Author Topic: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan  (Read 164567 times)

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Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1939 on: October 23, 2013, 02:52:21 PM »

Result Preview
 
NBP: 9MCY13 EPS expected at PKR4.0
Result expectation
NBP is scheduled to announce its 9MCY13 results on October 25, 2013. We expect NBP to post PAT of PKR8.5bn (EPS: PKR4.0) for 9MCY13, down 28% YoY. 3QCY13 EPS is estimated at PKR1.2, down 30% YoY.
Increased focus on current account would yield a higher NII
NBP’s 1HCY13 demonstrated a shift in focus from savings deposits to current deposits. NBP also managed to reduce its high cost savings deposits by ~9pp QoQ during 2QCY13, which helped NBP earn a higher net interest income (NII) on YoY basis despite low interest rate while 2Q NIM clocked in at 4.0%, up 80bps QoQ. We expect this to continue to contribute to NBP’s net interest income (NII) during the 3QCY13 as well. We have therefore estimated NII to increase by 9% YoY. We have estimated NBP’s 3QCY13 CASA at 71%, while current and other low cost deposits are expected to clock in at 45% of the total deposits.
NFI is expected to remain weak
We expect NBP’s 3QCY13 non funded income to remain weak mainly owing to high base effect of higher capital gains during 3QCY12, which would pull down Non-funded income (NFI) growth during 3QCY13. Weak stock market performance and reversal in interest rate cycle shall be the primary contributors to NBP’s weak capital gains. Fee and commission income is expected to display a modest growth of 10% YoY as NBP remains uninventive in its fee and commission business.
NPL provisioning would dent earnings to some extent
As per SBP's relaxation during 1HCY13, NBP is required to completely provide for its NPLs to Azgard Nine Limited (ANL) and Agritech Limited (AGL) by the end of CY13. Poor performance of NBP’s Bangladesh operations resulted in a provisioning charge of PKR2.5bn during 2QCY13 and we expect NBP to provide for another PKR2.5bn during 3QCY13, up 58% YoY.
Investment outlook; Buy maintained
NBP is currently trading at attractive CY14E PBV and PER of 0.7x and 5.3x. Our Jun-14 PT of PKR60 offers a 15% upside together with the dividend yield of 11.5%, the latter being the highest in our banking space. BUY!

elixir

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1939 on: October 23, 2013, 02:52:21 PM »

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1940 on: October 23, 2013, 05:16:38 PM »
NBP 3Q EPS anticipated at PKR 1.71
National Bank Limited (NBP) has scheduled its board meeting on Oct 25’13 to announce its financial results for 3Q CY13. We anticipate the bank to post earnings of PKR 3.64bn (EPS: PKR 1.71) in 3Q CY13 against earnings of PKR 4.77bn (EPS: PKR 2.25), down by 24% YoY. Cumulative earnings of the bank in 9mo CY13 are expected to clock in at PKR 9.66bn (EPS: PKR 4.54) against PKR 12.97bn (EPS: PKR 6.10), depicting decline of 26%.

Higher provisioning expense to drag down earnings
Higher provisioning expense in CY13 is likely to keep the bottom line of the bank under pressure. In 3Q CY13, total provisioning expense is anticipated to increase by 40% due to high NPL accretion in previous quarters. As a result of higher provisioning booked in CY13, the coverage ratio of the bank improved to 85% in 1H CY13 against 74% in 1H CY12. As a result, we do not expect provisioning expense to increase in 3Q CY13 as NPL accretion has slowed down recently.

NII to increase by 6% YoY   
NII of the bank is anticipated to increase by 6% YoY in 3Q CY13 due to sharp increase in earning assets of the bank. Bank’s earning assets surged by 15% YoY in 3Q CY13. On QoQ basis, NII is expected to come down by 7% as SBP slashed discount rate by 50bps in Jun13.


Valuation
NBP is trading at a forward P/BV of 0.65x and our Dec14 TP of PKR 55/share offers a potential upside of 5%. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 11%. Buy!

Global Research

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1941 on: October 23, 2013, 05:26:02 PM »
NBP: 3QCY13 earnings PKR 1.6/share up by 16% QoQ
For National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) we see 3QCY13 earnings slightly notching up by 8% QoQ to PKR 1.6/share versus PKR 1.4/share, bringing the 9MCY13 cumulative EPS to PKR 4.5 compared to PKR 5.8 in 9MCY12.

