperformed its peers, but still depicted a decent growth of 14%QoQ.

·         In Mar’14, local assemblers sold 12,234 units, down 8%YoY and 4% from last month. We believe the slowdown in Mar’14 numbers can partially be attributed to deferred buying phenomena as all the three assemblers reduced their car prices in Mar’14.

 

·         Overall in 9MFY14, locally manufactured car sales stood at 100,121 units versus 96,323 units, an improvement of 4%YoY.

·         HCAR sales grew by 14%YoY to 16,792, while INDU and PSMC sales growth remained muted at 4% and 0%, respectively.

·         We believe the recent PkR appreciation bodes well for the local auto industry by substantially improving the margins scenario of the companies.

 shajar
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 12, 2014, 07:23:32 PM
Pakistan’s oil sales in FY14 to be highest ever

Marred by sluggish economic performance (5yr average GDP growth at 2.9%) and engulfed by the menace of circular debt, Pakistan’s oil sales during the past 5yrs (FY09-13) failed to live up to the precedent set in FY05-08. Such was the magnitude of negativity brought in by circular debt that 5yr volume CAGR (FY08-13) was recorded at just 1%, and if it was not for robust MS (motor spirit) sales during the aforementioned period (5yr CAGR at 17%) this growth could well have been in the red zone. Conversely, at the time when the industry was shielded from circular debt, its 3yr CAGR (FY05-08) growth clocked in at an impressive 8%, with FO (furnace oil) leading the way (3yr CAGR at 19%). Fast forward to 9MFY14, industry sales growth due to partial resolution of circular debt (leading to higher FO demand from IPPs) and on-going gas crisis (making consumers shift towards MS from CNG) has reached 11%YoY. At this run-rate, Pakistan’s oil sales may reach 21.5mn tons by the end of current fiscal year, an all-time high!                     .

9MFY14 oil sales better off by 11%YoY: In 9MFY14 we have seen industry selling 13.7mn tons as opposed to 12.3mn tons sold during the same period last year. 11%YoY growth witnessed during 9MFY14 was primarily due to 16%YoY increase in FO sales to 6.9mn tons while MS sales grew by 22%YoY to 2.8mn tons. Therefore, of 1.3mn tons incremental sales during the aforementioned period, 66% or 0.9mn tons contribution came from FO. In contrast to this, HSD (high speed diesel) sales remained unimpressive and virtually stagnant at previous year’s level of 4.8mn tons.

PSO fails to replicate industry growth: At the time when industry sales growth has clocked in at 11%, PSO remained laggard with sales growth of mere 4%YoY. This resulted in the company losing its market share, which from 66% in 9MFY13 fell to 62% in 9MFY14. This decline is mainly due to dull HSD sales; during the year company faced distribution woes which led to HSD sales declining to 2.6mn tons as opposed to 2.8mn tons, down 7%YoY. However, 7%YoY higher FO sales to 5.1mn tons more than made up for the gloom brought in by HSD sales. With summer season all but started, we believe higher demand from IPPs will enable PSO to regain some of its lost market share.                         .

Outlook Pakistan’s oil sales to reach 21.5mn tons: As mentioned above, commencement of summer season will improve FO sale of not just PSO but of the whole industry as power (electricity) demand starts to rise. Furthermore, with imminent economic recovery, we believe demand for HSD is also likely to pick pace. As for MS, we believe the demand will continue to grow as more and more consumers shift from CNG to MS. This impetus shall allow FY14 OMCs sales to clock in at all time high to 21.5mn tons

 AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 14, 2014, 05:30:01 PM
The Bell

Autos: Volumes take a breather in Mar-14
Mar-14 volumes dip 8% YoY

Autos volumetric sales for Mar-14 clocked in at 12,269 units, down 8% YoY. LCV variants yet again posted impressive growth of 13% YoY led by Hilux (+33% YoY). However, slump in volumes of passenger cars (-13% YoY) dragged overall volumes. 
HCAR and PSMC sales stumble while INDU sales remain flat
HCAR’s volumes for Mar-14 registered a decline of 12% YoY due to weak sales of civic variant (-39%) neutralizing the buoyancy of City (+20%). PSMC’s volumes plummeted by 16% YoY to 5,992 units primarily due to 26% YoY decline in Mehran volumes. Whereas INDU’s volumes remained flat overall at 4,051 units with high base effect of Fortunner (-86%) negating the exuberance of Hilux (+33%).   

Tractor sales still recovering from GST hike
Tractor sales remained weak in Mar-14 as well, falling 23% YoY, with both tractor manufacturers (MTL and AGTL) reeling from GST hike of 7% imposed in Jan-14.

Investment case
INDU has rallied by 30% since Mar-14 and we believe that the earnings improvement from PKR appreciation is already priced in at current levels. Our Dec-14 PT of PKR430 offers a downside of 10% along with a dividend yield of 5.4%. PSMC at current level offers a meager upside of 1.0% with a dividend yield of 2.0%. HOLD. 

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 14, 2014, 05:32:04 PM
Automobile sales review| up by 37.2%QoQ| Drop by 5.2% MoM
Overall automobile industry witnessed 5.2% MoM drop in volumetric sales in March'14 to 12,014 units against 12,678 units sold in previous month. On the quarter on quarter comparison industry reported 37.2% higher volumetric sales in 3QFY14 to 38,363 units against 27,971 units sold in 2QFY14. On whole it translated to 3.2% YoY higher volumetric sales in 9MFY14 to 99,023 units against 95,939 units in same period last year.

PSMC volumetric sales up by 14.2% QoQ

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) witnessed 14.2% growth in car sales on QoQ basis to 20,012 units in 3QFY14 against 17,526 units sold in previous quarter. Wherein on MoM basis sales were decreased by 13.7% to 5,992 units of cars and 2,112 units of motorcycles against 6,941 units of cars and 2,106 motorcycles were sold in Feb-14.

For PSMC Ravi, Swift and Mehran were the major contributors in QoQ growth in sales and individually posted 35%, 25.8% and 16.8% respectively growth in volumetric sales in 3QFY14.

We expect that PSMS may enjoy growth in volumetric sales in upcoming days, based on expected launch of new product Wagan R in this month which is replacement of Alto and will cater the middle income segment which is good omen for PSMC

Indus motors sales were up by 71% QoQ:

INDU performed well in this quarter and witnessed 71% QoQ growth in volumetric sales in 3QFY14 sold 11,548 units against last quarter's sales of 6,767 units. INDU is achieving growth due enhance in sales of Toyata Corolla and Hilux wherein recently launched SUV Fortuner is not getting market response as according to company's expectation while launching the locally assembled Fortuner back in last year.

 

HCAR- stunning growth in QoQ

Improving economic conditions from both financial and agricultural sector were the major reason to drive the high end car sale. HCAR being a well known for its high end cars witnessed fabulous growth in volumetric sales and posted 85% QoQ growth in sales in 3QFY14 and sold 6,803 units in this quarter against 3,684 units sold in previous quarter. Wherein on MoM basis company was not able to cross the Feb 14 sales of 2,232 units and 1,971 units of Honda Civic and Honda City were sold in March 14; translated 11.7% MoM decrease in sales.

Tractor players started to recover sales in this month

Tractors players (AGTL & MTL) started to recover its volumetric sales and managed to post 87% higher MoM sales in March 14 to 2,998 units against 1,605 units sold in previous month.

 

Valuation:

We exact that auto sector to post good top line and bottom line numbers in this year based on improve in volumetric sales and also benefiting from strengthen PKR against JPY and PKR which is good omen for auto players to enjoy increase in gross margin.

Based on our assumption PSMC, INDU and HCAR yield expected PE of 7.3x, 8.6x and 10.6x respectively. HOLD

SCS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 14, 2014, 05:33:58 PM
Autos: Positives priced-in; downgrade to U/P

Positives (new models, favorable auto policy and currency gains) are priced-in, the valuations of auto sector now seem expensive in our view. We are downgrading both PSMC and INDU to Under-perform from Neutral. They are trading at 20% and 17% premium to their respective PO’s.

Better than expected customer response on new launch, leading to above expected sales, favorable auto policy and further strengthening of PKR/USD can turn us positive on these stocks.

Latest data by PAMA indicates that total auto sales rose by 4% YoY to 100,233 units in 9MFY14, with Indus’ sales growing 3% YoY and HCAR’s up by 14%YoY; whilst PSMC’s remained flat.

In Mar-14, sales declined by 4% YoY to 12,272 units. While LCVs+4x4 combined sales are gaining strength ahead of peak demand season, the decline in overall sales was explained in large by a 23% drop in sales of the 800cc Suzuki Mehran. 

In 1000cc segment, PSMC is set to launch Suzuki Wagon R in Apr-14 to bolster leadership in this segment, since the suspension of production of Suzuki Alto in 2012. It is also considering introduction of two new models: New Alto 800cc 2014 and Swift Sedan 800cc 2014.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 14, 2014, 05:36:51 PM
Sector  Outlook  &  PAMA  Data– March’ 14

HCAR & INDU shine in QoQ sales increase

Sales of locally assembled automobiles witnessed a decline of 4% MoM in March. However, on a QoQ basis, HCAR, INDU & PSMC witnessed an up-tick in volumes during 3QFY14 of 85%, 71% & 14%, respectively. Cumulative 9MFY14 volumes show a growth of 4% YoY with HCAR leading the growth race, due to new model of Honda Civic & introduction of Honda City Aspire.

A double decline in MoM and YoY number was witnessed in both PSMC & HCAR during March, most likely due to customers holding back their purchases on account of PKR appreciation benefit. However, INDU saw a MoM growth, as it did take the lead in reducing prices and passing on a higher percentage price cut to consumers compared to its peers.

The continued appreciation of PKR in 4QFY14 (after Euro bond issue) bodes well for the margins of the auto assemblers. On the other hand, we await any positive development from governments’ side for the finalization of AIDP?II.   

Tractor sales witnessed a robust growth in volumes of 87% MoM in March as the low base effect created in the first two months of CY14 (hike in GST rate) wears off. QoQ sales, however did suffer by a hefty 62% due to pre-buying done in the previous quarter. 

 taurus
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 14, 2014, 05:38:44 PM
Car sales remain subdued in 9MFY14

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released the automobile production and sales figures for Mar-14. In today's Value Seeker, we are presenting an analysis of the auto production and sales performance during the said period.

Auto sales step up by 4%YoY to 100k units in 9MFY14

Combined sales of cars, jeeps and LCVs rose by 4%YoY to 100k units keeping the auto sales growth at minimal during 9MFY14. Car sales alone registered a meager jump of 1.5%YoY to 86.4k units whereas sale of LCV & Jeeps registered growth of an enormous 23%YoY to 13.8k units during the same period. The climb in auto was led by the phenomenal recovery in the economy during 9MFY14 as it supported the local auto demand. Better textile exports, boom in financial and agriculture sector were the major triggers behind the growth in auto sales during 9MFY14.

On monthly basis, auto sales posted a decline of 4%MoM in Mar-14 to 12.3k units as cars sales registered the decline of 8.4%MoM however LCVs sales grew by 25% MoM.

HCAR sale increase by 14%YoY in 9MFY14

Honda Cars Limited (HCAR) turned out to be the major assemblers that register a sales growth of gigantic 14%YoY to 16.8k units. Sale of both variants of HCAR, City and Civic, stepped up by a significant 21.1%YoY to 9.6k units and 5.3%YoY to 7.2k units, respectively during 9MFY14. Moreover, HCAR's financial year being March, the company posted a growth of a substantial 12.7%YoY to 23.3k units in Apr-Mar 2014.

Outlook: New models to support volume further

Although PKR has depreciated by 8.6% against USD but recover 12% YoY against JPY during 9MFY14 indicating a positive impact on cost by 3.4%. Moreover, current weakness of USD against PKR is expected to bring down cost of business further conversely the auto companies reduce the car and other vehicles prices during the month to pass on the impact of depreciation of USD to the end consumer. The lower prices of the vehicles attract the demand of cars in the coming period. Moreover, upcoming new models of vehicles, i.e. Pak Suzuki's Wagon R and Indus Motor's Corolla would add more demand of local assembled vehicles in the country.

InvestCap
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: tahirdxb on April 17, 2014, 10:56:45 PM
(http://urdu.aaj.tv/image/stories/151027_story.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on May 02, 2014, 05:03:11 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/702918/rationalisation-reduced-tariffs-likely-on-vehicle-import/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: newface on May 02, 2014, 08:59:00 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/702918/rationalisation-reduced-tariffs-likely-on-vehicle-import/

 :confused1: uuu
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: newface on May 02, 2014, 03:19:56 PM
Today offloaded 3k PSMC at avg. Rs. 208. Holding since 150. ab dubara below 150 uthaunga after budget
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 10, 2014, 09:35:03 AM
10MFY14: Local car sales up 3.8%

Pakistan’s local car sales (including light commercial vehicles LCVs, vans and jeeps) during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2014 (10MFY14) have reached 112,470 units, up 3.8% year on year (YoY) compared to 108,334 units in the same period last year.
On a monthly basis, locally manufactured auto sales have remained fairly stable at 12,250 units in April 2014 against 12,269 units in March 2014. However, auto sales improved 2% YoY from 12,011 units in April 2013.
Among individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales increased 2% YoY to 62,873 units during 10MFY14 as compared to 61,689 units last year. On a monthly basis, PSMC sales surged significantly to 7,359 units in April 2014, up 22.8% month-on-month (MoM) compared to 5,992 units in March 2014 and 17.5%YoY.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 10, 2014, 10:48:14 PM
Topline Alert: Pakistan Car sales up 3.8% in 10MFY14

Pakistan local car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during 10MFY14 have reached 112,470 units, 3.8%YoY higher as compared to 108,334 units in the same period last year.


 

§  On monthly basis, locally manufactured auto sales have remained fairly stable at 12,250 units in Apr 2014 versus 12,269 units in Mar 2014. However, auto sales improved by 2%YoY from 12,011 units in Apr 2013.

 

§  Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales increased by 2%YoY to 62,873 units during 10MFY14 as compared to 61,689 units last year. On monthly basis, PSMC sales surged significantly to 7,359 units in Apr 2014, up 22.8%MoM,  compared to 5,992 units in Mar 2014 and 17.5%YoY. We believe, this phenomenal increase was due to 1-3% reduction in prices of cars by PSMC at the start of Apr 2014. The company also launched its new variant ‘Wagon R’ in Apr 2014 which contributed 309 units in sales.

 

§  During 10MFY14, Indus Motors (INDU) sales remained stable at 29,581 units compared to 29,762 units in 10MFY13. However, on monthly basis, company posted a massive decline in sales to 2,854 units, down 29.6%MoM, from 4,051 units in Mar 2014 and 27.5%YoY. We link the decline in INDU volumes is due to the expected launch of new Corolla Model in Aug-Sep 2014.

 

§  Honda Cars (HCAR) sales surged by 13.3%YoY to 18,742 units 10MFY14. During Apr 2014, sales of HCAR decreased by 1.1%MoM to 1,950 units. Moreover, volumes increased by 9.6%YoY from 1,780 units in Apr 2013.

 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 12, 2014, 05:09:49 PM
 
The Bell
 
Apr-14 volumes rise marginally 2% YoY

Cumulative volumes for autos for Apr-14 clocked in at 12,250 units, up 2% YoY. 1000cc segment posted a 66% growth in volumes with introduction of Wagon R supporting the overall growth in the segment.
PSMC posts stellar growth as INDU falters
PSMC’s volumes for Apr-14 posted a robust growth of 18% YoY with Bolan (+52%), Cultus (+37%), Ravi (+19%) and new variant Wagon R (309 units) contributing to volumetric growth. INDU’s volumes took a plunge during Apr-14 (-27%) due to weak volumes of both Corolla (-19%) and Hilux (-57%). HCAR’s volumes posted a growth of 10% YoY with growth in both Civic (+10%) and City (+9%) variants.
Tractor sales remain weak
Tractor sales posted recovery in volumes with MTL registering 5% growth after posting negative growth in prior months of CY14. However continued slump in AGTL volumes (-18%) dragged overall tractor volumes (-5%). Tractors sales continue to remain weak in the absence of any demand trigger.
Investment case
At current levels INDU remains priced close to our Dec-14 PKR of PKR430/sh and offers a dividend yield of 6.2%. HOLD. PSMC at current levels remains attractive offering an upside of 20% to our Dec-14 PT of PKR225/sh along with a dividend yield of 2.4%. BUY.

elixir.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 12, 2014, 05:17:18 PM
Auto: Regulatory concern to restrict upside; Reiterate U/P

Latest data by PAMA indicates total auto sales increased by 2% YoY but were flat MoM at 12,250 units in Apr-14, mainly due to sharp decline in Corolla sales by 19% YoY in anticipation of new model launch in Oct-14.
 

The launch of Wagon R by PSMC was the highlight of the month, with 309 cars being sold; sales of PSMC beat the overall industry with volumes up 18%YoY in Apr-14 and +31%/+42%YoY in Mehran/Cultus sales in Jan-Apr period.

Any changes on policy/taxes front in upcoming FY15 Budget will be key swing factor for volumes from hereon. As per news, govt is planning to reduce import duty on cars on all segments, which will dent the performance of local players.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the regulatory front, where uncertainty could be a drag on near-term stock performance. We reiterate U/P on both PSMC and Indus. PSMC is trading at 7.3x 2014E earnings and 10% premium to our PO while Indus is trading at a FY14E P/E of 9.8x and 7% premium to our PO.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 12, 2014, 05:39:24 PM
Apr'14: Auto sales remain stagnant MoM

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released the auto sales figures for the month of Apr-14. The said month revealed a dull picture as the sales remained stagnant at 12,250 units while in 10MFY14 auto sales posted a minimal growth of 3.6%YoY. In today's Value Seeker we present an analysis and outlook of the same.

Auto Sales extend by 3.6%YoY in 10MFY14

With a slower pace, the auto sales during 10MFY14 posted a nominal increase of 3.6% to 112,470 units as compared to 108,531units in the same period last year. Better than expected corporate demand of executive model of Honda City and Suzuki Cultus, registering a growth of 20%YoY to 10,786 units and 15%YoY to 12,521 units respectively were the major drivers in the growth of automobile sales during the said period. However, in absence of any major competitor in its category, demand of Suzuki Ravi Pickup remained strong as its sales grew by 20%YoY to 10,175 units as compared to 8459 units in the corresponding period last year. The better GDP growth during the period is expected to be the major factor which fueled up the demand of automobile in the country.

Stagnant sales of automobile were observed in Apr-14 at 12,250units as compared to last month of Mar-14. The expectation of new model of Corolla may be the major factor behind the decline in auto sales during the Apr-14 as it was the only car which experienced reduced sales by 22%MoM to 2648 units.

HCAR and PSMC post positive growth

The company wise analysis revealed that Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) performed well among its peers as it registered a growth of 13%YoY to 18,742 units in 10MFY14 as compared to 16,536 units in the same period last year. Sales of Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) variants were also on the rising trend but pace was very slow as the same grew by 1.92%YoY to 62,873 units. However, Indus Motor not only lost its market share by 1.3% but also reduce its total sales by 1.27%YoY to 29,581 units.

Outlook: Positive 

A strong PKR against USD and weaken JPY is expected to keep the cost of production at lower side, while continuous recovery in economy is expected to support the auto sales further. However, any negative news on import policy and tax front is expected to hurt the sales volume of the auto sector. Moreover, upcoming new models of Indus Motor's Corolla and City would add more demand of local assembled vehicles in the country..

InvestCap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 16, 2014, 07:01:57 PM
Jan-Mar’14 Auto Sector review

Since the reduction in age-limit of imported used cars, the local auto industry is performing well in term of sales volume and profitability. The current appreciation of PKR against USD and JPY is also supporting the bottom-line of the sector. In today’s Value Seeker we review the performance of automobile companies of our universe (INDU, PSMC and HCAR) during Jan-Mar 14 coupled with recommendation and outlook on the same.

Profitability stepped up by massive 52%YoY in Jan-Mar 14

The net profit of the auto sector grew by colossal 52%YoY to Rs2.0bn during Jan-Mar 14 as compared to Rs1.3bn in the same period last year. The phenomenal growth in profitability is attributable to increase in sales prices by 3% and increase in sales volume by 2.3%YoY.

Furthermore, the appreciation of PKR against USD and JPY reduced the cost of the sector as 50-60% parts were imported from Japan and Thailand. This is visible from the rise in gross margins which improved by 230bps to 8% during Jan-Mar14 as compared to the same period last year.

HCAR: The star performer among peers

Although all the assemblers posted growth but Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) turned out to be the top assembler posting a sturdy increase in profitability of 170%YoY to Rs632mn. Better sales volume coupled with exchange gains were the major factors behind the gigantic growth of the company. Indus Motor (INDU) and Pak Suzuki (PSMC) registered growth of 29%YoY and 22%YoY respectively during Jan-Mar 14.

Recommendation – ‘Hold’ on PSMC, INDU and HCAR

Currently, HCAR is trading at a PE multiple of 9.70x and dividend yield of 1.80% on Mar15 earnings, INDU is trading at a PE of 7.72x and dividend yield of 9.1%  for FY14E and PSMC is trading at a PE of 8.3x with dividend yield of 3.0% for CY14. At present, we recommend ‘HOLD’ on HCAR, INDU and PSMC with Dec-14 TPs of Rs74, Rs415 and Rs197 per share respectively.

InvestCap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 21, 2014, 08:14:14 PM
Proposals, Budget 2015: Auto Sector: Neutral to Negative Pick: PSMC (TP: PKR174/?)

Issue: Reduction in duty on imported cars
Proposal: To provide less expensive alternative to locally assembled cars, govt.  plans  to reduce
import duty on used cars by up to 50pc; however, the age?limit for used cars shall stay constant at
3 years. In addition, new tariff may be introduced for 650cc and 660cc vehicles.
Step & Impact: Reduction in import duty will not cut down car prices to a reasonable extent since
when import duties are slashed, demand of vehicles boosts up leading to higher auction rates of
vehicles in auction houses of Japan. However, any moderate reduction in imported used cars’ prices
may partially affect sales of domestically manufactured small cars. – Neutral to Negative
Issue: Rationalization of taxes
Proposal: The auto sector has proposed: (i) Govt. should reduce Turnover Tax from 1pc to 0.2pc on
turnover of authorized dealers of vehicle manufacturers; (ii) Govt. should eliminate/reduce
withholding tax (WHT) at 3.5pc on sale by authorized dealers; and (iii) WHT on import of raw
materials and plant and machinery should be reduced from 5pc to 1pc.
Step & Impact: Both the proposed reductions would help improve sales volumes on account of stock
availability and healthy competition besides enhancing documentation. – Neutral
Issue: 10% FED on cars
Proposal: Auto sector has proposed that Federal Excise Duty (FED) on locally manufactured motor
vehicles (1800cc or above) be exempted or eliminated.
Step & Impact: Elimination of FED on locally produced motor vehicles will not only restore volumes
lost but also contribute to national exchequer. – Neutral to Positive
Issue: Ban on CNG kits and discouraging use of CNG in cars
Proposal: We foresee ban on CNG kits to continue in Budget 2014?15 together with steps being taken
in Budget 2015 that would discourage use of CNG in private transport vehicles.
Step & Impact: Neutral
Issue: Auto Industry Development Plan (AIDP) ? II
Proposal: AIDP?II is due since end?Jun 2012. If the govt. addresses this issue in Budget 2014? 15,
it would provide clarification on changes in duty structure of CKD units and CBUs.
Step & Impact: Neutral
Issue: Reduction of GST on tractors
Proposal: Ministry of National Food Security and Research has called for reduction in GST on
tractors from 16pc to 10pc mentioning “following levy of sales tax, production of tractors had
shown a declining trend”.
Step & Impact: FBR has not supported this proposal claiming that a gradual increase in rate of
sales tax from 5pc to 16pc was made in light of ECC decision of Jan 20, 2012 while Finance Division
has not supported proposal on grounds that ZTBL is not in a position to enhance its
share of loans for agricultural tractors due to resource constraints. –Neutral to Negative

AHCML
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 23, 2014, 05:42:10 PM
Auto sector pleasure performance persist

In our today’s morning report we would analyze the performance of Pakistan automobile sector during the 10MFY14 as per the data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).

Sales & production up 4%

As per data available, the auto sales including Car, LCV & Pickup surged by 4% to 112,470 units in 10MFY14 against 108,334 units in 10MFY13. This is primarily owing to low base for Honda cars, higher farmer income and downward revision in age limit of imported cars.  Similarly, production surge by 4% to 111,696 units versus 107,651 units in 10MFY13 due to better demand.

Azee Research

Modest growth seen in April

For the month of April auto sales also hike as cumulative Car, LCV & Pickup sales up by 2% YoY to 12,250 units against 12,011 units sold in April 2013. Similarly, April production of Car, LCV & Pickup marginally increase by 0.4% to 12,154 units compared to 12,104 units in April 2013.

MoM sales remain stagnant

On MoM basis, auto sales remain flat at 12,250 units in April’14. While production down by 8% MoM to 12,154 units versus 13,220 units in Mar’14.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 02, 2014, 06:50:02 PM
Autos to remain unaffected in budget FY15

Event

Contrary to market’s expectation we believe Budget FY15 (scheduled to be announced on 3rd June) would largely remain a non-event for auto assemblers. Given fiscal constraints, we see very low chances of (1) reduction in duties of both CBUs and CKDs and (2) decrease in sales tax on tractors. Being an industry friendly government we believe demand of All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association (APMDA) to relax age limit from 3 years to 5 years has very low chances of being accepted. We maintain our preference for INDU in the sector.

Impact

Key concerns for auto sector: We highlight key agendas in debate for auto industry as follows: (1) Reduction in Complete Knock Down (CKD) duty from 32.5% to 20%, (2) decrease in Federal Excise Duty (FED) from 10%, (3) duty relaxation in Completely Built Up (CBU) units, (4) increase in age limit of used imported cars and (5) change in GST on tractors.

(1) Reduction in CKD duty: Auto assemblers have been long demanding reduction in CKD duties from 32.5% to 20%. We see low chances of duty reduction on CKD given govt.’s weak fiscal position. However, in case of duty reduction the benefit would be passed on to customers in the form of lower prices, in our view. Our preliminary calculations suggest ~5-7% decline in prices would be seen if the suggested reduction is incorporated.

FS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 04, 2014, 08:19:15 PM

Auto: Neutral to Positive
Pick: PSMC, TP: PKR174/?

Issue: Hike in duty on used vehicles
Proposal: Fixed amounts of duty and taxes on used vehicles revised upward by 10pc approximately;
Impact: ? Neutral to Positive
Issue: Rationalization of taxes
Proposal: Exemption of duty and taxes on Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) rationalized: HEVs upto
1800 cc granted 50pc exemption of duty and taxes and above 1800 cc granted 25pc exemption of duty
and taxes;
Impact: – Neutral
Issue: 10% FED on cars
Proposal: It has been proposed to withdraw FED on locally manufactured vehicles exceeding 1800cc.
Impact: Elimination of FED on locally produced motor vehicles will not only restore volumes lost
but also contribute to national exchequer. – Neutral to Positive
Issue: Tax collected by manufacturers of motor vehicles
Proposal: It is proposed that tax at the same rate be collected by the manufacturers of motor
vehicles as is prescribed for registration of new locally  manufactured private motor vehicle. If
the person registering a motor vehicle for the first time is the same person who purchased the car
locally or imported it, and paid tax at that stage, then the Excise and Taxation Departments will
not collect the advance tax at the time of registration;
Impact: Neutral
Issue: Two new higher tax slabs
Proposal: Currently the highest rate of tax is for vehicles above 2000CC. It is also proposed that
two higher slabs may be added for vehicle from 2501 to 3000cc and above 3000cc with higher rates of
tax. For non?filers the rates will be double;
Impact: Neutral

Issue: Auto Industry Development Plan (AIDP) ? II
Proposal: AIDP?II is due since end?Jun 2012. AIDP?II  has not been addressed in Budget 2014?15; had
this been done it would have provided clarification on changes in duty structure of CKD units &
CBUs.
Impact: Neutral
Issue: Adjustable Advance Income Tax collected with MVT
Proposal: Rates of adjustable advance income tax collected with Motor Vehicle Tax (MVT) from
private cars under section 234 were last revised in 2008. In order to account for inflation the
rates are proposed to be revised and brought closer to the tax collected by provincial motor
vehicle authorities;
Impact: Neutral
Issue: Collection of Advance Income Tax
Proposal: It is proposed that advance income tax be collected by Excise and Taxation Departments on
transfer of private motor vehicles for a period of 5 years. The rate of tax will be same as that
for registration of a new motor vehicle and will be reduced by 10pc in each of subsequent years;
Impact: Neutral
Issue: Reduction of GST on tractors
Proposal: To encourage use of tractors by the growers it is proposed that the sales tax will
continue to be charged at the reduced rate of 10pc from the current 16pc.
Impact: – Positive for MTL & AGTL

AHCML
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 06, 2014, 07:39:06 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/718095/abolition-of-10-fed-only-on-local-cars-unfair-move/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 10, 2014, 02:25:38 PM
new trucks

http://www.dysin.com.pk/content/products

http://epaper.dawn.com/Advt.php?StoryImage=10_06_2014_001_007

looks like copy of mercedes, hence "german technology"
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2014, 06:48:08 PM
AKD Daily
 
Autos: May'14 sales review & Budget FY15 update

 
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released auto numbers for May'14. According to the data, overall industry volumes (Cars + LCVs) grew by 2.6%YoY in 11MFY14 to stand at 124,807 units where on MoM basis a marginal increase of 0.7% was recorded with volumes of 12,337 units in May'14. HCAR recorded highest sequential sales growth in May'14, up 16%MoM to 2,260 units, driven by 16%MoM growth in sales of Civic and City. Conversely, INDU sales growth during the same period was realized at 2.2%YoY as the company sold 2,917 units. This is despite 2.5x MoM growth in Hilux sales. PSMC on the other hand showed a decline of 8.3% on MoM basis as volumetric sales were recorded at 6,465 units with major decline in Cultus and Mehran sales. In the Budget FY15, which was announced earlier this month, the GoP gave favor to local OEMs in respect of i) withdrawal of FED on more than 1800cc vehicles and ii) imposing additional 10% on duty on imported cars which will give room for local OEMs to increase sales. At current levels, INDU remains our top pick in the auto space, the scrip is currently trading at a FY15F PER of 8.9x and has 5.3% upside to our target price of PkR500/share.
 
Sales volumes for cars that were registered in May'14 showed a decline of 2.6%MoM/10.4%YoY to 10,557 units. Resultantly, 11MFY14 car sales (ex-LCVs) stood at 107,789 units, recording a marginal decline of 0.5%YoY. Company wise breakup for May'14 sales is given as follows:                   .
 
PSMC: With the launch of Wagon R in Apr'14, the company sold 309 units in the mentioned month and its total sales were recorded at 7,050 units, one of the highest in the current year. In May'14 sales of WagonR registered 71%MoM increase while Cultus volumes declined by 31%MoM, this shows that the former has cannibalized the latter as cumulative volumes (ex-Mehran) remained flat. PSMC sold 6,465 units in May'14 down by 8.3%MoM/7.3%YoY, which is primarily due to lower sales of Mehran in our view. Our target price for PSMC is PkR230/share which implies an Accumulate stance at current levels.
 
INDU: The Company sold 2,917 units in May'14, up 2.2%MoM but down by 23%YoY. Corolla, the company's flagship brand recorded sales of 2,443 units, down by 7.7%MoM. The decline in Corolla sales is mainly due to anticipation of new model of Corolla, which is to be launched in 1QFY15. The company sold 446 units of Hilux (up 2.5x MoM) and 28 units of Fortuner (flat on MoM basis) in May'14. With decision to withdraw FED on +1800cc vehicles taken place in the recently announced budget, we expect sales of Fortuner and VIGO to augment. At current levels we have an Accumulate stance on the scrip with TP of PkR500/share, which implies 5.3% upside, where we will look to revisit our investment case for INDU post start of FY15.
 
HCAR: The company sales were recorded at 2,260 units in May'14, up 16%MoM while are down 6%YoY. Both Civic and City managed to clock in MoM sales growth of 16% each to 871 and 1,389 units, respectively.
Tractors: On this front, MTL and AGTL both showed decline of 19% and 52%MoM, respectively, to record sales of 2,365 units and 752 units, respectively, in May'14. However, with GoP taking a decision to slash down the sales tax on tractors from current 16% to 10% in the recently announced Budget FY15, we believe the sales of this segment to receive a much needed boost. Keeping the aforementioned developments in mind, we believe this MoM decline is unlikely to be repeated post Jun’14.             .
 
Investment Perspective & Outlook: The market continues to wait for the AIDP-II, which will dictate future directions for the industry. That said, Budget FY15 can be termed as a positive for the auto sector as the GoP extended a marginal favor to local OEMs. We maintain Market Weight stance on the Auto Sector, which has gained 34%CYTD, outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 17%. Our top pick in the sector remains INDU, which is trading at FY15F PER of 8.9x and provides an upside of 5.3% to target price of PkR500/share. Accumulate.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2014, 06:49:56 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: Positives in pipeline
Auto volumes take a backseat in May-14

Volumes for the month of May-14 clocked in at 12,337 units, down 7.3% YoY and flat MoM. On aggregate basis, 11MFY14 volumes have risen marginally by 2.6% YoY to 124,807 units. Weak volumes for May-14 were primarily driven by INDU (volumes down 23% YoY) whereas PSMC’s volumes remained flat overall aided by the newly launched Wagon R.
FY15 budget, prequel to ADP II
The government has announced some key relief measures for the local auto industry in FY15 budget. The GoP has decided to slash FED (10%) on locally assembled passenger vehicles above 1800cc engine category and has also imposed 9-10% duty hike on imported used cars across different engine capacities. These measures provide an indication of pro-assembler attitude of the current regime which may become more apparent in the upcoming ADP II where duties on CKD import kits may be slashed.
PSMC to be the major beneficiary
The local auto sector will benefit from ~10% duty hike in imported cars in the form of increment in volumes since it would reduce price competition from imported cars. PSMC would be the major beneficiary from duty hike on used cars as imported cars under 1300cc category directly compete with PSMC which is the sole producer in this category.
Investment case
At last closing price, INDU offers a downside of 8% to our Dec-14 PT of PKR430/sh along with a dividend yield of 5.5%. HOLD, whereas PSMC offers an upside of 5% to our Dec-14 PT of PKR225/sh and a dividend yield of 2%. BUY.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2014, 07:02:50 PM
  Pakistan Car sales up 2.6% in 11MFY14


§  Pakistan local car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during 11MFY14 have reached 124,807 units, 2.6%YoY higher as compared to 121,636 units in the same period last year.

§  On monthly basis, locally manufactured auto sales recorded at 11,809 units in May 2014 which is stable on month on month basis but declined by 7%YoY.

§  Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales increased by 1.8%YoY to 69,866 units during 11MFY14 as compared to 68,660 units last year. On monthly basis, PSMC sales dropped to 6,993 units in May 2014, down 5.0%MoM,  compared to 7,359 units in Apr 2014 while remained fairly stable 0.3%YoY.

§  During 11MFY14, Indus Motors (INDU) sales declined by 3.1%YoY to 32,498 units compared to 33,530 units in 11MFY13. However, on monthly basis, company posted an increase in sales to 2,917 units, up 2.2%MoM, from 2,854 units in Apr 2014. On the other hand, sales declined by massive 22.6% from 3,768 units in May 2013. We link the decline in INDU volumes is due to the expected launch of new Corolla Model in July, 2014. 

§  Honda Cars (HCAR) sales surged by 11%YoY to 21,002 units 11MFY14. During May 2014, sales of HCAR increased by 16%MoM to 2,260 units. Moreover, volumes decreased by 5.5%YoY from 2,392 units in May 2013.

  topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2014, 07:10:36 PM
Automobile sector great margins, BUY PSMC

Pakistani automobile sector has been protected by the government by taking feasible decisions to discourage the import of finished automobiles. The growth in automobile sector remained stagnant during FY14. The industry also contributes its due share in the GDP of the country via import duties, sales tax, federal excise duties etc. Local car assemblers are benefiting from appreciating PKR against JPY and USD nowadays. There margins are swelling which is being observed in latest financial results of auto companies.

Withdrawal of FED on 1800cc vehicles:


The federal budget for FY15 is seems to be beneficiary for the local auto assemblers.  The Ministry of Finance has proposed to withdraw the 10% excise duty on locally made 1,800cc vehicles which will result in decrease in selling price. The Indus motors company (INDU) will be major beneficiary in form of increase in volumetric sales of Fortuner and Hilux.

Trade with India – a favourable stance..

Automobile being a highly import sensitive sector will also get benefits in term of low freight charges, availability of raw material at low rate then the Japanese market.

We expect that local players only will be benefited if government only allow import of raw material, inputs, machine tools, machinery & equipment and other set of products categorized under industrial inputs rather making attractive market for Indian finished vehicles.

Automobile sector maintained the flow in May 14

As per the latest data released by the PAMA for the month of May 14, overall monthly volumetric sales remained inactive and 12,170 units of locally assembled vehicles were sold during May 14 which is almost unchanged as compare to April’s sales of 12,162 units.

While looking at YoY basis overall industry sales grows by 1.9% to 123,365 units in 11MFY14 against 121,047 units sold in same period last year. The HCAR is on the driving seat to drive the growth of overall volumetric sales with 16% MoM growth which is mainly due to customer’s preference to high end luxury cars.

Tractor sales down by 30% on both MoM and YoY

Due to off session, increase in prices and higher taxes on tractors led the tractor industry to massive drop in sales by 30% MoM and same in YoY. During May 14 MTL sold 2,365 units and AGTL sold 752 units against 2,907 and 1,553 respectively sold in April 14.

Valuation:

We believe that there are still many hopes alive with auto sector mainly PSMC. The key triggers for expected charm include swelling margins, increasing local demand and positive side of Pak-India trade. The outperform capital market, good crops and growth in remittances will also drive the local sales demand.

Currently PSMC yields lowest expected PE of 8.3x in the industry which is still attractive to take long position in it. Wherein HCAR and INDU are yielding PE of 14xand 11.5x respectively.

We maintain BUY stance for PSMC. And HOLD stance for both INDU and HCAR

SCS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2014, 07:11:42 PM
Sales of locally assembled automobiles witnessed a nominal growth of 1% on MoM and decline of 7% on a YoY basis in May’14. However, on a company wide basis, HCAR and INDU saw a positive MoM change, while PSMC’s volumes faltered. Cumulative 11MFY14 volumes show a growth of 3% YoY with HCAR leading the growth race among the established players. MoM recovery was also seen in Dewan Motor with old stock being, sold as no production has been made since the last three months.

Contribution from the recently launched Wagon R stood at 528 units showing a MoM growth of 71% (launch in the latter half of April’14). All eyes are now on the launch of new Corolla model in July, after a hiatus of more than a decade. HCAR is also expected to roll out the new model of City in 2HFY15. Both the new models have received positive reviews regionally and we expect sales of both companies to remain on the higher side, post launch.

While the tractor sales dipped MoM by 30% in May, the biggest beneficiary of budget was the Tractor industry, with GST reduced from 16% to 10% from FY15. This move will boost the sagging sales from next month onwards.

taurus
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2014, 07:13:16 PM
We are upgrading our stance on the sector from U/P to Neutral. Our rolled forward PO for INDU is PRs478 (up 22% and trading close to our PO), while our PO for PSMC is up 30% to PRs225 (trading at our PO).

