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The Market ! => Pak Equities => Topic started by: Admin on October 24, 2009, 12:53:46 PM

Title: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Admin on October 24, 2009, 12:53:46 PM
All About Allied Bank
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Admin on October 24, 2009, 12:53:56 PM
ABL to post EPS of PRs6.66 in 9M2009
During 9M2009, ABL’s net income is expected to arrive at PRs4.7bn (EPS
PRs6.66) or 27% higher as against PRs3.7bn (EPS PRs5.26) in the same period of
last year. In 3Q2009, the bank’s earnings is expected at PRs1.7bn (EPS PRs2.35)
– a significant increase of 36% Y-o-Y and 4% on Q-o-Q basis. Significant expected
growth in the bank’s Net Interest Income (NII) to partially support its bottomline.
NII is expected to jump by 38% to PRs13.6bn in the wake of higher margins. In
addition to this, non interest income is also expected to depict a massive growth
of 81% to PRs5.2bn mainly due to higher expected fee & commission income and
gain on sale of investment. However, impressive income growth is to partly offset
in the wake of 10-fold higher credit provisions at PRs3.1bn in 9M2009 versus
only PRs315mn in the same period of last year. Moreover, admin expenses are
also expected to increase by 25% to PRs7.1bn. Our fair value for the scrip is
PRs58/share and ‘Buy’ is recommended at the current trading levels.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Admin on October 26, 2009, 01:53:36 PM
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2009
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,492.364
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 5,027.392
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. EPS = 7.07
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2009
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,475.559
26-OCT-09 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,462.231
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on December 02, 2009, 12:52:43 PM
After credit suise reoprt on ABL,AKD also has initiated coverage on ABL with buy rating for a target price of PKR 80
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Admin on December 03, 2009, 09:27:44 AM
After credit suise reoprt on ABL,AKD also has initiated coverage on ABL with buy rating for a target price of PKR 80

ABL: Standing out of the crowd

We initiate coverage of Allied Bank Limited (ABL), the fifth largest commercial bank in Pakistan in terms of asset base, with a Buy rating and a target price of PkR80/share (22.3% upside). We believe the bank is well positioned to leverage the ongoing U-shaped domestic economic recovery. ABL's earnings have increased by 35%YoY in 9MCY09, in sharp contrast to a decline of 3%YoY posted by the sector. As a result, ABL has outperformed the banking sector by 55%CYTD. We base our expectations of further price performance on our forecasted 3-year (CY08-CY11F) EPS CAGR of 25%, the highest within the AKD Banking Universe.

In our view, this growth will be driven by: 1) strong domestic corporate linkages and low asset quality drag, 2) likely effective entry in higher-yielding segments, 3) deposit restructuring leading to limited NIM erosion and 4) consistently increasing cost efficiencies. ABL is trading at a CY10F Tier-I P/B multiple of 1.43x and a PER of 7.24x. Our target price of PkR80/share implies upside of 22.3% from current levels. Buy!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on December 13, 2009, 11:04:07 PM
Biggest robbery in Karachi; Rs52 mln looted

    Updated at: 2200 PST, Sunday, December 13, 2009 
    KARACHI: The biggest robbery of the country’s history of Rs520 million has been carried out in the metropolitan city of Karachi by breaking into the lockers of a private bank.

The looted money comprises local and foreign currencies. A bag containing 40,000 British pounds has been recovered from a police official’s house. The family members of the police official had left the bag home which contained foreign currency.

According to police, the bank guards are involved in the bank robbery while raids are being carried out to arrest the other robbers.

Police has also taken into custody two bank guards and recovered Rs5 million.

The police have claimed to have learned about the whereabouts of the guard mainly involved in the robbery. He has been identified as Shahid Mehmood son of Abdul Majeed, holding NIC issued in Faisalabad.

Police have announced a reward of Rs2 million for information leading to the capture of the guard.
       


Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on December 15, 2009, 09:32:57 AM
Customers reassured: full insurance coverage of cash balances: ABL

KARACHI (December 15 2009): Allied Bank has reassured its customers that there was no reason for them to worry about their deposits and lockers, following a robbery at its Foreign Exchange Branch, in Karachi on Sunday. The bank follows robust security procedures and has full insurance coverage of its cash balances", an ABL spokesman said, adding that all the customer-related record including lockers are absolutely safe and secure.

The I.I. Chundrigar Road branch is providing services to its valued clients without any interruptions and is doing business as usual, said the spokesman. ABL senior executive Tariq Mahmood, Group Chief, Operations, Aun Ali, Group Head South; Mirza Anwar Hussain, Head Branch Operations South, GM Geddy, Regional Head, City Region and Abdul Hafeez Butt, Group Head of Branch Banking Operations reached the Foreign Exchange branch as soon as they received the news of the break and remained there till late in the night facilitating the DIG Police, Karachi South, Ghulam Nabi Memon.

To a query, the spokesman said that CCTV cameras installed at all Allied Bank branches are of high quality and in compliance with the State Bank requirements, while same technology is also being used by other leading banks. However, the burglars had disabled the CCTV cameras as well as all the other security equipment such as the alarm system, prior to breaking open one of its nine safes, he pointed out.

According to the official version of the bank, Shahid Mahmood, a security guard posted at the branch, over powered the security personnel present at the branch with the help of four unknown accomplices on Sunday morning. They broke into the double-vault strong room with the help of gas cutters after disabling the smoke detectors, fire alarm system and CCTV cameras. One out of the nine safes was broken with the help of a gas cutter.

The culprits took away foreign exchange worth over Rs 312 million including Pak currency notes worth Rs 28,000. Currency notes of Rupees 685,000 were also found burnt/damaged. The spokesman said two of the suspects, Imran and Zamir Hussain, both security guards posted at the said branch, have been under arrest while the prime suspect Shahid Mahmood, along with other four unknown companions, is absconding. Police investigations are underway and further updates will be provided to the media as soon as available, concluded the spokesman.-PR
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on December 31, 2009, 06:48:08 AM
Buy ABL with stoploss 58.trend is bullish
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on December 31, 2009, 09:50:58 AM
Bought some ABL @ Rs. 60
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on January 06, 2010, 03:47:45 AM
Buy ABL with stop below 58 trend is bullish
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on January 06, 2010, 01:47:28 PM
Buy ABL with stop below 58 trend is bullish

ABL going well today.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on January 13, 2010, 12:54:16 PM
taking a position, comments?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on January 13, 2010, 01:14:01 PM
taking a position, comments?

looking good , :goodl:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: abcd on January 13, 2010, 03:15:59 PM
taking a position, comments?

looking good , :goodl:
i got 2day
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on January 17, 2010, 01:55:12 AM
ABL – Lowering risks:  

Recent increase in cement prices by PkR10- PkR12/bag alleviates concerns regarding the cement sector, notwithstanding
need for further price increases going forward. This is particularly beneficial
for ABL considering its above average (~6% of loans) exposure to the
cement sector. Further triggers include 1) potential booking of FSV reversals
(non availed so far) and 2) continuation of good capital gains track record.The
scrip offers an upside of 28.1% to our target price of PkR80.0 /share. Buy!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: abcd on January 17, 2010, 02:33:02 PM
my top pick amongst banks
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on January 21, 2010, 01:45:57 PM
i got stopped out at 64, should i buy it back?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on January 21, 2010, 02:18:53 PM
 :(

i think i made a mistake by expecting/waiting for 62
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Learner7 on January 21, 2010, 02:24:29 PM
:(

i think i made a mistake by expecting/waiting for 62


You will get that level, have patience.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: abcd on January 21, 2010, 11:31:54 PM
Strong buy
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Toshi on January 21, 2010, 11:47:13 PM
Day trade only
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: azam56 on January 22, 2010, 07:31:47 AM
ALLIED BANK LIMITED  

Analysis of Financial Statements Financial Year 2004 - 2003 Q 2009  


OVERVIEW (January 22 2010): Established in Lahore in 1942, Allied Bank Limited is one of the largest banks operating in Pakistan with more than 700 branches in almost 300 cities and towns. The bank offers a full range of retail, commercial and corporate banking services with a view to service delivery through technology. Additionally, it provides general banking services to the agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout Pakistan. Almost 89% of the bank's deposit base is composed of deposits from the urban areas.

The bank's fundamental strength lies in its strong lending capability, as well as providing a variety of financial services, which has allowed ABL to diversify and enhance its deposit base. The bank also conducts international operations in the UK whereby it caters to the needs of the bank's domestic corporate and other customers in financing import and export transactions. Here, ABL's products include foreign letters of credit, guarantees, remittances, acceptances and collections.

RECENT RESULTS 2003 Q 2009

Pre-tax profit of Allied Bank increased by Rs 1,727 million to Rs 7,476 million and after tax profit by Rs 1,273 million to Rs 5,013 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to Rs 5,749 million and Rs 3,741 million, respectively in the corresponding period of last year. Resultantly, earnings per share increased to Rs 7.05 during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 5.26 for the corresponding period of previous year.

During the nine months under review, net mark-up/interest income increased by 39.1%, which was mainly due to the improved deposit mix. Mark-up/interest spread rose to 6.3% from 5.5% as compared to corresponding period of previous year. Mark-up/interest income grew by 44% over corresponding period of previous year, whereas mark-up/interest expense rose by 48.2%. During the 3Q09 under review, mark up/interest income increased by 29.9% over 3Q08, while Allied Bank has been able to restrict the increase in mark-up/interest expense during the 3Q09 to 30% over the 3Q08, resulting into growth of 29.8% in net mark-up/interest income during 3Q09.

Non-mark-up/interest income rose to Rs 4,695 million during the nine months period ended September 30, 2009, a growth of 61.0% over corresponding period of previous year. The increase was primarily led by higher investment banking fee income, dividend income and capital gain on sale of securities due to better performance of the stock market. Non-mark-up/interest expense increased by 21.8% during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to the corresponding period of previous year. However, it has been controlled during 3Q09 to 12.0% over the corresponding period of previous year.

Deposits increased to Rs 301,588 million as at September 30, 2009. The average deposits increased by 6.8% during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 over the corresponding period of 2008. Advances as at September 30, 2009 are showing a marginal decrease over December 31, 2008. However, the average advances during the nine months of 2009 grew by 19.7% over corresponding period of 2008. The non-performing loans of have increased to Rs 15,795 million as at September 30, 2009 as against Rs 13,772 million as at December 31, 2008 thus increasing the infection ratio from 6.2% to 7.1%.

BANKING INDUSTRY IN FINANCIAL YEAR 2008

In the last quarter, the banking system successfully weathered a liquidity stress. The stress emerged in usual timeframe, ie deposit withdrawals on the occasion of Eid-ul-Fitr and a number of global, domestic and industry-specific factors further compounded it. Major dampening factors such as global financial turmoil, economic slowdown and contractionary monetary policy were compounded by an unusual liquidity stress during October-November 2008.

The current account deficit was quite high and the real exchange rate had significantly appreciated to unsustainable levels, which ultimately put pressure on rupee/dollar exchange rate and led to capital outflows. On top of it, breakdown of capital market in Pakistan and the series of news on the financial meltdown in the advanced markets raised general public doubts about the financial strength of some Pakistani banks.

By this time, due to relatively higher growth in advances, the liquidity profiles of the banks had already been burdened. In this backdrop, the usual post Eid liquidity pressure in interbank market led to rumour-mongering about the banks. The impact was severe in some banks especially the small banks with the constrained liquidity profile in terms of ADR.

The reduction in Cash Reserve Requirements (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Requirements (SLR) requirements in early weeks of October 2008 to manage the liquidity stress resulted in a significant decline in cash and treasury bank balances by the end of Dec-08 quarter thus releasing funds for financing the growth of advances. However, strong capacity developed by the banks and regulators over the years and the offsetting measures taken by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) enabled the system to avert this transitory stress from converting into a financial crisis.

INVESTMENTS

The investments, especially the government papers, which declined in both absolute rupee terms as well as a proportion of total assets during the first nine months of CY08, registered a slight increase during the last quarter. Actually, the heightened credit risk on account of deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals and already constrained liquidity profile induced the banks to shift their preference towards risk-free Market Treasury Bills (MTBs).

The banking system is marked with a high concentration as a small number of banks hold a major share of the system's total assets and deposits. This concentration has been following an overall-declining trend as the medium sized banks gradually gained market share. However, due to unusual liquidity stress that affected mainly the small and medium sized banks, the market share of five large banks inched up to 52.4 percent (51.3 percent in Sep-08).

DEPOSITS

The deposit component, which used to witness a strong growth in last quarter, registered a slow growth of Rs 153 billion (3.8 percent) this year. Incidentally, foreign remittances, a key factor behind the recent year's strong growth in deposits, maintained the momentum and grew by 17 percent over the CY08.

The industry has been witnessing a gradual shift in deposits from savings to term deposits for quite some time. This trend emerged largely in response to SBP's policy incentives to encourage the mobilization of longer-terms deposit so as to reduce the maturity mismatches. Consequently, fixed deposits gained a significant share of savings deposits since 2004. However, SBP's policy drive to increase the CRR and SLR in the last week of Jun 08 and exemption of long-term deposits also from SLR requirements during the last quarter seem to have considerably invigorated this trend (Other factors like general rise in interest rates and innovative deposits scheme have also augmented depositors preference for terms deposits).

ADVANCES

During the quarter under review, advances witnessed a significant slowdown in sharp contrast to industry's established patterns for the last quarter. The worsening business and economic environment somewhat increased the credit risk, which compelled the banks to adopt cautious lending strategy, particularly in consumer sector where the advances have been decreasing since the start of CY08. Some new loans have been issued, of which, a significant portion was disbursed to public sector enterprises (PSEs).

CY08 however observed a deviation in the growth pattern of advances. Slackness in the demand for bank credit during CY07 coupled with slowdown in economic activities and tightening of monetary regime, forced the banks to reposition their lending strategy and asset profile. The asset mix of the banking system gradually shifted from lending to investments during the first three quarters of CY07.

PROFITABILITY

Currently, the cumulative profit of 22 listed commercial banks has declined by 21% to Rs 50.3 billion in 2008 as compared to Rs 63.6 Billion earned in the same period in 2007, mainly due to higher provisions for non-performing loans (NPLs) and impairment loss. The full year profits of CY08 were however lower than profits for the last couple of years but still it remained profitable. The overall profitability was neutralizing due to more than proportionate increase in operating expenses and provisioning for loan losses.

In absolute terms, expenses increased by 33.4 percent to Rs 235.8 billion in CY08, which affected the overall profitability of the system. In addition to higher provisions, enhanced branch network with increased human resource base has soared the expense of the system during the last quarter under review. Moreover, stock market crash in the second half of 2008 resulted in bank recognizing impairment loss of Rs 12 Billion as against only Rs 287 million recognized in 2007.

High spreads of 7.29% in 2008 and strong advances growth of 19% supported the net interest income, while non-interest income increased by 11% on the back of surge in exchange gain as rupee remained volatile against the dollar. The annual audited results of the top five banks for the year 2008 show that their profitability on average has remained at the previous year's level. The assets distribution on the basis of ROA shows that 16 banks, holding 67.9 percent market share, have ROA of one percent and below.

The banking sector in Pakistan has remained somewhat insulated from the global financial turmoil and has maintained its profitability albeit the slower growth. The prevailing global economic downturn nevertheless has the potential to impair corporate and business profitability that may ultimately heighten the credit risk and may affect the earnings of the banking sector in the quarters ahead.

NPLs

This rise in NPLs observed across all the banking groups except specialized banks, where NPLs have actually decreased. NPLs have been on the rise mainly due to poor economic performance of the economy and the FSV benefit therefore resulting in worsening of asset quality ratios. Total provisions for NPLs surged to Rs 53 billion in 2008 as against Rs 42 billion in 2007, an astounding growth of 27% largely due to slowdown in economic growth.

The composition of segment wise NPLs of the banking system shows that infection ratio of all the segments except agriculture have increased. The infection ratio of consumer finance portfolio increased in CY08 (2.3 percent over the year). Rising inflation and contained disposable incomes coupled with increasing lending rate have reduced consumers' appetite for credit as well as their repayment capacity, resulting in increasing defaults rate in the consumer finance.

Interestingly, in the wake of economic slowdown, banks seem to facilitate the businesses through rescheduling/restructuring of loans, the textile sector being the major beneficiary. Latest banking industry numbers show an effort to keep balance sheets clear of NPLs by recognizing and providing for NPLs on criteria that are more stringent. This approach might look costly in the meantime but in the long run it'll definitely benefit banks by providing a cushion to withstand losses.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (DECEMBER 2003-DECEMBER 2008)

The bank realized an income (profit after tax) of Rs 4.156 billion which inched up by 2% over last year. This trend is common in whole industry. Most of the banks in the industry were not able to earn high profits like previous years, as this year was too harsh economically. The interest income earned this year was 44% high this year, but to match this interest expense rose by 64%. The overall effect was 26% increase in Net interest income. The interest expenses were high due to a minimum 5% deposit rate by SBP of Pakistan. This was done to ensure that depositors get the minimum rate as banks have been exploiting the consumers. Now this year National Savings Schemes offered better rates so it provided competition.

The non-interest income grew by 6% this year. This was mainly due to dividend income, fee and commission, and income from dealing in foreign currencies. The Non-interest income was matched by a 40% increase in Non-interest income. These expenses were contributed by administrative expenses. Admin expenses were high, as the inflation was high this year, which resulted in higher wages. This inflation adjustment added manifold to the costs. Overall the profit before tax was high by 3%.

The deposits in this year grew by 13%. These mainly included the fixed customer accounts. And significant decreases in current account (remunerative accounts). The deposits growth was no in line with industry. Overall the industry faced stunted growth of deposits. The advances grew by 26% more than any Bank in industry. The advances growth was dominated by Short term loans as the industry is risky this year with low economic activity. The earnings profile of the bank shows marked improvement over the period under consideration.

Over last few years there has been hardly any change in the earnings ratios as most the elements increased promotionally. These have been mainly achieved through considerable improvements in equity and profits of the bank. The bank's interest and non-interest income continued to grow. The bank's performing advances were higher this time. Though the yield on the earning assets grew, this was offset by a higher cost of funding that increased by about 54%. In spite of that and the decline in banking sector spread, the bank's profitability picture remained positive, indicating that the bank has prudent policies in place for handling its deposits, advances and investments.

Of the non-interest income, the highest increase came from fee, commission and brokerage income as well income from the purchase and sale of securities. The bank is predicted to continue its growth momentum in the future. Its earnings per share for the year ended 2007 are predicted to be somewhere around Rs 13-14. Asset quality has greatly improved over the years, manifesting the fact that the bank maintains its credit risk tactfully and has well diversified credit portfolio that reduces large exposures tremendously. The bank's asset quality ratios have shown a remarkable downward trend, which translates into enhanced asset quality.

The bank registered a marginal increase of 2.6% over the last year. Nevertheless, the bank has been able to contain the growth of its NPLs. This reflects a sound credit policy that has resulted in higher performing advances. Consequently, the bank also lowered its provisions for the NPLs, enabling greater amount of funds available for earning purposes. It can also be said that in response to higher costs of obtaining funds, the bank has utilized its advances very efficiently. This year NPLs growth has been 6%, on a comparative basis it's better than industry. The throughout industry the average growth of NPLs has been close to 30 %. So in this respect ABL performed well.

Debt management of the company has improved considerably over the years especially from their precarious situation experienced in 2003. This improvement has been complemented by an impressive asset management approach. The debt ratios of the bank have declined, indicating increasing equity portion of the bank's assets. Generally, this has been the trend in the entire banking industry perhaps due to higher interest rates resulting in higher cost of borrowings and the MCR requirements as proposed by the State Bank.

Continuous expansion in Pakistan's economy, growth in per capita income, and rising interest rates for time deposits were the main reasons for the continued increase in the deposits in the 9 months. As is the entire banking industry experiencing, the composition of the deposits is shifting from fixed deposits to savings deposits. This is poised to generate a higher return. All the liquidity ratios of the bank have been maintained at favorable levels. Hence, the bank is positioned to be in a comfortable position to guard against any credit risks, any run on deposits or any significant increase in its NPLs.

Other than customer's deposits, the bank's funding source is the interbank money market. Change in the government monetary policy and market expectations of interest rate are all the important factors that can adversely affect Allied's key funding source. The earning assets of the bank have been growing all throughout. Higher deposits are being streamed into greater advances, investments and lendings, all generating a higher return. The cost of funds is raising parallel to the yield, however, at a much lower level. This liquidity consistency may be attributed to the excess liquidity that prevailed in the industry due to high reserve growth of the banking sector.

While expanding the advances portfolio, efficient portfolio diversification has been a key consideration of Allied, always. This diversification has taken into account the volatility of various sectors by placing concentration limits on lending to these sectors, thereby ensuring a diversified advances portfolio. The bank has the greatest investments in government securities, followed by in listed companies and then mutual funds. The government securities (mainly PIBs and T-bills) are considered liquid and availing less risk. The solvency ratios of the bank have persistently shown an upward trend throughout 2003-2006.

This indicates bright prospects of long-term sustainability of the bank. The solvency ratios of the bank for the last there years have been maintained in the vicinity of each other. The increasing equity portion of the bank explains this. This may be regarded as a move against the rise in deposits rates and a decrease in the banking spread of the banking sector. This healthy trend in solvency may be predicted to continue in the future. The market value of the bank continues to remain high. The bank was listed on the stock exchange only in 2005. Hence, 2003 and 2004 show no values for the market value ratios.

The bank has been a consistent distributor of dividends. The increased profitability of the banking sector (an increase of around 100%) has made this sector one of the most lucrative ones to invest. This increasing marketability profile is reflective of Allied's high yields on earning assets and favorable liquidity and solvency positions. We may expect such trend to continue into the future.

The bank has maintained its reputation as one of the consistent payers of dividends. The high share price of the bank is accountable for this trend. The profits are likely to increase for the year-end 2007, resulting in greater EPS for the bank. The beta is positively related to the market, as it is apparent from the graph with the red line. The market was closed for most of the period in the last quarter so there isn't any significant change seen in prices.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sadlik on February 07, 2010, 07:30:44 PM
buy call!!!!!!!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Mr.TOOL on February 07, 2010, 07:49:13 PM
buy call!!!!!!!

 :smoky:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2010, 10:33:44 AM
bm 17th feb
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 12, 2010, 10:15:53 AM
bm 17th feb

Farzooq Bhai should I buy ABL at this level  :skeptic:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 12, 2010, 10:19:28 AM
bm 17th feb

Farzooq Bhai should I buy ABL at this level  :skeptic:

making new highs so buy with stop
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 12, 2010, 10:40:17 AM
Approaching is the breakout level of 66.50. A sustained move above gives a target of PKR68.90 - 72.00.  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 12, 2010, 11:26:23 AM
Approaching is the breakout level of 66.50. A sustained move above gives a target of PKR68.90 - 72.00.  :biggthumpup:

Bought at 65.95 till 17 Feb. Wish me luck guys  :thanks:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 15, 2010, 11:16:50 AM
ABL Result Preview - Positive Earnings Suprise in CY09E

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to deliver an upside earnings surprise driven by higher NIMs and lower credit costs when it reports its CY09 results on Feb 17'10. During CY09, we expect ABL to post 73% growth in earnings with a Profit After Tax (PAT) of PKR 7,074mn (EPS: PKR 9.95) against PAT of PKR 4,095mn (EPS: PKR 5.76) last year. Moreover, we expect the company to announce a final cash dividend of PKR 2 per share taking the full year payout to PKR 4 per share.

Valuation

The scrip is trading at 2009E PE and PB multiples of 6.6x and 1.6x respectively. We will be adjusting our estimates after the release of CY09 results incorporating trends in balance sheet growth and net interest spreads.

IGI Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 16, 2010, 09:50:02 AM
Approaching is the breakout level of 66.50. A sustained move above gives a target of PKR68.90 - 72.00.  :biggthumpup:

Bought at 65.95 till 17 Feb. Wish me luck guys  :thanks:

LAAAAAAAOOOOOO MAAAAALLLLL  :shoaby:  :banana:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 16, 2010, 11:54:57 AM
Banks: ABL - CY09 Result Preview

   ABL is scheduled to announce its CY09 result on Wednesday, 17th Feb 2010; we expect full year unconsolidated PAT to come in at PKR6.9bn (EPS: PKR9.7) as against CY08 PAT of PKR4.2bn (EPS: PKR5.85), growth of 66%YoY. We also expect DPS of PKR1.5 to be announced for 4Q, taking full year dividend to PKR3.5

   For 4QCY09 we project unconsolidated PAT to clock in at PKR1.9bn (EPS: PKR2.65). On a YoY basis, this is over 4x increase in earnings while over 3QCY09 it reflects 3.6% decline

   We are currently in the process of finalizing our fair value for the stock but keeping in view the bank’s strong performance during the year and expected profitability growth in its upcoming full year results, we feel that investors should take exposure in the stock as strong fundamentals warrant a BUY stance
 
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 16, 2010, 12:40:41 PM
ABL expected to post 2009 EPS of Rs9.2 js
We expect ABL to post earnings of Rs6.5bn (EPS Rs9.2) as
against earnings of Rs4.2 (EPS Rs5.8), a significant rise of
57%YoY. In 4Q alone, we expect the bank to post earnings of
Rs1.5bn (EPS Rs2.1). We also anticipate the bank will
announce a dividend of Rs1.5/share, taking the cumulative
dividend to Rs3.5/share for the year. We do not rule out the
possibility of a bonus issue with the announcement.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 16, 2010, 03:21:15 PM
Buy on close above PKR67.60 targeting PKR69.00 - 70.00.  :shoaby:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on February 17, 2010, 01:37:08 PM
...results not out yet but the share just tanked...

insider trading? :what4: >:( >:(
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 17, 2010, 01:38:47 PM
eps 10.02 dps 2 bonus 10%
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 17, 2010, 01:46:20 PM
eps 10.02 dps 2 bonus 10%

I think it is a good result. Above expectation. Bonus was not expected. Rate is down b/c buy on rumor sell on news priciple  >:(
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: taus on February 17, 2010, 01:54:18 PM
current rate per buy kerna chahiye??
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on February 17, 2010, 02:04:40 PM
i think so upside should be till atleast 75
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 17, 2010, 02:38:32 PM
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31/12/2009
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,571.622
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (CONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,149.310
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. EPS = 10.06
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31/12/2009
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. DIVIDEND = 20%(F)
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. BONUS ISSUE = 10%
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 10,516.120
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. (UNCONSOLIDATED) PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 7,122.167
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. EPS = 10.02
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 26/03/2010
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. BOOK CLOSURE FROM 20/03/2010
17-FEB-10 ABL Allied Bank Ltd. BOOK CLOSURE TO 26/03/2010
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 17, 2010, 04:47:08 PM
Learner Bhai. What do you recommend about ABL. Hold ya Sell  :down:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Learner7 on February 17, 2010, 05:17:32 PM
Learner Bhai. What do you recommend about ABL. Hold ya Sell  :down:

Bhai, it is going down with with volumes. My view it will trade at 63 - 64. EPS is ok, good.

 
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on February 17, 2010, 05:19:30 PM
Learner Bhai. What do you recommend about ABL. Hold ya Sell  :down:

Bhai, it is going down with with volumes. My view it will trade at 63 - 64. EPS is ok, good.
 

Then should I sell to avoid further loss? any chanes of reversal in near term
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Learner7 on February 17, 2010, 05:30:42 PM

Then should I sell to avoid further loss? any chanes of reversal in near term

Result is announced, charm is over. it may take little rest now.

Now it will move with the main index and Next trigger may be Leverage product.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 18, 2010, 09:29:57 AM
After tax profit of ABL increases to Rs 7.122 billion

RECORDER REPORT
KARACHI (February 18 2010): The profit after tax of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) has increased to Rs 7.122 billion in the year ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 4.156 billion earned in the corresponding period in 2008. The bank's per share earning increased to Rs 10.02 in the period under review against Rs 5.85 in the same period a year back.

The board of directors of the bank, in its meeting held on Wednesday recommended a final cash dividend for the year at Rs 2.00 per share, ie, 20 percent. This is in addition to interim dividend already paid at Rs 2.00 per share, ie, 20 percent. The board also recommended issuing bonus shares, by utilising share premium account, in the proportion of one share for every ten shares held, ie, 10 percent.

According to the financial results, the bank's mark-up/return/interest income increased to Rs 41.121 billion in 2009 against Rs 30.570 billion earned in 2008. The bank's mark-up/return/interest expenses increased to Rs 22.421 billion in this period against Rs 17.272 billion. The bank's total non-mark-up/interest income increased to Rs 5.958 billion against Rs 4.896 billion. The before tax profit of the bank increased to Rs 10.536 billion in the year 2009 against Rs 6.120 billion recorded in the same period in 2008.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on February 23, 2010, 01:57:39 PM
recommend a buy with a stop at 64 target 75 - comments?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 12, 2010, 12:52:48 PM
yaar someone tell abl that its undervalued and that it should go up  :down:

views on this script???
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ASIMS on March 12, 2010, 02:18:46 PM
yaar someone tell abl that its undervalued and that it should go up  :down:

views on this script???

dear ABL is definitely undervalued. its PER is the cheapest in big 5 banks. it should trade higher than UBL.. but im not sure it will go up or not..its target price stands at 80 according to its expected earnings..
anyways i sold my holdings at 67
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 12, 2010, 02:37:53 PM
yaar someone tell abl that its undervalued and that it should go up  :down:

views on this script???

dear ABL is definitely undervalued. its PER is the cheapest in big 5 banks. it should trade higher than UBL.. but im not sure it will go up or not..its target price stands at 80 according to its expected earnings..
anyways i sold my holdings at 67

ive been trading my price down since it was at 65 (end feb) but i dont want to sell  :arrowhead:



do you think we're missing something?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 24, 2010, 03:15:49 PM
finally

abl looking like its on a break out if it close more then or equal to 58.75
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 24, 2010, 03:17:23 PM
lock  :shoaby:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 24, 2010, 05:36:07 PM
yaar someone tell abl that its undervalued and that it should go up  :down:

views on this script???
dear ABL is definitely undervalued. its PER is the cheapest in big 5 banks. it should trade higher than UBL.. but im not sure it will go up or not..its target price stands at 80 according to its expected earnings..
anyways i sold my holdings at 67

FYI

i did some research and found that there is one major negative sitting against ABL, which might be the cause of it not catching up to the other big 5 and that i think is its exposure to MLCFs TFC where abl has a total exposure of Rs 3 Bln  :busted_blue:

even then i am still bullish on this script...
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 06, 2010, 09:32:34 AM
Bank: ALLIED BANK LIMITED - Financial Statement Analysis Financial Year 2004 - Financial Year 2009
OVERVIEW (April 05 2010): COMPANY PROFILE:Established in Lahore in 1942, Allied Bank Limited is one of the largest banks operating in Pakistan with 779 branches located in almost 300 cities and towns. The Bank offers a full range of retail, commercial and corporate banking services with a focus on service delivery through technology.

Additionally, it also provides general banking services to agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout Pakistan. The Bank's fundamental strengths lie in its strong lending capability, as well as providing a variety of financial services, which has allowed ABL to diversify and enhance its deposit base.

The bank also conducts international operations in UK whereby it caters to the needs of the Bank's domestic corporate and other customers in financing import and export transactions. Here, ABL's products include foreign letters of credit, guarantees, remittances, acceptances and collections. The long term credit rating of the Bank as assigned by PACRA is AA and short term rating is A1+. Further ABL is the holding company of ABL Asset Management Company Limited.

INDUTRY REVIEW C YEAR 2009

During the period under review Banking Sector has shown signals of improvement and growth. The total asset base of the sector has increased from Rs 5,627 billion in CY08 to Rs 6,529 billion by the end of quarter December 09. The net investments of the sector have also shown improvement. They stood at Rs 1,753 billion on the quarter ended December 09, from levels of Rs 1,080 billion. Even the deposit base of the sector has shown improvement. They have increased from levels of Rs 4,217 billion in CY08 to Rs 4,787 billion in CY09.

============================================================================
TABLE 1.1: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM
============================================================================
                                                            (Billion Rupees)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            CY04   CY05   CY06   CY07   CY08  Sep-09  Dec-09
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Assets               3,043  3,650  4,353  5,172  5,627   6,105   6,529
Investments (net)            679    800    833  1,276  1,080   1,593   1,753
Advances (net)             1,574  1,991  2,428  2,688  3,183   3,119   3,248
Deposits                   2,393  2,832  3,255  3,854  4,217   4,483   4,787
Equity                       202    292    402    544    563     641     662
Profit Before Tax (PBT)       52     94    124    107     63      70      91
Profit After Tax (PAT)        35     63     84     73     43      42      54
Provisioning Charge           11     19     22     60    106      64      85
Non-Performing Loans         200    177    177    218    359     422     432
Non-Performing Loans (net)    59     41     39     30    109     128     125
============================================================================

Another major change that has been identified in the overall banking sector of Pakistan is change in the asset structure of the system. There has been a decline in the proportion of advances by the sector but a slight increase in the investments over the years. The private sector's low demand for bank credit has been reinforced by bank's risk aversion due to heightened credit risk. In this scenario the public sector has emerged as a major consumer of bank credit.

2009 was an extraordinary year for the global economy and the financial markets. Impact of the financial crisis was reflected in the performance of the real economy. Although Pakistan did not have a direct impact of the global financial crisis, but law and order, slow economic growth and lack of political stability had a lot of stress on many industries and in turn the financial sector. Industry wide NPLS were on the rise. The NPLs have increased from Rs 109 billion in CY08 to Rs 125 billion by the quarter ended December 09.The reason for this growth has been the increase in the loans classified under the loss category which required the full provisioning coverage, and so banks set aside relatively higher amount of provisions.

During the year under review, SBP changed the policy discount rate thrice; it reduced it by 100 bps each time- in April 2009, August 2009 and by 50 bps in November 2009.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF ABL:

During the year ended FY09, the profitability of Allied Bank Limited has improved. The bank posted a profit after tax of Rs 7,122 million as compared to Rs 4,157 of FY08, showing a growth of 71%. This improvement in the profits of the bank also translated into the improvement in the ROA and ROE of ABL. The ROA in FY09 rose to 1.81% as compared t0 1.21% of FY08. Also the ROE increased tremendously by 43.86% in FY09 to reach 30.5% as compared to 21.2% in FY08.

The net interest income of the bank increased by 40.6% to Rs 18,700 million in FY09 as compared to Rs 13,298 million in FY08. The non interest income also increased by 21.7% in FY09 to reach a level of Rs 5,958 million. The gross income to expense ratio has improved to 2.57 times during the year under review from 2.04 times in FY08. The markup earned on loans has increased from Rs 21,942 million in FY08 to Rs 30,142 million in FY09, whereas that earned on investments has also increased from Rs 6,618 million in FY08 to Rs 8,624 million in FY09. On the non interest income side, the income from fee, commission and brokerage has increased from Rs 2,307 million in FY08 to Rs 2,708 million in FY09. The interest income expensed by the bank has also increased mainly on deposits and call money borrowing. The overall interest income expensed has increased from Rs 17,272 million in FY08 to Rs 22,421 million in FY09. The major interest expense is that incurred in deposits which have increased from Rs 13,978 million in FY08, to Rs 17,946 million in FY09. Also the interest expensed in call money borrowings has increased from Rs 790 million in FY08 to Rs 1,158 million in FY09 showing an increase of 47%.

The net interest income of the bank increased mainly due to the growth in average earning assets and improvement in deposit mix towards low cost core deposits.

The asset base of ABL has increased. The total assets of the company have increased to Rs 418,374 million in FY09 as compared to Rs 366,696 million in FY08. There has been an increase in the gross advances by the bank. The gross advances have increased from Rs 223,640 million to Rs 249,987 million in FY09. The loans in Pakistan have increased from Rs 215,733 million in FY08 to Rs 243,166 million in FY09. The net investments in finance leases in Pakistan have also increased from Rs 768 million in FY08 to Rs 847 million in FY09. Even the gross investments of the bank have increased. In commercial and retail banking steps were taken to enhance focus on SME's, commercial and agricultural sectors with a view to diversify and increase its share in total loan book of the Bank. A team of well experienced agricultural credit officers were hired to further penetrate into the agricultural sector.

Another major component of the assets of the bank is the investments. The gross investments by the bank have increased from levels of Rs 84,602 million in FY08 to Rs 96,975 million in FY09. The investments on an average basis grew by 12.4%compared to 2008. Bank decided to revisit its investment portfolio with a view to rationalize exposure in certain segments with the intention to deploy resources into other profitable avenues. In this regard the exposure in open end mutual funds has been reduced from Rs 12,761 million (14.7% of total investments) in FY08 to Rs 4,348 million (4.6% of total investments) in FY09. The exposure in TFCs has increased by 98.4% to Rs 36,312 million (38.1% of total investments) inFY09 compared to Rs 18,302 million (21.1% of total investments) FY08.This was mainly due to reclassification of Bank's existing lending exposure as an outcome to adjust the circular debt. The Bank's Sukuk Portfolio includes exposure of Rs 3,190 million to Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited.

A major concern on ABL's balance sheet has been the increase in the Non Performing Loans. The loans have increased to Rs 16,281million FY09 as against Rs 13,772 million FY08, thus showing a net increase of Rs 2,509 million. The infection ratio of 6.5% in FY09 was slightly above 6.2% of the previous year; whereas coverage ratio remained at previous year's level of 77%. The bank has accounted for a provision of Rs 3,163 million against NPLs during the year under review. No benefit of FSV has been taken while determining the provision against NPLs as allowed under BSD Circular No. 10 of 2009 dated October 20, 2009.

The deposit base of the bank has also increased. The deposits of the bank have increased from Rs 297,475 million in FY08 to Rs 328,875 million in FY09. During the year stable and low cost deposits remained the major focus of the business strategy. In order to accomplish the desired goal, new branches and existing branches are being built or renovated to improve the ambience. Service standards are being improved. Services like internet banking and online transfers are being launched to attract additional deposits. The bank has been able to restrict the cost of deposits to 6.1% in FY09 as against 5.1% during FY08.

The debt ratios of the bank have declined, indicating increasing equity portion of the bank's assets. Generally, this has been the trend in the entire banking industry perhaps due to higher interest rates resulting in higher cost of borrowings and the MCR requirements as proposed by the State Bank. The equity of the bank has increased from Rs 344349 million in FY08 to Rs 388414 million in Fy09. The debt to asset ratio has declined from 0.98 in FY04 to 0.93 in FY09. The debt to equity ratio has declined from 41.82 in FY04 to 12.96 in FY09. Also the deposits times' capital has decreased from 37.91 in FY04 to 10.98 in FY09.

The liquidity position of the bank looks favorable. The ratio of earning assets to assets of the bank has remained almost consistent around 85%. The ratio of advances to deposits has increased from levels of 41% in FY 04 to 64% in FY07 to 72% in FY09. The yield on earning assets has improved. The yield has increased from 5% in FY04 to 11% in FY09. The reason for these increases has been an increase in the interest income earned on advances, investments and lending to the financial institutions.

The solvency ratios of the bank have persistently shown an upward trend throughout 2004-2009. This indicates bright prospects of long-term sustainability of the bank. The solvency ratios of the bank for the last five years have been maintained in the vicinity of each other. The increasing equity portion of the bank explains this. This may be regarded as a move against the rise in deposits rates and a decrease in the banking spread of the banking sector. This healthy trend in solvency may be predicted to continue in the future.

During FY09the bank gave a dividend of Rs 4/ share on cash basis and proposed 1 bonus issue per share as compared to Rs 2.5/ share in Fy08 along with 1 bonus issue per share. The payout ratio has however declined from 66% in FY07 to 54% in FY08 to 50% inFY09. The EPS of the share has increased to RS 10.02 in FY09 as compared to Rs 5.85/ share in FY08. The following graph depicts the trend related to DPS and EPS of ABL

During the FY09 the price of ABL'stock has shown a fluctuating trend. The P/E ratio declined in FY08 to 4.9 from level of 17.2 in FY07. However it has improved to 5.9 in Fy09. The market value to book value ratio has also been declining. The ratio declined from 3.09 in FY07 to 1.01 in FY09.

A comparison of the stock price and the KSE 100 Index for the year FY09 for the stock shows that the price has moved in almost the same fashion as the index. The highest price reached by the stock was Rs 66.3 and the lowest price was Rs 19.85 during FY09.

COMPARISON WITH THE TOP PLAYERS

The banking sector is dominated by National Bank Limited, Allied Bank Limited, Habib Bank Limited, United Bank Limited and Muslim Commercial Bank. The following graph indicates the trend of growth of deposits for the players.

As can be witnessed from the above graph that the deposit growth rate has been fluctuating over the last 5 years. A major decline was seen in the growth of deposits for ABL in 2008, when it fell from 28% to 13%. The reason cited for this slowdown was the slow growth of M2

The advance growth rate for the top players has shown a similar trend, all the fluctuations for all the banks have been witnessed in the same direction. As can be observed ABL's performance in terms of advances growth rate has been better from the top players during the last 5 years. The advances of ABL grew by 11% in FY09 as compared to 5.58% of NBP and -4% of UBL and MCB each during the year under review.