Interest income to stay relatively unchanged
As of 2HCY13 the bank’s interest income has shielded off relatively well, considering the NIM squeeze. Overall Interest income declined by 5% YoY compared to an industry average of 8% YoY. For 3QCY13, we estimate a similar story going forward. Total interest income is likely to taper off by 1% to PKR 11,052mn.

Provisioning to square out overall interest gains
However, this came at a cost of higher provisioning expense, charging PKR 7.4bn in 2HCY13 provisioning expense compared to PKR 3.3bn in corresponding period last year. In 3QCY13, we estimate a provisioning charge of PKR 2.8bn, assuming an increased coverage ratio of 86% and slightly higher infection ratio of 13.1% during the quarter. In addition we estimate higher operating cost to further drag the bank’s profitability.

Recommendation

 we are currently in process of reviewing our full year earnings and valuation.

AHL

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1942 on: October 25, 2013, 02:00:54 PM »
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY13 financial results on October 25, 2013. We estimate earnings for the 3QCY13 of PKR4.2bn (EPS of PKR1.97) in contrast with preceding quarter earnings of PKR3.0bn (EPS of PKR1.41) up by 40%Q/Q. Lower earnings in the preceding quarters was largely attributed to greater loan loss provisions booked by the bank amounting to PKR7.4bn in contract with preceding full year provisioning of PKR8.0bn. We believe in the outgoing quarter total provision is likely to reduce to lower levels which is likely to boot earnings for the quarters. Furthermore contraction in core banking margins also contributed towards lower income.     

HMFS

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1943 on: October 25, 2013, 02:49:54 PM »

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1944 on: October 25, 2013, 03:58:54 PM »
NBP: 9M2013 EPS Rs2.94

NBP announced 9M2013 unconsolidated EPS of Rs2.94 which is down 50% compared to Rs5.91 in the same period last year.


Analysis reveals that 170% rise in provisions against NPLs cause the decline. In a an effort to have adequate provisions against portfolio risk, bank recorded general provisions of Rs4.0bn in 3Q2013 making total general provisions of Rs6.8bn in 9 months.


Further hit to the profits was provided by low banking spread scenario which averaged 6.26% in 9M2013 vs. 7.14% in 9M2012. During the period, NII declined by 8.3% to Rs28.3bn.


Alone in 3Q2013, NBP posted EPS of Rs0.11 which is significantly lower than the EPS of Rs1.4 in 2Q2013. 26% QoQ decline in NII to Rs8.3bn and 64% QoQ decline in gain on sale of securities to Rs633mn caused the reduction. However, some support to the earnings was provided by reversal of Rs 1.1bn on provisions against diminution in investments vs. expense of Rs275mn in last quarter.


On year on year basis, NBP earnings declined by 95% from Rs2.05 in 3Q2012.


At present levels, we have ‘Hold’ stance on NBP

topline

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1945 on: October 25, 2013, 04:13:34 PM »
AKD Research - Off the Analyst's Desk October 25, 2013
_______________________________________________
NBP: 9MCY13 Result Review (Below Expectations)
On a consolidated basis, NBP has posted NPAT of just PkR324mn (EPS: PkR0.16) in 3QCY13 primarily due to high general provisions extending to the international portfolio. As a result, 9MCY13 earnings came in at PkR7.21bn (EPS: PkR3.41) vs. NPAT of PkR13.4bn (EPS: PkR6.34) in 9MCY12, translating into a sharp 46%YoY decline.
Key highlights of 9MCY13 results included: 1) 8%YoY decline in NII, 2) ~2.4x YoY increase in total provisions, 3) 15%YoY non-interest income growth and 4) 11%YoY increase in non-interest expenses.
Today’s results round off a disappointing six months for NBP with Bangladesh operations provisions starting from 2QCY13. That said, we understand that the Bangladesh operations may now be fully provided for, which should lead to normalized provisioning levels going forward. NBP trades at a CY14F P/B of 0.69x, P/E of 7.4x and D/Y of 10.5% where our TP of PkR49/share implies a Reduce stance.

Offline valor123

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1946 on: October 25, 2013, 05:14:15 PM »
I saw it at lower lock, with trade of 5 million and more than 2 million shares being on bid, waiting to be picked. and then I saw all of bid shares picked and lock broke, though closed at lower lock but more than 17 million shares traded, three quarters of them at or near the lower lock price, what does this indicate? accumulation? still strong after such dismal results....