We have raised our earnings estimates for INDU (by 0.6%/5.6%/4.1% to PRs43.1/56.1/62.0) and PSMC (by 3.9%/5.2%/12.3% to PRs27.3/29.4/28.5) based on (1) improved demand outlook post budgetary measures, bumper wheat crop, and lower interest rates ahead, and (2) improved margins on stable PKR/USD outlook for next two years.

We believe increase in used cars import duty by 10% should provide impetus to local industry sales, while removal of 10% FED on above 1800-cc cars will benefit Fortuner sales.

We prefer INDU over PSMC due to 1) quality of vehicles, 2) expected increase in Fortuner and Hilux sales post FED removal on above 1800cc cars, 3) launch of New Corolla Model in Aug-14 and 4) stable currency outlook, which will benefit INDU as company has higher exposure to PKR/USD than peers.

Upgrade to Neutral from U/P; Indus preferred pick

We are upgrading our stance on the sector from U/P to Neutral based on (1) improved demand outlook post budgetary measures, bumper wheat crop, and lower interest rates ahead and (2) relatively improved margins on stable PKR/USD outlook for next two years. After incorporating revised sales and exchange rate assumptions, our rolled forward PO for INDU is PRs478 (up 22%; stock trading close to our PO), while our PO for PSMC is up 30% to PRs225. We remain concerned on
 (1) delay in rolling out of AIDP?II which is key for clarity on sector outlook where any significant increase in CKD duties could turn us negative on the sector
(2) limited recovery in auto financing as banks remain risk averse and
3) short term impact of advance tax which will now be collected by assemblers and thus increase prices.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on June 14, 2014, 11:47:25 PM
some predict auto sector will replicate recent pharma sector performance, any views
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 15, 2014, 12:19:18 AM
some predict auto sector will replicate recent pharma sector performance, any views

INSHALLAH ALLAH sub ki zuban meethey karay. Mian to PSMChold kiye betha hoan 2 weeks say
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Afzal on June 15, 2014, 03:07:29 PM
KASB preferring INDU over PSMC ..... but recent announcment of 50 K yellowcabs ...which would most probably be suzuki.... now which one can have better rally??


We are upgrading our stance on the sector from U/P to Neutral. Our rolled forward PO for INDU is PRs478 (up 22% and trading close to our PO), while our PO for PSMC is up 30% to PRs225 (trading at our PO).

We have raised our earnings estimates for INDU (by 0.6%/5.6%/4.1% to PRs43.1/56.1/62.0) and PSMC (by 3.9%/5.2%/12.3% to PRs27.3/29.4/28.5) based on (1) improved demand outlook post budgetary measures, bumper wheat crop, and lower interest rates ahead, and (2) improved margins on stable PKR/USD outlook for next two years.

We believe increase in used cars import duty by 10% should provide impetus to local industry sales, while removal of 10% FED on above 1800-cc cars will benefit Fortuner sales.

We prefer INDU over PSMC due to 1) quality of vehicles, 2) expected increase in Fortuner and Hilux sales post FED removal on above 1800cc cars, 3) launch of New Corolla Model in Aug-14 and 4) stable currency outlook, which will benefit INDU as company has higher exposure to PKR/USD than peers.

Upgrade to Neutral from U/P; Indus preferred pick

We are upgrading our stance on the sector from U/P to Neutral based on (1) improved demand outlook post budgetary measures, bumper wheat crop, and lower interest rates ahead and (2) relatively improved margins on stable PKR/USD outlook for next two years. After incorporating revised sales and exchange rate assumptions, our rolled forward PO for INDU is PRs478 (up 22%; stock trading close to our PO), while our PO for PSMC is up 30% to PRs225. We remain concerned on
 (1) delay in rolling out of AIDP?II which is key for clarity on sector outlook where any significant increase in CKD duties could turn us negative on the sector
(2) limited recovery in auto financing as banks remain risk averse and
3) short term impact of advance tax which will now be collected by assemblers and thus increase prices.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 19, 2014, 07:19:56 PM
The Bell
 
Autos: Volumetric triggers priced in
INDU and THALL to be in limelight

Auto sector is expected to remain in limelight where we expect volumetric growth on account of much awaited Corolla 2014 model and from Punjab Taxi scheme to stimulate operating performance of the auto assemblers and peripheries of the auto sectors. Major impact of these developments would accrue to INDU, PSMC and THALL.
Corolla 2014 model to be earnings accretive
Launch of Corolla 2014 model by INDU would likely drive its volumes and also result in higher volumes for THALL. We expect that incremental volumes from Corolla 2014 model would stand at 5,000 units and would lift FY15 earnings of INDU and THALL by 14.5% to PKR63.2 and 7.4% to PKR24.5. 

Punjab taxi scheme is also a major trigger; await clarity
Punjab taxi scheme could be another major upside for Autos sector volumes (as highlighted in our last note titled: “PSMC: A major catalyst on the horizon”). This would likely result in gains for THALL as it provides A/c units to PSMC for its Bolan variant. In case, Government is able to utilize 50% of its targeted volumes of Bolan, volumes would further rise by 10k and lift our THALL’s FY15 EPS to PKR25.9 (+6%). However, we have not yet incorporated any gains from this scheme.
 
Investment case revised upwards
We have revised our Dec-14 PT for INDU and THALL to PKR520/sh (+21%) and PKR190/sh (+8%) respectively factoring incremental volumes from Corolla 2014 model. At current levels, INDU offers an upside of 2% to our Dec-14 PT along with a dividend yield of 4%, we maintain HOLD. THALL trades close to our Dec-14 PT, with a dividend yield of 3.5%, we thus upgrade it to HOLD.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 24, 2014, 06:49:19 PM
Turn in fortunes of Pak Autos gaining momentum

• We believe the positive turn in Pak Autos fortunes is gaining momentum with the sector surrounded
by positive news flows.
• After a modest FY14E (+3% YoY sales growth in 11MFY14), we believe local auto assemblers are set
for a strong FY15F.
• We expect units sales can rise by as much as 50% YoY on the back of (1) Punjab government’s
yellow cab scheme, (2) expected launch of eleventh generation Corolla and (3) favorable budgetary
measures.
• At the same time, a strong PKR vis-à-vis JPY and US$ points towards a robust margin outlook as
auto assemblers have not passed on the full impact of the same to end consumers, in our view.
• Our preferred play in the sector remains Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC), where our Target Price
shoots to Rs285 if the yellow cab scheme is incorporated. We maintain ‘Hold’ on Indus Motor Company
(INDU).
Exciting volumes growth ahead…
We believe the positive turn in Pak Autos fortunes is gaining momentum with the sector surrounded
by positive news flows. FY14E turned out to be a modest year for the sector, where unit sales have
inched up by 3% YoY in 11MFY14. We believe Pak Autos are set for a strong FY15F, where we expect
unit sales can rise by as much as 50% YoY to 200k units on the back of (1) Punjab government’s
50,000 units yellow cab scheme, (2) recent launch of Wagon-R by PSMC, (3) expected launch of
eleventh generation Corolla by INDU and (4) favorable budgetary measures. In budget FY15, the
Federal government had eliminated FED on Fortuner and increased duties on imported CBUs.
Furthermore, media reports suggests government may allow import of CNG kits by local auto
assemblers (banned in November 2011), which should further boost industry sales.
…while strong PKR likely to boost margins
Meanwhile, we anticipate a strong PKR vis-à-vis JPY and US$ points towards a robust margin outlook
for the local auto assemblers in FY15F. We believe the full impact of YTD 2014 PKR gains (6%
against JPY and US$ each over last four months) have not been passed on to the end consumers. Our
back of the envelope working suggests that for every 1% PKR gains vs. JPY and USD, Pak Suzuki
(PSMC) and Indus Motor (INDU) have an annualized earnings impact of 8%
and 6% respectively.

JS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 27, 2014, 10:53:47 AM
GAIL R TRADING STARTED
DLOUBLE HONAY KAY CHANCES LAY LO

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 27, 2014, 11:05:57 AM
GAIL R TRADING STARTED
DLOUBLE HONAY KAY CHANCES LAY LO


GAIL capped  :dance   :clap1:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 27, 2014, 11:12:07 AM
GAIL R TRADING STARTED
DLOUBLE HONAY KAY CHANCES LAY LO


GAIL capped  :dance   :clap1:

bhaio lay lo
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 27, 2014, 01:36:00 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/4542:budget-traction-for-tractors/?date=2014-06-27
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: mustafaazhar on June 30, 2014, 12:31:43 PM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL? 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 09, 2014, 04:03:44 PM
Pakistan Automobiles: A mix of positives and negatives


Significant developments have taken place within the Auto sector of-late where the imposition of advance income tax on purchase of new vehicles poses a significant threat to volumes of local assemblers. In this regard, the tax has already resulted in price hikes of PKR10k-PKR150k for locally assembled vehicles with the quantum of increase segregated between income tax filers and non-filers (higher magnitude for non-filers). While this bodes negatively for all Auto manufacturers in Pakistan, Government of Pakistan’s (GoP) recent decision of lifting its ban on CNG kit import as well as the announcement of the new taxi scheme by the Punjab Government,  provide mitigating points particularly for PSMC. With no action seemingly in sight with respect to the new Auto Policy (AIDP-II) and consequent lack of clarity within the sector, we advice investors to remain on the cautious side.

BMA
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 11, 2014, 02:43:54 PM
Subdued Auto Sales performance witnessed in FY14


Pakistan Automobile Association of Pakistan (PAMA) ha recently released automobile sales and production numbers for the month of June-14. In today’s Value Seeker we discuss the sales performance of the said sector coupled with our recommendation for the same.

Auto sales up by 1%YoY, down 0.6%MoM

In the last month of FY14 (Jun-14), sales of automobile remained subdued as uncertainty on the import duty front kept most of the buyers away from buying decision. Similarly, expected introduction of new model of Corolla in current month has reduced the sales of the said variant of Indus Motor.

The total sales of the automobile, including Cars, LCVs and Jeeps, has dropped by minimal 2%MoM to 12,081 units during Jun-14 in contrast to 12,337 units in May-14. During FY14, volumetric growth of auto was remain stagnant and posted a meager uptick of 1%YoY to 136,888 units as compared to 135,507 units in FY13. Car sales alone inched down by 0.6% YoY to 118,102 units whereas sale of LCV & jeeps registered growth of 12.6% YoY to 18,786 units during the period under review.

Most of the auto manufacturing companies introduce their new models including Honda City Aspire, Honda CR-2 and Wagon R by Pak Suzuki during the outgoing year.

Introduction of new Corolla model to steal the show

Indus Motor has all set to introduce its new Corolla model in July end which is expected to boost the company’s sales going forward due to lack of competition in the same segment. Therefore, overall auto sales will take a boost along this new model.

Similarly, a strong PKR against USD and JPY is expected to keep the cost of production lower and hence the prices of cars to remain intact which would further fuel up the auto sales. While economic recovery on the back of ongoing fiscal measures is expected to support auto sales further.

InvestCap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 11, 2014, 05:21:05 PM
Pakistan Car Assemblers: Review / Outlook
Locally made car sales remained flat in FY14
Pakistan local car assemblers’ sales including cars & LCVs (Light Commercial Vehicle) remained at 137K units in FY14 versus 135K units last year. The stagnant volumes can be attributed to higher imported car inventory, in addition to imposition of higher taxes in Federal Budget FY14 i.e. 1% higher GST, 10% FED (Federal Excise Duty) on 1800cc+ cars, higher registration/withholding taxes and relaxation of import duties on hybrid vehicles.
Amongst three local car assemblers, car sales of PSMC (Pak Suzuki) and HCAR (Honda Cars) increased by 2.6% and 11.5% whereas INDU (Indus Motors) showed a decline of 10%. Growth in PSMC sales was mainly triggered by Ravi, Cultus and Bolan which increased by 15.7%, 10.3%, and 8.9%respectively.Meharn and Swift sales declined by 8.9% and 15.9%, respectively. On the other hand, increased ‘City’ sales by 21.8% helped HCAR to post volumetric growth of 11.5%. As for INDU, ‘Corolla’ sales declined by 10.8% to 29,087 units in FY14 mainly because of weak sales trend in last three months as people deferred their buying decision till the availability of new model of Corolla, we believe.
As per our estimates, used car imports may settle at 24K units in FY14, down 37% as compared to 38K units in FY13. This decline can be attributed to higher base effect of FY12 during which 54K units were being imported.
FY15 growth 30% with and 4% without Taxi Scheme
For FY15, we estimate local car sales to increase by 30% to 178K units, provided ‘Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme’ is launched and completed in FY15. In the next 12 months, we foresee PSMC volumes to grow by 40% and INDU by 15%. Strong growth is likely to stem from high PSMC sales as Punjab Govt. has budgeted Rs50bn to subsidize 50K cars under ‘Taxi Scheme’ in FY15. Moreover, declining inventory of imported used cars, economic recovery and expected fall in interest rates will provide support to car sales. Though, net car financing increased by 106% to Rs11.1bn during 10MFY14, there is still a room for further growth. As of April 2014, car financing stands at Rs62bn which is 45% lower than peak of Rs113bn in Dec 2007. Furthermore, ECC (Economic Coordination Committee) has given a sentimental boost to the confidence of investors and customers by lifting the ban on import of CNG (compressed Natural Gas) kits for OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) on July 4, 2014. Corolla’s new model, coupled with removal of 10% FED from ‘Fortuner,’ is expected to serve as major catalyst for the INDU volumetric growth in FY15. In case Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme is delayed and deferred to next year (FY16), overall sales will grow by only 4% to 142K units in FY15 as compared to 137K units in FY14, we believe.
We cover PSMC and INDU in Pakistan’s automobile sector and maintain ‘Hold’ stance on both scrips at current levels. We expect PSMC to post 2014/15 EPS of Rs25.7/Rs28.2 while INDU to post FY15/16 EPS of Rs47.9 and Rs59.4, respectively.

topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 12, 2014, 08:29:45 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/734280/auto-sales-take-a-hit-increase-just-1/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: naumaan on July 12, 2014, 11:29:54 PM
Car buying remain flat

Sales of locally manufactured cars remained flat at 118,102 units in 2013-14, compared to 118,830 units in 2012-13.

Only sales of Honda City, in 1,300cc and above, excelled by 22 per cent to 13,741 units, compared to 11,285 units in 2012-13.

Toyota Corolla sales however, dipped to 29,087 from 32,608 units followed by Honda Civic to 9,933 from 9,950 units; Suzuki Swift to 5,128 from 6,096 units and Suzuki Liana to 161 from 164 units.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) has not officially announced discontinuation of Suzuki Liana but vendors said that the sedan production has already come to a halt. This is evident from its production, 72 units each in October and December 2013.

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (Pama) figures showed that sales of Suzuki Cultus improved by 13pc to 14,682 from 13,308 units in 2012-13. PSMCL’s WagonR production and sales stood at 2,208 and 1,621 units, respectively, during April to June 2013-14.

Hyundai Santro production resumed in January 2014 with 82 units after a long gap but the company ended its production in February 2014 with 128 units. From January to June 2014, production and sales of Santro were registered at 210 and 152 units respectively.

In 800cc vehicles, Suzuki Mehran’s sale plunged by 9pc to 29,509 units, compared to 32,407 units. However, Bolan sales grew by 8.8pc to 14,088 units from 12,941 units.

Analyst Mohammad Tahir Saeed at Top Line Securities, attributed stagnant volumes to higher imported car inventory and imposition of higher taxes.

Weak sales of Toyota Coro­lla in the last three months were registered, as people deferred their buying till the availability of new model.

He estimated 30pc growth in local car sales in 2014-15 to 178,000 units if Punjab government launches Taxi Scheme under which 50,000 cars would be offered on subsidised rates.

Published in Dawn, July 12th, 2014

http://www.dawn.com/news/1118701/car-buying-remain-flat
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Afzal on July 14, 2014, 08:40:42 AM
means PSMC ab buyng radius say bahir hay? ya neechay aaey ga?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:03:20 PM

Auto: FY14 sales volumes increased marginally
 
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released auto numbers for the month of June'14. According to data overall industry volumes (cars + LCVs) increased by 1.2%YoY in FY14 to stand at 136,888 units where on MoM basis, sales volumes declined by 2.1%MoM to 12,081 units in Jun'14. Tractor sales recorded a decline of 35%YoY to clock in at 32,648 units in FY14 and MoM decline of 49% to 1,588 units in Jun'14. FY14 Industry breakup for the car sales showed HCAR on the top with 11.5%YoY growth in volumes versus a decline of 10.0%YoY recorded by INDU (due to phasing out of Corolla model) and 2.6%YoY increase in sales recorded by PSMC. HCAR sold 23,674 units (FY14 Market Share: 17%, +1ppt YoY) in FY14 versus 33,997 units sold by INDU (FY14 Market Share: 25%, -3ppts YoY) and 77,608 units sold by PSMC (FY14 Market Share: 57%, +1ppt YoY). Owing to higher GST woes tractors’ sales in FY14 remained under-pressure as AGTL and MTL managed to sell 11,608 units (down 37%YoY) and 21,040 units (down 34%YoY), respectively. With our overweight stance on the auto sector, we prefer PSMC at current levels with TP of PkR277/share where by the launch of new Corolla 2014 (which is expected in current month) INDU may perform positively in the near-term. That said, we will update our investment case for INDU shortly.

AKD
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:04:34 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: Mellow end to FY14; rebound expected in FY15
Mellow end to FY14
Cumulative volumetric sales for FY14 clocked in at 136,888 units, up a mere 1.2% YoY.  Auto sales were primarily affected by year end dip witnessed in INDU’s corolla variant (29,087 units), down 11% YoY on account of the upcoming new Corolla model launch. PSMC registered total sales of 77,608 units (up 2.6% YoY) primarily driven by Ravi (+16% YoY), and Cultus (+10%) and further supported by its new addition in 1000cc segment; Wagon R, launched in April. HCAR on the other hand posted robust growth in volumes of 11.5% YoY led by its City (+22% YoY) variant.
INDU loses market to PSMC and HCAR
PSMC (57%) and HCAR (17%) both gained market share of 0.8% and 1.6% during FY14 respectively whereas INDU lost a sizable market (28%) of 3.1% during the period. However we believe the trend is expected to reverse in FY15 with the advent of next generation of Corolla model where we expect INDU to recover its lost ground.
Pre-Launch dip in Corolla dents Jun sales
Industry volumes for Jun-14 were down 11.6% mainly on account of stock clearance of Corolla (? 73% YoY) prior to the launch of the new model. Cumulative sales of INDU plummeted 65% YoY during Jun-14. While the other two auto assemblers, PSMC and HCAR witnessed impressive growth of 11% and 16% YoY; propelled by Wagon R (+48% MoM) and City (+40% YoY) variants respectively.
Rebound expected in FY15
Auto volumes are expected to post a comeback in FY15 on the back of new model launch of Corolla by INDU (launch expected post-Ramadan) which is being eagerly awaited by consumers. Furthermore, Punjab taxi scheme, where the government is slated to subsidize 50k units is also expected to stimulate auto volumes in FY15.
Investment case
We currently have a market weight stance on the sector with Dec-14 PT of INDU and PSMC of PKR520/sh and PKR225/sh respectively.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:12:00 PM
Sector Update: Not Much To Cheer About - FY14

The official statistics released by PAMA for the moth of Jun’14 depict a marginal decline in car sales which stood at 10,294 units (?2% M/M). During FY14 car sales were off color showing a dip of 1% Y/Y clocking in at 118,083 units. Chief reasons for depressed volumes were 1) Inventory overhang of used imports, 2) Increase in taxes on vehicle purchase and registration in Budget FY13, 3) Worsening security situation in major metropolis that kept buyers at bay and 4) Lack of attractive car financing schemes.

Sales of LCVs and 4x4s for FY14 came in at 18,786 units which marks an improvement of 14% Y/Y. The increase stemmed from an ascent in sales of pickups (Hilux and Ravi). The tractor industry treaded on a tumultuous path with merely 32,668 units sold in FY14 that shows a decrease of 35% Y/Y. This was primarily on account of increased GST @17% from Jan’14 (which was later reduced to 10% in Budget FY15). 

HMFS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:14:29 PM
HCAR shines in FY14, but in FY15 both PSMC and INDU to lead the Pack

Cumulative FY14 volumes show a growth of 1% YoY with HCAR leading the growth race (11% YoY), due to new model of Honda Civic & introduction of Honda City Aspire.  INDUs sales on the other hand dipped by 10% YoY (QoQ dip of 37% in 4QFY14) due to anticipation of new Corolla model, while PSMCs sales improved by 3%. On a QoQ basis, PSMC & HCAR witnessed an up-tick in volumes during 4QFY14 of 10% & 1%, respectively while INDUs sales contracted by a hefty 37% QoQ.

We eye FY15 sales growth to show a much improved performance with catalyst present in all the three leading auto assemblers. PSMC is expected to be a key beneficiary of Punjab Taxi Scheme. After witnessing subdued sales in last few months, uptick in INDUs volumes is imminent as the new Corolla model rolls out gradually with Altis in this month and other variants, later in the quarter. HCAR is also expected to introduce the new model of City in 2HFY15.

In terms of volumes, we are of the view that PSMC (subject to attainment of Taxi scheme) and INDU will see the biggest rise in FY15, while margins of all players should improve as PKR appreciation impact fully impacts the accounts from 1QFY15.

Tractor sales ended FY14 with 34% decline due to hike in GST rate from January-14. Tractor sales dipped MoM by 45% in June14, after a surprise announcement in budget of again reducing the GST rate to 10% on account of sagging sales. Going forward, FY15 is expected to see improved volumetric performance on this front.   

taurus
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:17:45 PM
Lower INDU to U/P while cab scheme key for PSMC 


Recent stock price rallies of INDU and PSMC (20% and 21% in last 1-M respectively) reflects improved FY15 sales outlook due to launch of (1) new Corolla model and (2) Cab scheme in Punjab,  vs flattish YoY growth in FY14.


We are downgrading INDU by one notch to Underperform where we believe (1) the stock has more than priced in positives from FY15 budget and new Corolla launch in Aug-14 and (2) valuations are expensive, with stock trading at FY15E P/E of 10.1x; a steep premium of 26% to market and 73% to 5yr historical P/E.

We will revise our earnings for PSMC once timing of the 50k LCVs-based cab scheme becomes clear. A 25k Bolan/25k Ravi distribution, in case of start of scheme in CY15 should boost the year’s earnings by PRs15.6/sh and justifies further re-rating of the stock in our view.

Recent slowdown in sales (-3.7% MoM/-17% YoY in Jun-14) should be a temporary dip in our view, given (1) short term demand attrition expected due to advance tax hike and (2) phase-out of old Corolla model (only 970 units sold in Jun-14) as buyers wait for the new model.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:22:14 PM
Pakistan Automotive Manufactures Association (PAMA) recently released data showing total volumetric sales by the auto assemblers of Pakistan during month of June and FY14. As per the data overall volumetric sales during FY14 remained stagnant. 135,278 cars and LCVs were sold during FY14 against 134,587 units sold in same period last year (SPLY) showing nominal growth of 0.5% YoY.

On QoQ basis overall volumetric sales were declined by massive 6% to 36,245 units in 4QFY14 against 38,373 units sold in 3QFY14. The decline was mainly due to drop of INDU sales by massive 37 pretext expected new model to Corolla to be launched soon, wherein PSMC sales grew by 10% QoQ.

While looking at MoM basis overall industry sales were down by 2.1% to 11,913 units in June 14 against 12,170 units sold in previous month. The budgetary month and pre Ramzan slowed the customer’s preference for buying the luxury items like cars

HCAR volumetric sales up by 11% YoY

HCAR reported massive 18.2% MoM growth in volumetric sales in June 14 to 2,672 units against 2,260 units sold in previous month of May 14. On the YoY basis company’s volumetric sales grew by 11% to 23,674 units in FY14 against 21,235 units reported in SPLY.

PSMC volumetric sales up by 3% YoY

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) witnessed 3% growth in car sales on YoY basis to 77,607 units in FY14 against 75,650 units sold in SPLY. Customer’s preference to new comer WagnoR led the increase inWagonR sales while diminishing the sales of PSMC’s key products Cultus and Mehran.

While on the monthly comparison PSMC reported 10% YoY growth in volumetric sales during June 14. During last month of FY14 PSMC sold 7,742 units against 6,993units sold in previous month.

Lower Corrola sales drag INDU’s sales down by 10%:

Indus Motors Company (INDU) reported 10% YoY decline in volumetric sales during FY14 to 33,997 units against 37,702 units sold in SPLY. The awaited new model of Toyata Corrolla was the major reason for decrease in monthly sales by massive 60% in June 14.

Valuation:

Currently PSMC yields lowest expected PE of 10x in the industry which is still attractive to take long position in it. Wherein HCAR and INDU are yielding PE of 12.3xand 14.2x respectively.

We maintain BUY stance for PSMC. And HOLD stance for HCAR.

SCS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Auto sales: Issues during FY14
 1. Sales data of Suzuki WagonR reveals that the car has been welcomed by the market. However, we
await its sales data for next few months and would not discount the ‘novelty factor’ besides sales
of Suzuki WagonR during the initial few months of its launch;
2. Sales of Toyota Corolla dropped by 60pc MoM; we attribute this to launch of new model Toyota
Corolla in 1QFY15 plus introduction of new model INDU cars in 800cc and 1000cc segments;
arkets (Pvt) Ltd
3. Budget 2015: Decision to reduce sales tax on tractors from 16pc to 10pc; upward revision in
import duty of used cars by 10pc and withdrawal of FED @ 10pc on vehicles exceeding 1800cc is
bound to augur well for MTL, PSMC and INDU scrips going forward;
d.
4. Decision of Punjab govt. to launch a taxi scheme (allocation of PKR25bn) should augur favorably
for sales of Mehran & Bolan in FY15;
5. Decision of ECC of Cabinet to lift ban on CNG kit import may augur favorably for sales of PSMC;
6. Going forward, AIDP?II hold the key to future direction/growth of the domestic auto sector;

AHCML
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 15, 2014, 03:51:58 PM
Event

According to latest data released by Pakistan Auto Manufacturers Association (PAMA), auto sales showed 10% MoM decline, standing at 14,265 units in Jun-14. Auto sector performance remained sluggish in FY14 with 7.7% YoY decline in sales. This performance is mainly on account of (1) lower Corolla sales in anticipation of new model launch and (2) lower tractor sales on account of favorable budgetary measures effective from 1 July 2014. We believe sales are likely to rejuvenate in FY15 driven by new models launch by Indus (Corolla) coupled with changes in taxation measures. INDU remains our preferred pick.

Impact

Auto sales declined by 10% MoM: Auto sales recorded a decline of 10% MoM to 14,265 units compared to 15,866 units registered in the last month,  translating into FY14 cumulative sales of 173,777 units (-7.7% YoY).

Passenger car segment – During Jun-14, auto assemblers witnessed 11% YoY decrease in passenger car sales to 9,092 units taking FY14 sales to 104,014 units (-1.8% YoY). Within the passenger cars segment, the 1300+cc category sales plunged by 35% YoY in Jun-14. The decline is mainly attributed to Corolla sales (-73% YoY) in anticipation of new model launch tentatively in Jul’14. In the 1000cc and 800cc segment, sales augmented by 29% MoM and 25% MoM respectively. Overall in FY14, 1300cc, 1000cc and 800cc recorded sales growth of -3%, +24% and -9% YoY respectively.l2

FS Research
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 18, 2014, 02:11:50 PM
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA) has released the FY14 production and sales data of auto industry where sales remain stable. Auto sales include Car, LCV & Pickup sales surge by 1.2% to 136,888 units during FY14 versus 135,310 units in FY13. Better performance was due to low base of Honda cars, higher farmer income and lower imports owing to downward revision in age limit of imported cars. The production of automobiles remain weak as it lower by 1% with 134,975 units were produced during FY14 as against 136,324 units produced in FY13. Stable performance of auto sales mainly driven by higher sale of 1,000cc cars as sales surge by 24% YoY to 16,455 units resultantly market share increased from 9.8% in FY13 to 12% in FY14 owing to introduction of Suzuki Alto Wagon R. However, 1300cc and above category decline by 3.4% YoY to 58,050 units in FY14 against 60,103 units in FY13 mainly due to lower sales of Corolla by 11% in FY14 due to launching of new model in July. On the other hand Honda City performed well as it sale increased by 22% to 13,741 units in FY14 owing to better demand. Similarly, 800cc and below market share dipped slightly to 31.8% in FY14 compared to 33.6% in FY13.

June ignore pre budget buying volumes

While it was expected that June sales would be higher on expectation of higher advance tax but consumer remain reluctant while launching of new Toyota model in July also restricts June volume.  Auto sales dips in the month of June as cumulative Car, LCV & Pickup sales down by 12% YoY to 12,081 units against 13,674 units sold in June 2013. Similarly, cumulative production of Car, LCV & Pickup decline by 12% to 11,229 units against 14,430 units in June 2013.

Azee
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 13, 2014, 08:57:31 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/747790/slowing-down-car-sales-hit-speed-bump-in-july-may-pick-up-later/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on August 13, 2014, 12:41:12 PM
Auto sales dip 43% MoM to 6,984units (PAMA, Analyst Comment)
As per latest auto sales data released by PAMA, industry sales are down by 43% MoM/34% YoY
to 6,948 units. Breakup shows 45%/26%/44% decline in PSMC/INDUS/HCAR sales, where the
dip in demand is primarily attributed to hike in advance tax at registration level in Federal
budget, which has to be paid in addition to selling price of car. This demand attrition is
expected to be short?lived though, till buyers adjust to the higher cost. In addition, the month
of Ramadan also had an impact on sluggish sales.

kasb
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 13, 2014, 03:36:31 PM
Automobile sales declined in holy month| 42% MoM decline
As per latest data revealed by Pakistan Automotive Manufactures Association (PAMA) total volumetric sales of locally assembled vehicles have declined in month of July 14. During July 14 overall 6,928 units were sold against 11,913 units sold in Jun 14 showing 42% MoM decline. Where in on YoY basis sales were declined by 34.4% to 6,928 units in 1MFY15 against 10,553 units sold in 1MFY14.
This massive decrease in automobile sales was mainly due to month of Ramadhan as people were busy in fasting and shopping for Eid and were less interested to go for luxury goods including cars. Another main reason for decrease in high end cars was long waited new model of Toyata Corolla which has been launched in August 14. We see good sales numbers in coming days.
 
PSMC volumetric sales down by 44% MoM
Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) witnessed 44.2% MoM decline in car sales to 4,317 units in Jul 14 against 7,742 units sold in Jun 14. On the YoY basis PSMC witnessed 24% decline in volumetric sales against 5,697 units sold in July 13.
 
HCAR volumetric sales down 43.7% MoM
HCAR reported massive 43.7% MoM decline in volumetric sales in July 14 to 1,505 units against 2,672 units sold in previous month of June 14. On the YoY basis company's volumetric sales was diminished by 23% to 1,505 units in 1MFY15 against 1,962 units sold in SPLY.
INDU's sales down by 26.2% MoM:
As per the latest data for the month of July 14, INDU's volumetric sales have declined by 26.2% MoM and 62% YoY. During July 14 sales stood at 1,106 units against 1,499 units in Jun 14 and 2,894 units sold in July 13.
 
Tractors sale rebounded
Tractors sales rebounded in month of July 14 and showed 59% MoM and 113%YoY growth. 2,767 is the total number of tractors sold during July 14 against 1,742 units sold in June 14 and 1,302 units sold in July 13. Both Al Ghazi and Millat tractors benefited due to incremental sales by 73.7% each.
Future Outlook
We expect good turnaround in auto sector in upcoming days. Swelling gross margin and demand oriented automobile market will keeps auto players' profitability cheering
We expect INDU to enjoy good volumetric sales in upcoming months as company has recently launched new Model of Toyota Atlas Grand and some other variants of Corolla GLI is in pipeline and will soon be launched with price range within Rs 1.5 to 1.7mn.
PSMC to be benefited from yellow cab scheme and will supply 50,000 vehicles to Punjab government in this fiscal year. Also we see a good demand from rural side as agriculture sector is growing and witnessed good crops during the season.
There is some news regarding HCAR that it is coming up with some new variant named Honda Mobilio. Honda Mobilio is seven seater multi-purpose vehicle and it has been already launched in India and now planning to step into Pakistani Market.
As per the latest financial result HCAR's gross margin is swelling and has reached to 12.7% which is a good omen.

SCS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 13, 2014, 07:27:30 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: Volumes plummet 34% at the start of FY15
Volumes plummet 34% YoY at the start of FY15
Cumulative volumes for autos in Jul-14 clocked in at 6,948 units, down by a massive 34% YoY. Almost all variants of the three auto assemblers witnessed negative volumetric growth during the month.
1300cc category registered colossal decline of 49% YoY
The 1300cc category, which primarily consists of INDU’s Corolla and HCAR’s City and Civic variants, posted decline of 49% YoY, largely on the back of plunge in Corolla sales (?72% YoY). Sales for HCAR’s Civic (?21%) and City (?25%) also remained weak for the period.
PSMC also remained laggard
Sales of PSMC, which primarily operates in less than 1300cc category, also contracted by 24% YoY primarily on account of dip in Mehran (?36%) and Cultus (?34%) variants.
Falling imports fail to foster demand
Imports of used cars fell by a massive 51% to 22,220 units in FY14. Despite this major decrease, demand for locally assembled vehicles has remained tepid during FY14 increasing by a mere 1.2% YoY to 136,888 units.
Investment case
PSMC remains our top pick in the sector with Jun-15 PT of PKR290/sh offering a total return of 16%.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on September 04, 2014, 09:42:21 AM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on September 04, 2014, 10:51:11 AM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
inhouse shareholding
Directors, Chief Executive Officers, 65.10%
and their spouse and minor children
last year 150% Right issue at 50% discount
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sumbul on September 04, 2014, 10:54:15 AM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
inhouse shareholding
Directors, Chief Executive Officers, 65.10%
and their spouse and minor children
last year 150% Right issue at 50% discount

target and timeline? any inside news or funda?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on September 04, 2014, 11:47:46 AM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
inhouse shareholding
Directors, Chief Executive Officers, 65.10%
and their spouse and minor children
last year 150% Right issue at 50% discount
looking for 4.90-5.20 before year end announcement
% wise, it will b good ROI but in kachra some risk always involved,
also check yesterday turnover
http://www.ghaniautomobiles.com/Financials/GAIL3rdQuarter2014.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on September 04, 2014, 10:25:31 PM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
inhouse shareholding
Directors, Chief Executive Officers, 65.10%
and their spouse and minor children
last year 150% Right issue at 50% discount
looking for 4.90-5.20 before year end announcement
% wise, it will b good ROI but in kachra some risk always involved,
also check yesterday turnover
http://www.ghaniautomobiles.com/Financials/GAIL3rdQuarter2014.pdf
iss news ka minimum kitna impact hoo sakta haay on mkt price?
http://kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?0.5705921738408506&id=4&nid=056939
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 12, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
AKD Daily
 

Pakistan Autos: Aug’14 Sales Update
As per the latest figures released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Pakistan's auto industry sales increased by 76.4%MoM to 12.3k units in Aug'14 against 6.9k units sold in Jul'14. Major contribution in this hefty increase came from INDU where the company sold 4.1k (+268%MoM) units followed by 6.5k (+50.8%MoM) units sales of PSMC and 1.6k (+8.6%MoM) units sales of HCAR. Tractors' sale were recorded at 2.9k units, up by 7.4%MoM with MTL selling 1.9k units (+13%MoM) and 1.0k units were sold by AGTL (-3%MoM).
Industry sales breakdown is as follows:
PSMC: The company recorded sales volumes of 6,510 units in Aug’14, up by 51%MoM/9%YoY. All the variants excluding Wagon R (down by 5%MoM) recorded substantial sales growth specifically Ravi (1,114 units, +89%MoM), Mehran (2,330 units, +58%MoM) and Cultus (1,257 units, +56%MoM). At current levels, PSMC provides 9% upside to our target price of PkR311/share. However, news reports point to a delay in the Punjab Taxi Scheme (Apna Rozgar Scheme). Note that our ex-taxi scheme TP for PSMC is PkR284/share.

INDU: With the launch of new model of Corolla, the company recorded sales volumes of 4,065 units up by 268%MoM/39%YoY. Sales volumes of Corolla recorded in Aug'14 were 3,515 units up by 34%YoY where the company also managed to sustain sales volumes of Fortuner (75 units) and Hilux (475 units, up by 31%MoM/90%YoY).

HCAR: Honda recorded sales volumes of 1,634 units up by 8.6%MoM but down by 23%YoY. The company sold 587 units of Civic (-7%MoM/-39%YoY) and 1,047 units of City (+20%MoM/-11%YoY). In our view, the YoY decline in sales can be attributed to the launch of the new Corolla in major competition.

Tractors: Industry sales recorded a growth of 53%YoY to post volumes of 2,973 units. Sales of MTL and AGTL in Aug'14 were 1,927 units (+36%YoY) and 1,024 units (+98%YoY), respectively.

Investment Perspective: FY15 has gotten off on the wrong foot for Pakistan's auto sector sales as 2MFY15 figures are down 11.4%YoY mainly due to Toyota phasing out its previous Corolla model. That said, marked improvement was seen in Aug'14. The sector's sales are still far from dry land however as the impact of floods still looms large. Floods in Pakistan over the course of past 4 years have proven to bring with themselves tough times for local Auto manufacturers. Amongst many reasons diminishing farmer income can be classified as the major factor behind this volumetric slippage as farmers represent a strong group of customers. Diving through history, our analysis reveals that in the last 4 years local auto sales diminish by average ~6%QoQ in the Jul-Sep quarter while average sales during the remaining 9M period rise by 8% against the starting 3M sales. This time around, average auto sales have been recorded 9.6k units in 2MFY15, which are on the lower side when compared to average to 11.8k units sold to the same period during the previous four years. With all this yet to be priced in, we believe the current floods will bring some level of negativity within the auto sector space and will provide investors with an opportunity to build-up fresh positions at dips.



Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on September 25, 2014, 10:15:02 AM
http://e.dunya.com.pk/detail.php?date=2014-09-25&edition=LHR&id=1303700_71286831
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nasirkhan88 on October 02, 2014, 10:28:36 AM
http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1102454603&Issue=NP_ISB&Date=20141002 (http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1102454603&Issue=NP_ISB&Date=20141002)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 05, 2014, 05:58:05 PM
Govt considering to allow the import of used car. Be cautious to trade in automobile shares
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nasirkhan88 on October 05, 2014, 06:19:41 PM
Nadeem bhai source of this news kitna reliable hai?? :skeptic:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 05, 2014, 06:36:52 PM
Confirm he nasir sahib FBR ne  proposal de he govt ko see today jang news paper
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nasirkhan88 on October 05, 2014, 06:39:14 PM
Thank Yoiuuuu sooooo mUchhh. dera drra manana :)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 05, 2014, 07:05:07 PM
U read this news
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nasirkhan88 on October 05, 2014, 07:15:04 PM
still searching
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 08, 2014, 01:13:20 PM
See back page of daily jang DT 05-10-14
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nasirkhan88 on October 08, 2014, 01:50:45 PM
ok boss
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: small bbs on October 09, 2014, 12:31:00 AM
See back page of daily jang DT 05-10-14

Anyone can give money to publish these kind of news.
Just to avoid the GP not to buying in auto sector
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 11, 2014, 06:36:05 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/773566/concern-car-makers-fear-new-auto-policy-could-open-up-imports/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on October 13, 2014, 07:02:18 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/1232124:draft-auto-development-policy-2014-tariff-structure-for-auto-sector-revised/?date=2014-10-13
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 13, 2014, 07:17:55 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/1232124:draft-auto-development-policy-2014-tariff-structure-for-auto-sector-revised/?date=2014-10-13

Thanks SBM br for posting this. Looks positive for auto sector. LLLLLLLLLLLaaaaaaaaaaaoooooooooooo mall at any rate.  ::)
DFML @15
GAIL @ 10
HCAR @ 200
PSMC @ 400
IN SHORT TERM INSHALLAH
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 13, 2014, 06:53:50 PM
Pakistan Alert: (Oct-13-2014)
Pakistan Car Assemblers: September car sales up 14% YoY

Pakistan car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) during Sep 2014 stood at 12,693 units, up 4% compared to Aug 2014 sales of 12,258 units and up 14% compared to Sep 2013 sales of 11,166 units. However, during 1QFY15, sales are down 3% to 31,899 units compared to 32,841 units in the same period last year, mainly because of significantly low volumes in July 2014. Sales volumes were abnormally low in July 2014, on account of early buying witnessed in June 2014 due to increase in advance motor vehicle tax and imposition of advance income tax on transfer of motor vehicle in Federal Budget FY15. Less trading activity due to Ramadan also hurt July 2014 volumes.
Surge in Sep sales was expected after the launch of new model of ‘Corolla’ by Indus Motors (INDU). The improvement in Sep 2014 sales was expected and brings no change in our base case assumptions.
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC): Sales down by 1% YoY
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales declined to 6,204 units in Sep 2014, down 1%YoY and down 5%MoM. During 1QFY15, sales of PSMC declined by 5%YoY to 17,031 units compared to 17,966 units in 1QFY14.
Company witnessed decline of 27%MoM in Cultus to 917 units versus 1,257 units in Aug 2014. Wagon-R unit sales declined by 87 units to 258 units in Sep 2014. However, Mehran unit sales increased by 5% to 2,436 units in Sep 2014 versus 2,330 units in Aug 2014.
Indus Motors (INDU): Sales increased by 80% YoY
INDU sold 4,691 units in Sep 2014, up 80% compared to 2,602 units in the same month last year. On month-on-month basis, INDU posted increase of 15% from 4,065 units in Aug 2014. On quarterly basis, sales increased by 17% during 1QFY15.
Major increase is witnessed in INDU’s flagship ‘Corolla’ which sold 4,358 units in Sep 2014 from 3,515 units in previous month while Hilux sales witnessed a decline of 42% to 277 units compared to 475 units in Aug 2014.

Topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 13, 2014, 07:48:13 PM
New draft policy augers much better for auto sector

According to news reports, government has revised tariff structure for the auto sector in the latest draft (Sept-2014) of the Auto Development Policy 2014, providing a 5-year regulatory framework for the sector.

Vis-à-vis the previous policy draft (Mar-2014), we believe the Sept-2014 policy draft augurs much better for the auto sector.

(1) Import duty on Completely Knock Down (CKD) units has been cut to 25% (vs. 30% in Mar-2014 draft & prevailing duty of 32.5%) while (2) duties on Completely Built Units (CBUs) have been kept unchanged (vs. 5-15% proposed reduction in duties in Mar-2014 policy draft). However effectively duties on CBUs have been increased in some instances due to changes in slabs.

Our back of the envelope working suggests, 7.5% cut in CKD duty can have an annualized earnings impact of 13-18% on our JS Auto universe, given no benefit is passed on to the consumers.

If prices are reduced to pass on the benefits to the consumers, we believe it will have a positive impact on demand for locally auto-assembled vehicles. Our back of the envelope working suggests, 5% increase in unit sales can have an earnings impact of 4-6% on our JS Auto universe.

However, given the recent run up in auto stock prices to the announcement of the auto policy, sector’s valuations appear highly stretched. Our preferred play remains Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) in the auto sector.

New policy draft augers better than the previous draft

According to news reports, government has revised tariff structure for the auto sector in the latest draft (Sept-2014) of the Auto Development Policy 2014. The Sept-2014 policy draft is expected to be presented to the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet in the coming weeks for approval. We view the policy favorably for the sector as it provides a 5-year regulatory framework for the sector with reduced duties.

JS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 13, 2014, 07:49:06 PM
New auto policy to speed up sector’s profitability

The new five year Auto Policy is expected to be discussed in the upcoming ECC meeting. Revision in the import duty on CKD and incentives for new entrants will be key considerations of the new policy. In today’s Value Seeker, we elaborate the possible impact of the said decision on local car assemblers’ profitability coupled with our recommendation on the scrips.

Decline in import duty to accelerate margins

One of the major developments belong to the upcoming Auto Investment Development Policy is the reduction in import duty on CKD. As all assemblers import CKD from their parent companies therefore reduction in import duty will be highly beneficial for the local assemblers. According to Auto Policy draft, the government is anticipated to reduce the import duty to 25% for five years from existing 32.5% on CKD. Our initial estimates suggests that HCAR (2015) would be the major beneficiary as its EPS will grow by 28% followed by INDU (FY15) and PSMC (CY14) with growth of 24% and 20% respectively.

However, import policy of used vehicles almost same as existing policy some major components of proposed import policy are as follow:

(i) No used vehicles older than three years will allow;

(ii) Imports will allow only in personal baggage scheme, transfer of residence scheme and gifts scheme

(iii) 1% depreciation per month will be allowed to a maximum of 36%

(iv) Duty for imported vehicles will be paid in dollars through banks.

Outlook

We are waiting for the final approval of the policy draft to incorporate in our financial models. However, on the basis of initial estimates, INDU and HCAR is trading at FY15 and 2015 PE multiple of 10.2x and 10.9x respectively while PSMC is trading at 8.0x at CY14 EPS.

InvestCap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on October 13, 2014, 09:01:10 PM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
inhouse shareholding
Directors, Chief Executive Officers, 65.10%
and their spouse and minor children
last year 150% Right issue at 50% discount
short term game probably ended today :skeptic:
hope,
some of u loved it
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 13, 2014, 09:13:46 PM
Till when can we trade the right shares of GAIL?
gail 4.30 taak buy lagta haay
inhouse shareholding
Directors, Chief Executive Officers, 65.10%
and their spouse and minor children
last year 150% Right issue at 50% discount
short term game probably ended today :skeptic:
hope,
some of u loved it

u r right slammember bhai, Today I also sold my GAIL holding, due to issue of right share, big players offload in this run, thora sakoon shaid karay, auto policy approved ho gai to phir bhagay  ga.........let's see to morrow what BBs behave in GAIL, and DFML
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: online88 on October 13, 2014, 09:29:48 PM
Dear brother slam what about GHNL
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on October 13, 2014, 09:57:45 PM
Dear brother slam what about GHNL
bro,
no idea about ghnl ,sorry
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 13, 2014, 11:45:13 PM
Dear brother slam what about GHNL
bro,
no idea about ghnl ,sorry

long term kay liye acha hay INSHALLAH
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on October 14, 2014, 07:32:49 AM
WHAT ABOUT GAIL ? I AM HOLDING AT 7.24 .... WAS IT BAD MOVE ? SENIORS PLEASE ADVICE  :console: :dunno:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sundeepparwani on October 14, 2014, 10:23:24 AM
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=0768c36eb1&view=snatt&th=1490acf0de1b5451&attid=0.1&disp=thd&zw&stw=800
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on October 14, 2014, 11:39:43 AM
Dear Senior. i think to buy GAIL at This level/ plz guied
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 14, 2014, 06:05:14 PM
Ofcource
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 14, 2014, 06:30:28 PM
Automobile sales data | INDU & GHNI stands out,   PSMC down
Yesterday Pakistan Automotive Manufactures Association (PAMA) revealed automobile sales data for the month of September 14.
Monthly comparison
On MoM basis overall volumetric sales of Cars and LCVs has increase by 3.6%, where INDU being the major contributor with 15.4% MoM growth followed by HCAR with 7% MoM volumetric sales growth. PSMC has observed decline in volumetric sales in Sep 14 by 4.7%.
Buses and trucks segment has surprised the market with fabulous volumetric sales in Sep 14. Overall sales of busses and trucks have been increased by 64% MoM, where GHNI is the major contributor with three time month on month growth in volumetric sales.
Tractor segment is also enjoying the swing with 22% MoM growth. MTL has once again come on the track with 27.5% MoM growth and AGTL sales was increased by 7.8% MoM.
Yearly Comparison| 1QFY15 against 1QFY14
On the yearly comparison basis the scenario is somehow similar. Extraordinary demand of newly launched Toyata Corolla is benefiting INDU in this quarter and sales have been increased by 17.1% YoY. Whereas HCAR and PSMC sales has been decreased by 22.5% and 5.2% YoY respectively.
Tractors volumetric sales are also increased by 85.1% YoY so as AGTL and MTL has shown YoY Growth.
Six wheelers segment is in full swing showing 64% YoY growth. In this segment GHNI and GHNL has shown fabulous growth in volumetric sales on YoY basis.
Eyes on Automobile policy...High hopes
As per the recent news member from Auto assemblers met with government officials and presented a draft policy regarding automobile sector. The key notes of this policy were to
·         lower down the duty on CKD by noticeable rate and
·         also relaxation in imports of other raw material
We expect that government will come up with a middle way to gain confidence of business community by providing certain relaxation in the import duty.

SCS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 14, 2014, 06:31:36 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: 1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU

1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU
Sizable volumetric growth in INDU’s Corolla variant (+106%) propelled industry’s volumes by 14% YoY to 12,693 units in September as growth of 33% in 1300cc category fully accrued to Corolla variant. However 1QFY15 volumes were still down 3% despite stellar growth of 17% YoY witnessed in INDU. Growth in volumes was primarily held back by significant decline in HCAR’s sales (-22%) YoY.
Corolla variant propel INDU’s sales
Volumes for INDU were up by a massive 80% YoY in September, clocking in at 4,691 units on the back of 106% increase in Corolla sales. INDU’s main competitor HCAR on the other hand witnessed a decline of 21% YoY to 1,748 units with both its variants Civic and City variant declining by 34% and 10% respectively as the new variants of Corolla dominated the 1300cc+ category.
PSMC’s volumes remain flat; Taxi scheme slightly delayed
PSMC’s total volumes clocked in at 6,204 units for the month, relatively flat (-1% YoY).Volumes of all its variants remained depressed barring Ravi which witnessed a sizable 21% growth. Punjab Taxi scheme which was scheduled to commence from October onwards has been slightly delayed as the company has not yet received any orders from the provincial government. The company expects a revised timeline to be announced in next couple of weeks.
AIDP II on the offing; downward duty revision expected
As per recent news reports, the much delayed AIDP draft has been finalized by the respective ministry and is ready for the consideration of ECC for the final approval. News-flow also suggests that duties on localized and non-localized parts are expected to be revised down to 45% from 50% and 25% from 32.5% respectively.
Investment case
At current levels, we have a Hold call on PSMC with Jun-15 PT of PKR290/sh offering a total downside of 9%, while we maintain our SELL stance on INDU which is currently trading at an expensive FY15 PER of 11.8.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 14, 2014, 07:13:13 PM
Latest data by PAMA indicates stellar increase in Corolla sales (2.1x YoY increase) taking auto industry sales up 14% YoY in Sep-14. On MoM basis, auto sales increased nominally by 3%.

The decline in HCAR and PSMC sales by 22% YoY and 5% YoY in 1QFY15 point to underlying sluggish demand for autos due to recent advance tax hike and heavy rains in monsoon season. We expect sales to rebound in 2HFY15.

Highlight of the month is the sharp Yen/USD weakness (5.5% in Sep-14 & 7.5% in 1QFY15). Our back of the envelope calculation suggests 5% weakness in Yen to have positive earnings impact on Indus/PSMC by 8%/30% in case of no pass-on, but 4.2% PKR/USD depreciation will likely clip the gain in 1QFY15 by more than half.

In addition, latest media reports on long-pending AIDP-II suggest favorable treatment in CKD duty reduction and unchanged CBU duties, although its approval is likely to be long drawn out, in our view.

While our estimates are under review, we have relative liking for PSMC based on (1) key attraction of taxi scheme being launched, giving upside of 50k units LCV sales and (2) sharper earnings impact from Yen weakness.

KASB
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 14, 2014, 07:14:29 PM
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA) has recently released auto production and sales figures for Sep’14. In today’s Value Seeker, we present an analysis of the auto sales performance during the said month and 1QFY15 along with our outlook for the same.

Auto sales descend by 2.9%YoY in 1Q

According to PAMA figures, total car, LCV & pickup sales remained lackluster posting a negative growth of 2.9%YoY to 31,899 units in 1QFY15 as compared to 32,841 units in the same period last year. In cars segment, sales dropped by 3.2%YoY to 27,630units as compared to 28,539units in 1Q last year. Similarly, LCV & Pickup segment sales have gone down by meager 0.8%YoY to 4,269 units. Despite floods in most part of the country, the popularity of new corolla model clutched car sales from major fall.

On Monthly basis, the total sales of auto sector registered an upsurge of 3.6%, whereas the sales of car increased by 5.8%MoM while the LCVs’ sale fell down by 10.2%MoM.

INDU steals the show on success of new model

INDU was the only beneficiary which improved its market share among its peers. Market share of the company has improved by 530bps YoY to 30.9% in 1QFY15 as compared to 25.6% during the same period last year. The market share of INDU grew on the back of overwhelming public response to its new corolla model.  HCAR’s market share witnessed a drop of 390bps to 15.3% during the period under review. Furthermore, PSMC lost its market share by 130bps YoY to 53.4% in 1QFY15.

Outlook: New auto policy to incentivize the auto sector

The outlook of the sector is positive on account of i) favorable upcoming auto policy ii) popularity of new models introduced by INDU, PSMC and HCAR which is expected to keep the sales volume higher and iii) the stable PKR against USD which will reduce the import cost and thus impetus for the healthier margins.

 incestcap
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on October 14, 2014, 08:03:25 PM
Pocket is full of Dewan motor and gail , shuold run 1000 mile per hour
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: small bbs on October 15, 2014, 12:29:25 AM
Asim Br, I am stuck in GAIL.  What should I do hold or sell
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DEVDAS on October 15, 2014, 12:55:16 AM

The Bell
 
Autos: 1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU

1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU
Sizable volumetric growth in INDU’s Corolla variant (+106%) propelled industry’s volumes by 14% YoY to 12,693 units in September as growth of 33% in 1300cc category fully accrued to Corolla variant. However 1QFY15 volumes were still down 3% despite stellar growth of 17% YoY witnessed in INDU. Growth in volumes was primarily held back by significant decline in HCAR’s sales (-22%) YoY.
Corolla variant propel INDU’s sales
Volumes for INDU were up by a massive 80% YoY in September, clocking in at 4,691 units on the back of 106% increase in Corolla sales. INDU’s main competitor HCAR on the other hand witnessed a decline of 21% YoY to 1,748 units with both its variants Civic and City variant declining by 34% and 10% respectively as the new variants of Corolla dominated the 1300cc+ category.
PSMC’s volumes remain flat; Taxi scheme slightly delayed
PSMC’s total volumes clocked in at 6,204 units for the month, relatively flat (-1% YoY).Volumes of all its variants remained depressed barring Ravi which witnessed a sizable 21% growth. Punjab Taxi scheme which was scheduled to commence from October onwards has been slightly delayed as the company has not yet received any orders from the provincial government. The company expects a revised timeline to be announced in next couple of weeks.
AIDP II on the offing; downward duty revision expected
As per recent news reports, the much delayed AIDP draft has been finalized by the respective ministry and is ready for the consideration of ECC for the final approval. News-flow also suggests that duties on localized and non-localized parts are expected to be revised down to 45% from 50% and 25% from 32.5% respectively.
Investment case
At current levels, we have a Hold call on PSMC with Jun-15 PT of PKR290/sh offering a total downside of 9%, while we maintain our SELL stance on INDU which is currently trading at an expensive FY15 PER of 11.8.

elixir
Huge buying witnessed n last two days & they hv maintained SELL stance. Trappers
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sumbul on October 15, 2014, 09:59:25 AM
More good news in store for Auto Lovers  :thumbsup_anim:

USD/JPY wave iv ended at 106.76. Look for a rally to 111.25
 
With an almost perfect test of the 38.2% corrective target of wave iii at 106.81 and the bottom of blue wave iv of one lessor degree, the odds for wave iv being over are very higher and I will now be looking for a break above 107.50 to confirm the bottom of wave iv for a rally to at least 111.25 in wave v and possibly even higher to 112.31.

Short term only a break below 106.76 will delay the expected upside rally in wave v.

 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DEVDAS on October 15, 2014, 10:52:34 AM

The Bell
 
Autos: 1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU

1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU
Sizable volumetric growth in INDU’s Corolla variant (+106%) propelled industry’s volumes by 14% YoY to 12,693 units in September as growth of 33% in 1300cc category fully accrued to Corolla variant. However 1QFY15 volumes were still down 3% despite stellar growth of 17% YoY witnessed in INDU. Growth in volumes was primarily held back by significant decline in HCAR’s sales (-22%) YoY.
Corolla variant propel INDU’s sales
Volumes for INDU were up by a massive 80% YoY in September, clocking in at 4,691 units on the back of 106% increase in Corolla sales. INDU’s main competitor HCAR on the other hand witnessed a decline of 21% YoY to 1,748 units with both its variants Civic and City variant declining by 34% and 10% respectively as the new variants of Corolla dominated the 1300cc+ category.
PSMC’s volumes remain flat; Taxi scheme slightly delayed
PSMC’s total volumes clocked in at 6,204 units for the month, relatively flat (-1% YoY).Volumes of all its variants remained depressed barring Ravi which witnessed a sizable 21% growth. Punjab Taxi scheme which was scheduled to commence from October onwards has been slightly delayed as the company has not yet received any orders from the provincial government. The company expects a revised timeline to be announced in next couple of weeks.
AIDP II on the offing; downward duty revision expected
As per recent news reports, the much delayed AIDP draft has been finalized by the respective ministry and is ready for the consideration of ECC for the final approval. News-flow also suggests that duties on localized and non-localized parts are expected to be revised down to 45% from 50% and 25% from 32.5% respectively.
Investment case
At current levels, we have a Hold call on PSMC with Jun-15 PT of PKR290/sh offering a total downside of 9%, while we maintain our SELL stance on INDU which is currently trading at an expensive FY15 PER of 11.8.

elixir
Huge buying witnessed n INDUS n last two days & they hv maintained SELL stance. Trappers
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: jamalakhter on October 15, 2014, 12:09:01 PM
Pocket is full of Dewan motor and gail , shuold run 1000 mile per hour

               Main cause of fatal acccident  is fast speed
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: JF on October 15, 2014, 03:13:22 PM
Jab tak DFML k tyre mai HAWA hai tab tak  :dance with GAIL otherwise huhu

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DEVDAS on October 15, 2014, 03:37:13 PM

The Bell
 
Autos: 1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU

1QFY15 volumes down 3% despite stellar growth in INDU
Sizable volumetric growth in INDU’s Corolla variant (+106%) propelled industry’s volumes by 14% YoY to 12,693 units in September as growth of 33% in 1300cc category fully accrued to Corolla variant. However 1QFY15 volumes were still down 3% despite stellar growth of 17% YoY witnessed in INDU. Growth in volumes was primarily held back by significant decline in HCAR’s sales (-22%) YoY.
Corolla variant propel INDU’s sales
Volumes for INDU were up by a massive 80% YoY in September, clocking in at 4,691 units on the back of 106% increase in Corolla sales. INDU’s main competitor HCAR on the other hand witnessed a decline of 21% YoY to 1,748 units with both its variants Civic and City variant declining by 34% and 10% respectively as the new variants of Corolla dominated the 1300cc+ category.
PSMC’s volumes remain flat; Taxi scheme slightly delayed
PSMC’s total volumes clocked in at 6,204 units for the month, relatively flat (-1% YoY).Volumes of all its variants remained depressed barring Ravi which witnessed a sizable 21% growth. Punjab Taxi scheme which was scheduled to commence from October onwards has been slightly delayed as the company has not yet received any orders from the provincial government. The company expects a revised timeline to be announced in next couple of weeks.
AIDP II on the offing; downward duty revision expected
As per recent news reports, the much delayed AIDP draft has been finalized by the respective ministry and is ready for the consideration of ECC for the final approval. News-flow also suggests that duties on localized and non-localized parts are expected to be revised down to 45% from 50% and 25% from 32.5% respectively.
Investment case
At current levels, we have a Hold call on PSMC with Jun-15 PT of PKR290/sh offering a total downside of 9%, while we maintain our SELL stance on INDU which is currently trading at an expensive FY15 PER of 11.8.

elixir
Huge buying witnessed n INDUS n last two days & they hv maintained SELL stance. Trappers
SELL INDUS...haha what a stance by ELIXIR. Today 4% above last closing
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: JF on October 15, 2014, 03:47:05 PM
Current trend SATTA MENTAL  :rtfm: not FUNDAMENTAL MARKET
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sabir.hussain on October 15, 2014, 03:54:14 PM
yup....hcar k ilawa :s1:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on October 15, 2014, 07:58:14 PM
Bubble lagta b haay, dikhta b haay
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 15, 2014, 08:03:59 PM
Agreed salam sahib
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on October 15, 2014, 08:37:12 PM
so seniors , offload kar dain kia shares of DFML and GAIL ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on October 15, 2014, 08:54:20 PM
so seniors , offload kar dain kia shares of DFML and GAIL ?
bro,
only u can answer this question for yourself
b/c v all have different investment approach
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on October 15, 2014, 11:43:59 PM
dewan motor and ghani auto is not longterm, these are satta items. so better to offload  as per i think. :dunno:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: misterjaved on October 16, 2014, 11:25:36 AM
can you advise about GAIL ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: JF on October 16, 2014, 11:36:46 AM
dewan motor and ghani auto is not longterm, these are satta items. so better to offload  as per i think. :dunno:

GHANDARA NISSAN and INDUSTRY both currently run on SATTA MENTAL
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 16, 2014, 05:41:29 PM
Agreed
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on October 17, 2014, 05:00:15 AM
dewan motor and ghani auto is not longterm, these are satta items. so better to offload  as per i think. :dunno:

GHANDARA NISSAN and INDUSTRY both currently run on SATTA MENTAL

Ghni &ghnl satta nhi hai ..
Both have better than last year sales and GHNL as a firm order of 500 units as per annual report ..
GHNL is also starting dongfeng trucks assembly this year

You can check q1 numbers below
dfml is satta ... dunno whats in gail
(http://i1012.photobucket.com/albums/af242/ouulman/pamasept14_zps6868b931.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: RSI Fan on October 17, 2014, 07:33:02 AM
dewan motor and ghani auto is not longterm, these are satta items. so better to offload  as per i think. :dunno:

GHANDARA NISSAN and INDUSTRY both currently run on SATTA MENTAL

Ghni &ghnl satta nhi hai ..
Both have better than last year sales and GHNL as a firm order of 500 units as per annual report ..
GHNL is also starting dongfeng trucks assembly this year

You can check q1 numbers below
dfml is satta ... dunno whats in gail
(http://i1012.photobucket.com/albums/af242/ouulman/pamasept14_zps6868b931.png)

 :good  great share  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Nasirkhan88 on October 17, 2014, 08:42:50 AM
dewan motor and ghani auto is not longterm, these are satta items. so better to offload  as per i think. :dunno:

GHANDARA NISSAN and INDUSTRY both currently run on SATTA MENTAL

Ghni &ghnl satta nhi hai ..
Both have better than last year sales and GHNL as a firm order of 500 units as per annual report ..
GHNL is also starting dongfeng trucks assembly this year

You can check q1 numbers below
dfml is satta ... dunno whats in gail
(http://i1012.photobucket.com/albums/af242/ouulman/pamasept14_zps6868b931.png)

so that's d story.. valuable info..
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on October 17, 2014, 11:15:54 AM
 :lazy2: :lazy2:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: misterjaved on October 17, 2014, 11:44:24 AM
i am holding GAIL at price of 7.30 average. please need advise about it
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: JF on October 17, 2014, 11:59:12 AM
Check Ghandara Nissan and Industry in EPS and also in STOCK MARKET
mostly AUTO SECTOR perform high due to INDUS share price.....
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ksenewb on October 17, 2014, 02:11:58 PM
dewan motor and ghani auto is not longterm, these are satta items. so better to offload  as per i think. :dunno:

GHANDARA NISSAN and INDUSTRY both currently run on SATTA MENTAL

Ghni &ghnl satta nhi hai ..
Both have better than last year sales and GHNL as a firm order of 500 units as per annual report ..
GHNL is also starting dongfeng trucks assembly this year

You can check q1 numbers below
dfml is satta ... dunno whats in gail


SBM Bhai, can GHNL post an EPS of rs. 2 in this quarter?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on October 17, 2014, 02:29:27 PM
http://www.ghaniautomobiles.com/plans.htm
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SYB on October 17, 2014, 02:55:12 PM
Avoid Auto sector  :rtfm:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 17, 2014, 05:04:36 PM
Highly overbought Allah khair kare
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ksenewb on October 17, 2014, 05:27:56 PM
Highly overbought Allah khair kare

GHNL can post a very good result

 truck Sales for 4th quarter of last year were 114 and EPS of 1.74 rs... for 1st qtr of 2015, truck sales are 159, on this basis and weaker YEN the company can easily post an EPS of rs. 2.25 for this quarter in its BM on next friday.. valuing it at Rs 90 at a PE of 10..what say guys?? There are almost no long term loans so now surprises expected in terms of finance costs...Further, as per its annual report it has setup a subsidairy to assemble dong feng trucks as well orders in hand for 500 trucks.. which will also add to earnings in future as SBM bhai also pointed out.

Excellent chance to accumulate at lower locks before BM next friday  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on October 17, 2014, 06:38:42 PM
http://www.pama.org.pk/statistical-information/sales-production/monthly-sales-production
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on October 18, 2014, 01:30:59 AM
Highly overbought Allah khair kare

GHNL can post a very good result

 truck Sales for 4th quarter of last year were 114 and EPS of 1.74 rs... for 1st qtr of 2015, truck sales are 159, on this basis and weaker YEN the company can easily post an EPS of rs. 2.25 for this quarter in its BM on next friday.. valuing it at Rs 90 at a PE of 10..what say guys?? There are almost no long term loans so now surprises expected in terms of finance costs...Further, as per its annual report it has setup a subsidairy to assemble dong feng trucks as well orders in hand for 500 trucks.. which will also add to earnings in future as SBM bhai also pointed out.

Excellent chance to accumulate at lower locks before BM next friday  :biggthumpup:

yes i think 10 rupees for the year is possible with 4-6 dividend
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on October 20, 2014, 01:34:34 PM
Mere pas GAIL 250000 hein at avg 7.15

please give suggestion. ye wapis bhi aye ga ya lamba na latka de kahi

pehna gae maal directors .. around 9 million shares sold

http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/058903.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 20, 2014, 05:19:41 PM
Agreed
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 20, 2014, 10:12:24 PM
Yes
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 20, 2014, 10:22:13 PM
lo gi abi director ki sale ka masla tha   http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/058903.pdf

ab ye aik naya masla a gia

http://jang.com.pk/jang/oct2014-daily/20-10-2014/u31294.htm
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on October 21, 2014, 12:23:17 AM
Senior advice about GAIL ? holding of average 7.20 ...

sell kar dain kia , directors nay bohat maal sell kia hai aaaj :(
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SYB on October 21, 2014, 12:06:37 PM
avoid auto sector  uuu
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on October 23, 2014, 01:51:14 PM
http://dps.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=059206



Lo je b.m a gai hai.. ab kaya ho ga
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DEVDAS on October 24, 2014, 12:05:15 AM
avoid auto sector  uuu
certain auto shares has great potential, only avoid satta items.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 24, 2014, 08:12:46 PM
Highly overbought Allah khair kare
avoid this sector before correction completed
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: JF on October 27, 2014, 09:54:02 PM
aaj phir GAIL ki AUNTY director nay 250000 shares sold kar dia 6.46 main
to create panic in investor
and all transaction are cross between GAIL and KSE Big Brokers to create panic in the market that they sold their shares....

and hoping that UNCLE's and Auntie's will by gain for capital gain might b around 5-5.50

Its just assumption not creating any panic
....
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on October 28, 2014, 04:37:51 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/059696.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 31, 2014, 07:52:38 PM
Pakistan Tractors: Tractor sales to rebound sharply
Due to government support and improving rural economy, sales of locally assembled tractors in Pakistan is expected to rebound. After falling in last few years, we expect tractor sales to grow by 37% in FY15 and 10% in FY16.
In Federal Budget FY15, Govt. announced reduction in General Sales Tax (GST) from 16% to 10% and increased agri-credit loan target from Rs380bn to Rs500bn. Both of these measures will provide the much needed growth in tractors sales.
Agriculture makes 20% of Pakistan’s GDP. Consistent increase in commodity support prices (wheat support price doubled in last 5 years), rising farmers’ education on using modern techniques and booming remittances (up 166% in last 5 years) have improved buying power of farmers in Pakistan. As rising population base and inheritance has resulted in lesser available crop area per person, farmers are more concerned on improving yields. In this attempt, farmers are relying more on fertilizers, pesticides and modern equipments. Higher agri-credit, mainly from Zarai Taraqiati bank, and rising remittances would also help in rising tractors sales in addition to lower GST and supportive Govt. policies.
Healthy margins due to pricing power
Dominated by two players, Pakistan tractor sector is more like a monopoly providing opportunity to pass on increase in cost. Millat Tractors (MTL) has a market share of 64%, followed by Al-Ghazi (AGTL) 34%.
Tractor industry has achieved ~90-95% localization levels while cost pressures are driven by fluctuations in local input costs. MTL purchases parts from associated companies, i.e. Tipej Intertrade, Millat Industrial Products, Millat Equipment and Bolan Casting. It is observed that MTL has been able to maintain its gross margins between 17%-18% whereas cost pressures have been passed on in shape of price increase to the customers. MTL maintained its gross margins at 17.9% in FY14 at a time when its sales remained lowest in last 8 years.
AGTL not only maintained its gross margins historically but also remained successful in expanding them. It was able to maintain its gross margins in the range of 17%-22% during 2009-13. Despite the fact that 2014 was a difficult year for tractor industry, margin expansion could be observed on the back of stronger Pak-Rupee against US-Dollar. Gross margins of AGTL have increased by 400bps to 26.1% in 9M2014.

topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on November 05, 2014, 01:05:31 PM
GAIL main kafi dino se 6 se 6.40 main treading ho rahe hai. bhaio is ke koi news hai...
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on November 06, 2014, 11:33:32 AM
 :@
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 11, 2014, 12:58:48 PM
http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf

October Sales figure
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 11, 2014, 01:09:21 PM
http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf

October Sales figure

Nissan ki sale down hay especially Isuzu ki Toyota or Honda ki bi down hay
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 11, 2014, 01:13:05 PM
http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf

October Sales figure

Nissan ki sale down hay especially Isuzu ki Toyota or Honda ki bi down hay

Sold all HCAR............... :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 11, 2014, 01:29:04 PM
http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf

October Sales figure

Nissan ki sale down hay especially Isuzu ki Toyota or Honda ki bi down hay

Sold all HCAR............... :biggthumpup:
see the sales figure.............my point of view sell call for auto RSI bi too much high hay..............better to sell and invest in cement as MP is due
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: m.omar on November 11, 2014, 05:10:31 PM
Aoa
Did any one check Honda bike sales in October
Good increase month on month ,
Royalty payments to Honda Japan should be less due
To 8-10 percent depreciation of jpy vs pkr
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on November 11, 2014, 05:41:07 PM
Unexpected and unbeleiveable perrformance
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 11, 2014, 07:40:27 PM
Pakistan Car Assemblers: October car sales up 27% YoY, 4MFY15 sales up 4%
Pakistan car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) of local assemblers during Oct 2014 stood at 12,651 units compared to Sep 2014 sales of 12,693 units, while up 27% compared to Oct 2013 sales of 9,955 units. During 4MFY15, sales are up 4% to 44,550 units compared to 42,796 units in the same period last year. Surge in Oct sales was expected after the launch of new model of ‘Corolla’ by Indus Motors (INDU). As improvement in Oct 2014 sales was expected, it brings no change to our base case assumption of 30% growth in 2015 auto sales with Taxi Scheme and 4% without Taxi Scheme.
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC): Sales up by 16% YoY
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales improved to 6,441 units in Oct 2014, up 16%YoY and 4%MoM. During 4MFY15, sales of PSMC remained fairly stable at 23,472 units compared to 23,522 units in 4MFY14.
Company witnessed improvement of 38% in Cultus to 1,264 units versus 917 units in Sep 2014 while 10%MoM increase observed in Bolan to 1,208 units versus 1,098 units in Sep 2014. Wagon-R unit sales increased by 24% to 321 units compared to 258 units in Sep 2014.
Indus Motors (INDU): Sales increased by 71% YoY
INDU sold 4,425 units in Oct 2014, up 71% compared to 2,595 units in the same month last year primarily due to launch of new Corolla model. On month-on-month basis, INDU sales posted a slight decline to 4,425 units compared to 4,691 units in Sep 2014. During 4MFY15, sales increased by 30% to 14,287 units.
INDU’s flagship ‘Corolla’ posted a decline of 6% on month-on-month basis to 4,099 units compared to 4,358 units in Sep 2014. We attribute this decline to Eid holidays in Oct. On yearly basis, Corolla sales surged significantly by 81% compared to 2,266 units in the same month last year. Sales of Fortuner improved by 41% to 79 units versus 56 units in Sep 2014.
Honda Cars (HCAR): Sales increased by 1% YoY
HCAR sold 1,735 units in Oct 2014, up 1% compared to 1,720 units in the same month last year. On month-on-month basis, HCAR sales remained stable in Oct 2014. During 4MFY15, sales decreased by 17% to 6,622 units.

topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on November 11, 2014, 11:25:35 PM
GAIL KI KIA NEWS HAI ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 13, 2014, 06:10:30 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: Positives overplayed; Reiterate underweight

Stellar rally in automobiles…
Elixir Auto sector universe has rallied by 54% during FY15TD, outperforming the broader market by 47%. This recent exuberance has been on the back of 1) new model launch by INDU 2) Re-launch of Punjab taxi scheme with more than twice the quantum (~50k units expected) 3) recent steep JPY depreciation (6%) against USD and 4) expectations of a favorable ADP II where the EDB has proposed cutting CKD duties to  25% (from 32.5%).
…Current levels offer apt exit
We believe the market has overplayed these positives. Our bearish stance emanates from 1) already high motorization levels of 19 motor vehicles per 1000 people and which is at par with India  2) While auto loans trend have picked up, rising by 26% YoY to ~PKR64bn in FY14, they have failed to boost volumes and the loan stock is still significantly lower than FY07 peak levels of PKR 105bn 3) modest economic growth expected in FY15 of 4.3% and 4) Expected cut in CKD duties in ADPII shall likely be followed by proportionate price cuts as the government will likely ensure that the benefit is passed on to the consumers.
JPY depreciation to primarily aid INDU
The recent steep JPY depreciation against USD (6%) has primarily stemmed from sustained loose monetary policy adopted by BoJ. This has the potential to prop up margins of INDU given its comparatively strong pricing power in the backdrop of new model launch and extended bookings of Corolla.
Positives overplayed; Reiterate underweight
Incorporating 5% p.a. growth in volumes along with average 10.4% margins going forward (?2pp relative to last 5 year average) for INDU and average 8.6% margins (?4.9pp relative to last 5 year average) for PSMC on the back of receding JPY. Our Jun-15 PT for INDU and PSMC are PKR730/sh (+34%) and 300/sh (+3.4%) still offer downsides of 17% and 22% respectively. We maintain our underweight stance on the sector.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on November 14, 2014, 05:45:04 PM
Slowly bubble burst
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: umarm on November 14, 2014, 05:48:47 PM
AAB HCAR , Indus aur PSMC ki thokai ho gii. Sab say zaida HCAR pitay ga.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 17, 2014, 06:52:44 AM
http://e.dunya.com.pk/detail.php?date=2014-11-17&edition=LHR&id=1394840_91998315

Local auto industry  :thumbsdown_anim:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: RSI Fan on November 17, 2014, 11:47:44 AM
Tractor production rises by 65 % first quarter
Ø  There has been 65 % increase in the production of farm tractors in the first quarter of 2014 (July to October) than the first quarter of 2013. The three tractor manufacturers produced 15,617 tractors as against 9,721 of July-October 2013, PAMA sources told They said that there has been correspondent increase in the sale of tractors as the buyers picked up 13,556 tractors from the market during the first four months of the current year as against 8,392 pieces of July-October 2013.
Ø  Sources said that Millat tractors (Massey Ferguson) took the lion's share of the market which produced 10,869 tractors and sold 8,496 units. Alghazi tractors (Fiat) produced 4,393 and sold 4894 pieces. Orient IMT produced 333 tractors and sold 105 pieces. They said that this significant revival of the tractor was due to the timely reduction in the GST on tractors that made the prices of the attractive for the buyers' especially small farmers and self employed persons. (BR Nov 17, 2014)
 
SCS TRADE   :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 19, 2014, 11:07:59 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/4930:the-auto-question/?date=2014-11-19
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: zahid on November 25, 2014, 04:41:04 PM
http://e.jang.com.pk/11-25-2014/Lahore/pic.asp?picname=05_27.gif
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 11, 2014, 10:41:44 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan: Autos Volume uptick to complement high margins
PAMA has released auto numbers for the month of Nov'14 where total auto sales (cars+LCVs) in Nov'14 have registered at 11,789 units (-7%MoM/+23%YoY); with car sales clocking in at 10,343 units (-8%MoM/+23%YoY). While the sequential decline is inline with seasonal expectations ahead of New Year registrations, the YoY increase is encouraging with impetus provided by INDU post launch of the new Corolla. As a result, 5MFY15 car sales are up by 8%YoY to clock in at 49,205 units. The listed auto sector has gained 67%FYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index's returns of 7.2% in the same period where outperformance has been driven by margin expansion on a weaker JPY rather than any robust increase in volumetric sales. We opine that the next leg of growth could come from higher unit sales, particularly as we see auto financing further pick up in a lower interest rate environment. This could potentially serve to justify current premium valuations. Our preferred play within the space is PSMC (CY15F P/E: 6.2x; TP: PkR394.6/share) on relatively un-stretched valuations and room to grow capacity utilization.   
Nov'14 sales review: Total auto sales (cars+LCVs) in Nov'14 have registered at 11,789 units (-7%MoM/+23%YoY) with car sales clocking in at 10,343 units (-8%MoM/+23%YoY). As a result, 5MFY15 car sales are up by 8%YoY at 49,205 units. At the same time, LCV/Pickup sales have increased up by 6%YoY in 5MFY15 to clock in at 7,134 units. Tractors continued their robust uptick with Nov'14 sales clocking in at 4,901 units (+17%MoM/13%YoY). Cumulatively, 5MFY15 tractor sales are up by 46%YoY at 18,457 units with sales for AGTL and MTL up by 30%YoY and 55%YoY, respectively.
PSMC: The company sold 5,984 units in Nov'14 (-7%MoM/flattish YoY) to bring 5MFY15 sales to 29,456 units, also flat. We expect sales to pick up momentum from Jan'15 onwards on commencement of the New Year coupled with the Punjab Rozgar Scheme. PSMC trades at a CY15F P/E of 6.2x where our target price of PkR394.6/share implies a Neutral stance. PSMC is our preferred play within the auto space on relatively un-stretched valuations, room to grow capacity utilization (currently < 150k) and popularity in cities which shields the company from risks to rural incomes due to the ongoing commodity slump.
INDU: Nov'14 sales of 4,499 units are up 2%MoM/106%YoY with sales of the Corolla variant clocking in at 4,202 units (+3%MoM/114%YoY) following recent launch of the new model. In 5MFY15, INDU's sales are higher by 42%YoY to 18,786 units. At current levels, our target price of PkR824.6/share implies a Reduce stance. While still too early to call, we flag potential compression in rural incomes as key challenge for INDU.         .
HCAR: Has sold 1,266 units in Nov'14 (-27%MoM/-3%YoY) where Civic sales are lower by 45%MoM/30%YoY.  Consequently, HCAR's 5MFY15 sales have registered at 7,888 units (-15%YoY), clearly losing out to INDU's Corolla.
Investment Perspective: The listed auto space has gained 67%FYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index's returns of 7.2% over the same period. This outperformance has mainly been driven by margin expansion on a weaker JPY (it has depreciated by 16%FYTD/19%CYTD vs. the PkR). Going forward, we see a general volumetric uptick complementing sustained high margins, particularly as auto financing is expected to increase (currently growing at 25%YoY). We maintain a relative preference for PSMC (TP: PkR394.6/share).
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 11, 2014, 10:43:33 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: Buoyant INDU boosts industry’s volumes
Buoyant INDU boosts industry’s volumes
Automobile sales clocked in at 11,789 units during the month of Nov-14, rising by 23% YoY. This surge in volumes was primarily aided by the new Corolla (+114%) model while sales of HCAR (-3% YoY) and PSMC (flat YoY) remained subdued, restricting overall industry growth. Cumulative volumes for 5MFY15 increased by 7.6% reaching 56,339 units.
INDU continues its impressive march
INDU’s volumes continued its impressive march, with all its variants posting impressive growth. INDU’s volumes rose by 106%, clocking in at 4,499 units primarily due to continued exuberance in sales of new Corolla (+114%) model. Overall volumes of INDU jacked up by 42% during 5MFY15 to 18,786 units.
PSMC’s volumes flat YoY; Wagon R losing steam
PSMC’s total volumes clocked in at 5,984 units, flat YoY. Ravi and Bolan variants were the outperformers in their respective categories, both rising by 35% and 18% YoY. PSMC’s newly launched Wagon R variant sales clocked in at 222 units, down 31% MoM and has started to lose its post launch euphoria. Volumes of Wagon R which averaged ~500 units in the first four months have sharply fallen down by 42% to average at ~290 units in the preceding four months.
Investment case
We maintain our underweight stance on the sector with Jun-15 PT of PKR770/sh for INDU and PKR300/sh for PSMC.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on December 11, 2014, 11:00:51 PM
hcar ka kia Karun? nikal dun ya hold?? barhne ki umeed hai>> meri buying 119 ki hai..already in good loss  huhu huhu
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on December 12, 2014, 04:11:42 AM
If this applies... http://www.express.pk/story/309567/ ........auto sector badly  :thumbsdown_anim:

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on December 13, 2014, 05:28:14 PM
Slowly bubble burst
highly overbought sector now
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on December 23, 2014, 02:05:34 AM
Slowly bubble burst
highly overbought sector now

bubble main dobarah hawa bharo

http://www.express.pk/story/312314/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 26, 2014, 12:27:07 AM
http://www.topgear.com/india/car-gallery/cars-launching-in-india-in-2015/itemid-89?currentid=14636

and pakistan will get mehran in new colors.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: HAMDANI_Punjtani on December 26, 2014, 07:01:01 AM
Slowly bubble burst
highly overbought sector now

bubble main dobarah hawa bharo

http://www.express.pk/story/312314/

Honda mein game ho saktee hai........quiet resilient.....
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ksenewb on December 26, 2014, 09:55:23 AM
Slowly bubble burst
highly overbought sector now

bubble main dobarah hawa bharo

http://www.express.pk/story/312314/

Honda mein game ho saktee hai........quiet resilient.....

downwards jaaney ki game lagti hai..resilient also means that there is strong resistence when a script is trading in a tight trading range with such resistence more chance is to go down than up
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: salaara579 on January 05, 2015, 07:56:25 PM
whole sector is under pressure from approx a month.... :down: despite goods sales overall :skeptic: any reason???
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: stockz_123 on January 13, 2015, 04:37:29 PM
AKD Daily

 

Pakistan Autos: Dec’14 Review and 2015 outlook

 

PAMA has released auto numbers for the month of Dec’14 where total auto sales (cars+LCVs) have registered at 11,018 units (-6%MoM/+25% YoY); with car sales clocking in at 9,522 units (-8%MoM/+32% YoY). While seasonal expectations ahead of the New Year registrations led to the sequential decline, new model launches by Honda and Toyota Indus spurred the YoY uptick. As a result, 1HFY15 car sales are up by 11%YoY to stand at 58,727 units. Having gained 202% FYTD, the listed auto sector has outperformed the KSE-100 Index by a massive 189% driven primarily by margin expansion on a weaker JPY. Going forward, we expect volumes to come into play and carry the growth momentum ahead particularly as we see auto financing to pick up in a lower interest rate environment. Our preferred play within the auto space is PSMC (CY15F P/E of 6.5x; TP:PkR427.5/sh).                 

