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The Market ! => Pak Equities => Topic started by: Toshi on October 10, 2008, 01:32:51 PM

Title: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on October 10, 2008, 01:32:51 PM
All About Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on October 23, 2009, 12:20:40 PM
PSMC: 9M2009 EPS expected at Rs3.12
PSMC in its 9M2009 result is expected to post earnings of
Rs257mn (EPS of Rs3.12), compared to profits of Rs637mn
(EPS of Rs7.74) last year, down 60%YoY. Declining
volumetric sales (down 56%YoY) are likely to drive down net
sales for the company by 45%YoY to Rs18.1bn, despite an
average increase of 24-26% in car prices. Moreover, rupee
depreciation of 25% against yen has resulted in inflated cost
of production for the company (COGS/car up 24%YoY).
Hence, gross profits are set to decline by 49% with gross
margins falling by 24bps to 2.7%. However, admin and
distribution expenses are likely to decline by 17%YoY,
providing some support to the faltering bottomline.
In 3Q2009 alone, PSMC is expected to post profits of
Rs96mn (EPS of Rs1.16) as against earnings of Rs69mn
(EPS of Rs0.84) in 2Q2009, up 38%QoQ. Despite 49%
increase in net sales due to higher volumetric sales
(56%QoQ), rupee depreciation (6%QoQ) and lower car prices
kept gross margins under check. Hence, gross profit is
expected to arrive at Rs150mn, up 2%QoQ with margins
falling by 83bps to 1.8%.
With PSMC currently trading at 2009E and 2010F PE of 14.4x
and 9.5x, respectively, we maintain our ‘Sell’ stance on the
scrip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: arauf on November 01, 2009, 11:49:54 AM
AKD recommends buying with target price of 160  :o
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on November 26, 2009, 11:44:30 AM
Depressed sales and heightened cost pressures
were to primarily blame for a 67% decline in 9M2009
earnings of Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC).
Profit for the period stood at Rs212mn (EPS of
Rs2.6) as against earnings of Rs637mn (EPS of
Rs7.7) in the corresponding period last year.
However, in 3rd quarter alone, the company’s profits
were up by 33%YoY to Rs51mn, though down 24% on QoQ
basis. With below than expected 9M2009 result, we are
revising down our 2009E earnings estimate by 41% to Rs5.6
per share. Consequently, trading at a 2009E PE of 16.2x, we
maintain our ‘Sell’ recommendation on the scrip.

Rupee volatility drive down earnings by 67%YoY


Despite an average increase of 22% in car prices by PSMC, a
56% fall in volumetric sales drove down net sales by 46%YoY
to Rs17.8bn in 9M2009. With rupee depreciating against yen
and US$ by 25% & 16%, respectively, cost of production/car
was up 22%YoY. Resultantly, gross profit was down 47% with
gross margins declining by 5bps to 2.9%. Other Income also
remained depressed during the period, down 39%YoY to
Rs432mn leading to a 67% fall in the profits of the company.
Considering the 3rd quarter alone, the state of affairs slightly
improved as profits were up 33%YoY. This was mainly due to
a 21% increase in average car prices whereas cost of
production/car rose by only 18%. Hence, gross profit arrived
at Rs176mn as against gross loss of Rs23mn last year. Other
income, however registered a decline of 29%. Resultantly, net
margin was up only 13bps compared to a 249bps
improvement in gross margins.

Net sales for 4Q to increase on sequential basis

The October sales painted a positive picture for PSMC as
sales were up 18%MoM. Despite weak volumes expected in
Nov and Dec (customers opting to delay their purchases until
after the New Year), nominal sales are expected to increase
by 7% thanks to Rs5-15k increase in car prices. Additionally,
PSMC had rolled out 5 units of Suzuki Swift in October which
is expected to be launched during the second half of January.
This is expected to improve PSMC’s market share going
forward, due to its anticipated untapped 1300CC hatch bag
positioning.

2009 EPS revised to Rs5.6 / 4Q earnings intact

With below than expected 9M2009 result, we are revising
down full year 2009 earnings by 41% to Rs5.6/share from
Rs9.4/share earlier. However, we keep our fourth quarter
earnings estimate intact and expect earnings to grow 4x over
the previous quarter to Rs3/share at the back of easing cost
pressures and rise in car prices.

Recommendation: ‘Sell’

Persistent yen appreciation and rise in steel prices remain a
cause for concern for the industry. On the other hand,
monetary easing will be the key in stimulating car sales. With
PSMC trading at 2009E of 16.2x, we maintain our ‘Sell’
recommendation on the scrip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on November 26, 2009, 12:29:41 PM
Investment Theme ON TABLE
ALFALAH Securities STANCE on PSMC

PSMC the largest auto assembler in the country is on its way to gradual
recovery of both volumes and margins. EBITDA margins of the company
are estimated to increase to 5.4% by year end as against 2.7% in CY08
showing an improvement in operating performance of the company. The
volumes are estimated to drop by 45% during CY09 but thereafter will
improve at a CY09-12 CAGR of 22% mainly due to low base effect and an
expectation of easing off monetary regime. The launch of new model
Suzuki swift in 1300cc segment will help generate additional volumes, as
this is the segment where PSMC’s presence is negligible. The stock is
attractive on valuation having a DCF based fair value of PkR 112.73 offering
an upside potential of 30.43% from the current market price. The stock
trades at prospective CY10 earnings, BV and FCF multiples of 9.93, 0.47
and 4.18 respectively as against the CY04-09 historical prospective average
respective multiples of 12.39, 1.56 and 7.13. The stock offers CY09-12
tremendous earnings CAGR of 59% as well. We recommend a BUY.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on November 27, 2009, 09:23:55 PM
Pak Suzuki urges complete ban on used car import


KARACHI: Pak Suzuki is about to launch a new hatchback model car next year, disclosed Hirofumi Nagao, CEO & MD of Pak Suzuki, in an exclusive interview with The News.

He said that initially the new model will be available in petrol but later as per demand it will also be available in CNG. It will be a manual car and if the demand for automatic transmission increases we can think about automatic transmission.

Pak Suzuki’s annual production capacity on two-shift basis is 150,000 units. “We have already increased the production capacity from 50,000 units in 2003 to 150,000 in 2007 ie 300 per cent. This production capacity is sufficient to cater to Suzuki demand in Pakistan market,” he added.

The ban on five-year-old used cars will help local manufacturers to boost sales and when volumes grow the production cost will go down, thus benefiting the end user. From five years the ban is now applicable to three-year old used cars but the used car import should be completely banned or the import duty should be very high so that used car import should stop.

Sharing his experience Nagao said: “When I was in India in the 1990’s there was very high duty on imports so this helped boost the local industry. The same should be done here in Pakistan to help the local auto manufacturer.”

The import of used cars does not bring in any investment nor it creates employment on the other hand local auto manufacturers have invested heavily in the country and thousands of employees are working in plants, Hirofumi Nagao said.

The global economic recession has also affected the auto sector in Pakistan. The other major factors contributing to slowdown in auto sector are high mark-up rates which have reduced auto financing from 70 per cent to 20 per cent, weak Pak rupee that has increased the cost of imported components, increase in utility charges has caused rise in production cost and the absence of long term auto policy, different kinds of taxes and security issues.

All the said factors contributed in reduction of sales, Nagao said, “we had to reduce our production as per market demand. Here I would like to mention one more thing that to benefit the customer we never passed on the major economic recession to them, we suffered a lot and still we are suffering from this recession we have reduced our prices so much, means we are facing global recession but we are continuously benefiting the customer.”

The recent increase in price is very minimal and it will not affect the customers much as the Pak Suzuki is still bearing most of the cost and it will not affect the sales. “We see improvement in sales in the near future,” Nagao said.

He added that total investment so far made is Rs10.3 billion. We do have our expansion plan intact. We have already acquired 125 acres for building another plant.

But it all depends upon future demand, future Government policies and future country and global conditions.

He said that Pak Suzuki is pioneer in automobile business in Pakistan. We have completed 25 years in developing motorization in Pakistan. We hold more than 50 per cent market share. These successes could not be achieved without support of Suzuki Motor Corporation Japan. One of the major areas benefited through this collaboration is technology transfer. We have successfully launched many new models and have highest percentage of localization in our products. Without technology transfer this could not have been possible.

About the law and order situation he said, “we Japanese believed that Punjab side like Lahore, Rawalpindi and adjacent areas are more peaceful and safer areas as compare to Sindh specially Karachi but since I have joined last year the perception has changed I feel that Karachi is much safer than Lahore or Rawalpindi as far as law and order situation is concerned.”

Through out the world when auto industry was suffering government came forward to support and assist but here though government is there to assist but auto industry need more cooperation to over come this situation.

Hybrid cars are getting popular but it would be very costly and other important issue is how to lighten the hybrid car battery, which is very heavy in weight. But at present Pakistan is not the market for it.

Auto Industry Development Program (AIDP) is necessary. Its implementation is required and time-to-time amendments are required in AIDP.

Complete localization can only be done once the volumes increase.

We have sufficient women workforce and they are performing in all divisions like Production, Supply, HR, Finance, Marketing etc.

To benefit Pak Suzuki employees and our vendors we started in house auto financing for them but not for the general consumers. We thought about it when our sales were down but the most difficult thing is how to do the recovery i.e. is why we are hesitant to do auto financing.

Nagao added that government should support vendors and also it should allow import of parts from India it would be cheaper than the parts imported from Japan.

There is a lot of potential in Pakistan as compare to other countries and the situation can improve if provided with stable government, improve law and order situation and stability of Pak rupee along with stable economy.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: abcd on November 29, 2009, 11:23:32 AM
Pak Suzuki urges complete ban on used car import


KARACHI: Pak Suzuki is about to launch a new hatchback model car next year, disclosed Hirofumi Nagao, CEO & MD of Pak Suzuki, in an exclusive interview with The News.

He said that initially the new model will be available in petrol but later as per demand it will also be available in CNG. It will be a manual car and if the demand for automatic transmission increases we can think about automatic transmission.

Pak Suzuki’s annual production capacity on two-shift basis is 150,000 units. “We have already increased the production capacity from 50,000 units in 2003 to 150,000 in 2007 ie 300 per cent. This production capacity is sufficient to cater to Suzuki demand in Pakistan market,” he added.

The ban on five-year-old used cars will help local manufacturers to boost sales and when volumes grow the production cost will go down, thus benefiting the end user. From five years the ban is now applicable to three-year old used cars but the used car import should be completely banned or the import duty should be very high so that used car import should stop.

Sharing his experience Nagao said: “When I was in India in the 1990’s there was very high duty on imports so this helped boost the local industry. The same should be done here in Pakistan to help the local auto manufacturer.”

The import of used cars does not bring in any investment nor it creates employment on the other hand local auto manufacturers have invested heavily in the country and thousands of employees are working in plants, Hirofumi Nagao said.

The global economic recession has also affected the auto sector in Pakistan. The other major factors contributing to slowdown in auto sector are high mark-up rates which have reduced auto financing from 70 per cent to 20 per cent, weak Pak rupee that has increased the cost of imported components, increase in utility charges has caused rise in production cost and the absence of long term auto policy, different kinds of taxes and security issues.

All the said factors contributed in reduction of sales, Nagao said, “we had to reduce our production as per market demand. Here I would like to mention one more thing that to benefit the customer we never passed on the major economic recession to them, we suffered a lot and still we are suffering from this recession we have reduced our prices so much, means we are facing global recession but we are continuously benefiting the customer.”

The recent increase in price is very minimal and it will not affect the customers much as the Pak Suzuki is still bearing most of the cost and it will not affect the sales. “We see improvement in sales in the near future,” Nagao said.

He added that total investment so far made is Rs10.3 billion. We do have our expansion plan intact. We have already acquired 125 acres for building another plant.

But it all depends upon future demand, future Government policies and future country and global conditions.

He said that Pak Suzuki is pioneer in automobile business in Pakistan. We have completed 25 years in developing motorization in Pakistan. We hold more than 50 per cent market share. These successes could not be achieved without support of Suzuki Motor Corporation Japan. One of the major areas benefited through this collaboration is technology transfer. We have successfully launched many new models and have highest percentage of localization in our products. Without technology transfer this could not have been possible.

About the law and order situation he said, “we Japanese believed that Punjab side like Lahore, Rawalpindi and adjacent areas are more peaceful and safer areas as compare to Sindh specially Karachi but since I have joined last year the perception has changed I feel that Karachi is much safer than Lahore or Rawalpindi as far as law and order situation is concerned.”

Through out the world when auto industry was suffering government came forward to support and assist but here though government is there to assist but auto industry need more cooperation to over come this situation.

Hybrid cars are getting popular but it would be very costly and other important issue is how to lighten the hybrid car battery, which is very heavy in weight. But at present Pakistan is not the market for it.

Auto Industry Development Program (AIDP) is necessary. Its implementation is required and time-to-time amendments are required in AIDP.

Complete localization can only be done once the volumes increase.

We have sufficient women workforce and they are performing in all divisions like Production, Supply, HR, Finance, Marketing etc.

To benefit Pak Suzuki employees and our vendors we started in house auto financing for them but not for the general consumers. We thought about it when our sales were down but the most difficult thing is how to do the recovery i.e. is why we are hesitant to do auto financing.

Nagao added that government should support vendors and also it should allow import of parts from India it would be cheaper than the parts imported from Japan.

There is a lot of potential in Pakistan as compare to other countries and the situation can improve if provided with stable government, improve law and order situation and stability of Pak rupee along with stable economy.
hazaroon khuhishain aisie kay har khuhish per dam nikly
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: tosto220 on December 05, 2009, 12:59:42 PM
Farzooq Bhai

Kia is main potential hai 160 tak janay ka
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on December 05, 2009, 01:02:56 PM
Farzooq Bhai

Kia is main potential hai 160 tak janay ka

report by js

2009 EPS revised to Rs5.6 / 4Q earnings intact

With below than expected 9M2009 result, we are revising
down full year 2009 earnings by 41% to Rs5.6/share from
Rs9.4/share earlier. However, we keep our fourth quarter
earnings estimate intact and expect earnings to grow 4x over
the previous quarter to Rs3/share at the back of easing cost
pressures and rise in car prices.

Recommendation: ‘Sell’

Persistent yen appreciation and rise in steel prices remain a
cause for concern for the industry. On the other hand,
monetary easing will be the key in stimulating car sales. With
PSMC trading at 2009E of 16.2x, we maintain our ‘Sell’
recommendation on the scrip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: abcd on December 06, 2009, 11:47:24 AM
Farzooq Bhai

Kia is main potential hai 160 tak janay ka

report by js

2009 EPS revised to Rs5.6 / 4Q earnings intact

With below than expected 9M2009 result, we are revising
down full year 2009 earnings by 41% to Rs5.6/share from
Rs9.4/share earlier. However, we keep our fourth quarter
earnings estimate intact and expect earnings to grow 4x over
the previous quarter to Rs3/share at the back of easing cost
pressures and rise in car prices.

Recommendation: ‘Sell’

Persistent yen appreciation and rise in steel prices remain a
cause for concern for the industry. On the other hand,
monetary easing will be the key in stimulating car sales. With
PSMC trading at 2009E of 16.2x, we maintain our ‘Sell’
recommendation on the scrip.

stay away
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on December 09, 2009, 09:06:46 PM
VW to buy stake in Suzuki for around 1.72 billion euros

FRANKFURT: German car giant Volkswagen and Suzuki of Japan revealed an alliance on Wednesday to give VW a solid footprint in the Indian automarket for about 1.72 billion euros (2.53 billion dollars).

One analyst said the cash-and-share deal could also accelerate restructuring of the global automobile industry.

VW is to buy a 19.9-per cent stake in Suzuki by January 2010, and Suzuki would also acquire a stake in Europe’s biggest carmaker, a joint statement said.

According to Suzuki, the 19.9-per cent stake is worth about 222.5 billion yen (1.72 billion euros, 2.53 billion dollars), and the statement said Suzuki ‘intends to invest up to one half of the amount received from Volkswagen into shares of Volkswagen.’

The two groups said they had ‘reached a common understanding to establish a close long-term strategic partnership.’

Auto analyst Tatsuya Mizuno at Mizuno Credit Advisory said ‘the alliance may accelerate a reshuffle of grouping of the industry. The global auto industry is now facing a turning point.

‘For VW, Suzuki is attractive as Suzuki is strong in small car businesses in developing countries, in particular India,’ Mizuno added.

Volkswagen already has a strong presence in China so the alliance would create a vast network across Asia, a region expected to soon lead the world in economic growth.

‘In terms of product portfolio, global distribution and manufacturing capacities, Volkswagen and Suzuki ideally complement each other,’ the statement said.

The agreement is another step in VW’s plan to overtake Toyota as the world’s biggest automaker by 2018.

VW has just bought 49.9 per cent of the German luxury sports car maker Porsche and will acquire all of that company by 2011, making Porsche its 10th brand.

The head of VW’s supervisory board, Ferdinand Piech, has said he sees VW eventually owning 12 brands, and the group is also interested in the German heavy-vehicle maker MAN which could compliment its Swedish truck unit Scania.

VW already owns around 30 per cent of the shares in MAN and could aim to create a strong commercial vehicle division with the two companies.

Commenting on the alliance with Suzuki however, the statement said ‘both companies will establish a cooperative relationship while respecting each other’s independence as a stand-alone entity.’The companies plan a joint approach to the growing worldwide demand for more environmentally friendly vehicles,’ it added.

Mizuno said that ‘after ending its alliance with GM, Suzuki needed to find a strong partner in order to survive tough competition in the global market.’

The global auto industry was weathering the crisis and is now entering into a new stage’ where strong offers of small, environmentally friendly cars will be important, Mizuno said.

According to the joint statement: ‘The management of Volkswagen and Suzuki have concluded that the complementary strengths of each company make for a perfect fit in exploiting their respective advantages as well as rising to the challenge of the global market.’

Investors cheered the news, and VW shares showed a gain of 2.14 per cent to 80.58 euros in morning trading on the Frankfurt stock exchange, while the DAX index of German blue-chips was 0.40 per cent lower overall.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on December 11, 2009, 11:37:27 AM
Autos: Seasonal Decline


Auto sales witnessed a 19% MoM decline in Nov09 to 9,867 units from 12,224 units in Oct09 while 5MFY09 sales stand at 52,610 units, 8% higher than same period last year

PSMC, INDU and HCAR posted MoM decline in sales of 17%, 20% and 31% respectively

Our DCF based fair value for PSMC is PKR149/share calling for a BUY recommendation on the scrip. Similarly, INDU’s fair value is PKR288/share and is expected to post robust earnings for FY10 at PKR38.5 with a strong YoY rebound of 23% in unit sales
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on December 11, 2009, 11:41:30 AM
Autos: Seasonal Decline


Auto sales witnessed a 19% MoM decline in Nov09 to 9,867 units from 12,224 units in Oct09 while 5MFY09 sales stand at 52,610 units, 8% higher than same period last year

PSMC, INDU and HCAR posted MoM decline in sales of 17%, 20% and 31% respectively

Our DCF based fair value for PSMC is PKR149/share calling for a BUY recommendation on the scrip. Similarly, INDU’s fair value is PKR288/share and is expected to post robust earnings for FY10 at PKR38.5 with a strong YoY rebound of 23% in unit sales
 


Outlook

PKR continues to depreciate against USD and JPY while steel prices are also on their
move upwards. These factors in addition to inflation are likely to continue to put upward
pressure on manufacturing costs of the local assemblers and hence, adversely affect
margins. However, price increases by auto assemblers in Oct09 was a step towards
maintaining their existing margins if not increase them.

Furthermore, Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, is interested in buying a stake
in Suzuki Motor Corp. to gain access to the Japanese manufacturer’s small-car
technologies. This move may enhance PSMC’s product portfolio in addition to improving
the company’s operational efficiency further. PSMC also plans to launch “Swift” in the
1300cc segment in Jan10. Our DCF based fair value for the company stands at
PKR149/share calling for a BUY recommendation on the scrip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on December 16, 2009, 02:02:26 PM
Our current stance on the sector is underweight. Pak Suzuki Motor Company
(PSMC) is offering an upside potential of 5% whereas INDU is trading at a
discount of 6% to its target price.

AHL Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on December 26, 2009, 05:16:25 AM
Launch of new model: Suzuki to launch 1300cc car in January 2010

KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is launching Suzuki Swift, a 1300cc hatchback car in mid-January 2010.

“The launch will directly compete with major players in this category i.e. Honda City (Honda Atlas) and Toyota Corolla (Indus Motors)”, an auto expert said in his comments. The company believes that the new model will cater the local market needs with powerful engine capacity in the hatchback category.

The PSMC is ambitious on its future prospects as it is targeting to achieve 1 percent market share in overall car sales next year.

Besides this, the company also shared the expected sales numbers for the month of December 2009.

The analyst Furqan Punjani of Topline Securities said the model was a great success in India due to its cheaper price and better fuel efficiency and consumers in Pakistan largely prefer hatchback vehicles.

During last 3 years, average 52 percent of the total cars were sold in the hatchback category, which includes 800cc and 1000cc cars.

The PSMC is targeting the market between the 1000cc (with hatchback) and 1300cc (Sedan look) category, however, the competition will be stiff as this segment is already crammed by two major competitors, Toyota Corolla (with 69 percent of market) and Honda City (17 percent share) in the Sedan category.

He said with Liana loosing market share in the 1300cc segment, the new model would support overall market share of the company. However, much depends on the pricing of the new model.

Pricing will be the key: If the prices in the 1300cc segment are analysed, showroom price of Toyota Corolla (Xli) is Rs 1.26 million followed by City Rs 1.23 million and Liana Rs 1.1 million.

Moreover, if compared with one notch lower category segment (i.e. 1000cc), average price of Alto and Cultus is Rs 598,000 and Rs 765,000, respectively. Experts believe the price of Swift could be approx. Rs 900,000 to Rs 1 million.

December sales expected to be around 5000 units: The company believes that it could sale around 5000 units in the ongoing month which will translate into a decline of 7.5 percent MoM due to year end affect and a robust growth of 122 percent YoY primarily led by low base affect.

Thus, cumulative sales during 1HFY10 would be around 31,379 units, down 4.15 percent YoY. However, company expects significant turn around in the sales growth in 2HFY10 due to low base affect. Last fiscal (Jan-June 2009), Pak Suzuki sold on an average 2,426 cars per month which is significantly lower than existing monthly car sales.

The PSMC expects annual sales of the company to grow by 33 percent to 67,000 in FY10 as compared to 50,000 cars sold last year.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on December 31, 2009, 06:39:13 AM
Suzuki raises car prices by upto Rs 25,000

By Moonis Ahmed

KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) has raised its car prices (excluding Liana) by Rs 10,000 to Rs 25,000 in response to the rising cost pressures amid appreciation of foreign currencies against the rupee. The prices will be effective from January 1, 2010.

“Frequent fluctuation in the foreign currency, price increase in petrochemicals and increase in utility charges are the main issues behind this increase,” Pak Suzuki spokesman Shafiq Ahmed Shaikh told Daily Times on Wednesday.

The dollar and yen have appreciated by 3.4 percent and 8.3 percent respectively, since July 01, 2009, he said adding that the prices of petrochemicals, including thinner paint and other chemicals have increased. “Besides this continuous increase in utility charges have compelled the company to increase prices,” he said.

The prices of Mehran models have been increased by Rs 9,000 to Rs 16,000, as prices of VX have been raised by Rs 15,000 to reach Rs 419,000 as compared to Rs 404,000, the prices of VXR have gone up to Rs 470,000 as compared to Rs 454,000 showing an increase of Rs 16,000. Similarly, the price of VX CNG after an increase of Rs 9,000 is Rs 464,000 as compared to Rs 455,000. Similarly, VXR CNG price after an increase of Rs 10,000 has gone up to Rs 514,000.

All Cultus models prices have been increased by Rs 25,000 as the prices of Cultus VXR, VXR CNG, VXL and VXL CNG now stand at Rs 790,000, Rs 830,000, Rs 850,000 and at Rs 897,000, respectively.

Rates of both Alto VXR and VXR CNG have been increased by Rs 15,000 to reach at Rs 613,000 and Rs 662,000, respectively, as compared to Rs 598,000 and at Rs 647,000 previously. Similarly, Bolan and Ravi have also witnessed price increases between Rs 2,000 to Rs 18,000 on their different models.

This increase in prices is at a time when series of terrorist attacks have rocked the country in the current month followed by the tragic suicide bomb attack on the Ashura procession killing over 40 people in the city on Monday. These tragic incidents may have sent shock waves among prospective buyers who may be thinking of suspending their plans for a new car at the eve of new year. The company production is completely up to requirement, however, there is very thin demand in 800cc cars, Shafiq said adding that the demand of 1000cc cars has shot up due to eve of new year. It is pertinent to mention that besides other auto companies including Indus Motors and Honda, the Pak Suzuki had also raised the prices in October 2009. Dealers said that the car markets were also witnessing thin presence of buyers. “Only individuals are in the market and most of them are purchasing on cash rather than opting for car financing through banks.”
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on December 31, 2009, 10:48:25 AM
PSMC: Upgrade to Neutral following price hike

We revise our PO for PSMC from PRs65/sh to PRs90/sh and upgrade our rating from Underperform to Neutral.

Based on 1) 1.7-3.3% price hike by PSMC, 2) downward revision in CY10E unit sales outlook to 35% YoY growth and 3) FX assumptions, we adjust our EPS estimate; revising down earnings for CY09E 36% but raising CY10E by 28%.

Our discussion with PSMC reveals that the interim CKD pricing arrangement to invoice purchases in US$ terms have been revised to previous Yen based pricing.

Performance of PSMC's upcoming Swift car could be a key stock price driver, while further delay in CKD import duty reduction and FX volatility remain key risks.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Karuli on December 31, 2009, 11:14:05 AM
PSMC: Upgrade to Neutral following price hike

We revise our PO for PSMC from PRs65/sh to PRs90/sh and upgrade our rating from Underperform to Neutral.

Based on 1) 1.7-3.3% price hike by PSMC, 2) downward revision in CY10E unit sales outlook to 35% YoY growth and 3) FX assumptions, we adjust our EPS estimate; revising down earnings for CY09E 36% but raising CY10E by 28%.

Our discussion with PSMC reveals that the interim CKD pricing arrangement to invoice purchases in US$ terms have been revised to previous Yen based pricing.

Performance of PSMC's upcoming Swift car could be a key stock price driver, while further delay in CKD import duty reduction and FX volatility remain key risks.

I think it is buying time
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on January 06, 2010, 10:56:31 AM
PSMC: SWIFT-ly filling the gap
???? PSMC intends to begin the New Year with the launch of Suzuki Swift in
Pakistan. It is going to be a hatch-back model in the compact-car category
with an engine capacity of 1300cc or above
???? Although in engine category Swift is expected to be in direct competition with
Corolla and City, however the hatch-back model is expected to cater to the
niche market previously filled out by the imported Toyota Vitz.
???? PSMC has also announced an increase in its car prices by 0.4% to 3.7% with
effect from Jan 1, 2010. The increase in prices bodes well for the company in
terms of higher revenues and better margins but may not be taken positively
by the consumers who have already delayed their purchase plans due to
poor law and order situation in the country.
???? We forecast PSMC’s EPS to stand at PKR18.6 for CY10E with a DCF-based
fair value of PKR149/share, signaling an upside of 68% from the current price
levels. BUY!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on January 07, 2010, 11:16:21 AM
psmc on the move today
buy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on January 07, 2010, 11:58:09 AM
psmc on the move today
buy

upper locked
laoo bma ka satta
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Admin on January 10, 2010, 12:55:28 PM
Pak Suzuki increases rates of cars by Rs 50,000 to Rs 0.1m

By Moonis Ahmed

KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited has raised the prices of its different brands including Liana, APV and Jimny Jeep by Rs 50,000 to Rs 100,000.

Despite the fact that all allied industries to the auto industry including steel have been showing downward trend in prices, the company has raised the prices twice in just 12 days. Suzuki had raised the prices of different brands by Rs 10,000 to Rs 25,000 in the wake of rising cost pressures amid appreciation of foreign currencies against the rupee.

According to All Pakistan Motors Dealers Association (APMDA) Chairman H M Shehzad, the company has raised the prices of Liana by Rs 100,000 to reach Rs 1,230,000 as compared to Rs 1,130,000 previously.

While talking to Daily Times he said that the company has jacked up prices of APV GLX by Rs 100,000 to stands at Rs 1,825,000 as compared to Rs 1,725,000 previously, however, the prices of Jimny Jeep after an increase of Rs 50,000 stand at Rs 1,800,000 as against Rs 1,750,000 previously.

Shehzad said that when the auto industry has just started to come out of hot waters the local manufacturers have started profiteering after little improvement in auto sales. He said that the current rise in prices by the local assemblers is not an encouraging development.

He strongly criticised the rise in the prices of different brands of the company and said that this has been the second increase in just 12 days by the company.

“At a time when auto companies are offering different attractive relief packages around the world, like America ‘buy 1 get 1 free’, the local assemblers have doubled their prices,” APMDA chairman said. “Prices of automobiles have slumped all over the world including the US, Japan, South Africa and England to attract buyers, but the situation in our country is different.”

Shahzad urged the government to reduce the taxes on imported vehicles so that automobile importers could give tough competition to local car assemblers and this will definitely favour the public.

“Importers are paying 360 percent overall duties. We want to reduce the duty on imported cars and this will only benefit the common people,” he said.

He said that curbs on import of used cars disallow the public to enjoy the right to buy a car of their choice at reasonable rates, he said adding that with the import of used cars the public had a choice to buy a car at a reasonable rate.

In absence of any compatible option, consumers have no choice but to buy whatever local assemblers are offering and that too at whatever rate they desire, he added.

Since this year’s budget with the imposition of various duties and tightening of used car import policy, the import has declined and only 4,000 cars have been imported and the government revenue under import duty has declined to less than Rs 2 billion only.

It is pertinent to mention that several calls were made to Pak Suzuki Motors spokesman but no call was received.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on January 12, 2010, 11:49:59 AM
Auto sales during Dec-09 depicted 118% YoY improvement amid low-base affect,
although seasonality trimmed MoM performance by 15%.
???? CY09 can be termed as a year of two halves where price cuts in 2H09 - post FY10
budget - kick-started demand.
???? We expect CY10 auto sales to improve by 20-22% YoY. Pak Suzuki (PSMC) will
remain at the centre of the recovery with 41% YoY higher sales while for Indus we
expect relatively stable performance with 7% unit growth YoY.
???? FX volatility remains a key swing factor where we estimate 1% rupee movement
against Yen can affect PSMC’s earnings by 8% and Indus by 4% in either direction.
???? Indus remains our top pick with PO of PRs240/sh while we are Neutral on PSMC.

KASB Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: azam56 on January 13, 2010, 01:52:29 AM
(http://i46.tinypic.com/10qxxso.png)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: arauf on January 25, 2010, 10:55:04 PM
I am holding it for more than a year now. What is recommended? sell, hold or buy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on January 25, 2010, 11:31:28 PM
I am holding it for more than a year now. What is recommended? sell, hold or buy

Hold
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 03, 2010, 10:24:48 AM
a stock to keep an eye onn
swift is doing well
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on February 22, 2010, 12:59:49 PM
Buy PSMC looking very attractive.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 22, 2010, 01:22:20 PM
bm 1st march
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mkj04 on February 22, 2010, 01:27:51 PM
TOshi bhai welcome back
u were not posting mails since long
ur views on market plus AGIL, AHI,JSBL, BOC,THALL required
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Learner7 on February 22, 2010, 01:32:37 PM
Buy PSMC looking very attractive.

Welcome back bro. Where have you been since long?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on February 22, 2010, 01:41:41 PM
TOshi bhai welcome back
u were not posting mails since long
ur views on market plus AGIL, AHI,JSBL, BOC,THALL required

AGil = Buy on Dip.
Thall = Buy on Dip.
Boc = strong buy

Ahi= Buy and Hold
Jsbl = Buy and hold.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Toshi on February 22, 2010, 01:44:10 PM
Buy PSMC looking very attractive.

Welcome back bro. Where have you been since long?


Thank you Learner bhai ,I was busy in office.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Learner7 on February 22, 2010, 02:40:39 PM

Thank you Learner bhai ,I was busy in office.

(http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m282/pure100/com2/Welcome%20back/006.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 26, 2010, 12:11:02 PM
Autos: PSMC - CY09 Result Preview
   PSMC is expected to announce its CY09 results on Monday, March 1, 2010. We expect the company to report a PAT of PKR291mn (EPS: PKR3.54) against a PAT of PKR625mn (EPS: PKR7.59) for CY08

   PSMC’s 9MCY09 EPS stands at PKR2.58; for 4Q we expect the company to report PAT of PKR79mn (EPS PKR0.96), 13% lower as compared to PAT of PKR38mn (EPS: PKR0.46) for 3QCY08.

   We also expect the company to announce a PKR0.50 dividend for the year.
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 01, 2010, 03:03:27 PM
0.5 rs dps eps 3.1
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: shahid123456 on March 02, 2010, 12:13:39 PM
Buy PSMC looking very attractive.

Toshi bhai aap ki post padh ker buy kia tha ab bataien kia karoon
Buying 94 should i hold or selllll
if hold then when it will come back to the my buying level....
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 04, 2010, 11:34:23 AM
Auto: PSMC - Downshifting….

   We have updated our model for PSMC where our fair value for the scrip now stands at PKR106/share down 29% from PKR149/share earlier

   Our earnings estimates for the company have been revised downwards to PKR5.19, PKR8.32 and PKR 10.87 for CY10E, CY11E and CY12E on the back of 1) continued weakness in PKR against USD and JPY and 2) escalating steel prices

   PSMC is currently trading at CY10E and CY11E PER of 15x and 10x respectively while the stock is valued at half its book value at present. Our revised DCF based fair value for the company reflects a potential upside of 33% from current levels. BUY!
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 28, 2010, 12:27:55 PM
Pak Suzuki increases prices  
 
Sunday, March 28, 2010
By our correspondent

KARACHI: The Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) on Saturday again increased the prices of its various models by Rs10,000 to Rs15,000.

This is the second time within two months that the popular PSMC has increased its prices, which are applicable from March 29, 2010. Previously, the company had raised its prices by Rs10,000 to Rs15,000 on January 26.

According to auto analyst it is expected that in the near future prices will further rise. Shafiq Shaikh spokesperson PSMC said that under unavoidable circumstances the company has to pass on a minor production cost to the consumers owing to increase in prices of international steel sheets and increases in wages and utility prices.

He added that still the company is bearing most of the cost pressure despite the depreciating rupee and other inflationary conditions affecting the economy that have pushed up the CKD (complete knock down) and the local vendor parts costs.

The price tag on all Suzuki Mehran models have been raised by Rs10,000. Now Mehran VX, VXR, VX CNG, VXR CNG are tagged Rs4,29,000, Rs480,000, Rs474,000 and Rs524,000 respectively.

The 1000cc Alto prices have been increased by Rs12,000. Now Alto VXR will cost Rs6,25,000, Alto VXR CNG will cost Rs674,000. Similarly prices of all Alto models were also jacked up.

The 1000cc Suziki Cultus prices have been increase by Rs15,000. Cultus VXR latest price is Rs8,05,000, VXL Rs8,65,000, VXR CNG Rs845,000 and VXL CNG is now worth Rs912,000.

Middle income groups have condemned the price increase of the small cars and said that is depriving them to purchase a car. Mohammad Zaman an SSGC employee said, “I planning to buy an 800cc car on 5-years instalments but after calculating that a small car will cost me around Rs860,000 I dropped the idea to buy a car.”

Furqan Punjani an auto analyst at Topline Securities said that increase in the prices of 800cc to 1000cc segments are highly price effective the price increase will not have any abnormal impact on sales as the increase is very minimal. Internationally steel prices have increased manifold in last three months.
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 29, 2010, 12:07:06 PM
PSMC raises product prices by PRs10,000-15,000 (Analyst Comment)
Pak Suzuki has increased selling prices of its Mehran, Alto, Cultus and Bolan variants by
PRs10,000-15,000/unit w.e.f. 29th March 2010. This translates into ~2% hike in weighted-average
selling prices of the company. While part of the price hike will be used to absorb Yen appreciation
and rising commodity prices; we believe half of the price hike will go towards EBITDA margin
accretion for PSMC. We estimate that this should lift the company’s earnings by PRs2/sh in 2010E.
This is inline with our thesis that PSMC will look towards margin improvement in the second-leg of
recovery, after its unit sales have improved by 24% in 8MFY10. We have Neutral rating on PSMC
with PO of PRs90/sh.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 16, 2010, 04:28:47 PM
Someone's desperate to buy
check out level II
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 16, 2010, 08:17:06 PM
Based on the building support towards the end of the session, this might end near upper lock on monday. However, I feel PSMC is 'overvalued' at current price compared to its competitors, but then again they say

"Your opinion is less important than market's intention"

DD before buying.

goodluck.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 19, 2010, 11:09:30 AM
Based on the building support towards the end of the session, this might end near upper lock on monday. However, I feel PSMC is 'overvalued' at current price compared to its competitors, but then again they say

"Your opinion is less important than market's intention"

DD before buying.

goodluck.

Voila ! :banana:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 27, 2010, 08:29:34 PM
LPS of 0.21  (http://pakinvestorsguide.com/Emoticons_files/thumbsdown_anim.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on May 27, 2010, 09:48:58 PM
Price Target downgraded to 86/s by AKD Analysts.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on July 22, 2010, 12:12:48 PM
PSMC: Strong 2Q10E EPS but remain Neutral

We expect PSMC to declare earnings of PRs2.07/sh for 2Q10E, up 107% YoY owing to 126% YoY higher volumes, strong other income and favorable FX.

Although, adjusting for seasonality and base effect, we expect 2H10E volumes to grow by 16% YoY, lower other income in absence of advances and Rupee depreciation will remain a drag on further earnings improvement during 2H10E.

We believe lack of broad-based recovery due to continuing macro challenges and dearer financing, and lack of pricing power could restrict EBITDA margins from recovering to their highs of 9-10% going forward.

Although low base-effect could inflate EPS growth in 2010-11E, rich 2010E P/E and P/B multiples of 13.9x and 0.5x with single-digit ROE does not seem attractive enough to us. We reiterate Neutral with PO of PRs90/sh.

While stronger-than expected volumes improving bottom-line remain upside trigger, we highlight FX volatility as the key downside risk to our estimates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on August 04, 2010, 09:31:42 AM
"Pak Suzuki is likely to take a heavy toll as its sales are expected to decline by 52 percent to around 4,500 units as compared to 8,693 units in June 2010. This decline is likely to be visible in Mehran sales, he said."

Extraction (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\08\04\story_4-8-2010_pg5_3)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on August 23, 2010, 11:35:35 AM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/018066-1.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on August 25, 2010, 11:37:27 AM
PSMC: Strong 2Q results offer exit opportunity

PSMC announced above-expectations earnings of PRs3.63/sh for 2Q10 compared to PRs0.84/sh in the same period last year. Apart from vehicle sales doubling YoY, weak Yen lifted earnings by boosting gross margins 210bp to 4.7%.

Adjusting for 2Q results, we have raised 2010E EPS by PRs1.62 to PRs5.5 but retain mid-term earnings forecasts and our PO of PRs64/sh.

We believe PSMC reported best quarterly results of 2010E in 2Q and recommend taking this opportunity to exit the stock. Our bearish view is premised on (1) weaker 2010E volumes prospects due to floods and (2) QTD 7% Yen appreciation to >PRs1.

To retain its margins we believe PSMC will need to raise prices by another ~4% (1% hike is part of our base-case)- an uphill task given weak demand prospects.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on August 25, 2010, 12:30:03 PM
haha witty title
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Dhillon on October 25, 2010, 09:34:49 AM
EPS 4.71
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 25, 2010, 04:54:08 PM
PSMC posts EPS of Rs4.71 in 9M2010
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 9M2010
result today. The company’s revenue reflected an increase of
77%YoY as its unit sales rose 70%YoY. Moreover, gross
margins improved slightly to 3.1% from 2.9% last year on
account of improved economies of scale. Hence, the
company posted earnings of Rs388mn (EPS Rs4.71) during
9M2010 as against Rs212mn (EPS Rs1.32) in the
corresponding period last year, a growth of 257%YoY. At
current levels, we maintain our ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip.

jsgcl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Dhillon on October 26, 2010, 11:10:01 AM
Reiterate U/P; Turnover tax is a key earnings upside At PRs75.90/sh, PSMC is trading at dearer 2011E P/E of 9.9x offering 2.4% D/Y. Moreover, the company’s wafer?thin margins and weak pricing power amid slowing demand make it an unattractive play. We reiterate U/P with PO of PRs64h/sh. PSMC’s weak margins have forced it to provide 1% turnover tax (46% effective rate) in 9MCY10. Any development on FBR reverting to its previous 0.5% turnover tax rate (or 35% of pre?tax) could provide upside of PRs0.98 to 2010E EPS.
KASB
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on October 27, 2010, 10:33:24 PM
I maintain a 'DO NOT BUY' stance on PSMC. One of the most unattractive stocks.
For 6 months from Oct 09 to Mar 09 BMA kept on barking it as strong buy with fair value of 149 and 60% upside potential from 85 range.   
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Khawar on October 27, 2010, 11:20:53 PM
@m.k.k. yes true... Infact not only BMA, but AKD got even steps ahead and kept on saying it a strong buy with fair value some 170+ and then after some time they very easily brought fair value down to 82. How easy for them and this is our research houses output...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on October 28, 2010, 08:28:01 PM
Pak Suzuki to produce 12pc more vehicles
Dawn: Pak Suzuki has planned to increase production by 12 per cent in calendar 2011. The management of the PSMCL informed the vendors that the floods had not made any big impact on their sales so far and still the company had sizable number of advance orders. 
Senior General Manager Marketing PSMCL said that the company received good orders from the non-flood areas which nullified the slight negative impact of sales in flood affected areas.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on November 25, 2010, 11:35:14 AM
PSMC - The usual suspect hitting where it hurts

We revise down 2010E-11E EPS forecasts for PSMC by 11%/5% to PRs4.9/7.3. Although we raise volumetric forecast, lower than expected price hike (2-5% after adjusting for taxes) triggers earnings downgrade.

We raise 2010E volumetric sales forecast from 72,000 to 76,800 units (up 29% YoY) as we expect PSMC to benefit from strong LCVs demand and windfall to cotton farmers. In Jul-Oct 2010, LCVs have been PSMC's volume driver with 27% YoY growth while cars have predictably slowed down to 5% YoY.

In 4Q10E, we expect operating margins to drop below break-even due to cost-side pressures though other income and reversal in tax provisions will keep bottom-line in the black.

We believe (1) dearer 2011E P/E of 9.9x and D/Y of 2.6% and (2) company's wafer-thin margins amid weak pricing power make PSMC an unattractive play. We reiterate U/P with PO of PRs64/sh.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on December 14, 2010, 09:29:44 PM
New Year effect in play: November 2010 saw industry volumetric sales decline by 15% MoM,
a trend attributable to New Year effect and anticipation of reduced car prices in 2011 (RGST
to go down to 15%). YoY sales bucked this trend, jumping 18%, thanks to a recovery in 800
and 1000cc segment sales. This took total 5MFY11 sales to 58,802units.
Despite slower MoM sales, PSMC remains market leader: PSMC’s market share jumped to
54%, owing to its domination of 800 and 1000cc segments and the ongoing YoY recovery in
volumetric sales in the said categories. This was also a result of attrition in INDU’s market
share (down from 39% to 36%), due to weaker Corolla sales.
Imports of 5?year old cars allowed could mean greater competition for local producers:
Approval of proposal allowing import of 5?year old cars could ramp up competition for local
auto producers, and induce a substitution effect, but it’s difficult to determine the extent, as
PKR/Yen parity has touched new lows.
Year end effect to keep Dec 2010 sales muted: While sector outlook remains clouded,
volumetric sales have still demonstrated strength. We expect to see a slowdown in Dec 2010
due to New Year effect. But PSMC which has already sold 72,410 units CYTD should easily
equal, and quite likely surpass our sales forecast of 75,473units. We maintain our ‘HOLD’
stance on the scrip, with June 2011 PT of PKR77/share (CY10E EPS at PKR5.91).

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 01, 2011, 11:51:17 AM
Suzuki hikes prices by up to PKR11,000?20,000
Pak Suzuki Motor Company has increased prices of its various models by PKR11,000 to PKR20,000 per unit with immediate effect from
February 1. Price of Mehran has been increased by PKR11,000, whereas that of Alto and Ravi has been increased by PKR15,000. Cultus has
witnessed price hike of PKR15,000, Bolan by PKR12,000, Liana and Swift by PKR20,000. The company’s spokesman said that car prices
have been increased in the wake of yen appreciation against various currencies, making imports of parts and accessories expensive.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 01, 2011, 12:20:27 PM
Strong downtrend will likely negate the Bullish divergence on RSI
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nabeel on February 01, 2011, 12:40:29 PM
Express Interactive
KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited on Monday increased prices of its car models by Rs11,000 to Rs20,000, citing a rise in cost of production.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 01, 2011, 01:13:01 PM
Express Interactive
KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited on Monday increased prices of its car models by Rs11,000 to Rs20,000, citing a rise in cost of production.
already been posted here (http://pakinvestorsguide.com/index.php/topic,136.msg44468.html#msg44468)
but good to see you post ;)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on February 09, 2011, 09:38:47 PM
YEER:  2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
EPS     3.1     4.9    7.3     11.8
DPS     1.0     1.0    2.0     4.0
P/E     21.3   13.4   9.0      5.6
P/B     0.4      0.4   0.4      0.3
D/Y     1.5%  1.5% 3.0%    6.1%

KASB ESTIMATES

Note:- 2012 looks good. :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 09, 2011, 09:48:33 PM
yar issmey itna potential hey per pata nahin management mey hi keera hey ('INDU' dekho kaha hey post-crash ab) .. kisi zamaney mey kia stock tha yeh ..
turnover tax 0.5% se kuch bottomline behtar hogi 4Q ki per ab naya masla aya hey CNG kit ka .. used car import sey kitna revenue down hota hey ye bhi dekhna hey ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on February 09, 2011, 09:50:01 PM
@ M&M
 :thanks:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 09, 2011, 09:50:42 PM
Suzuki halts sale of CNG-fitted cars

KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company has stopped bookings for CNG-fitted vehicles that account for more than two-third of its sales, according to the company.

The compressed natural gas (CNG) cylinder inventory has come to an end and supply has been stopped for an indefinite period, said the company’s spokesperson, Shafiq Ahmad Shaikh, on Tuesday.

The local automobile assembler was hit recently as the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) barred Suzuki’s sole CNG cylinder supplier Landirenzo following an incident in which a cylinder in a car  exploded.

The option of converting the car to CNG after purchase may keep buying interest alive for Suzuki vehicles but lack of company warranty could spook potential buyers, said KASB Securities analyst Muhammad Saqib Sajjad.

The supply should normalise in the coming two months but till then sales of the largest auto assembler will shift down a gear, said InvestCap analyst Abdul Azim.

Market experts have not ruled out the possibility of the government reversing the decision in the near future.

Analysts say that Suzuki has already started testing equipment from other cylinder suppliers for early resumption of supply, however, the company official denied this.

Used car imports to dent local car demand

In another recent dent for the sector, the Economic Coordination Committee of the cabinet relaxed the age limit for used car import to five years from the previous three years. Analysts claim that this decision is in retaliation to a constant increase in prices by local assemblers.

The recent decision can open floodgates to more used car imports that will adversely affect demand in the post-harvest peak season of March to June that generally accounts for 40 per cent of annual vehicle sales, said analyst Muhammad Saqib Sajjad.

Importers have reportedly booked 4,000 units that, if allowed to come into the market, would not only divert three per cent demand from local automakers but also heighten uncertainty over future industry prospects, said Sajjad.

However, this did not stop Suzuki from increasing prices again by Rs11,000 to Rs20,000 for its car models on February 1.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 9th, 2011.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 09, 2011, 09:59:32 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/d2ZQc.png)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on February 09, 2011, 10:02:05 PM
Negative news ko dekh kar to lagta hai 57-58 ko touch karega.  :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: shrawan on February 21, 2011, 01:00:58 AM
board meeting for full year result will be announce this week...what u guys suggest..I think its at pretty good level keeping the eps of RS 5.5-7 in mind.....I think company may announce some hefty bonus instead of cash payout...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 21, 2011, 12:18:58 PM
board meeting for full year result will be announce this week...what u guys suggest..I think its at pretty good level keeping the eps of RS 5.5-7 in mind.....I think company may announce some hefty bonus instead of cash payout...
my focus remains at the sales figure of current month plus I think low liquidity makes this stock a long-term play and currently it's in a primary-downtrend .. short-term mey it might stretch to 70 due to high volatility but we need a close above 67 to test 70 resistance. Sustained move above 72 to change the trend.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 23, 2011, 09:52:46 PM
BM 4th March
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on February 23, 2011, 11:52:49 PM
MM BRO, u r posting continuously in this thread, are you in love with PSMC or stuck in it? :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 24, 2011, 12:13:39 PM
MM BRO, u r posting continuously in this thread, are you in love with PSMC or stuck in it? :skeptic:
hehe .. no, I just like this sector .. I've a thing about cars I guess.  :arrowhead:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 24, 2011, 12:30:06 PM
Smelling a robust demand of cars this year from the rural areas on the prospects of good crops, a car maker, having over 50 per cent market share, unveiled a plan to increase its production by 11 per cent in 2011 as compared to 2010. Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) in its vendor conference on Feb 18, informed the vendors about rolling out 87,580 units in Jan-Dec, 2011 as against 78,840 units produced in 2010.

Full Story (http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/24/car-maker-plans-to-raise-output.html)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 03, 2011, 11:29:21 AM
Automobile & Parts: PSMC - CY10E PAT to Grow by 74% YoY
   PSMC is scheduled to announce its CY10 results on Friday, March 04, 2011. We forecast the company to post PAT of PKR444mn (EPS: PKR5.39), up 74% YoY

   For 4QCY10 PSMC is expected to post PAT of PKR56mn (EPS: PKR0.67), up 29% YoY; we also expect the company to announce a dividend of PKR1/share along with its result

   Initially in Nov10 MoF agreed to reduce turnover tax from 1% to 0.5% but an SRO released later confirmed that it was not applicable on the auto assembling companies. Therefore, we expect the same to stay in place at 1% and also be applicable on PSMC

   Though our DCF based Dec11 TP for the company stands at PKR90/share we look to revisit our model post the announcement of detailed CY10 financials. We however continue to have an Underweight stance on the sector as a whole
 
BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 03, 2011, 11:39:13 AM
Govt. clears PSMC CNG cylinders
Pak Suzuki’s (PSMC) CNG cylinder consignment has been
cleared and released by the government. As a result, PSMC
has started booking and deliveries for its CNG vehicles with
immediate effect. To recall, the government authorities had
earlier suspended the consignment from the company’s
supplier due to technical reasons. We currently have a ‘Hold’
stance on the scrip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on March 03, 2011, 11:43:32 AM
its EPS is pretty good. then whats the reason that this stock is not getting any momentum, plz if any senior member can explain,
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 03, 2011, 11:50:26 AM
.........
   Initially in Nov10 MoF agreed to reduce turnover tax from 1% to 0.5% but an SRO released later confirmed that it was not applicable on the auto assembling companies. Therefore, we expect the same to stay in place at 1% and also be applicable on PSMC

............

so much for my estimates .. (http://pakinvestorsguide.com/Emoticons_files/thumbsdown_anim.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on March 03, 2011, 11:54:25 AM
hhhmmmm :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 03, 2011, 01:34:22 PM
PSMC to post PAT of Rs574mn (EPS Rs6.06) in CY10
PSMC’s PAT is expected to improve by 95%YoY to Rs499mn (EPS Rs6.06) in CY10. This is mainly
due to the increase in unit sales by 52%YoY to 79k units coupled with increase net sales by
62% to Rs43bn following the increase in sales price by ~8%YoY. However, other income is
expected to remain the same to Rs621mn in CY10. We also expect Rs0.50/share dividend
along with the results. On a quarterly basis, the company showed a gloomy picture as
despite an increase in car sales volume by 17%QoQ to 21k units and net sales by 20%QoQ
to Rs11.5bn, net profit of the company is expected to remain stagnant at Rs111mn (EPS
Rs1.35) for 4QCY10. This is mainly due to the expected surge in cost of production by 20%QoQ.
The 6%QoQ increase in steel prices coupled with 4%QoQ appreciation in JPY against PKR
were the main culprit behind this increase in cost of production. However, other income is
expected to register a growth of 36% to Rs178mn owing to rise in cash balance. The company
is expected to post a cash payout of Rs0.50 with the results.

investcap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on March 04, 2011, 04:35:42 PM
EPS 2.57, D 5% .50 Rs
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 04, 2011, 07:51:47 PM
EPS 2.57, D 5% .50 Rs
(http://pakinvestorsguide.com/Emoticons_files/thumbsdown_anim.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 04, 2011, 08:05:36 PM
its EPS is pretty good. then whats the reason that this stock is not getting any momentum, plz if any senior member can explain,
understood?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 05, 2011, 12:49:21 PM
EPS 2.57, D 5% .50 Rs
that is LPS of 2.14 in 4th Quarter (what a shame)
(http://i.imgur.com/yyKkc.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/Q2wMy.png)
yen depreciation is crucial for car manufacturers
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 06, 2011, 10:37:17 PM
i dont understand why some stocks prices remain low despite the fact that they give excellent profits every year?can any one answer this ?
what is relation of this question with PSMC? :biggrin:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 08, 2011, 11:22:10 AM
PSMC – Lowering estimates on weak 1Q and taxes  

?  We  revise  down  PSMC’s  EPS  estimates  for  2011/12E  from  PRs7.8/9.4  to 
PRs4.5/7.8, PO from PRs64/sh to PRs60/sh, and reiterate U/P. 
?  PSMC showed weak 2010 EPS of PRs2.6, down 40% YoY as EBITDA margins took 
the battering from FX appreciation, shrinking to 0.8% in 4Q, and high taxes. 
?  We expect PSMC’s 1Q11E bottom?line to swing into red due to interplay of weak 
volumetric  sales  following  OGRA’s  temporary  ban  on  CNG  cylinders  supplier, 
continuing cost?side pressures and high taxation rate (1% turnover). 
?  Although  start  of  post?harvest  peak  demand  season  should  improve 
performance in 2Q11E, we see inflow of used CBUs and other abrupt regulatory 
changes as key risks going forward. 

KASB
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ayub on March 09, 2011, 10:25:28 AM
just a question trying to learn something its good to ask questions or am i dealing with some bops!

Dear Brother Javaid,

This forum's name is 'pakinvestorsguide.com', and is meant for mature investors.

Slangs like bops, which means a give-head are not allowed in this forum, because investor's of all age and social status are investors and contiributor to such forums.

I sincerely advise you to restrain posting for a few days to ascertain the taste of this forum.

Please rest assure that I have no negative feelings towards you and shall be more than happy to see you profiting both personally and economically.

Regards,
Ayub

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 11, 2011, 11:16:07 AM
Despite issues in booking for CNG models, monthly sales of Pak Suzuki improved by 2 percent to 6,954 units in February. However, the only reduction in sales was due to the CNG issue in Cultus, the sales of which plunged 55 percent to 412 units in contrary to other models. The reduction in Cultus sales was capitalised by Coure of Indus Motors, whose monthly sales improved by 27 percent to 690 units in February. Though sales are improving, shrinking gross margins amid higher cost pressures would remain a big concern for the local assemblers.

Extraction (http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=35482&Cat=3&dt=3/11/2011)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 11, 2011, 12:18:42 PM
Earnings estimates revised downwards
We have revised PSMC earnings estimates for CY111 and CY12 to PKR 4.54/share
and 5.99/share from PKR 7.68/share and PKR 8.80/share. Additionally, June 2011
target price has been revised downwards by 21% to PKR 67.3/share. The reasons
for downward revision are extreme cost side pressures, lower volumetric sales, and
decline in other income. Moreover, GoP decision to relax auto import policy from 3
years to 5 years would further drag down volumetric sales and keep the company’s
earnings under pressure.
Revised Estimates CY11E CY12F Target Price
EPS-new 4.54 5.99 67.3
EPS-old 7.68 8.8 85.0
% Chg -41% -32% -21%
Source: AHL estimates

Recommendation
At current price level of PKR 63/share, the stock of PSMC offers a limited upside
potential of 6.8%to our June 2011 target price of PKR 67.3/share. Further, the
company is trading at a rich PER and dividend yield of 13.9x and 3.2% based on our
CY11 earnings estimates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 14, 2011, 08:09:32 PM
PSMC earning sensitivity to Yen/PRs 
Yen/PRs  2011E  2012E 
?10%       11.3       16.8 
?5%         7.9       12.3 
Base         4.5         7.8 
+5%         1.1         3.5 
+10%       (2.3)       (1.1) 
Source: KASB research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 29, 2011, 08:13:13 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/O9iR3.png)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 30, 2011, 01:28:56 PM
@ M&M
Upper locked!  :shock:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 30, 2011, 01:32:09 PM
@ M&M
Upper locked!  :shock:
yeah .. support at 60 and bullish divergence on RSI worked well.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 31, 2011, 11:22:41 AM
@ M&M
Upper locked!  :shock:
yeah .. support at 60 and bullish divergence on RSI worked well.
this too .. support at 1.016 .. break of support:Holy Grail of investors.
(http://www.exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=PKR&base_iso_code=JPY&mode=G&filter=180)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 12, 2011, 08:14:44 PM
Impressive recovery .. the trend has changed and sustained move above 78 will target 90. 67~69 is the support area.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ayub on April 13, 2011, 10:23:54 AM
Reiterate cautious stance on autos

We reiterate our cautious stance on local automakers (INDU PO: PRs227/sh and PSMC PO:
PRs56/sh) where supply side constraints, FX volatility and growing noise factor on the regulatory
front ahead of upcoming FY12 Federal Budget will remain key swing factors in the near?term.

KASB
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 27, 2011, 11:10:37 AM
EPS 1.11 (http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/024735-1.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on April 28, 2011, 11:13:32 AM
Important Notice (http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/024804-1.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on June 13, 2011, 10:31:29 AM
PSMC - Taxi scheme comes as a blessing

The Punjab Govt has allocated PRs4.5bn in its FY12 budget to provide 20,000 yellow cabs. Although granular details on financing structure and financiers are not available yet, initial news flow suggest that Punjab Govt will provide these cars on interest-free basis with a down payment of 10%.

Govt will only allow locally assembled cars under the scheme and has shortlisted Suzuki Mehran and Bolan for this.

We see this as a much-needed trigger for PSMC which, combined with price hike in May-11, could improve 2011/12E EPS by 133%/81% to PRs9.1/13.5 and our PO to PRs85 (implied P/B of 0.5x). We see two-pronged benefit; (1) operating efficiencies and (2) stretched delivery periods for PSMC as it scrambles to meet recurring as well as one-off demand over the next two years (other income should contribute 40%/50% to 2011/12E earnings).

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on June 20, 2011, 11:52:24 AM
PSMC to be the main beneficiary
The main beneficiary of the yellow cab scheme would be PSMC. If this scheme is
implemented, we believe PSMC’s car volumes are likely to spike by 9% and 16%
in CY11E and CY12F to 71,704 and 85,855 units from our base case assumption
of 65,704 and 73,855 units. Consequently, EPS would improve by 75% and 116%
to PKR 7.1/share and PKR 12.93/share in CY11E and CY12F, respectively.
Additionally our price objective for Dec’11 would be revised upwards to PKR
82.40/share. However, due to lack of transparency on the financing issues and
the time period over which scheme would be spread we have not incorporated the
volumetric growth in our model.

Yellow Cab effect CY11E CY12F Target Price
EPS-Yellow Cab 7.1 12.93 82.4
EPS Base Case 4.54 5.99 67.3
Source: AHL estimates

Recommendation
Based on last closing price of PKR 68.6/share, the stock of PSMC is trading close
to our DCF based December 2011 target price of PKR 67.30/share. Thus, we
have a HOLD stance on the stock. Moreover, the scrip is trading at PER and
dividend yield of 15.1x and 2.9% based on our FY12 earnings estimates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on June 23, 2011, 08:29:15 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) has maneuvered the two main statuary bodies, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) and Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) of not submitting relevant statement in the court, making it possible for the company to get a favourable decision, an official of the authority familiar with the development told Our Sources on the condition of anonymity.

Extraction (http://paktribune.com/business/newsdetail.php?nid=8824)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on July 15, 2011, 01:49:09 PM
PSMC – Punjab cabinet approves taxi scheme

Punjab cabinet has approved the taxi scheme to provide 20,000 vehicles to youth of the province, a move set to get Pak Suzuki rolling. Below are key details of the plans;

n      Punjab government will provide 16,000 Suzuki Mehran and 4,000 Suzuki Bolan.

n      The government will conduct balloting and supply 2,500 units/month for a period of 8 months, September onwards.

n      Applicants will make 20% down payment while the rest will be funded on interest-free basis. The Bank of Punjab will arrange financing for the project.

n      People below 35 years of age and belonging to 5 selected cities of the province are eligible to apply for the scheme.

We see this as the key trigger for Pak Suzuki which has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 51% during the last 12M. We expects benefits of the scheme to be visible 4Q11E onwards where (1) margins should improve due to a combination of volumes, operating efficiencies and higher selling prices and (2) other income should improve due to higher delivery periods on both Mehran and Bolan (which already are PSMC’s largest and 3rd largest selling models as per FY11 numbers). We expect PSMC’s earnings to improve 2.5x YoY to PRs9.1/sh in 2011E. The stock is trading at 2011E P/E of 6.9x, P/B of 0.35x and offers 34% upside to our PO of PRs85/sh, time to accumulate.

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: guru1 on August 12, 2011, 02:40:37 PM
Sales increases too much
http://paknewspoint.blogspot.com
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on August 18, 2011, 11:39:46 AM
PSMC: 1HCY11 Result Preview

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY11 financial results today. We expect the company to report NPAT of PkR241.3mn (EPS: PkR2.93) in the review period against NPAT of PkR280.8mn (EPS: PkR3.41) in the corresponding period last year, translating into a decline of 14%YoY. The decline is expected to come from higher steel costs (up 14%YoY) coupled with PkR depreciation against JPY (down 13%YoY), despite higher volumes in the review period whereby the company sold 41,717 cars (up 8%YoY) and 10,557 motorcycles (up 16%YoY) in 1HCY11. Operating in a high cost environment, the company is expected to post a decline of 50bpsYoY in the gross margin to 2.73%. Consequently, the operating margin should also decline to 1.05% in 1HCY11 from 1.2% in 1HCY10. Sequentially, PSMC is expected to report NPAT of PkR127.6mn (EPS: PkR1.55) in 2QCY11 against NPAT of PkR113.7mn (EPS: PkR1.38) in the previous quarter as lower revenue leads to lower effective tax as compared to previous quarter. Going forward, although the Pakistan auto industry continues to face headwinds particularly if the GoP allows more concessions for import of reconditioned cars, PSMC may show improved volume uptick on the back of its agreement to provide the Mehran and Bolan variants for Government of Punjab's yellow cab scheme. At current price level, we have a Buy stance on PSMC, which offers an upside of 23% to our target price of PkR80/share.

akd
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on August 18, 2011, 11:47:29 AM
eps 3.39 previous also 3.39
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on August 19, 2011, 10:54:11 AM
PSMC: Prices do the trick in 2Q11
 PSMC showed strong 2Q11 earnings of PRs2.28/sh, up 105% QoQ and inline
with our estimates. While volumes dropped QoQ, higher selling prices improved
GP margins by 2ppt to 6.7% and helped in doubling bottom line.
 We expect PSMC’s 2H11 earnings to further improve by 67% HoH to PRs5.7/sh,
riding on further hike in selling prices and better volumes, though heightened FX
volatility remains key downside risk.
 While the trigger of improving margins have started to play out, materialization
of 20,000 unit sales through the Punjab Government’s taxi scheme should also
provide impetus to the company’s stock price going forward. 
 PSMC is currently trading at 2012E P/E of 4.8x and P/B of 0.3x, and offers 32%
upside to our PO of PRs85/- we reiterate BUY.

Saqib Sajjad
KASB
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on August 19, 2011, 11:15:58 AM
SUZUKI IN CRUISE CONTROL
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company’s (PSMC) profit remained stagnant during the first half of 2011 on the back of higher tax rate and decreasing other income.
The country’s largest automobile maker’s net profit fell less than a per cent to stand at Rs279 million during January to June 2011, according to a notice sent to the Karachi Stock Exchange on Thursday.
Improved pricing scenario rendered into better gross margins which improved 30 basis points to stand at 3.5 per cent compared with 3.2 per cent last year, said Topline Securities analyst Furqan Punjani.
However, improved gross profitability failed to move the net profit upwards as 13 per cent decline in company’s other income to Rs271 million and higher tax rate of 49 per cent compared with 46 per cent last year.
The company’s stock price rose Rs1.79 to close at Rs65.84 at the Karachi Stock Exchange as the result was better than market expectation.
The flat earning was also because both sales and cost of sales grew by six per cent in the period under review, said analysts.
Revenue increased by six per cent to Rs23.3 billion on the back of a slight increase in volumetric sales.
Other operating income fell by 17 per cent to Rs271 million due to lower advances from customers.
PSMC sold just three per cent more units this year as its volumetric sales stood at 41,621 units against 40,318 units in the same period last year.
Express Tribune
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ambitious.invstor on August 19, 2011, 11:29:14 AM
you have not given your personal view about the stock bro?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on August 19, 2011, 11:32:08 AM
I have STAY AWAY stance on PSMC
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Dhillon on October 01, 2011, 08:17:21 PM
Production of Suzuki cars fall 35pc


KARACHI, Sept 30: Production of Suzuki cars, light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and two-wheelers has plunged by 3035 per cent following load-shedding by the KESC.

Pak-Suzuki Motor Company Limited is now facing problems at a time when it is bound to meet the extra production of 2,500 units (Suzuki Mehran and Bolan) for onward supply to Punjab government for its taxi scheme.

http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=01_10_2011_009_010

Daily Dawn
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on October 02, 2011, 10:16:17 AM
Pak Suzuki increases price of all models

New prices excluding taxes are as follows
Model                      New Price          Increase        PkR/-         
Mehran VX              495,000             14,000
Mehran VXR            547,000             14,000
Mehran VX CNG      556,000             19,000
Mehran VXR CNG    605,000             19,000
Bolan VX                 574,000             14,000       
Bolan VXR               633,000             14,000
Bolan VX CNG         640,000             19,000
Bolan VXR CNG       701,000             19,000
Cargo Van              550,000             14,000
Ravi                        522,000             14,000
Ravi CNG                586,000             19,000
Cultus                    905,000             20,000
Cultus CNG            965,000             27,000
Alto                        707,000             17,000     
Alto CNG                771,000             22,000
Liana RXI            12,32,000             30,000
Liana RXI CNG    13,01,000             30,000
Swift DX              10,30,000             25,000
Swift DLX            11,30,000             25,000   

Tribune
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 25, 2011, 11:48:42 AM
PSMC: 9MCY11 Result Preview

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is scheduled to consider its 9MCY11 financial results tomorrow. We expect the company to report NPAT of PkR529mn in the review period against NPAT of PkR390mn in the same period last year, a growth of 36%YoY. The result translates into an EPS of PkR6.42 in 9MCY11 against EPS of PkR4.73 in 9MCY10. Growth is expected to stem mainly from higher volumes (up 17%YoY). As autos prices remained on the higher side in 9MCY11, gross margin is expected to increase by 78bpsYoY to stand at 3.91%. Consequently, operating margin should also increase to 1.73% in the review period, from 1.12% in 9MCY10. On a sequential basis, PSMC is expected to report earnings growth of 21%QoQ to post NPAT of  PkR227.4mn (EPS: PkR2.76) in 3QCY11.

akd
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 25, 2011, 12:41:11 PM
PSMC; Higher margins to propel earnings by 27% YoY
Pak Suzuki Motor Company is scheduled to announce its 9MCY11E financial
result on October 26th, 2011. The company is expected to post profit after tax
(PAT) of PKR 492mn (EPS: PKR 5.98) compared to PKR 388mn (EPS: PKR
4.71) reported in the same period last year, a rise 27% YoY. This is primarily
driven by higher gross profit margin coupled with higher volumetric sales to
67,979 units, an increase of 17% YoY. Higher income is likely to drop by 8% YoY
to PKR 406mn despite higher volumes due to drop in bank deposits driven by
blockade of funds in WHT deducted at custom stage.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on October 26, 2011, 10:45:25 AM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/028816-1.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on November 11, 2011, 11:52:39 AM

PSMC: Raising estimates post robust 3Q; reiterate Buy

We raise PSMC's 2011-12 earnings estimates by 44/14% to PRs12.9/15.2 and lift PO from PRs85/sh to PRs94/sh.

 PSMC's robust 3Q11 EPS of PRs4.8 was the highest quarterly earnings since 2008, where both volumes and margins lent support. We believe this clearly indicates a turnaround in the company's financial performance.

 We believe the worst is behind us in terms of the company's performance and expect secular 18% YoY growth in 2012E EPS, after 4x YoY rise in 2011E.

 Trading at 2012E P/E and P/B of 4.5x and 0.3x, PSMC's stock price is yet to reflect the turnaround in company's financial performance. With a 4% dividend yield, the stock offers 38% upside to our PO of PRs94/sh. Reiterate Buy.

 We flag 1) another spike in Yen and 2) any negative surprise in the AIDP as key downside risks to our call.

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on November 21, 2011, 11:39:04 AM
PSMC Earnings Review 3Q CY11: Undisputed economy segment leader
 

•PSMC recently reported 3Q CY11 results clocking in PAT of PKR 392.7mn (EPS: PKR 4.7) against PKR 108mn (EPS: PKR 1.3) in the same period last year, an increase of 2.6x. Volumetric growth was responsible primarily for this phenomenal increase with car sales rising by 17%.
 
•PSMC’s 3Q CY11 revenues increased by a phenomenal 60% at PKR 15.3bn from PKR 9.5bn. On a 9mo basis, topline rose by 22% YoY. We believe volumetric growth in 3Q CY11 was to a greater degree driven by the company selling its cars produced in 2Q CY11 so customers could avail the benefit of the Excise Tax and FED reduction.
 
•Autos demand has improved but PSMC has primarily benefited from the Punjab Taxi Scheme. The scheme is expected to generate incremental demand of 20,000 cars (Mehran and Bolan) for PSMC in FY12 (started in Sep11 and will end in Jun11). Moreover, PSMC has become the undisputed leader in the economy segment (<1,000cc) as INDU’s has started to shift its focus away from the small segment.
 