Offline 007

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1947 on: October 25, 2013, 05:56:17 PM »
40 per soocha dobara buy ka

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1948 on: October 25, 2013, 06:35:17 PM »
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) reported its 9M2013 results with a 49%YoY decline in the bottom-line to stand at PKR6.2bn (EPS: PKR2.94) compared to PKR12.57bn (EPS: PKR5.91) on unconsolidated basis. Moreover the bank’s earnings during outgoing quarter fell to PKR225.3mn (EPS: PKR0.11) compared to PKR4,371.6mn (EPS: PKR2.05)

The earnings were below the broad consensus on account of a general provision worth PKR4.0bn (EPS impact of PKR1.90) realized in the outgoing quarter which is over and above PKR3.0bn provided in 2Q2013. This made 9M2013 total provision against NPL to stand at PKR11.97bn

The additional provisions were somewhat diluted by a PKR1.08bn reversal in investment values

Thus, NII for the 9M2013 period stood at PKR16.36bn, down by handsome 37%YoY compared to PKR25.9bn in same period last year. Moreover alone in 3Q2013, the NII fell by as much as 54%YoY to PKR3.78bn

In the non-markup head, major takeaways are:

1.       A PKR0.92bn (13%YoY) increase in fee, commission and brokerage income during 9M2013 to PKR7.89bn

2.       Approx PKR0.86bn (34%YoY) higher gain on sale of investments

3.       On the expense front, the admin expenditure increased by a 9%YoY to PKR26bn compared to PKR23.9bn in same period last year

We are currently re-visiting our investment case and will revert back to our investors with updated stock valuations

BMA

Offline jamalakhter

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1949 on: October 25, 2013, 10:13:58 PM »
 :@        third quater  result is nothing but an attemt to mask corruption and misappropriation,it is a much greater fraud than  BOP. :@

Online SBM

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1950 on: October 26, 2013, 12:14:02 AM »
:@        third quater  result is nothing but an attemt to mask corruption and misappropriation,it is a much greater fraud than  BOP. :@

 :o

I hate waking up.

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1951 on: October 26, 2013, 04:31:45 AM »
NBP''s EPS down by 50 percent for 9M2013

The National Bank of Pakistan announced 9M2013 unconsolidated earning per share (EPS) of Rs 2.94, which is down 50 percent as compared to Rs 5.91 EPS announced for the same period last year, an analysis by Topline Securities said on Friday. It reveals that a 170 percent rise in provisions against NPLs caused the decline.

In an effort to have adequate provisions against portfolio risk, the bank recorded general provisions of Rs 4.0 billion in 3Q2013 making total general provisions of Rs 6.8 billion in nine months, it added. Further hit to the profits was provided by low banking spread scenario which averaged 6.26 percent in 9M2013 vs. 7.14 percent in 9M2012. During the period, NII declined by 8.3 percent to Rs 28.3 billion, it said.

Alone in 3Q2013, NBP posted EPS of Rs 0.11 which is significantly lower than the EPS of Rs 1.4 in 2Q2013. A 26 percent QoQ decline in NII to Rs 8.3 billion and 64 percent QoQ decline in gain on sale of securities to Rs 633 million caused the reduction. However, some support to the earnings was provided by reversal of Rs 1.1 billion on provisions against diminution in investments vs. expense of Rs 275 million in the last quarter, it said. On year on year basis, NBP earnings declined by 95 percent from Rs 2.05 in 3Q2012, it said.

Offline 007

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1952 on: October 26, 2013, 05:47:01 AM »
privitize the bank

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1953 on: October 26, 2013, 11:39:18 AM »
NBP: 9M2013 EPS stood at Rs2.94, down 48%YoY

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) announced surprisingly and significantly weak 3Q2013 result today, posting a PAT of Rs225mn (EPS: Rs0.11), down 95%YoY and 92%QoQ. Consequently 9M2013 earnings clocked in at Rs6.2bn (EPS: Rs2.94), down 48%YoY and only 46% of our full year 2013E earnings. The result came in well below our 9M2013 EPS expectation of Rs5.18 on account of sharply higher provisions and write offs.

As anticipated the bank Net Interest Income (NII) remained under pressure and declined by 15%YoY and 26%QoQ in 3Q2013. Similar to 2Q2013, NBP booked higher provisions and write off of Rs4.5bn in 3Q which put an additional dent on the bottom line. Further pressure came in from lower non interest income (down 4%YoY and 30%QoQ) and higher operating expenses (up 22%YoY and 3%QoQ).

