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Pak Equities / Re: ASL -- Aisha Steel Mills Ltd
« Last post by Shakir123 on Today at 05:04:33 PM »
Seniors kuch tu batoa kahan seye chalay ga aur target price kiya hai
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Pakistan Market Wrap

Closing Bell - Maintained Positive Streak!

KSE100 Index 46,712  |  High 47,086  |  Low 46,116  |  Change +380  |  Value USD104mn  |  Volume 107mn

Pakistan Equities maintained its winning streak after the long Eid holidays albeit in volatile trading with benchmark KSE100 Index settling above 46,700 level, up 0.8%. Market witnessed a choppy session in early trading on listless volumes where Index also entered in the red zone for a brief period. Thereafter, institutional value-buying in major sectors across Financials, Cements and Oils led Index to make an intra-day high above 47K level followed by mild profit-taking as the day progressed. Major contribution to gains came from Habib Bank HBL PA +5%, United Bank UBL PA +4.1%, Oil & Gas Dev Co OGDC PA +3.8%, Dawood Herculues DAWH PA +5%, Pakistan Petroleum PPL PA +2.5%, Lucky Cement LUCK PA +1.5% and MCB Bank MCB PA +1.9%. Activity as expected was most focused in small and mid cap plays where stocks to the likes of TRG Pakistan TRG PA -4.9%, Bank of Panjab BOP +2.5% and K-Electric KEL PA -2.1% dominated the volumes chart on retail churning.

See flows continuing to guide broader market direction while illiquid sideboard plays are expected to see unusual moves tomorrow ahead of fiscal year end close on likely window dressing.
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Pak Equities / Re: Pak Investors Guide - Trading portfolio !
« Last post by Shakir123 on Today at 04:42:34 PM »
Only Aisha InshAllah 50
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Pak Equities / Re: SEARL -- The Searle Company Limited
« Last post by BlueClub on Today at 04:32:47 PM »
That's a record low SEARL has gone in a single go.

Any reason for this happening?

I am thinking of doubling my holdings in SEARL if it's another LL, good idea?
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Pak Equities / Re: Pak Investors Guide - Trading portfolio !
« Last post by SB786 on Today at 04:13:01 PM »
Dear seniors,

Can someone please recommend a portfolio for investment of Rs. 2 million.

Out of the Rs. 2 million, would prefer to invest 1.5 million in value stock(s) for regular dividend income. This can be invested long term 1-2 years.

The remaining 0.5 million to be invested in growth stocks for swing trading to take advantage of price movements. Ideally, will try to book profits with money for relatively short-time.

Thanks.
sazew, FFC, FFBL, SML, GHNI
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Pak Equities / Re: SAZEW -- Sazger Engineering Works Ltd
« Last post by SB786 on Today at 04:10:57 PM »
250 broken,
300 your're up.
 :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1:
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Pak Equities / Re: GWLC -- Gharibwal Cement
« Last post by karehman on Today at 04:10:47 PM »
 huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu

PLUS market main LL per hay agar market gir gaye tou phir kya hoga
 :skeptic: :skeptic: :skeptic:
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Pak Equities / Re: TRG -- The Resources Group of Pakistan
« Last post by sumbul on Today at 03:52:06 PM »
What is the problem with TRG?  huhu

Might touch 1 year low around Rs 32/- with no good news in sight  :down:
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Pak Equities / Re: TRG -- The Resources Group of Pakistan
« Last post by ASHIQKHAN on Today at 03:50:00 PM »
What is the problem with TRG?  huhu
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Pak Equities / Re: Exchange rate weakness & KSE-100
« Last post by MZ on Today at 03:41:46 PM »
Elixir Insight


Pakistan Economy

         CAD widened by 2.78x YoY to USD8.93bn in 11MFY17 owing to 14% YoY jump in imports and stagnant remittances / exports growth. On monthly basis, CAD jumped 28% MoM to USD1.58bn in May’17 lead by 13% MoM jump in imports in spite of 9% MoM / 18% MoM growth in exports / remittances.