Another major trend seen in the banking sector has been the growth in profits after tax for the top players. It can be clearly seen that the growth in PAT of ABL has been much above the other top players. During FY09 there was a growth of 71% in ABL's PAT, as compared to 14% of UBL and 2% of MCB.

Another major comparison between ABL and the other top players is that in the growth of the net interest income. Even in this area ABL has outperformed other major players. The growth in the net interest income is 41% in FY09 as compared to 18% of UBL, 16% of MCB and 3% of NBP.

In case of the non interest income, the growth for ABL has been in line with that of its peer except for NBP whose growth though has fluctuated but still is above the other players in the market. The growth in non interest income for ABL in FY09 is around 22%, as compared to 45% of NBP.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

The recent economic trends suggest the possibility of a modest recovery during 2010. The major impetus for growth is expected to come from the services sector, while LSM has also lately shown signs of recovery. The positive improvement in macroeconomic indicators, mainly inflation and contraction in external imbalances bodes well for the revival of economic activity. However, risks to these improvements remains as inflationary pressures have not completely abated, the commodity prices may spur again to unmanageable levels and foreign inflows (for instance from FoDP and other bilateral arrangements) may not materialize on time. Meanwhile, the severe energy shortages and the sensitive security situation remain a major threat to the potential output of the economy. The rising fiscal slippages, deficit of 1.5% of GDP for Q1-FY10 as compared to 1.1% in Q1-FY09 poses another challenge. A sizeable portion of it also relates to increasing expenditure on defense and security. The continuing pressure in the operation environment suggests that the challenges for the banking sector would persist in 2010. ABL, while remaining prudent under the circumstances would continue to emphasize on improving cost effective deposit mix, building risk weighted assets by ensuring quality and optimizing costs to pursue the strategy of maintaining steady growth.

==================================================================================================
ALLIED BANK LIMITED
==================================================================================================
                                  2004        2005        2006        2007        2008        2009
==================================================================================================
EARNINGS RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Return on Assets (%)              0.1%        1.8%        2.0%        1.4%        1.2%       1.81%
Return on Deposits (%}            0.1%        2.1%        2.4%        1.7%        1.5%        2.3%
Return on Equity (%)              8.0%       28.0%       30.0%       23.5%       21.2%       30.5%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASSETS QUALITY RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NPL to Advances                    26%         11%          7%          7%          6%          7%
Provisions to NPLs                 10%          3%          6%         24%         10%         19%
Non Performing Loans        15.383.000  12.699.000  10.479.000  11.355.000  13.772.000  16.281.000
NPLs Growth                          -        -17%        -17%          8%         21%         18%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET VALUE RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price to Earnings                 0.00       12.56        9.54       17.20        4.90         5.9
Market Value to Book Value        0.00        2.92        2.37        3.09        2.89        1.01
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEBT MANAGEMENT RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Debt to equity                   41.82       13.83       13.46       15.10       15.40       12.96

Deposit times capital            37.91       12.34       11.98       13.28       13.31       10.98
Debt to asset                     0.98        0.93        0.93        0.94        0.94        0.93
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earning assets to assets           84%         85%         84%         85%         85%         86%
Advance to deposit                 41%         59%         69%         64%         72%         72%
Yield on earning assets             5%          7%          9%          8%         10%         11%
Cost of funding earning assets      1%          1%          4%          4%          5%          6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOLVENCY RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Equity to assets (%)                2%          7%          7%          6%          6%          7%
Equity to deposits (%)            2.64        8.10        8.35        7.53        7.52       9.110
Earning assets to deposits (%)   95.17      101.91      100.99      102.58      104.66      109.54
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------C---------------
Dividend yield                       -       2.90%       2.70%       2.30%        8.0%       6.80%
Dividend cover                       -        2.76        2.18       1.402       3.214       2.505
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GROWTH RATES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Profits After Tax                    -           -         42%         -7%          2%         71%
Advances                             -         87%         30%         17%         26%         11%
Deposits                             -         28%         28%         28%         13%         11%
Investments                          -        -22%          5%         79%         -2%         15%
==================================================================================================
COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 07, 2010, 05:29:31 PM
finally

abl looking like its on a break out if it close more then or equal to 58.75

 :fingerscrossed1: :biggrin: :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 09, 2010, 03:55:46 PM
finally

abl looking like its on a break out if it close more then or equal to 58.75

 :fingerscrossed1: :biggrin: :fingerscrossed1:

target = 67-68
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sumbul on April 16, 2010, 12:03:46 PM
finally

abl looking like its on a break out if it close more then or equal to 58.75

 :fingerscrossed1: :biggrin: :fingerscrossed1:

target = 67-68

BUY TARGET 66-69  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 16, 2010, 03:42:58 PM
finally

abl looking like its on a break out if it close more then or equal to 58.75

 :fingerscrossed1: :biggrin: :fingerscrossed1:

target = 67-68

BUY TARGET 66-69  :biggthumpup:


 :biggrin:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 21, 2010, 01:55:57 PM
booked 25% to switch over to nrl and pso
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 23, 2010, 02:10:10 PM
inshallah expected EPS

JS=2.56
IGI=2.35


HOLD
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 26, 2010, 10:20:55 AM
eps 2.27
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 28, 2010, 04:38:06 PM
booked 25% to switch over to nrl and pso

also target as stated was achieved and booked total 75% of holding last 25% i am holding with a stop=63

:biggrin:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 28, 2010, 04:53:19 PM
booked 25% to switch over to nrl and pso

also target as stated was achieved and booked total 75% of holding last 25% i am holding with a stop=63

:biggrin:

 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on May 25, 2010, 09:41:41 AM
Bank: ALLIED BANK LIMITED - Analysis of Financial Statements Financial Year 2004 - 2001 Q 2010
OVERVIEW (May 24 2010): Allied Bank Limited was established in Lahore in 1942. It is one of the largest banks operating in Pakistan with a network of 779 branches located in almost 300 cities and towns.

The bank offers full range of retail, commercial and corporate banking services with a focus on service delivery through technology. Additionally, it provides general banking services to agricultural, industrial and individual customers across Pakistan. The bank's fundamental strength lies in its strong lending capability, as well as providing a variety of financial services, which has allowed ABL to diversify and enhance its deposit base.

The bank also conducts international operations in the UK whereby it caters to the needs of the bank's domestic corporate and other customers in financing import and export transactions. Here, ABL's products include foreign letters of credit, guarantees, remittances, acceptances and collections. The long-term credit rating of the bank as assigned by PACRA is AA and short-term rating is A1+. Further, the ABL is the holding company of ABL Asset Management Company Limited.

RECENT RESULTS OF 1Q10

During the 1Q10, the profit after tax grew by 22.72% as compared to 1Q09, to reach a level of Rs 1,777 million. The mark-up income grew by 6.9% over the corresponding period, due to higher average volume growth in earning assets. Also, the improvement in deposit mix contributed towards 5.9% reduction in mark-up expense, which declined to Rs 5,566 million during 1Q10 as compared to the same period in FY09. Non-mark-up income of ABL increased to Rs 1,571 million during 1Q10 as compared to Rs 1,210 million in the corresponding period of previous year, a growth of 29.8%. The increase was primarily led by higher fee income, dividend income and capital gains. The Operating Expenses increased to Rs 2,937 million during 1Q10 as compared to Rs 2,227 million corresponding period of last year.

During the quarter under review, the assets of the bank have declined from Rs 418,374 million to Rs 399,837 million. This has been due to the decline in advances from Rs 237,444 million in FY09 to Rs 227,033 million in 1Q10; also the lendings to the financial institutions have declined from December-09 levels of Rs 28,123 million to Rs 25,386 million in 1Q10. Within lendings to the financial institutions, a major decline was seen in the repurchase agreements from Rs 26,348 million in December FY09 to Rs 23,136 million in 1Q10. These are short-term lendings to various financial institutions against the government securities, carrying mark-up at rates, ranging between 9.73% and 12.20% (December 31, 2009: ranging between 11.75% and 12.40%) per annum and have to mature latest by April 30, 2010.

On the liabilities side, there has been a decline in borrowings from financial institutions, they have declined from Rs 39,819 million levels of FY09, to Rs 32,411 million in 1Q10. Also deposits have declined from December FY09 levels of Rs 328,875 million to Rs 317,742 million. The fixed deposits of the bank declined from Rs 98,426 million in December FY09 to Rs 93,807 million in 1Q10. The savings deposits have increased slightly from December 09 levels of Rs 85,275 million to Rs 87,685 million in 1Q10.

OUTLOOK FOR REMAINING QUARTERS OF FINANCIAL YEAR 2010

Higher inflation, liquidity crunch and inevitable rupee depreciation may pose pressure on the country's operating environment, unless flows from IMF and other multilateral agencies start pouring in and international oil prices come down. Under these circumstances tightening of monetary policy by the SBP in upcoming review started gaining weight. Hence the ABL, being cautious of the prevailing economic conditions would continue with its strategy of achieving steady growth by taking exposure in selected avenues following stringent risk management policies, proactive monitoring of the credit portfolio, focusing on further improving the deposit mix and optimising cost efficiencies.

INDUSTRY REVIEW CY09

During the period under review, banking sector has shown signals of improvement and growth. The total asset base of the sector has increased from Rs 5,627 billion in CY08 to Rs 6,529 billion by the end of quarter December 09. The net investments of the sector have also shown improvement. They stood at Rs 1,753 billion on the quarter ended December 09, from levels of Rs 1,080 billion. Even the deposit base of the sector has shown improvement. They have increased from levels of Rs 4,217 billion in CY08 to Rs 4,787 billion in CY09.

=================================================================================
Table 1.1: Highlights of the Banking System
=================================================================================
                                                                 (billion Rupees)
=================================================================================
                           CY04    CY05    CY06    CY07    CY08   Sep-09   Dec-09
=================================================================================
Total Assets               3,043   3,660   4,353   5,172   5,627   6,105    6,529
Investments (net)            679     800     833   1,276   1,080   1,593    1,753
Advances (net)             1,574   1,991   2,428   2,688   3,193   3,119    3,248
Deposits                   2,393   2,332   3,255   3,854   4,217   4,483    4,787
Equity                       202     292     202     544     563     641      662
Profit Before Tax (PBT)       52      94     124     107      63      70       91
Profit After Tax (PAT)        35      63      84      73      43      42       54
Provisioning charges          11      19      22      60     106      64       85
Non-Performing Loans         200     177     177     218     359     422      432
Non-Performing Loans (net)    59      41      39      30     109     128      125
=================================================================================

Another major change that has been identified in the overall banking sector of Pakistan is change in the asset structure of the system. There has been a decline in the proportion of advances by the sector but a slight increase in the investments over the years. The private sector's low demand for bank credit has been reinforced by bank's risk aversion due to heightened credit risk. In this scenario the public sector has emerged as a major consumer of bank credit.

The year of 2009 was an extraordinary year for the global economy and the financial markets. The impact of the financial crisis was reflected in the performance of the real economy. Although Pakistan did not have a direct impact of the global financial crisis, but law and order situation, slow economic growth and lack of political stability had a lot of stress on many industries and in turn, the financial sector. Industry-wide NPLs were on the rise.

The NPLs have increased from Rs 109 billion in CY08 to Rs 125 billion by the quarter ended December 09. The reason for this growth has been the increase in the loans classified under the loss category, which required a full provisioning coverage, and so the banks set aside relatively higher amount of provisions.

During the year under review, SBP changed the policy discount rate thrice; it reduced it by 100 bps each time - in April 2009, August 2009 and by 50 bps in November 2009.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

During the year ended FY09, the profitability of Allied Bank Limited has improved. The bank posted a profit after tax of Rs 7,122 million as compared to Rs 4,157 of FY08, showing a growth of 71%. This improvement in the profits of the bank also translated into the improvement in the ROA and ROE of ABL. The ROA in FY09 rose to 1.81% as compared t0 1.21% of FY08. Also the ROE increased tremendously by 43.86% in FY09 to reach 30.5% as compared to 21.2% in FY08.

The net interest income of the bank increased by 40.6% to Rs 18,700 million in FY09 as compared to Rs 13,298 million in FY08. The non-interest income also increased by 21.7% in FY09 to reach a level of Rs 5,958 million. The gross income to expense ratio has improved to 2.57 times during the year under review from 2.04 times in FY08.

The mark-up earned on loans has increased from Rs 21,942 million in FY08 to Rs 30,142 million in FY09 whereas that earned on investments has also increased from Rs 6,618 million in FY08 to Rs 8,624 million in FY09. On the non-interest income side, the income from fee, commission and brokerage has increased from Rs 2,307 million in FY08 to Rs 2,708 million in FY09. The interest income expensed by the bank has also increased mainly on deposits and call money borrowing.

The overall interest income expensed has increased from Rs 17,272 million in FY08 to Rs 22,421 million in FY09. The major interest expense is that incurred in deposits which have increased from Rs 13,978 million in FY08, to Rs 17,946 million in FY09. Also the interest expensed in call money borrowings has increased from Rs 790 million in FY08 to Rs 1,158 million in FY09 showing an increase of 47%.

The net interest income of the bank increased mainly due to the growth in average earning assets and improvement in deposit mix towards low cost core deposits. The asset base of ABL has increased. The total assets of the company have increased to Rs 418,374 million in FY09 as compared to Rs 366,696 million in FY08. There has been an increase in the gross advances by the bank. The gross advances have increased from Rs 223,640 million to Rs 249,987 million in FY09. The loans in Pakistan have increased from Rs 215,733 million in FY08 to Rs 243,166 million in FY09.

The net investments in finance leases in Pakistan have also increased from Rs 768 million in FY08 to Rs 847 million in FY09. Even the gross investments of the bank have increased. In commercial and retail banking steps were taken to enhance focus on SMEs, commercial and agricultural sectors with a view to diversify and increase its share in total loan book of the Bank. A team of well-experienced agricultural credit officers was hired to further penetrate into the agriculture sector.

Another major component of the assets of the bank is the investments. The gross investments by the bank have increased from levels of Rs 84,602 million in FY08 to Rs 96,975 million in FY09. The investments on an average basis grew by 12.4%compared to 2008. Bank decided to revisit its investment portfolio with a view to rationalise exposure in certain segments with the intention to deploy resources into other profitable avenues. In this regard the exposure in open-end mutual funds has been reduced from Rs 12,761 million (14.7% of total investments) in FY08 to Rs 4,348 million (4.6% of total investments) in FY09. The exposure in TFCs has increased by 98.4% to Rs 36,312 million (38.1% of total investments) inFY09 compared to Rs 18,302 million (21.1% of total investments) FY08.This was mainly due to reclassification of bank's existing lending exposure as an outcome to adjust the circular debt. The bank's Sukuk portfolio includes exposure of Rs 3,190 million to Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited.

A major concern on ABL's balance sheet has been the increase in the non-performing loans. The loans have increased to Rs 16,281 million in FY09 as against Rs 13,772 million in FY08, thus showing a net increase of Rs 2,509 million. The infection ratio of 6.5% in FY09 was slightly above 6.2% of the previous year, whereas coverage ratio remained at previous year's level of 77%. The bank has accounted for a provision of Rs 3,163 million against NPLs during the year under review. No benefit of FSV has been taken while determining the provision against NPLs as allowed under BSD Circular No 10 of 2009 dated October 20, 2009.

The deposit base of the bank has also increased. Its deposits have increased from Rs 297,475 million in FY08 to Rs 328,875 million in FY09. During the year, stable and low cost deposits remained the major focus of the business strategy. In order to accomplish the desired goal, new branches and existing branches are being built or renovated to improve the ambience. Service standards are being improved. Services like internet banking and online transfers are being launched to attract the additional deposits. The bank has been able to restrict the cost of deposits to 6.1% in FY09 as against 5.1% during FY08.

The debt ratios of the bank have declined, indicating increasing equity portion of the bank's assets. Generally, this has been the trend in the entire banking industry perhaps due to higher interest rates resulting in higher cost of borrowings and the MCR requirements as proposed by the State Bank. The equity of the bank has increased from Rs 344349 million in FY08 to Rs 388414 million in Fy09. The debt to asset ratio has declined from 0.98 in FY04 to 0.93 in FY09. The debt to equity ratio has declined from 41.82 in FY04 to 12.96 in FY09. Also the deposits times' capital has decreased from 37.91 in FY04 to 10.98 in FY09.

The liquidity position of the bank looks favourable. The ratio of earning assets to assets of the bank has remained almost consistent around 85%. The ratio of advances to deposits has increased from levels of 41% in FY 04 to 64% in FY07 to 72% in FY09. The yield on earning assets has improved. The yield has increased from 5% in FY04 to 11% in FY09. The reason for these increases has been an increase in the interest income earned on advances, investments and lending to the financial institutions.

The solvency ratios have persistently shown an upward trend throughout 2004-2009. This indicates bright prospects of long-term sustainability of the bank. The solvency ratios of the bank for the last five years have been maintained in the vicinity of each other. The increasing equity portion of the bank explains this. This may be regarded as a move against the rise in deposits rates and a decrease in the banking spread of the banking sector. This healthy trend in solvency may be predicted to continue in the future.

During FY09the bank gave a dividend of Rs 4/share on cash basis and proposed 1 bonus issue per share as compared to Rs 2.5/share in FY08 along with 1 bonus issue per share. The payout ratio has however declined from 66% in FY07 to 54% in FY08 to 50% inFY09. The EPS of the share has increased to Rs 10.02 in FY09 as compared to Rs 5.85/share in FY08. The following graph depicts the trend related to DPS and EPS of ABL

During FY09 the price of ABL's stock has shown a fluctuating trend. The P/E ratio declined in FY08 to 4.9 from level of 17.2 in FY07. However it has improved to 5.9 in FY09. The market value to book value ratio has also been declining. The ratio declined from 3.09 in FY07 to 1.01 in FY09.

A comparison of the stock price and the KSE 100 Index for the year FY09 for the stock shows that the price has moved in almost the same fashion as the index. The highest price reached by the stock was Rs 66.3 and the lowest price was Rs 19.85 during FY09.

COMPARISON WITH THE TOP PLAYERS

The banking sector is dominated by National Bank Limited, Allied Bank Limited, Habib Bank Limited, United Bank Limited and MCB Bank Limited. The graph indicates the trend of growth of deposits for the players.

As can be witnessed from the above graph that the deposit growth rate has been fluctuating over the last 5 years. A major decline was seen in the growth of deposits for ABL in 2008, when it fell from 28% to 13%. The reason cited for this slowdown was the slow growth of M2

The advance growth rate for the top players has shown a similar trend, all the fluctuations for all the banks have been witnessed in the same direction. As can be observed ABL's performance in terms of advances growth rate has been better from the top players during the last 5 years. The advances of ABL grew by 11% in FY09 as compared to 5.58% of NBP and -4% of UBL and MCB each during the year under review.

Another major trend seen in the banking sector has been the growth in profits after tax for the top players. It can be clearly seen that the growth in PAT of ABL has been much above the other top players. During FY09 there was a growth of 71% in ABL's PAT, as compared to 14% of UBL and 2% of MCB.

Another major comparison between ABL and the other top players is that in the growth of the net interest income. Even in this area ABL has outperformed other major players. The growth in the net interest income is 41% in FY09 as compared to 18% of UBL, 16% of MCB and 3% of NBP.

In case of the non-interest income, the growth for ABL has been in line with that of its peer except for NBP whose growth though has fluctuated but still is above the other players in the market. The growth in non-interest income for ABL in FY09 is around 22%, as compared to 45% of NBP.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

The recent economic trends suggest the possibility of a modest recovery during 2010. The major impetus for growth is expected to come from the services sector, while LSM has also lately shown signs of recovery. The positive improvement in macroeconomic indicators, mainly inflation and contraction in external imbalances bodes well for the revival of economic activity. However, risks to these improvements remain as inflationary pressures have not completely abated, the commodity prices may spur again to unmanageable levels and foreign inflows (for instance from Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) and other bilateral arrangements) may not materialise on time. Meanwhile, the severe energy shortages and the sensitive security situation remain a major threat to the potential output of the economy. The rising fiscal slippages, deficit of 1.5% of GDP for 1Q10 as compared to 1.1% in 1Q09 poses another challenge. A sizeable portion of it also relates to increasing expenditure on defence and security. The continuing pressure in the operation environment suggests that the challenges for the banking sector would persist in 2010. ABL, while remaining prudent under the circumstances would continue to emphasise on improving cost effective deposit mix, building risk weighted assets by ensuring quality and optimising costs to pursue the strategy of maintaining steady growth.

========================================================================================================
ALLIED BANK LIMITED
========================================================================================================
                                   2004         2005         2006         2007         2008         2009
========================================================================================================
EARNINGS RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Return on Assets (%)              0.10%        1.80%        2.00%        1.40%        1.20%        1.81%
Return on Deposits (%)            0.10%        2.10%        2.40%        1.70%        1.50%        2.30%
Return on Equity (%)              8.00%       28.00%       30.00%       23.50%       21.20%       30.50%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASSETS QUALITY RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NPL to Advances                     26%          11%           7%           7%           6%           7%
Provisions to NPLs                  10%           3%           6%          24%          10%          19%
Non Performing Loans         15,383,000   12,699,000   10,479,000   11,355,000   13,772,000   16,281,000
NPLS Growth                          -          -17%         -17%           8%          21%          18%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET VALUE RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price to Earnings                     0        12.56         9.54         17.2          4.9          5.9
Market Value to Book Value            0         2.92         2.37         3.09         2.89         1.01
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEBT MANAGEMENT RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Debt to equity                    41.82        13.83        13.46         15.1         15.4        12.96
Deposit times capital             37.91        12.34        11.98        13.28        13.31        10.98
Debt to asset                      0.98         0.93         0.93         0.94         0.94         0.93
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earning assets to assets            84%          85%          84%          85%          85%          86%
Advance to deposit                  41%          59%          69%          64%          72%          72%
Yield on earning assets              5%           7%           9%           8%          10%          11%
Cost of funding earning asset        1%           1%           4%           4%           5%           6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOLVENCY RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Equity to assets (%)                 2%           7%           7%           6%           6%           7%
Equity to deposits (%)             2.64          8.1         8.35         7.53         7.52         9.11
Earning assets to deposits (%     95.17       101.91       100.99       102.58       104.68       109.54
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dividend yield                       -         2.90%        2.70%        2.30%        8.00%        6.80%
Dividend cover                       -          2.76         2.18       1 402         3.214        2.505
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GROWTH RATES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Profits After Tax                    -            -           42%          -7%           2%          71%
Advances                             -           87%          30%          17%          26%          11%
Deposits                             -           28%          28%          28%          13%          11%
Investments                          -          -22%           5%          79%          -2%          15%
========================================================================================================
COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: M&M on May 31, 2010, 11:39:44 AM
(http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/2158/70691294.jpg)
(http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/1/11852368.jpg)
(http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/9418/14580689.jpg)
(http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/8932/16023825.jpg)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on July 26, 2010, 02:17:38 PM
personally expecting an EPS of about Rs 1.83 for the second quarter
comments/agree/disagree?

does anyone have estimates from a brokerage house for the EPS?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Papa Jee on July 26, 2010, 10:49:12 PM
personally expecting an EPS of about Rs 1.83 for the second quarter
comments/agree/disagree?

does anyone have estimates from a brokerage house for the EPS?

How did you ame to 1.83
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on July 27, 2010, 01:26:54 PM
magic  :arrowhead: LOL

mostly ROA based
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on August 09, 2010, 12:19:24 PM
personally expecting an EPS of about Rs 1.83 for the second quarter
comments/agree/disagree?

does anyone have estimates from a brokerage house for the EPS?

How did you ame to 1.83

do you have a view on this share for the near term/result?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 11, 2010, 12:30:22 PM
ABL: 1HCY10 Result Preview

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY10 result tomorrow. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR3.60bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR4.60) in 1HCY10 against NPAT of PkR3.05bn (EPS: PkR3.90) in 1HCY09, growth of 18%YoY.  Alongside the result, we expect ABL to announce an interim cash payout of PkR2/share.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 11, 2010, 03:45:58 PM
ABL: 1H2010 EPS expected at Rs4.81, up 23%YoY

Allied Bank Limited’s (ABL) board meeting is
scheduled for Aug 12, to announce its 1H2010
financial results. We expect ABL to register earnings
of Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs4.81) versus earnings of
Rs3.06bn (EPS Rs3.91) in the same period last year,
an increase of 23%YoY. The growth is expected to
come from increased Net Interest Income (NII), rising
on higher average advances and improved NIM’s in the
period. Moreover, provisions for NPLs are expected to dip
12%YoY in 1H2010, aiding profit growth. In 2Q2010 alone,
we estimate the bank to register profits of Rs2.0bn (EPS
Rs2.54) – an increase of 12%QoQ. Along with the result, we
could see the bank announcing a cash payout of Rs2/share.
The stock currently trades at a 2010E PBV and PE of 1.2x
and 5.0x respectively and we currently recommend a ‘Buy’
scrip on the scrip.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on August 12, 2010, 01:57:16 PM
HY EPS 4.63 + 20% cash  :shoaby:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 27, 2010, 11:52:33 AM
ABL: Target Price Revision

We downward revise our target price for ABL to PkR60/share (upside: 15%) but retain an Accumulate rating on the scrip. Revision in target price has come on the back of 1) higher discounting factor post 50bps hike in the Discount Rate and 2) higher credit cost estimates in the aftermath of recent flash floods. In this regard, while 1HCY10 performance was outstanding (profits up 20%YoY), risks remain in the form of second-round of asset quality pressures and potential slowdown in deposit growth. ABL has shed 6.4% over the last month, in traction with a forecasted slower economic growth environment. Despite the scrip now trading at attractive valuations (CY10F P/B: 1.09x, PER: 5.62x, dividend yield: 7.6%), we note that a lack of rerating triggers may suppress near-term price performance. However, we do remain positive on ABL from a medium-term investment horizon based on our preference for the bigger banks (diversified earnings streams, strong capital bases).

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on September 01, 2010, 05:28:00 PM
Supported by contained interest expense along with reduction in NPL charge, Allied Bank
Limited (ABL) posted 18% YoY growth in net earnings during 1HCY10. Total net profit during the
period stood at PKR3.6bn (EPS: PKR4.63) compared to PKR3.1bn (EPS: PKR3.91) in the same
period last year. On QoQ basis, profitability during 2QCY10 witnessed 4% rise with a PAT of
PKR1.8bn (EPS: PKR2.36), mainly driven by 4% QoQ decline in operating expenses. We expect
ABL to depict relatively stable earnings during 2HCY10 as it remains considerably immune to
possible further accretion in bad loans from agri?segment given it has a minimal exposure to it
(0.8% share of agri financing in total advances in CY09). For CY10, our earnings forecast stands
at PKR8.3bn (EPS: PKR10.54). At yesterday’s closing of PKR51.1/share, the scrip provides upside
potential of 55% to our Dec?2010 PT of PKR79/share and is trading at CY10E P/E and P/BV of
4.8x and 1.1x respectively. BUY!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on September 01, 2010, 06:05:38 PM
Farzooq

could you please share the source of your last two analyst report posts please
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on September 01, 2010, 06:23:58 PM
Farzooq

could you please share the source of your last two analyst report posts please

Elixir securities
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on September 01, 2010, 07:04:28 PM
thanks
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on September 01, 2010, 08:44:21 PM
thanks

Isnt it attractive round 50 ?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on September 02, 2010, 01:14:47 PM
it would seem so - but, personally, i have put off my buying and am maintaining a status quo on my portfolio  :skeptic:
as i am still not happy with the strength of the index. and as you know when the index tanks it takes the good with it  >:(
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on September 17, 2010, 11:50:19 AM

ABL: Company update / ‘Buy’ maintained
JSGCL

We review Allied Bank Limited (ABL) post release of
its 1H2010 financials where the company posted an
impressive earnings growth of 18%YoY to post
profits of Rs3.6bn (EPS Rs4.63). The growth was
primarily driven by increasing Net Interest Income
(NII) towed by higher earning assets. However, Non
Interest Income declined by 22%YoY as the bank
recorded lower fee income and returns from dealing in foreign
currencies. Post this result; we adjust our NPL estimates for
2H2010, which has led us to revise our earning estimates for
2010-11 downward by 2-4%. We now expect the bank to
register earnings of Rs10.1 and Rs11.45 per share in 2010
and 2011, respectively. The scrip currently trades at a 2010E
PBV and PE of 1.2x and 5.2x respectively, and maintain our
‘Buy’ call on the scrip with a target price of Rs65.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 11, 2010, 11:37:47 AM
bm 18th oct
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 14, 2010, 12:25:56 PM
ABL: EPS of Rs7.23 expected in 9M, up 13% YoY
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is set to announce its 9M2010
results on Oct 18, 2010, and we expect it to declare earnings
of Rs5.7bn (EPS Rs7.23) – an increase of 13% YoY. We do
not expect any payout with the announcement.

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 15, 2010, 01:35:39 PM
Allied Bank Limited – 9MCY10 Earnings Preview

Net earnings to rise by 5% QoQ; 11% YoY: ABL’s net earnings are expected to grow by 5%
QoQ during 3QCY10, taking cumulative net profit for 9MCY10 to PKR5.6bn (EPS: PKR7.11), up
11% YoY.
Contained cost of funds to drive top?line growth: The bank’s strategy of controlling high cost
deposits boded well in terms of containing interest expense during 1HCY10. We believe the
trend will continue in 3QCY10 as well and will support the top?line growth, with pre?provisions
profit expected to grow by 10% QoQ and 20% YoY.
6% YoY likely decline in provisions and write?offs to further support bottom?line: Though,
total provisioning is expected to rise by 17% QoQ during 3QCY10 due to base effect (ABL
booked a reversal of PKR280mn for provisioning against lending to FIs during 2QCY10); it is
estimated to decline by 6% during 9MCY10.
Non?funded income estimated to plunge by 21% YoY: Lower fee, commission income and
dividends coupled with shrinkage in FX income (due to lesser volatility in PKR/USD) are
expected to decrease non?funded income by 21% YoY during the 9?month period.
Full year earnings estimates stand at PKR8.2bn; BUY maintained: Our full year earnings
forecast for ABL stands at PKR8.2bn (EPS: PKR10.54), up by 16% from CY09. At recent closing
of PKR53.5/share, the scrip is trading at CY10F P/E and P/BV of 5.1x and 1.2x respectively and
offers upside potential of 54% to our rolled over Jun?2011 PT of PKR83/share. BUY!

Elixir
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Dhillon on October 18, 2010, 12:36:07 PM
EPS 7.48
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on November 03, 2010, 07:19:20 PM
Allied Bank Limited – Liability Management supported bottom line in 9MCY10

21% QoQ jump in net earnings led to 17% YoY rise in PAT in 9MCY10: Allied Bank Limited
(ABL) posted net earnings of PKR2.2bn (EPS: PKR2.85) during 3QCY10, up 21% QoQ (highest
QoQ growth during CY10). This took 9MCY10 net profit up 17% YoY to PKR5.8bn (EPS:
PKR7.48).
Decline in interest expense pushed NII up by 21% YoY: Maintaining CASA’s share in total
deposit mix at 72% in Sept?10 compared to 69% in Dec?09, and attrition in high cost fixed term
and FIs deposits by PKR11bn YTD, lowered interest expense by 1% YoY during 9MCY10 and
resulted in 21% YoY surge in net interest income (NII).
Provisions went up 18% QoQ; but down 6% YoY: NPL charge remained on the high side in
3QCY10, up by 18% QoQ, owing to increase in NPLs and absence of reversals (during 2QCY10
the bank booked PKR280mn reversal). However, during 9MCY10, the reversal resulted in 6%
YoY decline in cumulative provisioning and write?offs, as NPLs’ expense was up 10% YoY.
Non?interest income & Opex ? A drag to the bottom line: During 9MCY10, bank’s non?interest
income declined by 22% YoY due to decrease in fee, commission & brokerage income and
dividends, along with reduction in FX income. Opex, on the other hand, rose by 17% YoY.
BUY at current levels: We have tweaked full year CY10 earnings forecast for ABL post 9MCY10
results, down 2% from earlier EPS estimates of PKR10.54, Jun?2011 PT also revised down by
4% to PKR80/share. At recent closing, the scrip provides upside potential of 44% to revised PT
and is trading at a CY11E P/E and P/BV of 4.7x and 1.0x respectively. BUY!

Elixir
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on November 04, 2010, 09:40:06 PM
Higher NIM driving bottom-line
Event
? Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its financial results for 9MCY10 and
posted profit after tax of PKR5.88bn (EPS PKR7.53), up 17% YoY from
PKR5.02bn (EPS PKR6.43) in 9MCY09.
Impact
? 11% growth in operating profits: Though non-interest income declined by 21%
YoY, ABL’s operating income grew by 11% YoY to PKR20.4bn primarily driven
by higher net interest income.
? Net interest income growth driven by NIM expansion: Net interest income
grew by 21% YoY to PKR16.5bn primarily due to expansion in bank’s net
interest margin, which increased by 48bps to 6.2% in 9MCY10. Net interest
margin increased on back of higher yields on loans and advances owing to rising
interest rates while bank’s funding cost remained in check due to gradual
increase in CASA (72.1% in 9MCY10 from 69.6% in CY09) driven by ample
banking system liquidity (on back of government borrowing from State Bank).
? 6% decline in provision charges but asset quality could come under
stress: Provision charges declined by 6% YoY to PKR3.1bn on back of
abatement in incremental NPL formation, especially those against corporate
loans and relaxations in provision/classification requirements allowed by the
regulator. Going forward, ABL might witness deterioration in advances quality
owing to direct and indirect impact of floods on economy. Moreover, the bank
may also have to make provisions on its large bond portfolio which has exposure
to trouble-ridden companies like Maple Leaf Cement and Orix leasing.
? Non-interest income declined owing to lower trading income and absence
of investment banking fee: Non-interest income declined by 21% YoY to
PKR3.8bn primarily due to decline in trading and forex income. Despite ABL’s
increasing share in remittances and foreign trade business, fee income declined
by 12% YoY owing to absence of investment banking fee earned last year.
Trading income shrunk by 20% YoY to PKR1.5bn owing to lackluster stock
market performance (KSE100 index gained only 6% during 9MCY10 against
64% appreciation during 9MCY09).
? Operating expenses grew by 11% YoY: Operating expenses grew by 11%
YoY to PKR8.4bn during 9MCY10, primarily due to one off impact of Voluntary
Retirement Scheme offered by the bank during 1QCY10.
Earnings Revision
? No change
Price catalyst
? Dec-10 price target: PKR63.0 based on a two stage Gordon growth model.
? Catalyst: News flow in 4QCY10 or 1QCY11 related to incremental NPLs, which may
see and uptick due to direct and indirect impact of floods on the economy.
Action and recommendation
? At current prices, ABL trades at 14% discount to our target price. Outperform!

FS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on December 03, 2010, 11:38:19 AM
ABL - Strong earnings growth; ROE improvement - BUY! (TP: PKR 71)

Highest YTD return within our coverage cluster
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is one of our top picks in the banking sector. During YTD CY10, inline with broad market index, ABL’s stock price has rallied 22% and outperformed the KSE100 index & IGI coverage universe by 2% and 12% respectively in terms of price performance. The stock is increasingly attractive on risk-reward basis and offers 3yr earnings growth CAGR of 15% and ROE of 25%. Hence, notwithstanding the recent price appreciation, we continue to favor ABL with a Dec’11 target price of PKR 71 per share yielding an upside of 15% from current levels.

Policy rate hikes will widen margins
The recent uptick in SBP’s policy rate to 14% will strongly correlate with widening of banking sector net interest margins. This is mainly due to widening of lending rates while deposit costs remain stable on improving CASA deposits mix. In 9M CY10, ABL’s net interest income grew by 21% YoY to PKR 16.5bn on the back of 40bps expansion in NIMs to 6.2% and 11% growth in earning assets.  Meanwhile, on the funding side, a shift in deposit mix towards demand deposits (CASA: 72%), with time deposits being re-priced at lower rates, has curtailed deposit costs to the tune of 50bps. Going forward in CY11, we expect a further 30bps jump in ABL’s NIM to 6.5% while higher rates imply a tighter credit environment and modest asset growth.

Valuation - Attractive on risk-reward
At current market price, the stock is trading at 4.9x CY11E EPS and 1.2x adjusted book value. Our target price of PKR 71 per share yields an upside of 15% along with a dividend yield of 7.3% in a stock that appears to have already discounted downside risks, and offers favorable risk-reward opportunity for investors.

IGI Research

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SK on December 06, 2010, 12:17:35 PM
thinking to buy ABL looking very attractive.
any suggestion there?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: M&M on December 06, 2010, 12:40:11 PM
thinking to buy ABL looking very attractive.
any suggestion there?
buy 'BAFL' on breakout above 10.20 ..
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SK on December 06, 2010, 12:44:16 PM
thinking to buy ABL looking very attractive.
any suggestion there?
buy 'BAFL' on breakout above 10.20 ..

thanks sir for the advice but i have bought ABL now.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on December 09, 2010, 09:18:29 PM
Recommendation - ‘Hold’ with Price Target of Rs72/share
ABL is expected to post profit after tax of Rs8,306mn (EPS Rs10.62) in CY10 on an
unconsolidated basis, registering a 17% YoY growth in bottomline. The bank further is
expected to declare a dividend or Rs2/share along with its annual results, fetching a
dividend yield of 6% at current prices. ABL is currently trading at a PBV 1.77x as opposed to
the listed banking sectors PBV of o.99x. While forward PE for CY10 is hovering around 6.1x.
Though future prospects of the bank seem good, we see a limited potential upside going
forward until sector’s fundamentals improve further. We retain 'Hold' stance on the scrip,
with a target price at Rs72/share.

investcap
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 03, 2011, 11:46:18 AM
bm 11th feb
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 07, 2011, 12:14:40 PM
Allied Bank is scheduled to announce its 2010 results
on Feb 11, 2010, and we expect the bank to register
an unconsolidated earnings growth of 12%YoY,
reporting an EPS of Rs10.16 in 2010. Earnings will
primarily be driven by higher interest earned during
the period, led by growth in earning assets as well as
an uptick in KIBOR, especially in 2H2010. In 4Q
alone, we expect ABL to record a sequential decline of 6% in
earnings, to report an EPS of Rs2.68. Along with the result,
we expect the bank to announce a final cash dividend of
Rs2.5, taking the full year dividend to Rs4.5, and a bonus
issue of 10%. We currently, recommend a ‘Hold’ on the scrip
with a revised target price of Rs72.

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2011, 11:18:10 AM
Allied Bank Limited - 2010 EPS expected at PKR 10.4; 14 percent YoY growth

ABL is likely to report earnings of PKR 8.1bn (EPS: PKR 10.4) as compared to PKR 7.1bn (EPS: PKR 9.1) in CY09, representing growth of 14% YoY.
We expect the bank to announce a final cash dividend of PKR 2 per share taking the full year payout to PKR 4 per share. Moreover, the bank is likely to announce a bonus share issue of 10%.
A positive earnings surprise in the upcoming result can come from the utilization of Forced Sale Value (FSV) of the collaterals against NPLs which ABL had not taken up till Sep’10. It will result in lower credit costs and higher CY10 EPS to the tune of PKR 11.5.
At current market price, the stock is trading at 5.8x CY11E EPS and 1.3x adjusted book value. Our target price of PKR 75 per share yields an upside of 6% along with a dividend yield of 6%. We are maintaining a NEUTRAL rating on the stock.
IGI Research

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 11, 2011, 04:19:02 PM
eps 10.52 dps 2 bonus 10%
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 07, 2011, 02:16:20 PM
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Khatri on March 07, 2011, 03:09:53 PM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 07, 2011, 03:30:20 PM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011

im going to be holding it through the dividend issue
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Khatri on March 07, 2011, 04:13:27 PM
I now also intend to do the same.

Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011

im going to be holding it through the dividend issue
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on March 08, 2011, 12:37:55 AM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011

im going to be holding it through the dividend issue

but in my view, one should change the sector now if the person has bought it at very low rates like, 52, 55, one can invest in the compnies which have announced their hy result in this result season, LUCK NML can be the best replacement considering the the share price, what do other seniors say about my approach?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 08, 2011, 01:00:05 PM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011
im going to be holding it through the dividend issue
but in my view, one should change the sector now if the person has bought it at very low rates like, 52, 55, one can invest in the compnies which have announced their hy result in this result season, LUCK NML can be the best replacement considering the the share price, what do other seniors say about my approach?
your approach is a good opportunistically based one but not the one for me.
my point of view is slightly different - i split my portfolio into two separate parts one based on fundamentals and mostly going for a stable return based on dividend and organic growth and the other for trading in riskier positions.

i added abl a little over a year ago and for me is in the stable part of my portfolio so im probably going to leave it as it is giving me a reasonable return (~30+% over the year) by the grace of god

comments/agree/disagree?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on March 08, 2011, 01:50:13 PM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011
im going to be holding it through the dividend issue
but in my view, one should change the sector now if the person has bought it at very low rates like, 52, 55, one can invest in the compnies which have announced their hy result in this result season, LUCK NML can be the best replacement considering the the share price, what do other seniors say about my approach?
your approach is a good opportunistically based one but not the one for me.
my point of view is slightly different - i split my portfolio into two separate parts one based on fundamentals and mostly going for a stable return based on dividend and organic growth and the other for trading in riskier positions.

i added abl a little over a year ago and for me is in the stable part of my portfolio so im probably going to leave it as it is giving me a reasonable return (~30+% over the year) by the grace of god

comments/agree/disagree?

best of luck man
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 08, 2011, 05:08:23 PM
best of luck man
thanks  :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: M&M on March 14, 2011, 11:53:02 AM
Allied Bank Limited - Earnings growth intact in CY10

    * ABL’s earnings growth remained intact as the bank posted 15.5% YoY growth in profitability at PKR 8.2bn, alongside annualized ROE of 25% and relatively subdued deterioration in asset quality.