At current levels the stock is trading at 2013E PE and PBV of 8.3x and 0.8x, respectively. We maintain our sell call on the stock given lower earnings outlook and limited triggers for the core business.

JS Research

Offline jamalakhter

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1954 on: October 26, 2013, 12:05:31 PM »
GOOD SUGESSION , such intitutes r sonami for our  stock maket

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1955 on: October 27, 2013, 12:04:39 PM »
 ;)
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 12:06:10 PM by MZ »

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1956 on: October 27, 2013, 12:05:14 PM »
National Bank chairman keen to become president of bank

LAHORE - So far 50 candidates have applied for the post of president of the National Bank of Pakistan, including the sitting chairman of the Bank Muneer Kamal, who is Masters degree holder in business administration while a grade three officer of the Bank of Punjab having qualification of MA in English and with the age of just 34 years, is also keen to head one of the leading commercial banks, which is the largest in public sector by assets and deposits.
As per documents available with The Nation, several in-service and most of retired officers of the NBP- a public sector bank which is constantly registering huge drop in profit due to massive loans’ write-offs- are also desirous of taking the challenge of the leading role of NBP president, including Kausar Iqbal Malik (SEVP of NBP), Shahida Nasreen Abbasi (Ex-EVP NBP), Fayyaz Rabbani Khan (Ex-SEVP NBP), Muhammad Sharif Chaudhary (Ex-EVP NBP), Imran Bakhsh Baloch (SEVP NBP), Zia Ullah Khan (SEVP NBP ), Syed Ahmed Iqbal Ashraf (Ex-SEVP NBP), Tariq Jamali (SEVP NBP) and Mirza Abrar Baig (SEVP NBP).
Other candidates who wished to be president of this Bank belong to several other noted banks and financial institutions, including Summit Bank, Bank of Punjab, HBL, UBL, Allied Bank Limited, KASB Bank, ZTBL, Waeela Microfinance Limited, Saudi Pak Industrial and Agricultural Investment Company, NIB Bank, Pakistan Industrial and Common Leasing, United International Group, Adamjee Insurance, Standard Chartered Bank, Bank of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Bank Al Bilad, Kuwait Investment, Masheq Bank and Bank of Khyber.
Interestingly, despite the fact that they don’t have qualification related to banking or finance, some candidates have also applied for this big post. For example, Ms Zubia Hanif, who is masters in English Literature, having age of only 34 has shown interest of leading this public sector bank in spite of restriction of minimum age of 51 for this job by the administration.
Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education Mirpur Khas chairman Shafiq Ahmed Khan, who is double MA as well as holding degree of LLB, is also desirous of quitting education sector and jumping into the field of baking, despite having no qualification in this regard.
Sources said that the government had appointed Muneer Kamal as chairman of the National Bank of Pakistan’s board of directors in Sept. He also remained chairman of Karachi Stock Exchange and is amongst one of the directors of the KASB Bank. He is one of Pakistan’s top bankers with over 30 years experience in banking and finance sector.
According banking sector officials, in the past, the position of the board chairmanship and president was held by one person; the case of former president of the NBP, Syed Ali Raza, being an example.
Muneer started his career at Citibank and held several senior positions including Director, Head of Country Public Sector & Financial Institutions, President & CEO Faysal Bank Limited.
He wants to take charge of NBP at a time when profits are going down and general health of the bank is not dynamic. As per latest figures, the bank’s total non performing loans remained at the same level as last year. NPLs to gross advances ratio improved 12.2 percent as compare to 14.9 percent in 2011.
The names of all 50 candidates are as under: Syed Asif Ali, Zafar Sheikh, Zubia Hanif, Kausar Iqbal Malik, Munawwar Ali, Maood Karim Shikh, Nadim Karamat, Agha Ali Imran, Arbab Dilawar, Shahid Nasreen, Muhammad Abbas, Khusro Iqbal, Shahid Murtaza, Sh Amanullah, Fayyaz Rabbani, Ghazanfar Azam, Mansur Khan, M Sharif Ch, Kamaluddin Khan, Muneer Kamal, Imran Bakhsh, Shafiq Khan, Noor Akram, Imdad Ali, Moazzam Khan, Liaqat Durrani, Ziaullah, Khalid Siddiq, Ahmed Iqbal, Sabir Ali, Mirza Abrar, Khalid Ahmed, Fazlur Rehman, Ashfaq Tareen, Naseer Farooqi, Mansoor Ahmed, Musaddiq Ijaz, Mohsin Aziz, Shehryar, Sohail Yunus, Farooque Alam, Munirul Haq, Aman Aziz and Mustafa Qadri.