•PSMC witnessed gross margins of 4.2% in 3Q CY11 up 130bps from 3Q CY10. 9mo CY11 gross margins expanded to 3.8% from 3.1% in 3Q CY10. Gross margin expansion was led by higher volumetric growth.
 
•We expect CY12 to be a relatively better year for PSMC with a turnaround in earnings due to the reasons mentioned. At its last close of PKR 68 per share, PSMC trades at CY11 PE of 5.6x and a PB of 0.37x.
 
 
IGI Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on January 05, 2012, 12:03:29 PM
Alto to be discontinued in CY12
Following the earlier announcement by Indus Motor Company Limited of the
discontinuation of Daihatsu Coure, Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) recently
announced similar plans with respect to its 1000cc Alto model. Implementation of
Euro-II compliant emission standards from Jul-12 is to blame for this. Although
applicable on all vehicles assembled locally, PSMC has announced that it only plans to
cease production of Alto while its other non-Euro-II compliant models (Mehran, Bolan
and Ravi) will be upgraded to meet the new regulatory specifications. We believe the
reason behind Alto being singled out is the fact that at least three of PSMC’s models
(Mehran, Bolan and Ravi), together comprising more than 60% of total units sold in
CY10, use variants of the same engine thus making it economically feasible to import
an upgraded version of the engine used in these models as compared to investing in
one which makes up 15% of total sales volume.

Constituting 15% of sales, does Alto discontinuation spell disaster for PSMC?
Not necessarily! Even though this would impact EPS negatively by approximately PKR
1.05 (based on our earlier expected CY12 EPS of PKR 13.21) when viewed in
isolation, we believe that PSMC’s Mehran model would witness an increased demand
owing to this cessation. Our argument is based on the relative pricing of different
passenger cars in the 800-1000cc segment. With Coure no longer being an option for
customers, Cultus, priced at PKR 957,500 (average) as of Jan-12, is the next best
alternative. However, with this price being almost 25% higher than Alto’s Jan-12
average price, coupled with the effect of higher fuel costs owing to CNG curtailment
and halt of production of CNG variant models, we believe that Mehran sales would
also be augmented

Will Mehran save the day (again)?
Although impossible to calculate with a high degree of certainty at this stage, but even
if CY12 Alto sales (by volume) are reduced by 60%, and half of these lost sales are
captured by Mehran, this would entail a top-line net impact of ~ PKR 2.6bn. Our base
case hinges upon a PKR 1.8bn revenue increase brought about an additional 3000
Mehran units being sold at a CY12 estimated price of PKR 597,000. However, being a
high margin product with higher degree of localization, Mehran sales would entail lower
costs, especially when viewed in light of PKR depreciation against JPY and USD.

Recommendation
Based on the above development(s) and assumptions, we revise our Dec-12 EPS and
target price downwards to PKR 12.21 and PKR 75.40 respectively. At current price level
of PKR 60.50/share (PER of 4.95x), PSMC still offers an upside potential of 23% and we
maintain our Buy recommendation on the scrip.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on February 19, 2012, 12:23:13 AM
Farzooq bhai please is ke baray mein kuch btaye.yahan buy krna chahiye ya nae.Please seniors comment.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 19, 2012, 01:14:08 PM
Farzooq bhai please is ke baray mein kuch btaye.yahan buy krna chahiye ya nae.Please seniors comment.

broad bid/ask spread and low trading activity makes it difficult to enter/exit .. ditto with INDU
I prefer INDU anyway.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mra901 on February 19, 2012, 01:26:31 PM
Sir Gee U mean not for day trade
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on February 19, 2012, 01:37:52 PM
Sir Gee U mean not for day trade
not even for trading purpose .. pure investment
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 19, 2012, 02:09:59 PM
Sir Gee U mean not for day trade
not even for trading purpose .. pure investment

9m eps of around 8 and Good earnings expectations of around 10-11rs with annual result due 1st week of march but
payout would be the key. Buy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 19, 2012, 03:02:03 PM
Pak-Suzuki stops booking orders
 Aamir Shafaat Khan | Business | From the Newspaper
14th February, 2012

Pak Suzuki`s total vehicle production surged to 56,744 units in July-January 2011-2012 as compared to 47,153 units in the same period of last fiscal year. - File photo

KARACHI: A leading Japanese car assembler discontinued booking of Suzuki Mehran, Bolan and Alto (CNG variants) from Feb 11, 2012.

Pak-Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), whose 80 per cent production used to comprise CNG fitted vehicles, has asked its authorised dealers to provide details of any orders in the pipeline by Feb 15.

The company had suspended procurement of kits from importers and a leading manufacturer in the middle of January. The company is consuming available imported stocks or those were under import before government`s ban on import of CNG kits and cylinders.

An official of the company said that the decision was taken by the firm on Feb 11 after finishing available stocks. The company enjoys over 50 per cent market share in total vehicle sale in Pakistan. The PSMCL official said that consumers, who used to rely on factory fitted CNG vehicle, would now feel the pinch after the discontinuation in booking of economy segment cars, like CNG Mehran, Bolan and Alto.

“Sale of cars may initially come down by 10 to 20 per cent but in the coming months sales may dip by 30-40 per cent,” the official anticipated, adding that quality conscious people would face problems in getting kits and cylinders from conversion centres in the open market. Mehran, Alto and Bolan (excluding CNG kits and cylinders) will now cost Rs40,000-50,000 less but consumers will have make efforts to get quality kits and cylinders in open market as black-marketing of kits and cylinders has already started.

The price of 50kg gas cylinder with kit is now tagged at Rs37,000-38,500 as compared to Rs24,000-27,000 prevailing ahead of government`s ban. A conversion centre staffer said that his work is going on as the market is facing shortage of cylinders mainly after the ban.

Those who have kits and cylinders are charging higher rates.

Conversion centres claim that they are installing government-approved CNG kits and cylinders.

A kit importer said that the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and HDIP must implement their regulatory framework to improve CNG conversions through licenced and authorised centres to ensure pubic safety.

He demanded lifting of ban on car assemblers` CNG conversions in order to provide safe, economically attractive fuel option to middle income group. Pak-Suzuki Motors has also initiated a campaign for CNG cylinder testing service and various authorized dealers are charging Rs1,500-2,500 for this purpose from customers.

The dealers are taking gas cylinders from customers on a one week promise for verifying cylinders from Hydro Carbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) besides assuring that they would get a safety-approved certificate.

As per HDIP law, CNG cylinder needs to be tested after every five years for safety purposes. There is only one HDIP centre in Karachi to provide safety certificate to CNG cylinders.

Pak Suzuki`s total vehicle production surged to 56,744 units in July-January 2011-2012 as compared to 47,153 units in the same period of last fiscal year.

Meanwhile, makers of Toyota Corolla and Daihatsu Cuore vehicles have not yet discontinued booking of CNG-fitted vehicles.

An official spokesperson for Indus Motors Ltd (IMC), Ali Asghar Jamali, told Dawn that the company was taking orders of CNG vehicles (Toyota Corolla Xli, GLi and Daihatsu Cuore) due to some stocks of cylinders and kits in its hand. However, he felt that government`s decision would have a negative impact on sales volume of car assemblers.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 19, 2012, 03:11:37 PM
Market leader Pak Suzuki Motor Company witnessed 39% growth in sales during July 2011 to January 2012 with Mehran leading the way with 40% growth to 19,375 units.
 
Suzuki’s Mehran and Bolan witnessed healthy growth during the period under review due to Punjab’s yellow cab scheme. The provincial government aimed to deliver 7,500 cabs to successful applicants in 2011.
 
Suzuki Swift sales almost doubled to 3,847 units during against 1,972 units in the same period last year.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 02, 2012, 11:38:31 AM
We are reiterating our Buy stance on the stock of Pak Suzuki Motor Company
Limited (PSMC) with our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model based Dec-12 target
price of PKR 76.0/share offering an upside potential of 26% from last closing price
of PKR 60.2. We expect the company to post profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 930mn
(EPS: PKR 11.30/share) in CY11E and PKR 903mn (EPS: PKR 10.98/share) in
CY12F. The company is expected to pay cash dividends of PKR 1.50/share and
PKR 1.00/share in CY11 and CY12 respectively. This translates to an attractive
CY11 PER of 5.3x and CY12 PER of 5.5x.

Yellow cab scheme to augur well for PSMC’s earnings
The Government of Punjab announced its yellow cab scheme in the middle of
CY11, of which PSMC was the sole beneficiary. Following commencement of taxi
deliveries in Sep-11, PSMC’s (volumetric) sales of its Mehran and Bolan brands
(the two models identified by the government to be eligible under the said scheme)
rose by 38% YoY and 33% YoY respectively for the remainder of CY11. With total
number of taxis expected to be delivered by Jul-12 standing at 20,000 units, we
believe this would impact CY12 EPS positively by PKR 2.5.

Alto not to be missed
PSMC has announced that it will be discontinuing its Alto brand (1000cc) by the
middle of CY12. This announcement has been made in view of the implementation
of Euro-II compliant emission standards (to be effective from Jul-12). As per our
estimates, Alto contributes 15% to the company’s net revenue. Its discontinuation
would thus entail an earning loss of PKR ~ 1.05/share. Following this however,
PSMC will remain the only auto assembler operating in the economy segment
(following cessation of production of Daihatsu Coure by Indus Motor Company)
and its other models (Mehran and Cultus) are likely to the major beneficiaries of
the discontinuation.

Regulatory bottlenecks add to uncertainties
The current Auto Industry Development Programme (AIDP) is due to expire in
FY12. This is expected to be replaced with AIDP 2012. In view of the nonaccomplishment
of various goals set out in the current AIDP and the seeming lack
of political will, and supported by our discussions held with various industry
stakeholders, we believe that the new policy will have little to add in terms of value
and will likely result in an extension and/or rewording of the current policy.

4QCY11 earnings to jump by 163% QoQ
PSMC’s sales performance improved remarkably in 4QCY11 and its EPS is
expected to rise by 163% QoQ to PKR 5.73. The company’s top-line is expected to
grow by a healthy 13% QoQ to PKR 17.3bn. This growth is mainly attributable to
increased demand on account of the taxi scheme, which augmented Mehran and
Bolan sales by 38% YoY and 33% YoY respectively to 8,720 units and 4,759 units
during the period under review.

                     CY10A CY11E CY12F
Revenue (PKR bn) 42.6 55.8 56.7
Net Profit (PKR bn) 0 .5 0.9 0.9
EPS (PKR) 5.6 11.3 11.0
DPS (PKR) 0.50 1.50 1.00
Dividend yield 0.8% 2.5% 1.7%
PER 10.8 5.3 5.5
ROE 3.0% 6.0% 6.0%
ROA 2.0% 5.0% 4.0%
Source: Company Accounts & AHL estimates
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 06, 2012, 11:38:36 AM
Looking for a tough year beyond CY11 results, reiterate Underperform
Post 2011 results, we expect weak sales weighing on PSMC’s performance in 2012E and
reiterate U/P with PO of PRs60. In 2011E, we expect PSMC’s earnings to have improved by 4x
YoY to PRs12.5/sh (4Q11 EPS of PRs4.4 vs. LPS of PRs2.2 in 4Q10) on double?digit volume
growth and better prices lifting gross margins. However, earnings should drop 13% YoY in 2012E
as (1) weak agriculture income and (2) effect of ban on CNG vehicles weigh on sales. We believe
anticipation of weak showing in 2012E has caused PSMC stock to underperform KSE?100 index
by 25% during 3M. On the upside, we flag Yen sustaining at current levels, after recent sharp
devaluation against PKR, and materialization of automakers’ demand for relaxed terms to
import parts from India under the MFN status as key upside risks to our thesis.

2011 earnings to be the best since 2007
We expect PSMC to announce EPS of PRs12.5 for 2011E, 4x YoY and the best since 2007, and
payout of PRs2.0/sh. We expect sales to improve by 24% YoY, driven by 19%/13% YoY higher
car/motorcycle sales and 5?9% higher selling prices. Higher selling prices and operating
efficiencies should help in improving gross margins by 1ppt to 5.7% for the year. While other
income should improve to PRs689mn during the year on improved cash holdings and higher
markup rates, better core profit margins should shrink its contribution to the bottom line. For
4Q, we expect EPS of PRs4.4 vs. loss of PRs2.2 in 4Q10.

Ban on CNG and weak agri income to drag 2012E sales
Despite factoring?in the Punjab Govt taxi scheme in 2012, we expect PSMC’s car sales to grow
by sub?par 3% YoY; ?16% YoY excluding sales for the scheme. We believe (1) ban on vehicles
with factory fitted CNG and (2) weak agri income due to soft cotton prices and higher input
costs would remain key deterrents. PSMC has already stopped booking of CNG vehicles from
mid?February. Since the company has advance bookings for 2?6 weeks, the impact of lower
bookings should be fully visible from May 2012 onwards in our view.

Key upside risks: Stable JPY and favorable terms of trade with India
We flag (1) JPY stabilizing at current levels of PRs1.11, and (2) favorable terms of trade with
India under the MFN status as key upside risks to our thesis. JPY has sharply depreciated over
past few days and is currently hovering around PRs1.11. We believe Yen stabilizing at current
levels should help PSMC in improving margins where the impact should be visible from 2Q12E
onwards. It is pertinent to mention that PSMC has not raised its selling prices since Dec?11 and
do not plan to do so if Yen remains at current levels.

On MFN, automakers are seeking balance between (1) Govt allowing imports of parts from
India, (2) strict terms on CBU imports – both new and used and (3) import of jigs and other
equipment. While (1) and (3) should be favorable for PSMC, any relaxation on CBU imports
could act as deal breaker for local automakers. We have not incorporated any effect of changes
of import terms under MFN as we await further details on this.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec 10 11E 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 12.5 11.4 12.0
DPS (PRs) 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
P/E (x) 23.9 4.9 5.4 5.1
D/Y (%) 0.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
P/B (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Source: PSMC, KASB Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 06, 2012, 12:38:16 PM
can anybody tell me about PSMC board meeting?
and also considering such an increase in earning and dividend. wont this shares price increase?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 10, 2012, 11:25:59 AM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) has witnessed a 35% YoY growth to 70,162units in 8MFY12 as against the sales of 52,067 units in the same period last year. Highest growth was observed in the sales of Suzuki Swift of 86% YoY to 4,500 units as against 2,420 units in the same period last year. Suzuki Cultus under the domain of 1000cc segment witnessed a handsome 38% YoY jump in its sales to 9,573 units in the comparison of 6,919 units in the same period last year, followed by Suzuki Alto whose sales also experienced a massive 32% growth to 9,854 units versus 7,438 units in the same period last year. Above all, Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan both segments posted growth of 37% YoY and 47% YoY respectively
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 11, 2012, 08:02:21 PM
9M 2011 eps was 8.16
Went for a small rally from 63 to 75 but again fell back
BM date has not yet been announced.

But it can easily give short term gains with target of Rs. 80/-
Risk can be taken at 60 which I guess has limited downside from here.  :skeptic:

Lets keep fingers crossed.
But making it 2.5% of portfolio won't hurt!

@ Farzooq & M&M
What is your take on this?



Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 11, 2012, 08:23:26 PM
Book value is Rs. 180/-
Long term debt is almost zero
Cash & cash equivalents of around Rs. 7.1 billion as on Q3
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 11, 2012, 08:35:49 PM
9M 2011 eps was 8.16
Went for a small rally from 63 to 75 but again fell back
BM date has not yet been announced.

But it can easily give short term gains with target of Rs. 80/-
Risk can be taken at 60 which I guess has limited downside from here.  :skeptic:

Lets keep fingers crossed.
But making it 2.5% of portfolio won't hurt!

@ Farzooq & M&M
What is your take on this?


9m eps of around 8 and Good earnings expectations of around 10-11rs with annual result due 1st week of march but
payout would be the key. Buy

Analyst expectations are of eps of 12+ . A good safe buy at current rates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 11, 2012, 08:41:40 PM
KASB is giving TP of 60 with eps of 11.4 and 12 for CY 12 & 13 respectively

PSMC downride to 60 was justified due to eps of 2.5 in CY 10 but now when it can sustain eps of 10+ in coming years, I wonder why analysts are keeping price objective so low?

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Valueestimator on March 11, 2012, 08:43:34 PM
@Poker

Any idea about earnings outlook. any serious concerns on earnings sustainability.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 11, 2012, 08:48:02 PM
@Poker

Any idea about earnings outlook. any serious concerns on earnings sustainability.

Their margins squeeze when Pkr depreciated against Yen. Although they increase their prices as well but sometimes, margins take hit. 2010 was a difficult year for PSMC, however, at current rates, risk of loss is very less. AHL & KASB both a hinting at eps 10 plus for next 2 years.

80 is achievable in my opinion with limited downside risk.

I am buying may be tomorrow. {2.5% of total portfolio}
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 11, 2012, 08:52:17 PM
KASB is giving TP of 60 with eps of 11.4 and 12 for CY 12 & 13 respectively

PSMC downride to 60 was justified due to eps of 2.5 in CY 10 but now when it can sustain eps of 10+ in coming years, I wonder why analysts are keeping price objective so low?

Ban on CNG and weak agri income to drag 2012E sales
Despite factoring?in the Punjab Govt taxi scheme in 2012, we expect PSMC’s car sales to grow
by sub?par 3% YoY; ?16% YoY excluding sales for the scheme. We believe (1) ban on vehicles
with factory fitted CNG and (2) weak agri income due to soft cotton prices and higher input
costs would remain key deterrents. PSMC has already stopped booking of CNG vehicles from
mid?February. Since the company has advance bookings for 2?6 weeks, the impact of lower
bookings should be fully visible from May 2012 onwards in our view.

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 11, 2012, 09:24:47 PM
current govt. policy is the biggest bottleneck that's keeping the sentiments down .. first import of old cars and now this cng kits issue. Agri income and pkr depreciation agnst jpy among others.
I've always prefered INDU as an investement in auto sector while technically PSMC could stay rangebound b/w 60~75 and currently the right time to take risk, I agree.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 12, 2012, 11:26:56 AM
psmc bm 19th march at 9.30
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 12, 2012, 12:32:02 PM
psmc bm 19th march at 9.30

cap  :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 12, 2012, 12:35:05 PM
psmc bm 19th march at 9.30

cap  :shoaby:
was busy at office
couldn't buy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: kamal on March 12, 2012, 12:40:03 PM
psmc bm 19th march at 9.30

cap  :shoaby:
was busy at office
couldn't buy

Abhee karlo khula hua hai LOCK :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 12, 2012, 01:15:39 PM
psmc hold or sale.please advice all seniors.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 12, 2012, 07:13:08 PM
bought at upper lock at 63 instead of 60.
Eyeing anything exciting with annual result  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 12, 2012, 10:23:42 PM
bought a few a week back at 60.8. m holsing till bm... might even hold till spot as Eps is expectes to be high. might give it a big boost.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: kamal on March 12, 2012, 11:24:05 PM
bought at upper lock at 63 instead of 60.
Eyeing anything exciting with annual result  :fingerscrossed1:

I like indus than this ..my personal choice ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 13, 2012, 01:24:20 PM
upper locked  :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 13, 2012, 03:03:57 PM
upper locked  :shoaby:

aap ki khushi ko dekh ke lagta hai
aap bhi mere humsafar ho is kashti mein  :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 13, 2012, 03:42:45 PM
 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 13, 2012, 08:49:30 PM
profit taking kis level pe krni chahiye.please advice
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 13, 2012, 08:57:41 PM
profit taking kis level pe krni chahiye.please advice

holding till 19 march and then will decide what should be done after result is announced.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on March 13, 2012, 09:42:35 PM
profit taking kis level pe krni chahiye.please advice
around 70
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 13, 2012, 09:48:55 PM
profit taking kis level pe krni chahiye.please advice
around 70

Holding with Target of 70-75
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 14, 2012, 12:36:59 PM
The board of directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is
scheduled to meet on March 19, 2012 to announce the financial result for the year
ended December 31, 2011. We expect the company to earn profit after tax (PAT)
of PKR 930mn (EPS: PKR 11.30), which represents a substantial 104% jump over
CY10’s PAT of PKR 457mn (EPS: PKR 5.55). This improvement in bottom-line is
expected on account of (volumetric) sales growth, along with multiple price hikes
exercised by the company during the year which enabled it to maintain its margins
in the face of incessant erosion of the Pak Rupee. Furthermore, we expect PSMC
to announce a final cash dividend of PKR 1.5/share.

Financial Highlights (PKR mn)
CY11E CY10A YoY
Net sales 55,800 42,643 31%
Gross profit 1,824 1,004 82%
Selling & distribution expenses 248 197 26%
Administrative expenses 714 636 12%
Other expenses 128 56 129%
Operating profit 734 115 538%
Profit before taxation 1,431 668 114%
Profit after taxation 930 457 104%
EPS (PKR) 11.30 5.55
Source: Company accounts & AHL estimates

Strong margins and volumetric growth to expand gross profit by 82% YoY
Gross profit is expected to rise by 82% YoY to PKR 1.8bn during CY11. This will
mainly be achieved by virtue of a 9% YoY growth in sales volumes to 85,614 units,
which, when coupled with an average 9% price hike on all its models, is likely to
result in a top line expansion of 31% to PKR 55.8bn. Prices were increased by the
company in CY11 in order to offset the increased costs on account of PKR
depreciation against JPY and USD. Also, increased sales volumes have
augmented the impact of higher levels localization (of ~60%) of PSMC. As a result,
gross margin is expected to stand at 3.4% in CY11 as compared to 2.4% in CY10.
Diversified product mix and Yellow Cab Scheme to augment sales by 31%
We expect the company to achieve a 31% YoY revenue growth to PKR 55.8bn.

Being the sole beneficiary the Government of Punjab’s PKR 4.5bn Yellow Cab
Scheme (whose deliveries commenced in Sep-11) has augured well for the
company thus far. Moreover, a well diversified product mix has led to PSMC being
the only company in the sector that operates in all segments (i.e. high end, midsized,
economy and LCV segments). These two factors are the primary
contributors to PSMC’s impressive top-line growth.

Recommendation
Our DCF based Dec-12 target price for PSMC works out to PKR 75.0/share, which
offers an upside potential of 18% from last closing price of PKR 63.8/share. We
thus recommend a Buy stance on the scrip.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 15, 2012, 12:57:24 PM
Farzooq bhai,why its going down? :confused1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 15, 2012, 01:53:16 PM
bought more today in range of 61-61.5
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 15, 2012, 11:04:46 PM
PKR/JPY slides to Rs1.088; autos key beneficiaries
Yesterday USD$/JPY rose to 84.08, highest since April 2011.
Subsequently, PKR/JPY declined by 1% to 1.088, which is
down 8.4% from Feb 1, 2012. We believe, the auto
assemblers are likely to benefit the most, as a large quantity
of their auto parts are sourced in from Japan. Hence we see
substantial improvement in their margins going forward, if car
prices are kept unchanged. We maintain our ‘Market-Weight’
stance on the sector.

Jsgcl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 16, 2012, 10:38:44 AM
bought more today in range of 61-61.5

Sold some 63.5-64  :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 16, 2012, 10:59:04 AM
sold all my PSMC @ 63.20

break even incl. broker commission
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 16, 2012, 11:55:25 AM
lock :banana: :banana: :banana:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 16, 2012, 06:54:14 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company-CY11 Preview
Pak Suzuki is expected to announce its CY11 results on 19th March 2012. We
believe the company would make a PAT of PKR 1,035m (EPS PKR: 12.58) as
compared to PAT of PKR 211m (EPS PKR: 2.57) earned during CY10. We do
not expect the company to announce any dividend.

taurus


Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 16, 2012, 06:55:35 PM
CY11 - Result Preview
PSMC is scheduled to announce its CY11 result on Mar 19’12. We expect the company to
post after tax earnings of PKR 1.02bn (EPS PKR 12.40), massively higher by 3.8x YoY from
PKR 211mn (EPS PKR 2.57) in CY10. Moreover, along with the result we anticipate a
dividend payout of PKR 2.00/share.
During 4Q CY11, net profit is expected to clock in at PKR 349mn (EPS PKR 4.24) as
compared to a loss of PKR 177mn (EPS PKR 2.15), while on a sequential basis earnings are
anticipated to be lower by 2%.

3mo ending % 12mo ending %
PKR mn Dec10 Dec11 ? Dec10 Dec11 ?
Net Revenue 11,141 14,790 33 42,643 53,339 25
Net Profit (177) 349 - 211 1,021 383
EPS (PKR) (2.15) 4.24 2.57 12.40
DPS (PKR) 0.50 2.00 0.50 2.00
Source: Company Accounts, Global estimates

Margin accretion led by higher sales
PSMC’s topline is expected to jump by 69% YoY to PKR 53.34bn during CY11 against PKR
42.64bn last year. The growth is mainly attributable to 1) Robust growth in volumes by
17% to 92,339 units in CY11; and 2) Upward revision in car prices by an average of 8%
during the period under review. Combined effect of higher sales and prices augmented
sales growth.
During 4Q CY11 alone, volumes inched up by 19% YoY to 24,303 units, where major
support came in from higher sales link to Punjab Taxi scheme, improving growth of
economy segment. Moreover, cheaper financing as a result of cut in DR and lower taxes
also supported growth in the period. In addition, higher prices by 9% YoY in 4Q CY11
further bolstered topline by 33% to PKR 14.79bn.

Core profit climbs high
Cost pressures slightly eased off, as our benchmark steel index went down by 10% QoQ to
USD 673/MT in 4Q CY11, however PKR devalued against JPY and USD by 2% QoQ and 1%
QoQ respectively. Nonetheless, on YoY basis steel prices inched up by 2%, while PKR
depreciated heavily by 9% in the period under review. However, we believe price increase
passed on by the manufacturers during the end of 3Q CY11 is more than sufficient to offset
higher input cost, while augmenting gross margin for 4Q CY11 to 4.25% as compared to
0.2% in same period last year.
Moreover, continuous devaluation of PKR against JPY in CY11 by 12% YoY to PKR 1.08/JPY
along with surge in steel price by 15% YoY is likely to put a downward pressure on
margins. Hence, we expect gross margin to the tune of 3.98% in CY11. Furthermore, with
subdued growth in opex during the year, we expect operating profit to swell by 8x to PKR
965mn in CY11.

Other income’s support to benefit bottomline
We expect other income to be higher by 25% YoY to PKR 716mn during CY11, mainly due
to higher orders from Punjab cab scheme and back log of orders, resulting in higher
advances from customers. Moreover, higher cash balance is also likely to help in increasing
the support to the growth. Resultantly, we anticipate EBIT margin to go up by two fold to
3.2% from 1.6% in CY10.

CY12 may witness lower offtake
Recent ban imposed on CNG kits will hurt sales for the economy segment dominant
assembler. Moreover, with phase out of Alto and Coure, PSMC will remain the key player in
the segment where Mehran and Cultus are expected to steal the share. However, with no
order intake for CNG variants, sales are likely to be hit from 2Q CY12 onwards. In addition,
we link improving currency position, where PKR appreciated by 4% against JPY since the
start of Mar12, as a positive trigger moving forward.
At current levels, PSMC offers an upside of 12% to our Dec12 Target Price of PKR 69/share
and we maintain BUY. PSMC is currently trading at a forward PE multiple of 4.81x while our
implied PE multiple works out at 5.40x, along with dividend yield of 5% based on CY12E
earnings.

global sec
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 16, 2012, 06:56:39 PM
PSMC to post PAT of Rs1.1bn (EPS Rs12.83) in CY11, dividend Rs1.00/sh
The company is expected to announce profit after tax of Rs1.1bn (EPS Rs12.83) in CY11, up
massively by 4x YoY. A 17% YoY in unit sales coupled with 9% YoY increased sales proceeds
are expected to support the bottomline. Moreover, another factor which is expected to
contribute more is the company's other income that is projected to post a 11%YoY increase.
On QoQ basis, the last quarter of CY11 is estimated to reduce company’s bottomline by
2.3% QoQ to Rs384mn (EPS Rs4.66) due to decline in unit sales by 5% QoQ. As the customers
prefer to book vehicles with the new year registration, therefore, during the last quarter the
unit sales of the company remained dull. Thus, amid decline in vehicle booking, other
income, which mostly comes from the advances from customers, was hurt during the quarter,
which is expected to decline 10% QoQ. We expect Rs1.00/sh dividend with the results.

Other income remains a trigger for bottomline in CY11
During CY11, the company's cash balance is expected to have reached at Rs8bn, which is
expected to add Rs473mn (Rs5.74/sh) to the company's bottomline. The massive surge in
the unit sales by 17% YoY has helped the company to book such a significant amount in the
bottomline. A far as margins are concerned, the gross margins of the company is expected
to post a significant improvement of 185bps to 4.2% in CY11 as the company increased its
product prices by five times during the CY11 (9% YoY) while change in the sales of the
product mix is also expected to provide some support to the bottomline. With the
improvement in other income by 11%YoY the net margin of the company is also expected
to rise by 145bps to 1.95% in CY11.

Unit sales to improve by 17%YoY
PSMC's unit sales went up by 17% YoY to 92.9k units. The new Swift recorded a massive
growth of 53% YoY to 5.9k units during CY11. Mehran posted a 28% YoY growth with 29.5k
units sales. The company sold 12.9k units of its Alto model coupled with 12.9k units of Cultus.
Bolan and Ravi also showed a increase of 23%YoY to 15.7k units and 4.9%YoY to 14.97k units
respectively, in CY11 while only Liana posted a decline of 26%YoY to 481 units. During CY11,
The gov’t of Punjab's Green Texi scheme helped the company to improve its unit sales as
the Punjab gov’t selected Suzuki's Bolan and Mehran for the scheme in CY11.

Outlook and Recommendation - 'Hold' with Jun-12 TP of Rs61/sh
As revival in the auto sales coupled with the company intending to increase prices in line
with rise in cost of production would provide a cution to boost earnings going forward. At
current levels, the scrip is trading at a PE of 9.1x based on CY12F earnings. We recommend
'Hold' on the scrip with a Dec-11 target price of Rs61/share.

investcap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 16, 2012, 11:16:59 PM
Monday ko psmc Sold krdena chahiye ya hold kro.Farzooq bhai please Advise
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: kamal on March 16, 2012, 11:20:05 PM
Monday ko psmc Sold krdena chahiye ya hold kro.Farzooq bhai please Advise

to me sale ...mainnay tau ajj sale kardia ... bot yesterday at 60.8

Profit milgaya ... Khatam...Rest ur decisioon ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on March 17, 2012, 10:03:14 PM
Monday ko psmc Sold krdena chahiye ya hold kro.Farzooq bhai please Advise

to me sale ...mainnay tau ajj sale kardia ... bot yesterday at 60.8

Profit milgaya ... Khatam...Rest ur decisioon ...


Kamal bro: always profit & never loss ki kya philosophy hai aakhir jo hamen samjh mein nah aate n apko 100 p/c aate hai.  :biggrin:  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 17, 2012, 11:40:23 PM
hold if down and sell when profit is available
holding can taken even months if price drops, don't sell in loss
thats all  :biggrin:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: kamal on March 18, 2012, 12:09:21 AM
Monday ko psmc Sold krdena chahiye ya hold kro.Farzooq bhai please Advise

to me sale ...mainnay tau ajj sale kardia ... bot yesterday at 60.8

Profit milgaya ... Khatam...Rest ur decisioon ...


Kamal bro: always profit & never loss ki kya philosophy hai aakhir jo hamen samjh mein nah aate n apko 100 p/c aate hai.  :biggrin:  :biggthumpup:

ur rite ...yaar meray portfolio main is waqt koi bhee share gain main nahee hoga ... Reason .... Kiunkai jismain loss hota hai woh main AFS main rakhta huun and jismain even 1-2% gain bhee milta hai i sale it ... and woh meray HFT main hojata hai .. Frquent shifting karta huun ... Point yeh hai kai meri balance sheet pai accumulated profit hai and unrealised loss on remeasurement of AFS securities hai ...

Further what i observed u people mind is like rationale investor jab TP aiyge tau baichunga ... contrary to this ..where is profit even per share 1 ka bhee faia ho tau isale ... it ..and book profit ...its irresistable ... JSCL main i have booked profits on 90% portfolio ..10% remaining hu knoes ... Monday kau JSCL meray portfolio main bhee nahee ho.. I dont have JSIL ...as well..

PSMC i sold it profit that matters abb meri bala sai yeh 100 ka hojai ...

Waisay current market boom nai difference of accum profit and unrealised loss ka diff + (positive kardia) ... hai .. Thats good indicatior ..

Glaxo i bot 69 sold at 71-72 shaid if i remembers ... 2-3 days sai NRL main 253.5 pai position laita huun and next day 256.5 pai sale ..

Poorana 360 wala para hua hai ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Valueestimator on March 18, 2012, 08:23:31 PM
this is the best formula.

jab tak gaiin/loss realize na karo there should be no happiness/no worries.

agar koi soda sasta/loss per baich du tu utni hi keemat ka koi sasta soda khareed lu.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 19, 2012, 10:58:44 AM
Eps 9.65 Dps 2Rs.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 19, 2012, 11:29:46 AM
Lower Locked... yaani yay kyun? result to acha bhala hay. log kya 200 rs expect karahay thay kya. 60 rs k share k 9.65 eps hee hoga...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on March 19, 2012, 11:38:13 AM
Eps 9.65 Dps 2Rs.
Shoo..
Alhamdolillah
Timely exit!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 19, 2012, 11:39:47 AM
Lower Locked... yaani yay kyun? result to acha bhala hay. log kya 200 rs expect karahay thay kya. 60 rs k share k 9.65 eps hee hoga...

eps was below expectations 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 19, 2012, 01:24:55 PM
Farzooq bhai, i have 5000 psmc @ 62.please tell me hold kro ya sale.also mention the target of sale.thanxs in advance.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 19, 2012, 01:33:02 PM
Farzooq bhai, i have 5000 psmc @ 62.please tell me hold kro ya sale.also mention the target of sale.thanxs in advance.

I think k SPOT tak hold karna chahiyay... baqi Farzooq bhai ki advice ka main bhi wait karonga:)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 19, 2012, 01:45:12 PM
Farzooq bhai, i have 5000 psmc @ 62.please tell me hold kro ya sale.also mention the target of sale.thanxs in advance.

I think k SPOT tak hold karna chahiyay... baqi Farzooq bhai ki advice ka main bhi wait karonga:)

yes its a hold till spot, below expected eps resulted in lower lock.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 19, 2012, 01:47:13 PM
Farzooq bhai, i have 5000 psmc @ 62.please tell me hold kro ya sale.also mention the target of sale.thanxs in advance.

I think k SPOT tak hold karna chahiyay... baqi Farzooq bhai ki advice ka main bhi wait karonga:)

yes its a hold till spot, below expected eps resulted in lower lock.

Thanks. Ap say kuch seekh liya shayayd :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 20, 2012, 11:36:35 AM
PSMC reports almost four times higher earnings….

Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd (PSMC) has announced its CY11 results today. The company has posted a massive 3.76 times higher earnings as the Profit After Tax (PAT) of the company has reached PKR794m translating into an EPS of PKR9.65 as against PAT of PKR211m and EPS of PKR2.57 respectively in the corresponding period last year. In our view, higher prices and volumetric sales was the reason behind this substantially higher profit in CY11. During CY11 average prices of the cars were seen about 6.4% higher than the last year whereas total sales of the cars were seen massively higher by 17% YoY to 92,339 units as against the total sales of 78,638 units in CY10. Sale of Suzuki Motorcycles was also seen 11% YoY higher to 21,154 units as against 19,013 units in the same period last year. Suzuki Swift, Suzuki Mehran and Suzuk Bolan remained as the most wanted segments with as cumulative sales of the these three segments registered a sharp increase of 29% YoY to 51,073 units having about 55% share in total volumetric sales. Sales of Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan were primarily because of deliveries against the yellow cab scheme launched by the Government of Punjab. Resultantly, total monetary sales of the company posted a rise of 24% YoY to PKR52.72bn in CY11 as against the sales of PKR42.64bn. Similarly, cost of sales also showed a huge upsurge of 22% YoY primarily because of weak PKR/JPY parity. It is worth mentioning here, as per our working on the cost of sales of the company, if rupees shows the depreciation of 1% its puts an additional burden of around 2.39% on the cost of sales of the company. The company has reported a gross profit of PKR1.87bn (gross margin of 3.55%) as compare to gross profit of PKR1bn in CY10 (gross margin of 2.35%)
In CY11, Profit before Tax (PBT) of the company has reached PKR1.37bn showing a huge growth of 104% YoY as against the (PBT) of PKR668m in CY10. Even though the operating costs have shown a growth of 20% YoY mainly because of the sharp rise of 16% YoY to PKR736m in administrative expense of the company while distribution cost also showed a rise of 34% YoY to PKR264m in CY11. Nevertheless, decline in Financial cost by 16% YoY upsurge in other income by 8% YoY contributed in strengthening the bottom line further.
We would also like to highlight that the company has paid the tax on an effective tax rate of 42% in CY11 whereas in CY10 PSMC had realized tax at 68%.
Going forward, we see dwindle in the earnings of the company owning an unstable macro economic outlook of the country which might result as further depreciation in Pak Rupee against the major currencies and also because of the lower production because of the ban on the use of CNG kits. The company enjoys over 60%market share in the cars market as it caters demands of middle income groups which are in fact the masses whereas recent bans on use of CNG kits in cars would hit the company sales negatively. We estimate the decline of around 20% in sales of the cars in CY12 as company’s sales are driven by Mehran, Bolan, Alto and Swift  and ban on CNG kits would hamper sales of these segments. 

Our DCF based target price for PSMC is PKR74. We recommend a BUY on the scrip.

summit cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 22, 2012, 10:24:13 AM
2011 EPS up 3x despite below par showing in 4Q
PSMC announced 2011 EPS of PRs9.7/sh, up 276% YoY, falling short of our estimate of PRs12.5.
The final payout of PRs2/sh was inline with our estimates though. For 2011, PSMC raising prices
by 5?9% and 19% YoY higher car sales helped it in improving gross margins by 70bp to 5.4%
while other income improving by 4x YoY also lifted its bottom?line. PSMC delivered 7,500 units
for Punjab Govt taxi scheme during the year. The company’s 4Q11 results disappointed on
sharper than expected drop in GP margin to 4.7%. Moreover, a surprise 21% QoQ jump in
overheads and lower than expected other income also caused the underperformance.

PRs mn 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 QoQ YoY CY11 YoY
Revenues 12,570 10,681 15,298 14,170 ?7.4% 27.2% 52,719 23.6%
Gross Profits 579 710 870 664 ?23.7% 151% 2,822 42.1%
EBIT 110 221 406 133 ?67.2% ?173% 870 411%
Other Income 132 139 193 156 ?19.3% 18.1% 620 7.9%
PAT 91 187 393 123 ?68.7% N/M 794 276%

Key ratios
EPS(PRs) 1.1 2.3 4.8 1.5 ?68.7% N/M 9.7 276%
DPS ? ? ? 2.0 N/M 300.0% 2 300%
Gross profit margins 4.6% 6.6% 5.7% 4.7% ?100 bp 231 bp 5.4% 70 bp
EBIT margin 0.9% 2.1% 2.7% 0.9% ?171 bp 258 bp 1.6% 125 bp
Other/Net Income 59.7% 42.8% 34.9% 58.8% 24 ppt N/M 45.4% ?41 ppt
Car sales ? local 59% 42% 29% 54% 25 ppt 279 ppt 42% ?27 ppt
Motorcycle sales 23,373 18,248 26,415 25,208 ?4.6% 15.3% 93,244 18.6%
Source: PSMC, PAMA.

2012E – the volumes / profit conundrum
Going forward, we expect strong volumes in 1H to precede better profits in 2H12. We expect
1H12 volumes to grow by 9% YoY due to (1) peaking of deliveries before PSMC stops sales of
CNG vehicles and (2) delivery of remaining 12,500 units for Punjab Govt taxi scheme before
June. However, volumes should drop 11% YoY during 2H12 as recurring sales take a beating
from CNG ban. Meanwhile, as PSMC had locked?in orders and hedged Yen at higher rates, its
profitability may remain depressed during 1H. Our discussion with the management also echoed
the views that we will have to wait till 3Q12 before seeing benefits of Yen depreciation tricklingdown
to bottom?line, provided it stabilizes at current levels.

Revising estimates; reiterate U/P
Following the results, we revise PSMC 2012/13 EPS estimates by ?8/+5% however keep PO
unchanged at PRs60/sh and reiterate U/P. Although volumes remain strong, we believe (1)
uncertainty over Yen movement (our base case assumes PRs1.12/Yen by Dec?12) and volumes
in a post?CNG era would remain a drag on stock performance. On the up?side, we flag proassembler
developments as part of MFN dialogue with India as key trigger. Autos and auto parts
are part of negative list for initial discussions. However, automakers successfully persuading
Govt to open auto parts or other equipment imports from Jan?13 onwards could be a trigger.

Summary of estimate change
PRs/sh Old New chg
EPS ? CY12 11.4 10.5 ?8.1%
EPS ? CY12 12.0 12.6 5.1%
DPS ? CY12 2.0 2.0 0.0%
DPS ? CY13 2.0 2.0 0.0%
Source: KASB Estimates.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec 10 11 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 9.7 10.5 12.6
DPS (PRs) 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.0
P/E (x) 23.6 6.3 5.8 4.8
D/Y (%) 0.8% 1.7% 3.3% 3.3%
P/B (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Source: PSMC, KASB Estimates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 22, 2012, 01:39:28 PM
lock :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: riz on March 28, 2012, 03:28:13 PM
Farzooq bhai,why its going down I am target 70 to sell.is it possible or not.please guide.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on March 30, 2012, 12:05:18 PM
PSMC: Downgraded to ‘Hold’

? We have revised our model for PSMC where our Dec12 TP for the scrip
now stands at PKR67/sh
? Our earnings estimates for the company have been revised upwards to
PKR 10.99 CY12 on the back of increasing volumetric sales
? We believe the company’s other income to expand by 17%-45% in
CY12-CY14, increasing its contribution to bottom-line by 66%-69% in
CY13
? Though the biggest concern of continuous depreciation of Pak rupee
against Japanese yen and USD has slowed down, we believe bigger
challenges are still ahead in terms of revision of AIDP, government
consideration to reduce tariff on imported vehicles and duty benefit to
new entrants
We have revised our model for PSMC where our Dec-12 TP for the scrip now stands
at PKR67/sh, leading to a downgrade of our stance to ‘Hold’. We believe the scrip is
fairly valued on risk-return basis based on decline in sales post taxi scheme in CY13
and CY14.
Expanding Volumes a short term phenomenon
PSMC sold 92,339 cars in CY11 which were 17% higher than CY10 primarily on
account of taxi scheme launched by provincial government of Punjab. We believe this
trend would continue partially in CY12 as well where we believe additional 10k
vehicles would be sold. However discontinuation of their prime variant ‘Alto’ from
Jun12 would drop some sales from the company’s umbrella which along with
discontinuation of CNG variants would turn down the volumetric growth to negative
1%. Resultantly we believe volumes to clock at 91,429 units in CY12.
Moreover post taxi scheme, we expect sales growth would not sustain. The volumes
would thus fall in the range of 5%-8% in CY13-CY14. Thus, taking account of this fact
we believe the company offers short term returns rather stable long term earnings
growth.
Margin to stay stable
Stabilizing Pak rupee against Japanese yen (up 5% in CY12 to date) has relieved
some pressure from local assemblers. Assuming less volatile PKR against JPY & USD
and higher proportional increase in car prices, we believe gross margins would sustain
at the current levels in CY12, expanding meagerly from CY13-CY16. We have
assumed gross margins to remain in the range of 3.6%-3.9% in these years.
Stable other income to support
Despite falling sales post CY12, higher cash generation over better sales in CY11 and
CY12 and improved gross margins would let the company float in hard times. We
believe the company’s other income to expand by 17%-45% in CY12-CY14, increasing
its contribution to bottom-line by 66%-69% in CY13. PSMC currently holds PKR7bn as
cash and equivalents which translates into PKR88 per share.

Outlook: ‘Hold’ advised
Though the biggest concern of continuous depreciation of Pak rupee against Japanese
yen and USD has slowed down, we believe bigger challenges are still ahead in terms
of revision of AIDP, government consideration to reduce tariff on imported vehicles and
duty benefit to new entrants. We believe this would continue to keep pressure on
PSMC and other assemblers while adverse policy may change fundamentals as well.
Thus considering these numerical and non-numerical risks on Pak Suzuki we revise
our stance from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’.


BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 02, 2012, 11:24:11 AM
Nearing its target of 70 start reducing  :banana:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 02, 2012, 12:41:53 PM
PSMC raises the car prices by PkR10k to PkR110k on different models from Apr 1’12
April 2, 2012 10:07

PSMC raised the car prices by PkR10k to PkR110k on different models from Apr 1’12. In this regad, price of Mehran was raised by PkR10k, Alto by PkR20k, Cultus by PkR25k, Swift by PkR40k, Liana by PkR110k while the price of both Bolan and Ravi were raised by PkR15k.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 03, 2012, 11:42:36 AM
Raising estimates, upgrade to Neutral
In a surprise move, Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) raised its selling prices by 1.4?3.8% w.e.f.
1st April. The price hike should boost the company’s profits 2Q12 onwards, in our view.
Adjusting for this, we revise PSMC’s 2012/13 EPS estimates by 46/27% to 15.3/16.1, DPS from
2.0/2.0 to PRs3.0/4.0 and lift our Price Objective from PRs60 to PRs77. We also upgrade the
stock to Neutral from Underperform. The stock is currently trading at 2012 P/E of 4.5x, P/B of
0.3x and offers 4.3% D/Y and 11% upside to our Price Objective. We are upbeat about strong
QoQ sales performance in near term and valuations appear attractive. However, lower volumes
post conclusion of Taxi scheme, risk of weaker than expected sales due to ban on CNG and FX
volatility remain key risks preventing us from being more aggressive on the stock.

A surprise price hike
We term the recent price hike, where PSMC has raised its prices by PRs10,000?25,000 (except
PRs40,000 for Swift and PRs100,000 for Liana whose contribution to sales is lower), as a positive
surprise as the company recently deferred its decision to raise prices. Recall that Indus raised
their prices in Feb?12 where PSMC did not follow suit since Yen has depreciated against Rupee
and is now trading around PRs1.1. We should see impact of the price hike becoming visible from
2Q12 where we expect EBITDA to improve by 150bp QoQ to 4.5%. (1) Higher selling prices and
(2) strong volumes as taxi scheme nears its end should help PSMC in raising its profits from
PRs2.8/sh in 1Q12E to PRs6.5/sh in 2Q12E.
It is pertinent to mention that PSMC is operating at wafer?thin operating margins (0.9% in 4Q11,
1.2% in 1Q12) where income on cash holdings and customers’ advances still contributes >50%
of profits. As a result, small tweaks in prices / costs have inflated impact on the company’s
earnings. Moreover, since PSMC had locked?in orders and hedged Yen at higher rates, benefits
of Yen depreciation will be fully visible 3Q12 onwards, provided Yen stabilizes at current levels.

Why not a buy?
We refrain from putting a Buy on PSMC and flag three key factors; (1) the company’s recent
outperformance vs. the industry where its volumes are up 35% YoY in 8MFY12 vs. 16% for the
industry is more a factor of Punjab Govt taxi scheme than underlying strength in demand.
Hence, the company’s volume should drop by ~20% QoQ in 3Q12 once deliveries are over. (2)
Margins are still weak that would keep FX volatility as key risk to bottom?line, and (3) the impact
of ban on CNG vehicles and shrinking discount between CNG and petrol, in addition to rising
petroleum prices, is yet to fully unfold in the company’s volumetric sales. On the upside,
current PRs/Yen parity levels of ~PRs1.1 turning out to be the “new normal” offer upside risk to
our mid?term earnings estimates.

Summary of estimate change
PRs/sh Old New chg
PO 60 77 28%
EPS ? CY12 10.5 15.3 46%
EPS ? CY13 12.6 16.1 27%
DPS ? CY12 2.0 3.0 50%
DPS ? CY13 2.0 4.0 2x
Source: KASB Estimates.
PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec 10 11 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 9.7 15.3 16.1
DPS (PRs) 0.5 1.0 3.0 4.0
P/E (x) 27.0 7.2 4.5 4.3
D/Y (%) 0.7% 1.4% 4.3% 5.8%
P/B (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Source: PSMC, KASB Estimates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 05, 2012, 12:32:37 PM
We have incorporated the detailed accounts of Pak Suzuki Motor Company
(PSMC) into our financial model and changed our recommendation to ‘Hold’. The
share price of PSMC has appreciated by 14.5% since Mar-12. At the current price
of PKR 68.7, the scrip offers an upside potential of 9% to our Dec-12 DCF based
target price of PKR 75.0/share. The stock is currently trading at a CY12 PER of
6.3x. The Company will be discontinuing its Alto model during the year. Although
contributing ~16% to PSMC’s revenues, we expect sales to be supported in the
form of higher Cultus and Mehran sales as PSMC is the only auto assembler
operating in the mid-economy segment (<1000cc).

Profitability skyrockets by 276% YoY
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) posted CY11 profit after tax (PAT) of
PKR 794mn (EPS: PKR 9.65), depicting a phenomenal 276% YoY growth from
CY10 PAT of PKR 211mn (EPS: PKR 2.57). In line with this growth in earnings,
PSMC also declared a final cash dividend of PKR 2.0/share, which is a 300%
jump over CY10’s DPS of PKR 0.5. The Company’s higher profitability is mainly
attributable to a 17% YoY growth in volumetric sales to 92,705 units and an
average 8% YoY hike in prices of its models. This appreciation in prices helped
mitigate the impacts of PKR depreciation and increase in steel price during CY11.
Higher other operating income (up by 8% YoY to PKR 620mn) and lower finance
cost (down by 16% YoY to PKR 18mn) further supported the Company’s bottomline.

4QCY11 a minor blemish on an outstanding year
In 4QCY11 PSMC’s PAT declined by 69% QoQ to PKR 123mn (EPS: PKR 1.49),
as compared to PKR 393mn (EPS: PKR 4.77) recorded in 3QCY11. This was
mainly on account of a squeeze on gross margins, which declined to 3% during
the quarter under review (3QCY11: 4%) as a result of incessant PKR depreciation
against JPY and lower production. PSMC recently announced another price hike
of PKR 10,000-110,000 on various models, a move which will work to restore the
Company’s margins to 9MCY11 levels. The Company’s top-line during the quarter
contracted by 7% on a QoQ basis to PKR 14,170mn. This decline was expected
due to the calendar year end phenomenon. PSMC’s bottom-line during the quarter
was further dented by a 54% effective tax rate as compared to 29% in3QCY11
and 42% for the whole year.

Revenues jump by 24% YoY
Net revenues of the company registered an increase of 24% YoY to PKR
52,719mn compared to PKR 42,643mn in the corresponding period last year. This
healthy rise in top line was due to an average 8% YoY hike in prices of various
models, along with a 17% YoY growth in volumetric sales to 92,705 units. Although
the Punjab Government’s Yellow Cab Scheme augmented sales by 6,870 units in
CY11, the growth in top-line was also supported by an uptick in sales of Ravi,
Swift, Alto and Cultus which grew by 107%, 53%, 12% and 2% respectively, and is
a manifestation of the Company’s diverse product mix.

Margins improve by 119 bps
The Company witnessed its gross margins improve to 3.55% in CY11 from 2.35%
in the corresponding period last year. Incremental price hikes of ~8% on all models
during the year along with the impact of higher localization levels and increasing
economies of scale owing to higher production are the primary reasons behind this
improvement, which offset the ~ 13% YoY PKR depreciation against JPY and ~2%
YoY increase in steel prices. As of Feb-12, this trend in PKR depreciation has
reversed, and we expect it to stabilize at the current level of PKR 0.91/JPY.

CY10A CY11A CY12E
Total Equity (PKRbn) 14.5 15.3 16.0
Total Assets (PKRbn) 19.3 23.3 24.2
Net Profit (PKRbn) 0.46 0.57 0.91
ROE (%) 3.2% 3.7% 5.7%
EPS (PKR) 5.55 11.30 11.00
P/E (x) 12.39 6.08 6.25
P/B (x) 0.39 0.37 0.35
DPS (PKR) 0.50 2.00 2.00
Div Yield (%) 0.7% 2.9% 2.9%

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 12, 2012, 01:14:18 PM
PSMC remained the leader with another 12% MoM sales growth, mostly from improving
supplies to Punjab Govt taxi scheme.

PSMC is channeling all of its production of Mehran and Bolan cars towards the Punjab Govt taxi scheme
to ensure they achieve the target of delivering 20,000 units by Jun?12.
We remain optimistic about PSMC’s strong showing in 1Q12 with EPS of PRs2.8/sh that should
further improve to PRs6.5 in 2Q12 and act as near?term trigger. The stock is trading at 2012E
P/E of 4.5x and offers 4.3% D/Y and 12% upside to our PO of PRs77.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec CY10 CY11 C’12E C’13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 9.7 15.3 16.1
DPS (PRs) 0.5 1.0 3.0 4.0
P/E (x) 27.0 7.2 4.5 4.3
D/Y (%) 0.7% 1.4% 4.3% 5.8%
P/B (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Source: PSMC, KASB Research.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 24, 2012, 11:33:26 AM
PSMC: Profitability to continue on upward trajectory
The Board of Directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is
scheduled to meet on April 26, 2012 to approve the financial results for 1QCY12.
We expect the company to earn profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 387mn (EPS: PKR
4.70) in 1QFY12, representing a 4.2x YoY jump from 1QCY11’s PAT of PKR
91mn (EPS: 1.11). We believe this increase in profitability is primarily due to an
estimated 47% YoY improvement in the Company’s top-line to PKR 18.5bn,
brought about by a 31% YoY growth in sales volume to 30,642 units and a 9%
YoY hike in prices. Gross profit of the Company in 1QCY12 is expected to be
around PKR 760mn, translating into a gross margin of 4.2%, as compared to 2.9%
in the preceding quarter and 2.7% in the corresponding period last year.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 25, 2012, 12:36:51 PM
PSMC: 1QCY12 Result Preview

The Board of Directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to finalize the financial result for 1QCY12 on April 26’12. We expect the company to post NPAT of PkR463mn in 1QCY12 versus NPAT of PkR92mn in 1QCY11, representing a massive growth of 405%YoY. The result translates into an EPS of PkR5.62 in 1QCY12 against an EPS of PkR1.11 in 1QCY11. This robust earnings growth is mainly expected to be driven by 1) 49%YoY growth in topline helped by 31%YoY growth in volumetric sales and higher prices, 2) projected gross margin of 4.7% in the quarter (up 202bps YoY) because of low steel prices and price hikes, and 3) 43%YoY increase in ‘other income’. On a sequential basis, earnings are expected to grow by 278%QoQ due to higher sales volumes and improved margins. The company's topline is expected to grow by 33%QoQ on the basis of 26% increase in car sales volumes and 15% increase in Motorcycles' volumes. We are in the process of revisiting our investment case for PSMC and in this regard will be updating investors shortly.

akd
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 25, 2012, 10:06:20 PM
PSMC to post PAT of Rs413mn (EPS 5.02), up 351% YoY, 237% QoQ
The company is expected to announce PAT of Rs413mn (EPS Rs5.02) in 1QCY12, up by a
massive 351% YoY. The gigantic rise in the profitability is mainly due to 31%YoY increase in
unit sales coupled with 9%YoY increase product prices. Moreover, the other income of the
company is also estimated to have helped in boosting up the bottomline of the company
as it registers a healthy growth of 49%YoY to Rs196mn in 1QCY12. In the light of historical
payout trend, we do not expect any cash dividend from the company with the results.
Company’s bottomline is also expected to jump 237% on QoQ basis due to 23%QoQ primarily
due to increase in company’s sales volumes. As the customers prefer to book vehicles with
the new year registration, therefore, during the last quarter company’s unit sales remained
dull. As such, the other income of the company is also expected to decline (income comes
from the customers’ advances).
At current levels, the company scrip is trading at a PE of 5.5x and 6.1x based on CY12 and
CY13 earnings estimates, respectively. We recommend 'Buy' on the scrip with our revised
Jun-12 target price of Rs92/share

investcap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: th3.inv3stor on April 26, 2012, 10:31:07 AM
EPS 7.15 more than expected. ;)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: AlK on April 26, 2012, 03:10:55 PM
thats why its upper locked
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Poker Face on April 29, 2012, 07:21:29 PM
@ Farzooq

I think Q1 eps could have been figured out by Mid March or around late April when March sales were out. I think we missed an abvious 10-15% capital gains?  :bangin:
Or were u in?  :biggrin:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 29, 2012, 07:56:35 PM
@ Farzooq

I think Q1 eps could have been figured out by Mid March or around late April when March sales were out. I think we missed an abvious 10-15% capital gains?  :bangin:
Or were u in?  :biggrin:

Yes.  I missed it too as i sold out before annual result and didnt buy back as 4q result was below estimates.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Irfankhan on April 29, 2012, 07:58:01 PM
@ Farzooq

I think Q1 eps could have been figured out by Mid March or around late April when March sales were out. I think we missed an abvious 10-15% capital gains?  :bangin:
Or were u in?  :biggrin:

Yes.  I missed it too as i sold out before annual result and didnt buy back as 4q result was below estimates.
Seniors i am on the boat and inshallah will start selling from tomorrow upper cap at every cap 20% of my holding. :banana:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on May 04, 2012, 11:42:20 AM
Downgrade to U/P as robust earnings play out
Turnaround in PSMC’ financial performance in 1Q12 (EPS: PRs7.2, up 6.4x YoY) and excitement
about strong 2Q due to full impact of stable Yen and last leg of Punjab govt. taxi scheme has
triggered a rally in its stock price. PSMC’s stock price has already rallied 41% (up 35% relative to
KSE) in last 1M alone. While we do not rule out continuation of upward momentum in nearterm,
we believe recent excitement on strong 1H12E earnings will be short?lived as (1) volumes
contract with the completion of taxi scheme orders in Jun?2012; and (2) the impact of ban on
CNG kits, liberal import policies, higher POL prices and stricter environmental regulations
becomes visible. Incorporating robust 1Q results, we raise our CY12E EPS by 40% to PRs21.4
though tweak CY13E EPS down to PRs14.5/sh on expected pressure to margins. We also revise
our PO by 12% to PRs86. However we downgrade PSMC to U/P from Neutral on impeding
weakness in earnings and expensive multiples where it is trading at 2013E P/E of 6.7x (at a
premium to 6.3x for KASB Universe vs. a discount in the past).

PSMC valuation matrix Summary of estimate change
YE: Dec 10 11 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 9.7 21.4 14.5
DPS (PRs) 0.5 1 4.0 4.0
P/E (x) 37.8 10.0 4.5 6.7
D/Y (%) 0.5% 2.1% 4.1% 4.1%
P/B ( x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
PRs/sh Old New Chg
PO 77 86 12%
EPS ? CY12 15.3 21.4 40%
EPS ? CY13 16.1 14.5 ?10%
DPS ? CY12 3.0 4.0 33%
DPS ? CY13 4.0 4.0 0%
Source: KASB Estimates Source: PSMC, KASB Estimates

Better QoQ earnings profile, but downhill post 1H
Impressive earnings in 1Q were primarily driven by (1) 31% YoY higher volumes supported by
orders from Punjab Govt Taxi scheme; (2) increase in gross profit margin from 2.7% to 5.2% due
to improved localization, mix shifting towards high margin small cars and stable yen. We see
further improvement in 2Q12 sales and expect the company to maintain its gross margins as the
full impact of a stable yen and recent price hike plays out.
However beyond 1H, apart from risk to volumes (currently lifted by taxi scheme), FX volatility
remains a key risk to earnings where yen has already started to show nominal gains (+ 4.4%
from its low seen in Mar?12 to PRs1.13). Moreover, we believe PSMC will be forced to raise its
selling prices in July to cover cost hike emanating from mandatory compliance to Euro?II
standards. This will be critical in the wake of already strong imports of used cars and weak
agriculture income.

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on May 04, 2012, 12:17:31 PM
Earnings grow six-fold, prompting us to revise our estimate and target price
Pak Suzuki Motor Company’s (PSMC) 1QCY12 net earnings soared by 6.4x YoY
to PKR 589mn (EPS: PKR 7.15), as compared to PKR 91mn (EPS: PKR 1.11) in
the corresponding period last year. This stellar performance has prompted us to
revise upwards our CY12 EPS estimate to PKR 21.37 and Dec-12 Target Price
PKR 110 respectively. We believe that following the completion of the yellow cab
scheme and cessation of production of Alto (both by Jun-12), earnings should
normalize in the latter half of the calendar year.

All-round performance boosts top-line by 49% YoY
Top line of the company registered a significant growth of 49% YoY to PKR 18.8bn
compared to PKR 12.6bn in same period last year. This is mainly due to a 31%
YoY volumetric growth in total cars sales to 30,642 units and an average 9% YoY
rise in car prices. Although the Company sold 3,130 units (of Mehran and Bolan
models) under the Yellow Cab Scheme, its other models managed to show
substantial double-digit sales growth too. Amongst the top performers in the
Company’s product portfolio were Swift, Alto, and Cultus, registering sales growth
of 50%, 39% and 29% respectively.

Earnings to ‘normalize’ in 2HCY12
We expect PSMC to report net earnings of PKR 1,131mn (EPS: PKR 13.74) in
1HCY12. However, these above-normal earnings are not expected to continue in
2HCY12, in which we estimate the Company to earn PKR 628mn (EPS: PKR
7.63). We base our view on the fact that PSMC will be discontinuing Alto, which
contributed an estimated 18% to the Company’s revenue in 1QCY12. Also, the
Yellow Cab Scheme will be coming to an end in Jun-12. As per the original order
of 20,000 vehicles, the Company’s volumetric sales should be impacted negatively
by around 5,000 vehicles per month. Having said this, we reiterate our belief that
PSMC’s Mehran and Cultus models are likely to be the major beneficiaries of this
discontinuation, as these are the two most viable alternatives of Alto.

Recommendation
Our DCF based Dec-12 target price for the stock of PSMC works out to PKR 110
per share, which offers an upside of 13.5% from last closing price of PKR
96.9/share. We thus issue a ‘Buy’ call. The scrip is trading at a CY12E and CY13F
PER of 4.4x and 6.8x respectively.

CY11A CY12E CY13F
Total Equity (PKRbn) 14.5 15.3 16.0
Total Assets (PKRbn) 19.3 23.3 24.2
Net Profit (PKRbn) 0.79 1.76 1.17
ROE (%) 5.5% 11.5% 7.3%
EPS (PKR) 9.65 21.37 14.16
P/E (x) 10.04 4.53 6.84
P/B (x) 0.55 0.52 0.50
DPS (PKR) 2.00 4.00 3.00
Div Yield (%) 2.1% 4.1% 3.1%

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on May 25, 2012, 01:59:29 PM
PSMC: One Timers Driving Profitability for CY12

   One time uptick in volumes (taxi scheme), recent slowdown in Pak rupee depreciation against Japanese Yen and expected price increase this year compels us to revise our TP for PSMC upward

   The Pak rupee depreciation has finally started to slow down thanks to excessive interference by Japanese regulatory authorities. This slowdown has provided a much needed relief to auto assemblers, thereby reducing the costs and ultimately amplifying profits

   The company was scheduled to deliver 20k cars (Mehran and Bolan) till June FY12 however amid delayed payments and the ban on CNG kits still 6k-7k cars are pending and we believe would remain so till 3QCY12

   According to news flows, government has finalized AIDP 2, details of which are yet to be seen. Moreover, APDMA has proposed to further reduce import duties and depreciation rates on imported vehicles which seems highly unlikely and thus we downplay this

   The news flows also suggest that government may reduce the duties on CKD in upcoming budget as a populist measure to reduce car prices, which we believe is a likely case

   With a TP of PKR88/share,we maintain our ‘Neutral’ stance on PSMC which is available at CY12E and CY13E PER of 3.52x and 5.72x respectively
 
bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on June 01, 2012, 09:39:38 AM

Preparing to launch new EFi models by Jul-12
PSMC has all set to introduce its new Electronic Fuel Injection (EFi) variants from Jul-12 in the
place of direct fuel injection variants. The company would introduce these variants on
premium of around Rs50k. Introduction of new models in the absence of any local assembled
small cars (800cc to 1000cc) in the market, these fuel efficient system variants will play the
vital role in the growth of the company.

Sharp depreciation in PKR damaging margins
Current, sharp depreciation in PKR against USD by 3.7% during 2QCYTD would reduce the
gross margins of the company as the company imports around 35% of its parts from different
countries. However, the company policy to pass on the cost appreciation to customers
could save the margins to some extent.

After Jun-12, budget and sales implications
Budgetary measure: an increase in the age limit of used imported cars to ten (10) years
could restrict the growth of locally assembled cars sales. Moreover, downward revision in
import duty on CBU and CKD could be neutral for the company if the reduction would be
with same pace. Furthermore, including of auto parts in the positive list from India imports
would be better for local assemblers as cheap parts will be available due to less freight and
comparatively low prices. Moreover, the company is currently producing ~10k units/month,
however, after the completion of govt. of Punjab order of green cabs in Jun-12 production
of per month can down towards 8000-8500 units/ month therefore the company has to face
decline in sales from Jul-12 onwards.

PSMC posted PAT of Rs589mn (EPS Rs7.15) in 1QCY12
The company is in the recovery phase as its bottomline improved by massive 5.4x on YoY
basis to Rs589mn (EPS Rs7.15) in 1QCY12. The phenomenal growth in unit sales by 31%YoY to
30.6k coupled with 10%YoY increase in sales prices were the primary motives behind
bottomline growth.

Recommendation ‘Buy’ with Dec-12 TP of Rs125/share
Going forward, we see further depreciation in PKR against USD and JPY led significant
threat to the profitability (if the company doesn’t pass on the cost). Furthermore, relaxation
in the age limit of cars upto ten (10) year poses another threat for the topline. Currently, the
scrip is trading at PE multiple of 6.5x and 7.3x on CY12 and CY13 earnings estimate. We
recommend 'Buy' on the scrip with revised target price of Rs125/share for Dec-12.

investcap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on June 11, 2012, 12:01:13 PM
Yellow cab scheme announced by the Punjab govt
The Punjab government has continued with its yellow cab
scheme and made it a part of its budget for the next year. To
recall, last year the Punjab government offered 20k units of
Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan on concessional rates to the
general public. While the details of this year’s provincial
budget will be available soon, we believe Pak Suzuki to be
the lone beneficiary of this year’s scheme as well.

jsgcl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on June 13, 2012, 10:36:40 AM

PSMC: Taxi scheme & Alto phase-out to shape outlook

Pak Suzuki posted an impressive sales performance in May-12 (up 33% YoY), however we continue to believe potential headwinds are likely to affect sales growth going forward, due to ban on CNG kits and potential relief in CBU duties. Hence we maintain our estimate of 26% HoH decline for now.

However we would closely track granular details on two recent developments to gauge whether a revisit is warranted: 1) Continuation of the Punjab Taxi Scheme in FY13, as announced in Punjab budget and 2) realignment of product profile where PSMC plans to phase out Alto July-12 onwards.

We also highlight that the recent price increase of PRs35,000 on Mehran, Bolan and Ravi and PRs20,000 for Cultus effective June 11th should be margin neutral, as it is a pass-on of the impact of conversion to Euro-II compliant vehicles.

However given the latest price hike, the ability to pass-on any cost pressures could reduce going forward. Reiterate cautious stance on the stock, given that any potential 2Q result-related excitement could be short-lived, in our view

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on July 20, 2012, 11:21:09 AM
Negative newsflow on auto sector ; Re?iterate U/P on PSMC
Recent sector newsflow regarding slowdown in booking orders in July, and rise in used cars
import by 3.3x YoY to ~56k units, reinstates our view that auto sales are likely to suffer July
onwards. We attribute the decline to the impact of (1) latest round of price?hike in June?2012,
(2) relaxed import policies, (3) ban on CNG kits import and (4) completion of Punjab Taxi
Scheme orders. Despite negative newsflow, Pak Suzuki Motor Company’s recent impressive
stock price performance (up 19% and outperforming the index by 13% in the last 1?month) is
reflective of strong 2Q12E result excitement, in our view. We expect earnings to grow by 4x
YoY/ 24% QoQ to PRs8.9/sh, taking 1HCY12 earnings up 4.7x YoY to PRs16.1/sh. However, we
flag caution as PSMC stock price is yet to incorporate potential decline in sales in 2HCY12E,
and lower pricing power for PSMC, in our view.

2QCY12E: Multi?year high earnings on improved margins
We expect EBITDA margins to clock in at a strong 7% in 2Q12E, driven by (1) 69% YoY jump in
sales and (2) increase in prices in Apr?2012 to pass?on FX costs. Improved sales for PSMC (up
48% YoY in 1HCY12) were mainly on account of completion of taxi scheme orders in Jun?2012
where close to 13k units sold in 1HCY12 are likely to be attributed to the same. Moreover,
Suzuki raised prices by ~2% in Apr?2012 to more than offset the rise in FX cost, as benefit of
relatively stable yen in Mar/April should further help boost margins in 2QCY12E.

Expect lower earnings trend in 2HCY12E…
We believe result?related excitement is likely to lose steam post?announcement given (1)
potential downtrend in earnings (by 66% HoH) driven by expected decline in sales (on
discontinuation of Alto and taxi scheme) and (2) lower pricing power, going forward. Latest
reported data on used cars imports indicates majority (44%) of units belonged to small?to?mid
sized segment (specifically targeted by PSMC). As a result, in a weak demand scenario for
locally assembled cars, PSMC lacks sufficient pricing power to pass?through FX costs going
forward, where recent pressures on PkR/Yen (5.5% depreciation since mid?May 2012 to date)
could increase challenges faced by the company. We reiterate U/P on PSMC with a PO of
PRs86/sh, with the stock trading at CY13E P/E of 7.6x at current levels.