    * ABL posted 21% YoY growth in net interest income (NII) to PKR 22.6bn; mainly led by 11% YoY growth in average earning assets and higher NIMs amid shift in deposit mix towards low cost CASA deposits.

    * The key positive was the 31% YoY jump in capital gains on listed securities given ABL’s high exposure to equity markets.

    * ABL’s capital adequacy is currently comfortable at 13.8% which has improved ~250bps over the past two years due to the increase in reserves and reduction in RWAs.

    * We maintain our BUY rating on ABL, as we feel the current valuation levels are attractive at forward P/B and P/E 1.2x and 5.1x respectively.

IGI Research
Research Department | IGI Securities
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 18, 2011, 05:00:39 PM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011
im going to be holding it through the dividend issue

reduced holding by 20% which i plan on buying back around the 58 mark
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 25, 2011, 04:18:56 PM
Should I sell it before book closure or should hold and earn Divident+Bonus, what would you advise?
going XDXB on the 9 of march 2011
im going to be holding it through the dividend issue
reduced holding by 20% which i plan on buying back around the 58 mark
bought back at 59 and it straight away went to 58.5  :brickwall:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Poker Face on March 25, 2011, 04:32:28 PM
don't get annoyed.
In my opinion you have done right. Now you have got back 100% of what you owned before xdxb?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 25, 2011, 04:41:53 PM
don't get annoyed.
In my opinion you have done right. Now you have got back 100% of what you owned before xdxb?
yup its back up to 10%ish

but im annoyed as i deviated from my plan as there was a clear opportunity to buy it back at my target of 58 but i didnt

though in the bigger picture you're right i shouldn't be - its not all bad still saved a rupee

whats your take on this share?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Poker Face on March 25, 2011, 04:45:38 PM
well I personally don't invest in banks but ABL is one of the best performing, low risk and worth holding thingy :biggrin:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on March 25, 2011, 05:03:18 PM
well I personally don't invest in banks but ABL is one of the best performing, low risk and worth holding thingy :biggrin:
same view :fingerscrossed1: :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 04, 2011, 11:19:56 AM
ABL - Earnings and target price raised post CY10 results; BUY stance maintained

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is one of our top picks in the Banking sector. The stock is attractive on risk-reward basis as it offers 3yr earnings CAGR of 14%, ROE of 25% and trades at attractive forward P/E & P/B of 5.2x and 1.2x respectively.
In view of the detailed accounts, we have upgraded our target price by 8% to PKR 70 per share (ex-bonus) and at current levels it offers a potential upside of 17% alongside a dividend yield of 7%. We value ABL at 1.4x CY11E P/B based on Gordon Growth Model.
In CY10, ABL reported 16%YoY earnings growth on the back of 21%YoY increase in net interest income (NII) and 9%YoY decline in credit provisions against NPLs.
ABL’s capital adequacy is currently comfortable at 13.8%, which has improved 250bps over CY08 levels.

IGI Research

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 21, 2011, 11:50:33 AM
Allied Bank Limited ¡V 1Q CY11 EPS expected at PKR 2.8 per share; up 35% YoY

ABL¡¦s board is scheduled to meet on Apr 25¡¦11 to announce its financial performance for 1Q CY11E. We expect earnings to increase by 35% YoY to PKR 2.4bn (EPS: PKR 2.8 ) as compared to PKR 1.8bn (EPS: PKR 2.1) last year.

igi
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 21, 2011, 12:46:08 PM
ABL 1Q2011E EPS Rs 2.81; up 2%QoQ, 36%YoY
Allied Bank is scheduled to report its 1Q results on Monday
(25th April) and we expect post tax profits to rise by 2%QoQ
and 36%YoY to Rs2.4bn (diluted EPS Rs2.81). NII is likely to
arrive at Rs6.5bn, up 7% from 4Q2010 – in line with higher
KIBOR and avg. earning assets in the period. The banks
earning assets rose by 10% in 4Q, led by a robust 14.6%
(Rs32bn) growth in advances.

FinNon interest income is likely to be lower by 17%YoY to
Rs1.3bn (despite healthy dividend income), and down 35%
QoQ – as the bank recorded windfall income from trading of
Rs906mn, unlikely to be repeated in 1Q2011. Further, we
anticipate ABL’s improved 4Q asset quality to lead to a 9%
decline in loan loss charge in 1Q2011. Contained gross NPL
ratio of 7% and higher loan coverage at 83% as of Dec 2010,
support our view. We currently maintain a ‘Hold’ call on the
stock with target price of Rs66 – trading at 2011F PBV and
PE of 1.2x and 6.1x, respectively

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 21, 2011, 01:06:20 PM
AKD Daily

ABL: 1QCY11 Result Preview

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 1QCY11 result on Apr 25'11. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR2.23bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR2.60) in 1QCY11 against NPAT of PkR1.80bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR2.09) in 1QCY10. This translates into stellar growth of 24%YoY although, inline with historical precedence, we do not expect any payouts.

 
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 21, 2011, 03:34:49 PM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/024368-1.gif)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 21, 2011, 03:44:27 PM
any one know why fateh group does not want abl to pay the dividend??  :shock:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 22, 2011, 11:39:41 AM
i found out the following information about the newest fiasco and am sharing it for the information of other members:

FROM THE FATEH TEXTILE MILLS LIMITED ANNUAL REPORT 2008-2009 (as this is the newest available report from their website)
NOTE 17: LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
"
17.1.1 On 23rd July 2004 Privatization Commission of Pakistan invited open bids to raise additional (75%) capital of the Allied Bank of Pakistan Ltd. and highest bid was Rs.43/- per share.

The company has filed a suit against the bank in the High Court of Sindh against inviting bids for sale of these shares with reserve price of Rs. 25 per share. Highest bid is stated to have been received @ Rs. 25.51 per share which was approved and a sum of Rs. 417.754 million has been kept in a deposit account by Allied Bank Limited. It would however be noted that right shares were sold at Rs. 43 per share whereas at the same time the holding of the company's investment in ABL was sold for Rs. 25.51 per share which can only be said to be unjustified. However the matter is still pending in the court.

The price of ABL shares qouted at Karachi Stock Exchnage (Guarentee) Ltd. was Rs.37.00/ share as at june 30, 2009. However gain (of Rs. 196.512 m) on these shares have not been taken to " statement of changes in equity" as required by IAS 39 since management has decided that these shares should remain at its cost price till the outcome of suit and countersuit in Sindh High Court.
"

It also states that their shareholding at the time of going to court stood at 16.376 million. I recalculated the holding for bonuses and it currently, if still owned by Fateh, would stand at ~39.2 million / 5% of ABL.

My opinion on this share, as it is part of my fundamental portfolio, stands at that i am going to be holding this share till the hearing on the 25th of April.

I would appreciate comments that would be more then welcome and helpful for me to decide what to do.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 22, 2011, 04:49:46 PM
ended up getting out of half my position today  :down:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 25, 2011, 01:45:39 PM
eps 3.24  :goodc:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 25, 2011, 03:47:20 PM
eps 3.24  :goodc:

what do you think of the above development?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 25, 2011, 04:03:00 PM
eps 3.24  :goodc:

what do you think of the above development?

result is above expectations
eps 2.945 adjusted for the bonus shares 
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 25, 2011, 05:02:39 PM
eps 3.24  :goodc:

what do you think of the above development?

result is above expectations
eps 2.945 adjusted for the bonus shares 

oh sorry i wasnt clear i didnt mean the result - which was amazing

what i meant is the delay of dividend and the stay order taken by fateh textiles against abl paying their dividend?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on April 28, 2011, 01:10:03 PM
i found out the following information about the newest fiasco and am sharing it for the information of other members:

FROM THE FATEH TEXTILE MILLS LIMITED ANNUAL REPORT 2008-2009 (as this is the newest available report from their website)
NOTE 17: LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
"
17.1.1 On 23rd July 2004 Privatization Commission of Pakistan invited open bids to raise additional (75%) capital of the Allied Bank of Pakistan Ltd. and highest bid was Rs.43/- per share.

The company has filed a suit against the bank in the High Court of Sindh against inviting bids for sale of these shares with reserve price of Rs. 25 per share. Highest bid is stated to have been received @ Rs. 25.51 per share which was approved and a sum of Rs. 417.754 million has been kept in a deposit account by Allied Bank Limited. It would however be noted that right shares were sold at Rs. 43 per share whereas at the same time the holding of the company's investment in ABL was sold for Rs. 25.51 per share which can only be said to be unjustified. However the matter is still pending in the court.

The price of ABL shares qouted at Karachi Stock Exchnage (Guarentee) Ltd. was Rs.37.00/ share as at june 30, 2009. However gain (of Rs. 196.512 m) on these shares have not been taken to " statement of changes in equity" as required by IAS 39 since management has decided that these shares should remain at its cost price till the outcome of suit and countersuit in Sindh High Court.
"

It also states that their shareholding at the time of going to court stood at 16.376 million. I recalculated the holding for bonuses and it currently, if still owned by Fateh, would stand at ~39.2 million / 5% of ABL.

My opinion on this share, as it is part of my fundamental portfolio, stands at that i am going to be holding this share till the hearing on the 25th of April.

I would appreciate comments that would be more then welcome and helpful for me to decide what to do.
FYI

I spoke to Mr. Mohd Tahsim (Shareholders Department?!?!) yesterday and found out that:

This stay order is to do with the original shareholding of Fateh in ABL, as i had assumed earlier, but represented 16% of abl pre going public.
It seems that fatehs shares in abl were with the bank for "safe keeping" which i am going to assume means collateral, and when fatehs "dues" were over due the bank sold their shareholding which i am going to assume to mean interest payments - admittedly at a price significantly lower then what they sold their own shareholding at.

Fateh contends that their shareholding was illegally sold, and therefore they are entitled to all subsequent dividends and bonuses which amounts to 22.866 million shares (the cash amount i have not calculated). ABL contends that they have no case as the shares have already been sold and their legal counsel feels that this will be thrown out of court.

Though as is the norm in Pakistan something like this could potentially drag on for any where between weeks to years.
Two things worth mentioning are the first day the fateh people didn't even bother to show up, as per the notice from abl to kse on 21-April-2011, and yesterdays notice says the case has been moved to 2-May-2011 - considering that this case itself has been going on since 2004 i dont think that a resolution is at hand and trying to time the courts decision is too big an unknown and resembles a gamble. I also think that till this stay order is sorted out all subsequent dividends will be delayed as well, therefore i am removing this share from my dividend portfolio 

:down:
lanath
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on May 17, 2011, 12:05:37 PM
Following the release of 1Q financials, we adjust our
earning estimates upwards for Allied Bank Limited
(ABL) across 2011-13 by 12-15%, respectively. The
revision is based on 1) an impressive 41%YoY
growth in 1Q earnings with significant jump in interest
income, likely to continue in the coming quarters as
NIMs remain strong 2) lower NPL/advances and
adequate coverage likely to keep provisioning pressure low
and 3) healthy outlook on fee income. Resultantly, we raise
our stance to ‘Buy’ with a revised target price to Rs73 (Rs66
earlier). The scrip currently trades at 2011F PBV and PE of
1.1x and 5.1x, respectively.

2011/13 earnings raised by 12-15%, TP Rs73
Following 1Q results, we raise our earning estimates across
2011/13 by 12-15%. We now expect the bank to register
earnings growth of 26% and 11% in 2011 and 2012,
respectively.
Estimates revision
(Rupees) 2011F 2012F 2013F TP
Old EPS 10.41 11.88 12.81 66
New EPS 12.01 13.28 14.43 73
Change 15.4% 11.8% 12.7% 10.6%
Source: JS Research

Investment perspective: ‘Buy’
Strong 1Q NIMs and current NPL positioning has enabled
ABL to continue its strong earning performance, in our view.
However, any significant build up in NPLs and change in
corporate tax regime remain near term risks. We upgrade our
stance to ‘Buy’ with the scrip trading at 2011E PBV and PE of
1.1x and 5.1x, respectively.

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on May 17, 2011, 01:00:36 PM
i found out the following information about the newest fiasco and am sharing it for the information of other members:

FROM THE FATEH TEXTILE MILLS LIMITED ANNUAL REPORT 2008-2009 (as this is the newest available report from their website)
NOTE 17: LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
"
17.1.1 On 23rd July 2004 Privatization Commission of Pakistan invited open bids to raise additional (75%) capital of the Allied Bank of Pakistan Ltd. and highest bid was Rs.43/- per share.

The company has filed a suit against the bank in the High Court of Sindh against inviting bids for sale of these shares with reserve price of Rs. 25 per share. Highest bid is stated to have been received @ Rs. 25.51 per share which was approved and a sum of Rs. 417.754 million has been kept in a deposit account by Allied Bank Limited. It would however be noted that right shares were sold at Rs. 43 per share whereas at the same time the holding of the company's investment in ABL was sold for Rs. 25.51 per share which can only be said to be unjustified. However the matter is still pending in the court.

The price of ABL shares qouted at Karachi Stock Exchnage (Guarentee) Ltd. was Rs.37.00/ share as at june 30, 2009. However gain (of Rs. 196.512 m) on these shares have not been taken to " statement of changes in equity" as required by IAS 39 since management has decided that these shares should remain at its cost price till the outcome of suit and countersuit in Sindh High Court.
"

It also states that their shareholding at the time of going to court stood at 16.376 million. I recalculated the holding for bonuses and it currently, if still owned by Fateh, would stand at ~39.2 million / 5% of ABL.

My opinion on this share, as it is part of my fundamental portfolio, stands at that i am going to be holding this share till the hearing on the 25th of April.

I would appreciate comments that would be more then welcome and helpful for me to decide what to do.
FYI

I spoke to Mr. Mohd Tahsim (Shareholders Department?!?!) yesterday and found out that:

This stay order is to do with the original shareholding of Fateh in ABL, as i had assumed earlier, but represented 16% of abl pre going public.
It seems that fatehs shares in abl were with the bank for "safe keeping" which i am going to assume means collateral, and when fatehs "dues" were over due the bank sold their shareholding which i am going to assume to mean interest payments - admittedly at a price significantly lower then what they sold their own shareholding at.

Fateh contends that their shareholding was illegally sold, and therefore they are entitled to all subsequent dividends and bonuses which amounts to 22.866 million shares (the cash amount i have not calculated). ABL contends that they have no case as the shares have already been sold and their legal counsel feels that this will be thrown out of court.

Though as is the norm in Pakistan something like this could potentially drag on for any where between weeks to years.
Two things worth mentioning are the first day the fateh people didn't even bother to show up, as per the notice from abl to kse on 21-April-2011, and yesterdays notice says the case has been moved to 2-May-2011 - considering that this case itself has been going on since 2004 i dont think that a resolution is at hand and trying to time the courts decision is too big an unknown and resembles a gamble. I also think that till this stay order is sorted out all subsequent dividends will be delayed as well, therefore i am removing this share from my dividend portfolio 

:down:
lanath

incase any one is wondering the case seems to be have worked out as per the last notice to the kse, i have recieved my bonus from the dec2010 result yesterday and am awaiting the cash portion.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ihashishin on May 17, 2011, 03:10:52 PM
incase any one is wondering the case seems to be have worked out as per the last notice to the kse, i have recieved my bonus from the dec2010 result yesterday and am awaiting the cash portion.
chalo cash dividend bhi aaj aa gaya
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on June 17, 2011, 11:14:39 AM
ABL - Attractive on risk-reward profile

ABL is one of our top picks in the banking sector. In Jun’11, ABL’s price has rallied 6% outperforming the KSE100 and IGI Banking cluster by ~5%. Meanwhile in CY10 & YTD CY11, ABL’s stock price rallied 41% and 5% as compared to KSE100 index gain of 41% & 3% and IGI Banking Universe up-tick of 20% and 1%.

In 1Q CY11, ABL reported net earnings of PKR 2.51bn as compared to PKR 1.77bn in the corresponding period last year, representing growth of 41% YoY.
NPL accretion slowed down to PKR 0.7bn QoQ to PKR 19.4bn while full-year NPL growth in CY10 slowed to 13% YoY compared to past 2yr average of 20%.

ABL maintains a blue-chip dividend paying equity portfolio which had un-realized gains of PKR 3.5bn as per Mar’11 financials.
At current market price, the stock is trading at 5.6x CY11E EPS and 1.3x adjusted book value.. Our target price of PKR 70 per share yields a potential upside of 8% along with a dividend yield of 6%.
 
IGI Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on July 25, 2011, 10:41:11 AM
abl bm 1st aug
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on July 29, 2011, 08:13:42 PM
ABL is scheduled to announced its 1HCY11 results on July 31, 2011 where we expect the
company to post earnings of PKR5.17bn (EPS diluted of PKR:6.01), up by 42.8% over the
preceding year’s earnings of PKR3.62bn (EPS diluted PKR4.21). On a QoQ basis earnings are
forecasted to improve 5.9%, primarily backed by lower provisions and greater Non?Markup
income. Furthermore we have not incorporated the 15% flood surcharge. In case ABL accounts
for flood surcharge, the EPS for the quarter would be around PKR2.95/share. We
are not expecting any payout during the 2QCY11.

hmfs
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on July 29, 2011, 08:15:12 PM
ABL 2QCY11 results preview
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce its2QCY11 results on August
1, 2011. We expect it to post a profit after tax of PKR 2,521m (EPS: PKR 2.93) in
the 2Q, to bring up the first half PAT by 39.0% to PKR 5,032m (EPS: PKR 5.85).
We are not expecting any dividends.
The key drivers for this growth will be the combination of high yields and low cost of
funds, along with expected improvement in non-core operations.
Moreover, in the first half of CY11, provisions charge will likely decline by 48.1%,
due to the fact that they were low in the first quarter compared to the corresponding
period last year when PKR 100m were kept as general provision over and above
that required (in 1HCY10, ABL put a total of PKR 400m in general provisions which
were above the requirement; we do not expect this prudent action to be repeated
this time).

taurus
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: STOCK.DEPENDENT on August 01, 2011, 02:55:43 PM
2Q EPS 2.93 PREVIOUS 2.14
HY EPS 5.85 PREVIOUS 4.21
PAYOUT 25%D
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 02, 2011, 02:40:01 PM
Investment summary
ABL reported its 1HCY11 results, pronouncing robust growth of 39% in its after tax profits
which amounted to Rs.5.03bn (Basic & Diluted EPS of Rs.5.85bn/sh) as against Rs.3.62bn
(Basic & Diluted EPS of Rs.4.21/sh) in the same period last year. ABL also declared 25%
interim cash dividend (Rs.2.5/sh) compared with 20% interim cash dividend (Rs.2.0/sh)
announced last year.
Quarterly; ABL profits seems matched with 1QCY11 (comparable EPS: 2.92/sh) to Rs.2.93/sh
in 2QCY11.

Valuation summary ? justified P/BV – Target price 73.6/sh...
For the valuation purpose, we used justified Price to Book methodology which yielded a
multiple of 1.5x, wherein it illustrates target price of Rs.73.6/sh. We upgraded our model
to incorporate change in discount rate of 13.5%. Taking account of discount rate of 14%, it
delineates a target price of Rs.71.3/sh which increases to Rs.73.6/sh following the change in
the policy rate. ABL also yield P/BV multiple of 1.46x (wherein we assign target multiple of
2.5x reminiscent to what we have assigned to MCB Bank). BUY

Profit and Loss A/c (Rs.bn) CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E CY13E
Net Interest Income 13.30 18.70 22.57 27.14 30.16 33.57
Non Interest Income 4.90 5.96 5.67 5.69 5.80 6.10
Non Interest Expenses (8.92) (9.62) ( 11.81) (13.60) (15.51) ( 17.65)
Profit before tax 5.95 6.12 10.54 12.34 15.02 16.01
Taxation (1.96) (3.41) (4.12) (5.26) (5.60) (6.00)
Profit after tax 4.16 7.12 8.23 9.77 10.41 11.15
EPS (Basic & Diluted) Rs/sh 5.31 9.11 10.52 11.35 12.10 12.96
PE (x) 12.02 7.02 6.08 5.63 5.28 4.93
Source: ABL financials & scstrade research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on September 16, 2011, 12:11:42 PM
AKD Daily

ABL: Target Price Revision

While ABL has posted strong 39%YoY growth in 1HCY11 and we leave our CY11F-CY15F largely unchanged, we trim our target price to PkR70/share from PkR75/share previously. This is largely due to a higher equity risk premium (6%) to account for relative lack of liquidity in the scrip. That said, we reiterate our positive bias on ABL where we expect that ABL will close CY11F with a growth of 20%YoY and will post a 5yr NPAT CAGR of 13%. Growth should be led by sustained high NIMs (~5.9% on average across the next 5yrs) and lower credit costs where NPL accretion is showing steady deceleration. Impetus to earnings may arise from capital gains where, on Jun 30'11, ABL retained unrealized gains of PkR3.4bn pertaining to its equity portfolio. At current levels, ABL trades at a CY11F P/B of 1.07x and PER of 5.25x where our revised target price of PkR70/share offers an upside of 16% alongside a 12m rolling dividend yield of 8.3%. Accumulate!    .

39%YoY growth in 1HCY11: On a consolidated basis, ABL posted NPAT of PkR5.07bn (EPS: PkR5.90), up a strong 39%YoY. Alongside, ABL announced an interim dividend of PkR2.5/share (payout ratio: 42%). Key highlights included 1) strong 17%YoY NII growth (est. 1HCY11 NIMs: 6.3%), 2) 53%YoY decline in total provisions, 3) 16%YoY growth in non-interest income and 4) high 23%YoY increase in non-interest expenses. On a sequential basis, 2QCY11 NPAT remained flat at PkR2.54bn (EPS: PkR2.95) as higher provisions were offset by non-interest income (despite the bank realizing lower capital gains on a QoQ basis).

Slower NPL formation: NPL stock increased to PkR20.5bn on Jun 30'11, up 19%YoY and 6%QoQ. While recent floods may lead to some slippage in the near-term and ageing may lead to higher provisions in 2HCY11, we remain confident that overall asset quality remains in control. In this regard, the NPL ratio remains less than 8% while provisioning coverage remains adequate at 80% (particularly as the bank has not availed any FSV benefit). Going forward, we estimate that credit costs should ease from 1% in CY11F (1.4% in CY10) to less than 0.5% by CY15F.

Investment Perspective: ABL has shed 5%CYTD, outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 1% in the process. Going forward, we project a 5yr NPAT CAGR of 13%, driven by sustained high NIMs and declining credit costs. This should enable ABL to post an average Tier-I CAR of 22.2% across the next 5yrs. ABL trades at a CY11F P/B of 1.07x, PER of 5.25x and 12m rolling dividend yield of 8.3%. The scrip offers an upside of 16% to our revised target price of PkR70/share. Accumulate!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 13, 2011, 04:57:36 PM
bm 20th oct
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 18, 2011, 11:50:50 AM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce
its 9M2011 results on October 20, 2011, and we
expect the bank to register an unconsolidated
earnings growth of 31%YoY, reporting an EPS of
Rs8.91. Earnings will primarily be driven by higher
net interest income, lower loan losses and rising non
interest income. In 3Q alone, we expect ABL to
record a growth of 4%QoQ and report an EPS of Rs3.06. As
the bank has already paid an interim dividend of Rs2.5 per
share, we do not anticipate a payout from the bank in 3Q in
1H2011. We currently recommend a ‘Hold’ on the scrip with
target price of Rs73.

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2011, 11:55:54 AM
ABL Result Preview – 3Q CY11 EPS expected at PKR 2.8 per share
 

•ABL’s board is scheduled to meet on Oct 20’11 to announce its financial performance for 3Q CY11. We expect earnings to increase by 9% YoY to PKR 2.4bn (EPS: PKR 2.83) as compared to PKR 2.2bn (EPS: 2.59) last year.

•Total revenues (NIM + non-fund) are likely to rise by 7% YoY to PKR 7.5bn. Meanwhile, pre-provision profits are expected to increase by 2% to PKR 4.2bn in 3Q CY11E.
 
•Credit provisions are likely to decline by 27% YoY to PKR 0.7bn as compared to PKR 1bn last year. Meanwhile, operating expenses are likely to remain under control rising by 14% YoY to PKR 3.1bn inline with inflationary trends.

•We have lowered our risk-free rate to 12% in line with declining interest rates. We maintain our BUY rating on ABL and our revised target price of PKR 80 per share, which implies potential upside of 23% from current levels.
 
IGI Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2011, 12:24:58 PM

AKD Daily

ABL: 9MCY11 Result Preview

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY11 result tomorrow. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR7.74bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR8.99) in 9MCY11 against NPAT of PkR5.89bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR6.84) in 9MCY10, translating into a robust growth of 31%YoY. Since ABL has already announced a cash payout alongside 1HCY11 results, we do not expect any payout alongside upcoming results. Key highlights of 9MCY11 results are expected to be 1) 13%YoY NII growth primarily due to growth in earning assets, 2) a 34%YoY decline in loan provisions due to contained NPL formation, 3) strong 25%YoY non-interest income growth and 4) 18%YoY increase in admin expenses. On a sequential basis, 3QCY11 consolidated NPAT is projected at PkR2.67bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR3.10), up 5%QoQ where capital gains could be a key swing factor. In this regard, we estimate that ABL's unrealized stock of capital gains could have exceeded PkR4bn by Sep 30'11 with a further unrealized gain of PkR1.3bn in 3QCY11 alone (ABL maintains a sizeable strategic stake in FFC which has been the best performing stock in the Pakistan Market CYTD). We estimate that 3QCY11 gains could have added PkR1.5/share to ABL's book value. ABL trades at a CY12F P/B of 1.16x and PER of 5.30x. At current levels, our target price of PkR75.5/share offers upside of 16%. Accumulate.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 21, 2011, 10:30:47 AM
Financial rundown
ABL 9MCY11 financial results are out, pronouncing growth of 32% in its after tax profit which amounted to Rs 7.73bn (Diluted EPS: Rs 8.98/sh) as against Rs 5.85bn (Diluted EPS: Rs.6.80/sh) in the same period last year. ABL’s reported earnings are 5.5% higher from our estimation. We therefore upgrade our CY11 earnings estimate by Rs 0.68/sh (or 18%) to Rs 12.03/sh.
Quarterly; ABL’s profit augmented by 7% to Rs 3.13/sh from Rs 2.93/sh in 2QCY11.


High NIMs remained on ABL’s side | Policy rate cut may induce credit off take…
Net Interest Income (NII) soared by 12.5% (y?o?y basis) to Rs.18.6bn on account of high Net Interest Margins (NIMs) which currently stood in the territory of 6.4% ? 6.6%. However, the growth in NII seems to cool down in 3QCY11 (only up by 1% q?o?q), ostensibly after SBP’s Monetary Policy Decision to dial back policy rate by 50bps to 13.5% in July 30, 2011.
Recently, market observed reduction in the policy rate by 150bps to 12%. SBP cited decline in inflation and government borrowing to be the prime reason for its action. This action was followed by the declining trend of KIBOR. We expect ABL NIMs to hover near 6.3% declining from 6.6% ? 6.8% in 1HCY11.
1HCY11 financial results showed ABL’s strategy to remain cautious on the part of lending. This was witnessed by decline in advances by 4.5% from Rs253.1bn in CY10 to Rs241.7bn in 1HCY11. We believe, this policy rate cut could be a good omen for rebound in the private credit?off take and advances as a whole. Expected downward turn in NIMs can be setoff by increase in credit?off take.

Slowing down provisions – bring cheers to ABL
ABL’s provisions plunged by 59% y?o?y in 9MCY11, while in the 3QCY11 alone it declined by 70% on y?o?y basis. ABL seems to have tamed its advances as witnessed by decelerated provisions. Quarterly; provisions are down by 54%.
This reduction in provisions is apparently due to ABL watchful approach while at the same time preferring government papers to be a safe way of diverting deposits. Recent policy rate cut may induce banks to take a shift from growing interest in investments in government securities to allowing more advances. Thus stringent approach should be used to examine the credit worthiness of any company to avoid swelling non performing loans.

Valuation summary ? justified P/BV – 1.8x | Target price Rs 93.4/sh...
We have fine tuned our model, whereby incorporating the effects of reduction in discount rate (currently 12%, 150bps down), cooling down in the pace of provisions and relevant adjustments with regards to current result updates.
We see high earning propensity in ABL, as witnessed by latest results which showed slowing down provisions hence higher profitability. Moreover, ABL is thriving at high NIMs and recent decline in policy rate may induce ABL to earn more on advances. After making relevant adjustments, we arrived at a new justified Price to Book value multiple (PBV) of 1.8x wherein target price is upgraded to Rs 93.4/sh (45% upside).
We expect ABL to be a final dividend play, final payout to be in the range of Rs 2 – Rs 2.5 (20%?25%), summing up the total CY11 payout to 45% ? 50%. This could also be accompanied by 10% ? 20% customary bonus issue.
We maintain ‘Buy’ stance on ABL.

sctrade
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: momo on November 24, 2011, 11:48:21 AM
What's wrong with this stock? Any ideas?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: momo on December 13, 2011, 08:12:50 PM
Good possibility of this bouncing back? My average is around 63.

Thanks.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: masamad on December 14, 2011, 12:09:48 AM
nothing wrong with it. just hold it will bounce back definatly.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on January 11, 2012, 03:41:11 PM

abl 65m shares cross trade today c2c
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on January 11, 2012, 10:19:38 PM

abl 65m shares cross trade today c2c

at 52.1 thru ahl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on January 20, 2012, 10:30:29 PM
ABL: Higher NII to behind earning growth
An interest income of the bank likely to enlarge by 12.3% to Rs 50.52 billion for CY11 against Rs
44.99 billion in the same period of last year mainly due to volumetric growth in earning assets
and better yields. Interest expense is expected to surge by 13.6% to Rs 25.48 billion compared
to Rs 22.42 billion in CY10. Consequently, net interest income (NII) would up by 11% to Rs 25.03
billion against Rs 22.56 billion in CY10.

Investment up 71%, IDR of 54%
Although deposits of the bank grew by 3.7% stood at Rs 384.95 billion, gross Investments surge
by 71% at Rs 207.15 billion versus Rs 121.17 billion in 9MCY10. Gross Advances, keeping in line
with prudent lending strategy were down by 7.2% at Rs 249.29 billion over the gross advances
of Rs 268.53 billion as at September 30, 2010. The balance sheet size stood at Rs 511.27 billion
at 9MCY11 versus Rs 449.93 billion in 9MCY10, up by 13.6%. ADR remained at 64.8% while IDR
at 53.8% from 32.6% at 9MCY10 due to higher investments and borrowing from financial institutions.

Non-interest income to support profits too
Non Interest Income of the bank is expected at Rs 5.75 billion in CY11 from Rs 5.67 billion last
year showing growth of 1.4% YoY whereas it is expected to grow at 3-year CAGR of 4%.
Consumer banking business is expected to fuel growth in Fee, commission and brokerage
income. ABL has high potential in investment banking and capital markets division which will further
boost non-interest income. Furthermore, ABL is expected to capture a major share from the
ongoing growth in trade activities of the country on the basis of its large branch network. The
share of fee income has always been highest in total non interest income of ABL however; its
share in overall revenue has declined owing to healthy growth in net interest income.

          CY10A CY11E CY12F CY13F
EPS ( Rs) 9.56 12.23 11.77 12.42
Book Value (Rs/share) 36.23 42.77 49.05 55.47
DPS (Rs) 4.50 5.50 6.00 8.50
P/E (x) 5.96 4.66 4.84 4.59
P/BV(x) 1.57 1.33 1.16 1.03
Dividend Yield (%) 7.89 9.65 10.53 14.91
Dividend Payout (%) 42.8 45.0 51.0 68.4
Source: AZEE Research & Company Reports

Recommendation
Our December end 2012 price target for ABL comes to Rs78.75/share, based on a normalized
ROE of 25%, which results in a fair P/B of 1.6x. Therefore, we currently recommend BUY for ABL
at these levels.

azee
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: frazmunaf on January 30, 2012, 10:44:49 PM
tomorrow we r bullish in abl :biggthumpup:inshallah. :goodc:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: frazmunaf on January 30, 2012, 10:46:33 PM
we r the best. :biggthumpup: :clap1:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: kamal on January 31, 2012, 09:15:17 AM
tomorrow we r bullish in abl :biggthumpup:inshallah. :goodc:

Dont know the reason for ur bulishness. But as per my info . ABL will post PAT lesser than the previous one. ;)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on February 06, 2012, 05:46:02 PM
BM 14FEB,please comment kahan tak jasakta hai before BM.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 06, 2012, 09:59:46 PM
BM 14FEB,please comment kahan tak jasakta hai before BM.

65-68
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 09, 2012, 01:50:49 PM
AKD Daily
 
ABL: CY11 Result Preview
 
Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its full-year CY11 result on Tuesday, Feb 14'12. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR10.17bn (EPS: PkR11.82) in CY11 against NPAT of PkR8.28bn (EPS: PkR10.59) in CY10, translating into robust growth of 23%YoY. However, 4QCY11 NPAT is expected to dip by 13%QoQ to PkR2.38bn on a slight sequential contraction in NII and a spike in loan provisions. Alongside the result, we expect ABL to announce a final cash dividend of PkR2/share (bringing full-year CY11 payout to PkR4.5/share) as well as a 10% bonus in order to meet CY12 MCR requirement of PkR9bn. Key highlights for CY11 are expected to be 1) 9%YoY NII growth, 2) a 30%YoY decline in loan provisions, 3) 14%YoY increase in non-interest income on higher dividend & fx income and 4) high admin expense growth of 21%YoY. Having gained 16.75%CYTD, ABL trades at a CY12F P/B of 1.1x and PER of 5.1x where our target price of PkR75.5/share offers upside of 21%. In this regard, we believe ABL will continue to enjoy superior valuations, primarily owing to one of the highest ROE among Pakistan Banks, superior asset quality and a strong franchise (9MCY11 estimated. NIMs at 6.2% remain strong). Upside to earnings estimates exists on potential tapping of sizeable capital gains backlog.
 
Investment Perspective: ABL has gained 16.75%CYTD to trade at a CY12F P/B of 1.1x and PER of 5.1x. Despite these gains, ABL’s valuations remain highly attractive where we believe the bank deserves to trade at a premium relative to peers. The latter is justified in our view given ABL's robust ROE (CY12F: 23%, one of the highest among Pakistani banks), strong asset quality dynamics (contained NPL slippage, coverage >80%) and sizeable capital gains backlog (PkR3.6bn on Sep 30'11). We project 5yr NPAT CAGR of 10 % going forward while strong capital strength (Tier-I CAR projected to stay above 20%) implies potential for a ramp-up in payouts going forward.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2012, 12:09:22 PM
ABL: EPS expected at Rs11.87 in 2011
The Board of Directors of ABL is scheduled to announce the
bank’s 2011 result on February 14, 2012. We expect the bank
to register an unconsolidated earnings growth of 24%YoY,
reporting an EPS of Rs11.87 (PAT Rs10.2bn).

Earnings will primarily be driven by higher net interest income
(up 10%YoY) and lower loan losses (a decline of 29%YoY).
Non Interest income which is expected to be up by 6%YoY to
Rs6.0bn will also aid the bottom line of the company.
However, on QoQ basis earnings are likely to dip in 4Q
mainly on account of a slight decline in NII. We also anticipate
the board to announce a final cash dividend of Rs2 per share
taking the cumulative dividend to Rs4.5 per share. The bank
currently trades at 2012F PE and PBV of 5.0x and 1.0x
respectively and we currently recommend a ‘Buy’ on the stock
with a target price of Rs72.

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: kamal on February 10, 2012, 12:14:49 PM
ABL: EPS expected at Rs11.87 in 2011
The Board of Directors of ABL is scheduled to announce the
bank’s 2011 result on February 14, 2012. We expect the bank
to register an unconsolidated earnings growth of 24%YoY,
reporting an EPS of Rs11.87 (PAT Rs10.2bn).

Earnings will primarily be driven by higher net interest income
(up 10%YoY) and lower loan losses (a decline of 29%YoY).
Non Interest income which is expected to be up by 6%YoY to
Rs6.0bn will also aid the bottom line of the company.
However, on QoQ basis earnings are likely to dip in 4Q
mainly on account of a slight decline in NII. We also anticipate
the board to announce a final cash dividend of Rs2 per share
taking the cumulative dividend to Rs4.5 per share. The bank
currently trades at 2012F PE and PBV of 5.0x and 1.0x
respectively and we currently recommend a ‘Buy’ on the stock
with a target price of Rs72.

jsgcl


kitna sahe EPS batatay hain ...EPS ... :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 11, 2012, 09:42:14 PM
ABL CY11- Result Preview
ABL is scheduled to announce its result for CY11 and we expect the bank to post net profit
of PKR 10.05bn (EPS PKR 11.69), up by 22% YoY from PKR 8.23bn (EPS PKR 9.56) last
year. On a standalone basis earnings for 4Q CY11 are estimated at PKR 2.33bn (EPS PKR
2.70), a decline of 2% YoY from PKR 2.38bn (EPS PKR 2.76) in the corresponding quarter
of last year. This translates into a sequential decline of 14% from PKR 2.70bn (EPS PKR
3.13) in 3Q CY11. Moreover, we expect ABL to announce a final dividend of PKR
2.50/share, bringing total payout to PKR 5.00/share along with a bonus issue of 10%.

global sec
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 11, 2012, 09:43:27 PM
Banking: ABL – EPS is likely to be
at PKR11.78 in CY11…
Synopsis…
• We expect ABL to post PAT of PKR10.14bn [EPS
PKR11.78] in CY11 as against PAT of PKR8.28bn
[EPS PKR9.63] in the same period last year.
• 9% YoY and 8% YoY growth in net interest income
and non interest income are expected to be the key
drivers to augment the bottom line.
• In addition to this, 56% YoY decline in provisioning
expense is also likely to support the earnings
positively.
• We also expect, the bank may declare a 25% cash
dividend along with results announcement.
• With our Fair Value of PKR68, and we advice a HOLD
stance.

summit
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: AGz on February 14, 2012, 12:35:15 PM
ALLIED BANK LTD.

Annual Result
EPS          Rs. 11.79
Dividend   Rs.   2.5
Bonus            10%

Book Closure: 21 March 2012 - 27 March 2012
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: AGz on February 14, 2012, 12:44:43 PM
ALLIED BANK LTD.

Annual Result
EPS          Rs. 11.79
Dividend   Rs.   2.5
Bonus            10%

Book Closure: 21 March 2012 - 27 March 2012

(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/030606-1.gif)
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/030606-2.gif)
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/030606-3.gif)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 14, 2012, 09:21:17 PM


AKD Research - Off the Analyst's Desk
 ABL: CY11 Result Review   

On a consolidated basis, ABL has posted NPAT of Pk10.26bn (EPS: PkR11.92) in CY11 against NPAT of PkR8.28bn (EPS: PkR9.63) in CY10, translating into growth of 24%YoY. The result was inline with our projected CY11 NPAT of PkR 10.17bn (EPS: PkR11.82). Alongside the result, ABL announced a dividend of PkR2.5/share (to bring full-year payout to PkR5/share) as well as a 10% bonus issue.

 Key highlights of CY11 result include 1) 11%YoY growth in NII, 2) 26%YoY decline in total provisions, 3) 24%YoY increase in non interest income and 4) 19%YoY increase in non interest expense.

 4QCY11 NPAT has registered at PkR2.46bn (EPS: PkR2.86), up 3%YoY/down 9%QoQ where the sequential decline is attributable to a 4.3xQoQ jump in loan provisions to PkR1.3bn (AKD estimate: PkR800mn) even as dividend income has surprised by increasing 2xQoQ to PkR1.4bn (vs. AKD estimate of PkR500mn). While 4QCY11 NII is up 4%QoQ to PkR6.5bn, there has been a 15%QoQ and 26%QoQ jump in gross interest income and interest income, respectively, which could be due to strong balance sheet growth. 