 

Dec’14 sales review: Total auto sales (cars+LCVs) in Dec’14 grew by 25%YoY registering at 11,018 units, with car sales clocking in at 9,522 units (+32%YoY) thanks to the new model launches in the 1300cc+ category. As a result, 1HFY15 car sales are up by 11%YoY at 58,727 units. At the same time, LCV/Pickup sales have also shown decent growth of 8%MoM to stand at 1,565 units in Dec’14. While 1HFY15 tractor sales are up 9%YoY at 20,857 units, we see a steep sequential volumetric decline of 51% in Dec’14 with sales for AGTL and MTL down by 63%MoM and 75%MoM respectively.

 

PSMC: The company sold 6,245 units in Dec’14 (4%MoM/ flatYoY) to bring 1HFY15 sales to a flattish 35,701 units. While Ravi and Bolan continued to grow, sales for the rest of the variants were either flat or down as customers wait for the New Year.  Going forward, Jan’15 sales are expected to pick up on commencement of the New Year coupled with Punjab Rozgar Scheme. PSMC has gained 45% FYTD to trade at CY15F P/E of 6.5x where our TP of PkR427.5 implies an Accumulate stance. PSMC remains our preferred pick in the auto space where apart from margin expansion, the company is all set to grow volumetrically on account of the Punjab Rozgar Scheme.

 

INDU: While 1HFY15 sales of 22,883 units are up 51%YoY following recent launch of the new model, sales number for the month of Dec’14 have dropped by 9%MoM, clocking in at 4,097 units. Having gained 66%FYTD, our TP of PkR824.6/sh implies a Reduce stance. With the margin story already factored in the current price, we advise caution on INDU as we flag potential compression in rural incomes as a key challenge for volumes.

 

HCAR: With sales down 45%MoM, Dec’14 has clearly been a tough month for HCAR where Civic sales are lower by 49%MoM/34%YoY. Consequently, HCAR’s 1HFY15 sales have registered at 8,578 units; down 14%YoY.

 

Investment Perspective: Driven mainly by margin expansion on a weaker JPY (down -13.5%FYTD/-16.2% CYTD vs. PkR), the listed auto sector has gained 202%FYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index’s return of 13% over the same period. Though we expect weakness in JPY to continue, we believe volumetric uptick to drive the growth momentum for auto manufacturers going forward particularly as lower inflationary environment is expected to further increase auto financing. We continue to prefer PSMC (TP: PkR427.5/sh)


Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 13, 2015, 07:20:36 PM
The Bell
 
Autos: 1HFY15 volumes up 10%, Dec-14 sees 25% YoY rise

1HFY15 volumes up 10%, Dec-14 sees 25% YoY rise
Sales for the month of Dec-14 registered at 11,087 units, surging by 25% YoY primarily due to low base effect of Corolla prior to launch of new model. INDU (+107%) remained the only outperformer in the industry during the month, PSMC and HCAR also witnessed modest growth of 4% and 5% YoY respectively. Overall cumulative automobile sales in 1HFY15 clocked in at 67,426 units, up 10.1% YoY
INDU maintains its outperformance streak
Despite volumetric decline in the Fortuner (-51% YoY) and Hilux (-60% YoY) variant, sales of INDU maintained its upward trend owing to continued exuberance in Corolla sales with total volumes rising by 107% to 4,097 units in Dec-14. While calendar year-end phenomenon led INDU’s Corolla to post MoM decline of 8%.
PSMC defies year end phenomenon
Volumetric sales trend of PSMC defied the obvious year-end demand slowdown with its volumes rising by 4% MoM and YoY to 6,245 units. The management had hinted that it has made some deliveries of Bolan and Ravi variant during Dec-14 under the ‘Apna Rozgar scheme’ which explains the unnatural MoM uptick in Ravi (+17% YoY) and Bolan (+7%) variant.
CY15 outlook: sanguine
We expect automobile volumes in CY15 to remain upbeat on account of 1) overall economic recovery 2) New model launches 3) ‘Apna Rozgar scheme’ by Punjab Govt and 4) downward interest-rate cycle which will likely stimulate auto loan trend. We expect margins to further improve in CY15 as weakness in Yen shall likely continue owing to quantitative easing in Japan whereas improving external outlook for Pakistan is set to keep PKR/USD parity relatively stable.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 15, 2015, 10:16:00 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/5087:auto-sector-in-top-gear/?date=2015-01-15
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Afzal on January 22, 2015, 01:42:42 PM
why HCAR is under pressure? any upside expected in HCar in near terms? above 200?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: hasnain0099 on January 22, 2015, 03:09:54 PM
why HCAR is under pressure? any upside expected in HCar in near terms? above 200?
Strenght in JPY
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: salaara579 on January 22, 2015, 10:35:29 PM
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/v/t1.0-9/p280x280/9805_10152597414090286_4020872156024929634_n.jpg?oh=947172788f938982b6cb374d0c178251&oe=5561775D&__gda__=1428366613_29833b32bb17b3e0dea8864d3363d0d3)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: stockz_123 on February 04, 2015, 11:59:00 AM
AKD Daily

 

Autos: Strong CY15 start can extend price performance

 

Following the increase in automobile demand (e.g. HCAR has reportedly recovered highest ever sales in Jan'15) and continued macro improvement, we revisit our investment cases for INDU and PSMC. In this regard, we have increased our volumes assumptions for INDU by ~19% on average through FY15F-FY19F and marginally increased volumes assumptions for PSMC. With the increased volumes amidst a soft inflation environment we have revised our earnings forecast for INDU in the 16%-29% range for FY15F-FY19F and for PSMC by 1.3% on average in CY14E to CY18F. Together with rollover, this results in revised TP of PkR1,102/share for INDU (FY16F P/E: 11.2x) and PkR450/share for PSMC (CY16F P/E: 10.7x) where we have an Accumulate stance on both. While we acknowledge that auto shares have rallied very swiftly over the last year, we believe premium valuations are justified where the next 2-3yrs can potentially result in a compelling mix of strong margins and higher volumes. Risks emanate from the upcoming Auto policy, although the final draft is likely to take time to shape.

 

Higher volumes in 1HFY15: In 1HFY15 industry volumes rose by 10%YoY (Cars + LCVs) where INDU outshone with a growth of 51%YoY with sales of 22,883 units. As a result, INDU's market share improved to 37% in Dec'14 vs. 22% in Dec'13. At the same time, PSMC recorded sales volumes of 35,701 units in 1HFY15, flattish YoY with the market share of the company declining to 56% in Dec'14 vs. 67% in Dec'13. Based on a likely strong start in the new year (e.g. HCAR has reportedly posted highest ever sales of 3,231 units in Jan'15; +24%YoY), we expect FY15 volumes for INDU to clock in at ~54k units. Going forward, we raise our volume assumptions for INDU by 19% on average across our forecast horizon. Conversely, while we raise volume assumptions for PSMC as well, in this case the incremental estimate revisions are marginal.

 

Improved macros: Jan'15 CPI has clocked in at just 3.88%YoY, its lowest since the CPI index has rebased (FY07-08). Together with a stronger external a/c position, the monetary easing process (DR cut by 150bps FYTD to 8.5%) is likely to continue. This holds positives for auto financing, particularly as the SBP governor has recently hinted at taking regulatory steps to curb banks' margins. In this regard, the current auto finance growth run rate of 27%YoY can potentially increase. Note that auto financing as a % of outstanding private sector credit stands at 2% vs. ~5% in 2006/07. As a result, for the Pakistan Auto sector the next 2-3yrs can potentially result in a compelling mix of strong margins and higher volumes.

 

Result previews: We expect INDU to record NPAT of PkR2,589mn (EPS: PKR32.94) in 1HFY15 against NPAT of PkR1,352mn (EPS: PkR17.20) in 1HFY14, registering a robust growth of 91%YoY. In 2QFY15 alone, we expect INDU to record NPAT of PkR1,462mn (EPS: PkR18.60), registering a growth of 30%QoQ. Together with the result, we expect the company to announce an interim cash dividend of PkR15/share. For PSMC, we expect NPAT of PkR2,409mn (EPS: PKR29.28) in CY14, up by 30%YoY. In 4QCY14 alone we expect PSMC to record NPAT of PkR799mn (EPS: PkR9.71), higher by 39%QoQ with impetus provided by the Punjab Rozgar Scheme.

 

Investment perspective: INDU and PSMC have gained 15.7% and 15.1% CYTD, respectively outperforming the broader market by 7.4% and 6.7% in the same period. While the next Auto policy poses risks, we believe stakeholders still remain some way off reaching consensus which could continue to delay the policy's final announcement. Within this backdrop, we expect a likely strong start to CY15 to further buoy auto stocks. At current levels, INDU and PSMC trade at a forward P/E of 11.2x and 7.2x (CY16F: 10.7x) where our revised TPs are PkR1,102/share and PkR450/share respectively.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on February 11, 2015, 06:45:17 PM
Pakistan Car Assemblers: Jan 2015 car sales up 27%YoY – highest in last 31months
Pakistan car sales (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) of local assemblers during Jan 2015 stood at 17,709 units, highest car sales since Jun 2012, compared to 13,910 units in the same month last year, depicts an increase of 27%YoY. Furthermore, car sales surged by 60%MoM. During 7MFY15, sales are up 13% to 85,135 units compared to 75,162 units in the same period last year led by Toyota Corolla new model and invoicing of Taxi Scheme.
Robust increase in tractor sales was observed after the reduction of General Sales Tax (GST) in last budget. In 7MFY15, tractor sales surged by 25% to 24,397 units compared to 19,564 units in the corresponding period last year. Millat Tractors lead the tractor segment in volumes by selling 14,965 units, up 28%YoY followed by Al-Ghazi tractors with 9,023 units, up 25%YoY.
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC): Highest monthly sales since Jun 2012
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales increased by 13%YoY to 7,987 units in Jan 2015. Volumes also improved by 29%on Month-on-Month basis. We attribute this improvement to the invoicing of cabs in Dec 2014 & Jan 2015 under the ‘Taxi scheme’. In 7MFY15, sales of PSMC rose by 2% at 43,643 units versus 42,581 units in 7MFY14.
The company witnessed improvement of 37%YoY in Mehran to 3,467 units in Jan 2015 versus 2,531 units in Jan 2014. However, Ravi showed a slight improvement of 1%MoM to 1,285 units while sales of Bolan remained fairly stable on month-on-month basis. We believe that relatively stable numbers of Ravi and Bolan in Jan 2015 is due to slight delay in Taxi Scheme. Both, Ravi and Bolan, will be delivered under taxi scheme.
We maintain ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip which is trading at 2015F PE of 9.3x.
Indus Motors (INDU): Highest ever monthly sales
INDU sold 6,415 units in Jan 2015, up 61% compared to 3,992 units in the same month last year. On MoM basis, INDU sales increased by 57% from 4,100 units in Dec 2014. During 7MFY15, sales increased by 53% to 29,301 units.
INDU’s flagship ‘Corolla’ posted an increase of 51%MoM to 5,864 units compared to 3,882 units in Dec 2014. We attribute this increase to the sale of Corolla’s new model coupled with New Year registration phenomenon.
On yearly basis, Corolla sales surged significantly by 63% compared to 3,611 units in the same month last year.
We maintain our ‘Hold’ stance on the Indus Motors which currently trading at FY15E PE of 12.3x.
Honda Cars (HCAR): Highest monthly sales in last 9 year
HCAR sold 3,221 units in Jan 2015 compared to 2,600 units in the same month last year, up 24%YoY. On Month-on-Month basis, HCAR sales increased by 360% in Jan 2015 from 700 units in Dec 2014. Last time it was in Mar 2006 when the company sold 3,522 units.
In 7MFY15, sales of HCAR have now registered a decline of 6% to 11,809 units mainly due to the introduction of Corolla’s new model in July 2014.

Topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on February 12, 2015, 05:39:45 PM
The Bell
 
Autos: January effect boosts industry volumes

January volumes rise by 27% YoY
Automobile sales for the month of Jan-15 registered at 17,709 units, surging by 27% YoY primarily due to greater exuberance witnessed in the higher end segment with both Corolla (+62%) and City (+59%) variant leading the pack. PSMC (+13% YoY) and HCAR (+24% YoY) also posted sizable gains during the month as January effect kicked on. Overall, cumulative volumes in 7MFY15 clocked in at 85,135 units, up 13% YoY.
All time high Corolla sales and production
INDU continued with its outperformance streak into January as well with its Corolla variant posting an all time high sales of 5,864 units (+62% YoY) during the period. Production volumes also touched an all time high of 6,016 units, indicating that demand for Corolla is expected to remain robust for at least in the next few months.
One-off in HCAR; PSMC rescued by Mehran
Volumes of HCAR rose to 3,221 units; up by 24% YoY during the month primarily led by growth in volumes of its City variant which rose by 59% YoY whereas sales of its Civic variant fell by 13% YoY. PSMC’s volumes on the other hand witnessed a relatively modest growth of 13% YoY, rescued by sizable growth in Mehran volumes (+37%) while sales of its other variants remained depressed.
PSMC launches Kizashi; we remain skeptical of its success
PSMC yesterday launched Suzuki Kizashi, a 2400cc CBU variant with a substantial price tag of PKR5mn. We believe response from the customers is likely to be minimal given the value proposition of the car against already established and relatively cheaper luxurious brands present in the market (Audi, Mercedes and BMW).

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on February 12, 2015, 05:40:35 PM
AKD Daily
 
Auto Sector: A perfect start to the New year!

 
Led by spectacular monthly offtake performance by HCAR and INDU that sold 3,221 units (up 4.8xMoM/24%YoY) and 6,415 units (up 57%MoM/61%YoY) respectively, 2015 kicked off on a high note for the auto industry. In this regard, the industry witnessed record high sales of 17,709 units (cars+LCVs) in the month of Jan'15, taking 7MFY15 sales figure to 85,135 units vs. 75,162 units in 7MFY14. While the New Year phenomenon has played its part in driving up volumes, we believe new model launches further carried forward the momentum. In tandem, tractor sales also continued their upward journey selling 3,540 units in Jan'15 (+602%YoY/+48%MoM) taking 7MFY15 volumes higher by 29%YoY to 24,397 units. Having outperformed the market by 9.4% CYTD, we feel Auto sector has little to offer going forward where we highlight the auto policy as a key event that can dictate sector's price performance.   
 
Company wise breakup:
 
HCAR- couldn't have been better: With regards to sales volume, Jan'15 turned to be the best ever month for HCAR where the company sold 3,221 units in the month; up 24%YoY. Amongst the variants, City remained the star performer for HCAR with the highest ever sales volume of 2,103 units while Civic sales jumped up to 1,118 units. Cumulatively, HCAR registered sales volume of 11,799 units in 7MFY15, down 6.3%YoY with 4,144 units of Civic and 7,655 units of City sold.
 
INDU- highest ever monthly sales: In line with HCAR, INDU also hit its highest ever monthly sales figure of 6,415 units (+57%MoM/+61%YoY). Led by phenomenal sales volume of 5,864 units of its flagship product, Corolla, the company's 7MFY15 volumes went up by a massive 53%YoY to 29,298 units. Amongst others, Hilux and Fortuner also picked up pace, growing by 147%MoM and 238%MoM to 480 units and 71 units, respectively. While the numbers show an encouraging trend, we believe the positives with respect to margin expansion and volumetric uptick on account of new models have largely been priced in. In this regard, the stock trades at a forward PE multiple of 11.3x where our TP of PkR1,102/share offers limited upside potential of 7.1%.
 
PSMC- volumes up 28%YoY in Jan'15: PSMC recorded sales volumes of 7,987 units in Jan'15, up by 28%MoM/13%YoY with 7MFY15 total sales volume of 43,688 units. Apart from Cultus (-3.6%MoM), every other variant for PSMC witnessed strong growth in the period under review, Mehran (+66%MoM to 3,467 units), Swift (+56%MoM to 313 units) and Wagon R (+144%MoM to 475 units). Going forward, we expect volumes for the company to remain strong as the Punjab taxi scheme kicks in. PSMC has gained 19.7% CYTD and outperformed the broader market by 13.3% in the same period. At current price the stock trades at CY16 PE multiple of 11.1x where our TP of PkR450/share implies a Neutral stance.               .
 
Tractors continue to shine: The tractor industry recorded sales of 24,397 units (+29%YoY) in 7MFY15 on account of reduction in GST in Federal Budget FY15 to 10%. In Jan'15 alone, the industry recorded sales volume of 3,540 units (+48%MoM/602%YoY) due to abnormally lower sales in Jan'14. Company wise breakup reveal, MTL sold 2,154 units (+38%MoM)  in the month whereas AGTL recorded sales volume of 1,310 units (+72%MoM)  culminating into 7MFY15 sales volume of 14,965 units and 9,023 units, respectively.
 
Investment Perspective: The auto sector has gained 9.4% CYTD outperforming KSE-100 Index by 3.0% in the same period with stock prices at their all-time high levels. While the industry's volumetric uptick is encouraging, we see limited upside triggers for the auto sector in general. Moreover, any development on the Auto Policy front can further dictate price performance accordingly. At current levels, we have an Accumulate stance on INDU with a TP of PkR1,102/sh wheras PSMC at a TP of PkR450/sh implies a Neutral stance.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on February 23, 2015, 12:19:47 AM
Ghani auto board meeting tomorrow,  :$:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on March 10, 2015, 08:01:20 PM
(http://puu.sh/guver/aeb6ecc735.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on March 10, 2015, 09:09:39 PM
(http://puu.sh/guver/aeb6ecc735.png)

PSMC the winner
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on March 10, 2015, 09:51:02 PM
so whats the future , auto will run or not ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on March 10, 2015, 10:19:32 PM
 :fingerscrossed1: will fly INSHALLAH
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 10, 2015, 10:25:28 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/5245:auto-policy-2015-put-consumers-in-driving-seat/?date=2015-03-09
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on March 10, 2015, 10:33:39 PM
MTL

2435 sales feb15 against 1060 same month last year

4589 sales for jan15-feb15 against 1249 same period last year




HINO

160 sales feb15 against 143 same month last year

320 sales for jan15-feb15 against 269 same period last year

*Data includes both trucks and buses



AGTL

1503 sales feb15 against 545 same month last year

2813 sales for jan15-feb15 against 860 same period last year
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on March 10, 2015, 10:40:05 PM
keep an eye , hopefully will rock soon  :shoaby:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Dehan on March 10, 2015, 10:49:01 PM
MTL

2435 sales feb15 against 1060 same month last year

4589 sales for jan15-feb15 against 1249 same period last year




HINO

160 sales feb15 against 143 same month last year

320 sales for jan15-feb15 against 269 same period last year

*Data includes both trucks and buses



AGTL

1503 sales feb15 against 545 same month last year

2813 sales for jan15-feb15 against 860 same period last year
Yaar ye itnein sooday koon otha reha ha.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on March 11, 2015, 12:22:49 AM
MTL

2435 sales feb15 against 1060 same month last year

4589 sales for jan15-feb15 against 1249 same period last year




HINO

160 sales feb15 against 143 same month last year

320 sales for jan15-feb15 against 269 same period last year

*Data includes both trucks and buses



AGTL

1503 sales feb15 against 545 same month last year

2813 sales for jan15-feb15 against 860 same period last year
Yaar ye itnein sooday koon otha reha ha.

February had 3 days less than January plus 1 extra holiday on 5th February. Practically higher sales per day.
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 11, 2015, 08:16:19 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Auto: 8MFY15 Offtake - INDU leads the pack

 
As per the recently released PAMA numbers, inline with our expectations Pakistan auto sales for Feb'15 has been realized at 17,356 units (-2%MoM/+36%YoY). That said, total car sales were recorded at 14,041 units down 11%MoM but significantly improved when compared with 11,238 units sold in the same period last year on the back of superior performance by INDU's new model Corolla, which posted sales growth of 42%YoY to 4,449 units. The listed auto sector has gained 83%FYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index's returns of 10% in the same period where outperformance was driven by expectation of margin expansion on a weaker JPY coupled with robust increase in volumetric sales. With expectations of a rate cut (in the upcoming monetary policy) intact, we believe the next leg of growth will be fueled by increase in consumer financing which in turn will lead to improved sales. This could potentially serve to justify current premium valuations. Our preferred play within the space is INDU trading at FY15F P/E: 14.6x; TP: PkR1,102/share with an Accumulate stance.   
Feb'15 sales review: Total auto sales (Cars+LCVs) in Feb'15 have registered at 17,356 units (-2%MoM/+36%YoY) with car sales clocking in at 14,041 units (-11%MoM/+25%YoY). As a result, 8MFY15 car sales are up by 16%YoY at 88,538 units. At the same time, LCV/Pickup sales have increased by 17%YoY in 8MFY15 to 13,953 units. Tractors continued their inspired uptick with Feb'15 sales at 4,015 units (+13%MoM/+150%YoY). Cumulatively, 8MFY15 tractor sales are up by 39%YoY at 28,412 units with sales for AGTL and MTL up by 176%YoY and 130%YoY, respectively.
PSMC: The company sold 9,981 units in Feb'15 (+25%MoM/+44YoY) to bring 8MFY15 sales to 53,669 unit (+8%YoY). As expected, sales picked up momentum from Feb'15 onwards on commencement of the Punjab Rozgar Scheme. At present PSMC trades at a CY16F P/E of 10.9x where our target price of PkR450/share implies a Neutral stance.                     .
INDU: Feb'15 sales of 5,077 units are up 45%YoY, with sales of the Corolla variant reaching 4,449 units (-24%MoM/+42%YoY) following recent launch of the new model. In 8MFY15, INDU's sales are higher by 52%YoY to 34,375 units. With the purchase of leasehold land, as reported in the latest financials, a move for the plant expansion cannot be ruled out going forward. At current levels, our target price of PkR1,102/share implies an Accumulate stance (we have not build in any potential expansion in our investment case).     
HCAR: Has sold 2,242 units in Feb'15 (-30%MoM/flattish YoY) where Civic sales are lower by 36%MoM/24%YoY.  Consequently, HCAR's 8MFY15 sales have registered at 14,041 units (-5%YoY), clearly losing out to INDU's Corolla.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 11, 2015, 08:17:13 PM
 
The Bell
 
Autos: Apna Rozgar scheme initiation and persistent Corolla euphoria boosts volumes
Volumes rise 36% YoY
Automobile sales for February clocked in at 17,356 units, surging by 36% YoY as taxi scheme initiation and persistent exuberance in Corolla sales boosted overall industry volumes. Steep MoM decline in volumes was expected during the month owing to high base January but additional volumes from taxi scheme restricted the MoM downside. Overall, cumulative volumes in 8MFY15 registered at 102,491 units, up 16% YoY.
Apna Rozgar scheme kicks off
PSMC’s volumes defied MoM declining trend during the period with its total sales clocking in at 9,981 units, up 44% YoY and 25% MoM. Volumetric growth primarily emanated from initiation of Apna Rozgar scheme during the month as sales of both Bolan (+111% YoY) and Ravi (+135% YoY) variant more than doubled during the month.
Persistent Corolla euphoria maintains INDU’s upward trajectory
Volumes of INDU maintained its upward trajectory momentum; rising by 45% YoY as Corolla (+42% YoY) model euphoria continues. Whereas HCAR remained the lone straggler with overall  volumes flat on YoY basis as decline in Civic (-24% YoY) volumes nullified 18% growth in City volumes. Sales of City variant have picked up momentum since its face lift and price discount offered since Dec-14.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on March 23, 2015, 05:55:24 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/857367/local-assemblers-stand-strong-amid-sbp-ccp-criticism/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 08, 2015, 08:08:12 PM
Pakistan Car Assembler: Robust sales trend to continue/’Overweight’

Pakistan automobile shares particularly car assembler’s are expected to remain on investors’ radar in 2015 as well. Looking at rising sales trend and strong margins, we upgrade our stance to ‘Overweight’ after adjusting our financial models.
We now expect local car assembler’s sales to grow by 24% in FY15 and 17% in FY16 particularly due to launch of Toyota Corolla new model, Taxi scheme of Punjab Govt. and reviving car financing. The growth will normalize to 5% from FY17 onwards once taxi scheme is completed in FY16.
Pakistan has one of the lowest car per thousand of 11 cars providing room for growth with clear signs of economic recovery.
Pakistan car sales grew at 5-year (FY10-14) CAGR of 6.6% to 136,888 units. We estimate that sales of car assemblers will grow at 3-year (FY15-17) CAGR of 10% despite influx of imported used cars (approx. 40,000 cars per annum).
Our channel checks suggest that car sales in Mar 2015 reached a record of 21,900 units. Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sold 13,000 units (up 117% YoY), Indus Motor (INDU) 5,500 units (up 36% YoY) & Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) 2,400 units (up 22% YoY).
During 9MFY15, car sales are likely to grow 23% YoY to 123,542 units primarily due to the new model of Corolla and Taxi scheme delivery from Feb 2015. INDU is expected to post a significant volumetric growth of 50% followed by PSMC with growth of 20% during this period.
Earnings of car assemblers, hence, are expected to grow significantly by 47% in 2015 owing to expectations of strong volumetric growth, depreciation of Japanese Yen by 16% YoY last year against the US Dollar (US$) and strong pricing power of local assemblers.
Our preferred play is ‘PSMC’ which is expected to post earnings growth of 108% in 2015E. The stock is currently trading at 2015E PE of 8.2x. We also show our liking for ‘HCAR’ on account of volumetric uptick in its modified City model. HCAR to post earnings growth of 20% in 2016E and trades at PE of 9.4x. Moreover, we have a hold stance on ‘INDU’.
Catalyst of volumetric growth
Pakistan car sales are on upward trajectory and posted a strong volumetric growth in 9MFY15. We feel that following are the key catalyst for this volumetric growth;
Taxi scheme
Launch of new Corolla model
Diminishing inventory of used imported cars
Uptick in car financing by banks
Improving farmer economics
Decline in oil prices leading to higher disposable income
50,000 cars to be delivered under Taxi scheme
To recall, Govt. of Punjab announced Taxi scheme in its provincial budget last year. PSMC was selected to deliver 50,000 units of yellow cabs (50% Bolan and 50% Ravi). Govt. of Punjab started delivery of Taxi cabs from Feb 2015 and we assume 40,000 cabs will be distributed in 2015 and remaining in 2016.
Sales of PSMC grew at a 5-year (FY10-14) CAGR of 8.9% from 50,584 units to 77,608 units. We are expecting that volumes of PSMC will grow by 16% in FY15 and 32% in FY16 due to taxi scheme, increasing car financing and overall increase in disposable income.
INDU launched new model of Corolla in Jul 2014
INDU had unveiled long-awaited new 11th generation model of Corolla on July 16, 2014. This new model is selling like hot-cakes even after nine months of its launch date as delivery of car is given after 90-120 days. As per our sources, the company has sold 39,875 units in 9MFY15, up 49% YoY. It has an annual capacity of producing 54,800 units of Corolla on double-shift basis. This new model has played a key role in overall growth of the sector.
Car sales of INDU remained fairly stable (5-year CAGR of -0.1%) at 33,997 units. Now, sales have already picked up owing to new model of Corolla so we estimate volumes of the company will increase by 64% in FY15 and then may decline slightly by 2% in FY16.
Used and imported car sales
Besides locally assembled Japanese cars, used and imported cars are also sold in Pakistan. On an average, local assembled cars make up ~75%, while used imported cars are ~25% of total sales. Imports of used vehicles have declined by 52% to 23,484 units in FY14. To recall, Govt. relaxed age limit of used imported cars from three to five years in Feb 2011 and amnesty scheme for smuggled cars was also introduced in April 2012. This decision caused a huge influx of used imported vehicles in the local market which affected local sales in FY13 and FY14. The imported figure reveals that major imports of used vehicles were in the category of up to 1000cc (26,525 units in FY13 versus 16,193 units in FY14).
However, after observing significant decline in the sales of local assemblers, Govt. reversed its decision of age limit from five to three years in Dec 2012. Currently, import of used cars is declining due to reduced age limit and increased duties/taxes. This is providing much needed support to the volumetric growth of local auto assemblers particularly to PSMC as major imports were in the category of below 1000cc.
Car financing picking up gradually
Interest rates in Pakistan are falling (down 200bps in last 5 months). As a result, lending, especially car financing, is gradually increasing and currently stands at around ~25% compared to 70% in 2003-07 and ~5% in 2008-12. It may not reach to levels that we have seen 10-years back because of relatively stringent rules and regulations of banks now. But we expect car financing can reach 40-50% of cars sold.
Preferred Play: PSMC and HCAR
Our investment thesis for PSMC is based on 1) phenomenal growth in volumes owing to Taxi Scheme, 2) 17% depreciation of JPY against dollar since Jul 1, 2014 and 3) increased consumer financing. We expect that PSMC is likely to post EPS of Rs48.7/share in 2015 (up 108%). The stock that has fallen sharply by 14% from its peak Rs440/share dated Feb11, 2015 due to negative sentiment of the overall market, provides opportunity to accumulate at these levels.
We have a Hold stance on INDU as we believe that all positives are already priced-in. The stock has posted a decent price performance of 136% in last 12 months. The scrip is currently trading at 2015E PE of 12.2x.
Our likeness for HCAR is on the back of 1) impressive response of its ‘Honda City’ after some modifications as the variant is well received by the market and 2) stable margins due to strong PKR.

TopLine
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 09, 2015, 05:46:27 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Autos: Margins are on the rise!

 
Int'l iron ore prices came down 27.51%CY15TD on the back of dilution in Chinese demand following which, price of steel in the int'l market has came off by 22.56% during the same period. Keeping these developments in mind, we raise our DCF-based valuations, for INDU to PKR1,189/sh (up 7.8% from PkR1,102/sh) and for PSMC to PKR499/sh (up 11% from PkR450/sh) after incorporating the aforementioned slump in int'l steel prices and recent 50bps cut in the discount rate. Going forward, we opine that INDU & PSMC will continue to benefit from the combination of both strong demand and buoyant margins. We expect demand to stay robust while outlook for margins remain heavily dependent on Abenomics. At current levels, PSMC is trading at a forward P/E of 6.36x and implies a Buy stance with upside of 27.36% to our revised target price of PkR499/sh. Whereas, INDU is trading at a forward P/E of 14.6x where we have an Accumulate stance as it currently provides an upside of 14.36% from our revised target price of PkR1189.46/sh.
 
Steel down 23%, what's next?: Factoring in the impact of significant 22.56%CY15TD decline in int'l steel prices, we have raised our earnings estimates for both INDU (FY15E/FY16F by 2.3%/3.2%) and PSMC (CY15E/CY16F by 4.1%/6.6%). Our assumption is based on the premise that the companies will not pass on cost benefit to end consumer. While outlook for margins is also contingent on PkR/US$ and PkR/JPY parity, raw material costs which constitutes ~84% of total cost of sales, are linked to international steel prices which have tumbled to $377/ton, (-4.7%MoM/-30.8%YoY) the lowest since Jan'06. Consequently, we have decreased steel prices in our models by 1.0% for this year and 0.5% for the next year. Resultantly, expected FY15 margins for PSMC have improved from 10.8% to 11.2% while the same for INDU have bolstered from 10.90% to 11.17%.
 
Policy update? The auto policy which is due from 2012 is still in the phase of preparation as the local auto manufacturers and the GoP remain at odds on various issues. In this regard, the GoP is mulling to: (i) reducing CKD duty to 25% from 32.5% currently for existing players and (ii) allowing 10% CKD for new entrants for 5yrs. The provisions of upcoming auto policy can change the dynamics of the sector where tightening imports can further lead to improving volumes.  We still feel this policy may still take some time to come in place.
 