We believe (1) a new variant launch in place of Alto (which has been discontinued since July?
2012) and (2) extension of Punjab taxi scheme are key drivers that could provide upside to our
earnings estimate.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 08, 2012, 09:44:29 PM
I think psmc will be hit quite badly by the influx of reconditioned imports in the market.
Their products are quite crap compared with imports, which are better quality and have more features even 4-5 years old.
3q12 will reflect the new market dynamic for psmc
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on August 24, 2012, 12:37:05 PM
PSMC reports 392% YoY increase in bottom line for 1HCY12

          Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) reported PAT of PKR1,369mn (EPS: PKR16.64) for 1HCY12, up by phenomenal 392% YoY primarily driven by 57% increase in net turnover. This exceptional increase in net sales was a result of 1) completion of the yellow cab scheme driving up volumes by 40% YoY and 2) increase in car prices twice (Jan’12 and Apr’12) by ~7% to pass on the Rupee depreciation
          Moreover, change in taxation scheme on account of turnover tax adjustment also played its part as the company’s effective tax rate reduced to 26.5% in 1HCY12 from 48% in the same period last year
          For 2QCY12, the company reported PAT of PKR780mn (EPS: PKR9.48), representing YoY increase of an exorbitant 317%
          For 2QCY12, PSMC’s revenue increased by 57% YoY to PKR36,471mn due to better volumes and price increases
          PSMC sold 30,797 cars in 2QCY12 as compared to 18,248 in the same period last year mainly due to the Yellow Cab Scheme where Mehran and Bolan were the prime beneficiaries. Subsequently, Mehran (company’s major revenue driver) witnessed an increase of ~90% in volumes QoQ to 9548 units followed by Bolan registering a 94% increase in volumes
          Going forward, phasing out of the Yellow Cab scheme coupled with discontinuation of ALTO would reduce the volumetric sales post CY12 thus suggesting a Neutral stance on PSMC

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: naumaan on August 25, 2012, 09:57:21 AM
Pak Suzuki profits shot up five times form the millions to billions with the Punjab taxi scheme acting as the turbocharger.
The country’s largest automobile assembler profits grew by 392% to Rs1.37 billion in the first six months of 2012 against Rs279 million reported in the same period last year, according to a notice sent to the Karachi Stock Exchange on Friday.

Mehran – the company’s highest selling car – witnessed an increase of 45% to 18,117 units followed by Bolan registering a 101% increase to 13,692 units.
Liana was the only car of the company that showed a drop in sales by 11% to 251 units.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/425792/corporate-results-suzuki-profits-speed-up-five-times/ (http://tribune.com.pk/story/425792/corporate-results-suzuki-profits-speed-up-five-times/)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 25, 2012, 12:27:43 PM
Pak Suzuki profits shot up five times form the millions to billions with the Punjab taxi scheme acting as the turbocharger.
The country’s largest automobile assembler profits grew by 392% to Rs1.37 billion in the first six months of 2012 against Rs279 million reported in the same period last year, according to a notice sent to the Karachi Stock Exchange on Friday.

Mehran – the company’s highest selling car – witnessed an increase of 45% to 18,117 units followed by Bolan registering a 101% increase to 13,692 units.
Liana was the only car of the company that showed a drop in sales by 11% to 251 units.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/425792/corporate-results-suzuki-profits-speed-up-five-times/ (http://tribune.com.pk/story/425792/corporate-results-suzuki-profits-speed-up-five-times/)

I hope they invest the bumper profits and introduce quality cars at affordable prices.  ::)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on August 25, 2012, 06:12:23 PM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Valueestimator on August 26, 2012, 12:23:38 AM
WHAT IS THE AVERAGE EPS OVER LAST 5 YEARS, I BELIEVE IT WOULD BE LESS THAN 10
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on August 26, 2012, 06:40:15 PM
125 seems to be the fair value for this stock based on latest EPS .
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 27, 2012, 12:17:17 AM
125 seems to be the fair value for this stock based on latest EPS .

outlook is looking more and more dodgy though ..
http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=26_08_2012_011_002

Though media is often full of crap and planted stories
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on August 27, 2012, 11:18:52 AM
PSMC: 1HCY12 Result

PSMC has posted above-consensus NPAT of PkR1,369mn (EPS: PkR16.64) in 1HCY12 against NPAT of PkR279mn (EPS: PkR3.39) in the corresponding period last year, translating into stellar growth of 4.9xYoY. In this regard, volumetric sales grew by 48%YoY in the review period (the company sold 13,130 ‘taxi’ units in 1HCY12 through the Government of Punjab Taxi Scheme) while a 3%YoY decline in steel prices became the basis for a 263bps expansion in gross margins to 6.17%. As a result, PSMC’s topline increased by 57%YoY to PkR36bn in 1HCY12. Following higher cash balances, 'other income' increased by 23%YoY in 1HCY12. 

On a sequential basis, PSMC recorded NPAT of PkR781mn (EPS: PkR9.48) in 2QCY12 (highest quarterly earnings since 2QCY07) vs. NPAT of PkR589mn (EPS: PkR7.15) in 1QCY12, a growth of 33%QoQ. Strong earnings in 2QCY12 were mainly driven by 1) 198bps QoQ increase in GP margin to 7.19% (based on stable JPY/PkR parity, decline in steel prices and increase in selling prices) and 2) 62% growth in 'other income’ to PkR206mn -  the highest in 3.5yrs.

Going forward, sequential earnings are likely to slow down on 1) completion of the Government of Punjab Scheme (although we note that the FY13 Punjab Budget has indicated potential for an extension in the Scheme) and 2) likely reduced income on cash placements following the recent DR cuts. The domestic auto industry faces tough competition from imported variants while banks by and large still appear reluctant to extend auto finance schemes. We are in the process of reinitiating coverage on PSMC and will update investors shortly. 

akd
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 27, 2012, 11:54:54 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/31:automobile-assembler/2734:suzuki-in-the-driving-seat/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on August 31, 2012, 12:21:55 PM
Government of Punjab about to extend Punjab Taxi schemes by 15000 cars until the end of January 2013. Notice is expected to be announced in the next few days. Lao maal Suzuki. Big brokers have information on this. Big buyers in Suzuki today.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on September 01, 2012, 01:21:26 AM
AKD has entered in Pak suzuki
Strong buy call Around 96-100
Flight is ready to take off.
 :D
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 01, 2012, 10:31:19 AM
I have been into PSMC at 93. Seems like it tries to break 100 but falls back to 96 due to selling pressure. Technically it should be bullish as I am watching it RSI.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 01, 2012, 10:53:34 AM
Just see that RSI is going in oversold region and RSI Divergence is now bullish
(http://s13.postimage.org/qdgtltgnr/psmc.png)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Hamid Mamraiz on September 01, 2012, 10:55:47 AM
I have been into PSMC at 93. Seems like it tries to break 100 but falls back to 96 due to selling pressure. Technically it should be bullish as I am watching it RSI.

Bhai jan MACD aur RSI dono ko mila kar dekho tab samajh aye ge technicallay kidhar hai..

MACD is mother of all the signals... RSI to sirf aap ko overbought ya Oversold bataye ga...  MACD sahi trend batate hai share ka
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 01, 2012, 11:59:40 AM
I agree. MACD is also an important thing and so are many other. I have got major profits by looking at RSI and RSI Divergence. MACD is a lagging indicator and triggers a buy signal when the share is already bullish. I am trying to analyse the probability bullishness of non bullish share to get major gains. I am attachin MACD of PSMC too
(http://s10.postimage.org/be1yzttyx/psmc.png).
You can see MACD in the middle panel and one can easy guess that any day green line can cross over the red to make it bullish. I cannot say with guarantee but usually this is best time to buy.

Disclaimer:-  The information shared should not be taken as buy or sell signal. Do your own diligence if you want to jump into this script
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on September 01, 2012, 12:34:28 PM
I agree. MACD is also an important thing and so are many other. I have got major profits by looking at RSI and RSI Divergence. MACD is a lagging indicator and triggers a buy signal when the share is already bullish. I am trying to analyse the probability bullishness of non bullish share to get major gains. I am attachin MACD of PSMC too
(http://s10.postimage.org/be1yzttyx/psmc.png).
You can see MACD in the middle panel and one can easy guess that any day green line can cross over the red to make it bullish. I cannot say with guarantee but usually this is best time to buy.

Disclaimer:-  The information shared should not be taken as buy or sell signal. Do your own diligence if you want to jump into this script

If you are making money following a system continue following it but remember the importance of stops in any case.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 01, 2012, 12:37:20 PM
I am into stock market for the past 7 years though new to this forum. Learnt many bitter lessons. I have learnt how to control emotions and greed. Stop loss is one of them. I always put stop loss on recently appreciated stocks and never go in penny stocks.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Dehan on September 01, 2012, 01:45:08 PM
I am into stock market for the past 7 years though new to this forum. Learnt many bitter lessons. I have learnt how to control emotions and greed. Stop loss is one of them. I always put stop loss on recently appreciated stocks and never go in penny stocks.

Lugay rohoo Muhammad Bhai.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on September 01, 2012, 06:30:28 PM
I agree. MACD is also an important thing and so are many other. I have got major profits by looking at RSI and RSI Divergence. MACD is a lagging indicator and triggers a buy signal when the share is already bullish. I am trying to analyse the probability bullishness of non bullish share to get major gains. I am attachin MACD of PSMC too
(http://s10.postimage.org/be1yzttyx/psmc.png).
You can see MACD in the middle panel and one can easy guess that any day green line can cross over the red to make it bullish. I cannot say with guarantee but usually this is best time to buy.

Disclaimer:-  The information shared should not be taken as buy or sell signal. Do your own diligence if you want to jump into this script




More than technical the fundamental value of has risen based on the latest financial results.
With full year EPS around 25-30 the stock is trading at P/E of 4 which is undervalued.
TARGET PRICE with P/E 5.1= 130-135
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 03, 2012, 10:13:19 AM
Upper Cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 03, 2012, 09:34:10 PM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.

Did anyone benefit from my call? Why only one thanks then. There will 4 more locks. And one major news in Suzuki.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Saiti on September 03, 2012, 09:49:24 PM
All hail the king... the new king that is!  :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on September 04, 2012, 12:54:15 AM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.

Did anyone benefit from my call? Why only one thanks then. There will 4 more locks. And one major news in Suzuki.

gud call..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on September 04, 2012, 12:55:21 AM
AKD has entered in Pak suzuki
Strong buy call Around 96-100
Flight is ready to take off.
 :D

gud call..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on September 04, 2012, 07:37:11 PM
aj lock opend and traded wid good vol, anyone comments? how much upside more? 10-15%?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 04, 2012, 08:05:54 PM
aj lock opend and traded wid good vol, anyone comments? how much upside more? 10-15%?

There is enough room in PSMC, rally is just started but sadly market is overbought and may effect PSMC too. I sold half of my holding though i wished i could hold it. I am a little bit concious and try to keep booking the profits in over bought market. May be i will skip some profit but i made sure that i have got my money back :)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 04, 2012, 11:21:01 PM
Trade policy news. Government has kept the time limit of old cars at 3 year from 5 years. This will be announced in the next few days. Lao maal Suzuki.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 05, 2012, 07:23:00 AM
Trade policy news. Government has kept the time limit of old cars at 3 year from 5 years. This will be announced in the next few days. Lao maal Suzuki.

FBR Has recently clarified on this. I donot think that this is on the cards. Seems like rumour at this time ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on September 05, 2012, 08:51:58 AM
According to our initial estimates, local auto assembler will be able to increase prices to maintain margins in addition to volumetric growth and the change in rules can impact positively Indus & Pak Suzuki earnings by 5-8%, respectively.

topline sec
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M&M on September 05, 2012, 10:17:31 AM
Trade policy news. Government has kept the time limit of old cars at 3 year from 5 years. This will be announced in the next few days. Lao maal Suzuki.
mazak masti karne aaye ho iss forum pe ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: babar4289 on September 05, 2012, 01:06:08 PM
moti kahin tu maaaf kar do
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 05, 2012, 01:25:59 PM
moti kahin tu maaaf kar do

Sell on strength when market is overbought. Limit your exposure and invest in dividend High yielding stocks like APL. Avoid katchra at all.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 05, 2012, 03:23:40 PM
Could not control and bought PSMC back looking at its support at around 100. Lets see now...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 05, 2012, 03:24:35 PM
moti kahin tu maaaf kar do

Sell on strength when market is overbought. Limit your exposure and invest in dividend High yielding stocks like APL. Avoid katchra at all.

+100
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on September 05, 2012, 03:33:26 PM
Is there any upside potential in PSMC ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 05, 2012, 11:12:58 PM
News is confirmed. Next week you will hear it. This is why PSMC is trading high volumes. Anyone has a lot of 100,000 shares I can buy at 105 but should be one lot. This will be bought through negotiated deal market.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: hammad01 on September 05, 2012, 11:18:09 PM
Bilal bhai this means you are ready to invest over 10 million in just one company, pretty strange :bigeyed:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on September 05, 2012, 11:18:52 PM
bought plenty at an avg price of 103.88... planning to hit & run..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: babar4289 on September 06, 2012, 12:07:29 AM
Bilal bhai Allah app ki zaban mubarak karay aur is bar appp app ki izzat reh jaye  :tongue:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on September 06, 2012, 12:18:39 AM
Bilal bhai Allah app ki zaban mubarak karay aur is bar appp app ki izzat reh jaye  :tongue:

Ameen..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on September 07, 2012, 11:45:38 AM
News is confirmed. Next week you will hear it. This is why PSMC is trading high volumes. Anyone has a lot of 100,000 shares I can buy at 105 but should be one lot. This will be bought through negotiated deal market.

tumhay to Allah puchay ga.. Gareeb ki aisi taisi kardii..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 07, 2012, 02:34:18 PM
Check out Japanese Yen. Pak Suzuki's margins will improve next quarter. lao maal 140.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on September 07, 2012, 02:40:43 PM
\
Check out Japanese Yen. Pak Suzuki's margins will improve next quarter. lao maal 140.

Khuda ka khauf karo yaar..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: loveworld84 on September 07, 2012, 02:49:15 PM
Bilal bhai this means you are ready to invest over 10 million in just one company, pretty strange :bigeyed:

Bilal bhai app ko kia milta hai new investors ko miss guide kar k ? pata hai sub app ko is forum ka willan samajhtay hai just like Shafqat cheema ^^^ ;) :bangin:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 07, 2012, 03:48:46 PM
look at psmc now
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on September 07, 2012, 04:00:01 PM
101 high price.. where are 4 caps?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on September 07, 2012, 04:49:30 PM
101 high price.. where are 4 caps?

Bro Roz caps laney lagey to  sarey crore patee ho jain. Every stock has risks assosiated. Donot expect that everyone is sharing authentic news and it will rise on that day. Tomorrow you may make money.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: KSE Investor on September 10, 2012, 11:33:13 AM
FBR revises depreciation allowance calculation

FBR has revised mode of calculating depreciation allowance, whereby used period for cars is
now calculated from “Jan 1st subsequent to year of manufacture”, instead of from the year of
registration. While there has been no change in depreciation rate or limit announced by FBR,
the revised calculation may restrict tax benefit and effectively increase imported car prices. We
believe the measure could result in potential improvement in pricing power for PSMC and pose
potential upside in demand for local cars where every 1% increase in sales would translate to
0.5%/1.8% upside in 2012/13E earnings for PSMC.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on September 10, 2012, 11:33:32 AM
PSMC: Downside risks intact; Re?iterate U/P
 We raise our PO for PSMC by 9% to PRs94/sh and 2013E EPS by 6% to PRs15.3,
after incorporating improved demand for EFI (Euro?II compliant) cars by 3% in
2013E and lower WACC assumptions.
 FBR’s recent move to revise mode of calculating depreciation allowance may
restrict tax benefit and effectively increase imported car price in small end cars.
 We believe the above measure could result in potential upside in demand for
local cars where 1% increase in sales would translate to ~1.8% upside in 2013E
earnings for PSMC or relatively improve its pricing power.
 However we refrain from turning Neutral on the stock as of now, and re?iterate
Under?Perform given (1) earnings are set to decline in 2H12E by an estimated
72% HoH, owing to declining sales and (2) clarity is yet to emerge on auto import
policy which is expected to be relaxed in the upcoming months.

Raise estimates after Euro?II compliance and lower discount rate
We raising our PO for PSMC up 9% to PRs94/sh, incorporating lower WACC assumptions after
recent cut in discount rate and higher 2013E EPS by 6% to PRs15.3 on expectations that demand
for EFI (Euro?II compliant) cars will normalize in 2013E, after dipping significantly by ~29% HoH
in 2H12E. Due to weaker sales in 3Q12E after recent price hike, we maintain 2012E earnings at
PRs21.4/sh despite above?expected earnings announcement for 1H12 (PRs16.6/sh vs. our
estimate of PRs16.1/sh) on tax benefit realized by PSMC. We maintain U/P on the stock which is
currently trading at 6.5x 2013E earnings.

PSMC: Estimate change
PRs/sh Old New % change
PO      86.00 94.00 9%
2012E EPS 21.4 21.4 0.0%
2013E EPS 14.5 15.3 6.0%

FBR revises depreciation allowance calculation
FBR has revised mode of calculating depreciation allowance, whereby used period for cars is
now calculated from “Jan 1st subsequent to year of manufacture”, instead of from the year of
registration. While there has been no change in depreciation rate or limit announced by FBR,
the revised calculation may restrict tax benefit and effectively increase imported car prices. We
believe the measure could result in potential improvement in pricing power for PSMC and pose
potential upside in demand for local cars where every 1% increase in sales would translate to
0.5%/1.8% upside in 2012/13E earnings for PSMC.

Re?iterate U/P as earnings set to decline
Despite some relief for local car assemblers coming from FBR and consequent increase in stock
price (PSMC stock price up 4.3% last week), we await clarity on auto import policy and AIDP?II
before upgrading the stock to Neutral. Recent news flow suggests Trade Policy to be unveiled
this month includes sector?negative policies such as increase in allowed age limit of used
imported cars from 5 years to 7 years.
Hence we remain cautious on PSMC, given earnings are set to decline in 2H12E by an estimated
72% HoH, owing to sales attrition as impact of (1) completion of Punjab taxi scheme with limited
possibility of extension, (2) banned CNG kits, (3) higher car price and petroleum prices and (4)
Alto’s production phase out. We expect demand for local auto sales (now Euro?II compliant) to
somewhat normalize in 2013E, and as a result upgrade our volumes estimate by 3% where
vehicle sales are now expected to decline by 9% YoY in 2013E.

kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on September 13, 2012, 11:27:00 AM
Weaker auto sales in Aug?12; Reiterate Under?perform rating for PSMC
Weaker sales outlook (local auto sales down 30% YoY in 2MFY13) and potential sector headwinds
after the announcement of revised duty regulations and AIDP?II, are the key near?term risks to
auto sector outlook, in our view. We expect local auto sales to decline by 14% YoY in FY13E,
(3.2% YoY adjusted for Alto and Cuore assembly). While improved sales for Mehran and Cultus
helped offset the absence of Alto sales in Aug?12, sales for LCVs (down 23% YoY) have also been
affected after June?12 price hike, maintaining a weak near?term outlook for PSMC. Reiterate U/P
with a PO of PRs94/sh.

PSMC valuation matrix
YE: Dec C’10 C’11 C’12E C’13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 9.7 21.2 15.4
DPS (PRs) 0.5 2.0 4.0 3.0
P/E (x) 38.2 10.1 4.6 6.4
D/Y (%) 0.5 2.0 4.1 3.1
P/B (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Source: PSMC, KASB Research.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on September 13, 2012, 08:21:42 PM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.

Did anyone benefit from my call? Why only one thanks then. There will 4 more locks. And one major news in Suzuki.

yaar yeh bongiyaan marny k lye bus yahi side mili hey apko??? engro, psmc, ptc, aur kitny farigh dehaan deny hen bhai ??? 4God sake... stop it.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on September 14, 2012, 01:00:19 PM
PSMC: Upgraded to ADD on better earnings outlook
 We raise our TP for PSMC BY 18% to PKR104/sh with upgraded CY13E EPS
of PKR17.8 on account of 1) increased pricing power despite influx of
imported vehicles and 2) lesser decline in volumes post phasing out of Alto
(as against our initial expectations)
 However, distant negative concerns over regulatory front (AIDP II revision
and CBU duty relaxation) and any abrupt movement in cost determinants
may keep the sector and scrip under check
 Despite influx of imported vehicle (three-fold increase in imports during
FY12), local car sales (ex-Punjab taxi scheme) witnessed an increase of 21%
along with a 7% increase in local prices
 We believe the reduction in duty depreciation would positively impact local
assemblers and hence we don’t see any major threat posed by imported
vehicles on volumetric front
 Thus all in all, with higher switch over expected demand to Mehran (as seen
in sales during Aug12) and steady improvement in volumes in CY14
onwards, we upgrade our volumetric and earning projections for the
company by 5% and 8% for CY13 and CY14 respectively
 We have an ‘ADD’ stance on the stock which is available at CY12E and
CY13E PER of 3.7x and 5.3x respectively.

We raise our TP for PSMC BY 18% to PKR104/sh with a CY12E and CY13E EPS of
PKR27.8 and PKR17.8 respectively on account of 1) increased pricing power despite
influx of imported vehicles and 2) lesser decline in volumes post phasing out of Alto.
Apart from this our industry checks suggest that government is expected to lift ban on
CNG kits which may also turn positive for the company considering its prime position in
the economy car segment.
However, distant negative concerns over regulatory front (AIDP II revision and CBU
duty relaxation) and any abrupt movement in cost determinants may keep the sector
and scrip under check.

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 18, 2012, 11:11:28 PM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.

Did anyone benefit from my call? Why only one thanks then. There will 4 more locks. And one major news in Suzuki.

yaar yeh bongiyaan marny k lye bus yahi side mili hey apko??? engro, psmc, ptc, aur kitny farigh dehaan deny hen bhai ??? 4God sake... stop it.

This was the first lock in a series of locks you will see.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 19, 2012, 03:12:49 PM
doosra lock aaj.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on September 21, 2012, 08:45:12 PM
PSMC: Upgraded to ADD on better earnings outlook
 We raise our TP for PSMC BY 18% to PKR104/sh with upgraded CY13E EPS
of PKR17.8 on account of 1) increased pricing power despite influx of
imported vehicles and 2) lesser decline in volumes post phasing out of Alto
(as against our initial expectations)
 However, distant negative concerns over regulatory front (AIDP II revision
and CBU duty relaxation) and any abrupt movement in cost determinants
may keep the sector and scrip under check
 Despite influx of imported vehicle (three-fold increase in imports during
FY12), local car sales (ex-Punjab taxi scheme) witnessed an increase of 21%
along with a 7% increase in local prices
 We believe the reduction in duty depreciation would positively impact local
assemblers and hence we don’t see any major threat posed by imported
vehicles on volumetric front
 Thus all in all, with higher switch over expected demand to Mehran (as seen
in sales during Aug12) and steady improvement in volumes in CY14
onwards, we upgrade our volumetric and earning projections for the
company by 5% and 8% for CY13 and CY14 respectively
 We have an ‘ADD’ stance on the stock which is available at CY12E and
CY13E PER of 3.7x and 5.3x respectively.

We raise our TP for PSMC BY 18% to PKR104/sh with a CY12E and CY13E EPS of
PKR27.8 and PKR17.8 respectively on account of 1) increased pricing power despite
influx of imported vehicles and 2) lesser decline in volumes post phasing out of Alto.
Apart from this our industry checks suggest that government is expected to lift ban on
CNG kits which may also turn positive for the company considering its prime position in
the economy car segment.
However, distant negative concerns over regulatory front (AIDP II revision and CBU
duty relaxation) and any abrupt movement in cost determinants may keep the sector
and scrip under check.

bma

Two locks lag gaye hain past week main. Kiya tum dekh rahe ho?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 02, 2012, 08:54:22 AM
Car assembler raises prices
By Aamir Shafaat Khan | 10/2/2012 12:00:00 AM
         
KARACHI, Oct 1: PakSuzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), having over 50 per cent market share, has increased prices of cars by Rs20,000-25,000 from Monday.

The new price of Suzuki Mehran VXR Euro-II and VX Euro-II is now quoted at Rs632,000 and Rs575,000 as compared to Rs607,000 and Rs555,000.

The price of Cultus VXR Euro-II, Swift DX, Swift DLX, Bolan VX and Ravi VX had been surged to Rs985,000, Rs1,154,000, Rs1,231,000, Rs654,000 and Rs602,000 as compared to Rs965,000, Rs1,131,000, Rs1,211,000, Rs634,000 and Rs582,000, respectively.

Honda Atlas had jacked up prices by Rs131,000 to Rs211,000 in the third week of September while introducing new model of Honda Civic.

http://epaper.dawn.com/~epaper/DetailImage.php?StoryImage=02_10_2012_009_012


 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 03, 2012, 11:21:39 AM
PSMC raises car prices by 1.7%?4.1% from Oct 1st
PSMC raised its unit prices by 1.7?4.1% w.e.f. 1st Oct, to account for the increase in cost
pressures driven by depreciation in PRs/JPY by an average 4.3% QoQ in 3Q12. Adjusting for this,
we see limited impact on 4Q12 earnings, given potential demand attrition in the present weak
demand environment, post?price hike. However, we raise our CY13E EPS/DPS to PRs17.6/sh (up
13.7%) and PRs4.0/sh (from earlier PRs3.0/sh) with a new PO of PRs99/sh, assuming (1) more
price hikes to follow in 2013E to offset cost pressures and (2) relatively firmer demand (flattish
growth YoY expected excluding last year’s taxi orders and Alto sales) as buyers adjust to non?
CNG fitted cars.

We cut 2H sales forecast by 6% on weak demand in near term…
While we wait for Sept sales figures to fine?tune our quarterly projections, the sluggish sales in
2MFY13 (down 37% YoY) and related news?flow highlighting non?production days adopted by
car assemblers due to influx of imported used cars, indicates overall weak demand for local
sales. In this backdrop, we cut our demand forecast further by 6% for 2H12 driven by
potentially adverse impact of recent price hike. As a result, we maintain our 2012E EPS at
PRs21.2 till further clarity comes in on (1) Sep?12 sales and (2) imminent regulatory changes.
…while raising 2013E EPS and PO up by 13.7%/5.3%
PSMC’s strategy to timely raise prices, even if it is at the cost of lower demand, makes us
believe that more price hikes could follow in 2013E. As a result, we raise our estimates for
2013/14E EPS by 13.7%/2.8% to PRs17.6/18.4 and 2013E DPS to PRs4.0 from earlier PRs3.0.
Moreover we tweak our PO up by 5.3% to PRs99/sh.

Maintain ‘Under perform’ rating on PSMC
While valuations have improved (CY13E P/E at 5.9%), we believe weak 2H12 earnings and
regulatory risks ahead are likely to depress stock price going forward, preventing us from
turning Neutral on the stock for now.
2H12 earnings are expected to decline by 26% YoY (and 72% HoH) to PRs4.6/sh mainly on the
back of expected 27% YoY decline in sales driven by (1) increased demand for used cars, and (2)
absence of Alto, CNG fitted cars and taxi orders.
Regulatory risk include relaxed import policy in the form of increase in permissible age limit of
importable used cars from current 5 yrs to 7yrs and reduction in CBU duties.

What can turn us positive on the stock
Key developments that would warrant a revisit to our stock rating are: (1) Tighter import policy
(increase in age limit of used car import and increase in CBU duties), (2) improvement in
purchasing power/per capita income, (3) extension in taxi scheme (low likelihood) and (4)
removal of restriction on CKD imports from India.

PSMC Valuation snapshot
YE: Dec 10A 11A 12E 13E
EPS (PRs) 2.6 9.7 21.2 17.6
DPS (PRs) 0.5 2.0 4.0 4.0
P/E (x) 40.5 10.8 4.9 5.9
D/Y (%) 0.5% 1.9% 3.8% 3.8%
P/B (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Source: KASB estimates
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 04, 2012, 09:29:59 AM
ak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) GM Marketing Azam Mirza told Dawn that company`s authorised dealers are offering vehicles at Rs10,000-12,000 discount in order attract buyers.

However, the PSMCL had raised the vehicle prices by Rs20,000-25,000 from October 1 due to increasing cost of production on account of losing value of the rupee against the Yen and other currencies.

He said Pak Suzuki is facing problems owing to drastic cut in its production of vehicles to Rs5,500-6,000 per month from 10,000 units produced every month from January to June this year followed by thin buying activity of locallyproduce cars.

Pak Suzuki had already suspended the production of Suzuki Alto in the country few months back. Besides, the company also provided 2,000 units of Bolan and Mehran to Punjab government from October 2011 to June 2,012 which also came to an end.

He said the ban on CNG kits and cylinders from December 2011 followed by suspension in production of gas vehicles further severely hit the PSMCL as it used to produce 80 per cent factory fitted gas and cylinder out of its total production. Owing to 30-40 per cent production slowdown the company has also reduced the orders for purchasing kits and accessories to its vendors by same percentage as sales prospects are also not very encouraging. Azam said Pak Suzuki may produce 5,000 units each in November and December respectively due to thin demand and buyers` shift towards used cars.

Market sources said that Pak Suzuki is considering running its plant on single shift from the current double shift besides cutting workforce of over 2,500 to offset the negative impact of sales and production.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on October 16, 2012, 10:40:17 AM


PSMC: Pedal to the Metal!

We reinitiate coverage on PSMC (CY13F P/E: 5.72x), the market leader in Pakistan’s auto space, with a Dec’13 DCF-based target price of PkR125/share implying an upside of 28%. After a tough run across CY08-CY10, the Gov’t of Punjab Taxi Scheme and Gross Margin at 5yr highs have given fresh impetus to PSMC with CY11 NPAT up 3.8xYoY and CY12F NPAT expected to close out with 2.2xYoY growth. Although the taxi scheme may not extend beyond the current year, potential favorable GoP policy tilt can sustainably turn the tide in PSMC’s favor particularly as the medium-term outlook for both steel and PkR/JPY parity is benign. PSMC is now the sole local assembler producing cars of 1000cc or lower, a segment which has a 60% share in Pakistan’s auto sales and 45% share in total car imports. Revival of auto financing, albeit at a more measured pace, also appears possible given recent monetary easing. Motorization levels remain low but are gradually increasing, which should benefit PSMC given its strong brand resonance, provided the GoP strikes the right balance between local and imported variants.     

Benign outlook for raw materials: PSMC’s margins have historically been most sensitive to steel, where outlook for steel prices is soft given the evident slowdown in Chinese manufacturing. Recall that China accounts for ~47% of global steel output while slowdown in China is already visible in iron ore prices which are down 15% CYTD. Outlook for JPY is also benign given recent quantitative easing measures by BoJ.

Underlying growth potential is huge: Car penetration ratio in Pakistan now exceeds 11 per 1,000 people vs. 9 in 2007. However, penetration levels are still one of the lowest in the world, pointing to huge underlying long-term demand potential where PSMC’s strong brand resonance is a key positive.                 .

Striking the right balance: There was a sharp increase in car imports in FY12 following relaxation in import duties, which resulted in imports growing by 3.3xYoY to 55k units vs. locally manufactured auto sales of 179k units. However, a shift in policy was witnessed in Sep’12 where the FBR has altered the car import depreciation schedule resulting in an increase in imported car prices to the tune of PkR26k-PkR300k across various segments. This should be of particular benefit to PSMC, the sole local assembler in the 1000cc  or lower category. With a return to IMF fold a possibility in 2013, auto import policy may become more stringent, to the benefit of domestic players.                         .

Auto financing can stage a comeback: The outstanding stock of auto loans is stabilizing (at ~PkR45bn) where we believe fresh loan offtake is now compensating for maturities. Considering interest margins are under pressure, banks may be tempted to reenter the auto finance segment, where outlook is brightened by recent monetary easing.

Valuations & Investment Perspective: PSMC has gained a robust 65%CYTD, outperforming the Index by 27% in the process. Nevertheless, at a CY13F P/E of 5.72x, valuations are still not stretched (this is at a 12% discount to the AKD Universe and also lower than the average normalized historical P/E of 6.3x for PSMC). We believe the market is still not fully appreciating the underlying positives where our target price of PkR125/share offers upside of 28%. Buy!

AKD
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on October 21, 2012, 06:53:15 PM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.

Mr Moti, where's your laao maal????? where 140 psmc??

tm zinda bhagy they ya murda ab batao zara? :tongue:

get a lyf :bangin:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on October 21, 2012, 06:59:14 PM
Lao Mall Suzuki 140/share. The other brokerage houses are negative on this stock yet it is through them all the buying in Suzuki is coming from. In no time this stock will hit 140.

Mr Moti, where's your laao maal????? where 140 psmc??

tm zinda bhagy they ya murda ab batao zara? :tongue:

get a life :bangin:

its time for u now apni bongiyan marna bund ker bhai tu ab :console:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on October 21, 2012, 07:05:15 PM
Dehaan maintained it will happen just let the trade policy come out and then you will mark my words.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on October 21, 2012, 07:07:00 PM
Dehaan maintained it will happen just let the trade policy come out and then you will mark my words.

ahhh u n ur funny jokes...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on October 21, 2012, 08:24:45 PM
Technically PSMC is making triple top. Any closing below 94.6 may be a reversal signal and PSMC slide further. During One month time PSMS tried to breach 106 3 times and all of time it reversed.It has already breached 98 support from which it rose back to 106 in previous run. This time story can be different so be watchful if it closes below 94.6
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 23, 2012, 11:37:45 AM
PSMC: 3QCY12 Earnings Preview

   PSMC is scheduled to declare its 3QCY12 results on October 25, 2012

   We estimate the company to post PAT of PKR377mn (EPS: PKR4.58/sh) in 3QCY12 compared to PKR393mn (EPS: PKR4.77/sh) posted same period last year, depicting a decline of 4% YoY

   On the volumetric front, PSMC was able to sell was able to sell 18,134 units cumulatively in the said period as compared to 26,134 units in 3QCY11 marking a substantial decline of 31% YoY

   We have an ‘ADD’ stance on the stock with a TP of PKR104/sh available at CY12E and CY13E PER of 3.7x and 5.3x respectively
 
bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 24, 2012, 02:47:50 PM
PSMC; Earnings expected to lower by 57% QoQ
The Board of Directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is
scheduled to meet on October 25, 2012 to approve the financial results for
3QCY12. We expect the company to earn profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 338mn
(EPS: PKR 4.10) in 3QCY12, decline of 57% QoQ. The decrease in profitability is
primarily due to 1) 33% QoQ decline in sales volume to 17,659 units, which leads
to 37% QoQ decline in the company’s top-line to PKR 11bn 2) Gross margin
dropped by 129 bps and stood at 5.9%, this was on account of cost burden of
Euro-II compliance and impressive sales volume in 2QCY12 due to expected
discontinuation of factory fitted CNG vehicles and Punjab government taxi
scheme, under which 20,000 units were delivered to government of Punjab which
reduces fixed cost 3) Discontinuation of Alto which comprises approximately 16%
of total sales 4) Strong competition from imported Japanese cars to economy
segment (1000 cc and lower) which is company’s primary target market for sales.

Financial Highlights (PKR mn)
3QCY12E 2QCY12A QoQ 9MCY12E 9MCY11A YoY
Sales 11,114 17,707 -37% 47,585 38,549 23%
Cost of sales 10,458 16,433 -36% 44,677 37,090 20%
Gross profit 656 1,273 -49% 2,908 1,458 99%
Distribution & admin. costs 264 322 -18% 840 722 16%
Other income 166 206 -19% 498 464 7%
Finance cost 5 2 98% 11 13 -15%
Profit before tax 519 1,075 -52% 2,383 1,100 117%
Taxation 182 294 -38% 676 429 58%
Profit after tax 338 781 -57% 1,707 672 154%
Earning per share 4.10 9.48 20.74 8.16
Source: Company financials and AHL Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: th3.inv3stor on October 25, 2012, 10:34:29 AM
3rd Q LPS 2.35
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on October 25, 2012, 10:59:16 AM
Bilal Moti ka 140 ka target to gaya....its now below 90
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 30, 2012, 11:55:42 AM
PSMC’s weak pricing power reflected in a gross loss in 3Q
On the other hand, Pak Suzuki surprised with a gross loss of PRs0.6/sh in 3Q12 (Net LPS
PRs2.38) due to incomplete pass?through of CKD import cost. While recent price hike (by 1.7?
4.1% on October 1st) should offset the same, weak volumes are likely to continue dragging nearterm
earnings. In addition, lower than expected interest income, possibly due to smaller
delivery period further dragged earnings into red during the quarter. Adjusting for the loss, we
cut CY12E EPS by 17% to PRs17.6. Moreover, we raise our CY13 EPS slightly by 5% to PRs18.5
tweaking volumes up slightly on normalized sales in CY13E. As a result, we keep our PO for
PSMC intact at PRs99/sh. Moreover, we maintain Under?perform rating for the stock, as weak
earnings profile is expected to keep stock price under pressure for now.
Key regulatory events to track after clarity on used car import policy are (1) introduction of
AIDP?II which could have a neutral to negative impact, and (2) removal of CBUs from negative
list of imports from India (expected to be done gradually).

PSMC ? Estimate Change
PRs/sh Old New % chg
PO 99.0 99.0 0.0%
EPS ? CY12 21.2 17.6 ?16.8%
EPS ? CY13 17.6 18.5 4.9%
DPS ? CY12 4.0 4.0 0.0%
DPS ? CY13 4.0 4.0 0.0%
Source: KASB Research.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on November 12, 2012, 01:06:24 PM
PSMC: Downgraded to ‘ADD’
 We bring down our TP for PSMC by 13% to PKR92/sh, revising our CY12E
earnings to PKR15.11/sh on account of lower volumetric offtakes amid
heavy influx of imported vehicles
 We believe that the imported cars have started to finally impact the local
assemblers and in numbers greater than our estimations
 Hence, to account for a more than expected decline in volumes, we revise
our volumetric assumption downwards by 5% to 96,598 units in CY12 to
fully incorporate the havoc caused by imported cars
 Weak volumes and increased competition from imported cars will not affect
the company’s pricing strategy as it seems all set to pursue its cost passon
strategy (prices increased from 1st Oct 2012)
 At our revised TP, the scrip provides a return of 9.5% from current levels
advocating an ADD stance and is available at CY12E and CY13E PER of 5.4x
and 4.71x respectively

3QCY12; LPS of PKR 2.35 compels to revise the earning projections
It’s been an eventful year for the entire automobile sector and PSMC is no different.
After witnessing an extraordinary 1HCY12 (profits up 5xYoY), the company entered
into the second half rather dismally by posting a loss of PKR193.265mn (Loss per
share 2.35) in 3QCY12. Subsequently, with absence of Punjab taxi scheme and
discontinuation of Alto, the net sales for the period declined by 25% to PKR11.4bn from
PKR15.3bn in the same period last year.

Such a turn of events surprised the market (street consensus expecting profits) and
hence leads us to revise our earning projections downwards for the company. We bring
down our TP for PSMC by 13% to PKR92/sh, revising our CY12E earnings to
PKR15.11/sh on account of lower volumetric offtakes amid heavy influx of imported
vehicles expected to continue its impact in the upcoming quarter along with seasonal
slowdown. Subsequently, we have brought down our volumetric assumption by 5%
despite better 1HCY12 to 96,598 units for CY12 (79,098 units in 9MCY12). Having
said, we believe the company would recover its volumes from CY13 onwards provided
regulatory concerns are addressed effectively.

Volumes: Doom and gloom
Despite phenomenal volumes in 1HCY12 (up 47%YoY), the company’s sales units
took a massive plunge downwards in 3QCY12 and decreased by 33%YoY whereas the
decline was greater on a QoQ basis (down 43%). This has concluded the CY12
volumetric up streak to 17%.
We believe that the imported cars have started to finally impact the local assemblers
and in numbers greater than our estimations. Hence, to account for a more than
expected decline in volumes despite better 1HCY12, we revise our volumetric
assumption downwards by 5% to 96,598 units in CY12 to fully incorporate the havoc
caused by imported cars. Having said, we expect the company to recover (ex-punjab
scheme volumes) its volumetric sales from mid CY13 provided higher expected switch
over demand to Mehran (the only car in small segment) amid a stringent, pro local
industry policy.

Story to be over prices in CY13
However, weak volumes and increased competition from imported cars will not affect
the company’s pricing strategy as it seems all set to pursue its cost pass-on strategy
(prices increased from 1st Oct 2012). Thus, we believe such price increases to be the
base case in CY13 as well and hence these will provide support to the company’s
profitability.

Regulatory concerns alive
Regulatory concerns will continue to keep the auto industry in pressure, we believe.
The government has failed to give any policy directive on key issues (CBU duty and
age limit of used cars) that has left the industry players confused. Until and unless
anything concrete comes out on the regulatory front, it will continue to nag PSMC and
remain key risks to the profitability of the company.

Outlook: Downgraded to ‘ADD’
No pro-industry progress on the regulatory front; AIDP II revision and decisions
regarding duties on Completely Built Units (CBU) is negatively impacting the local
OEMs leaving the industry in a confused state. Having said, any positive development
on the same remains a key upside risk to our valuations.
At our revised TP, the scrip provides a total return of ~10% from current levels
advocating an Add stance and is available at CY12E and CY13E PER of 5.4x and
4.71x respectively.

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 12, 2012, 07:26:14 PM
'add' nahi hai yeh, 'stay away' hai ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: space on November 12, 2012, 08:25:07 PM
'add' nahi hai yeh, 'stay away' hai ..

Hey @ouulman have you ever heard of  Downgraded to ‘ADD’ ??
Downgraded from what ? Sell your house and buy to ADD ?
I have never seen a rating where ADD comes after a downgrade, have you ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 12, 2012, 09:17:48 PM
'add' nahi hai yeh, 'stay away' hai ..

Hey @ouulman have you ever heard of  Downgraded to ‘ADD’ ??
Downgraded from what ? Sell your house and buy to ADD ?
I have never seen a rating where ADD comes after a downgrade, have you ?

 :D

downgraded from 'buy' i think.. some houses have 5 level of recommendations  instead of 3
buy, add/accumulate, neutral/hold, reduce, sell

buy is expected gains of more than 10%
add is 0-10%
and so on

or some variant of the above

but the surest way to lose money is to follow house recommendations on autos
they are generally 3-6 months behind the curve :D


also, psmc stay away cuz they proudly made a gross loss, after which a beating was needed
thori mili hai , outlook will remain negative unless there are some developments in the regulatory area
Quality of their product is so high that they cannot compete against 5 year old cars at the same/higher price.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on November 13, 2012, 12:38:15 PM
PSMC: Struggle continues…
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) registered a sales decline of
40% YoY to 5,094 units but continued its performance as a market leader despite a
2% YoY decline in market share to 57%. On a MoM basis, the company suffered a
16% decline in its sales volume in Oct-12. The reason behind this decrease was:
1) discontinuation of Alto, which was PSMC’s leading brand in 1,000cc category 2)
the influx of imported Japanese cars 3) completion of the Punjab gov’t taxi scheme
4) discontinuation of CNG vehicles and 5) year-end phenomenon. Company’s
variant wise data reveals that all the segments registered decline in sales during
Oct-12. Only Liana was able to register an apparently huge growth of 256% MoM
and 166% YoY, to 32 units. On the other hand, variants i.e. Swift, Cultus, Mehran,
Bolan and Ravi, showed a MoM decline of 18%, 3%, 20%, 12% and 24%
respectively.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mahmad786 on November 15, 2012, 12:46:22 PM
PSMC is again planning to manufacture ALTO ,starting from January. There is also a rumour that PSMC is launching its new Sedan this month.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 15, 2012, 12:52:04 PM
PSMC is again planning to manufacture ALTO ,starting from January. There is also a rumour that PSMC is launching its new Sedan this month.

they are upto something for sure as there have been significant investments in last couple of quarters ..
unlike indus, they dont give proper guidance about their models
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sanwar on November 15, 2012, 05:01:47 PM
PSMC is again planning to manufacture ALTO ,starting from January. There is also a rumour that PSMC is launching its new Sedan this month.

they are upto something for sure as there have been significant investments in last couple of quarters ..
unlike indus, they dont give proper guidance about their models

@Ouulman bhai, do you suggest entry at current level...??

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 15, 2012, 05:04:18 PM
PSMC is again planning to manufacture ALTO ,starting from January. There is also a rumour that PSMC is launching its new Sedan this month.

they are upto something for sure as there have been significant investments in last couple of quarters ..
unlike indus, they dont give proper guidance about their models

@Ouulman bhai, do you suggest entry at current level...??

i dont follow psmc that closely,  i dont like the company ... auto sector will remain under stress until gov policy on imports is cleared up..
Am sure there are better investments around..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on December 13, 2012, 11:37:00 AM
AKD Daily

PSMC: Estimates Revision

Following an unexpected Loss of PkR193mn (LPS: PkR2.35) in 3QCY12, we have lowered our target price for PSMC to PkR115/share but retain our Buy stance. While we expect the company to post a marginal Loss in 4QCY12 as well, we remain optimistic regarding prospects in CY13F based on reduction in used car age limit to 3yrs and revival of auto financing coupled with benign outlook for global steel prices and the PkR/JPY parity. We now expect PSMC to sell 89k units in CY13F and 93k units in CY14F, leading to revised EPS estimates of PkR14.49 in CY13F and PkR15.43 in CY14F. We believe our estimates are conservative where PSMC is expected to be the main beneficiary of the new auto import policy while potential re-launch of the Alto variant, subject to parts import from India, has not yet been incorporated in our model. Having shed 11%FYTD, PSMC trades at a CY13F P/E of 5.85x where our revised target price of PkR115/share offers upside of 35%. Buy!         .

Earnings Revision: PSMC posted an unexpected Loss of PkR193mn (LPS: PkR2.35) in 3QCY12 we expect a further Loss of PkR118mn (LPS: PkR1.44) in 4QCY12. This brings our CY12F EPS estimate to PkR12.85, up 33%YoY. Following on, while we have trimmed EPS estimates across our forecast horizon, we believe likely better auto sales numbers in CY13F will act as the catalyst for improved share price performance. In this regard, note that effective Dec 15'12, used auto imports above 3yrs will not be allowed (Ministry of Commerce has issued notification). This is expected to be very positive for PSMC where, out of the 26k used cars imported in 5MFY13, more than half came in the 1000cc or below category. We now expect EPS of PkR14.49 in CY13F and PkR15.43 in CY14F where upside risk to our estimates emanates from potential aggressive revival of auto financing due to lower interest rates and a benign outlook for both global steel prices and PkR/JPY parity.

5MFY13 auto numbers - past = future! Industry sales declined by 23%YoY/3%MoM in Nov'12 to 9,154 units. As a result, 5MFY13 auto sales have registered at 49,090 units, down 31%YoY. In this regard, in Nov'12 PSMC recorded sales of 5,584 units, down 29%YoY but up an encouraging 10%MoM due to improved Mehran sales. We believe the latter is more representative of PSMC's sales outlook where the smaller variants should come in for increased demand post anticipated reduction in the quantum of used cars imports. PSMC has sold 89,776 units in 11MCY12 (67,137 units adjusted for the Taxi Scheme and Alto) and we expect the company to sell 89k units in CY13F as it fills the space voided by imported used cars.

Investment Perspective: PSMC has shed 11%FYTD vs. a positive 21% return by the KSE-100 Index in the same period. Based on our revised estimates, PSMC trades at a forward P/E of 5.85x while our revised target price of PkR115/share offers 35% upside. In this regard, we believe likely better sales postings from CY13F onwards will act as the catalyst for improved share price performance. Buy!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mra901 on December 26, 2012, 03:38:24 PM
Pak Suzuki sells its property:

Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd. (PSMC) is selling its plot at SITE Area,
Karachi along with buildings and waste water treatment plant to
Reckitt Benckiser Pakistan Ltd. The deal has been struck at a value
of PkR 280 mn which holds an aggregate book value to PkR 6.0 mn
on the books of PSMC
. It is being done after its motorcycle plant
has been shifted in the vicinity of automobile plant at Bin Qasim,
Karachi. The total payment will be made in installments which are
likely to complete by April 2013 after which the ownership of the
assets will be finally transferred to the buyer. The sale of property
will have a one time incremental EPS impact of PkR 2.2 per share
on the books of PSMC during CY2013.


Alfallah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Atif1 on January 18, 2013, 07:14:36 PM
From The News Desk - AKD
PSMC may raise car prices by PkR20k-PkR25k per unit
January 18, 2013 10:53
  According to news reports, PSMC may raise car prices by PkR20k-PkR25k per unit, which if raised will be the first car price hike since the reduction in age limit for imported cars.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on January 19, 2013, 07:05:02 PM
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=509958449047760&set=a.368497373193869.85559.275893865787554&type=1&theater

Prices increased
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on January 21, 2013, 12:07:02 PM
PSMC increase car prices by Rs20k
Pak Suzuki (PSMC) has raised prices by Rs20,000 (2-3%) for its vehicles. PSMC
had last raised its prices in October 2012. It is important to note that the price hike,
is the first price hike announced by a local manufacturer since the cut in the age
limit of imported cars. We estimate an annualized earnings impact of ~Rs5/share
(24%) on PSMC 2013F earnings due to higher prices. However note that we have
already incorporated an increase of 6-8% in car prices in our 2013 earnings
forecast for PSMC. Hence, we retain our 2013F estimate of Rs20.5/share for now.
We reiterate our ‘Buy’ call on PSMC with a Target Price of Rs115.

jsgcl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on February 22, 2013, 11:43:22 AM
Pak Suzuki Motor Co. (PSMC): We signal Buy ratings | CY13PE 4.2x

We estimate that PSMC will come with a share holder's friendly annual report for the year ended in Dec 31, which is expected to be announcing in mid of March. Company has reported a sale of 147,000 automobiles and 20,000 motorcycles in the full year CY12 which includes 20,000 automobiles and 4,000 motorcycles sales during 4th quarter, which is increased by 40% from the last quarter's sales.

In this report we have also covered segments such as matters of trade with India and its probable benefits to PSMC.

CY12 EPS forecast Rs 20.30/sh with a probable dividend of Rs 3/sh

We expect that PSMC may report CY12 EPS Rs 20.30/sh as sales price of automobiles have increased and also cost of manufacturing has slightly decreased.

We also expect a possible cash dividend for the year ended, because PSMC has not announced any dividend in the last three quarters, and mostly it announces the dividend at the end of calendar years. It is also to be noted that last year company has given 20% cash dividend, when company reported EPS of Rs.10 per share, wherein for this year we have estimated a maximum dividend of Rs 3.0/sh spelling a mere dividend yield of 3% thus making not so attractive for dividend connoisseurs.

Performance of PSMC

Being a market leader with 57.7% market share by volume which is driven from the last seven months sale of local manufactured cars in Pakistan, company is on good track.As company has large manufacturing unit installed in Pakistan and currently it increased its capacity utilization to 71% which was 62% utilized in last year to meet the increasing demand by local public and government both, so we can say that PSMC may further increase its production to come up with future increasing demand.

 Forecasted cumulative Profit and loss Statement for the CY12

We assume a cumulative gross margin of 5% for the calendar year, due to the devaluating of Japanese yen against Pakistan rupee, as most of spare parts are imported from Japan, whereas we estimated that distribution and administration expenses will slightly increase from 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent of sales due to increase in the freight charges due to increase in petroleum prices and appreciation of dollars against Pakistan Rupees.

We have estimated net sales as per the data available from valid source of Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers association (PAMA) for the local manufactured cars while we have estimated the sales for the imported products (APV and Jimny) according to their previously sales.

Cash Cows

The recorded data for the sales of PSMC shows that Mehran, Cultus and Bolan is driving the sales in term of volume, which shows that the demand of low price cars is high from the normal earning people in the Pakistan.Due to suspension of Alto production and discontinuation of Coure (Toyata) sales of Mehran car has increased because people's demand for the 1000cc-1200cc car is fulfilled by Mehran and Cultus Cars.

Current Scenario

We have found that company has started it first month of new CY with better sales, we have analysedthat PSMC have sold 7400 units of vehicles during the Month of January and we assume that this number will continue increase in the coming months due to upcoming General Election in Pakistan and decreasing interest rate in the economy will further generate the demand of new cars.

It is also expected that company has to receive a smart amount of cash in one time in month of March against a property sold previously, which will also boost the EPS for the First quarter of CY13.

Open Trade with India

We believe that ,liberal trade agreement with India will affectthe localautomobile manufactures specially PSMC , if govt allows to import spare partsfrom India then it will decrease cost of manufacturingbecause importingfrom India will be cheaper due to currency and freight charges.But If govt allows to import fully manufactured cars from India then overall local auto industry will face hard time because imported cars from India will be cheaper from Pakistani cars.

Liberal trade policy with India will be favourable for PSMC

But for Pak Suzuki it will be comparatively favourable because PSMC discontinued its production of Atlas cars in Pakistan and moved its production to India since July-12, when Government implemented Euro II standards regulations and Alto was not meeting the requirements.Company is expecting for the liberal trade policy with India so that company can Import Alto cars from India, because Alto was one of the bestselling car in Pakistan.

Valuation

PSMC is yielding CY12 PE of 5x and also probable CY13 PE of 4.2x. We signal BUY in PSMC which looks good among other peers.

scstrade
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on March 20, 2013, 05:04:41 PM
The board of directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is
scheduled to meet on March 21, 2013 to announce the financial result for the year
ended December 31, 2012. We expect the company to earn profit after tax (PAT)
of PKR 1,265mn (EPS: PKR 15.38), which represents a substantial 59% jump over
CY11’s PAT of PKR 794mn (EPS: PKR 10.55). The improvement in company’s
bottomline is expected on account of (volumetric) sales growth, along with multiple
price hikes exercised by the company during the year and, nevertheless to
mention, the support in the sale volume from the Punjab gov’t taxi scheme.
Furthermore, we expect PSMC to announce a final cash dividend of PKR 4/share.

Financial Highlights
PKR mn 4QCY12E 3QCY12A QoQ CY12E CY11A YoY
Net sales 10,473 11,428 -8% 58,373 52,719 11%
Gross profit 270 (49) n.m 2,473 1,869 32%
Gross margins 2.6% -0.4% n.m 4.2% 3.5% 70bps
Sales & admin expenses 259 315 -18% 1,150 1,000 15%
Other income 188 95 99% 569 620 -8%
Finance cost 5 2 132% 13 18 -26%
Profit after tax 89 (253) n.m 1,265 794 59%
EPS (PKR) 1.09 (2.35) 15.38 9.65
Dividend 4.00 0.00 4.00 2.00
Source: Company Accounts & Arif Habib Research

Strong margins and volumetric growth to expand gross profit by 32% YoY
PSMC’s gross profit is expected to rise by 32% YoY to PKR 2.5bn during CY12.
This is expected to be achieved mainly due to support of a 32% YoY growth in
sales volumes to 115k units, which, when coupled with an average 9% price hike
on all its models, is expected to result in a top line expansion of 11% to PKR 58bn.
Prices were increased by the company in CY12, especially in 2HCY12, in order to
offset the increased cost burden of Euro II compliance and PKR depreciation
against JPY. Company’s gross margin is expected to stand at 4.2% in CY12
against 3.5% in CY11, mainly on account of soft steel prices (-5% YoY) and low
fixed cost per unit during 1HCY12 with increase in volume.

Bleak outlook with many question marks
The outlook of the company in CY13 is expected to remain dull. Our assumption is
based on: 1) gov’t behest of banning CNG-fitted vehicle, 2) a one-time gain from
the Punjab gov’t taxi scheme, 3) discontinuation of ever-running model ‘Alto’ with
no replacement of the same, and 4) influx of imported vehicles. Currently
Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) in its meeting with all the stakeholders
of the Auto industry stated that the reduction in the age limit from five to three
years is not justified and, hence, is a violation of the consumer rights. However
clarity would come with the arrival of the interim gov’t and its stance on this policy.
Trade liberalization with India could eventually bring fruits for the company as post
liberalization of trade, the revival of ‘Alto’ is expected by importing parts from India.

Recommendation
Our DCF based Jun-13 target price for PSMC works out to PKR 104.55/share,
which offers a meager upside potential of 2% from last closing price of PKR
103/share. We thus recommend a ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip. The stock is currently
trading at CY13F PE and dividend yield of 7.9x and 2%, respectively.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 04, 2013, 01:27:52 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): TP revised upwards on improving margins

   We have revised upward our TP by 22% to PKR114/sh for Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) particularly on the back of consistent depreciation of JPY against USD and the volumetric rebound leading to considerable improvement in earnings for CY14 onwards (CY14E/15E EPS revised upwards by 2% and 10% to PKR16.8/sh and PKR22/sh respectively)

   The decline in imports will be a complete turnaround strory as the local assemblers will have some room for price increases despite decline in cost factors (depreciating Yen) thus further strengthening the company’s gross margins (margins revised upward by 50bps and 100bps in CY14 and CY15 respectively)

   We expect the volumes to recover partially in 1HCY13 however; a fuller recovery is expected in CY14 onwards where the impact of used cars would eventually die down

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 05, 2013, 12:31:26 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/suzuki-pakistan-plans-to-introduce-new-small-car-cfo-says-1-.html
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Salammembers on April 06, 2013, 01:22:37 AM
last 2 Quarters in negative :dunno:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Salammembers on April 09, 2013, 09:41:41 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/suzuki-pakistan-plans-to-introduce-new-small-car-cfo-says-1-.html
  ouulman bro, kia buy karaay?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 18, 2013, 02:55:24 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/suzuki-pakistan-plans-to-introduce-new-small-car-cfo-says-1-.html

In addition, according to Topline Research, Pak Suzuki is considering to re-launch its old Alto with new features (shaped like the Indian Alto) within 3-6 months.

http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/31:automobile-assembler/3250:auto-industry--a-quick-flashback-and-way-forward/

considering the lack of capex in the previous quarters, its highly likely that new car will be just a slightly modified alto - just like topline says ..

http://www.marutisuzukialto800.com/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 24, 2013, 03:15:12 PM
PSMC 1QCY13 EPS expected at PKR 1.63
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1QCY13
financial results on April 25, 2013. We expect the company to post profit after tax
of PKR 134mn (EPS: PKR 1.63), down 77% YoY, as compared to PKR 589mn
(EPS: PKR 7.15) recorded in the same period last year. This massive decrease in
profitability is mainly attributable to the high base-effect of last year’s volumetric
sales, down 31% YoY. However, on QoQ basis, volumetric sales were massively
up by 45% to 21,104 units, which is expected to support company’s profitability
during the quarter. In addition, price increase in the month of Jan-13 (on average
3.5% on all variants) is expected to improve company’s gross margins in 1QCY13.
At the level of PKR 131/share, our rating on PSMC stands as ‘SELL’ as our Dec-
13 price target stands below the current market price of the company stock.
Financial Highlights
PKR mn 1QCY13E 1QCY12A YoY FY12A FY11A YoY
Net sales 13,495 18,765 -28% 58,531 52,719 11%
Gross profit 438 978 -55% 2,346 1,869 25%
Sales & admin expenses 304 254 20% 1,218 1,000 22%
Other income 96 127 -24% 494 620 -20%
Finance cost 6 4 40% 11 18 -38%
Profit after tax 134 589 -77% 978 794 23%
EPS (PKR) 1.63 7.15 11.88 9.65
Source: Company Accounts & Arif Habib Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 26, 2013, 12:02:04 PM

PSMC reported PAT of PKR362mn (EPS: PKR4.40) in 1QCY13
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) reported PAT of PKR362mn (EPS: PKR4.40) for 1QCY13, down 38% YoY primarily on account of low volumes (down 31% YoY). Recall, 1HCY12 was the period of Punjab Taxi scheme that took the volumes up substantially (30,642 units). Ex-Punjab taxi scheme, the volumes normalized to 21,104 units in 1QCY13 as the competition from imported cars eased off
The result was above ours and consensus expectations
On QoQ basis, the 1QCY13 result depicted a turnaround for the company where its profitability came into green (EPS: PKR4.40/sh) from loss after tax of PKR189mn (LPS: PKR2.41/sh) in 4QCY12 primarily due to improvement in gross margins to 4.7% and pull back in volumes (up 27% QoQ)
The company's sales units rose comprehensively by 27% to 21,104 units in 1QCY13 versus 16,655 units in 4QCY12 on account of the recently imposed restriction on age limit of used cars taking full effect
We intend to revisit our investment case shortly

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on April 28, 2013, 09:56:06 PM
Bilal Moti ka 140 ka target to gaya....its now below 90

Ab target aagaya ya nahin. Bilal moti sirf aik hi hai aur woh ab arif habib main kaam nahin karta. PSMC 140 aagaya. Bilal moti ab tamam kan_aroon koh danda deh ga jo bahut mazak aura rahe thay.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 29, 2013, 07:20:42 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/suzuki-pakistan-plans-to-introduce-new-small-car-cfo-says-1-.html

In addition, according to Topline Research, Pak Suzuki is considering to re-launch its old Alto with new features (shaped like the Indian Alto) within 3-6 months.

http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/31:automobile-assembler/3250:auto-industry--a-quick-flashback-and-way-forward/

considering the lack of capex in the previous quarters, its highly likely that new car will be just a slightly modified alto - just like topline says ..

http://www.marutisuzukialto800.com/

http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/3279:psmc-less-than-stellar-quarter/

PSMC is on the verge of rolling out the new 1,000CC Alto. That model was initially launched in the country back in 2000 and received a roaring response from the market. Based on that experience, the company is likely to enjoy a positive reversal of fortunes as soon as the new model is launched here.

:D after 13 years they will change the shape of the bumper and introduce it as a new model  :laugh:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on May 06, 2013, 01:25:20 PM
PSMC: Positives priced in
Positives overplayed
We initiate coverage on PSMC with DCF based Dec-13 PT of PKR 118/share. At current levels the company trades at an unappealing FY13/14 PER of 8.3x/7.9x compared to last 2 years PER of 8.5x. Gains from weaker Yen would be limited for PSMC due to 1) 70% localization of inputs and 2) weaker PKR against USD. Yen depreciation could unlock upside from our estimates but in the back drop of pricing power attrition after 10% increase in prices since Jun-12, margin accretion is expected to be limited. SELL
Sales expected to rebound after a dull 2HCY12
Going forward we expect sales to rebound with 1) seasonal uptick in sales in 1HCY13, 2) support from rural income after Rabi harvest in April as 14% increase in wheat support prices comes into play, 3) clearing out of the glut of imported cars after reenactment of restrictive import regime for autos in Dec-12.
New variant in the pipeline
Plans for launch of a new variant i.e. Wagon R are in the development stage with viability of the same still being considered. A new variant still remains distant and earliest possible launch would be in CY14.
1QCY13 earnings down 39% YoY
Earnings for 1QCY13 clocked in at PKR 361mn (EPS: 4.4/share), down 39% YoY but a healthy recovery after an abysmal performance in 2HCY12 where PSMC reported LPS of PKR 4.76/share.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on May 16, 2013, 10:28:18 AM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): JPY depreciation to improve outlook considerably

   In the light of steep depreciation of Yen against major currencies, we have revised our CY13E and CY14E earnings for PSMC upwards by 33% and 35% to PKR1,653mn (EPS:PKR20.09/sh) and PKR1,761mn (EPS:PKR22.8/sh) respectively

   The increase in earnings is primarily due to the increase in gross margins by 31% (CY13E average margin at 5.5%). Consequently our TP goes up by 50% to PKR180/sh

   To provide a more comprehensive view on the currency movements and its potential impact, we present a sensitivity analysis of our CY13E/CY14F EPS and TP to different Yen/USD rates to our investors

   We remain optimistic on the volumetric outlook of the company where lesser threat of used cars is expected to put volumes back on track in CY13 (81,904 sales units)

   At our revised TP of PKR180/sh, the scrip offers a total return of 20% from current trading levels advocating a BUY stance
 
bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 22, 2013, 07:13:37 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/552501/pak-suzuki-launches-new-110cc-motorcycle/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on May 30, 2013, 06:02:31 PM
Laoooooo 200+
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Dr. Economist on May 30, 2013, 07:57:18 PM
Laoooooo 200+

 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: drifter on June 03, 2013, 02:22:26 PM
Qadir bhai kab tk time frame hai iss ka?
yeh toh chal hee nea rha
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: drifter on June 05, 2013, 01:39:55 PM
iss koh toh laooooooo
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: drifter on June 06, 2013, 01:44:00 PM
Qadir bhai ap kee call peh 2000 unit utha liye hain iss keh..
per yeh manhus toh hilta hee nea hai...   huhu huhu huhu huhu

dosra ffbl aa geya hai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on June 06, 2013, 05:16:01 PM
Subar kro bhai cap o cap chalayga Insha ALLAH
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: drifter on June 06, 2013, 05:39:07 PM
InshAllah ..... :shoaby: :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Super on June 14, 2013, 01:10:47 PM
Pak suzuki mai entry kis rate pe banti hai?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farrukh Muqeem on June 16, 2013, 01:48:26 PM
PAK SUZUKI DOWNWARD TREND FROM 156.87 IN JUNE 3, TO 143.56 IN JUNE 13.................

WAIT AND SEE POLICY SHOULD BE BEST AT THIS TIME ...............BUT ITS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SOON ....................SENIORSSSS ...YOUR VALUABLE COMMENTS ON IT ?????
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stalker on June 17, 2013, 10:15:59 PM
No yellow cab scene in Punjab Budget..
L lag gaye :(
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: drifter on June 18, 2013, 03:14:52 AM
Ustad jee iss kee performance pakistan kee batting kee tarah hai ..
Becho iss sey  huhu  huhu
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on June 26, 2013, 11:46:24 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/business-and-economy/189:pakistan/1203521:suzuki-launches-latest-heavy-bikes-series/?date=2013-06-26
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on June 26, 2013, 12:06:39 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/business-and-economy/189:pakistan/1203521:suzuki-launches-latest-heavy-bikes-series/?date=2013-06-26
http://epaper.dawn.com/Advt.php?StoryImage=26_06_2013_002_007
http://www.suzukiheavybikes.com.pk/

250cc 675k
intruder 800cc 1.5 million
hayabusa 1300cc 2.4 million only

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on July 08, 2013, 09:24:00 PM
Subar kro bhai cap o cap chalayga Insha ALLAH


First Cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Valueestimator on July 08, 2013, 09:51:12 PM
Aq wat is target
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on July 08, 2013, 10:00:31 PM
Aq wat is target

Initial target 180-185 and medium term above 225
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on July 09, 2013, 09:57:51 AM
Get ready for another rallly. PSMC this quarter EPS will be higher than 9 rupees. Suzuki bane ga naya Toyota haha
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farrukh Muqeem on July 09, 2013, 12:31:51 PM
why PSMC is going down ???
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: babar4289 on July 09, 2013, 08:29:10 PM
wah bilal bhai app kaha hai app ka tu engro mai intezar hai waha bhi kuch roshni dalay  ;)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on July 14, 2013, 02:33:33 PM
All set for 200+ Insha ALLAH
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: waseem_82 on July 15, 2013, 05:44:25 PM
pak suzuki ko q fever agaya hai,yar bhai is ko bhi chalaooooooooooooo


Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on July 15, 2013, 05:54:27 PM
Sabr kro bhai jannnn
Striaght caps wala item hai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: PK on July 15, 2013, 09:24:42 PM
Sabr kro bhai jannnn
Striaght caps wala item hai
:D cap o cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Abdul Qadir on July 24, 2013, 01:29:33 PM
Laooooo straight caps till 200
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalmoti on July 25, 2013, 08:57:09 PM
Volumes decline but profitability up by 49% due to yen factor. Some thing to learn for pakistani manufacturers

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Maruti-Suzuki-Q1-net-up-49-at-Rs-631-6-crore/articleshow/21333244.cms

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 26, 2013, 08:46:46 PM
PSMC: 1HCY13 preview; Lower sales may hamper earnings|SELL

We expect Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) may report a PAT of Rs 676mn
with EPS of Rs.8.21 for 1HCY13, 51% lower than the last year same period Rs
1.37bn PAT and Rs16.64 as EPS. Where in sales may decline by 27% on YoY basis
to Rs.26.53bn for 1HC13 against Rs.36.47bn in same period last year. With a
gross margin of 5% company’s gross profit may also decline on YoY basis,
because we expect company may report 42% lower gross profit of Rs.1.31bn in
1HCY13 against Rs 2.25bn in same period last year.

http://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/PSMC%201HCY13%20preview%20Lower%20sales%20may%20hamper%20earnings.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 29, 2013, 05:23:07 PM
QoQ earnings to shine while YoY to remain dull

We preview PSMC’s 2QCY13 result and expect the company to report a net profit of PKR709mn (EPS PKR8.61), up by 96% QoQ. 1HCY13 net earnings are projected to clock in at PKR1,070mn (EPS 13.0) showing a decline of 22% as compared to CPLY. An unprecedented interim cash dividend of PKR2.5/ share along with the result may be given by the BoD. Despite a slight decline in volumes (4% QoQ), margins are expected to improve in 2q due to weakening of Yen (lagged impact) which is projected to result in gross profit rise of 62%. While one time gain from sales of motorcycle plant land will raise QoQ projected earnings by 96%. Trading at a FY14 P/E of 5.6x, we maintain our “Buy” stance.

Taurus
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: waseem_82 on August 01, 2013, 03:25:29 PM
qadir bhai  is ko chalane ke liaya kon sa wazeefa parhna paray ga,bata do yar

ab to tamam anchors bhi ramzan transmission me mehran bantay hai

ab to bas thak gaye hain


Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 01, 2013, 04:00:21 PM
qadir bhai  is ko chalane ke liaya kon sa wazeefa parhna paray ga,bata do yar

ab to tamam anchors bhi ramzan transmission me mehran bantay hai

ab to bas thak gaye hain

 :laugh:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Koolfire on August 12, 2013, 10:26:01 PM
bm on 19 aug
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/045658-1.gif
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on August 12, 2013, 11:59:32 PM
bm on 19 aug
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/045658-1.gif

hoping for 'cap o cap' till then InshaAllah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 15, 2013, 04:01:10 PM
PSMC: 1HCY13 EPS to clock in at PKR12.72/share
Pak Suzuki motor company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY13 financial results on 19 August 2013. We expect the company to post profit of PKR1.05bn (EPS: PKR12.72/share) for 1HCY13, down 24% YoY.  Earnings for the quarter are expected at PKR686mn (EPS: PKR8.3), down 12% YoY.