 ABL trades at a CY12F P/B of 1.08x and PER of 4.94x where our target price of PkR75.5/share implies a Buy stance. That said, we will look to tweak our financial model post release of detailed CY11 accounts.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on February 22, 2012, 01:03:53 PM
why its not moving?please farzooq bhai comment.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on March 06, 2012, 01:01:04 PM
capp :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :clap1: :banana: :banana: :banana: :banana: :banana:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on March 06, 2012, 11:51:16 PM
Abl ko sale kahan pe krna chahiye Poker & Farzooq bhai please suggest.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on March 07, 2012, 01:37:18 PM
hold or sell?please advice.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on March 11, 2012, 01:56:12 PM
allied bank has 10.7 billion invested in stock as 0f 31-12-2011

fatima fertilizer @ 18.54   50 million shares
FFC     @ 92.62                    27.2 million shares
lucky @ 82.09                   10 million shares
nishat power and Nishat chunian  @ 10    30 million shares each
would the increase in share price  of above shares will increase profit?


As per latest share holding pattern

ibrahim  fiber                      31.48 %
directors & sponsors          48.88 %
SBP                                     10.07 %
Abl employee fund              2.21 %

Total                                 92.64 %

ie there are less than 8 % shares available in the market. will this also affect share price?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on March 26, 2012, 11:54:48 AM
Allied Bank Limited’s (ABL) 2011 earnings were
largely in line with our expectation with bottom line
surging by 23%YoY to Rs10.1bn (EPS: Rs10.71).
Higher Net Interest Income (NII) and lower provisions
on account of contracting loan book were the major
reasons behind the growth in the bottom line.
Furthermore in line with the industry’s trend, bank’s
deposit base grew by a notable ~8%YoY and earning assets
witnessed an increase of 18%YoY. We have reviewed our
investment case post this result and revised up our earnings
estimates for the bank by 1-4% for 2012F-13F. Consequently,
our target price has been revised by 5% to Rs77 and we
maintain our ‘Buy’ call on the stock. ABL currently trades at
2012F PE and PBV of 4.9x and 1.1x.

4Q earnings declined on higher provisions
Earnings in 4Q2011 remained under pressure on account of
considerable rise in provisions which came in at Rs1.7bn a 5x
increase over last quarter. Furthermore, NII only grew by
5%QoQ as a result of depressed margins. Non funded
income grew by an impressive 62%QoQ however; a 13%QoQ
growth in admin expenses further pulled back the earnings.

Financial highlights
(Rs mn) 2011 2010 YoY?% 4Q2011 QoQ?%
Mark-up int earned 5 1,814 44,993 15% 1 4,581 15%
Mark-up int paid 2 6,643 22,428 19% 8 ,028 25%
Net Interest Income 2 5,171 22,565 12% 6 ,553 5%
Prov/write offs 3 ,009 4,083 -26% 1 ,705 446%
22,162 18,482 20% 4,848 -18%
Non interest income 6 ,950 5,672 23% 2,436 62%
Operating exp 1 4,003 11,810 19% 3 ,803 13%
Profit Before Tax 1 5,108 12,343 22% 3 ,481 -14%
Taxation 4 ,969 4,118 21% 1,069 -22%
Profit After Tax 1 0,140 8 ,225 23% 2,412 -11%
Diluted EPS (Rs) 1 0.71 8 .69 23% 2 .55 -11%
Source: Company accounts

Nevertheless, for the full year (2011) the bank was able to
register an increase of 23%YoY in the bottom line. Major
highlights of the result were 1) a 12%YoY increase in NII, 2)
provisions declined by 26%YoY to Rs3.0bn and 3) non
funded income showed a growth of 23%YoY to Rs6.9bn
mainly driven by strong dividend income of Rs2.7bn (up
140%YoY). Bank’s asset quality deteriorated with NPLs
making 7.8% of gross loans in 2011 compared to 6.9% last
year. However, loan coverage came in at 86% in 2011
compared to 83% in 2010.

Total assets surpass Rs500bn
ABL’s total asset base for the first time crossed Rs500bn to
come in at Rs516bn, a growth of 15%YoY. While advances
declined by 3%YoY to Rs244mn on account of tough
economic conditions, limited appetite for credit from the
private sector and increased risk aversion from the bank,
investments grew by an impressive 62%YoY to Rs196mn.
Bulk of investments were dominated by risk free short term
government securities. On the liabilities front, the deposit
base grew by ~8%YoY to Rs400mn with a major focus on
CASA deposits. Bank’s CASA ratio improved to 58% in 2011
from 55% last year.

Recommendation: ‘Buy’ maintained
We have slightly revised our earnings estimates for 2012F-
13F for the bank by 1-4%. We now expect the bank to post a
diluted EPS of Rs12.2 in 2012 mainly driven by an impressive
asset portfolio and prudent approach to building the loan
book. Consequently, our target price has been revised up by
5% to Rs77 and we maintain our ‘Buy’ call on the stock.

EPS revision
(Rs) New Old %?
2012F 12.20 12.07 1%
2013F 13.61 13.12 4%
Target Price 77 73 5%
Source: JS Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 19, 2012, 12:07:38 PM
ABL: EPS expected at Rs2.84 in 1Q2012
We expect the bank to post a profit after tax of Rs2.7bn
(diluted EPS: Rs2.84) in 1Q2012 compared to earnings of
Rs2.5bn (diluted EPS: Rs2.65), a growth of 7%YoY. Earnings
will primarily be driven by higher net interest income (up
6%YoY) and non funded income (up 17%YoY). While loan
losses are expected to decline (taking cue from SBP’s data,
Rs12.0bn provisions recorded in 1Q2012 vs Rs16.1bn in
1Q2011), reversals in provision of diminution in investments
last year is likely to keep cumulative provisions number lower
by 5%YoY at Rs328mn.

Moreover, in line with the inflationary trend operating
expenses are likely to remain high by 11%YoY at Rs3.9bn.
We do not expect the bank to announce any payout with the
result. The bank currently trades at 2012F PE and PBV of
5.2x and 1.2x respectively and recommend a ‘Buy’ on the
stock with a target price of Rs81.

jsgcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 19, 2012, 10:28:05 PM
Allied Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QCY12 results on April 24, 2012 where we estimate
bank to post earnings of PKR2.97bn (EPS of PKR3.13) up by 18% over the preceding
year earnings of PKR2.51bn (EPS of PKR2.65). We are not expecting any dividend during
the quarter. The growth in earnings can be attributed to lower provisioning and greater
gain from investments. Recently ABL sold its shareholding in Khushali Bank to UBL led
consortium, hence realizing a one?time capital gain of PKR240mn. On a QoQ basis, profitability
is estimated to witness a jump of 18%, primarily backed by lower loan provisions.

1QCY12 Earnings at a Glance
• During the period under review the industry deposits grew by 0.8%QoQ. ABL is
likely to post a deposit growth of 4.7%QoQ and recapture the lost deposit share in
the 4QCY12. ABL’s cost of deposit is likely to decline marginally lower in contrast
with industry, mainly due to greater proportion of fixed deposits in overall deposits
• Advances for the industry witnessed a growth of 3.3%QoQ whereas Bank is likely
to register in a lower improvement in contrast with the industry. Greater growth
in deposits and lower growth in advances may result in a lower ADR of 64% in contrast
with preceding quarter level of 65.6%
• In the light of decline in industry lending rate on QoQ basis, we have assumed a
lower core markup return for the bank
• During the preceding quarter ABL booked loan loss provisions of PKR1.24bn. In the
light of industry provisioning for the 1QCY12, we estimate lower provision for ABL
in the current quarter
• Non?core income is likely to lower by 17%QoQ largely on account of greater dividend
income revived in the 4QCY11. In addition better stock market performance
and one time capital gain booked on Khushali bank transaction may result in an
improved gain on sale of securities

Recent Change – Minimum deposit rate at 6%
On the basis of our analysis, ABL earnings for CY12 would be lower by PKR0.30/share,
while average reduction in earnings for the forecasted period would be around 3%?
3.15%. the above mentioned change consequently impacted the target price by 4% to
PKR84.5/share.
Investment Perspective
At yesterday closing price of PKR63.62/share, the scrip offers a potential upside of 32.8%
to our revised December’12 target price of PKR84.5/share. ABL is presently trading at P/B
multiple of 1.42x, with an average forecasted period ROE of 25.75%. We recommend a
Buy on the stock.

hmfs
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 20, 2012, 10:17:04 PM
ABL 1Q CY12 - Result Preview
ABL’s board will meet on Apr 24’12 to approve the results for 1Q CY12 and we expect the
bank to announce earnings of PKR 2.74bn (EPS PKR 2.89), up by 9% YoY from PKR
2.51bn (EPS PKR 2.65) in the corresponding quarter of last year. Sequentially, earnings
are expected to rise by 13% from PKR 2.41bn (EPS PKR 2.55) in 4Q CY11.

3mo ending % 3mo ending %
PKR mn Dec11 Mar12E ? Mar11 Mar12E ?
NII 6,547 6,700 2 6,204 6,700 8
Non-markup income 2,442 1,672 32 1,447 1,672 16
Non-markup exp 3,689 3,910 6 3,501 3,910 12
PPOP 5,300 4,462 16 4,151 4,462 7
Provisioning expense 1,819 388 79 301 388 29
Net profit 2,412 2,735 13 2,511 2,735 9
EPS* (PKR) 2.55 2.89 2.65 2.89
DPS* (PKR) 2.27 - - -
Bonus (%) 10.00 - - -
Source: Company accounts, Global estimates, *adjusted for current number of shares

Gross income accretion expected at 9% YoY
NII for the bank is expected to increase by 8% YoY where 40bps decline in NIM is
expected to be more than offset by an estimated surge of 15% in average earning assets.
Non-markup income is likely to increase by 16% YoY on the back of higher fee &
commission and dividend income. However, non-mark up income is anticipated to decline
by 32% QoQ due to lower dividend income while we tag capital gains as key upside to our
estimates. On the other hand, sequential decline of 16% in PPOP is expected to be
augmented into 13% net profit growth as provisioning expense plummets by 79% QoQ.

global
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 23, 2012, 11:30:36 AM
ABL: 1QCY12 Result Preview

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 1QCY12 result tomorrow. We expect the bank to post NPAT of PkR2.79bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR3.00) in 1QCY12 vs. NPAT of PkR2.53bn (fully-diluted EPS: PkR2.67) in 1QCY11, translating into growth of 12%YoY. While NII growth is expected to be modest at 5%YoY (tighter NIMs) and loan provisions are expected to be up ~2x (ageing effect), double-digit earnings growth should be driven by higher investment income (ABL has pumped funds into ABL AMC while 21% rally in the KSE-100 in 1QCY12 could have led to booking of sizeable capital gains). This should also act to lower effective tax for ABL - expected at 28.9% in 1QCY12 vs. 34.7% in 1QCY11. ABL trades at a CY12F P/B of 1.24x and PER of 5.60x. At current levels, our revised target price of PkR69/share offers upside of 5.3% and implies an Accumulate stance.

akd
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 24, 2012, 12:13:30 PM
abl eps 3.22 dps 2
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 24, 2012, 04:01:32 PM
does abl normally give out dividends in the first quarter ? I thought they paid out semi annually .. 
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 09, 2012, 11:26:17 AM
AKD Daily

ABL: 1HCY12 Result Preview

The BoD of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to finalize the bank’s 1HCY12 result on Aug 16’12. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR6.06bn (EPS: PkR6.40) in 1HCY12 vs. NPAT of PkR5.07bn (EPS: PkR5.36) in 1HCY11, translating into strong 19%YoY growth. Alongside the result, we expect ABL to announce a cash dividend of PkR1/share to bring 1HCY12 payout to PkR3/share. Key highlights of 1HCY12 results are expected to be 1) 15%YoY decline in NII due to tighter NIMs, 2) impressive 39%YoY decline in provisions as ABL should continue to depict superior asset quality dynamics, 3) robust 74%YoY growth in non-interest income on higher dividends & capital gains and 4) flattish expenses. On a sequential basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR2.97bn (EPS: PkR3.14) in 2QCY12, up 17%YoY but down 4%QoQ. The sequential decline is likely to emanate from the non-interest income side although we note the potential for positive earnings surprises given ABL carries sizeable unrealized capital gains on its balance sheet. Having gained 47%CYTD (outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 17.5% in the process), ABL trades at a CY12F P/B of 1.36x and P/E of 6.2x. While our target price of PkR69/share implies a Neutral stance, we will look to revisit our investment case post release of detailed 1HCY12 accounts
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 13, 2012, 12:39:52 PM
Allied Bank (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 1HCY12 results on August 16, 2012 where we estimate earnings of PKR5.55bn (EPs of PKR5.86) in contrast with preceding year earnings of PKR5.03bn (EPS of PKR5.86) up by 10% over the preceding year earnings of PKR5.03bn (EP of PKR5.32). We are not expecting any cash dividend during the quarter. On QoQ basis earnings may witness an attrition of 18%QoQ to PKR2.5bn (EPs of PKR2.64) largely due to a onetime reversal in investment provision booked in the 1QCY12 amounting to PKR610mn. In the light of stock market return in the outgoing quarter we are not expecting any sizable investment reversal. The selloff of Khushali Bank is likely to boost income from capital gains to the tune of PKR208mn.

Investment Perspective
Over the weekend SBP cut the discount rate by 150bps, which is likely to impact the
banking spread negatively. Currently the YTD average banking spread is around 7.23%
which is likely to be reduced by 60bps?65bps during the current year. Hopefully with
lower interest rate loan loss provisioning may reduce providing some support to the bottom?
line. We are not expecting substantial uptick in credit off?take primarily due to structural
issues. Based on our provisional valuation, Our December’12 target price of
PKR84.5/share which may reduce to PKR75.10/share after incorporating the recent cut.
At current price level of PKR73.96, the stock offers an upside on merely 1.4%, hence we
recommend Neutral stance on the stock.

hmfs
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 15, 2012, 11:46:18 AM
ABL: EPS expected at Rs2.85 in 2Q2012
We expect ABL to post profit after tax of Rs2.7bn (EPS:
Rs2.85) in 2Q2012 compared to earnings of Rs3.0bn (EPS:
Rs3.22) in 1Q2012, a decline of 11%QoQ although up 7% on
a yearly basis. The QoQ decline is likely to be driven by
19%QoQ lower non interest income (major fall likely in
dividend income; down 35%QoQ). However, we do not rule
out any surprises on account of unrealized gains on its
balance sheet. Cumulative 1H2012 earnings for the bank are
expected at Rs5.7bn (EPS: Rs6.07), up 14%YoY. We also
anticipate a second interim cash dividend of Rs1-1.5 per
share along with the result (cumulative 1H2012 dividend at
Rs3.0-3.5 per share). At current levels the stock is trading at
2012E PE and PBV of 5.8x and 1.3, respectively and we
maintain our ‘Hold’ call on ABL.

ABL - Financial highlights
(Rs mn) 1H2012 1H2011 YoY?% 2Q2012 QoQ% YoY%
Mark-up int. earned 2 4,100 2 4,579 -2% 1 2,106 1% -1%
Mark-up int. paid 1 4,357 1 2,197 18% 7 ,247 2% 19%
Net int. income 9,743 12,382 -21% 4 ,860 0% -21%
Prov/write offs ( 98) 992 NM ( 58) 46% -109%
9 ,841 11,390 -14% 4 ,918 0% -11%
Non int. income 5 ,232 3 ,003 74% 2 ,343 -19% 51%
Operating exp. 6 ,836 6 ,828 0% 3 ,391 -2% 2%
PBT 8 ,237 7 ,564 9% 3,870 -11% 4%
Taxation 2 ,496 2 ,531 -1% 1 ,172 -11% -2%
PAT 5 ,742 5 ,033 14% 2 ,697 -11% 7%
Diluted EPS 6 .07 5 .32 14% 2 .85 -11% 7%
Source: Company accounts & JS Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 16, 2012, 12:13:55 PM
Abl eps 7.03 dps 1.5
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 18, 2012, 11:46:28 AM
ABL: 9MCY12 Result Preview

ABL is scheduled to announce its 9MCY12 result on Oct 22’12. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR9.2bn (EPS: PkR10.00) in 9MCY12 vs. NPAT of PkR7.8bn (EPS: PkR8.24) in the corresponding period last year, up 21%YoY. Alongside the result, we expect ABL to announce a cash dividend of PkR1/share, bringing cumulative 9MCY12 dividend to PkR4.5/share. Key highlights of 9MCY12F results are expected to be 1) a steep 20%YoY decline in NII, 2) a 63%YoY decline in total provisions, 3) doubling of interest income driven by dividend income and capital gains and 4) contained 6%YoY increase in non-interest expenses. On a sequential basis, ABL is expected to post NPAT of PkR2.7bn (EPS: PkR2.88) in 3QCY12, down 25%QoQ. The sequential decline is likely to arise due to lower NII (tighter NIMs even if the bank again switches from mutual funds to interest bearing securities) and lower non-interest income (shift away from money market mutual funds and lower capital gains coming from a high base). At current levels, ABL trades at a CY13F P/B of 1.11x and P/E of 5.5x where our target price of PkR78/share offers 15% upside. Accumulate

akd
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 18, 2012, 12:09:09 PM
ABL: 9M2012 EPS expected at Rs10.18, up 25%YoY
Following the general theme of the banking sector, ABL’s net interest income is
anticipated to decline (owing to lower spreads) by 19%YoY to Rs15.1bn in
9M2012. However, 1) impressive growth in non interest income (expected to be up
123%YoY) mainly on account of higher gains made on sale of securities in 2Q2012
and 2) lower cumulative provisions and a write off of Rs523mn (down 60%YoY) will
boost earnings in 9M2012. Resultantly, 9M earnings are likely to witness a growth
of 25%YoY to Rs9.6bn (EPS: Rs10.18). In 3Q alone, ABL is expected to post a
profit after tax of Rs3.0bn (EPS: Rs3.15), down 18%QoQ. The expected decline on
QoQ basis is primarily attributable to relatively flat net interest income and lower
non interest income (down 19%QoQ). Along with the result, we also anticipate a
third interim cash dividend of Rs1.5 per share taking the cumulative payout to Rs5
per share. The stock currently trades at 2012E PE and PBV of 5.0x and 1.2x
respectively and recommend a ‘Buy’ on the stock.

ABL - Earnings estimate
(Rs mn) 9M2012E 9M2011A YoY?% 3Q2012E YoY?% QoQ?%
Net Interest Income 1 5,070 18,624 -19% 5 ,109 -18% 1%
Prov/write offs 5 23 1,304 -60% 2 42 -23% -25%
Non Interest Income 10,061 4 ,508 123% 3,201 113% -19%
Profit Before Tax 1 3,628 11,628 17% 4 ,213 4% -17%
Profit After Tax 9,630 7,728 25% 2 ,977 10% -18%
EPS (Rs) 1 0.18 8 .17 25% 3 .15 10% -18%
Source: Company accounts & JS Research estimates
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 22, 2012, 02:37:07 PM
ABL 9M EPS 10.10 DPS 1
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on October 24, 2012, 05:21:50 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/6:banking/2870:other-income-makes-abls-day/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: mra901 on November 21, 2012, 04:03:56 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=038989

3rd interim dividend 10% dispatch
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 09, 2013, 01:36:38 PM
ABL: CY12 Result Preview                                                 

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its CY12 result on Feb 14'13. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to announce NPAT of PkR12.16bn (EPS: PkR12.85) in CY12 vs. NPAT of PkR10.26bn (EPS: PkR10.84) in CY11, translating into 19%YoY growth. Alongside the result, we expect ABL to announce a final cash dividend of PkR1/share to bring full-year payout to PkR5.5/share (payout ratio: 43%) as well as a10% bonus issue. Key drivers of CY12 profitability are expected to be 1) a 66%YoY decline in total provisions and 2) near doubling of non-interest income on the back of higher dividend income and capital gains, with these resulting in a likely lower effective tax rate. As a result, the bank should be able to weather the impact of sharply lower NII (lower NIMs amidst greater focus on dividend bearing securities vs. interest-bearing assets). In 4QCY12, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR2.52bn (EPS: PkR2.66), up 2%YoY/down 13%QoQ. Regarding the latter, the sequential decline will likely emanate from lower non-interest income. ABL trades at a CY13F P/B of 1.23x and P/E of 6.5x where our target price of PkR78/share offers limited 8% upside. That said, we will look to revisit our investment case post release of detailed CY12 accounts

akd
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 13, 2013, 10:36:35 PM
Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its financial results for the year on February 14, 2013 where we estimate the bank to post earnings of PKR11.92bn (EPS of PKR12.60) in contrast with preceding year earnings of PKR10.14bn (EPS of PKR10.71) depicting a growth of 18%YoY. We believe ABL is likely to declare a final cash dividend of 2.5/share taking cumulative dividend for the year to PKR7.0/share. Furthermore ABL may declare 10% bonus share along with the results. On QoQ basis, and profitability may contract by 9% backed by lower non-core income by 13%QoQ and 1% decline in core income. Reduction in net interest margin impacted the core income where it may reduce by26%YoY. The lowering of provision compensated well for the reduction in core margins which reduced the impact on core income. ABL continued to adopt cautious approach and did not avail any benefit of Forced Sale Value (FSV).     

Investment Perspective

With an estimated 5-year average ROE of 23% and earnings growth of 4.2%, ABL offers an upside of 26.6% to our Dec’13 target price of PKR93.46/Share. Despite being a Buy in terms of valuation, we recommend a cautious stance on the bank keeping in view the free float constraints along with earning volatility. Furthermore during CY13, we are projecting an earnings attrition of around 14.8% backed by reduction in NIM, which would affect earning yield.

hmfs
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Abid_ali on February 14, 2013, 01:27:13 PM
ABL annoucement if any member have any idea please
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 14, 2013, 02:55:53 PM
ABL annoucement if any member have any idea please

eps 12.34 dps 2 bonus 10%

http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=041164
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 18, 2013, 11:04:45 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/6:banking/3110:other-income-saves-the-day-for-abl/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on March 07, 2013, 02:10:04 PM
yeh ku ruka parha hai
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: riz on March 11, 2013, 12:01:28 PM
Seniors please guide hold or sell.yeh kb chalay ga?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 22, 2013, 04:09:08 PM
ABL: 1QCY13 Result Preview

ABL is scheduled to announce its 1QCY13 result on Apr 24'13. On a consolidated basis, we expect ABL to post NPAT of PkR2.45bn (EPS: PkR2.35) in 1QCY13 vs. NPAT of PkR3.09bn (EPS: PkR2.97) in 1QCY12, translating into a steep decline of 21%YoY but up by 9%QoQ. Alongside the result, we expect a cash dividend of PkR1/share (payout ratio: 43%). Key highlights of upcoming 1QCY13 results are expected to be 1) 16%YoY decline in NII on tighter NIMs, 2) a sharp 78%YoY decline in loan provisions as ABL maintains good asset quality, 3) modest 5%YoY increase in non-interest income primarily led by capital gains and dividend income and 4) contained 9%YoY increase in non-interest expenses. In this regard, considering ABL's CY12 accounts indicate that the bank has shifted out of money market mutual funds, possibly as limited window is available for tax arbitrage, we expect this change in asset mix to gradually translate into a shift in earnings stream for ABL in CY13 - with NII uptick to compensate for likely lower dividend income going forward. We expect some manifestation of this in 1QCY13 with NII projected to increase slightly on a QoQ basis while dividend income takes a hit.  At current levels, ABL trades at a CY13F P/B of 1.04x and P/E of 5.4x where our target price of PkR70/share offers 26.15% upside

akd
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 24, 2013, 10:57:17 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?id=4&nid=043494&pagesize=1&pageno=2

2.72 eps  ...
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 29, 2013, 10:33:10 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/6:banking/3273:allied-bank-silver-bullets-backfire/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Abid_ali on August 15, 2013, 11:02:13 AM

ABL looking good
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 19, 2013, 01:22:09 PM
Allied Bank: 2Q earnings to dip by 29%YoY and 9%QoQ

???? Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 2Q2013 result on
August 21, 2013 where we expect the bank’s earnings to decline by
29%YoY and 9%QoQ to Rs2.6bn (EPS: Rs2.47).
???? Weak core performance (NII expected to be down by 4%YoY and 2%QoQ)
and lower non interest income are expected to be the main factors
behind the decline in 2Q2013 bottom line.
???? Consequently, 1H2013 earnings are expected to clock in at Rs5.4bn (EPS:
Rs5.18), down 19%YoY.
???? We do not rule out a second interim cash dividend of Rs1.25 per share
along with the result. This will take the bank’s cumulative dividend for
2013 so far to Rs2.5 per share.
???? Currently ABL is trading at 2013 PE and PBV of 8.1x and 1.5x respectively
and offers a dividend yield of 8%. We maintain our ‘Hold’ call on the
stock with a Target Price of Rs73.

js
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 21, 2013, 04:39:35 PM
AKD Research - Off the Analyst's Desk Aug 21, 2013
ABL: 1HCY13 Result Review (Inline)

On a consolidated basis, ABL has posted NPAT of PKR5.59bn (EPS: PkR5.37) in 1HCY13 vs. NPAT of PkR6.74bn (EPS: PkR6.48) in 1HCY12, translating into a 17%YoY decline. This was inline with our projected 1HCY13 NPAT of PkR5.67bn (EPS: PkR5.45). Alongside, the result, a PkR1.25/share dividend was announced, bringing 1HCY13 payout to PkR2.50/share. 2QCY13 NPAT of PkR2.74bn (EPS: PkR2.63) was down by 4%QoQ.

Key highlights of ABL’s 1HCY13 result included 1) 4%YoY increase in NII with the bank shifting money from dividend-yielding mutual funds to interest bearing instruments, 2) very low credit costs indicating asset quality improvement, 3) a 29%YoY decline in non-interest income due to lower dividends and capital gains even as ‘other income’ has shot up and 4) contained 3%YoY increase in non-interest expenses.

Having gained 19%CYTD (vs. a 39%CYTD return by the KSE-100 Index), ABL trades at a CY13F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 8.2x. In this regard, while our target price of PkR81/share implies a Neutral stance we will look to revisit our investment case shortly.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 23, 2013, 12:06:45 PM
ABL-Income diversification calling (http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/3609:abl-income-diversification-calling/)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on September 19, 2013, 12:00:33 PM
ABL (Buy):
1HCY13 NPAT (EPS: PkR5.37) is disappointingly lower by 17%YoY but we feel outlook for ABL is much better. Specifically, while the bank will likely benefit from higher interest rates, strong asset quality (NPL ratio: 7.1%; coverage: 90%) implies incremental credit costs will likely be minimal. Although we trim our EPS estimates by 3% on average, rollover onto CY14F raises our target price for ABL to PkR95/share, implying 20% upside. In this regard, ABL trades at a CY14F P/B of 1.3x, P/E of 7.4x and D/Y of 6.9%, a valuation set that we believe is attractive given the bank's quality fundamentals.

AKD
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 21, 2013, 10:10:10 PM
ABL 3Q EPS anticipated at PKR 2.17

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce its financial results for 3Q CY13 on Oct 22’13, where we expect bank to post earnings of PKR 2.25bn (EPS: PKR 2.17), down by 18% YoY and 16% QoQ. On a cumulative basis, 9mo CY13 earnings of the bank are anticipated to clock in at PKR 7.78bn (EPS: PKR 7.48) against PKR 9.41bn (EPS: PKR 9.04) in the same period last year. Alongside the results, we expect the bank to declare a cash dividend of PKR 1/share.
Improving margins of the bank to push up Net Interest Income

Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank is expected to increase by 18% YoY in 3Q CY13 due to improving margins of the bank. Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank is anticipated to surge to 3.55% in 3Q CY13 against 3.35% in 3Q CY12. On the other hand, non Markup income of the bank is anticipated to decline by 51% in 3Q CY13 largely due to an expected decline in dividend income. A sharp decline in Non markup income will keep earnings of the bank under pressure in 3Q CY13.

Valuation
ABL is trading at a forward P/BV of 1.31x and our Dec14 TP of PKR 89/share offers an upside of 14%. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 8%. BUY!


Global Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 22, 2013, 01:05:53 PM
AKD Research - Off the Analyst's Desk Oct 22, 2013
______________________________________________

ABL:9MCY13 Result Review (Above Expectations)
On a consolidated basis, ABL has posted NPAT of PkR8.44bn (EPS: PkR8.11) in 9MCY13 vs. restated NPAT of PkR9.56bn (EPS: PkR9.18) in 9MCY12, translating into a 12%YoY decline. That said, the result was higher than our projected 9MCY13 NPAT of PkR8.01bn (EPS: PkR7.70) with a shifting asset mix leading to higher than expected interest income. Alongside the result, a dividend of PkR1.25/share was announced, bringing the cumulative 9MCY13 dividend to PkR3.75/share.
Key highlights of the 9MCY13 result included 1) strong 14%YoY NII growth, 2) 60%YoY decline in total provisions, 3) 32%YoY reduction in non-interest income due to lower dividends and capital gains and 4) contained 7%YoY increase in admin expenses which is commendable. In 3QCY13 alone, ABL posted NPAT of PkR2.85bn (EPS: PkR2.74), lower by 2%YoY but up by 4%QoQ.
Having gained 18%CYTD, ABL trades at a CY14F P/B of 1.3x, and P/E of 7.7x. At current levels, our target price of PkR85/share offers 8% upside alongside a forward D/Y of 7.0%. Accumulate!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 22, 2013, 11:31:16 PM
ABL: 9M2013 EPS stood at Rs8.01, down 11%YoY

(3Q2013, EPS=Rs2.70, Payout=12.5% cash (iii))

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its 3Q2013 result today posting a PAT of 2.8bn (EPS: Rs2.70), up 2%YoY and 4%QoQ. The result came above our EPS expectation of Rs2.50 on account of better Net Interest Income (NII). Consequently 9M2013 earnings clocked in at Rs8.3bn (EPS: Rs8.01), down 11%YoY. The bank also announced a third interim cash dividend of Rs1.25 per share taking the cumulative 9M2013 dividend to Rs3.75 per share.

On a surprising note, ABL 3Q NII grew by 35%YoY and 11%QoQ to Rs6.0bn, on the back of higher earnings assets. The bank bottom line was further supported by 43%YoY lower cumulative provisions in 3Q2013. That said 38%YoY and 1%QoQ lower non interest income (due to lower capital gains during the period) suppressed the bottom line growth.

At current levels the ABL is trading at 2013E PE and PBV of 8.0x and 1.5x, respectively. We maintain our old call on the stock given limited triggers for the core business.

JS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 23, 2013, 08:18:35 AM
Falling non-interest income erodes Allied Bank’s profit (http://tribune.com.pk/story/621113/corporate-results-falling-non-interest-income-erodes-allied-banks-profit/)

The company has also declared a third interim cash dividend at the rate of 12.5%, or Rs1.25 per share, for the year ending December 31, 2013. CREATIVE COMMONS
KARACHI: Allied Bank has posted after-tax profit of Rs8.3 billion for the first nine months of 2013, which is down 11% from the Rs9.4 billion profit the bank made in the corresponding period last year, according to a notice sent to the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on Tuesday.
The company has also declared a third interim cash dividend at the rate of 12.5%, or Rs1.25 per share, for the year ending December 31, 2013.
Earnings per share remained at Rs8 for the nine-month period compared to estimated Rs7.54 because of increased interest income amid improvement in net interest margins, according to Alternate Research analyst Umesh Kumar.
Interest income increased 8% year-on-year to Rs40.1 billion against Rs37 billion in the corresponding period last year mainly on the back of projected increase in advances for the bank by 4%.
Similarly, net interest margin of the bank increased 191 basis points to 40.81% compared to 38.9% in the first nine months of 2012. “This is likely on the back of upsurge in advances to deposit ratio (ADR) for the bank,” he added.
Provisions against loans and advances declined by a massive 73% year-on-year between January and September, as they clocked in at Rs374 million. In contrast, they amounted to Rs1.4 billion in the same period last year.
Non-interest income fell by 32% year-on-year, which eroded the bank’s earnings in the nine-month period. Also, dividend income of the bank plummeted 61.5% from Rs6.2 billion to Rs2.3 billion over the nine-month period.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on October 23, 2013, 06:54:13 PM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/3774:allied%E2%80%99s-achilles-heel/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 26, 2013, 04:39:25 AM
ABL Corporate Governance rating upgraded (http://www.brecorder.com/company-news/235:pakistan/1244752:abl-corporate-governance-rating-upgraded/?date=2013-10-26)

Allied Bank Corporate Governance Rating was upgraded from 'CGR-8++' to 'CGR-9', denoting 'very high level of corporate governance', by JCR-VIS Credit Rating Company Limited (JCR-VIS). This rating is based on the scale ranging from 'CGR-1' (lowest) to 'CGR-10' (highest).

Corporate governance ratings are based on evaluation of key governance areas of the rated institution, which include regulatory compliance; board oversight; management profile; self regulation; financial transparency and relationship with stakeholders. The upgraded rating confirms Allied Banks commitment towards best practices with respect to corporate governance, as also stipulated in the revised Code of Corporate Governance (CCG) introduced by the Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). This rating is a testament to Allied Banks continuous drive towards corporate excellence and improvement. Allied Bank remains committed to engendering a dynamic corporate culture in Pakistan that fosters growth and success.-PR
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 29, 2013, 08:27:31 PM
ABL staff refuses to serve other bank’s ATM holders (http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/business/29-Oct-2013/abl-staff-refuses-to-serve-other-bank-s-atm-holders)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on November 07, 2013, 08:22:57 AM

ABL outshines peers

The top line of the mighty five did wonders in 3Q CY13 but remained unable to muster growth for the bottom line. First off, hats off to the fifth largest bank-–ABL, for staggering top line growth of 53 percent, over the previous quarter. By comparison, MCB and NBP looked unimpressive on this front during 3Q CY13. The marvellous top line growth for ABL came on the heels of investments which boasted a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12 percent in 3Q CY13; leaving advances in the lurch as they slid seven percent over the same period.

Except for ABL, the other four big banks shunned away investments in 3Q CY13, presumably given an uncertain discount rate outlook since country’s entry into an IMF programme. This plopped down their cumulative Investment-to-Deposit Ratio (IDR) to 53 percent in 3Q CY13 from 55 percent in the previous quarter. Conversely, ADR moved up a tad.

On the deposit mobilization front, UBL stood out with three percent growth over the previous quarter; followed by HBL. NBP remained dormant in this pursuit as its deposits fell 11 percent, during the same period, although it undertook significant borrowings during the quarter. On a cumulative basis, deposits with the big five banks dipped by three percent, compared to 2Q CY13.

Despite slow deposit mobilisation, higher proportion of saving deposits is drove up cumulative mark-up expense for the industry giants, setting down their spread ratio to 45 percent in 3Q CY13 from 47 percent in the 2Q CY13. However, in real terms, Net Interest Margin (NIM) grew five percent in this period.

The big five banks sustained their asset quality during the third quarter; UBL remained the most efficient in this domain as its Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) fell by five percent compared to 2Q CY13. Sustained asset quality kept the infection ratio constant and resulted in a substantial drop in cumulative provisioning expense. Except for ABL, no other big bank booked provisioning during 3Q CY13.

ABL booked a massive provisioning expense of Rs310 million in 3Q CY13 against Rs31 million in the previous quarter even as its NPLs ticked down mainly because the bank has not realised the benefit of Forced Sale Value (FSV) allowed by SBP while booking provisions. Hence, ABL has the highest coverage ratio of 92 percent as of quarter-end.

Non-mark-up heads proved to be the culprit this time marring the cumulative bottom line for the big five banks. But, ABL shines on this front too, recording a marvellous quarter-on-quarter growth of 48 percent in its non-mark-up income. UBL’s non-mark-up income also managed to post growth in this period albeit not in terms comparable to ABL.

The bottom line of the big five banks endured the pain of weak non-mark-up heads and trimmed by four percent, when compared to the previous quarter. On an individual basis, NBP took the greatest hit as its bottom line dropped 89 percent, compared to the previous quarter while ABL stood out with a fabulous 51 percent growth in its bottom line in 3Q CY13, compared to the previous quarter.

Going forward, with discount rate geared to rise, the top line of the banking sector may gain some impetus; however, the magnitude of growth will also greatly depend on the right asset mix and efforts to perk up earning assets. NBP should take lesson from its 3Q CY13 whereby its lethargy towards earning assets wreaked havoc on its bottom line.

While the discount rate hike is expected to buttress the top line, it can mean trouble for spreads given SBP’s recent directive of linking Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) on saving deposits to the discount rate. MCB, with the highest proportion of 53 percent of saving deposits, is likely to bear the greatest hit. How the big five banks turn the odds in their favour will be interesting to see.

=======================================
SELECTED PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
=======================================3QCY13   2QCY13
=======================================
Infection Ratio            13%      13%
Coverage Ratio             85%      83%
IDR                        53%      55%
ADR                        47%      45%
CASA                       71%      69%
ROA                       0.5%     0.5%
ROE                         4%       4%
Spread Ratio               45%      47%
---------------------------------------
Source: Company Accounts
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on November 07, 2013, 08:23:55 AM
Allied Bank corporate governance rating upgraded

Allied Bank added another feather to its cap, when their Corporate Governance Rating was upgraded from 'CGR-8++' to 'CGR-9', denoting 'very high level of corporate governance', by JCR-VIS Credit Rating Company Limited (JCR-VIS). This rating is based on the scale ranging from 'CGR-1' (lowest) to 'CGR-10' (highest).

Corporate governance ratings are based on evaluation of key governance areas of the rated institution, which include regulatory compliance; board oversight; management profile; self regulation; financial transparency and relationship with stakeholders. The upgraded rating confirms Allied Banks commitment towards best practices with respect to corporate governance, as also stipulated in the revised Code of Corporate Governance (CCG) introduced by the Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan.

This rating is a testament to Allied Banks continuous drive towards corporate excellence and improvement. Allied Bank remains committed to engendering a dynamic corporate culture in Pakistan that fosters growth and success.-PR
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on December 13, 2013, 08:05:48 PM
Allied Bank Limited compelling fundamentals to drive value


Attractive Valuation: Through a blend of DDM and RIVM methods, we estimated Dec14 TP of the bank at PKR106/sh. At this level, the scrip offers a decent upside of 16% along with a dividend yield of 7%. Looking at the healthy total return of 23%, we recommend a Buy stance on the scrip.  As of yesterday close, the scrip is trading at forward PBV and PER multiple of 1.6x and 7.1x respectively

Margins expansion is on the cards: Amid monetary tightening, the asset yield during 2014E is likely to stand at 11.7% (up by 171bps YoY) along with the cost of funds of 6.4% (up by 93bps YoY) translating into NIMs of 4.8% in 2014E as compared to 4.1% in 2013E. Higher NIMs will expand funded income by 30% YoY to PKR30bn. Improvement in margins coupled with notable growth in non-funded income (PKR13.5bn, up by 24% YoY) is likely to help the bank to post earnings growth of 17.5% to PKR13.4bn (EPS: PKR12.9/sh) in 2014E (5yr CAGR of 15% 2013E-2018E).

Onset to reap benefits from earlier branch expansion: The bank has added around 101 branches in last 3 years and boosted its market share in deposits from 6.8% in 2011 to 8.0% in 9M2013. On the back of aggressive competition in fetching customer deposits, we believe ABL is likely to maintain its prevailing market share in the long run

Convincing asset quality indicators: Significant downward revision in the bank’s NPLs (8% YoY in 9M2013.) and higher coverage ratio (92% in 9M2013) will keep asset quality indicators intact. Following a declining trend in industry NPLs, we believe, NPLs of the bank will also hover on the lower side primarily due to its stringent credit policy frame work and vigilance on recoveries

NIMs compression started to fade amid monetary tightening

The recent round of the monetary tightening (50bps hike in Sep13 and Nov13) and another expected 50?100bps increase in upcoming MPS (Jan14) is likely to expand already compressed margins of the bank. This cumulative increase of 150bps?200bps in policy rate will swell asset yields of the bank to 11.7% in 2014E as compared to 10.0% in 2013E, rushing forward by 171bps. We have anticipated average discount rate during 2014 to stand at 11.4%, up by 188bps YoY. On a flip side, cost of funds is also anticipated to surge by 93bps to 6.4% in 2014E primarily because pegging of minimum deposit rate to repo rate (50bps lower than repo rate). Thus, NIMs expansion will be restricted to 4.8% in 2014E from 4.1% in 2013E, up by 66bps. We believe, discount rate will remain elevated in forthcoming periods on the back of expected inflationary pressures in the economy.

BMA Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on January 10, 2014, 09:53:02 AM
ABL
The PC Board decided to sell the remaining 10% government shares in ABL. The anticipated minimum income is Rs10 billion. In 1991, the PML-N government had sold 51% shares of ABL at Rs971.6 million
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 03, 2014, 12:27:56 PM
ABL: 2013 PAT to come off by 7%YoY to Rs10.8bn
We expect ABL to witness a 7%YoY decline in its 2013 bottom line registering a
PAT of Rs10.8bn (EPS: Rs10.38). Despite expected NII growth of 19%YoY in
2013, lower non mark-up income (due to lower dividend income in 2013) is likely to
pose a drag on earnings. Contrary to the general theme in the industry, ABL’s NII is
expected to grow on the back of higher earning assets (up 5%YoY). On a quarterly
basis, 4Q2013 earnings are likely dip by 12%YoY (though up 9%YoY) to Rs2.5bn
(EPS: Rs2.37). We eye soft 4Q earnings due to impact of higher cost of saving
deposits during the last quarter. Meanwhile, we do not rule out a final cash
dividend of Rs2.0-2.25/share, taking cumulative 2013 dividend to Rs6.0-
6.25/share. We also do not rule out a bonus issue by the bank as its paid up capital
is only slightly above the minimum capital requirement of Rs10bn set by the State
Bank of Pakistan. Trading at 2014E P/E and P/BV of 8.3x and 1.6x respectively, we
maintain our ‘Hold’ stance on ABL with a target price of Rs78.