Investment Perspective: After exhibiting an unprecedented 3.17x price appreciation in CY14, the auto sector had a muted growth of 8.93% CY15TD. Going forward, the auto sector and specifically INDU & PSMC are expected to benefit from both strong demand and buoyant margins. We expect demand to stay robust while outlook for margins remains heavily dependent on Abenomics. At current levels, PSMC is trading at a forward P/E of 6.36x and implies a Buy stance with upside of 27.36% to our revised target price of PkR499/sh. Whereas, INDU is trading at a forward P/E of 14.6x where we have an Accumulate stance as it currently provides an upside of 14.36% from our revised target price of PkR1189.46/sh.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 10, 2015, 04:54:52 PM
https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf

Mar 2015 sales data... what a performance by almost whole sector. :clap1: :clap1: HINO,MTL,AGTL,INDU,PSMC, HCAR, NISAAN will be rocking from monday INSHALLAH... aaj HINO ko pata nh kyu giradia gya..shayad maal uthane k liye  :@

AGTL ne MTL k barabar sale kardi march mai
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 10, 2015, 04:58:28 PM
kese kamine hain.. market band hone k theek 5 min baad result upload kia hai..market k time pe nh kia. :bangin: uuu
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: arehman on April 10, 2015, 08:00:27 PM
Which result are you talking about Uzair bhai.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: jkhaliq on April 10, 2015, 08:19:59 PM
nice...
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: aleeimran on April 10, 2015, 11:43:48 PM
Automobile sales data for Mar 15

On MoM comparison Mar15 over Feb 15
 Total cars & LCVs  22%
 PSMC 30%
 INDU 13.6%
 HCAR  5.4%
 HINO 21.3%
 GHNL 5.8%
 GHNI 33.3%
 AGTL  36.7%
 MTL  5.5%


On QoQ comparison 3Q against 2Q
 Total cars & LCVs  58.4%
 PSMC 65.8%
 INDU 32.5%
 HCAR  112.1%
 HINO 11%
 GHNL 117%
 GHNI 27.3%
 AGTL  7.5%
 MTL  6.5%

YoY comparison 9MFY15 Against 9MFY14
 Total cars & LCVs  24.4%
 PSMC 20.1%
 INDU  50%
 HCAR  2%
 HINO  18.6%
 GHNL  122%
 GHNI  51.7%
 AGTL  45%
 MTL  35%
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on April 11, 2015, 02:23:55 AM
Automobile sales data for Mar 15

On MoM comparison Mar15 over Feb 15
 Total cars & LCVs  22%
 PSMC 30%
 INDU 13.6%
 HCAR  5.4%
 HINO 21.3%
 GHNL 5.8%
 GHNI 33.3%
 AGTL  36.7%
 MTL  5.5%


On QoQ comparison 3Q against 2Q
 Total cars & LCVs  58.4%
 PSMC 65.8%
 INDU 32.5%
 HCAR  112.1%
 HINO 11%
 GHNL 117%
 GHNI 27.3%
 AGTL  7.5%
 MTL  6.5%

YoY comparison 9MFY15 Against 9MFY14
 Total cars & LCVs  24.4%
 PSMC 20.1%
 INDU  50%
 HCAR  2%
 HINO  18.6%
 GHNL  122%
 GHNI  51.7%
 AGTL  45%
 MTL  35%

Thanks
Good job
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: saadqureshi on April 11, 2015, 03:43:26 AM
kese kamine hain.. market band hone k theek 5 min baad result upload kia hai..market k time pe nh kia. :bangin: uuu

no dear, theek 4:23 pe post hue hain figures. I was continously checking pama site since morning
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 11, 2015, 02:20:07 PM
kese kamine hain.. market band hone k theek 5 min baad result upload kia hai..market k time pe nh kia. :bangin: uuu

no dear, theek 4:23 pe post hue hain figures. I was continously checking pama site since morning

 :skeptic: hain..nhi to.. ishi time pe check kia tha mene shyd ..tb jab wo file dlt karte hain purani to jo error ata hai wo araha tha..phir thori dair bad file ai refresh karne pe :D    :skeptic: saad bhai apka time kharab hai  :D :D :D....

lkn HINO lock pe to nh band hua shyd
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on April 11, 2015, 02:55:05 PM
Psmc and har looks attractive
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 11, 2015, 03:49:43 PM
nadeem paji what about AGTL?? uski sales b to zbrdst hain is Quarter ki
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on April 11, 2015, 03:58:01 PM
Agtl also looks attractive
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 11, 2015, 04:52:42 PM
Nadeem bhai ap shayad Tezi mandee pe nhi ho..udher ik mashwara manga tha..ap b jawab dedo..

"MASHWARA REQUIRED..

kia mai BIPL bech kar AUTO sector mai kood jaon monday ko subah subah?? BIPL 10 avg pe hai..agar rights ka gain minus kardun to 9.55 avg hojaega. jo ajki closing price b hai... I think AUTO mai zayeda faida utha sakta hun next week bipl ko chor kr... ASIM , WASIM, MANSOOR, NAUMAN, ONLINE88, FASEE, MAVERICK bhai or baki seniors kia khayal hai..suggestion den..

I have 100 MTL(645) , 50 HINO (982) right now.. AGTL/PSMC , HCAR, HINO mai koodne ka irada hai "
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on April 11, 2015, 05:01:18 PM
Hcar me ap ko 10 Bach sakte hen
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: online88 on April 11, 2015, 11:27:51 PM
Syeduzair Bhai nadeem Bhai ney kaha hey to hcar buy kar Lein, I also planning to buy on Monday hcar , prl ka Bhi nadeem Bhai ney us waqt kaha tha jab yeh 154 per tha phir 200 touch ker k wapis aya, PAEL also still good
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 11, 2015, 11:38:32 PM
Syeduzair Bhai nadeem Bhai ney kaha hey to hcar buy kar Lein, I also planning to buy on Monday hcar , prl ka Bhi nadeem Bhai ney us waqt kaha tha jab yeh 154 per tha phir 200 touch ker k wapis aya, PAEL also still good

Thanks Online and Nadeem bhai  :biggthumpup:... PRL pe mene nazar he nh dorai phle.. or akhir mai rights k hawale se kuch picture clear nh hrhi thi kyu k 1st time XR pe share price kam hone ka scene aya tha mere samne...isliye nh lia last day.... wese Online bhai whats ur name??  :D
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: online88 on April 11, 2015, 11:52:39 PM
Syeduzair Bhai nadeem Bhai ney kaha hey to hcar buy kar Lein, I also planning to buy on Monday hcar , prl ka Bhi nadeem Bhai ney us waqt kaha tha jab yeh 154 per tha phir 200 touch ker k wapis aya, PAEL also still good

Thanks Online and Nadeem bhai  :biggthumpup:... PRL pe mene nazar he nh dorai phle.. or akhir mai rights k hawale se kuch picture clear nh hrhi thi kyu k 1st time XR pe share price kam hone ka scene aya tha mere samne...isliye nh lia last day.... wese Online bhai whats ur name??  :D
shoaib
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on April 13, 2015, 04:45:48 PM
Hcar me ap ko 10 Bach sakte hen
uzair r j happy now hcar upper cap today do u buy hcar today
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 13, 2015, 05:08:15 PM

The Bell
 
Autos: High tide continues with March volumes up 72% YoY

Volumes rise 72% YoY
Sales of automobiles for March registered at 21,147 units, surging by a whopping 72% YoY, buoyed by supernormal growth emanating from the taxi scheme. Growth was witnessed in sales of all three major assemblers with PSMC being the outperformer as sales of ex-taxi scheme variants also posted sizable gains with its cumulative volumes rising by 117% YoY. Overall industry’s 9MFY15 volumes have risen by 23% to 123,638 units.
PSMC shifts into high gear
PSMC’s volumes for the month of March clocked in at 12,982 units. While volumes from taxi scheme remained the major impetus (Ravi +248% YoY and Bolan +171% YoY), other variants (Mehran +44% YoY, Cultus +56% YoY and Wagon R +26% MoM) also posted sizable gains. Sales of INDU remained upbeat as demand for Corolla (+53% YoY) persisted during the month as well.
Steep QoQ volumetric growth to swell earnings in 3QFY15
Volumes of the industry have considerably jacked up during 3QFY15 which will likely result in steep growth in the bottom line of the industry during the period. Consequently, with stupendous volumetric growth to guide top line expansion coupled with favorable exchange rate movement shall likely result in steep accretion in bottom line for the industry during 3QFY15.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 13, 2015, 05:11:17 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Autos_Mar’15 Review

 
According to the recently released PAMA numbers, total auto sales (cars+LCVs) for Mar’15 have been recorded at 21,147 units (+22%MoM/+72%YoY); with car sales reaching 16,806 units (+20%MoM/+63%YoY). Consequently, 9MFY15 car sales are up by 22%YoY to 105,344 units vs. 86,395 units sold in the same period last year. Amongst the local assemblers, PSMC (9MFY15 sales up 20%YoY) came out as a clear winner particularly helped by Punjab Rozgar Scheme followed by INDU (9MFY15 sales up 50%YoY). With policy rate at a multi-year low, we believe, going forward an increase in auto sales is plausible, particularly as auto financing picks up (growth of 27.3%YoY in Jan’15)  in a lower interest rate environment. PSMC & INDU remain our top picks within the auto space as they provides upside of 26% and 14% respectively.    .
Mar'15 sales review: Total auto sales (cars+LCVs) in Mar'15 have registered at 21,147 units (+22%MoM/+72%YoY) with car sales clocking in at 16,806 units (+20%MoM/+63%YoY). As a result, 9MFY15 car sales rose by 22%YoY to 105,344 units. At the same time, LCV/Pickup sales have increased up 32%YoY in 9MFY15 to 18,294 units. Tractors continued their robust performance as Mar'15 sales reached 4,769 units (+19%MoM/+59%YoY). Cumulatively, 9MFY15 tractor sales grew by 41%YoY to 33,181 units with sales for AGTL and MTL up by 45%YoY and 35%YoY, respectively.
PSMC: The company sold 12,982 units in Mar'15 (+30%MoM/+117%YoY) to bring 9MFY15 sales to 66,651 units, up by 21%YoY. As expected sales picked up momentum from Jan'15 onwards on commencement of the New Year coupled with the Punjab Rozgar Scheme. PSMC remains our preferred play within the auto space on relatively un-stretched valuations, room to grow capacity utilization (currently ~60%) & guaranteed offtake under the GoP schemes and popularity in cities. PSMC currently trades at a CY15F P/E of 6.4x where our target price of PkR498.7/share implies a Buy stance. which shields the company from risks to rural incomes due to the ongoing commodity slump.
INDU: Mar'15 sales of 5,766 units are up 14%MoM/42%YoY led by Corolla, which saw sales of 5,196 units (+17%MoM/53%YoY) following launch of the new model while, after a brilliant last month, Hilux sales came off by 13%MoM/20%YoY to 497units in the month under review. Consequently, 9MFY15 INDU's sales are higher by 50%YoY to 40,141 units. At current levels, our target price of PkR1189.4/share implies an Accumulate stance.
HCAR: The company has sold 2,364 units in Mar'15 (+5%MoM/+20%YoY) where Civic sales are up by 11%MoM/8%YoY.  Consequently, HCAR's 9MFY15 sales have registered at 16,405 units (-2%YoY), clearly losing out to INDU's Corolla.
Investment Perspective: The listed auto space has gained 84.5%FYTD vs. the KSE-100 Index's returns of 9.1% over the same period. While we acknowledge that auto shares have rallied swiftly over the last year, we believe premium valuations are justified where the next 2-3yrs can potentially result in a compelling mix of strong margins and higher volumes. Going forward, we see a general volumetric uptick complementing sustained high margins, particularly as auto financing is expected to increase (currently growing at 25%YoY). In this regard we flag PSMC as our preferred  play where the scrip provides an upside of 26% against our TP of PkR498.7/share. 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 13, 2015, 06:05:28 PM
Hcar me ap ko 10 Bach sakte hen
uzair r j happy now hcar upper cap today do u buy hcar today

no  :console: No Cash uswaqt.. BIPL baad mai uper aya....INSHALLAH will buy tommorrow... lkn HCAR,HINO dono ka lock khul gya tha aj last mai??
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: GPR on April 13, 2015, 06:19:10 PM
Y didnt psmc move today?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Irfan on April 13, 2015, 07:07:21 PM
Pakistan Automobiles
March’15 witnesses continued growth

Automobile sales rose to 26k units in March’15 against 16k units recorded in March’14 (69%YoY), taking 9MFY15 sales to 159k units, up 26% YoY. We attribute the ongoing growth momentum to healthy volumes in the passenger cars/LCV segment (up 72% YoY), and tractor segment (up 59% YoY) in March’15.

? We expect the uptrend to continue in the coming months, particularly driven by 1) Rozgar scheme and unwavering consumer interest in the new model of Corolla and 2) expected launch of new models by INDU and PSMC in FY16. Impact

Automobiles sales up 26% YoY in 9MFY15: During March’15, total automobile sales 69% YoY primarily due to 59% YoY growth in passenger cars/LCV and tractors segment. In 9MFY15, the cumulative sales stood at 26% YoY (159k units).

Passenger cars &LCV segment up 72% YoY: Major support to volumetric growth came from the Passenger cars & LCV segment which recorded impressive growth of 72%YoY to 21k units in March’15. This is primarily explained by 53% YoY growth recorded in Corolla and 206% YoY increase in Ravi and Bolan put together. The YoY growth in the two is attributable to the recently launched Rozgar scheme. Cumulative sales of the sector stood at 23% YoY in 9MFY15.
Strong demand in tractor segment continues: The tractor segment posted YoY increase of 59% in Mar’15 to 5k units, owing to lower base effect. To recall, tractors were subject to higher taxes last year. Over 9MFY15, the segment posted a robust increase of 37% YoY to 33k units. Al-Ghazi contributed considerably to the volumetric increase, as it recorded 37% MoM growth, while Millat’s volumes grew 6% MoM.
Player wise comparison: Amongst the players, INDU recorded 42% YoY growth in March’15, with primary growth coming from Corolla. The new model continues to enjoy strong patronage as it booked 53% YoY increase. In 9MFY15, the company booked 50% YoY growth (40k units). Overall performance of Suzuki remained strong, up 117% YoY in March’15. While this is primarily due to 206% YoY growth in its LCV segment, 56% YoY growth in Cultus provided added boost. In 9MFY15, the company recorded 20% YoY growth (67k units).

 On the other hand, Honda staged weak performance with 9MFY15 volumes clocking in a decline of 2% YoY. However, YoY growth remained encouraging at 20% in March’15.
Outlook
We foresee demand to continue , based on 1) strong demand for Corolla’s new model and Rozgar scheme and 2) expected launch of new models by INDU and PSMC as indicated in the newsflow. The former intends to introduce Yaris as a new addition, while the latter is to replace Cultus with Celerio in FY16. However, clarity on the upcoming Auto Policy is awaited to form a concrete view on the sector.

FS Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 15, 2015, 03:44:43 PM
which auto companies use General Tyres?? i think every Toyota comes with General tyres..sahi??

General tyre ka result kesa expected hai itni achi auto sales k baad??
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on April 15, 2015, 06:56:29 PM
which auto companies use General Tyres?? i think every Toyota comes with General tyres..sahi??

General tyre ka result kesa expected hai itni achi auto sales k baad??

Sahi, result depending upon the sale price to assemblers this quarter, if they happened to retain the price

result certainly will be good
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: GPR on April 15, 2015, 08:25:44 PM
Why is psmc so slow even after a big increase in sales?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on April 15, 2015, 11:05:42 PM
Why is psmc so slow even after a big increase in sales?

Yes that is what confusing me since 13th

Because of psmc movement made me think twice to go bullish in auto's

May be there is some confusion/negativity for auto sector in upcoming auto policy otherwise with the

numbers PSMC should have flown
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on April 19, 2015, 11:39:02 AM
Duty will be reduced on imported cars.................. :thumbsdown_anim:

http://e.dunya.com.pk/detail.php?date=2015-04-19&edition=LHR&id=1655411_62320926
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ksenewb on April 19, 2015, 06:09:29 PM
Duty will be reduced on imported cars.................. :thumbsdown_anim:

http://e.dunya.com.pk/detail.php?date=2015-04-19&edition=LHR&id=1655411_62320926

Excellent, good opportunity to buy on dips.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: The_Dot on April 19, 2015, 08:23:02 PM
If duty is reduced on imported cars, then it will be negative for local assemblers.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 23, 2015, 03:49:57 PM
Seniors GTYR n MTL ka kia karun.. dono ne acha result post kia magar apni jagah pe itkay hain...hold rakhun ya nikal dun??

HCAR n HINO to hold hai result tk mere pass.. PSMC b kal nikal dun shayad result k baad.. q k jis tarah GTYR n MTL ka haal hai wese b uska na ho kahin
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: baapofstock on April 24, 2015, 12:06:04 AM
HCAR is heading toward 350+ this year....
buy as much bcoz reward will be vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvbiggggggggggggggggggggggggggg (IA)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: syeduzair on April 24, 2015, 02:42:15 PM
Auto Sector on Rock n Roll after GHNL n PSMC result  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: aleeimran on May 07, 2015, 02:13:12 AM
Auto sector records growth of 30% in Jan-May

KARACHI: The three auto companies of the country have shown phenomenal growth of 30% against just a 4% gain in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-Index during the first five months (Jan-May) of calendar year 2015.

While all three companies posted a double digit growth in share price, the highest jump was seen in Indus Motor Company, the makers of Toyota Corolla, which posted astounding gains of 41% calendar year to-date (CYTD).

The other two companies, Honda Atlas Cars and Pak Suzuki Motor rallied 21% and 19%, respectively, in the period under review. The fundamental reason for price run can be attributed to volumetric growth and expansion in gross margins, according to Global Research said on Tuesday.

During the first quarter (Jan-Mar) of calendar year 2015, Indus registered earning growth of 239% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs3.28 billion. Pak Suzuki’s profitability surged by 114% YoY to Rs946 million.

“Moreover, we estimate Honda Atlas Cars earnings to follow the same suit, and is expected to report earnings growth of 70% YoY to Rs1.07 billion,” the report added.

For fiscal year (Jul-Jun) 2014-15, the report estimated domestic car sales (including PV & LCV) to grow by 31% YoY to 179,231 units primarily due to the success of the new Corolla and deliveries of LCVs under Punjab’s Apna Rozgar Scheme from second half of fiscal year 2015.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 6th,  2015.

Like Business on Facebook, follow @TribuneBiz on Twitter to stay informed and join in the conversation.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 13, 2015, 05:58:57 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Auto: Apr'15 tell a different story

 
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has released auto numbers for Apr'15. According to the data, overall industry volumes (Cars + LCVs) grew by 33.3%YoY in 10MFY15 to stand at 135,866 units where on MoM basis a decrease of 9% was recorded (19,176 units sold in Apr'15). PSMC recorded sequential sales decline in Apr'15, down 16%MoM to 10,956 units, driven by 16%MoM decline in sales of Cultus and Mehran. Conversely, INDU sales growth during the same period was realized at 1.2%MoM as the company sold 5,837 units led by continuous growth of its flagship product, Corolla (up 4%MoM). HCAR on the other hand showed marginal growth of 0.5% MoM, selling 2,376 units in Apr'15, as Civic sales dropped by 7%MoM to 743 units. Having outperformed the market by 22% CYTD, auto sector has been in the limelight on account of improving fundamental outlook where healthy volumetric growth and margin expansion have been the key driving factors. In the listed auto space, we continue our preference for PSMC (TP: PkR500, upside: 19%) and INDU (TP: PkR1,242, upside: 9%).
PSMC: Having sold 10,956 units in Apr'15, PSMC recorded sequential sales decline in Apr'15 (down 16%MoM). Apart from Wagon R that grew by 7%MoM, the rest of the variants saw a volumetric sales decline. In this regard, sales of Bolan and Ravi (both under Apna Rozgar scheme) decreased by12%MoM while Cultus volumes went down by a massive 44%MoM (possibly on cannibalization by Wagon R). Going forward, PSMC continues to be our top pick in the sector with promised volumes and improving margins where our TP of PkR500/sh offers an upside of 19%.
INDU: INDU sold 5,837 units in Apr'15, up 1%MoM/105%YoY, led by Corolla sales that grew by 4%MoM/104%YoY to 5,412 units. While Hilux and Fortuner continued to be a drag on overall sales, registering a sequential decline of 28% and 8%, respectively. We have an Accumulate stance on the stock where we believe sustainability in 3QFY15 margins of 17% can make a case for upward revision.
HCAR: On account of tough competition from the Corolla variant, HCAR was able to record muted sales growth of 0.5%MoM/6%YoY at 2,376 units in Apr'15. In this regard, Civic sales dropped by 7%MoM while City sales improved 4%MoM to 743 and 1,633 units respectively.
Tractors: Total tractor sales grew by 1%YoY to 1,572 units in Apr'15. On a sequential basis, MTL came out as a clear winner, recording sales growth of 34% MoM to 3,456 units, whereas AGTL recorded a 23%MoM decline to stand at 1,572 units in the month under review. Going forward, with possible positive budgetary developments to either subsidize tractors or initiate any tractor scheme, we believe tractor sales may tend to benefit significantly.         .
Investment Perspective & Outlook: We maintain our Market Weight stance on the Auto Sector, which has gained a massive 23%CYTD, outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 22%. While volumes continue to show strength, we believe margin expansion on account of lower steel prices and favorable currency movements will continue to dictate the sector's performance. At current levels, we have an Accumulate stance on both PSMC (TP of PkR500/share offering 19% upside) and INDU (TP of PkR1,242/share offering 7% upside).
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 13, 2015, 06:00:03 PM
The Bell
 
Autos: 1300cc segment and Rozgar scheme variants led the charge

1300cc segment and Rozgar scheme variants led the charge
Automobile sales for the month of April-15 continued with its bull momentum as volumes rose by 58% YoY to 19,176 units during the month. Primary growth drivers during the month remained the 1300cc segment (+62% YoY) and Rozgar scheme variants (Ravi+176% YoY; Bolan+182% YoY). Cumulative volumes in 10MFY15 for the industry have spiked up by 27% YoY to 142,814 units.
INDU & PSMC witnessing a purple patch
Not only have the volumes of both INDU & PSMC accelerated in FY15, the sharp price run up has resulted in INDU being upgraded from MSCI Small Cap index to the main MSCI FM Index, while PSMC has been added to the MSCI Small Cap index.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 07, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
(http://puu.sh/ig3xd/1ba1a1fa9d.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Just Another Guy on June 08, 2015, 01:54:10 AM
(http://puu.sh/ig3xd/1ba1a1fa9d.png)

Please share the duty difference in hybrid segment cc wise
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on June 10, 2015, 04:33:37 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/900797/breaking-monopoly-volkswagen-to-plant-its-feet-in-pakistan/

The Volkswagen is said to be engaged in negotiations with prospective local partners, said Pakistani officials.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on June 10, 2015, 04:53:22 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/900797/breaking-monopoly-volkswagen-to-plant-its-feet-in-pakistan/

The Volkswagen is said to be engaged in negotiations with prospective local partners, said Pakistani officials.
if its a success..... it has to be linked with ganja's sugar mill in india.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 10, 2015, 09:25:57 PM
Breaking monopoly: Volkswagen to plant its feet in Pakistan

14-member German delega¬tion expect¬ed to hold talks, Pakist¬ani offici¬als keen on having Europe¬an carmak¬er.

The incumbent government has gotten a rare opportunity to break the decades’ old monopoly of local car assemblers as world-renowned auto manufacturer, Volkswagen, is keen to introduce its brands in Pakistan.
Germany’s biggest and the world’s second largest automobile manufacturer in terms of market share, Volkswagen, wants to do business in Pakistan, said an official of the Board of Investment (BoI).
A 14-member business delegation of Germany businessmen is visiting Pakistan including representatives of automobile company, Volkswagen, said Dr Cyrill Nunn, German Ambassador to Pakistan on Tuesday. He was addressing a press conference to share details of what he described as a “highly important” visit.
According to Pakistani officials, Volkswagen was keen to do business and the government also wanted at least one European brand to set up a plant in the country to break the monopoly of local car assemblers. They said the three local assemblers have colluded and resultantly, on average, a locally-assembled car is roughly Rs500,000 expensive.
In allowing the new manufacturer to set up plants, the government has to amend its existing automobile policy, said Pakistani officials. They added that the government has decided, in principle, to amend the automobile policy and will add medium-knocked down (MKD) units in the definition. The German officials had requested the government to accommodate semi-knocked down and MKD units in the automobile category.
The Volkswagen is said to be engaged in negotiations with prospective local partners, said Pakistani officials.
In the next two years, the government will try to introduce at least one European brand – German or Italian – said Miftah Ismail, BoI chairman, while talking to The Express Tribune. Ismail welcomed the German delegation, hoping that it will help strengthen bilateral economic ties.
“To get such a delegation into Pakistan, you have to persuade them and once they are in Pakistan they realise it’s a huge country,” said Dr Nunn.
Other areas of interest
Meanwhile, a multi-billion Euro energy giant, Voith, is also part of the business delegation. The company has won the contract for providing machinery and equipment for Dasu Hydropower Project and is now eying the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. Companies dealing in consumer goods and transportation are also part of the delegation, said the ambassador.
The delegation will hold meetings with Minister for Commerce, BoI, Chief Minister Punjab, besides meeting the business community leaders in Karachi.
The visiting delegation will be keen to know the steps the government was taking for economic reforms, reducing energy shortages and investment opportunities in Pakistan, said Dr Nunn.
Dr Nunn said that Pakistan’s decision to allocate funds for Diamer-Bhasha dam and two Liquefied Natural Gas-fired power plants in the new budget offers business opportunities and German companies will be bidding for these projects.
In 2014, Pakistan’s exports to Germany went up by 20% on the back of the Generalised System of Preference Plus scheme, said the ambassador. However, Germany’s exports to Pakistan plunged by 3.2% and this is also a reason behind the delegation’s visit, said the ambassador.
“The volume of bilateral trade, currently standing at €2.1 billion, is far less than the potential and even lower than Germany’s trade with countries like Bangladesh,” said Dr Nunn.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 11, 2015, 06:13:37 PM

The Bell
 
Autos: Purple patch continues

Cumulative volumes rise 30%
Volumetric sales for the month of May clocked in at 19,337 units, up 59% YoY but flat (+1%) on MoM basis. Growth in volumes continued to stem from increased Corolla sales and incremental units dispatched under ‘Apna Rogar’ scheme. On a cumulative basis, volumes are up by 30% to 162,151 units.
Bull Run continues in INDU and PSMC
Volumes of INDU remained upbeat during the month with total volumes rising by 89% YoY to 5,507 units as momentum from new Corolla (+106% YoY) variant persisted along. PSMC’s taxi scheme variants Ravi (+167% YoY) and Bolan (+134%) led the charge with both variants cumulatively contributing 86% to the volumetric growth. Cultus variant posted sizable gain of 37% YoY while volumes of Mehran were up 13% YoY.
FY16 Budget; a non event for the sector
FY16 budget which was keenly awaited by market participants turned out to be a non event for the auto sector as duty structure for assembly and imported used vehicles remained unchanged. Auto Development Policy (ADP II) which expired in 2012 and is long due, is expected to address the demands of various industry stakeholders and would determine the long term direction of this sector.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: naumaan on June 17, 2015, 10:11:29 AM
Punjab, Sindh allocated huge subsidies for 55000 tractors

The tractors industry of the country will get another boost after Sindh and Punjab, the two provinces with the strongest agriculture base, have announced schemes in their budget for fiscal year 2015-16, marking collective subsidy for about 55,000 tractors.
The Punjab government allocated Rs5 billion for the distribution of 25,000 tractors, while the Sindh government marked 29,089 tractors at a subsidy of Rs200,000 to Rs300,000 on each unit. This means a total of 54,089 tractors would be made available at subsidised rates.

http://nation.com.pk/business/17-Jun-2015/punjab-sindh-allocated-huge-subsidies-for-55-000-tractors
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 26, 2015, 08:30:01 AM
Bad news for auto sector

http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1102925033&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20150626
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Afzal on June 29, 2015, 09:08:42 AM
Honda ka notice nahi liya.........

means HCar is good....now PSMC nd INDU should come down .... HCAR should go up  :tongue:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 03, 2015, 07:13:47 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/913854/auto-industry-in-flood-of-imports-players-want-dam-of-protection/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on July 09, 2015, 10:10:05 PM

Gear Up!

Answering the questions in Senate, he said the existing three automobile manufacturers would also be offered 35 percent duty exemptions for two years, if they introduce new and innovative brands.

The new automobile policy would be submitted to the next cabinet meeting for approval. The main thrust is to encourage new manufacturers to start functioning in the country.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on July 10, 2015, 04:36:16 AM

Gear Up!

Answering the questions in Senate, he said the existing three automobile manufacturers would also be offered 35 percent duty exemptions for two years, if they introduce new and innovative brands.

The new automobile policy would be submitted to the next cabinet meeting for approval. The main thrust is to encourage new manufacturers to start functioning in the country.

i hope new and innovative doesnt mean changing mehran's bumper and calling it fx  :skeptic:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Cheetah on July 10, 2015, 04:39:09 AM

Gear Up!

Answering the questions in Senate, he said the existing three automobile manufacturers would also be offered 35 percent duty exemptions for two years, if they introduce new and innovative brands.

The new automobile policy would be submitted to the next cabinet meeting for approval. The main thrust is to encourage new manufacturers to start functioning in the country.

i hope new and innovative doesnt mean changing mehran's bumper and calling it fx  :skeptic:

also the headlights :p
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: hasnain0099 on July 10, 2015, 10:39:06 PM
Sector Outlook & PAMA Data
 
Passionate Drive: FY15 Auto car sales up 31% to 180k units
 
· Pakistan locally made Passenger Car sales (including LCVs and Jeeps) improved by 31% YoY to 179,953 units in FY15, since INDU and PSMC witnessed considerable volumetric accretion along with the stable sales by HCAR.
 
· In Jun’15, Passenger Car sales has remained at 17,802 units, up 47% YoY. We attribute the acceleration to 2.6 times higher INDU sales to 5,458 units and 27% more PSMC sales to 9,795 units. However, on a month on month basis, car sales witnessed a drop of 8%.
 
· Country tractors sales have also escalated by 39% to 46,800 units, thanks to lower GST effective from July’14. In June’15, tractor sales remained at 4,016 units, down 9% MoM but up 131% YoY.
 
· Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) sales also expanded by 44% to 4,680 units in FY15. Within HCVs, truck sales improved by 54% to 4,111 trucks while buses sales remained stable at 569 buses in FY15 vs. 577 vehicles in FY14. In Jun’15, HCV sales are up 22% YoY and 13% MoM to 584 units.
 
· We assert auto sales to remain tenacious in coming months owing to taxi sales by PSMC, buildup of INDU’s order book and recovering HCAR sales. Further, FY16 volumes might speedup to a level of 199k units on account of improving GDP outlook, rising income levels and lower financing cost in addition to banks’ expected focus on high-return consumer financing.
 
· Tractor sales are also likely to improve due to recently announced agriculture relief measures including subsidized tractor scheme by the Govt in the Federal budget. For FY16, we expect total tractors sales to remain 60-65k units assuming 50% implementation of Govt schemes.
 

Research
Taurus Securities Limited
A subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan
UAN: 111-828-787
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: hasanali on July 10, 2015, 11:00:48 PM
what is about  of Mtl & Agtl
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 11, 2015, 03:16:55 AM
Fiscal year 2014-15: Growth of local car sales soars to five-year high
Amount¬s to 179,953 units compar¬ed to 136,888 units in 2014.

KARACHI: Local car sales in the country have registered a growth of 31% year-on-year – highest in the last five years – and touched 179,953 units in fiscal year 2015 compared to 136,888 units in the same period previous year.

This improvement was better than the 1% growth in fiscal year 2014 and surpassed the 5-year (FY11-15) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3%.

Local vehicle sales (including light commercial vehicles (LCVs), vans and jeeps) increased due to Toyota Corolla’s new model, taxi scheme by Punjab government, rising consumer sector dynamics and an increase in car financing due to the 42-year low interest rate in the country, Topline Securities reported on Friday.
It is important to note that imports of used cars are still hovering around 25,000-30,000 units per annum. The imports make around 15% of car sales in Pakistan.
In fiscal year 2016, Topline estimates that the locally assembled car sales will grow by 13% to 203,653 units.

Tractor segment also posted a healthy growth of 39% year-on-year during the outgoing fiscal year 2015 to reach 46,800 units, primarily due to reduction in General Sales Tax (GST) from 16% to 10%, announced in Federal Budget FY15. This compares favorably with -34% growth in FY14 and 5-year (FY11-15) CAGR of -9.3%.

Subsidy schemes that include 25,000 tractors by Punjab government and 29,000 tractors by Sindh government will further boost growth momentum in tractors volumes, the report said. The volumetric growth coupled with weak yen against the dollar will have a positive impact on the profitability of the auto sector.

Pak Suzuki Motors
During fiscal year 2015, Pak Suzuki sales rose to 98,879 units, up 27% year-on-year because of the invoicing of cabs under the ‘Taxi scheme’. “We are expecting that PSMC will sell around 30,000-35,000 units under the taxi scheme in fiscal year 2016 and order of 50,000 units will be completed in the first half (Jul-Dec) of 2017,” the report said, adding that the volumes of the company may grow by 24% in fiscal year 2016 to reach at 122,617 units.

Indus Motor
Indus Motors achieved its highest ever sales since the inception of the company by selling 56,943 units in fiscal year 2015, up 67% year on year. It is important to note that the company’s annual production capacity is 54,800 units so company achieved these levels through debottlenecking and working on alternate Saturdays.

This phenomenal increase is due to Toyota’s new Corolla model, which is still sold out for the next three to four months, according to sources in the industry, the report said.

Honda Cars
The sales of Honda Atlas Cars have remained stable at 23,622 units in fiscal year 2015 compared to 23,674 units last year. It is important to note that the company maintained its sales growth despite the new model of Toyota Corolla launched by its competitor Indus Motors. This indicates that overall market size of Pakistan automobile sector is growing.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 11th, 2015.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 13, 2015, 07:15:58 PM
Automobile Assembler: Auto sales grow by 31% YoY in FY15; Latest numbers from PAMA for Jun-15 show a MoM decline across all segments, which is typical as sales begin to normalize midway into the calendar year. Looking at FY15 numbers though is encouraging, as sales of Total Cars and LCVs increased 31% YoY, due to the 1300cc & above and LCV’s segments, which posted YoY growths of 35% and 59%, respectively. This was mainly due to the growth in Corolla sales (new model launch) and the Punjab government’s taxi scheme (Bolan and Ravi, 25,000 units each).

Sales in FY16 to hold steady, we expect, with marginal upticks across segments: For FY16, we expect sales to hold firm across all major categories, with improvements in LCVs, 1000cc and below 1000cc segments, due to continuation of the Taxi scheme (LCVs) and the impact of auto financing in low policy rate scenario (lowest in 4 decades). Moreover, auto financing as per SBP data, is at its highest in Apr-15 (at PKR 79bn), since May-09, a high of nearly six years, with a continuously increasing MoM trend since Jul-12 (PKR 45bn).

PSMC: Recorded impressive 27% YoY growth, boosted by Taxi Scheme: PSMC showed robust YoY growth of 27%, spurred by Bolan & Ravi variants, growing by 67% & 84%, respectively, as both were recipients of the taxi scheme. Also, Wagon-R sales more than tripled in FY15, however that was mainly due to launch in Apr-14. Nevertheless, with the price cut in Jan-15, sales recorded a healthy uptick, slowing only in Jun-15 (21% MoM). We see Mehran sales increasing in FY16, due to auto financing factor, with flattish sales of Cultus and Swift, with the Cultus being eventually replaced by the Celerio in 2016- 17 (as per channel checks) to prop up sales in the 1000cc category.

AHL
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 13, 2015, 07:16:34 PM
Autos: June sales up 47% YoY, GHNI on top Auto sales in June 2015 clocked in 47% YoY higher at 17.8k units, led by (1) 264% YoY higher unit sales by Indus Motor Company (INDU) on the back of strong 386% YoY growth in Corolla sales and (2) concessionary cab scheme driven 27% YoY growth in Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) unit sales. Excluding the concessionary cab scheme, we estimate June 2015 auto sales clocked in at around +22% YoY with PSMC sales declining by 12% YoY. On a MoM basis, auto sales dropped by 8% which we believe is due to slowdown in cab scheme sales (approx. -23% MoM) as PSMC sales declined by 15% MoM.

Ghandhara Industries (GHNI) stood out amongst others with sales in June 2015 surging by 101% YoY and 108% MoM. As a result, overall auto sales registered a 7-year high, clocking in at 179.95k units in FY15 vis-à-vis 136.89k units in FY14 (+31% YoY), where exconcessionary cab scheme growth is estimated at ~20% YoY.

Reiterate Market Weight as positives mostly priced in We reiterate ‘Market-Weight’ stance on the sector. We believe the sector is likely to gain from the upcoming AIDP-2 policy; however, the timing of the announcement remains unclear. We keep our ‘Hold’ call intact on both PSMC and INDU.

JS
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 13, 2015, 07:17:08 PM
As per the recent numbers released by the Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association (PAMA), the automobile industry sales stood at 17,741 units in Jun’15 as compared to 11,913 units in Jun’14, depicting a growth of 49%YoY. On a MoM basis, industry numbers declined by 8% primarily due to a slowdown in PSMC’s sales. On a quarterly basis, the industry sales clocked in at 56,247 units in 4QFY15, up 2%MoM/55%YoY. INDU remained the prime performer during the month with a growth of 3.6xYoY led by robust sales of Corolla, up by whopping 5.0xYoY. We believe, the industry sales figures are likely to normalize in FY16 in the wake of lower sales from Corrolla. That said, all time lower DR coupled with improving consumer income will potentially boost auto financing and thus will strengthen industry sales. Furthermore, the AIDP?II yet again seems around the corner, which apparently favors the profitability of the existing players in the short term however; it may pose some challenges in terms of increased competition from new entrants. At current levels, we reiterate our preference for AGTL with a target price of PKR596/sh, offering a total return of 32%from last close.

INDU; euphoria fading away: The company’s sales for the month of Jun’15 clocked in at 5,458 units as opposed to 1,499 units in the same month last year, up 3.64xYoY. However, on a MoM basis numbers declined 0.9% due to normalizing sales of Corolla where we expect numbers to average at current levels (~4,700) for FY16. Hilux showed an impressive move with a growth of 58%MoM/31%aYoY, primarily due to deliverables of fleet orders. On 4QFY15 quarterly basis, numbers took a dip on a QoQ basis by ~2.5% however, were up 131% on a YoY basis.

PSMC; seasonal adjustment: The sales numbers for PSMC failed to impress in Jun’15 which clocked in at 9,795 units as against 11,477 in the preceding month, representing a decline of 15%MoM. The decline was primarily on the back of deferred buying as consumers expected a reduction in advance taxation under the budget, we believe. The numbers however, remained firm on 4QFY15 basis with a 7%QoQ/46%YoY growth in sales mainly backed by the Apna Rogar Scheme.

BMA
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on August 07, 2015, 11:51:27 AM
seniors plz check, there were links previously that in current budget gov has reduced import duties of cars, cuz local assemblers were not making cars as per international standards.
now there is a new on Pak wheels that so called reduction in duties was just a hoax and no such thing has happened, PPL were falsely lead to believe that duties have been lowered and many have already import cars which are standing at port to be cleared with old schedule.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 07, 2015, 12:01:06 PM
Govt likely to continue allowing import of used cars

ECC to approv¬e new policy in upcomi¬ng meetin¬g, offer incent¬ives to new player¬s
The government has not shown any intention to give in to the lobbying of key players in the automobile industry and is planning to continue allowing the import of used cars in the proposed new policy in an attempt to break the monopoly of existing players.

The industry had pressed the government to ban the import of used cars, but the demand was turned down, say officials.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) is expected to approve the new policy in its upcoming meeting.
Talking to The Express Tribune, Privatisation Commission Chairman Mohammad Zubair, who played a key role in drafting the policy, said the document would be tabled before the ECC and it would carry incentives for the new investors to create a level playing field.

He stressed that the country would continue to import used cars as millions of people were associated directly or indirectly with this trade and “we do not want to take any step that could hurt employment.”
The ECC, in its meeting on October 12, 2014, had decided to offer tariff protection for five to seven years to new entrants to the auto industry in order to break the monopoly of existing players, who were still counting on obsolete technology and selling vehicles at high prices.

The committee noticed that despite getting incentives from the government, the car assemblers were demanding high prices from the consumers.

The assemblers were also earning hefty profits on the advance deposited by consumers before the delivery of cars. The ECC was told that the automobile industry had not been showing any growth for the past many years and had even recorded negative growth notwithstanding the fact that it had got a host of incentives.
On the ECC’s directive, the Ministry of Industries and Production and the Engineering Development Board had started work on a policy that would offer incentives to the new players, create competition and lead to a decline in vehicle prices.

According to officials aware of the development, a committee constituted by the ECC had reviewed different proposals for giving the incentives.

It considered imposing reduced import duties at 10%, 15% and 20% on localised and non-localised parts of completely knocked down (CKD) kits as an incentive to encourage investment and competition. Later, an agreement was reached for 10% duty and a final decision will be taken by the ECC. This protection is proposed to be given to the new entrants for five years.