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: DEVDAS on August 15, 2013, 05:11:55 PM
Auto Sector: July’13 Sales Volumes

According to latest data released by PAMA, Jul’13 industry volumes (Cars+LCVs) declined by 23%MoM to 10,579 units while a 79%MoM decline was recorded in tractor sales with total volumes of 1,302 units. On a YoY basis however, auto sales were higher by 1.4% primarily driven by HCAR. In our view, the sequential drop in sales volumes may be attributed to the impact of recent FY14 Budget directives e.g. duty reduction on hybrid vehicles and increase in advance tax on registration of new cars. Drilling down, PSMC sold 5,697 units in Jul'13, up by 1.5%YoY but lower by 18%MoM with only the Cultus variant displaying sequential growth. Similarly, INDU's sales of 2,894 units were down by 6.3%YoY/32%MoM. HCAR was the relative contrarian outperformer where although its sales were lower by 15%MoM, YoY growth came in at 18.9%. The latter is largely attributable to sales of new model of Civic (+58%YoY). On the tractors front, 85%MoM and 62%MoM declines were recorded by MTL and AGTL to 724 units and 578 units, respectively, due to the post Budget scenario. These sales figures are lower by 36%YoY and 66%YoY, respectively. From an investment perspective, the listed auto sector has gained 53%CYTD, outperforming the broader market by 13% in the process. That said, awe retain our preference for PSMC (TP: PkR178/share) where upcoming 2QCY13 results may excite considering the company will likely record   one-off gain on sale of land.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 16, 2013, 11:50:32 AM
PSMC: 1HCY13 Result Preview

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY13 result on Monday, Aug 19'13. We expect the company to post NPAT of PkR958mn in 1HCY13 vs. NPAT of PkR1,369mn in 1HCY12, down 30%YoY. This translates into an EPS of PkR11.64 in 1HCY13 vs. EPS of PkR16.64 in 1HCY12. To recall, the company sold 41,326 units in the review period, down by 33%YoY (-ve 14%YoY normalized for the Punjab Taxi Scheme last year and +ve 7%YoY if sales of the now phased-out Alto are excluded as well). In our view, this is largely due to sustained competition from imported used cars. At the same time, we expect gross margins to be at 5.1% in 1HCY13 where gross margins in the same period last year were at 6.2%. In 2QCY13 alone, we expect PSMC's NPAT to clock in at PkR596mn (EPS: PkR7.24) vs. NPAT of PkR362mn (EPS: PkR4.40) in 1QCY13, up 65%QoQ. In this regard, in 2QCY13 the company sold 20,222 units vs. sales of 21,104 units in the previous quarter. However, profitability is likely to be sequentially higher where we have assumed that PSMC will record net gains of PkR274.5mn (EPS impact: PkR3.34/share) which arose consequent to a land sale. The scrip has gained 77%CYTD, thereby outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 37% in the process. That said, we believe upcoming results have the potential to excite where our TP of PkR178/share for PSMC (normalized CY13F P/E: 7.4x) offers 15% upside. Accumulate!

AKD Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on August 16, 2013, 02:19:44 PM
PSMC; One off gain to escalate 1HCY13 earnings!
The Board of Directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is
scheduled to meet on August 19, 2013 to approve the financial results for
1HCY13. We expect the company to post profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 888mn
(EPS: PKR 10.79) in 1HCY13, representing a 35 YoY decline from 1HCY12’s
PAT of PKR 1,369mn (EPS: 16.64). We believe this decrease in the profitability
is primarily due to an estimated 33% YoY drop in the volumetric sales of the
company’s, translated into 27% YoY decline in the top-line to PKR 26.5bn.
On quarterly basis, we expect the company to register 45% QoQ jump in the
profitability to PKR 526mn (EPS: PKR 6.40). This jump in the bottom-line
comprises one-off gain on sale of company’s old Motorcycle plant of PKR
274.5mn (PKR 3.34/share). Gross profit of the Company in 2QCY13 is expected
to be around PKR 701mn, translating into a gross margin of 5.4%, as compared
to 4.7% in the preceding quarter and 7.2% in the corresponding period last year.
Currently we maintain our ‘Sell’ recommendation for the stock.

ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on August 18, 2013, 04:32:36 PM
Strong Buy call for suzuki. earnings 9 seh ooper hain. kal dekhtay hain kiya hota hai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 19, 2013, 05:30:18 PM


(http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 19, 2013, 05:32:10 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643 (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on August 19, 2013, 06:22:00 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643 (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643)

:)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on August 19, 2013, 09:03:52 PM
Strong Buy call for suzuki. earnings 9 seh ooper hain. kal dekhtay hain kiya hota hai

PSMC ka naya target ab 185 hai. Next quarter main core earnings bahut achi hongi aur ab to motor cycle business bhi loss se nikal gaya hai.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 19, 2013, 10:22:39 PM
Strong Buy call for suzuki. earnings 9 seh ooper hain. kal dekhtay hain kiya hota hai

PSMC ka naya target ab 185 hai. Next quarter main core earnings bahut achi hongi aur ab to motor cycle business bhi loss se nikal gaya hai.

nice prediction.   :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: DEVDAS on August 19, 2013, 10:47:05 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643 (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643)

:)

Earning is high due to other income, other wise is still low like if compare with last year half annually result but comparing last QTR is quite good, forecast of future growth can take it high.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on August 19, 2013, 11:24:49 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643 (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=045781&qsid=643)

:)

Earning is high due to other income, other wise is still low like if compare with last year half annually result but comparing last QTR is quite good, forecast of future growth can take it high.

Dont forget last year it sold 5k more cars due to Punjab taxi scheme so earnings are super. One off land gain I agree but now yen impact will be big. EPS 30 tak aa sakti hai or yeh stock easily 6x peh trade ho sakta so around 180-190. End of the year bonus also possible.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 21, 2013, 01:04:50 PM
PSMC: 1HCY13 Result Review
 PSMC posted NPAT of PkR1,156mn (EPS: PkR14.05) in 1HCY13 vs. NPAT of PkR1,369 (EPS: PkR16.64) in 1HCY12, down by 16%YoY. Encouragingly, 2QCY13 profitability surged 120%QoQ to PkR795mn (EPS: PkR9.65), the highest quarterly profit in 6yrs. PSMC's 2QCY13 earnings were higher than our forecast of PkR596mn (EPS: PkR7.24), where the positive earnings surprise was due to higher than expected gross margins and a lower effective tax rate. Thanks to the quantitative easing in Japan, the Pak Rupee actually appreciated by 6.1% in 2QCY13 against the JPY, driving GMs to 7.0% in 2QCY13 from 4.7% in 1QCY13.
Key highlights of the 2QCY13 results were:
The company has booked profit from sale of land in 'other income' to the tune of PkR274.5mn
Gross margins increased by 230bps QoQ to 7.0% in 2QCY13
Effective tax rate clocked in at 13% in 2QCY13
Financial charges declined by 55%QoQ to PkR16.12mn in 2QCY13.
PkR has continued to strengthen against the JPY (+2% in 3QCY13TD) which should continue to support robust margins in 2HCY13. PSMC is trading at CY13F P/E of 6.3x and offers 17% upside to our target price of PkR178/share. Accumulate.

AKD
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 21, 2013, 03:08:05 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/3602:psmc-getting-back-on-the-road/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on August 21, 2013, 11:03:10 PM
it was very strong today. also remember autos will benefit a lot. some new schemes maybe announced soon.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 05, 2013, 05:08:59 PM
The new Government in Japan is following policy
of weaker Japanese Yen against US Dollar. This is
yielding favourable exchange rate of Japanese Yen.
However the impact of weaker Yen could not be fully
realized so far because Company had old inventory
and carried over foreign exchange contracts. We
had stated in our last reports that impact of weaker
Yen would be reflected in third quarter onward. We
apprehend that favourable impact of Yen would be
diluted by depreciating Pak Rupee.

half year 2013 report (http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Suzuki_2013_Half_Yearly.pdf)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 05, 2013, 05:17:13 PM
capex of 976 million and another 530 million committed for.

new  car  by end of year ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on September 12, 2013, 11:49:57 AM
any update regarding PSMC?

been holding since result.... looked promising. thoda bore kardiya hay...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 12, 2013, 12:09:45 PM
any update regarding PSMC?

been holding since result.... looked promising. thoda bore kardiya hay...


i thinkn hold it
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 13, 2013, 09:56:17 PM
CY13 earnings to remain robust!
PSMC reported 1HCY13 PAT of PKR1.2bn (EPS PKR: 14.05) showing a decline
of 16% YoY, due to decline in volumetric sales (absence of Punjab taxi
scheme & discontinuation of Alto). However on a QoQ basis, 2q earnings
showed a remarkable growth of 120% due to Yen weakening, one off land
sale gain & lower tax rate booked by the company.
Going forward in 2HCY13, while volumes will remain subdued, we are foreseeing
earnings to remain robust due to improvement in gross margins.
Since Yen deterioration impact comes with a lag of 6 months and steel
prices have also remained subdued, we reiterate our stance of 130% earnings
growth in CY13. Trading at CY13 P/E of 5.2x, we maintain our “Buy”
stance.

Margins augmentation & one off gain boosted QoQ earnings!
QoQ decline of 4% in volumetric sales has been witnessed in 2QCY13, with major decrease
observed in S. Bolan, Cultus, Liana & Swift by 6% to 21%. S. Ravi sales on the
other hand increased by 8% QoQ. The real highlight of 2q was gross margins augmentation
from 4.7% to 7.0% which was due to lagged impact of Yen weakening and full
quarter impact of last price raise (done in Jan 2013). In addition to above, the company
has recorded one?off gain of PKR274mn in 2QCY13 against the sale of old motorcycle
plant which further boosted the earnings by PKR3.33/share. The above factors
have resulted in QoQ earnings rising by 120%. YoY earnings during 1HCY13
dipped by 16%, due to higher volumetric base effect (absence of Punjab Taxi scheme
& discontinuation of Alto).

Future outlookGoing forward in 2HCY13, even though volumes will remain subdued, we are foreseeing
earnings to remain robust due to improvement in gross margins. Since Yen deterioration
impact comes with a lag of 6 months and steel prices have also remained August volumetric data), we project 3QCY13 EPS to clock in around PKR8?10/share.
The recent uptick in Yen will affect PSMC earnings in CY14 as around 50% of its purchases
are Yen based and the company will have to pass on the cost hike in order to maintain its
margins. PSMC is planning to introduce a new car which is rumored to be Suzuki Wagon R
1.0, later this year with a more efficient 3?cylinder 998 cc K10B engine which looks like an
ideal replacement of Suzuki Alto

TAURUS SECURITIES
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 24, 2013, 04:07:53 PM
???? We have revised our CY13E and CY14E earnings for PSMC upwards by 14% and 4% to
PKR1,907mn (EPS:PKR23.2/sh) and PKR1,703mn (EPS:PKR20.7/sh) respectively
factoring in higher than expected impact of yen deprecation against USD
???? Subsequently, our margins assumption has increased to 5.9% from previous estimates
of 5.9% for CY13
???? Thus, our TP goes up by 9% to PKR197/sh presenting an upside of 36% from current
trading levels
???? We expect the volumes on a full year (2013) basis to decline by 8.4% to 79,004 units
(high base effect; outlier demand from Punjab taxi scheme in CY12) compared to
86,254 units sold in 2012
We have revised our CY13E and CY14E earnings for PSMC upwards by 14% and 4% to
PKR1,907mn (EPS:PKR23.2/sh) and PKR1,703mn (EPS:PKR20.7/sh) respectively factoring in
higher than expected impact of yen deprecation against USD. Subsequently, our margins
assumption has increased to 5.9% from previous estimates of 5.5% for CY13.
Consequently our TP goes up by 9% to PKR197/sh presenting an upside of 36% from
current trading levels. Furthermore, we expect the company to payout PKR4/sh as
dividends in CY13 maintaining its historic payout ratio of 18%.
Gross margin appreciation; thanks to Yen Depreciation
The PKR/Yen on an average declined by 6%QoQ in 2QCY13 and 12% in the preceding
quarter. This translated into lower costs (down 4.4% QoQ) and margin enhancement of
2.28% QoQ. It is pertinent to note that the impact of exchange rate differential on the
bottom?line is witnessed after a lag due to inventory hold?up of ~2 months. Thus, the
margin improvement in 2QCY13 was a result of partial realization of preceding 12%
depreciation in 1Q2013.
Another factor that plays an essential role in the determination of the margin outlook and
thus needs to be keenly followed is the product mix of the company. According to our
estimates Mehran, Bolan and Ravi attracts the highest margin among the products offered
due to company’s monopolistic position in the said segments giving it the ability to
maintain/increase prices compared to other products.
After incorporating all these factors, we expect margins to average at 5.9% and 5.8% in
2013 and 2014 respectively compared to 5.86% realized in 1H2013 only. Moreover,
assuming stable PKR/JPY parity for the next half and deferred impact of depreciation in
2Q2013, we believe gross margins for 2H2013 to average at 5.99%.
Volumes to Kick Off
After witnessing a steep decline in volumes in 1HCY13, we expect PSMC’s volume to
recover as the effect of flood (delay in harvest season) and budgetary measures (increase
in GST and registration charges) are expected to normalize. In addition to it, depleting
inventory of imported used cars is further going to support volumetric outlook.
To mention, during the 1H2013, the volumes have declined by 33%YoY to 41,326 units
when compared to 61,439 units sold in same period last year. Following that, we expect
the volumes on a full year (2013) basis to decline by 8.4% to 79,004 units (high base
effect; outlier demand from Punjab taxi scheme in CY12) compared to 86,254 units sold in
2012.
Going forward, with no abrupt change in import car policy and better farm income, we
have assumed PSMC’s volumes to experience a CAGR growth of 4.5% in next three years.
Trade with India: New Growth Avenue
According to new reports, the company is in negotiations with the government to import
CKD kits of Alto from India, as Suzuki Japan has discontinued manufacturing of the said
model. PSMC requested the permit creating a special case for low price vehicles. PSMC .if
granted the permit would benefit significantly from the deal, as the cost of material
available from India would be lower besides, the proximity of India with Pakistan in terms
distance would help decrease freight cost reducing PSMC’s exposure to rapidly
appreciating USD. Furthermore, Maruti Suzuki and Indian auto venders are ready for
technology transfer to result in increased efficiency and lower reliance of Pak Suzuki on
foreign suppliers. Having said, the negotiations are still underway subject to a lot of
regulatory approvals.
Investment Outlook:
At our revised TP of PKR197/sh, the scrip offers a total return of 39% from current trading
levels. The stock currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 6.2x. Sustainable growth in
earnings as a result of margin appreciation justifies our BUY stance on the stock.

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on September 24, 2013, 07:29:03 PM
PSMC ko approval mil gaya hai india seh parts order karnay ka. After Nawaz meeting with Manmahon official annoucement hoga aur Oct kay mid say imports start ho jain gay.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 25, 2013, 11:12:03 AM
PSMC: Upgrade to Buy on margin improvement ahead

We upgrade PSMC from Neutral to Buy with a new PO of PRs172 (up 11%), supported by (1) higher gross margin at 5-7% in 2013E-15E compared to an average of 2.7% in last 5-years & (2) revised macro assumptions incl. interest rate hike.
 
In addition, at current levels, valuations appear attractive with 2014E P/E at 5.5x, with the stock offering upside of 19% to our PO.
 
We roll out our revised earnings deck, with EPS of PRs20.5/26.2 (+1.6%/+4.3%) for 2013E/14E driven by (1) impact of YTD favorable exchange rate (PKR/JPY) to fully reflect in 2H13E and 2014E and (2) sales volume est. revised by +1%/-2.4% respectively.
 
Delayed price hike (we expect next price hike in Jan) in case of further weakening of PKR/JPY seen of late and lower than anticipated sales growth (-20%/3.7% YoY in 2013E/14E) are the key risks to our estimates. 

Kasb
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 02, 2013, 08:08:10 AM
Suzuki increases vehicles’ prices by up to Rs 20,000/unit (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\10\02\story_2-10-2013_pg5_9)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on October 02, 2013, 08:14:37 PM
PSMC September car sales of 6300 cars. Numbers will be out in 5 more days. Motorcycle sale also good. lao PSMC
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 02, 2013, 09:41:58 PM
PSMC September car sales of 6300 cars. Numbers will be out in 5 more days. Motorcycle sale also good. lao PSMC

is it from any reliable source?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on October 02, 2013, 10:33:35 PM
Speak to me when the real numbers come you will know it.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 02, 2013, 10:59:32 PM
Speak to me when the real numbers come you will know it.

OK Bro  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on October 04, 2013, 07:32:15 PM
Seniors, plz comment on buying of this share at 120 level, will it be safe or should i wait till 100
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 04, 2013, 07:56:51 PM
Seniors, plz comment on buying of this share at 120 level, will it be safe or should i wait till 100
i have it at 133

 :fingerscrossed1:

 will add at lower prices if possible
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on October 04, 2013, 08:45:14 PM
Good time to accumulate as upside will be steep. It is falling on very low volumes and seems someone is just playing with it.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ayubkhuhro on October 12, 2013, 09:49:31 AM
PSMC September car sales of 6300 cars. Numbers will be out in 5 more days. Motorcycle sale also good. lao PSMC

PSMC sold 6287 cars as per PAMA. I told you 7 days in advance. Ab lao PSMC 150.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: apple on October 12, 2013, 02:02:17 PM
good work, brother.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 12, 2013, 02:31:37 PM
PSMC September car sales of 6300 cars. Numbers will be out in 5 more days. Motorcycle sale also good. lao PSMC

PSMC sold 6287 cars as per PAMA. I told you 7 days in advance. Ab lao PSMC 150.

5% increase in sales on month basis.and share price drecreased 10%
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 23, 2013, 01:57:31 PM
Board Meetings (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=047945&qsid=547)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 29, 2013, 12:17:51 PM

Result Preview

PSMC: 9MCY13 EPS expected to rise 27% YoY
Result expectation

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY13 financial results tomorrow. We expect the company to post EPS of PKR18.11 for 9MCY13, up 27% YoY. EPS for 3QCY13 is expected at PKR4.06 compared to a loss of PKR2.35 in the same period last year. Note that recurring earnings for 9MCY13 have posted growth of 6%. As the company booked gains on sale of property in 1HCY13.
Margins to drive YoY bottom-line accretion
Gross Margin for the quarter is expected to clock in at 5.84%, up 627bps compared to the same period last year. Note that gross margins in 3QCY12 entered red due to the company’s inability to pass on the complete price of EURO-2 compliance to the consumers. Margins for 9MCY13 are expected at 5.9%, up by 126bps YoY. The lagged impact of a weak Yen in 1HCY13 would contribute to the buoyancy in gross margins where Yen lost 10% of its value against PKR in 1HCY13.
Better cash reserves to augment other Income
We expect other income for the quarter to clock in at PKR159mn (PKR1.9/sh) up 68% YoY on the back of higher cash reserves compared to the same period last year.
Upgrade to BUY
PSMC has underperformed KSE100 index by 22% since Jul-13, which has jacked up expected return. At last closing PSMC offers an upside of 20% to our Jun-14 PT of PKR147/sh along with a dividend yield of 3.3% and trades at attractive P/E multiple of 5.1x.  However, we would like to highlight that the impact of a resurgent Yen, which has gained 8% FY to date in the back drop of limited pricing power could dent gross margins going forward. BUY

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 29, 2013, 12:58:22 PM
AKD Daily, Oct 29, 2013

PSMC: 9MCY13 Result Preview
Pak Suzuki Motor (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY13 result tomorrow. We expect the company to post NPAT of PkR1,568mn (EPS: PkR19.05) in 9MCY13 vs. NPAT of PkR1,176mn (EPS: PkR14.29) in 9MCY12 i.e. growth of 33%YoY. Overall sales volumes of the company came in at 59,292 units in 9MCY13 which were 25%YoY lower than the volumes recorded in 9MCY12. However, this should be countered by GMs of 6.4% in 9MCY13 vs. GMs of 4.6% in 9MCY12 going by 12% appreciation of the PkR vs. the JPY over the last year. In 3QCY13 alone, we expect PSMC's NPAT to clock in at PkR412mn (EPS: PkR5.00) vs. NPAT of PkR795mn (EPS: PkR9.65) in 2QCY13 (normalized EPS: PkR6.31 in 2QCY13 ex-sale of land). This translates into a decline of 48%QoQ (normalized earnings expected to down by 21%QoQ) on account of lower sales volumes. At current levels, our target price of PkR178/share implies a Buy stance, underpinned by an undemanding CY14F P/E of 5.6x..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 29, 2013, 04:48:32 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 9M2013 Earnings Preview
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to declare its 9M2013 results on Oct30, 2013

We estimate the company to post PAT of PKR1,595mn (EPS: PKR19.38/sh) in 9M2013 compared to PAT of PKR1176mn (EPS: PKR14.29/sh) posted same period last year depicting a tremendous growth of 36% YoY

On QoQ basis, the earnings will show a decline of 45% in 3Q2013 for PSMC from PKR9.65/sh to PKR5.3/sh. Ex-land sales QoQ (2Q2013) earnings are to decline by 18.2% QoQ

The margins of the company are expected to remain flattish at 7.25% for the quarter, with marginal growth of 22bps

At our revised TP of PKR197/sh, we currently have a BUY stance on the stock providing a dividend yield of 3%

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 29, 2013, 08:58:23 PM
Impressive results expected for 3q due to higher margins!

We preview PSMC’s 3QCY13 result and expect the company to report a net profit of PKR663mn (EPS PKR8.05), down by 17% QoQ. Dip in QoQ earnings will be witnessed due to higher corporate tax rate versus turnover tax, while core earnings are expected to improve due to Yen weakening. 9MCY13 net earnings are projected to clock in at PKR1,819mn (EPS 22.11) showing a robust growth of 55% as compared to CPLY.

Despite a decline in volumes (11% QoQ), margins are expected to improve in 3q due to weakening of Yen (4QCY12 vs 1QCY13 on account of foreign exchange contracts) and the same is projected to result in gross profit rising by 51%. On a YoY basis, 9MCY13 earnings are projected to augment despite dip in volumes (58% YoY) due to improvement in margins YoY owing to weakening of Yen & absence of Punjab Taxi scheme as the same have been delivered at a lower price of CY11.

Considering the current trend in volumetric growth, we are foreseeing better profitability in CY13 for PSMC due to weakening of Yen till 2QCY13 (full impact to be reflected in 2HCY13 results), subdued global steel prices (offset by devaluation of Pak Rupee). Auto manufacturers are gradually raising their prices to counter the rise in inflation and PKR devaluation and the same was witnessed as PSMC has raised its prices by around PKR10,000 from October 01, 2013 to counter the rise in inflation & devaluation of PKR against Yen & US$. Trading at a CY13 P/E of 4.4x, we maintain our “Buy” stance.

Taurus
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2013, 10:42:17 AM
Financial Results (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=048411&pagesize=1&pageno=1)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 30, 2013, 10:45:21 AM
Financial Results (http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=048411&pagesize=1&pageno=1)

below expectations  :(
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sAr on October 30, 2013, 11:15:41 AM
Below Consensus  huhu
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2013, 11:40:37 AM
sell on strength
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2013, 12:17:18 PM
AKD Research - Off the Analyst's Desk October 30, 2013
______________________________________________
PSMC: 9MCY13 Result Review (Inline)


PSMC announced its 9MCY13 results earlier today where the company reported earnings of PkR1,528mn (EPS: PkR18.56), up by 29%YoY vs. 9MCY12 earnings of PkR1,176mn (EPS: PkR14.29). However, this was slightly lower than our forecasted 9MCY13 earnings of PkR1,568mn (EPS: PkR19.05).
In 3QCY13 the company announced NPAT of PkR371mn (EPS: PkR4.51), lower by 53%QoQ compared to 2QCY13 NPAT of PkR795mn (EPS: PkR9.65; ex-sale of land: PkR6.31). On a normalized basis, this translates into a decline of 29%QoQ on lower sales.
At current levels, PSMC trades at a CY14F P/E of 5.6x where our target price of PkR178/share implies a Buy stance. That said, we will look to revisit our investment case post release of detailed 9MCY13 accounts.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2013, 01:19:53 PM
PSMC reports EPS of PKR4.5 for 3Q2013

 

          For 9MCY12 the earnings sum up to PKR18.5/sh from PKR14.29/sh in 9M2012, up by a substantial 34%. Ex- land sales, the earnings jumped by 11% to PKR15.85/sh. The uptick in margins by 170bps to 6.3% on account of lowering cost pressures remains the prime reason for growth in the bottomline

 

          For 3Q2013, the company reported PAT of PKR371mn (EPS: PKR4.5) for 3Q2013 versus PKR794mn (EPS: 9.65) in 2Q2013. The profits went down due to revenues slippage by 9% QoQ to PKR12,068mn as volumes declined by 11%QoQ. Gross margins clocked in at 7.37% in line with our expectation of 7.25% as a result of yen depreciation (2Q2013) being realized in 3Q2013

 

          On the volumetric front, PSMC sold 59,292 cars in 9M2013 as compared to 69,589 in the same period last year, down by 14% YoY

 

          The deviation from our expectation was a result of higher than expected tax expense of PKR191mn (expected PKR140mn) recorded by the company

 

          At our target price of PKR197/sh, we have a ‘BUY’ stance on the stock providing total return of 64%

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 30, 2013, 02:02:09 PM
PSMC reports EPS of PKR4.5 for 3Q2013

 

          For 9MCY12 the earnings sum up to PKR18.5/sh from PKR14.29/sh in 9M2012, up by a substantial 34%. Ex- land sales, the earnings jumped by 11% to PKR15.85/sh. The uptick in margins by 170bps to 6.3% on account of lowering cost pressures remains the prime reason for growth in the bottomline

 

          For 3Q2013, the company reported PAT of PKR371mn (EPS: PKR4.5) for 3Q2013 versus PKR794mn (EPS: 9.65) in 2Q2013. The profits went down due to revenues slippage by 9% QoQ to PKR12,068mn as volumes declined by 11%QoQ. Gross margins clocked in at 7.37% in line with our expectation of 7.25% as a result of yen depreciation (2Q2013) being realized in 3Q2013

 

          On the volumetric front, PSMC sold 59,292 cars in 9M2013 as compared to 69,589 in the same period last year, down by 14% YoY

 

          The deviation from our expectation was a result of higher than expected tax expense of PKR191mn (expected PKR140mn) recorded by the company

 

          At our target price of PKR197/sh, we have a ‘BUY’ stance on the stock providing total return of 64%

BMA

ho hi na jae 197 ka
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2013, 06:22:35 PM
Pak Suzuki Motors Company records EPS of PkR18.56/share in 9MCY13

PSMC reported consolidated 9MCY13 net earnings of PKR1,528mn (EPS: PKR18.56), depicting a strong growth of 30% as compared to PKR1,176mn (EPS: PKR14.29) in the CPLY despite decline in volumetric sales. On the other hand, 3QCY13 witnessed a decline in earnings to PKR371mn (EPS:4.51) as compared to normalized earnings of PKR519mn (EPS: PKR6.31) in 2QCY13 (ex-sale of land) due to dip in volumes (11% QoQ). While, we noticed a slight improvement in gross margins.

9MCY13 results showed sizeable improvement in profitability despite dip in volumes (58% YoY) due to frequent price increases made by the company in CY12 (impact now visible) to compensate Yen appreciation & absence of Punjab Taxi scheme which were delivered at a lower price of CY11.

With modest recovery in volumetric sales expected in coming months and the lagged impact of weaker Yen yet to reflect in the financials and thus we see better profitability in CY13 for PSMC. Also subdued global steel prices (offset by devaluation of Pak Rupee) bodes well for the company.

Taurus Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2013, 06:23:25 PM
PSMC (Pak Suzuki Motors Company Ltd.) posted an EPS of PkR18.56/share in 9M2013 as against PkR14.29/share in the same period last year, up by healthy 30%.

Despite of reduced topline, improved earnings came from better gross margins. Company’s gross margins rose by 100bps to 6% in 9MCY13 on account of increased car prices and efficient production.

On the volume front, the company’s sales for 9M2013 were recorded at 59,279 units against 79,098 units in same period last year, down 25% mainly due to influx of imported vehicles.

Support to bottomline also came from i) 56% rise in the other income to PkR656mn and ii) lower effective tax rate (18% in 9M2013 vs. 27% in 9M2012).

As compared to previous quarter, it is a turnaround in profitability as the company posted a loss of PkR2.35/share in 3QCY12.

Shajar Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 31, 2013, 08:24:26 AM
Pak Suzuki posts lower than expected results

 Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) announced its financial results for the nine month period ending September 30 2013, posting an after-tax profit of Rs14.8billion, up 8% from Rs13.7 billion last year, resulting in total earnings per share of Rs11.71 for the nine month period compared with Rs10.84 last year.
The company announced a cash dividend of Rs4.1 per share for the last quarter, bringing the total payout for the nine month period to Rs11.35.
Net sales for the nine month period were at Rs52.5 billion, up 5% from Rs50 billion last year. Sales were pushed along by an 11% increase in urea offtakes to 1.79 million tonnes year on year for the nine month period, and a 8% year on year increase in urea prices, despite a 2% drop in offtakes on a quarter on quarter basis, according to Global Securities Pakistan.
Urea demand for the nine month period remained upbeat on expectations of higher prices post gas-price rationalisation which also kept prices up.
The company also witnessed a 28% fall in finance cost down to Rs584 million for the nine month period, from Rs816 million in the previous year.
Other income for the company increased by 21% from Rs2.8 billion last year to Rs3.4 billion this year, mainly due to dividend payout from its subsidiaries. FFC received dividend payments from Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) and Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL), two subsidiaries of the Fauji group, in the last quarter. FFBL has also announced a dividend payout this quarter. However, FCCL has not announced any dividend, which will show in FFC’s financial results for the fourth quarter.
The company’s results were mostly in line with investors expectations, with little to surprise anyone aside from the higher dividend payout. The biggest source of concern for the company at the moment is the impending gas price rationalisation which will invariably push costs and retail prices up. However the fertiliser industry as a whole is limited in its ability to pass on price to consumers, as it has to sell below the international price.
Coupled with gas shortages, investors have been expecting price hikes for quite a while, which has resulted in growth offtakes as buyers stock up on fertiliser at the current price. To be able to maintain profit rates, the fertiliser industry has been urged to improve efficiencies, which may be linked to gas allocation in the future.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 31st, 2013.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 31, 2013, 08:31:10 AM
Pak Suzukis quarterly result announcement has fallen in line with the overall trend of the domestic auto industry. The company posted earnings growth on the back of improved margins, despite freefalling sales.

For the nine-month period ending September, the top line fell by nearly 19 percent, compared to the same period of last year, to Rs38.9 billion. Net sales in the third quarter, however, posted an improvement of 5.6 percent, compared to the dismal performance posted in the same period of the previous year.

Volumes saw a sweeping decline of 25 percent, falling from 79,098 cars in the nine-month period of last year to 59,562 cars this year. The phasing out of Suzuki Alto, which sold more than 9,500 units last year, coupled with a 35 percent decline in the sale of Suzuki Bolan, rubbed salt in Suzukis wounds.

Performance of other variants was also dismal, with Swift and Mehran sales falling by 1,326 and 714 units, respectively. 1,000cc Cultus and motorcycle sales were the only two segments to post volumetric growth, albeit nominal.

Fortunately for Suzukis investors, a freefall in volumes did not keep the company from staging a turnaround in financial performance. While turnover declined, an even greater fall in cost of sales helped gross margin inch forward by 173 bps to 6.3 percent, allowing gross profit to grow by 12 percent. According to market analysts, cost of sales declined on the back of 13 percent year-on-year depreciation of Yen against the local currency.

The decline in volume (and hence in cost of sales) meant fixed costs such as distribution and administrative expenses increased as a percentage of total sales, but, were partly offset by a jump in other operating income. This allowed operating margin to jump from 3.4 to 4.9 percent, a growth of 156 percentage points.

Finance cost remained at negligible levels of Rs52 million, but grew for the nine-month period by nearly six times, compared to 9M CY12. A change in taxation rules, from 0.5 percent of total turnover to corporate tax, slightly offset the gains from improved operating margin. Net margin, hence, improved by 147 bps, with net income clocking in at Rs1.58 billion.

The companys performance heavily relies on the economy segment of 800cc-1,000cc. Exogenous factors such as 100 bps jump in GST, high inflation, decline in consumer auto-finance as well as high price sensitivity of the target market has contributed to lower volumes for the company.

An announcement of auto-policy review by the new government has rekindled hopes among some auto players, given the business-friendly image of the ruling party. However, sources warn that such hopes may come to naught as review board is headed by Khwaja Asif, one of the most vocal critics of local assemblers for their "low quality, over-pricing, and failure to complete localisation."

Given the uncertain regulatory and economic environment, it is unlikely for PSMC (and the auto sector in general) to recover sales in the near future.

==================================================================
PAK SUZUKI MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED
==================================================================
Rs (mn)                          9MCY13     chg    3QCY13      chg
==================================================================
Turnover-net                     38,949    -19%    12,069       6%
Cost of sales                   (36,482)   -20%   (11,179)     -3%
Gross profit                      2,467     12%       890   -1905%
Distribution cost                  (370)    46%      (129)     27%
Administrative expenses            (697)     9%      (256)     20%
Other operating income              665     56%       101       7%
Operating profit                  1,926     19%       564    -324%
Profit/(loss) before taxation     1,873     16%       563    -322%
Taxation                           (345)   -20%      (191)   -419%
Profit/(loss) after taxation      1,528     30%       371    -292%
EPS (Rs)                          18.56              4.51
------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: KSE notice
==================================================================
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 31, 2013, 10:09:07 AM
An announcement of auto-policy review by the new government has rekindled hopes among some auto players, given the business-friendly image of the ruling party. However, sources warn that such hopes may come to naught as review board is headed by Khwaja Asif, one of the most vocal critics of local assemblers for their "low quality, over-pricing, and failure to complete localisation."


he will shut up after a few fortuners and vigos are sent his way.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 05, 2013, 04:54:37 PM

Result Review
 
PSMC: 9MCY13 earnings up 30% YoY
Result announcement
Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) recently announced its earnings for 9MCY13. EPS for the period clocked in at PKR18.56 up 30% YoY. EPS for the quarter clocked in at PKR4.51 compared to a loss of PKR2.35 in the same period last year.
Margins remain buoyant
Gross Margins for 3QCY13 clocked in at 7.36% 779bps higher compared to the same period last year, aided by 3% decline in JPY against PKR FY to date. Note that JPY lost 11% against PKR in 1HCY13 after which it gained 8% against PKR due to PKR’s weakness vis-à-vis the USD. Lower than estimated margin attrition is attributed to a high quantum of inventories from the last quarter. Going forward we estimate that PKR’s weakness against major currencies would have a bearing on margins. Though, a higher quantum of inventories from the preceding quarter would cushion margin attrition in 4QCY13.
Investment case
We have slightly tweaked our estimates for EPS and DPS for CY13 accordingly revising up our EPS estimates by 3-4% and increasing our DPS expectation to PKR4.5 from PKR4.0. At last closing, the stock offers an upside of 21% along with a dividend yield of 3.7%, cumulatively offering a total shareholder return of 24.5%. At current levels the stock is trading at CY13 PE of 5.4x. Note that the upcoming AIDP (Auto Industry Development Policy) poses risks to our estimates where duties on CBU and CKD units may be altered and revision in age limit of used cars could not be ruled out. BUY!

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 06, 2013, 11:44:38 PM
PSMC September car sales of 6300 cars. Numbers will be out in 5 more days. Motorcycle sale also good. lao PSMC

PSMC sold 6287 cars as per PAMA. I told you 7 days in advance. Ab lao PSMC 150.

You were spot on last month,any idea about oct?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: umair vohra on November 11, 2013, 12:30:26 PM
KAB LAOO HOGA IS KA  :confused1: :confused1: :confused1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 11, 2013, 12:35:49 PM
KAB LAOO HOGA IS KA  :confused1: :confused1: :confused1:

aisay scrips year me one time he LAOO hotay hen.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: umair vohra on November 11, 2013, 01:10:25 PM
KAB LAOO HOGA IS KA  :confused1: :confused1: :confused1:

aisay scrips year me one time he LAOO hotay hen.

haan bahi one time laoo hoti or baki time jahooo hoti hai haha
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 26, 2013, 01:05:37 PM
Margins improve despite lower volumes QoQ & YoY!

PSMC reported 9MCY13 net earnings of PKR1,528mn (EPS: PKR18.56), depicting a strong growth of 30% as compared to PKR1,176mn (EPS: PKR14.29) in the CPLY despite decline in  volumetric sales. While, an improvement in gross margins from 4.6% to 6.3% was witnessed in the 9MCY13 results. However, 3QCY13 witnessed a decline in earnings to PKR371mn (EPS:4.51) as compared to normalized earnings of PKR519mn (EPS: PKR6.31) in 2QCY13 (ex-sale of land) due to dip in volumes (11% QoQ).
Although volumes dipped QoQ, but as the impact of weaker Yen has been started after old inventory finished as well as carried over foreign exchange contracts and thus resulted in gross margins improvement in 3QCY13. Considering the present trend of Yen & USD appreciation versus PKR, the company may have to raise prices further in CY14 if it is to maintain its current lofty high margins. But a further price rise will not bode well for the volumes going forward.
At current price, we maintain our Buy stance.

Taurus Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: asim.786 on December 02, 2013, 12:22:37 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/639665/carmakers-eye-a-return-to-iranian-market/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on December 12, 2013, 11:56:42 AM
http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS12-12-13.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on December 18, 2013, 05:23:54 PM


We revise our target price for PSMC to PKR177/sh down 10% from our previous estimate of PKR197/sh.

The revision is caused by the change in the risk free rate in valuation from discount rate (10.5%) to 10yr PIB (being currently at 13%).

Yet another streak of rapid JPY depreciation against USD and PKR in 4QCY13TD by 5%QoQ and 2.6%QoQ respectively (opening, closing rate) despite PKR/USD value erosion.

We have revised our assumption of risk free rate in valuation from discount rate (10.5%) to 10yr PIB (being currently at 13%). We also take this opportunity to rollover our financial model for PSMC. Resultantly, our target price now stands at PKR177/sh down by 10% from our previous estimates of PKR197/sh. While, our earnings assumption remain unchanged at PKR20.8/sh in CY14.

BMA Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on January 04, 2014, 11:41:13 PM
Pak Suzuki choosing to ride on margins

More costly (http://tribune.com.pk/story/654543/more-costly-pak-suzuki-choosing-to-ride-on-margins/)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 08, 2014, 07:17:11 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/business-a-finance/industries-a-sectors/156983-maruti-halts-indian-car-that-led-to-road-revolution.html

ab yahan bhi mehran  khatam kardu ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on February 21, 2014, 09:51:21 PM
anyone holding/covering this share???, (A.Q bhi was covering it but he is not available now in this forum)
plz comment about its short and long term TP, should i hold it till result or not, i bought it at 144
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on February 25, 2014, 06:49:02 PM
PSMC: CY13 Result Preview

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its CY13 financial result on Mar 5’14. We expect the company to post NPAT of PkR1,853mn (EPS: PkR22.52) in CY13 versus NPAT of PkR978mn (EPS: PkR11.88) in CY12, a stellar growth of 89%YoY. Alongside the result, we expect a dividend announcement of PkR4.5/share. We cut down our CY13 NPAT estimate from our previous projections due to lower than estimated sales volumes of 76,818 units in CY13 even as GP margins are seen at  6.3% following the gains in PkR/JPY parity and increase in average unit prices (AUP). On a sequential basis, we expect 4QCY13 NPAT of PkR325mn (EPS: PkR3.95) versus 3QCY13 NPAT of PkR371mn (EPS: PkR4.51), a decline of 12.5%QoQ with recorded 2.4% decline in sales volumes and estimated GP margins of 6% in 4QCY13. At current levels, we have an Accumulate stance on the scrip with target price of PkR173/share.

AKD
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on February 28, 2014, 04:20:30 AM
Margins to improve in 4q despite lower volumes QoQ!

We preview 4QCY13 result of PSMC and forecast the company to report net profit of PKR702mn (EPS PKR8.52, up by 89% QoQ). Gross profit is estimated at PKR1,438mn (up by 62% QoQ) despite the dip in volumes due to price hike in October along with weaker Yen impact. Cumulative CY13 net earnings are projected to clock in at PKR2,229mn (EPS 27.09 inclusive of 3.34/share from sale of land) as compared to net earnings of PKR978mn (EPS PKR11.88) in the CPLY, thus showing a sizeable improvement in profitability of 128% despite dip in volumes (approx. 20% YoY) due to frequent price hikes made by the company between October 2012 to 2013 along with weaker Yen impact which is visible since 3QCY13. We are also anticipating an interim cash payout of PKR5/share with the yearly results.

We maintain our Buy stance on the scrip after considering the volumetric growth of 20% in January as compared to average of 1HFY14 numbers (considering new year phenomenon as well as improvement in economic activity), stable currency movement trend versus PKR. On the other hand, we await any positive development from government side for the implementation of ADIP in order to support local auto industry. At current price, PSMC is trading at CY14E PE of 6.2x and offers dividend yield of 3.2.

taurus
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on February 28, 2014, 06:58:47 PM
PSMC: FY13 EPS at PKR22.95; DPS, PKR4.50
 

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. (PSMC) is all set to announce its FY13 financial result on March 05, 2014. We foresee PSMC announcing a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR1,889mn (EPS: PKR22.95) during FY13 against a PAT of PKR978mn (EPS: PKR11.88) during the corresponding period last year, up 93pc. In line with past practice, we foresee PSMC declaring a dividend per share (DPS) of PKR4.5/- during 4QFY13 thereby pushing its FY13 DPS to PKR4.5/- (Dividend Payout; 20pc) against FY12 DPS of PKR2.5/- (Dividend Payout; 21pc).


… We foresee PSMC reporting a PAT of PKR2,140mn (EPS: PKR26.01) and DPS of PKR6/- in FY14 implying a PER of 5.84x and Dividend Yield of 4pc to its last traded value of PKR152.01/- (Feb 27, 2014). Our Fair Value for the PSMC scrip stands at PKR160.7/- implying that the scrip is currently trading at a discount of 6pc to its fair value. We have a ‘HOLD’ stance for PSMC scrip at current levels!

AHCML
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on February 28, 2014, 07:52:31 PM
Pakistan Suzuki Motor CY13 earnings anticipated at PKR 22.80

Pakistan Suzuki Motor (PSMC)’s BoD is scheduled to meet on Mar 5’14 to approve its financial result for CY13. Our estimates suggest that the company’s earnings will grow by 92% YoY to PKR 1,876mn (EPS: PKR 22.80) during CY13 compared to PKR 978mn (EPS: PKR 11.88) registered during CY12. Phenomenal growth in the company’s earnings was driven by: 1) improvement in the gross margin owing to PKR/JPY depreciation of 11% YoY, 2) a one-off gain from the sales of old motor cycle plant at PKR 280mn (EPS impact: PKR 3.00), and 3) higher car prices to pass through inflationary pressures. Potential earnings growth, however, was constrained by 20% YoY decline in volumetric sales. During 4Q CY13, the company is expected to earn a PAT of PKR 348mn (EPS: PKR 4.23), compared to a loss of PKR 198mn (EPS: PKR -2.40) in same period last year. Alongwith the result, we expect the board to declare a final dividend of PKR 5.00/ sh.


Alto absence puts a drag on the volume

During CY13, the company sold 76,818 units of vehicles, down by 20% YoY compared to 95,763 units sold in CY12 because of: 1) discontinuation of Alto model in Jul12 due to non-compliance with Euro-II standard, 2) ban on CNG enabled variants, 3) increase in car prices during the year, and 4) completion of Punjab government cab scheme last year. Moreover, the company’s motorcycle segment sales witnessed a minimal increase of 3% YoY to 20,977 units during the period under review. We anticipate PSMC’s revenues to decline by 13% YoY to PKR 50.89bn, dragged down by lower car sales.

For 4Q CY13, we expect PSMC to book revenues of PKR 11.93bn, increasing by 12% YoY (-1% QoQ) compared to last year. Jump in the revenues was largely due to better demand for its vehicles, especially Bolan (+15% YoY) Ravi (+22% YoY). Bolan’s sales depicted improvement due to increased demand as a commercial vehicle. Moreover, motorcycle sales volume also followed the same suit and posted growth of 42% YoY (-4% QoQ) on the back of increase in marketing activities.

Margins benefit from weakening of Yen; One-time gain in other income

Last year, Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s decision to expand quantitative easing program aimed at ending deflation in the economy, resulted in 11% JPY depreciation against Pak Rupee during CY13. Since PSMC’s CKD kits cost are mainly denominated in Yen, the company’s CKD cost declined. As a result, we expect the company’s gross margin to clock in at 6.6% during CY13, increasing by 2.6pps YoY. Furthermore, timely pass through of cost pressures also contributed to margin accretion during said period. On a sequential basis, PSMC’s margins are estimated to remain stable at 7.3% during 4Q CY13.

The company’s other income is expected to witness a double-digit growth of 52% YoY to PKR 749mn (EPS impact: PKR 8.19) during CY13. This surge was mainly because of a one-time gain from the sales of old motor cycle plant at PKR 280mn (EPS impact: PKR 3.00). Moreover, we also estimate the company’s treasury income to rise because of 100bps rise in key policy rate. In 4Q CY13, we expect the company’s other income to surge by 26% YoY (-16% QoQ) to PKR 85mn on the back of improved car sales during the period.

Outlook

Our Dec14 TP for PSMC stands at PKR 173/sh, offering an upside of 14% from its last closing price. Furthermore, the stock trades at FY14 P/E of 6.4x and offers a dividend yield of 3.0%. BUY!

Global

 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 03, 2014, 07:46:32 PM

CY13 earnings to clock in at PKR 21.59/share, up 82% YoY
 Pak Suzuki Motor Company’s (PSMC) Board of Directors is set to meet on 5th Mar’14 to approve its CY13 financial results. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 3.02/share in 4QCY13 taking the CY13 EPS to PKR 21.59/share vs. PKR 11.88/share in CY12. We also expect the company to announce a full year CY13 DPS of PKR 4 with the result. This +82% YoY growth is primarily on account of gross margins which are expected to improve by 220bps to 6% in CY13. In 4QCY13 we believe gross margins will drop by 224bps QoQ from 7.4% in 3QCY13 on account of JPY to USD appreciation of 7%. In CY13 the company realized a one off gain (PKR 278.5mn – after tax PKR 3.11/share) on disposal of land, building and waste treatment plant of an old motorcycle plant.

Year end phenomena pushes sales down 2% QoQ
 Due to year-end phenomena (new registrations opted at the start of CY14) Car & LCV units witnessed a 2% QoQ drop as main variants Swift and Mehran sales declined by -27% and -9% respectively, however Cultus sales rose by 17%. While in CY13 an increase of 36% YoY of Cultus sales has been witnessed.

 AIDP awaited soon
 The much awaited Auto Industry Development Policy II (AIDP-2) is expected to be announced shortly by the Gov’t, where a 5 year regulatory framework will be outlined. We flag our positivity on this policy for local assemblers as duties are expected to be reduced. Potential incentives for new auto assemblers of LCVs (trucks/vans/pickups) is unlikely to hurt the demand for exisiting participants who cater to markets of other variants. On the other hand, in case of an increase of age-limit of imported cars (currently 3 years) would be negative for local assemblers

 Recommendation
 We currently have a ‘Hold’ stance on PSMC with a June-14 TP of 169/share (offering an upside 6.7% from last closing), the scrip is currently trading at a CY14E P/E of 9.9 and P/B of 0.74.

AHL
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 04, 2014, 06:54:07 PM
Result Preview

PSMC: Margin expansion to lift CY13 EPS to PKR22.89

 
Result expectation
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its CY14 tomorrow. We expect the company to post EPS of PKR22.89, up 93% YoY. 4QCY13 EPS is estimated to clock in at PKR4.33 as compared to LPS of PKR2.41 in the same period last year. PSMC is also expected to announce full year cash payout of PKR4.5/share along with the results. 
Yen depreciation amid price hikes to expand margins
4QCY13 gross margins for PSMC are expected to clock in at 7.05%; up 571bps YoY primarily due to low base effect as 4QCY12 gross margins plummeted as the company was unable to pass on full price of EURO-II compliance to the consumers. The sharp accretion in margins for 4QCY13 stems from 1) 12.1% yen depreciation against rupee in 9MCY13 2) and regular price hikes (~5%) during CY13. Furthermore regular price hikes coupled with 5.2% YoY increase in volumetric sales shall deliver top line growth of 12% during the quarter. On full year basis, gross margin accretion is expected to increase by 249bps, despite 20% dip in volumetric sales.
Higher other income to further support bottom-line
We also expect other income for 4QCY13 to clock in at PKR147mn, up 1.2x YoY primarily due to 1.7x YoY higher average cash balance estimated during 4QCY13. 

Investment case
The stock at last closing price offers an upside of 5.3% to our Dec-14 PT of PKR167 along with a dividend yield of 2.8%. HOLD!

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 05, 2014, 06:44:25 PM
PSMC to post PAT of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs21.71) in CY13


In today’s Value Seeker, we present Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited’s (PSMC) result preview for CY13 coupled with our recommendation on the scrip.

PSMC is expected to post PAT of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs21.71) in CY13. The result announcement is expected to be accompanied a final dividend of Rs4.0/sh. The company’s bottom-line is likely to rise by a massive 83%YoY on the back of improvement of rising trend in other income, gain on disposal of land, building and waste water treatment plant of old motorcycle plant amounting Rs275mn and better gross margins. The company’s gross margins are expected to improve by 244bps accompanied by weaker Japanese Yen against US Dollar. However, depreciation in PKR against USD is expected to minimize the impact of depreciating yen in CY13. Moreover, increase in sales prices by ~5% during the said period is also expected to support the gross margins of the company.

On quarterly basis, PSMC is estimated to post a profit after tax of Rs259mn (EPS Rs3.14) in 4QCY13 as compared to a PAT of Rs371mn in last quarter. Such expectations are backed by an increase in sales price along with depreciation in JPY against PKR of 3%. However, the company’s unit sales are expected to drop by 2%QoQ as the buyers preferred to book vehicles with the New Year registration. Other income is expected to decline by 30% QoQ in 4QCY13 on account of fall in advances from customers (delay in vehicle booking).

Recommendation – ‘Buy’ with Jun-14 TP of Rs187/sh

At current levels, the scrip is trading at a PE of 6.6x based on CY14F earnings. We recommend ‘Buy’ on the scrip with a Jun-14 target price of Rs187share as the scrip has potential to provide handsome return of 17.6% and dividend yield of 3.8%.

InvestCap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 05, 2014, 06:48:35 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company expected to register earnings growth of 78% YoY

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to declare its full year results for CY13 on Mar05, 2014.

We estimate the company to post PAT of PKR1,740mn (EPS: PKR21.14/sh) in CY13 compared to PAT of PKR978mn (EPS: PKR11.88/sh) posted last year, depicting a tremendous growth of 78% YoY.

On QoQ basis, the earnings are expected to show a decline of 43% in 4Q2013 from PKR4.51/sh in 3QCY13 to PKR2.58/sh. QoQ margin erosion of 232bps to 5.1% is expected to be the key reason for decline in earnings, as the company deferred its price increase to Jan14.

The result is also expected to accompany a final cash dividend of PKR4.5/sh.

At our TP of PKR177/sh, we currently have a HOLD stance on the stock providing a total return of 9%

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 05:47:05 PM
Topline Alert: PSMC: 2013 EPS Rs22.47, DPS 4.0

§  Pakistan Suzuki Motors (PSMC) announced full year 2013 profits of R1.9bn (EPS Rs22.47) which is up 89% against Rs0.98bn (EPS Rs11.88) last year. The announcement was also accompanied with Rs4 per share final cash payout.

§  Although, volumes remained depressed in 2013 but increased in vehicle prices, better margins and capital gain on old motorcycle plant sale led to the profit growth. Thanks to 3.6% average car prices increase in 2013, revenues of PSMC declined by 12.8% to Rs51bn, despite 20% volume decline to 76,818 units. Further boost to the profits came from weakening Japanese Yen (JPY) which resulted into 234bps improvement in gross margins to 6.4% in 2013. To recall, company’s majority of imports are JPY denominated which depreciated by 11.5% against PKR in 2013.

§  EPS of Rs22.47 also includes one-time gain of Rs3.3 per share from the sale of old motor cycle plant. If we exclude it, there is still 61% profits growth in 2013.

§  Alone in 4Q2013, company posted EPS of Rs3.9 compared to EPS of Rs4.5 in 3Q2013, down 13% QoQ. Though volumes dropped by 2.5% QoQ to 17,526 units in last quarter, 1.5% increase in car prices resulted into stable revenue of Rs12bn. However, incomplete cost pass on resulted into 97bps fall in gross margins to 6.4%. On year on year basis, company showed handsome improvement from loss of Rs198mn (Rs2.4 per share). Loss in 4Q2012 was mainly attributed to huge influx of cheaper imported cars and, resultant, company’s inability to pass on rising costs to customers.

§  The result is in line with our expectation and we maintain ‘Hold’ on the scrip at current levels.

Topline
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 05:47:59 PM
AHCML: Market Lens 'PSMC: FY13 EPS at PKR22.47; DPS, PKR4

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. (PSMC) has announced its FY13 financial result today (Mar 06, 2014). PSMC announced a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR1,849mn (EPS: PKR22.47) during FY13 against a restated PAT of PKR977mn (EPS: PKR11.87) during the corresponding period last year, up 89pc. In line with past practice, PSMC has declared a dividend per share (DPS) of PKR4/- during 4QFY13 thereby pushing its FY13 DPS to PKR4/- (Dividend Payout; 18pc) against FY12 DPS of PKR2.5/- (Dividend Payout; 21pc).

…We foresee PSMC reporting a PAT of PKR2,140mn (EPS: PKR26.01) and DPS of PKR6/- in FY14 implying a PER of 6.16x and Dividend Yield of 3.75pc to its last traded value of PKR160.13/- (Mar 05, 2014). Our Fair Value for the PSMC scrip stands at PKR160.7/- implying that the scrip is currently trading at its fair value. We have a ‘HOLD’ stance for PSMC scrip at current levels!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 05:49:16 PM
PSMC CY13 Review: Earnings & margins improved despite lower volumes

q PSMC reported CY13 net earnings of PKR1,849mn (EPS PKR22.47) as compared to net earnings of PKR978mn (EPS PKR11.88) in the CPLY, thus showing a growth of 89% YoY. The company also announced a cash dividend of PKR4.0/share. Earnings remained  below our estimates mainly due to higher COGS as it seems that the projected weaker Yen impact  has not reflected in the 4q accounts.

q  PSMCs CY13 results showed sizeable improvement in profitability despite dip in volumes (20% YoY) due to frequent price hikes made by the company between October 2012 to 2013 along with weaker Yen impact YoY. Thus, an improvement in gross margins from 4.0% to 6.4% was reflected in CY13 as compared to CPLY. On the other hand, absence of Punjab Taxi scheme  also contributed well in improving the margins as the same were delivered during CY12 at the lower price of CY11.

q 4QCY13 earnings stood at PKR322mn as compared to PAT of PKR371mn, hence showing a decline in gross profit & net earnings of 13% each QoQ, mainly due to decline in volumetric sales by 2.5% QoQ (new year car registration phenomena). 

q In CY14, we are foreseeing improved volumes from the start of new year 2014 onward due to new year car registration phenomena (January showed 19.8% volumetric growth as compared to average 1HFY14 numbers), expected launch of Wagon R, improvement in macroeconomic environment , stable currency movement and finalization of AIDP?II.

 Taurus
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 05:50:22 PM
PSMC reports EPS of PKR22.46 for CY13


*          CY13 earnings clocked in at PKR1,848mn (PKR22.46/sh) from PKR978mn (PKR11.88/sh) in CY12, up by a substantial 89% YoY. Ex- land sales, the earnings jumped by 69% YoY to PKR20.08/sh. The uptick in margins by 234bps to 6.35% on account of lowering cost pressures remained the prime reason for growth in the bottomline. The company announced its full year dividend of PKR4/sh for CY13
 
*          For 4QCY13, the company reported PAT of PKR320mn (EPS: PKR3.89) versus PKR371mn (EPS: PKR4.51) in 3QCY13. The profits went down due to margin slippage by 97bps QoQ to 6.35% as average JPY/PKR appreciated by ~3% QoQ in 4QCY13

*          On the volumetric front, PSMC sold 76,818 cars in CY13 as compared to 86,254 in the same period last year, down by 11% YoY/2% QoQ
 

*          At our target price of PKR177/sh, we have a ‘HOLD’ stance on the stock providing total return of 13%

 
BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 06:05:33 PM
PSMC CY13 earnings up by 89% – Global Research

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) announced its financial result earlier today, posting earnings of PKR 1,849mn (EPS: PKR 22.47) during CY13, substantially up by 89% compared with PKR 978mn (EPS: PKR 11.88) earned during CY12. Earnings were slight lower than our estimate of PKR 1,876 (EPS: PKR 22.80), which was due to higher other income earned during last quarter. Improvement in the company’s bottom-line was due to accretion in the gross margins owing to PKR/JPY depreciation by 11% YoY and a one-off gain from the sales of old motor cycle plant at PKR 280mn (EPS impact: PKR 3.00). Furthermore, timely increase in the car prices to catch up with the rising cost pressures, aided the company to curtail margin compression. For 4Q CY13, the company booked a PAT of PKR 322mn (EPS: PKR 3.91), compared to a loss of PKR 198mn (EPS: PKR -2.40) in same period last year. Along with the result, the company’s BoD declared a final dividend of PKR 4.00/ sh.


Key Highlights

PSMC’s revenues declined by 13% YoY to PKR 51,061mn in CY13, against PKR 58,531mn booked during CY12. Drag in the revenues was because of a 20% YoY decline in the car sales volume to 76,818 units, compared to 95,763 units sold in CY12. This was because of: 1) discontinuation of Alto model in Jul12 due to non-compliance with Euro-II standard, 2) ban on CNG enabled variants, 3) increase in car prices during the year, and 4) completion of Punjab government cab scheme last year.

For 4Q CY13, the company booked revenues of PKR 12,112mn, increasing by 14% YoY (flattish on QoQ) compared to last year. Jump in revenues was largely due to better demand for its vehicles, especially Bolan (+15% YoY) Ravi (+22% YoY). Bolan’s sales depicted improvement due to increased demand as a commercial vehicle. Moreover, motorcycle sales volume also followed the same suit and posted growth of 42% YoY (-4% QoQ) on the back of increase in marketing activities.

In CY13, Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s decision to expand quantitative easing program aimed at ending deflation in the economy, resulted in 11% JPY depreciation against Pak Rupee during CY13. Since PSMC’s CKD kits cost are mainly denominated in Yen, the company’s CKD cost declined. As a result, the company’s gross margin clocked in at 6.4% during CY13, increasing by 2.4pps YoY. Moreover, the company’s decision to timely increase its car prices to match up with its cost, helped PSMC to pocket margin benefit that was ripped from PKR/JPY depreciation. On a sequential basis, PSMC’s margin dipped by 1.0pps  to 6.4% during 4Q CY13

The company’s other income witnessed a double-digit growth of 75% YoY to PKR 863mn (EPS impact: PKR 9.43) during CY13. This surge was mainly because of a one-time gain from the sales of old motor cycle plant at PKR 280mn (EPS impact: PKR 3.00). Moreover, increase in the company’s treasury income was because of 100bps rise in the key policy rate. For 4Q CY13, PSMC’s other income surged by 97% YoY (+169% QoQ) to PKR 199mn on the back of improved car sales during the period.

Outlook

Our Dec14 TP for PSMC stands at PKR 173/sh, offering an upside of 7% and a dividend yield of 3.0%. NEUTRAL!

Global
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 06, 2014, 06:52:00 PM
PSMC higher other income enhanced CY13 earnings by 89%YoY

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) posted annual earnings of PKR1,849mn (EPS:PKR22.47) for the year CY13 along with a full year dividend of PkR4/sh. The result remained in line with our expectation of NPAT PkR1,819mn (EPS:PkR22.10).

In CY13, PSMC’s total revenue went down by 13%YoY while gross margin of the company improved by ~200bps to 6% owing to a 14%YoY depreciation in JPY against PkR. Resultantly, EPS for the period enhanced by a massive 89%YoY.

The volumes in CY13 stood at 76,818 units against 95,763units in CY12. Volumes have gone down due to: i) Discontinuation of alto in late CY12, ii) Completion of Punjab taxi scheme and iii) Ban on CNG fitted cars. Therefore, the revenue plunged by 13%YoY.

Other income increased enormously by 75%YoY in CY13 due to increase in bank deposits and PkR275mn being profit on disposal of old motorcycle plant.

On QoQ basis, topline increased by a meager 0.36% to reach at PkR12,112mn owing to an average 2%QoQ rise in prices of Suzuki cars. However, volumetric sales plunged by 2%QoQ due to year end phenomenon. As a result, PSMC posted NPAT of PkR323mn (EPS:PkR3.92) in 4QCY13.

Distribution cost has increased by 47%QoQ owing to excessive advertising, sales promotion, free service and freight paid on transporting motorcycles to showrooms. Meanwhile, admin expenses remained intact and increased by minimal 3%QoQ.

Darson
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ziauddin on March 06, 2014, 07:28:23 PM
aq bhai tp?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on March 06, 2014, 08:58:08 PM
aq bhi has given TP of 200 but that was one year old story, can any one ask him about this script to hold/sell 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 07, 2014, 07:50:55 AM
Pak Suzuki Motor’s profit revs up 89%

Pak Suzuki Motor Company has recorded 89% surge in net profit for the year 2013, earning Rs1.85 billion compared to Rs977 million in previous year. It also announced a final cash dividend of 40% or Rs4 per share.
“Though volumes remained depressed in 2013, increase in vehicle prices, better margins and capital gain from sale of an old motorcycle plant led to the profit growth,” Topline Securities said in a report on Thursday.
Revenues dropped 12.8% to Rs51 billion despite a 20% decline in volumes to 76,818 units. This came on the back of an average 3.6% increase in car prices in the year.

Further boost to the profit came from weakening Japanese yen, which resulted in improvement of 234 basis points in gross margins to 6.4%. Most of the company’s imports were made in yen, which depreciated 11.5% against the rupee in 2013, the research house said.
Earnings per share (EPS) stood at Rs22.47 including one-off gain of Rs3.3 per share from the sale of an old motorcycle plant. If it is excluded, profit growth still stands at 61%.
In the fourth quarter (October to December), Pak Suzuki posted EPS of Rs3.9 compared to Rs4.5 in the third quarter, down 13%.
“Though volumes dropped 2.5% quarter-on-quarter to 17,526 units in the last quarter, a 1.5% increase in car prices resulted in stable revenues of Rs12 billion. However, incomplete cost pass-on led to 97-basis-point fall in gross margins to 6.4%,” Topline said.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 7th, 2014.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 07, 2014, 07:51:44 AM
PSMC: cashing in on yen depreciation

When one of the more popular products of a company is put out of business coupled with a ban on its most famous technology, a decline in sales seems like the most probable outcome. Does that necessitate a fall in profits? Well, not for Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC).

The company has ended CY13 with a blast, with bottom line nearly doubling on a year-on-year basis. PSMCs highest-ever profits of Rs1.85 billion have come amidst falling four-wheeler volumes, which declined by nearly 20 percent compared to the previous year.

The decline in sales during the year seems to have been driven by a variety of factors, including the phasing out of Alto. One of the most popular variant in the economy segment that sold 9,500 units last year, Alto was put out of production due to non-compliance with Euro-II engine requirement.

A regulatory shift in CNG policy (that led to a ban on factory-fitted gas-powered vehicles) also pushed down passenger vehicle volumes. PSMC turned out to be the worst-affected, given the Suzuki brands positioning as a low-priced choice targeting middle segment. As a result, all Suzuki brand four-wheelers, save Cultus, recorded a year-on-year decline in sales.

However, resurgence in Cultus popularity may have less to do with the variant and more with the lack of choices in the 1,000cc segment, given the phasing out of Alto and Cuore.

Fortunately, for PSMCs investors, the freefall in four-wheeler volumes came at a time of a tectonic shift in monetary policy of Japan, which opted for quantitative easing following the lead of US Fed to support a stagnating economy. As a result, the Japanese Yen declined by nearly 18 percent against US dollar during the year, turning around the gross profit situation for PSMC altogether.

Resultantly, gross margin rose by 234bps compared to last year, as lower input cost gave a breather to the top line. Note that PSMCs margins in CY13 are highest-ever, as the company has seemingly broken out of the four percent barrier.

Still, a heavy dependency on exchange rate to boost profitability does not sound like a savvy approach, given the long-term negative outlook for USD-PKR parity and forecast of stagnated passenger vehicle sales in the lower segment.

More support came from the one-time gain on sale of companys old motorcycle plant, which contributed another Rs410 million to profits. Overall, the company recorded EPS of Rs22.47, and announced a 40 percent cash dividend payout.

Going forward, the re-introduction of Alto (through a lifting of import-ban on engine parts from India) remains the only hope for companys four-wheelers. A refocus on motorcycle also seems to be on the cards for PSMC, signified by an increase in promotional spending on two-wheelers that resulted in a healthy increase in sales during this year as well.

But, given the heavy investment already being made by Yamaha and stepping up of the ante by Atlas Honda, there is a question mark over whether Suzukis sport bikes will be able to wither the storm of competition. Fingers crossed!

==============================================================
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited
==============================================================
Rs (mn)                           2013        2012         chg
==============================================================
Turnover                        51,061      58,531        -13%
Cost of sales                 (47,819)    (56,186)        -15%
Gross profit                     3,243       2,345         38%
Distribution cost                (560)       (358)         56%
Administrative expenses          (959)       (859)         12%
Other operating income             863         494         75%
Other operating expenses         (175)       (111)         58%
Net profit                       1,849         977         89%
EPS (Rs)                         22.47       11.87
==============================================================
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 07, 2014, 06:42:23 PM
Result Review

PSMC: CY13 earnings clock in at PKR22.47
 
Result announcement

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) recently announced its full year CY13 earnings. EPS for the period clocked in at PKR22.47 up 89% YoY. EPS for the quarter clocked in at PKR3.91 compared to a loss of PKR2.41 in the same period last year. The company also declared a full year cash payout of PKR4.0/share against our expectation of PKR4.5/share. 
Margins remain buoyant
Gross margin for 4QCY13 clocked in at 6.4%, up 5.1pp YoY, aided by 10% decline in average Yen against PKR coupled with regular price hikes during the period. However, on QoQ basis 4Q margin dropped by 97bps which was primarily due to 4% PKR depreciation in 1QCY13 as there is a lagged impact.   
Weak volumes primarily dragged top-line
Net sales for CY13 declined by 13% YoY primarily on the back of 20% cutback in volumes. This massive decline in volumes is due to 1) cessation of Alto (for implementation of EURO II standards), 2) ban on production of CNG fitted vehicles and 3) Termination of Punjab taxi scheme.

Higher other income supported bottom line
Other income for CY13 showed a significant jump of 75% YoY on the back of higher cash reserves and one-off gain of PKR274mn from the sale of land realized in 2QCY13. Consequently effective tax rate (21.4%) was lower which further supported bottom line. 


Maintain HOLD
At last closing, the stock offers an upside of 4.2% along with a dividend yield of 2.8%, cumulatively offering a total shareholder return of 7.0%. At current levels the stock is trading at CY14 PE of 6.5x. Maintain HOLD!

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on March 12, 2014, 01:12:23 PM
AQ bhi, what should be the exit price, i have bought it upon ur call, bundle of prayers for u upon such a nice call,
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 12, 2014, 06:02:06 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company escalating margins, increasing attractiveness

We have revisited our investment case for PSMC, increasing TP by 32% to PKR232/sh on account of 3%, 40% and 30% upward revision in our earnings estimate for CY14, CY15 and CY16 respectively.

Considerable growth in sales during the outgoing year by 16% YoY also continued in Jan14, depicting a 9% YoY/18% MoM growth. Based on these facts, we have assumed a 5% growth in volumes for CY14 and a 3% CAGR in 2015-2017.

Based on JPY depreciation, we also lift our margins assumption for CY14 and CY15 by 150bps and 319bps to 7.35% and 8.94% respectively.

The company is now under normal tax regime and would continue to remain under it. As per our estimates,  this will limit the earnings growth for the company by PKR4.48/sh

We highlight any development on AIDP-II front (expected to be announced soon) as a key game changing event for the industry.

At our revised TP of PKR232/sh the scrip offers a total return of 33% with potential upside of 30% and dividend yield of 3%, justifying our BUY stance on the stock.

We have revisited our investment case for PSMC, increasing TP by 32% to PKR232/sh on account of 3%, 40% and 30% upward revision in our earnings estimate for CY14, CY15 and CY16 respectively. The revision was induced by more than expected increase in margins of the company in CY13 (clocked in at 6.35%) due to substantial JPY depreciation against PKR.

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on March 12, 2014, 07:17:48 PM
AQ bhi, what should be the exit price, i have bought it upon ur call, bundle of prayers for u upon such a nice call,


AQ bhi, plz answer asap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 21, 2014, 09:32:55 PM
PSMC TP revision following stronger PkR

Following swift PkR appreciation, subsequent incorporation of higher GMs and a revision in volume estimates, we raise our EPS estimates for PSMC by 6% on average. Together will rollover onto Dec’14, our target price for PSMC rises to PkR195/share (+12%). We forecast NPAT of PkR1,892mn (EPS: PkR22.99) in CY14F which represents normalized growth of 20%YoY (ex-sale of land in CY13), leading to a double-digit projected 5yr NPAT CAGR (normalized). That said, we believe the stock’s 23%MTD rise has largely captured the positives where our revised target price implies a Neutral stance. Factors that would induce us to revisit our investment case include a sustained strong PkR (+ve) as well as the provisions of the upcoming auto policy.

CY13 result review: Inline with our estimates, PSMC posted NPAT of PkR1,849mn (EPS: PkR22.47) in CY13 vs. NPAT of PkR978mn (EPS: PkR11.88) in CY12, translating into reported growth of 89%YoY. Excluding the impact of the Punjab Taxi Scheme (CY12) and the gain on sale of land (CY13), normalized CY13 growth is estimated at 130%YoY. CY13 GMs clocked in at 6.4%, a 6yr high due to a weaker JPY, which enabled the company to shrug off the impact of lower volumes.  Alongside the result, PSMC announced a PkR4/share dividend (payout ratio: 18%).          .

Growth drivers: After posting a 20%YoY decline in volumes in CY13 (ex-taxi scheme 7%YoY decline) to 76,818 units with a higher competition from imported used vehicles, the company posted volumes of 14,030 units in 2MCY14 (New Year registrations uptick). Going forward, margins are expected to remain buoyant due to a stronger PkR even as we expect only marginal price increases across full-year CY14 (we do not rule out a reduction in near-term prices ala INDU). We forecast NPAT of PkR1,892mn (EPS: PkR22.99) in CY14F which represents normalized growth of 20%YoY (ex-sale of land in CY13), leading to a double-digit projected 5yr NPAT CAGR (normalized).

Auto financing on the up: Outstanding stock of auto financing rose by an impressive 25%YoY growth to PkR56bn by end-Dec’13. Considering banks’ interest rate margins continue to remain under pressure, we see this trend continuing. That said, this growth in auto financing is also partly due to finance purchase of imported cars where the upcoming auto policy understandably remains the key swing factor.

Investment perspective: Having gained 23%MTD/27%CYTD, PSMC trades at a forward P/E of 8.5x where the company’s current market capitalization is at a 6yr high. In our view, while resumption of auto financing is a positive, the auto sector has yet to see a cyclical uptick ala CY02-CY07 (breakthrough contingent on new auto policy and sustained macro improvement). As such, we believe auto stocks’ valuations will likely continue to trade at par with the broader market. Our revised target price of PkR195/share implies a Neutral stance.