ABL 2013 financial highlights
(Rs mn) 2013E 2012A YoY?% 4Q2013E YoY?% QoQ?%
Mark-up int earned 5 4,471 49,503 10% 1 4,383 15% 3%
Mark-up int paid 3 2,570 31,142 5% 8 ,841 4% 11%
Net Interest Income 2 1,900 18,361 19% 5 ,541 40% -7%
Prov/write offs 681 651 5% 370 NM 33%
Non interest income 9,766 13,794 -29% 2,512 -21% 7%
Operating exp 1 6,151 15,634 3% 4,567 11% 9%
Profit Before Tax 14,834 15,870 -7% 3 ,116 -1% -19%
Taxation 4,025 4,195 -4% 6 49 -25% -37%
Profit After Tax 1 0,810 11,676 -7% 2 ,468 9% -12%
Diluted EPS (Rs) 1 0.38 11.22 -7% 2 .37 9% -12%
Source: Company accounts and JS Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 06, 2014, 10:21:38 PM
 


ABL: PKR2.25/- DPS; 10pc bonus expected in 4QFY13

Allied Bank Ltd. (ABL) is all set to announce its FY13 financial result on Feb 11, 2014. We foresee ABL reporting a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR10,825mn (EPS: PKR10.40) during FY13 against a PAT of PKR11,676mn (EPS: PKR11.22) during the corresponding period last year, down 7pc. We also foresee ABL announcing a final cash dividend per share (DPS) of PKR2.25 during 4QFY13 together with a 10pc bonus issue thus pushing FY13 DPS to PKR6.0/- (FY13 Dividend Payout: 58pc) against FY12 DPS of PKR6.50/- (FY12 Dividend Payout: 58pc).

… We foresee ABL announcing FY14 profit after tax of PKR12,035mn (EPS: PKR11.55) together with dividend per share of PKR7/-. Today, (Feb 06, 2014), the ABL scrip closed at PKR87.18/- implying FY14 PER (x) of 7.55x and dividend yield of 8pc. Our Fair Value for the ABL scrip stands at PKR82.80/- implying that the scrip is currently trading at above its fair value. We thus have a ‘SELL’ stance for the ABL scrip at current levels!

AHCML
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 07, 2014, 05:09:59 PM


Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Earnings to decline by 3%YoY

*          We expect the bank to post profit after tax of PKR11.3bn (EPS: PKR10.82) in 2013, posting a decline of 3%YoY

*          We also expect that the board is likely to announce final cash dividend of PKR2.75/sh, taking total dividend of 2013 to PKR6.5/sh

*          Consecutive 50bps each hike in DR in Sep13 and Nov13 led the bank to register Interest Income of PKR15.2bn in 4Q2013, up by 9% QoQ from PKR13.9bn in 3Q2013

*          However, earnings will be restricted on account of increased cost of deposits to PKR7.6bn in 4Q2013 (up by 10% QoQ)

*          Lower non-core income on the back of subdued dividend income and rising admin expenses to drag overall earnings

*          We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on the scrip with Dec14 TP of PKR105/sh providing a total return of 28% (capital gain: 20% + dividend yield: 8%)

*          At yesterday’s close, the scrip is trading at 2014E PBV and PE multiple of 1.6x and 6.8x respectively

BMA
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 07, 2014, 05:11:45 PM
Result Preview - CY13

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its financial results for the year on February 11, 2014 where we estimate the bank to post earnings of PKR11.54bn (EPS of PKR11.09/share) lower by merely 1% in contrast with preceding year. Along with financial results, we anticipate ABL is likely to declare a final cash dividend of PKR2.25-2.5/share along with 10% stock dividend. On a Q/Q basis, earnings are likely to scale up by merely 7% on account of improvement in non-core income by 12% while core net interest income witnesses a marginal move. In line with the industry, Loan loss provisions are likely to witness a contraction of nearly 50% on Y/Y basis which boosted the core income. Furthermore ABL in the outgoing year, improved its CASA based deposits by around 2% consequently it may reduce the cost of funds.       

Investment Perspective

With an estimated 5-year average ROE of 22.4% and earnings growth of 7%, ABL is trading at a discount of 5.73% to our Dec’14 target price of PKR92.12/Share. Keeping in view the limited upside potential and likely NIM contraction on the back of lower core margins and marginal growth In advances, we recommend an Accumulate stance on the stock.

HMFS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 10, 2014, 10:19:22 PM
Slide in earnings by 6% likely; Rs2.25/share cash dividend expected

Though the net interest income of the bank is expected to grow during the year but owing to likely significant decline in non interest income and higher provisions, we forecast that ABL earnings to decline by 6.4% YoY in CY13 to Rs 10,929 million  (EPS: Rs 10.50) as compared to a Profit after taxation (PAT) of Rs 11,676 million  (EPS: PKR 11.22) in CY12. The net interest income is expected to grow by 21% YoY in CY13 to Rs 22,218 million however due to lower dividend income and capital gain, the non interest income is likely to reduce by 29.7%YoY in CY13 to Rs 9,701 million. However in 4QCY13 alone the earnings to rise by 14.2% YoY to Rs 2,587 million (EPS: Rs 2.48) as against Rs 2,265 million (EPS: Rs 2.18) in 4QCY12 due to tremendous hike in net interest income. In addition to that the corporate results are likely to be accompanied with a final cash dividend of Rs2.25/share taking the total cash divined in CY13 to Rs6/share along with 10% bonus shares.


We Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: tahirdxb on February 11, 2014, 12:30:30 PM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/50641-1.gif)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 11, 2014, 01:02:58 PM
boost in eps compared with last year is mostly due to tax adjustment
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 11, 2014, 06:18:24 PM
ABL: 2013 EPS stood at Rs14.07, up 26%YoY

(4Q2013, EPS=Rs6.28, Payout=15% cash (f))

 
February 11, 2014 ( JS Research )
 
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its 2013 result today posting a PAT of 14.6bn (EPS: Rs14.07), up 26%YoY. The result came above our EPS expectation of Rs10.38 on account of tax benefits availed from previous years of Rs4.1bn. Excluding this one time benefit earnings come down to Rs10.6bn (EPS: Rs10.14). The bank also announced a final cash dividend of Rs1.5 per share (cumulative 2013 dividend of Rs5.25 per share) and a bonus issue of 10%.
 
On a surprising note, ABL 2013 Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 18%YoY to Rs21.7bn, on the back of higher earnings assets. Similarly, bank provisions and write offs also came down by 13%YoY which boosted the bottom line. Major support to bottom line came in from tax reversals of Rs4.1bn. However, (1) lower non-interest income of Rs9.6bn, down 30%YoY and (2) higher operating expenses of Rs15.9bn, up 2%YoY somewhat curtailed the bottom line growth.
 
At current levels the ABL is trading at 2014F PE and PBV of 8.2x and 1.6x, respectively. We maintain our hold call on the stock given limited triggers for the core business.

JS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 20, 2014, 06:36:28 PM
ABL: Earnings tweaked, TP raised to Rs89 – maintain ‘Hold’

?  Allied Bank Limited (ABL) posted above-expected 4Q2013 earnings of
Rs6.5bn (EPS: Rs6.28), up 189%YoY and 132%QoQ. Positive surprise
was mainly led by tax reversals of Rs4.1bn booked in 4Q2013 pertaining
to tax losses in years 1996-97 to 2003.
?  In 2013 (1) Net Interest Income (NII), up 18%YoY despite a low interest
rate environment and (2) lower provisions and write-offs (Rs565mn, down
13%YoY), boosted earnings by 6%YoY to Rs14.6bn (EPS: Rs14.07), up
26%YoY.
?  Post 2013 results, we tweak up our earning estimates for ABL over
2014F/15F/16F by 6%/8%/11%. In tandem, we also roll forward our
valuation by 12-months. Our new Target Price for the bank stands at
Rs89 (up from Rs78 earlier).
?  That said, with no major near term triggers for the bank’s core business
in sight, we maintain our ‘Hold’ call on ABL where the stock is currently
trading at 2014F PE and PBV of 7.9x and 1.3x respectively.

JS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on March 28, 2014, 09:39:25 PM
ABL gives 52.5 percent cash, 10 percent bonus

The 68th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Allied Bank was held on Thursday, and chaired by Mohammad Naeem Mukhtar, Chairman of Board of Directors along with the other directors of the Bank, the representative from SBP, various institutional investors as well individual shareholders and external auditor of the Bank, who were present in the meeting.

The shareholders adopted the annual accounts of the Bank for the year 2013 and accorded approval for the payment of final cash dividend at 15 percent, ie Rs 1.50 per share. This amount was in addition to the interim dividend of 37.50 percent already paid, thus increasing the total cash dividend for the year 2013 to 52.50 percent. The shareholders also approved issuance of 10 percent bonus shares.

The shareholders appreciated consistent performance of the Bank. Total assets of the Allied Bank have increased to Rs 734 billion (15.9 percent), while Tier-I Equity improved by over 22 percent to Rs 54 billion at the year-end. Despite the tough economic conditions of the country, the Bank has earned Rs 14.643 billion profit after tax (PAT) which is 26 percent higher than the previous year''s PAT of Rs 11.641 billion.

The Bank also witnessed healthy YOY increase in its Deposits and Investments (net) portfolio by 18 percent and 36 percent respectively. During the year 2013, mark-up/ interest income of the Bank increased by 9.5 percent over the previous year, whereas Non-Performing Loans decreased by six percent to Rs 19.424 billion.

In view of the prudent lending policy and recovery efforts of the Bank, it has one of the lowest infection ratios (6.8 percent) in the industry with one of the highest coverage ratio (93.9 percent) among its peers. The Bank''s standalone Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) stood around 17.85 percent which is considerably higher than SBP requirement of 10 percent.

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (Pacra) has maintained the long-term rating of Allied Bank to ''AA+'' (Double A Plus) and short-term rating of ''A1+'' (highest). JCR-VIS upgraded the Corporate Governance Rating to ''CGR 9'' for Allied Bank denoting high level of corporate governance. With a vast network of over 950 branches providing online services in over 300 cities and towns, supported by one of the largest network of 800 ATMs spread across the country, Allied Bank is one of the major banks in the country.-PR
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on April 02, 2014, 06:43:44 PM
ABL TP Revision

We revisit our earnings case for ABL post CY13 results and raise our earnings estimates by 5% on average across the investment horizon. Together with slightly higher payout projections, this raises our revised target price for ABL to PkR100/share. While there is limited upside on offer at current levels, we would take any dip in share price as an opportunity to build positions in this quality name where our positive outlook is premised upon a forecasted double-digit NPAT CAGR alongside a strong balance sheet (95% provisioning coverage, CAR: 17%+). A sizeable capital gains backlog of more than PkR9.9bn (18% of Tier-I equity) on listed equity instruments also points towards potential +ve earnings surprises going forward. Having gained 17.3%CYTD, ABL trades at a CY14F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 9.1x where our revised target price implies a Neutral stance.

CY13 result review: On a consolidated basis, ABL posted NPAT of PkR14.78bn (diluted EPS: PkR12.91) in CY13, up by 25%YoY. This increase was largely due to hefty tax reversals where pre-tax CY13 profits are lower by 7%YoY. Key highlights of the CY13 result included: 1) 18%YoY NII growth with the bank shifting to direct investment in GoP securities, 2) 13%YoY decline in total provisions, 3) sharp 30%YoY decline in non-interest income on lower dividends, 4) contained 6%YoY increase in admin expenses and 4) an effective tax rate of just 1% vs. an effective tax rate of 26% in CY12. In 4QCY13 alone, ABL posted NPAT of PkR6.35bn (diluted EPS: PkR5.54), up by 184%YoY/123%QoQ. On a pre-tax basis, 4QCY13 NPAT was lower by 20%QoQ as NII fell sharply by 11%QoQ on tighter NIMs.

Double-digit NPAT CAGR: While reported CY14F earnings for ABL are projected to clock in lower by 18%YoY to PkR12.14bn (EPS: PkR10.60) in CY14F, this masks an impressive 15%+YoY increase in pre-tax profits. Over the medium-term, we see ABL having the capacity to deliver a 12% NPAT CAGR driven by strong balance sheet growth (13% p.a.), stable NIMs (~3.7%) and limited provisioning charges. Regarding the latter, ABL’s provision coverage is close to 95% where we see net provisioning reversals in CY14F to be followed up by credit costs of ~0.2% across the medium-term.

Capital gains backlog: At the end-Dec’13, ABL had an unrealized capital gains backlog of PkR9.92bn on its listed equity investments (18% of Tier-I Equity) which we believe the bank will likely look to monetize over the medium-term, potentially leading to +ve earnings surprises. In this regard, even the backlog of capital gains on non-strategic holdings is estimated in excess of PkR3bn. This should allow non-interest income to continue depicting growth even as dividend income may now be subdued with the bank shifting towards direct investment in GoP securities as opposed to routing funds through the money market earlier.

Investment perspective: ABL has managed to deliver a 29% NPAT CAGR over the last 5yrs, testament to the ability of the management to navigate effectively through tough times. The outlook for the next 5yrs remains relatively strong where uptick to base-case Tier-I ROE of close to 21% can arise if ABL pushes its dividend payout higher (40% on average) where 17%+ CAR certainly provides the space. ABL trades at a CY14F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 9.1x where our revised target price of PkR100/share implies a Neutral stance.

AKD
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on April 24, 2014, 10:18:13 PM
ABL: 1QCY14 Earnings Preview -
 We expect the bank to announce NPAT of PKR3.2bn (EPS: PKR2.8) depicting a growth of 14%YoY as compared to PKR2.8bn (EPS: PKR2.47) recorded in 1QCY13. While on a sequential basis, the net earnings are expected to decline by 49%QoQ primarily due to one-off tax reversal recorded during 4QCY13.

BMA
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on April 26, 2014, 09:38:47 AM
ABL posts Rs 3.2 billion profit after tax in 1Q2014

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its 1Q2014 result posting a Profit After Tax (PAT) of Rs 3.2 billion (EPS: Rs 2.83), up by 15 percent YoY. The bank posted improved results due to reversals in provisions and write offs and slightly higher gain on sale of securities. The bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of 12.50 percent or Rs 1.25 per share.

ABL's 1Q2014 Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 15 percent YoY to Rs 5.8 billion up from Rs 5 billion, while net non-interest income surged by 11 percent to Rs 2.79 billion end of first quarter of CY14 compared to Rs 2.5 billion in the same period of CY13. However, banks operating expenses reached Rs 4 billion mark, up 12 percent YoY. ABL's profit before tax inched up by 15 percent to Rs 4.5 billion end of first quarter of CY14 up from Rs 3.9 billion in corresponding period of CY13.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on April 29, 2014, 11:30:47 PM
ABL must have enjoyed the PIB feast offered by the fiscal authority in 1QCY14 as a glance at its past financial statements speaks volume of its risk-averse lending stance.

While the detailed financial statements for 1QCY14 are not yet released, the balance sheet figures as of December 2013 show that ABL’s advances dropped by 2 percent year-on-year while investments grew by a staggering 36 percent year-on-year.

Banking on its asset-base history, one can safely assume that a healthy 18 percent year-on-year growth in the top line in 1QCY14 is also the result of huge investments made by the bank particularly in PIB that offered lucrative returns. One of the features that set ABL apart is that it holds the lowest proportion of saving deposits in its deposit mix as of December 2013. We await the detailed financial statements to decipher the recent breakup of deposits, however, the 20 percent year-on-year growth in markup expenses in 1QCY14 can assumed to be the result of lagged effect of liability side re-pricing or perhaps ABL posted an overwhelming deposit growth during the period.

With the lowest infection ratio of 7 percent and the highest coverage ratio of 95 percent among the top-tier banks as of December 2013, the reversals worth Rs37 million booked by the bank in 1QCY14 make fair sense. Non-mark-up income also grew on the back of growth in fee/commission income, dividend income and capital gains. Besides, the small component of “other income” also realized multifold growth in 1QCY14. The higher markup expenses somewhat curtailed the growth, however, the bottomline ended up growing by 15 percent year-on-year in 1QCY14. The result was also accompanied with an interim cash dividend of Rs1.25 per share. Going forward, with a cleaner asset portfolio, adequate provisioning and low proportion of saving deposits, ABL is on a strong footing. However, a little focus on private sector advances will yield an added benefit on ABL’s spreads.

=============================================================
ALLIED BANK LIMITED (CONSOLIDATED P & L)
=============================================================
Rs (mn)                              1QCY14   1QCY13      Chg
=============================================================
Markup Earned                        14,992   12,729      18%
Markup Expenses                       9,229    7,720      20%
Net Markup Income                     5,763    5,009      15%
Provisioning/ (Reversal)                (37)     (43)    -14%
Net Markup Income after provisions    5,800    5,053    14.8%
Non Mark-up / Interest Income         2,894    2,588      12%
Operating Revenues                    8,694    7,640      14%
Non Mark-up / Interest Expenses       4,090    3,649      12%
Profit Before Taxation                4,604    3,991      15%
Taxation                              1,318    1,141      16%
Profit After Taxation                 3,286    2,850      15%
(Loss) / earnings per share            2.87     2.49
-------------------------------------------------------------
Source: KSE Notice
=============================================================
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: ksewire on May 18, 2014, 12:21:26 AM
http://kse-reports.blogspot.com/2014/05/allied-bank-limited-1qcy14-post-result.html
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on June 11, 2014, 05:40:02 PM
AKD Daily
 
ABL: Positives largely priced in

 
Following strong 1QCY14 results (EPS: PkR2.87; +15%YoY), we raise estimates across our forecast horizon by 10% on average which, together with rollover, results in a Jun’15 target price of PkR140/share for ABL. This TP revision comes on the back of better than expected 1QCY14 results amidst a shift into higher-yielding PIBs. At the same time, we reiterate the bank’s strong medium-term outlook premised upon superior asset quality, relatively cost efficient operations, strong capital base and sizeable unrealized capital gains backlog. These factors should drive a 13% NPAT CAGR over the next 5yrs, resulting in an average Tier-I ROE of 22.0% (total equity ROE: 18.8%). That said, considering the stock has already gained 59%CYTD to trade at a CY15F P/B of 1.8x and P/E of 10.4x, we believe positives are largely priced in where our revised TP  offers limited 6.5% upside. That said, we flag potential increase in payout ratio as a key upside risk.
1QCY14 result review: ABL posted consolidated NPAT of PkR3.29bn (EPS: PkR2.87) in 1QCY14 vs. NPAT of PkR2.85bn (EPS: PkR2.49) in 1QCY13, translating into 15%YoY growth. Alongside, the bank announced a dividend of PkR1.25/share. Key result highlights included: 1) 15%YoY NII growth on a shift into interest bearing assets, 2) net provisioning reversals of PkR37mn, 3) 12%YoY non-interest income growth on higher capital gains even as fx income posted a surprising loss and 4) 11%YoY increase in non-interest expenses.
Strong medium-term outlook: We see ABL delivering a 13% NPAT CAGR across the medium-term with immediate impetus to earnings provided by aggressive shift into PIBs inline with the rest of the banking sector. Specifically, ABL’s stock of PIBs has almost tripled in the last quarter to PkR83.9bn (11.2% of assets vs. 3.9% of assets in Dec’13). At the same time, we remain confident over low credit costs (< 0.2%) and a relatively efficient Cost/Income ratio sustaining across the medium-term. Together with focus on fee income and opportune realization of capital gains backlog, we see ABL transforming into a PkR20bn+ NPAT bank within the next 5yrs.
The case for premium valuations: During CY05-CY07, ABL traded at an average P/B multiple of 2.5x vs. an average ROE (total equity) of 24.6%. Within this backdrop, we believe a projected 5yr ROE of ~19% justifies a P/B multiple of 2.6x for ABL. Although this will represent a premium over the broader sector, we believe ABL’s valuations are justified due to strong asset quality (NPL ratio: 7.0%; coverage: 93%), strong capital base (CY13 CAR: 18.0%) and sizeable capital gains backlog (CY13: PkR9.9bn on listed shares; 14.9% of equity), together by canny management.                      .
Investment perspective: ABL has gained 59%CYTD, outperforming the Index by 16% in the process to trade at a CY15F P/B of 1.8x and P/E of 10.4x. With strong price performance already in the bag, we believe incremental share price gains for ABL may take place at a steadier pace where our revised TP of PkR140/share offers limited 6.5% upside. That said, potential for further gains exists should ABL utilize its CAR buffer to bump up its payout ratio vs. our base-case projection of 45% across the next 5yrs..
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 04, 2014, 03:41:05 PM


Allied Bank Limited (ABL): 1HCY14 Earnings Preview

 

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce financial results for 1HCY14 on Aug 5’14. We expect the bank to post earnings of PKR6.9bn (EPS: PKR6.0) in 1HCY14, up by a notable 24.3%YoY. The robust growth in earnings is primarily due to i) higher net interest income at PKR12.3bn (up 19%YoY) on account of margin expansion due to higher investment in PIBs and 67bps increase in average 6M KIBOR to 10.2% during the period, ii) expected continuation of provision reversals to the tune of PKR87mn, and iii) sturdy non-funded income of PKR12.3bn, up 19.1%YoY led by a 18.5%YoY increase in fee and commission to PKR5.8bn as well as recovery in fx income of PKR200mn. On a quarterly basis, we expect the earnings to clock in at PKR3.6bn (EPS: PKR3.2), registering a growth of 12%QoQ. Along with the results, we also expect the board to announce second interim dividend of PKR1.25/sh taking cumulative 1HCY14 dividends to PKR2.5/sh. Going forward, the strategic shift in asset mix with higher PIB holdings along with a gradual uptick in the demand for  private sector credit in the long run is likely to boost future earnings where we expect a 5yr bottom line CAGR of 11%. Thus, we continue advocating a Buy call on the scrip with TP of PKR146/sh. At yesterday’s close, the stock is offering an upside of 17.8% alongside dividend yield of 4.4%. ABL currently trades at Dec’14 P/B and P/E of 1.9x and 10.3x respectively.

BMA
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 04, 2014, 03:44:08 PM
ABL : Result Preview - 1HCY14

Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) is scheduled to announce its financial results for the 1HCY14 on August 5, 2014 where we expect the bank to post earnings of PKR7.1bn (Diluted EPS of PKR6.21) up by 29% Y/Y. On a QoQ basis, ABL profitability is likely to improve by 19% to PKR3.9bn (EPS of PKR3.38). Along with financial results, we expect the ABL to payout cash dividend in the range of PKR1.25-1.50/share. Improvement in Net Interest Margin (NIM) was largely attributed to enhanced exposure in long term bonds while we continue to believe the bank to adopt a cautious approach towards advances. Consequent of cautious approach towards lending, provisions are estimated to remain subdued. 

Investment Perspective

With an estimated 5-year average ROE of 23.8% with an earnings growth of 9%, ABL is trading at a premium of 1% to our earlier June’14 target prices of PKR122/share. Possibly with lower provisioning estimates along with better Non-Core Income, the target price may escalate upwards by nearly 7%-8% (provisionally). We will shortly update our target price for ABL after receiving the 1HCY14 results.

HMFS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 05, 2014, 12:09:24 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/056225.pdf
3.37 eps dps 1.5

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 05, 2014, 07:20:52 PM
Allied Bank Ltd. (ABL) +0.90% (122.04) posted consolidated NPAT of PkR7,195mn (EPS: PkR6.28) in 1HCY14 vs. NPAT of PkR5,587mn (EPS: PkR4.88) in 1HCY13, translating into stellar growth of 29%YoY. The result was above our projected 1HCY14 NPAT of PkR6,581mn (EPS: PkR5.75) due to higher than projected capital gains. Alongside the result, ABL announced dividend of PkR1.50/share, bringing 1HCY14 payout to PkR2.75/share.

AKD
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on August 05, 2014, 10:07:49 PM
Very Good results, Chal kiu nahi raha yeh ghora? :ohmy:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on August 06, 2014, 06:17:57 AM
ABL in fine form

August 06, 2014 BR Research0 CommentsE-mailPrintPDF
The meal was there for the taking and it appears Allied Bank Limited (ABL) made a good feast of it. Its half-yearly profits were driven by the top line, a deviation from the recent trend. Governments never-ending borrowing appetite was fed well by the banks and ABL must not have shied away from it. The 21 percent year-on-year top line growth shows just that.

ABL has long been adjusting its asset-mix towards the favoured investments in government securities. And the ridiculously lucrative returns on PIBs were too delicious to miss. Advances have stayed on the flattish side for quite some time, and little suggests they would have changed this time around either. Gross spreads remained healthy, despite requirement of increased return on deposits--reflecting ABLs effective asset and liability management.

Deposit growth has remained subdued of late, but the mix has improved--further strengthening net interest income, through reduced cost of funds. With an eye on the future, ABL had earlier hinted on diversifying income avenues. Continued improvement in non-operating income through dividend and forex gains is a testament to the strategy well in shape.

Allied Bank also happens to be one of the cleanest amongst peers, with a staggeringly low infection ratio of just seven percent and a very high coverage ratio. No wonder, provisioning charges made no-dent to the profits. What can dent in the future, though, is likely a reversal in interest rate cycles, following which ABL will have to move out of the comfort zone. Whether or not ABL would be lending aggressively is guesswork right now, but a shift in asset-mix will still have to be made--by choice or by design. Till then, all is well with ABL.
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/4638:abl-in-fine-form/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: momo on September 19, 2014, 05:10:16 PM
Any recommendation on this? Or any TP?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on September 19, 2014, 11:30:09 PM
Any recommendation on this? Or any TP?

I took position in it at 106.9 . should test n break previous highs. Very clean balance sheet n prudent management
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: darthvader on September 29, 2014, 08:53:20 PM
Any recommendation on this? Or any TP?

I took position in it at 106.9 . should test n break previous highs. Very clean balance sheet n prudent management

SBM bahi how do u see the gov. decision to sell its 10% stake in ABL to local investor .. do u see ABL's price decreasing due to this sale?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on September 30, 2014, 12:48:15 AM
Any recommendation on this? Or any TP?

I took position in it at 106.9 . should test n break previous highs. Very clean balance sheet n prudent management

SBM bahi how do u see the gov. decision to sell its 10% stake in ABL to local investor .. do u see ABL's price decreasing due to this sale?

just like ubl and ppl before and og right now, It will get take some pressure around SPO dates but will later recover ...
Bigger float should improve trading and price discovery .. too few shares in market right now ..
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 22, 2014, 04:15:17 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL):  9MCY14 Earnings Preview

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce financial results for 9MCY14 on Oct 23’14. We expect the bank’s earnings to clock in at PKR11.2bn (EPS: PKR9.8) in 9MCY14, up by a notable 34%YoY. The robust growth in earnings is primarily due to i) higher net interest income at PKR21.2 bn (up 31.8%YoY) on account of margin expansion due to higher investment in PIBs and 78bps increase in average 6M KIBOR to 10.2% during the period, and ii) sturdy non-funded income of PKR8.7bn, up 20%YoY led by a 15%YoY increase in fee and commission to PKR2.6bn. On a quarterly basis, we expect the bank to post earnings of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR3.6), registering a growth of 5.8%QoQ. Along with the results, we also expect the board to announce third interim dividend of PKR1.5/sh taking cumulative 9MCY14 dividends to PKR4.25/sh. Going forward, the strategic shift in asset mix with higher PIB holdings along with a gradual uptick in the demand for private sector credit in the long run is likely to boost future earnings where we expect a 5yr bottom line CAGR of 13%. Thus, we continue advocating a Buy call on the scrip with a TP of PKR146/sh. At yesterday’s close, the stock is offering an upside of 16.6% alongside dividend yield of 4.5%. ABL currently trades at CY14F P/B and P/E of 1.9x and 10.0x, respectively.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on October 24, 2014, 07:21:15 AM
9m eps 10.09  dps 1.75

http://kse.com.pk/newsimage/059294-1.gif
http://kse.com.pk/newsattachment/059294.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on October 25, 2014, 07:19:45 AM
http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/4852:incredible-allied-bank/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 28, 2014, 04:07:41 PM
Allied Bank Limited: Robust Fundamentals to Drive Value (Detailed Report)

We maintain our liking for Allied Bank Ltd. (ABL) with valuations (CY15 P/B: 1.6x, P/E: 7.7x, D/Y: 5.8%) remaining relatively un-stretched. For CY14, we expect ABL’s earnings to clock in at PKR15.4bn (EPS: PKR13.5) due to robust growth in funded and non-funded income. At the same time, we expect the bank to depict a pre-tax CAGR of 31% over the next three years, a significant contrast to average growth of 7% over the previous 3 years. Impetus to earnings growth will likely be provided by i) continued balance sheet expansion, and ii) increasing focus on NIM through expanding current deposits. ABL has already gained 37%CYTD, outperforming the broader BMA Banking space by 20% while the Government of Pakistan’s (GoP) decision to divest 10% of its stake in the bank may result in further price discovery. Our target price of PKR150/sh implies a upside of 23% from current levels along with Dec’15 DY of 5.8%– BUY!         

Robust Core Income in the Offing: For CY14F, we expect ABL’s core income to increase by 40%YoY following a strategic shift towards higher yielding longer tenor sovereign debt with expected stock of PIBs at PKR203bn by Dec’14, up 6.1x YoY. Investment yields are expected to increase to 9.4% in CY14F from 9.0% a year earlier with NIMs expanding to 4.5%, up 67bpsYoY. A 20% CAGR in core income over the next 5 years is premised on i) an eventual albeit delayed private sector credit growth in tandem with economic recovery, ii) leveraging of branch network to increase low cost deposits and iii) continued access to high yielding zero risk weighted sovereign debt.

Asset Quality: Slight hiccup but not concerning: While ABL depicted a consistent improvement in asset quality with infection reducing to just 6.4% in 1HCY14, latest accounts (3QCY14) indicate an unexpected increase in substandard NPL with infection jumping to 7.7%. In this regard, the jump in NPLs has come about due to PKR2.7bn exposure in a syndicated facility to Byco Petroleum Pakistan Limited being placed in substandard category. While strong group backing to Byco provides some comfort, we have conservatively incorporated infection at 7.5% for CY14 with continued high quality of remaining loan book and conservative fresh lending stance resulting in infection dropping to 7.1% by CY15 end.

Strong Capital Base: ABL is well capitalized with a CAR of 17.8% in CY13 (regulatory requirement of 10.0%) which is the 2nd highest amongst the Big 5 club, after MCB. The bank is comfortably placed for meeting BASEL III transition. Healthy CAR leaves enough space for the management to pursue an aggressive growth strategy in the event of an economic upturn and will also allow the management to maintain a healthy pay-out at the same time. Given the bank’s appetite for risk free government securities and its preference over risky lending coupled with expected healthy earnings growth going forward, we expect ABL’s CAR to further improve to ~18.2% by CY15F.

Investment Perspective: Despite gaining 37%CYTD, ABL trades at a relatively undemanding valuation set with CY15F P/B of 1.6x, P/E of 7.7x and a D/Y of 5.8%. With an average ROE of 22%+ over the next 5 years and expected price discovery post privatization process, we maintain our liking for ABL where our target price of PKR150/sh implies a upside of 23% from current levels – BUY!

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 28, 2014, 05:33:41 PM
Allied Bank Limited
Higher Capital Gains and Dividend Income drives earning by +58%YoY
ABL rolled out its 3QCY14 earnings, up by +58%YoY to PKR 4.45bn (PKR 3.89/share) bringing 9MCY14 profitability to PKR 11.56bn (PKR 10.09/share). In addition to this the bank maintained its historic payout ratio, declared a cash dividend of PKR 1.25/share taking 9MCY14 total payout to PKR 4.5/share. Major bottom-line drivers during the quarter were higher capital gains and dividend income.
Allied Bank Limited - Financial Highlights
PKRmn 3QCY14 %YoY 9MCY14 9MCY13 %YoY
Interest Earned 16,568 19% 48,339 40,088 21%
Interest Expensed 9,606 21% 28,515 23,729 20%
Interest Income 6,963 17% 19,824 16,359 21%
Fee Income 712 11% 2,426 2,248 8%
FX Gains 122 -32% 337 346 -3%
Capital Gains + Dividends 2,984 98% 6,203 3,492 78%
Others 75 240% 1,094 1,168 -6%
Non-interest Income 3,894 65% 10,060 7,254 39%
Total Income 10,856 30% 29,884 23,613 27%
OPEX 4,443 6% 12,692 11,585 10%
PPOP 6,413 56% 17,192 12,029 43%
Provisions (46) -117% (44) 311 -114%
Pre-tax Profits 6,460 68% 17,236 11,718 47%
Taxation 2,006 96% 5,680 3,376 68%
Post-tax Profits 4,453 58% 11,556 8,342 39%
EPS 3.89 10.09 7.29
DPS 1.75 4.50 3.75
Source: Company Financials, AHL Research
Interest Income Slowed Down As Deposit Cost Picked Up
During the 3QCY14, bank’s net interest income was up by +17%YoY compared to +24%YoY growth witnessed in by 1HCY14. Slowdown in interest income is attributable to higher cost of deposits as deposit cost normalises post Jun-14 seasonal trend - weighted average deposit rate for the 3QCY14 was up by 18bps stood at 5.13% compared to 4.95% 2QCY14 due to seasonal factor which collided with Eid-ul-Fitr – causing interest expensed to go up by +21%YoY to PKR 9.6bn, despite a healthy +19%YoY growth in Interest earned.
Steady Fee Income and Robust Capital Gains Put A +65%YoY Growth on Non-Interest Income
ABL capital gains and dividend income nearly doubled during the 3QCY14, outscoring other banks, as the bank reshuffled its equity portfolio under the new SBP regulations. As a result the bank booked in total of PKR 2.98bn (PKR 2.61/share), up by +98%YoY under this particular head. Apart from that, fee income of the bank showed steady gains, up by +11%YoY to PKR 712mn, contributing +18% to the total non-interest income (lowest amongst large banks).
Provisioning Reversals
ABL during the quarter booked in reversals worth PKR 46mn compared to provisioning charge of PKR 530mn same period last year, bringing 9MCY14 provisioning reversals to PKR 42mn. Currently the bank has the cleanest assets amongst its peers, with infection ratio of ~6.5% and coverage ratio of ~94%, henceforth provisioning surprises seems rather dim. Efficiency-wise, ABL OPEX was up by a mere +6%YoY. We suspect limited major branch expansion – keeping the key cost-to-income ratio at 41% (+42% 9MCY14) during the quarter.
Recommendation
At current price of PKR 123.7/share the scrip is trading at a CY15 forward P/B and P/E of 1.61x and 8.32x, respectively. Our Dec-15 price target for the Bank comes at PKR 143/share using justified price-to-book valuation, implying a 1.86x P/B multiple, ABL offers a decent +15% upside to our target price. In addition, we expect the bank to pay a dividend of PKR of 6.0/share in Dec’15, offering dividend yield of +4.9% bringing a total return of +20%. We recommend a ‘Buy” for the scrip.

AHL
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on October 28, 2014, 09:34:39 PM
@ahl, q3 dps wasc1.75 not 1.25Dividend with full year result will be 2 . full year 6.5.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on November 16, 2014, 10:18:03 AM
The Privatisation Commission (PC) board has approved a consortium of financial advisers (FAs) to sell the government’s remaining 10% stakes in Allied Bank Limited (ABL) through a Secondary Public Offering aimed at raising about Rs13 billion for budget financing.
The board that met under the chairmanship of PC Chairman Mohammad Zubair approved to hire Elixir Securities, MCB Bank and AKD Securities as FAs for the ABL transaction.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on November 27, 2014, 11:11:32 AM
(http://e.jang.com.pk/11-27-2014/karachi/images/1828.gif)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on December 01, 2014, 01:14:23 PM
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/60585-1.gif)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on December 09, 2014, 10:49:20 PM
abl floor price 105
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on December 09, 2014, 11:00:07 PM
abl floor price 105

tomorrow ready market mein buying banti hai
.. todays closing was not bad price .. 113 .. target is 140 +  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on December 10, 2014, 08:06:29 PM


Allied Bank Limited Banking on Strong Asset Quality – BMA Research (http://investorguide360.com/latest-economic-news/allied-bank-limited-banking-on-strong-asset-quality-bma-research/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+investorguide360+%28Investor+Guide+360%29)

ABL BOOK BUILDING – MMSPL Research (http://investorguide360.com/latest-economic-news/abl-book-building-mmspl-research/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+investorguide360+%28Investor+Guide+360%29)

ABL Subscribe today – WE Research (http://investorguide360.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/WE-Research6.pdf)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: baqii on December 26, 2014, 07:29:21 PM
Seniors any idea for ABL? Aj to book building ka rate bhee toor deya tha  :(
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on December 27, 2014, 01:41:03 PM
Seniors any idea for ABL? Aj to book building ka rate bhee toor deya tha  :(
ABL is lagging behind the financials. 110 is a very good accumulation rate. Recent support of ABL has been 107. ABL  will touch 113 on even monday with a Mid term target of 125
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on January 09, 2015, 06:50:31 PM
AKD Daily
 
ABL: Reinstate coverage; targeting PkR140/share


 
We reinstate ABL to our coverage with a Dec'15 target price of PkR140/share, offering 24% upside alongside a 5.3% forward D/Y. Although earnings growth will likely witness a slowdown post previous 5yr NPAT CAGR of 29%, we expect ABL to continue punching in 20%+ ROE. This, together with a more a palatable macro environment can unlock valuation rerating for the bank particularly as 18% CAR implies ABL has room to surprise on BS growth, especially in higher-yielding segments. In this regard, we do not believe recent NPL accretion (on a single chunky energy chain exposure) detracts from ABL's overall superior asset quality where credit costs are projected to stay < 50bps across the medium-term. ABL trades at a CY15F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 7.7x, an attractive valuation set given the bank's profitability profile and room for +ve surprises where sizeable unrealized equity portfolio backlog of ~PkR10bn can find its way onto the income statement across the next few years. Buy!
 
Room for rerating: Although earnings growth will likely witness a slowdown post last 5yr NPAT CAGR of 29%, ABL has ample room to rerate given: 1) a more palatable macro environment, 2) potential to outpace peers on BS growth given hefty capital buffer (CAR: 18%) and 3) sizeable unrealized equity portfolio capital gains backlog of ~PkR10bn. The latter in particular has the potential to lead to +ve earnings surprises across the medium-term especially as ABL's PIB stock/non-remunerative deposits mix implies the bank's NIMs are relatively shielded from lower interest rates. Instead, ABL has room to expand NIMs if it adds to its primarily corporate book by exploring growth opportunities in the higher-yielding consumer segment. Lastly, ABL's valuations may also rerate after slight recent float increase.   
 
Asset quality update: ABL's NPL stock stood at PkR23.1bn (NPL ratio: 7.7%, coverage: 80%) on Sep 30'14, up by 17%YoY/18%QoQ with the latest infection emanating from a single chunky exposure where the SBP has exempted any provisioning until Jun 29'15. Although loan provisions are projected to inch up in CY15F, we do not believe this detracts from ABL's overall superior asset quality where we venture that concerns over any write-offs have been overplayed. In this regard, we expect ABL's credit costs to remain contained within 50bps across the medium-term. Further impetus to the bottomline can emerge from efficient operations where C/I is projected to converge onto 40% across the medium-term. 
 
Investment perspective: ABL has gained 36% in the last 12m to trade at a CY15F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 7.7x. These remain attractive valuations for a bank punching in 20%+ ROE and room for positive surprises on BS growth given CAR strength (18%), particularly as the stock has already shed 18% from its 12m peak. Our TP of PkR140/share offers 24% upside alongside a 5.3% forward D/Y. Buy!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on January 11, 2015, 01:11:27 AM
lagta hay ABL chalnay kay liya bilkul tayyar hay. JS also comes up with a TP of 140.
http://www.jsglobalonline.com/researchReports/M08JAN15.pdf
Quote
UBL and ABL our preferred plays in Pak Banks
We reiterate UBL and ABL as our top picks in the sector. UBL trades at 2015F
P/BV of 1.64x, offering a total return of 29% to our Dec-2015 TP Rs212 while ABL
trades at 2015F P/BV of 1.56x also offering a total return of 29% to our TP of
Rs140. With expected monetary easing, we flag banks with hefty investments in
long-term government securities to stand as relatively safer bets. We expect
banking sector spreads to remain thin, flagging risk for banks dependent on core
income. That said, banks with focus on building Current Account deposits base in
their deposit mix are likely to stand out.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: faizanshams on January 29, 2015, 11:05:31 PM
Accumulate ABL with target price 147(30% returns)
holding period 3-4 months INSHALLAH before may
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on January 29, 2015, 11:16:33 PM
Accumulate ABL with target price 147(30% returns)
holding period 3-4 months INSHALLAH before may


 :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on January 30, 2015, 12:40:43 AM
Accumulate ABL with target price 147(30% returns)
holding period 3-4 months INSHALLAH before may


 :biggthumpup:
I am in since it was 111.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 04, 2015, 09:49:45 PM
Allied Bank Ltd
PIB yields and capital gains to support CY14 EPS to PKR13.76
Allied bank ltd is scheduled to announce its CY14 result on Feb 10’2015, where we expect
the bank to report EPS of 13.76, up 7% YoY. In 4QCY14, profit of the bank could
be PKR3.6 per share, down 9% QoQ. Along with the result, we expect the bank to declare
final cash payout of PKR1.5/share, taking full year payout to PKR6/share.