Offline MZ

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Re: NBP -- National Bank of Pakistan
« Reply #1957 on: October 28, 2013, 08:00:16 AM »
NBP endures a tough time

Hands down, NBP is the only bank in the top-tier which has been sincerely focusing on its core duty of lending to the private sector off late. This lender’s Advances-to-Deposit Ratio (ADR) stands at 57 percent-–the highest among the top five banks.

However, something unusual might have happened in the 2Q CY13 which made NBP to adopt a belt and braces strategy. During 2Q CY13, NBP held down private sector lending and parked its funds in investments.

A massive jump of over 400 percent in provisioning expense during the similar period shows that NBP has had a tough time lending to private sector and hence it held its horses. During 2Q CY13, NBP’s ADR dropped from 70 percent in 1Q CY13 to 57 percent in 2Q CY13.

Perhaps the bank might have continued the restrictive lending stance in 3Q CY13 too, which coupled with a rate-cut of 50 basis points in late 2Q CY13, wrecked havoc on NBP’s top line which slid by 10 percent quarter on quarter in 3Q CY13.

More drastic than the top line plunge was the fact NBP couldn’t propel its low-cost deposits, which exposed the bottom line to its weak top line.

While the 3Q CY13 balance sheet is not available to determine the recent break-up of deposits, the 2Q CY13 accounts show that while current deposits boasted a growth of 21 percent quarter on quarter in 2Q CY13, saving deposits plunged by 8 percent quarter on quarter. The focus on current deposits is a positive sign; however, the drop in saving deposits took NBP’s CASA to 58 percent in 2Q CY13 from 68 percent in 1Q CY13.

The spillover effect is felt in the mark-up expense in 3Q CY13 which drove up by 4 percent quarter on quarter, plopping down the spread ratio to 36 percent in 3Q CY13 from 44 percent in the previous quarter.

A little respite was provided by provisioning expense which dropped by 27 percent quarter on quarter. However, this can be attributed to higher base-effect as provisioning expense had surged radically in the 2Q CY13.

A drop in non-mark-up income mainly owing to inadequate gains on the sale of securities further pushed the bottom line in the pickle, which ended up eroding by 89 percent quarter on quarter.

While quarter-on-quarter analysis might have some seasonal caveats, year-on-year comparisons depict a much clearer picture of the bank’s performance. Year-on-year tally shows that NBP’s spread ratio has improved from 39 percent in 9M CY12 to 41 percent in 9M CY13. Perhaps, low interest rate this year compared to last year and the bank’s enhanced focus on current accounts this year versus last year backed this improvement. Besides, tall provisioning expense during 9M CY13 compared to 9M CY12 might have improved bank’s coverage ratio, but dented its bottom line.

Going forward, NBP’s focus on current deposits will bear fruit as SBP has recently linked minimum deposit rate (MDR) on saving deposits to discount rate. Owing to inflation expectations of 11-12 percent by the end of current fiscal year, discount rate is expected to see a hike in the upcoming monetary policy which will be followed by a hike in MDR, rendering saving deposits costly. The top line is also expected to perk up owing to rate hikes; however, only if NBP reverts to its earlier advances-led asset mix instead of jumping on the bandwagon of investing in government securities.

====================================================================
NATIONAL BANK OF PAKISTAN (CONSOLIDATED P&L)
====================================================================
Rs (mn)                                 3QCY13     2QCY13        Chg
====================================================================
Markup Earned                           23,342     25,901       -10%
Markup Expenses                         14,982     14,467         4%
Net Markup Income                        8,361     11,434       -27%
Provisioning/(Reversal)                  4,539      6,228       -27%
Net Markup Income after provisions       3,821      5,206       -27%
Non Mark-up/Interest Income              5,466      7,634       -28%
Operating Revenues                       9,287     12,840       -28%
Non Mark-up/Interest Expenses            9,105      9,036         1%
Profit Before Taxation                     182      3,804       -95%
Taxation                                   157        729       -79%
Profit After Taxation                      339      3,075       -89%
EPS (Rs.)                                 0.16       1.45       -89%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: KSE Notice
====================================================================

Offline aliraza

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