AKD
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 06, 2014, 10:39:03 AM
Auto Industry: Pak Suzuki reduces prices

KARACHI:
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) has reduced car prices, a decrease ranging from Rs5,000 to Rs100,000, with effect from April 7, 2014.
Suzuki Mehran VXR price has been cut by Rs5,000, Cultus by Rs10,000, Ravi by Rs10,000, Bolan by Rs10,000, Swift by Rs20,000, and Liana by Rs100,000.
Pak Suzuki is the largest car assembler in Pakistan and becomes the last company to reduce car prices after Indus Motors, local affiliate of Toyota Motors, and Honda Atlas Cars, local affiliate of Honda Japan.
All three car assemblers in the country have reduced prices in the wake of the Pakistani rupee’s appreciation against the US dollar, which has had an impact on their costs.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2014.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 09, 2014, 06:05:22 PM
http://www.pakwheels.com/blog/2014/04/04/its-official-pak-suzuki-to-launch-wagon-r-on-april-18/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=04-07-2014&utm_campaign=newsletters

http://www.pakwheels.com/blog/2013/11/27/pak-suzuki-will-import-karimun-wagon-r-indonesia/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: misterjaved on April 15, 2014, 01:18:22 AM
hi seniors

what are expectations from PSMC and targets.? please share
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 22, 2014, 06:45:33 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1QCY14 financial results on April 25, 2014. We expect that PSMC to post 19% YoY growth. We expect that company will report 1QCY14 NPAT of Rs 431.5mn (EPS Rs 5.24) against Rs 361.8mn (EPS Rs 4.40) reported in same period last year (SPLY).

Favourable PKR/USD parity will enhance company’s gross margin by 200bps to 6.6% against 4.7% reported SPLY.

We expect that company’s net revenue will decrease by 5% YoY due to decrease in volumetric sales in 1QCY14 against corresponding period last year. But increase in gross margin and decrease in finance cost will support the bottom line.

 
Volumetric sales outlook| WagonR to join the family

During 1QCY14 PSMC was able to sale 20,012 cars and 6,332 motorcycles against 21,104 cars and 5,352 motorcycles were sold in SPLY. Through cars sales are decline but motorcycle sales have been increase on YoYbasis which is good omen.

PSMC’s new baby WagonR is ready to join the race and this 1000cc locally assembled car is expected to fill out the gap created due to discontinuation of Alto back in last year. We expected that PSCM to enjoy the growth in volumetric sales in coming days.

Valuation: HOLD

PSMC yield CY14 PE multiple of 8.5x based on our estimation. We estimate that appreciating PKR against USD & JPY along with expected growth in volumetric sales company will post noticeable growth in year-end earnings. We maintain HOLD stance.

SCS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 23, 2014, 05:56:44 PM
Result Preview

PSMC: 1QCY14 earnings expected to clock in at PKR4.7
Result announcement
Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1QCY14 financial results on 25th April, 2014. We expect the company to post EPS of PKR4.7 for the period, up 7% YoY. 
Top line to remain flat as volumes decline 5% YoY
Net sales of the company for 1QCY14 is expected to remain flat YoY, despite 5% decline in volumes, and partly supported by ~5.5% YoY increase in prices of different variants.

Higher gross margin… 
Gross Margins are expected to clock in at 6.4% for the quarter, up 170bps YoY which shall lead to 36% YoY increase in gross profit.


… To be offset by higher effective tax rate
However earnings will be negatively affected by normalized effective tax rate. Note that 1QCY13 tax rate clocked in at 18%, due to reduction in turnover tax rate to 0.5% from 1%.



Investment Case

At last closing, the stock offers a upside of 4.8% to our Dec-14 PT of PKR225/sh along with a dividend yield of 2%. HOLD.

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 24, 2014, 09:47:02 PM
PSMC: 1QFY14(F) EPS at PKR4.77
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. (PSMC)  is all set to announce  its 1QFY14 financial result tomorrow 
(Apr 25, 2014). On YoY basis, a relatively stable  ‘top?line’ – down 1pc ?;  relatively high GP Margins 
(GP Margins,  1QFY14:  6.45pc  against GP Margins,  1QFY13:  4.74pc) mitigated  by  high  average  tax 
rate during 1QFY14 may allow PSMC to report a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR393mn (EPS: PKR4.77) 
during 1QFY14 against a PAT of PKR362mn (EPS: PKR4.40) during the corresponding period last year, 
up 9pc. In line with past practices, we do not foresee PSMC announcing any dividend during 1QFY14. 
On QoQ  basis,  an  11pc  surge  in  PSMC’s  top?line;  relatively  stable Gross  Profit Margins, QoQ  (GP 
Margin, 1QFY14: 6.45pc against GP Margin, 4QFY13: 6.40pc) and stable average tax rate may allow 
the Company to report a 22pc hike in its QoQ PAT. Accordingly, we foresee PSMC reporting a PAT of 
PKR393mn  (EPS: PKR4.77) during 1QFY14 against PAT of PKR322mn  (EPS: PKR3.91) during 4QFY13. 
In accordance with past practices, we do not foresee PSMC announcing any dividend during 1QFY14. 

AL Habib Capital Markets  (Pvt.) Ltd.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 25, 2014, 07:19:09 PM
PSMC: 1QFY14 EPS at PKR5.38
Pak  Suzuki Motor Company  Ltd.  (PSMC) has  announced  its  1QFY14  financial  result  today. On  YoY
basis, a relatively stable ‘top?line’ – up 1pc ?; relatively high GP Margins (GP Margins, 1QFY14: 7.08p
against  GP Margins,  1QFY13:  4.74pc) mitigated  by  high  average  tax  rate  during  1QFY14  allowed
PSMC to report a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR443mn (EPS: PKR5.38) during 1QFY14 against a PAT o
PKR362mn  (EPS:  PKR4.40)  during  the  corresponding  period  last  year,  up  22pc.  In  line  with  pas
practices, PSMC did not announce any dividend during 1QFY14. 
On  QoQ  basis,  a  13pc  surge  in  PSMC’s  top?line;  relatively  stable  Gross  Profit Margins,  QoQ  (GP
Margin, 1QFY14: 7.08pc against GP Margin, 4QFY13: 6.40pc) and stable average tax rate allowed the
Company  to  report  a  38pc  hike  in  its QoQ  PAT. Accordingly,  PSMC  reported  a  PAT  of  PKR443mn
(EPS:  PKR5.38)  during  1QFY14  against  PAT  of  PKR322mn  (EPS:  PKR3.91)  during  4QFY13.  In
accordance with past practices, PSMC did not announce any dividend during 1QFY14. 

AHCML
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 25, 2014, 08:01:16 PM
Pakistan Alert: (April-25-2014)
 PSMC: 1Q2014 EPS Rs5.38

Pakistan Suzuki Motors (PSMC) announced 1Q2014 profits of R442.8mn (EPS Rs5.38) which is up 22.4% against Rs362mn (EPS Rs4.40) in the same period last year.

Although, volumes declined by 5.1%YoY from 21,104 units in 1Q2013 to 20,022 units in 1Q2014 but of recent appreciation of PKR against US dollar and late revision in car prices has bode well and resulted into 2%YoY lower cost of sales to Rs12.7bn. Consequently, gross margins increased to 7.1% in 1Q2014 from 4.7% in 1Q2013. We expect further improvement in margins going forward as major impact of PKR appreciation against dollar will further reduce costs.

The finance cost of the company has also gone down substantially to Rs2.7mn in 1Q2014 from Rs35.7mn in the same period last year.

On quarter-on-quarter basis, revenues of the company grew by 13.1% to Rs13.7bn primarily due to new year model phenomenon as witnessed by volumetric growth of 14.2% from 17,526 units in 4Q2013 . The earnings of the company has increased by almost 38% to Rs442.8mn primarily due to decrease in distribution and administrative cost by 19.7% and 8.5% respectively.

The result is in line with our expectation and we maintain ‘Hold’ on the scrip at current levels.

Topline
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 26, 2014, 09:18:47 AM
Corporate results:Pak Suzuki posts healthy profit
KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) posted a net profit of Rs443 million in the first quarter ended March 31, up 22.4% compared to Rs362 million for the same period last year.
Its earnings per share (EPS) were recorded at Rs5.38 against Rs4.40 for the corresponding period in the previous year.
Pakistan rupee appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks has strongly supported the company’s earnings.
The company posted handsome earnings despite the decline in volumes by 5.1% year-on-year (YoY) from 21,104 units in the first quarter of 2013 (1Q2013) to 20,022 units in 1Q2014.
Moreover,  late revision in car prices has also bode well for the company which resulted into 2%YoY lower cost of sales to Rs12.7 billion.
Pak Suzuki was the last company (after Indus Motor and Atlas Honda Cars) to reduce car prices after the sharp appreciation of the rupee against the dollar recently.
Consequently, gross margins increased to 7.1% in 1Q2014 from 4.7% in 1Q2013. “The result is in line with our estimates. We expect further improvement in margins going forward as major impact of Pakistan rupee appreciation against the dollar will further reduce costs,” Topline securities reported on Friday.
The finance cost of the company has also gone down substantially to Rs2.7 million in 1Q2014 from Rs35.7 million in the same period of last year.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, revenues of the company grew by 13.1% to Rs13.7 billion primarily due to new year model phenomenon (customers prefer buying new models in January instead of December) as witnessed by volumetric growth of 14.2% from 17,526 units in 4Q2013.
The earnings of the company has increased by almost 38% to Rs443 million primarily due to decrease in distribution and administrative cost by 19.7% and 8.5% respectively.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 26th, 2014.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on May 10, 2014, 10:54:08 PM
PSMC finally started showing some colors in Apr’14

·         The latest released numbers by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) shows a strong start of 4QFY14 for PSMC. The company’s sales stood at 7,362 units in Apr’14, a growth of 18%YoY and 23%MoM and  is the highest monthly sales of the last 22-months.

·         The company’s new variant, Suzuki WagonR, seems to have been well received as the company sold 309 units in its first month of production.  However, underline demand of the new variant is subject to continuation of positive response by the market once the novelty factors fade away. In this regard, we continue to closely watch the sales numbers of the coming few months.

 ·         Other variant of PSMC also depicted steady growth with Mehran and Cultus sales up 31% and 42% respectively.

 ·         In 10MFY14, the company has sold 62,879 units versus 61,689 units in the same period last year, up 2%YoY and has underperform the industry by 2%. Subsequently, its  marginally lost its market shares to 56%.
·         On the other side of spectrum, INDU started the new quarter on a slow note. The company was only able to sale 2,857 units in Apr’14, down 27%YoY and 30%MoM.  Though awaiting further clarity, a substantial decline in sales can partially be attributed to deferred sales as the new model of the company’s flagship product ‘Corolla’ is around the corner.
·         In 10MFY14, the company’s sales has
 declined by 1%YoY to 29,589 units.
·         Lastly, HCAR showed a strong growth of 10%YoY in Apr’14 to 1,950 units . However, sales were  stagnant as that of last month.

·         Overall, the sales of local assemblers stood at 112,470 units (up 4%YoY) in  10MFY14, of which 12,250 units were sold in Apr’14  (up 2%YoY, stagnant on MoM).

·         Though the sector has been positively impacted by PkR appreciation, the upcoming federal budget (due next month) holds vital importance for the sector.


 Shajar
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on May 20, 2014, 04:58:36 PM
AKD Daily
 
 
PSMC: Wagon ‘R’evving up!


Following the launch of the new Wagon R (1000cc hatchback) along with swift PkR appreciation and subsequent incorporation of higher GMs, we raise our EPS estimates for PSMC by 21% on average. Together with rollover onto Jun’15, this results in a revised target price of PkR230/share for PSMC which offers upside of 14% from current levels. Our Accumulate stance is based on a projected 5yr NPAT CAGR of 11%, driven by sustained strong margins (7%+) and an improved outlook for sales despite regulatory risks. In this regard, we have reduced our volumetric assumptions for local lower segment vehicles by 5% on average vs. base-case in view of the likely reduced tariffs on imported vehicles of lower segment (below 700cc). That said, we believe such risks are already priced in. PSMC trades at a CY14F P/E of 6.8x where we have an Accumulate stance on the scrip.

Cyclical uptick: During 2003-2007, auto sector volumetric sales grew at a robust 32% CAGR owing to the confluence of rising disposable incomes in a contained inflation environment, single digit interest rates and sharp increase in auto financing. In contrast, auto sector volumes fell by 5%pa across the previous 5yrs. Considering the economy is headed for an uptick, interest rates have likely peaked and auto financing has started to rebound (+26%YoY in Mar’14), we believe the auto sector is headed for a sustained period of higher demand. This should complement higher gross margins following the 3.3%CYTD appreciation of the PkR vs. the JPY (6.4%CYTD appreciation vs. US$). In this regard, besides the uptick in margins (projected at 7%+), we see higher volumetric sales for PSMC going forward despite regulatory risks. This is encapsulated by an encouraging launch of the Wagon-R (1000cc hatchback). While its pricing is similar to the popular Cultus model and a degree of cannibalization cannot be ruled out, the Wagon-R should be able to create its own niche given its K-series engine is touted as highly fuel efficient (18km/ltr). The combination of strong margins and higher demand should enable PSMC to post a 11% NPAT CAGR across the next 5yrs.

Historical Valuations: During the 2003-2007 auto boom, PSMC’s earnings grew at a 27% CAGR while the scrip traded at an average P/S of 0.39x. Considering the stock’s current P/S stands at just 0.26x on CY14F estimates, we believe there is significant room for PSMC to continue its valuation rerating. In this regard, our target price of PkR230/share implies a target CY14F P/S of 0.29x and a CY15F P/S of 0.26x which we believe is reasonable.

Investment Perspective: Having gained 31%CYTD, PSMC trades at a CY14F P/E of 6.8x where the company's current market capitalization is near a 6yr high. We flag an ongoing macro uptick and revival in auto financing as key positives that should allow incremental demand to complement strong margins. Our revised target price of PkR230/share offers 14% upside. Accumulat
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sfaisalhassan on May 21, 2014, 12:29:27 PM
FBR plans to increase duties on imported vehicles in budget


ISLAMABAD: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is mulling to increase the duties on the imported vehicles in the budget 2014-2015, which would increase the prices of the cars in the country.
Background discussions with FBR officials have revealed that government is likely to increase the duties on the import of vehicles in the budget. The official hinted that government might increase duties on more than 1300cc cars. The proposal would enhance the car prices in the country if approved by Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar.
The officials informed that government is considering many other proposals to generate additional revenue next year that included imposition of federal excise duty (FED) on several commodities. The government is likely to enhance the FED on cement from 400 per metric tones to 500 PMT in the budget that would increase its prices. Similarly, the government could impose FED on cosmetics, paints & varnishes and lubricating oils in thee budget.
However, the officials were of the view that government has no intention to impose duty on the import of gold. According to a senior official of the FBR the government has not yet finalized the tax exemptions to be withdrawn in the upcoming budget, as he said, “Government is working with relevant stakeholders in this regard”.
Meanwhile, Dar, while chairing a meeting on budget, said that all discriminatory SROs will be abolished in a period of three years and all the stakeholders are working together in this regard. He said that we believe in consulting all stakeholders including chambers of commerce, trade bodies, representatives of the industries, exporters and importers in the process of budget making.
Dar chaired a meeting with the presidents of Chambers of Commerce (FPCCI, KCCI, LCCI, QCCI, FCCI, Rawalpindi/Islamabad CCI, Gujranwala CCI, Sialkot CCI and Hyderabad CCI) at the FBR to discuss budget related proposals.
The finance minister urged the chambers and business community to stay engaged with the FBR for consolidation of budget proposals. He assured them that there will be continuity of economic policies in the country and the reform process will be completed within a period of three years. –Imran Ali Kundi
 He said that the policies of the PML-N will fill the trust deficit between FBR and traders and there will be win-win situation for the business community and the government. He welcomed proposals from the trade representatives and assured them that the government will give a serious consideration to their proposals before finalizing budget.
The chamber representatives discussed in detail their issues and recommendations. They appreciated the work being done by the Finance Ministry and FBR for SROs rationalization. The traders appreciated strengthening of Pak rupee and observed that it will have positive impact on the economy. They assured the finance minister for their cooperation in bringing into the tax net all those traders who are not tax payers. The traders also appreciated finance minister’s personal interest in sales tax refunds. There was a general sense of satisfaction on the economic policies of the government and expectations that reforms will bring positive impact on the country.
The finance minister said that it is high time that we all should join hands for our future generations and promoting tax culture will allow the government to spend in socio-economic uplift of the country. He informed the traders that the finance ministry has been very strict in bringing down the expenditure of the Federal Government. He said that every rupee of the taxpayers money will be spent wisely and we will not allow corruption at any all level of the government.

http://ksewire.blogspot.com/2014/05/fbr-plans-to-increase-duties-on.html
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on May 26, 2014, 08:02:51 PM

PKR61/share cash balance and margins expansion theme to keep the stock in limelight!

We review 1QCY14 result of PSMC in which the company reported net profit of PKR433mn (EPS PKR5.38, up by 38% QoQ). Net sales lagged the QoQ volumetric growth due to slowdown in Cultus sales. Yen weakening impact however did augment the gross margins QoQ, while a meaningful dip in operating expense resulted in operating profits growing by 79% QoQ. Lower other income resulted in tamed pre-tax earnings growth of 40%. On a YoY basis, while the pretax earnings grew by a handsome 53%, hike in tax rate limited the net earnings growth to 22%.

1QCY14 cash balance has ballooned to PKR4.99bn (PKR60.7/share) and may result in higher payout this year compared to the companys previous payout trend. Aprils volumetric sales saw a hefty 17.5% YoY rise with the full monthly sales impact of Wagon R, yet to come in. With margin expansion impact (PKR appreciation) set to fully reflect in the coming quarters, we expect the CY14 operating profits to show a hefty growth YoY. Net earnings growth, however will rise by a lower level due to higher tax rate and lower other income (high base effect). At current price, we maintain our Buy stance on the scrip.

Taurus Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Afzal on June 11, 2014, 01:26:28 PM
MZ bhai...any short term target price pls?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 11, 2014, 03:14:24 PM
buy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on June 11, 2014, 05:09:49 PM
buy

ur TP for short and long term plz
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 11, 2014, 10:10:57 PM
MZ bhai...any short term target price pls?

240 then 300
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 11, 2014, 11:30:38 PM
buy

ur TP for short and long term plz
250-270.....short term.....long term agreed with MZ
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 12, 2014, 12:21:57 AM
MZ bhai...any short term target price pls?

240 then 300
Suzuki ko cap kero
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: EHM on June 12, 2014, 01:34:58 PM
is ko kya ho gaya?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 12, 2014, 03:34:02 PM
is ko kya ho gaya?
:crying_anim02:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on June 12, 2014, 04:24:15 PM
Took an entry@220
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Zayn on June 12, 2014, 05:08:36 PM
utomobile sector great margins.... BUY PSMC with lowest PE of 8.3 x | Monthly sales reviews

Pakistani automobile sector has been protected by the government by taking feasible decisions to discourage the import of finished automobiles. The growth in automobile sector remained stagnant during FY14. The industry also contributes its due share in the GDP of the country via import duties, sales tax, federal excise duties etc. Local car assemblers are benefiting from appreciating PKR against JPY and USD nowadays. There margins are swelling which is being observed in latest financial results of auto companies.

Withdrawal of FED on 1800cc vehicles:

The federal budget for FY15 is seems to be beneficiary for the local auto assemblers.  The Ministry of Finance has proposed to withdraw the 10% excise duty on locally made 1,800cc vehicles which will result in decrease in selling price. The Indus motors company (INDU) will be major beneficiary in form of increase in volumetric sales of Fortuner and Hilux.

Trade with India - a favourable stance..

Automobile being a highly import sensitive sector will also get benefits in term of low freight charges, availability of raw material at low rate then the Japanese market.

We expect that local players only will be benefited if government only allow import of raw material, inputs, machine tools, machinery & equipment and other set of products categorized under industrial inputs rather making attractive market for Indian finished vehicles.

Automobile sector maintained the flow in May 14

(See detailed table in PDF file)

As per the latest data released by the PAMA for the month of May 14, overall monthly volumetric sales remained inactive and 12,170 units of locally assembled vehicles were sold during May 14 which is almost unchanged as compare to April's sales of 12,162 units.

While looking at YoY basis overall industry sales grows by 1.9% to 123,365 units in 11MFY14 against 121,047 units sold in same period last year. The HCAR is on the driving seat to drive the growth of overall volumetric sales with 16% MoM growth which is mainly due to customer's preference to high end luxury cars.

Tractor sales down by 30% on both MoM and YoY

Due to off session, increase in prices and higher taxes on tractors led the tractor industry to massive drop in sales by 30% MoM and same in YoY. During May 14 MTL sold 2,365 units and AGTL sold 752 units against 2,907 and 1,553 respectively sold in April 14.

Valuation:

We believe that there are still many hopes alive with auto sector mainly PSMC. The key triggers for expected charm include swelling margins, increasing local demand and positive side of Pak-India trade. The outperform capital market, good crops and growth in remittances will also drive the local sales demand.

Currently PSMC yields lowest expected PE of 8.3x in the industry which is still attractive to take long position in it. Wherein HCAR and INDU are yielding PE of 14xand 11.5x respectively.

We maintain BUY stance for PSMC. And HOLD stance for both INDU and HCAR

 
SCS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: wasi on June 12, 2014, 09:28:37 PM
Yellow Cab Scheme in Punjab Budget :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 12, 2014, 10:12:19 PM
Took an entry@220
I also have 5k @224 :crying_anim02:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on June 12, 2014, 10:25:21 PM
Yellow Cab Scheme in Punjab Budget :good
sure???????????????????????????
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: small bbs on June 13, 2014, 02:05:36 AM
Yellow Cab Scheme in Punjab Budget :good
sure???????????????????????????

last year bi yeh shosha chora gia tha.

Kia kehtay hain.........Dil kay behlany ko ghalib ye khial acha hay
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 13, 2014, 11:49:25 AM
Yellow Cab Scheme in Punjab Budget :good
sure???????????????????????????

last year bi yeh shosha chora gia tha.

Kia kehtay hain.........Dil kay behlany ko ghalib ye khial acha hay

ghalib ka khial phir acha hi nikla
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 14, 2014, 05:06:09 AM
50000 yellow cabs,.................lao PSMC on Monday to Friday full cap program  :clap1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Afzal on June 15, 2014, 02:45:27 PM
Took an entry@220
I also have 5k @224 :crying_anim02:


50 k yellow cabs announced ....ab rally aey ge ? kahan tak ja skti pricce and monday ko kia price safe buying ho skti? pls share
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 16, 2014, 11:00:59 AM
50000 yellow cabs,.................lao PSMC on Monday to Friday full cap program  :clap1:

MASHALLAH pehla cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: EHM on June 16, 2014, 11:29:17 AM
50000 yellow cabs,.................lao PSMC on Monday to Friday full cap program  :clap1:

MASHALLAH pehla cap

 :good    :dance

Lets hope there are more to come.  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 16, 2014, 06:14:21 PM
AKD Daily
PSMC: Upgraded to Buy on Taxi Scheme!

The Punjab government has again announced the Yellow Cab Scheme in its FY15 Budget, now for 50,000 units with an allotted budgetary amount of PkR25bn. Recall that earlier in FY12, this scheme extended to 20,000 units, comprised of 12,000 units of Mehran and 8,000 units of Bolan. We understand that these same vehicle variants will underline the new scheme, thereby proving beneficial for PSMC. Incorporating this into our financial model, we raise our EPS estimates for PSMC by 71% for CY14F to PkR50.29 and 43% for CY15F to PkR42.88. As a result, our target price for PSMC rises to PkR277/share, up from PkR230/share previously. PSMC has already gained 47%CYTD where we believe the new taxi scheme will serve to extend the rally in the stock particularly as the recently announced Federal Budget FY15 was benign towards incumbent OEMs. PSMC trades at attractive CY14F and CY15F P/E multiples of 4.5x and 5.3x, respectively, where our revised target price offers 23% upside. Buy!
 
Revisiting the previous scheme: The previous version of the Yellow Cab Scheme was announced in the FY12 provincial budget comprising of 20,000 units (12,000 units of Mehran and 8,000 units of Bolan). The only provider for this yellow cab scheme at that time was PSMC, which benefited accordingly. In this regard, our workings suggest that GP margins of ~3.8% prevalent at the time resulted in a positive annualized EPS impact of ~PkR6.2 for PSMC. The provincial government as well as the intermediary (BOP) both termed the scheme a success with high recovery rates.   
  . 
The new Yellow Cab Scheme: The Provincial Government of Punjab in its FY15 Budget has announced a scheme of 50,000 yellow cabs. The total budget allocation for this scheme is PkR25bn which translates into PkR0.5mn/unit cost of a cab (likely government subsidy). At this price, there is no availability of any car assembled locally where Mehran and Bolan are the cheapest vehicles which we understand will again be selected for this scheme. For our workings, we assume that these 50,000 units will comprise of 30,000 units of Mehran and 20,000 units of Bolan. We further assume that the positive EPS impact will be split across CY14F and CY15F. Incorporating the new scheme results in our EPS estimates for CY14F and CY15F increasing by 71% and 43% to PkR50.29 and PkR42.88, respectively. As a result, our target price for PSMC has increased by 21% to PkR277/share, up from PkR230/share previously.           .
 
Investment Perspective and Valuations: PSMC has gained 47%CYTD, outperforming the broader market by 29% in the same period, where the stock has been buoyed by a benign Federal Budget for incumbent OEMs (e.g. 10% increase in duty of used imported cars). With the Punjab taxi scheme poised to add impetus to earnings, we rate PSMC (CY14F P/E: 4.5x; CY15F P/E: 5.3x) a Buy where our revised target price offers 23% upside. The key medium-term risk for PSMC in particular and the Auto sector in general remains the AIDP-II particularly if the GoP tilts its stance to favor import of used vehicles.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: wasi on June 16, 2014, 10:18:27 PM
Bolan and Ravi  (50,000 units)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 16, 2014, 10:59:13 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): Punjab taxi scheme; an earning impetus

The Government of Punjab in its budget for FY15 has allocated PKR25bn for the Punjab taxi scheme. To recall, under the Punjab taxi scheme 2012, the government allocated PKR10.5bn for the project under which 20k cabs were distributed. The scheme contained 60% (12,000 units) of Mehran and 40% (8,000 units) of Bolan. Though the government has quoted 50k+ cabs to be distributed; however, based on current markert prices and same proportion of Mehran and Bolan (60%:40%), we estimate 38-40k cabs would be distributed to fully utilize the PKR25bn allocated. Based on the current margin levels of 9.1% (ex-depreciation), we expect annualized EPS impact to stand at ~PKR15.8/sh.

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 16, 2014, 11:17:59 PM
PSMC inline to benefit from yellow cab scheme, ‘Buy’ conviction raised

The Punjab Government has allocated Rs25bn in its FY15 budget to provide 50,000 yellow cabs.

Although details of the short-listed manufacturers are yet to be announced for the scheme, we see high probability of Pak Suzuki’s (PSMC) selection.

We believe until clarity emerges, parallels to FY12’s yellow cab scheme are inevitable. Punjab government had allocated Rs4.5bn to provide 20,000 yellow cabs in FY12, while short-listed Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan for the scheme.

We believe if short listed, the yellow cab scheme can lift PSMC 2014E/15F earnings by 13%/20% as earnings impact is likely to be spread over its Jan-Dec reporting period. On a standalone basis, our back-of-the-envelope working suggests annualized earnings impact of ~Rs10/share.

We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating  on PSMC with a Target Price of Rs240, where potential yellow cab scheme can lift our Target Price to Rs285.

Punjab govt. announces yet another yellow cab scheme

The Punjab government has allocated Rs25bn in its FY15 budget to provide 50,000 yellow cabs (150% higher from a similar scheme in FY12). Although details of the short listed manufacturers are yet to be announced for the scheme, we see high probability of Pak Suzuki’s (PSMC) selection taking cue from a similar scheme announced in FY12. We believe until clarity emerges, parallels to FY12’s yellow cab scheme are inevitable. Punjab government had allocated Rs4.5bn to provide 20,000 yellow cabs in FY12, while short-listed locally assembled Suzuki Mehran and Suzuki Bolan for the scheme. Similar to last scheme, this year’s scheme will be targeting the youth of Punjab with a maximum age of 35 years. Applicant must be (1) a matriculate; (2) have value of assets below Rs2mn; (3) not be a defaulter of any bank; (4) jobless.

PSMC inline to significantly benefit from the scheme

We believe if short listed, the yellow cab scheme can lift PSMC 2014E/15F earnings by 13%/20% as earnings impact is likely to be spread over its Jan-Dec reporting period. On a standalone basis, our back-of-the-envelope working suggests annualized earnings impact of ~Rs10/share. However underutilization of the scheme due to its size is a key risk. We believe higher production will also improve margins going forward, as fixed costs is likely to be spread over higher number of units sold.

Reiterate ‘Buy’ on PSMC with a higher conviction

We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating (with a higher conviction) on PSMC with a Target Price of Rs240, where potential yellow cab scheme can lift our Target Price to Rs285 – a potential upside of 26%. Incorporating the potential of yellow cab scheme, PSMC trades at 2015F P/E of 5.9x vs. market’s 2015F P/E of 8.5x and Indus Motors FY15F P/E of 8.9x.

JS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: EHM on June 17, 2014, 03:53:54 PM
itni depressed market mein bhi lock nahi khula.... :shoaby:

in sha Allah more to come.  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 17, 2014, 06:13:02 PM
 
The Bell
 
PSMC: A major catalyst on the horizon
A major catalyst on the horizon…

The Punjab Government in its provincial budget FY15 has re-launched the Yellow Cab Scheme with an allocation of PKR25bn. The amount would be used to subsidize 50,000 units. FY12 taxi scheme resulted in 9/14% of incremental volumes over the average of 103,242 units in the preceding five years. The scheme resulted in earnings accretion of 2.8x/23% in CY11 and CY12.

…to expedite growth in bottom-line
PSMC remains the prime contender for the scheme as it enjoys hegemony in the <1300cc category. The growth in volumes will also supplement expansion in gross margins as well with fixed cost absorption over a larger volume base. We highlight possible EPS impact of PK3.7-9.5 for CY14 and PKR5.5-14.2 for CY15 from the scheme.
Imported part supplies would be a bottleneck
Our discussion with the company suggests that Punjab Government has not yet approached them regarding the feasibility and distribution of the units under the scheme. The company has a total annual capacity of assembling 150,000 units however supply of imported parts remains the key constraint for Mehran and Bolan.

Investment case
We have not yet incorporated any volume addition from the scheme as we await further clarity on supply of imports and the actual units under the scheme. Incase this scheme is utilized completely (40% units are utilized in CY14 and remaining in CY15), our PT for PSMC would increase by 28% to PKR290/sh.

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 17, 2014, 06:26:29 PM
Punjab Cab Scheme to lead to further earnings growth
 

The provincial government of Punjab, in its annual budget, has yet again announced a new yellow cab scheme for 2014-15. From 20k cars witnessed in the previous scheme, which included 60% Mehran and 40% Bolan models, the number of cars in this scheme has now been raised to 50k. The scheme bodes well for Pak Suzuki (PSMC), and we expect that its sales level in CY14 & CY15 will see a significant jump to almost return to the 2012 level of 96k cars, as opposed to just 77k cars in 2013.

Being conservative, we have assumed 35k units, since bulk of Punjab governments revenue are linked to the ambitious Federal tax collection target (under the NFC formula), which may witness some slowdown. We project incremental units of 14k and 21k in CY14 & CY15, respectively. Key downside risk to our earnings will come if any price discount is offered by the company to secure the order. Since we expect the scheme to expire in CY15, our EPS for CY16 remains largely unchanged.

Incorporating the aforesaid in our model, shows that PSMC is trading at an attractive CY14 P/E of 6.2x, and we maintain our Buy stance.

taurus
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: EHM on June 17, 2014, 06:31:09 PM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 17, 2014, 08:30:06 PM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!

yes im agreed most of houses recommending its TP 290 for mid long term.
But i will prefer to book short term gains above 250 . wil rebuy again if i ever have chance.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: small bbs on June 17, 2014, 08:55:15 PM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!

yes im agreed most of houses recommending its TP 290 for mid long term.
But i will prefer to book short term gains above 250 . wil rebuy again if i ever have chance.

MZ you will not get a chance to get it again. INSHALLAH yeh Rs.280 per ja ker hi break legaye ga.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 17, 2014, 08:58:20 PM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!

yes im agreed most of houses recommending its TP 290 for mid long term.
But i will prefer to book short term gains above 250 . wil rebuy again if i ever have chance.

MZ you will not get a chance to get it again. INSHALLAH yeh Rs.280 per ja ker hi break legaye ga.

 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: small bbs on June 17, 2014, 09:04:09 PM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!

yes im agreed most of houses recommending its TP 290 for mid long term.
But i will prefer to book short term gains above 250 . wil rebuy again if i ever have chance.

MZ you will not get a chance to get it again. INSHALLAH yeh Rs.280 per ja ker hi break legaye ga.

 :fingerscrossed1:

can u please explain what do you mean by cross finger...... it stands for good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: EHM on June 18, 2014, 10:48:24 AM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!

yes im agreed most of houses recommending its TP 290 for mid long term.
But i will prefer to book short term gains above 250 . wil rebuy again if i ever have chance.

Excellent MZ bhai......!!  :biggthumpup:

i booked profit around 250. rebuy kahan pe karna chahiyay?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Owais on June 18, 2014, 05:36:46 PM
on what price we should buy?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 18, 2014, 08:10:56 PM
@MZ ....... most of the houses are giving 290+ TP. Do you agree? please share ur thoughts. Thanks!

yes im agreed most of houses recommending its TP 290 for mid long term.
But i will prefer to book short term gains above 250 . wil rebuy again if i ever have chance.

Excellent MZ bhai......!!  :biggthumpup:

i booked profit around 250. rebuy kahan pe karna chahiyay?


around 230 and add upto 220 provided if there is no major correction in market.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 19, 2014, 11:25:49 AM
holding PSMC 6 month hold will earn INSHLLAH almost 80% capital gain
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on June 19, 2014, 12:13:45 PM
holding PSMC 6 month hold will earn INSHLLAH almost 80% capital gain

240 is not bad price for long term i.e 6 months
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 19, 2014, 09:27:22 PM
We will discuss the impact of recently announced federal and provincial budget on Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) and will also discuss the performance of the company in 1QCY14 in our today’s morning briefing.

Taxi Scheme to give a boost

The Punjab Government in the provincial budget has announced to a launch a Taxi scheme which would boost the performance of PSMC as it is the only beneficiary of this scheme. The government has allocated Rs25 billion for the scheme which consist of 50,000 units. Keeping in view the prices of the Mehran and Bolan models, we expect that the government allocation to be increased to Rs30 billion.

Other budgetary measures impact positive

Overall budget was positive for the sector where the decisions which would have impact on the performance of the company are; cut in corporate tax rate by 1% and surge in duty and taxes on imported used vehicles by 10% would also bode well for the company as well as for overall sector.

Well performed so far

On back of higher gross margin, the earning of the company grew by 22% YoY in 1QCY14 to Rs443 million (EPS: Rs 5.38) versus Rs 321 million (EPS: Rs 3.90) in 1QCY13. The gross margins improved on higher sales revenue due to increased prices and rise in volumes, while depreciation of JPY and USD against Pak Rupee and lower cost of sales too resulted has a positive impact on margins. The gross margin of the company in 1QCY14 calculated at 7.1% while it was 4.74% in 1QCY13.

WE Research
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: wasi on June 19, 2014, 11:09:11 PM
No Mehran, only Bolan and Ravi
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ali Shaikh on June 24, 2014, 12:43:07 PM
Please guide me... abhi is me new entry leni chaiye????
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sfaisalhassan on June 24, 2014, 01:56:31 PM
 :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm: :rtfm:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on June 24, 2014, 06:41:50 PM
Read on pakwheels that cng kits import by manufacturers may be allowed. Reasoning is that smuggled kits are dangerous... Very positive for psmc if true
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 24, 2014, 06:50:58 PM
PSMC ideally placed
Our preferred play in the sector remains Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC),
where our Target Price shoots to Rs285 if the yellow cab scheme is incorporated.
We also believe PSMC can be a primary beneficiary of any relaxation on import of
CNG kits by the government for local auto assemblers as sales of lower-end cars
are more elastic to availability of CNG variants. Meanwhile, we maintain ‘Hold’ on
Indus Motor Company (INDU) as we believe the positives are largely priced-in in
INDU stock price.

JS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 25, 2014, 07:38:09 PM
In our today’s Morning Call, we highlight upon our revised investment case on Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC). We have revised our Dec’14 Target Price to PKR 283.7/share on account of:

a) Benefits of additional sales through the Punjab Taxi Scheme

b) Healthy sales forecast for newly introduced Wagon-R variants (estimated monthly sales to average 450 units from Jun’14 onwards)

c) Stable PKR/JPY parity outlook

Recommendation

Currently our stance on the scrip is ‘Hold’ offering a +7.1% upside from current levels. The scrip is currently trading at a forward CY14, P/BV of 1.2x and P/E of 9.36x. The scrip has currently rallied considerably by +47% since the last 3 months in the process out-performing the benchmark KSE-100 index by +39%.

PSMC expected to be major beneficiary of Punjab Taxi Scheme FY15

In the recently announced Punjab FY15 Budget, the Government of Punjab has allocated PKR 25bn to continue its yellow cab scheme. Historically, the scheme has benefited below 800cc segment, on which PSMC has a clear standing compared to INDU and HCAR.

In our view, PSMC’s variants Mehran and Bolan will be the prime product beneficiary of this scheme. Moreover, as historically it has been, the total budget allocation in these two particular variants is estimated to be in the ratio of 60:40. Based on the current prices of the two variants and assuming similar ratio of allocated amount we estimate that in FY15, PSMC would sell an additional 24,000 & 14,400 units of Mehran and Bolan.

There are indications that the units may be raised to 50,000 for the scheme. However in our base case scenario, we have assumed the entire PKR 25bn (~38,400units) in FY15 allocated to the scheme is utilized by Government of Punjab. Scheme is expected to come by Jul-14 onwards, henceforth we expect PSMC sales to pick up in 2HCY14 & 1HCY15, where we estimate an annualized bottom-line impact of PKR 8.7/share (+45%) & PKR 9.2/share (+43%) for PSMC.  We have revised our earnings to PKR 28.3/share & PKR 30.5/share in CY14/15 respectively.

Stable outlook in the PKR/JPY parity

PKR has gained by 6.5% against JPY since Mar-14 and has stabilized since then. We do not foresee any major spike in PKR/JPY parity going forward, which coupled with improved production is expected to expand gross margins to 7.2% in CY14 from 6.8% a year back.

Higher payout unlikely even with PKR 60.67 cash per share as of 1QCY14

As per 1QCY14 accounts, PSMC’s cash stood at a massive PKR 4.99bn (PKR 60.67/share), even with such healthy cash-flows currently, we rule out any hefty payout as per company’s policy and historical average payout ratio of around 20%.

 ahl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Owais on June 27, 2014, 12:58:47 AM
inshAllah PSMC will touch 400! what do you think? :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: small bbs on June 27, 2014, 02:02:51 AM
inshAllah PSMC will touch 400! what do you think? :good

I guess someone in the forum already gave this price and i am holding it...... no worry :D
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 01, 2014, 02:38:01 PM
holding PSMC 6 month hold will earn INSHLLAH almost 80% capital gain

240 is not bad price for long term i.e 6 months

I hope people will enjoying the ride MASHALLAH. kia hua ager TELE or Byco nay BARA dukh dia. PSMC nay kuch dard kam ker dia. INSHLALLAH agli bari PPL ki hay

Ho gia cap. I bought  @ 220 mazay hi mazay hain MASHALLAH
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 02, 2014, 03:25:15 PM
Volume growth & margins uptrend
to drive earnings
Reinitiating with an Outperform rating and TP of PKR323.5/sh
We reinitiate coverage on Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. (PSMC), Pakistan’s largest auto assembler
with market share (M/S) of 56%, with an Outperform rating and Dec-14 TP of PKR323.5, implying
decent upside of 13%. We believe strong price momentum in PSMC is likely to continue as market
fully gauges expected earnings uptrend. We base our rating on 1) visible volume uptrend, 2)
recovery in margins and 3) additional cash build-up.
Volume uptrend looks more visible
We believe PMSC looks set to leverage its dominance in the low-mid categories passenger (100% M/S)
and LCV segments (81% M/S) with potential 3-yr volume CAGR of 12%. Three key pillars will likely
deliver volume growth in our view,
#1-Yellow cab scheme: A key game changer for PSMC is the recent re- launch of yellow cab scheme
with a total outlay of PKR25bn targeting distribution of 50,000 vehicles over the next three years.
Though selected local assembler is not announced yet, we see higher chances of PSMC to benefit from
the scheme.
#2-Encouraging response on new model launch: PSMC’s recent launch of new model, Wagon R in 1000cc
category in April’14, has received encouraging response, averaging 400units/mth. Wagon R is helping
PSMC to fill the gap left open post withdrawal of Alto, while providing a better alternative to
company’s 15yrs old , wide-space 1000cc model, Cultus. We believe Wagon R would capture 15-25% M/S
in 1000cc category by CY16.
#3-Huge potential in motorcycle segment: Motorcycle industry is undergoing a paradigm shift with a
focus diverting towards higher cc units, triggered mainly by rising middle class income base. We
foresee PSMC to witness growth in motorcycle sales from the changing consumer preferences as it
remains one of the largest players in higher cc segment (100cc+ units).
Margin looks set to recover
Volumetric uptrend coupled with declining primary cost would drive margins beyond 1HCY14, in our
view. Just to recall, PSMC witnessed margins growth from 2.4% in CY10 to 4% in CY12 on the back of
earlier yellow cab scheme. We believe CY14-16 would be the recovery period for the company.
Sighting strong volumetric growth and lower steel prices, we expect gross margins are likely to
touch 8-10% by CY16 from current level of 7%.
Additional cash generation may increase the payout
Going forward, attractive margins would result in strong cashflow generation (PKR2.7-3.2bn CFO)
which may be channeled towards higher payout.
Attractive valuation
With CY14 P/E of 7.5x and 13% upside to DCF valuation, we see strong support for our Outperform
rating. Key catalysts in our view are (1) strong

earnings growth, (2) growing surplus cash and (3) favorable JPY outlook.
Key risks
Key downside risks to our thesis are (1) fluctuations in steel prices, (2) JPY appreciation against
PKR        ny
decrease in CBU duty, (4) increase in age limit of imported used cars, and (5) slowdown in economy.

FS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: adnysam on July 08, 2014, 09:53:35 AM
Seniors can you please let me know why PSMC moving down side
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 08, 2014, 01:27:59 PM
Seniors can you please let me know why PSMC moving down side

jab 290 per gia tha people always wait that may be it will go to 300, you know always mkt go against public thoughts, that was the best time to sell. I also sold my all holding, will buy again but later. Now I am buying OGDC. INSHALLAH rally is due for both PPL , and OGDC
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Afzal on July 09, 2014, 10:02:40 AM
PPL rally pata ni kb ani...hum to hold ker ker bore ho gaey
 :down:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 09, 2014, 10:23:37 AM
PPL rally pata ni kb ani...hum to hold ker ker bore ho gaey
 :down:

BBs people kay patience ka imtehan lay rehay hain. ALLAH (SBWT) saber kernay waloan kay sath hain. 1 and half month wait kerlain. ab to waisay bi result season sooroh ho reha hay.
PTI ka million march bhi phus phus hona soroh ho gai hay. Now they are saying that we are doing JALSA instead of million march
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Manzar Hayat on July 09, 2014, 11:01:56 AM
AOA anyone can tell me about at which price pak suzuki motor shares should buy........
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 09, 2014, 11:13:44 AM
AOA anyone can tell me about at which price pak suzuki motor shares should buy........

265-270
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Owais on July 09, 2014, 02:22:04 PM
InshAllah it will go up and hit 300 :good :good :s1: :s1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 09, 2014, 03:35:46 PM
InshAllah it will go up and hit 300 :good :good :s1: :s1:

but not now, close to half year result, or after result
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Owais on July 10, 2014, 12:13:56 AM
InshAllah it will go up and hit 300 :good :good :s1: :s1:

but not now, close to half year result, or after result

whats the date ov result?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on July 10, 2014, 04:51:27 AM
InshAllah it will go up and hit 300 :good :good :s1: :s1:

but not now, close to half year result, or after result

whats the date ov result?

Result season yet to come, last year announced on 19th august
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on July 11, 2014, 02:34:27 PM
Ban lifted on CNG kits’ import, good times for PSMC?

 

ECC's (Economic Coordination Committee) decision to impose a ban on the import of CNG related equipment (kits, cylinders and parts) in Dec'11 was followed by dampened sales performance of the local automakers. The industry's average monthly sales diminished by 4% to ~12k units in the post ban scenario as compared to ~13k units prior the ban. Amongst different players this move proved to be severely damaging for PSMC (Pak Suzuki Motor Company) sales as YoY sales growth of the aforementioned player was marginalized on average by -ve1%YoY after the ban from an average of +ve9%YoY before the ban as PSMC provides the widest array of factor fitted CNG vehicles. That said, with ECC recently lifting the ban of CNG related imports good times are likely to roll out for PSMC. Though we feel the company will not be able to fully recover its market share but a marked improvement in volumes cannot be ruled out. In this regard, we expect average monthly volumes for PSMC to grow up by 5% to 7.5k units, which will improve our CY14 and CY15 sales (volumetric) forecast by 3% and 5%, respectively. At current price PSMC is trading at its CY14E P/E of 5.3x and offers upside of 3.5% to our TP of PkR277 which implies a Neutral stance.

 

Sales volumes and impact on earnings: As mentioned above that PSMC provides the widest array of factory fitted CNG vehicles and its sales were seriously impacted as a result of ban on CNG kit, which was imposed in Dec'11. However, since the GoP has recently lifted this ban we assume the company will reinitiate its drive to produce vehicles with factory fitted CNG kits. In this regard, we believe volumes of the company can grow by 3%YoY and 5%YoY in CY14F (EPS Impact: +ve2%) and CY15F (EPS impact: +ve4%), respectively. We have run an earnings sensitivity showcasing the impact on PSMC’s earnings if volumetric sales were to augment by: i) 5% on average from CY14F-CY16F will impact average EPS by +ve4.2%, ii) 7.5% increase in volumes on average will lead to earnings  increase of 6.2% on average and iii) 10% increase in volumes will bolster earnings by an average 8.2%. However, at present our TP does not incorporate any benefit the company may enjoy due to ECC's decision to remove the ban on import of CNG related equipment.

 

Investment Perspective: We had upgraded our investment case on PSMC to Buy on Jun 16'14 and since then the stock has gained 19% and going forward, we suggest Buying on dips. At current levels, PSMC trades at CY14F PER of 5.3x and offers upside of 3.5% to our TP of PkR277 which implies a Neutral stance.

AKD
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Owais on July 16, 2014, 12:51:32 PM
275 ke buying 292 ke selling  :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: maza agea :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby: :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: adnysam on July 16, 2014, 01:43:57 PM
 :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: 273 ke buying and 282.25 ke selling today  huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu huhu
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: adnysam on July 17, 2014, 10:15:12 AM
 :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:
Aur HCar sell karnay per bhi
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on July 28, 2014, 09:28:35 AM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/056130-1.gif)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 28, 2014, 05:31:20 PM
Apna Rozgar Scheme to add PKR 25/share in PSMC CY15 profitability

Further clarity emerges on Punjab’s Government “Apna Rozgar Scheme”, where Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) stands as a clear winner. In addition, the company is expected to announce its 1HCY14 result on 9th Aug-14, we estimate company to post earnings of PKR 7.2/share for 2QCY14, up +34% QoQ.

PSMC to stand as a major beneficiary of “Apna Rozgar Scheme”

As per its KSE announcement today, PSMC has entered into an agreement with The Bank of Punjab (BOP) for sale of 50,000 units of its variants Ravi and Bolan with supply coming in as early as Oct-14 extending up to Oct-15. To recall, the government of Punjab has already announced an allocation of PKR 25bn for Taxi Scheme in FY15 Budget.

For CY14, we assumed a sale of almost 12,500 units (considering a 50:50 ratio between the two variants) and 37,500 in CY15. This has an annualized bottom-line impact of PKR 9.5/share & PKR 24.84/share in CY14 and CY15, respectively, taking PSMC earnings to PKR 32.7/share & PKR 49.9/share in CY14E/15F.

2QCY14’s EPS expected at PKR 7.21/share +34% QoQ

PSMC is scheduled to announce its 1HCY14 earnings on 9th Aug-14, we expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 7.2/share in 2QCY14 taking 1HCY14’s earnings to PKR 12.6/share. This +34% QoQ expected growth in earnings is attributed to higher gross margins on account of a) PKR/JPY appreciation in Mar’14 and b) sales of 1,621 units in 2QCY14 of recently launched new variant ‘Wagon R’ in Apr-14. On 1HCY14E the company is expected to post a 10%YoY earnings decline, owing to one-off gain worth PKR 274.5mn or PKR 3.0/share, realized on the sale of land of its old motor bikes factory in 2QCY13 with its reflection in other operating income as a result.

 

PSMC (PKR mn)   2QCY14E   1QCY14A   QoQ   1HCY14E   1HCY13A   YoY
Revenue   14,886   13,695   9%   28,581   26,880   6%
Gross Profit   1,320   970   36%   2,290   1,577   45%
Gross Margins (%)   8.9%   7.1%   8.0%   5.9%
Other Operating Income   125   146   -14%   272   564   -52%
Profit After Tax (PAT)   594   443   34%   1,036   1,157   -10%
EPS – (PKR)   7.21   5.38   12.59   14.05
Sales – No. of Units   4QFY14A   3QFY14A   QoQ   FY14A   FY13A   YoY
Swift   1,423   1,291   10%   2,714   2,973   -9%
Mehran   8,197   7,611   8%   15,808   17,604   -10%
Liana   38   36   6%   74   54   37%
Cultus   3,607   3,820   -6%   7,427   7,115   4%
Wagon R   1,621   -   nm   1,621   -   nm
Bolan   3,825   3,705   3%   7,530   7,376   2%
Ravi   3,383   3,559   -5%   6,942   6,204   12%
Total   22,094   20,022   10%   42,116   41,326   2%
Source: Company Accounts, PAMA & AHL Research – nm (Not Measurable)   
 

Recommendation

We have revised our Dec’14 TP on PSMC by +7.8% to PKR 305.6/share incorporating “Apna Microfinance Scheme” impact in CY14 and CY15, with our stance on the scrip is ‘Hold’ offering a +8.8% upside from current levels. The scrip is currently trading at a forward CY14, P/BV of 1.27x and P/E of 8.6x. To reiterate, the scrip has currently rallied considerably by +40% since the last 3 months in the process out-performing the benchmark KSE-100 index by +27.5%.

AHL
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 06, 2014, 10:30:59 PM
PSMC: 1HCY14 Result Preview
 
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY14 financial result on Aug 9'14. We expect the company to record NPAT of PkR1,262mn (EPS: PkR15.33) in 1HCY14 vs. NPAT of PkR1,156mn (EPS: PkR14.05) in 1HCY13, translating into a growth of 9%YoY. Adjusted for the sale of property last year, projected normalized growth comes to 43%YoY. While sales volumes grew by just 2%YoY to 42,116 units in 1HCY14 (despite launch of the "WagonR" in the previous quarter), the 6.3%CYTD and 3.1%CYTD appreciation of the PkR vs. the US$ and JPY, respectively, is expected to sharply uplift gross margins. Specifically, we expect GMs to expand by 2.7ppt YoY to 8.6% in 1HCY14 vs. 5.9% in 1HCY13. In 2QCY14 alone, we expect the company to post NPAT of PkR819mn (EPS: PkR9.95), up by a robust 85%QoQ growth partly due to 10%QoQ volume growth (to 22,094 units) but largely due to margin expansion. PSMC has gained 82%CYTD, outperforming the broader market by 65% in the same period. At current levels, our target price PkR277/share implies a Neutral stance. However we will look to revisit our investment case post 1HCY14 result.

AKD
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jahangir on August 07, 2014, 12:24:13 AM
200-210/ :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 07, 2014, 12:29:53 AM
200-210/ :skeptic:

what ? are u saying after result it will come to this level 200-210  :o
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 07, 2014, 08:33:23 PM
The board of directors of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is scheduled to meet on August 09, 2014 to announce its 2QCY14 result. In today’s Value Seeker, we present PSMC result preview coupled with our recommendation on the scrip.

PAT to grow by 78%QoQ in 2QCY14

PSMC is estimated to post a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs787mn (EPS Rs9.56) in 2QCY14 as compared to a net profit of Rs443mn in the last quarter, registering a massive rise of 78%QoQ. Such expectations are backed by an increase in sales volume by 10% to 22k units due to launch of Wagon-R resulting top-line to grow by 13%QoQ to Rs15bn.

Gross Margin is also expected to increase by 171bps to 8.8% owing to stable PKR during the outgoing period. The better sales volume would also enlarge other income by ~13%QoQ to Rs165mn as advances from customers improve bank deposits.

1HCY14: Profitability to scale up by 6% to Rs1.2bn

On a half yearly basis, PSMC is expected to post PAT of Rs1,230mn (EPS Rs14.94) in 1HCY14, registering a modest increase of 6%YoY as compared to the same period last year. The increase in the company’s bottom-line is due to the better sales volume, where the same is expected to post a rise of 2%YoY to 42k units as compared to 41k units in the same period last year.

The introduction of Wagon R in the outgoing quarter is likely to fuel up the top-line by 8%YoY to Rs29bn. However, other income of the company is expected to shrink by 45%YoY as Rs97mn adjustment increased the other income last year. No interim dividend is expected to be announced by the board.

Outlook and Recommendation

The company would take advantage of the yellow cab taxi scheme announced by Punjab Government. The gov’t placed an order of 50k vehicles including Mehran and Bolan which is expected to bode well for the profitability of the company moving forward. Currently, the scrip is trading at PE of 8.8X on CY14 earnings estimate while offering a dividend yield of 3%. We recommend ‘Hold’ on the scrip with Dec’14 TP of Rs290.

InvwstCap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 08, 2014, 05:50:43 PM
 
Result Preview
 
PSMC: 2QCY14 earnings expected to clock in at PKR7.3/sh
Result expectation
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY14 financial results on 11th August, 2014. We expect the company to post EPS of PKR12.6 for the period down 10% YoY. EPS for 2QCY14 is estimated at PKR7.3, down 25% YoY.
Top line to grow by 14%
The topline is estimated to grow by 14% YoY during 2QCY14 on the back of 9% YoY increase in volumes augmented by addition of Wagon R into the product portfolio.
Higher gross margin…
Gross Margins are expected to clock in at 8.0% for the quarter, up 98bps YoY primarily due to PKR appreciation of ~4.5% YoY against JPY during the 2QCY14.
… To be offset by normalized other income and tax rate
Other income is expected to decline by 60% YoY during 2QCY14, which is attributed to non-recurring gain on sale of land that amounted to PKR274mn (PKR3.3/share) in 2QCY13. Taxes are expected to normalize at the statutory rate of 34% while the same clocked in at 9% in 2QCY13.
Investment Case
We have rolled forward our PT for PSMC to Jun-15 and have incorporated Punjab taxi scheme in our estimates and arrive at a PT of PKR290/sh (?29%). We believe that the impact of Yellow Cab scheme has been priced in and maintain our HOLD stance on the stock. 

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: adnysam on August 11, 2014, 09:52:26 AM
What lag gai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 11, 2014, 10:23:31 AM
govt gai to Taxi scheme bi gai , PSMC bi gai  :bangin:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 11, 2014, 10:52:00 AM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/056301.pdf

eps 7.19
below consensus ...  :thumbsdown_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 11, 2014, 04:27:33 PM
PSMC 1HCY14 result review| EPS Rs12.58

Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) announced financial results for 1HCY14. For the period in consider Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) posted 10.5% YoY lower net profit of Rs 1.03bn (EPS Rs 12.58) against Rs 1.15bn (EPS Rs 14.05) reported in same period last year (SPLY).

Net sales during 1HCY14 have increased by 8.3%YoY to Rs 29.1bn against Rs 26.8bn reported in same period last year. Lower cost of production mainly due to decrease in commodity prices and appreciated PKR against JPY has expended company's GP margin by 180bps. This resulted to 41% growth in gross profit.

Due to higher rate of inflation and increasing utility charges company's operating expenses has also increased by 42%.

Decrease in other income by 47.4% has badly hit the bottom-line. Rs 296.3mn was reported as other income during 1HCY14 against Rs 563.7bn reported in SPLY.

Due to availability of fund in term of down payment company was less required to borrow fund for its operating activity, hence incurred very low finance cost of Rs 5.5mn.

In the bottom line higher taxation has distributed the flow of good earnings and ended with 10.5% YoY lower PAT of Rs 1.03bn against Rs 1.15bn reported in SPLY.

 

Future outlook

A good turnaround can be expected in PSMC in future once it starts delivering vehicles to Punjab government under Apna Rozgar Scheme. To recall, recently as per news paper report PSMS has got order for 50,000 cabs to be delivered in current fiscal year. We expect a good turnaround in upcoming 12 months. We maintain our HOLD stance.

scs
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 11, 2014, 06:32:45 PM
Pakistan Alert: (Aug-11-2014)
PSMC: 1H2014 EPS Rs12.6, down 10.5%
Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) announced 1H2014 profits of Rs1.03bn (EPS Rs12.6) which is down 10.5% against Rs1.16bn (EPS Rs14.1) in the same period last year.
During 1H2014, revenues increased to Rs29.1bn from Rs26.9bn in 1H2013, up 8.3%YoY. However, volumetric sales increased to 42,116 units, up 1.9%, compared to 41,326 units in 1H2013. Gross margins improved by 177bps to 7.6% primarily due to lesser increase in cost of sales, on account of PKR appreciation, compared to increase in sales revenues.
Other income declined massively by 47% to Rs296mn compared to Rs564mn in 1H2013. Distribution cost increased by 70.5% to Rs410mn while administrative cost increased by 22% to Rs537mn in 1H2014. Furthermore, total tax of the company also surged massively by 175% to Rs424mn compared to Rs154mn because company shifted from turnover tax last year to corporate tax now.
During the 2Q2014, sales of the company increased by 12.5%QoQ to Rs15.4bn while gross profits increased to Rs1.3bn, up 29.2%. As a result, company reported profits of Rs592mn (EPS Rs7.2) compared to Rs443mn (EPS Rs5.4) in 1Q2014.
The result is in line with our expectation and we maintain ‘Hold’ on the scrip at current levels.

topline
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 12, 2014, 09:52:10 AM
PSMC ki dugdagi baj gai............if NS govt stays, can regain its share price loss. Otherwise; I see its share price around 180-200
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jamalakhter on August 12, 2014, 12:44:44 PM
govt gai to Taxi scheme bi gai , PSMC bi gai  :bangin:
[/quot  e]              I K is on suicidal  mission not only for himself but also pakistan ,he is a despearate and frustrated person
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 12, 2014, 06:52:43 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/4652:psmc-eyeing-yellow-cabs/?date=2014-08-12
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 13, 2014, 09:10:02 AM
Pak Suzuki Company Limited (KSE ticker: PSMC) was established as a joint venture between Pakistan Automobile Corporation (PACO) and the Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC), Japan. Incorporated as a public limited company in August 1983, the company began commercial operations in January 1984. Under the Government's privatisation policy, the Company was privatised and placed under the Japanese management in September 1992. At the time of privatisation, SMC increased its equity from 25% to 40%. Subsequently, SMC progressively increased its equity to 73.09% by purchasing remaining shares from PACO.

Listed on both Karachi and Lahore stock exchanges, PSMC has a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. The product line-up includes cars, small vans, pickups, cargo vans and motorcycles. Overall, the Company holds more than 50 percent market share. PSMC's plant is located at Bin Qasim in Karachi.

The Company posits to have up to 72 percent of local content in its vehicles, supported by a strong network of vendors. PSMC boasts to have the largest dealers' network offering 3S (sales, service and spare parts) facilities across Pakistan. The first line of factory-fitted CNG vehicles was also introduced in Pakistan by PSMC. Aside from the local market, PSMC is also engaged in export of Suzuki Ravi pickups and Liana components to Bangladesh and Europe. Further, the Company also deals in 2-stroke and 4-stroke outboard motors. PSMC is governed by a board of seven members with Hirofumi Nagao as Chairman and CEO. Yosuke Yamada currently serves as the CFO of the Company.

INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Local car sales remained stagnated for FY14 compared with last year. In the passenger car category, local sales were subdued largely from the decline in Toyota, down by 10 percent. On the other hand, car sales of PSMC and Atlas Honda witnessed growth of 2.6 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively. The growth and decline in Honda and Toyota, respectively, was expected; the share of the former rose through the year while consumers held back on sales of the latter in anticipation of its newer model.

PSMC's market shares, however, fell slightly during FY14. In the 1,300cc-and-above engine category, the Company's share fell from 10.45 percent to a little over 9 percent, while the Company also lost marginally in the 800cc-1,000cc category. Aside from the competition it faces from imported refurbished vehicles, PSMC continues to be the largest market player in the 800cc-1,000cc and 1,000cc car categories. In fact, it is the only local player in the two-engine categories in terms of local automobile assemblers, with both Hyundai Santro and Daihatsu Coure having gone out of production. In the pick-ups category, Suzuki Ravi's market share remained the same as last year's, at around 70 percent. In the motorcycles and three-wheel category, the Company's market share rose slightly from 2.3 percent to 3.1 percent during FY14.

FINANCIAL REVIEW 1H CY14 PSMC's volumes increased by 1.9 percent year on year during 1H CY14, corresponding to a 10.3 percent increase during the second quarter of the current year. This resulted largely from the sales of the new WagonR which replaces Suzuki Alto in the market.

With increased sales, gross margins of the Company registered an increase of 50.3 percent and 34.5 percent during 1H CY14 and 2Q CY14, respectively, compared with corresponding periods of the previous year. However, on account of higher payables, the Company's earnings registered a decline of 10.4 percent during the first half of the current year. The decline in earnings was more pronounced during the second quarter, coming down by 25.5 percent. This resulted from substantial increases in taxation and distribution costs, which rose by a whopping 2,650 percent and 70.5 percent, respectively, compared with 1H CY13. During the second quarter of CY14, the two payables had increased by 45.8 and 154 percent, respectively, compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.

Administrative expenses also registered an increase of 21.9 percent during the first half of the current year, leading to a 60 percent increase in operating costs for the Company. Further, other operating income came down by 55.2 percent compared with last year. However, there has also been a marked reduction in finance costs, which declined by 89.4 percent.

Accounting for the increase in provision for workers' profit participation fund and workers' welfare fund, profit before taxation (PBT) for the Company registered an increase of 11.3 percent. However, during the second quarter of the current year, PBT experienced a decline of 9.6 percent. Overall, PSMC's net margins declined by 10.5 percent during 1H CY14, leading to an EPS of Rs 12.6. This compares with an EPS of Rs 14 during the corresponding period of last year.

FUTURE OUTLOOK PSMC is likely to experience a positive outlook for the current year on account of two notable developments. The Federal Budget FY15 holds positive scoops for the Company with the imposition of 10 percent increase in duties and taxes on imported used vehicles which might have hindered the Company's sales in the 800-1,000cc and 1,000cc categories. Further, the reduction in corporate tax rate and appreciation in the value of rupee against yen will also contribute towards improving the Company's bottom line. In addition, local volumes will get a boost with the Yellow Cab Scheme announced by the Government of Punjab whereby PSMC is most likely to win the bid for the scheme.

==========================================================================
PSMC Financials
==========================================================================Half year ended            Quarter ended
==========================================================================
Rs (mn)                      30-Jun-14   30-Jun-13   30-Jun-14   30-Jun-13
==========================================================================
Turnover                      29,106.8    26,880.2    15,412.1    13,274.9
Cost of sales               (26,883.6)  (25,400.5)  (14,158.8)  (12,342.6)
Gross profit                  2,223.2     1,479.7     1,253.8        932.3
Distribution cost              (410.3)     (240.7)     (257.6)     (176.7)
Administrative expenses        (537.2)     (440.8)     (297.1)     (238.4)
1,275.7                         798.2       698.7       517.2
Finance cost                     (5.5)      (51.8)       (2.8)      (16.1)
Other operating income          296.3       661.1       150.0        434.9
1,566.5                       1,407.5       845.9       936.1
Workers' profitparticipation fund             (78.3)      (70.4)      (42.3)      (46.8)
Workers' welfare fund           (29.8)      (26.7)      (16.1)      (17.8)
(108.1)                         (97.1)      (58.4)      (64.6)
Profit before taxation        1,458.4     1,310.4       787.5        871.5
Taxation                       (423.5)      (15.4)     (195.4)      (76.9)
Net profit for the period     1,034.9     1,156.4       592.1        794.6
EPS-Basic (Rs)                   12.6        14.1         7.2          9.7
==========================================================================
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 25, 2014, 10:18:30 AM
http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Suzuki_2014_Half_Yearly.pdf
lost 200 mio on motorcycle operations
 :o
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 04, 2014, 06:16:28 PM
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: TP Revision
Following release of PSMC's 1HCY14 report (EPS: PkR12.57; -10%YoY on reported basis, +17%YoY on normalized basis) as well as clarity on the Punjab taxi scheme (Bolan & Ravi; 25% in CY14F/75% in CY15F), we adjust our forecasts to reflect a greater profitability impact next year as opposed to CY14F. Together with revised currency projections, we now expect PSMC to report 42%YoY growth this year followed by 57%YoY growth in CY15F. This results in a revised target price of PkR311/share. PSMC has shed 10% from its CYTD high of PkR292.25 but a settling political environment amidst swift growth prospects should provide space for a share price uptick. PSMC trades at a CY15F P/E of 5.25x (ex-taxi scheme: 9.85x) where scrip has traded at a 10yr average P/E of 11.5x. Our revised target price offers 18.4% upside, with political volatility the main risk to thesis.                  .
1HCY14 Result Review: PSMC posted NPAT of PkR1.04bn (EPS: PkR12.57) in 1HCY14, down 10%YoY. However, adjusting for the sale of property last year brings normalized growth to 17%YoY. In this regard, the company sold 42,229 units (+2%YoY) in 1HCY14 which coupled with 6.0%YoY higher AUP (Average Unit Price) led the topline increase of 8%YoY to PkR29bn. Profitability was boosted by a stronger PkR which recorded appreciation of 6.7% vs. the US$ and 3.0% vs. the JPY in 1HCY14. As a result, 1HCY14 GMs clocked in at 7.6% vs. 5.9% in 1HCY13. In 2QCY14 alone, PSMC posted NPAT of PkR592mn (EPS: PkR7.19), up by a robust 34%QoQ on a 10%QoQ increase in sales and a 1ppt uptick in GM to 8.1%.
Clarity on taxi scheme: Following receipt of detailed 1HCY14 accounts, we take the opportunity to revisit our investment case for PSMC particularly as the company has provided clarity on the Apna Rozgar Scheme (Punjab taxi scheme). In contrast to the previous taxi scheme (circa CY11/12) which incorporated 12k Mehran units and 8k Bolan units, the new scheme comprises of 25k units of Ravi and Bolan each. Vehicle supply is scheduled from Oct'14-Oct'15. This leads us to shift a greater profitability impact onto CY15F. Together with revised currency assumptions, we see GMs sustaining in the 8%+ range across the next 2yrs. As a result, we now see CY14F NPAT at PkR2.6bn (EPS: PkR31.83; +42%YoY) and CY15F NPAT at PkR4.1bn (EPS: PkR50.00; +57%YoY).
Investment perspective: While PSMC has gained 71%CYTD, it has shed 10% from its CYTD high with recent weakness coinciding with the rise in political noise. Considering the political environment appears to be settling, PSMC appears poised for a swift share price uptick. PSMC trades at a CY15F P/E of 5.25x (ex-taxi scheme: 9.85x) which stacks up well against a 10yr average P/E of 11.5x. Our revised target price of PkR311/share offers 18.4% upside and implies an Accumulate stance. Key risk to thesis emanates from political volatility and any disruption in the Apna Rozgar Scheme.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 05, 2014, 08:36:17 PM
PSMC earnings trimmed post 1H2014 review, ‘Buy’ intact

Post review of 1H2014 detailed accounts of Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC), we cut our earnings forecast for PSMC by 12/7% for 2014E/15F.

In tandem with our earnings revision, we trim our Target Price for PSMC to Rs300 (Rs310 earlier). That said, we maintain our ‘Buy’ rating on PSMC given cab scheme led 44% YoY expected earnings growth for 2015F.

PSMC trades at an undemanding 2015F P/E of 5.9x (recurring 2015F P/E of 7.8x) vis-à-vis market’s 2015F P/E of 8.6x.

In 2Q2014, PSMC’s earnings clocked in 34% QoQ higher at Rs7.19/share, led by (1) 10% QoQ up-tick in unit sales and (2) 105bp improvement in gross margin.

However, 2Q2014 earnings were down 25% YoY owing to a one-time gain on sale of property recorded last year. On a recurring basis, earnings increased by 8% YoY.

Earnings tweaked down; ‘Buy’ intact with TP of Rs300

Post review of 1H2014 detailed accounts of Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC),  we tweak down our earnings forecast for PSMC by 12%/7% for 2014E/2015F given lower-than-expected gross margin in 2Q2014. In tandem with our earnings revision, we trim our Target Price for PSMC to Rs300 from Rs310 previously. That said, we maintain our ‘Buy’ rating on PSMC. We expect PSMC earnings to post an impressive earnings growth of 44% YoY in 2015F on the back on Punjab government’s ‘Apna Rozgar Scheme’. Recall that PSMC has entered into an agreement with Bank of Punjab for sale of 50k units of Suzuki Bolan and Suzuki Ravi under this scheme. These vehicles will be supplied from Oct 2014 to Oct 2015. PSMC trades at an undemanding 2015F P/E of 5.9x vis-à-vis market’s  2015F P/E of 8.6x; where we estimate PSMC recurring 2015F P/E at 7.8x.