During CY14, Interest income is expected to rise by a healthy 20% YoY on the back of
sizeable investments in PIBs and decent surge in earning assets of the bank. On the
other hand, interest expenses are likely to increase by 16% YoY to PKR37.8bn due to
10% rise in deposits. Resultantly, NII would expand by 25% YoY while NIM may clock
in at 4.2%. SBP’s regulation to limit equity (stocks) investment to 30% of the total equity
caused the bank to shed its equity investments during 3Q, hence realizing
~PKR1.9bn gains during the quarter. We expect further ~PKR1bn capital gains in this
quarter, thus pushing CY14 non-markup income by 40% YoY. On the flip side, normalized
tax expenses are likely to hold back the growth in gross income to translate into
bottom-line increase. Hence, CY14 profits are expected to grow by modest 7% YoY.

During 4QCY14, NII of the bank is expected to surge by 4% QoQ. Although, interest
income is anticipated to remain flat, lower interest expenses due to compression in
funding cost would trigger the growth. However, non mark-up income is expected to
decline by 12% as we expect slightly lower gains on sale of securities. Resultantly,
4QCY14 profit is expected to hover around PKR4bn, down 9% QoQ.

At current levels, the scrip is trading at CY15 P/E and P/B of 9.2x and 1.6x, respectively.
After incorporating the recent DR cut, our target price for the scrip comes out
to be PKR137.1/share, offering a decent 20% upside

ABL PA
BUY
Stock price 113.8
Target price 137.1
Upside 20%
Outstanding shares (m) 1,145
Market Cap (PKR bn) 130.3
Free float 10%
3M Avg. daily value traded (PKRm) 68.4
3M Avg. daily volume (m) 0.6
3M High 120.0
3M Low 110.5
Normalized tax expenses to offset hefty gains realized during CY14

Interest income during CY14 is expected to rise by a healthy 20% YoY on the back of 1) sizeable
PKR165bn investments in PIBs during 9MCY14, which will expand asset yields by 47bps to 10.1%
during the year and 2) decent 10% surge in earning assets of the bank. On the other hand, interest
expenses might increase by 16% due to 10% increase in deposits during the period. Resultantly NII
would expand by 25% while NIM may clock in at 4.2%. Non mark?up income is anticipated to grow
by an astounding 40% due to hefty realized gains. We expect the bank to record ~PKR4.5bn capital
gains during CY14, lifting non mark?up income to PKR13.9bn. The major reason behind these gains
is the SBP regulation, which limits banks’ investment in stocks up to 30% of their equity. Therefore,
ABL, which had ~PKR30bn in equities as at 1HCY14 end making up ~42% of the equity, had to shed
its investment in order to comply with the regulations.

Although, PBT would rise by an impressive 58% YoY, normalized tax expenses are likely to hold
back the growth to translate into bottom?line. Hence, CY14 profits are expected to grow by mod?
est 7% YoY.

4QCY14 EPS to clock in at PKR3.57

During 4QCY14, NII of the bank is expected to surge by 4% QoQ. Interest income would remain
flat as the 2% growth in average earning assets of the bank is likely to be offset by 8bps shrinkage
in asset yields. However, interest expenses are expected to decline by 3% QoQ to PKR9.3bn on the
back of 14bps compression in funding cost. However, non mark?up income is expected to decline
by 12% QoQ as we expect slightly lower gains (~PKR1bn) on sale of securities compared PKR1.8bn
recorded in 3Q. Resultantly, 4QCY14 profit is expected to hover around PKR4bn, down 9% QoQ.

Taurus
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 09, 2015, 10:36:49 AM
ABL being quietly handed out public......Something is wrong!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 09, 2015, 11:47:28 AM
Allied Bank Limited - Re-initiation of Coverage

Optimally capitalized to employ growth strategies; Buy!
Summary
We re-initiate coverage of ABL, Pakistan’s 5th largest commercial bank, with a Buy rating and a justified P/B based PO of PRs135, offering 19% potential upside and DY of 6%.
ABL is uniquely placed to outperform sector growth rates by virtue of (1) top class capital adequacy and (2) enough scale in terms of size, geographical presence and balance sheet quality.
Our target 2015E P/B and P/E of 1.9x and 9.0x resp. do not place exceptional premium on valuations and are at a substantial 11%/20% discount to peers. ABL offers superior ROE of 20.5% vs average 20% for peers.
Re-initiate coverage with PO of PRs135; Buy!
We re-initiate coverage of Allied Bank Limited (ABL), Pakistan’s fifth largest commercial bank, with a Buy rating and a justified P/B based Dec-15 PO of PRs135, implying potential 19% upside from current levels in addition to 6% dividend yield. ABL’s stock price has moved more sideways in the past 6 months and has underperformed both the market (24%) and the banking sector (14%) in the same time.

Under-appreciating top class capital cushion/scale
Our forward NPAT 5-yr CAGR of 8% (inline with sector average) encompasses conservative input variables, reflecting lower medium-term interest rate outlook, which calls for innovative banking strategies to sustain double-digit growth momentum for Pakistan Banks. That said, ABL is uniquely placed to outperform sector growth rates, by virtue of (1) top-class capital adequacy (CAR: 18%, equity: PRs73bn, leverage: 10.8x) and (2) enough scale in terms of size, geographical presence and balance sheet quality. These should provide room for rapid credit growth, substantial expansionary room within regulatory limits and consequently much higher-than-peers alpha generation capacity.

Equity portfolio provides unique hedge to DR outlook
Having sold most of its mutual fund holdings, ABL is on the path to be within the recently enacted central bank’s regulations regarding equity exposure, mandating banks to contain investment in equity at 30% of Tier 1 equity by June 2015. The bank plans to continue benefitting from its equity portfolio heavy with value picks, which, having yielded >10% historically, provides a unique offsetting effect to earnings suppression from monetary easing – an advantage absent in peer group. Indeed, ABL’s equity portfolio has heavily supported the company’s earnings with dividend and capital gains contributing average 22% to total revenue in the past three years.

Unwarranted valuations discount
Our target 2015E P/B and P/E of 1.9x and 9.0x respectively do not place exceptional premium on the stock’s valuation and are at a substantial 11%/20% discount to peer group (we face-off ABL against UBL, MCB and BAFL to account for nearest competitors in terms of size and strategic tilt). ABL offers superior ROE of 20.5% vs average 20% for peers. With NPL ratio of 7.7% and coverage of 80%, ABL’s asset quality is at par or superior to its peers and warrants dilution of current discount on valuation.

Risks to our thesis
(1) Higher than expected quantum of monetary easing to challenge PAT growth, (2) rising NPLs, (3) contingent claims, (4) continued energy shortages suppressing economic growth, and (4) capital market performance form key risks to our investment thesis in ABL.

Kasb research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 09, 2015, 11:55:23 AM
Allied Bank Limited - Re-initiation of Coverage

Optimally capitalized to employ growth strategies; Buy!
Summary
We re-initiate coverage of ABL, Pakistan’s 5th largest commercial bank, with a Buy rating and a justified P/B based PO of PRs135, offering 19% potential upside and DY of 6%.
ABL is uniquely placed to outperform sector growth rates by virtue of (1) top class capital adequacy and (2) enough scale in terms of size, geographical presence and balance sheet quality.
Our target 2015E P/B and P/E of 1.9x and 9.0x resp. do not place exceptional premium on valuations and are at a substantial 11%/20% discount to peers. ABL offers superior ROE of 20.5% vs average 20% for peers.
Re-initiate coverage with PO of PRs135; Buy!
We re-initiate coverage of Allied Bank Limited (ABL), Pakistan’s fifth largest commercial bank, with a Buy rating and a justified P/B based Dec-15 PO of PRs135, implying potential 19% upside from current levels in addition to 6% dividend yield. ABL’s stock price has moved more sideways in the past 6 months and has underperformed both the market (24%) and the banking sector (14%) in the same time.

Under-appreciating top class capital cushion/scale
Our forward NPAT 5-yr CAGR of 8% (inline with sector average) encompasses conservative input variables, reflecting lower medium-term interest rate outlook, which calls for innovative banking strategies to sustain double-digit growth momentum for Pakistan Banks. That said, ABL is uniquely placed to outperform sector growth rates, by virtue of (1) top-class capital adequacy (CAR: 18%, equity: PRs73bn, leverage: 10.8x) and (2) enough scale in terms of size, geographical presence and balance sheet quality. These should provide room for rapid credit growth, substantial expansionary room within regulatory limits and consequently much higher-than-peers alpha generation capacity.

Equity portfolio provides unique hedge to DR outlook
Having sold most of its mutual fund holdings, ABL is on the path to be within the recently enacted central bank’s regulations regarding equity exposure, mandating banks to contain investment in equity at 30% of Tier 1 equity by June 2015. The bank plans to continue benefitting from its equity portfolio heavy with value picks, which, having yielded >10% historically, provides a unique offsetting effect to earnings suppression from monetary easing – an advantage absent in peer group. Indeed, ABL’s equity portfolio has heavily supported the company’s earnings with dividend and capital gains contributing average 22% to total revenue in the past three years.

Unwarranted valuations discount
Our target 2015E P/B and P/E of 1.9x and 9.0x respectively do not place exceptional premium on the stock’s valuation and are at a substantial 11%/20% discount to peer group (we face-off ABL against UBL, MCB and BAFL to account for nearest competitors in terms of size and strategic tilt). ABL offers superior ROE of 20.5% vs average 20% for peers. With NPL ratio of 7.7% and coverage of 80%, ABL’s asset quality is at par or superior to its peers and warrants dilution of current discount on valuation.

Risks to our thesis
(1) Higher than expected quantum of monetary easing to challenge PAT growth, (2) rising NPLs, (3) contingent claims, (4) continued energy shortages suppressing economic growth, and (4) capital market performance form key risks to our investment thesis in ABL.

Kasb research
ABL AM's (A wholly owned sub of ABL) earnings doubled. Thats should be a big support
(http://www.kse.com.pk/newsimage/62186-1.gif)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 09, 2015, 12:16:36 PM
@hasnain ... ABL has 1.14 billion shares.
ABL asset management profits may have doubled but impact on ABL eps will be negligible
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 09, 2015, 12:21:51 PM
@hasnain ... ABL has 1.14 billion shares.
ABL asset management profits may have doubled but impact on ABL eps will be negligible
Yep works out around 0.00006 something  :tongue: . Khair added some more at 111.50
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on February 09, 2015, 11:41:33 PM
@hasnain ... ABL has 1.14 billion shares.
ABL asset management profits may have doubled but impact on ABL eps will be negligible
Yep works out around 0.00006 something  :tongue: . Khair added some more at 111.50
Good buy as third best prospective growth bank by results in 2015.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 10, 2015, 01:25:36 PM
EPS 13.11 v 12.79
dps 2

NPAT below expectation due to major provisioning in q4, around 2.1 billion - might be from byco or branch fraud
PPOP is above expectations because of higher than expected NIMs
Buy on dips. i think.


http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/062252.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 10, 2015, 02:18:43 PM
EPS 13.11 v 12.79
dps 2

NPAT below expectation due to major provisioning in q4, around 2.1 billion - might be from byco or branch fraud
PPOP is above expectations because of higher than expected NIMs
Buy on dips. i think.


http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/062252.pdf
NIMs are expected to remain robust and improve going forward attributable to locked returns from PIB investments. ABL has made new advance of 5 Billion PKR in a syndicated financing to IPPs. Deposited some more money with my broker, will buy more of UBL and ABL if credited today.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on February 10, 2015, 02:33:25 PM
EPS 13.11 v 12.79
dps 2

NPAT below expectation due to major provisioning in q4, around 2.1 billion - might be from byco or branch fraud
PPOP is above expectations because of higher than expected NIMs
Buy on dips. i think.


http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/062252.pdf
NIMs are expected to remain robust and improve going forward attributable to locked returns from PIB investments. ABL has made new advance of 5 Billion PKR in a syndicated financing to IPPs. Deposited some more money with my broker, will buy more of UBL and ABL if credited today.
ABL has bought 12% of total pre IPO book building in SPWL; they will have unusual capital gains in 2015 & expected regular Div also.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 10, 2015, 02:47:11 PM
ABL- Abnormal provisions dragged the profits down in 4Q
 
 
q  Allied Bank Ltd announced its CY14 results today and reported consolidated net earnings of PKR15.2bn (EPS: 13.28), up by a mere 3% YoY. 4QCY14 earnings clocked in at PKR3.08/share against PKR3.91/share in 3Q, down 21% QoQ. Along with the result, BoD declared a final cash dividend of PKR2/share, taking full year payout to PKR6.5/share.
 
q   During CY14, NII grew by a healthy 30% YoY due to hefty investments in high-yield PIBs during the period. In addition, non mark-up income also grew by 33% because of capital gains (~PKR4bn) realized during the period. However, significant provisioning of ~PKR1.6bn and normalization of tax expenses kept the earnings growth in check.
 
 
q   On a QoQ basis, 4Q NII was up by 20% QoQ despite 50bps DR cut in Nov’14 monetary policy. Interest income grew by 13% QoQ while interest expenses also rose by 7% indicating rising deposit and earning assets base of the company. However, non mark-up income fell by 29% due to lower gain realized (~PKR700mn) during the quarter compared to PKR1.9bn in the preceding quarter. On the provisioning side, company recorded surprising provisions of PKR1.6bn vs. reversal of PKR46mn. Within this, provisions from NPLs increased to PKR2.1 in 4QCY14 compared to PKR30mn in 3Q. The rise could be linked to provisioning on Byco NPLs or reported bank fraud in Lahore branch.
 
q   At current levels, stock is trading at CY15 PE and PB of 9.4x and 1.6x, respectively. We maintain our Buy stance on the scrip with target price of PKR137/share.
Taurus
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 10, 2015, 03:30:16 PM

Investment Perspective:

We will reassess the valuation as soon as we receive the financial accounts of the company. Nevertheless, ABL with an estimated average ROE of 24% and earnings growth of nearly 7%, ABL is trading at a discount of 57% to our Dec’15 target price objective PKR177/share. Our value for ABL may move little lower by 6%-8% after incorporating the discount rate reduction of 100bps. The provision booked in the outgoing year can be considered as one-off event where we feel the provision charge will return to normality in 2015. 

hmfs
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hammad01 on February 10, 2015, 04:16:06 PM
It was not moving up for some time  :(, thought that may increase after result  :shoaby:. Result was not bad so was expecting it to go up  :dance, considering market was thinking that atleast hold its ground firmly :crying_anim02:, but has went down :ohmy: :confused1:.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 10, 2015, 05:15:57 PM

Investment Perspective:

We will reassess the valuation as soon as we receive the financial accounts of the company. Nevertheless, ABL with an estimated average ROE of 24% and earnings growth of nearly 7%, ABL is trading at a discount of 57% to our Dec’15 target price objective PKR177/share. Our value for ABL may move little lower by 6%-8% after incorporating the discount rate reduction of 100bps. The provision booked in the outgoing year can be considered as one-off event where we feel the provision charge will return to normality in 2015. 

hmfs
Kuch Ziada he lambi choor gay hain  :tongue: . ABL PO of 150 seems appropriate for December 2015. Accumulated some more today. One more interesting observation, all those stocks posting good results are going down after the announcement. Whats very interesting to note is that the 1.25 Million shares exchanged hands while ABL dropped from 112.50 to 109.50. Maybe a move to create panic selling and accumulation by brokerage houses? Same happened in UBL.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 10, 2015, 05:32:04 PM
https://abl.com/?p=1781&downloadfile=883&cat_id=1
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 10, 2015, 05:40:38 PM
150 ish is fine. 177 thora ziada hogiya
Reason being in 2015 capital gains may come down significantly.
2015 EPs will be around 2014 EPs so p/e won't be too high

14 eps n 7 dps for 2015
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 12, 2015, 11:21:03 AM
Allied Bank Limited - Company Update

Earnings quality & push on non-fund space to reap rewards; Buy
Summary
ABL's 4Q14 earnings missed expectations due to PRs2.1bn of provisioning expense. We remain positive on outlook as asset quality has considerably improved on QoQ basis. Reiterate Buy, with a Dec-15 PO of PRs135 (25% upside).
Management highlighted a fresh push towards strengthening the bank's non-fund income via better footprint in the trade business. The focus is long overdue and may present upside risk to estimates.
On PBT level, 50% YoY growth in 2014 is superior to peers whereas latest key indicators (19.8% CAR, 7.0% infection and 86% coverage) are healthy.
Better earnings quality compensating 4Q miss; outlook improves

Even though Allied Bank Ltd (ABL)’s 4Q14 earnings of PRs3.02/sh (down 22% QoQ, 45% YoY) fell short of ours and consensus expectations, we are more positive on ABL’s outlook as asset quality improvement was the only factor driving the miss. The bank provided for PRs2.1bn of bad debt in the quarter, bulk of which (PRs1.4bn) was pre-emptive provisioning of 50% exposure in one big-ticket loan. Since this action has only led to biting the bullet earlier than required by law, it has actually served to improve the bank’s coverage and consequently earnings outlook. We thus do not consider lower-than-expected result to be worrisome. Reiterate Buy, with a Dec-15 PO of PRs135 (25% upside).

We like the bank’s fresh focus on non-fund income base

While addressing investors in a post-results conference call, management highlighted a fresh push towards strengthening the bank’s non-fund income via better footprint in the trade business. We believe the focus on this front has been long overdue. Towards this end, the bank has already split its commercial and retail banking unit into two separate business lines – (1) commercial banking will focus exclusively on the middle market enterprises to drive a higher share of trade business, margin accounts, forex income, and eventually higher credit spread from commercial category; (2) retail banking has been allocated the highest number of branches to prioritize low cost deposit generation. ABL’s peer group, especially HBL and UBL, earn >20% of their gross revenue from this area compared to only 12% for ABL. Going forward, given ABL’s (1) low base and (2) significant branch network, earnings enhancement under these heads presents a material upside risk to our projections.

Not too positive on credit cycle; few sectors may drive uptick

Absent sustained solution of energy shortages and ABL’s traditionally very low risk appetite, the management is not pinning many hopes on revival in credit cycle just yet. 15% net advances growth during 2014 for ABL was primarily driven by public sector commodity advances, agri loans and the power sector. Going forward, power, oil refining, telecom and auto sectors may drive private sector credit demand.

Latest key indicators are healthy

Despite substantial realization of capital gains on P&L during 2014, unrealized gains on the book now total a whopping PRs14.5bn vs PRs9.9bn last year. Approximately 75% of these come from equity whereas 25% are from revaluation of AFS PIBs. The bank’s already top-class CAR has improved to 19.75% now, enabling a high level of flexibility to generate future growth. Infection at 7.0% and coverage at 86% are indicators of healthy asset quality. Finally, deposit growth of 10% to PRs668bn, together with a commendable 4pp CASA improvement to 73%, makes us positive on margin front.

PBT level profits are up 50% YoY

Despite higher provisioning, 2014 result is up 50% on PBT level thanks to (1) 30% YoY higher NII largely owing to largely HTM PIB investments (PIBs totaling PRs264bn now constitute 64% of investment book), and (2) PRs4.3bn vs PRs1.2bn last year recognized in capital gains taking non-interest income up by 33%.

KASB Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 12, 2015, 11:21:33 AM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Conference Call key takeaways
 
Ø  Allied Bank Limited (ABL) closed CY14 on higher note, with PBT growth of gigantic 50% YoY. Bottom-line grew by meager 3% during the period as the bank took advantage of tax benefit last year.

Ø  However, the performance was below street consensus as the Bank, adopt a conservative approach and recorded a provision of ~PkR1.4bn on a PkR2.7bn exposure of BYCO Petroleum loan. However, it will benefit the bank to post sustainable growth, going forward.

Ø  The bank has PkR264bn in PIBs, mostly in HTM category of an average yield of ~10-11% that will support NII in a low interest rate environment.

Ø  The bank has PkR14bn surplus on investment securities of which ~PkR5bn is in PIBs placing the bank to record capital gains on treasury moving ahead. Further, the bank has not yet complied with revised regulation introduced on equity investments (Equity Investments: ~37%  of Tier-1 Equity). To note, the bank needs to comply with the said regulation by Jun’15.

Ø  As per Shajar estimates, our valuation stance remains positive with a TP of136/sh and a call of “BUY”
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 12, 2015, 11:33:30 AM
Allied Bank: Key 2014 conference call

takeaways; reiterate Buy



KSE100 Index: Closing 34,203.99 ? (228.90)

 Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) held an analyst conference call yesterday to

discuss 2014 results where the bank posted earnings growth of +3%YoY

(Rs13.11).

 Growth in earnings was led by (1) 30% YoY growth in NII, (2) 33% YoY

improvement in Non Core Income and (3) subdued operating cost (+7%

YoY).

 ABL posted deposit growth of 10% YoY in 2014, maintaining its market

share at 8%. With primary focus on CASA improvement the bank was

able to achieve CASA of 73% in 2014 (+4ppt YoY).

 The management intends to conservatively expand its loan book in the

short to medium, while it wants to continue to maintain a high IDR.

 We believe impact of monetary easing as been overplayed as the stock

currently trades at 2015E P/B of 1.49x vs. industry’s average P/B of 1.77x.

We reiterate our Buy rating on ABL with a Target Price of Rs155.

Js Global
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 12, 2015, 02:55:16 PM
Allied Bank: Key 2014 conference call

takeaways; reiterate Buy



KSE100 Index: Closing 34,203.99 ? (228.90)

 Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) held an analyst conference call yesterday to

discuss 2014 results where the bank posted earnings growth of +3%YoY

(Rs13.11).

 Growth in earnings was led by (1) 30% YoY growth in NII, (2) 33% YoY

improvement in Non Core Income and (3) subdued operating cost (+7%

YoY).

 ABL posted deposit growth of 10% YoY in 2014, maintaining its market

share at 8%. With primary focus on CASA improvement the bank was

able to achieve CASA of 73% in 2014 (+4ppt YoY).

 The management intends to conservatively expand its loan book in the

short to medium, while it wants to continue to maintain a high IDR.

 We believe impact of monetary easing as been overplayed as the stock

currently trades at 2015E P/B of 1.49x vs. industry’s average P/B of 1.77x.

We reiterate our Buy rating on ABL with a Target Price of Rs155.

Js Global
Added some more today at 108.
107 is the key support tested in the days of dharna. But far better choice giving what MCB delivered. Around 6% more dividend yield from MCB.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 12, 2015, 05:38:49 PM
 
Result Review
 
ABL: Stellar growth in PBT during CY14; normalization of tax flattens bottom line
Result exceeds expectations
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its CY14 financial results on February 10, 2015, in which the company reported PAT of PKR15.2bn, translating into EPS of PKR13.28, up 3% YoY. Recurring CY14 EPS grew by 44% YoY excluding the impact of tax reversals last year. 4QCY14 EPS clocked in at PKR3.08, down 44% YoY. ABL also announced a cash payout of PKR2.0/sh along with annual results taking full year payout to PKR6.5/sh, up 24% YoY.
Higher than expected net interest income supported earnings
Net interest income of ABL grew by 30% YoY in CY14 (4QCY14: ?57% YoY) and clocked in at PKR28bn. This was primarily driven by balance sheet expansion of 15%, due to higher interest rates, increased exposure to high yield GoP securities, asset re-pricing in the 1HCY14 and a low base effect. The bank increased its PIB portfolio by 8.2x in CY14 as compared to the same period last year which helped the bank increase it’s NIMs to 4.9% in 4QCY14 against 4.2% in CY13. ABL also continued its focus on improving deposit mix and managed to increase its CASA by ~4pp to 73% in CY14. Current and savings deposits of the bank increased by 12% and 20% YoY respectively while fixed deposits fell by 5% YoY during the year. Interest income of the bank grew by 24% YoY during the year and outpaced interest expense by 5pp which increased by 19% YoY despite fixation of minimum savings rate.
NPL provisioning shall not be a cause of concern
NPL provisioning of the bank jumped by a hefty 1.8x in CY14 (4QCY14: ?5.5x YoY). This is largely due to provisioning done against delinquency by Byco Petroleum which amounted to PKR2.7bn. The bank provided for almost 50% of the loan in 4QCY14, remaining conservative despite relaxation granted by SBP w.r.t provisioning requirement of the loan until mid of CY15. Asset quality of the bank has slightly deteriorated due to this loan as NPL coverage fell from 93% in Dec-13 to 86% in Dec-14 while infection ratio has somewhat remained flat at 7%. Asset quality has however displayed improvement on a QoQ basis as NPL coverage increased by ~6pp and infection ratio fell by 60bps QoQ.
Non-interest income also posted impressive growth
ABL’s non-interest income posted 33% growth in CY14 (4QCY14: ?15% YoY) against the same period last year. This was largely supported by substantial jump in capital gains which grew by 2.4x YoY during the year. Other components of non-interest income combined together however remained flat during the year mainly due to weak FX and other income. Fee and commission income, on the other hand, increased by 9% YoY.
Conference call takeaways
ABL, in its conference call, has stated that the credit demand of the country would remain suppressed unless power crisis is resolved. The bank is thus focusing on capitalizing on alternate delivery channels. ABL has also segregated its banking operations into commercial and retail banking to improve operational efficiencies. ABL expects that international oil prices have bottomed out and would most likely bounce back going forward which would result in increased inflationary pressure in 2HCY15. This would thus trigger another cycle of monetary tightening, in bank’s opinion.   
Investment Case; Reiterate BUY
ABL remains our preferred pick in the Pakistan Banking space. The stock offers attractive potential upside of 25% to our Dec-15 PT of PKR135/sh together with a dividend yield of 5.9%, translating into a total returns of 31%. The stock is currently trading at attractive CY15E PBV of 1.5x and PER of 7.7x. BUY 

elixir
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on April 03, 2015, 12:31:51 PM
Well placed to weather looming risks; Reiterate Buy
• We cut ABL’s PO by 7% to PRs125 and trim 2015/16E EPS by 4%/1%. Reiterate Buy on expected 3-yr EPS CAGR of 11% and undemanding 2015E P/E & P/B of 7.1x &1.3x, despite sector-leading ROE of ~20%.
• ABL is likely to fare amongst the best in case IRC revision leads to spreads erosion for banks. ABL’s top-class efficiency (41% cost to income) should restrict earnings downside to 6%/7% for 2015/16E.
• While lower PIB duration implies a greater reinvestment risk come 2016, overall PIBs relative to investments at 62% is one of the highest amongst peers and is likely to boost NIM in 2015.

KASB
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: stuka on April 03, 2015, 01:15:36 PM


    Earnings growth for Pakistan's Commercial Banks in 2014 clocked in at 47% YoY, with profitability reaching Rs158.22bn in 2014 vis-a-vis Rs107.83bn in 2013 and ROE clocking in at an 8-year high of 15.71%.
    Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 24% YoY as high yielding assets outgrew liabilities during 2014.
    Banking sector's deposit growth clocked in at 11% YoY in 2014, led by 20% YoY growth in deposits of Islamic banks as conventional banks focused on shredding fixed deposits.
    The impressive fourth quarter 2014 results (+40%/47% QoQ/YoY) seconded our view that the banks' profitability trend is likely to continue going forward.
    In 2015, we expect earnings to grow by 12% YoY led by double digit growth in NII amid higher NIMs. Our top picks are United Bank Limited (UBL, TP: Rs248) and Allied Bank Limited (ABL, TP Rs148).
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MAR on April 17, 2015, 02:41:40 PM
 JS Global Capital Limited.
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) Is Scheduled To Announce Its 1Q2015 Result On April 23, 2015, Where We Expect ABL To Post 30% Yoy Higher 1Q2015 Earnings Of Rs4.21bn (EPS: Rs3.67).
We Expect Net Interest Income (NII) For The Quarter To Grow By 46% Yoy,However Non-Core Income Is Likely To Decline By 13% Yoy On Potentially Lower Capital Gains.
Alongside Result, We Expect ABL To Announce First Interim Cash Dividend Of Rs1.50/Share.
We Reiterate Our ‘Buy’ Stance On ABL With A Target Price Of Rs148, While ABL Presently Trades At An Attractive 2015E P/B Of 1.4x.
1Q2015 earnings likely to grow by 30% YoY

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 1Q2015 result on April 23, 2015, where we expect ABL to post 30% YoY higher 1Q2015 earnings of Rs4.21bn (EPS: Rs3.67). We expect Net Interest Income (NII) for the quarter to grow by 46% YoY, however Non-Core Income is likely to decline by 13% YoY on potentially lower capital gains. On a sequential basis, we expect earnings to grow by 22% QoQ led by lower provisioning costs. Alongside result, we expect ABL to announce first interim cash dividend of Rs1.50/share.

NII to boost profits in 1Q2015

We anticipate impressive 46% YoY growth in NII led by 200bps decline in policy rate coupled with increase in PIB investments in the overall portfolio. We expect ABL’s cost of funds to decline by 81bps YoY to 6.8% on cost savings, while yield on earning assets is likely to expand to 9.6% from 9.2% in 1Q2014 amid higher investments in PIBs. Notably, contribution of PIB income to bank’s topline is Expected to increase to ~40% in 1Q2015 from ~10% in 1Q2014.


 
Buy intact with Target Price of Rs148

We reiterate our ‘Buy’ stance on ABL with a Target Price of Rs148, while ABL presently trades at an attractive 2015E P/B of 1.4x. Our liking for ABL is premised.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 22, 2015, 06:30:10 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): 1QCY15 Earnings Preview

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to post NPAT of PKR3.7bn (EPS: PKR3.25) in 1QCY15, an increase of 14.7%YoY when compared with the earnings of PKR3.2bn (EPS: PKR2.83) in 1QCY14. Along with the result, the bank is likely to declare an interim cash dividend of PKR1.5/sh.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 22, 2015, 06:54:28 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): 1QCY15 Earnings Preview

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to post NPAT of PKR3.7bn (EPS: PKR3.25) in 1QCY15, an increase of 14.7%YoY when compared with the earnings of PKR3.2bn (EPS: PKR2.83) in 1QCY14. Along with the result, the bank is likely to declare an interim cash dividend of PKR1.5/sh.

bma

dps should be 2, lets c. 175 at least
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 23, 2015, 12:30:37 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): 1QCY15 Earnings Preview

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to post NPAT of PKR3.7bn (EPS: PKR3.25) in 1QCY15, an increase of 14.7%YoY when compared with the earnings of PKR3.2bn (EPS: PKR2.83) in 1QCY14. Along with the result, the bank is likely to declare an interim cash dividend of PKR1.5/sh.

bma

dps should be 2, lets c. 175 at least

 :dance

1.75 dps eps 3.68 even after 729 mio of provisioning

http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/065377.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 23, 2015, 12:34:25 PM
Full year eps will be approx 15 n dps 8.5 (1.75 + 1.75 + 2 + 3)

first target 135, longer term it can be 175+ contingent on credit growth  :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on April 25, 2015, 09:11:51 AM
Read the Allied Banks (ABL) directors report for CY14 and then read the 1QCY15 financial results. ABL has a strategic focus on improving the low cost (CASA) deposits mix to absorb the impact of regulatory changes in PLS deposit rates. And that strategic focus, it seems, is yielding the desired results, as evident by a significant growth in banks net mark-up income for the quarter.

The improvement in gross spread ratio from 38 percent in the same period last year to 46 percent is testament to ABLs effort to further rationalize the deposit mix. A commendable feat, considering the reduced interest rates and SBPs strict vigilance on deposit returns and spreads.

ABL has had decent deposit growth of late and most of it unsurprisingly gets parked in government papers. The banks ADR at 46 percent as at December 2014 end hovered around the industry average. Advances portfolio in fact increased from the previous year and that always carries a cost. Little surprise then, that the NPLs were on a rise, having increased by 18 percent year-on-year by the end of CY14. This is the only blot otherwise wonderful profit and loss statement, comes in the form of high provisioning charges.

That said, the improvement in net mark-up income was sufficient enough to carry the impact to the bottom line. The administrative expenses too, were kept in check, and with the continuing support of non mark-up income, a substantial increase in after-tax profit was a just outcome.

ABL boasts of one of the better capital adequacy ratios amongst the peer banks and its asset composition makes it more ready than others to gear up for a likely shift towards advances. It remains to be seen, whether ABL shifts its asset mix strategy in the wake of lower interest rates, or the deposit mix rationalization will continue to remain the focus for ABL.

http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/44:miscellaneous/5385:allied-bank-flawless---almost/
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on April 28, 2015, 06:10:50 PM

Result Review
 
ABL: Strong ROE despite higher taxes; maintain BUY

Result underperforms expectations
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its 1QCY15 financial results on April 10, 2015, in which the company reported PAT of PKR14.3bn, translating into EPS of PKR3.72, up 30% YoY (+21% QoQ). The bank also announced a cash payout of PKR1.75/sh, up 40% YoY.
Higher total revenues driven by hefty Mark-up income growth
ABL’s total revenues clocked in at PKR11.7bn, up 35% against the same period in the consecutive year. This was largely driven by substantial improvement in net interest income (NII) which grew by 47% YoY during 1QCY15 primarily as a result of substantial investment exposure to high yield PIBs together with the impact of asset re-pricing while deposits augmented by 9% YoY, despite improving CASA mix which grew from 69% in 1QCY14 to 75% in 1QCY15. Mark-up income alone grew by 23% YoY and outpaced mark-up expense which grew by 8% YoY. Non-interest income of the bank grew by 10% YoY during the quarter largely supported by notable growth of 20% YoY in Non-Funded Income (NFI). Capital gains fell by 59% YoY due to a high base effect. 
Significant jump in NPL provisioning should not be a cause of concern
NPL provisioning of the bank jumped substantially from a reversal of PKR37mn to provisioning of PKR728mn. Most of it was largely due to delinquency related to Byco Petroleum. This has led to notable improvement in bank’s asset quality whereby NPL coverage ratio has improved to 90.62% in 1QCY15 against 86.43% during 4QCY14, up 4pp QoQ. Infection ratio on the other hand worsened somewhat from 7.03% in 4QCY14 to 7.11% in 1QCY15 primarily due to plunge in advances and cannot be associated with the jump in NPLs. Aggressive NPL provisioning has resulted in a cleaner book for ABL and would result in slowdown in NPL provisioning post Jun-15 in our view, once the bank has completely provided for the Byco delinquency.
Conference call takeaways
ABL, in its conference call held yesterday, stated that the bank continued to invest surplus funds in PIBs owing to muted loan demand which increased the concentration of PIBs in total investments by 4pp QoQ to 68%. Any growth in credit demand would largely be triggered by resolution of energy crisis in the country, as per the management. The bank is not very optimistic in terms of increasing its exposure to PIBs further given the reduced spread on PIBs as it will be locked in for 3 to 5 years. The management also plans to add fifteen to twenty Islamic branches to its network during the year. ABL also notified that out of PKR17.7bn unrealized gains, PKR6bn pertains to PIBs and T-Bills.
Investment Case; Reiterate BUY
ABL posted sharp improvement on the RoE front from 20.5% in CY14 to 26.74% during 1QCY15. The bank remains our preferred pick in Pakistan Banking space. The stock offers attractive potential upside of 19% to our Dec-15 PT of PKR135/sh together with a dividend yield of 5.9% translating into a total returns of 24%. The stock is currently trading at attractive CY15E PBV of 1.4x and PER of 7.9x. BUY

elixir
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on May 19, 2015, 03:47:58 PM
Why this going down everybody is giving the tip of 150
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on May 19, 2015, 04:18:51 PM
Why this going down everybody is giving the tip of 150
Because everybody doesn't know how good this bank is going to be going forth.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on May 19, 2015, 04:54:43 PM
Why this going down everybody is giving the tip of 150

market is weak .. its ok to hold ..
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on June 01, 2015, 11:54:20 AM
Buy Allied it will be 135 in July don't miss the train
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on June 01, 2015, 10:25:37 PM
Buy Allied it will be 135 in July don't miss the train
I don't know about it reaching 135 or 138 or something, but I like this bank in the space of big 5. Best value for money investment
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on June 06, 2015, 01:42:15 AM
ABL Ka kiya ho ga
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on July 11, 2015, 07:16:02 PM
ABL added as new PD
http://www.sbp.org.pk/dmmd/2015/C13.htm
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on July 11, 2015, 11:18:42 PM
Yeh 150 hoga ya nahi in 1 year
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 03, 2015, 06:43:06 PM
 
Result Preview
 
ABL: Super tax and weak non-core income to limit earnings growth
Result expectations

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to announce its 2QCY15 financial results on August 05, 2015. We have projected the bank’s 1HCY15 PAT at PKR7.2bn, translating into EPS of PKR5.86, flat as compared to the corresponding period last year. 2QCY15 EPS is expected to clock in at PKR2.54, down 26% YoY. The bank is also expected to announce a cash payout of PKR1.75/sh taking 1HCY15 dividend to PKR2.75/sh.
Growth in total revenue to slowdown owing to weak non-interest income
We expect total revenues of ABL to post muted growth of 6% against the corresponding period last year largely dragged by weak noninterest income.
Net interest income (NII) would remain strong largely owing to lagged asset re-pricing of assets together with yields locked in on PIB portfolio of the bank. Liability side in contrast re-prices with immediate effect and would thus result in notable plunge in interest expense. Overall, net interest income (NII) would likely post 20% growth when compared to the same period last year. We have projected net interest margin (NIM) of the bank at 4.7%.
Non-interest income, on the other hand, is expected to remain weak largely due to a high base impact as the bank posted substantial other income during the corresponding period last year. We have also conservatively projected the FX income and assumed a 58% YoY drop. The bank may however recognize some proportion of its sizeable unrealized capital gains on PIB portfolio which may lead to earnings surprise during the quarter.
NPL provisioning might disappoint
ABL’s NPL provisioning for the 1Q clocked in at PKR728mn against a reversal of PKR37mn during 1QCY14. This was largely driven by sharp spike in NPLs due to delinquency related to Byco petroleum. The bank is also required to provide for the remaining amount of the loan during 2QCY15 which is why we are anticipating a substantial increase in NPL provisioning of the bank and have projected it at PKR680mn while NPL stock is projected at PKR24bn, displaying an increase of 3% during 1HCY15.
Investment Case; Reiterate BUY
We have used justified PBV valuation methodology and have arrived at Jun-16 PT of PKR125/sh which offers a 21% upside and a dividend yield of 4.6%, translating into a total return of 26%. The stock is currently trading at attractive CY15E PBV of 1.3x and PER of 8.2x. BUY
Downside risks
Owing to easing inflation and bleak oil prices outlook, there can be another interest rate cut by SBP. This will result in further shrinkage of the bank’s margin leading to reduced earnings and PT.

elixir
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on August 03, 2015, 07:59:18 PM
Yeh 150 hoga ya nahi in 1 year
Not expected Rs. 150. Max may go to 120~125 in Feb 16.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 04, 2015, 09:15:55 PM
AKD Daily

ABL: 1HCY15 Result Preview

 
ABL is scheduled to announce its 1HCY15 earnings on Wednesday, Aug5'15. We expect healthy YoY earnings performance (EPS likely to go up by 2%YoY in 1HCY15F to PkR6.3) on strong NII due to 1) B/S expansion (int. earning assets to go up by an estimated 11%YoY), 2) reduction in cost of deposits (DR reduced to 7.6% in 2QCY15 vs. 10% in 2QCY14), and 3) strong NIMs on contribution from the PIB portfolio (63% of investments). That said, provisions are expected to jump up substantially in 1HCY15F to hover around PkR1.2bn restricting profitability growth. However, on a QoQ basis, we anticipate 28% drop in earnings with higher tax incidence (super tax of 4% and a flat 35% tax on all income sources) being the key factor limiting profitability (2QCY15F EPS: PkR2.63, down 28% QoQ). Additionally, sequential 16% decline in non-interest income is likely to be another earnings dampener, in our view, primarily on the back of lower dividend income. That said, with a sizeable backlog of PkR21.2bn worth revaluation gains as of Mar'15, room for positive surprises exist should the bank choose to utilize these gains. Alongwith the result announcement, we expect the bank to payout PkR1.75/sh as dividends taking the total 1HCY15 payout to PkR3.5/sh (expected payout:55%). ABL has underperformed the market by a good 20% CYTD, trading at a forward P/B and P/E multiple of 1.3x and 7.7x respectively- a relatively un-stretched valuation set compared to peer group (P/B: 1.6x, P/E:8.5x). Our TP of PkR123/sh offers 19% upside.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on August 05, 2015, 02:40:01 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/FinalDownload/DownloadId-D5B8D2E0CC503CF513C5FC7BF2855AA8/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/newsattachment/068107.pdf
2.75 Vs 3.37
29%YoY improvement in NII
the Non-Interest income messed everything up.
And whats most surprising that bank didn't book any gains :o
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 07:27:27 PM
Allied Bank Limited posted an EPS of PKR 2.75 in 2Q15, (+19% YoY), taking 1H15 EPS to PKR 6.42 (+4% YoY). Excluding one-off tax expense, on a normalized tax rate of 35%, 2Q EPS would have been PKR 4.03. Growth in net interest income (+25% YoY) and fee income (+23% YoY) highlight strong fundamentals.