At present, the import duty on non-localised parts, which are not manufactured in the country, is 32.5% and on localised parts it is 50%.

Currently, the vendors or vehicle assemblers manufacturing spare parts themselves are allowed import of raw material, sub-components, components and sub-assemblies at 0, 5, 10 and 20% duty respectively.
However, the government is planning to bring all these categories under a single title and introduce a uniform rate of duty. This will facilitate the industry and give a boost to its operations, officials say.
It has been noticed that not a single car manufacturer has been able to complete the deletion programme even after extension in the deadline. The government is expected to set up a technology support fund, with the help of industry players, which will help bring new technology in the sector.

The new policy also proposes that Pakistan should become a member of the UNECE World Forum for Harmonisation of Vehicle Regulations in order to promote vehicle safety. The forum allows the introduction of innovative vehicle technologies with a continuous improvement in vehicle safety.

It calls for reducing environmental pollution and energy consumption as well as improving anti-theft capabilities.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 7th,  2015.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: RazaNaqvi on August 07, 2015, 12:01:44 PM
seniors plz check, there were links previously that in current budget gov has reduced import duties of cars, cuz local assemblers were not making cars as per international standards.
now there is a new on Pak wheels that so called reduction in duties was just a hoax and no such thing has happened, PPL were falsely lead to believe that duties have been lowered and many have already import cars which are standing at port to be cleared with old schedule.

what does it mean regarding psmc
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on August 07, 2015, 12:17:52 PM
seniors plz check, there were links previously that in current budget gov has reduced import duties of cars, cuz local assemblers were not making cars as per international standards.
now there is a new on Pak wheels that so called reduction in duties was just a hoax and no such thing has happened, PPL were falsely lead to believe that duties have been lowered and many have already import cars which are standing at port to be cleared with old schedule.

what does it mean regarding psmc

panic kis baat ki hai?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on August 07, 2015, 12:56:09 PM
seniors plz check, there were links previously that in current budget gov has reduced import duties of cars, cuz local assemblers were not making cars as per international standards.
now there is a new on Pak wheels that so called reduction in duties was just a hoax and no such thing has happened, PPL were falsely lead to believe that duties have been lowered and many have already import cars which are standing at port to be cleared with old schedule.

what does it mean regarding psmc

panic kis baat ki hai?
not panic now for psmc..... now psmc lodian dal rahi hai..... reduction in imported vehicle duties where told in current budget cuz local assembler were making cars like toilet paper.... politicians need tanks..... so import duties were significantly reduced and would stay reduced until local assembler make their cars upto international standard...... yesterday someone told me bhai koi kami nahi howi.... agar hoti mein sab se pehlay meinay import karni thi car..... i checked the custom tarriff there is no change there.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on August 07, 2015, 05:05:19 PM
seniors plz check, there were links previously that in current budget gov has reduced import duties of cars, cuz local assemblers were not making cars as per international standards.
now there is a new on Pak wheels that so called reduction in duties was just a hoax and no such thing has happened, PPL were falsely lead to believe that duties have been lowered and many have already import cars which are standing at port to be cleared with old schedule.

what does it mean regarding psmc

panic kis baat ki hai?
not panic now for psmc..... now psmc lodian dal rahi hai..... reduction in imported vehicle duties where told in current budget cuz local assembler were making cars like toilet paper.... politicians need tanks..... so import duties were significantly reduced and would stay reduced until local assembler make their cars upto international standard...... yesterday someone told me bhai koi kami nahi howi.... agar hoti mein sab se pehlay meinay import karni thi car..... i checked the custom tarriff there is no change there.
its confirmed..... there have a massive bribe to government official to withdraw the duty reduction in current budget..... it was shown in news papers etc but officially .... mati dal di gai hai is pe...... local assemblers are gonna rock again. PSMC & HONDA monopoly won again.
verified by a custom official in karachi by paying him bribe of course.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Cheetah on August 11, 2015, 09:29:29 PM
July 2015 car sales
PSMC -3%MoM/119%YoY (9464 units)
INDU -22%MoM/285%YoY (4259 units)
HCAR -12%MoM/45%YoY (2181 units)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 12, 2015, 07:09:19 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Autos: July’15 Review,

 
As per the recently released figures by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Pakistan's auto industry sales decreased by 11%MoM to 15.9k units in July'15 against 17.8k units sold in Jun'15. Major contribution in this decline came from INDU as the company sold 4.2k (-22%MoM) units followed by 2.18k (-12%MoM) units which HCAR managed to sell and 9.4k (-3%MoM) units by PSMC. In addition to cars, Tractor sales were recorded at 1.6k units, down by 59%MoM with MTL selling 743 units (-71%MoM) and 820 units (-40%MoM) sold by AGTL.
 
PSMC: The company recorded volumetric sales of 9,464 units in Jul'15, up by 119%YoY but down 3%MoM. All the variants excluding Swift (up by 15%MoM) & Mehran (up by 13%MoM) recorded substantial sales decline on a MoM basis. Specifically Ravi (2,502 units, -3%MoM), Bolan (2,546 units, -15%MoM) and Cultus (970 units, -11%MoM). At current levels, PSMC provides 13% upside to our Dec'15 target price of PkR542/share.
 
INDU: The company posted sales of 4,259 units in period under consideration, up 285%YoY but down 22%MoM. Sales volumes of Corolla were at 3,868 units up by 475%YoY. However, the company could not manage to sustain sales volumes of Fortuner (56 units, +4%MoM/-20%YoY) and Hilux (335 units, -51%MoM/8%YoY). At current levels, we have a Neutral stance on INDU with our Dec'15 target price of PkR1,264/share.
 
HCAR: Honda registered sales of 2,181 units up 45%YoY, lowered down by 12%MoM. The company sold 610 units of Civic (-11%MoM/-3%YoY) and 1,571 units of City (-13%MoM/+80%YoY).
 
Tractors: Industry sales recorded a decline of 41%YoY to post volumes of 1,634 units. Sales of MTL and AGTL in Jul'15 were 743 units (-56%YoY) and 820 units (-22%YoY), respectively.
 
Investment Perspective: FY16 has gotten off on the wrong foot for Pakistan's auto sector sales as Jul'15 figures are down 11%MoM. This marks the second consecutive month of decline from a high of 19.3k units sold in May'15. That said, marked improvement has been witnessed in 7MCY15 as cumulative industry car sales of 128.43k units are up 55%YoY vs. 82.5k units sold in 7MCY14. The sector's sales are still far from dry land however as the impact of floods still looms large. Floods in Pakistan over the course of past 5 years have proven to bring with themselves tough times for local Auto manufacturers. A historical analysis reveals that in the last 5 years local auto sales diminished by average ~15%QoQ in the Jul-Sep quarter. With all this yet to be priced in, we believe any negative surprises in the upcoming auto policy will bring some level of pessimism within the auto sector space and will provide investors with an opportunity to build-up fresh positions at dips.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on August 14, 2015, 03:02:42 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/937744/proposed-automobile-policy-mkd-units-included-same-tax-incentives-for-new-and-old-players/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on August 14, 2015, 03:20:32 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/937744/proposed-automobile-policy-mkd-units-included-same-tax-incentives-for-new-and-old-players/
that was bound to happen since they withdrew on duty reduction on import of cars. BEEERRRIIIIBEEE IT
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: shafi on August 14, 2015, 07:37:05 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/937744/proposed-automobile-policy-mkd-units-included-same-tax-incentives-for-new-and-old-players/
that was bound to happen since they withdrew on duty reduction on import of cars. BEEERRRIIIIBEEE IT

psmc ma entry banti ha es news k bad ??
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on August 15, 2015, 02:08:19 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/937744/proposed-automobile-policy-mkd-units-included-same-tax-incentives-for-new-and-old-players/
that was bound to happen since they withdrew on duty reduction on import of cars. BEEERRRIIIIBEEE IT

psmc ma entry banti ha es news k bad ??
Ab tu 150% entry banti hai.......the way they bribed to keep their monopoly.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Ali135 on August 17, 2015, 07:21:09 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/938818/auto-development-plan-govt-looks-to-enforce-global-safety-environmental-rules/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on August 22, 2015, 03:50:24 AM
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150821_JPY_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Ali135 on September 10, 2015, 01:35:57 PM
https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf (https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on September 19, 2015, 10:17:36 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/959461/auto-policy-local-industry-unimpressed-with-governments-plan/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 12, 2015, 10:37:35 PM
Pakistan Automobile: 1QFY16 car sales continue its upward trajectory
Led by taxi scheme and overall improvement in economic situation in the country, Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) have posted a 72% YoY increase in 1QFY16. During the first 3-month (Jul-Sep) FY16, local vehicle sales stood at 54,812 units versus 31,899 units in 1QFY15. It is important to note that, in Sep 2015, despite less working days due to Eid holidays, local car sales rose by 45% YoY to 18,424 units while they declined by 10% MoM. Imported cars are roughly ~15% of local assembled cars.
Tractor segment, on the other hand, posted a decline of 28% YoY during 1QFY16 to reach at 6,745 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy schemes. To recall, Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16 announced subsidy of 25,000/29,000 tractors. In the month of Sep 2015, however, some encouragement was seen as tractor sales stood at 3,096 units – up 54% MoM.
Overall healthy growth in auto sector is indicative of increase in per capita income, improved farmer economics and overall recovery of the economy. Car financing is also picking up gradually (currently estimated at 30% versus 5% few years back). To recall, car sales (excluding imported) in Pakistan grew at a 5-year (FY11-15) CAGR of 5.3% to 179,953 units while volumes surged by 31% in FY15 on the back of new model of Toyota Corolla, Taxi Scheme of Punjab Govt. and an increase in car financing due to 42-year low interest rates in the country. We forecast local car sales to grow at 13% in FY16 to reach at 203,653 units.
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC): Taxi Scheme provided support
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales increased by 98% YoY to 33,770 units in 1QFY16 primarily due to Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme.
Volumes declined by 12% Month-on-Month basis due to extended Eid holidays in Sep 2015.
We estimate profitability of PSMC to grow 139% in 2015E on the back of volumetric growth and weakening of JPY against PKR.
We maintain ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip which is trading at 2015E PE of 7.9x.
Indus Motors (INDU): New Model of Toyota Corolla is still in demand
INDU sold 14,767 units in1QFY16 compared to 9,862 units in the same quarter last year. It is pertinent to note that customers were waiting for the new model of Toyota Corolla in the same period last year which was the main reason for abnormally low base.
In the month of Sep 2015, INDU sales stood at 4,984 units which rose by 6% YoY. On MoM basis, however, following the trend in PSMC due to holidays, INDU sales decreased by 10%. Just to highlight, Toyota’s new Corolla model is sold out for next 3-4 months according to our contacts in the industry.
We estimate earnings of INDU to grow at 135% and 6% in FY15E and FY16F, respectively. We have a ‘Buy’ stance on INDU which is currently trading at FY15E PE of 8.8x.
Honda Cars (HCAR): Growing sales despite new model of competitor
HCAR sold 6,184 units in 1QFY16 compared to 4,887 units in the same period last year. In Sep 2015, HCAR sold 2,001 units who increased by 14% YoY while remained flat on Month-on-Month basis.
It is important to note that HCAR consistently posting sales growth despite the new model of Toyota Corolla launched by its competitor. This indicates that overall market size of Pakistan automobile sector is growing.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy affected sales
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their volumes during 1QFY16. Our industry sources revealed that farmers are waiting for the execution of announced subsidy schemes by Punjab and Sindh Govt.
MTL sold 4,392 units in 1QFY15 compared to 6,086 units in the same period last year. On Month-on-Month basis, MTL sales increased by 75% to 2,320 units in Sep 2015 from 1,329 units in Aug 2015.
AGTL sold 710 units in Sep 2015 compared to 1,104 units in the same month last year. On Month-on-Month basis, AGTL sales increased by 18% in Sep 2015 from 601 units in Aug 2015.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on October 13, 2015, 07:13:42 PM
AKD Daily
 
Pakistan Autos: Unprecedented growth drives value

In the recently released figures by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Pakistan's auto industry sales/production for 9MCY15 showed a substantial jump of 56%/53%YoY amounting to 167,339/165,820 units sold/produced over the period. Although slight tapering was witnesses in MoM figures (industry car sales/produced were down 10%/9%MoM), local car sales/production for 9MCY15 have already trounced the total number for CY14, and is on track to be a record year for the industry in terms of production and sales. Riding on the new model effect, the major contributor to cumulative sales/production volumes remained INDU as the company recorded 48,827/48,589units (increase of 70%YoY) followed by PSMC with 96,948/91,535units (rising by 64%YoY). As a whole, automobile sales/production grew at a 5yr CAGR of 5.2%/5.3%, reflecting healthy growth of the auto industry market. Additionally the quantum of imported CBU units (PBS data till Aug'15) climbed by 60%YoY to US$305.3mn vs. US$190.7mn in 8MCY14. We re-iterate our liking for PSMC which benefits from lower input costs and higher sales, currently trading at an appealing CY15/16F PE of 8.9x/9.5x, with 18% upside to our TP of PkR517/share.
PSMC: The company recorded volumetric sales/production of 11,389/11,469 units in Sept'15, up by 84%/66%YoY but receding by 12%/7%MoM. Cumulative sales/production volume amounted to 96,948/96,418units with the greatest gains recorded in the sales/production of Ravi (up 2.4x/2.6x) and Bolan (up 2.2x/2.4x) on the back of Punjab Rozgar Scheme. On a YoY basis, Mehran/Wagon R/Cultus sales rose by 49%/169%/31% solidifying the dominance of the OEM in the 1000cc and below segment.
INDU: The company posted sales/production of 4,984/5,024 units during Sept'15; up 6%YoY but down 6%MoM. Sales volumes of Corolla were at 4,672 units, up by only 7%YoY and falling 6%MoM as the high base effect of the new model makes incremental sales growth more arduous. On a cumulative basis 9MCY15 sales/production figures clocked in at 48,827/48,589 units growing by 1.4xYoY with growth not just from the 11th Generation Corolla (sales growth of 1.6xYoY), but also from Fortuner/Hilux (rise of 1.2x/47%YoY) variants.
HCAR: Honda registered comparatively lackluster sales of 2,001 units in Sept'15, down 20%YoY and flat over last month. Cumulative market share for the company in the 1300cc and above segment now rests at 31% vs. 39%. The company sold 540 units of Civic (-20%MoM/+1%YoY) and 1,461 units of City (0%MoM/+36%YoY).
Investment Perspective: All signs point to the industry undergoing a phase of rapid growth, with the sustainability of this phase dependent on 1) consumers availing auto financing, 2) introduction of new models and 3) the yet to be released Auto policy limiting the threat from new entrants, particularly international players with spare capacity in the region. Moreover, lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure related activity seems to have positively impacted 9MCY15 cumulative demand in the 4X4 and Pick Ups segment with overall sales in the segment rising by 108%YoY. We re-iterate our linking for PSMC which benefits from lower input costs and higher sales, dominance in key segments, and strong exposure to the growing pick-up segment. The stock currently trades at a healthy CY15/16F PE of 8.9x/9.5x, with 18% upside to our TP of PkR517/share.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 20, 2015, 07:45:38 PM
Govt is importing tractors

http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1103128504&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20151020
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: value786 on October 22, 2015, 07:51:07 PM
Any update about Indus Motors  ?

and it's board meeting ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alicima on November 05, 2015, 11:03:18 AM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1217511

Major carmakers to introduce new models next year

KARACHI: Pakistan’s auto industry landscape is expected to see some new models from next year on, with Honda introducing subcompact crossover HR-V, Suzuki replacing Cultus with Celerio, and Toyota rumoured to start local assembling of Vitz and Vios.

Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Limited will introduce HR-V — a 1,497cc completely built unit of Thailand origin — in January 2016.

Shabbir Alibhai, owner of Honda Quaideen Motors, told Dawn the company has informed its authorised dealers that the vehicle would cost around Rs3.5 million. The exact price, however, would be announced at the time of the launch based on the exchange rate.

Take a look: Pakistan yet to develop own auto standards

He said Honda has already ordered an initial lot of limited stocks. Customers would be paying an advance amount of Rs500,000 at the time of booking, and the balance one month before delivery of the vehicle.

Market sources said the carmaker also plans to unveil Honda Civic’s 2016 model, which has already been introduced in various countries, in the second half of next year. Besides, the new City model is also due for a change.

Sources said Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited is also planning to replace its flagship Suzuki Cultus with Celerio — a 1,000cc hatchback — by end-2016 or the first quarter of 2017. The company may also unveil more new models after 2016.

Local vendors, who asked not to be named, said many of their counterparts are engaged in making parts and accessories.

In 2000, Pak Suzuki introduced Cultus replacing Khyber. In its span of 15 years, Cultus enjoyed a boom period with sales of 29,837 in 2006-07 and 27,563 units in 2007-08. Its sales, however, have floundered since then, dropping to 13,837 units in FY15 from 14,682 in FY14, as buyers shifted to used cars.

At a time when vendors are already producing Celerio parts, a Pak Suzuki official requesting anonymity said: “So far there are no plans for introducing any replacement of Cultus.”

Market is also abuzz with reports that the Indus Motor Company — the makers of Toyota cars in Pakistan — also considers starting local assembly of Toyota Vitz and Toyota Vios during 2018-2020. A spokesman for the company, however, dismissed such reports as “just market rumours”.

Auto assemblers and their vendors are making new investments cautiously, fearing any policy change in favour of imported used cars followed by a long delay in the announcement of new auto policy, a leading vendor said.

“Investment in the auto sector by the local industry will pick up pace once the industry is assured of policy consistency in the long term and curbs on import of used cars”.

He said the government must also consider reducing taxes and duties on locally assembled cars. Almost 35 per cent of a vehicle’s price is comprised of taxes, he said, adding that the government receives taxes worth Rs500,000 on a Honda City priced at Rs1.5m.

He said the government plans to offer incentives to new entrants in the upcoming auto policy. “The policy must also cater to targeting investments from existing assemblers as well as auto parts manufacturers who are in a better position to expand capacity and introduce new models at affordable prices.”
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 11, 2015, 10:10:08 PM
Autos: Volumes maintain upward trajectory in Oct-15 (?54% YoY)
As per the recent published data by PAMA, automobile sales for the month of October-15 clocked in at 18,901 units; up by 54%YoY/6%MoM. In 4MFY16, cumulative volumes grew by 67%YoY, led by robust growth emanating from PSMC.
During the period under review, PSMC continued with its outperformance streak with ‘Rozgar scheme’ providing the impetus to volumes which grew by 90% YoY, while MoM basis the company witnessed a meager expansion of 7%. Apart from Rozgar scheme variants, Mehran volumes also remained robust depicting a growth of 45% during the month. On a cumulative basis, volumes of PSMC have surged by 96%YoY to 43,539 units.
INDU’s volumes remained impressive with Corolla (+20% YoY) leading the gains. Total volumes increased by 23%YoY to 5,460 units as compared to 4,425 units same period last year. While on a cumulative basis, volumes increased by 42% compared to same period last year.
HCAR volumes dropped by 6%MoM to 1,875 units, however on YoY basis the volumes accreted by 8% YoY. 4MFY15 volumes have grown by 22%YoY.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 11, 2015, 11:33:57 PM
Auto sales figure

http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 12, 2015, 08:25:09 PM
AKD Daily
 
Oct’15 Auto Numbers: Confirming our Growth Thesis

 
Monthly Automobile sales and production data is out, with 19,729 units being sold (up 7%MoM and 56%YoY) of which 15,709 automobiles (increasing 3%MoM and 40%YoY) were sold, and 4,020 LCVs (growing 25%MoM and 183%YoY) made up total offtake. Shelving of the Punjab and Sindh tractor schemes has deteriorated sales, with tractor sales for the month slipping by 22%MoM/43%YoY to 2,403 units. PSMC recorded sales of 12,338 units (up 8%MoM/99%YoY) in Oct'15, whereas sales figures for INDU for the month sales reached 5,460units (up 10%MoM/23%YoY), reflecting a sustained uptick in Corolla sales (4,912 units sold increasing 5%MoM/20%YoY). HCAR offtake numbers remained largely unexciting, with Oct'15 sales of 1,875 units (-6%MoM/+8%YoY) reflecting more of the same. As monthly numbers confirm our overall positive outlook on the sector, we maintain an ACCUMULATE stance on INDU (TP:PkR1,283, upside 15%) and FY16F D/Y of 7% while our BUY call on PSMC (TP:PkR584, 30% upside) is re-iterated.
 
PSMC: Selling 12,338 units (up 8%MoM/99%YoY) in Oct'15, allowing 10MCY15 sales to clock in at 109,286units, marking a drastic increase of 1.67xYoY, propelled from the Rozgar Scheme (Ravi/Bolan sales for 10MCY15 at 29,003/29,914units up 1.7x/1.5xYoY). Confirming our case for strong uptick in sales, Wagon R/Mehran/Cultus sales for Oct'15 grew by 26%/18%/6%MoM, taking 10MCY15 sales growth to 1.1x/19%/4%. Sales figures have marked a high water mark for the OEM, which is now exceeding all past sales figures.        .
 
INDU: Oct'15 sales reached 5,460units (up 10%MoM/23%YoY), reflecting a sustained uptick in Corolla sales (4,912 units sold increasing 5%MoM/20%YoY), re-affirming our hypothesis of annual sales of Corolla crossing last year's total. Moreover, on a consolidated basis, 10MCY15 sales for the OEM amounted to 54,287units, depicting a rise of 64%YoY, with Corolla sales being the underlying factor (49,093 units sold). The Corolla further benefitted from robust growth of 42%YoY in the 1300 and above passenger car segment where its market share remains at 65%.
 
HCAR: Muted numbers reflecting an aging product line, and the absence of external propellants have kept HCAR offtake numbers largely unexciting, with Oct'15 sales of 1,875 units (-6%MoM/+8%YoY) reflecting more of the same.10MCY15 figures show a modest increase of 14%. Market share in the 1300 and above segment now stands at 31% vs. 38% during 10MCY14.
 
Tractor Sales: Lackluster monthly numbers reflect uncertainty over tractor subsidies, and delay in purchases by farmers ahead of the upcoming Rabi harvest. Oct'15 sales amounted to 2,403 units ( down 22%MoM, 43%YoY). Clarity on phasing out of the proposed tractor subsidies in the provinces is now apparent and is expected to adversely impact sales growth, which for 10MCY15 stands at 37%YoY (12,497 units for AGTL and 24,621 units for MTL).
 
Investment Perspective: As monthly numbers confirm our positive outlook on the sector, we maintain an ACCUMULATE stance on INDU with a June'16 TP of 1,283 and FY16F D/Y of 7% while our BUY call on PSMC stands at a Dec'16 TP of 584 offering 30% upside from last close.   
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: phahad on November 12, 2015, 11:45:28 PM
PSMC rally time?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Loto or Photo on November 13, 2015, 12:02:07 AM
PSMC rally time?

INSHALLAH Feb- March target Rs:600
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: momo on November 13, 2015, 08:58:19 AM
Buy recommended in PSMC?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Sharoze123 on November 13, 2015, 11:33:36 AM
Buy recommended in PSMC?

It's a buy for me right now. But in chunks.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on November 17, 2015, 07:33:34 PM
AKD Daily
Autos: Estimate Revision on JPY and Steel price weakness

Prolonged weakness in the Yen is expected to follow, in part due to: 1) the Japanese economy exhibiting another bout of weakness (3Q GDP contracted 0.8%), 2) industrial investment declined (5% YoY) with both developments expected to keep the currency under pressure. Additionally, global steel prices remain under pressure as: 1) China extends exports of cold rolled steel products by 18%YoY leading to a slide of 25-50% in global steel prices, 2) Japanese inventory of steel product rests at 5.8mn tonnes with inventory due for exports building up (Sept'15 inventory levels gained 1.14xYoY). Amending our estimates for the AKD Auto Universe, we accommodate weakness in the JPY and steel prices in our earnings estimates for FY16/17/18 for INDU raising our estimated earnings by 2%/3%/3%, in turn raising our June'16 TP by 2% to PkR1,305, while maintaining our Accumulate stance. PSMC retains its BUY rating with earnings for CY16/17/18 being tapered by 1%/2%/2% rationalizing our Dec'16 TP to PkR580.
Weakness in the JPY to persist: In the long term, weakness in the JPY, slowdown in industrial productivity accompanied by modest wage growth is expected to keep the currency weak. Accommodating estimates from Bloomberg forecasts for JPY/US$ cross rates and AKD Research estimates for weakness in the PkR vs. US$ over the same period, we have amended earnings outlook accordingly. To gauge overall responsiveness in earnings to changes in PkR/JPY assumptions, a sensitivity analysis is given below, key takeaway from which is the relatively strong footing for INDU to swings in JPY as its flagship Corolla has a high degree of localization (~60%).
Investment Perspective: Tweaking our estimates for the AKD Auto Universe, we accommodate weakness in the JPY and steel prices in our earnings estimates for FY16F/17F/18F for INDU raising our estimated earnings by 2%/3%/3% in turn inching our June'16 TP by 2% to PkR1,305, while maintaining our Accumulate stance. This takes FY16F P/E to 10x where recent weakness has opened upside of 18% to last close. While PSMC's earnings for CY16/17/18 are being revised down by 1%/2%/2%, we maintain our BUY stance on the scrip (earnings growth of 20%YoY in CY16F ex- Roagar scheme).
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on November 30, 2015, 09:18:09 PM
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: invincible on December 02, 2015, 11:01:43 AM
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on December 02, 2015, 11:24:55 AM
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 02, 2015, 02:31:57 PM
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

but what about hcar plans to import hrv?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Sharoze123 on December 02, 2015, 02:33:53 PM
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

but what about hcar plans to import hrv?

I think someone asked Ishaq about this, about local manufacturers imports. He said they wouldn't be affected since they are exempted from this under some SRO.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on December 02, 2015, 03:42:16 PM
From Recorder:Ecc meeting

Separate increased taxes were also announced on imported automobiles - both new and used


Impact on PSMS & HCAR?

Certainly positive more for HCAR,no or negligible for PSMC

but what about hcar plans to import hrv?

Everything in flux due to absence of auto policy.

Hrv/vezel may be just one of the proposals may or may not materialize.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Ali135 on December 02, 2015, 10:25:16 PM
🇨🇳China Pakistan Economic Corridor beneficiaries
GHNI - Isuzu trucks (100 per month)
also purported orders from Navy
GHNL - UD trucks continuation till Dec2016 + small dongfeng trucks + cars
GTYR - market share increasing due to increased capacity + cheaper raw material benefit
HINO - 200 trucks every month
LINDE - electrodes directed to power plant envisioned by Chinese
BERG - Various products to be used as per company's director report
APL - Asphalt marketed by one of the only OMC
ASTL - rebars ordered by Chinese contractors for gigantic projects
FCCL - FWO is the main contractor which is using road quality FCCL bags
DYNO - formaldehyde producer
PCAL - best copper wire producer
Generally speaking, all OMCs, steel makers, blasting companies, fibre optic, trucks etc would be beneficiary
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: invincible on December 08, 2015, 07:20:15 PM
Oil is hitting new lows these days.

how it would impact on Auto sector?

Regards,
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: shaalim on December 10, 2015, 02:09:18 PM
Atlas Honda Sales
Nov'15 =  69,000
Oct'15  = 70,000
 
Honda Cars Sales
Nov'15 =  1523
Oct'15  =  1875

Pak Suzuki Sales
Nov'15 =  12,000
Oct'15  =   12,400

Hino Sales
Nov'15 =  220
Oct'15  =  238

G. Nissan Sales
Nov'15 =  62
Oct'15  =  30

Al-Ghazi Sales
Nov'15 =  744
Oct'15  =  1001
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Abid70 on December 10, 2015, 02:59:57 PM
Atlas Honda Sales
Nov'15 =  69,000
Oct'15  = 70,000
 
Honda Cars Sales
Nov'15 =  1523
Oct'15  =  1875

Pak Suzuki Sales
Nov'15 =  12,000
Oct'15  =   12,400

Hino Sales
Nov'15 =  220
Oct'15  =  238

G. Nissan Sales
Nov'15 =  62
Oct'15  =  30

Al-Ghazi Sales
Nov'15 =  744
Oct'15  =  1001

Data is not available on PAMA website
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on December 10, 2015, 04:40:19 PM
from where did u get this info?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: leraningtheropes on December 11, 2015, 10:33:08 AM
Atlas Honda Sales
Nov'15 =  69,000
Oct'15  = 70,000
 
Honda Cars Sales
Nov'15 =  1523
Oct'15  =  1875

Pak Suzuki Sales
Nov'15 =  12,000
Oct'15  =   12,400

Hino Sales
Nov'15 =  220
Oct'15  =  238

G. Nissan Sales
Nov'15 =  62
Oct'15  =  30

Al-Ghazi Sales
Nov'15 =  744
Oct'15  =  1001

Where exactly have these figures come from? They have STILL not been uploaded on the PAMA website. Makes me question the authenticity of it.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 11, 2015, 02:05:13 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1007927/fiat-looking-at-pakistan-as-next-possible-destination/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 11, 2015, 02:22:57 PM
Atlas Honda Sales
Nov'15 =  69,000
Oct'15  = 70,000
 
Honda Cars Sales
Nov'15 =  1523
Oct'15  =  1875

Pak Suzuki Sales
Nov'15 =  12,000
Oct'15  =   12,400

Hino Sales
Nov'15 =  220
Oct'15  =  238

G. Nissan Sales
Nov'15 =  62
Oct'15  =  30

Al-Ghazi Sales
Nov'15 =  744
Oct'15  =  1001

Where exactly have these figures come from? They have STILL not been uploaded on the PAMA website. Makes me question the authenticity of it.

(http://puu.sh/lRoOa/78d1f8e1af.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on December 11, 2015, 02:33:54 PM
Excellent No.’s for PSMC 101% YOY

Bumper Result in the making
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: shaalim on December 11, 2015, 04:59:45 PM
Atlas Honda Sales
Nov'15 =  69,000
Oct'15  = 70,000
 
Honda Cars Sales
Nov'15 =  1523
Oct'15  =  1875

Pak Suzuki Sales
Nov'15 =  12,000
Oct'15  =   12,400

Hino Sales
Nov'15 =  220
Oct'15  =  238

G. Nissan Sales
Nov'15 =  62
Oct'15  =  30

Al-Ghazi Sales
Nov'15 =  744
Oct'15  =  1001

Where exactly have these figures come from? They have STILL not been uploaded on the PAMA website. Makes me question the authenticity of it.

These figures were provided to me from my broker, I thought these are released by PAMA and I shared on the forum.
You are right these are not authentic and will care for authenticity in future, But I am surprised also that some figures are matching.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Abid70 on December 11, 2015, 05:36:15 PM
You are right... sales figures of ATLAS Honda, Ghazi Tractors and HCAR match with actual data
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ksenewb on December 11, 2015, 09:29:06 PM
buy INDU... great time, phr nahi milega inn rates pe  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 11, 2015, 10:09:00 PM
buy INDU... great time, phr nahi milega inn rates pe  :biggthumpup:

target ? 1400 ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: aftab ahmed on December 11, 2015, 10:36:25 PM
what about MTL
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on December 14, 2015, 07:12:47 PM
 
The Bell
 
Automobile: Upward momentum continues
 
As per PAMA statistics, automobile sales posted a decline of 3%MoM/+25%YoY to 100,138 units in Nov-15, bringing cumulative sales to 473,039 units; up 28% YoY in 5MFY16. Expansion in volumes primarily attributable to i) launch of 11th generation Corolla model ii) "Apna Rozgar Scheme", However on monthly basis volumes witnessed decline primarily on the back of ‘new year effect’. we expect improving economic indicators will further benefit automobile assemblers, however exchange rate parity can subside lower commodity prices in the medium term.

As per the data released by Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association (PAMA) for the month of Nov-15, total automobile sales declined by 3%MoM to 97,538 units as against 100,138 units, however on a yearly basis automobile growth momentum continued with total sales growing at the rate of 25%YoY. On a cumulative basis, automobile industry witnessed a noteworthy expansion of 28%YoY to 473,039 units in 5MFY16 as compared to 369,198 units in the corresponding period last year on account of 1) higher demand linked to 'Apna Rozgar Scheme' coupled with 2) launch of new version of Corolla. The slowdown in monthly sales is primarily attributable to ‘new year effect’. That said, YoY expansion in volumes has partially emanated on the heels of improving country macros in the backdrop of soft commodity prices, low inflation and upward trajectory in auto financing led by lower discount rate.
Passenger Cars; a star of  the season
The major contributor in volumetric growth was passenger car segment during 5MFY15, growing by 54%YoY to 75,806 units led by Bolan (i.e. Variant included in Apna Rozgar Scheme) and Corolla which grew by 202% and 39% respectively YoY, while Pickup division depicted a significant accretion of 162% YoY to 17,384 units as compared to 6,632 units in the corresponding period last year
PSMC: volumes declined by 3%MoM/+94%YoY
During the period under review, PSMC volumes declined by 3%MoM primarily contributed by RAVI which witnessed a decline of 667 units (20%MoM). On a cumulative basis, volumes of PSMC surged by 96%YoY to 54,736 units. Volumes for Mehran declined meagerly by 2%MoM to 3,367 units for the month of Nov-15.
INDU: Continuing with organic growth momentum; up by 1%MoM/23%YoY
INDU’s volumes maintained upward trajectory with volumes rising by 23% YoY but remaining flat on MoM (+1%) basis with new year phenomenon kicking in. Corolla variant led the pack with overall volumes rising by 18%YoY/+1%MoM, clocking in at 5,516 units. Hilux category witnessed a major escalation, growing by 119%YoY. 5MFY15 cumulative volumes rose by 32% YoY.
HCAR: Market share continues to shrink down by 19%MoM/+21%YoY
In the month of Nov-15, HCAR volumes clocked in at 1,523 units; falling by 19%MoM as compared to 1,875 units in Oct-15, however on YoY basis the volumes accreted by 20% YoY. Cumulatively, the company’s volumes increased by 21%YoY to 9,582 units as compared to 7,888 in same period last year.
Outlook
Going forward, we expect improving economic indicators will further benefit automobile assemblers, however exchange rate parity can potentially limit the benefit of lower commodity prices in the medium term. Despite bottoming out of 11th generation corolla sales and completion of Apna rozgar scheme, we expect new model from HCAR can provide impetus growth to the industry volumes. However, currently  we maintain market weight to the sector.

ELIXIR
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on December 17, 2015, 11:46:48 AM
Government mulls importing used tractors (Tribune): While briefing the Senate Standing
committee, the Minister for National Food Security and Research, Mr. Sikandar Hayat Khan
Bosan, has stated that the local tractor producers (including Millat Tractors and Al-Ghazi
Tractors) were producing sub-standard products. Despite government’s requests the local
producers have failed to improve the quality oftheir products. Resultantly, the government is
considering breaking the monopoly of these producers by importing used tractors from Belarus
and other countries if local production stays below par
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on December 22, 2015, 02:21:24 PM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1014057/government-will-announce-new-auto-policy-soon-jatoi/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: DK on December 22, 2015, 03:08:57 PM
Government mulls importing used tractors (Tribune): While briefing the Senate Standing
committee, the Minister for National Food Security and Research, Mr. Sikandar Hayat Khan
Bosan, has stated that the local tractor producers (including Millat Tractors and Al-Ghazi
Tractors) were producing sub-standard products. Despite government’s requests the local
producers have failed to improve the quality oftheir products. Resultantly, the government is
considering breaking the monopoly of these producers by importing used tractors from Belarus
and other countries if local production stays below par
LOL LOL LOL
gotta love this government. (are they seeking bribe, cuz millat has poked the jackpot)
i think there was a recent circular on KSE that millat tractors & MF will jointly export tractor from Pakistan giving them full NOC for export of their parts in tractors produced by Millat.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on December 22, 2015, 09:34:31 PM
what are the expectations of Auto policy? buy hold or sell ? :[
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: value786 on December 23, 2015, 08:47:07 PM
When auto policy is expected?  How you see Indus motors ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on December 25, 2015, 07:09:11 PM

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/12/24/business/edb-prepares-auto-draft-policy-2015-20/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on December 26, 2015, 03:37:52 PM
http://jang.com.pk/jang/dec2015-daily/26-12-2015/u70469.htm
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sarmad26 on December 30, 2015, 08:49:38 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-29/chinese-trucks-seen-surpassing-japanese-rigs-on-pakistan-s-roads
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on January 04, 2016, 01:10:52 PM
strengthening of yen 118 from 124 against the dollar will be negative for autos.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: silentvoice on January 05, 2016, 01:37:58 PM
strengthening of yen 118 from 124 against the dollar will be negative for autos.

As per some guru

Auto policy coming soon :dance :dance :dance
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on January 05, 2016, 05:02:25 PM
strengthening of yen 118 from 124 against the dollar will be negative for autos.

As per some guru

Auto policy coming soon :dance :dance :dance

Throw some light pls,within a week? any salient features you know
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alicima on January 11, 2016, 02:43:15 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 11, 2016, 06:12:58 PM
Flash Note
 
Autos: Cumulative volumes rise 66% YoY in 1HFY16
As per the latest data published by PAMA, automobile sales for the month of Dec-15 clocked in at 18,150 units; up by 65% YoY but down by 5% MoM. During 1HFY16, cumulative volumes grew by 66% YoY to 111,573 units attributable to robust growth emanating from PSMC and INDU.
During the period under review, PSMC continued with its outperformance streak and depicted a growth of 98%YoY, while MoM basis the company witnessed a meager expansion of 3% to 12,384 units. Apart from Rozgar scheme variants, Mehran volumes also remained robust and witnessed a surge of 37%YoY to 18,017units. On a cumulative basis, volumes of PSMC have surged by 98%YoY to 70,482 units.
INDU’s volumes remained impressive with Corolla (+11% YoY) leading the gains. Total volumes increased by 16%YoY to 4,736 units as compared to 4,097 units same period last year. While on a cumulative basis, volumes increased by 33% compared to same period last year.
HCAR volumes dropped by 33% MoM to 1,028 units, however on YoY basis the volumes accreted by 49%YoY. During 1HFY15, volumes have grown by 24%YoY.

elixir
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 11, 2016, 07:43:55 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016

kon leyga ?
na karein tu behtar hai
no one wants shitty chinese cars to be assembled in pakistan
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on January 11, 2016, 08:24:05 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016

kon leyga ?
na karein tu behtar hai
no one wants shitty chinese cars to be assembled in pakistan

Yes they will lose,probably they are banking on new drafted policy which offers pretty lower tariff on vehicles not assembled/manuf.i.e 10% non localized 25% localized instead of 32.5% & 50%.


Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: momo on January 11, 2016, 08:29:26 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016

kon leyga ?
na karein tu behtar hai
no one wants shitty chinese cars to be assembled in pakistan

Yes they will lose,probably they are banking on new drafted policy which offers pretty lower tariff on vehicles not assembled/manuf.i.e 10% non localized 25% localized instead of 32.5% & 50%.

It will be successful. The quality will be better than most of Suzuki's vehicles, and they sell like hot cakes. We need FAW to come, but also Renault-Nissan, VW, Ford, and Chevrolet.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on January 11, 2016, 08:52:37 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016

kon leyga ?
na karein tu behtar hai
no one wants shitty chinese cars to be assembled in pakistan

Yes they will lose,probably they are banking on new drafted policy which offers pretty lower tariff on vehicles not assembled/manuf.i.e 10% non localized 25% localized instead of 32.5% & 50%.