JS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 12, 2014, 01:31:26 PM
http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=12_09_2014_010_004
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 25, 2014, 07:22:45 PM
PSMC earnings revised, maintained ‘Hold’
Pak Suzuki (PSMC) being the largest local car assembler with 57% market share and dominant player in 800-1000cc category is the major beneficiary of scheme announced by Govt. of Punjab in its FY15 provincial budget. The stock has rallied 34% since June 2014 after the announcement of this scheme. Earlier, it was announced that 50,000 units will be delivered from Oct 2014 to Oct 2015 but now after the floods and political chaos in the country, we believe delivery of yellow cabs will start from 1QFY15. We have revised our earnings forecast of PSMC and believe the company will post 2014E/2015F EPS of Rs25.6/39.7 (previously Rs28.6/33.3). We recommend ‘Hold’ as the stock has rallied too much too soon.
To recall, on Aug 29, 2011, Punjab govt. had given order to PSMC under “Self Employment Scheme for Educated Unemployed Youth” to provide 20,000 units within eight months. PSMC trades at 2014E PE of 11.4x and 2015F PE of 7.4x.

topline
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on September 25, 2014, 08:51:11 PM
270 me mila games
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 26, 2014, 08:49:40 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): Taxi scheme & falling JPY; driving returns

We upward revise our target price for PSMC to PKR391/sh factoring in the Punjab taxi scheme announced by the Punjab government under FY15 Budget. In this regard, the Punjab government has allocated PKR25bn for distribution of 50k units (25k Bolan and 25k Ravi). Apart from the taxi scheme itself, the company is also benefitting from the depreciating JPY against PKR (3.3% FYTD) where we expect further depreciation till year end since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) needs to meet its quantitative targets. However, the trickle down impact of the aforementioned triggers hinges upon the political stability in Pakistan as the inability of the government to carry out reforms and projects will post significant doubt over i) the taxi scheme and ii) trigger a possible run on the PKR, negating the impact of JPY weakness.

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rashi on September 27, 2014, 12:05:55 PM
taxi scheme news has already been accomodated when it went from 200 to 300, how 391 possible BMA,
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 10, 2014, 09:21:47 AM
300 ka qareeb lay lo, phr nahi milay ga, ab is bari hay INSHALLAH
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 10, 2014, 09:25:23 AM
300 ka qareeb lay lo, phr nahi milay ga, ab is bari hay INSHALLAH

Jaldi kero bhaio lay lo
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 10, 2014, 10:37:02 AM
MASHALLAH  :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 10, 2014, 10:40:14 AM
300 ka qareeb lay lo, phr nahi milay ga, ab is bari hay INSHALLAH

Jaldi kero bhaio lay lo

 KIS KIS NAY LIYA...............JIS JIS NAY LIYA   :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 10, 2014, 10:44:21 AM
300 ka qareeb lay lo, phr nahi milay ga, ab is bari hay INSHALLAH

Jaldi kero bhaio lay lo

 KIS KIS NAY LIYA...............JIS JIS NAY LIYA   :biggthumpup:

Yellow Cab chal pari    :shoaby:  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: JF on October 10, 2014, 11:32:02 AM
soon 350+
because HCAR already on too high and near and INDUS are too away from him

So PSMC race start
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 13, 2014, 09:38:27 AM
MASHALAH another CAP   :thumbsup_anim:  :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 14, 2014, 09:41:01 AM
sold 3000@ 333, now I am totally out from auto
GAIL @7.19 anf DFML @10.08 sold yesterday
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: salaara579 on October 17, 2014, 10:26:30 PM
such a bad day for PSMC. any reason or due to overall mkt pressure
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 18, 2014, 11:36:06 AM
Don't panic hold it u get another chance to sell at higher rate in future
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: wasi on October 18, 2014, 05:48:36 PM
bahi stay away. Units  may reduce from 50 K to 20 K for yellow cab scheme.  :rtfm:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 19, 2014, 02:43:31 PM
Hold
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: salaara579 on October 19, 2014, 02:59:32 PM
Don't panic hold it u get another chance to sell at higher rate in future

Thanks I m holding it 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 19, 2014, 03:03:16 PM
Don't be panic if shares price came down to 290 then average hopefully if anything Bad not happensbn kse u get another chance to sell at higher rates but do profit taking when market rise
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 22, 2014, 05:53:13 PM
Don't panic hold it u get another chance to sell at higher rate in future
  good show today
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 23, 2014, 04:49:19 PM
PSMC: 9MCY14 EPS expected at PKR18.2
We expect Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) to post 9MCY14 earnings of PKR18.2/sh, down 2% YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is expected to clock in at PKR5.64/sh, up 25% YoY. 

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 26, 2014, 02:15:57 PM
Best buy between 275-285
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Koolfire on October 29, 2014, 09:47:01 PM


Eps 19.57 vs 18.56 sply 9 months
Eps 6.99  vs 4.51 sply 3 months
http://kse.com.pk/newsattachment/059751.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 30, 2014, 07:31:19 AM
http://tribune.com.pk/story/783173/corporate-results-pak-suzukis-profit-up-5-2/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: wasi on October 30, 2014, 08:50:30 AM
Decision has been made not to reduce units. now 50K units and advertisement will be in newspapers today or tomorrow.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 30, 2014, 05:40:39 PM
Don't be panic if shares price came down to 290 then average hopefully if anything Bad not happensbn kse u get another chance to sell at higher rates but do profit taking when market rise
  good cap today
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on October 31, 2014, 08:13:58 PM
Again cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on November 06, 2014, 08:17:49 PM
Cap o cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 18, 2014, 06:40:12 PM
AKD Daily
PSMC: Further upside - Upgraded to Accumulate


Japanese Yen continued its downward slide against major currencies, to now be down by 11%CYTD versus US$ to touch its seven year low levels of 116.3 and meanwhile shedding 13%CYTD vs. the PkR. This development has positives for the entire auto sector as cost pressures eased off, resulting in margin expansion. In this regard, the listed auto sector has shown robust price performance gaining a massive 137%CYTD (PSMC: 135%CYTD, INDU: 160%CYTD and HCAR: 435%CYTD). While the JPY has been the prime reason behind substantial earnings growth, we feel lower steel prices internationally have further added to the positivity. We revisit our investment case for PSMC where our Jun'15 TP now stands at PkR395/share after incorporating for higher than expected weakness in Yen and steel prices, implying an Accumulate stance. In terms of upcoming developments, we flag the next auto policy as the key checkpoint.
 
JPY weakness could sustain: The Japanese economy has recently fallen into recession in 1QFY15. With the target to increase consumer spending and reach an inflation level of 2% clearly slipping away, the need for an even bolder stimulus program becomes prominent. In this backdrop, we expect the JPY to continue depreciating (currently at a 7yr low) further, assisting the growth in margins of local OEMs.
 
Margins expansion: Factors such as swifter than expected depreciation in JPY coupled with the dip in international steel prices are expected to bode well for the sector that has seen margins expanding sharply in 1QFY15 to 10.6% from 8.4% in 1QFY14. In this regard, while gross margins for PSMC stand at 9.2% in 1QFY15/3QCY14 vs. 8.1% in the previous quarter, we believe the margins have more room to grow as the JPY continues to weaken (CY15F margins at 10.7% against 8.9% initially). Resultantly, our earnings estimates have gone up by an average 28% across the investment horizon.
 
Investment perspective: Having gained 135%CYTD and outperforming the broader market by 110%, PSMC's run in the market could continue. While the Punjab Rozgar Scheme provides a much needed kick to volumes (CY15F sales volumes at 91.7k units), the continued dip in JPY along with recent slump in steel prices are factors that keep our positivity for the stock intact. At our revised TP of PkR395/share, we have an Accumulate stance on PSMC where the stock is trading at a forward PER of 5.9x. We highlight the upcoming auto policy as a major development to look out for.
.
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Owais on November 19, 2014, 12:37:06 AM
AKD Daily
PSMC: Further upside - Upgraded to Accumulate


Japanese Yen continued its downward slide against major currencies, to now be down by 11%CYTD versus US$ to touch its seven year low levels of 116.3 and meanwhile shedding 13%CYTD vs. the PkR. This development has positives for the entire auto sector as cost pressures eased off, resulting in margin expansion. In this regard, the listed auto sector has shown robust price performance gaining a massive 137%CYTD (PSMC: 135%CYTD, INDU: 160%CYTD and HCAR: 435%CYTD). While the JPY has been the prime reason behind substantial earnings growth, we feel lower steel prices internationally have further added to the positivity. We revisit our investment case for PSMC where our Jun'15 TP now stands at PkR395/share after incorporating for higher than expected weakness in Yen and steel prices, implying an Accumulate stance. In terms of upcoming developments, we flag the next auto policy as the key checkpoint.
 
JPY weakness could sustain: The Japanese economy has recently fallen into recession in 1QFY15. With the target to increase consumer spending and reach an inflation level of 2% clearly slipping away, the need for an even bolder stimulus program becomes prominent. In this backdrop, we expect the JPY to continue depreciating (currently at a 7yr low) further, assisting the growth in margins of local OEMs.
 
Margins expansion: Factors such as swifter than expected depreciation in JPY coupled with the dip in international steel prices are expected to bode well for the sector that has seen margins expanding sharply in 1QFY15 to 10.6% from 8.4% in 1QFY14. In this regard, while gross margins for PSMC stand at 9.2% in 1QFY15/3QCY14 vs. 8.1% in the previous quarter, we believe the margins have more room to grow as the JPY continues to weaken (CY15F margins at 10.7% against 8.9% initially). Resultantly, our earnings estimates have gone up by an average 28% across the investment horizon.
 
Investment perspective: Having gained 135%CYTD and outperforming the broader market by 110%, PSMC's run in the market could continue. While the Punjab Rozgar Scheme provides a much needed kick to volumes (CY15F sales volumes at 91.7k units), the continued dip in JPY along with recent slump in steel prices are factors that keep our positivity for the stock intact. At our revised TP of PkR395/share, we have an Accumulate stance on PSMC where the stock is trading at a forward PER of 5.9x. We highlight the upcoming auto policy as a major development to look out for.
.



TP 395 :tongue: :tongue: :tongue:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ksenewb on November 19, 2014, 01:14:37 AM
AKD Daily
PSMC: Further upside - Upgraded to Accumulate


Japanese Yen continued its downward slide against major currencies, to now be down by 11%CYTD versus US$ to touch its seven year low levels of 116.3 and meanwhile shedding 13%CYTD vs. the PkR. This development has positives for the entire auto sector as cost pressures eased off, resulting in margin expansion. In this regard, the listed auto sector has shown robust price performance gaining a massive 137%CYTD (PSMC: 135%CYTD, INDU: 160%CYTD and HCAR: 435%CYTD). While the JPY has been the prime reason behind substantial earnings growth, we feel lower steel prices internationally have further added to the positivity. We revisit our investment case for PSMC where our Jun'15 TP now stands at PkR395/share after incorporating for higher than expected weakness in Yen and steel prices, implying an Accumulate stance. In terms of upcoming developments, we flag the next auto policy as the key checkpoint.
 
JPY weakness could sustain: The Japanese economy has recently fallen into recession in 1QFY15. With the target to increase consumer spending and reach an inflation level of 2% clearly slipping away, the need for an even bolder stimulus program becomes prominent. In this backdrop, we expect the JPY to continue depreciating (currently at a 7yr low) further, assisting the growth in margins of local OEMs.
 
Margins expansion: Factors such as swifter than expected depreciation in JPY coupled with the dip in international steel prices are expected to bode well for the sector that has seen margins expanding sharply in 1QFY15 to 10.6% from 8.4% in 1QFY14. In this regard, while gross margins for PSMC stand at 9.2% in 1QFY15/3QCY14 vs. 8.1% in the previous quarter, we believe the margins have more room to grow as the JPY continues to weaken (CY15F margins at 10.7% against 8.9% initially). Resultantly, our earnings estimates have gone up by an average 28% across the investment horizon.
 
Investment perspective: Having gained 135%CYTD and outperforming the broader market by 110%, PSMC's run in the market could continue. While the Punjab Rozgar Scheme provides a much needed kick to volumes (CY15F sales volumes at 91.7k units), the continued dip in JPY along with recent slump in steel prices are factors that keep our positivity for the stock intact. At our revised TP of PkR395/share, we have an Accumulate stance on PSMC where the stock is trading at a forward PER of 5.9x. We highlight the upcoming auto policy as a major development to look out for.
.

what a shit research report.. lol
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rana27 on November 20, 2014, 09:39:44 PM
Sold in panic , but rebuy it after 30 nov
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Arsalan on December 18, 2014, 06:46:47 PM
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I6-2tEOZPUA/VJLYwf4dRZI/AAAAAAAAAL4/AL0bppO_N3s/s1600/psmc%2Bhammer.png)

lovely hammer with good volumes, trend change?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ksenewb on December 18, 2014, 08:10:51 PM
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I6-2tEOZPUA/VJLYwf4dRZI/AAAAAAAAAL4/AL0bppO_N3s/s1600/psmc%2Bhammer.png)

lovely hammer with good volumes, trend change?

I was wondering the same.. but I would see how the share progresses tomorrow before jumping in.. This could be a false breakout.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: akbar.aqil on February 03, 2015, 05:56:18 PM
PSMC's result was to come out on 2nd Feb. Where is it?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 12, 2015, 11:15:37 AM
Kizashi : A sign of great inventory losses to come (http://epaper.dawn.com/Advt.php?StoryImage=12_02_2015_003_007)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 16, 2015, 07:02:42 PM
 
Result Preview
 
PSMC: Rozgar scheme to keep the stock in limelight despite lofty valuations
Result announcement
Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its full year CY14 financial results on 18th March, 2015. We expect the company to post EPS of PKR24.11, up 7% YoY. 4QCY14 earnings are estimated at PKR4.54/sh, up 16% YoY but down 35% QoQ. However, excluding one off gains booked in 2QCY13 on sale of land, CY14 earnings are expected to grow by 26% YoY basis. We also expect the company to announce final cash dividend of PKR5.0/sh along with the results.
Margins to turn weak on strengthening USD and JPY in 3Q
Even though gross margins are estimated to rise by 0.54pp on a YoY basis, we expect significant decline of 2.3pp on QoQ basis. With estimated one quarter lagged impact from forex movement, both USD (+4.3%) and JPY (+2.5%) strengthened during 3Q which will likely weigh down margins in 4Q. Top line of the company is expected to rise by 4% during the quarter on the back of 7% increase in volumes with incremental growth of 5% coming from Wagon R addition during the year.
Robust year of margins and volumes ahead…
Volumes are expected to spike up significantly during CY15 largely due Apna Rozgar scheme which has now been properly initiated last month with PSMC dispatching 2,580 units to Bank of Punjab. While margins are also expected to remain robust going forward owing to favorable exchange outlook with recent JPY depreciation to augment margins in 1HCY15.
…but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals
We, however believe that current market valuations of the scrip have run ahead of fundamentals with the market fully pricing in the positives but not incorporating any potential downsides from possible 1) age limit relaxation for imported vehicles 2) price cuts to hold back margin accretion 3) and regulatory risks emanating from ADPII.
We thus maintain our underweight stance on the scrip with Dec-15 PT of PKR377/sh, offering a potential downside of 14% to last closing.

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on March 21, 2015, 04:28:01 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/999:all/5280:psmc-sales-stoic-but-profits-still-mount/?date=2015-03-19
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 24, 2015, 01:28:34 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/065501.pdf

11.5 v 5.38
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: syeduzair on April 24, 2015, 02:29:24 PM
UL  :biggthumpup: :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 24, 2015, 10:13:19 PM
Pakistan Topline Alert: (April 24, 2015)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 1Q2015 EPS Rs11.5 (In line with expectations)

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 1Q2015 earnings of Rs946mn (EPS Rs11.5) against Rs443mn (EPS Rs5.4) in the same quarter last year. This result was in line with market consensus estimates.
Key takeaways
Revenue of the company posted a growth of 43% YoY to Rs19.6bn owing to 55% YoY volumetric growth. Company sold 30,950 units in 1Q2015 compared to 20,022 units in the corresponding period last year. It is important to note that, 30,950 units vehicles sold at a discount to the Govt. of Punjab, under taxi scheme.
Gross margins of the company improved by 401bps to 11.1% in 1Q2015 versus 7.1% in the same quarter last year. We attribute this improvement to favorable exchange rate of Pak Rupee (PKR) against both US dollar (US$) and Japanese Yen (JPY). Just to highlight, PKR appreciated by 16% against JPY and 2% against USD in 1Q2015 versus same quarter last year. Thus, gross profit surged by 125% to Rs2.2bn in 1Q2015 compared to Rs970mn in 1Q2014.
Distribution cost of the company surged by 229% YoY to Rs503mn. We attribute this increase to the launch of Kizashi, Wagon-R, Motor boats etc.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, revenue of the company also witnessed an impressive growth of 56% whereas, gross margins improved by 426bps from 6.8% in 4Q2014.
Bottom-line earnings of the company surged by 204% QoQ to Rs443 mainly due to volumetric growth of 66% and favorable exchange rates.
We maintain our ‘Hold’ stance on the scrip which is trading at 2015E and 2016F PE of 8.1x and 10.9x.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nadeemkhaliq on April 25, 2015, 04:14:43 PM
Excellent result
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on April 27, 2015, 11:12:29 AM
bought psmc 422.02  :clap1: :clap1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: syeduzair on April 27, 2015, 01:22:50 PM
bought psmc 422.02  :clap1: :clap1:

bhai humne to bech b dia 423 pe...386 ka lia tha wednesday ko ... :dunno:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on April 27, 2015, 02:36:22 PM
acha kiya ap nay per abhi picture baqi hai :D
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: syeduzair on April 27, 2015, 02:40:41 PM
acha kiya ap nay per abhi picture baqi hai :D

zayeda lalach buri bala hai  :s1: AGTL n or 2,3 stocks mai zayeda lalach ki wajase poora profit khatam karchuka hun apna pehle..is liye ab ehtiat kar raha hun  :D
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on April 27, 2015, 02:45:15 PM
mein b hamesha target se 1 ya 2 rs pehle us share ko quit ker deta hon so far this strategy is 80% successful  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: syeduzair on April 27, 2015, 03:29:02 PM
last 5 min mai dobara lock
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on April 27, 2015, 03:30:31 PM
upper lock  :shoaby:
today 3 shares of mine hit upper lock
psmc ghgl atrl
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on April 27, 2015, 03:31:53 PM
Alhamdulilah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on May 14, 2015, 06:00:39 PM
 
The Bell
 
PSMC: Higher distribution costs to offset margin accretion

Result announcement
Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) recently announced its 1QCY15 financial results. The company posted earnings of PKR11.50/sh, up 114% YoY and 204% QoQ basis. While overall earnings were in line with our expectations of PKR11.2/sh, higher than estimated distribution expenses (owing to change in company’s pricing policy) somewhat countervailed the impact of margin expansion (+4.0pp YoY and +4.3pp QoQ) witnessed during the quarter.
Top line expanded by 43% YoY
Company recorded steep volumetric growth of 55% during the quarter largely on the back of ‘Rozgar Scheme’ initiation (Bolan+96% YoY; Ravi+116% YoY) coupled with strong growth in Mehran variant (+26% YoY) and additional 1,632 units from Wagon R sales. However top line of the company increased by 43% owing to slight reduction in prices during CY14 (~-0.5%-1.5% on average) and PKR40k discounts offered to units under ‘Rozgar Scheme’.
Margins strengthened on the back of higher utilization and favorable JPY…
Gross margins of the company during the quarter clocked in at 11.1%, posting a sharp spike of 4.0pp YoY and 4.3pp QoQ. Margin expansion was primarily attributable to steep depreciation of JPY (~10% on average) during 4QCY14. Furthermore, higher capacity utilization which stood at 75% during the quarter under review against 53% in SPLY resulting from additional Bolan and Ravi units dispatched under ‘Rozgar Scheme’ (totaling 7,727 units), resulted in lower fixed costs per unit which further bolstered margins of the company.
…but change in freight policy ballooned distribution costs
However, expansion in gross margins was diluted by significantly higher distribution expense during the quarter, registering at PKR503mn, up 2.3x YoY and 2.2x QoQ. Higher distribution expense was on account of change in company’s policy where the current prices are now ex-dealership (from previous ex-factory), effective from 1st Jan 2015. Subsequently, freight charges for transporting vehicles from factory to dealerships will now be borne by the company (previously charged to the customers). Current upcountry freight charges range from 10k to 15k per car depending upon the location of the dealership.
Persistently higher distribution expense to offset margin accretion
Following higher than estimated gross margins for the company in 1QCY15, we raise our margin assumptions by 1-2% across our earnings projection. However, higher distribution expense henceforth will likely offset any benefit from margin expansion.     
The policy change by the company came on the heels of steep fall in JPY and stable USD coupled with plummeting oil prices during 4QCY14 which prompted the company to partially pass on the impact by absorbing relatively  lower freight charges (lower POL prices) instead of slashing prices of its variant.
Investment case; reiterate HOLD
We have slightly tweaked our estimates incorporating extended timeline of the taxi scheme while higher distribution expense cancels out our raised margin forecast leaving our earnings estimate fairly intact. Our Dec-15 PT of PKR386/sh (+0.5%), offers a total potential downside of 5% to last closing price.

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on June 14, 2015, 12:02:25 AM
 :good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Zamid on June 14, 2015, 12:08:10 AM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on June 14, 2015, 12:10:47 AM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??

hear once agian budget speech of khatoon khaazana of punjab
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Zamid on June 14, 2015, 12:16:17 AM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??

hear once agian budget speech of khatoon khaazana of punjab
Oh Yeah. Province Budget... Laoooo tou hoga phr...  :biggthumpup:  :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on June 14, 2015, 12:19:06 AM
correct me if i am not wrong
25,000 new cars will be given by govt of punjab under rozgar scheme
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Zamid on June 14, 2015, 12:29:00 AM
correct me if i am not wrong
25,000 new cars will be given by govt of punjab under rozgar scheme
But they already ordered to PSMC few months ago. Right now i don't think so there is new order.  :dunno:  What you say k ab bhi laoo ho sakta hy kiya?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on June 14, 2015, 12:41:13 AM
correct me if i am not wrong
25,000 new cars will be given by govt of punjab under rozgar scheme
But they already ordered to PSMC few months ago. Right now i don't think so there is new order.  :dunno:  What you say k ab bhi laoo ho sakta hy kiya?

i mnow but they will get more orders
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on June 14, 2015, 03:37:09 PM
strong fundamentals junior like me even had a lot of profit in it
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on June 29, 2015, 03:04:16 PM
by on dip
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mstabanipk on August 05, 2015, 10:26:33 PM
PSMC BOARD MEEDTIN 07 AUG-15
1QT EPS 11.70
LAST YEAR HALF YEAR EPS 12.70
WHAT EXPECTED TILL RESULT
TARGET.......
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ST on August 06, 2015, 12:06:33 AM
Read a report from a brokerage house that EPS of 17 is expected for 2Q15...Gross margins have been projected to increase to 13.8%...Should cross 470 if this is the case.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 06, 2015, 06:32:02 PM
PSMC: 1HCY15 EPS expected at PKR25.2; 2QCY15 EPS of PKR13.7
Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) is scheduled to announce its 1H results tomorrow. We expect the company to post earnings of PKR13.7/sh in 2Q, up 90% YoY and 19% QoQ. Cumulative 1H earnings are expected to double to PKR25.2/sh. The company’s topline in 2Q is expected to grow by 26% YoY, primarily due to incremental sales coming from Ravi and Bolan under Taxi scheme. Resultantly, distribution cost is expected to jack up by 68% YoY. We estimate gross margins to increase to 12.9% in 2Q, up by 4.8pp YoY because of higher utilization levels and favorable JPY/PKR parity. However, due to imposition of super tax @3%, we are expecting PSMC to book an additional amount of PKR78mn in taxes in 2Q (EPS impact: PKR0.95/sh).

elixir
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on August 07, 2015, 11:47:46 AM
seniors kahan tak ja sakta hai kindly guide
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: DK on August 07, 2015, 11:56:47 AM
seniors kahan tak ja sakta hai kindly guide
aik bohat bara plot twist howa hai.... if its true than there is no stopping it. posted it on auto sector.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on August 07, 2015, 04:39:24 PM
can any senior tell me the figure where one should exit ??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: akbar.aqil on August 07, 2015, 05:12:36 PM
Hold it, December tak 900 ka hoga IA.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on August 07, 2015, 05:36:54 PM
ok thanks
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 07, 2015, 08:04:31 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 2Q2015 EPS Rs17.9 (above expectations)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 2Q2015 earnings of Rs1.5bn (EPS Rs17.9) against Rs0.6bn (EPS Rs7.2) in the same quarter last year. This result was above market consensus estimates.
Key takeaways
In 2Q2015, revenue of the company posted an increase of 32% YoY to Rs20.4bn, owing to 46% YoY volumetric growth due to the start of Punjab Govt. Taxi scheme. The company sold 32,228 units in 2Q2015 compared to 22,094 units in 2Q2014.
Gross margins of the company improved by 621bps to 14.3% in 2Q2015 versus 8.1% in same period of last year. We attribute this improvement to the 14.6% appreciation of Pak Rupee (PKR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Thus, gross profits surged by 133% to Rs2.9bn in 2Q2015 as compared to Rs1.3bn in 2Q2014.
Other income in 2Q2015 increased by 97% YoY, as the company earned interest on advances received from customers owing to strong car demand.
On QoQ basis, revenue of the company posted an increase of 4% QoQ to Rs20.4bn, owing to 4% QoQ volumetric growth. In 1Q2015 company sold 30,950 units.
Gross margins of the company improved by 325bps to 14.3% in 2Q2015 versus 11.1% in 1Q2015. We attribute this improvement to stable exchange rate of Pak Rupee (PKR) against Japanese Yen (JPY) quarter on quarter.
In 1H2015, PSMC earnings stood at Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs29.4) versus Rs1.0bn (EPS 12.6) in same period of last year. Revenue increased by 27%, while gross margins improved by 511bps to 12.7% from 7.6% in 1H2014. PSMC sold 63,178 units in 1H2015 versus 42,116 units in 1H2014 – up by 50% YoY.
We maintain our ‘Hold’ on PSMC.

Topline
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 09, 2015, 05:12:30 PM
(http://puu.sh/juZlp/05724b671d.png)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ma on August 09, 2015, 08:00:32 PM
SBM Brother and senior members  recommendation plz
buy banti ha iss level pa?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Cheetah on August 09, 2015, 08:27:58 PM
SBM Brother and senior members  recommendation plz
buy banti ha iss level pa?
no.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on August 09, 2015, 10:38:38 PM
SBM Brother and senior members  recommendation plz
buy banti ha iss level pa?
no.

6 months tak hold kr sektay hain to buy banti hay
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: akbar.aqil on August 11, 2015, 01:35:39 PM
Cap laguen ge tu rukey ga nahi!! 470 I believe is a good place to accumulate as much as possible. I am planning to convert my 50% investment.... Lets see if I can get my portfolio to that situation!!!! It should be doubles as per the EPS yaar!!!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 22, 2015, 03:18:31 PM
looking at capex since previous model launch, new model launch looks imminent, maybe replacement for cultus in dec 2015 as 2016 model
as per pakwheels, its supposed to be this car
http://www.marutisuzuki.com/celerio.aspx

i hope its this
http://www.marutisuzuki.com/dzire.aspx
 and is priced between swift and city
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jaz on August 22, 2015, 05:20:01 PM
Suzuki has monopoly over ugliest looking cars  :D
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on August 31, 2015, 02:21:07 PM
is it a buy or sell any one?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on August 31, 2015, 04:20:30 PM
http://www.bmatoday.com/reports.asp?rpt=inf&cdte=8/6/2015
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on September 08, 2015, 10:58:59 AM
Margin is getting better as steel prices are going down sept quarter will also be a good one
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: value786 on September 10, 2015, 10:00:35 PM
How you brothers see Pak Suzuki ??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: value786 on September 12, 2015, 08:54:49 AM
???
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on September 12, 2015, 10:09:55 AM
???

good in medium term
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on September 12, 2015, 10:57:35 AM
???

good in medium term
nt enough upside....try to search for scrips with upside potential..... :thanks:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on September 12, 2015, 11:26:44 AM
???

good in medium term
nt enough upside....try to search for scrips with upside potential..... :thanks:

ISHALLAH we will see PSMC @ 600 in 4-6 months
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Adnan on September 12, 2015, 01:58:53 PM
???

good in medium term
nt enough upside....try to search for scrips with upside potential..... :thanks:

On what basis can you say that there is not enough upside? Have you seen the half year results or the recent sales figures?

Sales for 2 months of this Quarter are higher than whole of last Quarter. EPS for last Quarter was 17.91. If sales pattern continue which is very likely due to different schemes of Punjab Govt. , EPS for full year will be 60+ easily. Now you can work out the potential return in 6 months time just by taking in account PE multiples of the industry. Even conservative multiples of 9 can give you price of around 540 per share that is 30% return. That is good enough upside potential even after staying on very conservative side.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on September 12, 2015, 05:24:38 PM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??

lao hai bhai rakh kar pyar karo aur palo ...becauze peda karne wale se bara palne wala hota hai lolz..... :s1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on September 12, 2015, 08:15:47 PM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??

lao hai bhai rakh kar pyar karo aur palo ...becauze peda karne wale se bara palne wala hota hai lolz..... :s1:

Zia Bhai.............. mazrat kay sath............ jis nay peda kia......... wo hi palnay wala hay.............only ONE
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 14, 2015, 09:57:14 AM
http://epaper.dawn.com/Advt.php?StoryImage=14_09_2015_003_005

i wonder if these are the two models psmc had been working on  :laugh:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on September 17, 2015, 01:52:50 PM
Positive Factors

Steel Prices are going down - PSMC+
Punjab Taxi Scheme - PSMC+
Japnies Yen Depreciated - PSMC+
Interest Rate going down - PSMC & Industry +

Any Views?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rational.investor on September 18, 2015, 12:11:21 AM
^Agree with positives.

Negatives:
- PKR depreciation.
- Growth after tax scheme is over will be limited.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on September 18, 2015, 01:35:20 AM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??

men us sense men bilkul nahin keh raha tha..

lao hai bhai rakh kar pyar karo aur palo ...becauze peda karne wale se bara palne wala hota hai lolz..... :s1:

Zia Bhai.............. mazrat kay sath............ jis nay peda kia......... wo hi palnay wala hay.............only ONE
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on September 24, 2015, 02:11:41 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/brief-recordings/0:/1227319:pak-suzuki-motor-company/?date=2015-09-15
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 17, 2015, 11:54:59 AM
Normalized margins cap upside

Event
?  Where we foresee macro landscape to be conducive to PSMC’s growth,
Rupee depreciation and introduction of new players remain a risk, and thus cap
the upside. Possible Rupee depreciation and entry of new players may pose
threat to the sustainability to current margins. Nonetheless, we revise upward
our earnings estimates for CY15/16E by 33%/11% incorporating the current
purple patch. Besides, we also incorporate JPY depreciation of 3.5%for
CY15/16E in line with Macquarie Capital.

Impact
?  Volumetric assumption revised upward: PSMC has had a successful year
in the backdrop of the Taxi scheme initiated by the government which is
expected to continue till Feb’16 (earlier expectation till Jun’16). While the
scheme is expected to end in Feb-16, we foresee demand for Mehran and
Cultus to partially offset the dent to volumes. We believe PSMC would be a
major beneficiary of the increase in consumer financing , and expanding middle
class that accompanies economic growth. In line with this view, we increase our
volumetric assumption by an average of 10% for CY15/16E.
?  Changed currency dynamics jack earnings up: Furthermore, we have also
aligned our Rs/JPY parity assumption with that of our JV partners Macquarie
Capital. Subsequently we have assumed 3.5% depreciation in Rs/JPY for the
period CY15/16E. However, we highlight that possible Rs depreciation beyond
CY16 may pose threat to profitability which has forced us to take a view of
normalized margins.

?  Risks from new entrants:  Moreover, lack of clarity on AIDP II prevents us
from taking a favorable view on the scrip. As indicated by newsflow, government
intends to bring in new entrants. We believe entry of new players in the 800 &
1000 cc category may pose threat to its foothold in the segment.

Earning revision
?  We revise upward our CY15/16E earnings estimates by 33%/11%
respectively, incorporating 1) upward revision in volumes by an average of 10%
and 2) revised JPY depreciation of 3.5% for CY15/16E. We also roll forward our
valuation to Jun-16, and raise our TP to Rs427.6/sh.

Price catalyst
?  Jun-16 TP: Rs427.6/sh based on Discounted Cash flow Methodology.
?   Catalyst: 1) Continuation of Rozgar Scheme beyond FY16, and 2) greater
than expected demand.

Action & recommendation
?  While we view PSMC as benefitting from strong demand supplemented by
increased consumer financing, possible Rs depreciation and lack of clarity on
AIDP II holds from giving the scrip a favorable rating. Hence, we maintain our
‘Neutral’ stance on it. Note that continuation of Taxi scheme beyond Feb-16
may make a case for stance revisit.

fs
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 29, 2015, 09:58:45 AM
good result expected..........chances for cap INSHALLAH
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 29, 2015, 10:30:13 PM
good result expected..........chances for cap INSHALLAH

I guess I am the only person who is holding this Gold(untill rozgar scheme)   :biggthumpup:  :thumbsup_anim:  :clap1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on October 30, 2015, 12:53:43 AM
:good
LAO BHARLOoooooooo bahiyoo
Any News ??

men us sense men bilkul nahin keh raha tha..

lao hai bhai rakh kar pyar karo aur palo ...becauze peda karne wale se bara palne wala hota hai lolz..... :s1:

Zia Bhai.............. mazrat kay sath............ jis nay peda kia......... wo hi palnay wala hay.............only ONE

 :D ::) :tongue:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Loto or Photo on October 30, 2015, 09:10:35 AM
INSHALLAH aik or cap  :tongue:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on October 30, 2015, 10:06:21 AM
Now it should go above 500/share
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ejeeee6 on October 30, 2015, 02:58:26 PM
abhi tou neechey ka safar shuru ho gaya hey
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ZS on October 30, 2015, 03:37:14 PM
Why it is going down despite after such a excellent result??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on October 30, 2015, 11:42:26 PM
Why it is going down despite after such a excellent result??
Why it is going down despite after such a excellent result??

abhi tou neechey ka safar shuru ho gaya hey


 
?  :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on October 31, 2015, 01:46:45 PM
Why it is going down despite after such a excellent result??
Market always pre-empt. Uppish before the result was  due to expectation of good results. The news discounted & now price will tend to be normalized.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 01, 2015, 02:05:18 PM
KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company on Thursday announced better than expected profit of Rs1.82 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2015, up by a massive 216% from Rs576 million in the same period last year.

Earnings per share (EPS) improved to Rs22.1 compared to an EPS of Rs7.0 in the period under review. Topline Securities, in its report on Thursday, said the result was above market consensus estimates.

Pak Suzuki’s revenue grew by 78% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs21.2 billion in third quarter of 2015 (3Q2015) as the company sold 33,770 units in the third quarter (+98% YoY).

“We attribute this increase in volumes to the taxi scheme launched by the Punjab government in the provincial budget of fiscal year 2015,” the report added.

Gross profit improved substantially to Rs3.4 billion (+207% YoY) in 3Q2015 while gross margins rose by 670 basis points (bps) to 15.9% YoY.

“We mark this improvement to the fall in international steel prices and favorable exchange rate movement as the dollar and Pak rupee appreciated against Japanese yen by 16.6% YoY and 12.4% YoY, respectively.”

Other income grew by 119% YoY in 3Q2015, as the company earned interest on advances received from customers owing to a strong car demand.

Indus Motor’s profit up 159%

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s other auto sector company, Indus Motor, local affiliate of Toyota Japan, announced a profit-after-tax of Rs2.93 billion for the first quarter (Jul-Sep) of fiscal year 2015-16 (FY16), up 159% from Rs1.13 billion for the same period last year. The company’s production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCV) for the quarter stood at 14,922 units, up 49% compared to 9,998 units. Combined sales, comprising completely knocked-down (CKD) and completely built unit (CBU), grew by 49.8% at 14,948 units compared to 9,975 units in the corresponding period last year.

Overall sales revenue from CKD, CBU and spare parts business was recorded at Rs24.8 billion compared to Rs17.3 billion in the corresponding period last year. Based on the results, the Board of Directors announced an interim cash dividend of Rs20 per share.

The overall stimulus in the economy was spurred by government spending on infrastructure development and schemes such as the Punjab Government’s ‘Apna Rozgar’ which further contributed towards economic growth, according to IMC Chief Executive Officer Parvez Ghias.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 30th, 2015.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 01, 2015, 02:25:53 PM
looking at capex since previous model launch, new model launch looks imminent, maybe replacement for cultus in dec 2015 as 2016 model
as per pakwheels, its supposed to be this car
http://www.marutisuzuki.com/celerio.aspx

i hope its this
http://www.marutisuzuki.com/dzire.aspx
 and is priced between swift and city

1 Capital expenditure contracted for but not incurred amounted to Rs. 1,219.604 million (2014:
Rs.208.142 million)
http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/ThirdQurtAccount_2015.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 01, 2015, 03:27:28 PM
looking at capex since previous model launch, new model launch looks imminent, maybe replacement for cultus in dec 2015 as 2016 model
as per pakwheels, its supposed to be this car
http://www.marutisuzuki.com/celerio.aspx

i hope its this
http://www.marutisuzuki.com/dzire.aspx
 and is priced between swift and city

1 Capital expenditure contracted for but not incurred amounted to Rs. 1,219.604 million (2014:
Rs.208.142 million)
http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/ThirdQurtAccount_2015.pdf

I heard they are moving forward with their plans of Suzuki celerio
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 09, 2015, 03:40:12 PM
Future Outlook?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on November 09, 2015, 05:53:10 PM
Oct Sales will be good.

Steel prices gone down further
Impact of rise in US$ to PKR will be mitigated by US$ and JPY parity
I think this quarter also will be a good one
Hold Tight may be till 525

That is personal opinion!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on November 09, 2015, 06:17:16 PM
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=psmc:KAR
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 10, 2015, 10:47:56 AM
Oct Sales will be good.

Steel prices gone down further
Impact of rise in US$ to PKR will be mitigated by US$ and JPY parity
I think this quarter also will be a good one
Hold Tight may be till 525

That is personal opinion!



 :good  :thanks:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on November 10, 2015, 03:49:00 PM
http://wishstocks.com/2015/11/10/psmc-apna-rozgar-scheme-a-one%E2%80%90off-story-or-is-it/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on November 11, 2015, 01:22:52 PM
Excellent sale numbers
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 11, 2015, 02:53:01 PM
Autos: Auto sales (Car + LCVs) during 4MFY16 remained higher by 67% to 74.5k units compared to 44.6k units in the same period last year, according to the recent auto numbers released by PAMA (Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association).

This increase is on the back of improving macroeconomic indicators, continuous falling inflation and interest rates and progress in the law and order situation in the country.

Company wise data shows that sales of Pak Suzuki (PSMC) increased by 96%YoY from 23.5k units to 46.1k units during 4MFY16 primarily due to Taxi scheme while sales of Indus Motors (INDU) remained higher by 42%YoY to 20.2k units, mainly due to strong sales of new generation of Corolla. Moreover, Honda Cars (HCAR) sales also increased by 22%YoY to 8.1k units.

Pak Suzuki remained market leader in Cars and LCVs segment, sold 46.2k units during 4MFY16 compared to 23.5k during same period last year. Major factor for improved sales volume is due to sales of Suzuki Bolan and Suzuki Ravi to Bank of Punjab under “Apna Rozgar Scheme” of Government of Punjab. During 4MFY16, approx 16k units were sold under this scheme. If we exclude taxi scheme from PSMC’s 4MFY16 sales, company sales grew by impressive 24%.

Monthly statistics during October’15 shows that Auto sales (Cars+LCVs) are up by 7% to 19.7k units. Leading companies are INDU up by 10%MoM to 5.5k units; followed by PSMC with volumetric sales of 8%MoM to 12.3k units, while HCAR sales are down by 6%MoM to 1.9k units.

We maintain ’Over-Weight’ stance on Auto Sector at current levels.



 ’Over-Weight’ stance- means?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 11, 2015, 10:01:45 PM
AKD Daily
PSMC: More than a one-trick pony

Following on from the planned conclusion of the Punjab Rozgar Scheme and fading out of higher volumes complementing high margins (16% for 3QCY15), we believe organic growth prospects warrant revisiting of our investment case. We posit that, 1) improved GM's from depressed commodity inputs (cold rolles steel sheets down 36%/17% in CY15/FY15TD) countering any depreciation in PkR, 2) 109% increase in sales for 9MCY15 driven mainly by the Punjab Rozgar Scheme, apart from which, 31%/169%/49%YoY growth was witnessed in Cultus/Wagon R/Mehran sales reflecting an escalation in endogenous car sales and 3) presence on ancillary factors (monetary easing spurring credit growth, low fuel costs) spurring demand. However, risks emanate from external factors, including adverse currency movements and slowdown in demand side propellants. Additionally, we believe PSMC stands exposed to cost competitive entrants which may be induced to enter the local market upon passing of the Auto Development Policy II. Tweaking our estimates for earnings by 2.7%/3% for CY16F/17F and raising out De'16 TP for the scrip by 8% to PkR584/share, we re-iterate a bullish stance on the scrip.          .
Performance: PSMC has gained 28.8%/9.7% in CY15TD/FY16TD outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 21.9%/9.9% during the same periods. Weakness in steel prices and weakness in the Yen against PkR, has enabled GM/NM to rise from 9%/5% in 3QCY14 to 16%/9% in 3QCY15. 9MCY15 profits were up by 163%YoY as sales for Bolan (+124%YoY 16,895 units) & Ravi (+138% to 16,490 units) increased. PSMC has room for further re-rating with the follow through of higher volumes set to complement high margins.
Post 'Rozgar Scheme' dynamics: Updating out investment case for the OEM, we underpin our re-assessment on: 1) improved GM's from depressed commodity inputs (cold rolles steel sheets down 36%/17% in CY15/FY15TD) countering any depreciation in PkR, 2) 109% increase in sales for 9MCY15 driven mainly by the Punjab Rozgar Scheme, apart from which, 31%/169%/49%YoY growth was witnessed in Cultus/Wagon R/Mehran sales reflecting an escalation in endogenous car sales and 3) presence on ancillary factors (monetary easing spurring credit growth, low fuel costs) spurring demand. Ex-rozgar scheme, we expect sales for CY15F to clock in at 93.3K units, reflecting 16.1%YoY increase in sales which we expect to increase by a further 7%YoY going into CY16F.
Risks from AIDP II: Provisions regarding the newly minted Auto Development Policy may expose PSMC to the following: 1)change to auto import regulations where bulk of imports tend to be in the < 1000cc category, and 2) clauses favoring low cost new entrants, disrupting the dominance of PSMC in the below 1000CC passenger car segment.           .
Investment Perspective: Tweaking our estimates for earnings by 2.7%/3% for CY16F/17F and raising out De'16 TP for the scrip by 8% to PkR584/share, we re-iterate a bullish hypothesis on the scrip. Our liking for PSMC is based on fast-track growth prospects (5yr NPAT CAGR: 17%) coupled with un-stretched valuations. PSMC trades at a CY15F/16F P/E of 7.6x/11.4x. Our Dec'16 TP of PkR584/sh implies a Buy stance with an upside of 22%.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: momo on November 15, 2015, 01:14:46 AM
Good to buy? The Rozgar scheme was extended again this year, right? So the sales should hold up into CY16, right? Buy suggested?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 17, 2015, 08:40:29 AM
Good to buy? The Rozgar scheme was extended again this year, right? So the sales should hold up into CY16, right? Buy suggested?


Above query need to be entertained. 

 :thanks:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 17, 2015, 11:31:41 PM
Good to buy? The Rozgar scheme was extended again this year, right? So the sales should hold up into CY16, right? Buy suggested?


Above query need to be entertained. 

 :thanks:

till march 2016 as per analyst estimates
i am expecting new model launch after that ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: momo on November 18, 2015, 12:32:27 AM
Good to buy? The Rozgar scheme was extended again this year, right? So the sales should hold up into CY16, right? Buy suggested?


Above query need to be entertained. 

 :thanks:

till march 2016 as per analyst estimates
i am expecting new model launch after that ..

Yeah but that is for the scheme launched for the 2014-2015 fiscal year. There was a new scheme announced for the 2015-2016 year which hasn't kicked in yet. It's the old scheme that is carrying over to Feb/Mar-16.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 23, 2015, 09:01:23 AM
Any latest development?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on November 23, 2015, 02:09:31 PM
 :lazy2:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on December 04, 2015, 01:33:03 PM
:lazy2:


Moving lackluster. What should be strategy for PSMC at current mkt sentiments?

Any upcoming Trigger?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ak_share on December 11, 2015, 03:41:08 PM
Excellent Sales by PSMC.... should be capped today.... :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on December 11, 2015, 03:47:04 PM
Excellent Sales by PSMC.... should be capped today.... :good
what are ghnl sales numbers?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ak_share on December 11, 2015, 03:55:46 PM
pama.org.pk/statistical-information/sales-production/monthly-sales-production

Nissan Truck Sales/Prod is 54 for Nov'15
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on December 11, 2015, 04:05:46 PM
pama.org.pk/statistical-information/sales-production/monthly-sales-production

Nissan Truck Sales/Prod is 54 for Nov'15
:thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on December 11, 2015, 04:48:13 PM
pama.org.pk/statistical-information/sales-production/monthly-sales-production

Nissan Truck Sales/Prod is 54 for Nov'15
:thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on December 11, 2015, 10:45:46 PM
Excellent Sales by PSMC.... should be capped today.... :good


You mean on Monday?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Shahzadsaleem1 on December 14, 2015, 12:59:49 PM
Autos continue to shine amid improving macros

As oil prices remain downtrodden, this has helped economic recovery, with CPI at 1.85% YoY for 5MFY16, leading to higher disposable incomes, spurring consumption. Further, historic low interest rates have resulted in catalyzing auto financing, which we expect will pick up further in 2HFY16, with Jan-Jun typically being more fruitful for autos.



Exhibit: Auto Numbers Snapshot 

 

Nov-15
 

Oct-15
 

MoM
 

Nov-14
 

YoY
 

5MFY16
 

5MFY15
 

YoY
 

Passenger Cars + LCVs 

INDU 

5,516
 

5,460
 

1.0%
 

4,499
 

22.6%
 

25,743
 

18,786
 

37.0%
 

PSMC 

11,990
 

12,338
 

-2.8%
 

5,984
 

100.4%
 

58,098
 

29,456
 

97.2%
 

HCAR 

1,523
 

1,875
 

-18.8%
 

1,266
 

20.3%
 

9,582
 

7,888
 

21.5%
 

Trucks and Buses 

GHNL 

54
 

30
 

80.0%
 

36
 

50.0%
 

252
 

239
 

5.4%
 

GHNI 

101
 

101
 

0.0%
 

50
 

102.0%
 

485
 

341
 

42.2%
 

HINO 

238
 

238
 

0.0%
 

150
 

58.7%
 

1,087
 

654
 

66.2%
 

Bikes and Three Wheelers 

SAZEW 

1,286
 

1,402
 

-8.3%
 

1,052
 

22.2%
 

5,884
 

5,021
 

17.2%
 

ATLH 

70,002
 

70,010
 

0.0%
 

52,001
 

34.6%
 

328,763
 

247,149
 

33.0%
 

Tractors 

AGTL 

744
 

1,001
 

-25.7%
 

2,059
 

-63.9%
 

3,876
 

6,953
 

-44.3%
 

MTL 

1,421
 

1,329
 

6.9%
 

2,751
 

-48.3%
 

7,142
 

11,247
 

-36.5%
 

Source: PAMA, AHL Research 




Recommendation

We remain bullish on PSMC, with our Jun-16 TP of PKR 578/share, presenting an upside of 23.0% from Friday’s closing. Similarly, we have a ‘Buy’ recommendation on INDU with our Jun-16 TP of PKR 1,204/share, an upside of 18.6% from last closing.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on December 16, 2015, 11:03:26 AM
Any Positive Development?   :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on December 16, 2015, 11:49:56 AM
Any Positive Development?   :skeptic:

This one

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1010654/660-and-1600cc-variants-suzuki-considering-two-new-models-for-pakistan/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on December 16, 2015, 02:56:43 PM
tomorrow this share ll breach 52 weeks high of 493 so get ready for handsome ride
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on December 16, 2015, 05:38:49 PM
AKD Daily
PSMC: CAPEX Plans to Rev-Up Earnings

With news flows confirming the launch of new models, PSMC is expected to re-initiate customer driven growth prospects by 1) launching a 660cc passenger car model and 1,600cc SUV with accompanying CAPEX of ~US$110mn, 2) setting up a manufacturing plant for spare parts investing ~US$330mn in the project and 3) utilizing tax incentives on offer as part of the yet to be released ADP-II, in a bid to propel internally driven earnings growth. With the lapse of the Punjab Rozgar scheme (orders to be fulfilled by 1QCY16), PSMC is establishing a firm base to kick in a new phase of growth led by the 'new model effect'. Digging into past trends, the OEM has gradually been solidifying its base in the 800 and below 1000cc segment (57% of total units sold in 11MCY15 vs. 45% in CY06), while facing declining sales mix in the 1000cc segment (29% in 11MCY15 vs. 41% in CY06). Keeping pricing for the new 600CC model at PkR650,000 (in-line with Mehran) and margins firm (NM of 5%, tax rate of 33%) an indicative earnings impact of PkR104.9mn (EPS: PkR1.3) may be ascertained. In light of these developments, a concerted push into improving spare parts servicing and pricing, potential upsides to earnings in the form of policy incentives likely, our BUY stance stands justified (Dec'16 TP of PKR584/share).       
New Model Confirmed: Confirming the launch of new models, PSMC is expected to re-initiate customer driven growth prospects by 1) launching a 600cc passenger car model and 1,600cc SUV with accompanying CAPEX of ~US$110mn, 2) setting up a manufacturing plant for spare parts investing ~US$320mn in the project and 3) utilizing tax incentives on offer as part of the yet to be released ADP-II, in a bid to propel internally driven earnings growth. A cursory survey of Suzuki manufacturers globally reveals the 600CC Alto Eco, 660CC Alto and 1,600CC Grand Vitara SUV as most probable models to be launched. Apart from auto sales, revenue from trading in spare parts has grown at a steady pace at a 5-YR CAGR of 9.6%, where locally manufactured spare parts will likely lower prices.
Earnings Impact: Despite the risk of cannibalization in a segment that makes up ~55% of the topline for PSMC, we believe a new model sales growth of 15% may be expected keeping pricing for the model at PkR650,000 (in-line with Mehran) and margins firm (NM of 5%, flat tax rate of 33%), an indicative earnings impact of PkR104.9mn (EPS: PkR1.3) may be ascertained. Additionally, we believe the likelihood of the 1,600CC compact SUV being a locally produced CKD model is minimal. In light of these developments, a concerted push into improving spare parts servicing and pricing, with upsides to earnings in the form of policy incentives likely.
Demand Trends in the below 800cc segment: Digging into past trends, the OEM has gradually been solidifying its base in the 800 and below 1000cc segment (57% of total units sold in 11MCY15 vs. 45% in CY06), while facing declining sales mix in the 1000cc segment (29% in 11MCY15 vs. 41% in CY06). As a result, any launch in this value car segment, currently dominated by the OEM (Mehran and Bolan) would lead to some degree of cannibalization, which we believe to be strong as the segment is largely devoid of robust demand growth (sales growth of 4%YoY for 11MCY15 ex-rozgar scheme and 5-YR CAGR 0.98%).
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on December 16, 2015, 06:29:00 PM
tomorrow this share ll breach 52 weeks high of 493 so get ready for handsome ride
it has broken a multi-year high on closing basis today :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on December 16, 2015, 10:48:05 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) Launching 2 New Models For Pakistan By Ali Raza - December 16, 2015
http://wishstocks.com/2015/12/16/pak-suzuki-motor-company-psmc-launching-2-new-models-for-pakistan/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on December 17, 2015, 10:08:32 AM
Hold or Sell on strength?

Wid tp plz
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on December 17, 2015, 12:38:27 PM
tomorrow this share ll breach 52 weeks high of 493 so get ready for handsome ride

Alhamdulilah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on December 17, 2015, 03:27:33 PM
aj jis jis nay psmc 510 pe baicha hai congrats to them  ;)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on December 28, 2015, 06:51:20 PM
Any update
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on December 29, 2015, 11:37:51 AM
 :lazy2:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on January 08, 2016, 01:08:44 PM
 :lazy2:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on January 11, 2016, 03:43:06 PM
WOW  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on January 11, 2016, 03:45:16 PM
Bumper Result 96.71% YOY & 8.71% QOQ increase
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on January 12, 2016, 06:36:36 PM
For PSMC, sales remained buoyant, with strong support from the Punjab government’s ‘Apna Rozgar’ scheme. For 4QCY15, we expect the company to register after tax earnings of PKR 21.70/share, down 1.7% QoQ, however, up massively 4.7x from 4QCY14, taking CY15 earnings to PKR 73.21/share. We anticipate an unprecedented cash dividend of PKR 18.0/share.
 
AHL
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ahmed786 on January 13, 2016, 03:15:52 PM
For PSMC, sales remained buoyant, with strong support from the Punjab government’s ‘Apna Rozgar’ scheme. For 4QCY15, we expect the company to register after tax earnings of PKR 21.70/share, down 1.7% QoQ, however, up massively 4.7x from 4QCY14, taking CY15 earnings to PKR 73.21/share. We anticipate an unprecedented cash dividend of PKR 18.0/share.
 
AHL

Target Price kia he?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on January 22, 2016, 02:31:56 PM
 :lazy2:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on January 27, 2016, 12:56:25 PM
 :lazy2:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on January 28, 2016, 02:27:52 PM
Took an entry at 502
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on January 31, 2016, 06:04:22 AM
one should start accumulating this share............. huge potential
Target Price 700 with in 1 year
3 months target 600 Insha Allah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on February 02, 2016, 12:14:49 PM
one should start accumulating this share............. huge potential
Target Price 700 with in 1 year
3 months target 600 Insha Allah

Alhamdulilah nice going
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on February 03, 2016, 10:16:48 AM
who bought at 500
20 rs gain so far Alhamdulilah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on February 03, 2016, 11:01:56 AM
next week it ll be trading in the range of 540 + Insha Allah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on February 03, 2016, 06:54:49 PM
one should start accumulating this share............. huge potential
Target Price 700 with in 1 year
3 months target 600 Insha Allah

InshaAllah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on February 06, 2016, 08:45:24 PM
Backed up by the best year for sales (133,660 units sold), translating into growth of 72%YoY, PSMC is on track to report its best year on record. Accommodating: 1) higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift) and 2) weaker for longer assumption for JpY vs. US$ (-0.6% average depreciation between CY16-19F vs. 0% previously), we re-calibrate GM's to 15.1%/14.8%/14.6% for CY16-18F. Tapping into elevated demand from the passenger segment, while leveraging its cost-effective offerings in the LCV market, PSMC is poised to benefit from sustainable growth in offtake. Although external risks remain, we believe PSMC is likely to weather through them on account of planned value accretive investments and strong brand power catered to cost competitive offerings. Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. Consequently, we raise our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share, BUY! 4QCY15 Preview: PSMC is slated to release its full year earnings, where we expect the OEM to report robust sales of PkR85.7bn showcasing growth of 60%YoY. GM for the year is forecasted at 14.2%, while NPAT is expected at PkR6.3bn (EPS: 76.1) a hefty rise of 2.26xYoY. On a sequential basis, 4QCY15 sales should amount to PkR24.5bn, rising 16%QoQ, while GM/OM/NM for the quarter are expected at 15.3/11.4/8.3%. Profit for the period should rest at PkR2.0bn (EPS:24.6), where we expect full year results to be accompanied by a payout of PkR15/share. Case for upgrade: Subsequent to the stark growth witnessed over the year, we have re-assessed our offtake projections for the OEM. Assessing past growth, Mehran and LCV (Ravi + Bolan) have contributed consistently to offtake, whereby CY10-15 average annual growth of 10% and 34% highlight the contribution to toppling growth from these offerings. We now incorporate higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift). Risks: Major risks to our thesis emanate from: 1) deterioration of pricing power through new entrants (enticed by provision in ADP-II) or cheap imports, pulling margins lower, 2) hasty implementation of safety standards forcing expensive sourcing of components inflating costs, and 3) adversities on the external front where a weakening PkR vs. US$ or strengthening JpY (highly unlikely due to stated policy of export competitiveness) could dent profits in the long term. Outlook: Despite the presence of external swings remaining detrimental to long term profit sustainability, PSMC benefits from, 1) strong footprint across the country (86 dealers) with brand power, 2) planned investments to introduce new models (1000 CC Celerio planned for 1QCY17) accompanied by investment in a spare parts manufacturing facility, and 3) cost effective nature of offerings taping into multi segment demand base. Any uptick in organic car financing and GoP led subsidy schemes would prove to be an additional boon for profits, sustainability of which would remain in question. Investment Perspective: Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. We raisie our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 06, 2016, 10:53:26 PM
Backed up by the best year for sales (133,660 units sold), translating into growth of 72%YoY, PSMC is on track to report its best year on record. Accommodating: 1) higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift) and 2) weaker for longer assumption for JpY vs. US$ (-0.6% average depreciation between CY16-19F vs. 0% previously), we re-calibrate GM's to 15.1%/14.8%/14.6% for CY16-18F. Tapping into elevated demand from the passenger segment, while leveraging its cost-effective offerings in the LCV market, PSMC is poised to benefit from sustainable growth in offtake. Although external risks remain, we believe PSMC is likely to weather through them on account of planned value accretive investments and strong brand power catered to cost competitive offerings. Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. Consequently, we raise our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share, BUY! 4QCY15 Preview: PSMC is slated to release its full year earnings, where we expect the OEM to report robust sales of PkR85.7bn showcasing growth of 60%YoY. GM for the year is forecasted at 14.2%, while NPAT is expected at PkR6.3bn (EPS: 76.1) a hefty rise of 2.26xYoY. On a sequential basis, 4QCY15 sales should amount to PkR24.5bn, rising 16%QoQ, while GM/OM/NM for the quarter are expected at 15.3/11.4/8.3%. Profit for the period should rest at PkR2.0bn (EPS:24.6), where we expect full year results to be accompanied by a payout of PkR15/share. Case for upgrade: Subsequent to the stark growth witnessed over the year, we have re-assessed our offtake projections for the OEM. Assessing past growth, Mehran and LCV (Ravi + Bolan) have contributed consistently to offtake, whereby CY10-15 average annual growth of 10% and 34% highlight the contribution to toppling growth from these offerings. We now incorporate higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift). Risks: Major risks to our thesis emanate from: 1) deterioration of pricing power through new entrants (enticed by provision in ADP-II) or cheap imports, pulling margins lower, 2) hasty implementation of safety standards forcing expensive sourcing of components inflating costs, and 3) adversities on the external front where a weakening PkR vs. US$ or strengthening JpY (highly unlikely due to stated policy of export competitiveness) could dent profits in the long term. Outlook: Despite the presence of external swings remaining detrimental to long term profit sustainability, PSMC benefits from, 1) strong footprint across the country (86 dealers) with brand power, 2) planned investments to introduce new models (1000 CC Celerio planned for 1QCY17) accompanied by investment in a spare parts manufacturing facility, and 3) cost effective nature of offerings taping into multi segment demand base. Any uptick in organic car financing and GoP led subsidy schemes would prove to be an additional boon for profits, sustainability of which would remain in question. Investment Perspective: Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. We raisie our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share.

wtf
they are assuming punjab gov schemes every year for next 5 years ? \
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on February 08, 2016, 02:12:32 PM
 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on February 08, 2016, 07:40:17 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jaz on February 08, 2016, 08:51:24 PM
Backed up by the best year for sales (133,660 units sold), translating into growth of 72%YoY, PSMC is on track to report its best year on record. Accommodating: 1) higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift) and 2) weaker for longer assumption for JpY vs. US$ (-0.6% average depreciation between CY16-19F vs. 0% previously), we re-calibrate GM's to 15.1%/14.8%/14.6% for CY16-18F. Tapping into elevated demand from the passenger segment, while leveraging its cost-effective offerings in the LCV market, PSMC is poised to benefit from sustainable growth in offtake. Although external risks remain, we believe PSMC is likely to weather through them on account of planned value accretive investments and strong brand power catered to cost competitive offerings. Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. Consequently, we raise our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share, BUY! 4QCY15 Preview: PSMC is slated to release its full year earnings, where we expect the OEM to report robust sales of PkR85.7bn showcasing growth of 60%YoY. GM for the year is forecasted at 14.2%, while NPAT is expected at PkR6.3bn (EPS: 76.1) a hefty rise of 2.26xYoY. On a sequential basis, 4QCY15 sales should amount to PkR24.5bn, rising 16%QoQ, while GM/OM/NM for the quarter are expected at 15.3/11.4/8.3%. Profit for the period should rest at PkR2.0bn (EPS:24.6), where we expect full year results to be accompanied by a payout of PkR15/share. Case for upgrade: Subsequent to the stark growth witnessed over the year, we have re-assessed our offtake projections for the OEM. Assessing past growth, Mehran and LCV (Ravi + Bolan) have contributed consistently to offtake, whereby CY10-15 average annual growth of 10% and 34% highlight the contribution to toppling growth from these offerings. We now incorporate higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift). Risks: Major risks to our thesis emanate from: 1) deterioration of pricing power through new entrants (enticed by provision in ADP-II) or cheap imports, pulling margins lower, 2) hasty implementation of safety standards forcing expensive sourcing of components inflating costs, and 3) adversities on the external front where a weakening PkR vs. US$ or strengthening JpY (highly unlikely due to stated policy of export competitiveness) could dent profits in the long term. Outlook: Despite the presence of external swings remaining detrimental to long term profit sustainability, PSMC benefits from, 1) strong footprint across the country (86 dealers) with brand power, 2) planned investments to introduce new models (1000 CC Celerio planned for 1QCY17) accompanied by investment in a spare parts manufacturing facility, and 3) cost effective nature of offerings taping into multi segment demand base. Any uptick in organic car financing and GoP led subsidy schemes would prove to be an additional boon for profits, sustainability of which would remain in question. Investment Perspective: Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. We raisie our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share.

wtf
they are assuming punjab gov schemes every year for next 5 years ? \
Would be difficult to sustain earnings going forward, in the absence of punjab govt scheme.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 09, 2016, 09:08:31 AM
Backed up by the best year for sales (133,660 units sold), translating into growth of 72%YoY, PSMC is on track to report its best year on record. Accommodating: 1) higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift) and 2) weaker for longer assumption for JpY vs. US$ (-0.6% average depreciation between CY16-19F vs. 0% previously), we re-calibrate GM's to 15.1%/14.8%/14.6% for CY16-18F. Tapping into elevated demand from the passenger segment, while leveraging its cost-effective offerings in the LCV market, PSMC is poised to benefit from sustainable growth in offtake. Although external risks remain, we believe PSMC is likely to weather through them on account of planned value accretive investments and strong brand power catered to cost competitive offerings. Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. Consequently, we raise our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share, BUY! 4QCY15 Preview: PSMC is slated to release its full year earnings, where we expect the OEM to report robust sales of PkR85.7bn showcasing growth of 60%YoY. GM for the year is forecasted at 14.2%, while NPAT is expected at PkR6.3bn (EPS: 76.1) a hefty rise of 2.26xYoY. On a sequential basis, 4QCY15 sales should amount to PkR24.5bn, rising 16%QoQ, while GM/OM/NM for the quarter are expected at 15.3/11.4/8.3%. Profit for the period should rest at PkR2.0bn (EPS:24.6), where we expect full year results to be accompanied by a payout of PkR15/share. Case for upgrade: Subsequent to the stark growth witnessed over the year, we have re-assessed our offtake projections for the OEM. Assessing past growth, Mehran and LCV (Ravi + Bolan) have contributed consistently to offtake, whereby CY10-15 average annual growth of 10% and 34% highlight the contribution to toppling growth from these offerings. We now incorporate higher sales growth in the LCV segment (sales growth of 5%YoY annually for Ravi & Bolan through CY16-19F) with stability in the passenger category (2.5%YoY growth for Mehran, Wagon R & Swift). Risks: Major risks to our thesis emanate from: 1) deterioration of pricing power through new entrants (enticed by provision in ADP-II) or cheap imports, pulling margins lower, 2) hasty implementation of safety standards forcing expensive sourcing of components inflating costs, and 3) adversities on the external front where a weakening PkR vs. US$ or strengthening JpY (highly unlikely due to stated policy of export competitiveness) could dent profits in the long term. Outlook: Despite the presence of external swings remaining detrimental to long term profit sustainability, PSMC benefits from, 1) strong footprint across the country (86 dealers) with brand power, 2) planned investments to introduce new models (1000 CC Celerio planned for 1QCY17) accompanied by investment in a spare parts manufacturing facility, and 3) cost effective nature of offerings taping into multi segment demand base. Any uptick in organic car financing and GoP led subsidy schemes would prove to be an additional boon for profits, sustainability of which would remain in question. Investment Perspective: Incorporating the said variables, our earnings forecasts stand raised by 18%/17%/16% for CY16-18F. We raisie our DCF based Dec'16 TP by 17% to PkR696/share.

wtf
they are assuming punjab gov schemes every year for next 5 years ? \
Would be difficult to sustain earnings going forward, in the absence of punjab govt scheme.
lakin tukkay baaz logo ko phansa ra hay!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 09, 2016, 03:23:59 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
WHAT A PREDICTION...PSMC IS CAPPED WITH HUGE VOLUME! :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aftab6274974 on February 09, 2016, 03:51:26 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
WHAT A PREDICTION...PSMC IS CAPPED WITH HUGE VOLUME! :shoaby:
:crying_anim02:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 10, 2016, 02:45:02 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
aaaj b cap ho gya....what a gr8 call :shoaby: :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on February 10, 2016, 06:03:48 PM
 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on February 11, 2016, 11:06:24 AM
 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 11, 2016, 02:03:03 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
:dance
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ahmed786 on February 11, 2016, 04:58:18 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
:dance

Ab ap ne nhi liay so leave it, Aisa nhi karte donot get personal. Ignore it , everybody should be allow to give his opinion.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SMF-M on February 11, 2016, 05:08:45 PM
500 se 521 gya tha when Omer bhai first gave the call, us time maal bna liya hm ne 517 pe sell krdiya, mazeed dip ajaegi jesi market hy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 11, 2016, 06:05:20 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah
:dance

Ab ap ne nhi liay so leave it, Aisa nhi karte donot get personal. Ignore it , everybody should be allow to give his opinion.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on February 11, 2016, 08:04:50 PM
SABIR TERAY GHNL KA KYA BANA JO TU NEW HIGHS KARWA RAHA THA GANDA BANDA HAI TU, OMAR BRO WHERE ARE YOU

WE ALL ARE WITH YOU OMAR WAITING FOR YOUR POST
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: optimistic on February 11, 2016, 08:25:30 PM
SABIR TERAY GHNL KA KYA BANA JO TU NEW HIGHS KARWA RAHA THA GANDA BANDA HAI TU, OMAR BRO WHERE ARE YOU

WE ALL ARE WITH YOU OMAR WAITING FOR YOUR POST

Dont fight with each other, dont spoil your amals, nobody perfect, we all are trying earn from stock market,

May Allah Pak forgive us all, ameen.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on February 11, 2016, 08:29:28 PM
YAAR ASIM BRO ALREADY LEFT FORUM ABDUL QADIR ALSO, IF OMAR BRO BHI CHOR GYA TOU YAHAN PHIR REH KYA JAYE GA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: optimistic on February 11, 2016, 08:36:41 PM
YAAR ASIM BRO ALREADY LEFT FORUM ABDUL QADIR ALSO, IF OMAR BRO BHI CHOR GYA TOU YAHAN PHIR REH KYA JAYE GA

forum chorney ke waja disregard with each other, loose talking, misbehaved, disrespect, taunting with each other ha,
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Javed Khan on February 11, 2016, 08:47:19 PM
YOU ARE RIGHT WE ALL SHOULD BE DECENT TO EACH OTHER
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SMF-M on February 12, 2016, 12:03:22 AM
Jahil Aurton wali harkato se guraiz kijiye  :D. No offence.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 12, 2016, 07:41:52 AM
YOU ARE RIGHT WE ALL SHOULD BE DECENT TO EACH OTHER
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on February 12, 2016, 11:47:39 AM
Very Strange behavior as EPS for the year 2015 will be in vicinity of Rs.73-75 and going forward Sale will be Decent as car financing is going up and Input cost is still low.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 12, 2016, 11:57:04 AM
Very Strange behavior as EPS for the year 2015 will be in vicinity of Rs.73-75 and going forward Sale will be Decent as car financing is going up and Input cost is still low.

Strong yen is hurting autos ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on February 12, 2016, 12:14:14 PM
but it has gone down yesterday and before that it was just 4.5% up
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MS on February 12, 2016, 12:34:06 PM
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=JPY&to=USD&amount=1
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: amhu52 on February 12, 2016, 01:27:58 PM
http://daily.urdupoint.com/livenews/2016-02-10/news-589096.html
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Tamour123 on February 12, 2016, 02:46:15 PM
Brave investors would be accumulating right now !
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 12, 2016, 04:31:56 PM
next week it ll be trading in the range of 540 + Insha Allah
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ranishali on February 12, 2016, 04:35:12 PM
next week it ll be trading in the range of 540 + Insha Allah
aur phir sb nay dekh li tumhari shekhi.....aaj suzuki lower cap thee..... :fingerscrossed1:

Sabir bhai aisa kisi ko kehna nahi chahiyeh, aap ki bhi shekhi is forum pr kafi logo ne dekhi hai, jo bhi kehtay hai hamesha us ka ulta hi hota hai....No offence
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 12, 2016, 04:39:44 PM
next week it ll be trading in the range of 540 + Insha Allah
[/quote

Sabir bhai aisa kisi ko kehna nahi chahiyeh, aap ki bhi shekhi is forum pr kafi logo ne dekhi hai, jo bhi kehtay hai hamesha us ka ulta hi hota hai....No offence
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ranishali on February 12, 2016, 04:46:28 PM
next week it ll be trading in the range of 540 + Insha Allah
aur phir sb nay dekh li tumhari shekhi.....aaj suzuki lower cap thee..... :fingerscrossed1:

Sabir bhai aisa kisi ko kehna nahi chahiyeh, aap ki bhi shekhi is forum pr kafi logo ne dekhi hai, jo bhi kehtay hai hamesha us ka ulta hi hota hai....No offence
tum tou chupp kr jao bahi....iss omer nami bnday nay ik fake ID say kafi taunt kia muja.....usss wqat tum kidher thay MrRanishali???? :@

Mujhay bhi koi shoq nahi hai aap se behs karne ka, fake ID thi ya nahi, koi nahi keh sakta, but yes, kisi ko baar baar neecha dikhana woh sirf aapne hi kiya hai....na aap mere dost ho na Omer bhai jo me kisi ki side lu, Omer bhai ne almost 90% calls sahi di hai unlike you, or forum per apnay opinions dena sab ka haq hai, us ko manna na manna aap ki marzi hai, Omer bhai ne kisi ko gun point per to buy/sell karney ko nahi kaha, its your money, invest it wisely, profit/loss ivest karnay walay ka hai, na k aap ka ya mera ya omer bhai ka, enough from my side, God bless you
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ahmed786 on February 12, 2016, 05:18:09 PM
 Lower Lock any News!!!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: stockz_123 on February 12, 2016, 05:27:57 PM
Lower Lock any News!!!