ABL is our top pick in the Pakistan Banks universe, with a TP of PKR122. On an adjusted P/B basis, ABL trades at an attractive P/B of 1.23x vs HBL (1.87x), UBL (1.58x) and MCB (2.39x). Compared to its 5 yr avg P/B, ABL trades at a 5% discount, vs. a 6-36% premium amongst peers.

Trading at 7.8x CY15E P/E; ABL is also trading at a 35% discount to peer group avg. CY15 P/E of 10.5x. With ROE in-line with the peer group avg., the discounts (both in terms of P/B and P/E) are excessive, in our opinion.

A key upside to our earnings estimates for ABL is the potential realization of hefty capital gains from its equity portfolio in 2HCY15, which remains above the regulatory limit. We estimate an EPS impact of upto PKR 2.08 per share from capital gains, if ABL brings its portfolio within the regulatory limit.

http://investorguide360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/ABL-Under-performance-unjustified-as-fundamentals-remain-strong_-Buy.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 07:32:24 PM
Post Allied Bank Limited 1HCY15 results (EPS: PkR6.55; +4%YoY) and management con call, we tweak our CY15F/CY16F EPS estimates by ?3%/+3% to PkR13.90/PkR15.60 and raise our TP slightly to PkR125/share. Recall that 1HCY15 EPS clocked in at PkR6.55 (ex? prior year tax: PkR7.83).

CY15F revision is due to incorporation of higher effective tax rate (55% in 2QCY15). Increased CY16F estimates arise from asset quality improvement and strong fee income trend, which counter management reticence on loan growth and capital gains realization.

ABL trades at a CY16F P/B of 1.2x and P/E of 6.8x where our revised TP offers 18.8% upside alongside a forward D/Y of 7.1%. ABL remains one of our top picks, poised to benefit from an improving macro setting. We will turn incrementally bullish if the bank steps up its private sector lending proposition.

MkTPulse – ABL – TP tweaked to PkR125 per share – 07-08-2015 (http://investorguide360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MkTPulse-ABL-TP-tweaked-to-PkR125-per-share-07-08-2015.pdf)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 07:36:14 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/FinalDownload/DownloadId-D5B8D2E0CC503CF513C5FC7BF2855AA8/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/newsattachment/068107.pdf
2.75 Vs 3.37
29%YoY improvement in NII
the Non-Interest income messed everything up.
And whats most surprising that bank didn't book any gains :o

both UBL & ABL management expect rate cut in sept
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 08:23:43 PM
(http://puu.sh/jsQQb/36a331a725.png)

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: momo on August 07, 2015, 09:45:08 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/FinalDownload/DownloadId-D5B8D2E0CC503CF513C5FC7BF2855AA8/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/newsattachment/068107.pdf
2.75 Vs 3.37
29%YoY improvement in NII
the Non-Interest income messed everything up.
And whats most surprising that bank didn't book any gains :o

both UBL & ABL management expect rate cut in sept

Did the management state that or are you inferring that?
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 07, 2015, 10:13:24 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/FinalDownload/DownloadId-D5B8D2E0CC503CF513C5FC7BF2855AA8/83E67618-B39D-46AC-B7CF-47CE8593811A/newsattachment/068107.pdf
2.75 Vs 3.37
29%YoY improvement in NII
the Non-Interest income messed everything up.
And whats most surprising that bank didn't book any gains :o

both UBL & ABL management expect rate cut in sept

Did the management state that or are you inferring that?

management said that in conference calls after result
and it can also be inferred from their income statement/balance sheet structure
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on August 07, 2015, 11:38:15 PM
Inflation remains soft despite flood and supply side shocks. The average inflation is likely to soften further despite positive monthly readings because of high inflation figures going out of the memory. A higher real interest rate may spark another discount rate cut.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 25, 2015, 05:46:32 AM
kia bc stock hai
tezi mein  kahin nahi giya aur ab floor horaha hai
nml ka baap hai
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on August 25, 2015, 10:02:44 AM
kia bc stock hai
tezi mein  kahin nahi giya aur ab floor horaha hai
nml ka baap hai
:laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on October 22, 2015, 07:23:02 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/071849.pdf

great result
still closed negative
 uuu huhu
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on October 22, 2015, 07:25:21 PM
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/071849.pdf
3.93 Vs 3.89
Still not selling the PIBs and MTBs or the stocks accumulated. Very patient Investors.
The upside is that when would they revalue their assets? they have been sitting on a huge real estate exposure in the name of buying land for branches rather than rental arrangements. Should be a good jump to Books when they decide to revalue their land.
http://www.kse.com.pk/newsattachment/071849.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on October 22, 2015, 07:30:21 PM
FLASHNOTE
 
ABL: 9MCY15 earnings clocked in at PKR10.5/share
 
q  Allied Bank Limited (ABL) has announced its 9MCY15 results today, where the bank has reported earnings of PKR12.0bn (EPS PKR10.5), up 3% YoY.  In 3Q alone, profits of the company have clocked in at PKR3.95/share, up 40% QoQ. Along with the results, company announced interim cash dividend of PKR1.75/share, taking 9MCY15 payout to PKR5.25/share.
 
q   During 3Q, net interest income of the bank rose by 5% QoQ to PKR9.4bn. We attribute this to 8% QoQ dip in interest expenses to PKR8.3bn owing to declining funding cost post monetary easing. However, interest income fell by meager 1% to PKR17.6bn due to loan portfolio re-pricing.
 
q  Non-mark-up income declined by 21% QoQ to PKR2.2bn due to 28% QoQ dip in fee income and normalized other income. To recall bank recorded PKR820mn compensation on delayed tax refunds during 2QCY15. Resultantly, before tax profits declined by 4% QoQ to PKR7.0bn. However, normalized taxation (absence of super tax) uplifted net earnings during the quarter to PKR4.5bn, up 40% QoQ.
 
q   Cumulatively, during 9MCY15, net interest income rose by healthy 35% to PKR26.8bn with interest income increasing by 12% to PKR54bn while interest expenses declined by 4% to PKR27.2bn. However, lower non mark-up income (down 21%) contained the gross profit to PKR35bn, up 16%. Resultantly, profit before tax rose by 19%, but the imposition of super tax and uniform taxation contained the bottom-line growth at 3% to PKR12.0bn.
 
 
 
 
 
Research
Taurus Securities Limited
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 23, 2015, 07:44:51 PM
ABL: 9M2015 EPS stood at Rs10.36, up 3% YoY

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) announced its 9M2015 result today posting a PAT of Rs11.86bn (EPS: Rs10.36), up 3% YoY. Earnings came in-line with our estimates. The bank also announced a third interim cash dividend of Rs1.75 per share (cumulative 9M2015 dividend of Rs5.25 per share).

ABL's 9M2015 Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 35% YoY to Rs26.78bn, on the back of likely higher earnings assets while 22% YoY decline in Non Core Income was witnessed due to higher base impact. The bank booked Gain on Securities of Rs0.10/share (after tax) during 3Q2015, against Rs1.06/share (after tax) during 3Q2014.

At current levels the ABL is trading at 2015E PE and PBV of 7.58x and 1.28x, respectively.

JS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 23, 2015, 07:45:57 PM
ABL: 9MCY15 earnings clock in at PKR11.9bn (EPS: PKR10.4)

§  Allied Bank Limited (ABL) reported earnings of PKR11.9bn (EPS: PKR10.4) for 9MCY15, posting a nominal growth of 3%YoY from PKR11.6bn (EPS: PKR10.1) in 9MCY14. The result was in line with our estimates.

§  The result announcement also accompanied an interim cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking the total payout during the period to PKR5.25/sh.

§  For 3QCY15 alone, the bank reported earnings of PKR4.5bn (EPS: PKR3.9), up 1%YoY.

§  During 9MCY15, the bank’s NII reported a growth of 35%YoY to PKR26.8bn compared to PKR19.8bn in 9MCY14. At the same time, provisioning expenses clocked in at PKR474mn in 9MCY15 against reversals of PKR44mn in 9MCY14, which kept profitability growth in check.

§  The bank’s non-interest income reported a decline of 22%YoY during the period, standing at PKR7.8bn mainly on account of significantly lower capital gains realized which amounted to PKR602mn against PKR3.4bn registered in 9MCY14.

§  We currently have an Accumulate call on the scrip with a TP of PKR109/sh. On last closing, the bank is trading at forward P/E and P/B multiples of 7.8x and 1.3x respectively.

BMA
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on November 05, 2015, 12:57:17 AM
100 keh neechay aur du .. thanks
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on November 26, 2015, 10:34:49 AM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Lower reinvestment risk a counter balance to conservative lending policy
 
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) reported 9MCY15 earnings of PKR11.86bn (EPS: PKR10.4), slightly higher than the consensus estimates on account of i) higher than expected NII after provisions (up 32%YoY) and ii) restrained growth in bank’s operating expenses (up 7%YoY). Bank’s profitability showed a limited growth of ~3% in 9MCY15 as against the profitability growth of 11%-26% witnessed in other members of Big-6 (ex-NBP) as the bank bucked the trend of realizing capital gains, foreseeing difficult CY16 and CY17. With 53% of the bank’s total PIB portfolio classified as HTM, we expect the capital gains realized by the bank going forward will remain on the lower side. Conversely, the reinvestment risk of the bank will be considerably lower than the peers. Foreseeing a difficult CY16 with DR likely to remain low, the management also decided to exercise its call option on its outstanding TFC of PKR2.9bn on which the bank had to pay KIBOR+1.3%. Given the conservative nature of bank’s management on advances, we do not expect the bank’s advances to grow by the same proportion as of the other members of Big-6 and therefore we forecast the bank’s advances to post a 5 year CAGR of 12% between CY15-CY20. Factoring in all the changes in assumptions, ABL has an average ROE of ~19% between CY15-CY20. The scrip underperformed against KSE100 by 3% since Sept’15 has opened up the valuations further and the scrip is currently trading at a CY16 forward P/E and P/B of 6.3x and 1.1x and offers an upside of 35% at our revised TP of PKR132/sh- ‘BUY’

Bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on January 11, 2016, 02:03:02 PM
ABL trading at steep valuations; Buy!
 
Ø  Allied Bank Limited (ABL) has underperformed the broader index by 21% and the banking sector by 4%. This has resulted in the stock to trade at a significant discount of 20% from its peers’ P/B (MCB/UBL/HBL) against historical 5% discount.
Ø  As per our estimates, ABL is expected to record an average Tier-1 RoE of 22.9% vs. average 23.3% of peers' amid likely ~6% CAGR in earnings during (CY15-CY17) somewhat underneath peer’s average of ~9%. We forecast CY15E/CY16F/CY17F EPS of PkR14.18/PkR15.33/PkR15.70 respectively.
Ø  Our profit assessment took account for 40% PIBs maturing in 2016 that would have an impact of PkR3.3/sh and bring down earning asset yield by 0.85%. However, 37bps decrease in cost of funds would grasp net interest margins (NIMs) to average at 4.11% vs. 4.61% in CY15.
Ø  ABL has altogether improved coverage ratio to 91% during the year CY15 against 85% in CY14. Subsequently we consolidate lessened expense of provisioning of 0.3-0.4% in CY15E-CY17 which had reached to 1.0-1.3% in CY09-CY11. While computing expense of provisioning, we foresee expansion in NPLs by 4-5% on a gross advances growth of 10-11% during CY16/17.
Ø  Accounting for the above factors, we believe intrinsic value of the stock to be PkR111.8/sh while our Dec’16 Target Price (TP) comes out at PkR127.2/sh using justified P/B method. The stock has lost 19% value during the past one year and is trading at an attractive one-year forward P/B of 1.108.BuY!

shajar
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: sAr on January 11, 2016, 07:40:12 PM
 :skeptic:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on January 11, 2016, 08:14:04 PM
Market worst share ABL and ptcl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 03, 2016, 11:57:24 AM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): CY15 earnings expected at PKR14.1/sh
 
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to post earnings of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR14.1), depicting a 7.3%YoY increase as against PKR15.0bn (EPS: PKR13.1). Along with the result, the bank is expected to announce final cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking the total payout during CY15 to PKR7.0/sh. In 4QCY15 alone, the bank’s profitability is likely to decline by 6%QoQ to PKR4.3bn (EPS: PKR3.71) as compared to PKR4.5bn (EPS: PKR3.9) registered in 3QCY15. During CY15, the bank’s net interest income is likely to expand by 30%YoY to PKR36.7bn. Lower provision expense of PKR674mn versus provisioning expense of PKR1.61bn during the same period last year will further support the growth in earnings during CY15. Asset quality will remain robust with NPL ratio remaining ~6.9% (CY14: 7.0%) in CY15 while the coverage ratio is approaching 92%. The bank has shed 22% since Apr’15 on the back of multiple rounds of monetary easing, thereby underperforming the benchmark KSE-100 index by 17%. Consequently, the valuations have opened up and the bank is currently trading at CY16F P/B and P/E of 1.1x and 6.1x respectively. With DR reaching its trough, ABL at current levels offer a good entry point. The bank’s prime asset quality and a very healthy PIB maturity profile will support its ROE going forward with a potential to surprise in earning coming from huge unrealized gains (PKR21.2bn). At our Dec’16 TP of PKR132/sh, offering an upside of 41% along with DY of 8%. BUY

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 07, 2016, 11:44:38 PM
Market worst share ABL and ptcl
Thanda share hay cuz Owners sara float choos kay bethay huay hain. Nechay aay to uthalo for dividends.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on February 08, 2016, 01:47:39 AM
Owner chata nahi us ki bank share price upper jaye 150 hona chaye
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 08, 2016, 03:01:53 AM
Owner chata nahi us ki bank share price upper jaye 150 hona chaye
Holding group AH,JS ki tarha adha broker, adha industrialist nahi Hay.
Sab baray aur khandani business groups apny stock ki value ma interfere nahi karty.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 10, 2016, 11:28:06 AM
ABL: 2015 EPS expected at Rs13.67, up 4% YoY
February 09, 2016 (JS Research)

• Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 2015 result on February 10, 2016, where we expect ABL to post 4% YoY higher earnings of Rs15.66bn (EPS: Rs13.67).
• ABL's Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to grow by 27% YoY in 2015 on the back of higher yielding government papers, while Non-core Income is likely to drop by 19% YoY on higher base of realized capital gains during 2014 (2015: Rs0.56/share vs. 2014: Rs2.36/share).
• On a quarterly basis, 4Q2015 earnings are likely to come 10% YoY higher but 16% QoQ lower at Rs3.80bn (EPS: Rs3.31).
• Alongside result, we expect a final cash dividend of Rs2.25/share, taking cumulative 2015 dividend to Rs7.50/share.
• We reiterate our 'Buy' stance on ABL with a Target Price of Rs111. Presently, ABL trades at 2016E P/B 1.1x vs. sector P/B of 1.2x.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on February 10, 2016, 01:33:36 PM
Final cash div Rs. 1.75:
http://www.psx.com.pk/notices-updates/detail2.php?0.4413433418802443&id=4&nid=076629
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on February 10, 2016, 01:43:04 PM
Full year earning
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 10, 2016, 05:52:36 PM
eps & dps both below expectations

Core earnings however were good, final eps was low due large impairment charge on investments ..
Imho ABL should post 14+ eps next year
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on February 11, 2016, 11:17:57 AM
BMA Flashnote Wednesday, February 10, 2016
 
ABL: CY15 Earnings remained flat at PKR13.2/sh
?  Allied Bank Limited (ABL) reported CY15 earnings of PKR 15.1bn (EPS PKR13.2) as compared to PKR15.02bn (EPS: PKR13.1) in full year CY14, depicting a flattish trend YoY. The result announcement accompanied a final cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking cumulative payout during CY15 to PKR7.0/sh.
?  4QCY15 result was lower than street’s estimates on account of sizeable impairment of PKR1.8bn realized on the value of investments.
?  Bank’s full year Net Interest Income after provisions is up by 30%YoY to PKR34.6bn led by i) lower cost of funding as interest expense declined by 7%YoY on the back of lower average DR of ~7.5% in CY15 and ii) 8%YoY growth in interest earned on account of higher yielding PIBs.
?  Non-Funded Income posted a decline of 23%YoY to PKR9.76bn from PKR12.74bn as a result of high base effect as bank realized heavy equity gains in CY14 to gain compliance with SBP’s regulation pertaining to equity investments. At the same time operating cost reported a jump of 10%YoY in CY15 to PKR18.86bn from PKR17.11bn in the corresponding period last year.
?  Taxation expense also increased by 44%YoY to PKR10.38bn as the effective tax rate jumped to 41% on the back of a one-time super tax imposed on the banks and changes in tax structure of the bank.
?  While we have a BUY stance on ABL with a TP of PKR132/sh, the scrip may witness some near term pressure on account of lower than expected result.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on March 18, 2016, 02:12:38 PM
AKD Daily
ABL: Tough times ahead, strategic shift needed
CY15 remained a challenging year for ABL marked by 1) lower interest rates (effective 350bps reduction in policy rate), 2) weak credit growth (9.2%YoY in CY15) and 3) persistent structural constraints (introduction of TR, narrowing down of IRC and imposition of WHT on banking transactions). With NIMs likely to continue treading downwards on upcoming maturities (as ~34% of the PIB book matures in CY16-17) amid lower interest rates, we expect ABL's earnings to decelerate more than peers with key reasons being: 1) the bank's limited presence in the consumer lending space (an area aggressively tapped by peers to support NIMs) and 2) lack of support from its non-interest income profile (23% of total income vs. B-6 (ex. ABL) avg. of 32% in CY15). With regards to former, while ABL boasts of the best-in-class asset quality metrics (NPL ratio of 6.4% and coverage at 87%), the bank's conservative approach on the lending front is likely to be a key problem area where we now expect single-digit loan growth for ABL in CY16 against B-6 average of 13%. That said, capital gains (unrealized gains: PkR22bn) and swift implementation of CPEC projects  remain key upside risks to earnings. We revise down our earnings expectations for CY16F/CY17F by 12%/15% while our TP goes down by 13% to PkR104.2/sh. While concerns on earnings are valid, ABL's CY16F valuation set (P/B: 0.99x, P/E: 6.9x, and D/Y: 8.7%) still appears un-stretched relative to the B-5 peer group (P/B: 1.2x, P/E: 7.4x, and D/Y: 7.6%) making room for price performance.
CY15 Result Review: ABL posted consolidated NPAT of PkR15.3bn (EPS: PkR13.37) in CY15 vs. NPAT of PkR15.2bn (EPS: PkR13.28) in CY14, up 1%YoY. In 4QCY15 alone, the bank recorded 27% decline in profit to PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR2.87) versus profit of PkR4.5bn (EPS: PkR3.95) in 3QCY15. Key CY15 result highlights included: (i) NII up 28%YoY on balance sheet growth, (ii) provision expenses going down by 5%YoY to PkR1.52bn, (iii) unlike its peers, ABL recorded 22%YoY drop in non-interest income primarily on account of lower capital gains (down 79%YoY) and (iv) 11%YoY increase in expenses. The sequential downtrend in profitability (27%QoQ) was primarily on account of higher provision charge of PkR1.05bn in 4QCY15 against reversal of PkR75mn in 3QCY15.In addition, ABL announced a final interim dividend of PkR1.75/share taking total CY15 payout to PkR7/share (payout ratio: 53%).
Earnings to bear the brunt of lower margins: ABL's NIMs are expected to continue declining in CY16F where even a 50bps increase in DR this year is not going to be enough to turn the table around. In this regard, problem areas exist in the form of 1) limited presence in the high-yielding consumer banking business, 2) higher funding costs as CASA remains at 74% and 3) upcoming PIB maturities lowering yield on earnings assets. Additionally, while peer banks are likely to derive earnings support from their non-interest income segments, ABL falls behind in that regard too with less than 25% contribution. Thus, we lower our earnings expectations for CY16F/CY17F by 12%/15% respectively.
Valuation and investment perspective: Having lost 24% since Jan'15, ABL now trades at a P/B and P/E of 1.4x and 7.5x, respectively. Despite lack of dynamism on the lending front, the CY16F valuation set (P/B: 0.99x, P/E:6.9x, and D/Y: 8.7%) appears un-stretched relative to the B-5 peer group (P/B: 1.2x, P/E: 7.4x, and D/Y: 7.6%).  Our revised TP of PKR104.2/sh offers an upside of 21% from current price level.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on March 18, 2016, 05:42:22 PM
Owner manhos hai apna share nahi chalata
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on March 19, 2016, 09:23:32 PM
Can anyone tell yeh kabe chalay ga 125
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: zelmc on March 19, 2016, 09:50:11 PM
Can anyone tell yeh kabe chalay ga 125
Banking stocks are very much under pressure for a long time due to low discount rate and foreign selling. Most of the banking stocks are trading at very low P/E ratio. At present, it is almost impossible for ABL to touch 125 and even 100 is looking very difficult. There is a possibility of re-rating of many stocks, if Pakistan is included in the emerging markets index of Morgan Stanely or if there is an increase in the discount rate.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 25, 2016, 01:21:52 PM
ABL: 1QCY16 EPS estimated at PKR4.3/sh
The board meeting of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled on 26th Apr’16 to consider financial results for the period ended 1QCY16. We preview ABL to post earnings of PKR4.92bn (EPS: PKR4.3) in 1QCY16, depicting a growth of 17%YoY and 51%QoQ respectively. Along with the result announcement, we expect ABL to announce first interim dividend of PKR2.0/sh. The growth in earnings on YoY basis comes primarily due to 12%YoY growth in book size while on a sequential basis, the expected growth in earnings comes about due to i) lower provisioning expense in 1QCY16, note the bank realized heavy impairment of PKR1.8bn (EPS impact: PKR1.6) in 4QCY15, ii) higher FX gains as 68% of the bank’s FX bond portfolio matured in 1QCY16, likely yielding exchange gains of PKR0.45/sh and iii) lower admin expenses. We currently have an Overweight stance on the scrip with a TP of PKR118/sh. At last closing price, the stock offered a total return of 39% and traded at CY16E forward P/E and P/B of 6.4x and 1.1x, respectively.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alicima on April 26, 2016, 12:28:40 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/wld1ye.jpg)
(http://i63.tinypic.com/30ag8j9.jpg)
CONSOLIDATED
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2816gcx.jpg)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 26, 2016, 12:37:56 PM
eps & dps both below expectations

Core earnings however were good, final eps was low due large impairment charge on investments ..
Imho ABL should post 14+ eps next year

on course for 14 eps 8 dps
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on April 28, 2016, 09:42:19 PM
Today a lot of volume Kiya hoga ab
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 28, 2016, 10:59:09 PM
Today a lot of volume Kiya hoga ab

i think abl is very well placed to benefit from credit growth coming from CPEC projects
they have lots of capital and a reasonable deposit base
Its my biggest position in banks (at an average of 93) and i intend to hold it for another 2-3 years

 :fingerscrossed1:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on April 29, 2016, 12:30:28 AM
Wht rate u see after 2-3 years
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on April 29, 2016, 01:05:14 PM
ABL: Earnings revised up, 'Buy' intact with a TP of Rs109
 
April 29, 2016 (JS Research)
 
(PDF report is also attached)
Post management conference call and review of 1Q2016 detailed accounts, we tweak up our earnings forecasts for Allied Bank Limited (ABL) by 3-6% over 2016E-18E.
However, our Target Price remains intact at Rs109 as we slightly increase our bank's payout ratio assumption.
We reiterate our 'Buy' rating on ABL, as it offers a total return of 30%. The stock trades at 2016E P/B of 1.03x and offers a 2016E dividend yield of 8%.
ABL posted a PAT of Rs4.79bn (EPS: Rs4.18) in 1Q2016, up 14% YoY. ABL's 1Q2016 NII remained flat YoY, whereas Non-Core Income improved by 24% YoY. On a sequential basis, earnings improved by 47% QoQ.
In their call, ABL's management apprised that they are not expecting double-digit growth in their loan book in 2016 due to lack of demand from the private sector.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on May 17, 2016, 11:37:54 PM
ABL: 1QCY16 result review and conference call highlights

We review ABL bank’s 1QCY16 result and present main highlights of post result conference call & investor presentation. To recall ABL posted a NPAT of PKR4.8bn in 1QCY16 (up 46.4/12.9% QoQ/YoY respectively), translating into an EPS of PKR4.21. The result also accompanied an interim dividend of PKR1.75/sh. On a sequential basis, earnings jump is mainly attributable to the stronger dividend income (up 85.4% QoQ), gain on sale of securities (up 275.0% QoQ) and lower provisioning expense (down 73.7% QoQ).
Overall after incorporating 1QCY16 results and important conference call highlights our investment case for the bank remains unchanged. Trading at a CY16/17 P/B of 1.1/1.0x, offering an upside of 51.7% to our Dec-16 TP of Rs133.6/sh we restate our BUY call for the scrip.
Recommendation
Trading a CY16/17E P/B of 1.1/1.0x and offering an upside of 51.7% to our Dec-16 TP we assign ABL a BUY rating.
Key valuation methodology & triggers
· Dec-16 price target: PKR133.6/sh based on two staged Gordon growth methodology.
· Upside triggers: (1) Reversal in interest rate cycle, and (2) reversal in investment provisions.
· Downside triggers: (1) further cut in DR, and (2) unexpected provision expense.

Alfalah Securities
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on May 27, 2016, 09:24:54 PM
Despatch of Interim Dividend Warrants

http://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/082452.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on June 04, 2016, 05:53:44 PM
Wht will be affect of budget put some light chance of 125
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on June 16, 2016, 06:20:16 AM
ABL: 1QCY16 result review and conference call highlights

We review ABL bank’s 1QCY16 result and present main highlights of post result conference call & investor presentation. To recall ABL posted a NPAT of PKR4.8bn in 1QCY16 (up 46.4/12.9% QoQ/YoY respectively), translating into an EPS of PKR4.21. The result also accompanied an interim dividend of PKR1.75/sh. On a sequential basis, earnings jump is mainly attributable to the stronger dividend income (up 85.4% QoQ), gain on sale of securities (up 275.0% QoQ) and lower provisioning expense (down 73.7% QoQ).
Overall after incorporating 1QCY16 results and important conference call highlights our investment case for the bank remains unchanged. Trading at a CY16/17 P/B of 1.1/1.0x, offering an upside of 51.7% to our Dec-16 TP of Rs133.6/sh we restate our BUY call for the scrip.
Recommendation
Trading a CY16/17E P/B of 1.1/1.0x and offering an upside of 51.7% to our Dec-16 TP we assign ABL a BUY rating.
Key valuation methodology & triggers
· Dec-16 price target: PKR133.6/sh based on two staged Gordon growth methodology.
· Upside triggers: (1) Reversal in interest rate cycle, and (2) reversal in investment provisions.
· Downside triggers: (1) further cut in DR, and (2) unexpected provision expense.

Alfalah Securities
This share is already in big hands. They don't trade.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on June 28, 2016, 04:29:55 AM
When this will go up to 133
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on July 03, 2016, 08:44:48 PM
I'm always looking to buy it in 82-85. Good yield with potential to go up in medium term as the policy cycle reverses.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on July 28, 2016, 11:55:34 AM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): 1HCY16 EPS to clock in at PKR6.89, up 7%YoY
The Board of Directors of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to meet on Aug10’16 to discuss financial results for 1HCY16. We forecast the bank to post earnings of PKR7.9bn (EPS: PKR6.89) in 1HCY16 compared to PKR7.4bn (EPS: PKR6.42) in 1HCY15, up 7%YoY. The result announcement is likely to accompany 2nd interim cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking the 1HCY16 payout to PKR3.5/sh.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on July 28, 2016, 02:47:08 PM
Worst share of mkt the owner don't want tht the share price go up
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: aftab iqbal on July 28, 2016, 03:46:23 PM
not worst but good one. Hold and get dividend 8% of principle amount from here
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: jamalakhter on July 29, 2016, 10:34:15 AM
Worst share of mkt the owner don't want tht the share price go up
it,s majority shares held by workers ,floating shares r limited
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on July 29, 2016, 10:47:03 AM
All shares r with owner no one interested to buy ABL potential to touch 175
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alidxb on July 29, 2016, 11:04:42 AM
All shares r with owner no one interested to buy ABL potential to touch 175
Agree. Never buy this manipulated  junk.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on July 29, 2016, 04:23:46 PM
All shares r with owner no one interested to buy ABL potential to touch 175
Agree. Never buy this manipulated  junk.

keepbuying :P
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on July 30, 2016, 09:35:21 PM
Wht is the expectation of 2nd quarter earnings
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on July 30, 2016, 11:41:58 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): 1HCY16 EPS to clock in at PKR6.89, up 7%YoY
The Board of Directors of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to meet on Aug10’16 to discuss financial results for 1HCY16. We forecast the bank to post earnings of PKR7.9bn (EPS: PKR6.89) in 1HCY16 compared to PKR7.4bn (EPS: PKR6.42) in 1HCY15, up 7%YoY. The result announcement is likely to accompany 2nd interim cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking the 1HCY16 payout to PKR3.5/sh.

bma

Wht is the expectation of 2nd quarter earnings

 :rtfm:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on July 31, 2016, 11:53:13 AM
All shares r with owner no one interested to buy ABL potential to touch 175
If you want quick gains, you should have chosen the scrips which are either manipulated or have an interest from foreigners. For example, buy Efert if you like an industry whose business environment is volatile. These are bad times, so you buy the stock at depressed rates with hope of reversal and stock performing subsequently. ABL is a pure yield play for now, growth in Banks is not blitz but mashroom, so you reap the rewards gradually.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Dhillon on August 06, 2016, 10:11:02 PM
ABL: EPS to clock in at PKR 2.91 for 2QCY16
The board of ABL is expected to announce 2QCY16 results on 10th Aug-2016. We expect the bank to post a profit after tax of PKR 3,327mn translating into an EPS of PKR 2.91 down 31% QoQ against PKR 4,815mn (EPS: PKR 4.21) for the previous quarter. Super tax impact has been incorporated in 2Q expectation in line with last years practice. Additionally, taking a conservative view we do not expect ABL to realize capital gains in order to support earnings. It is possible that we witness a reversal of provision as the total charge (PKR 276mn) in 1QCY15 was considerably lower than Dec-2015 (PKR 1,524mn) which may provide relief to the earnings. A dividend of PKR 1.75/share is also in the offing.

AHL
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 10, 2016, 12:21:25 PM
eps 3.33 dps 1.75
adjusted (for super tax, cap gains & deferred tax)  eps around 3.2 i think
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/084791.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alicima on August 10, 2016, 12:42:31 PM
eps 3.33 dps 1.75
adjusted (for super tax, cap gains & deferred tax)  eps around 3.2 i think
https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/084791.pdf
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2n0nrt.jpg)
(http://i67.tinypic.com/13ykrkp.jpg)
(http://i66.tinypic.com/10okxw1.jpg)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 10, 2016, 06:26:20 PM

·         Allied Bank Limited (ABL) just announced its 1HCY16 financial results. The bank posted unconsolidated 1H2016 PAT of PKR8.6bn (?17% YoY), translating into EPS of PKR7.51/sh while 2Q2016 EPS clocked in at PKR3.33/sh (?21% YoY), outperforming our estimates of PKR2.90/sh. Outperformance is primarily attributable to higher capital gains and provision reversals during the period.
·         ABL also announced an interim cash payout of PKR1.75/sh along with the results, taking half year payout to PKR3.50/sh, flat on YoY basis.
·         Net Interest Income (NII) inched up by 3% YoY during the quarter and was in line with our estimates.
·         Non-funded income of the bank expanded by 21% YoY primarily led by sizable capital gains booked during the quarter. Other income on the other hand normalized during the quarter (-99% YoY), where the bank had booked non-recurring delayed refunds amounting to PKR820mn in the same period last year.
·         The bank also booked provision reversal of PKR95mn which was partially offset by higher impairment charge on investments (PKR62.7mn).
·         Our investment case on ABL is currently ‘Under Review’ and we will update it post release of detailed quarterly financials.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Shakir123 on August 10, 2016, 08:54:05 PM
Whts the target price
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 15, 2016, 10:29:34 AM
ABL: Estimates trimmed on weaker NFI expectation, Buy rating intact
 
ABL posted an EPS of PKR3.37 (down/up 19.8/19.4% QoQ/YoY respectively) in the 2QCY16, taking 1HCY16 EPS to PKR7.58 up 15.7% YoY.  With the result, the bank announced an interim dividend of PKR1.75/sh (1HCY16 DPS PKR3.5). Net interest income of the bank clocked in at PKR9.2bn up 8.3/3.3% QoQ/YoY respectively. The sequential increase in funded income is owed to 2.3% increase in interest income amid 3.7% decline in interest expense. Non-markup income of the bank stood at PKR3.3bn (down/up 15.1/18.6% QoQ/YoY respectively), the QoQ decline comes on the back of lower dividend income (down 61.1%) and absence of compensation on delayed tax refunds which stood at PKR952/860mn 2QCY14/15. Provision reversals for the quarter stood at PKR33.0mn vs. a PKR276mn provisions seen in the 1QCY16.

Total deposits of the bank reached PKR772bn up 5.1% from level seen at the start of the year. More importantly CASA ratio at the QEjun16 stood at 77.8% up 440bps from Dec-15 level (reflecting a 16% increase in current accounts). Advances were up 12.1/13.1% QoQ/YoY and 6.0% from the YE15.

Overall incorporating the latest results and key takeaways from the conference call we cut our CY17/18E EPS by 3.3/3.4% (earnings cut mainly reflects expectation of lower compensation on delayed tax refunds) and Dec-16 TP by 5.7% to PKR123.5/sh (previous TP PKR131.0/sh), however with a 32.1% upside we maintain our BUY rating for the scrip.

Recommendation

·         After incorporating 2QCY16 result and key takeaways from the conference call we cut our CY17/18E EPS by 3.3/3.4% and Dec-16 TP by 5.7% to PKR123.5/sh. However trading at CY16/17E P/B of 1.2/1.1x and offering an upside of 32.1% we maintain BUY rating on ABL.

Key valuation methodology and triggers

·         Dec-16 price target: PKR123.5/sh based on two staged Gordon growth methodology.

·         Upside triggers: Continuation of reversals from loan book, earlier reversal of interest rate cycle.

·         Downside trigger: Extended low interest rate environment, unexpected provisioning expense.

 Al falah sec
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on August 15, 2016, 10:33:36 AM
ABL: Reiterate 'Buy' with higher TP; discount to peers remains unjustified
 
August 15, 2016 (JS Research)
 
(PDF report is also attached)
Post Allied Bank's (ABL) 1H2016 earnings announcement and its subsequent analyst conference call, we tweak-up our earnings estimates by 1-2% over 2016E-18F, resulting in our Dec-2016 TP increasing to Rs103 (Rs100 previously).
We now expect the bank to post 2% YoY higher earnings of Rs13.41/share, stemming from (1) likely 64% YoY lower provisioning expenses and (2) higher capital gains (1H2016, +6x YoY).
We reiterate our 'Buy' rating on ABL. The stock trades at a 10% discount to peer multiples with 2016E P/B of 1.06x vs. industry's 2016E P/B of 1.30x, even though bank's sustainable Tier-I ROE stands at 17%, at par with industry's average.
ABL reported 17% YoY higher earnings of Rs8.60bn (EPS: Rs7.51) for 1H2016, led by 56% YoY lower provisioning expenses and capital gains on disposals of PIBs.
Bank's CASA reached an all-time high of 78% as at Jun-2016 due to 17% YTD growth in zer
...
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: aftab iqbal on August 15, 2016, 11:13:45 AM
yeah this is to be bought
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 16, 2016, 03:00:58 PM

ROE sustainability seen despite maturity of PIBs, reiterate Buy
 
We tweak our earnings estimates for Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) by modest -1/-3/+3% for CY16/17/18 post 2Q result and analyst call.
While market concerns on heavy maturity of government bonds have restricted the stock price return in ABL (3/6 mth underperformance of 4-30% vs big peers), we opine the impact is quite manageable given ABL’s growth strategy and lower than expected maturity of government bonds.
The stock trades at 30% discount to average P/BV of UBL & MCB and is expected to offer robust ROE of 17-18% over 2016-19E, in our view. We reiterate our Buy call on ABL with a PO of PRs118 (based on justified P/BV).
 
See the Morning Shout dated August 16, 2016, on http://www.kasbdirect.com/downloads/research/MS16-08-16.pdf for details
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 17, 2016, 08:27:49 PM
ABL: 9MCY16 EPS to clock in at PKR11.1, up ~7%YoY; We preview the Allied Bank Limited (ABL) to post earnings of PKR12.7bn (EPS: PKR11.1) compared to PKR11.9bn (EPS: PKR10.4) in 9MCY15, witnessing a nominal jump of 7%YoY. The result announcement is likely to accompany a 3rd interim cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking the 9MCY16 payout to PKR5.25/sh. The growth in earnings can largely be explained by robust growth of 27%YoY in the bank’s Non-Funded Income (NFI) on the back of 5.3xYoY higher capital gains. The Net Interest Income (NII) after provisions on the other hand is expected to witness a slight decline of 1%YoY during 9MCY16, to PKR26bn on account of lower average DR during the period. On sequential basis, earnings are likely to increase by 7%QoQ largely due to lower effective taxation. However on PBT level, the earnings are likely to decline by 14%QoQ on the back of i) 7%QoQ lower core NII after provisions and ii) 50%QoQ lower capital gains realized during 3QCY16. We currently have an Overweight stance on the scrip with a Target Price of PKR125/sh offering a total return of 30% on the last closing.

BMA
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: alicima on October 21, 2016, 06:05:38 PM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/etd284.jpg)
(http://i64.tinypic.com/2qx3y49.jpg)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on October 22, 2016, 01:40:38 AM
quarterly dps increased to 2    :biggthumpup:
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 25, 2016, 06:45:33 PM
We reiterate our ‘Buy’ call on Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) with revised up Target Price of Rs114, where we incorporate 9M2016 financials and rollforward our valuations to Dec-2017.

Our liking for ABL is premised on (1) a comfortable Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), (2) one of the lowest Cost to Income ratio in the industry, (3) notable improvement in Infection ratio. ABL trades at 2017F P/B of 1.1x and offers a decent 2017F dividend yield of 7%.

In 9M2016, ABL posted 3% YoY higher earnings of Rs10.68/share on the back of 13% YoY higher Non-Interest Income, where growth was supported by 27% YoY growth in Fee Income.

As of Sept-2016, ABL’s asset size has grown to Rs1,030bn led by 3% YTD growth in Investments. Note that ~Rs100bn PIB Investments that matured during 3Q2016 have been parked in shorter tenor papers (T-Bills), as the bank expects interest rates to pick-up from here onwards.