·         While FDI grew by 23% YoY to USD2.03bn in 11MFY17, it remained relatively miniscule in comparison with widening CAD to support BOP. On monthly basis, FDI grew by impressive 153% YoY / 124% MoM to USD295mn.

·         CAD is not expected to show significant improvement in near term on account of increased machinery imports related to CPEC projects and stagnant exports/remittances. Thus, we believe that CAD would continue to pressure already strained FX reserves and it is a question of when the next spurt of currency depreciation materialize.

·         We target PKR at 111-114 by the end of FY18

CAD widens 2.78x YoY: According to SBP’s recently released Balance of Payment (BOP) data, Current Account Deficit (CAD) has grown 2.78x YoY to USD8.93bn in 11MFY17 vs. USD3.21bn in 11MFY16. This has been a result of (1) 14% YoY growth in imports (USD50.36bn in 11MFY17 vs. USD44.18bn in 11MFY16), (2) remittances dropping by 2.13% YoY (USD 17.46bn in 11MFY17 vs. USD17.84bn in 11MFY16, and (3) flatter exports down 1% YoY to USD24.92bn in 11MFY17 vs. USD 25.14bn in 11MFY16.

Jump in imports has been primarily attributable to surge in machinery imports (particularly related to power generation) and petroleum imports (owing to increased demand for POL products and increased import of LNG). Whereas remittances have remained under pressure primarily due to 3% YoY decline in remittances from GCC countries (constituting 63% of total remittances) as the oil dependent economies bear the brunt of lower oil prices. On monthly basis, CAD jumped 28% MoM to USD1.58bn in May’17 vs. USD1.23bn in Apr’17 lead by 13% MoM jump in imports (USD5.40bn in May’17 vs. USD 4.77bn in Apr’17) in spite of 9% MoM / 18% MoM growth in exports / remittances (USD2.33bn / USD1.87bn in May’17 vs. USD2.14bn / USD1.54bn in Apr’17).

FDI growth falls behind its potential: FDI grew by 23% YoY to USD2.03bn in 11MFY17 vs. USD1.65bn in 11MFY16. Nonetheless, it remained relatively miniscule in comparison with widening CAD, to support BOP. Chinese foreign investment which constituted 43% of total FDI grew by 34% YoY to USD921mn in 11MFY17 vs. USD657mn in 11MFY16. However, this amount significantly lags behind the potential entailed in USD57bn CPEC projects. On monthly basis, FDI grew by impressive 153% YoY / 124% MoM to USD 295mn vs. USD116mn / USD132mn in May’16 / Apr’17.

BOP/Currency Outlook: CAD is not expected to show significant improvement in near term on account of increased machinery imports related to CPEC projects and stagnant exports/remittances. In this regard, the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has reached record high level of 127.4 (indicating PKR to be overvalued by 27.4% against the basket of trade weighted currencies).

However, we would like to highlight that it is due to (1) shortcoming in methodology not accounting for real interest rates, and (2) structural changes in (heavyweight trading partners) EU/UK economies translating into slide in EUR/GBP owing to low interest rate policy/Brexit, respectively. On the other hand, the Real Bilateral Exchange Rate (RBER) against USD stands at 109 (indicating PKR to be overvalued by 9% against USD). Based on this methodology, fair value of PKR/USD exchange rate stands at 114, compared to last closing inter-bank rate of PKR104.8/USD.

While Rupee has recently sustained the pressures and has remained stable for the last two years, it should be noted that Pak Rupee has historically remained stable for months and then exhibits a sharp spurt to overcome the brewing pressures in BOP. We thus believe that based on the ongoing strain on CAD and the resultant pressure on FX reserves, it is a question of when the next spurt of currency depreciation materializes; which may be around the next general elections due in 4Q/FY18. We thus target Pak Rupee at PKR111-114 by end of FY18.
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