YEN
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M ellahi on February 12, 2016, 09:38:05 PM


http://www.investing.com/currencies/jpy-usd (http://www.investing.com/currencies/jpy-usd)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SMF-M on February 12, 2016, 10:51:41 PM
Omer bhai asked to accumulate chashma sugar around 62 in January, it's at 105 and no sign of stopping, cap o cap ja rha hy.  :o
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: talha1976 on February 13, 2016, 02:34:44 PM
Yen will reverse soon
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Tamour123 on February 13, 2016, 04:03:48 PM
Yen does impact earning of PSMC however not to a big extent.  Only about 20 percent of the parts are imported including engine gearbox and a few other mechanical parts.  Rest of the 80 percent are produced locally.  Also, companies like PSMC do hedge themselves against currency movements.   Bigger concern is the maturity of the Rozgaar Scheme.  Once this scheme is over, sales growth will reduce substantially!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: talha1976 on February 13, 2016, 04:24:07 PM
Yen will reverse soon
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on February 13, 2016, 07:16:20 PM
Yen does impact earning of PSMC however not to a big extent.  Only about 20 percent of the parts are imported including engine gearbox and a few other mechanical parts.  Rest of the 80 percent are produced locally.  Also, companies like PSMC do hedge themselves against currency movements.   Bigger concern is the maturity of the Rozgaar Scheme.  Once this scheme is over, sales growth will reduce substantially!

Are you sure about 80%,the figure I remember is 70%
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: M ellahi on February 13, 2016, 07:39:25 PM
Yen does impact earning of PSMC however not to a big extent.  Only about 20 percent of the parts are imported including engine gearbox and a few other mechanical parts.  Rest of the 80 percent are produced locally.  Also, companies like PSMC do hedge themselves against currency movements.   Bigger concern is the maturity of the Rozgaar Scheme.  Once this scheme is over, sales growth will reduce substantially!

Are you sure about 80%,the figure I remember is 70%

I remember it more like 85%
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on February 18, 2016, 04:22:23 PM
Any news regarding bm?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 19, 2016, 08:37:48 AM
kya bna phir suzuki ka :laugh:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sabir.hussain on February 19, 2016, 04:10:18 PM
taza rate 429....... :[
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on February 19, 2016, 04:55:15 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC):
Likely introduction of new Model of Celerio in 2017 market report suggest that capitalizing on recent buoyancy in car sales, PSMC will introduce Celerio 1000cc in 2017 with high probability of one more model Alto 660cc in 2018. It is highly likely that Cultus 1000cc will be discontinued in 2017. expectation for celerio is high that Celerio will contribute 15-17% to total volumes of PSMC during 2017-20 while Alto 660cc will contribute 18-20% from 2018-20.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on February 19, 2016, 07:22:33 PM
However, it is
pertinent to note that near term price performance of the overall sector is likely to
remain under pressure owing to volatility and unexpected movement in FX markets
(5.3%CYTD strengthening of JPY against PKR)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on February 19, 2016, 08:18:58 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC):
Likely introduction of new Model of Celerio in 2017 market report suggest that capitalizing on recent buoyancy in car sales, PSMC will introduce Celerio 1000cc in 2017 with high probability of one more model Alto 660cc in 2018. It is highly likely that Cultus 1000cc will be discontinued in 2017. expectation for celerio is high that Celerio will contribute 15-17% to total volumes of PSMC during 2017-20 while Alto 660cc will contribute 18-20% from 2018-20.
Celerio in 2016, Cultus will be discontinued in 2016 as well.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: leraningtheropes on February 25, 2016, 03:18:10 PM
Seniors, should we buy?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: leraningtheropes on February 26, 2016, 09:52:44 AM
Anyone? Any guidance on this script please?

Thanks in advance!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sumbul on February 26, 2016, 09:59:40 AM
Anyone? Any guidance on this script please?

Thanks in advance!

Buy with both eyes closed. These are mouth watering rates  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ranishali on February 26, 2016, 10:22:14 AM
Anyone? Any guidance on this script please?

Thanks in advance!

Buy with both eyes closed. These are mouth watering rates  :biggthumpup:
sumbul its decreasing day by day, where it would hold its downward movement?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sumbul on February 26, 2016, 04:38:19 PM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: leraningtheropes on February 26, 2016, 06:07:15 PM
The whole market was green today
KSE 100 closed at +491

Despite that if there was no decent price appreciation in PSMC, makes me think we might not see that 15-20% appreciation after all.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 01, 2016, 12:00:07 PM
Finally some movement
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ranishali on March 01, 2016, 12:16:07 PM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:

Can a buying @ 421 still be made, considering a 10 - 15% gain????
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sumbul on March 01, 2016, 12:47:12 PM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:

Can a buying @ 421 still be made, considering a 10 - 15% gain????

Yes Yes Yes  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sumbul on March 01, 2016, 04:52:12 PM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:

Can a buying @ 421 still be made, considering a 10 - 15% gain????

Yes Yes Yes  :biggthumpup:

 ::)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ranishali on March 01, 2016, 09:18:23 PM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:

Can a buying @ 421 still be made, considering a 10 - 15% gain????

Yes Yes Yes  :biggthumpup:

 ::)

Geo sumbul  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:

Chal para yeh, ab kaha tak ja sakta hai?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sumbul on March 01, 2016, 11:17:29 PM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:

Can a buying @ 421 still be made, considering a 10 - 15% gain????

Yes Yes Yes  :biggthumpup:

 ::)

Geo sumbul  :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim:

Chal para yeh, ab kaha tak ja sakta hai?

450-460 kee range mein nikal jana
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sumbul on March 02, 2016, 10:15:40 AM
Bought at 418 expecting a 10-15% gain in 15-20 days  :fingerscrossed1:

Lagta hey kissi ney maal uthaya nahee  :rtfm:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 02, 2016, 01:29:48 PM
Till when is bm expected? Have read rumors of super dividend. Don't know if true or not.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on March 02, 2016, 11:20:05 PM
Till when is bm expected? Have read rumors of super dividend. Don't know if true or not.

15-20 rs cash if they are not preserving for upcoming auto policy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: engrusama on March 03, 2016, 12:58:30 PM
will be wonderful if that happens. thanks.

Till when is bm expected? Have read rumors of super dividend. Don't know if true or not.

15-20 rs cash if they are not preserving for upcoming auto policy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: afzalch on March 08, 2016, 12:31:28 PM
BOD meeting for the year ended Dec 2015 will be held on March 15,2016 to consider financial statements at Karachi
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Sharoze123 on March 15, 2016, 11:29:18 AM
Expecting 73-75 earnings per share, and with regards to their past payout history dividend would be shit at 16ish rs/share.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: afzalch on March 15, 2016, 01:25:06 PM
PSMC declared dividend Rs.15/- per share for the year ended Dec 2015
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on March 15, 2016, 02:07:46 PM
Expecting 73-75 earnings per share, and with regards to their past payout history dividend would be shit at 16ish rs/share.

good work
eps 71 dps 15
http://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/078560.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on March 16, 2016, 09:38:55 AM
PSMC Result:
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 4Q2015 EPS Rs21.7 (Below expectations)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 4Q2015 earnings of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs21.7) against Rs311mn (EPS Rs3.8) in same quarter last year. The result was also accompanied by a final cash dividend of Rs15/share. This result was below market consensus.

PSMC revenue grew by 86% YoY to Rs23.5bn in 4Q2015 as company sold 36,712 units in the fourth quarter (+97% YoY). We attribute this increase in volumes to the taxi scheme launched by Govt. of Punjab in provincial budget of FY15. To recall, PSMC offered a discount to Govt. of Punjab due to large order of Taxis.
In 2015, PSMC earnings stood at Rs5.8bn (EPS Rs70.9) versus Rs1.9bn (EPS 23.4) in the same period last year. Revenues improved substantially, by 58% YoY, while gross margins improved by 579bps to 13.6% from 7.8% during 2014. PSMC sold 133,660 units in 2015 – up by 72% YoY.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Thelma on March 16, 2016, 10:25:52 AM
Why is it down ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nma on March 16, 2016, 11:00:56 AM
PSMC Result:
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 4Q2015 EPS Rs21.7 (Below expectations)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 4Q2015 earnings of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs21.7) against Rs311mn (EPS Rs3.8) in same quarter last year. The result was also accompanied by a final cash dividend of Rs15/share. This result was below market consensus.

PSMC revenue grew by 86% YoY to Rs23.5bn in 4Q2015 as company sold 36,712 units in the fourth quarter (+97% YoY). We attribute this increase in volumes to the taxi scheme launched by Govt. of Punjab in provincial budget of FY15. To recall, PSMC offered a discount to Govt. of Punjab due to large order of Taxis.
In 2015, PSMC earnings stood at Rs5.8bn (EPS Rs70.9) versus Rs1.9bn (EPS 23.4) in the same period last year. Revenues improved substantially, by 58% YoY, while gross margins improved by 579bps to 13.6% from 7.8% during 2014. PSMC sold 133,660 units in 2015 – up by 72% YoY.

Below market consensus??? Does any1 know wat market consensus was? It was Rs 73.77. EPS is 70.99; just 2.78 rs below expectation. And they have hit Rs 25 against such a small short-fall. The point is: "yeh saarae mil ke hum ko pagal bana rahay hain...."

ASC ki less than 2 Rs earning ke against 15 rs barha diye. PMPK ke (21 rs) loss ke against 23 rs barah diye. Or is ke Rs 70.99 Eps ke against 25 rs maar diye. Wah!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rsuleman on March 16, 2016, 11:15:32 AM
PSMC Result:
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 4Q2015 EPS Rs21.7 (Below expectations)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 4Q2015 earnings of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs21.7) against Rs311mn (EPS Rs3.8) in same quarter last year. The result was also accompanied by a final cash dividend of Rs15/share. This result was below market consensus.

PSMC revenue grew by 86% YoY to Rs23.5bn in 4Q2015 as company sold 36,712 units in the fourth quarter (+97% YoY). We attribute this increase in volumes to the taxi scheme launched by Govt. of Punjab in provincial budget of FY15. To recall, PSMC offered a discount to Govt. of Punjab due to large order of Taxis.
In 2015, PSMC earnings stood at Rs5.8bn (EPS Rs70.9) versus Rs1.9bn (EPS 23.4) in the same period last year. Revenues improved substantially, by 58% YoY, while gross margins improved by 579bps to 13.6% from 7.8% during 2014. PSMC sold 133,660 units in 2015 – up by 72% YoY.

Below market consensus??? Does any1 know wat market consensus was? It was Rs 73.77. EPS is 70.99; just 2.78 rs below expectation. And they have hit Rs 25 against such a small short-fall. The point is: "yeh saarae mil ke hum ko pagal bana rahay hain...."

ASC ki less than 2 Rs earning ke against 15 rs barha diye. PMPK ke (21 rs) loss ke against 23 rs barah diye. Or is ke Rs 70.99 Eps ke against 25 rs maar diye. Wah!
For PSMC, there is the difference of around Rs 3 between actual and market consensus.
Arithmatically speaking, at PE x of 10, hit should be around 30.
Relevant to the subject, quality of the EPS is also an issue with respect to the result. In CY15, Rozgar Scheme of Punjab has contributed a significant percentage and it is a one time factor and not the recurring one. 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on March 16, 2016, 12:15:17 PM
PSMC Result:
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 4Q2015 EPS Rs21.7 (Below expectations)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 4Q2015 earnings of Rs1.8bn (EPS Rs21.7) against Rs311mn (EPS Rs3.8) in same quarter last year. The result was also accompanied by a final cash dividend of Rs15/share. This result was below market consensus.

PSMC revenue grew by 86% YoY to Rs23.5bn in 4Q2015 as company sold 36,712 units in the fourth quarter (+97% YoY). We attribute this increase in volumes to the taxi scheme launched by Govt. of Punjab in provincial budget of FY15. To recall, PSMC offered a discount to Govt. of Punjab due to large order of Taxis.
In 2015, PSMC earnings stood at Rs5.8bn (EPS Rs70.9) versus Rs1.9bn (EPS 23.4) in the same period last year. Revenues improved substantially, by 58% YoY, while gross margins improved by 579bps to 13.6% from 7.8% during 2014. PSMC sold 133,660 units in 2015 – up by 72% YoY.

Below market consensus??? Does any1 know wat market consensus was? It was Rs 73.77. EPS is 70.99; just 2.78 rs below expectation. And they have hit Rs 25 against such a small short-fall. The point is: "yeh saarae mil ke hum ko pagal bana rahay hain...."

ASC ki less than 2 Rs earning ke against 15 rs barha diye. PMPK ke (21 rs) loss ke against 23 rs barah diye. Or is ke Rs 70.99 Eps ke against 25 rs maar diye. Wah!
For PSMC, there is the difference of around Rs 3 between actual and market consensus.
Arithmatically speaking, at PE x of 10, hit should be around 30.
Relevant to the subject, quality of the EPS is also an issue with respect to the result. In CY15, Rozgar Scheme of Punjab has contributed a significant percentage and it is a one time factor and not the recurring one.

well said
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rizanam on March 23, 2016, 10:28:55 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah

OTR (OMER THE REEARCHER) bhai kuch light dalen is p....aap ki call k baad and after good result and payout it is depreciated a lot.

kitna downside ja sakta hai and where is buy stands ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: leraningtheropes on March 25, 2016, 10:25:06 AM
So with the Punjab scheme coming to an end, what are future earnings looking like? I am a total newbie at this but I am assuming PSMS won't be announcing a similar or even a close EPS as this years right?

I the assumption is correct, PSMC price will correct further downwards and get back to equilibirum.

Am I thinking correctly about this?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Omer The Researcher on March 25, 2016, 09:20:17 PM
get ready for price appreciation Insha Allah

OTR (OMER THE REEARCHER) bhai kuch light dalen is p....aap ki call k baad and after good result and payout it is depreciated a lot.

kitna downside ja sakta hai and where is buy stands ?

dude most of the research houses was expecting YEN to depreciate but it happened exactly opposite as suddenly YEN appreciated and rest hammering was done by auto policy which was not favourable for established auto players
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on March 29, 2016, 10:10:05 AM
Pak Suzuki mulls moving investment to Iran: A major automaker has threatened to shift its investment for a new plant worth $400-500 million to Iran from Pakistan citing dearth of incentives for existing assemblers in the Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-21. Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), which has over 50 per cent market share, informed the government some time back of its plan to make big investments and work on vendor development and new models. “We may shelve our investment plans in Pakistan besides rolling out new models as the ADP has nothing to offer,” spokesperson for PSMCL said. Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1248534/pak-suzuki-mulls-moving-investment-to-iran
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rsuleman on March 29, 2016, 12:33:44 PM
Pak Suzuki mulls moving investment to Iran: A major automaker has threatened to shift its investment for a new plant worth $400-500 million to Iran from Pakistan citing dearth of incentives for existing assemblers in the Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-21. Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), which has over 50 per cent market share, informed the government some time back of its plan to make big investments and work on vendor development and new models. “We may shelve our investment plans in Pakistan besides rolling out new models as the ADP has nothing to offer,” spokesperson for PSMCL said. Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1248534/pak-suzuki-mulls-moving-investment-to-iran
I look it as a blackmailing tactic, as ROE for PSMC is fantastic. I doubt that they will deprive them of it.
For further growth, they need to introduce new models anyway as it will increase their ROE, even if the current regime of incentives are maintained by GOP.
For PSMC, if they want to make their case, they should come up with a comparison between opportunities in Iran and Pakistan, instead of making threats, like this.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GPR on March 29, 2016, 02:42:56 PM
Pak Suzuki mulls moving investment to Iran: A major automaker has threatened to shift its investment for a new plant worth $400-500 million to Iran from Pakistan citing dearth of incentives for existing assemblers in the Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-21. Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), which has over 50 per cent market share, informed the government some time back of its plan to make big investments and work on vendor development and new models. “We may shelve our investment plans in Pakistan besides rolling out new models as the ADP has nothing to offer,” spokesperson for PSMCL said. Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1248534/pak-suzuki-mulls-moving-investment-to-iran
considering the quality of the vehicles manufactured by PSMC, they better leave Pakistan. The legal system in Iran is much better than Pakistan. Wahan ja kar Mehran jaisi gari banain gai to lag pata jai ga in ko.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on March 29, 2016, 02:47:09 PM
PSMC is using old technique to blackmail govt. I dont think so it would have any impact on govt
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jamalakhter on March 29, 2016, 09:44:39 PM
Pak Suzuki mulls moving investment to Iran: A major automaker has threatened to shift its investment for a new plant worth $400-500 million to Iran from Pakistan citing dearth of incentives for existing assemblers in the Automotive Development Policy (ADP) 2016-21. Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), which has over 50 per cent market share, informed the government some time back of its plan to make big investments and work on vendor development and new models. “We may shelve our investment plans in Pakistan besides rolling out new models as the ADP has nothing to offer,” spokesperson for PSMCL said. Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1248534/pak-suzuki-mulls-moving-investment-to-iran
Thanks GOD we r getting from this looter & NO--2
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: akhterrasool on March 30, 2016, 09:32:47 AM
PSMC is using old technique to blackmail govt. I dont think so it would have any impact on govt

You are absolutely right... They cannot sell piece of junk crap Merhan car in any other country for 0.8 million...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 27, 2016, 11:35:23 AM
PSMC: 1QCY16 earnings expected at PKR16.04/sh

The board meeting of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is scheduled on 28th Apr’16 to consider the financial result for 1QCY16. We expect PSMC to post earnings of PKR1.3bn (EPS: PKR16.04) for 1QCY16, up 39%YoY compared to PKR946mn (EPS: PKR11.50) during 1QCY15. The company will likely witness a flat trend in its topline, with the 1% price increase in Jan’16 expected to make up for the 2%YoY decrease in automobile volumetric sales during 1QCY16. The YoY growth in earnings will likely be attributed to 2.7ppsYoY expansion in gross margin and increased Other Income. On sequential basis, we expect earnings to decline by 18%QoQ compared to PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR19.48) during 4QCY15, on the back of ~18%QoQ decline in automobile sales volumes with the conclusion of Punjab government’s Apna Rozgar Scheme.

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 27, 2016, 06:53:27 PM
PSMC: 1QCY16 EPS foreseen at PKR16.74; DPS, Nil
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd. (PSMC) is all set to announce its 1QCY16 financial result on
Apr 28, 2016. We foresee the Company reporting a Profit After Tax (PAT) of PKR1,377mn
(EPS; PKR16.74) during 1QCY16 against a PAT of PKR946mn (EPS: PKR11.50) during 1QCY15,
up 46pc, YoY. In line with trends, we do not foresee PSMC declaring any dividend during
1QCY16.

AHCML
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on April 27, 2016, 06:55:39 PM
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: 1QCY16 Result Preview
PSMC is expected to release 1QCY16 earnings tomorrow (28th April'16), where we posit NPAT for the period to amount to PkR742mn (EPS:PkR9.01) depicting a decline of 22%YoY/54%QoQ. Underpinned by: 1) significant dip in offtake (1QCY16 offtake fell to 30,181 units down 46%YoY/18%QoQ) following through to our 33%YoY/43%QoQ expected slide in sales, 2) reversal in favorable macro  swings, particularly in the case of adverse movement in the JPY (1QCY15 average JPY/US$ appreciated 3.3%YoY/5.1%QoQ), significantly denting margins and 3) upturn in input prices with steel prices leading the rally (average China cold rolled steel prices up 14%QoQ). GM's for 1QCY16F are expected to clock in at 11.6% vs. 12.9% for 4QCY15. Finding it difficult to put a positive picture on the recently released AIDP-II and its policy implications on PSMC, which we believe to be broadly negative. That said, in the meantime, we believe the OEM will retain its market dominance in the 1000CC and below segments, for CY16F and a considerable portion of CY17F, considering the 1.5-2yr lead time for new  entrant offerings to materialize. At current price levels the stock trades at undemanding CY16F/17F P/E of 6.7x/6.5x.
 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on April 28, 2016, 04:31:34 PM
PSMC: 1QCY16 EPS clocked in at PKR11.51, down 41%QoQ
 
§ Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) reported 1QCY16 earnings at PKR948mn (EPS: PKR11.51), down 41%QoQ compared to PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR19.48) posted during 4QCY15.

§ The QoQ decrease in earnings can be attributed to i) 14%QoQ decline in the topline due to 18%YoY decline in automobile sales volumes and ii) 1.9ppsQoQ decline in gross margins on the back of strengthening JPY against the PKR.

§ The conclusion of Punjab government’s Apna Rozgar scheme primarily attributed to the decline in automobile sales volumes.

§     However, earnings remained flattish on YoY basis compared to PKR946mn (EPS: PKR11.50) reported in 1QCY15.

§ With our target price of PKR492/sh, we have an Overweight call on the scrip offering a total return of 29% (upside 26%, D/Y 3%) from the last closing. However, we believe volatility and adverse movement in FX market (JPY/PKR rate up ~8%CYTD) will likely keep near term price performance restricted.

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: thedarkknight on April 28, 2016, 05:02:27 PM
attractive prices to buy
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: zelmc on April 28, 2016, 06:35:25 PM
attractive prices to buy
Let it come around 375.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 28, 2016, 07:24:12 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 1Q2016 EPS Rs11.5 (Below our expectations)
(PDF attached)
(Apr 28, 2016)
 
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 1Q2016 result and reported flat earnings of Rs948mn (EPS Rs11.5). This result was below our expectations.
Key takeaways
§  PSMC revenue grew by 2% YoY to Rs19.9bn in 1Q2016 despite 2% decline in volumes to 30,181 units. We attribute increase in revenue to car price hike that was announced in Jan 2016 and low proportion of taxis which were given to Govt. of Punjab at Rs50,000/unit discount.
§  Cost of sales increased more than our expectations and reached at Rs17.8bn thus, gross margins declined by 7bps YoY to 11.0%. We attribute this increase in cost of sales to depreciation of Pak Rupee (PKR) against US dollar (US$) and Japanese Yen (JPY) by 3.0% YoY and 7.0% YoY, respectively.
§  Other income grew by 111% YoY to Rs279mn in 1Q2016, as the company earned interest on advances received from customers owing to strong car demand.
§  Administrative expenses surged 64%, more than our estimation, to reach at Rs442mn.
§  On QoQ basis, revenue of the company posted a decline of 14% due to 18% QoQ fall in volumes. Gross margins declined by 191bps from 12.9% in 4Q2015.
§  We flag 1) Adverse exchange rate movement, 2) Implementation of international safety standards, 3) Increased age limit of used car and 4) Reduction in import duty as key risks for PSMC.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on April 28, 2016, 07:53:26 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 1Q2016 EPS Rs11.5 (Below our expectations)
(PDF attached)
(Apr 28, 2016)
 
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 1Q2016 result and reported flat earnings of Rs948mn (EPS Rs11.5). This result was below our expectations.
Key takeaways
§  PSMC revenue grew by 2% YoY to Rs19.9bn in 1Q2016 despite 2% decline in volumes to 30,181 units. We attribute increase in revenue to car price hike that was announced in Jan 2016 and low proportion of taxis which were given to Govt. of Punjab at Rs50,000/unit discount.
§  Cost of sales increased more than our expectations and reached at Rs17.8bn thus, gross margins declined by 7bps YoY to 11.0%. We attribute this increase in cost of sales to depreciation of Pak Rupee (PKR) against US dollar (US$) and Japanese Yen (JPY) by 3.0% YoY and 7.0% YoY, respectively.
§  Other income grew by 111% YoY to Rs279mn in 1Q2016, as the company earned interest on advances received from customers owing to strong car demand.
§  Administrative expenses surged 64%, more than our estimation, to reach at Rs442mn.
§  On QoQ basis, revenue of the company posted a decline of 14% due to 18% QoQ fall in volumes. Gross margins declined by 191bps from 12.9% in 4Q2015.
§  We flag 1) Adverse exchange rate movement, 2) Implementation of international safety standards, 3) Increased age limit of used car and 4) Reduction in import duty as key risks for PSMC.

Ab konsi age limit increase ADP for next 5 years is already here
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: R.K on April 29, 2016, 06:28:45 PM
Is now a good time to enter in this script? , keeping in mind that it is at its lowest price
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: thedarkknight on April 29, 2016, 08:52:38 PM
my view is simple, suzuki is the cheapest car around, people will always buy suzuki. The new entries like Audi, volvo, etc are all for the upper class market so the category is toyota or honda. Suzuki and its lower models will always have an appeal, yes the yen is very high right now and it will cut into psmc's margins, yes the rozgar scheme is over, but these things turn around very fast,plus its a dividend giving share, my personal view is accumulate very slowly on every dip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on April 29, 2016, 10:15:03 PM
my view is simple, suzuki is the cheapest car around, people will always buy suzuki. The new entries like Audi, volvo, etc are all for the upper class market so the category is toyota or honda. Suzuki and its lower models will always have an appeal, yes the yen is very high right now and it will cut into psmc's margins, yes the rozgar scheme is over, but these things turn around very fast,plus its a dividend giving share, my personal view is accumulate very slowly on every dip.

Dividend giving   :down:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Valueestimator on April 30, 2016, 12:19:48 PM
cpec will also generate huge demand for autos.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Adnan on April 30, 2016, 01:36:24 PM
cpec will also generate huge demand for autos.

That won't have much impact on PSMC. Truck manufacturers would benefit from that.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on April 30, 2016, 04:06:51 PM
cpec will also generate huge demand for autos.

That won't have much impact on PSMC. Truck manufacturers would benefit from that.

why not ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on May 03, 2016, 01:39:27 AM
They voiced discontent with ADP.

Objective of policy is to create balance between industrial growth and tariffs to ensure sustainability for all stakeholders. Existing Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM’s) in Pakistan were looking for new investment opportunities and expecting incentives at par with potential new entrants. However, there was no incentive for existing OEMs if they invest in new plants/ models. Lack of incentive to existing OEMs is a point of concern for auto industry and we understand that it will affect the desired objective of ADP.

http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Suzuki_Ist_Quarter_2016.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 02:20:58 AM
They voiced discontent with ADP.

Objective of policy is to create balance between industrial growth and tariffs to ensure sustainability for all stakeholders. Existing Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM’s) in Pakistan were looking for new investment opportunities and expecting incentives at par with potential new entrants. However, there was no incentive for existing OEMs if they invest in new plants/ models. Lack of incentive to existing OEMs is a point of concern for auto industry and we understand that it will affect the desired objective of ADP.

http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Suzuki_Ist_Quarter_2016.pdf

rona hee ata hai inko
 uuu
paksuzuki is a national disgrace ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 02:27:00 AM
They voiced discontent with ADP.

Objective of policy is to create balance between industrial growth and tariffs to ensure sustainability for all stakeholders. Existing Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM’s) in Pakistan were looking for new investment opportunities and expecting incentives at par with potential new entrants. However, there was no incentive for existing OEMs if they invest in new plants/ models. Lack of incentive to existing OEMs is a point of concern for auto industry and we understand that it will affect the desired objective of ADP.

http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Suzuki_Ist_Quarter_2016.pdf

rona hee ata hai inko
 uuu
paksuzuki is a national disgrace ...

aik yeh psmc aur doosra gtyr ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 02:35:31 AM
(http://puu.sh/oE4qa/6af4373681.png)

lol look at the jump in admin cost of motorcycle segment ... are they rewarding poor sales with higher salaries ?
or gifting their expensive heavy bikes that no one is buying to their own employees ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: momo on May 03, 2016, 06:04:34 AM
my view is simple, suzuki is the cheapest car around, people will always buy suzuki. The new entries like Audi, volvo, etc are all for the upper class market so the category is toyota or honda. Suzuki and its lower models will always have an appeal, yes the yen is very high right now and it will cut into psmc's margins, yes the rozgar scheme is over, but these things turn around very fast,plus its a dividend giving share, my personal view is accumulate very slowly on every dip.

Who said anything about Audit or Volvo? The manufacturers who are looking to come to market are Nissan/Renault and VW, who all have small cheap priced cars that will compete with Suzuki. Toyota and Honda are also going to introduce cheaper models very soon which will eat into Suzuki's market share.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Sharoze123 on May 03, 2016, 10:57:54 AM
my view is simple, suzuki is the cheapest car around, people will always buy suzuki. The new entries like Audi, volvo, etc are all for the upper class market so the category is toyota or honda. Suzuki and its lower models will always have an appeal, yes the yen is very high right now and it will cut into psmc's margins, yes the rozgar scheme is over, but these things turn around very fast,plus its a dividend giving share, my personal view is accumulate very slowly on every dip.

Who said anything about Audit or Volvo? The manufacturers who are looking to come to market are Nissan/Renault and VW, who all have small cheap priced cars that will compete with Suzuki. Toyota and Honda are also going to introduce cheaper models very soon which will eat into Suzuki's market share.

Ummm, no? Nissan and Renault are competitors of Honda , and most likely that of Honda City. Toyota's Corolla is too entrenched and stable a car to get a thrashing right now and PSMC's Cultus, Bolan, WagonR, Mehran are necessities for most of the middle classed population. As for Indus and HCAR introducing cheaper <1000 CC cars to compete with PSMC, please give me examples and also give me  their motivation to do something as erratic as this?
Bear in mind the motivation has to make sense, especially addressing why they didn't do this before.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 11:35:00 AM
honda can introduce  the brio as a sub 1.5 million choice .. competing with imported vitz waghaira
its produced in both thailand and indonesia so parts shouldnt be a problem
http://www.hondacarindia.com/HondaBrio/index.html

its pretty ugly though

etios liva is a low cost option for toyota but i think they already tried and failed with that ocuple of years ago, and also, its really ugly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Etios
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: akbar.aqil on May 03, 2016, 11:41:47 AM
Yaar I am not holding it but I feel it has huge gap. Should have been 500+ but don't know what is wrong...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 12:08:21 PM
Yaar I am not holding it but I feel it has huge gap. Should have been 500+ but don't know what is wrong...

yen has strengthened massively over the past couple of months
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Sharoze123 on May 03, 2016, 12:14:12 PM
honda can introduce  the brio as a sub 1.5 million choice .. competing with imported vitz waghaira
its produced in both thailand and indonesia so parts shouldnt be a problem
http://www.hondacarindia.com/HondaBrio/index.html

its pretty ugly though

etios liva is a low cost option for toyota but i think they already tried and failed with that ocuple of years ago, and also, its really ugly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Etios

Once again it begs the question, why introduce it now? Whats the change in motivation?
 I really doubt INDU would go for such an option. For now I think they should go for capacity enhancement since their plant is already running at peak utilization and they will also probably change the lights of Corolla and some shit.  The biggest issue with PSMC is that the f**ker is just too volatile with Yen.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 12:44:56 PM
low interest rates, growing economy, guaranteed lower/uncompetitive imports due to new  5 year auto policy, oodles of cash lying around doing nothing
thats the motivation, the reasons that didnt exist before ...

I think toyota would be better off introducing Yaris/vitz instead of going for the shittier low cost etios etc 

i think bumper bhi change kareingay .. and will call it special edition :P
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on May 03, 2016, 01:22:56 PM
low interest rates, growing economy, guaranteed lower/uncompetitive imports due to new  5 year auto policy, oodles of cash lying around doing nothing
thats the motivation, the reasons that didnt exist before ...

I think toyota would be better off introducing Yaris/vitz instead of going for the shittier low cost etios etc 

i think bumper bhi change kareingay .. and will call it special edition :P

They have dropped etios way back and auctioned the vehicle last year(I saw the add) they are going for yaris & vios.Time period is unknown
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 03, 2016, 01:30:57 PM
low interest rates, growing economy, guaranteed lower/uncompetitive imports due to new  5 year auto policy, oodles of cash lying around doing nothing
thats the motivation, the reasons that didnt exist before ...

I think toyota would be better off introducing Yaris/vitz instead of going for the shittier low cost etios etc 

i think bumper bhi change kareingay .. and will call it special edition :P

They have dropped etios way back and auctioned the vehicle last year(I saw the add) they are going for yaris & vios.Time period is unknown

yup, i mentioned it in my previous post that they triend and failed with etios .. had a friend at indus in those days so had some quality "insight" into the company
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: momo on May 04, 2016, 09:40:30 AM
my view is simple, suzuki is the cheapest car around, people will always buy suzuki. The new entries like Audi, volvo, etc are all for the upper class market so the category is toyota or honda. Suzuki and its lower models will always have an appeal, yes the yen is very high right now and it will cut into psmc's margins, yes the rozgar scheme is over, but these things turn around very fast,plus its a dividend giving share, my personal view is accumulate very slowly on every dip.

Who said anything about Audit or Volvo? The manufacturers who are looking to come to market are Nissan/Renault and VW, who all have small cheap priced cars that will compete with Suzuki. Toyota and Honda are also going to introduce cheaper models very soon which will eat into Suzuki's market share.

Ummm, no? Nissan and Renault are competitors of Honda , and most likely that of Honda City. Toyota's Corolla is too entrenched and stable a car to get a thrashing right now and PSMC's Cultus, Bolan, WagonR, Mehran are necessities for most of the middle classed population. As for Indus and HCAR introducing cheaper <1000 CC cars to compete with PSMC, please give me examples and also give me  their motivation to do something as erratic as this?
Bear in mind the motivation has to make sense, especially addressing why they didn't do this before.

Well, things have changed from 5 years ago. Car financing is picking up pace, car sales are increasing every month, the economy is growing at a fast pace, there is a lot of development, CPEC has been initiated, and there is the threat of other carmakers coming into the market. Currently, these three assemblers had arrangements where they didn't step on each others' turfs. Now, that will change as it'll be everyone for themselves as in other markets. Why would they not compete and bring new models if they can make money?

Nissan/Renault make cars in the same class as Toyota and Honda. And Nissan/Renault, along with Toyota and Honda make compact cars internationally, just not in Pakistan. They sell cars cheaper than Pak Suzuki's Mehran in India that have the latest technology. In fact, Renault sells small SUVs for about the same price as a Mehran. There is plenty of room for new automakers and they have plenty in their arsenal to target the middle class that has been living off Suzuki's obsolete products. It's the same middle class in other Asian countries that's buying much better cars at the same price.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on May 04, 2016, 10:16:08 AM
The only thing id lke to see is for lower middle class in Pakistan to be able to afford Yaris, City. mid middle class - Corolla, Civic and Sunny and upper middle class Honda accord, Camry and Altima.
where have the successive rulers taken this country to is just ........
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ally on May 05, 2016, 11:05:07 AM
while new entrants do pose a thread to suzuki's market share but suzuki can also diversify itself with already available products; and apparently they have started doing so by introducing high end Kizashi and high cc bikes.

But this is a fact that Suzuki's image in Pakistan is that of economy car provider and will take some serious effort to break into the higher income segments and Suzuki also needs to improve the quality and look of existing product to keep the market share in case of new competition in low income segment of the market.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 05, 2016, 12:58:49 PM
while new entrants do pose a thread to suzuki's market share but suzuki can also diversify itself with already available products; and apparently they have started doing so by introducing high end Kizashi and high cc bikes.

But this is a fact that Suzuki's image in Pakistan is that of economy car provider and will take some serious effort to break into the higher income segments and Suzuki also needs to improve the quality and look of existing product to keep the market share in case of new competition in low income segment of the market.

kizashi pricing is retarded
you can buy an A3 cheaper
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ally on May 05, 2016, 02:29:00 PM
true the price is very high and with the likes to Audi, BMW and others in the high income target market already establishing foot print in Pakistan Suzuki needs to come up with a better product at a better price. Suzuki's image in Pakistan is diminutive in terms of high end product and a jump from 0.5m item to whooping 5m is not going to be an easy sell. Besides market is very small for this price tag.

Its good that Suzuki is thinking long term but the product on offer along with the targeted segment is not the right one. they need to target segment that can afford cars from 1million to 3 million with good product, huge marketing and image building. Swift & cultus are catering to low end of this 1m to 3m segment and cultus needs a major uplift or replacement; there was something going on about discontinuing/replacing cultus.

Similarly bikes are in the range of very very limited number of potential buyers except for one.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on May 09, 2016, 03:47:06 PM
According to news reports, Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) is ready to invest US$460mn in Pakistan if the govt. provides the right incentives to existing auto companies under the new auto policy. Investment in state-of-the art new plant on an urgent basis and introduction of four new models by 2018 is on the cards if required incentives are offered. To point out, PSMC will likely be introducing two new models by 2017-18.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Atif1 on May 09, 2016, 10:27:24 PM
Pak Suzuki Motors Ltd: Apreciating Yen to weigh heavy

 We rein state Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) in FSL’s auto space with a ‘Neutral’ stance. Though earning attrition is expected in CY16 owing to conclusion of ‘Apna Rozgar Scheme’, we expect earnings to normalize at higher levels than yesteryears. We believe the company is better positioned than other auto players owing to its monopoly in lower segments which is better able to devour on increasing consumer financing. However, appreciating Yen would remain a constraining factor on company’s bottomline growth. Based on the said we set our Dec-16 TP at Rs355.6/sh and expected earnings of Rs50.3/40.0/36.2/sh in CY16/17/18.

Foundation Securities
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ally on May 11, 2016, 12:43:06 PM
considering PAMA data Suzuki April'16 unit sold come to around 9k compared to 30k units in Q1'16. This is 11% lower than average of Q1'16.
Drop is mainly Bolan and Ravi lower sales after conclusion of Punjab Government scheme. If Suzuki is able to repeat April'16 numbers then Q2'16 EPS should be above Rs10/share and H1'16 around Rs. 21/share.

> 15% decrease in profitability against 11% reduction in sales to compensate for fixed cost that will not reduce significatly and exchange rate variation.
> could not find out Jummy, APV etc. sales in PAMA report, not sure how are these reported but impact should not be significant.
> if half yearly EPS is 21 and yearly above 40 then current market price carries less than 10 price earning ratio.
> Motorbikes segment has been assumed flat year over year.

   Q2'16 at April Numbers   April'16   Q1'16   H1'2016
Swift    987     329     1,014     2,001
Cultus    4,581     1,527     3,989     8,570
WagonR    2,775     925     2,792     5,567
Mehran    9,606     3,202     10,350     19,956
Bolan    4,284     1,428     5,832     10,116
Ravi    4,662     1,554     6,396     11,058
Totla Four wheels    26,895     8,965     30,373     57,268
Drop QoQ   -11%         
EPS Q2'16 drop by 15%    9.8        11.5     21.31


Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ksenewb on May 11, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
considering PAMA data Suzuki April'16 unit sold come to around 9k compared to 30k units in Q1'16. This is 11% lower than average of Q1'16.
Drop is mainly Bolan and Ravi lower sales after conclusion of Punjab Government scheme. If Suzuki is able to repeat April'16 numbers then Q2'16 EPS should be above Rs10/share and H1'16 around Rs. 21/share.

> 15% decrease in profitability against 11% reduction in sales to compensate for fixed cost that will not reduce significatly and exchange rate variation.
> could not find out Jummy, APV etc. sales in PAMA report, not sure how are these reported but impact should not be significant.
> if half yearly EPS is 21 and yearly above 40 then current market price carries less than 10 price earning ratio.
> Motorbikes segment has been assumed flat year over year.

   Q2'16 at April Numbers   April'16   Q1'16   H1'2016
Swift    987     329     1,014     2,001
Cultus    4,581     1,527     3,989     8,570
WagonR    2,775     925     2,792     5,567
Mehran    9,606     3,202     10,350     19,956
Bolan    4,284     1,428     5,832     10,116
Ravi    4,662     1,554     6,396     11,058
Totla Four wheels    26,895     8,965     30,373     57,268
Drop QoQ   -11%         
EPS Q2'16 drop by 15%    9.8        11.5     21.31

PE ratio of 10 is very high for a company with lot of currency risk.. and uncertain growth prospects.. should be max 7.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ally on May 11, 2016, 01:54:17 PM
@ ksenewb; you are right about 10 being high; however 7 is on the lower side. KSE is trading at around 8.5 PER; PSMC has the biggest market share in auto sector; another government scheme is never far away considering elections are approaching in less than 24 months time (provided there is no political mishap in the meanwhile).

Different houses are giving expected yearly EPS of  50 to 65 (i have done a very raw analysis; dont have the required information and probably the will  huhu to do detailed working).

Fundamentals-wise PSMC is in relatively good shape and not trading at very high PER.

Biggest concern in the short remains to be exchange risk as you mentioned yourself; medium term risk comes from new entrant coming into the market; but it appears Suzuki has already started lobbying and is also working on various options.

In their quarterly directors report there is talk of new policy being biased towards new entrant and that Suzuki could also invest if given same incentives as being offered to new entrants; there is also reference of cheaper parts available in India. If allowed, could impact the cost of production and as well as consumer price.

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on May 11, 2016, 07:50:01 PM
considering PAMA data Suzuki April'16 unit sold come to around 9k compared to 30k units in Q1'16. This is 11% lower than average of Q1'16.
Drop is mainly Bolan and Ravi lower sales after conclusion of Punjab Government scheme. If Suzuki is able to repeat April'16 numbers then Q2'16 EPS should be above Rs10/share and H1'16 around Rs. 21/share.

> 15% decrease in profitability against 11% reduction in sales to compensate for fixed cost that will not reduce significatly and exchange rate variation.
> could not find out Jummy, APV etc. sales in PAMA report, not sure how are these reported but impact should not be significant.
> if half yearly EPS is 21 and yearly above 40 then current market price carries less than 10 price earning ratio.
> Motorbikes segment has been assumed flat year over year.

   Q2'16 at April Numbers   April'16   Q1'16   H1'2016
Swift    987     329     1,014     2,001
Cultus    4,581     1,527     3,989     8,570
WagonR    2,775     925     2,792     5,567
Mehran    9,606     3,202     10,350     19,956
Bolan    4,284     1,428     5,832     10,116
Ravi    4,662     1,554     6,396     11,058
Totla Four wheels    26,895     8,965     30,373     57,268
Drop QoQ   -11%         
EPS Q2'16 drop by 15%    9.8        11.5     21.31

APV & jimny are not localy made
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 18, 2016, 03:35:55 PM
http://www.pakwheels.com/blog/spy-shots-is-this-the-new-suzuki-alto-that-will-be-replacing-suzuki-mehran-in-pakistan/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=05-17-16&utm_campaign=newsletters


fugly
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on May 18, 2016, 11:30:59 PM
IN FOCUS

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): Estimates revised down on adverse JPY movement

§ We update our investment case for PSMC as we now expect JPY to appreciate by ~6.9%YoY against USD (previously: 3.7%YoY appreciation) during CY16 on average. The unexpected strengthening of JPY against USD since Dec’15 has led to margin erosion for the automobile industry, particularly PSMC (down 1.9ppsQoQ).
§ On the other hand, PSMC sales volumes continue to lead industry growth (ex. the Apna Rozgar effect) with total company volumes likely settling at higher new normal around 8.8k units per month.
§ Amid the improving domestic automobile demand and enhanced access to auto credit, we expect the strong volumetric sales momentum to continue and compensate (to some extent) for the decline in gross margins.
§ The scrip has shed 24%CYTD owing to the adverse movement in FX market and the announcement of auto policy (ADP FY17-21). Accommodating the revised JPY and sales volumes estimates, we trim down our TP to PKR460/sh (previously PKR483/sh), offering an upside of 22% from last closing.
§ Another cycle of the Apna Rozgar scheme, new model launches or favorable changes in the auto policy (likely to be enacted with federal budget FY17) will unlock further upside to our earnings estimates.

BMA
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Pukhtoontrader on May 18, 2016, 11:46:40 PM
600 aur 700 ke target se kahan agaya yh share. Bohat bura huwa is ke sath  :thumbsdown_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ally on May 19, 2016, 11:55:04 AM
@ SBM thanks for your information of proposed FED of 25/bag on cement; could you kindly check and advise if anything special going on in the budget with respect to auto sector especially car assemblers; PSMC, HCAR and INDU, all have been very volatile for last few days.

> Yen appears to have settled around 108-110 mark for the time being and have seen several forecast of stronger dollar in the coming weeks and months.
> Demand is expected to stay strong excluding punjab government scheme which should only effect PSMC anyways.
> Even though Civic launch has been postponed till late 2016 but sales numbers are still very good.
> New auto-policy is still to attract actual and serious investment for assembly by car markers; current players are already lobbing to get something for themselves. Even if there are new entrants in the business it would take at least three to four years before any new cars entry into the market.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on May 20, 2016, 12:41:49 AM
@ SBM thanks for your information of proposed FED of 25/bag on cement; could you kindly check and advise if anything special going on in the budget with respect to auto sector especially car assemblers; PSMC, HCAR and INDU, all have been very volatile for last few days.

> Yen appears to have settled around 108-110 mark for the time being and have seen several forecast of stronger dollar in the coming weeks and months.
> Demand is expected to stay strong excluding punjab government scheme which should only effect PSMC anyways.
> Even though Civic launch has been postponed till late 2016 but sales numbers are still very good.
> New auto-policy is still to attract actual and serious investment for assembly by car markers; current players are already lobbing to get something for themselves. Even if there are new entrants in the business it would take at least three to four years before any new cars entry into the market.

not aware of any such development, will post if i see anything
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 23, 2016, 03:27:09 PM
PSMC being fully built up for 500 dears  :fingerscrossed1: :lazy2:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 24, 2016, 11:32:26 AM
PSMC being fully built up for 500 dears  :fingerscrossed1: :lazy2:

PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>>>>> :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: thedarkknight on May 24, 2016, 01:25:14 PM
did the last dividend come in?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 24, 2016, 01:27:16 PM
PSMC being fully built up for 500 dears  :fingerscrossed1: :lazy2:

PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>>>>> :thumbsup_anim:

It's going dears >>>>> 500  :thumbsup_anim:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 24, 2016, 02:41:55 PM
PSMC being fully built up for 500 dears  :fingerscrossed1: :lazy2:

PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>>>>> :thumbsup_anim:

It's going dears >>>>> 500  :thumbsup_anim:

PSMC capped >>>>>>>> welldone >>>>>>> 500  :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :dance :dance
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: akbar.aqil on May 24, 2016, 04:01:05 PM
Should have been trading at 500+ yaar. Very slow movement....
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Adnan on May 24, 2016, 08:31:10 PM
Should have been trading at 500+ yaar. Very slow movement....

Why should it trade at 500+?

If 500+ is the fair value of PSMC then what is the fair value of INDU?  :skeptic:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on May 25, 2016, 01:53:15 AM
PSMC being fully built up for 500 dears  :fingerscrossed1: :lazy2:

PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>>>>> :thumbsup_anim:

It's going dears >>>>> 500  :thumbsup_anim:

PSMC capped >>>>>>>> welldone >>>>>>> 500  :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :thumbsup_anim: :thumbsup_anim: :dance :dance

CAP  :o

Were you dreaming?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 25, 2016, 01:10:20 PM
PSMC >>>>>>>>>> 500 >>>>>>>>  :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: J on May 25, 2016, 04:13:33 PM
globalinvestor bhai....what has made the share rise?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 26, 2016, 02:05:01 PM
globalinvestor bhai....what has made the share rise?

PSMC >>>>>>>>>> 500 >>>>>>>>  :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup:

PSMC shall be taking the benefit from YEN trigger as well as Increasing Market Share with Huge Corporate Orders including upcoming Humongous Orders for Cabs nearing Elections and So Onnnnnnnnnn >>>>>>> 500 short term and 700+ LT dears  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: J on May 26, 2016, 02:22:14 PM
TNX :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 26, 2016, 02:25:53 PM
globalinvestor bhai....what has made the share rise?

PSMC >>>>>>>>>> 500 >>>>>>>>  :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup:

PSMC shall be taking the benefit from YEN trigger as well as Increasing Market Share with Huge Corporate Orders including upcoming Humongous Orders for Cabs nearing Elections and So Onnnnnnnnnn >>>>>>> 500 short term and 700+ LT dears  :biggthumpup:

Aaj 430 per lay jaen ---- kal 450+ maen milay gi dears >>>>>>>> PSMC to hit 500 within no time  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ally on May 27, 2016, 04:29:34 PM
Is it technical correction today or something fundamentals related/news.

Luckily i managed to get out at 416 but not sure what is the medium term perspective; AKD has given EPS forecast of over 60 and still rate as a buy.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on May 31, 2016, 12:51:53 PM
PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>> The market leader Suzuki saw a 41 per cent YoY increase with sales units of 109,628 in 2016 and thanks to Punjab's taxi scheme.  :fingerscrossed1: :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on June 13, 2016, 09:17:07 PM
Any news regarding rozgar scheme in Punjab budget?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on June 16, 2016, 06:18:12 AM
PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>> The market leader Suzuki saw a 41 per cent YoY increase with sales units of 109,628 in 2016 and thanks to Punjab's taxi scheme.  :fingerscrossed1: :biggthumpup:
465~470 max if buying comes in it. Forget 5oo+.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rizanam on June 27, 2016, 05:11:48 AM
PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>> The market leader Suzuki saw a 41 per cent YoY increase with sales units of 109,628 in 2016 and thanks to Punjab's taxi scheme.  :fingerscrossed1: :biggthumpup:
465~470 max if buying comes in it. Forget 5oo+.

Punjab's taxi schemes cancelled ? is it true ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nma on June 27, 2016, 01:44:45 PM
Dear Boyses,

A lot of people had been buzzing about the end of the Punjab Taxi Scheme and stuff. And they had been claiming that PSMC and INDU will go down with appreciating yen. Well, tell u what. It's not the end of these Japenese assemblers yet. There is a reason as to seven analysts are offering a 12 month TP of Rs 480 median with a possible high of Rs 780 and a possible low of Rs 355.

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=psmc:KAR

In fact, there must be more than 1 reason. The predictions for EPS may go down. But does the player really care abt eps all the time? He just needs a reason to ridiculously drive the price in either direction. Yahan tou PIBTL jese sattay shares chal jatay hain. Arif Habib is also predicying a Dec 16 TP of abt 500 in additon to the unnamed analysts mentioned in the link above.

Anyway, the downside is very low from the current price. My stance is BUY. I, myself, am buying at falling rates. And let me tell u a few reasons for its upside. For starters, PSMC is in the MSCI index. A new model is on the cards right now with the end of cultus and we can't be so sure abpout the market response to the new model. But d share price is most likely to incraese with the launch of the new model.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rizanam on June 28, 2016, 01:15:05 AM
Dear Boyses,

A lot of people had been buzzing about the end of the Punjab Taxi Scheme and stuff. And they had been claiming that PSMC and INDU will go down with appreciating yen. Well, tell u what. It's not the end of these Japenese assemblers yet. There is a reason as to seven analysts are offering a 12 month TP of Rs 480 median with a possible high of Rs 780 and a possible low of Rs 355.

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=psmc:KAR

In fact, there must be more than 1 reason. The predictions for EPS may go down. But does the player really care abt eps all the time? He just needs a reason to ridiculously drive the price in either direction. Yahan tou PIBTL jese sattay shares chal jatay hain. Arif Habib is also predicying a Dec 16 TP of abt 500 in additon to the unnamed analysts mentioned in the link above.

Anyway, the downside is very low from the current price. My stance is BUY. I, myself, am buying at falling rates. And let me tell u a few reasons for its upside. For starters, PSMC is in the MSCI index. A new model is on the cards right now with the end of cultus and we can't be so sure abpout the market response to the new model. But d share price is most likely to incraese with the launch of the new model.

Good Work....One should hold and accumulate it.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on June 28, 2016, 02:44:21 AM
PSMC @ Catch for 500 >>>> The market leader Suzuki saw a 41 per cent YoY increase with sales units of 109,628 in 2016 and thanks to Punjab's taxi scheme.  :fingerscrossed1: :biggthumpup:
465~470 max if buying comes in it. Forget 5oo+.

Punjab's taxi schemes cancelled ? is it true ?

 :good :thanks:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on June 28, 2016, 07:06:47 PM
Psmc seems has bottomed out. Technical experts n gurus r requested to give their inputs. Regards.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: usman_799 on July 04, 2016, 12:06:18 AM
PSMC main iss rate pr buy banti hai?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on July 15, 2016, 11:12:36 AM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/211wdac.jpg)
(http://i65.tinypic.com/k7qx2.jpg)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on July 27, 2016, 03:32:03 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): Earnings expected at PKR18.3/sh for 1HCY16
§  We expect 2QCY16 earnings of PSMC to clock in at PKR555mn (EPS: PKR6.7), down 41%QoQ, taking cumulative 1HCY16 NPAT to PKR1.4bn (EPS: PKR18.3), down 38%YoY.
§  The significant decline in earnings can be attributed to the decrease in volumetric sales of the company post conclusion of the Apna Rozgar scheme.
§  Moreover, gross margins are expected to decline by 2.6ppsQoQ to ~10.1% during 2QCY16 amid lagged impact of 5.2% appreciation in JPY against the PKR.
§  We have also incorporated the impact of 3% super tax in our earnings estimate, resulting in bottom-line attrition by PKR261mn (PKR3.2/sh).
§  In near term, the scrip price performance is expected to closely track the movements in JPY where increased stimulus from BOJ may trigger JPY depreciation, likely to benefit company margins.

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on July 27, 2016, 03:32:56 PM
PSMC: 1H2016 EPS likely to drop by 36% YoY to Rs18.7 - 'Hold' intact
 
July 27, 2016 (JS Research)
 
PSMC is scheduled to announce its 1H2016 results on July 28, 2016, where we expect the company to announce earnings of Rs1,539mn (EPS: Rs18.70), down by 36% YoY.
The company's unit sales dropped by 9.3% YoY to 57,303 units during 1H2016 due to the absence of the Punjab Government's cab scheme.
We anticipate gross margins to recede to 10.7% in 1H2016 compared to 12.7% in same period last year.
On a QoQ basis, we anticipate 2Q2016 earnings to decline by 38% to Rs7.19/share, led by decline in units sales and contraction in gross margin.
We reiterate our 'Hold' rating on PSMC with a Target Price of Rs418. The stock is currently trading at a 2016E P/E of 9.6x.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on July 28, 2016, 01:07:00 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/23ma1ao.jpg)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: The_Dot on July 28, 2016, 01:15:32 PM
420z mein Support ki Aisi ki Taisi ho gayee...

Where do you guys see it settling?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SMF-M on July 28, 2016, 01:36:03 PM
373 maybe
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: The_Dot on July 28, 2016, 02:33:05 PM
373 maybe

Na kar yar. Just wonder why don't I follow my gut feeling. Had a plan to take exit in mid 430z today. however .....

Was reading somewhere that Japanese goormint and banks walay yen ka kuch kar rahay hain... and it will be good good too. :o
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 28, 2016, 05:57:50 PM
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: Post-Rozgar drag to continue

PSMC is slated to release 2QCY16 earnings today where we expect them to post NPAT of PkR838mn (EPS:PkR10.18/sh.) recording a steep slide of 43%YoY. 31%YoY/30%QoQ decline in revenues (expected at PkR14.07bn for 1QCY16F) is a factor of decline in sales units (27,122 units sold vs. 30,233 units sold during 1QCY15), due to the absence of Punjab Rozgar Scheme (7,727 units sold under the scheme in 1QCY15). Additionally, GM depressed to 10.9% vs. 11.0% on the back of reduced production, while exchange losses raised financial charges significantly (JpY appreciated 8.32% against US$ during 1QCY16) while continuation of punitive taxation measures (super tax) depressed the bottom-line further. Growth in unit sales on Ex-Rozgar basis of 16.4%, stems from 49%/41%/27%/20%YoY increase in sales of Wagon R/Cultus/Swift/Mehran, countered by a 14%YoY decline in ex-Rozgar Ravi and Bolan sales for 1QCY16 presenting a challenge for the OEM. While LCV sales are expected to form the bedrock of infrastructure related demand growth, we believe the strong position of PSMC in the mid-market passenger segment should cushion earnings in the event that LCV sales demand lags behind. Currently trading at PE's of 7.3x/7.1x for CY16E/17F, we have a BUY stance on the stock with Dec'16 TP of 661/sh.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nma on July 28, 2016, 08:30:57 PM
I just noticed that one of the JS funds has completely offloaded its stake in the company. There were 8 JS funds involved and now just 7 are left invested in the company. PSMC might face tough time in immediate future.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 28, 2016, 09:44:16 PM
Topline Result Review (Jul 28, 2016)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): 2Q2016 EPS Rs5.9 (Below market consensus)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 2Q2016 result and reported earnings of Rs488mn (EPS Rs5.9). This result was below market expectations.
Key takeaways
Company’s sales fell 7% YoY to Rs19.0bn in 2Q2016. This decline was mainly due to drop in volumetric sales post culmination of Apna Rozgar Taxi Scheme of the Punjab Govt.
PSMC’s sales in the outgoing quarter were 26,011 units, a decline of 19% YoY (down 11% YoY to 56,192 units in 1H2016). Excluding Taxi units (Ravi and Bolan), sales were robust as they increased 23% YoY to 16,911 units in 2Q2016 (17% YoY to 34,864 units in 1H2016).
Gross profit fell 39% YoY to Rs1.8bn in the outgoing quarter while gross margins contracted by 5ppts to 9.4%. This can be attributed to ~9% appreciation of Japanese Yen (JPY) against the local currency. To point out, sudden appreciation of Yen was due to Brexit, fears of which have eased out. Moreover, Shinzo Abe’s announcement of US$265bn stimulus package for Japanese economy is expected to keep Yen appreciation in check, we believe.
PSMC reported tax expense of Rs600mn, which resulted in effective tax rate of ~55%. This was higher than expectations and includes the impact of super tax, we believe. This higher than anticipated effective tax rate resulted in lower earnings in the outgoing quarter.
On QoQ basis, revenue fell 5% due to 13.8% decline in volumes. Gross margins contracted 1.7ppts from 11% in 1Q2016.
We flag 1) adverse exchange rate movement, 2) implementation of international safety standards, and 3) reduction in import duty as key risks for PSMC.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 29, 2016, 05:52:27 PM
PSMC: 1H2016 EPS at Rs17.44, down 41% YoY
(1H2016, EPS=Rs17.44, Cash Payout=Nil)
July 28, 2016 ( JS Research )

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 1H2016 result today, posting a PAT of Rs1,435mn (EPS: Rs17.44), down by 41% YoY. For 2Q2016, the company posted PAT of Rs488mn (EPS: 5.93), down by 67% YoY/49% QoQ.
Sales during 1H2016 declined by 3% YoY due to decline in volumes by 9.3% YoY, due solely to the completion of the cab scheme in Jan/Feb-16, which resulted in Bolan and Ravi sales dipping by 37% and 34%, respectively. Conversely, all other variants posted volumetric growth during the period. Due to changing product mix towards higher priced cars, the overall decline in net revenues was lesser than decline in volumes. Also, gross margins fell by over 250bps during 1H2016 due to appreciating JPY/US$ during the period, coupled with increasing steel prices. The company also booked Super Tax in the quarter, resulting in effective tax rate of 42% for 1H2016.
At current levels PSMC is trading at 2016E P/E of 9.6x. We have a 'Hold' rating on the stock with a TP of Rs418.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 29, 2016, 10:08:32 PM
PSMC: 6MCY16 EPS clocks in at PkR17.44/sh, down 41% YoY
 
Ø  Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 6MCY16 results where it recorded an EPS of PkR17.44/sh vs. PkR29.41/sh in the corresponding period last year (CPLY). We attribute the decline in 6MCY16 sales of 3%YoY due to 11% reduction in sales volumes, contributed majorly by Bolan and Ravi (down 38%YoY and 34%YoY respectively).
Ø  PSMC faces attrition in volumes due to the implications of the new Auto Development Policy 2016-21 with local OEMs passing on some benefit of the reduction in import duties.
Ø  On a quarterly basis, the company has reported 2QCY16 sales of PkR19bn, down 7%YoY/5%QoQ attributed to volumetric decline in Bolan (down 52%YoY) and Ravi (down 50%YoY) post “ApnaRozgar Scheme”.
Ø  Gross Margin of the company has declined to 9% in 2QCY16 vs. 14% CPLY which we attribute to 6%YoY steel price increase to US$389.86/ton.
Ø  Effective tax rate of 2QFY16 is reported at 55% vs. 34% CPLY significantly higher than 32% in 1QFY16. The increase in the tax rate is accredited to the imposition of 3% super tax.
Ø  We are in the process of updating our financial model on PSMC. Currently, our Dec16 TP stands at PkR450/sh, providing an upside of 9%.

Shajar
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on August 01, 2016, 07:50:19 PM
Pakistan Flash Note : (Aug 01, 2016)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): Price increase by 3% w.e.f. Aug 1, 2016
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) has increased prices of all its car models by 3%, which translates into Rs20,000 – 30,000/- per unit, according to company’s website.
This is the first across the board price increase announced by PSMC in 2016. Earlier this year, price of one of its models, Suzuki Wagon R, was increased by 2%.
This will help PSMC maintain its margins, which had come under pressure of late. Due to Yen appreciation, the company’s margins in 1H2016 were 10% compared to 14% during 2015.
We had already assumed price increase of 3% for 3Q2016. Further, we expect PSMC will likely increase prices by 2% in addition to the increase announced today during the remainder of the year. We forecast the company to maintain margins of around 10-11% during 2H2016.
We are currently projecting PSMC’s 2016/17 earnings per share of Rs36/Rs45 and the stock currently trades at 2017 PE of 8.9x. We maintain a ‘Buy’ stance on the stock.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: rsuleman on August 02, 2016, 03:43:44 AM
Cost of cars: Pak Suzuki Motor increases prices by 3%
By Farhan Zaheer
Published: August 2, 2016
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1153860/cost-cars-pak-suzuki-motor-increases-prices-3/

KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – Pakistan’s top car maker by market share – has increased prices by 3% with effect from August 1, according to information shared by official dealers.

It translates into a price hike of between Rs 20,000 and Rs 30,000 on all its car models.

The company’s share price increased 3% on Monday, finishing at Rs413.5. The benchmark KSE 100-share Index went up 0.69% in a bullish day for investors.

This price increase is the first for 2016 that affects every model of the company. Earlier in the year, it had increased the price of Suzuki Wagon R by 2%.

When contacted by The Express Tribune via phone, PSMC spokesperson Shafiq Shaikh promised to respond in 10 minutes. However, he did not give his comments despite repeated phone calls. Analysts say the price increase will help PSMC maintain its margins. Owing to recent appreciation of the Japanese yen, which picked up pace in the wake of Brexit, the company’s margins in the first half of 2016 were 10% compared to 14% in 2015, according to a Topline Securities report.

Some analysts had expected the company to make an increase in car prices. “We had already assumed a price increase of 3% for the third quarter of 2016,” the report said.

It added PSMC would likely increase prices by another 2% during the remainder of the year. “We forecast that the company will maintain margins of around 10-11% during the second half of 2016.”

PSMC did not receive the support it wanted in the new auto policy. Moreover, the yen was appreciating due to which the company was resorting to the price increase, Sherman Securities analyst Sadiq Samin told The Express Tribune.

“A lot will depend on the volumes of the company because the Punjab taxi scheme is now over and it will have to bank solely on natural sales in coming months,” said Samin.

The price increase would not hurt sales of the company because there was no competition in the small car category in Pakistan, he added.

Last week, PSMC announced its second-quarter (Apr-Jun 2016) results and posted a profit of Rs 488 million, down a massive 67% from Rs1.47 billion in the same quarter of previous year.

Sales fell 7% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs19 billion, which was mainly due to a drop in volumetric sales after the end of Apna Rozgar Taxi Scheme of the Punjab government. The company sold 26,011 units in the second quarter, a decline of 19% YoY.

Excluding taxi units (Ravi and Bolan), sales were robust as they increased 23% YoY to 16,911 units in the quarter.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 2nd, 2016.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 02, 2016, 10:00:11 AM
PSMC has recovered the whole two bloody  lower locks. Its as if the dismal result meant nothing and here we have HINO :(. two locks and still there.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: The_Dot on August 02, 2016, 10:53:30 AM
PSMC has recovered the whole two bloody  lower locks. Its as if the dismal result meant nothing and here we have HINO :(. two locks and still there.

PSMC saalay ne bahut baRa dhoka de diya... as I sold at 404 yesterday... it jumped up.  :@

However, just found out that it has increased prices by 3%.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on August 02, 2016, 05:31:22 PM
PSMC has recovered the whole two bloody  lower locks. Its as if the dismal result meant nothing and here we have HINO :(. two locks and still there.

PSMC saalay ne bahut baRa dhoka de diya... as I sold at 404 yesterday... it jumped up.  :@

However, just found out that it has increased prices by 3%.
Bros: always play against the crowd mentality; you will win. Bought 20K during LL fiasco & sold today UL. Now let's watch. Only 200K of cheaper rates is with public now.  :good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on August 10, 2016, 09:56:10 AM
Carmakers get stay order against auto policy: Two key players in the automobile industry (Indus Motor and Pak Suzuki Motor Company) have challenged the new auto policy and got a stay order from the Sindh High Court against its implementation, indicating they are not immediately inclined towards offering technologically improved and cheaper vehicles. The new auto policy, besides giving guidelines on timely delivery to customers, calls for the development and enforcement of safety regulations, compulsory installation of immobilizers in vehicles to stop incidences of theft and putting in place a product recall system in line with global practices.
Source: http://tribune.com.pk/story/1159070/court-stops-implementation-carmakers-get-stay-order-auto-policy/

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on August 17, 2016, 09:27:42 AM
Suzuki, Toyota seem unable to justify recent price hike: Pak Suzki Motor Company (PSMC) and Indus Motor Company (IMC) seem unable to justify recent increase in prices of their cars as they did not explain the reasons behind the move to Engineering Development Board (EDB) despite many letters and reminders.‘EDB has sent letters and reminders to both the auto assemblers asking them to furnish the reasons behind the recent price hike. But both the companies have not responded yet’, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of EDB, Tariq Ejaz Chaudhary told.
Source: http://dailytimes.com.pk/business/17-Aug-16/suzuki-toyota-seem-unable-to-justify-recent-price-hike
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: GlobalInvestor on August 24, 2016, 11:54:17 AM
globalinvestor bhai....what has made the share rise?

PSMC >>>>>>>>>> 500 >>>>>>>>  :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup:

PSMC shall be taking the benefit from YEN trigger as well as Increasing Market Share with Huge Corporate Orders including upcoming Humongous Orders for Cabs nearing Elections and So Onnnnnnnnnn >>>>>>> 500 short term and 700+ LT dears  :biggthumpup:

Aaj 430 per lay jaen ---- kal 450+ maen milay gi dears >>>>>>>> PSMC to hit 500 within no time  :biggthumpup:

PSMC profit booking begins until it's TP, friends are advised to please start booking their well earned profits --- now the accumulation is on it ways in ICI for 600+ in sha Allah good luck  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: The_Dot on August 24, 2016, 02:14:58 PM
globalinvestor bhai....what has made the share rise?

PSMC >>>>>>>>>> 500 >>>>>>>>  :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup:

PSMC shall be taking the benefit from YEN trigger as well as Increasing Market Share with Huge Corporate Orders including upcoming Humongous Orders for Cabs nearing Elections and So Onnnnnnnnnn >>>>>>> 500 short term and 700+ LT dears  :biggthumpup:

Aaj 430 per lay jaen ---- kal 450+ maen milay gi dears >>>>>>>> PSMC to hit 500 within no time  :biggthumpup:

PSMC profit booking begins until it's TP, friends are advised to please start booking their well earned profits --- now the accumulation is on it ways in ICI for 600+ in sha Allah good luck  :biggthumpup:

Hum se tu Foundation Edge k Monsieur Zubair ne nikalva liya, right after result. :/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on August 24, 2016, 06:47:58 PM
globalinvestor bhai....what has made the share rise?

PSMC >>>>>>>>>> 500 >>>>>>>>  :thumbsup_anim: :biggthumpup:

PSMC shall be taking the benefit from YEN trigger as well as Increasing Market Share with Huge Corporate Orders including upcoming Humongous Orders for Cabs nearing Elections and So Onnnnnnnnnn >>>>>>> 500 short term and 700+ LT dears  :biggthumpup:

Aaj 430 per lay jaen ---- kal 450+ maen milay gi dears >>>>>>>> PSMC to hit 500 within no time  :biggthumpup:

PSMC profit booking begins until it's TP, friends are advised to please start booking their well earned profits --- now the accumulation is on it ways in ICI for 600+ in sha Allah good luck  :biggthumpup:

Hum se tu Foundation Edge k Monsieur Zubair ne nikalva liya, right after result. :/
Don't panic pls. It is  not expected to go above 532~540 till next 3 months. Wait to cool down.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on August 29, 2016, 07:56:25 PM
Capital expenditure contracted for but not incurred amounted to Rs.1,719 million (December 31,
2015: Rs.1,191 million).

http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Suzuki_2016_Half_Yearly.pdf

However, sales volume of Company other than taxi scheme increased by 23.5%,

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: TipuSultan2016 on August 31, 2016, 01:42:16 PM
Any idea why it's gaining so much momentum despite poor H1 performance?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on August 31, 2016, 02:29:02 PM
The yen has weakened alot in these past two days.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 20, 2016, 12:58:31 AM
wagonr sales crossed cultus for the first time in aug
hopefully this would be the beginnig of the end of cultus - a car introduced 15 years ago as a new model when it was already 15 years old
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on September 21, 2016, 09:17:36 AM
During my recent visit to North, I noticed that in plain areas of KPK,  Suzuki products are preferred choice of the people.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 21, 2016, 12:42:41 PM
During my recent visit to North, I noticed that in plain areas of KPK,  Suzuki products are preferred choice of the people.