It will be successful. The quality will be better than most of Suzuki's vehicles, and they sell like hot cakes. We need FAW to come, but also Renault-Nissan, VW, Ford, and Chevrolet.

They are already in the market and their products are certainly not selling as hot cakes
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: momo on January 11, 2016, 08:59:47 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016

kon leyga ?
na karein tu behtar hai
no one wants shitty chinese cars to be assembled in pakistan

Yes they will lose,probably they are banking on new drafted policy which offers pretty lower tariff on vehicles not assembled/manuf.i.e 10% non localized 25% localized instead of 32.5% & 50%.

It will be successful. The quality will be better than most of Suzuki's vehicles, and they sell like hot cakes. We need FAW to come, but also Renault-Nissan, VW, Ford, and Chevrolet.

They are already in the market and their products are certainly not selling as hot cakes

That's because they don't have a strong dealership and support network yet. When they establish that, it will sell.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 11, 2016, 09:05:04 PM
Pakistan Automobile: 1HFY16 car sales reached at 111,720 units, up 66% YoY
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 66% YoY increase in 1HFY16 due to taxi scheme, rise in auto financing owing to 42-year low interest rates and overall improvement in economic situation in the country. During 1HFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 111,720 units versus 67,426 units in 1HFY15.
In a recent development, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) has also increased prices by ~1.0% owing to 1% hike in custom duty. To recall, both Indus Motors (INDU) and Honda cars (HCAR) increased car prices in Dec 2015 by 1.0%-1.5%. Car assemblers passed-on cost hike quite easily due to strong demand in the country.
We now forecast local car sales to grow at 15% in FY16 to reach at 206,777 units. This lower growth is due to 1) completion of taxi scheme in Feb 2016 and 2) decline in Civic volumes in anticipation of new model, which is expected to hit the market in July 2016.
PSMC: Taxi scheme to be completed in Feb 2016
Amongst individual companies, PSMC sales increased by 97% YoY to 70,482 units in 1HFY16 primarily due to Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme.
Contrary to historical trend of December, volumes increased by 3% MoM in Dec 2015 primarily due to Taxi Scheme. Historically, it has been observed that customers defer their buying in December due to year end phenomenon as they usually prefer to purchase and register their vehicles in the first month of New Year.
INDU: New Model of Toyota Corolla is still in demand
INDU sold 30,481 units in 1HFY16 versus 22,883 units in 1HFY15.
In Dec 2015, INDU sales stood at 4,738 units, up 16% YoY. On MoM basis, sales declined by 14% YoY due to year-end phenomenon.
HCAR: Civic volumes to dry out in anticipation of new model
HCAR sold 10,610 units in 1HFY16 compared to 8,578 units in the same period last year. In Dec 2015, HCAR sold 1,028 units, up 49% YoY (down 33% MoM).
Volumes of Honda Civic are expected to dry out in coming months in anticipation of new model launch in July 2016.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy affected sales
Pakistan tractor segment posted a decline of 41% YoY during 1HFY16 to reach at 12,375 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy schemes. To recall, Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16 announced subsidy of 25,000/29,000 tractors.
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their volumes during 1HFY16. Our industry sources revealed that farmers are waiting for the execution of announced subsidy schemes by Punjab and Sindh Govt. On the other hand, tractor manufacturers are requesting Govt. either to execute or shelve the announced scheme so that farmers resume their normal purchasing.
MTL sold 7,916 units in 1HFY16 compared to 12,811 units in the same period last year. On MoM, MTL sales decreased by 46% to 774 units in Dec 2015.
During 1HFY16, AGTL witnessed a decline of 48% YoY in its sales to 4,020 units. Company sold 144 units in Dec 2015, down 81% YoY (-81% MoM).
Trucks and buses segment of Pakistan automobile sector has posted an increase of 40% YoY to reach at 2,645 units during 1HFY15. We attribute this surge in demand to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and improving law & order situation in the country.

Topline Securities
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 11, 2016, 10:32:44 PM
Volkswagen's China Partner Plans to Assemble Cars in Pakistan in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/vw-s-china-partner-plans-to-assemble-cars-in-pakistan-in-2016

kon leyga ?
na karein tu behtar hai
no one wants shitty chinese cars to be assembled in pakistan

Yes they will lose,probably they are banking on new drafted policy which offers pretty lower tariff on vehicles not assembled/manuf.i.e 10% non localized 25% localized instead of 32.5% & 50%.

It will be successful. The quality will be better than most of Suzuki's vehicles, and they sell like hot cakes. We need FAW to come, but also Renault-Nissan, VW, Ford, and Chevrolet.

They are already in the market and their products are certainly not selling as hot cakes

That's because they don't have a strong dealership and support network yet. When they establish that, it will sell.

no, its because the product is crap.
I test drove it last year
Never want to sit in it again
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on January 12, 2016, 01:00:44 PM
(http://puu.sh/msKc0/95b0a64d3c.png)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on January 12, 2016, 05:47:03 PM
AKD Daily
Autos CY15 Sales: Reason to Rejoice

Recently released figures by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Pakistan's auto industry sales/production for CY15 showed a huge jump of 47%/45%YoY amounting to 182,231/182,548 units sold/produced over the period. Although seasonal tapering was witnessed in MoM figures (industry car sales/produced 14,019/15,887 units -11%/0%MoM) local car sales/production for CY15 have already trounced the total number for CY14, where ex-rozgar scheme units (assuming all 50,000 units were sold in the period) industry sales grew 6.7%YoY. Riding on the new model effect, the major contributor to cumulative sales/production volumes came from INDU as the company recorded 64,541/64,141 units (increase of 55/54%YoY) followed by PSMC with 133,660/127,086units (rising by 72/67%YoY). We re-iterate our linking for PSMC which benefits from higher units sales, allowing it greater operating leverage at an appealing CY15/16F PE of 8.3x/11.9x, with 15% upside to our TP of PkR593/share.
PSMC: The company recorded volumetric sales/production of 12,384/12835 units in Dec'15, up by 98%/90%YoY and maintaining 3%/11%MoM growth. Cumulative sales/production volume amounted to 133,660/127,086units (increase of 72%/102%YoY) with the greatest gains recorded in the sales/production of Wagon R (up 1.3x/80%YoY) and Ravi (up 1.7x/1.7x) on the back of Punjab Rozgar Scheme. Mehran/Cultus/ sales rose by 24%/8% solidifying the dominance of the OEM in the 1000cc and below segment.
INDU: The company posted sales/production of 4,738/4,461 units during Dec'15 up 16%/12%YoY but down 14%/21%MoM. Sales volumes of Corolla were at 4,230 units up by 17%YoY, and falling 15%MoM as the seasonal effect coupled with high base effect of the new model makes incremental sales growth more arduous. On a cumulative basis CY15 sales/production figures clocked in at 64,541/64,141 units growing by 55%/54%YoY with growth not just from the 11th Generation Corolla (sales growth of 58%YoY), but also from Fortuner/Hilux (rise of 95%/106%YoY) variants.
HCAR: Honda registered comparatively lackluster sales of 1,028 units up 49%YoY and flat over last month. Cumulative market share for the company in the 1300cc and above segment for CY15 now rests at 17% vs. 35% for CY14. The loss of market share to the 11th Generation Corolla and Swift is endemic of faltering demand from Civic and City offerings at the tail end of their product lifecycles.
Investment Perspective: Going forward, lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure spend, having positively impacted cumulative demand in the light commercial vehicles and Pick Up segment (sales rising 1.2xYoY for CY15), is expected to play out in the medium term. Moreover, channel checks with various dealers and management of OEM's have indicated increased demand in the form of fleet sales. Private companies, government agencies and recent influx of transportation services (Daewoo automotive) are heightening buying activity. We re-iterate our liking for PSMC which benefits from lower input costs and higher sales, dominance in key segments, and strong exposure to the growing pick-ups segment. Currently trading at a healthy CY15/16F PE of 8.3x/11.9x, with 15% upside to our TP of PkR593/share.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: invincible on February 03, 2016, 10:09:47 AM
Any positive development?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on February 11, 2016, 02:16:25 PM
strengthening of yen 118 from 124 against the dollar will be negative for autos.

yen 111
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MS on February 11, 2016, 02:33:08 PM
It is because of $ not because of yen and $ will recover
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on March 16, 2016, 12:25:10 PM

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1066324/auto-policy-existing-carmakers-unlikely-to-win-tax-benefits/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on March 17, 2016, 12:27:22 PM
Pakistan Automobile: Estimates revised on divergent JPY and demand outlooks

We revisit our investment case for BMA Automobile Universe as we now expect JPY to appreciate against USD by ~3.7% during CY16 (previous estimate 5.0% depreciation) from the average CY15 figure of 121.0/USD. Beyond FY16 as well, we expect JPY to weaken at a slower pace (see table on left). To note, the weakening of JPY versus USD, and consequently PKR, had been the prime reason for increasing automobile industry’s gross margins during CY15. In tandem, the recent appreciation in JPY/PKR will negatively impact automobile industry’s gross margins and bottom-line, we believe. However, long term prospects of the industry remain positive. The automobile industry is witnessing higher than expected local demand, with overall sales increasing by 46%YoY during 8MFY16. This coupled with improved domestic macros and improving trend for auto finance has compelled us to tweak our estimates of industry volumetric growth. Incorporating Dec’15 result as well as the aforementioned changes (JPY and sales volumes) has trimmed our TP to PKR492 (upside 12%) for PSMC, PKR285 (upside 19%) for HCAR and PKR1,308 (upside 31%) for INDU. Potential risks to our valuations include dampened local automobile demand owing to any hostile policy measures such as increase in the age limit of imported cars or adverse changes in import tariffs in the upcoming auto policy or fiscal budget.

bma
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on March 18, 2016, 11:11:02 AM
One more time lets see!

http://epaper.brecorder.com/2016/03/18/1-page/741752-news.html
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on March 18, 2016, 09:42:02 PM

At last....

http://www.radio.gov.pk/newsdetail/83541/1
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on March 19, 2016, 12:02:17 PM

Greenfield is now defined as “installation of new and independent automotive assembly and manufacturing facilities by an investor for the production of vehicles of make not already being manufactured in Pakistan.”

The government has included the word ‘make’ and deleted the word ‘assembled’. It has defined ‘make’ as “any vehicle of whatever variant produced by the same manufacturer.”

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on March 21, 2016, 12:01:57 PM
Auto policy approved; neutral to negative in near term, +ve in LT                                           
 
The much awaited approval of Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-20 by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) adds to the medium-term positive prospects of the auto sector, in our view.
Absence of investment incentives for existing players is likely to be unwelcomed and may result in continued uncertainty till implementation of ADP from July 1st 2016. In addition, we see little material earnings impact for now, as reduction in CKD duty is likely to be absorbed, given adverse Yen/USD parity and duty hike in imported steel and iron products.
The roll-out of a medium-term auto policy is set to: (1) improve the regulatory environment by removing the backdrop of uncertainty with regards to future duty structure and investment incentives, and (2) pave the way for the pending expansion plans in medium-term.
 
See the Morning Shout dated March 21, 2016 on http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS21-03-16.pdf  for details.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sAr on March 21, 2016, 12:34:33 PM
Auto policy approved; neutral to negative in near term, +ve in LT                                           
 
The much awaited approval of Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-20 by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) adds to the medium-term positive prospects of the auto sector, in our view.
Absence of investment incentives for existing players is likely to be unwelcomed and may result in continued uncertainty till implementation of ADP from July 1st 2016. In addition, we see little material earnings impact for now, as reduction in CKD duty is likely to be absorbed, given adverse Yen/USD parity and duty hike in imported steel and iron products.
The roll-out of a medium-term auto policy is set to: (1) improve the regulatory environment by removing the backdrop of uncertainty with regards to future duty structure and investment incentives, and (2) pave the way for the pending expansion plans in medium-term.
 
See the Morning Shout dated March 21, 2016 on http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS21-03-16.pdf  for details.

SBM Bhai,
How well Auto Parts Industry will fare under this new Policy? Any Incentive/Disincentive, Opportunity/Threat ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on March 21, 2016, 01:00:30 PM
Auto policy approved; neutral to negative in near term, +ve in LT                                           
 
The much awaited approval of Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-20 by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) adds to the medium-term positive prospects of the auto sector, in our view.
Absence of investment incentives for existing players is likely to be unwelcomed and may result in continued uncertainty till implementation of ADP from July 1st 2016. In addition, we see little material earnings impact for now, as reduction in CKD duty is likely to be absorbed, given adverse Yen/USD parity and duty hike in imported steel and iron products.
The roll-out of a medium-term auto policy is set to: (1) improve the regulatory environment by removing the backdrop of uncertainty with regards to future duty structure and investment incentives, and (2) pave the way for the pending expansion plans in medium-term.
 
See the Morning Shout dated March 21, 2016 on http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS21-03-16.pdf  for details.

SBM Bhai,
How well Auto Parts Industry will fare under this new Policy? Any Incentive/Disincentive, Opportunity/Threat ?

sorry havent had the time to go through the policy myself .. Not sure what it says about parts etc
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on March 21, 2016, 11:37:33 PM
AIDP finds little favor with existing OEMs
 
We view the new auto-policy (2016-21) to have neutral to negative impact on existing auto assemblers. The key focal point of the new auto-policy is to intensify competition between the existing OEM’s by reducing barriers to entry through tax incentives. In this regard, we eye the new auto policy as a major shift in the industry dynamics in the long run as the new entrants can potentially dilute the existing players’ market share. That said, we don’t expect the policy impacts to come into play in the medium term due to operational lead time of brown/greenfield expansion where a more prominent threat to the industry would continue to be imported cars. While rationalization of tariff on CKD are likely to bode well for OEM margins in the short term at least. The key highlights of the New Auto policy are as follows:

http://www.elixirsec.com/Research/TheBell21032016.pdf?utm_source=Research%2BReports&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BellDownload8
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on March 21, 2016, 11:52:52 PM
Auto Policy 2015-20: Neutral to Positive for OEM’s
(PDF attached)
(Mar 21, 2016)
 
§  The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of Pakistan, a key decision making authority, has approved the long awaited Auto Policy 2015-20 in a meeting held on Mar 18, 2016. We believe, the new auto policy is neutral to positive for existing Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) as 1) custom duty on Completely Knocked Down (CKD) units has been reduced from 32.5% to 30%, which will improve margins of existing players, 2) reduction in import duty rates on localized and non-localized parts to improve indigenous competitiveness and 3) age limit of used imported passenger cars maintained at 3 years and for Buses, Vans, Trucks, Pickups, SUVs including 4x4 vehicles at 5 years.
§  The new policy aims to 1) facilitate higher volumes, 2) more investment, 3) enhanced competition and 4) better quality with latest technology. Auto policy 2015-20 lowers entry barriers for new entrants and incentivizes the existing non-operational / closed assembly and manufacturing facilities since June 30, 2013.
§  The previous Auto Policy had expired in 2012 and the government had not finalized a revised one since then. This had led to uncertainty and lack of new investment in the Auto sector.
§  Greenfield investment (Category A): Investment in this category will be entitled to import non-localized parts at 10% rate of custom duty and localized parts at 25% for a period of 4 years in case of passenger cars from 800cc and above category. Further, 100% parts can be imported at 10% rate for below 800cc category. As per news reports, different players of Europe, France and China are interested in exploring opportunities that Pakistan presents. Further, Govt. has also allowed one-off duty-free import of plant & machinery in order to setup new manufacturing facility. We believe that any new entrants will take at least 3 years to enter the market.
§  Brownfield investment (Category B): This category deals with revival of existing non-operational or closed assembly and manufacturing facilities since June 30, 2013. The new auto policy offers 10% rate of custom duty for non-localized parts and 25% for localized parts for a period of 3 years. We believe Ghandhara Nissan (GHNL) and Dewan Farooq Motors (DFML) will be the prime beneficiaries in this category.
§  No change in import policy for used vehicles: There is no change in schemes and age limit of used imported vehicles. Import policy for used vehicles allow expatriate Pakistanis to bring passenger cars up to 3-year old under 1) Personal baggage once in 2 years per family, 2) Transfer of residence and 3) Gift scheme once in 2 years. However, the age limit is 5-year in case of used Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs). We believe that this was a major risk for local OEMs as the Govt. had increased age of used imported cars from 3 years to 5 years in Feb 2011, which resulted in an influx of 50-60K imported used cars within 12-18 months.
§  Other salient features: Other salient features included 1) facilitating individual buyers of the HCV segment by extending consumer finance facility to individual customers for commercial vehicles in line with car segment financing scheme at the prevailing interest rates, 2) enforcement of safety features and standards, where anti-locking braking system (ABS) is to be enforced even for 800cc vehicles as part of minimum safety standards, 3) limiting amount of advance payment up to 50% of the total price and delivery time to 2 months (any delay over 2 months will result in discount @ KIBOR + 2% prevailing on the date of final delivery / settlement from the final payment) and 4) removal of 50% regulatory duty on imported vehicles above 1801cc. This would have negative implication for Fortuner, manufactured by Indus Motors (INDU), because price of large imported vehicles will come down.
§  Investment perspective: We remain positive on prospects of Pakistan’s Auto Sector.  Overall Pakistan car sales grew at 5-year (2011-15) CAGR of 9% to reach 275k units (local and imported) in 2015 (ex-taxi units were 232k). These are expected to potentially exceed 400k by 2020 as Pakistan’s GDP per Capita grows to US$2,000. Currently, Pakistan car industry size is US$2.5bn (~1% of GDP) with 13 cars per thousand people. Regional countries with higher GDP per Capita like Malaysia, Thailand, Iran, India and Vietnam have higher cars per thousand, ranging from around 18 to over 400. Pakistan’s cars per thousand by 2020 is expected to be around 20, same as prevalent in Vietnam who’s GDP/capita is ~US$2,000.
§  We maintain our ‘Buy’ call on Pak Suzuki (PSMC) and INDU within Topline Auto Universe with the target price of Rs780/share and Rs1,250/share respectively. We believe that PSMC will continue its plan to launch two new models namely 1) Celerio in 2017 and 2) Alto 660cc in 2018.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on March 22, 2016, 02:11:53 AM

ADP 2016-21

http://www.engineeringpakistan.com/ADP%202016-21.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on March 22, 2016, 11:58:51 AM

ADP 2016-21

http://www.engineeringpakistan.com/ADP%202016-21.pdf

thanks
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on March 22, 2016, 12:05:35 PM
Auto policy unveiled, existing players - winners or losers?
In a recent development, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has finally approved the long awaited Automotive Development Policy (ADP) for the upcoming five years, where the primary focus is tilted towards the facilitation of higher volumes, encouragement of newer investments and enhancement of competition together with insurance of consumers’ welfare. We believe  this would potentially encourage foreign players to enter the Pakistani market, however, since the process is expected to take over 30months (at least), existing players are expected to continue benefiting from the rise in demand.

While the policy creates a lucrative ground for newer players to step in, we believe the existing players (specifically INDU, PSMC and HCAR) would still end up beneficiaries in short to medium term due to: time required for new entrants, Pakistani users love for Japanese cars and existing secondary market for current players.
Car sales have remained impressive during the previous fiscal year (FY15) where it surged by ~31%YoY. This further improved by over 45%YoY during 8MFY16 reaching ~149k units (Cars & LCVs) on the heels of successful completion of Apna Rozgar Scheme, launch of new Corolla model, decades low interest rates fueling auto financing (over PkR90bn FYTD) and overall improving economic picture.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on April 06, 2016, 11:40:23 PM
Category-B: Brownfield Investment is defined as revival of an existing assembly
and/or manufacturing facilities, that is non-operational or closed on or before July 01, 2013 and
the make is not in production in Pakistan since that date and that the revival is undertaken either
independently by original owners or new investors or under joint venture agreement with foreign
principal or by foreign principal independently through purchase of plant.

According to the above clause, GHNL's plant was operational till dec 2015(making sigma defender as GHNL rented it out to them).

Existing assemblers can take BOI,EDB to court in case they allow GHNL to produce Nissan's in that plant which could delay the launch of Nissan.
My assumption is based on rude comments by existing assemblers while there is some ambiguity in Category-B.

Also Daihatsu can take advantage to re launch their products according to category-B.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SoloRunner on April 06, 2016, 11:49:58 PM
DFML also fall in Category B ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on April 07, 2016, 10:27:13 AM
Category-B: Brownfield Investment is defined as revival of an existing assembly
and/or manufacturing facilities, that is non-operational or closed on or before July 01, 2013 and
the make is not in production in Pakistan since that date and that the revival is undertaken either
independently by original owners or new investors or under joint venture agreement with foreign
principal or by foreign principal independently through purchase of plant.

According to the above clause, GHNL's plant was operational till dec 2015(making sigma defender as GHNL rented it out to them).

Existing assemblers can take BOI,EDB to court in case they allow GHNL to produce Nissan's in that plant which could delay the launch of Nissan.
My assumption is based on rude comments by existing assemblers while there is some ambiguity in Category-B.

Also Daihatsu can take advantage to re launch their products according to category-B.

did daihatsu have a different plant ?
werent they using indu's facilities ?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on April 07, 2016, 10:41:26 AM
Category-B: Brownfield Investment is defined as revival of an existing assembly
and/or manufacturing facilities, that is non-operational or closed on or before July 01, 2013 and
the make is not in production in Pakistan since that date and that the revival is undertaken either
independently by original owners or new investors or under joint venture agreement with foreign
principal or by foreign principal independently through purchase of plant.

According to the above clause, GHNL's plant was operational till dec 2015(making sigma defender as GHNL rented it out to them).

Existing assemblers can take BOI,EDB to court in case they allow GHNL to produce Nissan's in that plant which could delay the launch of Nissan.
My assumption is based on rude comments by existing assemblers while there is some ambiguity in Category-B.

Also Daihatsu can take advantage to re launch their products according to category-B.

did daihatsu have a different plant ?
werent they using indu's facilities ?

Yes they were but if GHNL is eligible even when they rented out their plant and the plant remain operational then Daihatsu certainly qualify in the same category.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on April 07, 2016, 10:57:02 AM
Category-B: Brownfield Investment is defined as revival of an existing assembly
and/or manufacturing facilities, that is non-operational or closed on or before July 01, 2013 and
the make is not in production in Pakistan since that date and that the revival is undertaken either
independently by original owners or new investors or under joint venture agreement with foreign
principal or by foreign principal independently through purchase of plant.

According to the above clause, GHNL's plant was operational till dec 2015(making sigma defender as GHNL rented it out to them).

Existing assemblers can take BOI,EDB to court in case they allow GHNL to produce Nissan's in that plant which could delay the launch of Nissan.
My assumption is based on rude comments by existing assemblers while there is some ambiguity in Category-B.

Also Daihatsu can take advantage to re launch their products according to category-B.

did daihatsu have a different plant ?
werent they using indu's facilities ?

Yes they were but if GHNL is eligible even when they rented out their plant and the plant remain operational then Daihatsu certainly qualify in the same category.

If you can read it line by line and the situation in which GHNL is,its a material for litigation imho
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: rsuleman on April 09, 2016, 09:14:13 PM
The auto policy: Threats, concerns and optimism
KARACHI:
The announcement of the new auto policy shook the entire industry with threat from one existing player, veiled in the guise of criticism, that it will move its investment to Iran if changes were not made. The other two preferred staying silent in the background.

Followers, consumers and the government, however, hailed the development as a step towards bringing in a new manufacturer in a country starved of choice and competition.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1081416/the-auto-policy-threats-concerns-and-optimism/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: abzz reborn on April 12, 2016, 11:46:45 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/2cf831k.jpg)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on April 12, 2016, 01:00:06 PM
Strong volumes in Mar-16; currency & regulatory concerns likely to persist
 
Latest auto sales data for Mar-16 (up 11% MoM) is showing signs of strong underlying demand. We foresee healthy sales momentum to continue in 4QFY16, in the backdrop of (1) better farmer income on bumper wheat crop, and (2) possible model uplifts by assemblers.
However, stock price underperformance is unlikely to unwind atleast in the pre-budget period in our view, given sector headwinds.
Key areas of concern for investors at present are (1) JPY/USD now at 108 (10% gain since Jan to date), (2) lack of clarity on plans for new capex/vehicle launches after no incentives extended to existing players in AIDP, and (3) potential budgetary headwinds.
 
See the Morning Shout dated April 12, 2016 on http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS12-04-16.pdf  for details.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on April 12, 2016, 06:16:58 PM
AKD Daily
Autos: Steady growth underlie March’16 offtake

Automotive sales/production was recorded at 17,587/17,424 units in March’16, growing 11%/27%MoM, but down 17%/17%YoY, largely in line with expectation of post-Rozgar scheme tapered growth scenario. Cumulative, 9MFY16 sales/production remained robust, resting at 166,898/167,217 units increasing 35%/35%YoY, driven by offtake from PSMC (100,663 units sold, rising 51%YoY) and INDU (47,504 units sold, rising 18%YoY). 800 and below 1000cc segment exhibited 49%YoY climb for 9MFY16 (53,715 units sold, led by Mehran and Bolan), followed by the 1000cc segment rising 34%YoY (18,609 units sold, Cultus sales climbed 2.05xYoY) and the 1300cc and above segment increased by 17%YoY (64,882 units sold with 20%YoY growth in Corolla sales). LCV sales outpaced the passenger car segment, where 9MFY16 sales amounted to 29,692 units, an increase of 62%YoY, accentuated by Rozgar scheme driven offtake. We remain bullish on local OEMs as new entrants remain few and far in between (approximately 18 months required for Greenfield production). Citing continuation of robust growth, and retaining our FY16 sales volumes estimates, we recommend a position in INDU with (FCFE based) TP of PkR1,160/sh, implying a Buy stance.   
PSMC: Recording volumetric sales/production of 9,055/7,938 units in March'16, up 8%/45%MoM, but falling 30%/37%YoY, reeling from completion of the Punjab Rozgar Scheme. In the absence of monthly breakdown of Rozgar scheme deliveries, if we adjust March'15 sales by an average of the 50,000 deliveries under the scheme (4,167units delivered monthly on average for the duration of the scheme), tepid 3%YoY growth in offtake is recorded.  Cumulative sales/production volume for 9MFY16 amounted to 100,663/100,891 units (increase of 51%/51%YoY) with the greatest gains recorded in the sales/production of Wagon R (up 2.05x/2.06YoY), Bolan (up 82%/78%YoY) and Ravi (up 81%/78YoY). Additionally, Cultus sales for March'16 rose by 43%MoM and 2%YoY following newly launched 'face-lift' model of the variant and eventual phasing out of the variant by 1QCY17.
INDU: The OEM posted sales/production of 5,781/5,827 units during March'16 gaining 10%/7%MoM, while finding it difficult to eek out annual growth of 0.3%/9.3%YoY. Sales volumes of Corolla were at 5,275 units, up 2%YoY, while growing 9%MoM, against a lackluster February'16. On a cumulative basis 9MFY16 sales/production figures for the Corolla clocked in at 43,344/43,440 units growing by 20%/20%YoY, followed by 11.5%YoY sales growth, exhibited by the Hilux. INDU continues to dominate the 1,300cc segment, as the Corolla controls 67% market share in the segment vs. 65% from the year before.
HCAR: Sales growth continued to quicken pace with the OEM recording total sales of 2,749 units up 27%MoM faring 16%YoY higher. Losing market share despite growing offtake became a matter of failing to tap growing demand. While the 1300cc and above segment during 9MFY16 expanded 17%YoY, HCAR's offtake fell short of matching growth, leading to tapering of market share for the company.
Outlook: Segment-wise growth, and ensuing impact on dominant OEM's continued, while recent passing through of cost increases to customers failed to dent demand for the time being. Highlighting the release of the ADP-II as a major industry shift, we remain bullish on local OEMs as new entrants remain few and far in between (approximately 18 months required for Greenfield production). Citing continuation of robust growth, and retaining our FY16 sales volumes estimates, we recommend position in INDU with (FCFE based) TP of PkR1,160/sh, implying Buy stance.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: aftab6274974 on May 10, 2016, 11:43:15 AM
April ka data aj aiga ya kal??? any info?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 10, 2016, 08:37:24 PM
Pakistan Short Report : (May 10, 2016)
Pakistan Automobile: 10MFY16 car sales reached 184,099 units, up 29% YoY
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 29% YoY growth during 10MFY16 owing to rise in auto financing due to 42-year low interest rates, taxi scheme, improving law & order situation and overall improvement in country’s economic situation. During 10MFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 184,099 units versus 142,814 units in the same period last year.
PSMC: Post-completion of Taxi scheme
Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki (PSMC) sales increased by 41% YoY to 109,628 units in 10MFY16 primarily due to Punjab Govt. Taxi Scheme.
Volumes decreased by 18% YoY (1% MoM) in April 2016 (second month after the completion of Taxi Scheme) to 8,965 units primarily due to completion of Taxi Scheme.
INDU: Toyota Corolla still commanding waiting period
Indus Motors (INDU) sold 52,987 units in 10MFY16 versus 45,978 units in 10MFY15. In April 2016, sales fell 6% YoY to 5,483 units.
On MoM basis, sales declined 5% due fewer working days in Apr 2016 compared to Mar 2016.
It is important to note that delivery time for new corolla model is still hovering in the range of 2-4 months depending on the variant.
HCAR: New model of Civic is expected to hit the market in 2H2016
Honda Cars (HCAR) sold 21,293 units in 10MFY16 compared to 18,781 units in the same period last year. In Apr 2016, HCAR sold 2,751 units, up 16% YoY (flat MoM). We believe that Honda City remained the major contributor in this growth.
Volumes of Honda Civic are expected to dry out in coming months in anticipation of new model launch in 2H2016.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy affected sales
Pakistan tractor segment posted a decline of 31% YoY during 10MFY16 to reach at 26,586 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy scheme of 25,000/29,000 tractors which was announced by Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16.
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their sales volumes during 10MFY16 as farmers are waiting for the execution of announced subsidy schemes by Punjab and Sindh Govt. Tractor manufacturers are requesting the Govt. either to execute or shelve the announced scheme so that farmers resume their normal purchasing.
MTL sold 15,974 units in 10MFY16 compared to 23,426 units in the same period last year. Sales of the company decreased by 29% YoY to 2,440 units in Apr 2016. (down 4% MoM)
During 10MFY16, AGTL witnessed a decline of 30% YoY in sales to 9,882 units. Company sold 1,935 units in Apr 2016, up 23% YoY (7% MoM). Farmers seem to have resumed regular purchases due to uncertainty in subsidy scheme.
Trucks & Buses segment of Pakistan automobile sector has posted an increase of 42% YoY to reach at 5,076 units in 10MFY16. We attribute this surge in demand to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and improving law & order situation in the country.

Topline Securities Ltd.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on May 11, 2016, 01:58:51 AM
April ka data aj aiga ya kal??? any info?

http://www.pama.org.pk/images/stories/pdf/production-sales.pdf
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on May 11, 2016, 11:43:53 AM
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 29% YoY growth during 10MFY16 owing to rise in auto financing due to 42-year low interest rates, taxi scheme, improving law & order situation and overall improvement in country’s economic situation. During 10MFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 184,099 units versus 142,814 units in the same period.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 11, 2016, 07:48:18 PM
AKD Daily
 
April'16 Auto Numbers: Coming off the high bas
e
Apr'16 automobile sales and production data is out, with 17,201 units constituting total offtake (down 2%MoM and lower by 10%YoY) of which 15,023 automobiles (creeping lower by 2%MoM and 4%YoY) were sold during the past month. Cumulative 10MFY16 industry sales stand at 184,099 units (growth of 29%YoY), where growth from Car sales (152,229 units growing 26%YoY) and LCV offtake (31,870 units increasing by 46%YoY) were in play.  PSMC recorded cumulative sales of 109,628 units (up 41%YoY due to Rozgar sales of ~7months being factored in), while sales figures for INDU reached 52,987units (sturdy incline of 15%YoY, led by 48,203 units of the Corolla being sold). HCAR offtake growth remained unexciting, with sales growth of 13%YoY remaining the lowest amongst big 3 manufacturers with its market share dipping to 29% (vs. 30% during 10MFY15) in the 1,300CC segment. CYTD sales growth in the passenger car segment slowed to 0.3%YoY, held back by 8.3%YoY fall in 800 and below 1000CC segment offtake (1,887 fewer units sold YoY with Bolan sales falling 31%YoY) countered by 27%YoY rise in the 1000CC as the 1300CC and above sales growth proved flattish. For INDU, where a large cash pile, sustained demand profile, coupled with the absence of major CAPEX outlays, we raise our FY17F/18F DPS estimates by PkR5/5 per share, bringing D/Y for the years to 8%/9%.             .
PSMC: Selling 8,965 units (down 1%MoM/18%YoY) in April'16, the decline in  volumes added to the emerging trend of post-Rozgar 4MCY16 sales decline of 7%YoY. Additionally, this was further backed by Ravi/Bolan sales falling by 27%/31% ( 2,871/3233 fewer units sold YoY). That said, Mehran/Cultus/Wagon R sales provided stability, growing by 11%/11%/60%YoY.
INDU: April'16 sales reached 5,483units (up 0.1%MoM/16%YoY), reflecting a minor contraction in Corolla sales (4,859 units sold falling 8%MoM/10%YoY). Despite this, 10MFY16 Corolla sales of 48,203 units (rising 16%YoY) are on track to meet our FY16E target of 58.4K units (growth of 14%YoY) re-affirming our hypothesis of annual sales crossing last year's total. Moreover, on a consolidated basis, 10MCY15 sales for the OEM amounted to 54,287units, depicting a rise of 64%YoY, with Corolla sales being the underlying factor (49,093 units sold). The Corolla further benefitted from the robust growth of 42%YoY in the 1300 and above passenger car segment where its market share remains at 65%.            .
Investment Perspective: Interim dividends paid out by INDU (quarterly since 4QFY15) remain reflective of a strong cash position (3QFY16 Cash + Short term Investments at PkR35.4bn taking up 65% of its asset base), while sustained demand growth for the Corolla meet our expectations (FY16F/17F sales growth expected at +14%/-20%YoY). In the absence of significant CAPEX, we raise our FY17F/18F DPS estimates by PkR5/5 per share, bringing D/Y for the years to 8%/9%.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on May 11, 2016, 07:51:03 PM
 
Elixir Insight

Automobile Assemblers-
Passenger car sales drop by 2%MoM/4%YoY
As per the latest data published by Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association, passenger car sales for the month of Apr-16 declined 2% sequentially, while scaling up 4%YoY clocking in at 15,021 units.
During the month, HCAR volumes surged by 16%YoY, however volumes of INDU and PSMC declined by 6% YoY and 18% YoY, respectively.
We expect cumulative auto volumes to expand by 4-5% over the medium term on the back of 1) expanding auto credit (?32% YoY or up PKR24.6bn) &, 2) economic growth in the back drop of low auto density.

http://www.elixirsec.com/Research/ElixirInsight11052016.pdf?utm_source=Research%2BReports&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BellDownload (http://www.elixirsec.com/Research/ElixirInsight11052016.pdf?utm_source=Research%2BReports&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=BellDownload)
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on June 05, 2016, 12:16:37 PM
Automobiles Assemblers – Neutral
?The implementation of the Auto Development Policy (ADP) 2016-21 is expected to commence from Jul-16. As discussed prior to the budget, the ADP is a negative for the Big 3 Auto assemblers, considering the additional incentives it provides to new entrants over existing assemblers.
?Increased incentives to the agriculture sector proposed in the Budget FY17 should prop up farmer income, and thus provide support to automobiles sales going forward.
?Government has proposed an advance tax of 3% on value of motor vehicles for non-filers, which will be collected when the vehicle is leased. This could potentially put a dent on the auto financing sales, which have recently been providing a major chunk of volumetric growth for the sector (35-40% of sector volumes attributed to auto financing sales, as per industry experts).
?Super Tax of 3% will be charged on Automobile sector, which is expected to hurt sector’s earnings by 4-6%.
?Our top pick in the sector is INDU.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on June 06, 2016, 12:41:34 PM
www.wsj.com/articles/Japanese-yen-strengthens-erases-may-losses-1465190251

Japanese Yen Strengthens, Erases May Losses
Yen has been surging this year since the Bank of Japan introduced negative rates
By GREGOR STUART HUNTER
June 6, 2016 1:17 a.m. ET
HONG KONG—Asian currencies weakened in trading on Monday, reversing some gains following Friday’s U.S. jobs report that all but wiped out expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this month.

The yen weakened 0.5% to 107.089 against the US dollar on Monday. It reached its strongest level against the green back in a month late friday, when the Japanese currency stood as strong as 106.35 against the US dollar.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on June 08, 2016, 10:32:32 AM
Auto sector boomed due to this policy decision:
Import of used cars: government decides to tighten procedures: The govt has decided to tighten used cars'' import procedures aimed at discouraging misuse of Commerce Ministry''s schemes by commercial importers and encouraging new investment in auto industry, official sources told. Pakistan''s annual import of used cars is around 30,000 units, mainly from Japan. Three-year used cars are imported into Pakistan through informal channels. However, FBR earns huge revenue on illegally imported used cars and insists on import of used cars on a commercial basis.
Source:http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/54176:import-of-used-cars-government-decides-to-tighten-procedures/?date=2016-06-08
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: momo on June 08, 2016, 11:03:35 PM
Auto sector boomed due to this policy decision:
Import of used cars: government decides to tighten procedures: The govt has decided to tighten used cars'' import procedures aimed at discouraging misuse of Commerce Ministry''s schemes by commercial importers and encouraging new investment in auto industry, official sources told. Pakistan''s annual import of used cars is around 30,000 units, mainly from Japan. Three-year used cars are imported into Pakistan through informal channels. However, FBR earns huge revenue on illegally imported used cars and insists on import of used cars on a commercial basis.
Source:http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/54176:import-of-used-cars-government-decides-to-tighten-procedures/?date=2016-06-08

More detrimental for consumers, again. Why can't they just let these automakers fend for themselves? They've been provided plenty of protection.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 10, 2016, 05:52:10 PM
Pakistan Automobile: 11MFY16 car sales reached 201,151 units, up 24% YoY
Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) posted 24% YoY growth during 11MFY16. Continued growth can be attributed to auto financing due to decade low interest rates, taxi scheme, improving law & order situation and overall improvement in country’s economic situation. During 11MFY16, local vehicle sales stood at 201,151 units against 162,151 units during same period last year.
PSMC: Taxi scheme complete
Amongst individual companies, Pak Suzuki’s (PSMC) sales increased 33% YoY to 118,629 units in 11MFY16 mainly led by Punjab Govt.’s Taxi Scheme.
Volumes remained flat MoM while they declined 22% YoY in May 2016 to 9,001 units due to completion of taxi scheme.
INDU: Toyota Corolla going strong
Indus Motors (INDU) sold 58,531 units in 11MFY16 versus 51,485 units last year. Sales marginally improved in May 2016, up 1% YoY, coming in at 5,544 units.
It is important to note that delivery time for new corolla model continues and varies depending on the variant.
HCAR: New model of Civic to hit earlier than expected
Honda Cars (HCAR) sold 23,800 units in 11MFY16 compared to 21,134 units in the same period last year. Sales improved 7% YoY to 2,507 in May 2016, but declined 9% MoM.
We believe that Honda City is the main contributor to HCAR’s sales growth and volumes of Honda Civic are expected to dry out now. Buyers are likely to prefer the new model of Civic (10th generation). Pre-booking for the same has already begun and the company is expected to launch the model in the next few months or so, as per our channel checks.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al Ghazi (AGTL): Delay in subsidy impacted sales
Pakistan tractor segment posted a decline of 28% YoY during 11MFY16 to reach 30,607 units. We attribute this decline to the delay in the launch of provincial tractor subsidy scheme of 25,000/29,000 tractors, which was announced by Punjab/Sindh Govt. in Budget FY16.
Millat tractors (MTL) and Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) both witnessed a decline in their sales volumes during 11MFY16 as farmers held off purchases in anticipation of the said subsidy.
MTL sold 18,208 units in 11MFY16 compared to 26,155 units in the same period last year. Sales of the company fell 18% YoY (4% MoM) to 2,234 units in May 2016.
In the same period, AGTL witnessed a decline of 26% YoY in sales to 11,653 units. Company sold 1,771 units in May 2016, up 14% YoY (down 8% MoM).
We believe farmers have resumed regular purchases due to uncertainty in subsidy scheme. This year’s budget is full of incentives to the agriculture sector, including reduction in urea prices and financing rates. This should help improve liquidity with farmers resulting in better offtake of tractors going forward, we believe.
Trucks & Buses segment of Pakistan automobile sector has posted an increase of 42% YoY to reach at 5,815 units in 11MFY16. We attribute this surge in demand to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and improving law & order situation in the country.