JS
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 25, 2016, 07:00:07 PM
 
Down to Neutral on price performance
and estimates cut
Down to Neutral on price performance, estimate cut
We downgrade Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) to Neutral from Buy with a revised Justified P/BV based
PO of PRs105/sh. The rating downgrade is primarily based on stock price performance in
3/6mth of 16/15% and revision in earnings estimates by -1/-9/-8% over CY16-18E. ABL’s
strategy to defend its market share via branch expansion is likely to deliver volume growth,
however, industry’s environment and bank’s own asset position should result in pressure on
bank’s NIMs. ABL’s 3Q earnings of PRs3.17/sh are broadly in-line with our estimates. We
believe ABL is likely to face at least three quarter of not-so-exciting earnings print ahead
thereby setting the stage for more range-bound activity for the stock price. With ROE of the
banks projected to remain 15-17%, we contend the key reason for further build-up of valuation
premium is absent for ABL. On comparative basis, D/Y of 8% fares better than the average of
6.8%.
3Q16 earnings-provisioning reversal saved the day
ABL’s 3Q16 earnings broadly reflect a seasonal slowdown in economic activity in 3Q and the
impact of re-pricing of assets. The 3Q16 earnings is largely supported by big reversal in loan
provisioning of PRs472mn. Overall, NIMs of the bank shrunk 80bp in 3Q16 (to 3.6%) which is
higher than the drop seen in results of other banks and mainly due to combination of re-pricing
of both bond portfolio (net PRs140bn retirement of high-yield bond was anticipated at the start
of the year or 43% of bank’s bond portfolio)and loan book (due to increased competition
among banks). We expect NIMs to show seasonal improvement in 4Q16. A sequential slowdown was also visible in bank’s non-fund income whereby fee & commission income dropped
12% QoQ. Admin cost has picked up pace and is up 9% YoY which is in sync with bank’s
branch expansion. ABL cost/income ratio has increased to 46% up 600bp YoY.
Balance sheet details show mixed trend
A key positive is 3Q16 is reversal in provisioning on loan portfolio arising from cash recoveries
on a loan extended to a refinery. Bank’s loans shrunk 2% QoQ due to seasonal retirement of
commodity loans. Bank’s Treasury bill portfolio is up 61% while bond portfolio is down 31%
QoQ due to scheduled retirement. The big shift in investment book from government’s long
duration bonds to low-duration treasury bills show bank’s policy decision on taking low risk. Tbill accounts for 40% of bank’s investment book in 3Q16 up from 25% in 2Q16. We believe ABL
will likely further build up its portfolio in T-bill in coming quarters.
New initiatives may take time to deliver result
Recognizing the need to tinker with the bank’s plain-vanilla business model in the face of
changing industry dynamics, ABL has decided to enter erstwhile untapped areas. However, we
believe the bottom-line impact of the new initiatives is likely to remain immaterial in the nearterm while the risk of execution and anticipated response remain. During CY16, ABL has made
important strides making its presence in Islamic Banking by opening 35 branches since 3Q15
(almost 50% of new branches). We believe ABL will continue to build its franchise in Islamic
Banking. Similarly, ABL is also gearing itself to make a foray into branchless banking and has
entered into agreement with the largest telecom operator. International diversification seems
another obvious choice whereby ABL is targeting Middle East as a first step. Other areas where
ABL may become aggressive are trade financing, SME and consumer banking.

kasb
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MAR on December 24, 2016, 01:11:24 AM
yeah this is to be bought

When is it to be Sold ? Target Pls.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: raxid on January 19, 2017, 01:40:36 PM
currently ABL trading @ attractive price,seniors guide should buy at this level
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MAR on February 01, 2017, 09:48:05 PM
currently ABL trading @ attractive price,seniors guide should buy at this level

U asked and "seniors" bought ;)
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: hasnain0099 on February 02, 2017, 05:15:01 PM
currently ABL trading @ attractive price,seniors guide should buy at this level
ABL is a very lucrative medium/long term investment. Expect a good result as delayed dividends which spoiled the party last quarter are likely to yield a positive surprise.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 06, 2017, 01:19:38 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): CY16 EPS estimated at PKR13.8, up 3%YoY
 
The Board of Directors of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to meet on 9th Feb’17 to consider the financial results for CY16. We preview the bank to post earnings of PKR15.7bn (EPS: PKR13.8), depicting a growth of 3%YoY. The growth in earnings is expected due to i) ~2%YoY growth in Net Interest Income (NII) after provisions on the back of absence of one-off impairment loss taken in 4QCY15 and ii) ~ 13%YoY jump in Non Funded Income (NFI) on the back of higher capital gains.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 09, 2017, 01:52:49 PM
ABL: CY16 EPS clocked in at PKR12.6, down 5%YoY
 
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) reported earnings of PKR14.4bn (EPS: PKR12.6) for CY16, down 5%YoY.

The result announcement also accompanied a final cash dividend of PKR1.75/sh, taking total payout during CY16 to PKR7.25/sh

Despite reversals of PKR260mn (as against provisioning expenses of PKR1.5bn during CY15), bank’s Net-Interest Income after provisions declined 4%YoY to PKR33.5bn, owing to 10%YoY decline in markup earned on the back of asset repricing on lower rates.

Non Funded Income has been the saving grace, reporting a growth of 15%YoY to PKR11.2bn, largely on the back of 3.0x higher capital gains realized in CY16.

On quarterly basis, the bank reported earnings of PKR2.2bn (EPS: PKR1.9), down 39%QoQ. The decline comes largely on the back of 30%QoQ growth in administrative expenses.

The scrip is currently trading at CY17E P/E of 7.5x and P/B of 1.3x and offers a total return of 25% at our TP of PKR132/sh.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on February 09, 2017, 02:29:22 PM
stinker !
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: RNE on February 11, 2017, 10:34:06 AM
One of the worse banks in the sector!
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 14, 2017, 11:53:14 AM
ABL: Upgrade to 'Buy' on recent underperformance
 
February 14, 2017 (JS Research)
 
(PDF report is also attached)
We revisit our investment case for Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) post 2016 results and management conference call.
On the back of shrinking yields on loans and increasing operational costs (led by branch expansion), we revise down our earnings forecasts for ABL by 8-13% over 2017E-19F.
In tandem, we cut our Dec-2017 Target Price to Rs122 from Rs130 previously; however we upgrade the stock by one notch to 'Buy' from 'Hold' because of stock's recent underperformance.
Going forward, we anticipate improvement in market share on the back of aggressive branch expansion with ~100 new branches expected in 2017 as well.
We believe further upside can unlock from expansion of CASA on the back of growth in zero-cost deposits as ABL currently maintains an average CASA of 78% where 32% of total deposits are non-remunerative current accounts.

Earnings revision
(Rs) 2017E 2018F 2019F
Revised EPS 11.57 11.99 13.32
Previous EPS 13.27 13.58 14.50
% change -13% -12% -8%
Source: JS Research
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Valueestimator on June 02, 2017, 12:07:21 PM
Buy  ABL, target 120
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on June 03, 2017, 12:20:05 AM
Buy  ABL, target 120

first big banks will move now thanks to their huge corrections
mind you, even after the big 3 correcting they are more expensive than abl
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: SBM on June 03, 2017, 12:21:01 AM
Buy  ABL, target 120

first big banks will move now thanks to their huge corrections
mind you, even after the big 3 correcting they are more expensive than abl

ABL is my biggest holding now
 hasnt performed but one can hold comfortable and keep enjoying quarterly dividends
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Valueestimator on July 26, 2017, 02:35:55 PM
Buy ABL before Q2 results, target 96 IA
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on July 27, 2017, 04:28:17 PM
Allied Bank Limited - Earnings growth recession set to continue; Market-weight

We reinstate coverage on Allied Bank Ltd (ABL), Pakistan’s fourth largest bank by deposits, with a ‘Market-weight’ rating and P/BV based TP of PKR99/sh.
ABL finds itself in a prolonged phase of earnings growth recession due to combination of lower interest rate environment and balance sheet positioning.
Many of the initiatives that ABL has embarked on of late (non-fund income, Islamic banking, Int’l footprint, etc) are likely to take time to deliver meaningful earnings impact. Meanwhile, a key support from ABL’s equity portfolio, largely comprising of IPPs, may continue.
ABL’s capital adequacy at 20.84% (Tier II, highest in the industry) is impressive and shows room for balance sheet growth. However, maintaining asset quality and liability mix would be a challenge in case bank decides to shade off its steady growth strategy.
With bank’s ROE (12.9% in CY17E) unlikely to see any meaningful uptrend in mid-term, we believe premium valuation for ABL may not be justified.
Reinstate with Market-weight stance; earnings growth recession set to continue: We reinstate coverage on Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) with Market Weight stance and a justified P/BV based TP of PKR99. While we acknowledge ABL’s unique earnings profile and recent initiatives to take bank’s model away from plain-vanilla banking, we believe the earnings growth recession for ABL is set to persist with our estimates suggesting 3-year earnings CAGR of <1%. Our earnings estimates are 19-24% below consensus estimates. We see two key drags for ABL’s earnings stemming from bank’s asset mix.

#1 Asset re-pricing: A big maturity of high-yield PIBs in 3Q16 and another in 3Q17 (an estimated PKR85bn for ABL or 35% of PIB portfolio) will result in asset re-pricing of investment bank comprising 53% of total asset mix.  We estimate 3-4% lower yields on PIBs to result in 60-80bps pruning in bank’s earnings yield/NIMs.

#2 Credit spread adjusted down: Secondly, ABL’s advances portfolio mainly comprise of corporate and commercial loans (estimated 70-75%) where competition is already eating away credit spread. For ABL, the average credit spread on loan portfolio has come off by 25-30bps to merely 40bps in 2016. We don’t expect credit spread to recover any time soon as competition among banks for grabbing the high-quality clients has picked up post maturity of PIBs and deposit growth. ABL’s advances growth in CY16 came in at 2.6% significantly underperforming the industry’s advances growth of 17%.

Recent initiative may take time to contribute: Faced with competition in core areas, ABL is stepping away from its plain-vanilla business model. Of late, we see ABL’s growing focus on building Islamic banking franchise, going for international diversification of business, testing the water in consumer banking space and growing fee & commission income (remittance business, ADC). Except for the latter, many of the initiatives will likely take time to deliver meaningful contribution to earnings, in our view. ABL’s fee & commission as %age of total income stood at 9% in 2016, which is one of the lowest among its peers.

High CAR and asset quality: ABL’s capital adequacy at 20.84% (Highest Tier II, Tier I is second only to MCB among big banks) is impressive and shows room for balance sheet growth (leverage of 10x). ABL’s asset quality is also high with NPL ratio of 5.75% - one of the lowest in the industry.  However, maintaining asset quality and liability mix would be a challenge in case bank opts for an aggressive growth strategy, in our view, given current industry dynamics.

Support from unique equity portfolio: Meanwhile, a key support from ABL’s equity portfolio may continue. Equity portfolio contributes 15% to total revenue and 70% to company’s asset revaluation reserves. Most of the stocks are mainly high D/Y, currency hedged sectors in Oil & Gas, IPPs & fertilizer (85% portfolio). We see a stable growth of 6% in dividend contribution of ABL’s equity portfolio.

Investment thesis: With current valuation and industry dynamics, the scope for ABL’s stock price delivering any meaningful outperformance is low. ABL’s current D/Y of 7.8%  is healthy and may continue to provide downside cushion to stock price. We see flattish earnings profile ahead for ABL with bank’s ROE unlikely to see any meaningful uptrend. This will mean premium valuation may not justify.

Key Risks: Key risks to our investment thesis stem from: (i) equity market rally, allowing ABL to book above-expected capital gains on its equity portfolio, (ii) risk to our call of lower for longer interest rate scenario, and (iii) reversal in provisioning on advances portfolio.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Valueestimator on August 02, 2017, 02:17:21 PM
Allied Bank Limited - Earnings growth recession set to continue; Market-weight

We reinstate coverage on Allied Bank Ltd (ABL), Pakistan’s fourth largest bank by deposits, with a ‘Market-weight’ rating and P/BV based TP of PKR99/sh.
ABL finds itself in a prolonged phase of earnings growth recession due to combination of lower interest rate environment and balance sheet positioning.
Many of the initiatives that ABL has embarked on of late (non-fund income, Islamic banking, Int’l footprint, etc) are likely to take time to deliver meaningful earnings impact. Meanwhile, a key support from ABL’s equity portfolio, largely comprising of IPPs, may continue.
ABL’s capital adequacy at 20.84% (Tier II, highest in the industry) is impressive and shows room for balance sheet growth. However, maintaining asset quality and liability mix would be a challenge in case bank decides to shade off its steady growth strategy.
With bank’s ROE (12.9% in CY17E) unlikely to see any meaningful uptrend in mid-term, we believe premium valuation for ABL may not be justified.
Reinstate with Market-weight stance; earnings growth recession set to continue: We reinstate coverage on Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) with Market Weight stance and a justified P/BV based TP of PKR99. While we acknowledge ABL’s unique earnings profile and recent initiatives to take bank’s model away from plain-vanilla banking, we believe the earnings growth recession for ABL is set to persist with our estimates suggesting 3-year earnings CAGR of <1%. Our earnings estimates are 19-24% below consensus estimates. We see two key drags for ABL’s earnings stemming from bank’s asset mix.

#1 Asset re-pricing: A big maturity of high-yield PIBs in 3Q16 and another in 3Q17 (an estimated PKR85bn for ABL or 35% of PIB portfolio) will result in asset re-pricing of investment bank comprising 53% of total asset mix.  We estimate 3-4% lower yields on PIBs to result in 60-80bps pruning in bank’s earnings yield/NIMs.

#2 Credit spread adjusted down: Secondly, ABL’s advances portfolio mainly comprise of corporate and commercial loans (estimated 70-75%) where competition is already eating away credit spread. For ABL, the average credit spread on loan portfolio has come off by 25-30bps to merely 40bps in 2016. We don’t expect credit spread to recover any time soon as competition among banks for grabbing the high-quality clients has picked up post maturity of PIBs and deposit growth. ABL’s advances growth in CY16 came in at 2.6% significantly underperforming the industry’s advances growth of 17%.

Recent initiative may take time to contribute: Faced with competition in core areas, ABL is stepping away from its plain-vanilla business model. Of late, we see ABL’s growing focus on building Islamic banking franchise, going for international diversification of business, testing the water in consumer banking space and growing fee & commission income (remittance business, ADC). Except for the latter, many of the initiatives will likely take time to deliver meaningful contribution to earnings, in our view. ABL’s fee & commission as %age of total income stood at 9% in 2016, which is one of the lowest among its peers.

High CAR and asset quality: ABL’s capital adequacy at 20.84% (Highest Tier II, Tier I is second only to MCB among big banks) is impressive and shows room for balance sheet growth (leverage of 10x). ABL’s asset quality is also high with NPL ratio of 5.75% - one of the lowest in the industry.  However, maintaining asset quality and liability mix would be a challenge in case bank opts for an aggressive growth strategy, in our view, given current industry dynamics.

Support from unique equity portfolio: Meanwhile, a key support from ABL’s equity portfolio may continue. Equity portfolio contributes 15% to total revenue and 70% to company’s asset revaluation reserves. Most of the stocks are mainly high D/Y, currency hedged sectors in Oil & Gas, IPPs & fertilizer (85% portfolio). We see a stable growth of 6% in dividend contribution of ABL’s equity portfolio.

Investment thesis: With current valuation and industry dynamics, the scope for ABL’s stock price delivering any meaningful outperformance is low. ABL’s current D/Y of 7.8%  is healthy and may continue to provide downside cushion to stock price. We see flattish earnings profile ahead for ABL with bank’s ROE unlikely to see any meaningful uptrend. This will mean premium valuation may not justify.

Key Risks: Key risks to our investment thesis stem from: (i) equity market rally, allowing ABL to book above-expected capital gains on its equity portfolio, (ii) risk to our call of lower for longer interest rate scenario, and (iii) reversal in provisioning on advances portfolio.

bma
'
must have stock for portfolio
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 15, 2017, 05:11:43 PM
ABL’s 2Q2017 earnings to clock in at PKR 2.11/share, down 36.7%YoY due to margin compression and lower capital gains: Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce 2Q2017 results on 17th August 2017. We project the bank to announce PKR 2.11/share in earnings for the quarter, along with a PKR 1.75/share dividend.

Total revenues in 2Q2017 are expected to decline by 12.5%YoY. The decrease is projected to be a combination of 1.2%YoY estimated attrition in investments yield owing to PIB maturities in 3Q2016 and lower forecasted capital gains at PKR856mn in 2Q2017 (vs. PKR1,492mn recorded in 2Q2016).

Operating expenses are expected to grow by 7.6%YoY in 2Q2017, in line with the recent historical trend. We expect 2Q2017 earnings to clock in at PRK 2.11/share, down 36.7%YoY due to the decline in investments yield and lower capital gains.

As of last close, ABL is trading at PBV of 0.99x, with a trailing dividend yield of 8.2%.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on August 17, 2017, 01:26:57 PM
ABL: 1H2017 EPS stood at Rs5.65, down 25% YoY
 
 August 17, 2017 (JS Research)
 
Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) announced its 1H2017 result today posting a PAT of Rs6.47bn (EPS: Rs5.65), down 25% YoY. The company also announced second interim cash dividend of Rs1.75 per share, taking 1H2017 payout to Rs3.50 per share. Earnings came higher-than-expectations on the back of continuation of reversals under provisioning expenses.
 
ABL's 2Q2017 earnings clocked in 25% YoY lower at Rs2.87bn (EPS: Rs2.51). NII during 2Q2017 declined by 10% YoY, in-line with expectations; while high base of capital gains, vis-a-vis loss during 2Q2017 dragged Non Interest Income down by 27% YoY. The bank also managed to keep its administrative expense growth at 4% YoY. On a sequential basis, PBT increased by 3% QoQ on improving NII. However, Super Tax charge during 2Q2017 pushed PAT down by 20% QoQ.
 
We keep our 'Buy' rating intact with Dec-2017 Target Price at Rs119. At current levels ABL is trading at 2017E P/B of 0.95x.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on August 23, 2017, 05:37:09 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Cheap at the price; Buy

Wednesday, 23 August 2017

By: Intermarket Securities Limited
We trim our CY17-21F EPS estimates for ABL by 6% on average which takes our Dec’18 TP down to PRs107/sh, down from PRs123/sh previously. However, we retain our Buy stance on a very attractive valuation set where ABL trades at a CY18F P/B of 0.9x and P/E of 6.9x, with a D/Y of 8.2%.
ABL will not deliver an accelerated growth trajectory; range-bound profits are likely to extend until CY18F, with the bank obstinate in not touching unrealized gains on its equity portfolio, in our view. However, c. 10% growth is possible for CY19/20F as interest rates rise, backed by superior asset quality and cost control track record.
In an environment where risks are coming to the fore for peers, ABL’s conservative approach and strong balance sheet (Jun’17 CAR: 22.1%) make it an excellent defensive stock. This will make ABL stand out in the backdrop of the KSE-100 entering bear market territory, but consistent outperformance going forward will need the bank to shed some of its ultra-conservative mindset, which may not be forthcoming.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on September 09, 2017, 08:40:19 AM
https://www.abl.com/download/financial_reports_2/financial_reports_2017/ABL-HY-30-June-2017.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on September 14, 2017, 08:55:24 PM
Foundation Research | Equities | REP-095


Ideal defensive play in uncertain times
Event
? Allied bank (ABL PA) continues to operate as a conservative deposit franchise, but
the same is it’s strength as it lowers asset contamination risk. Furthermore, lowest CA
contribution (in top 5) should allow the bank to further curtail funding cost by facelift
of its retail presence. Lastly, we believe 22% CAR is more than sufficient to sequentially
increase payout. 
? Tier-1 ROEs are to sustain around 19% and see CY17/18 Tier-1 PB of 1.2/1.1x as
unjustifiably low. Especially, when accompanied by an attractive CY17/18 DY of
8.5/9.4%. Our Jun-18 TP of Rs113.3 implies an upside of 33%.
Impact

? Conservative approach strength not a weakness in testing times: We do
acknowledge that the bank’s ultra-conservative approach impedes its growth trajectory
and expects the bank to deliver 3yr earnings CAGR of a mere 6%. However, we believe
the same is its strength, especially when operating environment toughens. The bank’s
approach to stay away from riskier asset class (indicated by management conservative
loan target), would keep asset contamination in-check (which is already one of the
lowest in FSL’s banking universe). Bank’s loan infection is merely 4.8% vs cluster’s
average of 7.7%, while 93% is already provided for vs 88% of the cluster (see Fig 1).
Hence, despite a low pre-provisioning ROA of 2.2%, Tier-1 ROEs are to stay around 19%
as focus remains on recovering Rs19bn of contaminated assets. 
? Room to further reduce its cost of funds:  The bank also has an opportunity to
further lower its deposit cost, though our valuations does not reflect that. CASA
contribution has sequentially improved to 61% (CA contribution is 36%), however it is
still one of the lowest in the industry (see Fig 2). Hence, we believe facelift of its retail
presence could further reduce its cost of funds. More impressively, non-interest cost
base has remained in check with ABL as one of the lowest cost operators in the
clusters. 
? Higher CAR should improve dividend trajectory going forward:  Lastly, as other bank
face a drag on their CAR (loan book expansion) that would restrict payout capacity,
ABL’s relatively higher CAR (22%) and conservative approach makes it a stand out.
Despite a flattish bottom-line, we do see sequential increase in the payout.  Hence,
impressive CY17/18 DY of 8.4%/9.3% makes it an ideal defensive play, especially when
uncertain macro policy direction has dampened market sentiments. 
Earnings Revision 
? We have fine tuned our CY17/18/19 earnings estimates by -6%/-3%/1% and reduced
our June-18 TP to Rs113.3/sh. 
Price Catalyst 
? Jun-18 TP: Rs113.3/sh based on Two stage Gordon Growth methodology.
? Catalyst: (1) curtailed provisioning, (2) interest rate reversal, (3) improve deposit mix.
? Risk:  (1) Delay on interest rate pick-up, (2) reduction in credit spreads.
Outlook 
? We see the stock is trading at an undemanding CY17/18 PB of 1.0/0.9x and reiterate
‘Outperform’ stance on the stock. 
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 19, 2017, 11:59:53 AM
ABL: Earnings likely to continue to decline in 9M2017
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is scheduled to announce its 9M2017 earnings on
October 24, 2017, where we expect the bank to post earnings of Rs9.80bn (EPS:
Rs8.55) in 9M2017, 20% YoY lower compared to earnings posted in the
corresponding period last year. ABL?s Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to
decline by 5% YoY in 9M2017 on the back of 3% lower Interest Earned. The bank?s
Non-Interest Income is also likely to fall by 28% YoY as we expect the bank is likely
to book modest capital gains similar to previous two quarters of 2017, vis-à-vis
Rs2.69bn booked during 9M2016. In 3Q2017 alone, earnings are likely to drop by
8% YoY to Rs3.32bn (EPS: Rs2.90) due to recognition of reversals under
provisioning expenses
That said, earnings may improve by 16% QoQ owing to absence of Super Tax in
the quarter. Alongside result, we expect ABL to announce a third interim cash
dividend of Rs1.75/share, taking 9M2017 cash payout to Rs5.25/share. We
reiterate our „Buy? stance on ABL with a Target Price of Rs124. Presently, ABL
trades at an attractive 2018E P/B of 0.9x against sector?s P/B of 1.1x and offers a
D/Y of 8%. Key risks to our investment case are (1) delay in interest rate increase
and (2) subdued asset growth

js
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 24, 2017, 12:50:27 PM
ABL: 9M2017 EPS stood at Rs8.50, down 20% YoY
 
 October 24, 2017 (JS Research)
 
Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) announced its 9M2017 result today posting a PAT of Rs9.73bn (EPS: Rs8.50), down 20% YoY. The company also announced third interim cash dividend of Rs1.75 per share, taking 9M2017 payout to Rs5.25 per share. Earnings came in-line with our expectations.
 
ABL's 3Q2017 earnings clocked in 10% YoY lower at Rs3.26bn (EPS: Rs2.85). Where NII during 3Q2017 declined by 12% YoY; operating expenses declined by 4% YoY on reversals booked against other assets and off-balance sheet obligations. Reversals under provisioning expenses also continued during 3Q2017. On a sequential basis, earnings improved by 14% YoY on 2Q Super Tax charge.
 
We keep our 'Buy' rating intact with Dec-2018 Target Price at Rs124. At current levels ABL is trading at 201E P/B of 0.97x.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on October 24, 2017, 09:35:05 PM
Flash Note


Allied Bank Limited

Provisioning Reversals Contain 3Q2017 EPS Decline to 10.1%
·        Allied Bank Limited (ABL) declared 3Q2017 standalone earnings of PKR2.85/share, and an interim dividend of PKR1.75/share; above our EPS expectation of PKR2.62/share on account of provisioning reversals. 

·        9M2017 earnings are down by a massive 20.4%YoY as capital gains came in at PKR410mn vs. PKR2,691mn in SPLY. Resultantly 9M2017 dividends of PKR5.25/share were down 4.5%YoY.

·        3Q2017 dividend of PKR1.75/share was down 12.5%YoY but in line with estimates. 

·        Net Interest Income (NII) in 3Q2017 was 5.6% below our estimates owing to higher mark-up expenses. We attribute this to high repo borrowing during the quarter. NII was down 11.6%YoY in 3Q2017 due to PIB maturities in the quarter.

·        Non-Interest Income was up 2.7%YoY with fee income growing by 9.9%.

·        Major surprise during the quarter was the booking of provisioning reversals which led to higher than expected earnings. The bank reported PKR980mn of reversals out of which PKR532mn were non-performing loan reversals. This translates into a PKR0.55/share after tax benefit.

·        Administrative expenses grew by 5.3%YoY in 3Q2017 compared to 9.0%YoY growth in 3Q2016. Due to classification of PKR448mn of off-balance sheet and other reversals within the operating expenses category, these expenses fell by 4.3%YoY.

·        While we see consistent NPL reversals as a positive, we await management guidance in regards to the nature of the remaining PKR448mn reversals, which will most likely be one-offs. Excluding these reversals earnings would have declined by 17.9%YoY.

·        Therefore while NPL reversals are a positive, so far they have not offset NIM decline. The situation is unlikely to improve in 2018 with an estimated 30.0% of their PIB portfolio maturing in the year.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on November 15, 2017, 11:23:36 PM
Allied Bank Ltd : Growing its way out of yield recession; “Overweight”
We have fined tune estimates for Allied Bank Ltd in light of recent management discussion and 3Q17 results. As a result, we cut our earnings estimates for CY17/18/19 by 10/7/2%.
We favorably view bank’s strategy to expand branch network and accumulation of low cost deposit as a means to counter low asset yield and the impact of bond re- pricing.
Similarly, bank’s initiatives (non-fund income, Islamic banking, Int’l footprint, etc) may lead to a much needed diversification of earnings base, away from plain vanilla corporate banking that ABL has been accustomed to.
ABL’s spreads are clearly on course to bottom out over the next three quarters in our view.
Meanwhile valuation has opened up post 5.3% underperformance (in 1-mth) with the stock trading at sub 1x book value and 8.6% D/Y.  We accordingly lift our rating on the stock to “Overweight”.

Reinstate with Overweight stance; earnings growth recession set to continue: We have trimmed our earnings estimates for ABL by 10/7/2% for CY17/18/19 post 3Q17 results and management call. The revision in estimates is based on slightly below-expected trend in NIMs, incorporation of Super Tax for CY17 and revised outlook of dividend income on bank’s equity portfolio. ABL’s equity portfolio accounts for 2% of bank’s PPP and have major concentration in energy and banks names. Dividend income from select names within IPPs and bank is likely to remain below par in CY17 & CY18. Overall, we believe ABL’s earnings are likely to drop 7% in CY18 due to lower yield on bond portfolio.

Two encouraging trends seen 9M17/3Q17: ABL appears to be emerging as a catch up play on at least two positive trends seen over the years in its peers;

The bank’s growth in low cost deposit in 9M is impressive and stands at 25% with overall deposit growth of 9% (vs industry deposit growth of 17%). This should allow ABL to improve the deposit mix (CA up to 36% in 9M17, up 200bp YoY) and provide a much-needed support to bank’s spreads and earnings. Trend in CA in 3Q defies the broader trends with peer banks, whereby CA have generally come off. ABL is expected to carry the momentum on CA in 4Q17 though at a slower pace. Branch expansion is likely remain a major driver for accumulation of low-cost deposit
Advances growth has picked up pace in 9M17 with 12% jump in total advances vs industry growth of 20%. Importantly, a major portion of growth has come from corporate segment which remain ABL’s forte. ABL is set to stick to low-risk, high quality assets at the cost of spreads. ABL’s asset quality is also high with NPL ratio of 5.75% - one of the lowest in the industry.
NIMs set to bottom out: The bottom for credit spreads for ABL seems on the cards with the pick-up in credit demand from both private and public sector. Spreads appears to have stabilized in the past two quarters at 35-40bps despite lean period in 3Q17. Overall, NIM are likely to bottom out at 3.3-3.4% (adjusted with OMO borrowing and investment) over the next two quarters as the impact of re-pricing of bonds wears out and cost of funding remains under control, thanks to addition in CA.

Focus on non-fund income is growing: Faced with competition in core areas, ABL is stepping away from its plain-vanilla business model. Of late, we see ABL’s growing focus on building Islamic banking franchise, going for international diversification of business, testing the water in consumer banking space and growing fee & commission income (remittance business, ADC, bancassurance). Contribution from new initiatives is likely to support bank’s non-fund income growth in coming years. ABL’s fee & commission as %age of total income stood at 9% in 2016, which is one of the lowest among its peers.

High CAR and asset quality: ABL’s capital adequacy at 20.84% (Highest Tier II, Tier I is second only to MCB among big banks) is impressive and shows room for balance sheet growth (leverage of 10x). High CAR and low leverage should allow ABL to maintain its cash payout policy.

Investment thesis-Upgraded to Overweight: Our twin concerns on ABL i.e. asset re-pricing and low credit spreads- seemed to have played out in ABL stock price with the stock underperforming the broader index by over 5% in 1-mth Furthermore we note encouraging progress on bank’s liability mix and advances growth in 9MCY17. We have lifted rating on the stock to Outperform from Neutral with revised TP of PKR93/sh. Recent price correction has opened up valuations with the stock trading at sub 1x book value (CY18E P/BV of 0.80) and providing D/Y of 8.6%, one of the highest among its peers.

Key risks to our call are; (I) imposition of Super Tax in CY18 (banks were required to pay additional 4% tax in CY17), (II) dividend income and stock prices of equity portfolio, (III) delay in interest rate reversal.

bma
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on November 28, 2017, 09:24:22 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Lower core income dents earning

Tuesday, 28 November 2017

By: WE Financial Services Limited
In our today's morning briefing we would discuss the performance of Allied Bank Limited (ABL) in 9MCY17.
Primarily owing to lower interest and non-interest income, the cumulative profit after taxation (PAT) of ABL fell by 20% YoY in 9MCY17 to Rs 9,735 million (EPS: Rs 8.50) versus a PAT of Rs 12,228 million (EPS: Rs 10.68) in 9MCY16.
This is due to lower net interest income on account of matured PIBs and drop in non-interest income's contribution. However, bank posted growth of 14% QoQ to Rs 3,261 million (EPS: Rs 2.85) from a PAT of Rs 2,872 million (EPS: Rs 2.51) in 2QCY17 owing to normalize effective taxation.
The corporate results were accompanied with a third interim cash dividend of Rs 1.75/share taking the total cash dividend announced in 9MCY17 to Rs 5.25/share
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on December 13, 2017, 08:00:09 PM
Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Overcoming the Hurdles

Wednesday, 13 December 2017

By: Arif Habib Limited
Upwards Revision in Valuation

After incorporating the latest accounts, we revise our target price upwards by 7% to PKR 110.0/share (earlier: PKR 102.8/share), providing an upside of 39% based on current prices. Our earnings estimates for CY17 clock in at PKR 10.65/share which is a downwards revision of 2% (earlier: PKR 10.90/share). The downwards revision in CY17 earnings comes on account of i) higher interest expense, and ii) suppression in NFI (Non-Funded Income) continued on the back of lower dividend income and slower growth in fee income. However, our target price has been revised upwards on the back of i) strength of recovery pipeline, and ii) impressive growth in low cost deposits.
Low Cost Deposits Continue Upwards Trajectory

The bank’s increasing focus on low cost deposits is providing significant support to the bottomline. During 9MCY17, the bank registered an impressive growth of 25% YoY in its nonremunerative current accounts. The proportion of current accounts to total deposits of the bank currently stands at a mighty level of 48.5% compared to 44.4% in SPLY. The average current accounts proportion for the top 5 banks currently stands at ~41%. Through focus on low cost deposits, the bank has been able to control its cost of deposits remarkably well, bringing it down to ~2.8% from an average of 4.3% during CY12-CY16 period. We project nonremunerative current deposits to clock in at PKR 309bn (24% higher YoY) and savings deposits to settle at PKR 247bn (16% higher YoY).
Recoveries Continue to Flow

The bank’s credit offtake has shown an impressive trend off late. During 9MCY17, the bank portrayed YTD growth of 14% with advances locking-in at PKR 374bn. The growth in advances has outperformed industry growth, which showed an uptick of 10% during the same period. We expect advances to clock in at PKR 385bn by the end of CY17, registering a growth of 17% YoY. With the growth in the advances portfolio, focus on quality lending has constantly been maintained. Infection of the bank in 9MCY17 currently stands at 4.8%, improving from 5.9% in SPLY. Going forward, we expect infection to settle at 4.4% by the end of CY17, given the management’s confidence in its recovery pipeline. The bank has booked a massive reversal of PKR 1,236mn in 9MCY17 compared to a reversal of PKR 229mn in 9MCY16. NPLs during 9MCY17 clocked in at PKR 18.8bn, decreasing by 9% YoY (9MCY16: PKR 20.7bn).
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on January 12, 2018, 11:11:59 AM
ABL: Earnings growth to outperform peers in 4Q2017, 'Buy' with TP of Rs118
January 12, 2018 (JS Research)

We expect Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) earnings to clock-in 13% YoY lower at Rs12.55bn (EPS: Rs10.96), owing to 75% YoY drop in Gain on Sale of Securities.
The bank's Net Interest Income (NII) decline is likely to clock-in at 4% YoY in 2017, where an impressive 14% YoY growth is anticipated in 4Q2017 (9M2017: -9% YoY) on the back of 20% YoY higher Advance during the year.
Hence in 4Q2017, we expect earnings to clock in at Rs2.82bn (EPS: Rs2.46), up 28% YoY, outperforming expected peers' growth of -8% YoY.
Alongside result, we expect the bank to announce a final cash dividend of Rs1.75/share, taking cumulative payout in 2017 to Rs7.0/share.
We reiterate our 'Buy' rating on ABL, with a potential upside of 28% on offer from our Target Price of Rs118, alongside an attractive D/Y of 7%.
The bank trades at a discount of 22% to sector's 2018F P/B of 1.3x, where its NIMs (3%) and potential Tier I ROE of 18% (5-year forward average), are both at par with the sector's average.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Koolfire on February 21, 2018, 08:06:21 PM
Dps 1.75

https://www.psx.com.pk/newsattachment/110469.pdf
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: MZ on February 21, 2018, 11:21:03 PM
Flash Note


Allied Bank Limited

Earnings Rise 43%YoY in 4Q2017 on Provisioning Reversals
·        Allied Bank Limited (ABL) declared 4Q2017 standalone earnings of PKR2.62/share (up 43%YoY), and a final dividend of 1.75/share; earnings were slightly below expectations while the dividend was in line. Full year earnings came in at PKR11.12/share (down 11%YoY) with PKR7.0/share in dividends.

·        Both Net Interest Income (NII) and total revenues were in line with expectations in 4Q2017. NII grew by 10.9%YoY due to asset growth, despite reduced yields on Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). Non – Interest Income (NFI) grew by 7.5%YoY in 4Q2017. Within NFI, FX income grew by 81%YoY while fee income decreased by 13.8%YoY. The increase in NFI was led by FX income growth and higher capital gains.

·        The bank also recorded a provisioning reversal of PKR467mn in 4Q2017, which was in line with expectations.

·        Operating expenses remained more or less flat in 4Q2017 with growth of 2.9%YoY. However this comes from a high base of 4Q2016 when operating expenses had swelled by 19%. Earnings slightly underperformed expectations primarily on this account (we expected operating expenses to drop 8%YoY).

·        The bank declared PKR1.75/share in dividends, taking full year dividends to PKR7.0/share, in line with expectations.

·        As of last close, ABL trades at 1.1x on a PBV basis. We have a Hold rating on the stock with a Dec-18 PT of PKR90/share, representing 1.5% total potential upside (including 7.3% leading dividend yield).
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 16, 2018, 11:50:11 AM
Allied Bank Limited: Allied Bank Limited’s (ABL) earnings are expected to decline 9.3%YoY in 1Q2018 to PKR 2.85/share. NII is expected to remain flat with a 0.7%YoY decline. Flattish growth in NII is due to muted asset growth at just 9%YoY (adjusted for the impact of higher borrowings to benefit from securities carry income). NFI is expected to rise 35.5%YoY in 1Q2018 primarily due to the seasonal effect of higher dividends from the bank’s equity portfolio. Resultantly total revenues are expected to rise 6.7%YoY. Earnings on the whole however are expected to fall despite higher revenues due to 16.2%YoY expected growth in operating expenses. The high growth in operating expenses is due to the low base effect of unusually low operating expense growth in 2017 at just 5%YoY.

We also expect ABL to declare a PKR1.75/share dividend, in line with the bank’s historical dividend policy.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 26, 2018, 04:22:55 PM
ABL: Key takeaways from 1Q2018 result conference call
April 26, 2018 (JS Research Beep)

The company witnessed 5% YoY growth in profitability, clocking in at Rs3.29 per share. For 1Q2018, ABL also announced dividend of Rs2 per share.
Earnings include one-time pension cost of Rs265mn, which was lower than peer average on account of lower number of pensioners being affected by the pension case.
Asset base growth limited to 3% YoY, as borrowings declined by 59% YoY. On the other hand, Deposit base increased by 12% YoY.
Deposit mix further improved as 28% YoY higher zero-cost deposits took CASA up to 81% (+54bps YoY).
On the asset front, deposit mobilization was seen in the Lending to Financial Institutions and Advances head. On the other hand, Investment declined during 1Q2018 on lower shorter tenor and longer tenor papers. ADR/IDR for ABL stands at 43%/50%, respectively.
The bank reiterated its strategy of increasing loan-book with keeping asset quality at priority. During 1Q2018, ABL's NPL stock sharply fell to Rs16.7bn, taking coverage ratio up to 97% and infection ratio down to 4%.
We keep our 'Buy' rating intact on ABL with a Target Price of Rs122. We expect the bank's sustainable Tier I ROE at 17%, where our base case incorporates decline in NIMs. We highlight a high Tier II CAR of 22.65% keeps ABL at an advantage over peers with respect to loan book expansion.
Key risks to our investment case are (1) delay in interest rate increase and (2) subdued asset growth.

Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on October 23, 2018, 01:09:46 PM
ABL: Earnings are expected to witness a 10% YoY uptick during 9MCY18

ABL is scheduled to announce its 9MCY18 financial result on October 24, 2018. We forecast the bank to post earnings of PKR 10.9bn (EPS: PKR 9.49) in 9MCY18, up 10% YoY. Higher interest expense by 13% YoY / 6% QoQ (primarily owing to higher interest expense on repo borrowing) kept the benefit of rate hike muted as NII is expected to increase 1% YoY / 3% QoQ. NFI is expected to increase 52% YoY  owing to PKR 2.1bn worth capital gains booked during 1HCY18. However we expect low capital gains during 3QCY18 which is expected to stress NFI by 5% QoQ. We expect net reversals to continue supporting the bank’s earnings with total reversals expected to clock in at PKR 1.2bn for 9MCY18. We expect a PKR 2.00/share payout for the quarter taking total dividend to PKR 6.00/share for 9MCY18.

AHL
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farooq Qadir on December 14, 2018, 06:20:01 PM

Allied Bank Limited (ABL): Lift to Buy on price movement, fundamentals remain strong

 BMA Capital Management Limited

 We upgrade our rating on Allied Bank Ltd (ABL) to Buy from  Neutral following 9% correction in stock price since early Nov’18. Our TP for  ABL stands at PKR115. ABL ticks almost all the boxes we consider important for  a good banking stock.

 The bank maintains strong asset quality, low PIB holding,  low cost deposit franchise and one of the highest Capital Adequacy Ratio among  big banks. 

 Bank’s ROE is set to follow an upward trend as the full  impact of policy rate hikes begins to reflect on bank’s NII. We expect  Tier-I/Tier-II ROE to jump from 13% in CY18E to 17% by CY20E. Our earnings  estimates leave upside room, primarily from lower than expected provisioning  cost. 

 Bank’s strategy to expand its branch network has started to  pay off with accumulation of low cost deposits (CASA jumped to 35% in 9M18, up  from 31% in Dec’16). This is crucial as it comes in an environment of higher  interest rate.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on February 11, 2019, 11:39:47 AM
ABL: Earnings forecasted to jump 4% YoY during CY18

The bank is expected to announce its CY18 result on February 13th, 2019. We forecast ABL to post earnings of PKR 13.5bn (PKR 11.76/share) during CY18, portraying an increase of 4% YoY. On a sequential basis, we expect a 17% QoQ surge in earnings with the bank expected to post PKR 3.4bn (PKR 2.93/share) during 4QCY18, with NII expected to accelerate 6% QoQ. Primary contributor to the surge in profitability for the bank during the year is a 26% YoY acceleration in NFI, with hefty capital gains booked in during 1H (PKR 2.2bn expected for the year, up ~3.4x YoY). Moreover the bank’s FX income is also expected to surge 93% YoY. Recovery pipeline has remained strong for the bank with net reversals expected to clock in at PKR 1.4bn. However the reversals are 29% lower YoY. We expect the bank to announce a cash payout of PKR 2.00/share for 4Q, taking total dividend for the year to PKR 8.00/share.
Title: Re: ABL -- Allied Bank Limited
Post by: Farzooq on April 23, 2019, 03:01:11 PM
ABL: Earnings forecasted to decline 47% YoY during 1QCY19

The bank is expected to announce its 1QCY19 result on April 25th, 2019. We forecast ABL to post earnings of PKR 2.0bn (PKR 1.77/share) during 1QCY19, portraying a decline of 47% YoY / 31% QoQ, primarily owing to higher effective taxation this quarter. Moreover lower capital gains this quarter and higher OPEX against SPLY (footprint expansion initiatives) also contribute to the downturn in earnings on a yearly basis. We highlight that there was a reversal of provision against WWF during 4QCY18 which will be absent this quarter therefore OPEX is likely to be higher QoQ. Albeit, the bank is expected to benefit from higher rates through higher NII (+11% YoY/+5% QoQ). We expect the bank to announce a cash payout of PKR 2.00/share for 1Q.