 :[

suzuki sells the most in the country
it obviously is the choice of the ppl everywhere ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jamalakhter on September 21, 2016, 02:37:05 PM
During my recent visit to North, I noticed that in plain areas of KPK,  Suzuki products are preferred choice of the people.
                                  majboori ka nam shukria
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 07, 2016, 06:54:58 PM
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: Safety in Numbers

 
Amending our estimates for CY17/18/19F on the back of a sobering 1HCY17 result and rolling forward our TP, we retain a bullish outlook based on: 1) stable demand growth emanating from 12%YoY growth (50%YoY for CY16F ex-rozgar scheme sales) in the LCV segment (Bolan and Ravi) and 7%YoY growth (at 12%YoY for CY16F) in the passenger car space through to CY20F, 2) PSMC's ability to pass on at least 70% of weighed average cost increases to the end consumer keeping margins aligned, and 3) relative price competitive nature of offering grounded in domestic supply chains, relatively arduous for new entrants to emulate from the get go. Moreover, channel checks and discussions with individuals working in the automotive supply chain reveal the firming up of plans to launch the Celerio to replace the 16yr old Cultus. While preliminary production phase for the new variant seems to be underway on a test run basis, we believe the new offering may be priced at a discount or matching the Cultus (average selling ex-dealer price of PkR1.12mn), where a sensitivity working shows potential to contribute PkR1.75-9.06/sh. to CY17F earnings, which we have not incorporated in current estimates, awaiting confirmation of the same. Highlighting threats from new entrants (particularly Chinese import offerings in similar categories), any adverse policies regarding imports, and inking of FTA's with price competitive auto exporters as detriments to sales growth. Anticipating additional price hikes to offerrings, and highlighting the launch of new models as a catalyst, we push for a bullish stance on the stock, which trades at a CY16E/17F PE of 10.2/10.0x. Our FCFF based rolled forward TP of PkR669/sh. amounts to an Accumulate stance and 18% upside to last close.
 
CY16F Earnings: We expect PSMC to sell 109k units for the full year, marking an 18%YoY decline, where the removal of Rozgar Scheme sales for CY15 (45,410 units sold under the scheme) reveals potential sales growth of 24%YoY. In the backdrop of vibrant demand growth, recent pass through of 3% cost escalations in selling prices across product ranges in Aug'16, we present a detailed break-up of our expectations of 2HCY16F earnings are to look like. Noted that we expect JpY to experience some weakening, with the PkR retaining its strength till end CY16, any upswing in sheet metal prices also present downsides to our anti-consensus, bullish view on earnings for PSMC.
 
Cultus replacement adds upsides: The current offering of the Cultus, it's the third highest selling car by units for the OEM, making up an average 16.4% of its product sales and revenue mix. While sales for the 16yr old offering remains upbeat (15,188 units sold in CY15 expected to hit ~10%YoY growth for CY16E), replacing this staple in PSMC's sales mix offers increased sales from the new model effect, as consumers are attracted to quality/features on offer in the Celerio. Another possible source of demand may emanate from import car market, where the small/economy segment recorded unit sales growth of 70.2%YoY for 2MFY17. Pricing remains key, where a sensitivity analysis shows an impact between PkR1.75/sh to PkR9.06/sh for 9,500 in unit sales for the year.            .
 
Risks: Relevant risks to the sector and other listed players have been mentioned in the table below. PSMC remains acutely exposed to price competition from price competitive imports, especially if: 1) policy governing used car imports is amended to increase their age limit (beyond five years allowed for now) or, 2) inking of FTA's with China (22nd largest auto exporter), Thailand (15th largest), Turkey (16th largest) where concessionary customs duties may hinder locally manufactured auto car sales. Six months past the release of the AIDP-II with incentives to encourage new entrants, the failure of international OEMs to express interest or move past preliminary feasibilities signals the lackluster reception in the GoP's aim of attracting entrants. 
 
Investment Perspective: Considering the tepid move of the JpY vs. US$ (slightly higher by 0.5%FYTD) and PkR (falling 1.0%FYTD), US$ vs. PkR (-0.3% FYTD), FOREX variations may be favorable over the course of CY16E. On the other hand, CRC Sheet Steel Prices (up 15.9%FYTD) present an element of increased cost for the OEM. While we believe in addition to the 3% increase in sales price for all models in Aug'16, an additional 2% increase would be required in the medium term to guard against margin deletion. Awaiting the materialization of the same, and highlighting the launch of new models as a catalyst, we push for a bullish stance on the stock, which trades at a CY16E/17F PE of 10.2/10.0x. Our FCFF based rolled forward TP of PkR669/sh. amounts to an Accumulate stance and 18% upside to last close.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on October 12, 2016, 04:45:01 PM

Toyota and Suzuki said Wednesday they are holding talks about a possible partnership to handle “unprecedented” changes in the global auto industry, as Japan's vehicle sector sees a wave of consolidation.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1289697/toyota-suzuki-eye-partnership-as-industry-consolidates
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 14, 2016, 05:27:53 PM
Topline Report (Oct 14, 2016)
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC): Downgraded to ‘Hold’ post price rally

? We downgrade our investment stance from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’ on PSMC due to recent price rally in the scrip, up 43% since Jul 2016. Furthermore, we have revised up our EPS estimates to Rs33.7 for 2016 and Rs53.2 for 2017, up 26% and 12%, respectively.
? Adverse changes in JPY/USD parity, appreciating ~15% CYTD, and rising trend in input costs (steel prices up 8.5% since Dec 2015) have shrunk the company’s gross margins to 10.2% in 1H2016 as compared to ~13% in 1H2015. In light of above and persisting volatility in currency markets due to uncertainties regarding any rate hike by U.S. Fed in Dec 2016, we expect gross margins to clock in at 9.2% for 2016 and 10.2% for 2017.
? Conclusion of ‘Apna Rozgar Scheme’ will drag down revenues in absolute terms in 2016. However, excluding Taxi units (Bolan and Ravi) taken at ~4,200/month, we expect the company to post 11% growth in volumes in 2016. This is due to 1) improving macroeconomics conditions in the country, 2) impressive growth in auto financing as a result of historic low policy rate, and 3) improving demand dynamics for the company’s products. To point out, ‘Wagon R’ has been the top performer, posting strong volumetric growth of 69% YoY to 9,029 units, followed by ‘Swift’ which has sold 3,215 units, up 15% YoY, during 9M2016. Overall, we expect PSMC’s sales volume to reach 110K, down 18%YoY in 2016. For 2017, we expect the company to sell ~122k units, up ~10% YoY.
? Our channel checks suggest that PSMC will introduce a new Suzuki model (Celerio 1,000cc) in 2H2017, which is likely to replace the existing ‘Cultus’ brand. We expect that Celerio will contribute around 15-18% to PSMC’s total volumetric sales from 2018 onwards.
? Further, PSMC plans to replace its existing ‘Mehran’ brand with ‘Alto 660cc’, as per our channel checks. This is expected to hit the market by 2018 (not incorporated in our estimates) and can unlock potential upside to our investment thesis, we believe.
? As per recent figures reported by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), the company’s total sales volume declined by 15% to 82,504 units in 9M2016. However, excluding units under taxi scheme sales posted a growth of ~17% YoY during the same period.
? Moreover, PSMC’s US$350mn investment plan in ‘spare parts manufacturing’ plant has been put on hold. As per the management, the expansion plan was contingent upon favorable auto policy. However, the new policy offers limited incentives to existing OEM’s.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Sharjeel on October 22, 2016, 04:46:00 PM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1291468/pak-suzuki-to-replace-mehran-with-660cc-alto

Mehran to be discontinued.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on October 23, 2016, 06:46:22 AM
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – the largest car maker in Pakistan – will not launch any new model in the next two years, a spokesman of the company said, adding that the investment, if any, was contingent on the government offering the same incentives it was offering to new entrants in the Automotive Development Policy 2016-21.

“We have neither given a launch date nor have any plan for our vendors to localise parts for models,” a Pak-Suzuki spokesperson told The Express Tribune.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/1206873/pak-suzuki-says-no-launch-new-model-2-years/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: dr.muhammad zia on October 23, 2016, 10:39:21 PM
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – the largest car maker in Pakistan – will not launch any new model in the next two years, a spokesman of the company said, adding that the investment, if any, was contingent on the government offering the same incentives it was offering to new entrants in the Automotive Development Policy 2016-21.

“We have neither given a launch date nor have any plan for our vendors to localise parts for models,” a Pak-Suzuki spokesperson told The Express Tribune.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/1206873/pak-suzuki-says-no-launch-new-model-2-years/

lao 2 lower locks
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on October 23, 2016, 11:09:35 PM
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – the largest car maker in Pakistan – will not launch any new model in the next two years, a spokesman of the company said, adding that the investment, if any, was contingent on the government offering the same incentives it was offering to new entrants in the Automotive Development Policy 2016-21.

“We have neither given a launch date nor have any plan for our vendors to localise parts for models,” a Pak-Suzuki spokesperson told The Express Tribune.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/1206873/pak-suzuki-says-no-launch-new-model-2-years/

lao 2 lower locks

i think new models will be introduced  maybe in march quarter
Total capex in the past 6 months and coming 12 will be around 3.5 billion rupees
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on October 25, 2016, 02:39:56 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/25aj3t4.jpg)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on October 25, 2016, 05:25:40 PM
Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) – the largest car maker in Pakistan – will not launch any new model in the next two years, a spokesman of the company said, adding that the investment, if any, was contingent on the government offering the same incentives it was offering to new entrants in the Automotive Development Policy 2016-21.

“We have neither given a launch date nor have any plan for our vendors to localise parts for models,” a Pak-Suzuki spokesperson told The Express Tribune.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/1206873/pak-suzuki-says-no-launch-new-model-2-years/

lao 2 lower locks

i think new models will be introduced  maybe in march quarter
Total capex in the past 6 months and coming 12 will be around 3.5 billion rupees
Suzuki Alto 660cc by 2018 ; Celerio 1,000cc by March 2017 & introduce imported Suzuki Grand Vitara SUV and 1,300cc Sedan Ciaz in 2017.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 25, 2016, 06:40:41 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced its 9M2016 results today, with Profit after Tax (PAT) plunging by 56% YoY to Rs1,874mn (EPS: Rs22.77). Volumetric decline of 15% YoY during 9M2016 in absence of Punjab Government Cab Scheme led to a 7% YoY dip in Net Revenues during the period, which shrank to Rs56,760mn. However, we believe a sharp increase of 10.3% YoY in JPY vis-à-vis the greenback was the leading factor for dismal earnings during the period, with gross margins falling by ~462bps YoY to settle at 9.2%.
In 3Q2016, earnings fell by 10% QoQ to Rs438mn (EPS: Rs5.32), with net sales ending down by 6% QoQ, while gross margins declined to 7%, likely due to JPY appreciation (up 5% QoQ). We believe the impact of price increase announced during the quarter is likely to reflect from next quarter onwards

JS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on October 26, 2016, 09:40:53 AM
It is still overpriced. Should consolidate around 490~500.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on October 30, 2016, 12:20:30 PM

PSMC: 3QCY16 EPS at Rs5.3

Event                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

·         Pak Suzuki (PSMC) reported profit of Rs0.44bn (EPS: 5.3) in 3QCY16 versus profit of Rs1.8bn (EPS: Rs22.11) in the same period last year, down 76 % YoY.
 

Impact 

·         Net sales declined by 16% YoY in 3QCY16, instigated by 25% YoY decline in volumes, mainly due to the concluding Apna Rozgar Scheme.

·         Gross margins were recorded at 7%, compared to 16% in 3QCY15 owing to volatile Yen and steel price movements in the last quarter as well as volumetric decline of 25% YoY in 3QCY16.

 

Outlook

·         Whereas we remain positive on the volumetric growth, we highlight volatile currency and steel price movements will continue to keep the margins under pressure. We thus maintain our “underperform” stance on the sector.
 FS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: invincible on November 17, 2016, 02:48:08 PM
PSMC stance?

Considering Yen depreciation.?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 28, 2016, 10:29:43 PM

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/pakwheels-exclusive-spy-shots-suzuki-vitara-reaches-port-qasim/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 29, 2016, 12:08:57 AM

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/pakwheels-exclusive-spy-shots-suzuki-vitara-reaches-port-qasim/

too much to hope for the 1.4 turbo with awd & auto transmission and a sub 2.5 million price tag?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 29, 2016, 12:12:28 AM

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/pakwheels-exclusive-spy-shots-suzuki-vitara-reaches-port-qasim/

too much to hope for the 1.4 turbo with awd & auto transmission and a sub 2.5 million price tag?

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/suzuki/vitara
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 29, 2016, 01:11:07 AM

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/pakwheels-exclusive-spy-shots-suzuki-vitara-reaches-port-qasim/

too much to hope for the 1.4 turbo with awd & auto transmission and a sub 2.5 million price tag?

It will be a CBU so it kills everything else!
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 29, 2016, 11:21:27 AM

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/pakwheels-exclusive-spy-shots-suzuki-vitara-reaches-port-qasim/

too much to hope for the 1.4 turbo with awd & auto transmission and a sub 2.5 million price tag?

It will be a CBU so it kills everything else!

why do you say that ?
CBUs > local assembled in terms of qualities and features ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 29, 2016, 11:54:59 AM

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/pakwheels-exclusive-spy-shots-suzuki-vitara-reaches-port-qasim/

too much to hope for the 1.4 turbo with awd & auto transmission and a sub 2.5 million price tag?

It will be a CBU so it kills everything else!

why do you say that ?
CBUs > local assembled in terms of qualities and features ...

Price tag sbm price tag,150% duty

while in case of ckd's 30% & 45% on imported n localized parts respectively
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on December 08, 2016, 06:43:25 PM
Suzuki Ciaz Spotted at Port Qasim

https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/suzuki-ciaz-spotted-in-pakistan/?utm_source=urdu-story&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=english-urdu-blog
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on December 09, 2016, 11:57:58 AM
anyone has any working on how much these imported vehicles, ie  vitara & ciaz will cost ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on December 09, 2016, 12:17:14 PM
About time Pakistanis drove quality cars and not that expensive. PSMC better understand this sooner than later and it seems it has somewhat.
Blood sucking parasite.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on December 13, 2016, 10:22:54 AM
Took an entry today
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on December 15, 2016, 11:46:42 AM
Heavy locked! Alhamdullilah!  :clap1: :clap1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on December 15, 2016, 03:38:24 PM
TP 600.
Suzuki Ready to Invest $460m in 2nd Pakistan Plant. Approval may come sooner than later now.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on December 15, 2016, 04:20:10 PM
Suzuki Announces Plan To Setup Its Second Manufacturing Plant in Pakistan

https://propakistani.pk/2016/12/15/suzuki-announces-plan-setup-second-manufacturing-plant-pakistan/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalghani86 on December 15, 2016, 04:42:39 PM
Suzuki Announces Plan To Setup Its Second Manufacturing Plant in Pakistan

https://propakistani.pk/2016/12/15/suzuki-announces-plan-setup-second-manufacturing-plant-pakistan/

Means their Board has approved this expansion ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on December 16, 2016, 11:35:38 AM
TP 600.
Suzuki Ready to Invest $460m in 2nd Pakistan Plant. Approval may come sooner than later now.
:good
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on December 16, 2016, 11:38:34 AM
TP 600.
Suzuki Ready to Invest $460m in 2nd Pakistan Plant. Approval may come sooner than later now.
:good
Government may amend auto policy
http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0:/113789:auto-policy-may-be-amended/?date=2016-12-16


Pak Suzuki MD discussing future investment with Dar   
http://www.brecorder.com/business-and-economy/189:pakistan/113839:pak-suzuki-md-discusses-future-investment-with-dar/?date=2016-12-16
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Thelma on December 16, 2016, 03:58:08 PM
Should sale at 600 or wait
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: zohaib.merchant on December 19, 2016, 12:05:42 PM
new model of Suzuki is due to launch on 21st December, now it can be either celario, ciaz or vitara, or all of them. lets see. we have achieved 600 and might even see 650 to 700 range if all 3 models launch.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on December 19, 2016, 12:16:00 PM
new model of Suzuki is due to launch on 21st December, now it can be either celario, ciaz or vitara, or all of them. lets see. we have achieved 600 and might even see 650 to 700 range if all 3 models launch.

Celario no way would take at least 3-4 months,for vitara n ciaz yes this month 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: zohaib.merchant on December 19, 2016, 12:40:44 PM
new model of Suzuki is due to launch on 21st December, now it can be either celario, ciaz or vitara, or all of them. lets see. we have achieved 600 and might even see 650 to 700 range if all 3 models launch.

Celario no way would take at least 3-4 months,for vitara n ciaz yes this month

agreed that celario is the least of the 3 possible options but ya it is in the pipeline, we never know what will actually happen till 21st dec
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on December 19, 2016, 12:51:42 PM
TWO DAYS LEFT
Suzuki Vitara Priced at Rs.3.55MN rumors

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2em0r9y.jpg)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on December 19, 2016, 02:10:52 PM
TWO DAYS LEFT
Suzuki Vitara Priced at Rs.3.55MN rumors

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2em0r9y.jpg)

they should price it at  3 million at most ... otherwise one can just opt for a S grade Vezel
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: sarmad26 on December 20, 2016, 09:38:16 AM
Sold and out...brave hearts can wait till tomorrow
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on December 21, 2016, 09:30:08 PM
Vitara has been launched in 2 variants

GL+ which is priced at PKR 3.490 Million

GLX priced at PKR 3.799 Million
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on December 22, 2016, 01:27:59 PM
Vitara has been launched in 2 variants

GL+ which is priced at PKR 3.490 Million

GLX priced at PKR 3.799 Million


very well equipped vehicle
would sell like hotcakes if it had a toyota badge 

http://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/Vitara/main-site.html
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on December 25, 2016, 04:46:57 PM
Challenges ahead for PSMC:
Nissan Datsun Redi Go Price in Pakistan Upcoming Models Features
http://driver.pk/cars/nissan-cars/2017-nissan-datsun-redi-go/
https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/datsun-redi-go-suzuki-alto-800-fighter-may-come-pakistan/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: bilalghani86 on January 04, 2017, 03:57:47 PM
When PAMA results expected ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on January 17, 2017, 05:51:10 PM
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: What needs to change at PSMC

 
Following the slowdown in sales (down 18%YoY in CY16), where ex-Rozgar growth of 20% was primarily driven by Wagon R sales (71%YoY increase to 13,309 units), we highlight the trends PSMC need to accommodate going forward. These include: 1) hastening the pace of model launches, as the majority of sales still come from 1980's variants (Ravi, Bolan and Mehran), 2) reaching premium price point on the back of these launches, where the tradeoff between quality and features raises product margins, and 3) leveraging its network of 86+ dealers across the country to improve on the after sales services proposition. While these potential changes could raise earnings in the medium term, we highlight the risk to earnings and margins from rising steel prices (CRC sheet steel prices are up 61.3%FYTD). We expect CY16E earnings at PkR2,383.9mn (EPS:PkR28.97) with 4QCY16E anticipated profits at PkR510mn (EPS:PkR6.20) considering tepid post-rozgar sales (109,588 units sold in CY16 down 18%YoY). Braving a strong run (up 65% FYTD), the stock has stabilized near our TP of PkR646/sh trading at a forward P/E multiple of 18.1x.
 
4QCY16 Preview: Considering tepid post-rozgar sales (109,588 units sold in CY16 down 18%YoY), where, we project CY16E earnings of PkR2,383.9mn (EPS:PkR28.97). For the final quarter of the year, we project NPAT of PkR510mn (EPS:PkR6.2), despite comfortable sequential growth in the topline, brought on by price increases, and higher unit sales during the quarter. Overall, margins for CY16E are depressed from higher input prices (81.7% increase in CRC sheet steel prices), higher below the line expenses as a consequence of product launches (OM of 4% vs. 10% in CY15) indicative of high operating leverage.
 
Shifting trends present an opportunity: While the prevalence of the new model effect remains strong, the laggard in this regard remains PSMC. Despite the ex-Rozgar growth of 20% was primarily driven by Wagon R sales (71%YoY increase to 13,309 units), Mehran/Ravi/Bolan make up 33/18/19% of overall unit sales, being introduced in the 1980's. Increasing urbanization, higher motorization and discerning passenger car market where prevalence of imported vehicles is gaining steam (+80%YoY growth in FY16) points to a quality vs. price trade off. The recent launch of the Vitara, all-wheel drive vehicles in the CBU segments is encouraging as the offering has drastic upgradation from the previously launched CBU in 2005. The adoption of crossover SUVs, and passenger economy segment vehicles by local consumers, is a positive trend for PSMC to leverage.
 
Steel prices-a major risk: Higher steel prices present a challenge to improving profitability, as witnessed by the 61.4%FYTD rise in CRC Sheet Steel prices, approaching levels last seen in 2QCY13. With an increasing risk of reversion to such a scenario, we have run a sensitivity analysis of a 10% increase in steel prices, and its impact on profitability and margins.
 
Outlook: Despite the presence of external swings remaining detrimental to long term profit sustainability, PSMC benefits from, 1) strong footprint across the country (86 dealers) with brand power, 2) planned investments to introduce new models (1000 CC Celerio planned for 1QCY17) accompanied by investment in a spare parts manufacturing facility, and 3) cost effective nature of offerings taping into multi segment demand base. Braving a strong run (up 65% FYTD), the stock has stabilized near our TP of PkR646/sh, as we await clarity on how changes are executed at the OEM.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on January 24, 2017, 02:48:54 PM
 
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited: CY16 EPS expected at PKR27, down 62%YoY
 
We expect the company to report earnings of PKR2.2bn (EPS: PKR27.2) in CY16, depicting a decline of 62%YoY.

Earnings decline can be attributed to i) reduction in volumes as a result of conclusion of Apna Rozgar scheme and ii) 5.1ppsYoY reduction in gross margins due to unfavorable FX movement.

Excluding units in the Rozgar scheme, volumes rose 21%YoY in CY16.

For 4QCY16, earnings are expected to clock in at PKR369mn (EPS: PKR4.5), down 16%QoQ.

Future direction of margins is contingent on U.S' economic policies and dollar's strength in the FX market

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on January 25, 2017, 11:48:15 AM
PSMC to acquire 40% shares in Tecno Auto Glass. A positive development for the company
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/093059.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: momo on February 01, 2017, 01:20:42 AM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1311877/suzuki-to-stop-taking-orders-for-cultus-from-feb-1
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 01, 2017, 09:38:00 AM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1311877/suzuki-to-stop-taking-orders-for-cultus-from-feb-1
Awesome. this means that Cultus is gonna get replaced by Celerio. Good news.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on February 01, 2017, 10:40:05 AM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1311877/suzuki-to-stop-taking-orders-for-cultus-from-feb-1
Awesome. this means that Cultus is gonna get replaced by Celerio. Good news.

Celerio with the brand tag of Cultus
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2ezi5x2.jpg)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 01, 2017, 12:45:20 PM
http://www.dawn.com/news/1311877/suzuki-to-stop-taking-orders-for-cultus-from-feb-1
Awesome. this means that Cultus is gonna get replaced by Celerio. Good news.


 :biggthumpup:
hopefully celerio/new cultus will be a better car ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Christena421 on February 03, 2017, 12:51:38 PM
This news is hundred percent i think i read information from here:
http://www.gari.pk/news/punjab-government-3000-pink-scooties-for-females-79/ (http://www.gari.pk/news/punjab-government-3000-pink-scooties-for-females-79/)
(http://i66.tinypic.com/15xu6tt.jpg)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Christena421 on February 03, 2017, 12:53:46 PM
Suzuki Announces Plan To Setup Its Second Manufacturing Plant in Pakistan

https://propakistani.pk/2016/12/15/suzuki-announces-plan-setup-second-manufacturing-plant-pakistan/
i also read this from here:
http://www.gari.pk/news/ (http://www.gari.pk/news/) , is it correct??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 03, 2017, 01:51:06 PM
Suzuki Announces Plan To Setup Its Second Manufacturing Plant in Pakistan

https://propakistani.pk/2016/12/15/suzuki-announces-plan-setup-second-manufacturing-plant-pakistan/
i also read this from here:
http://www.gari.pk/news/ (http://www.gari.pk/news/) , is it correct??

old news
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on February 04, 2017, 12:24:36 AM
PSMC, INDU & HCAR would get tough competition from Korean, French & Chinese brands that would come on line from local plants in next 1.5~2.0 years time.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on February 04, 2017, 03:08:45 AM
PSMC, INDU & HCAR would get tough competition from Korean, French & Chinese brands that would come on line from local plants in next 1.5~2.0 years time.

Yes their presence will create healthy competition but Honda,toyota,are world renowned brands and Suzuki is well established in asia so they will be tough to beat.While Chinese themselves prefer Japanese cars

Most probable thing would be that these 3 will offer better options along with Hyundai.All other car makers are just a far cry
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alicima on February 04, 2017, 03:19:33 AM
PSMC, INDU & HCAR would get tough competition from Korean, French & Chinese brands that would come on line from local plants in next 1.5~2.0 years time.
competition hota kya hai inko lag pata jae ga  :thumbsup_anim: :clap1: :shoaby:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Wasi_IT on February 04, 2017, 09:08:31 AM
PSMC, INDU & HCAR would get tough competition from Korean, French & Chinese brands that would come on line from local plants in next 1.5~2.0 years time.
competition hota kya hai inko lag pata jae ga  :thumbsup_anim: :clap1: :shoaby:
It's great to break there monopoly in Pakistan.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Wasi_IT on February 04, 2017, 09:26:52 AM
PSMC, INDU & HCAR would get tough competition from Korean, French & Chinese brands that would come on line from local plants in next 1.5~2.0 years time.
competition hota kya hai inko lag pata jae ga  :thumbsup_anim: :clap1: :shoaby:
It's great to break there monopoly in Pakistan.
Now there will be a PAKISTANI NANO instead of old rusted MEHRAN, CULTUSSSSS...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 08, 2017, 11:34:47 AM
Suzuki Ciaz. Should honda and toyota be worried? Seems like yes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1313288/suzuki-ciaz-should-honda-and-toyota-be-worried
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on February 08, 2017, 10:38:00 PM
Suzuki Ciaz. Should honda and toyota be worried? Seems like yes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1313288/suzuki-ciaz-should-honda-and-toyota-be-worried

20:39  Prices have been announced!!

Suzuki Ciaz M/T price : PKR 1,699,000

Suzuki Ciaz A/T price: PKR 1,839,000


WOW

Suzuki is definitely in

But the thing I m unable to absorb is that psmc issued a circular couple of days back that ciaz is CBU from Thailand
means very high duty and they are selling here in that bracket 1.6m to 1.8m which is only possible in case of localization
even in india ciaz is available from 1.4m plus where duty is 10% on ckd's while here in pak duty is 30% on ckd.

Only logical answer could be that psmc has imported few dozens (reports are of 200)of ciaz to sell below cost in order to compel government to amend auto policy and showing govt the price at which they can assemble and sell the vehicle if they have been given the same incentives.


Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: momo on February 08, 2017, 11:31:37 PM
PSMC, INDU & HCAR would get tough competition from Korean, French & Chinese brands that would come on line from local plants in next 1.5~2.0 years time.

Yes their presence will create healthy competition but Honda,toyota,are world renowned brands and Suzuki is well established in asia so they will be tough to beat.While Chinese themselves prefer Japanese cars

Most probable thing would be that these 3 will offer better options along with Hyundai.All other car makers are just a far cry

They'll get a real spanking from Renault/Nissan and Hyundai. FAW will eat into Suzuki's lower end range with cheaper cars.

They will have to get better if they want to maintain their dominance.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 09, 2017, 09:48:23 AM
Suzuki Ciaz around 17lakh. A very competitive price.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 09, 2017, 11:34:55 AM
Suzuki Ciaz. Should honda and toyota be worried? Seems like yes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1313288/suzuki-ciaz-should-honda-and-toyota-be-worried

20:39  Prices have been announced!!

Suzuki Ciaz M/T price : PKR 1,699,000

Suzuki Ciaz A/T price: PKR 1,839,000


WOW

Suzuki is definitely in

But the thing I m unable to absorb is that psmc issued a circular couple of days back that ciaz is CBU from Thailand
means very high duty and they are selling here in that bracket 1.6m to 1.8m which is only possible in case of localization
even in india ciaz is available from 1.4m plus where duty is 10% on ckd's while here in pak duty is 30% on ckd.

Only logical answer could be that psmc has imported few dozens (reports are of 200)of ciaz to sell below cost in order to compel government to amend auto policy and showing govt the price at which they can assemble and sell the vehicle if they have been given the same incentives.

as per some ppl on pakwheels they have sold all the vitara inventory as well
 :skeptic:
i have only seen one vitara ever btw ...
on the road ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 09, 2017, 11:47:39 AM
Suzuki Ciaz. Should honda and toyota be worried? Seems like yes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1313288/suzuki-ciaz-should-honda-and-toyota-be-worried

20:39  Prices have been announced!!

Suzuki Ciaz M/T price : PKR 1,699,000

Suzuki Ciaz A/T price: PKR 1,839,000


WOW

Suzuki is definitely in

But the thing I m unable to absorb is that psmc issued a circular couple of days back that ciaz is CBU from Thailand
means very high duty and they are selling here in that bracket 1.6m to 1.8m which is only possible in case of localization
even in india ciaz is available from 1.4m plus where duty is 10% on ckd's while here in pak duty is 30% on ckd.

Only logical answer could be that psmc has imported few dozens (reports are of 200)of ciaz to sell below cost in order to compel government to amend auto policy and showing govt the price at which they can assemble and sell the vehicle if they have been given the same incentives.

as per some ppl on pakwheels they have sold all the vitara inventory as well
 :skeptic:
i have only seen one vitara ever btw ...
on the road ..
I have also seen one vitara. If you are in lahore then we might have seen the same vitara :p But never the less the rates of the Ciaz are quite attractive. It can give tough competition to xli and city.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 09, 2017, 02:24:45 PM
nope in karachi .. white vitara thee

Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 09, 2017, 02:28:55 PM
So at least 2 vitaras are sold :p
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 13, 2017, 08:51:12 AM
Pama stats Jan 17 vs Dec 16 for Suzuki

Switch 412 from 324  (27.2% increase)
Cultus 1366 from 1298 (5.2% increase)
WagonR 1602 from 1382 (15.9% increase)
Mehran 3735 from 2773 (34.7% increase)
Bolan 2030 from 1690 (20.1% increase)

Could not find any information about Vitara from Pama stats. But overall month to month, there is health increase in sales for Suzuki.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 13, 2017, 10:06:24 AM
Pama stats Jan 17 vs Dec 16 for Suzuki

Switch 412 from 324  (27.2% increase)
Cultus 1366 from 1298 (5.2% increase)
WagonR 1602 from 1382 (15.9% increase)
Mehran 3735 from 2773 (34.7% increase)
Bolan 2030 from 1690 (20.1% increase)

Could not find any information about Vitara from Pama stats. But overall month to month, there is health increase in sales for Suzuki.

vitara is imported
pama numbers only include locally assembled vehicles
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 13, 2017, 10:29:25 AM
Pama stats Jan 17 vs Dec 16 for Suzuki

Switch 412 from 324  (27.2% increase)
Cultus 1366 from 1298 (5.2% increase)
WagonR 1602 from 1382 (15.9% increase)
Mehran 3735 from 2773 (34.7% increase)
Bolan 2030 from 1690 (20.1% increase)

Could not find any information about Vitara from Pama stats. But overall month to month, there is health increase in sales for Suzuki.

vitara is imported
pama numbers only include locally assembled vehicles

From where to get numbers on sale of imported cars??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on February 13, 2017, 11:10:17 AM
Pama stats Jan 17 vs Dec 16 for Suzuki

Switch 412 from 324  (27.2% increase)
Cultus 1366 from 1298 (5.2% increase)
WagonR 1602 from 1382 (15.9% increase)
Mehran 3735 from 2773 (34.7% increase)
Bolan 2030 from 1690 (20.1% increase)

Could not find any information about Vitara from Pama stats. But overall month to month, there is health increase in sales for Suzuki.

vitara is imported
pama numbers only include locally assembled vehicles

From where to get numbers on sale of imported cars??

i dont know
maybe try the company ?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ranjha on February 17, 2017, 09:50:50 AM
Any bad news for PSMC? This is going down on faster then chitti corolla.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ivianoo on February 18, 2017, 03:19:07 PM
Any bad news for PSMC? This is going down on faster then chitti corolla.
JS Global and other brokerage houses giving 550-590 range for 2017 and one must be cautious about this share. Moreover, markets.ft.com also giving its range between 490-570. Decide accordingly. Consult this graph.
4 Hr Graph: Trend is extremely Bearish
(http://i1262.photobucket.com/albums/ii606/ialimusa/4-Hr_zpsaglapqqu.png) (http://s1262.photobucket.com/user/ialimusa/media/4-Hr_zpsaglapqqu.png.html)
Daily Graph:
in daily graph, trend is going to be bearish as soon as yellow crosses over blue line in upward direction and will continue till the time blue takes shape and crosses over yellow in upward direction
(http://i1262.photobucket.com/albums/ii606/ialimusa/Daily_zpsl1ovnhai.png) (http://s1262.photobucket.com/user/ialimusa/media/Daily_zpsl1ovnhai.png.html)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 05, 2017, 03:22:47 PM
AKD Daily
 
PSMC: Punjab Budget brings "good things"

 
Heading into an election year, the Punjab Government has chosen to stick to what is old and allocate funds to concessionary automotive schemes. News reports leading up to the allocation have been on point, with publicly available sources pointing to an Orange Cab scheme (PkR35 allocated for 50,000 units) under a continuation of the Apna Rozgar Scheme. Drawing conclusions and benchmarking shorter delivery lead times to the CY14-16 Green Cab Rozgar Scheme, we believe a 1-2% discount over list price is likely. With approximately 20,000 units being delivered, our model highlights that NPAT for CY17E can be raised by PkR576mn (PkR7.0/sh) higher by 16% from our base case sales estimate (122K unit sales forecast and Weighted Average sales price growth of 4.1%YoY). We await clarification from PSMC management, not raising our estimates at this time. Our FCFF based TP of PkR800/sh implies a Neutral stance to last close, where upsides from payout raising measures in the Federal Budget may add value.
 
Shortened timeline likely: In continuation of previous commentary on the matter we upgrade our sensitivity analysis of the earnings impact of such a scheme, forecasting a lagged delivery cycle for the current scheme.  Benchmarking delivery lead times to the CY14-16 Green Cab Rozgar Scheme, we believe a shorter timeframe between signing of agreement and first deliveries is likely (within a quarter vs. 5 months previously).
 
Shifting sensitivities: Depending on the variants being sold under the scheme, we believe a 0.75-1.5% discount over list price for the vehicles delivered is likely, with approximately 20,000 units being delivered by year end. Based on our model, we posit NPAT for CY17E can be raised by PkR576mn (PkR7.0/sh) higher by 16% from our base case sales estimate (122K unit sales forecast and Weighted Average sales price growth of 4.1%YoY). However, we await clarification from PSMC management, and so are not raising our estimates at this time.
 
Investment Perspective: PSMC has had a bullish spell (1.17x FYTD and 35.4%CYTD) the stock trades at CY17/18F P/E of 18.4/14.4x (on our base case EPS estimates of PkR44.98/57.3/sh) where the expectation of a Rozgar scheme led sales bump and the launch of the new Cultus have played out as catalysts for multiple inflation. Our FCFF based TP of PkR800/sh implies a Neutral stance to last close. Price performance may be fueled further from terms in the Federal Finance Bill, seeking higher payout provisions (must be at least 40% of earnings) for listed companies having undistributed reserves in excess of 100% of paid up capital. As PSMC meets those criteria, but with a five year average payout ratio of 20%, the OEM may be liable to raise payouts (CY17/18F D/Y currently expected at 1.1/1.3%), or pay an additional 10% tax levy on profits. We await the final version of the approved Finance Bill FY18 and associated judgments from any legal hurdles that such a measure is sure to face to raise payout estimates. 
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 07, 2017, 11:48:33 PM
PSMC: Orange cab scheme priced in

Wednesday, 07 June 2017

By: Foundation Securities (Pvt.) Limited
The Punjab government in its FY18 budget proposals allocated Rs35bn to the highly anticipated Orange cab scheme, involving distribution of 50,000 cars. Whereas no formal agreement has been announced, PSMC has previously participated in govt enforced schemes and we see increased possibility this time as well with the company as the only local player operating in the economy segment.
We believe operating on Saturdays could erase concerns of capacity constraints and would result in additional production of ~26K units per annum. We have assumed the bulk of the order (~70%) to be realized next year and will adjust our volumetric assumptions as further details are revealed.
We foresee continual sales growth as Pakistan’s economy continues its transition to higher growth trajectory (exp. GDPg of 6% vs ~4.6% of last 3 yrs). This is backed by positive consumer sentiments; (1) growing per capita income, (2) low interest rates and (3) improving security environment. We believe major growth will come from WagonR which has received stupendous response (up 75% YoY in 4MCY17). Novelty of new model should drive sales of Cultus, however we do recognize that its current price has reduced discount with imported cars.
We believe rampant demand will allow the company to maintain its margins moving forward. Reminiscent to this is the routine price increases in the last few months which has allowed margins to improve by 5ppts since 3QCY16. We however anticipate margins to contract in the coming quarters owing to lower localization level of the new Cultus as well as the depreciation charges associated with it. We have conservatively assumed long term margins to slightly contract as new competition comes in.
We have incorporated impact of orange cab scheme which increases our CY17/18 EPS by 9%/20%.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on June 12, 2017, 08:06:37 PM
PSMC: Earnings to rise significantly on orders from Cab Scheme

Monday, 12 June 2017

By: Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt.) Limited
We have revised upwards our target price of Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) to PKR 865.3 per share (previously PKR 674/share) for December 2017. After incorporating the company’s 1QCY17 result and updating our assumptions post the news of introduction of another cab scheme by the Punjab government, we have increased the total sales assumptions and also improved the gross margin outlook for the company in the coming two year period. Furthermore, we expect strong organic growth to continue specially in PSMC’s 1000cc variants with demand for Cultus expected to remain high on the back of launch of new model. We have improved our gross margin assumption over the next two year period partly due to expectations of increased capacity utilization levels leading to economies of scale and partly due to recent correction in steel prices internationally.
The Government of Punjab recently announced an Orange Cab Scheme in its FY18 Budget. As earlier with the Apna Rozgar scheme in CY15, the scheme includes provision of 50k vehicles to be provided at subsidized rates to the unemployed youth of the province. Considering PSMC is the sole assembler of the lower end cars currently and the sole receiver of the Apna Rozgar scheme contract in CY15, the company is likely to again receive the order from the Punjab government.
Post incorporating the 50k vehicles expected to be provided in equal half in CY17 and CY18, our total sales assumptions for PSMC rises to 133k vehicles in CY17 and 138k in CY18. Consequently, the cab scheme boosts our earnings estimates for CY17 and CY18 to PKR 71 and PKR 75 respectively.
We have raised our target price of PSMC to PKR 865.3/share for December 2017 from our previous target price of PKR 674.3 per share. Our target price results in a downside of around 1% to its previous closing price. Therefore, we are maintaining our neutral stance on the scrip.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on July 24, 2017, 12:08:42 PM
PSMC: 1H2017 EPS likely to clock in 70% YoY higher
 
July 24, 2017 (JS Research)
 
The BoD of PSMC is scheduled to announce 1H2017 results on July 25, 2017, where we expect the company to post EPS of Rs29.72, up 70% YoY.
Earnings for 2Q2017 are likely to clock in 134% YoY higher at Rs1.1bn (EPS: Rs13.84).
Sequentially, earnings are expected to decline by 13% QoQ on account of (1) 9% QoQ dip in volumes, (2) 2% QoQ adverse movement in JPY/ US$, and (3) 3% Super Tax announced in Federal Budget FY18.
We flag (1) new entrants and (2) Pak Rupee depreciation as significant risks to future earnings potential.
We recommend 'Buy' with a Target Price of Rs793. The stock is currently trading at 2017E P/E of 10.3x.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 25, 2017, 06:32:22 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited-PSMC: 2Q 2017 EPS clocked in at PKR8.3 per share - Below expectations

Tuesday, 25 July 2017

By: Insight Securities (Private) Limited
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited-PSMC has announced its 2Q 2017 results, where the company posted earnings of PKR685m (EPS: PKR8.3). The result is below our expectations.
During 2Q, net sales of the company fell by 4%QoQ, due to 9% decline in sales. However, the major dent to earnings came from 3.8pps fall in gross margins to 8.4%. Though, JPY/PKR appreciated 2.3% QoQ, we await management clarity for the reason behind sharp fall in margins.
Cumulatively in 1H 2017, net sales increased 20% to PKR47b, led by 7% increase in volumes. Gross margins remained flat, while lower effective tax rate (31% vs. 42%) also strengthened the bottom-line.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 25, 2017, 07:27:05 PM
(https://scontent-mxp1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/20374410_1625825877461510_1515461673715943154_n.jpg?oh=3f9dffa2e2b0889c524b978b3c2f15ae&oe=5A0DF471)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: alidxb on July 26, 2017, 06:12:29 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Co.: PKR646.74 as of 25 Jul. 2017, Rating: Sell, TP: PKR563.00/share, MCap: USD506mn, PSMC PA/PKSU.KA (Hermes)

Volume growth and price/mix gains driving revenue; lower tax rate masked impact of weaker margins

Pak Suzuki Motor Company has reported 2Q17 net income of PKR685mn (EPS: PKR8.33), a strong increase of 41% Y-o-Y but down 48% Q-o-Q. Key drivers of earnings growth were: (i) revenues, up 21% Y-o-Y on volume growth of 8% in automobiles and 12% in motorcycles, (ii) gross margin declined 100bps Y-o-Y to 8.4%, likely driven by a higher proportion of imported components in the new models and a +5% Y-o-Y move in the cold rolled coil steel price, diluting gross profit growth to only 8%, (iii) distribution and administrative expenses growth of 24% and 11% Y-o-Y, respectively, leading to an operating profit decline of 4% and (iv) tax rate normalisation to 31.6% compared to 55.2% in the base, resulting in net profit growth of 41% Y-o-Y.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on July 27, 2017, 07:08:06 PM
PSMC: EPS for 1HCY17 clocks in at PkR24.2 (+39%YoY)
 
Ø  Pak Suzuki Motors Company (PSMC) reported earnings of PkR1.9bn (EPS: PkR24.2) in 1HCY17 against PkR1.4bn in SPLY (EPS: PkR17.44) exhibiting a surge of 39%YoY. On a sequential basis, the earnings have decreased by 48%QoQ basis (2QCY17: PkR0.7bn, 1QCY17:PkR1,307bn).
Ø  In 1HCY17, PSMC’s sales revenue has been recorded at PkR46.8bn (+20%YoY), however it has declined by 4%QoQ basis in 2QCY17.
Ø  The company’s GMs have dipped to 8% in 2QCY17 from 12% in 1QCY17 owing to 1) fall in sales volumes from 32,288 units in 1QCY17 to 29,301 units in 2QCY17 and 2) strengthening of USD/JPY by 2% in 2QCY17.
Ø  Distribution expenses increased by 37%YoY in 1HCY17 and declined by 4%QoQ in 2QCY17.
Ø  Finance cost declined by 51% in 1HCY17 and by 53%QoQ.
Ø  The company’s effective tax rate has remained flat at 31% in 1HCY17 and at 32% in 2QCY17.
Ø  Granular details will be discussed once the detailed accounts are revealed by the company.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nahiyar on August 09, 2017, 01:56:58 PM
Yar ye PSMC ko kia ho gaya hai, bas down hee down na raha hai  huhu, any expert opinion here??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 17, 2017, 01:05:40 PM
almost 35% DOWN from last 30 Days. Ab In Sha Allah wapsi ka safar start honay wala hay.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nahiyar on August 17, 2017, 03:15:51 PM
Chahy Index res ho ya green, ye BC non stop gir raha hai, samj nahi araha k kia karu is k sath, bilkul hee koi support nahi mil rahi is ko to, lagta hai k 400 tak janay k irada hai MC ka
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: ivianoo on August 17, 2017, 03:17:47 PM
Chahy Index res ho ya green, ye BC non stop gir raha hai, samj nahi araha k kia karu is k sath, bilkul hee koi support nahi mil rahi is ko to, lagta hai k 400 tak janay k irada hai MC ka

EFG Harmees predicted its DEC 2017 price of 555
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 17, 2017, 04:02:21 PM
yeh us waqt ki news hay jab PSMC 660 ka tha, ab tou 555 se bhi nichay agaya hay arount 485. So meray khayal se buy karnay ka acha moka ho sakta hay. kyun k jaisay 5000 aur 10000 ki lot main aik sath maal uthaya ja rha tha subha.

baki jo aaj down hoa hay woh tou 50 100 maximum 500 lot waloon ne down kiya hay.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nahiyar on August 17, 2017, 04:30:16 PM
Subah bohot buying huwi hai, sirf 500 per hee mere khial mai 100k shares ki trading huwi or us k baad ye bara b lakin manhoosiat phir sy cha gayi
Pata nahi bottom kaha per hai or wapis 650 tak janay mai kitna khwar karayega hamai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 18, 2017, 11:07:29 AM
is ne tou public ka juice nikal diya RSI 14 per hay

Around 40% Down in Last 45 Days

770 >>>>>>>>>> 470
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 18, 2017, 11:21:20 AM
is ne tou public ka juice nikal diya RSI 14 per hay

Around 40% Down in Last 45 Days

770 >>>>>>>>>> 470
Bhai gaari kharedna asaan hai
gaari afford aur maintain rakhna har kisi k bas ki baat nahin...
Ghnl Hcar Psmc etcc ka yehi paigham hai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 18, 2017, 04:47:43 PM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on August 18, 2017, 09:23:02 PM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 18, 2017, 09:30:37 PM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 18, 2017, 10:08:41 PM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain
Aisa hee kuch main nay bhi GHNL mai soocha tha
pehlay 344 pe buy kara usko 402 pe sell kara phir woo 402 se gira tou soocha 370 par buyback karun phir aaasra kara aur buy plan change kara
phir soocha 340 pe buyback karun again aasra kara aur avoid kara... phir 300 ke support mind mai rakh k 305 pe khareednay ka soocha again and again kismat nay saath dia aur phir yeh sooch k avoid kar gaya k kuch na kuch garbar hai...
jab aik share k saath itna kuch drama dekh lia tou other shares lucky cement waghaira bhi sell kardalay sirf aik hee trading session main market rates....
Aaj Alhumdolillah aap ka Bhai pur sukoon hai MashaAllah se
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 18, 2017, 11:37:48 PM
But PSMC main aisa kuch nahi hay. GHNL ki production last 2 month kiper zero hay. Truk nahi bik rahay. Is lia aisa hoa hay. FEROZ ki heptitas vaccine ki waja se EPS 70 se around 18 rupee ho gaya.

Lakin PSMC kay sath aisa kuch nahi hay. Bas aik YEN RUPEE ki value ka chakkar hay.
PSMC apni full capicity per chal rhi hay.
Revenue All Time high per hay.
500 break karnay ka marlab shadeed oversold ho gaya hay INDEX ki waja se bhi zyada maar pari hay.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 18, 2017, 11:39:57 PM
In Shaa Allah bounce back karay karay ga lakin pehlay yeh daikhna hay kay aur kitna down jata hay
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on August 18, 2017, 11:51:35 PM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain

Bhai it was expensive on valuation then but now its fine

I have projected its 52eps(without orange cab) but now have revised it quite a bit after sales fiqures of cultus n recent quarterly result.
All i am saying that dont do mistake over a mistake,your decision of buying it @ 936 was bit agressive but now on these rates you
need to hold or if you can buy more,whenever market gets stable your stock have potential to move forward

BTW one thing i missed is their glass making subsidiary.

your rate will come one day all you need is to hold
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on August 18, 2017, 11:55:36 PM
And just pray that one fine morning you can hear the news that BOP is finalising deal with PSMC  :s1:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 19, 2017, 12:00:39 AM
But PSMC main aisa kuch nahi hay. GHNL ki production last 2 month kiper zero hay. Truk nahi bik rahay. Is lia aisa hoa hay. FEROZ ki heptitas vaccine ki waja se EPS 70 se around 18 rupee ho gaya.

Lakin PSMC kay sath aisa kuch nahi hay. Bas aik YEN RUPEE ki value ka chakkar hay.
PSMC apni full capicity per chal rhi hay.
Revenue All Time high per hay.
500 break karnay ka marlab shadeed oversold ho gaya hay INDEX ki waja se bhi zyada maar pari hay.
iske elawa kuch brokerage houses aur individuals clients ko kahin aur kisi items mai maar parti hai aur inkay cash margins Nil hojatay hain tou settlements k liay unko apni deliveries se market rates par haath dhona par jata hai
mumkin hai koe house ya phir individual kisi item mai phasa hoo aur cash settlement na honay ke soorat mai PSMC Searl dgkc luck jaisa maal market rates par baichnay ko majboor hua hoo...
anyhow psmc jaisay items mai ghabranay ke baat nahin balke aisay items tou logg aisay rates par Muft ka maal samajh k buy kartay hain
golden chance for us if some body has some cash in hand
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 19, 2017, 12:05:50 AM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain

Bhai it was expensive on valuation then but now its fine

I have projected its 52eps(without orange cab) but now have revised it quite a bit after sales fiqures of cultus n recent quarterly result.
All i am saying that dont do mistake over a mistake,your decision of buying it @ 936 was bit agressive but now on these rates you
need to hold or if you can buy more,whenever market gets stable your stock have potential to move forward

BTW one thing i missed is their glass making subsidiary.

your rate will come one day all you need is to hold

ALPHA BHAI kyun heart attack de rahay hain.
Bhai meri buying 550 k kareeb hay. 935 tou high tha PSMC ka
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 19, 2017, 12:10:54 AM
But PSMC main aisa kuch nahi hay. GHNL ki production last 2 month kiper zero hay. Truk nahi bik rahay. Is lia aisa hoa hay. FEROZ ki heptitas vaccine ki waja se EPS 70 se around 18 rupee ho gaya.

Lakin PSMC kay sath aisa kuch nahi hay. Bas aik YEN RUPEE ki value ka chakkar hay.
PSMC apni full capicity per chal rhi hay.
Revenue All Time high per hay.
500 break karnay ka marlab shadeed oversold ho gaya hay INDEX ki waja se bhi zyada maar pari hay.
iske elawa kuch brokerage houses aur individuals clients ko kahin aur kisi items mai maar parti hai aur inkay cash margins Nil hojatay hain tou settlements k liay unko apni deliveries se market rates par haath dhona par jata hai
mumkin hai koe house ya phir individual kisi item mai phasa hoo aur cash settlement na honay ke soorat mai PSMC Searl dgkc luck jaisa maal market rates par baichnay ko majboor hua hoo...
anyhow psmc jaisay items mai ghabranay ke baat nahin balke aisay items tou logg aisay rates par Muft ka maal samajh k buy kartay hain
golden chance for us if some body has some cash in hand
Allah ka shukar hay 2003 kay baad se BADLA ya MARGIN se TOOBA kar li thi. Ab jo bhi maal hay CASH per hay. yahi ho rha hay DAY END per selling aati hay zyada.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 19, 2017, 12:13:23 AM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain

Bhai it was expensive on valuation then but now its fine

I have projected its 52eps(without orange cab) but now have revised it quite a bit after sales fiqures of cultus n recent quarterly result.
All i am saying that dont do mistake over a mistake,your decision of buying it @ 936 was bit agressive but now on these rates you
need to hold or if you can buy more,whenever market gets stable your stock have potential to move forward

BTW one thing i missed is their glass making subsidiary.

your rate will come one day all you need is to hold

ALPHA BHAI kyun heart attack de rahay hain.
Bhai meri buying 550 k kareeb hay. 935 tou high tha PSMC ka
Heart Attack se Ziada buri beemari Sugar hai .. bas tum fikar karna chorr doo warna mujhe darr hai kahin tumko sugar na hojaii.... :tongue:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 19, 2017, 12:26:34 AM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain

Bhai it was expensive on valuation then but now its fine

I have projected its 52eps(without orange cab) but now have revised it quite a bit after sales fiqures of cultus n recent quarterly result.
All i am saying that dont do mistake over a mistake,your decision of buying it @ 936 was bit agressive but now on these rates you
need to hold or if you can buy more,whenever market gets stable your stock have potential to move forward

BTW one thing i missed is their glass making subsidiary.

your rate will come one day all you need is to hold

ALPHA BHAI kyun heart attack de rahay hain.
Bhai meri buying 550 k kareeb hay. 935 tou high tha PSMC ka
Heart Attack se Ziada buri beemari Sugar hai .. bas tum fikar karna chorr doo warna mujhe darr hai kahin tumko sugar na hojaii.... :tongue:
ALLAH KAIR KARAY   ::) ::)
RSI 13 daikh kar kuch samjh nahi arha tha. waisay itna kam RSI first time daikha hay. Ho sakta hay is se bhi kam ho lakin kabhi dehaan nahi diya
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ali on August 19, 2017, 12:38:30 AM
Today i was planning to buy in second session near 475 but huge selling witnessed. Purchase at 471 and sold today at 468. Few shares still left but i see short recovery Monday InshaAllah. Can show 485 on Monday.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 19, 2017, 12:38:50 AM
SBM & FARZOOQ bhai, aap kuch bta saktay hain kya kiya jaye PSMC ka. 550 Ki Buying hay kafi loss ho rha hay.
kahan per ruk sakta hay?
Daily down ho rha hay?

Apnay HIGH 936 se 463 ho gaya hay woh bhi sirf 2 months main, 50% drop  :bangin: :bangin: :bangin:

SBM & FARZOOQ bhai aap hi kuch suggest kar dain.... THANKS

I can give you future growth triggers:

1)Oranga cab scheme 50k,most likely contributed by psmc

2)Alto 660cc coming in 1q 2018

Yahi batain soch kar aur 936 k high k baad 550 ka low daikh kar hi buy kiya tha. Lakin is ki tou breaks fail ho gaye hain

Bhai it was expensive on valuation then but now its fine

I have projected its 52eps(without orange cab) but now have revised it quite a bit after sales fiqures of cultus n recent quarterly result.
All i am saying that dont do mistake over a mistake,your decision of buying it @ 936 was bit agressive but now on these rates you
need to hold or if you can buy more,whenever market gets stable your stock have potential to move forward

BTW one thing i missed is their glass making subsidiary.

your rate will come one day all you need is to hold

ALPHA BHAI kyun heart attack de rahay hain.
Bhai meri buying 550 k kareeb hay. 935 tou high tha PSMC ka
Heart Attack se Ziada buri beemari Sugar hai .. bas tum fikar karna chorr doo warna mujhe darr hai kahin tumko sugar na hojaii.... :tongue:
ALLAH KAIR KARAY   ::) ::)
RSI 13 daikh kar kuch samjh nahi arha tha. waisay itna kam RSI first time daikha hay. Ho sakta hay is se bhi kam ho lakin kabhi dehaan nahi diya
yaar psx mai bhi Surgeons Doctors RMOs bethay bijli ke iron ka jhatka dainay k liay ... ghabra matt PSMC ko JPMC " Jinnah post graduate medical centre" mai janay se bacha lain gay  :laugh:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 19, 2017, 12:44:18 AM
Today i was planning to buy in second session near 475 but huge selling witnessed. Purchase at 471 and sold today at 468. Few shares still left but i see short recovery Monday InshaAllah. Can show 485 on Monday.
tum nay tafreeh mai 471 ke limit place kari hogi aur soocha hoga " Aai ga hee nahin maal" aur achank se tumko maal mila aur tumharay moo se bayikhtiar nikla hoga " Lahoola wala Quwata.."  :laugh:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ali on August 19, 2017, 12:54:24 AM
i purchased intentionally but it dint recovered
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 19, 2017, 12:59:57 AM
i purchased intentionally but it dint recovered
Zyda down ki waja yahi hay k aapjab ne 471 per buy kiya aur ghabra k 468 main sale kar diya.
Aisa kafi zyda log kartay hain day trade k risk le kar.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Ali on August 19, 2017, 01:08:11 AM
Yes, i didnt trade in this script for years. First time after many years saw his RSI30  which seems to be low in this situation and predicted that it should recovered. Will sold remaining quantity on Monday.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: aharoon on August 19, 2017, 01:10:49 AM
i purchased intentionally but it dint recovered
Zyda down ki waja yahi hay k aapjab ne 471 per buy kiya aur ghabra k 468 main sale kar diya.
Aisa kafi zyda log kartay hain day trade k risk le kar.
aik cheez aur bhi tou soocho k Ali ghabraya kion tha???
iss liay ghabraya tha k 470 k rates par bhi isko kahin se buying interest show nahin hoo raha tha ..warna iss rate pe tou psmc k liay 100000 150000 shares ke buying/support bids aani chaheay thi
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: mapk12 on August 19, 2017, 09:58:37 AM
I think its due to FAW motors launch of new vehicle totally manufactured in PAK.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: karehman on August 21, 2017, 03:45:05 PM
ab tou ruk ja, lagta hay RSI minus main jaye ga
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on August 21, 2017, 05:58:43 PM
ab tou ruk ja, lagta hay RSI minus main jaye ga

Market tests one's resolve again n again

waisey hamarey mulk main one needs steels balls  :crying_anim02:
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Stock_Cheeta on August 21, 2017, 08:17:03 PM
I think its due to FAW motors launch of new vehicle totally manufactured in PAK.
Plz dont compare PSMC with FAW wo din ki 25 gardi banata hai ye 500
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Rokie on August 23, 2017, 11:30:13 AM
Suzuki bhi achi lag rahi hai
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Rokie on August 23, 2017, 10:26:19 PM
MashaAllah  :dance :dance
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: nahiyar on August 30, 2017, 03:22:16 PM
Yar koi expert batao k aakhir psmc k sath masla kia hai?? Q ye uper nahi jata or bas girta hee rehta hai, uper janaybka koi chance b hai ya nahi??
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Rokie on September 05, 2017, 12:49:13 PM
Suna hai kuch acha expected hai ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on September 05, 2017, 02:52:28 PM
PSMC now has  real competitor in Faw motors.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 05, 2017, 05:21:10 PM
PSMC now has  real competitor in Faw motors.

faw hardly sells any cars ... and the cars they make are of real shitty quality
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Rokie on September 05, 2017, 05:38:12 PM
PSMC now has  real competitor in Faw motors.

faw hardly sells any cars ... and the cars they make are of real shitty quality
FAW should not be compared with anyone .. really a shit

Alhamdulillah PSMC Cap
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on September 05, 2017, 07:00:12 PM
PSMC now has  real competitor in Faw motors.

faw hardly sells any cars ... and the cars they make are of real shitty quality

Do you think @ lower price people would not opt for it over PSMC? i men ppl buy 600k cr cos they dont hve  choice..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: jamalakhter on September 05, 2017, 11:35:59 PM
PSMC now has  real competitor in Faw motors.

faw hardly sells any cars ... and the cars they make are of real shitty quality
FAW should not be compared with anyone .. really a shit

Alhamdulillah PSMC Cap
can u give a reason 2 prove FAW shit
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on September 06, 2017, 11:37:38 AM
PSMC now has  real competitor in Faw motors.

faw hardly sells any cars ... and the cars they make are of real shitty quality
FAW should not be compared with anyone .. really a shit

Alhamdulillah PSMC Cap
can u give a reason 2 prove FAW shit

take a test drive, you will find many reasons
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on September 07, 2017, 03:48:56 PM
Suzuki Dealers offering vitara gl and glx models at 5 to 7 lacs discount to official price.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Koolfire on September 19, 2017, 07:48:37 PM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/102862.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Koolfire on September 26, 2017, 08:55:44 PM
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/103250.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on September 26, 2017, 10:08:11 PM
Dacoits, weren't they threatening to take their investment some other country & now they expand no sooner than the govt sys "not interested".
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SlowTyperr on September 26, 2017, 11:05:56 PM
What are the expectations from this share?
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on September 27, 2017, 01:01:38 AM
Good expectations, if rupee holds its ground then weaker yen would ply wonders for the numbers.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 20, 2017, 08:25:03 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd (PSMC): Higher volumes and weaker JPY to take earnings northward

Friday, 20 October 2017

By: Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt.) Limited
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd (PSMC) will announce its 3QCY17 results on Tuesday, October 24, 2017. We expect the company to post 3QCY17 EPS of PKR 11.93/share (PAT: PKR 982mn), up by 124% YoY and 43% QoQ, taking 9MCY17 EPS to PKR 36.13/share (PAT: PKR 2.97bn).
The expected increase in earnings is due to high sale volumes, as the company’s volumetric sale increased 30% YoY and 12% QoQ. We also expect company’s margins to rebound on the back of depreciation of JPY against USD on a YoY basis, and greater sale of high margin (more localized) products
The company recorded healthy sale numbers during 3QCY17, as the company sold 32.8k units during the quarter, up 30% YoY and 12% QoQ. Growth in volumetric sale is mainly attributable to strong sale from WagonR and newly launched Cultus, up 71% YoY and 56% YoY respectively.
Other major variants, Mehran (up 27% YoY), Ravi (up 21% YoY) and Bolan (up 3% YoY) also supported the volumes. We expect company to report revenue of PKR 24.9bn during 3QCY17 (9MCY17: PKR 71.7bn), up 40.0% YoY and 8.5% QoQ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 24, 2017, 12:06:22 PM
PSMC: We see EPS of PSMC to clock in at PKR12.6 (result due on 24th Oct), which reflects a significant 52%QoQ and 137%YoY reflecting a low base. As a result, earnings in 9M17 are likely to be up by 62% YoY to PKR36.8. As per usual payout policy, the result is unlikely to be accompanied by dividend announcement, though the company will likely have to increase its end of year payout or face penalty (7.5% of undistributed profits) in case it is less than 40% of PAT. We attribute this to (1) 3-4% price hike in Bolan and Ravi from Aug’17 coupled with 12%/37%QoQ jump in sales respectively and (2) improved sales mix due to stellar growth in Wagon-R volumes by 14%QoQ (vs total PSMC sales increasing by 12%QoQ) and discontinuation of lower priced Swift in Jun’17. As a result, we expect margins to improve considerably to 10.4% from a steep dip seen in 2Q17 at 8.4%.

bma
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 24, 2017, 12:16:33 PM
PSMC 9M2017 EPS clocks in at Rs37.63, up 65% YoY
 
October 24, 2017 (JS Research)

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) announced 9M2017 results today, where the automobile assembler posted after-tax earnings of Rs 3,097mn (EPS: Rs37.63), up by 65% YoY, compared to Rs 1,874mn (EPS: Rs22.77) in 9M2016. Earnings during 3Q2017 came in at Rs1,105mn (EPS: Rs13.43), reflecting massive growth of 152% YoY. Earnings were in line with our expectations, where earnings growth during the quarter was mainly attributable to 46% YoY growth in net sales owing to 30% YoY jump in volumes and price increases subsequent to 3Q2016. In addition, economies of scale due to higher volumes and 8% YoY depreciation in JPY vis-a-vis US$ during the quarter led to margin accretion of 284bps YoY. Sequentially, earnings jumped by 61% QoQ which we attribute to (1) 13% QoQ growth in top line (volumes up 12% QoQ) (2) relatively stable currency movement during the period and price increases in Bolan and Ravi during Aug-17 leading to 151bps QoQ margin appreciation.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farzooq on October 24, 2017, 12:21:41 PM
PSMC - Earnings grew by whopping 65% YoY in 9M17

Pak Suzuki Motors Co. Ltd. (PSMC) reported higher than expected 3Q17 EPS of PKR13.4 (up by impressive 61% QoQ and 2.5x YoY). On cumulative basis, earnings are up 65% YoY to PKR3.1bn, translating into an EPS of PKR37.6 in 9M17.

Total volumes for the company increased by 12% QoQ in 3Q17, leading to 13%QoQ increase in revenue.

Gross Margins improved to 9.9% in 3Q17 vis-a-vis 8.4% in 2Q17.

We attribute sequential growth in earnings to (i) a 3-4% price hike in Bolan and Ravi in Aug’17 coupled with 12%/37% QoQ jump in sales for the two variants, respectively, and (ii) improved sales mix due to stellar growth in Wagon-R volumes by 14%QoQ together with discontinuation of lower priced Swift in Jun’17.

Lower distribution and selling expenses (down 13% QoQ) is due to higher marketing expense last quarter attributed to new model launch.

Company booked a loss of PKR14.65mn (PKR0.18/sh) from associated company during the quarter.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 24, 2017, 09:35:49 PM
Flash Note


Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited

3Q EPS Jumps 1.5x YoY to Reach PKR13.43/share
 
·         Pak Suzuki Motors Company Limited (PSMC) announced its financial results for the 3Q2017 where the company reported PAT of PKR1.1bn (PKR13.43/share) marking an increase of 1.5x YoY – taking 9M2017 EPS to PKR37.63 (+65%).

·         During the quarter, the company’s topline grew 46% YoY on the back of strong volumetric offtakes. Recall that PSMC’s sales increased 30/12% YoY/QoQ led by strong performance of the Suzuki Wagon R and the new Suzuki Cultus; up 71% and 56% YoY respectively.

·         PSMC’s gross margins during the quarter increased by 2.8ppt against same period last year to clock in at ~10% as the company raised prices for Suzuki Ravi and Suzuki Bolan which form almost 30% of the overall volumetric sales.

·          The company experienced a marked increase of ~33x in Finance Cost which can likely be attributed to interest payments against customer advances at the rate of prevailing KIBOR +2% as per Auto Development Policy 2016.

·         During the outgoing quarter, the company recognized Share of Loss from Associated Company of PKR14.7mn. To recall PSMC had recently made a long term equity investment of PKR344mn in Techno Auto Glass Limited for an equity stake of 40%. The company’s effective tax rate for the quarter clocked in at 30%. 

·         In the Automobile space, we identify HCAR as our top pick where our Jun-18 PT of PKR707/share offers capital upside of 28% and dividend yield of 5% against last day’s closing price.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on October 24, 2017, 10:21:52 PM
(https://scontent-mrs1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/22555192_1714805751896855_8387791349922553186_n.jpg?oh=89e67c95edfd7e399fc06245bd01f276&oe=5A730D9A)
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 13, 2017, 07:45:24 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): CAPEX upliftment could add excitement

Monday, 13 November 2017

By: AKD Securities Limited
With Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) recent CAPEX additions detailed in 9MCY17 accounts, raises our expectations of a possible extension to its product line in the coming six months.
Since the release of AIDP-II and inherent incentives to new entrants setting up the path to enhanced competitive pressures, incumbents have responded in disparate manners.
Picking up on observable trends regarding heightened CAPEX, leading to a new model rollout, or upgradation of previous offerings, we delve into provisioned CAPEX at the company level.
Detailing our observations, we highlight the increased CAPEX commitments (PkR3.6bn in 3QCY17 vs. PkR1.3bn in 4QCY16) and technical fee paid to the Holding company (PkR1.08bn paid during 9MCY17 vs. PkR0.83bn during 9MCY16) as indicative of operational developments, as pickup in both headers has preceded the last two CKD model launches.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Farhan Kermani on November 13, 2017, 09:20:17 PM
Such stellar performance for October.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 15, 2017, 06:23:30 PM
The Company is endeavoring to improve sales, profitability and diversity in its operations by upgrading the existing
products and launching new products. Pak Suzuki launched its first crossover ‘Suzuki Vitara’ on December 21,
2016 and 1400cc sedan ‘Suzuki Ciaz’ on February 8, 2017. Both vehicles received overwhelming response from
customers due to their drive, unique design, refined interior and advanced safety features. Launching of ‘Ciaz’
and ‘Vitara’ will facilitate the Company to penetrate in higher segment vehicles. The Company launched new
Suzuki Cultus on April 22, 2017. The new Suzuki Cultus introduced with power-packed features like ABS brakes,
airbags, electronic power steering, electric windows and electrically adjustable side view mirrors. Its modern
3-cylinder 1000cc k-series engine ensures great fuel efficiency and is designed to provide an extraordinary driving
pleasure. Suzuki WagonR is preforming exceptionally well in 1000cc hatchback segment. With the launch of
new Suzuki Cultus, Company has further strengthened its position in this segment. The new models were well
accepted by customers. We expect that launching of new models with advance features will attract the customers
and the demand for new models will increase.


https://www.paksuzuki.com.pk/Automobile/PDF%20file/Financial/Third_Yearly%20Report-2017.pdf
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 15, 2017, 06:24:35 PM
i believe they are working to bring another locally assembled model ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 15, 2017, 06:26:26 PM
i believe they are working to bring another locally assembled model ..

in 9m they have invested 2.5 billion and have committed to invest another 3.6 billion in the coming 12 months
"
12.1 Capital expenditure contracted for but not incurred amounted to Rs. 3,626 million (2016: Rs.1,344.7 million)."

has to be  a new model ...
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 15, 2017, 06:35:04 PM
i believe they are working to bring another locally assembled model ..

yes 660 alto by march also I got pictures from an acquaintance of Suzuki's new plant near Lahore
or sheikhupra rd,not clear is it a new plant for cars or parts making plant but the infrastructure is huge
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 18, 2017, 06:59:12 PM
http://www.suzuki.co.id/flipbook/915/index.html

https://www.suzuki.co.id/automobile/mega-carry-xtra

new lcv going to be sold by psmc

costs 10 lacs in indonesia
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: Alpha on November 19, 2017, 04:33:44 PM
http://www.suzuki.co.id/flipbook/915/index.html

https://www.suzuki.co.id/automobile/mega-carry-xtra

new lcv going to be sold by psmc

costs 10 lacs in indonesia

Interesting
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 20, 2017, 11:45:43 AM
http://www.suzuki.co.id/flipbook/915/index.html

https://www.suzuki.co.id/automobile/mega-carry-xtra

new lcv going to be sold by psmc

costs 10 lacs in indonesia

Interesting

https://epaper.dawn.com/Advt.php?StoryImage=20_11_2017_014_006
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 20, 2017, 11:52:30 AM
https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/breaking-pak-suzuki-launch-new-suzuki-mega-carry/
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: SBM on November 20, 2017, 01:07:24 PM
https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/breaking-pak-suzuki-launch-new-suzuki-mega-carry/

as per suzuki indonesia payload is 870 kilos ..
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 21, 2017, 07:45:35 PM
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC): Launch of “Mega Carry” pick-up

Monday, 20 November 2017

By: Foundation Securities (Pvt.) Limited
Pak Suzuki (PSMC PA) is set to launch “Mega Carry” (pick-up) in the start of December 2017. The vehicle would be an imported variant from Indonesia with a price of Rs~1.5mn. We expect, the impact would start reflecting in 1QCY18 with an earning sensitivity of ~Rs0.9/sh on every 1,000 units sale
Pak Suzuki (PSMC PA) is set to launch “Mega Carry” (pick-up) in the start of December 2017. The company has already started booking for the vehicle that will be imported from Indonesia (2-3months delivery time). The price is set at ~Rs1.5mn.
Though Mega Carry is higher in price compared to other options available in market, the greater engine size (1,499cc vs 1,000cc/800cc of FAW Carrier/Suzuki Ravi) and better durability would encourage customers for the demand of this varia
We believe, the vehicle would be a timely addition to its commercial vehicle segment (Ravi currently) which is a direct play on Pakistan’s construction and economic activities revival.
Title: Re: PSMC -- Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.
Post by: MZ on November 22, 2017, 05:40:4