TOPLINE
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: ally on June 19, 2016, 11:56:06 AM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1265768/tractor-prices-to-drop-by-up-to-rs80000-after-cut-in-sales-tax

Tractor prices to decrease from end of June or early July'16.

Yen appreciation remains a big worry for car assemblers.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 24, 2016, 08:09:37 AM
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy

floor timee
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on June 24, 2016, 08:20:36 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy

floor timee

& also time to buy!
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on June 25, 2016, 12:05:23 AM
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy

floor timee

& also time to buy!

Well I don't think it's buy time in autos, yen is around 30 month high around 102, with 3.7% gaining only today, so rising yen will b a big worry for auto assemblers so better wait and see.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: momo on June 25, 2016, 10:38:40 AM
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy

floor timee

& also time to buy!

Well I don't think it's buy time in autos, yen is around 30 month high around 102, with 3.7% gaining only today, so rising yen will b a big worry for auto assemblers so better wait and see.

It won't stay strong for too long and will depreciate soon. The Japanese can't afford to let it stay strong.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on June 29, 2016, 06:39:30 PM
Positives for HCAR and INDU

Punjab government imposed one-time tax on imported vehicles above 1300cc engine capacity in its FY17 budget announcement.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on June 30, 2016, 12:40:27 AM
Positives for HCAR and INDU

Punjab government imposed one-time tax on imported vehicles above 1300cc engine capacity in its FY17 budget announcement.

arent majority of the cars imported below 1300cc ?
hmm
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on June 30, 2016, 04:58:18 PM
AKD Daily
 
Autos: When tyre meets road
Launch of new models are expected to add to the strong offtake witnessed in the Auto space, coupled by depressed commodity prices (particularly spending on fuel and tapered cost of borrowing) have been catalysts for the Auto space (4-yr consolidated total sales growth CAGR of 5.94%). The next leg of incremental growth is expected to be built on: 1) passing-on of increased costs, either a factor of Yen appreciation (14.8% CYTD, averaging ~115 and ~108 for 3Q and 4QFY16) or raised input prices (CRC sheet steel prices up ~37%CYTD) and, 2) lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure spend, having propelled cumulative demand growth in the light commercial vehicles and Pick Up segments to the highest amongst all segments (32.3%YoY increase for 11MFY16). While news of the 10th Generation Civic model launch caught many by surprise, the stock has since responded (pop of 23.7% during June'16) to the anticipated revival in demand for an endearing premium brand. An analysis of trailing P/E between HCAR and its nearest competitor in the listed space INDU, over a comparable period (CY12 onwards), shows the relative premium HCAR enjoys. Bouts of price performance for both scrips are triggered by supernormal growth stages coinciding with the launch of new models, variations in liquidity and operational performance. In this fluid backdrop, with numerous developments, we retain our liking for INDU, where the industry stalwart is set to retain stability, trading at an inexpensive FY16E/17F P/E of 7.6x/8.9x with an accompanying FY17F D/Y of 8.7%.
Yen exposure may prove painful: 14.8/16.5% CYTD/FYTD appreciation in the JpY vs. US$ underscores the impact sharp yen movements have on Auto sector profits. Despite the initiation of negative interest rate regime in Japan, strength in the Yen vs. US$ is driven by: 1) continued flight to safety as global risk sentiment is raised, 2) weakness in the US$ (dollar index declined 2.8%CYTD) are borne out of expectations that pervasive global risks may keep rates low, and 3) increasing divergence in global rates as disparity between global economic growth continued to widen.
New car re-rating: HCAR, on a trailing PE multiple, has traded at an average premium of 23% vs. INDU during the last three years (2013-2016). Digging deeper, this premium narrowed during Aug'14-Sep'15 coinciding with the launch of the 11th generation Corolla in Jul'14. In this regard, combining sales figures with average monthly trailing P/E for HCAR and INDU shows that a re-rating for INDU took place during the time where sales growth during the period was 3.5x (from 1,106 units in July'14 to 4,984 in Sept'15) depicting a super-growth phase characterized by the 'new model effect'. Concurrently, HCAR's sales grew from 1,505 units in July'14 to 2,001 units in Sept'15 amounting to growth of 33% only. The premium between the two started to widen once again from Oct'15 as higher sales growth for HCAR due to fleet demand (e.g. a new taxi service launched preferring Honda City) and expectations of an impending launch of the 10th generation Civic. Introduction of new models, followed by critical reception and increased off-take during the following super normal period can be considered to move P/E premiums/discounts between these two competitors.
Outlook: Incremental growth is expected to be built on: 1) passing-on of increased costs, either a factor of Yen appreciation (14.8% CYTD, averaging ~115 and ~108 for 3Q and 4QFY16) or raised input prices (CRC sheet steel prices up ~37%CYTD) and, 2) lower oil prices and heightened infrastructure spend, having propelled cumulative demand growth in the light commercial vehicles and Pick Up segments to the highest amongst all segments (32.3%YoY increase for 11MFY16). Additionally developing sales dynamic (dealer networks, after sales service centers), accompanied by strong indications of increased demand in the form of fleet sales are expected to solidify demand growth. Model launches on the horizon may include PSMC, and its plans to unveil either Ertiga or Celerio (1000CC variants) to replace the Cultus by 1QCY17, where the OEM has made a new model launch contingent on favorable terms in the ADP-II. As terms conducive to CAPEX by incumbent OEMs remained absent from the approved policy, PSMC's stance remains unresolved. Introduction of new models in the 1000CC segment will further revenues (new model effect remains strong) as the current model (Cultus) reaches stagnation in growth.
Investment Perspective: In the backdrop of current market segmentation (1000CC dominated by PSMC, while INDU has 67% overall market share) and product offerings, we favor INDU because: 1) superior pricing power, where the Toyota brand commands significant recognition and value compared to Suzuki, 2) better channels, after sales service network, dealership networks for insuring quality control raising the consumer's willingness to pay while attracting fleet sales and, 3) line-up of variants which may be introduced, faring better than new entrants, evident in the strong demand for Toyota's Belta and Vitz variants in the import market. In this fluid backdrop, with numerous developments, we retain our liking for INDU, where the industry stalwart is set to retain stability, trading at an inexpensive FY16E/17F P/E of 7.6x/8.9x with an accompanying FY17F D/Y of 8.7%.   
 
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on July 01, 2016, 10:56:40 AM
Last part from previous post.
 In this fluid backdrop, with numerous developments, we retain our liking for INDU, where the industry stalwart is set to retain stability, trading at an inexpensive FY16E/17F P/E of 7.6x/8.9x with an accompanying FY17F D/Y of 8.7%.   

Well he said indu set to retain stability, while on the other hand they increased p/e of indu to rise from 7.6 to 8.9X , that means at current price fy 16 earnings will b 123.6 rs and for  fy17 they expect 105.5 rs of earning. :confused1:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on July 01, 2016, 11:06:49 AM
Last part from previous post.
 In this fluid backdrop, with numerous developments, we retain our liking for INDU, where the industry stalwart is set to retain stability, trading at an inexpensive FY16E/17F P/E of 7.6x/8.9x with an accompanying FY17F D/Y of 8.7%.   

Well he said indu set to retain stability, while on the other hand they increased p/e of indu to rise from 7.6 to 8.9X , that means at current price fy 16 earnings will b 123.6 rs and for  fy17 they expect 105.5 rs of earning. :confused1:

they might have meant stable sales ..
 lower profits due to lower margins as yen has gotten stronger ...
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on July 01, 2016, 11:08:23 AM
OK thanks SBM
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: sars333 on July 14, 2016, 11:45:10 AM
Before launch of new models all broker houses give stance of sell or hold for that particular manufacturer sighting  reason that positives priced in .. when corolla was launched indus was around 450 i think and it went all the way to 1000 plus ... same case with Honda ...highly unreliable reports
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2016, 06:48:39 PM
AKD Daily
 
Autos: FY16 Industry sales climb to all-time high
Looking past the rather tepid June sales of 15,417 units (down 10%MoM/13%YoY), cumulative, FY16 sales/production remained robust, reaching 216,709/217,664 units. An increase of 20%YoY, the highest sales volumes of the past 16yrs and a continuation of the annual sales growth trend beginning from FY14, while amounting to 15/10/5yr historical sales CAGR of 18%/2%/8%. Assisted by the Rozgar scheme (till Feb'16), LCV sales made up the largest portion of total industry sales (~17%) since FY01, with 36,489 units being sold during FY16, rising 27%YoY, and affirming the industry consensus of infrastructure spend having strong spillover into the commercial auto space. Amongst the top three, PSMC (126,674 units sold, rising 28%YoY) mainly through higher Rozgar sales (Bolan/Ravi sales grew 27%/31%YoY) led growth, while INDU followed (63,977 units sold, rising 12%YoY) backed by resilient Corolla demand (sales of 57,452 units rising 12%). 1000CC segment grew 34%YoY with sales of 25,582units as 800 and below 1000cc segment exhibited 26%YoY for FY16 (67,239 units sold, led by Mehran and Bolan). Sticking with our "wait and see" stance for developments pertaining to: 1) new entrants induced by incentives under AIDP-II, 2) segmentation with possible deterioration of pricing discipline and, over the longer term, 3) unravelling of heightened infrastructure spend, we continue to favor PSMC (CY16E/17F P/E of 6.8x/6.6x) and INDU (FY16E/17F P/E of 8.2/9.7x).
 
PSMC: Selling 8,045 units (declining 11%MoM and 18%YoY) in June'16 while Rozgar Scheme aided FY16 sales growth of ~28%YoY for PSMC, backed by Ravi/Bolan sales rising by 31%/27%YoY (6,965/6,434 more units sold YoY). Mehran/Cultus/Wagon R sales remained sturdy, growing by 25%/16%/81%YoY during FY16.
 
INDU: June'16 sales reached 5,446 units (falling 2%MoM remaining flat YoY), amongst mundane offtake for Corolla (4,042 units sold diminishing by 22%MoM/14%YoY). FY16 Corolla sales of 57,452 units (rising 12%YoY) rest near our FY16 target of 58.4K units confirming our hypothesis of annual sales crossing last year's total (57,452 units sold in FY15).            .
HCAR: Predictably, sales growth tanked (down 27%MoM/23%YoY) in anticipation of the new Civic model.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on July 14, 2016, 06:50:15 PM
Elixir Insight


Automobile Assemblers

Passenger car sales surged by 19%YoY                               
·         As per the data published by PAMA, passenger car sales for the month of Jun-16 declined by 18%MoM, while dropped on YoY basis by 13% clocking in around 12,572units. Cumulative sales were up by 19%YoY.

·         Company wise data indicates that sales of all three OEMs witnessed slump in sales where INDU, PSMC and HCAR volumes dropped by 0%, 18% and 23%, respectively.

·         We expect automobile assemblers to witness volumetric expansion primarily supported through automobile financing and improving macro-economic climate.

As per the data recently published by PAMA, Passenger cars for the month of June-16 declined by 18% MoM to 12,572 units as compared to 15,278 units in the preceding month, while declined 13% YoY basis on account of cessation of both taxi scheme and HONDA-CIVIC production.  Availability of taxi scheme, surge in automobile financing and, improving macro-economic indicators led cumulative volumes to register an escalation of 19%YoY to 180,077 units. Trucks and buses segment recorded a whopping volumetric expansion in FY16, swelling by 35%YoY/78%YoY to 5,549 units and 1,010units, however in the month of Jun-16,  both of the segment posted sluggish growth of 3%/-6% to 649units and 103units. 2/3 wheelers volumes dropped by 4%YoY to 119,363units, while during the year volumes of the division accreted by massive 32%YoY owing to improving macro-economic indicators.

INDU - Sustaining novelty factor of Corolla; up by 12%YoY: Volumes of the company depicted a modest growth of 12%YoY to 63,977 (Highest since FY99) primarily led by corolla sales which sustained it novelty factor due to lack of competition from Honda variants. During the month, both premium variants i.e, Hilux and Fortuner depicted a massive expansion of 92%YoY and 56% which is likely attributable to anticipation of new taxes in the upcoming budget, while corolla sales declined by 14%Yo Y to 4,042units taking total sales to 5,446units. We expect volumes of the company to retract from its peak in FY16 owing to competition emanating from Honda CIVIC, although decline in volumes is expected to be majorly absorbed by surge in automobile financing; in our view.

Honda - Macro tailwinds supported volumes: Despite lack of new models, HCAR’s cumulative volumes recorded a healthy growth of 9%YoY clocking in at 25,726units. The increase in volumes was primarily attributable to surge in automobile financing in premium car segment (above 1300cc), however on monthly basis HCAR volumes declined by 23%YoY to 1,926units owing to cessation of Honda CIVIC. Going forward, we expect volumes to depict massive accretion in the backdrop of most anticipated Honda CIVIC model where our channel checks suggests bulk of pre-booking has already been done in 1.5L turbo-charged variant which is a unique and innovative variant launch in this segment.

PSMC - Glory period ends with the scheme: During the year PSMC witnessed a whopping volumetric expansion owing to contracts of taxi scheme which led total volumes to clock in at 126,674units; up by 28%YoY. Although after the cessation of said scheme (Feb-16) volumes of the company dropped massively, where in Jun-16 sales depicted a drop of 18%YoY to 8,045units. We expect the governmental schemes are unlikely to be announced in FY17, therefore PSMC sales are expected to depict lackluster trend. However, launch of SUZUKI-Celerio which is replacing “Cultus” later in FY17 can boost the segment volumes in the medium term.

Tractors – Postpone Scheme hurt sales in FY16: Pakistan tractor segment registered a huge decline of 26%YoY primarily due to delay in the launch of tractor scheme where Sindh/Punjab government announced subsidies of 29,000/25,000 units in FY17 budget.  AGTL and MTL volumes tumbled by 25%YoY and 26%YoY to 12,755units and 21,111units, respectively.

Trucks - Healthy economy buoyed volumes: During the year Trucks segment recorded whopping accretion in volumes of 35%YoY to 5,549units, while on monthly basis volumes increased massively by 27%YoY to 649units. We expect Truck segment to continue to depict exuberant volumes primarily due to heavy construction activity led by CPEC, moreover contracts from Pakistan Army is expected to be flowing in the industry to ensure security for the said investments.

Outlook: Going forward, we highlight optimistic outlook on volumetric side which would emanate from i) double-digit growth in automobile financing (up by 32%YoY) and, ii) Pro - Agri measures by the government in the recent budget, however on the margins front, steep appreciation of USD/JPY will keep a lid on the automobile assemblers margins at least in the medium term.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: invincible on July 26, 2016, 03:31:42 PM
Any negative development for this Sector?  :skeptic:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on July 27, 2016, 12:08:21 PM
Chinese interested in setting up auto unit: During a meeting with a six-member delegation of Chinese investors and industrialists, led by the director of renowned automobile manufacturer JAC Motors, Chen Zhi Qiang, matters of bilateral interest were discussed along with mutual promotion in different sectors. The Chinese delegates expressed their keen interest in setting up an automobile manufacturing unit in Punjab. The minister welcomed the proposal and said the Punjab government had set up a number of industrial zones in the province with tax exemptions to encourage investment, particularly Chinese investment since both countries had a remarkable opportunity for economic, industrial and business growth under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Source: http://tribune.com.pk/story/1150073/business-ties-chinese-interested-setting-auto-unit/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on July 27, 2016, 12:10:08 PM
Industry resents duty-free import of spare parts for Belarus tractor maker:  The local tractor industry has resented the Engineering Development Board’s (EDB) permission to Minsk Tractor Works Pakistan Ltd to assemble Belarus model MT 510 and import spare parts duty free. The 9th Auto Industry Development Committee (AIDC) meeting held on June 9, 2016 granted the status of new entrant to Minsk Tractor and also approved its localisation plan.
Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1273356/industry-resents-duty-free-import-of-spare-parts-for-belarus-tractor-maker
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 27, 2016, 01:08:27 PM
Chinese interested in setting up auto unit: During a meeting with a six-member delegation of Chinese investors and industrialists, led by the director of renowned automobile manufacturer JAC Motors, Chen Zhi Qiang, matters of bilateral interest were discussed along with mutual promotion in different sectors. The Chinese delegates expressed their keen interest in setting up an automobile manufacturing unit in Punjab. The minister welcomed the proposal and said the Punjab government had set up a number of industrial zones in the province with tax exemptions to encourage investment, particularly Chinese investment since both countries had a remarkable opportunity for economic, industrial and business growth under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Source: http://tribune.com.pk/story/1150073/business-ties-chinese-interested-setting-auto-unit/

Chinese automobile a direct challenge to crappy Pak Suzuki. Bahut bewaqoof bana liya Pakistanion ko.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on July 27, 2016, 06:07:34 PM
Pakistan Automobiles: Margins to decline upon yen volatility (FS)

Event

·         We preview FSL Auto universe June-16 quarter earnings maintaining our prognosis of gradual margin attrition. JPY appreciated 7% QoQ  on average against PKR and remained highly volatile on account of erratic global trends. We believe this will restrain earnings going forward. We keep our volumetric assumptions intact foreseeing increased level of sales in the coming years for the local automobile players.

·         We expect INDU to post 4QFY16 EPS of Rs. 28.23, taking FY earnings to 140.79/sh. (Up 21% YoY), which is to be accompanied by final DPS of 20. PSMC on the other hand is to post an EPS of Rs. 5.50 (down 69% YoY) in 2QCY16, taking 1HCY16 earnings to 17.0/sh.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: rsuleman on July 28, 2016, 07:00:42 PM
The Japanese Yen Is on the Verge of a Major Fall
By Brett Eversole
Thursday, July 28, 2016
The Japanese yen just had its worst week in years...

Seriously... the yen fell 4.1% two weeks ago, its worst one-week fall since 2009.

That alone is a rare event. But there's something even rarer about this big decline.

The computers behind our high-priced True Wealth Systems service helped spot this anomaly. And based on history, it will lead to even greater losses in the yen, starting now.

Let me explain...

A 4%-plus weekly fall is rare for a major currency. In the case of the yen, we've seen one-week losses of 4% or more only 11 times going all the way back to 1971.

That means these large one-week declines happen less than once every four years, on average. But there's something even rarer in this case...

Again, this isn't something most folks would notice... even folks who track the currency markets closely. But our True Wealth Systems computers helped spot it...

You see, most of the yen's large one-week declines came while it was already in a downtrend. But this month's major loss came after the yen had been making new highs.

Specifically, the yen hit a 52-week high at the beginning of July... and then fell 4% in a week starting just a few days later. That situation has only happened four other times since 1971... making it incredibly rare.

Importantly, these were not good times to bet on a higher yen. All four occasions led to losses over the next year... and major under performance versus the typical return for the yen. Take a look...
                           1-Month       6-Month    12-Month
Return after extreme   -1.5%   -0.4%   -5.1%

All periods                   0.2%            1.4%   2.8%

A 5.1% loss might not seem large... But remember, this is a currency. Currencies tend to move glacially compared with other markets.

Even so, this shows a total underperformance of nearly 8% versus the typical one-year return for the yen. That's huge for a currency.

What is happening here is simple: The yen was in an uptrend. It was making new 52-week highs. But then it suffered a terrible weekly return. And history says this usually signals the end of a major move higher.

Is a new downtrend beginning? We can't know for sure. But history shows that betting on a higher yen today is a bad idea.

The smart money says the yen will likely fall even further over the next year.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 29, 2016, 12:48:14 AM
Hence good days for HINO may be just around the corner. Inshallah
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on July 29, 2016, 11:53:30 AM
The Japanese Yen Is on the Verge of a Major Fall
By Brett Eversole
Thursday, July 28, 2016
The Japanese yen just had its worst week in years...

Seriously... the yen fell 4.1% two weeks ago, its worst one-week fall since 2009.

That alone is a rare event. But there's something even rarer about this big decline.

The computers behind our high-priced True Wealth Systems service helped spot this anomaly. And based on history, it will lead to even greater losses in the yen, starting now.

Let me explain...

A 4%-plus weekly fall is rare for a major currency. In the case of the yen, we've seen one-week losses of 4% or more only 11 times going all the way back to 1971.

That means these large one-week declines happen less than once every four years, on average. But there's something even rarer in this case...

Again, this isn't something most folks would notice... even folks who track the currency markets closely. But our True Wealth Systems computers helped spot it...

You see, most of the yen's large one-week declines came while it was already in a downtrend. But this month's major loss came after the yen had been making new highs.

Specifically, the yen hit a 52-week high at the beginning of July... and then fell 4% in a week starting just a few days later. That situation has only happened four other times since 1971... making it incredibly rare.

Importantly, these were not good times to bet on a higher yen. All four occasions led to losses over the next year... and major under performance versus the typical return for the yen. Take a look...
                           1-Month       6-Month    12-Month
Return after extreme   -1.5%   -0.4%   -5.1%

All periods                   0.2%            1.4%   2.8%

A 5.1% loss might not seem large... But remember, this is a currency. Currencies tend to move glacially compared with other markets.

Even so, this shows a total underperformance of nearly 8% versus the typical one-year return for the yen. That's huge for a currency.

What is happening here is simple: The yen was in an uptrend. It was making new 52-week highs. But then it suffered a terrible weekly return. And history says this usually signals the end of a major move higher.

Is a new downtrend beginning? We can't know for sure. But history shows that betting on a higher yen today is a bad idea.

The smart money says the yen will likely fall even further over the next year.


It's all base less report yen gains suddenly  due to brexit then it falls 4%, this report highlights only fall.

Yen getting higher at 103.5 now. Yen surges after markets are disappointed by BoJ's announcement. The key interest rate was held unchanged at -0.1% while there were speculations that it could be pushed further negative to -0.3%. Meanwhile, BOJ did announced addition easing measures to boost the economy. The central bank will by JPY 6T of ETFs, up from JPY 3.3T. But the total size of asset purchase will stay at JPY 80T a year.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 29, 2016, 12:30:36 PM
Actually on another its 103.36
so urs right
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 29, 2016, 12:33:00 PM
And one of the bests sites says,
104.93 to a $
Dollar has gotten very strong these past two days btw.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: stuka on July 29, 2016, 12:48:27 PM
Yen Jumps as BOJ Disappointment Sinks Bonds; Europe Stocks Gain

Kuroda expands ETF purchase target, leaving policy rate steady
BOJ decision will be followed by Europe stress tests, U.S. GDP
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The Bank of Japan’s most anticipated policy announcement in years left investors underwhelmed, sparking a surge in the yen and sending Japanese government bonds to their biggest retreat since 2013. Oil slumped, while European stocks rose.

Japan’s currency jumped 1.9 percent against the dollar after the BOJ kept its government-bond buying target and policy interest rate unchanged, opting instead to increase exchange-traded fund purchases. Yields on 10-year JGBs climbed 9 basis points. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.5 percent as oil headed for the biggest monthly drop in a year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent, led by banks.

A month of big swings in the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market is set to end with a bang as markets digest the BOJ’s decision, upcoming results of bank stress tests in Europe and second-quarter economic growth figures in America. Investors are also watching corporate earnings from UBS Group AG to Exxon Mobil Corp. for further clues on how global monetary stimulus is filtering through the economy.
The BOJ’s expanded stimulus “was as minimal as possible,” said Stefan Worrall, director of equity cash sales at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo. “The tension was extremely high going into the announcement, and the market has reacted in a way that has perhaps reflected that built-up tension.”
Kuroda led his board in voting to expand its ETF program to 6 trillion yen ($58 billion) a year, the BOJ said. Most economists had predicted more from the BOJ, given diminishing inflation expectations and weak growth. Almost two thirds had forecast a rate cut and just over half predicted a further acceleration of the monetary base.
The announcement comes after decisions this month from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to leave their key interest rates unchanged as they assessed the economic fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.
“The BOJ’s disappointment, which also follows the ECB and BOE’s recent decisions to hold off easing, may just cause markets to re-assess whether they had front-run things too much,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore.
Currencies
The yen climbed to 103.34 per dollar at 8:10 a.m. London time. It strengthened against all 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, bringing its gain against the greenback this year to about 14 percent.
“The BOJ is too hesitant,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based global investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages more than $110 billion. “Perhaps the BOJ wants more help from the government in terms of the stimulus and they’re not prepared to do anything in advance.”
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiled a 28 trillion yen fiscal stimulus package two days ago that will now bear the main burden for stoking growth and inflation. The BOJ had come under increasing pressure from the government to make a move that dovetailed with its own package, making it tough for Kuroda and his team to leave policy entirely unchanged.
Away from the yen, foreign exchange markets were more subdued. South Korea’s won strengthened 0.4 percent against the dollar to lead gains among emerging-market currencies. The Chinese yuan slipped 0.1 percent, paring a weekly gain. The euro increased 0.2 percent.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year JGBs increased to negative 0.18 percent, while rates on similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries climbed 3 basis points to 1.54 percent.

“The market was very unimpressed,” said John Gorman, head of non-yen rates trading for Asia and the Pacific at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo.
JGBs pared some of their losses after Kuroda said at a post-announcement press conference that the BOJ has room to purchase more bonds and reduce interest rates further into negative territory.
The central bank’s decision followed a slew of key economic indicators for June released Friday, showing household spending slumped while industrial production rose more than economists forecast. Consumer prices dropped for a fourth consecutive month, illustrating how far prices are from the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target.
In America, the economy probably grew at a 2.5 percent annualized rate from April through June, according to the median estimate of 76 forecasters before Friday’s release.
Stocks
Japanese stocks fell as much as 1.4 percent after the BOJ decision, before recovering to close with a gain of 1.2 percent.
“The ETF purchase is directly good for the market,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The BOJ didn’t go further into negative rates, so it’s good for the financial stocks.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell for the first time this week, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 1.5 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 1.3 percent. S&P 500 Index futures slipped 0.3 percent, with U.S. stocks set to find some support from better-than-estimated results from Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. after markets closed on Thursday.
UBS helped spur gains in European bank shares, rising 2.3 percent after second-quarter net income topped analyst estimates.
Commodities
Oil headed for the biggest monthly decline in a year as brimming crude and fuel inventories spurred a retreat toward $40 a barrel. Futures in New York dropped 0.6 percent, extending their July loss to 15 percent.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,334.31 an ounce after earlier rising in the wake of the BOJ decision. Industrial metals retreated, with copper losing 0.8 percent in London and nickel falling 1.9 percent.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on July 29, 2016, 12:51:39 PM
Actually on another its 103.36
so urs right

And one of the bests sites says,
104.93 to a $
Dollar has gotten very strong these past two days btw.

Its 103.7 http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy live

Strong yen from 125 to 103 currently is -ve for auto margins
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 29, 2016, 01:11:07 PM
Isnt Oanda.com a reliable source.?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farzooq on July 29, 2016, 01:15:08 PM
Isnt Oanda.com a reliable source.?

yes
https://www.oanda.com/currency/live-exchange-rates/USDJPY/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 29, 2016, 02:03:35 PM
 Yen is off its strongest on 21/7. and off its weakest as well at 106 i guess. Even with all the help from BOJ Yen has shown alot of strength these past days. Im just happy its better suited to me than on 30/6 ::) Lets see how the next few months treat the usd/yen parity
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Atif1 on July 30, 2016, 04:31:38 PM
Yen going stronger and stronger on BOJ announcement previous week.
Autos will get hit sooner or later
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Alpha on July 30, 2016, 06:29:37 PM
Yen going stronger and stronger on BOJ announcement previous week.
Autos will get hit sooner or later

Yen strenthen more than 3% in a single day,all are expected to take a beating except HCAR as it showed literally zero hit on its margins in last 2 quarters.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Farhan Kermani on July 30, 2016, 08:37:01 PM
Yes the strongest against dollar since 2011.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: invincible on July 31, 2016, 11:38:09 AM
How much GhnL n Ghni can be impacted by the strong Yen?
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Salammembers on August 06, 2016, 12:00:15 AM
How much GhnL n Ghni can be impacted by the strong Yen?

yen aab neechaay bhai,
nikkei was unchanged at close,
now up by 200   :o
monday koo auto sector Green :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: rsuleman on August 10, 2016, 07:26:47 AM
Court stops implementation: Carmakers get stay order against auto policy
By Zafar Bhutta
Published: August 10, 2016
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1159070/court-stops-implementation-carmakers-get-stay-order-auto-policy/
ISLAMABAD: Two key players in the automobile industry – Indus Motor and Pak Suzuki Motor Company – have challenged the new auto policy and got a stay order from the Sindh High Court against its implementation, indicating they are not immediately inclined towards offering technologically improved and cheaper vehicles.
Pak Suzuki Motor – the Pakistan arm of Japanese carmaker Suzuki – has a monopoly in the small car segment while the market for heavy-engine vehicles is split mostly between Honda Atlas Cars and Indus Motor – the makers of Toyota Corolla.
Hyundai, Suzuki’s last competitor in the market, has not been producing vehicles since early 2014.
The new auto policy, besides giving guidelines on timely delivery to customers, calls for the development and enforcement of safety regulations, compulsory installation of immobilisers in vehicles to stop incidences of theft and putting in place a product recall system in line with global practices.
The policy offers some incentives to new entrants for breaking the monopoly of existing car manufacturers. Consumer welfare is a key element of the policy announced by the government in March this year.
According to officials aware of the development, Indus Motor was to install immobilisers in its XLI (basic) variants, Suzuki in Cultus and Mehran models and Honda Atlas Cars in the City variant.
However, the carmakers have refused to install the immobilisers immediately, arguing it is not possible for them to complete the task in a short time. They require six months to one year as vehicle engines need to be changed for putting in place the anti-theft device.
“We need three to five months to receive the delivery of car engines and after that it will be possible for us to install the immobilisers,” the carmakers told the government, adding they would be able to install the device in new car models.
According to the officials, the Suzuki management told the government that they were planning to replace Mehran cars with some other models, therefore, the immobilisers could not be made part of this model.
However, the company agreed that it would introduce the immobilisers in the new models.
Booking and delivery
In an attempt to address complaints of delay in the delivery of locally assembled vehicles, the government has decided that initial payment at the time of booking should not be more than 50% of the cost of vehicle and the price and delivery schedule – not exceeding two months – must be finalised at that time.
In case of delay, the company will be required to offer a discount at the rate of Kibor plus 2% on the date of delivery – a move aimed at shortening the time period.
Before the announcement of the policy, buyers were forced to pay a substantial amount, sometimes 100% of the total cost, for booking vehicles and then wait for a long time before delivery. If the price escalated in the meantime, the consumers were also required to pay the extra amount on the delivery date.
This had helped the black market flourish where consumers, looking for prompt delivery, were forced to pay a premium.
However, the new auto policy carries varying measures aimed at safeguarding the interest of consumers.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 10th, 2016.

Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on August 10, 2016, 08:32:01 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/company-news/235:pakistan/72994:a39high-hopes-with-auto-policycompetition-will-break-up-monopoliesa39-says-al-haj-faw-motors-ceo/?date=2016-08-08
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: Muneer on August 10, 2016, 09:25:24 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1159070/court-stops-implementation-carmakers-get-stay-order-auto-policy/
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 10, 2016, 07:58:58 PM
Flash Note


Automobile Assemblers
Automobile Numbers for July-16
·            As per the recently published data by PAMA, Passenger cars for the month of Jul-16 declined by 11%MoM to 12,147 units as compared to 13,638 units in the preceding month, while declining 7% YoY basis on account of cessation of taxi scheme. Volumes for trucks and buses (i.e. GHNL, GHNI) stood out registering a growth of 50%/304% YoY respectively. Whereas, 2/3 wheelers grew by steady 6% YoY to 106,625units.

·            Company wise data suggests, sales of all three OEMs witnessed a decline where volumes for INDU, PSMC and HCAR declined by 2%, 19% and 3%, respectively.

·            Going forward, we expect volumetric growth to remain sanguine on the back of i) double-digit growth in automobile financing currently and, ii) Pro - Agri measures by the government in the recent budget. On the other hand sturdy USD/JPY parity and rebound in international commodity prices pose a potent threat in the absence of proportionate price increase in the short term.
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 10, 2016, 08:10:20 PM
Pakistan Short Report : (Aug 10, 2016)
Pakistan Automobile: Jul 2016 car sales at 13,932 units down 12%

According to latest figures, Pakistan local car assemblers (including LCVs, Vans and Jeeps) sold 13,932 units in July 2016, a decline of 12% YoY. The numbers were slightly lower than our estimate. We attribute this decline due to extended holidays as a result of Eid which translated into lesser working days.
We expect car sales to remain robust in FY17 in spite of no Taxi Scheme. We remain Overweight on the sector. Our top picks include Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC), which will be launching a new model, Celerio (1,000cc category) in later half of this year, and Indus Motors (INDU), due to continued demand for Corolla. We have a ‘Hold’ call on HCAR.
PSMC: Taxi scheme complete
Sales of PSMC fell 19% YoY in Jul 2016 to 7,633 units. The decline in overall units was due to culmination of Punjab Taxi Scheme earlier this year, as expected.
Excluding taxi units (Ravi and Bolan), sales have grown 36% YoY to 6,002 units.
INDU: Toyota Corolla remain robust
INDU sold 4,178 units in Jul 2016, declining 2% YoY. This can be attributed to lower number of working days compared to last year.
It is important to note that delivery time for new corolla model continues and varies depending on the variant.
HCAR: New model of Civic to propel HCAR sales
HCAR sold 2,121 units in the outgoing month registering 15% YoY increase. Sales remained strong MoM too as they grew by 10%, despite less number of working days.
We believe that Honda City is the main contributor to HCAR’s sales growth and volumes of new model of Honda Civic are expected to pick up considering demand from pre-booking and response at launch. Civic’s launch attracted attention from prospective buyers with more interest towards the 1.5L Turbo variant, which is priced at ~Rs3.0mn; the 1.8L variant is priced at ~Rs2.4mn.
Millat Tractors (MTL) & Al-Ghazi (AGTL): Tractor sales dented
Pakistan tractor segment posted a decline of 12% YoY in outgoing month to clock-in at 1,441 units.
The decline in outgoing month was in-line with historical trend where sales remained subdued in Jul 2016.
Millat tractors (MTL) posted sales growth of 12% YoY while Al-Ghazi tractors (AGTL) witnessed a decline of 26% YoY in their sales volumes during outgoing month.
Tractor sales are expected to pick up going forward as there is clarity in subsidy scheme, roll out of Kissan Package and improving farmer income after pickup in commodity prices.
Moreover, this year’s budget is full of incentives to the agriculture sector, including reduction in urea prices and financing rates. This should help improve liquidity with farmers resulting in better offtake of tractors going forward, we believe.
Trucks & Buses segment of Pakistan automobile sector has posted an increase of 115% YoY to clock-in at 700 units in Jul 2016.
We attribute this surge in demand to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and improving law & order situation in the country.

Topline
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: SBM on August 11, 2016, 09:43:31 AM
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Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: MZ on August 11, 2016, 05:49:43 PM
AKD Daily
 
Autos: Cold start to FY17
Unexciting and subdued, July'16 auto numbers offer more of the same, with overall industry sales amounting to 13,932 units a slide of -15.7%MoM/-12.4%YoY, a seasonal trend (past 4yr average MoM decline of 30% between July and June sales) heightened in the absence of Rozgar scheme sales. Ex-Rozgar sales (assuming 50,000 units were produced equally over 14 month period), industry sales grew 13%YoY, while industry car sales in July'16 rested at 12,147 units a decline of ~11%MoM/7%YoY. Production levels for the month of July remained muted at 57%/106%/47% for PSMC/INDU/HCAR, while 7MCY16 cumulative production amounted to capacity utilization of 64%/130%/55%. Developments on the legal front surrounding particular provisions of the Auto Policy deemed inapplicable by a ruling of the Sindh High Court, only highlight a flaw in the Policy itself where the installation of immobilizers by July'16 went against technical feasibilities, particularly for older variants. Revival of sick units, moves by new entrants to take advantage of incentives included in the AIDP-II and threats to pricing power of incumbent OEMs remain major flashpoints for the space. We retain our liking for PSMC, which despite being hurt by JpY strength, has recently increased prices to maintain margins and trades at relatively inexpensive CY16/17 PE of 7.4/7.2x.   
 
PSMC: Selling 7,633 units (declining ~17%MoM and ~19%YoY) in July'16, where all variants depicted a fall in sales on monthly basis, while Wagon R/ Cultus/ Swift sales grew 1.1x/17%/12%YoY.
 
INDU: July'16 sales fell by 23%MoM/2%YoY to 4,178 units as a mundane offtake scenario for the Corolla (3,678 units sold diminishing by 9%MoM/5%YoY) begins to take shape.
 
HCAR: Sales growth of 10%MoM was recorded with sales of 2,121 units of the City and Civic in July'16, in anticipation of the new Civic model. With the launch of HCAR's new Civic variant concluded, and news reports indicating a hefty order book, revival in demand for 1,300CC niche offering may prop up capacity utilization, and hasten a decline in competing Corolla sales. On the flipside, prices for the new Civic, particularly the Turbo 1.5 VTEC CVT variant, remain far more expensive than the high end Corolla Altis Grande CVT-I 1.8 (PkR2.38mn ex-factory), feeding into our stable outlook (vs. sharp decline) for Corolla sales going forward.        .
 
Outlook: Developments on the legal front surrounding particular provisions of the Auto Policy deemed inapplicable by a ruling of the Sindh High Court, only highlight a flaw in the Policy itself where the installation of immobilizers by July'16 went against technical feasibilities, particularly for older variants. Revival of sick units, moves by new entrants to take advantage of incentives included in the AIDP-II and threats to pricing power of incumbent OEMs remain major flashpoints for the space. We retain our liking for PSMC, which despite being hurt by JpY strength, has recently increased prices to maintain margins and trades at relatively inexpensive CY16/17 PE of 7.4/7.2x
Title: Re: Auto Sector
Post by: alidxb on August 11, 2016, 05:52:51 PM
Seasonality drags sales in July; price increase expected
As per the latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), total car sales for Jul-16 posted a decline of 10% MoM (down 12% YoY) with Honda Atlas Cars standing out, up 10% MoM w